Rates & Barrels - Dodgers, Astros Wins Tighten Up LCS Series

Episode Date: October 20, 2021

Eno, Britt & DVR discuss the Dodgers' Game 3 awakening, uncertainty about Atlanta's bullpen game plans for Game 4, a late surge by the Astros in Boston, and what teams might be learning from this Postseason. Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at 50% off for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Watch the show *Live* on weekdays at 11:30a ET/8:30a PT on YouTube and subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70, celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. Derek Van Ryper, Rich Aroli, the King of Waffles, Eno Saris here with you on this Wednesday. Both series, the NLCS and the ALCS, got a lot more interesting on Tuesday. We, of course, will dig into that and we'll look ahead to today's two-game slate. Love these two-game slates, as I mentioned on Tuesday's show. Let's start with the Dodgers springing back to

life in game three. I think Dave Roberts summed up the mood perfectly prior to the Cody Bellinger three-run homer, quote, we were dead in the water. I think they were because everything was going Atlanta's way. There was a pretty bad sequence in the fourth inning that allowed Atlanta to rally the way they did. I will share frustration with Walker Buehler about that. It didn't end up mattering in the end, but it looked like it was going to have a pretty big impact on the game at the time. So now that the Dodgers are alive and kicking again, how excited are we about the remainder of this series? We had a feeling things could be like this. And this was the game they had to get with Buehler over Morton, too.

So, Eno, first, your thoughts on the Dodgers figuring it out yesterday. I was really surprised that Morton outpitched Buehler. But if you look at some of the underlying stats, Buehler has his spin has been down. His max velocity has been down. I think he's fatigued. He had a big innings jump from last year to this year. He's not a kid anymore, but it was a big innings jump. And I think he's a little bit gassed.

Morton hit a higher velocity than Buehler, which is weird because we've seen Buehler hit 99s and 100s in the past. But once that happened, I was like, oh, crap. Because my whole theory of the game was Buehler's going to outpitch Morton and the Dodgers will be ahead when the players are out. And when that wasn't true and the bats just kind of looked lackluster, and then really the way the 7th, 8th, and 9th was going, And the bats just kind of looked lackluster. And then really the way the seventh, eighth, and ninth was going,

I saw Bellinger's name and I was just like, I don't know. Him against Luke Jackson is not a good matchup. Luke Jackson throws a riding fastball high in the zone and a breaking ball at the knees. And Bellinger has just been having a hard time with that combo this year uh but uh he hit a ball at his nipples i mean he hit a ball at his neck that was uh that was a pretty impressive thing and andy mccullough has a whole piece today just about asking cody how did you do that and cody not really knowing how so anyway it was a big moment and I do think things

change a little bit here because Urias against the bullpen is another I think that's a big advantage for the Dodgers and I think they're in a tie up the game at the top of the series tonight yeah it's interesting because I'm gonna hit you guys with like an interesting stat so teams that um that are ahead two to one in the best of seven have gone on to win the series 101 of 143 times 71 however only one team has erased that 30 deficit which is the 2004 red sox very famously so the dodgers chances uh you kind of have to look at it now is probably glass half full because they're in that two to one category not that three and oh i was having this conversation yesterday with a baseball person and you know it it kind of piggybacks off what you said with bueller being tired we wondered all

year last year how the 60 game season was going to affect these guys and i think you're starting to see that across the sport because not only have they gotten through 162 game season which they didn't have those workloads last year now they're in the postseason where arms are usually dead and they're usually on fumes and so i think that's happening not just to the dodgers but to a lot of these teams right now you're seeing injury with lance macullers you're seeing what happened with the rays last series just totally running out of steam um and I wonder if it's I'm certain it's probably a confluence of factors but I'm wondering how much that plays into what we're seeing here in this postseason and we touched on this yesterday the fact that there's only been two quality starts

I'm in Boston we put that game on in maybe the third inning I want to say in the the media work room and Walker Buehler was like not in the game. And I was like, wait, what? Like they're already in their bullpen? And we talked about this yesterday, how Buehler was so good. And, you know, Morton's been good in the playoffs, but, you know, you guys kind of said, we got to go with Buehler.

He's going to be better. And I just wonder if these guys are just straight up tired at this point in time. I think there's probably a lot of that this time. I never thought I'd hear Max Scherzer said his arm was dead. Yeah. That's what made me really think about that is he's a guy who doesn't say that kind of stuff.

Yeah. He wants to pitch game seven of the world series when he can't move his neck or turn to the side. So I started to kind of wonder, he's a guy who prepares to the upteenth degree, right? So if he's saying that, what do you think all these other guys feel like?

This is always, as you guys know, this is always a time where you're tired. But based on last year, and I'm curious, and maybe we can dive into this this offseason, but how much did that 60-game season impact what we're seeing this year? There's already a record in soft-coach-to-injuries. How much did that impact these guys in these arms? You know, I think it's really interesting,, because if you're watching a post-season, you're always, I think across the sport being like, what can I learn from this post-season? Like what, what strategy do I have to implement next year to, to win? Like the Red Sox are winning or whatever, you know? And the thing that I could come up with was maybe, like, the Astros should have piggybacked Greinke and Javier in September

so that both of them were up to, like, 60 pitches, right? Because I keep looking at Tanner Houck and Nick Pavetta and saying, you know, I think there was probably at least one person in the Red Sox organization that was like, I don't know if one or both of these guys is going to be on the playoff roster, right? I don't think they trusted Pavetta totally. He was like one of the last guys on the roster. He's been huge, and I think part of why he's been huge

is he has 80 pitches in his bag. You know, like he can go that far and so i think you know the rays might have made a small mistake with uh trading hill or and or leaving yarbrough off the roster i think the dodgers uh could have done some piggybacking if they weren't necessarily going for the division so hard so you know there's do you need to win to get in uh factors there's uh do you have six or seven guys that you can stretch out to 60 uh pitches um and then there's how much of this year is just a weird anomaly based on the fact that you know we had the short season last year and all these guys are gassed you know maybe renke in a regular season could go more than 40. By the way, he went 37.

So we were right. He went 37. That's all we had. He just wanted four innings. He went four outs. Yeah, right. Well, he went 37 pitches, right? They were open for an efficient four innings, I guess.

But we're leaving the rundown here. I can sense anxiety from DVR. He looks very serene. Yeah, I'm fine. We're supposed to be talking about Dodgers, right? Order doesn't matter. We're just having a nice conversation. I think the thing that really jumps off the page to me, too,

just seeing it, this is why I love the Savant box scores, seeing the hard-hit balls against Walker Bueller in a three- and two-thirds-inning outing. I mean, fire emojis everywhere. And of course, it's not good to see those in the pitcher's column. Nine hard-hit balls against Walker Buehler. I know that bad call got in his head. You could see how he was reacting to it.

Things spiraled a bit on him there. I think there was only one out when that happened, though. So he wasn't out of the inning with that. It's a little bit different than what happened in the ninth inning in the ALCS game with Evaldi, where that pitch, that looked like a strike. I know the strike zone boxes on TV are not perfect. That's why the overhead view. No, after the game, the scorecard said it was a strike two.

Yeah, I think there were. Two-two curveball. I mean, it was high. It was high. But it was supposedly in the strike zone. The overhead cam was perfect, though, for it, because the ball came into the area of the plate and crossed the plate in the strike zone. It was a clear strike.

One bit that I know about human umpires versus robot umpires is that robot umpires will call that pitch a strike much more often, and that human umpires don't call the pitch that comes back to the strike zone as often as they should. So front door two-seamers, pitches that are balls that come back to strike very late, those don't get called very often. So yes, he made a mistake, but that's also a pitch that doesn't get called very often by a human umpire. Yeah, it's just unfortunate given the implications that eventually had.

But I mean, Charlie Morton struggled with walks in a huge way. He had six walks in this. Four of them, I think, were in the second inning alone, and he still managed to go five. Like wobbling like that but keeping your balance and getting through that many innings for this team with the Braves facing a bullpen game today, that was huge. And I don't really know what the script was going to be for Atlanta

if Morton left that game in the second inning or left that game in the third, right? There's so much more going in their favor pitching-wise simply because Morton was able to right the ship, even though they lost game three. The fact that he was able to get out of those early control woes and at least get through five, that actually may have saved them a bit for this game here on Wednesdaynesday yeah yeah the thing with atlanta and by the way it must have been

the fourth inning they put the game on at fenway whatever inning it was bueller was out and i was shocked but the thing with atlanta that kind of gives me solace i think if you're if you're rooting for them is they're hitting and the astros until the ninth inning you couldn't have said the same so they can kind of cover say they have a bullpen game today their offense is clicking enough that you feel like hey maybe they have a shot right because they've been able to keep constant pressure on the Dodgers and so I think that's important to know here as we talk about the pitching and obviously that's really important to how the series is going to go but I think what's been really impressive has been Atlanta's lineup.

We talked a little bit about this yesterday. And Austin Riley, again, comes up for them. Dansby Swanson's had a great series for them. A really great postseason. We talked about Freddie Freeman's struggles. Obviously, they're missing on Lacuna Jr. But their lineup is hitting. And if Houston, and I know we'll get to them.

I know I'm skipping ahead on the rundown. But Houston hasn't been hitting up until that ninth inning. is hitting and if Houston and I know we'll get to them I know I'm skipping ahead on the rundown but Houston hasn't been hitting up until that ninth inning and so if Houston can hit this is a series right and that's the reason why with Atlanta I still feel like they can make this a series because they have scored off some really good Dodgers pitching and they've had some really good at bat so far in the series so is this going to be a mano-a-mano lineup game? Maybe. I don't know how Urias is going to pitch. He's not an opener today. This is a straight start for him. I think so, yeah. How deep will he go? How deep can he go? He's

kind of been jerked around a little here. They always seem to use him a little bit less in the postseason than they did in the regular season. I would expect four or five tops. Right. I was really impressed with Morton because, you know, he doesn't really use that split finger very often. And I feel like we saw it more often in that game once he started struggling because he was like, I just need to throw something that has a different look

and goes the other way because they're kind of – what they were doing, I think, was really taking a lot of his curveballs on the outside part. The righties were, I think you saw Mookie Betts with a couple of big takes on that curveball. And I think that's, that demonstrates a little bit what Morton was talking to me in the late season when he said he feels he has more leeway with the curveball to lefties than righties. Because I think when he throws the curveball to lefties back foot, it looks like a strike to them, right? It's, it's kind of like up there it's up and it's like in, and it looks like a strike and then it disappears and they swing over it. Uh, but they feel like they need to swing at it. Oh, righty. If you throw that curve ball to the outside corner, a lot of them just say,

that doesn't look good. You know, even if it does hit the strike zone, it's way out there. It's his pitch. It's not my pitch. And so, you know, I think their idea was we're just going to take those pitches. And I think righties taking curveballs on the outside part of the plate was a big part of all those walks. So he started throwing the splitter into righties. You know, it's weird. You usually think of, oh, the changeup.

Go to the changeup more because the lefties are hitting you. No, he went to the changeup in the zone to righties because it was a pitch that had action towards them and, uh, they couldn't take it because it looked like a strike. So I thought, uh, that was some gritty stuff from Morton and just, uh, just really out there and really great. But, um, yeah, you know, they, they could steal this, this game from Urias, uh, with, with some hitting, but I really expect, uh, the, the Dod, they could steal this game from Urias with some hitting. But I really expect the Dodgers to tie it up today. And then Scherzer in five, right? Yeah.

So then you kind of think the Dodgers go up 3-2. Do you? Because Max had a dead arm. That's true. And even his good starts have been like four innings and stuff. Yeah, he seems kind of tired now after a really big stretch when they first acquired him. So yeah, I don't know.

I think this game's a coin flip. I think the rest of the series is kind of a coin flip. I think tonight in particular is a coin flip. That's my boy. I mean, again, the way the pitching has gone, I don't think you can say that.

Oh, look at that. It's a bullpen game in game five. Yes. I think I would go Dodgers tonight, Braves tomorrow night, and then Dodgers in six. So, yeah, seven. Who's Dodgers? Well, the Dodgers are minus 225 today,, 7th. Who starts with 7th?

Well, the Dodgers are minus 225 today, by the way, on the money line. Just for reference. They're a pretty big favorite, relatively speaking. What were they yesterday? Good question. I didn't look yesterday. They've been probably favorite every game.

Some of them were closer. Arias versus a bullpen game, that's going to be a much bigger game. I mean, yesterday... Some of them were closer. Arias versus a bullpen game, that's going to be a much bigger line, I think, than what we had yesterday with Morton going up against Buehler. Yeah, the Dodgers were favored yesterday, probably minus 160 or something closer to that if I had to guess.

If I were making the line retroactively, which is of absolutely no value. I think it was even closer than that, if I remember. Oh, that would be a time. Oh, yeah, you know, you do these... Yeah, you know, wrote about it. Yeah, here you go. retroactively which is of absolutely i think it was even closer than that if i remember oh that would be a time oh yeah you know you do these yeah you know wrote about it yeah here you go minus 175 according to todd the live stream so okay more more in line with that but a bullpen game in game five for the dodgers i'm gonna be honest i'm turning into an old man i don't like bullpen games in the playoffs i i'm bothered by it. I don't care when you go to your pen necessarily.

If your starter doesn't have it, sure. You want to give them the hook in the third inning? Fine. Then it turns into a bullpen game. The planned bullpen game. It's just kind of demoralizing for me because I'm not as excited about a planned bullpen game. The starting pitcher is the name in the lights. It's the marquee.

I don't know if it's just because i'm a pitching dork but like it's you know when i'm looking through probables like during the regular season what should i be watching right now it's almost always decided by who's pitching agreed agreed you guys want to hear my wild idea um to disincentivize bullpen games no not disincentivize bullpen games? No, not disincentive. I mean, yes. One. But two, what we're doing now is the starting pitcher used to pitch the entire game, right? That was his role. So why can't MLB, why can't baseball dictate that unless it's an injury situation,

the starting pitcher has to go five innings or six innings? Just in the sport in general. I realize this would have massive implications. But let's not act like it's not feasible. Now you watch how guys are all of a sudden trained to go 100, 10, 120 pitches. Now you watch how teams draft, develop, and scout, put together teams a little differently. And also, then we get rid of these ridiculously long playoff games. Like, they're not fun to watch. They're less fun.

I want to watch my guy against your guy. And I want to watch that for a little while. You can get to the turbo bullpens later. This is my crazy idea that I know would have a ton of implications. But unless there's an injury, that's it. What do you guys think of that? It's intense, actually. Normally, I like to have fewer rules that limit the different ways that you can win.

So when I hear that rule, I say, ooh, the Rays would really hurt from this one. Would it, though? Because I covered the Rays in 08, and they had starters, and they went to the World Series. The Rays can develop pitching. Would it really hurt the Rays? Last year, they had a bunch of five, six-inning guys. Yeah, I guess so. Starters are expensive because they can go.

But they've always just got them from within and then traded them away. Right. Their park is built. They're actually at an advantage in this kind of rule. You know, what I like about your rule, too, is it's way more direct. There are other rules about like limiting the number of pitchers um which gets at the pitching change idea but um this one's just like no your starter has to go five that's it your start has to go five unless

he's injured that's it that and get in the box and i think you have solved the how many how many teams would be like oh he's injured well if's injured, he has to go on the... That's it. Automatic IL stint. Yeah, you gotta go on the IL. But there are injuries where they're just like, he's gonna miss his next start. Okay, then he misses his next start.

You still need a guy the next day to go, you wanna blow your bullpen up? That's fine. That's on you, I guess. You still need a guy the next day to go. You can't... It'd be very obvious if teams kept using that rule. Kept doing that. Mitch, on the live stream, I'd rather not watch the Orioles be forced to throw

a pitcher for 170 pitches. That would be the concern as people would claim health and stuff. I'm sorry. We fundamentally have changed the role of a starting pitcher. It's like, what if all of a sudden we used a catcher per inning? People would be like, that's nuts.

The position of catcher is to catch a game. Well, the position of a starting pitcher is to start the game, is to set the tone and go deep into the game. They used to pitch the entire game. Now we're having bullpen games. There has to be a way to stop the madness. And the only way to do it is a direct cutthroat rule. Jonathan's point

is good, too. I like that. Yeah. Yeah, Roger threw this out there. This is something I think Jason Stark wrote about maybe a year or so ago. If you have universal DH, but you lose the DH when you take the starting pitcher out of the game, that changes a lot about how early you're willing to pay that penalty.

It's more of like an incentive structure, right? It's like the incentive of keeping this hitter in. It's just like people keep saying like, oh, the 2019 Nationals ruined everything because they used starting pitchers on their throw days. And the Red Sox did the same thing in 18. Those teams still had starting pitchers. People forget that Davey Martinez left his starters in a lot when people

were like clamoring third time through the lineup seventh inning he left these guys in so and until you have that scenario which is not what we have now we have the opposite of that we have guys who as soon as it becomes like the bullpen might slightly be better everyone is so quick to push the bullpen maneuver it seems like everyone would rather say, hey, we went with a fresh arm and we lost, than, hey, we trusted our starter for another inning. And it just, in my opinion, needs to change because it's not as entertaining to watch.

Yeah, I mean, it's all the pitch counts. Here's Todd. Todd comments, pretty funny. Yeah, pitchers used to go full on the seven innings, but players used to pick it up during the game. You know what, Todd hot who says they don't anymore. Jonathan's comment about the Rays,

it's a good point. This would be a rule, and then it'd be on the better teams to try and figure out how to win with the rule in place. The Rays would churn out 10 guys who could throw five innings. I have no doubt.

Some of that's just getting... Michael's comment. The Rays would churn out 10 guys who could throw five innings. I have no doubt. Yeah. Yeah, and some of that's just getting... How about Michael's comment about pushing through here? I'm waking up the chat with my wild idea this morning. Oh, yeah. It's working. Yeah, Michael's idea also is that instead of a starting pitcher to push through a sore hamstring and actually blow out his leg,

shoulder, elbow, I mean, yeah, if you've got a minor injury, you're trying to get through it, maybe save your team, avoid the IL, you end up hurting yourself worse, that's a possibility. That's a thing that could happen that would not be great. And we're generally trying to... No penalty. There's no penalty on taking a guy

out for an injury. No, no. There is a penalty. You lose him for 10 days. You wouldn't have to put him on the IL in this scenario. You would just have to pull him out for an injury situation. Maybe somebody independent would have to verify the win. I don't know. I don't know how that would work.

It would work the same. It works now. People abuse the IL. Yeah. Yeah, it's already a problem. We've seen teams expand their roster in a variety of creative ways. So all three of us are on the dodge. You could have mandated and miss the next start. That's true, yeah. You could put that in the rule.

I know it's a crazy idea. I'm just like, I can't think of... They need something to start because the minimum batter stuff doesn't work. Yeah. Are we all on the Dodgers today with the Atlanta bullpen game scenario, by the way? I am.

Yeah. Yeah. I still think the Braves win in seven, but yeah. I think you could write a story where the Braves win in seven pretty easily because you have the Dodgers win tonight, lose tomorrow, win the max start, and lose game seven. Because I don't even know who starts game seven. Is it Walker on short rest again?

I don't know, but the Braves would have what, Freed in six? He just started. So you'd have games four and five in a rest day and six. Oh, Walker on full rest. In seven? I think it would be maybe Walker, Morton, Redux. Yeah, you're right. So Freed would win six.

And so I think it goes to a seven. Yeah. So we'd have Scherzer winning game six to make it even 3-3. And then Morton Walker again. We'll get there. So look, I took the Dodgers down 2-0. I'm happy I did it.

I feel a lot better about it today than I did at the time that I did it. That's all I'm going to say about that. But we all left the Astros. Yeah. And now they're tied 2-2, right? They are knotted up at 2, so a big 7-run 9th after a Jose Altuve

game-tying home run in the 8th off of Garrett Whitlock. That was a big one. That was a 2-out rally that occurred as we mentioned earlier, after what looked like a called strike three from Ivaldi to Castro that would have ended the inning. That was a huge call.

No guarantees that Boston comes up and gets the game-winning run and they go on to win the game anyway, but that was a big spot for a bad call. Obviously, we know this Houston team can score runs in bunches. It was only a matter of time. I wondered if they'd rally back from a big deficit

earlier in the series. They didn't, but they came through and woke up at the right time. I think the biggest takeaway, aside from the fact that they ended up tying up the series, the next thing for me is, how does this impact Evaldi in future games? Because it wasn't just 15 pitches

on the throw day. It was like 24 and it was definitely a high stress appearance. So is there going to be some of that carryover effect? Like we talked about with Max Scherzer, is Evaldi going to go out there on his next scheduled start and have 70% of his stuff and have to leave the game after four innings because he's just not quite himself. Fair. I mean, to me, the story of that game is houston's bullpen which like when granky came out after four outs i was i was like well

here we go again like i think everyone kind of thought that the red sox were going to beat up on houston and the the ds call is going to get a ton of publicity and rightfully so however the red sox offense with oh for nine with runners in scoring position stranded i think double digit runners on base so they had opportunities they just couldn't cash in and to me is that the game that kind of wakes up the astros offense because we really haven't seen that much from them their lineup since the chicago series maybe um you know that it guarantees it goes back to Houston where they play better, where they're in a less hostile environment.

The Red Sox crowd has certainly brought it here over the last two nights. I expect tonight will be no different. But all of a sudden, it seems like, oh, why did we write the Astros on his dead? Well, I still don't think their pitching is going to hold up over the long haul, right? why did we write the Astros as dead? Well, I still don't think their pitching is going to hold up over the long haul. That's

still probably the concern. Though now at least we have a series. Javier shoved, and we did mention that they saved Javier and Graveman and Presley. And that was true. Didn't Presley throw in the last game? I said Stanek.

They actually thrown Stanek. We're saying they saved him two days ago so they could use him yesterday and today. Didn't Presley throw in the last game? I said Stanek. They actually thrown Stanek. Yeah, yeah. We're saying they saved him two days ago so they could use him yesterday and today. Like, that was what they did well. Anyway, calling back to an old conversation. But anyway, to some extent, they definitely saved Javier. And they, to some extent, saved Graven and Presley for this game. And Javier came through.

It was great. Javier's only real issue is the command, and it didn't seem like a big problem yesterday. The problem that I think you alluded to that we still have is that what's the pitching path forward? Like, it still seems like a mess. You know, unless Garcia comes off the mat, you know, and Fromber shoves, even if both of those things happen,

what happens after that? Is it just a Javier start in game seven? Oh, you don't want to throw Grinke out there again? I mean, he didn't get a single singing strike. Yeah. Unfortunately, a pretty ugly performance from him. We were hoping for three. We got one in the third.

I think you go back to Javier as long as you possibly can in game seven if it gets out that far. And I think you may have to go there sooner depending on Garcia, which is not ideal because he threw 57 pitches yesterday. So I think there are some pretty significant questions to be answered with this group, and they may have to go outside the roster. If Garcia's knee is not healing up, they'd have to do something a little more drastic which puts a ton of pressure on someone we haven't seen to bring a lot of innings so that's definitely a

big part of the equation it's almost just are they going to out hit their pitching can they of course they can they've got the best offense in the league when everything's working top to bottom yesterday i think everybody every spot in the lineup had at least one hard hit ball for the Astros because Jason Castro came in and got a couple. So one through nine, everyone had a hard hit ball. That's the type of offense they are when things are working. The Castro hit in particular was huge. Mm-hmm.

Yeah. Today with Chris Sale going, we've been flummoxed, I would say, by Sale throughout the postseason, expecting more than what he's been able to give us, even if he's not himself. Has anything changed? Have you seen any reason to believe that Sale's going more than three today? Which is, it's just, I feel like I've completely lost it even suggesting this, but what is going on here and how would you handle this with Chris Sale? Would you actually do something different? Would you change your mind

and throw an opener in front of him and bring him in second, third, and fourth instead? Maybe get the matchups you want? I mean, what can you do to make Chris Sale more effective? I mean, they did that to Urias and I love Urias and Urias says all the numbers are great.

Why not do it to Sale, who's coming back from injury, and the numbers aren't that great on his stuff, you know? Well. I like that idea. I mean, I do too, but who do you open with? Whitlock or something, I don't know. Whitlock, I mean. Yeah, I know.

Adovino? Huh? How about Adovino for the opener? Not bad. Not bad. Not bad. It's the best I can do. I think you're only going to get three out of Sale, so you were going to pitch Adovino anyway,

so why not pitch Adovino in the first? I don't know. If Geyser Creatures have it, maybe Sale really likes starting games. Maybe Adovino really does. I don't know. Right? I think it's also interesting to wonder is this just what Sail is now? Or is everything going to be better next year?

I think this is pretty typical post-TJ first few months back. Usually it's command that's affected, not necessarily stock. Yeah. I think it's too soon's affected, not necessarily stock. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's too soon to run him off.

I would like to see a full off-season of rest and a nice progression of third-spring training, right? Probably, yeah. A lot of that. But I agree with you guys on the outing tonight. I don't think – it's crazy, right? We've got a bullpen game in the Braves, and then we've got, like, Sale and Astros piecing stuff together. And, again, no team really has this, like –

no team is immune from this, I guess. And I just wonder where the game goes from here. But, yeah, with Sale, as Eno mentioned, I think, the other day, when he ramps it up, his stuff gets worse. Like, when the velocity gets better, he's not as effective. So you kind of have to hope he lives in that middle ground and maybe goes through the lineup one time. They haven't used Hauk much in the series yet, right?

Just like once? Yeah. I don't think we've seen much Hauk so far. I think it's actually kind of amazing. It's a Sail-Hauk piggyback. And Sail and Haualk are like the same guy from opposite sides so it's it could actually work really well it's just you wish you could almost like put sale up there for the lefties and then put halk up that in you'll put halk up there

for the righties and stuff we're trying to fix the pitching problems yeah not just like not put pitchers back in in fact, but they could like, wouldn't it be funny to see like Chris Sale like run out to left field and Hauk comes in for a string of varieties

and then Chris Sale comes back? At least that would be funny. It'd be funny the first time it happened and then it'd be a thing

that would make us very angry, I think, very quickly. But we haven't seen Hauk since game one of the ALCS. Hauk is in there

tonight. And he's fully rested too. There's only one inning that he threw back since game one of the ALCS. Houck is in there tonight. And he's fully rested, too. He's only one inning that he threw back in game one. So he could give them as many innings as he's effective for. I bet you he's warming in the first. Yeah. Yeah, he could be. The comments about Forrest Whitley in the live stream are funny.

Roger, maybe the Astros have been slow playing Forrest Whitley. Jonathan, severely slow playing Whitley. The long con. Yeah, unfortunately. I mean, if you'd said two years ago, the Astros are going to be in the postseason. They're going to have some pitching issues. Who's going to step up for them?

Of course, Forrest Whitley is going to be there contributing. It's kind of the same as Mackenzie Gore in San Diego. Yeah, I just thought of Mackenzie Gore. I saw Mackenzie Gore blowing 95 in the fall league. Oh, yeah. I heard he looked better. He's real. He's still there.

I'm glad he's pitching well and looking pretty good. Whitley still has a chance someday. Not now. Not in this season. With the Framber sale situation and all the things we're talking about, Hauk being fully rested, who do you like today

in Game 5 in the ALCS? We'll go to you first, Britt. I think Boston wins today. This is almost like a must win if you think about how Boston's lined up and their home game before it goes to Houston. So I think Boston's going to win this game. It may go seven, though. I can see the Astros winning that first game back at home

and forcing the seventh. But I think the Red Sox are going to win tonight. I just checked my picks, and I picked the Astros. Astros. Wait, who's the starting pitching matchup tonight? Is it the Framboise one? It's the Framboise-Sale matchup. Yeah, yeah.

I'm going Astros. I just think that Framboise can go longer. I think they might touch Sale before Houck comes in. And then Houck is great, but against lefties, it's a little bit rough. So I think Jordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley will be really tough matchups for Houck. So, you know, Astros' lineup is so great because there's really good players on both sides, you know.

So you can't really just be like, oh, if I've got a lefty on the mound, you know, we'll shut down Alvarez and, you know, nothing will happen on the other side. Well, there's Altuve and Correa on the other side. So, you know, and Bregman. So, you know, I think that this is a tough matchup for the Red Sox today and have the Astros winning. I'll take the Red Sox side of this. I don't know how they're going to do it with Sale being responsible for 6-9 outs at the beginning, but I think Houck's going to come through and shove.

I don't know if something's wrong with Frambois. He hasn't been untouchable in the playoffs this year. I mean, only two and two-thirds back in game one of this series. He's only a two-pitch pitcher. Yeah, didn't pitch well against the White Sox in the playoffs this year. I mean, only two and two-thirds back in game one of this series. He's only a two-pitch pitcher. Yeah, didn't pitch well against the White Sox and the DS either. I think maybe this is a guy that Boston can get to, even though he can give the Astros much-needed length if it's going well. He's finding the corners, keeping the ball on the ground the way he does.

I see the path for him to be good, but it just hasn't been that guy so far in the postseason. I don't like to use these so much, these team pitch type values that tell you how good a team is against a certain pitch. But I remember the White Sox are really good against the curveball. And let me see how that works out for the Red Sox. Against the curveball, the White Sox

were second in baseball, and the Red Sox were fifth. Maybe you're right. Maybe they're going to get to Valdez. I didn't even get that granular with it. I just thought, it hasn't been the guy we saw in the postseason a year ago. Last year, looked almost untouchable in the playoffs.

He's been much more human this time around. Any other closing thoughts before we go? I'm glad they made it tighter. I think everything is a little bit more exciting today than it was yesterday. Yeah, I agree with that. For the casual fan, apologies to whoever's got real skin in the game. That's like you're just like, shut up, you know. Yeah, I'm more relaxed.

The play is lost, you ass. I'm definitely more relaxed now than I was when the Brewers were still in it. So, you know, always a silver lining, I guess. No, not really. I enjoyed that sweat in every imaginable way. Lots of good stuff on the site. You can get 50% off a subscription at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels.

Get Britt's piece about the Mets search for a new GM. That is up. Edo had a piece looking at the Dodgers and the new slider that they appear to have found or the work they're doing with their pitchers to develop new sliders at least which is really interesting so be sure to check those pieces out plus everything else on the site all included theathletic.com slash rates and barrels we of course are back here at 11 30 a.m eastern each weekday you can

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