Rates & Barrels - Draft Weekend Cram Session

Episode Date: March 21, 2025

Eno and DVR get ready for a busy weekend of drafts with a quick spin through spring news and notes, before discussing ideal roster builds, when to target an ace, how to approach closers, which positions thin out quickly, a few prospects worth considering as late-round stashes in redraft leagues as they await an opportunity at the big-league level. Rundown 2:46 Spring News Updates 13:51 Any Grapefruit or Cactus League Performances You're Worried About? 23:53 Early-Rounders You Are Side-Stepping at ADP 33:04 When to Draft an Ace 40:14 Closer Approach in First 150 Picks 49:19 Position Depth: Where Can You Wait, Where Are You Spending Early? 1:04:06 Depth Starters of Interest 1:08:20 Injured Players or Prospects Worth Stashing in Redraft? Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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["Walk the Rates and Barrels"] ["Walk the Rates and Barrels"] ["Walk the Rates and Barrels"] Walk the Rates and Barrels, it's Friday, March 21st. Derek and Robert, you know, Sarah's here with you on this episode. It is a cram session for people who have not drafted their fantasy baseball teams yet. So if you have not been listening throughout the winter, if you're just picking up the show relatively recently, or if you just feel like you're not quite ready heading into a

draft this weekend or early next week, we're gonna do our best to get you up to speed in one episode. It is a challenge we are willing to take on and we've got a ton of ground to cover. So there will not be a lot of housekeeping, but there is some necessary housekeeping, including a reminder. Our two live episodes are now one week away. Bare Bottle Brewing Company, the Bernal Heights location in San Francisco, March 27th, March 28th, 4.30 start time. Looking forward to seeing as many of you out there

as we possibly can. No tickets required, free admission. We'll be hanging out watching games throughout the day. So we're excited to have those live shows, to get out there and to have some kayakers Cove too. Yeah, kayakers Cove, which I helped, we helped collaborate with Lester Koga, who's the co-founder and head brewer there at Bear Bottle. We actually did the brew, I was there for the brewing and it's a fun idea. It's a session IPA. It's basically you take a rice lager and then you put some citra and

Nelson and Petrine in. And the idea is to have, um, some of the aromatics and some of the kind of, uh, the taste that you associate with IPAs, but with a super crushable, you know, one of the working titles for this was day game. Um, and so that's the idea is something that you could crush during a warm day. Um, as a runner, I prefer the lower ABVs because I now done the math and know exactly how many miles I have to run for every beer and it's not one mile for beer. Not for those double hazies and triple

hazies and those big ones you've been drinking for a long time, especially. Yeah. Those are, those start to add up pretty quickly. Yeah. As a less active human at this particular phase of my life, I'm finding lower ABV beers are also kind of my sweet spot.

So whether it's a day game crusher or just something that's a little lighter overall, that is absolutely in my wheelhouse. So I'm looking forward to trying that and very excited that you were part of that brewing process a few weeks ago. Once that got started, let's get into the meat of today's rundown. We begin with some updates, things that you may want to know if you're drafting this weekend. We are still awaiting a follow up on the second opinion Jared Jones is getting on his elbow. I think we're in that. Probably don't draft unless it's a pick you're willing to just throw away until we have more information because the sore elbow that required some imaging.

So that's just sort of like a wait and see sort of scenario. But the more nuanced decisions come around guys that are either recovering from injuries ahead of schedule or slightly behind schedule that are going to be Mostly fine this year and that conversation begins today with Gunnar Henderson He's been dealing with that oblique injury now for a couple of weeks Opening day may not be a lock this according to Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun We talked about the relative discount we'd be looking for on Gunnar Henderson recently. I think if you fall to the back of round one, early round two,

you could still take them there because even if this were nine in the main event, like we're happy with that discount. Yeah, that's, but I think I want that little discount right now, just because we're talking about the kind of injury that can nag or be a recurring sort of problem. And you don't need to opt into an injury problem at that point in the draft. There are plenty of other very good, elite, healthy players sitting on the board next to him. So I think that's the only slight adjustment is just making sure you're not paying a hundred percent full freight for Gunner, given that this

injury is taking just a little bit longer to heal than they initially expected. Yeah, I mean, obliques can be tricky. All you're doing is waiting and waiting until it doesn't hurt and then trying to do something and seeing if that hurts. It was explained to me by Zach Grecki at one point. You know, we don't know when he's going to be back, but I think the upside is worth it. You know, I think this is a guy who could put together a top three season, um, you know, this season.

And so even with a missed a week or two, I think he can still do that. I think he can put together a Bobby wit like season that we had last year. So when you have talent like that, you have to get, you have to be in. I'm still in on Devers. You know, maybe I want it to be kind of near the end of the third round or, you have to get, you have to be in, I'm still in on Devers. You know, maybe I want it to be kind of near the end of the third round or, you know, uh, mid third round instead of, you know, at the two, three turn where it used to be, I've even gotten a share of Acuna junior this year where I waited until the fourth or fifth round, you know?

So there's a price for everyone when they have this massive amount of upside. I'm in when they are Jeff McNeil, I'm not trying to, you know, I do have shares of Jeff Neil in my draft and holds and it'll be probably be fine. But if they are Jeff McNeil, you don't have to draft them because. The upside isn't the same and the downside is he's hurt for a while. I mean, I know that's obvious. I sort of trailed off because I'm like, that's obvious, but I mean, still be in on guys that have the huge upside, even if there's a

little bit of injury risk. Right. Because the slight discount could prove to be well worth taking, but make sure you're getting that slight discount in these instances. I think Henderson's teammate, Felix Bautista is a little tougher to get a good read on. He's coming off of Tommy John surgery. He's made a handful of appearances this spring.

I think it's a total of four innings, seven strikeouts, just one walk so far. And the way Brandon Hyde was talking about the opening day roster just made it less than clear if Bautista is definitely going to be on it. But even if Bautista is not ready for opening day, we've been wondering all along how long it would take for him to throw in back to backs and how they would manage his workload in the early part of the season.

This to me just seems like part of the normal progression for a closer coming off of Tommy John, where April might not look nearly as good as August and September, right? The saves might be sort of backloaded from Bautista, but the question remains, like, how much of a discount do you need to trust Felix Bautista as your primary closer this year? Not much more than where he's going. I'm comfortable with where he's going.

I mean, the thing about closers and relievers is, they can get ready in a hurry. Like, what do they need to see out of him? They've already seen him four times. It's not like a starter that needs to build up to a certain amount, you know, because they're not going to use them in back to back. So they're not going to see if they can use them back to back. So I think he makes the opening day roster.

Like he's already pitched four times. He's the stuff plus in the spring is fine. The strikeout rate is fine. The projections are amazing. Um, yes, you might not have as many saves as other guys, but I've forgotten a couple of shares about T's and been pretty happy about it. I think that he's in my circle of trust, just based on the, the stuff upside in the, the, one of the questions, you know, like with Luis Garcia,

we got some injury news that, um, he's got to step up off of his rehab. And one of the things I've made, uh made points I've made here often is you'd rather see a guy returning from Tommy John pitch to batters before they, before you draft. And with Garcia, I ended up taking him as like like 10th and 11th pitcher in draft and holds where my starting pitcher, where I'm like. You know, I know that I have this rule, but it's so cheap that I couldn't resist, you know, and shame on me, you know, he's, he's going to have to step up off his rehab and who knows if he gets to a hundred and he's this year. Um, but with Batista, like what, how does that affect the rule?

Like he, we've seen him, we've seen the pitch to batters. I feel like he's draftable. He's fine where he is. Yeah. Occasionally you do get a pretty steep discount too. I think looking at the RotoWire online championship drafts in the last seven days or so, you might find Batista falling as low as pick 141.

I don't think you can expect that, but it's at least a possibility. If you're getting him even in the pick 100 to 120 pocket, that's a really good value for a closer that could easily be a top five closer over the course of the year. But again, it might be a little more backloaded. I would shuffle the order a little bit. I mean, Joanne Duran is someone I like more than Bautista right now, but I think I take your overall assessment that wherever that last spot is in your circle of trust among closers, it either belongs to Bautista or he's somewhere ahead of it.

That's kind of where I'm at with him right now as well. Some good news on Christian Walker in recent weeks. He's been working back from an oblique injury. The Astros are going to have him continue to play in minor league games. We talked about this a little bit I think yesterday. Oftentimes what you'll see for guys who've been dealing with these nagging injuries, they won't play in the major league spring games. They'll play in minor league games because it allows the team to backdate a possible IL stint further and shorten up the absence if they have a setback. So he's not completely out of the woods, but I would say Walker is at least tracking towards missing very little time to begin the season if he even misses time at all. Yeah, I'm I think he should be restored to just about where he was being drafted before the Andrew news.

Almost back. Okay. We can live with that. I picked 97 is his ADP. He does represent a little bit of a cliff, uh, where he goes. I think after him, you're less excited about your first baseman. Would you rather have Josh Naylor today or Christian Walker? Yeah. I'd rather. Yeah. I'd rather have one of them and not what comes after is basically I'm saying, like who's after them and you start getting into.

There's one guy I think you like that goes after Jake Berger goes directly after he's fine Vinnie Pasquentino. I think he probably like pass. Good. It's all right. This is where it starts to get bad after fine. Vinny Pasquentino. I think he probably like Pasquitino. It's all right. This is where it starts to get bad after that. No, Casas. All right. So maybe I'm wrong.

Yeah, that's still a group I like. There's a 40-pick gap. Then you get down to Goldschmidt. That's where I don't like. Banged up Spencer Steer. And there is a difference between Walker and Naylor and Pasquentino and Casas, which is just floor versus ceiling. And you know, you're, you're asking for something you haven't seen yet from Pascantino and Casas

to some degree. Whereas with Walker and Naylor, you're just asking for what you've already seen. I think what you're likely to see is there's currently about a 15-pick gap between Naylor and Walker that might close over the course of the weekend as people realize what happens at the position. We don't know how much Naylor is going to steal. We don't even know how much she's going to hit homers because this new park is not quite as well aligned with the skills and Josh Naylor. So moving to chase fields tough.

But the one thing about Naylor is he makes more contact than Walker. So possibly better batting average. Um, so I think they'll be pretty comfortable players. I'm, I'm happy with either of those guys and to some extent, if you're 10, 12, 10 leads, I could rather have one of those guys and then maybe have, if I want to double tap like a Casas or Pascantino for C for corner infield, just because if it doesn't work out, you have more options and you have more positions to go to, you can, you can backfill that in other ways.

Yeah, it's a good way to think about it too, possibly get two from that pocket. Some other names in the news right now, Hayden Wisneski sent for some x-rays on his foot, he got hit by a comebacker, but he was doing drills on Friday, so I think this is more of a day to day, just making sure nothing's wrong,

we'll keep an eye on it just in case, but I still like Wisneski as a pretty late round possible sleeper as one of the backend starters in Houston, especially with less pressure coming from Garcia due to that setback, right? So among the names they could eventually have back in the fold. And I did see Lance McCullers Jr. tossed an inning earlier this week, his first game action since the 2022 World Series, which kind of just fits into the Drew Rasmussen, happy to see him back on the mound bucket. Like don't know where it really goes from here and how much he's going to be able to pitch and how much they can stretch him out.

But just the fact that he made it through all of this rehab to finally pitch in a game again, says a lot about how hard he worked to get there. Yeah. I watched that game, he pitched an Indy and then Arrogati pitched after him. And, um, it's hard. It's really hard to, I think it does fulfill that bucket of like pitching to major leaguers. So, Hey, that's just really interesting.

But in terms of like prognosticating how he'll look at how many innings he'll have off that one inning. I couldn't do that for you just because he's been just the most innings risk pitcher in baseball, but, uh, you know, my, my ranks came out today and couldn't do that for you just because he's been just the most innings risk pitcher in baseball, but, uh, you know, my, my ranks came out today and Arrogate pitched after that. And some people will notice, some people already noticed that Spencer Arrogate dropped a little bit in the rankings. I had him as a breakout pitcher.

I still like him, but that look wasn't favorable for me. He, uh, was really nibbling to lefties and Command wasn't there And I hope I wasn't just really influenced by like one start with the command wasn't there But we know that Eric Eddie's command is not that good You know so I was just left wondering if he has dominant enough stuff to just aim for the middle zone or if he's kind of going to be a nibbler that Has strikeouts but also has walks and has some troubles against lefties. That's why he dropped a little bit

Good explanation. Yeah, be sure to check out those updated ranks the athletic comm slash rates and barrels get a subscription if you don't have one already But it's he Mason win back in the lineup on Friday. He was dealing with some wrist soreness this week He's had a bad spring. Is there anybody who's had just a miserable spring that, at least to our knowledge, it hasn't impacted their job, but has changed your opinion, similar to the Arigetti situation? You're like, yeah, I don't like what I've seen right now. I'm not panicking about Mason Wynn for the record. I look at him as a guy that could run a lot more. I think he even said as much at whatever their winter festival is.

I don't know if they call it the Cardinals caravan or the best winter tour in baseball or whatever they call it. But he looks like a player that could take a massive step forward, maybe be a regular leadoff guy for the Cardinals as well. I think that's at least in the cards as something he could earn over the course of the year. And as they're starting shortstop, he's going to play every day as well. But whether it's win or someone else, are there any other Springs that have really scared you away from a player? I don't know if it's scared me totally away, but, uh, George Springer spring.

I just wish he'd hit a Homer or something and power is one of those things that he could hit two homers today, you know, and all of a sudden his line would look great, but he again has the high walk rate and the good strikeout rate. Um, and absolutely no power. And I just, I wonder what his season will look like, but projections, he's always a value in every draft. Um, and so I would love to be given that sort of, Hey, old, old player oatmeal kind of stamp. sort of, Hey, old, old player oatmeal kind of stamp. But if he's down to like 12 homers, I don't think he has, you know, much speed. So now the downside is starting to look like, what if he has like a two

30, 12, 12 season, then he's not going to be, um, the value that your, your auction calculator says he will be. So I think his, that's why his ADP has always been below where the auction calculator set. And we know from Jeff Zimmerman that if you're looking at a projected bounce back for a player that's over 32 years old, that is not as valuable, not as sure of a thing as a protected bounce back from somebody who's younger. So, you know, that's where Springer resides right in that In that sort of old bounce back bucket. And you had to be careful with those.

I would, I would maybe take one or two per draft. My favorite in that bucket right now is Nolan Aronado. He's going to be in my bold predictions that come out early next week. And his bat speed is back. So that's a spring training that's affected me maybe in the opposite way. Yeah, that's sometimes it can cut that way. You see a good spring and it either just completely changes your opinion or maybe changes the team's opinion or it's enough to break a tie in a job battle.

We did see that with Curtis Meade. He's going to make the Rays opening day roster. Eloy Jimenez is not, so I'm a little sad about that, but he's going to stay in the organization, it sounds like, go to Durham and possibly make an impact later on this season. Is Meade a late round flyer that is now on your radar as a result of this development? Yeah, it's hard to know exactly how they will parse out

the playing time in Tampa. And if you do have more time than just listening to this, I recommend just looking at the depth charts, um, at every, on every team, they have a whole, uh, all the teams in one place at, at fan graphs. And you can kind of look where the playing time share is and where you disagree. Right now they say Meade gets 22% of the ad baths at DH, 4% at first, 7% at second. That's not a small side platoon guy.

Yeah. Yeah. That's not super exciting. Now what the Rays will do with a right-hander is probably find him some right-handed at bats, like against right-handers just to keep him fresh and keep him in the lineup. They do mix and match. There'll be some match matches where they like him.

Um, they'll sit Yandy Diaz cause he's a veteran, um, they'll, or because they want more defense and whatever it is, they do play around with this sort of stuff. But I don't think we've seen a lot of mead in the outfield. And so he would have to swim past, uh, Jonathan Aranda at DH and Christopher Morel at DH slash left field to get full time playing time. So I can't anoint him. I can't give him that just yet. I would want to see a week's worth of what they're doing in Tampa to tell him more. At D-Rays Bay has a post about Meade making the roster and it points out Meade's played at first, second and third this spring.

So at least trying to find a defensive home even if you know he doesn't have one just yet. You did mention something in passing there that I think makes Meade worth drafting with maybe your last pick of a 12 team league. It's if he beats out Jonathan Aranda. Jonathan Aranda has done great things at AAA, just hasn't been able to really lock into a prolonged opportunity at the big league level. If Mead out hits Jonathan Aranda, I think he could just be the DH.

That's a possibility, but you just may have to wait a few weeks, maybe even a month before a shift like that happens. So there is at least one spot that's not as crowded as the others. And it happens to be the DH spot for the Rays. A few pitching injuries to mention kind of as a fly by here, Rangers Suarez dealing with some back tightness, but he was supposed to play catch today on Friday. So that's probably good enough news.

We don't have to necessarily scratch him off your list, but just like keep an eye on it. They've been slow walking them. They've been slow walking them this spring. So maybe that's why I've been trying to like read the news to be like, why is he behind this spring? And it must be the back. Yeah. Ryan Weathers out four to six weeks of the forearm strain that probably knocks him off the list for just about all leagues outside of like end alone leagues or leagues with infinite IL spots. But curious to see what happens when he

comes back because he was putting a nice spring together on top of what he did around the finger injury last year. I pushed him all the way down. Yeah, it was funny as Weathers was all the way down to 105. I've got him right next to Frankie Montas and maybe, maybe this is wrong. I have him ahead of Max Meyer. Max Meyer is having a good spring. If you want to take him over Ryan Weathers as the new sort of, you know, Marlins

pitcher du jour, then you do that. I, Max Meyer has made a lot of changes and he was in my deep league breakout, um, article, but he also has the same strikeout rate he's always had. So it's kind of weird to be like, this guy's breaking out. He has an 18% strikeout rate. It's going to be totally different this way. Yeah. So, um, what is the Merge Scherzer update?

Scherzer's taking the two hour bus ride to Fort Myers to face major leaguers on Saturday, which is good. That's been dealing with the thumb problem. And yeah, it's kind of what we'd said earlier about Walker where it's, hey, you're playing against the major leaguers. They can't backdate that. I else didn't max max wanting to take the bus ride. It just to face the major leaguers is, I mean, it checks based on everything

I've ever heard about him. He's all about it. And it's like with Verlander and talking about in camp, talking about pitching till he's 45, like I, they're going to have to basically pry the ball out of those two guys' hands. It still seems like they're in this ongoing battle to see who can stay in the big leagues longer too. They are unspoken perhaps, but still like, I'm not retiring before him. Like that's the, that's the main goal.

I have them right next to each other, uh, in the sixties. And I think they're valuable pitchers still, and that makes them viable in every league. If you want to make Scherzer or Verlander one of your last in a 10 or 12-team league, they're viable, and they don't have the same kind of hype as other last pitchers, so they'll probably be there for you on one of your last rounds. Like you don't have to jump them like you might have to jump a Taj Bradley or definitely Clay Holmes at this point, or Gavin Williams, who could also be one of

your last pitchers in a 10 or 12 team. Instead, you could just wait, we'll let everybody else take the hype and take Scherzer of Irlander in one of your last rounds in the shallower leagues. Yeah, Scherzer's range in the online championship is now picked 204 to 303. So on average picked 245. So he has moved up a little bit with the spring that he's put together. Verlander 241 to 334 going slightly later, it's a pick 289 average, looking at those drafts in the last week or so.

But you're right, less hype on both given their age than some of the other pitching sleepers, air quotes, that are out there. And I think that pretty much concludes the news segment. Oh, I guess Alex Verdugo to Atlanta, but I just see like a spare part, kind of like Dylan Carlson in Baltimore. It's one year, one and a half million. Probably not good news for Jared Kelnick

once the roster gets a little more crowded. At least that would be the guy that maybe has the most pressure on him playing time-wise. But until Acuna's back, there gets a little more crowded. At least that would be the guy that maybe has the most pressure on him playing timewise. But until Acuna is back, there's a little bit of room for them to mix and match and basically just use Verdugo as the fourth outfielder, I guess, in that group. But not that excited about him. I mean, somewhere between Verdugo, Kelnick, and Brian de la Cruz, someone is losing out when Acuna comes back for sure.

Right. If everybody's healthy. I guess that's the other, other caveat. That's kind of important to throw in there. Even then, do you think that, uh, Verdugo, Kalanick, Profar and Harris? Yeah, they all make the roster. Andela Cruz waited. That's five outfielders. The math gets wonky there too.

Cause they have a starting DH in Ozuna. Right. So someone eventually gets bumped off that roster. Do you think that they even by opening day, right? Like somebody's not making opening day. Well, I think Verdugo won't make opening days because he signed late. I mean, this is really like a week before the opener. I don't I don't think he's going to.

Yeah. Start the year on the big league roster. That's my guess anyway. They have Nick Allen backing up every position. Yeah, I mean, sure. Yeah, why not? Some ideal build related questions, though, just thinking about rosters are put together. Are there a couple of early rounders for second, third,

you can go as far down as you want, but guys that are foundational players that you have been sidestepping at ADP this year. We talked about our most rostered players and there's some guys at the top that you just can't really get because you don't end up in the right draft seat, but there's some guys that you end up passing on a few times because you had a maybe a toss-up sort of decision and you had a strong preference to go one way versus the other. So who are the early rounders you've been avoiding this draft season? I haven't got a lot of the pitchers in the first two rounds. They don't have any skeins or school, do you?

No, I do not. I do have one team with Wheeler. I think he was. I got timed out. It was a draft that I didn't know. That's right. It's going on or something. And I got them at the end of the second.

So it's not terrible, but, um, I might not have made, but end of second, I'm okay with it. He just, he was, it was the auto draft. So he picked the, he fell, you know, so that's okay for me. Um, I'm not getting a ton of Katel Marte. Um, I like him as a player. It's fine. But he's also had a lot of soft tissue injuries and he's had great years and then he's had

like full on lost years, you know, and as he gets older, you know, paying for Cattell Marte as with a second round price makes me nervous as heck. I have zero shares of Freddie Freeman. You know, there are some revelations about his playing time that make me uncomfortable, frankly. Like, you know, he's not going to play in a day games after night games. I, I don't know how many there are, but I would guess that's 15 to 20 games he's not playing it. You know, like you could comb through the schedule and really figure that one out.

But on top of that surgically repaired ankles, I don't love Getting a guy right after surgery. I don't couldn't is going in the second. I would never pay that price when I got him I got him in the fourth So that's those are some early names that You know, I haven't I've haven't paid the freight on but a lot of times you know the first two rounds just has a lot to do with your draft position. And so, you know, I might make some small decisions there, which means I don't have certain players, but it doesn't mean I'm out on them.

You know, I did pick a gunner over Mookie Betts, you know, recently and have made decisions like that, but it doesn't mean I'm out on Mookie completely. It's if you want me to be out on somebody in the first two rounds, it's Katel Marte and Freddie Freeman and probably probably skeins and scooble. I'm not, I don't disagree. Like it's certain builds. It makes sense. Yeah.

It's not, not so much that you don't think that they are deserving of, of their status atop pitcher rankings. It's more just preference in how you build the roster that you just wanna go the other direction instead. I'm finding that if I'm at the end of round one, I'm actually sidestepping Francisco Lindor, not for any particular reason, but because when I look at Lindor versus Julio Rodriguez,

or I look at Lindor versus Jackson Churio, or Jordan Alvarez, compared to the other hitters. I like all the other hitters just a little bit more. And it's weird because I feel like in the years when Lindor is more of like an end of round two beginning around three player end up with a lot of Lindor, because I think he's really safe, but just feels like we're paying a slight tax. Extra extra little price on Lindor right now that I'm not particularly comfortable with. I wonder if part of that's like also some strange stuff that happens in his projection.

Two of the last three seasons, he's hit 270 or better. The projections are all for 260 and under in the batting average department. So maybe that's weighted into some of the calculators and the projections and things I'm looking at. But I just keep finding that I give myself a reason to do something else. Even though Lindor is just so stable. I mean, he's doing things that you want some of those younger guys to do more consistently. So I totally understand the, well, why wouldn't you just take the guy that already does it?

A little bit of his age, a little bit of it's the possible batting average downside. And I mean, look, almost back to back 30, 30 seasons. He was one steel short of doing that for the second straight year. And it feels like picking nits, but that's what I'm doing when the clock's actually ticking and I'm looking at those options. Because I think even though we have those concerns about Jordan Alvarez's legs,

I look at Alvarez and I still see that sort of Aaron Judge ceiling. And I feel like it's too hard to pass that up, even though Lindor does something for you across the board in all five categories. Yeah in the listener league that we have strikeouts by the batter is a category and I went with I believe Julio Rodriguez first so I thought Lindor was a pretty good pairing I was at 15 and when you introduce categories like that, it does change your evaluation of the player. You know, the doors ability to slug while not striking out and steal bases made a lot of sense

in our league where strikeouts by the batters are category and also x-race hits and stolen bases are still a category. So it makes it hard. When if you're in leagues where slugging percentage is a category and stolen bases, think about where you're getting your stolen bases. It's really hard to get stolen bases from guys who slut. So you're going to have to go, go through it and project out slugging and circle all the guys who have 20 or more stolen bases and try to get a few of those. Because a few of those

because a lot of the stolen base guys are gonna tank your slugging percentage. I can't wait to just look silly for sidestepping Francisco Lindor in some leagues though. That's gonna be one of the low key best parts of the 2025 season when he goes 30-30 again. And I'm like, oh, great. I tried to get too cute with it

and I dealt with the Alvarez knee problems or whatever, whatever the mistake ends up being. Yeah. I mean, I feel the same way in the third and fourth rounds. If we, if that's still early rounders that we might be side stepping in, I'm looking through and I've made the decision to go picture or go in a different direction, maybe Machado over Michael Harris. And, um, I've made that decision a couple of times, so I guess I'm

sidestepping Michael Harris. Uh, you've convinced me a little bit about, you know, some of the stuff. He hasn't necessarily gotten better in every successive season. We haven't really seen growth from him. We've also seen a lot of injury risk. Um, but he's the kind of guy that could put together a season where next year he's a first rounder, right? It's like, just could do, it could be a mistake if we just if he has a full season, he goes

basically 30 30 like he has that kind of talent. There are people and sites out there that are people I believe and trust that see the breakout coming from Harris and all I all I could say was yeah, I like him too. But why isn't he getting better? It was more of a question than a pure critique. I do have Harris in a couple of leagues. I'm not sidestepping him, but I'm I'm less confident in the future. First round ceiling, I guess I think is like the paint paint with other colors.

They don't don't just take one side or the other. Like, you know, the middle ground is just kind of like, Hey, it might not happen as quickly as we'd like. Yeah. I mean, I think you've sold me on that honestly. And then, you know, in the third, third round and fourth rounds, um, in the third round in particular in 15 team leagues, I'm not in on the closer. That's a main event type thing where they, they do, uh, do that. I don't think you need to do that in 10 and 12 leagues.

I mean, obviously the math is different. We're talking about, um, you know, nearly the, yeah, we're talking about picks after 40, so if you're in a 10 or 12 team league already, that's not the third round. Um, you're talking more about the, the fourth round and after, um, even then I don't love the idea of a 10 and 12, the, the, the, it being in a 10 and 12 team league and taking a closer in the fourth round. I know there's a lot of strikeout upside and he can help you if you took like a Corbin burns, it might help to take like a Josh hater to like also get, uh, the

strikeout goodness, but, um, I just have some good confidence that stuff plus is very good for relievers that Felix Bautista will be there later, that John Duran will be there later. And we do have a question specific about closer. So I don't want to go too long about that, but, um, the third round closer is a, another thing I have not been doing any of. I've been trying not to do it whenever possible. I think the earliest I took a closer so far this draft season was the fourth

round of the labor draft. If I remember correctly, that was the DeGrom Mason Miller combo. If memory serves. Jesus. Why not? Why not? I just love it, dude. It's so not me.

I mean, I think draft strategies is our best pairings. We're just have different ones. It's great. And you probably know, you're like, Hey, whoa, whoa, settle down. We are the Yolo. That's how this show works. We had a bunch of questions kind of related to these ideal builds. A giant Tom Bombadil wanted to know when you're drafting your first picture,

like what goes into your decision to drafting an ace? Any tips or strategies? Any particular person you try to target? I mean, Burns for a little while. Cause you had a lot of Corbin Burns at the early part of draft season. Um, like what's, what's been your most common or your preferred way to go with your first pitcher? Like that third, that third, fourth round range.

Yeah, I've been trying to get one really good starting pitcher that is in my top 15. Actually I've been trying to get somebody who's in my top 10 and even in a 15 team league, I want to have an above average ace or at least an average ace. And, and so I've gotten some cease in the main event. I got cease. I've gotten some corn burns. Corn burns was, I thought was a good draft and hold pitcher because I thought the innings would be there even if the strikeouts were, you know, by rate weren't necessarily there.

I do have a crochet build where I went and then got, I think, Logan Webb to pair with him because I wanted to kind of reduce my risk a little bit by taking a higher end second pitcher. But, you know, in the main event, I took Cease and Fromber, which I have both in my top 10 because I just couldn't resist getting two top 10 guys. And also I felt they were a little bit of the yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo together. You know, cease has bad years, but as the strikeouts from her is just a steady Eddie ticking, uh, tick talking every year. So usually, I mean, that's basically in a nutshell, it's try to get the one of the later end of the top 10. And so it's been different guys in different builds, but it's rare that I get anybody in my top five other than that time I got

crochet and I just want to get one in like the fourth round. I've been trying to do like three hitters, uh, and then, uh, basically a starting pitcher and then a closer that's been my regular build. So it'll be burns or C's or somebody. And then a lot of, um, Munoz or Duran and the fifth. Yeah, that's the ideal bill. Doesn't always go that way. Sometimes there's some runs that happen and you end up having to go to the backup plan.

I think the plan I've been implementing the most is waiting a little bit longer, being comfortable with the lower innings aces that bring great ratios, even taking a lot of Dodgers pitching despite the limited number of two star weeks you're going to get from them. If you're in a daily league, that is not a concern at all. If you're in a weekly league, it should be part of your calculation. I've been, even in some instances, trying to stack multiple Dodgers on rosters because I feel like there's the surplus win potential. I feel like the elite ratios are there. And if you have kind of a mix of a couple early with a few late options, you're also kind of building in the injury replacements

along the way as well, which is, you know, fun until someone actually gets hurt. And then you're looking at it and going, wait, why did I sign up for this? I knew this was going to happen. Now I have to deal with the tightness that comes from holding onto injured players in leagues that don't have IELTS spots. But I think it's okay to wait a little longer for an ace if the runs don't happen that way. The way I've corrected for it is if, for example, a Snell or Yamamoto or even Glasnow, who I have a lot of, if one of those guys is my first starting pitcher,

I'm probably taking a few from that next cluster to make sure I've got enough quality depth behind them. I think when you get your second, third, and fourth pitchers changes a lot depending on who your ace is and how aggressively you pursue them there. So that's the adjustment I tend to make. Your rankings are going to, are going to change how you draft, but you know, one thing I have noticed is I've been trying to get innings out of my first guy.

Um, and since I have innings out of my first guy, I'm looking for my second guy to drop and I haven't really found that glass now freed Yamamoto, Roki, or maybe Striders kind of rising right now with this, uh, with his pitching, I haven't found really a good spot to pair those with my, um, you know, more stable first guy. Um, a lot of those guys kind of go just a little bit higher than I want. So, um, I haven't ended up with a lot of shares of those guys kind of go just a little bit higher than i want so i haven't ended up with a lot of shares of those guys like glass now in particular. But one thing that i like about your strategy is and what i don't like your strategies that i don't like.

little pocket I don't really love. And it might just be my rankings, but it's the pocket right after the high risk guys. So I have these like kind of oatmeal-y, uh, good projections. I don't know why I don't like them necessarily, but Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Luis Castillo, Freddie Peralta, Aaron Nola, Michael King, Tanner Bybee. That's a whole stretch of pitchers that I have very little of. Um, and they go higher than I want. They're just not excited. I don't think they can be, I don't think they can be aces anymore.

You know, I think they can be good number twos. Maybe they're fine where they are, but I took a first guy that I thought was, was pretty fine. And so for my second guy, I'm looking, I'd rather just take that time off and take hitters. And what I end up doing is coming back in and start shopping with Brian Wu and Shane McClanahan and Spencer Schwalenbach and Ryan Pepio and Christopher Sanchez, guys that I think could become aces and are also

pretty projectable, you know what I mean? So the way that I've chosen to do it is by being a little bit less risk taking with my first one. I priced myself out of, you know, those Pablo Lopez types and I take a break and I come back in with more risk. I just feel like I would rather have my first guy have less risk and then take a bunch of risks later. Like that's why I have 8 million shares of Ryan Pepeo.

I'm not saying that he's risk less. and then take a bunch of risks later. Like that's why I have eight million shares of Ryan Pepeo. I'm not saying that he's risk less. I'm not saying he's a lock. I would never say that on these airs. Nobody's a lock, you know? But if you've taken someone that you think is like, it has a less risky profile, like maybe, maybe you want to see sort of definitely a Corbin Burns, then your second pitcher, you can start taking on risk, which is why I like that.

I like to then be like, hey, I can take risk with the rest of my staff because I feel like my ace is good. Yeah, basically just flipping the order and maybe saying, you know, fun, high ceiling, high variance, and then floor, floor, and then kind of going back to that more. And that, and that works too, because like glass now isn't as expensive, Maybe it should be.

Right. That's what I'm trying to take advantage of the slight miss prices within the market. I feel like there are a few of them and that's what I've been doing throughout the draft season. Problem is you become like heavily saturated with rosters with the same handful of guys on it. If that guy gets hurt, then your whole season is a, yeah, gonna hinge on how well you drafted your depth and then how well you manage the waiver wire.

Thanks a lot for that question, Tom. You mentioned before the closer question, and I was just looking at the ADP for Yahoo, too, because I know we're very NFBC centric. We talked a lot about the main event stuff earlier in the week and how that that's even like another level of let's push closers even harder. But even the Yahoo ADPs for relievers are higher than I would expect. I haven't played in leagues on Yahoo very often in recent years, but I think

it's a good snapshot of a place people play where there's a different draft room and different formats and different things. There's still three, six, nine, 10. There's at least like 15, maybe even 20-ish relievers that go in the first 150 picks. And we were talking earlier about Felix Bautista. He's in that circle for me, right? So the circle of trust, Emmanuel Classe, even if we're worried about workloads, we're just talking about skills. Who has the job and who's good?

Classe, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller, Reisle Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, Felix Bautista, Joe Anderan. So Reisle's not in my circle of trust. Reisle's not in yours. He's in mine. He's, he's the guy. Like they don't have enough pressure in that bullpen on him.

And he's, his skills are still holding up better than you'd expect. I know, I know. I someday I'll be right when he's like 42. Uh, well he's your Whitmaryfield. Yeah. But I tried to illustrate it in color and leaderboard fashion.

So what I did was I took all of the guys by Oopsy that are projected for 10 saves. And then I sorted them by ERA in it, by projected ERA. And this is, Oopsy has Stuff by projected ERA and this is oopsie has stuff plus in it. So this is a way of using stuff plus to sort my closers and it popped for me because it's Diaz, Munoz, Duran, Classe, Bautista, Williams, Helsey at the top. I'm like that is my circle of trust.

You circle, you can just circle that top and just be like that is it. That's it. Because when you get down to like Scott Walker, not all of a sudden you're getting those ERAs are closer to three. Uh, there's some question with Scott about what the playing time share will be. Uh, with, you know, Jeff Hoffman, there's a question about health, Pete Paramec's health, Deval's not even the closer there. Um, and so that's why I kind of have Josh Hader as just a guy that every year

I'm like, is he in my circle of trust? Or isn't he? I think he is, but like, he's, isn't he, hasn't he almost lost his job twice or lost his job for like a couple of weeks twice? Hader? Yes. I mean, the San Diego instance, I think was the main one that I remember. Was there a second one? I think he was bad in Houston for like a few weeks. You know? But with that contract, it's not gonna happen. Yeah.

He's just, he's extremely safe because of his contract. He strikes me as a little bit like Diaz, where like, you know, he has bad command and, you know, like the year that Diaz had where he was just bad is like possible for Hader. And so, Hader's in, Hader in haters in that's my circle of trust. It was illustrated kind of perfectly by oopsie with just just hater being like, Oh, look, look at hater down

there. And then I'm okay with one. You're okay with one from this group and then taking your shots later. Okay, so I yeah, like I'm okay with one closer that is assured of a job and then, you know, two or three guys that like, I've got builds where I've just got, you know, John Duran and AJ Puck and, you know, two guys that aren't closers yet. Yeah. Well, part of that is that there are still some, some job battles to be decided. That's, that's F factor in, in all of this too.

And I would say the Arizona Closer battle, which we may not get an answer to. I saw a report from Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com. It's 98.7 FM. It's one of the local radio stations out there. And their manager, Tori Lovullo, saying that they are probably holding off on naming a Closer before the season.

Went through the usual, like all my guys guys and we'll play the matchups. And even if they gravitate towards someone, we're probably not going to know who it is between now because they lie game that counts. They love the lie. It's not like it's giving anything away. You still have to plan to face those guys. If you're going to start playing and they'll still be they'll still get

they'll get on the mound eventually. It can't be like, no, he's not on the mound. You're still going to have a plan for what you're going to do against them, regardless of what inning you see them in. So I don't think it's like this tactical. It's a secret. Like it's just, I don't know if keeping everybody in suspense at the bullpen is somehow fun for them or just just respect for the players that you're not like debating their roles in public. Yeah, maybe.

You don't want to be like early in spring be like, Bednar's our closer. And then two weeks later be like, well, I don't know. Do you'd rather be like, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. We're still thinking about it.

We're still thinking about it until you're very sure. So I think that's part of it. But, um, I mean, you make a good point. I think in that, uh, that first of all, like, you know, there's a lot of noise in the, in what we're trying to figure out who has the roles or not. And the signal is hard there. Um, the second one is, um, uh, so all pitchers have a 40% chance of ending up on the IL at some point this season.

That's just, that's, that's a hard rock number, but then also 40% of saves come from the waiver wire. Um, okay. In almost any league. Um, you can do something like look at your, if you have draft and holds, look at your draft and holds, like what the sales totals are that like lead those and then look at leagues that have FAB and compare them. And it's, it's about 40% difference. There's you can do fine in a draft and hold with like 60 saves, you know, even 50,

like 50 and 40, you're doing fine, but in other leagues. So what I'm saying is if I know there's 40% out there to be had, I'm just, I'm gonna participate in that 40%. I'm gonna try and nail one and try to buy the others. I do think the shallower the league, the more comfortable I am, there's fewer teams to compete with. That's, that like shifts me a little bit. I was really into both Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman

earlier in draft season, their prices, like everybody's prices have gone up. And I think I would still like to get two, where I get one from the first group we talked about. And then if we're not putting the likes of Scott and Hoffman, or Trevor McGill into that circle of trust, if they're still sitting out there at like pick 120 to 150, I might be okay getting a second one there. I've done some fair banks. I know the injury risk is bad, but when he's in, he's in, he's probably the closer, you know? So there are some second level closers I got in the,

in the main event we did Hoffman and puck. And to go back to your Arizona question, if I had to pick one, I think you've convinced me puck. Justin Martins is a little bit of wild. He's got a little bit of the hair in the nose sort of situation. So I know that puck doesn't have the most amazing command either, but he's been dominant as a reliever.

So I think- He's on a different level as a reliever. Yeah, I'm picking Puck. That's what, for I'm at on that one too. And it's a reminder we've, I think for years in this show sort of lacked the idea that pitchers couldn't be used for roles that for, you know, between one and five, like if you're either a short reliever

or you're a starter, well, you could also be useful in saves even if you're not getting 30 of them, right? There are numbers between zero and 30. So if it's a 35 save team and it's 26 to nine or something, that's still useful for both of those guys. If there's enough strikeouts and good ratios to go along with it. Yeah. And this, this is illustrated every year.

When you run the auction calculate at the end of the year to look at earned value and there's to go along with it. Yeah. And this is illustrated every year when you run the auction calc at the end of the year to look at earned value. And there's always a Tyler Holden. There's always somebody who has like five saves and five wins and a one ERA. And it's not easy to spot those guys ahead of time. So I'm not saying you should draft those. But when you have somebody who's Puck, who's probably

going to have a great ERA and a lot of strikeouts and at least five saves and at least five wins. You can say that guy's likely to be a top 30 reliever, top 20 reliever, even if he doesn't get the job, just like what you said, you know? So it's like, you know, the deeper the league is, the more I can be like, is AJ puck a good pitcher that I want in my lineup this week in my best nine? Yeah. Yeah. And would he maybe get me a save or a win or whatever it is?

Yeah. So there's times when AJ puck, like imagine AJ puck, who's not the closer versus Jordan Hicks for a week. Jordan Hicks might start once go five strikeout three, not get the win. AJ puck might pitch three times, get six strikeouts. Might get you a win. I could you win my. Go away. Make it nothing.

That's also possible, too. But yeah, it's it's a it's a good point in those deeper mixed leagues, especially I think in more shallow leagues. Maybe those guys have a little less value, but I've come around to the hey, take the chance and use them when you have to, they'll actually be okay as your ninth pitcher in. Now streaming. What do you know about the happy face killer? He's my father.

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The other question as it goes to position depth is which position is the deepest, which one have you been waiting on the most because you say, yeah, it's fine. I've waited 10 rounds and I I'm okay with these guys as my starters. Like have you had a position or possibly two that you have started to consistently wait on and maybe it's because of another position that runs pretty thin. Like how are you, are you playing a scarcity game at any particular spots? I do not like late third baseman.

I love late third baseman. Why don't you like them? I mean, I guess late is a definition, you know. No, late, late, late. I like, okay, I like Josh Young at pick 200. You mentioned Aronado before. He goes late. I guess some of that pick 200. You mentioned Aronado before. I guess late. Well, I guess some of that's born of in draft and hold season, like third, third

baseman are just awful and terrible and really hard, you know, uh, but in more of a sort of 10, 12, 15 teams starting environment, yeah, I'm okay with Aronado late, I joy or tease, uh, has been a late starter for me, um, and, um, you know, so there is, there's something going on there. That's fine. Um, but I do think there's some landmines. I don't know what my, my Cal Garcia's project projections are always going to be good, but he's playing center field.

And I don't know what that means that he's going to take over center field, or if he's going to become a utility guy or what's happening, he does not, you know, Jeff Zimmerman has a, an OPS rule. Even if you don't have OPS in your league, uh, circle guys with a below 700 OPS projection because they can lose their jobs. I think most teams are looking for at least a 700 OPS from most of their positions. And, um, you know, guys like Michael Garcia can get uncomfortably close to that number. Now, of course, if you're Connor Norbury in Miami, um, you're probably just getting the

full year to figure it out. So maybe it doesn't matter exactly what your projected OPS is, but, um, you know, I think it, I think it does. Man, then like super late, I just like Veerling, Candelario, Isaiah, Caia, and Falefa, like a lot of those guys I don't like. So I do get nervous about third base in pockets. I guess you can, you can wait on that. Um, shortstop is good for a long time.

Now, if you want to get to, then that's fine. You do have to want, I think you want to do it in your top 20 and it does get bad after 20. So, but the thing that's nice about shortstop is they're young, they're athletic. They're, they're the best players on the field most of the time. So, you know, if you want to do your MI out of a shortstop, Dancy Swanson is falling. I don't know why Dancy Swanson and Xander Bogarts and Jeremy

Pena are always available, but if you want to get a stud shortstop at the top and then supplement it with another shortstop in the Swanson Bogarts Pena are always available. But if you want to get a stud shortstop at the top and then supplement it with another shortstop in the Swanson Bogart's Pena range, I think you've done a good, a good service to your team. Yeah. Shortstop depth is, is good up until about that point. I could look at the Carlos Correa line and say, okay, that's, that's about the last per game shortstop that I trust to be every day when healthy.

After that, it's guys that are going to move around a bit more, guys that have even worse injury histories than Correa, like Trevor Story goes a little bit later. A lot of utility guys start to creep into the conversation or maybe guys that won't even hit enough to be everyday players. It's generally a deep enough group. I've found that Xavier Edwards is on none of my teams. I'm never close to drafting him. There's a group of middle infielders like Luis Franjito, Xavier Edwards, Bryce Terang. I never draft those guys.

I got one share of Terang and I immediately took another second baseman because I was so nervous. Yeah. You're just trying to protect yourself. It's not even like, it's not that I expect him to lose his job. He's a phenomenal defender. But like 50 stolen bases. Yeah.

It's a little bit like the Michael Garcia where it's like, that bat leaves a lot to be desired. Well, let me put you on the spot then. What position are you most afraid of the bottom? I think I'm looking at it right now. First base, maybe the bottom, the bottom at first base. After that Pascantino Casas area does get a little bit iffy. Yeah.

There's a few players I like sprinkled in any position. You can find something, but I think I get more nervous about the idea of. Almost any one of, you know, Yandy doesn't have enough power. I know he's a good player and Luis Rias. I don't want to use those guys as starting first baseman. Steers hurt. Steers hurt.

Hoskins might hit two 10. Bush doesn't actually have good, uh, bad ball stats. And with Bush, they added Justin Turner. So you kind of worried that the platoon is going to be there. I like Tyler Soderstrom. But that's like more of a sleeper. Like if he's starting for you at CI or something, I feel like you've messed up a little bit.

Yeah. I just, I look at a lot of the players that position and I see the various warts and I see that as a position defensively where their organizations are usually willing to share playing time and I just see a lot of down arrows with that group especially. So I do see a bit of a cliff. It's probably after Paul Goldschmidt for me. I think there's still enough oatmeal-y goodness in that ballpark. His down year, his decline last year, it's real but it's not so extreme that it's unusable

as like a fringe 150 overall pick, but I would feel better coming out of it with Berger, like the worst case is like Nailor Berger, Walker, Casas, like get somebody out of that. You know, yeah. Goltzman himself is like, you know, we just talked about the projections for, for bounce back projections. He's 37. So like, maybe it's okay if talked about the projections for, for bounce back projections. He's 37. So like maybe it's okay if he just does, we does last year and hits two 50, 22 homers and Levin

stolen bases. Like that actually would be okay. And of course he has more upside than that with a nicer park for his skillset and a possibly probably good lineup. Um, but, um, I think even Goldschmidt, I've got Goldschmidt as my first baseman in a couple of places, he's our main event for a space. I think he's out with a back right now. He's 37, you know, like how often is he going to do that?

So I prefer Naylor burger Walker, uh, Pasquantino Casas as like, I'm going to get somebody from there. And if I get somebody from there, that means that my CI is probably a third baseman. Um, cause I don't want to shop unless I get too out of that group. I don't want to shop in, I don't want to shop in the later groups. Second base also makes me a little nervous. Um, I like more Morrell and Gelof a little bit because they hit the ball hard. They steal bases, but they can wreck your batting average.

And there is a non-zero chance that they get sent down or don't play every day. Like they're, they're not, they're flawed players, you know, um, even their projections on fan graphs have them for 500 played appearances. So that tells you something about like, Oh, you know, so they're exciting, but flawed. And then you got Cronenworth is so boring and he's ended up on a lot of my teams cause he's so boring and he's first base, second base. And that's fine for me.

But, um, then there's Michael Garcia, Brandon Lau, if you're in a, uh, in a, uh, weekly league, he's not going to play against lefties. Most likely he hasn't so far. And there's Brandon Donovan, who's like a kind of profiles as a, like a really good utility player on a team that's going young. And then Bryce Turing, Nico Horner's hurt. Willie Castro is a utility guy. Ranjifo should be a starter because it's the angels, but he's also been a utility guy. And I think they're talking like he might be a utility guy. Renhifo should be a starter because it's the angels, but he's also been

a utility guy. And I think they're talking like he might be a utility guy again, you know? And then you get to, um, you know, Colt, Colt Keith and Tara Strada and Gavin Lux. They're a little bit exciting, you know, as sleepers, but like I would, I would feel bad if they were my starting MI or something. So second base, um, that's why I have so many shares of Andre's Jimenez and Bryson Stott, and I, you know, we had somebody in the discord, you know, talking about India, India is the guy that I have circled as the last chance. So I circle Jimenez, Stott and India. And I'm like, I need one of these.

And I ended up taking Jimenez and Stott before I have to take India. But some people like India and I think the Royals will run pretty wild. Um, I don't really think that's a great lineup though. So I don't think he's going to get a lot of runs in RBI. Honestly, I don't think it's a good lineup and I don't think he'll hit any homers. So it's, um, it's not my favorite play there. I'd rather have Jimenez or stock. I have those guys circled as being almost the same guy.

Like if you think about it, and that's why I ended up with a lot of him in as a stock, cause I'm afraid of second base. Honestly, I'm afraid of late second base. I'm less afraid of it than you are. I think I like Colt Keith as a breakthrough guy this year. Well, he did a season ago. Gleyber is going to play a ton. He's cheap.

It's very openly at this point. Like a Detroit hitter has to be great, I think. And I'm not sure Gleyber Torres is great. No, he's definitely not great, but I think it's a, it's a low K rate sort of profile. It's an everyday job. It's a lineup that could be a little bit of a, a riser as a collective group. So I think the counting stats will be, I think last year

is actually a pretty good indicator of what Torres is more likely to do. If you gave him another year at Yankee stadium and he hit 15 homers again with that much playing time, I would have been shocked. So I think we saw the floor last year. I'll say that he's going to do better than what he did last year.

And I think he's just going to probably did last year. I think, I think, I think the saw the floor last year. But the projections all say that he's going to do better than what he did last year. And I think he's just going to do what he did last year. I think, I think, I think the ballpark now, Comerica just, like, it softens the rebound. The rebound might've been 22 homers if he was in Yankee stadium, it's going to be like 18 because it's Comerica. But I think the average will be fine. It won't hurt you. The runs will be surprisingly good. The RBIs won't be that terrible.

And he may even run a little bit again, right? Cause he took the pillow deal. So I think we could just see a slightly different version of Glaber, even though, you know, the park and lineup have been downgraded for him. Good oatmeal. Good, good oatmeal. Outfield is obviously by its nature, the deepest position because it's. You know, it's three positions and there's four, you know?

Um, and, um, but you, it becomes skinnier because you have to fill five, you know, most in most settings. So I don't think there's a one size all outfield strategy. I I've tried multiple different strategies. I've had teams where I invested pretty heavily and took like two outfielders in the first five rounds. You know, I think I even started outfield outfield first, second round in one bill, you know, and I didn't like that because I think, Oh, there's always outfielders at the end, but you know, there are guys

in the outfield, there's just amazing hitters and they're just really, really good. And you'll find guys like Taylor ward and Brian Reynolds will fall in every draft because they're boring, but they're good boring. They're definitely good oatmeal. And so, you know, I think. I'll fit as the kind of thing where I go into my queue. I think queue management is one of the biggest things in fantasy. You know, I go into my outfield, you're creating tiers basically as the draft

is going and what I'll do is I'll do this where I go across all positions and be like, how many $10 players are left by the auction calculator? And I'll get all the $10 plays that are left on the auction. I'm going to put it in my queue and then I'll sort through calculator and I'll get all the $10 players that are left on the auction calculator, I'll put it in my queue and then I'll sort through it and I'll be like, oh, actually there's like five outfielders. So maybe I'll just try to wait and get that last $10 outfielder. But you know, sometimes you find that there's only one $10 outfielder left and that's when you take Brian Reynolds or that's when you take Taylor Ward or whatever it is.

So I think that outfield is something where you just, you gotta be flexible. If you, you sometimes it makes sense to go in because nobody else is doing it and everyone's like, oh, there's gotta be outfielders late. And you're just like, I have the studliest outfield of all time. Let me see what my best outfield is while you like,

what do you, what's your, what's been your outfield strategy? Like you have tried a couple of different things where I've said, I don't care if I have two's been your outfield strategy? Like you have tried a couple of different things where I've said, I don't care if I have two or three early outfielders, but they're the best available players, the best available players. I think I like my teams better when I don't do that. So it just depends on the room and draft position, I guess,

as far as whether I'm actually going to follow through. The reason why I like leaving outfield spots open, like four and five, especially you want to have those available after pick 200 in a lot of leagues because whatever category you need, it's generally still available in the outfield because there's so many different types of players out there. You need some speed? Cool. Jake McCarthy's out there. You need power? Okay. Jorge Saler is there around pick 200. You need speed later? Maybe you're looking at like a TJ Friedl for 15 or 20 bags and some power. Oh, you want big time power. Matt Walner sitting there instead of TJ Friedle.

Oh, you want a guy that almost went 30 30 on a per game basis two years ago. Nolan Jones is out there as a sleeper. Like there's just a little bit of everything categorically speaking. It's not like shortstop where they're generally a little bit less power, a little bit more speed. You know what I mean? Like it's not. Yeah. And that's part of my fear at first base too, is like the categorical juices, you know what you're going to get. Like it's, it's kind of, kind of obvious. It's like a 240, 20 and.

And if you don't take part and you're like, I just have Yandy and you're like, then you're like 15 homers behind everybody else because they all got 30 homer first baseman. Right. So there's just a couple of little quarks of first base that I think the outfield doesn't exist because you're talking about center fielders and corner mashers and guys that just have very different skill sets as offensive players that all play the same positions defensively, at least how they're categorized as just general outfielders.

I think my best outfield might be my main event outfield is Jackson Merrill, Brian Reynolds, Ian Happ, Lars Newpar and Jake Fraley. Yeah, that was pretty much like every chunk. And then like Fraley is like maybe a streamer, see what happens sort of guy. But if that's the worst player in your starting lineup, then you're probably going to be okay. Yeah. By the time you're taking your, and most of my fifth outfielders are pretty iffy. I guess I have a draft champions where it's

Jackson Merrill, Brandon Nimmo, Cedric Mullins, Nolan Jones and Kyle Tucker. That might be my best one. Oh, that's your best one. Yeah. Kyle Tucker. He has not. I should have started with him.

He was up there. I was like, where's my fifth one? It's Tucker. I'm still wondering if. That's when I started Tucker Merrill. I started Tucker Merrill. Yeah. And that's fine. I just have a great outfield. Nolan Jones Tucker Merrill. I started Tucker Merrill. Yeah.

And that's fine. I just have a great outfield. Nolan Jones is my fifth. I feel good about that. Couple of quick questions before we go cause we are gonna get you to your chat on time. I promise. We had a mailbag question.

Who are some of your favorite pitchers who might miss the roster cut at the end of spring or possibly lose a job battle? Looking for some guys with close proximity for dynasty targets, minor spots, bench spots. Question came from Eagles19 in our discord. I thought this was a question about six starters that weren't making it in particular. So I just took the six starters that I liked the best. I didn't try to do some fancy query. I just was like look through all the depth charts and was like these guys, I don't think are making the big leagues

fancy query, I just was like, look through all the depth charts and was like, these guys, I don't think are making the big leagues. And I like most of them, uh, depending on price, of course. Andrew painter is the guy that everyone knows, you know, I don't have to tell you about that. Uh, I think that David Festa and Zabby Matthews are not making it, uh, because Chris Paddock just pitched, uh, I think he got seven strikeouts and four innings and was sitting 97 and. Touched 111, according to Statcast. That might've been a loose wire.

Like, wow, he really hasn't taken the criticism very nicely. This is like firing them up. But you know, with options and like, you know, where he stands contractually, I feel like they're just going to send Zebi and Festa down. I think maybe Zebi has passed Festa. going to send Zebi and Festa down. I think maybe Zebi has passed Festa. So I like Zebi a little bit better. Maybe it's at spring stuff.

Plus number I have over there. Um, I think Logan Henderson with Milwaukee might, they might need to use him cause DL Hall is hurt. They have some injury issues. Um, you know, Ms. Arowski could be on this list as well, but I think maybe Logan Henderson's. I had, I don't ahead. I don't know. I don't know that one for sure.

Quinn Matthews is one of my, actually one of my favorite six starters. I won't make it. Um, I I've turned around on him. I thought he was boring, but one thing that is nice about him is he does have a wide arsenal and he has decent command and the spring stuff numbers are good. I think he's pretty polished and he's going to land in a pictures park. So that's something I like about Quinn Matthews. Hayden Birdsong might make the rotation.

Um, wait, what? He is? I thought it was Rup. I think it's Rup. I think it's Rup. I don't, I don't know what it is. They're, they're still talking about Hicks making the rotation. I would say, Hey, your bullpen could be really amazing if you had Hicks, the rotation, I would say, Hey, your bullpen could be really amazing

if you had Hicks, Deval, Ryan Walker, Randy Rodriguez, like that could be, and Tyler Rogers, that could be, I've teased that already, but I'm. Yeah. Yep. That's what I would do. I think I'd put Birdsong and Rupin because you'd still have Carson Wissenhunt. You'd still have some depth there and you have Kyle Harrison just hanging out in the miners.

So, um, I think they could both make it, but I think most likely as Hicks and Roop, just the way they, they had Roop come in and just do the start of progression all the way through Roop could start tomorrow. You know what I mean? And so anyway, whoever doesn't make it between birdsong and Roop is on this list. Joy Cantillo is a change up first guy with bad command. Um, I don't know, uh, that I love, love him, but I like him a lot.

And I think that Cleveland's going to have to go to him at some point. I don't think they'll do it right away. Smith's Schaver is on that list. There's some good ones. Oh, by the way, Jake Bloss, great spring stuff numbers. And he's, he's probably the sixth starter in Toronto, right? Yeah, I like that Buffalo roster a lot. It's interesting players that they've got stockpiled as depth and the job battle that

I feel like I overlooked throughout this draft season is actually third base for the Blue Jays because it's Ernie Clement versus Addison Barger. They do very different things. We had some people here in the fall telling us like, Hey, Ernie Clements, we've got a little more going on with the bat and you're giving him credit for there is like double digit power, double-digit speed goal. You got a gold glove nomination too at third base. He, I think he's just going to make it.

Yeah. And he makes so much content. He makes so much contact. Yeah. I think he's just, I think he's got the job. So Barger is somebody that might go on this list as like a sick starter type, like, you know, go back down and he gets the next shot at something.

Or you might go play in the outfield because if Loper Fito is playing center, well, VAR shows out Barger could play left. And then basically Barger versus Loper Fito becomes a battle for playing time since Barger does occasionally play in the outfield. Barger is yoked dude. I don't know if you've seen it.

Yeah man. I don't think I've seen a more yoked guy this spring. Barger is a tank out there for sure. Last question as we go, is there any injured player, any prospect that you think is worth waiting for in redraft? Like a discounted player or a rookie that might not play right away that you are trying to stash away on your rosters in the vein of a D should you draft a Christian Campbell? Is there, is there anybody out there that you think is, is underpriced despite their

current path to playing time? Actually, I think Christian can, I do have a share of him and I do think that Christian Campbell is, um, cheap enough now where I was going to do that. I have actually been very boring. I've been preferring guys, especially in the new environment with the new rules with regards to, um, you know, playing time service time and, and, you know, getting that they, they all want to keep that rookie bonus, but they want to give them a taste so that they might win rookie of the year, the next year you get

a draft pick if the, if the team wins, if the, if the player wins rookie of the year for you. So what I've, what I've seen from usage is high top prospects do get some September time, keep their rookie eligibility and then start playing the next year full time. And so those have been players, um, that I would, and I know that James Wood doesn't qualify for rookie anymore, but it's that kind of Dylan Cruz, right? That kind of player I've been more likely to buy on because we've seen something in the major leagues.

We have some numbers on them. Guys who've never played the major leagues before that, um, you know, that we think will debut this year and put a lot of played appearances together. I think I might have zero. I don't know who, who was even on that list. Chris and Campbell had that one share, but. Yeah. Campbell, Roman Anthony, Cam Smith, they're all, they're all clustered together too. Cam Smith might be who Rodriguez is in here right now, where he's just playing so well.

That doesn't matter what he's done. The miners, they, he plays in a position of need. And I think Cam Smith is probably he's worth it, but he's also can't so I think Kristen Campbell costs actual he's worth it, but he's also Cam Smith and Kirsten Campbell cost actual money. You know what I mean? So what I've done a lot of is like, I have Noel V Marte and Jacob Melton. I mean, it's, I'm not telling you to do that.

Cutting it thin. Yeah. Don't, don't follow that advice. Well, this is like a, uh, also like a draft and hold type stuff, you know? Yeah. Yeah. Very different scenario, but you're drafting this weekend, just looking for that last, who's the high ceiling dart throw?

It's probably Smith. It's Smith. And then Campbell, because there's still time on him getting it. If there's a ranking, it's Smith, Campbell. I think Anthony, they have a lot going on in that outfield. Because I still have Sedan Rafaela, who might not have a starting job.

So I think Roman Anthony has a little bit more of a road to. I think on the pitching side, it's Bubba Chandler for me. I think the injuries they've got with the Jared Jones situation, like the door could open sooner for Chandler. So I think if you're going to stash one prospect or two, just, I'm worried that Thomas Harrington is ahead of him. Right. But also that depth chart, even when Jared Jones was healthy, was still questionable enough at the back end where it's either like a Hine injury or a

Bailey Falter was, it was on there as the number five. Like there's a, there's a world in which Harrington and Chandler are both in that rotation where it's like Skeens, Keller, Heaney, Harrington, Chandler. Right. Cause of falter. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. So it, they, they could both make it at, you know, within like a month or two.

We talked about painter as a stash, but he's not going to pitch major league innings until mid season. Um, be such a good stash though. Like, well, in like an IL situation, if he gets placed on the IL, but he might just be in the behind minors. Yeah. If you have an NA spot though, like, well, in like an IL situation if he gets placed on the IL, but he might just be in the minors. Yeah. If you have an NA spot though, Jackson Jobe might make the opening day rotation. He's probably, I mean, it's him or Chandler and I think Jobe is slightly closer to taking

it. Like right now it's probably, I'm saying it's Casey Meis in the rotation, Cater Montero to the minor leagues and Joe versus Maeda for the fifth spot, which sounds like give it to the kid, but you never know. I mean, they might Jackson jobs still only has like a 17, 18% strikeout rate this spring. Maybe they say, can you nudge that up to league average before we call you up?

Um, and my ADA, like they start my aid as a starter and then they move by the bullpen, which has happened so many times in my career. So it could just be about the shape of the season where Job goes down for a little bit and, uh, has foreign starts where they're, you know, they're working on getting more strikeouts or whatever it is. Um, I think that's. Is that probable? I, I, that's, I think that's 51%.

That's 51%. That's why I think. Yeah, 51% that's why people are in the discord are like, no, it's Joe. It's like, yeah, you're right. It probably could be like we. Yeah, it's 51.49. I mean, I think it's a 50-50 split there, especially because Montero does, puts a little

bit of noise in, so it might be like 46% Joe, 45% Maeda and like 4%, you know, Montero, whatever it is. But there's, there's a lot going on there and Mize, I mean, whatever. Mize, I guess Mize could not make it too, but Mize has such a good spring. He's a former 1-1 pick. He's been working so hard at this. I think Mize is in. Well, the debate will rage on.

And if you have a takes on these situations, these job battles that are still gonna go down to the wire and even if Joe starts the year in the minors it won't be long before he gets that opportunity and they could also just look at the situation to say he's really important our future of heaven working with the big league coaches let's make this happen right now can see a case for that too. Yeah, but Quinn Matthews, Jacob Mizorowski, Brandon Sprout with the Mets, Jacob Mizorowski in Milwaukee, but also Logan Henderson, uh, Quinn Matthews, you know, if you're looking for pitchers, I don't think Bryce Eldridge is going to have a ton of play defense in the majors this year, but what's in his way is Wilmer Flores. And, uh, even though I like, uh, Gerard Encarnacion,, that is not something he can't get past. So Eldridge could be a stash. It is a tough home park, but he's been amazing in the minors. Use those NA spots though if you have them because they can be really valuable.

They can pay off in a big way. Maybe it's in June, but hey, you found the right guy early enough. So a lot of names to consider there. Join the Discord. You can do that with the link in the show description. You can find eno1, bluesky, enocerous.beesky.social, mdvr.beesky.social. Good luck if you have drafts this weekend, that's going to do it for this episode of Raids and Barrels, we're back with you on Monday.

Thanks for listening. We are the YOLO Yoyo. Thanks for watching!