Rates & Barrels - Dynasty Ranks Breakdown

Episode Date: February 15, 2023

DVR is officially out and on baby watch, so Eno and Welsh hold down the fort to talk about Welsh's dynasty ranks release and some of the most interesting players. Rundown 2:33 - Dynasty Ranks overall... talk 6:30 - Bobby Witt in dynasty 7:36 - Witt vs Jose Ramirez 11:50 - Bryce Harper 13:11 - What players rank Eno likes and doesn't like in Welsh's top-15 23:31 - Jordan Lawlar vs Jordan Walker 29:25 - Elly De La Cruz 32:15 - Jackson Chourio 41:17 - Miguel Vargas and Kyle Manzardo 51:29 - Andrew Painter, Grayson Rodriguez, Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Pfaadt Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:44 Welcome in to Rates and Barrels. I am not Derek Van Ryper. No, I am Chris Welsh. You hear me on Tuesdays, you're going to hear me through the way through. That over there, that's Eno Saris and Eno. We got a DVR baby coming. So I have stepped in as well. They are at the hospital right now.
Starting point is 00:01:04 The weirdest part about having a baby, I think, especially the first one, it gets a little bit easier afterwards. But the first one, you're like, oh, my God. OK, go back. Like, oh, we're going to go. We're going to go. And then you get to the hospital and you're like, oh, oh, it's like another 14 hours. I remember waiting for my son. We got to the hospital.
Starting point is 00:01:23 My wife was two weeks late, two weeks late. Oh, wow. So you're about to get induced. And we were in the hospital. We get there and it was 24 hours. And at some point it got so late. We had a camera on our dogs and our dogs had not been happy about it. It was about six in the morning.
Starting point is 00:01:40 I drove home. I've never been as tired as I was in that moment of driving to take care of our dogs. And I was like, I'm going to take a nap at home for a minute. And the terrifying, like, will I miss our kid? And I barely could sleep and came back. And DVR is obviously not dealing with that. DVR is at the hospital and hopefully we'll have the baby van coming very soon. But the bat signal was called and it is now just it's you me and al for the foreseeable future you know which uh obviously everybody's going to feel comfortable because you are here as we do our best to try to uh you know make everything rates and barrel ish if you
Starting point is 00:02:16 will yeah but uh in terms of uh smooth sailing and keeping the ship going and creating rundowns and stuff not my forte so there might be a little live by the seat of the pants yeah you guys might get a little bit more of a feel of al or myself and i'll even be on the monday episodes but i am going to be on these tuesday episodes moving forward and the big thing about that is we're going to be talking about um really you know the future of fantasy prospects, dynasty, all that type of stuff. We'll also be answering your questions, which there was an email set up.
Starting point is 00:02:51 I think it's ratesandbarrels.gmail.com. If you guys do want to send in questions kind of as we go and move forward that we can access and we can bring on here. But you can find me on Twitter at is it the Welsh? You can find Eno at Eno Saris. And my dynasty ranks are live. Funny enough, the episode we did last week, I wasn't sure when it was going to happen. And then bam,
Starting point is 00:03:11 as the episode posted, the ranks are up. So they've been live on The Athletic for just about a week. And I will tell you this, I don't know your experience with it. That is my first experience, obviously, with publishing an athletic article. It was overwhelmingly positive. And I don't feel like that is the norm. Not to say that athletic subscribers are not wonderful people, but just posting anything like that into the world, it was overwhelmingly positive. It's a big battle. I made a post on there. I was like, I appreciate you guys not crushing my soul in there, but it was pretty overwhelmingly positive. And there is a top 400 up there for everybody.
Starting point is 00:03:48 Have you had that experience? I mean, you're posting so much. I don't even know if you bother looking in the comment section anymore. I mean, it's healthy to do, but also, you know,
Starting point is 00:03:56 for our own mental health, maybe sometimes don't dig in, but you're, you're a smart, you're a smart guy. So you're probably, it's probably a lot smoother sailing for you on the car. I,
Starting point is 00:04:03 I sometimes the pitching ranks can get a little sticky uh near the bottom what i do is i get in there early it's more positive early and then i get out exactly they come in and tell me how much you're an idiot get the five or six athletic burner accounts hit the uh thumbs up yeah exactly that's how we do it that's's the algorithm. I mean, Bob. I like the Eno burner account idea. So today on the episode, we're going to be talking about the dynasty ranks. We've got some cool stuff. Funny enough is we do have the last remnants of our dear friend DVR before he goes on his leave here because he had kind of put together a pretty good rundown going through the dynasty. So we'll keep this. I've added a few things. We'll kind of put together a pretty good rundown going through the dynasty. So we'll keep this. I've added a few things. We'll kind of keep talking through there. And I don't want to get into strategy or anything, you know, but like we, cause we talked about it last week, but if there's any
Starting point is 00:04:52 other thoughts you want to throw into it before we talk about the ranks, I posted in the article, multiple things. First off, my, one of my leading sentences was, I don't hate your team. I don't hate your prospects. I don't hate your favorite team. I don't hate any of those. This is just how I do it. And I also tried to lay out my rhythm of this. And my rhythm is three-year window is how I attempt to associate this. I will be higher on some of the younger guys, even though they might not help. But I took the approach of a three-year window when I put this together. And I know, like I said, we talked about it a little bit last week, but is there any other strategy things that you want to throw out as far as Dynasty goes? Because they're not all created equal. Even the Otano, I just started one
Starting point is 00:05:33 of those in the last week. Me and DVR started the Podcaster Leagues, Otano Leagues. You're going Otano? Otano, yeah. I'm sorry, Otano. And those are created differently. I'm currently in a slow auction with those, but I am in kind of a win now mode. So is there any other dynasty stuff you want to attach to this before we start talking about players? Yeah, I think one of the hardest things to do is, I mean, obviously, we'll get to the ranking a prospect against an actual major leaguer. That's that's really tough. And that's something that happens.
Starting point is 00:06:10 But that doesn't happen in the first. I mean, you got Corbin Carroll at 24, but he's already hit the major league. So where's your first actual? The first guy that has not hit the majors is Jordan Lawler. Lawler at 45 there. Or John Walker. Yeah. They're next to each other, essentially. Yeah, top 50. You have like 40 players that played in the major leagues first.
Starting point is 00:06:31 And I think other than like where do you put a Walker versus actual major leaguers, I think it's fascinating to see this sort of glut of mid-career but 30-year-old veterans where you have Jose Ramirez, Trey Turner, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts on the back end of the top 10. Putting them against somebody like Tatis with his question marks. Even Witt, there was a really good beginning for Witt, even wit like there was a good really good beginning for wit um but just a question of you know what's his position going forward um how good is his are his plate skills going to be going forward um you know if he's gonna settle in around 300 lbp that's i don't think he's going to be better than jose ramirez trey turner aaron judge mookie bets right well that's the assumption that he doesn't actually improve.
Starting point is 00:07:25 That's the most difficult thing I think about this, especially with the first seasons that like Julio and Bobby Witt had was, yeah, there are a couple of warts you're picking out, like a wart specifically right there with Bobby Witt, but that's under the guise that like, this is not a player that wouldn't increasingly improve their game
Starting point is 00:07:40 and they would maybe continue exactly who they are or maybe stall Jonathan India someone that comes to mind when I think about like the Bobby Witt situation that was a guy that had a phenomenal first year you know hitting over 20 homers 10 stolen bases and then he just tanked and that's kind of the battle I think a lot of these like sophomores have Bobby Witt specifically is like which side if that's going to go and in a three-year window Bobby Witt specifically is like which side of that's going to go. And in a three year window, Bobby Witt versus Jose Ramirez is close and tough. And I actually kind of think it's a tier when I look at this, when I look at my top, let's say, really 12 or 13, you know, top 13 of my dynasty. I think that is a big clump.
Starting point is 00:08:20 And if you wanted to adjust it for the most part, I think you can. I'm personally I'm probably a little bit more stringent about like maybe my top five being that order. And then after that, it's kind of a clump where you're like, hey, listen, I want position scarcity with Jose Ramirez in the stolen bases. I trust that more than, you know, potentially some of the bat skills of Bobby Witt. So Bobby Witt's 22. So by the time Jose Ramirez is 33, 34, Bobby Witt is getting into the prime of his career.
Starting point is 00:08:44 That's a battle of these dynasty ranks and especially that first round. Yeah. You know, there's some aging curves that I've seen that suggests that players don't improve anymore as a group. Like I'm not saying no player, young player gets to major leagues and doesn't improve. Aging curves sort of suggests that there's more of like a plateau to 26 28 and then just going down and there could be uh some kind of change in the way baseball works that would speak to that which is maybe we're getting better at player development and better at scouting and better at um you know putting players in the in the right at the right
Starting point is 00:09:23 time so there isn't that much more uh improvement, improvement that they have to do. They just sort of like are their athletic best, you know, when they get in there, like if you think about sprinters, um, sprinters can hit their top speeds, uh, you know, in their young twenties, you know, so athletically, um, your, your peak is sort of the mid-20s. But baseball has these learned skills, right? These learned skills like plate discipline or like shape appreciation in terms of like, oh, I know what this curveball looks like. I know what these sliders look like.
Starting point is 00:09:56 Picking up different pitches, knowing how pitchers are trying to pitch you, all these sort of game skills that I think they push players' later because you're as you're playing you're accruing these game skills and your athleticism is going down but your learned knowledge is going up and so there's this relationship between the two so I think Bobby Witt in particular there seems to be like something that can improve there which is just you know in terms of not chasing as much and maybe being a little bit more
Starting point is 00:10:26 patient to kind of add that average and OBP to what already seems like really good sort of athleticism. Well, like what you're saying is maybe this is something that's a battle between these two, where if you're talking about an age curve, the most likely piece of athleticism that's going to go on the age curve is the speed and that's something that long-term projecting like even if i'm looking at this list i'm trying to find like there's a lot of guys that have had some solid stolen base numbers but once they once they hit those 30s what's going to happen we've already seen this that's i think that's why you got like turner and betts down there at 11 13 because you know if turner see like i know that the rules the rules
Starting point is 00:11:05 change is a real big question mark for this year but if turner steals like 20 bags this year and hits 15 homers and is 31 going into next year i think this ranking will look completely right yeah well i mean and look at whit merrifield that's another one of those that was high numbers as the age comes it comes but but that's kind of my point. If you come back to the Jose Ramirez versus Bobby Witt situation, Jose Ramirez is hitting his 30-year-old season and he's been stealing bases. If the athleticism does start to tinker down, you're dealing with Bobby Witt's plate improvement and skill set improvement as far as the bat goes versus a potential decline in athleticism at 30 years old plus for guys like Jose Ramirez. So which side would you want to go on as Ramirez gets older?
Starting point is 00:11:48 Again, there's not necessarily a wrong answer because like as I am trying to build a dynasty league, I want to win now, guys. I want to win now as best as I possibly can. I just took Bryce Harper in that dynasty I was telling you about. I always screw up the name. What is the history? Otno? Otano?
Starting point is 00:12:07 I think it's Otano. I call it Otano. But I'm not really somebody to ask about pronunciation, but Otano. Yeah. I mean, it's like a German name, so it'd be Otanoi, but nobody says it that way. I mean, I think we should say it that way. It should be Otanoi, we should say.
Starting point is 00:12:22 But like, in the auction, just took him uh but because i got an insane which one bryce harper i took bryce harper all right i got him at like 26 bucks in a startup dynasty which was like a phenomenal deal that is it's a win now piece with plus it's a 40 man roster there where like you can at 12 team 40 man roster you can probably just do some sort of outfield platoon until he comes back so yeah well i mean i i did the crazy stuff i also took buxton which no one's going to be surprised about also got louise robert so i mean i've got volatility through the room dynasty but but yeah the declining skill thing is like it's a really interesting battle and if you notice like inside the top 25 of mine i only have two players that are over 30 years old, like not 30, but 31 or higher.
Starting point is 00:13:10 And it's Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman. And those are at this point, you know, built in. You're not going around speed. You're just going around that ball skills and you're going around, you know, four categories, which both of those play for you. around you know four categories which both of those play for you so yeah it's an interesting thing in there and it's an interesting dynamic of battling the young guys versus the old guys in dynasty that everyone has to come to terms with you know what let me ask you this in the top 15 let's assume it's like roto what do you hate the most like who's the rank you hate the most of my top 15 and then to feel make me feel better pick one that you love um I think I I um okay the names that hurt no yeah it's it's season mostly fine and it's also hard in the top 15 you're picking the Nets you're talking about like one or two spots and that's the big deal because it's top
Starting point is 00:14:00 15. um I think Turner uh below Jose Ramirez um i'm not so sure about that because even though we had that whole conversation about speed and everything turner is still elite in speed he's 95 95th percentile in sprint speed um so i don't think it's going to drop off that fast and when i and i have a little bit of a bias when i look at jose ramirez i think like i think we all do yeah yeah the body just doesn't seem to sometimes match the continued uh return barrel chested dude he looks slow i think he's not slow but he looks slow it's a very strange thing uh so i don't know if that's just a bias uh kyle tucker um i think i think he just has the potential to change this list.
Starting point is 00:14:46 Because we're heading into this year with the shift rules. He gets shifted a lot. And he's 26. So this is like prime peak year situation. So I think if he goes like 330-30 this year, which is not at all impossible, it's not even that far off from his projections. So if he goes 330-30 this year, and Tatis comes back and is not quite what he was,
Starting point is 00:15:16 or if Witt doesn't take a step forward, or if Vlad is like, no, I'm just going to hit 300 with 25 hom homers every year and not get that sort of 30, 35 level again. I think Tucker could swim move past some of them. Yeah, I think four is kind of his spot where he could go. I'd also point out something I had to mark on here is what I presented to everybody was a daily moves list. And that is why Shohei Otani is number number one because if you're in a daily moves league it doesn't matter nothing else matt like i don't have to have any other analysis it doesn't matter shohei otani is two elite players he's number one there's it's end of discussion right
Starting point is 00:15:54 but if he is two players which is so silly or he is one player in a weekly format that you change i also gave you the rank on the dynasty list and that would move him down and that would inherently move a lot of these players up it would move tucker up a spot that's right that's right move everybody up one because shohotani the bat is not a top 10 prospect i don't think i mean util only it's close i have him right there the util only is the thing that like when you're talking about uh turner versus ram, Ramirez at about the same age has a little like little added gimme for the third base. So if you're talking about position scarcity, but I can see you putting Ohtani ahead of those old guys. Yeah, but that's where I'm trying to ride around Jordan Alvarez and stuff.
Starting point is 00:16:36 One thing that's also interesting to me about Jordan Alvarez is the knees apparently aren't that great. Yeah, well, at 25 years old, he's already had multiple like multiple issues with it. And, you know, when you look at this list too like the injury guys the injury worries in this top 12 are alvarez tatis jr and i think that's really it when you look at those two and those are two very popular names two sub 25 year old guys yeah yeah okay that's a good point and those are 325 or younger players that already have some injury issues alvarez is probably weird because also your injury outcomes are better
Starting point is 00:17:10 if you have it yeah yeah i mean like yeah that's true like the earlier pictures yeah labrum and yeah so um i'd like your rankings i like your ranking boba shett um because i think it must have been tempting to put him higher. And, you know, he's 25 years old, power and speed. But the speed is not elite. The power is an elite. The hit tool might be elite, but I also see him as someone that may have to move off the position. Not now, but in the three year window, 28 years old, probably not then either. But he might be one of those people that when they sign their first free agent contract, it is not to be a shortstop.
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Starting point is 00:18:37 What, did you see the report that he said he wants, it's a concerted effort to run a ton more this year. It was like statements. I think when he first came to camp, a camp seven like officially open, they're going to be opening up on Wednesday. Not every single player is going to report, but literally first words out of his mouth were he wants to run more. I mean, is that I know that's the best shape of our life type of thing
Starting point is 00:19:00 we're getting into. Everybody wants to hit more and throw faster and run. But like, is that something you think Boba? boba can do theoretically benefit more from these rules than anybody because he's obviously sort of right where the you shouldn't run like last year he got caught so often he'd be you know as a coach you're like yo but also the team like didn't run that was my worry with the that team as well like i think they were bottom 10 in the league. They were 10th, I think, from the bottom in stolen base attempts last year. I know that because I've talked a lot about like Varshow versus, you know, Arizona going to Toronto and Arizona was like top five in the league.
Starting point is 00:19:37 I just worry about that team when you have those type of bats, the necessity they feel to want to run. And I think I feel like as these prime players are getting older, the need or the press for that team to want to steal is becoming less. It's just the elephant in the room is what is the basis coming in? What is that four and a half inches of extra room you have from first to second? What is that going to do to coaches? Do they see the advantage and will they take advantage? Have you talked to anybody yet about uh any type of scheme with that is anybody going to be attempting to go like take
Starting point is 00:20:10 it like like that is an advantage do teams acknowledge that that's a new advantage that they might want to go with yeah i've got uh an interview with steven vote uh that's going to publish this friday on this feed uh where we talked a lot about what it was like from the catching standpoint, what it was like to be a catcher throwing people out and who he thought might take off more often. So I think that we kind of agreed that it's going to be a little bit more of these people that are tweeners, these guys who had three four five stolen bases before uh maybe even a boba shett where he you know he he did get uh i think 10 stolen bases but he got caught a few times like too many times so like maybe that will affect those guys but one of the ways that we can tell
Starting point is 00:20:55 the earliest um is that actually uh just attempt rates by team in spring training are have have signal in them they're interesting that means oh okay so so just if you see a team that's like taking off a lot that you can then you can sort of mark everybody up and and one of the teams that i think i'd be watching very closely is the oakland a's because uh they've got a story reese ramon loriano um you, even somebody like Nick Allen. They've got young guys in a lot of places. And they could also benefit from a little YOLO, like what else they really got going for them. It's not going to be a really good team,
Starting point is 00:21:37 so maybe they could be the go-go A's. Yeah, Tony Kemp in there as well. The Marlins might be a team that I think about because they're also young, but they're also singles hitting. So maybe they'll have to push the go button a lot to turn those singles into doubles. I mean,
Starting point is 00:21:51 they're, they, they've got a bunch of second baseman who had singles, like maybe all of them are going to, you know, go 10, 20, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:58 two 80, 10, 20. Maybe they just want a whole team of John Sakura, which would be amazing. That kind of reminds me like what the diamondbacks did last year with like, so they were not typically a running team of John Sakura, which would be amazing. That kind of reminds me like what the Diamondbacks did last year with like, so they were not typically a running team, but Rojas and McCarthy, then all of a sudden go 20 plus.
Starting point is 00:22:12 And it was like, it's just a younger more athletic team that wasn't finding the bat outside of Christian Walker. I mean, I guess Varshow as well, but you know, I don't know if you want to call it like manufacturing runs or anything like that, but you want to put yourself in the best position. The A's are in. And I think that's why like history Ruiz, you know, I don't know if you want to call it like manufacturing runs or anything like that. You want to put yourself in the best position. The A's are. And I think that's why, like history, Ruiz, you know, he's on this dynasty list. He's actually one of the most difficult prospect versus dynasty guys for me because his prospect prowess is kind of dropped. I think a little at least in my eyes, this is a guy that I used to love and tout before anybody liked him.
Starting point is 00:22:41 And then he fell off and he came back. before anybody liked him and then he fell off and he came back but his like one year perceived value in dynasty or even two is much higher than the long-term prospect value of him because it's like if he's going to steal 40 bases this year for the a's that value is so much higher than what we would go as like a full potential because he's not a five tool player he looked like a five tool player i watched him when he was with the royals and he got traded to the padres thank you i got some pushback because i was talking about his uh hard hit rate and somebody's like well you did you take the did you take the the bunts out i'm like yo i could take all the bunts out of his exit velocity numbers and he would still not be a guy who hits the ball that hard well and and he hasn't hit the ball hard
Starting point is 00:23:22 since he was here in complex he was crushing the ball when he was here. It was like mini Alfonso Soriano that people would see. The swing, very wide open. It had a path similar to Soriano, and he was hitting doubles like crazy against the wall, but it just never materialized after that. It's really poor pitching that was out here. But I've watched that guy since he was first stateside, and the bat has just kind of regressed outside of last year where it just took off.
Starting point is 00:23:46 But again, his one-year value is just amazing. All right, so talking about these- So it's like an Ender-Enciarte comp is not like a crazy idea. No, I don't think so. If he ended up hitting 15 plus, I would not be shocked for the guy that I saw in the complex.
Starting point is 00:24:03 What I would be shocked about is the path that he took the contact rate just got worse and it seemed like it was he was no longer trying to you know trying to hit for the fences he was just trying to get the bat on the ball to get on base so he could take advantage there like he's no longer more of a power like a power springer but if he's gonna be that guy then he needs to have better than a 20 strikeout rate and that's his problem i mean i think it was like 30 30 plus at many points in the minor league. So, I mean, it's all these convoluted skill sets that you have to taper down. It actually reminds me similar of like a pitcher that can throw 100,
Starting point is 00:24:35 but they can't hit the broad side of a barn. You know what I'm saying? So it's like you've got to taper it down. You've got to find your sweet spot. And I felt like he had to find his sweet spot, who he was as a hitter, because when he was a power hitter he was swinging through everything i'm fascinated that you have jordan lawler ahead of jordan walker um the only sort of negative i have on lawler is just that uh he's had labrum surgery yeah a lot of the diamondbacks have i mean carol carol had
Starting point is 00:25:01 a similar i think it was a similar shoulder injury and surgery, but came back like game, but game busters. Um, so in the AFL and Lawler also had a down year after his, but, but Jordan Lawler had a phenomenal year last year and was, you guys didn't get to see it. Um, when you came out here for first pitch, which was unfortunate because Lawler got hurt again, which is kind of Lawler got hurt again, which is kind of a stinker and doesn't really help my argument. I would acknowledge there's probably like a little bit of homerism in it. I think these guys are next to each other.
Starting point is 00:25:32 And from the perspective of like getting value now, Jordan Walker is slightly more valuable, but Lawler just came off of a 2022 where he had 16 homers, 39 stolen bases while hitting over 300. He was a three, four or five slash guy, 300, 303 average 401 OBP. He comes out to the Arizona fall. You guys didn't get to see, he was hands down the best player in the Arizona fall league to start. It was hits every day, multiple homers. Actually, if you want to check it, I have a funny homer he had in the, um um in the afl where he didn't think he got it and he kind of threw his bat down all pissed and he did and i kind of yelled to him after you can see some of that homer power but he was stealing bases at an
Starting point is 00:26:14 aggressive clip he was making all the contact in the world and that was not worried about how bad he looked in double a um i mean i'm i'm not from a like this is what the development is like one level struggle to me isn't the be all end all especially as these guys get pushed that was an aggressive assignment that the eight that the diamond back 20 years old yeah yeah well but also think of the injury think of the missed time with the injury and then this aggressive assignment where they push him and they pushed him three levels in one year too three levels in one year is this big marker for me with going with the AFL. No, I'm going to look at the totality of his development through and he came to the AFL and he was a monster. But you can look at Jordan Walker and you can see who he started off slow.
Starting point is 00:27:01 He moved multiple levels, stole more, but he's six foot five 220 plus he stole more bases than he hit homers last year which is absurd to think about and that's where those like julio rodriguez comps start to come in for a lot of people because there's big power there's big stolen bases from a big bodied guy who's going to play in the outfield now that i think these guys are 1a 1b i would say like i have them literally within two spots of each other so they're yeah yeah inside the top 50. but you know like i i i just chose to keep noel marte and ellie de la cruz and trade away jordan lawler in auto new um so uh this is making me regret that decision noel is not someone i feel feel the best after watching a lot of him over the last couple years I don't know that I could have gotten the same deal for Noel so that that's
Starting point is 00:27:51 that's part of why I traded him is because I got more for Jordan but getting Ellie in that is huge no I had Ellie uh so the question the question for me was to was trade Ellie de la cruz or Jordan Mahler for you know for reinforcements you know oh so you traded jordan lawler away and kept no i i i had noel v jordan lawler and ellie de cruz on my team and i was choosing for a trade now trading away noel they probably wouldn't have you know gotten me what i got so it was really the choice was between jordan lawler and ellie de cruz where do you have ellie i mean ellie is amazing amazing because I think if there's any sort of variability when it comes to Jordan, Ellie's like through the roof when it comes to, you know, what he could be, he could be all or nothing. Like he could be amazing or he could not be a major leaguer with
Starting point is 00:28:39 the contact and walk rates he has. And I have him i've got him at 57 and that you know again like the thing that's going to rub people the the wrong way with dynasty are two things it's older players being pushed down you have a head of nolan arnotto what what and then the young guys being moved up and the obvious argument if they have no professional time but you know in dynasty you are looking for the next big guy you know last year doing a startup dynasty taking julio rodriguez would have had the same i'm not saying that ellie or jordan walker will be that but it would have the same feeling we were like dang you're taking these guys really high ellie de la cruz is a very volatile player like you said he
Starting point is 00:29:21 is one of those guys where it's like in three years he could not be in you know in the majors at all he could maybe be in japan or he could be a first round talent because it's very um it's very onio cruz like except it's much better uh plate discipline skills i mean there are big strikeouts and stuff like that but it's not he doesn't like strike out 50 of time against lefties or whatever it Yeah. So, I mean, he's fascinating and it's 21 year olds, but like the prospects I have in this range. So now if you kind of put them together,
Starting point is 00:29:50 you've got Ellie Volpe, Walker and Lawler all in the top 60. They're all on the precipice of coming up. The Diamondbacks have already talked about mid season. Jordan Lawler is a possibility. Ellie De La Cruz. I think we can just visually see as a possibility.
Starting point is 00:30:07 And Anthony Volpe, you know, they're saying they're going to give him a spot or an opportunity to try to win a gig, though it looks like Oswald Peraza. So the first set of prospects, you know, are all guys that look like they are going to get playing time this year. And I think that makes it more palatable to stomach
Starting point is 00:30:23 where, like you said, oh my God, you're taking Elie over Nolan Aren arenado like that's where you can kind of stomach it i don't know it's i think it's i think it's pretty close i i'm it's really really tough that's the that's the toughest part but i think it's pretty close that i think you could almost get whatever you want for ellie de la cruz in the dynasty league right now uh what do you mean like i mean not maybe not like bobby witt like you know maybe not a top 10 guy but if you're talking about somebody who's 30 years or older goldschmidt arenado um yeah that type of thing like i think you can maybe even get a mookie for him like I think you could push for it. I mean, you wouldn't have to add to it maybe, but like, you have to add to it.
Starting point is 00:31:05 But Ellie is like, at least hot. You know, he's dynamic. I mean, he's a, and that, that's a,
Starting point is 00:31:12 you know, a word that everyone hates. Like, what does that even mean? Ellie de la Cruz inside the top 10 of my top 10 might be the most electric of all those players. 28 homers, 47 stolen bases hit 300 average yeah
Starting point is 00:31:28 lower obp than a guy like lawler i'd point out you know lawler was over 400 le was around big strikeout rates and big strikeout rates that's exactly right you know the one thing that's missing for me and makes me feel a little bit blind when i'm doing prospect analysis is this sort of the stack cast data and um you know i hate to bring up a toro again but like toro i think that the market showed us a little bit that uh toro wasn't as good a prospect as maybe the stats look like when he was traded for rafael montero yeah was it what was that deal rafael montero and kendall graveman for Abraham Toro. Yeah, that sounds right. Yeah, that sounds right. It's like a rental reliever and then a throw in reliever. Montero ended up good, but like
Starting point is 00:32:10 that's not what a really good prospect is traded for. That's when you sort of be like, oh, the bad ball stats must not be good. That's not true for Ellie. Like I've heard, I've heard about them. I haven't, I haven't seen them, but I've heard that his like top end exit velocities are really amazing so yeah and the more that kind of is i think o'neill cruz is the kind of is the comp a little bit a little bit more refined maybe yeah i know and i think it's it's sometimes it's lazy but sometimes we have to just live in like lazy comp eric because he's a tall skinny guy six foot five 200 uh 158 strikeouts he had last year he He did push two levels, but he hit 300 at both levels, which is phenomenal. Doesn't walk in an insane amount, but I mean, again, the counting stats are loud and crazy. He simmered down a little bit at AA, which I would expect, but he's got
Starting point is 00:32:57 the makings of a 30-30 guy, and that's why he is a top 10 prospect. And those are the guys that I'm the most stubborn about in any dynasty format. I am stubborn about trading off top 10 prospect. And those are the guys that I'm the most stubborn about in any dynasty format. I am stubborn about trading off top 10 guys. Everybody else, I'm probably a lot more loose than people would expect as a prospect guy to trade off. Anybody outside, usually the top 10, because I think I can replenish, but there's a reason these guys are the top 10. It's the elite of elite. And that's also why they're really high on a dynasty list. That's why they sit there. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton bike, bike plus tread row guide or app. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from
Starting point is 00:33:43 the beginning. Remember doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. A couple other guys that DVR had put in here that were interesting. Well, hold on. Before you get there, I need to do this one real quick, because I think those are lower down. At 65, you have a guy who had 26 plate appearances above abel okay yeah yeah yeah and he is super hot right now in terms of you know people talking about him he's got all the helium in the world uh everyone's super excited about him and there are these
Starting point is 00:34:23 breathless tweets of oh you know no one this age has done this at that level since bob since mike trout or whatever bs it is but jack centurio with the brewers is 18 years old and all of the good numbers that we're looking at almost all happened in a ball even high a was kind of boring i mean 119 wrc plus is not what you would think a top top prospect had in in high a and then double a was i'm not even going to bring up what the numbers were but it's only 26 plate appearances this smacks a little bit to me like i i was really into headboard perez last year and there are all these guys that an a ball put up nasty numbers and you're just like can't even understand them you're just looking
Starting point is 00:35:14 at them on fan graphs just laughing does that mean looking at the data and laughing like that's what i think of when i think of like these a ball guys convince me that Jackson Trujillo is not one of these helium a ball guys. Well, there's always a possibility that this isn't going to pan out, but the couple of reasons behind it is he was the youngest at every single stop. One of the big things that I've talked about a lot that just, and I talked about in the last episode,
Starting point is 00:35:41 it's just so fascinating. Like this guy was only supposed to play rookie ball last year. I hope everybody understands that he was here in an extended spring training to wait and do a holdover extended spring training, by the way, for people. It starts in April and it goes all the way to a rookie ball starts, which is usually like June, like mid June or something like that, or maybe early July. And these guys just sit in the camps and they just train and they work out and stuff like that. They get paid. I don't think they get paid. I mean, they probably get food and housing, I think.
Starting point is 00:36:09 Maybe. Yeah, they probably get very little food. There's a couple of teams that do it really well, by the way. The Rangers and Royals, who I live right next to, they have built their own complex. So you kind of live at the complex. Yeah, I should take a picture if you guys have never seen it. It's really cool. It's essentially an apartment building that they built and it's got their logo on it. And they let all of their guys who are in complex and whatever capacity stay there, which I think is like a dorm. It's a total dorm.
Starting point is 00:36:46 thing of all he um in the stadium like i'm behind home plate if you look straight out you can see the rangers facility four or five of his friends had big white flags and they were up on a um they were up on like a balcony and they were waving the flags as he was up to bat and i have a picture of them doing that it's the most boring thing possible these guys literally actually walk out the stadium and just walk across the street and they go over and they walk into their building. I actually ran into Kumar Rocker during complex. I got out of my car and he was just standing there at night, dude. It is a crazy place. It's a wild place, but it is very college atmosphere.
Starting point is 00:37:16 All of that to say that like that's cool because those teams really take care of their players in at least one extra way where they give them housing. A lot of these other guys are not given that opportunity. take all of that cheerios 18 years old he's 17 i think at that time he's in extended spring training he's putting up 110 plus evs a day over there and they're starting to tweet about it the team says we're going to be a little bit aggressive and we're going to put this kid who's 17 years old we don't see that a lot here's a perspective marco luciano when he was 17 he rocked but it was in complex league this team said all right 17 year old we're going to push you to a ball and he absolutely dominated a ball like dominated a ball 324 12 homers 10 stolen bases um a 600 slug that is dominating a ball a place that he shouldn't have been
Starting point is 00:38:06 next step up the team says all right let's send you to high a does he dominate no does he play fine but he's playing now he's playing like people drafted our college he's playing college guys that's exactly right high a guys would start coming in there more advanced pitching the pitching change you get from rookie ball and a ball to to high A is different now he comes in he only hits 252 yeah it's not great eight homers though four stolen bases the strikeouts are still not insane I got approved though 31 over 31 games then the team says let's give you a taste right at the end as the season ends and we give you double a double a where he stunk 18 years old 18 years old this guy is putting up 110 evs all across the board beautiful swings and is aggressively sent that says something now do the brewers have like the best developmental system as far as what they've
Starting point is 00:38:58 done with their prospects well no but at the same time this guy met every test as the youngest player at every single level. And I think that says a lot, but he's dangerous and he's risky because he did end the season really bad. There's so much hype put to him as an 18 year old. And he is only, I believe, one of three teenagers inside my top 100. And the other two, well, actually only one of them has potential major league which we'll talk about here shortly the other guy is drew jones so it's like him and
Starting point is 00:39:30 drew jones are the only teenagers that sniff that he's dangerous and he's not a guy that i'm probably looking at if i'm in win now mode but if we're talking about like that's a pretty aggressive ranking for drew jones huh i mean like what have you seen of him it's just oh i mean he was the most dominant high school player i mean mean, what did we see professionally? Unfortunately, nothing, because he got a shoulder hurt in BP with the Diamondbacks. But I mean, that was one of the most impressive high school seasons, hitting well over 500, countless homers, stolen bases, one of the more advanced batters. And you also look at like what Jackson holiday is doing and just think like
Starting point is 00:40:06 scout after scout, like drew Jones over Jackson holiday and everybody likes Jackson holiday now. And some outlets are going over that. So yeah, it's aggressive. But when you're looking at like these 18 year olds and you're looking in a three-year window, Jackson trail might actually help.
Starting point is 00:40:20 It might actually get there. Like he has a 19 year old, he could hit the majors in his development. Otherwise what you have on your hand is you have the number one and maybe number two prospect in all of baseball in one or two years and you can pull off a trade that you just did like jordan lawler you got reinforcements not that you want to draft guys to like trade but you also know yeah you do but you did you having jordan law, you had a perceived top at least 10 prospect that you could get a haul for. If you were to invest in Churio or Drew Jones, obviously that's a really high commitment,
Starting point is 00:40:52 but maybe you're a guy that's like, I'm going to just draft a team that has all really young up and coming guys. Those are golden assets in those leagues. As soon as the team is trying to sell off, you're going to get all this stuff. You're going to get your starting pitcher, you're going to get your closer, and maybe you're going to get a serviceable outfielder. I don't know what your trade ended up looking like, but there's an extra value that's put in there. But I totally agree and knew that Churio was going to stand out. I'm actually surprised I didn't see more about it, but that was my path of where it goes. It's like, you want hard hit data, he's got it. And he was the youngest at every single level in meeting the test outside
Starting point is 00:41:24 of AA. It's just like really impressive. Like how many guys do that? And I know it's tropey, but it's like, how many guys really do what he did? The danger is going to be, if he falls off, we're all going to have like Jason Dominguez in our minds. I think of a guy that got skyrocket and never lived up. If trio struggles, I think he is going to plummet lists early on and i think it might be a mistake and a buying opportunity early on in the year yeah because he could have a good second half and then all of a sudden everything's good again you know double i mean can you imagine can you imagine starting in still young at double a he will still be probably one of the youngest players at double a if they put him back there I do think there's a chance they could throw him at high a,
Starting point is 00:42:05 and they could start him back at high a. I wouldn't discount that. One way I will look to is when minor league spring training starts up, these guys are putting groups and they're putting their level groups. So like he will be put in either high a or double a, and he will play with that team versus other teams. And that sometimes is a telling like, Oh,
Starting point is 00:42:24 this is where he's going to start in the minor leagues. Also, because you don't want to group them with the double A's and then at the end of spring be like, oh, you're going to hire him. Because then that's a good motion, right? You want them to play with like their teammates and stuff like that. So it is very telling once the minor league spring training portion
Starting point is 00:42:38 starts in like mid-March, which I will report back when I can, that like that might tell us exactly where he is. All right, you want to go to these these other guys that DVR had on? Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're interesting in Miguel Vargas being number one who I have. I'm continuously moving up. I've always really loved Miguel Vargas. I have it 93 right now.
Starting point is 00:42:59 I think there's room to grow for him to keep going up, especially with starting at second base. And the other one is Kyle Manzardo, which I think DVR was very happy about that. I have him inside the top 120. Sometimes it feels a little bit aggressive and even where I have him, because after, um, I told you guys in the last episode, I got to spend time with him. Um, like two weeks ago, I got to spend a couple hours with him and he's a really great guy. He's a fascinating guy. And the news I told you guys about that he's going to pick up a third base glove, or at least the Rays have asked him
Starting point is 00:43:29 to pick up a third base glove and he'll work on in spring training, opens up some opportunities. But at the same time, when I hear that, like he's polar opposite to me and Miguel Vargas, Miguel Vargas will start in the majors and might be a huge boon. Manzardo potentially picking up another glove
Starting point is 00:43:47 and the guys that they have signed as far as contracts go and the roster construction really is like watering down my thought of Kyle Manzardo playing this year. I really don't know if that's a possibility. If they want to have, you know, tutelage him at third base or just be more flexible, this might be an entire year of just minor league adjustments, you know tutelage him at third base or or just be more flexible this might be an entire year of just minor league adjustments you know making good contact rates and defensively learning some other spots which kind of hurts his value from a this year perspective but what's your take on manzardo and miguel vargas yeah you know manzardo i love uh the stats mean, just the combination of near 300 ISO with mid, you know, sort of like 15% strikeout rate. I just, that's so sexy.
Starting point is 00:44:31 Yeah. And, you know, if I saw, if it was any other organization and I saw 122 plate appearances, 22 years old, just had a 148 WRC plus and double a, like, I'd be like, this guy's going to play a little bit of double a and the rest of the major leagues this year. That would be my guess. You know, one of those start the season. And if he rockets, if he's killing it down there, then why have him down there? I just agree with you. This team construction, the problem is I think that there is a pecking order and you might know something about this but there is a pecking order where it's kind of uh it may seem uh silly but um it's meaningful to the prospects themselves the players themselves is
Starting point is 00:45:19 that you get your shot right so vidal Vidal Brujan may not be amazing, but he was the right guy at the right time. Got a shot, you know? And like, I think he's failed enough that like, uh, uh,
Starting point is 00:45:35 I think he's failed enough that, um, they know what they have. Yeah. So then somebody else can get a shot. Right. I mean, I'm not saying it's like the doors closed on Brujan,
Starting point is 00:45:46 but like he got a shot and Walls got a shot. So the next people who are going to get a shot for me are Jonathan Aranda and Curtis Meade. And neither of them, I mean, Meade is probably a decent third baseman, but Aranda is not really a great defensive player. a decent third baseman uh but aranda is not really a great defensive player and so he's gonna end up uh probably near first or in that first corner grouping so if you if you talk about that first corner grouping for the raise this year you talk about yandy diaz uh harold ram Ramirez, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda. A lot of guys.
Starting point is 00:46:28 Yeah, that is a long list. It's just tough for him. I think for Vargas, you know, I think that there's a – they did sign David Peralta, which changes things a little bit, but they also had their manager saying, you know, I think I'm going to do a Margus Vargas at second, which is huge, which is huge for them.
Starting point is 00:46:48 They've also said that they were going to maybe do Mookie bets at second this year, which he already qualifies on Yahoo at second base. And with any more games, if he gets enough, all of a sudden you might walk into 2024. If you have the bigger platforms of 20 games needed, if Miguel,
Starting point is 00:47:04 if he does get there that does change I feel like Miguel is relatively safe regardless of what they're doing in the outfield I was never a big Trace Thompson guy James Altman um we'll see where the opportunity is but like I just have a hard time believing they keep Chris Taylor off the field and I don't think they want to stunt Miguel Vargas so that's what's so different about these two guys. Everybody wants Kyle Manzardo to succeed this year, but I think it's not really going to be a payoff. Do you think on, when you look at that rank, knowing what you know about the Rays, are you comfortable with Kyle Manzardo? It's like a top 115 overall dynasty player in your mind? The bar is pretty high for first baseman, you know um and that's why in traditional rankings
Starting point is 00:47:48 uh you probably won't see bonzardo as high right no no no no because they they don't care about your fantasy numbers and they realize there's not that much uh defensive value for first baseman and then the bar is so high you actually have to you have to be like six to eight percent better than league average to be average at first base you know um so that's a tough one also knowing uh kind of how the organization uh treated nate low is that relevant i don't know nateowe had pretty good numbers in the minor leagues It seemed like he was going to be the first baseman They needed a first baseman They let him try it a couple times and they just traded him away
Starting point is 00:48:32 But again, the flexibility That was the one thing I think is interesting They believed Again, he told me He could actually place him as a second baseman I think that would actually change things They love guys that can move around I think that would actually change things i think they love guys they can move around i think that helps the potential idea of like traditional first baseman that's why i
Starting point is 00:48:50 found it such an interesting tidbit when he told me because it might open up even the traditional eye that oh the team themselves want to experiment and see if they can move and be on here because the talk has always been well he's just like a first base like he's just first base only not even outfield or anything like that and i don't think that's the case he's kind of very big like very lumberjack he has like a lumberjack feel but this is a guy that you know they might have even wanted as a second baseman but you bring up the great point is the first tries are going to go to Aranda and probably Curtis Meade and that really you're gonna have a lot to have a lot of injuries or a lot of roster movement for Kyle Manzardo to be able to break that this year where I think they would just want him
Starting point is 00:49:27 to succeed in the minors that also I think leaves fantasy people a little bit susceptible if he continues at his rate and if people just don't understand or they're not you know I know you guys have talked about him but like 327 he hit across two levels last year, which was phenomenal. Hitting over 320 at both of those levels. Strikeout numbers, low contact numbers, high. And he had over 20 homers. If he does that again, it's going to be a top five guy in fantasy. I mean, you're just not going to be able. It doesn't matter what position he plays at that point.
Starting point is 00:49:59 Because I mean, it's the same stuff that I like out of Miguel Vargas, right? And Miguel Vargas did not have the same power. I love Miguel Vargas' low strikeout rate, his high walk rates. I love his 200 isos. But sometimes, I think I said on the last show, sometimes a 200 iso is not all about ball power. Some of that can be legs, and he obviously has some legs. There's only 50 plate appearances,
Starting point is 00:50:29 but a 106 max EV in the major leagues leaves me kind of wondering what the raw power is like for Miguel Vargas. I mean, the fan graphs grade is only 45-45. So is this going to be more of a hit tool guy in your estimation? A guy who's going to hit 280 with 20 homers? Is that is that the Miguel Vargas you're expecting? Yeah, I mean, I'm expecting I'm expecting a guy that is going to be able to tap into 20 on the power is going to be able to be at a prime position at second base and has a really high floor as far as strikeout and walkability.
Starting point is 00:51:04 Like those are things that i want like those high floor guys i think some of the like and that's that's a crazy battle by the way we were talking about like ellie where you've got incredible ceiling you know the sky's the limit type of guys but there's a lot of volatility there's something to me about those players that have those really high floors especially when it's built around contact and not a lot of strikeouts that it's like their ability to tap in, I think is at any moment. Paul Goldschmidt was a prime example of a guy that was never trying to hit homers.
Starting point is 00:51:32 And then as he just developed in the majors, he continuously was able to hit for more power and shut everybody up with his weird swing. And those are those types. Mine's Ardo kind of has that feel. Vargas's pull rates aren't really huge. Right. So,
Starting point is 00:51:46 you know, that's, I think Goldie's like an interesting pull because Goldie learned to pull the ball. Um, and that's, you know, pulling the ball selectively while keeping his oppo approach has been,
Starting point is 00:51:56 I think the big, uh, boon to his career. So Vargas, uh, add some pulling to this. Um, cause you know,
Starting point is 00:52:04 last year, 37% pull rate that's below average. Um, so if he can, if he can put together his good contact with, uh, with pulling the ball in the air some, um, yeah, I mean like I, I'm always looking for, um, I'm always looking for Mookie bets. I'm always looking for Mookie bets because, uh, I want my guys to work out. And so I want high, I want low bus rates and I don't normally, uh, roster LA to the cruise guys, but in auto new, um, it doesn't take that much. Like you just put a dollar or two on the guy and you keep them for a while. That's all it takes. It takes being maybe a week early you know on on the hype you know
Starting point is 00:52:45 um so it doesn't it's not the same as certain dynasty leagues you have to draft the guy in the prospect draft which happens at the end of the year and you have to take le one one and like you know i think i'd be more likely to take a vargas or a lawler or somebody where i'm like he doesn't strike out 35 of the time so i So I'm always looking for Mookie Betts. And Miguel Vargas has a little bit of that Mookie Betts thing with the low strikeout rates, the high walk rates, and the good power but not great power. Let's finish with this.
Starting point is 00:53:17 We've got some fun episodes on the Tuesdays we're going to be doing. And we're going to be talking about redraft prospects. But I did want to hit this i mentioned that there were three teenagers that were on the top 100 which i know is a wild thing to think about one of those is being given the opportunity to break camp in the rotation which is absurd and it's andrew painter the three of the most fascinating pitching prospects in my mind even for this year we can have a bigger conversation about it but from just a overall dynasty perspective and as far as their rank goes are Grayson Rodriguez Andrew Painter and then I'm even gonna throw in Brandon Fott a lot more
Starting point is 00:53:53 conversation I've been talking about let me throw Ricky Tiedemann in there Ricky Tiedemann I have Ricky Tiedemann over Uri Perez I'm so glad you did because I love him I really really love Ricky Tiedemann he's also just knocking on the door. That rotation has Mitch White for floor, but in terms of ceiling, I think Nate Pearson's not giving him anymore. So if they need ceiling, if Berrios doesn't come back, they're going to put Tiedemann in there
Starting point is 00:54:14 and see if he can be their number two. Yeah, he's been very, I've comped, he's very Shane McClanahan-like, just pumps his own, pumps his own. I love him. Brandon Fott led the Miners in strikeouts. There's a fascinating, someone tweeted this out.
Starting point is 00:54:26 When you look at last year, pitchers that went six or more innings, it was like Kyle Harrison was number two at like five. And Brandon Fott had like 16 games where he went six or more. He was the number one the whole year. That's important. That's really important because I've been looking at innings per appearance and batter's face per appearance, and they're really low in the minor leagues. So with these guys, a lot of guys who face like 10 batters per appearance in the minor league.
Starting point is 00:54:53 And that's not Brandon Fott. Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Painter are my top two pitchers in my prospect ranks and my top two prospect pitchers in Dynasty. And Grayson looks like he's got a rotation spot given to him. Unless, you know, he fumbles it and Andrew Painter is going to be given an opportunity as a 19 year old, which is absurd. So I'm just curious that your take, maybe even ranking these guys as much as you want to with Grayson, Andrew Painter, Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Fott, any thoughts in any rank? I'm a little biased against change-up guys actually uh i i'm nervous about them they are really tough to model they're really kind of tough to see you see the
Starting point is 00:55:32 game is going away from the change-up it's you know they throw it less and uh try to think of who are the uh most elite starting pitchers with change-ups and Yeah, Sandy. You said like Gossman, Sandy. It's not that many. Yeah, like Sandy, Sandy, Sandy. Yeah, Gossman's a splitter. So if you don't want to put those in, then you're looking at Sandy. And Sandy had a little bit of struggle
Starting point is 00:55:57 at the beginning of his career too. So if you just want someone to hit the ground running, I love the idea of an elite fastball and elite breaking ball which is andrew painter okay so you're you're big are you andrew painter over grayson rodriguez i'm maybe i you know the that's that's those are i i'm an inherently biased person but uh that's what i would love to have is uh like to think about like strider mcclain like a lot of these guys that hit the ground running they're young they have really big fastballs and a great breaking ball,
Starting point is 00:56:26 you know, and this is a breaking ball league. So it's picking the nits, though, because I'm not going to say I don't like Brayson Rodriguez as a prospect. I have seen his stuff numbers. They're good. So, you know, they're great, you know, so I'm into him. But Painter, maybe just a nose ahead. And then Tiedemannann and who was the fourth?
Starting point is 00:56:47 And Brandon Fott. Brandon Fott's a little bit further down the list, but I mean, he was the most dominant pitcher in the minors last year. And it's hard to argue across the board with- I just feel like the D-backs, if we're talking about sort of this year, then that's what I'm talking about.
Starting point is 00:57:01 Because I think long-term, I might like Grayson better because he has a larger arsenal. Right now, I'm really sure that Andrew Painter has a great fastball and great breaking ball. I don't know about third and fourth pitches. Whereas Grayson, I'll give him the credit. I think he has a full arsenal.
Starting point is 00:57:17 With Fott, I'm worried that the D-backs have to run through some options in that rotation first. I really like Ryan Nelson better than most people. that the D backs have to run through some options in that rotation first. You know, I like really, really like Ryan Nelson better than most people. And so I think Nelson's going to get that shot over Jameson. Maybe Jameson heads to the pen because at some point they need one of their starting pitchers to head to the pen because that pen is bad.
Starting point is 00:57:40 It's maybe the, one of the worst in baseball this year. And this is a team that is starting to get close to contention. So if they start to win some games, they are going to push somebody that used to be a starter into the bullpen, I think. Because you're talking about what's their worst problem? Jordan shortstop, Jordan Lallar. That's their worst problem offensively. Once they get Jordan Lallar, I feel like this team could compete as it is you know and a big power
Starting point is 00:58:10 yeah uh but they need they need a bullpen yeah and um and Nelson's gonna move up and then maybe they get Jameson a shot before fought so if you're talking about sort of pecking order and and who's gonna get the chance I feel likeelson gets the fifth man job out of spring training jameson gets the the first shot if somebody gets hurt and fought only comes up if somebody gets hurt for like the year or if there's another injury which obviously happens all the time but uh you know they have one through six right now with some young guys in there so i'm not i'm just not sure how many innings Fott will get in the major league this year. And that's a big question.
Starting point is 00:58:47 Any last thoughts on Ricky Tiedemann? I think Tiedemann is going to play in the major leagues this year. I think I really like his slider. I want to know more about his command. He had a pretty poor present value 20 command from Fangrass when they looked at him. Um, but it's, you know, in the numbers, it hasn't been that bad. Um, so I, I, but I do think that they, they kind of need him. And, uh, you know, I think, uh, the, the blue Jays right now have Kikuchi versus white for fifth, whoever loses that is probably in the pen so that means teetamon's the sixth starter in toronto and if the opportunity comes up 29 walks over 78 innings
Starting point is 00:59:33 with 117 strikeouts last year had a barely over two era over 18 starts pound the zone strikes everybody out he is a fascinating guy guy who went three levels as well. He went from low A all the way up to double A. And in double A, he was his worst ERA, which was 2-4-5. It was a 2-4-5 ERA, striking out 14 in four games. He's going to start at double A. And next thing you know it, he might be in that rotation. It's really interesting.
Starting point is 01:00:03 And in a couple of weeks, especially with camps, camps are starting up on here on Wednesday. They're going to be going on obviously through all spring. We're going to just get a lot more information. We're going to get notes and nuggets of guys doing this and teams doing this, that it's going to even be a better time for us to dig into prospects that are going to help in redraft for this year.
Starting point is 01:00:22 We're going to do that in a couple of weeks. And in the next couple of Tuesdays, when we're doing these prospect dynasty ones, I think we're going to help in redraft for this year. We're going to do that in a couple of weeks. And in the next couple of Tuesdays, when we're doing these prospect dynasty ones, I think we're going to focus on hitting prospects and pitching prospects. We're going to be a little prospect heavy for a couple of weeks, and we might alter some things that people can look out for. But if you guys want, you guys can check out the dynasty ranks. You can leave a wonderfully kind,
Starting point is 01:00:40 nice comment to me to make me feel so nice. And I'll smile. You know, you can make me smile. If you welcome him to the rates and barrels family. That's right. Do something. Now everyone actually said very, very nice things. Uh, if you don't already have a, uh, um, a sign up and a login and an account, you can do that. Just go over to the athletic.com slash rates and barrels $2 a month for the first year is going to get you rocking. You can get my stuff and you can get all of Eno's fantastic artists and everybody's. It's really cool going to get you rocking. You can get my stuff and you can get all of Eno's fantastic artists and
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Starting point is 01:01:19 baby DVR, baby VR coming here soon. So we're, we're all thinking about Derek and hopefully we're, are making everything positive for you guys. You guys are going to have Al and Eno later in the week. That's going to wrap everything up. Thank you guys so much for listening and putting up with me.
Starting point is 01:01:33 Eno, thank you so much for all the talk. We'll talk to you next time right here on Rates and Barrels. Thanks for listening.

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