Rates & Barrels - Deals Are Happening!

Episode Date: July 28, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss the big news of the week in anticipation of a busy weekend of waiver-wire pickups as Tuesday's Trade Deadline draws closer. Rundown 0:33 Lucas Giolito & Reynaldo López to Angels 7:44 Amed Rosario to the Dodgers; Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians 16:39 Carlos Santana to the Brewers 22:44 David Roberts to the Marlins 24:31 Marco Luciano's ROS 'Would You Rathers?' 31:33 Favorite Stashes In Hopes of Post-Deadline Spike in Value 35:10 Matt Walner's Surge in Playing Time 39:32 Weekly Pitching Outlook (Jose Urquidy, Johnny Cueto) 45:53 Somewhat Available Two-Start Pitchers 51:55 Streaming Considerations 55:34 Bridging the Gap From Jordan Hicks to Ryan Helsley's Return from the IL Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Check out these offers from our ad partners.... Get 25% off your order when you go to jamesallen.com and use code RATES! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. I'm here with Eno Saris doing the thing we usually do on Fridays, taking a look back at the big news of the week so far and taking a look forward to some potential waiver wire additions for the upcoming weekend. Eno, we had a chance to talk about a few trades on the 3-0 show that went up on Thursday afternoon, but we didn't really dig into the fantasy implications of those trades. Now, Lucas Gilito and Ronaldo Lopez going to the Angels, their values don't change a lot from a fantasy perspective other than to say, you know, going from a playoff contending team or from a non-contending team to a playoff team, Lopez's path to holds, maybe saves if anything happens to Carlos Estevez, that improves,

and Giolito's win probability goes up on a given start. Now, as far as the park factors go, which would apply more to Giolito given that he's up on a given start. Now, as far as the park factors go, which would apply more to Giolito, given that he's a starter instead of a reliever, maybe there's a slight upgrade there. I know the cell, as it used to be called, the ballpark, the White Sox playing, guaranteed right field, I think it's its proper name now. I think it's one of the parks that changes the most by the weather.

Yeah, that's like the fourth generation blah, blah corporate name. But it's like the park that in my head, they all change over the course of the season, cool temps, warm temps, hot temps, all that. But that one seems like it's got some sharper shifts than some of the other parks out there. All that is to say, how much do you think Giolito's value changes, if at all,

leaving the south side of Chicago and going into Anaheim? Well, you know, Angel Stadium is also surprisingly hitter-friendly, I think. You know, I think, I used to think of it as more, almost like neutral, pitcher-friendly,

but they changed the walls. And so even the three, I think they changed the walls like two years ago. So even the three-year park factors may not capture completely how hitter-friendly the stadium in Anaheim is. So I would say that the park factors are almost a wash, maybe a little bit better. Schedule factors, you know, one thing that I didn't bring up,

because I didn't want to be too much of a debbie downer that's already my role but uh you know in the 30 show we were talking about the how smart it was for the angels to go for it and the angels schedule is surprisingly hard it is in fact harder by strength of schedule on fan graphs than most of the AL East. And it's crazy. Their non-conference or however you say it, non-divisional opponents are all awful. So and this relates to Di Alito because he gets the Blue Jays today. That's not easy.

That's not an easy interleague play opponent. That's not interleague play but inter divisional non-divisional opponent and then the next one is the braves oh thank you very much oh thank you we get the braves at home that's great then you get divisional guys like the mariners but then giants out of uh in interleague that's not the easiest interleague opponent to get and then the astros and angels in the division that's uh tough and then they finish uh with the rays ouch uh the reds surprisingly ouch uh and then mets phillies uh a's orioles guardians i mean i just don't think this is a very easy schedule that the the the patsies on the schedule include i guess the tigers

and the a's and that's it so there's a little bit of a minefield there i would think i would say that the like schedule wise gilito is slight downgrade maybe i mean his next two starts are blue jays and braves so if the schedule gets tougher and the team situation gets better, it's a wash. Value's about the same. Overall ratios go up. Win probability goes up. So it's all even.

Yeah. I mean, the next one after that is Giants. That's okay. Then Astros. That's tough. Rays. That's not easy. Mets, I guess you could call that.

That'll be interesting. I mean, the Mets are kind of up and down, but it is in New York, and that's nice because that's a pitcher's stadium. The other implications of the trade, of course, would be the players going back the other way to the White Sox, more for keeper and dynasty purposes. I think Edgar Caro has a much better chance of being a starting catcher,

given what the White Sox don't have in their organization right now. Very young for the level of AA, a very aggressive promotion, skipping him over high entirely this year. So the step back at the plate shouldn't be that much of a surprise, given how aggressively the Angels pushed him. And then Kai Busch, I mean, I think he's a little quicker to the big leagues if the White Sox are looking for innings in the back of that rotation. Probably more for 2024 as opposed to someone we'd see down the stretch this season. I don't know if either of those guys have ridiculous ceilings, but in deep, deep dynasty leagues, they're probably a case at least to consider rostering Carroll if your league forces you to start two catchers.

Yeah, Carroll could have very nice upside considering he's a switch hitting catcher with a 6% swing strike rate and a 17% walk rate. If Carroll gets the sort of batted ball oomph back that he had in 2020, 2020 2022 uh then i think uh you know there's there's some real upside there the downside is of course as keith law pointed out he's not there defensively so how long will he have to stay in the big leagues? This is why I always talk about how catchers debut later. How long will this 20-year-old Edgar Carrero have to stay in the

minor leagues to prove that he's good enough defensively? We saw it this year with Andy Rodriguez being ready with the bat and having to basically spend until late July just to kind of refine what people already thought. Is Andy Rodriguez a better catcher than Edgar Guerrero? Yes. And so we already saw that some people that are considered better defensive catchers than Edgar Guerrero had to spend a long time sort of in catcher finishing school.

So I would guess that we see neither of these guys next year, which means um you know a good trade i guess for the white socks but does not help them be competitive in 2024 no no most likely does not help them much next season but does long term give them some some boost in their organization i think the the other part of any trade is looking to see who backfills in this case who's the starter that gets to stay in the rotation? I think Tukey Toussaint gets to stick. Mike Clevenger's on the IL right now, but Toussaint would be the fifth starter.

Now that Giolito's gone, I at one point really liked Tukey as a prospect. He's 27 now. It was a long time ago. The bigger concern in the more recent past has been an elevated walk rate. I mean, last year it was only 25 in the third innings of the big league level, 19 walks. This year, 31 innings, 22 walks. So I don't think you can trust him in a starting role until we see some signs of that control improving. But he looks like the guy sort of winning on the other side as a result of Giolito's departure. I think this trade that we talked about from a real-life perspective

that's more of a, hey, good, the Dodgers have a better shortstop and the Guardians take the flyer on Noah Syndergaard might be a little more fun from a fantasy perspective because I think it creates a spot for one of the other infielders in Cleveland to play. Now, when you look at the depth that the Guardians have, for now, it looks like freeman gets a bump but we have to imagine brian rocchio who has very little left to prove at triple a is going to also see a bump in playing time in the final two months of the season

is rocchio up not yet not yet no he i saw he hit a home run this week, and he's still playing down there. The first start was awarded to none other than Gabriel Arias, who we've talked about on this pod. Because he hits the ball hard and does not make contact, so he is not the normal Cleveland Guardians prospect. Projected for a 230 batting average and a 135 iso despite a 114 max ev and a six percent barrel rate i think that six percent barrel rate which has held steady now for 230 plate appearances not necessarily enough sample but is also kind of pales in comparison to his max ev so here's a guy who's not accessing his raw power and you know 60 raw power on fan graphs 40 to 50 game power is how i'd still describe it even though

he's now had a little bit of a bite of the apple in the major leagues i think it's a long shot for Arias, honestly. And I don't know if it's going to happen. It's just, those are really big swing strike rates. He's being patient, but the patience is only giving him, is only making more strikeouts. And it's not amazing patience in terms of not swinging at balls. It's just not swinging. And so it's like not swinging. It's overly patient. I don't know if aggression would help him. I don't know what would help him, but something's missing in this approach. Years ago, like two years ago, I was on board with Tyler Freeman as the low K rate, get to the big leagues, put a ton of balls in play, be a good source of average, a good source of OBP, and then

if speed or a little bit of power, something went with it, he'd end up being a sneaky, good, deep league fantasy player. So I'm curious to see if anything changes with him. But the more we've seen Tyler Freeman in the big leagues, the less power we've seen. The less power we've seen, the hard hit rate's up this year at 40.6%.

But we're at a guy that's got 136 batted ball events between this season and last, and he has one barrel. One barrel is a great name for a brewery. It's not a great nickname for a hitter. Yeah. It's only so far you can take not striking

out. Had a big online tussle with some hitting gurus, hitting coaches and independent hitting coaches about, you know, was not making an out a good cue to give major league hitters. And was that better than do damage? And I would submit to you one freeman as someone who does not make outs in

terms of strikeouts and is not also a major league asset i have another angle to this swap i'm beginning to wonder if a med rosario in some like 12 team leagues might be a little underappreciated right now because he leaves a Cleveland lineup that had a team WRC plus of 94. He goes to the Dodgers, who are fourth in the league at 115. The difference in terms of runs scored for these two teams this year, the Dodgers have plated 570 runs as a team. I believe that is second in the league. Cleveland's at 434. So just having that gives Rosario,

if the skills stay the same, a little bit of a boost in terms of counting stats. There's always the possibility of an adjustment, and he was an underperformer for the season thus far. So perhaps a little regression there, but they are not necessarily going to play him every single day. So that's the thing that could work against him. I think that going from a bad team where you played all the time and it

exposed your flaws to go into a good team that's only going to use you um you know basically against lefties is my guess uh is uh not necessarily a good overall move from it rosario i think he's good in dfs probably um and but in in sort of daily leagues where I could swap him in and out uh which I think you'll need to do uh you would need to do that even if they used him more than just against lefties because it's the Dodgers and they don't play almost anyone every day um so I think daily leagues I think I'd be looking at 15 plus. And it would have to be kind of deeper 15. And I don't think these sort of weekly lineup 15-team leagues that I'm necessarily – I might even drop them.

Interesting. And I'm guessing with Noah Syndergaard, we're talking AL-only appeal at most. And even there, I mean, his first start as a member of the guardians is scheduled for Monday. That's going to be against Houston on the road. The Astros just got Altuve and Jordan Alvarez back. So, so scared. I don't think I would willingly throw Syndergaard out there.

What's the second part of that double tap? Does it matter? Can I tell you that it's the a's and they're playing at the bottom of the ocean like now it doesn't matter um you could just hope for some some magic in the first one i hope that uh your don is you know knocking the rust off i guess uh yeah he'll be he'll be getting the rust knocked off everything between now and then too. So you're giving him a few days of runway before he gets to see Syndergaard.

I've kind of got this bad attitude with Noah Syndergaard now where if the Dodgers couldn't fix him, I'm not sure anybody can, right? We saw it last year with the Angels. The results weren't that bad, but the stuff just wasn't as good. It hasn't come back for him post injuries.

It's not even close to the stuff that made Noah Syndergaard one of the better pitchers in the game a half decade ago. It wasn't that long ago. He was really good. I'm actually wondering if we're getting to the point now where clearly the Guardians need to nurse him through the season just to get innings. They got a lot of young starters. If they're going to be a playoff team, they would want to have their young starters available later on Bieber's out right now so that's like why did they do it but I think the next time we talk about Noah Syndergaard as a fantasy relevant player if we ever get to that point again at least for mixed leagues it might be because they decided at some

point to move him to the bullpen and that might even happen this year in Cleveland that might be somewhere else a season or two from now yeah I mean he's trying something right now that he hasn't uh before which is uh basically living off the cutter as a fastball and uh you know especially against left-handers but um I wonder if there's a radical realignment of pitch mix where they're like you need to sneak your four seam and sinker by uh and live with the cutter the curve the slider and the change and he has above our edge command so i wonder a little bit like a savali-esque approach even that i mean if okay so you think about where that, I mean, okay, so you think about

where Aaron Savali is today and you think about the meandering path. It took a while for Savali to make that work. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, so it's like, okay, so this is good. He's making some adjustments. He's trying something different. He knows he's not the power pitcher that he was when he broke into the league anymore. If that's good,

recognizing the problem is the first step towards actually making it better better it could take him all of what's left of this season and the winter to get comfortable enough with that approach to even make it work for him and then we're talking about someone if he's like civali the k rate might still be somewhat low and you're still probably playing the matchups pretty carefully with him which is never something we had to do back when Syndergaard was the guy that earned the nickname Thor. Yeah, and even by Stuff Plus, Savaldi's breaking balls are better than Noah Syndergaard's. Noah Syndergaard doesn't have a single pitch that rates above average by Stuff Plus right now. Yeah, I mean, hopefully he can find some way to make it work,

but I just don't see anything there to be optimistic about at this point. Carlos Santana, the Brewers broke while we were recording the 3-0 show. From a fantasy perspective, slight bumps here in terms of, I think the park factor would be a little better at American Family Field, so that makes him more appealing. I think playing time-wise, I don't think Santana's losing playing time compared to what he was getting for a share in Pittsburgh. I actually think this is bad news, probably for Jesse Winker, perhaps also for Rowdy Tellez.

Once those guys are back from the IL, I can see Winker falling off the roster completely or just being a left handed bench bat. But you're talking about a guy with very little defensive value who just has not performed this year or last year. So we're almost at two seasons of Jesse Winker not being the player he was before. So his spot seems to be in danger to me. And with Rowdy, it's like Rowdy didn't look like himself before going on the IL either. So I don't think the Brewers are necessarily expecting to come back and be that power threat

that he was a season ago. Yeah, I think there's probably an open competition for DH. Carlos Santana, I was rude to him on the 3-0 show. And part of that is just that I wasn't looking at the defensive stats I normally look at. So the defensive stats that I normally look at all say that Santana is actually still a plus defensive first baseman. By projections, by what he's done,

he has not been even an average first baseman offensively since 2019. So even if he has been hot recently, I wouldn't expect him to be much more than maybe a league average player, which, you know, first base, the bar is set higher. However, you know, the Brewers, I think, would take another league average bat,

especially if he plays good defense at first. And so they didn't spend that much to get him. They got an upgrade on the infield. And I think DH is just a question mark for now. When Rowdy comes back, I personally like Rowdy, but I have to admit, yes, he'd gone into the tank a little bit before he got hurt. And he's coming off kind of a gruesome ripped nail off the bed injury that compounded with his other injury. So I hope that's not long-term ramifications.

I can't imagine. Once the nail starts growing back, you're all right. But at the same time, he wasn't right before. So I would still, long story short, I think Rowdy will take that DH job. I think Winker will either fall off the roster or be a bench bat. 17 stitches removed from the fractured finger of Rowdy Tellez earlier this week. That's the new injury, right?

Yeah, that was the new injury. It was a forearm injury that put him on the IL in the first place. Gruesome. It got stuck in the wall or something. I mean, it's just awful. I also wonder what is left for this team. I think Urias comes up and Anderson is hurt. Brian Anderson is hurt, I believe.

So maybe when they get fully healthy, it's Brian Anderson at third, Willie Adamas at short, Urias at second, Santana at first, Christian obviously in left. I think Weimer has solidified. Urias at second, Santana at first, Christian obviously in left. I think Weimer has solidified. He's pretty much the everyday center fielder, right? And then a little bit of an open competition, platoon style, Freelake, Taylor, Winker, Tellez for right field and DH.

Do you think there's another move in there? I think they have to make one more. You're right. I think Urias is really important to them. They need him to come back and be solid because they've been relying so heavily on a bunch of the guys we discussed earlier in the week. And getting a second baseman at the trade deadline is not super easy. No,

I think they're okay with that being a defensive punt position. I think the player that I'd be worried about playing time wise in the final two months of the season is actually Weimer, even though he's a great defensive center fielder, because Freelick can play center field too. So once you get Brian Anderson back, if you have Anderson and Rios on the roster together, you may have some days where you're going to play Anderson and Wright, you're going to play Rios at third, and you're going to play Bryce Terang for his glove at second base.

That could happen some days too. And Weimer, despite hitting the ball hard, has contact problems and is a right-hander. But that whole crew though, Anderson, Urias, they're all righties. Weimer, all three of those guys are righties. Freelick's a lefty, and Terang's a lefty. Well, see, yeah, I think it could be then a... And also, if you're thinking about what's available on the market,

I think despite the market just having a paucity of good offensive players in general, it's a little bit easier to get a right fielder than a second baseman. So you could put Freelick and Weimer into a platoon in center and acquire a right fielder than a second baseman so uh you could put freelick and weimer into a platoon and center and acquire a right fielder is it easier to get a third baseman than a second baseman because then you can just play a re-s at second all the time play a third baseman that you acquired and make anderson more of an extra guy yeah make him kind of a semi-regular in the outfield

they've had a lot of a lot of players in the mix and i think they have to find a way to consolidate between now and tuesday just to make things a little less complicated candelario from uh from the um there's not a lot but there is candelario from the nationals at third base yeah saw some saw some Nolan Arenado rumors bouncing around MLB Network as well. I don't think Tony Kemp helps. No. Tony Kemp adds to their problem. They've got enough guys. They need

to start narrowing it down a little bit and upgrading some spots and getting a little more production. Yeah, Ken Lurie would be like an obvious starter. You know, he could just start for them. You know, Nick could just start for them. You know, Nick Senzel. No. Doesn't help. The other situation that shifted overnight Thursday,

David Robertson was traded to Miami, which seems like some bad news for A.J. Puck and or Tanner Scott. And we expect more fallout from the Mets bullpen. Brooks Raley, I think, picked up a save on Thursday but both Raley and Adam Adovino could end up on contending rosters so how do you see the Marlins managing the bullpen now that they've added an established veteran to that back-end mix I think when you go and get a guy like that uh you say thanks to your in-house guys and you put you put the new guy uh in at closer you got a proven

closer with the capital p and the capital c you've been going along with tanner scott who has poor command and aj puck who's a young guy with uh with great stuff that seems to me like a a great uh eighth inning combo lefty righty boom boom lots of velo lots of stuff and then david robertson comes in and won't walk anybody probably won't give up homers um and uh you know there's a there's a game where it's like often you win it in the seventh and eighth so you're still gonna need scott and puck uh from a real life baseball. And then sometimes the closer is just the guy who doesn't lose the game. You know? That seems to me like a good description

of what David Robertson can do for you. Not lose the game. Yeah, they need it. Every game matters right now for the Marlins, given the spot they're in, trying to find their way into the postseason. A couple of interesting players went back to the Mets in that deal.

Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. I talk more about them on Project Prospect next week once we get a chance to recap all the prospects on the move in these deadline deals. We talked earlier in the week about the Marco Luciano promotion. I think we should kick this to a would-you-rather

situation as the weekend approaches. Would you rather for the rest of this season have Javier Baez or Marco Luciano? I just wish I could just see the lineup card this week for the entire week. Because the Giants do this thing, you know, where they could use him just against lefties. I think the risk there is enough for me to say

I might rather any of the veterans you're going to put in front of me. Okay, that's fair. So then what about younger guys? What about Ezekiel Tovar, whose role seems pretty stable at the Rockies and whose performance has been better in the last eight weeks than it was really in the first eight weeks, which was really a prolonged, slow start for a guy that moved pretty aggressively to their system. I'm taking Tovar, and I'm even taking Tovar

for another reason other than just the same reason I just gave, which is everyday stability of role and so on. I think there's some adjustments in the rearview mirror for Tovar a little bit. We've had really bad stretches for him, and this is a better stretch.

I don't think it's just bad ball luck. I think a little bit of just figuring out how to make his aggression work for him. But I think just generally generally in terms of career, I'm taking Luciano over Tovar because as much as Luciano misses the ball

and has swing and miss issues, he hits the ball harder than Tovar. And I don't think he has the same really hyper-aggressive approach that leads to this sort of thing in terms of where his strikeouts are coming from. In other words, he's shown just through walk rate, Luciano

has, that he has a better eye at the plate than Tovar. Yeah, and that O-swing percentage for Tovar now, we're talking about two-thirds of a season's worth of plate appearances, 402 plate appearances, 42.4%.4 percent is the swing percentage so far so pretty aggressive there 8.1 percent barrel rate probably a little higher than we thought coming into the year i don't think anybody looked at 12.5 that's where i feel a little bit more positive about tovar than i had in the past yeah like he's he's coming along somewhat nicely

great defensive shortstop's gonna stay at the position of course too what about tovar than i had in the past yeah like he's he's coming along somewhat nicely great defensive shortstop's gonna stay at the position of course too what about tovar versus baez for the rest of the year just breaking it made me do that one no tovar versus bias not luciano oh no tovar versus bias because in both cases it's like well playing time looks pretty safe and average obp might be light they both have power and speed to I think maybe Tovar, dude. He's past him. This is more of the Javier Baez it doesn't look like it's coming back. Turned 31 in December.

I mean, he cut his strikeout which is kind of amazing to me. And he cut his whiff rate. Those things are kind of amazing to me, but he did it totally at the cost of his barrel rate. And he's still swinging at pitches outside the zone 49 percent of the time more than ever more more than ever it's so weird by as i could see tovar having a bias-esque career less raw power for sure though that's that's for

me like the and that's and that's a big deal because if you take some raw power off of bias's career it's a lot less exciting but less less swing and miss yeah i think even though there's there's some chase there it's less chase already although it looks more like right which is amazing to say and and yeah less swing and miss although at the major league level tovar's swing and miss has been pretty poor yeah given his age i think we could still reasonably expect at least some improvement in that regard all right so really luciano i think what i'm gathering here is you're if you're bidding on him this weekend it's probably in a 15 team league or a league with some kind of keeper element or for some reason he wasn't previously roster element he's already

been owned he should be but if you're in, a keeper element, he's already been owned. He should be. But if you're in like a keep eight sort of league or something. I think for redrafts, I'm doing a make good bid. If I have $1,000 FAB, I'm talking about 10, 11, 13. Am I going past 20, 25? I don't know that I would because you just – Yes, if you can wait until Sunday, you're going to get three days more information if he starts every day till Sunday and you don't hear any

more about Tim Anderson or Paul DeYoung then that number creeps up even for me you know even for me that's a little bit skeptical about how he's going to be used. I was just thinking who do they have on the schedule this weekend? They have the Red Sox and the righty. Cutter Crawford, James Paxton and Nick Pavetta. So two righties and a lefty. Alright so you're going to learn a lot on Saturday. No you're going to learn a lot on Saturday. No, you're going to learn a lot today. Today and Sunday.

Today and Sunday. It's good to get two bikes at the Apple lineup-wise against righties before the fabric. Casey Schmidt also hurt his finger in the game last night. So I would assume that Luciano starts tonight unless Crawford comes off the IL. Now, yeah, if Crawford comes off the IL, which he might today, maybe they just IL Casey Schmidt or send him down. That's a notch in Luciano's belt. However, if Crawford starts tonight, they could still be using Luciano very

sparingly. Get DH for them. If they believe in the bat, wouldn't they be willing to DH him? Yeah, but that's like over Peterson against lefties. Yeah, or you got to put Peterson in the outfield. I don't want to put Peterson in the outfield. You don't want to, but then someone has to sit that you wouldn't normally sit. You have to sit Matos, play Stremski in center, and then put Peterson on the field.

That would be the series of adjustments. That would be awful outfield defense. But what if Logan Webb's pitching? Are you more willing to do that? See, this is why the playing time on a micro level could still trick us a little bit.

You're thinking more like three out of four or something? Yeah. Today it's okay, and then next time, next Sunday he sits against a righty, because it's not a ground ball heavy righty or something. Yeah. Just thinking about it, I don't know. It's a potential mess.

So tread carefully with Luciano in short-term situations, even though the long-term appeal is very, very high. I wanted to ask you this. We talked about a lot of potential stashes on our show on Wednesday, and I wanted you to narrow it down to a few favorites, two, three favorites, more like priority ads potentially for the weekend, since the trades that we need for these players to have more playing time might not happen until after fab runs.

Make it the benefit of getting that information before Sunday night. But chances are some of these guys will still be blocked when the weekend comes to a close. I landed on three that I really like. Jonathan Aranda. I think the Rays move him. Hayden Wesneski. I think I made it pretty clear at the end of the episode on Wednesday. Can I guess your last one? Yeah, go ahead. You can guess my last one. Mark Vientos. Hayden Wesneski I think I made it pretty clear at the end of the episode on Wednesday of the pitchers

can I guess your last one? yeah go ahead you can guess my last one Mark Vientos no I do like Vientos but I decided on Michael Tolia instead because he's already getting the opportunity and he could probably continue to play even if they rocky it up and don't

trade Krohn away Krohn's hurt right now I think they see enough in Tolia where they're gonna let him play so I think he was my Rocky it up and don't trade Krohn away. Krohn's hurt right now. I think they see enough in Tolio. They're going to let him play. So I think he was my, my third of the group. If you can only add one,

it's Wisniewski. Pitching is hard to find. The situation's good. We like his stuff. All the boxes are ticked. Is there anybody else that we discussed on Wednesday that you think should be at or near the top of the list where available? I think Mark Vandos, I want to throw out there.

I think they're going to just give him a run. I think they're going to trade Mark Kanha and Tommy Pham if they can. Although they did lose maybe a trade partner in the Dodgers who have gotten their two right-handers and decided on more positional versatility than just oomph with the bat. I doubt that they'd do another one because it starts getting a little hectic on the roster in terms of who you're going to drop off the roster

in order to accommodate a Pham or a Canna. I do think that Marc Vandos is burned. I do think that Mark Vandals is burned the reliever in Chicago that I keep forgetting his name why do I do that? It's so weird Julian Merriweather? No, the other Chicago Gregory Santos

I think he's inching his way towards that role and Carlos Hernandez Santos. I think he's inching his way towards that role. And Carlos Hernandez. So I tend to think that the most obvious gainers at the deadline are the

relievers who are setting up for teams that trade their closers. The only reason that I didn't put a Met on there is that i'm just not sure where they stop with the trading of the relievers um i'd say it's brooks railing now uh but he might be gone himself in which case i think it's drew smith but it just gets a little bit harder to navigate a bullpen you know when you don't know how many guys will trade there's a little bit of that with the White Sox, too.

Yeah. I feel I'm erring on the side of it being a lot, given the number of rentals in that group of relievers, but definitely a spot where someone could emerge to be the sole closer, and they might not be so amazingly bad that they still generate save chances over the final two months of the season, too. So that's part of the appeal of keeping an eye there. That's more Mets than White So it's really both of those teams they're not going to be those teams are not

they're not going to be royals bad or a's bad they're going to be a notch or two above that yeah the other bat that i think is kind of interesting unrelated to the wednesday show is matt walner his playing time is way up right now for the twins and i think the thing that really caught my eye the last time I looked at Matt Walner was that he did a pretty good job of cutting down on some of his swing and miss. That was the huge concern when you look at his profile. You could see the power. It jumps off the page for you. But he was always a guy that was striking out 30 plus percent of the time. He's at least in the high 20s now.

You can live with that. He draws walks he doesn't chase a ton of pitches outside the zone and the barrel rate is really good he's up to 13.6 percent over 127 play appearances that's combining last season and this season so i think he does enough damage to live in the higher range for the k rate right this is this is all working rooker-esque yeah he's rooker-esque but he's left-handed so he ends up on the big side of platoon and i could see him just running with that share of the of the job the rest of the way in minnesota the i think i agree with you the he's been so good that a Gleeman has just written an article

about how Trevor Larnak should be traded. I could see that because you don't need both of those guys. They're very similar. Very, very similar players. I would agree with that assessment. I don't know. I don't know. Larnak barrels the ball well too.

Lower max EV, higher strikeout rate right now, but I think they have similar high strikeout rates. Maybe Wallner's better on D. I think me figuring that out is not going to help. Looking at the numbers is not going to help. It's something about maybe they just think that Wallner is a better corner outfielder and otherwise they're similar and Wallner's playing better now. I mean, they did just choose Wallner over Larnach because walner stayed up and larnach went down

and that's a big decision that they just made i have a team in devil's rejects where i have both walner and larnach and i traded for larnach going into the season thinking you know this was his chance we picked up walner just in case it wasn't larnak's time and now walner is going to go into our lineup uh next week instead of larnak instead of larnak so there's a little bit of a healthy competition i guess going on there and maybe one of them ends up somewhere else uh in full-time uh playing I still like both of them as your kind of prototypical three-two outcome slugger types. Yeah, you're chasing power.

A little bit better in OBP leagues. Yeah, you're chasing power, though. I think Matt Wallner definitely can help you in that regard. Look at the schedule for next week. I see six games on the schedule. I mean, trades this time of year especially can always shake things up, but five of those matchups currently

projected to be against righties. So should start 80 plus percent of the time next week. And the following week, opening series only has one lefty out of the three games that are mapped out as well. So a nice little run of playing time after nine consecutive starts entering Friday. Might be an interesting

thing in AL only and deeper leagues to go semi-aggressive on Walner, knowing that it might cost you a trade deadline, guy, if you are betting against the trade deadline. Especially if you are in sort of a mono-league situation. I would bet against the trade deadline really creating a lot of everyday players. I think that teams, bad teams that trade away players will use the option even though i like vientos i think they might use that

to look at a couple players you know and kind of uh you know not give anyone just you know the full time and and just generally teams aren't giving everybody full time anymore. So I just sort of doubt that there's going to be a big trade. Maybe Cody Bellinger off the Cubs creates a big opening. Maybe Tim Anderson or Jonathan India could create a big opening. But I think if you're looking for a position player and you're debating, should I save this money for the trade deadline creating a player, or should I go after Wallner, I think maybe Wallner is the better bet. Probably won't take a ton in terms of fab where available either.

So I think that's part of the appeal with Matt Wallner right now as well. Let's talk about some pitchers. I saw Jose Urquidy is making some progress in his rehab assignment through 53 pitches earlier this week. That was Tuesday at AA Corpus Christi. So probably at least one more rehab start before he's back. And the results this year before he went on the I.L., those first six starts really weren't that good. The ERA crept up above five. The whip was bad,

but the overall track record for Rikidi, really over the last two seasons, was so good that I tend to believe he'll come back and give them some quality innings in the back of that rotation, given some of the issues we've had finding pitchers, knowing that the Astros are right there in the thick of the race in the AL West and are a likely playoff team this year. I like the idea of stashing Urquidy now,

even if he needs one more week before he's ready to be activated by the Astros. He's got a 4-8 ERA projection in our model. Talk yourself out of believing in your own model. It's fun. Okay, if I am going to talk myself out of uh believing in your own model it's fun okay if i am going to talk myself out of it i will say that the model still actually likes uh his forcing fastball slider and curveball as average-ish uh to above average-ish pitches and does not like the change up and yet he is a change up first guy um and so maybe there's something that it's missing there.

It's also just interesting that he has 370 innings pitched where not a damn person liked him, it feels like. And he has a.385 ERA with a.113 rip over those 370 innings pitched in his career. So there has always been a disconnect between what people think of Jose Urquidy and what he's capable of doing. And maybe that alone is enough for me

to pick him up in deeper leagues. Is it enough for me to pick him up and start him in week one? I have a rule about guys coming back off the IL and whether or not I'd start them. If they are a no-doubt sort of top 25 arm uh that I would start all the time anyway yeah I'll start them coming off the IL Jose or Kitty no I'm not starting you off the IL if he pitched again like Sunday would be regular rest for another rehab

start that would bring him back late next week against the Yankees on the road. Yeah, not starting that. I wouldn't throw him there. And then the start after that would be on the road against the Orioles. We talked about how much that park has changed earlier in the week. That might be in a deeper league something you do as your last pitcher in. But there is still some matchup-related concern at the higher end, especially. You put him up against a good lineup on the road, those are the spots where you're really thinking twice about using him. And that comes from someone who has become an Erquidy believer over time.

I've just looked at him and said, there might be more here. The swinging strike rate was up again this year. Even compared to what we saw in previous years, I kept looking at his profile and thinking, he's got to be a low 20% K-rate guy at the worst, and maybe like a mid-20% K-rate guy if it all clicks, because the command is so good and the arsenal is so deep. So I haven't given up on Urquidy. Finding one more level, the health situation this year has just complicated it

and probably reduced the chances of it actually happening. Yeah. That Orioles start though is kind of a little bit fascinating. If you believe in his changeup, he is kind of a changeup first guy, a righty with a good changeup in, in Baltimore negates a little bit of that lefty power. Baltimore plays a little bit more friendly to lefty power now with Mount

Baltimore out there. and so if the left field dimensions help him sort of stymie the right handed power a little bit and the change up helps him stymie left handed power maybe he has a decent start there so it could be an interesting stash for that start or you might even be able to wait until after the Yankees Maybe he has a decent start there. So it could be an interesting stash for that start. You might even be able to wait until after the Yankees start because I can't imagine that'll be a great one. No, I think that's one you want to be really careful with. Baltimore, we'll see how the Yankee one goes

before we decide if we're activating him against the Orioles on the road. Johnny Cueto, back in the rotation for the Marlins. He's only made a couple of turns in their rotation so far because he's missed a lot of time with an injury. But the Velo's up. He's up more than a tick from where he was last year. 92-6 on the fastlins. He's only made a couple of turns in their rotation so far because he's missed a lot of time in that injury. But the Velo's up. He's up more than a tick from where he was last year. 92-6 on the fastball. It's his best fastball Velo since 2015.

He's 37 now. I think the appeal is mostly the home park. But do you think we've slightly overlooked Johnny Cueto as someone that might be okay for some deeper league matchup-based usage? Or are we just trying to find an excuse to use a player that we kind of like just because he's fun?

We liked him when he was in his peak. I mean, there's still this sort of, you know, he's got lots of pitches. He controls the running game really well. There's still these things that we don't know how to uh really like nail down in the numbers you know uh their their effect on their the shimmy or whatever like he keeps people off of balance he has lots of pitches he has good command of those lots of

pitches and he controls the running game so it just game. So it doesn't add up to the kind of guy that'll get blown out of the water as much as it seems like someone who might give up three runs through five with five strikeouts and maybe get the win. I'm imagining that later on this season, the middle of September, the Brewers host the Marlins,

a four-game series. And I'm imagining those two teams. Quato shuts them down. Like Quato versus Julio Teran in the middle of September for two teams jockeying for playoff spots. That'll be the weirdest day. And they'll combine for like 12 scoreless innings that day with like 15 strikeouts yeah let's put that one on the board i think we might actually see that i look through the rotowire projected starters grid again with

the usual caveats in place, times two, because, look, everything could change as teams make moves in these next 72, 96 hours. But the two-star pitchers that I think are the most interesting and somewhat available, at least in 12-team leagues, I saw Ryan Nelson, who's got two on the road against the Giants and Twins. Ben Lively, who's got the Cubs on the road and the Nats at home. Jose Quintana, if he's not traded, at Kansas City at Baltimore. And Johan Oviedo versus the Tigers

and on the road against the Brewers. So out of those four, how would you consider stacking them up if you're chasing volume and trying to just get as many innings as possible into one of your spots this week. What were the Ryan Nelson ones?

At the Giants and at the Twins. I don't think he's ever seen the Twins. I'm going to take him as my favorite. He's underwhelmed in terms of strikeout rate. He has underperformed his Stuff Plus,

and in fact, that Stuff Plus has been dropping a little bit over the course of the season, leaving him with just an above, basically a 100 Stuff Plus fastball and a 109 curveball. And yet, some of his better games have come lately. It reminds me a little bit of Clark Schmidt, who I just had in a piece today, where he said, you know, my job is not to necessarily maximize stuff. Plus, my job is, you know, to get out and, you know, and not necessarily think like a reliever where I'm just out there throwing as hard as I can, throwing my best stuff,

you know, every inning until they take me out. It's more to think about how can I get through six innings. And I think there's a little bit of that with Ryan Nelson. Plus, the matchups, I like them. I like them better. I think the Ben Lively matchups bother me a little bit. Washington is not a good offense, but that'll be in Cincinnati. At Chicago is just, I think, very volatile in terms

of how Wrigley's going to play that day. I don't like Oviedo as a pitcher. It doesn't work for me. So Quintana might be second, where it's too bad he's not at home but at KC at Baltimore is a pretty good combination yeah I mean those are solid in terms of parks so I think Quintana at least avoids being last on the list I think I'm worried about Ryan Nelson the most

based on the matchups I think I'd put Nelson last of the bunch I'm probably going Oviedo up top. You don't like at SF? I don't for Nelson, and I think it's because it's not the park. It's the lineup. It's the team. It's the team.

I feel like they have a way of breaking down a guy like Ryan Nelson and hanging five or six runs on him and making me look stupid. Ryan Nelson and hanging five or six runs on him and making me look stupid. That's been the, the mark of this giants team going back to the great Austin Gomber. Who's your number one incident. I think I'm OV8. Oh, I think I'm playing for the strikeouts here.

I think I'm worried about Katana getting dealt and missing out on at least one of those. Milwaukee is, is just, is just a, Oh, it's such a weird one. It's at Milwaukee. And my first, my first impression is just like,

you know, oh, don't pitch someone there. Right. Milwaukee's a tough place. But then their offense is bad. I think it's the, I trust the Ks are going to be there. So if I'm going to take on risk, and I feel like you're taking on risk with anyone, at least Oviedo is probably going to project

for the most strikeouts of this bunch. And with that first start being such a good one against the Tigers, that sort of adds a little extra juice to it. So I'll go Oviedo, Quintana, because if he gets traded, it might be after the Royals start, then he might miss the Orioles.

He might make his debut against someone easier. I'll go Oviedo, Quintana. I'm going to reverse order that list of oviedo one cantana two lively three nelson four lively it's a little bit like the colin ray situation in milwaukee where you he leaves goes to goes to kbo for a little bit comes back and is having some success and the thing that really surprises me with lively is his k rate to this point, 22.1%. That's pretty surprising. He has a home run problem, but he's usually had pretty good control looking at most of his minor league

stops years ago and what he's done, you know, across the board. It's not usually a high walk rate, so he can live with that. And since one of those starts on the road, it's not terrible. Usually it's more pitcher friendly at Wrigley than not.

You can get burned. You could start him in the wind to be blowing out. But I think I'm okay with that. And I think with the Nats being a team that will move some players before the deadline, that lineups a bit weaker when they get to Great American Ballpark. So I think that lively two steps actually somewhat usable. I'll stick with Nelson though. Nelson,

Quintana, Oviedo. Lively. Lively does have an interesting fastball in that it's been called an invisible in terms of he hides the ball really well. One thing that's interesting is that he's been

featuring the slider a lot more since he's come back uh from uh kbo and uh stuff plus says it's a 62 stuff plus slider which is like the lowest number i've seen for a slider so i don't know what that's about it's also super slow like an 80 mile an hour slider there's there are some good ones like that but it's it's on the rarer side it's a weird one to be sure looking at these streamers with just one start and shallow leagues cutter crawford if he's available i think he stands out for me in this group i saw jameson tyon still out there a lot of places he gets the reds toughup, but he gets them at home. Drew Smiley would catch the same matchup

if he's not traded, but just like Marcus Stroman, I think Smiley could be on the move at some point here in the next few days. We've got Graham Ashcraft home against the Nats. Brandon Williamson on the road against the Cubs. If they're still in the rotation, Adrian Hauser and Colin Ray. I have more turns on the schedule.

You have Hauser getting the Nats on the schedule you have hauser when getting the gnats on the road ray would get the pirates at home brandon woodruff making some progress his rehab though so he could pop up back in that rotation pretty soon and then yanni chirinos who's now a member of the braves could see the angels that's an nl only league play if that i think yanni unfortunately just doesn't miss enough. So of the other names for streaming considerations that anybody sort of jump out to you as a viable option. Ashcroft's been featuring the sinker a little more since he came back, which I think is just good because he's got the two-pitch problem.

So that one sort of is interesting to me. Tyon is interesting to me as a stash, but I don't like that matchup. So it could be one where I pick up a tie on for the next week if I like that. And what would the next week be for him at the Mets? Yeah. And maybe the second one at the Jays, depending on how they want to play it, because they have an off day in the middle of that week. They're off on that Thursday,

so they can throw him on regular rest and just use four starters. They may want to throw him on regular rest just because they want to get him back right. I mean, that's the work, because he's under contract for next year. So that's an interesting one where a tie-on, I wouldn't pick up for this week, but for the next one, in terms of just picking up a player off this

that I think might get off the streamer list, the names are Ashcraft, Tyon, and Crawford. And I think Crawford's pretty close to not being a streamer. Yeah, it's like some 12s he's available, but I think he should be picked up in those leagues and probably kept beyond this turn. At Seattle, it's not even necessarily a team you're picking on, but it's just that Crawford looks pretty solid. Yeah, yeah. Crawford looks solid enough to maybe not

even call a streamer, yes. Tyone would be someone that I would almost stream for the next week. Ashcraft is someone that just is so rough that at home versus Washington is not necessarily one i'd want to maybe start but if you have a place on your roster for like a speculation uh pickup you know if he does well in that game and you know throws the sinker a little bit and you know is figuring out a way to really uh turn that lineup over then um then you may use him in his next start, particularly away from home.

Yeah, I'm on the same group that you are here. I think the only other name that made some sense to me was Williamson because I think at Wrigley, I'm erring on the side of that being a good situation park-wise. It's the day after the deadline. If the Cubs sell, it could be a reduced lineup that day, but there's no guarantee that they'd do it. They're close enough to just hang around

or kind of play the middle if they want to and not necessarily be an easy matchup for these final two months of the season. We talked a lot about the possible. The Reds could collapse. They're only five and a half games out of the division. The Reds could collapse, and the Brewers still don't really have a good offense.

No, they have more work to do if they're going to go ahead and really take control of the nl central we talked about some of the closers that were likely to end up in save situations on the episode on wednesday one team we didn't talk about was the cardinals because jordan hicks you know by most accounts is keeping the seat warm until Ryan Helsley comes back. But Helsley's on the 60-day IL for at least another 10 days or so. I think it'd be the earliest he could return based on the timing of that move. The Rangers are among the teams interested in Hicks. And Hicks is actually a free agent this winter, so he's just a rental reliever.

But do you think there is a place like Texas or anywhere else where Hicks could go and continue to get saves over the final two months? And if we don't see Ryan Helsley come back right away in the weeks after the deadline, is there anybody else you like to backfill in that Cardinals pen once Hicks is out of the picture? Well, I would assume Gallegos. More Giovanni Gallegos, sure. Yeah, I would assume Gallegos if Hels Giovanni Gallegos, sure. Yeah, I would assume Gallegos if Helzi's not ready, but I think Helzi's even though he's moved to the 60 man,

I think he's I heard that the update before that was positive and he's throwing in, so I would assume that he might just be a week away and that he's just been out so long that they used the roster spot and moved him to the 60 man.

So I do think Helsey will still get saves, but I think Gallegos is an interesting stash. And then Hicks, where would he close? It's funny, if the Rangers are interested in him, I could actually see him and Chapman, not necessarily platooning,

but both getting saves. Yeah, just both being part of playing some matchups and having close to 50% shares of that closer role. That's definitely a possibility. I was thinking about it too. I'm like, what teams are good? He would close for the D-backs. The D-backs would be one.

Is there anybody else that's that good where they could just take anyone like that and just plug them right in? That they would buy a closer like Hicks and put him in as closer? Yeah, or buy any other closers available and just let them close. Because the fear is always that your closer

is going to become a setup guy at the deadline. That's usually the fear. With the Yankees? I mean, they put Holmes back in, but they've played around with that. Yeah, it's at least unsettling enough where I wouldn't snap drop someone who got traded into that bullpen right now.

I'd let it play out for at least a week before making that decision if I could. I think I would, yeah. How about the Braves? There's an interesting... The Braves have a good bullpen. But who's their closer? Is it Iglesias?

It's still Iglesias. The usage for their bullpen... He's like one of the worst relievers of the back-end relievers, I feel like. Yeah, his ratios are the worst they've been since 2019. So ERA is close to four. Whip's a little bit rough right now. Underlying skills are still pretty solid. 37-9 strikeout to walk. We've is close to 4. Whip's a little bit rough right now. Underlying skills are still pretty solid.

37-9 strikeout to walk. We've talked about him before as a closer with more pitches where you would think he can age a bit more gracefully than most. I'm not that worried about Iglesias, but they have plenty of alternatives if they decide they want

to shuffle up the order. AJ Minter would both close over Iglesias for me, I think. Although Minter is wild. Yeah. And hurt right now. I guess he's hurt. Yeah. I saw Kirby Yates out there in that Brewers series.

He picked up one of the saves. Had a really nice battle to actually get that save done. I don't know if he's got quite the same stuff that he had a few years ago. Yates. But he's done it before. That's always one of those things that nudges guys back into the role.

Fastball's not all the way back. Who's going to lead this Atlanta team in saves the rest of the way? I think it's still Rysell Iglesias, even if he's sharing a few more opportunities than we expected going into the season. That's an interesting place where if Hicks landed, he could maybe close. Or maybe they would become more of a committee if they added one more high-powered arm like that. And Joey Mendez has been a rock in terms of creating holds.

He's the holds guy. The Stuff Plus loves him. The K-BB loves him. He's the holds guy. The Stuff Plus loves him. The K-BB loves him. He's been really good for them. I don't know what holds them back. Maybe that's what they want. They want him to be really good there as a holds guy and as a setup guy, basically.

Yeah, a sharp add that they made going back to this past winter. Yeah, it wasn't that long ago that Joe made going back to this past winter. Yeah. It wasn't that long ago that Joe Jimenez was added to the mix in Atlanta. We are going to go on our way out the door or a reminder. You can get a subscription to the athletic for $2 a month for the first year at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels. Find,

you know, on Twitter at, you know, Sarah's find me at Derek van Riper. That's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening