Rates & Barrels - Early Arsenal Changes & Big Splashes for Saves

Episode Date: April 3, 2023

DVR and Welsh discuss takeaways from the Opening Series, including a closer look at the arsenal of Kodai Senga, the 'new' Noah Syndergaard, the significant increase in steals right out of the gate, plus a few massive free-agent bidding pickups from the first in-season waiver run in many leagues.  Rundown 4:30 Kodai Senga's Mets Debut 7:23 New Pitches & Velo Spikes Drive Quick Decisions 14:27 Jeffrey Springs & 'Buy High' Considerations 22:04 Noah Syndergaard Version 3.0 36:27 Ranking Dodgers Starting Pitchers By Expected Innings Pitched 42:52 By the Numbers, Early Impact of New Rules 47:04 Weekend FAB Takeaways Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Welsh on Twitter: @IsItTheWelsh e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Derek Van Ryper here with Chris Welsh, Eno Saris on vacation, enjoying some much-deserved time off. It sounded like he didn't necessarily love being on the pod every single day while I was gone. I think you guys did an awesome job while I was out. I tried to listen to as many shows as I could at very random hours of the day. So I have some fragments of what happened while I was gone and i think you guys did an awesome job while i was out i tried to listen to as many shows as i could at very random hours of the day so i have some fragments of what happened while i was gone but one of the things i could tell was that you know was getting a little burnout from the heavier schedule while i was gone yeah it was fun talking with you know about it too because it would be like yeah yeah we're gonna have derrick back and then you know we just have this like oh thank god and then i was like i don't think it was that bad was i and then he was like no no it's just hosting and yeah i mean five days a week

is pretty tough especially with everything that you know is going on with you know and all the great articles i mean i felt like you know over even the last couple weeks uh which we dearly missed you by the way but like him and i would just go on with things probably as you two would go and then you would have like two or three article ideas that would pop out of it. Me and Eno kind of ended up doing that where you could hear the articles starting to roll and be created. But yeah, he deserves it. Have some sandwiches, have some beers, and share it with all of us.

I think he had a really nice meetup in New York as well on Friday, it looked like, from the pictures. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. That looked great. Had some nice sandwich pictures over the weekend. I think he did something like five sandwiches, ten beers in three days

or something. I might have the numbers a little wrong. The beer number seems a tad low. I was about to say, TBR, the beer number might be a little bit higher. Maybe that was on Friday alone. For writing purposes, I think it was ten, but I think for enjoyment purposes, it may have been slightly more than ten. On this episode, we're going to dig into some important news and notes coming out of

the weekend. We had some players debuting, making big league debuts. We had team debuts. We saw some injuries. Just some observations, really, because this is a new season with some new rules, and we're already seeing the impact of those changes through the first time through the rotation for teams, which is pretty amazing. We actually have some stats about the things that have changed from the early part of last year to the early part of this season. So we'll get into those. We're also going to do a little bit of a weekend fab review. Take a look back at what people did over the weekend in free agency with their fantasy teams,

because it gives us a better sense of how to manage fab going forward. Of course, with the new shows we put in this feed this year we've got the waiver show on friday this is sort of a connected segment to that where if you want to learn how to fish you got to see how other people fish like that's just part of the process because i think one thing people say when they start playing in the league with fab the first time is this is really weird and difficult it's not like anything else i've ever done before and i agree i think it takes a couple seasons sometimes to really get used to that process. So we're going to try and help people speed that up. I think I'm still getting used to it. I mean, I've been doing it for a long time because you also have two different elements you have, which is going to dominate the NFBC based element is going to dominate the

conversation, which is a thousand dollars. And you see guys bidding $143 on this guy and that, but then you also have a lot more basic leagues, which are going to just run a hundred, you know? So then that's why I think guys like you and I, I try to do at least the most as possible is I try to speak in percentage terms. That's the best way I can do it in rounding it up instead of, you know, this dollar amount or anything like that, because they just don't translate. And if you've never done it before, it's eye-opening. If you used $100, even though it's still basic math that you can figure out, it's still jarring when you're trying to get that little edge over. It's like, is this guy going to go for 15%?

Do I go 155, 156? It's a game where, boy, can you feel good when you beat a guy by $2 or $3, it. It's a game where, boy, can you feel good when you beat a guy by two or three dollars, but it is heartbreaking when you're decimated by a $2 bid when you went really hard on a player. Yeah. I think what's really tough about it is that you could use an algorithm and probably come up with more accurate bids that way, but there is some element of it that's feel. It's knowing your league, knowing the tendencies of the people in the room understanding how aggressive a particular group of players is with certain categories when we talk about this you're going to see saves of course sources of saves and steals always come at a premium if you're in an nfbc league if you're in a non-nfbc league those premiums might not be quite as steep

so a lot to get to today i figure we start with some debuts because we saw kodai singa make his actual mets debut and if i remember correctly there were people getting eyes on him back during I figure we start with some debuts because we saw Kodai Singha make his actual Mets debut. And if I remember correctly, there were people getting eyes on him back during first pitch Florida. That was his spring debut with the Mets. And this was a pretty good debut. 10 whiffs, 9 on the forkball, max velo, 99.9 miles per hour. He also threw 18 sweepers and 12 cutters in the outing. So four pitches, had him working, pretty easy matchup for him going up against the Marlins. But how are you feeling

seeing a little more of Singa now this spring and now seeing a start that actually counted over the weekend? Yeah, actually, by the way, he cashed a nice little bet for me too, because his strikeout prop was five and a half. The problem though, is he was really low strikeouts early on. So I was kind of like tuned into this game, you know, with a couple of guys. I had him pair, what a weird pairing. Check this out. I had a three pairing DVR of Kodai Senga,

Graham Ashcraft and Joe Ryan. And I ended up hitting that. It was a K prop across the board. So I was paying attention to it. Low Ks to start. And it was a little bit wild. I think he really had to kind of find himself. If I remember correctly,

maybe you just said this, I think all whiffs and strikeouts came off of that ghost fork. Yeah, all but one, yeah. All but one. And the fastball was just kind of like wavering across the board and he was struggling with early command on it.

It'll be interesting to see where that goes, but I think the most promising thing was just how he was able to recover from it. It'll be interesting to see where that goes, but I think the most promising thing was just how he was able to recover from it. Because like I said, if you watch the whole start, I think early on, it didn't look great. Numbers weren't going well. The fastball wasn't going, but the forkball, he just had absolute presence of throwing it almost 30% of the time. And the fastball usage being so low to go from forkball to sweeper to four seam, all almost in the same pairing with that type of movement makes him devastating. The only thing I'm concerned about, the only thing I'm concerned about is where this goes

into the future. Because if all the damage is done off the forkball, I've cited this a lot of times before, so apologies, but like, you know, Casey Mize, you know, Casey Mize was renowned for that splitter that he had. Oh, it's the best ever, blah, blah, blah, you know, best in the minor leagues. And then just guys just stopped swinging at it. And then you had to go on the other stuff. Kodasinga stuff is way better. You know, sweeper looks good, fastball is good and stuff like that. But I'm going to be very curious once the league has kind of a vision, you know, the shape of that forkball and he can't go on it, what's that going to look like for strikeouts and how the league has kind of a vision you know the shape of that forkball and he can't

go on it what's that going to look like for strikeouts and how the league is going to adjust him overall but that's me being i don't know maybe a little wet blanket off of what was like a really good start yeah you're not usually the wet blanket type at least in the past when i've talked to you i've never got that impression from you but no it's important early in the season when you see something really good just when you see something really good just when you see something really bad to not overreact you want to act you want to be responsive to what's happening because some of the things we see are going to be very impactful and this is the time of year when you can end up making some really great pickups that people could be overlooking

i saw this tweet before we started recording this from lance brzdowski. He does a lot of work for the Marquee Sports Network with the Cubs play. And he had this breakdown of several pitchers who went over the weekend. I think these might've been all guys that actually pitched on, yeah, they pitched on Sunday, who have different pitches in their arsenal. And you mentioned a couple of them, I think there, Joe Ryan and Graham Ashcraft were among the six that he wrote up. And I think the biggest takeaway I had, he's got Jeffrey Springs in there, and Springs was shooting up draft boards over the last few weeks and pitched really well in his debut against the Tigers. But if you start to see names that you thought you'd figured out on lists like this,

popping up with new pitches when you look at their StatCast page, you have to rewrite the book on them. And I think the guy that really jumped off the page when I looked at this tweet, Brad Keller. Lance has Brad Keller with two new breaking balls. Last year only had the slider. And this year he's got a sweeper, plus he's got a curveball. And the curveball is actually his new best pitch. And Brad Keller was always a guy that never really had a pitch that I liked. So now he's got something that actually works really well and a deeper arsenal.

So instead of having this reaction now where I see Brad Keller and his upcoming matchups and I just go, ah, it's Brad Keller. It's got to be just an absolute layup. I'm going to stream him. I'm rethinking it. I'm tuning in the next time he pitches. I'm trying to do a little more homework before the next fab run and I'm possibly changing my tune with him. I think

if you're looking for indications of something that have changed in a meaningful way, the arsenal in games that count is a huge thing to look for in the early part of the season that can actually shift a player's value in a ton of directions. Yeah, I completely agree with that. We saw the same thing with one of my favorite... Just if we want to look like opening day in the first, you know, four games of all the players, we're kind of like hyper-focused on what happened, you know, Saturday and Sunday, but Pablo Lopez is the same way. Pablo Lopez implemented a sweeper,

which he threw 22% of the time. And that thing was effective. And that looked like it completely changed. He also had an uptick in Velo, but that new added sweeper has me excited and that's you know the trend we've talked about a whole lot you were while you were out i mean you know and i felt like we talked about at every point like every other pitcher took their slider and just cut it in half and it was like here's a gyro and here is a sweeper but the sweeper trend is out there and we're seeing some you know big positive turns and those are things I agree with you. Those are things that I'm looking for. There are a couple of pitchers out there early on that I thought had some good, just sneaky

uptick performances, but we're hyper-focused on these big arsenal changes. And I agree. Brad Keller is pretty interesting. Great tweet by Lance. I had read that earlier this morning. Graham Ashcraft was another person that jumped out. And Pablo Lopez is one of my favorites from the last couple of days because you had the two best things.

You had a new pitch that was great and had really, really high whiff rate on it. And also you had a velo uptick. And those are a couple of things that I'm looking for when you're trying not to like crazily overreact. It's stuff that gets you excited, though. And I think it's also beyond pickups. It could also be something that leads you to make an early season trade because the value shift might not be there

in the mind of the person who has these pitchers rostered already. And perhaps because they have an overperforming pitcher, they've got excess. They're willing to make a deal. So I think that's something to keep in mind, too. That's how I feel about Pablo Lopez specifically because I felt like he's like a back-end guy. Maybe he costs a tiny bit more, but giving you exacts on it, he's this new sweeper, which

he didn't even have. I'm looking. I don't even think I realized this. He didn't even have a slider last year, but he had a cutter, which he essentially destroyed his cutter, which last year had a 24% whiff rate. He threw it around 9% of the time, cutter variation of like a slider. And now he's got this sweeper, which he threw 22% of the time. So last year he was only two pitches over 10% usage. This first start four pitches over 10% usage and that sweeper, which

no one had seen and was about four, about four miles an hour, less Cutter, had a 72.7% whiff rate on it. I mean, that's the stuff that I get kind of jacked up about. And I would love to kind of buy low on him right now in a trade. But I also think there were a lot of guys, you mentioned like Brad Keller, there's guys like hitters, Nolan Gorman and stuff that might just be free and might be cheap. And were probably players that you were looking at in fab

that you were picking up. But Pablo Lopez is one of those guys I'd be actually looking at trading for. This is probably a good time to remind everyone too that Eno's Stuff Plus model is available on Fangraph. So you can look at this stuff right away and just see how impactful some of these changes are, how much the model actually likes the shape and movement of these new pitches. You know, with Keller, there were some location issues, so obviously that's something to be mindful of, but you still need usually about three starts before you can really start to buy fully into what the model is capturing.

Encouraging to see guys like Graham Ashcraft, though, coming out right now, tied for third in Stuff Plus. Otani, Hunter Green, Jacob deGrom, Graham Ashcraft, based on the Stuff Plus model that Eno has. Can I ask you, to what you just said, how would you approach that?

Because I agree with you. Obviously, all of this is sample size-based. We need more before, and people overreact on both sides. How are you personally balancing losing the track? Because let's take Pablo Lopez. If Pablo Lopez or Brad Keller, whatever, if those guys were to be dominant over two more starts, their cost keeps rising. What's the thing that makes you pull the trigger early without seeing the really great sample size?

For me, it's the combination of the new pitch and the velo increase. Those are two things, right? There's two ways. If Pablo Lopez doesn't hold the velo, knowing that the arsenal's deeper, that makes him better. And if he holds both, it's a massive step forward for him. I think when it's a difference in just the pitches, I'm a little more of like, hey, let's just see if these pitches are actually good and effective.

Because now that teams have seen them, they're going to make adjustments, right? Are the guys going to tee off on this pitch now that they know it's part of the arsenal, or is it actually going to be as effective as it was when maybe it surprised the first team that saw it because it was something that they did a good job not really showing anybody over the course of the spring. It's tricky, but I think

the more exciting the player who does something like this, the harder it is to still go get a deal done. I think Brad Keller is right in that sweet spot of really boring guy that no one likes that wouldn't take much to pry Brad Keller loose in a deep league trade or possibly to scoop him up off the wire.

I wouldn't even have to bid much to get him. You know, it's funny. We actually have like different levels. This is like the latter effect of pitchers. You have like the bottom ring is like Brad Keller, a guy that you could probably go pick up off the wire now. And then you move up to Graham Ashcraft, you know, who maybe was owned, you know, being talked as the big three, maybe was owned at the very bottom, but still might be available.

Then you got to get like Pablo Lopez who was drafted, you know, low who might be pushing up. And then you mentioned it before, like Jeffrey Springs, Jeffrey Springs performance was absolutely dominant, you know, and the change up was sick and everybody kind of doing the like oh it's the tigers and stuff but that's another one of those guys that had massive crazy big performances but not to like turn it on to all these we're talking about guys to acquire when take a thing like jeffrey springs is that a player that you think it's a peak type of thing because i still think think he's got top easy, top 20 SP upside, but he goes out, has a phenomenal performance this weekend,

plays above expectations, tied for strikeouts. Is that a guy that you're now out there pushing maybe in trades? Or do you think the sample size isn't enough where people are going to pay what is deserved? I think you have to be in a pretty sharp league for Springs to be valued correctly. So if you had them and wanted to max out you need

to be in a league full of people that are totally into all the things that we're talking about i think he's more the kind of player you'd buy high on in a lot of leagues that our listeners plan which is not to at all disparage those leagues but i just think you you find different levels of competition springs has been buzzy in the high stakes market throughout draft season he was one of the pitchers whose adp jumped the most once we got to those main events at the end of March. I think the other thing about Jeffrey Springs, it's kind of interesting, and I'm curious if this is something that changes your opinion of a player or your evaluation of a player.

Springs is the kind of guy that, because the Rays gave him a multi-year extension, they wanted to lock in cost certainty with him. That, to me, was a little bit of an indicator that there was another level there. And we've seen, I mean, the Brewers have a couple guys they've done this with. Freddy Peralta got an extension really early. Aaron Ashby got an extension really early. I tend to fall for players that get those kinds of deals from their teams because I think it's a signal that their models internally really think those guys have a high ceiling and they want to keep costs as low as possible so i want to take advantage of that possible growth i kind of think i see that across the board i

wouldn't even just say like a team like like the razor we always have that radar up where it's like the rays trade a player we're like oh like if they're trading a player this must really be a problem like we should really be worried about it or if they're trading a player, this must really be a problem. We should really be worried about it. Or if they trade for a guy. But I looked at the same thing, shocker, I'm going to mention it, but like Corbin Carroll, for a team like the Diamondbacks to lock up a player at that point, I think it says a whole lot about the overall evaluation process. And how many times, I don't know what the success rate is. It'd be interesting to see what's the success rate of these younger guys in their first couple of years, locking up these type of deals, getting to play and then performing. There's something deeper to it.

Springs is different because Springs is like, did you just write that? I had that one ready. I'm going to go a full episode. By the way, anyone listening, it says we made it 16 minutes before Corbin Carroll came up. I got to do an episode without doing it. But my point is, is like, you know, you've got you've got these players that I think teams are more locked in and more cost savvy than ever before to try to throw around that type of money.

But I think it does tell something. But Springs is different. He's older. You know, he's been babied a little bit more. They have much more of a bigger sample size. And then you put it's been babied a little bit more they have much more of a bigger sample size and then you put it on top of like a really smart raised team i 100% think you're on to the right idea like they know there's something way bigger in there and we kind of saw it um on the table and another one of those guys that he implemented he didn't scratch a

slider or this is also like what baseball savant is going to pick up but he essentially didn't throw a sinker according to them which he only actually did like only a few times last year but he essentially scrapped the slider for this new sweeper and this new sweeper came in and was you know not dominant pitch but it completely changed the um the velo look of what people were used to with him where it was around 79 miles per hour. At least that was one of the tops on Jeffrey Springs. It just made, that was the average, 79.6. So he had, who's not a dominant velo type of pitcher, he had a good 12, 13 mile an hour difference with being able to kind of hold that pitch back and keep batters on their back foot.

Like he just looks phenomenal. He's a command guy that has big stuff that guys are swinging through because they think they can hit it to the moon, and they can't. I think the Rays see it, and I think they see the ability of what they're able to mold this guy into, and he looks like a top 20 SP right now. Yeah, that's the way he started

off. An excellent spring, excellent first start of the year for Jeffrey Springs, and probably someone that's still a little bit overlooked in the more shallow leagues out there despite the recent success. And he did it last year too. The amazing thing too, when you look back at his full professional track record at the big league level, Jeffrey Springs threw more innings working as a starter really for the first time as a big leaguer last year that he did as sort of an up and down reliever in the previous four seasons combined yeah well and that's kind of a big take on him you know what i'm curious about this who and this guy's going to be pitching today who would you rather have george springer or jeffrey springs this year moving forward

george springer george springer with ease You didn't even have to think about that. Yeah. I think George Springer is underrated. So if you got a trade offer, George Springer for your Jeffrey Springs, you pull the trigger right now. Yeah. Assuming I had enough pitching to still get by.

And yeah, I would. If the needs made sense, a hundred percent. Yeah. Yeah. It's like, I'm saying it's like a one for there.

Maybe it's like a, you know, a two piece trade. You see spring or you see the upgrade of Kirby over Springs significantly that maybe there's two position players involved. Because I'm just trying to get out there that I think you've got to figure out what levels you might believe in a guy like this. Because if you don't believe, and I would say this, if you don't believe he's a pitcher that is in the same territory as George Springer, then I think, I keep saying George Springer, I'm sorry, George Kirby. I think that is a signal to dangle Jeffrey Springs out there,

that you should look and see what the trade market looks like, because this is a great opportunity against a bad Detroit Tigers team that he did take advantage of. He's not going to have 12 strikeouts every game. Maybe that equates to six or seven strikeouts versus a much better Astros team or something like that. But maybe if you're not a believer that he's in that territory, you should put him out there right now and take advantage of the early trade market. Just a thought. Even though I'm a believer, just something to chew on. Yeah.

If it's George Kirby versus Jeffrey Springs, that's closer. I think I saw him. Did I say George Springer? The whole time. Yeah. I thought you were making a spring pun. No, I was trying to say George Kirby. My brain DVR. George Kirby.

Kirby. Alright, so I'm Springer here. Kirby and Jeffrey Springs real close together. I think part of me, George Kirby throws a little harder, has that excellent command, also has a pretty pitcher-friendly environment, but if you said, I want Jeffrey Springs instead of George Kirby, a little harder, has that excellent command, also has a pretty pitcher-friendly environment. But if you said, I want Jeffrey Springs instead of George Kirby,

I wouldn't talk you out of that. I think they're close enough in value, and they became close enough in value at the end of draft season. You're not giving anything up. You're not hurting yourself. You're just making a call based on what you see and what you believe at this point, which is totally fine. And that also makes sense why you're talking about the pitching depth on the trade.

You're like, yeah, if you're pitching, hold up. I're like yeah if your pitcher could hold up i'm like what are you talking about like george kirby is a pitch i think i kept saying george springer so yes okay so you do have uh springs and kirby in the same territory so i think that's kind of telling ish within arm's reach of each other reasonable even trade if it's a one-for-one challenge trade it also it helps you if you were the one that if you wanted George Kirby and you had Springs, it helps you a lot if Kirby gets hit a little bit in that first start. You need that little something extra to entice the other side to actually make that deal. Whoa, what are you listening to this for?

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Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze and it felt a little like life's a trip make the most of it at best western let's get to a few more changes noah cinder guard which a lot was made of the velo not coming back this spring i don't think anybody expected to come all the way back to his pre to John levels. I think the hope was if you were drafting Noah Syndergaard,

if you were buying into the idea that the Dodgers could take this version of Thor and do something similar to what they did with the success they had with Tyler Anderson last season, it was getting at least some of the velocity back. So we saw it for a start, maxed out at 94.3 with the

sinker, a very new slider that he's throwing a lot harder the slider was up by like 90 so that's a big difference for him it's closer to a cutter i think it's actually a cutter and it's not being designated because it was a five mile per hour uptick and that's way more cuttery than it is because also i believe he had across the board downtick in Velo off of last year. And just to add, like, to your point, I think their expectations is because the Dodgers told us that they expect his Velo to come back. It wasn't just like, oh, hey, he's a Dodger. They'll fix him.

They're like, no, you're going to see an uptick in Velo. And we did not. We actually saw a downtick, I believe, in Velo across the board, except for this slider, quote unquote, that was five mile an hour faster, which I think is just a cutter at that point. Because it also had a whole lot less, I want to say horizontal movement. It was way more cutter-ish. Yeah. So I guess the question I have for you is, if you were going to re-project Noah Syndergaard right now, which I think this is a fair time to do it. We've had spring. We've had our regular season start.

I know the models absorbed what happened last year with the K rate falling off, and he got punished. I mean, the bat had Noah Sindergaard projected for a 498 ERA and a 134 whip going into the season. That seemed pretty high to me even before getting a chance to see what he was going to do with his new arsenal. Where are you at right now? And for context, last season, Noah Syndergaard had a.394 ERA at a.125 whip for the Angels. It was 134 in two-thirds innings, only 95 Ks. He had a 16.8% strikeout rate. Did a good job with control, 5.5% walk rate.

So what do you think we're going to see with the skills? Like where, strikeout rate projection in terms of percentage. do you think noah cinder guard has for the season 27 was what he had in the first start of the year but what do you think it looks like at the end of this season oh man this is such a tough battle because it's like the dodgers um i think the the low end is he's out of this rotation because they have too many guys they have too many good guys that are coming out. Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone. I just don't know how long they're going to mess around with it.

The Diamondbacks were not scoring runs. The Diamondbacks, by the way, took two from the Dodgers, and I think they scored six total runs, which is silly. I think the stolen base thing is on point again. That's going to be a problem that the Dodgers are not going to want to put up with. Will Smith is having some early problems. And if you watch Corbin Carroll, now that we're 20-something minutes, Corbin Carroll stole second and third on two consecutive pitches without a throw, without a single

throw he was able to do that. And I think that's going to kind of come back into focus. I think it puts pressure in. I don't like, and I'm saying all this that doesn't have to do with the arsenal. I don't think the Dodgers are actually going to be able to truly fix this. Maybe that cutter was a new look that I think teams are going to kind of get back in on. But the only thing that had any effective whiffness was his changeup in this start. The VELOs were down.

The saving grace is going to be the offense that's going to be there to support him. So I think it's going to be repeating outside of maybe a little bit lower ERA than last year with the potential that maybe he's not in this rotation if the struggles do come up. I mean, they're hitting. Colorado's hitting. This division's hitting is what I'm trying to say. The Padres are hitting.

If he gets tagged a little bit, how much are they going to be able to hold off outside of injuries across the board? Are they going to be able to hold off outside of injuries across the board? Are they going to be able to hold off Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone? I mean, Michael Grove is still, I think he's getting a start today. When these young guys are coming, I don't have firm, firm trust in Noah Syndergaard. I mean, do you? Is that cutter enough for you to feel good that things have changed? It's enough for me to say that he's probably useful as a streamer more than half

the time if we're talking about a reasonably deep mixed league i think if you're chasing cinder guard in like a 10 team league you're probably expecting a little too much but that's that's not a great fit that's i'd be a little i'd be a little more careful about the matchups i'd use them in there but thinking a lot about those 15-team leagues where he was reasonably cheap, and I don't have him more than once across nine rosters. The same. I don't think I'm going out trying to make a lot of trades for him,

but at the same time, I think the projection's overcorrected. I think the K rate's going to be in the low 20, like 22%, 23% range. I think that's reasonable because the control's not bad. Maybe he's almost like a guy that's going to go through the lineup twice a lot of days in close games and then just turn it over to their bullpen so depending on how efficient he is you know maybe maybe it's five and fly a lot of times and that's enough to get wins if he's consistently doing the i guess like the 2022

chris archer thing he's going to be a maddening player to have rostered because a big part of why you take the chance is to get those w's and if he's going four and a maddening player to have rostered because a big part of why you take the chance is to get those W's. And if he's going four and a third, four and two thirds, I realize he went six at his first start of the season. I just hope we're not setting expectations too high based on the depth of that first outing. OK, let me ask you this. And this is, again, apologies for the homerism. There's going to sound in this Dre Jamison, Dre Jamison. Madison Bumgarner is cooked and washed and it's a bad look and i think the diamondbacks have nicely used whatever fatigue excuse it is to send him

back and will nicely put him on the il as a favor while they figure out what to do dre jameson came in in replacement 66 pitches he threw a slider he did a hunter green over 50% usage on his slider which was crazy this is something we don't necessarily see you know 51.5% his slider had a 66% whiff rate he threw a sinker and a four seam so essentially two ish pitch guy but a 50% whiff rate on his foreseam and his slider. He looked great. He was commanding a 29% K percentage. I believe firmly that he is going to get the next start in replacement. I might be at that game, by the way. I'll be at opening day for the Diamondbacks. It'll be Dre Jameson in replacement. And if we see some of the same, it's going to be hard for him to take

it off. So my question lines to where everyone knows, would you dump a guy like Noah Syndergaard in replacement of, you can replace the type of pitcher, by the way, it could be another young pitcher that, but Dre Jamison seems to be the guy. I love the pitch mix change, love the early Ks. He looked dominant. Would you dump a guy like Syndergaard knowing what the floor is for the upside of a guy like Dre Jamison who could take that rotation spot and really showed off in that almost 70 pitch relief performance. I think you could afford it if you don't have another stash already, but I think I'm looking at the schedule when I make a move like that. I think seeing Arizona again, feel pretty good about that start, even though it comes on the road, getting the Cubs at home next week for Cinder guard, looking a little further ahead,

kind of like that matchup. Bottom half of that Cubs lineup is brutal. Cody Bellinger's in cleanup for them right now. That would have been cool like three years ago, but he's not that guy anymore. I look at that matchup as one that I really for a Dodgers starter

especially, I'm looking forward to that. At least these next couple turns, Syndergaard's probably in for me. If I'm looking forward to that. At least these next couple turns, Syndergaard's probably in for me. If I'm loaded with pitching I can use in those spots. I'm looking at my lineup and I'm like, I'm good this week. I'm good next week. I'll take the chance on Jameis. I think you're right. When you look at Arizona,

I don't even know how Zach Davies was brought back. I know you want depth, but they gave him enough money where I think they're going to give him at least a month and he pitched well in his first start. The longer he pitches well, the longer they're going to keep going down that road. We saw Brandon Fott get rocked in his first start at Reno this

season. Reno's going to Reno, but you can't give up, was it three homers in that start? No, four. You can't give up four homers, I think. I don't know if he even got pulled. JJ Bled was taking it, but yeah, you can't give up that many homers. That's why when when people saw Baumgartner going, I immediately was like, this is Dre Jameson.

Dre's going to get the shot in replacement. They haven't announced anything, but if Baumgartner misses a start, it'll be Dre that they throw into that spot. And he's just a fascinating big strikeout guy. But I guess you're alluding to, this is a battle between short in front of me season take versus long season take and it's interesting because i hear nick pollock talk about that our buddy over at

kind of really get hyper focused on the beginning of the season and that may be i don't know taking place some of his decision making on the first couple starts versus what i don't know i think you got to be attuned to especially at this point similar to how like you know gambling books haven't quite caught up to what they need to margin some of the K props and some of the prop market. The same thing, we have to act quickly before things adjust to what the early free agents are going to look like. And it's like if a guy like, and Dre Davidson may get lit up in his next start and it doesn't

matter, but these guys that are getting these early opportunities, you have to jump now and you're going to have to make some big decisions, whether it was in fab and you're jumping in on closers or you're trying to find replacements. You've got to make some big, deep decisions right now. And it's just like, what drives you? And for you, it sounds like it is what is kind of in front of me. And I'll deal with later, later, maybe is the approach that sounds like that you're taking. Yeah. And I think that comes from a few years of pretty harsh lessons, especially playing in the NFBC main event, not playing in it this year. I played the big auction last year instead.

The first few years I played NFBC, I thought I can stash players for the future. I can have a bunch of guys that are going to get called up later. I can have a couple of guys who are hurt. My bench can be mostly guys who are going to be stars when they're healthy, stars when they're up. You lose. You don't accumulate enough stats. You fall behind. It's a volume game. No matter how much we want it to be only skills, volume matters. Playing time matters. Roles right now matter more. I know the old adage from Ron Chandler, draft skills, not roles. That's true. You should draft skills, not roles. But when you make in-season decisions, roles actually do make a huge difference.

That's why we talk so much about two-start pitchers in weekly leagues. The value of two-start pitchers is a lot higher than many people realize. You need to get volume at each and every opportunity. So do you think Dre Jamison versus Noah Syndergaard is roles versus skills? Yeah, it is right now because Syndergaard is roles versus skills? Yeah, it is right now because Syndergaard can go five plus and Jamison can't until that switch

happens. And then once the switch happens, it's the kind of trade that I feel like you have to make that move now, but you have to have the roster set up correctly to where you can just use a guy who's in the bullpen potentially for a few more turns. We'll see. I think you might be right. I think Jamison would be on schedule so they could just use him in that spot. That's what I think. Yeah, I think that's going to happen. Okay, let me turn it to one last one then

because I know I get like this, but it's just, I think it's also relevant. It's top of mind, but I know it's dumb diamondbacks. Brad Keller or Noah Syndergaard. You see, you're talking about big changes, kind of exciting seeing there, but you want to see a couple more starts stuff plus versus noah syndergaard i just think noah syndergaard ceiling is um it's very it's similar to alice in wonderland in the beginning scene where they're opening that

little door and trying to squeeze in like you have to get smaller to fit through there i just don't believe in the ceiling of syndergaard so ke Keller or Syndergaard? Very fair toss-up. And I think team context makes the difference for me there, whereas I think Syndergaard, if his arsenal is not good enough to get through the lineup a third time, his team trusts him. I should say, I trust his

team, I trust the Dodgers to do right and use their bullpen and get him out of those games. With Keller, I think we've seen a pretty long pattern of the Royals just leaving their foot on the gas, just saying, you're out there. Stay out there. Stay out there. Go six. Go six. Go six. And then the third time to the order, if those new secondaries aren't working, if teams start to figure that out, that's when he's going to get crushed. And then, of course, run support and the quality of the team around him,

there's a difference there. Very, very close in terms of presence skills. I think that's a great toss-up. It's a better bullpen, by the way, with the Royals. I just want to point out. Aroldis looked phenomenal. He did look good. They got Barlow. I think they actually have a little bit more going for them in the bullpen.

Do you think this is being – last thing on Senegard. Do you think I'm making too much about not being interested in him? I can't quite tell. The team context is playing a huge role, as it should, but do you think the stuff is better than maybe my disinterest? I don't like velo downticks outside of this new adjusted

cutter or slider, whatever the hell you want to call it. There's just downticks across the board. Do you think it's being made too much and it's way too early, or are you kind of with like this there's maybe some warning signs on syndicate even though by the way he had a good start against a very poor crappy diamondbacks offense i think it's just more of a an arsenal depth plus location sort of profile than the i'm going to come out and just blow you away and be

overpowering i think you just have to recalibrate your expectations for him. I think sometimes we see the name on the page and we expect a ceiling that was equal to what it used to be. And maybe people did this with Madison Bumgarner for a little while after he left San Francisco. Oh, he's Bumgarner. He's going to come back. Sometimes they don't come back.

Sometimes they've just aged enough where the stuff doesn't play the same way. But I think there is some room. If you told me last year's ratios are still possible for Syndergaard, I wouldn't push back on that. I think that's actually a pretty reasonable expectation. Last year's ratios with a better K rate, very playable in a decent number of

leagues. That actually ends up being more playable in 12s than people would assume too. I don't know. I think I'm definitely more in on Syndergaard than you are even though I have lowered the ceiling considerably from where it was. Part of that's organizational trust. Part of that's command.

Part of that is just the depth of the arsenal. Yeah, I just also look at the depth of the team. But they're willing to go six. And I think if they played piggybacks, that would be fascinating. I mean, can you imagine Noah Syndergaard to Bobby Miller or Bobby Miller to – I just don't know why you'd want to start off a young guy like that and be the lead and let Syndergaard go. But if you get two tractions through with Syndergaard and then go to a guy like Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone, you got one phenomenal starter out of that if Syndergaard is effective the first one or two times through.

Here's a question for you that's not on the rundown, so this is totally fair. Dodgers starting pitchers. Who are your top four in innings pitched this year when the season ends? I assume everyone's got Urias first. Yeah, so you got Urias first. You got Urias, then you got your choices of May, Kershaw, Cindergard, and Michael Grove. You can add Pepio once he's back, Gonsolin. Anybody who's hurt can be a part of this too still.

There's plenty of time for that top four. But after Urias, where do the bulk of the innings come from? Who comes in second, third, and fourth? And how many innings do they really get from each of those guys? Is there a world where Clayton Kershaw goes 150 or 160 again? I think there's a world. I'm going to say Dustin May is two. And then Kershaw's three four is fascinating i lean that that's going to be gonsolin because i feel like when gonsolin because

gonsolin's getting back close i think he just had a rehab uh maybe through a bullpen session i feel like he's getting close i don't have trust in syndergaard long term i don't think the rookies are going to be around there enough papio's already's getting close. I don't have trust in Syndergaard long-term. I don't think the rookies are going to be around there enough. Papio's already having injury problems, and I don't think he's assured. You know what? Here's a side thing. Maybe the third highest or fourth highest inning pitcher is not on this team yet, and maybe we're going to get that guy in the next month or two. The Dodgers have the ammunition to pull it off, but I'm going to go with Gonsolin. Maybe that's kind of the cheap, boring answer that's not fun. I know someone would like to hear Gavin Stone or Bobby Miller or something like that.

I think there's just a big clump of play. To be honest with you, maybe after that top three, it's just a big clump of players between Stone and Grove and Pepeo and Bobby Miller and Gonsolin and all those players just trying to fight for innings. I don't know if there's a clear cut. Maybe the fourth isn't even close to one through three. What do you think? I think that order is about the same as what I've got.

I would probably go Kershaw over May, even though we know we almost have a baked-in two- to four-week absence for Kershaw at some point just for back maintenance. I think part of what makes that so tricky is the Dodgers' depth and knowing that they can give someone a breather if they want to. They have that luxury. Right now, they do anyway. Bobby Miller is hurt right now. He's got a shoulder

injury. It's just soreness. We'll see if it turns into something serious. You mentioned Pepeo. He's got the obliques. They're already throwing Michael Grove out there. I wonder if you're right about this, where they're going to actually go out and trade for another established starter just to help stabilize things a little bit further. You could also see Bobby Miller ending up in the bullpen for this year and then going back to starting in the future because that bullpen is great as they are at finding relievers on the

scrap heap and developing guys. One more electric arm back there seems like it would be a nice addition for them. Well, also, you look at their minor league system. I mean, they could trade one of Papio. They could trade a Papio. I don't think they ever trade Stone, but they could trade a Grove or Bobby Miller or something like that in a trade. But also positionally, they're pretty flush at catcher. You've got Will Smith at the top. Dalton rushing, I think, is one of the biggest upcoming prospects. And that leaves Diego Cartaya. I actually watched Diego Cartaya have one of the worst performances I've ever seen in minor league spring training, just getting lit up by Peyton Battenfield with the Guardians, just strikeout after strikeout. But he is a big physical presence.

They've still got top players that they can go and move if they wanted to make a big trade. If there's a seller, and that's a bigger question, who's selling pitching right now? Who's selling solid pitching that a Dodger team would want to go buy in on? If there is one and you can find one, the Dodgers have roughly the ammunition to get, I don't want to say anybody because I don't think they can get anybody, but they could really have, you know, they could be one of the top teams to compete across the board for any pitching. And, you know, with the early struggles on offense, you know, Max Muncy's really struggling and they're still trying to find their footing and their placement with guys like James Altman and Trace Thompson. Maybe the best way is to not

go acquire more offense, which they're replacing with young guys, get more pitching, just get more and more pitching as much as you can. And their bullpen looks kind of dicey at the end too. Yeah, I think one of the trickier things too about the new expanded playoff format is it takes a few potential sellers away. Teams that would maybe consider moving a controllable starting pitcher can look at their playoff odds and say, no, we're going the other way. We're actually adding this roster. We're not moving. And the good news for the Dodgers is if there's a tax, if there's an added premium to going out and getting pitching in season, they can pay it. If anyone can pay a talent tax in a trade, it's them.

One that jumped out to me was maybe the Reds. If somehow the Dodgers could pry Graham Ashcraft away from that team. They've done trades before. Imagine him. Imagine Ashcraft with the Dodgers and pry graham ashcraft uh away from that team they've done trades before imagine him imagine ashcraft with the dodgers and what that would look like and that would be one of the it would feel similar to um i mean any of those young pitchers that get the hell out of the bad destinations like i was thinking like jose quintana when he left the pirates and went over to the cardinals like that was fun like that would be a plus move if you can get out of it but that's one of what three teams that you can really call out of it right now like the reds aren't competing but to

your point with uh the expanded wild card everybody's kind of viable diamondbacks are trying to be viable rockies you know they could kyle freeland herman marquez those could be got but those guys they probably feel after what they did this weekend they're viable so it's going to be really tough for teams to make those trades which leads to the weirdness of what the dodgers are dealing with and why there might be kind of a turn style of different arms to figure it out which lastly might lead to what your take is is maybe syndergard they have to lean on more and he's going to get more of a he's going to have you know more leeway than i think he normally should just because based off of the options that are sitting out there. What if he's more of a glue guy for them?

What if Syndergaard is this good in the regular season and then shorter stints in the playoffs sort of guy? Because I think if you look at like Jose Urquidy and how little he pitched for the Astros in the postseason last year, pretty good regular season starter, right? If Syndergaard's like that now, but then you also have the added benefit of saying, ooh, guess what? You're going two innings out of the pen when we

need you in the playoffs. Okay, that works because they've got higher ceiling guys that they're going to have more confidence in. By the end of the season, Gavin Stone takes over a spot and you feel better about Gavin Stone in October than you do about this version of Cinderguard. I could see something like that happening. Up your health game with

Sun Life and the Toronto Raptors health experts. Access nutritional tips, mental I could see something pretty interesting tweet from Jeff Passan. First four days of the baseball season, by the numbers, time of game, 2022, 3 hours, 9 minutes, 2023, 2 hours and 38 minutes. That's a 31- minute improvement. That is incredible, right? So we love that. Offensive line so far this season, 245, 323, 392. Last season, 230, 308, 374. You're basically up 15 points in average in OBP, 18 points in slugging. That seems good. We love that. We love that stolen bases last season, 29 of 43 at this point for a 67.4% success rate this year, 70 of 84, 83.3% success rate. That is incredible. And of course, pitch clock violations, which without those, I don't think

the typical viewer would even notice that things are changed. We know things are different because we've been reading and talking about it for months now. 40 pitch clock violations, less than one per game. If those didn't happen, you just think you're at a game that happened to be playing fast. I really, this is all for the better. The only thing that will lead me to change my tune about this is if we end up with a rash of pitching injuries. If the increase in fatigue units from working faster blows up a whole bunch of shoulders and elbows, I will say, fine, we're going back to the three hours. But if there's no negative consequence for the health of players keeping the pace of play like this this is a massive win i love it more please i'm kind of across the board you know what i'd be really interested in is someone did the math here i would love to know what the five are the 40 pitch clock violations

added in time like what was the total added you know because people are like oh i wonder how much time like what do you think like if 40, let's call it even 10. I mean, what, like five minutes total? Maybe five minutes total of extra time across MLB. The thing that is very interesting to me in two parts is clearly baseball, and we all probably knew this, but they found their way to get more offense. Everybody, you know, everyone loves long ball. Everyone loves offense.

And the moves that they made with the stolen bases and the pitch clock, not only is a pace thing, but you're seeing the offense uptick. I think pitchers having to go quicker. You're seeing, you've seen 15 point uptick

in batting average. And I think there's a clear offensive upside that's happening in there. And you're also seeing with the inability to throw over, you're seeing the success rate of stolen bases go up. I don't even focus so much on the total number because I think

that's pretty fluid right now. And we don't have enough to be like, holy crap, stolen bases are going to actually double. The success rate though is what stands out to me. And it really changes the profile across the board. But what baseball did is they found a way to speed the game up and make there be more offense. And there's really no downside. I mean, for us pitcher people that like great pitching matchups and stuff like that. Okay. That's might be a little bit stinky, but at the end of the day, we want the game to thrive.

And yeah, I don't get any of the backlash also against the games being less. It's great. It's fantastic under three hours whether it's me sitting watching at home or me being on a backfield this is the best thing ever i i think it's great across the board and you said it perfect as long as we don't see a bigger rash of pitching injuries i don't really see the downside of anything that's going on right now i mean think about watching your favorite team let's say six times a week, 30 minutes per game saved. That's three hours of your time back to watch other games.

That's a game. Go for a walk, go for a jog, cook your dinner, spend time with your family, call your friends, whatever it is. Like 30 minutes a day adds up, especially over a full season. Imagine if you got 30 minutes more of sleep a day, DVR, with the amount of sleep you're getting with the newborn. Imagine 30 minutes of more sleep. Don't even tempt me with that.

That's incredible. It almost sounds like you're going into an ad read for some kind of like pillow company. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Imagine 30 more minutes of sleep. What's your sleep number? It's close to zero right now. Yeah, I know, right?

It's hopefully going to get better in the next few weeks. A couple things before we go. Just some weekend fab takeaways. If you were looking back, you would have noticed that Pierce Johnson, the interim, we'll say, Rockies closer, was among the most popular pickups. I don't

understand how this happens. I realize Daniel Bard is on the IL right now. He's dealing with some anxiety, getting some treatment for that. All the best to him as he goes through that. Not really a timetable on when someone comes back from something like that. Totally understandable. But Pierce Johnson, pitching in Colorado, a really popular pickup.

That seems like fab that could be very poorly spent. Maybe it's because he could hold the job as a solo closer and not be part of a committee, but the max bid across the main event was $279. Even in the 12-team leagues, the smaller ones, the $350 entry fees is up in the

three-digit range as well there. That's 28%. 28% of fabs spent on a part-time closer right now is crazy. The closer market in general was crazy. I don't see them on this list, so in case I'm just not seeing it, forgive me.

But like AJ Puck went for an absurd amount of money. And I think I mean, I saw somebody post it was like $400, which have been 40% of Fab got spent on AJ Puck closing out a game for the Marlins. And Danny Jimenez also got a look with the A's over Trevor May. And I think he was into the double digit. Not that I'm for spending 40 or 30% on a guy like AJ Puck, but I would rather have spent my money on Jimenez or Puck for the potential long-term than I would have Pierce Johnson. Yeah. I think both of those other two have a better chance of being the guy all season. And even if you believe that, that is a massive commitment.

When you're talking about 20% of your budget, potentially 25%, 30% in some cases to get those players or more, you could be chasing players later and end up having a longer period of time where you're near min bids by bidding this aggressively. So it's definitely a long-term cost to that. You mentioned Dre Jameson earlier. Maxed out at 66 in the main event i think there are people already speculating on him taking a spot in that rotation it makes sense given the usage out of the bullpen right now i was a lot of interest yeah what should you spend more i spent a little bit more in tgfbi uh i spent 76 on him uh Just a tiny bit more aggressive. I don't think there are any other bids, though. So I was a solo guy.

But I'm happy. You know, 7%, whatever. I'm happy to hear, though, that the main event was almost about in line with the price that I had. And it was kind of uncontested. But we also had crazy saves. Like, I put a bid on one of the closers. I think it was Pierce, but I wasn't remotely close.

I think he went for like 17%, like $170. So comparatively, some people kind of joining the market with me on maybe Dre being a starter. So that, that, that makes me kind of feel good when no one else bid with me.

Yeah. I saw big bids on Michael Grove, reasonable big bids though, like a max of one 17. The median was closer to 54 in the main event. 117? rotation longer than expected. That could definitely pay off. Tyler McGill, all the hype we had early last season seems to be coming back around. Bids were mostly triple digits on him. 255 was the max on McGill. They're so banged up in that rotation and they're so old that you could see a scenario in which someone's always hurt and there's consistently an opportunity for McGill

if he continues to pitch well. Don't you think 255, real quick, don't you think 255 is a little too much though? Because I'm with you on that one, on McGill. I'm more open to it because I think it's a great point you bring up of the age and how kind of beat up they are. But 255 seems like a little too much to speculate to that level. I feel like 150, what was the average? Like 150? Yeah, 140, yep, for the median, yep. I don't know. We got the average? Like 150? Yeah, 140 for the median.

I don't know. We got 150 to 175. That would have been my range. That seems a bit high. Yeah, and even that might have been more aggressive than I would have been unless I was really hurting for some pitching because of some early season injuries. Jiwon Bae offering steals in the opening series, also commanding some large bids at the high end. Median was 33.

There was a wide range on Jiwon Bae because there's still some uncertainty about his playing time. Maybe a possible bargain in another young outfielder. Joey Weimer gets the call for the Brewers because of the Luis Urias injury. Welsh. So Urias is out. So Brian Anderson is going to move from the outfield to third base. Opens up right field.

Weimer has started three straight games since being called up. He's in the lineup again on Monday. So getting starts against same-handed pitching, I just think it's complicated because if he struggles, they have Sal Freelick waiting in the wings in the minors, and they could also shuffle things around in that roster again. They could play Mike Brasso more

against same-handed pitching at third, put Anderson back in the outfield. I think Weimer has to perform in order to keep that role, but the way they're using him, even though it's the bottom of the order, it looks like they're giving them a pretty fair shake in the early part of this absence yeah i'm not the biggest joey weimer fan on the planet uh i south freelic is totally my guy i'm actually i'm not surprised because i went to brewer's camp only twice and weimer was i mean also i think freelic might have already been out for the Italian team. But these were in the early practice days.

And I saw Weimer with the major leaguers running way more than I did with Freelick. Yeah, because Freelick was there on that day. But I'm not the biggest on him. And I think he's a little bit more volatile on his swing. He's going to put up big power numbers if he makes contact. But if he struggles, I think they would pull that trigger on South Freelick pretty quick. So any aggressive bids, this isn't one of the prospects i'm personally making aggressive bids on but what was the median 50 that's not horrible no way i'm spending over 10 yeah i was more in that three percent range

just because i think there's so many ways it could be a short-term bumpy ride even if you do like the skills i mean you're a little lower on him i'm curious to see how he fits into their plans given the number of outfielders that they have at their disposal. Plus, Jackson Churio, eventually going to be a big part. Double-A, starting at Double-A this season, too. So, as soon as you get to Double-A, you are technically, anything can happen

once you hit Double-A. Just pointing out to everybody, I still think it's pretty far-fetched, and I think he's an opening day potential next season, but just don't discount any player that's at AA or higher that anything could happen. They are as effusive in their praise of him as everybody who talked about him

throughout last season was. They seem to be all in on the Jackson Churio hype within the organization. So more prospect talk coming up on Tuesday. Project Prospect makes its triumphant return. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. On our way out the door, I should let everyone know you can get a subscription to The Athletic for a dollar a month at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. Hard to pass that up.

It's the best deal that we put out there all year. You can find Welsh on Twitter at isitthewelsh. You can find me at DerekVanRiper. We are back with you on Tuesday.