Rates & Barrels - Early Winter Meetings Update, Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta & Jackson Chourio's Deal

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

Eno, DVR and Britt discuss the reason for the slow start to moves during the Winter Meetings before digging into the surprising five-player swap that sent Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta on Sunday night. Are the Mariners' positioning themselves for a big move as a result of their recent cost-cutting? Plus, Jackson Chourio's record-setting contract for a player with zero MLB service time, a full-time move to second base for Mookie Betts in 2024, and a role change on tap for Mason Miller.  Rundown 1:12 What Is Holding Things Up in Nashville? 9:32 Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta in a Five-Player Swap 19:47 Jackson Chourio's Record-Breaking Deal with the Brewers 25:56 Can the Padres 'Win' the Juan Soto Trade? 33:40 Other Nashville Tidbits Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Give the gift of The Athletic this Holiday Season! One-year gift subscriptions are just $19.99 at theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Tuesday, December 5th. We're in Nashville for the winter meetings. Together. All here together. We've never all been in the same place at the same time, at least to do a show. We've all been here before, same place at the same time, at least to do a show. We've all been here before, but I don't think I knew Britt back then. I was probably looking for a job the first time I came out here.

That didn't work out, actually, even though I'm here. So I guess things worked out in their own way. It's kind of cool to look at you guys in the eye while doing this. I'm always looking at my other eight tabs. Wait, should I not have a mirror? Thank you. And also, usually I haven't brushed my hair. So I have brushed my hair this morning, guys,

because other people are going to see me. We're three for three on showers today. We're dressed much nicely than we usually are as well. So things are going great for us as a group. Now it's been a quiet winter meeting so far. And we spoke on the 3-0 show last week. And you predicted this. You thought this might be a clunker as we move into the middle of day two. That has been the case so

far, Britt. So the question is, what's holding everything up? Well, guys, I think there's two big dominoes that everyone knows about. One is Shohei Otani, who's not even here. His agent, Nez Valeo, also not here. They're conducting these super secret offsite meetings. And, you know, until he signs, it would almost be foolish for AJ Preller to deal Juan Soto. Because whoever loses out on Shohei Otani is going to be under the gun to make a big move. So I think what they're hoping for, and certainly with what has been leaked out of what the Padres are asking of the Yankees, they want that big return. And the best chance to get it is to get a lot of teams bidding against, you know, the Yankees and whoever else and, and to get somebody that's desperate. And, you know, the Padres know, cause they were on the other side of this when the Nationals were trading, you know, the Dodgers

were in it very heavily and the Padres just kept throwing prospects in that deal. And then we'll get to that a little bit later in the show, But I think that is really what's holding everything up right now. And you can say, well, well, what about the pitching? Well, one, Otani pitches. And two, we just haven't seen a whole lot of movement because I think all those guys are still waiting for these dominoes to go down. I really do. I think it's fair because it's such a money outlay. It's going to be, I mean, even if it's, even if we're off and it's,000 and they're worried about the arm and it's more like a $350,000 plus incentives, that's still a lot of money. And if you're going to put that money out there,

then you can't go get Yamamoto two. I mean, maybe the Dodgers could do both, but most teams aren't going to put $800 million out there in one offseason. And that's what we're hearing for Yamamoto, that it's climbing. It's $250 million, whatever it's going to be. So that makes it hard. But the one thing that I want to push back on that a little bit is just that we're only hearing that maybe three or four teams

are in on Otani. We've already heard some teams are out. We've heard the Red Sox are out, supposedly. And we've heard that some teams are out. Like we've heard the Red Sox are out supposedly. And we've heard that some teams are out. So I don't know. It's not sourced. But just from reading the room, reading what the reports have been, it's like Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants still in.

But this is like three or four teams. So you'd think that there'd be some other teams that are, you know, open for business. And yet the rundown is not overflowing with copious signings. You are going to see, I think, that lower tier of pitcher, but I think Scott Borch represents Blake Snell, and I think it behooves some of these guys to wait for these dominoes because, like you said, it's the money factor, and if those guys are waiting, then the guys that are waiting for those guys to

set their market are also waiting, so it's that ripple effect, right? Like I don't think Cleveland cares about these two dominoes, but if their payroll is going to remain flat, which is what they have kind of come out and said because of their struggles with the RSN, well, they're going to need deals. Then you don't get deals right now unless those big fish go off and set the prices for everybody else. And it's also fair that, yes, there might only be three or four teams in it, but those are an important three or four teams that have a lot of money. And if they do lose out, they may want to trade for a Soto or they may want to assign these secondary free agents. So those are market setters. The Giants have money to spend. You need

to wait to get them in the bidding if you're Blake Snell, because, you know, if they miss out on Otani, they might actually be the number one bidder for Blake Snell. So it's fair. It's fair that that is a part of it. But I just wanted to highlight the RSMs, the valleys you just mentioned. The Guardians want to stay flat. And I think that one thing that we've seen that one of the biggest like the like if you want to classify the moves that have happened so far, I think you're right. Some of the middle class, we've had the Wade Miley, Lance Lynn, you know, some of these signings, that's been one class. The other class of moves that we've seen is salary dump. Yeah. I mean, I think that there's like two or three moves that have just been about moving, moving salary.

We've seen the Padres, uh, just send out Scott Barlow, you know, basically to save $6 million, you know, and we've seen the Mariners, you know, spend Jared Kelnick to save Marco Gonzalez's money. And so I wonder, you know, there's this undercurrent in this winter meetings. I think that the TV money is a really unsure thing. We've heard the Texas Rangers say they may not spend a lot of money because their Valley situation is not good. We've seen the Padres take out a loan. Their TV situation is not good. Cleveland. We've got about 10 or 11 teams that are unsure of how the TV money is going to work

out. Arizona, the National League champions, they don't have a Bally's deal anymore. I do wonder if it's – so let's say you were going to get $60 million from your TV deal. Is it zero that you're expecting? Because I kind of don't think it's zero. No, it's less. You're still forecasting something. There has to be some kind of internal projection of what's going to happen in each of these scenarios. If MLB takes it over, you can still expect $20, $30, $40 million out of that $60 million to come through direct subscriptions, I think.

Yes. But I don't know what that number is. And I think not knowing is something that front offices hate. Yes, agreed. It's like COVID times, right? Did they need to save the money or were they just unsure so they held on? Because a lot of these teams

are getting the BAM tech money, right? Revenue sharing money, right? There is still money coming in, but if you're used to pocketing 200 million a year and now all of a sudden you might pocket 100 or 150, you're not sure if that's enough to make these teams clam up and wait. And I think what kind of also we haven't talked about domino-wise

is say some of these teams like the Giants do lose out on those guys. Well, other teams like White Sox who have said we're open for business, they may be hanging on to their players till those big guys go too because Dylan Cease or Shane Bieber we've heard could be available. You can get a lot

more when teams are desperate. So I think it's holding up the trade market. Especially since a lot of those trade players are cheaper. Yes. So I think we're going to see a lot of trades. Teams that are wanting to somehow improve, but also, you know, like if you are Arizona and you don't have that much money and yet you need a reliever, are you going to break the bank for Hayter?

I mean, people talking about, you know, Hayter maybe breaking Edwin Diaz's AAV record for a reliever. Are you going to break the bank for Hayter? I mean, people talking about Hayter maybe breaking Edwin Diaz's AAV record for a reliever. Is Arizona going to do that? It doesn't seem like they would be the team to do it. It seems like it would be a bigger market team. Could they trade for a closer? Sure. I think Seth Lugo is going to be an underrated sign for somebody, too.

A little bit of like a poor man's Josh Hader. I think we may see someone from the second tier. I've seen some reports from John Marossi and John Hammond saying, Eduardo Rodriguez is here in Nashville. He's meeting a lot of teams. He could come off the board, but he's different. He's not Blake Snell. He's not Yamamoto.

He's not quite in that tier. If he's got six or seven teams interested, that might be enough of a bidding war for him to get the deal. There was an interesting tidbit that the Mets said they were not interested or like there was like a, like a, I forget. I would love to give credit to the right person, but I don't know who it is, but I saw a report that the Mets were out on Eduardo Rodriguez. And so that's a little surprising because they need pitching.

And, you know, I think that Eduardo Rodriguez does represents a kind of old school pitcher in a new school market. And that his best assets are control and volume to some extent. And he's not necessarily a guy who's going to have the stuff of a Blake Snell. Him and Blake Snell are opposites. I think there's some makeup concerns too though with a guy like that because I know there were some concerns with Baltimore before they ended up trading him to

Boston and then obviously goes to Detroit. But if you keep in mind in Detroit, he had family issues that sidelined him. Then they tried to trade him and he said, no, I don't want to go there. And the knee's been pretty bad since Baltimore. I wonder if he's a fit everywhere. Some people just don't do well in cities like New York. I wonder if the Mets kind of did their due diligence, did their research and said like, you know what, this isn't probably going to be a fit for us. Yeah, I think there's a lot of the story behind that LA thing that I just don't know. Some of it's just wanting to get something for waving a no trade clause

though too. That's just, if you have it, you you should use it and maybe they just couldn't come to terms quickly enough to get it done but it was weird the way that one leaked out around the trade deadline we should talk about the jared kelnick trade because that was an appetizer for the winter meetings that happened on sunday when many people were traveling to nashville and it leads to a lot of questions are the mariners among the teams setting themselves up for something else it really feels like it at this point because they sent Kelnick along with Marco Gonzalez and Evan White to Atlanta and they got back Cole Phillips and Jackson Coar. Brief time in Atlanta for Jackson Coar, former Royals prospect. But Phillips is this interesting prospect. He had Tommy John coming out of high school. Keith Law had a write-up about him. He's 20 months removed from surgery. We just

haven't really seen him in pro ball yet, so we don't know what to make of him. He was an early draft pick. But value-wise, this was about money. And per Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners have saved $42 million in future commitments with the trades they made between Sunday and the Eugenio Suarez trade to Arizona. So what are they trying to save this money for? I imagine at least some of it's going to a different part of the roster. When you look at that lineup right now, Britt, it's not a playoff caliber lineup yet. It's phenomenal pitching, great starting rotation, great bullpen, but they need some bats. Yeah, and I think that the clubhouse has done a pretty good job of saying we need help, right? And I really hope, guys, that the money is going to go into the payroll.

But that 54% comment by Jerry DiPoto is going to follow him around for a really long time. And what I don't like is that Seattle came out really quickly and said, we're out on Otani. OK, and that's fine if he doesn't end up in Seattle. But to immediately have to say, we can't afford him, we're out, especially when you're slashing and dashing here on the payroll. I think he was, I was at that all-star game. I saw the way the crowd reacted to him. And like at the end of the day, yeah, maybe they don't get him, even if they are one of these big players and want to throw money at them.

But I think just the effort matters to these fans and the way the Mariners have gone about building their team. It feels like they get really close. They're on the 10 yard line and then they just get sacked, and it's a loss of 12, and you're like, how am I supposed to root for this team, right? So I hope that this does go back

into the offense and into kind of supporting what is a good young core. They've got some really good young pitchers. Julio Rodriguez, as we know, when he is right, is this star of the game, but I think you looked at that trade,

and I did certainly, and said like, whoa, you know, what's next? Is there another move? Oftentimes we see a salary dump, you know, kind of predicate another move. And I thought, especially with who DePoto is, that all of a sudden we were going to see them acquire someone and we haven't seen that. So what is that money earmarked for? Is it just to save money? Because it was a little bit of a head scratcher when they made that move last year at the deadline. And we're like, hey, we're in the position to be in contention, but we're still going to cut salary. I thought that was a head scratcher.

So unless they convince me otherwise and until they start to lure these top free agents, because this is the time to get an impact player, right, to get a Juan Soto, which we know they're not going to do, but they should be. Why shouldn't they be in on these kind of guys? I don't have a whole lot of faith that 42 million is going to go towards bats. Yeah, there's something about it that I don't like. You know, what they need now is an outfielder, right? You know, it's not center, but it's in the corners.

They've got Cade Marleau and Dominic Canzone, two really untested lefties. And, you know, you're like immediately in your mind goes to the outfield. And like, you know, they're now about $20 million below where they were last year after all the cutting. And like, could it be Cody Bellinger that, you know, eats up all that money and helps in the outfield? It's a little bit of a weird fit because it's lefty. And also, do they have more holes than just one? And then, so this makes me think that, A, there must be some mandate to cut salary to even do anything.

Because that's what they did. They cut salary. And then, B, they have multiple holes. So it smells to me like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Because they also said they wanted to cut strikeout rate. It's like, I don't know, is it Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman? Or like two lower level names. It doesn't smell to me like we cut this and we're going after big fish. Especially when they say we're out on show.

So it smells like a mandate to cut to even spend anything. And that says they're going to be even with last year. Last year, they're about $20 million under. So if they have $20 million to spend in AAV, what is it going to be? And it doesn't smell like to me like at the very top of the market. And I feel like they should be at the very top of the market. And I feel like they shouldn't be at the very top of the market because they're improving every year. And then,

then you link that back to the 54% comments and just wanting to be just a little bit better than the year before and just get a little bit better at all these different positions. And so that sounds to me like they're going to mix it up and, and get a couple different upgrades that they see are upgrades that aren't going to be mid-level free agents. Or maybe it's more trades. That's the other possibility in Seattle. It's always on the table that Jerry DiPoto could be working more trades, taking a little bit of money back that way,

finding some cost-controlled players that are maybe in the year one or year two of arbitration because that might fit into that AAV number that you were throwing out there. You know who would be great there? Randy Rosarena. Yeah. Pipeline's open. Give him a little swag, too, to go with Julio. He doesn't strike out too much.

Yeah. Pipeline's open. They've dealt before. Yeah. So I like that spot. As far as Jared Kelnick goes, a fresh start for him in Atlanta and a highly regarded prospect, of course,

who was traded from the Mets to the Mariners a few years ago. It hasn't happened for him yet, but we're talking about a guy who's 24 years old. He's more or less being tasked with replacing Eddie Rosario in Atlanta. Jared Kelnick can play at that level. He looks like he's at least a two-war sort of player right out of the box with the strikeouts, with the flaws. That's who he is today. Do we still believe he could get better? Do we believe that going to Atlanta and having less pressure and no longer being the centerpiece of a big franchise-altering trade might actually be a good thing for a guy that when you watch him,

you see the frustration. You see sawdust coming off the handle of the bat after strikeouts sometimes because you could just tell he's wearing he's wearing it kind of in this this very personal sort of way so i'm curious you know you first that kelnick is what you see what you get or is there one more level that you see him unlocking it's just concerning me two things are concerning one is that last year we saw like a better year but it was really april uh and that and we have this sort of you know certain time that you if you time time your career or your year in a certain way, people remember it differently. So people really remember, oh, April, Jared Kelly, he's back, you know. And they don't remember that he slugged like 375 the rest of the way.

And he kind of went back to struggling. Don't remember that. In fact, he didn't really change his ability to make contact on breaking balls. And he still was pretty much only a fastball hitter. So I do think there's some real concerns there. I think the flip side for the Braves is just like we're replacing Eddie Rosario. And we're doing so at a really low cost. He's a $500,000 player for us.

He's a minimum guy for us. And so if you just think about for us and our lineup a, he's a, or a 600,000 minimum guy for us. And so if you just think about for us and our lineup, he can have flaws. He can not be great. If he hits, you know, 18 homers off of fastballs for us and hits two 30 and plates plays good defense and costs us $600,000. That's our lineup doesn't need another huge star. So I think it just was a better fit for them because they didn't need as much out of them. Maybe, maybe he figures something out. It'll be a new hitting coach, new environment, a nicer environment. You know, Atlanta is nicer to hitters. It's like, you know,

Seattle's actually a tough place for a hitter. So I think they're like, if the worst case scenario is he's a guy who plays, okay, D hits us a few homers a year and is super cheap. Then that's something we need. I agree. And I think also you're going to a place that really values coaching, right? Like you look at that staff and they have so many coaches that really coach and develop some of these young guys. So if I'm Jared Kelnick, I'm excited to be on this staff and to be at a fresh place where you're right, DVR.

He's not Acuna. He's not even in the top three stars on the Braves team. You know, there will be so little expected of him. And I think this could be a really good thing for a guy who has some maturity issues. I mean, we all saw the injury to him with the water cooler. And so, you know, some of that stuff, I think maybe he'll be a little bit better within Atlanta because he is not wearing that. Where is the Jared Kelnick that we've been sold, right? I think he really kind of wore that and you could tell. So I think this is good for him. I think this is a good fresh start. I think for Atlanta, they're an organization And I would say that Alex Anthopoulos probably said, you know, this is a guy we can get for next to nothing that really has some upside. Let's not forget the upside that made this guy such a big deal. So if he can even get to a point where he scratches the surface

of what we all thought that ceiling was, what an absolute steal for the Atlanta Braves. And it's just amazing. Think about the Padres for a second. And somebody like Xander Bogart's $280 million. I mean, whatever's left $250 million left on that deal. And people, you know, will say, Oh, well, what, couldn't he just attach some prospects to, you know, trade guys out of town and clean up the salary or whatever? No, no, he can't because he couldn't get rid of Eric Hosmer until Eric Hosmer had $44 million left on his deal. We just saw with this Jared Kelnick deal, the Mariners cut $12.5 million in this deal and it cost them Jared Kelnick

to get rid of $12.5 million. It is really hard to move players that other teams feel are underwater. You know, it's just not, it is really, really hard. And it's only going to get harder maybe with this TV situation. Like this is the new level of what it takes to get rid of even, you know, $12 to $15 million. Yeah, the value being placed on young players is incredible. And look, we've got Jackson Churrio signing a record-shattering deal with the Brewers.

Think about expectations. Expectations just went through the roof for Jackson Churrio in Milwaukee. Brewers fans who have been already excited about him for a couple of years as their top prospect are even more excited because there's a good chance we're going to see him on opening day. It's eight years. It's $82 million. There are two options. There are escalators. It could be $142.5 million when it's all said and done. This shattered the record previously held by Luis Robert for a player with no service time. Robert got six years for $50

million. This is a guy that's going to turn 20 years old in March. I had the press conference here in Nashville on Monday. Really good numbers at AA last year, Britt. How do the brewers manage expectations around Jack Centurio after this when everything just went to the moon as a result of this deal? the Yankees is we live in a world now where 10, 20 years ago, you heard very little about prospects, but now they've become such an important part of currency. And, you know, we have all the top prospect lists and, you know, we are part of this, right? A farm director says to you, this guy's really great. Or GM says, we can't part with this guy. And you start writing it, right? And fans start saying like, we can't get rid of this guy. Right. And so. Right. So I don't think there is a way to now put the toothpaste back in the tube and say, like, let's just let him be like, no, you know, you had a press conference here. You signed him to a record deal. Like, you know, you're the Milwaukee Brewers. You don't often make national headlines. Right. So I don't think you can control it. The only thing you can do is and seems like, I think it was Matt Arnold who said that, this guy has the it factor, right? So you would hope if you're investing the money in this guy, that you believe not only in what he can do on the field, but you believe that he can handle

the expectations that come with this deal and come with being so young and come with the fact that they're going to do everything possible for him to probably make that opening day roster, right? And so you would hope that they believe in his makeup just as much because I don't think you can do a lot here. I mean, outside of Jackson Holiday, this was the best prospect in baseball. And I immediately saw this deal and said to myself, why can't the Orioles do this with the Jackson Holiday or with some of their other young guys?

Obviously, it would take more for guys who are already in the big leagues. But if you're the Milwaukee Brewers, if this guy is even a fraction of what you think he's going to be, this is an absolute steal. You need to be doing this more. This is a page out of Alex Anthopoulos, out of that handbook, right? This is how you do this. And so I really like this move, but I don't think there's a way to control the narrative here and the hysteria here. And him in spring training, him getting there, his first, you know, everything is going to be a big deal with this guy. He's the Otani of Milwaukee, right? Like he's just going to be a very big deal for a team that let's face it,

you know, they lost Craig Council. They took a gut punch this winter. You know, they have a new manager in Pat Murphy. Yes. But like, you know, and now we're hearing about this fire sale, you know, they may trade Corbin Burns. And, you know, this is something that I think they're going to cling to as hope, as, you know, we have a plan for the future. And, you know, it's up to this guy whether he likes it or not. He's going to have to bear a lot of that responsibility. He's going to have to bear a lot of the national limelight. Like, if you're a national writer and you're going to Brewer's Camp, you're probably right about that guy.

Yeah, that's just how it is, right? Yeah. I think it's interesting. Some of these deals haven't worked out. There's been the John Singleton deal, the Evan White. Oh, that was... Evan White was in the deal we just talked about. They were probably clearing more than 15. It was maybe more closer to 20 or something because Evan White... I forgot Evan White was in that deal. But anyway, there have been deals that haven't worked out. And usually the thinking is you do enough of these deals. The ones that do work out play you so handsomely as a team that you just do them with everyone. But they're not doing it with everybody.

And I've talked to Billy Beane and it's like, why don't the A's do this? And he says, we can't afford to be wrong. And so this is a little bit of a chance for the brewers. They're not doing these deals with all their young guys. And they are closer to the, we can't afford to be wrong territory. This will be a bad news for them if it doesn't work out. And here's why I don't, I think that the floor is so high on this and it can't, you can't really compare them to John Singleton, Evan White, and it's pretty, obvious defense and i you know evan white and

john singleton are for our first baseman and they didn't the bat didn't come to fruition and so they didn't you know they didn't make it as as major leaguers in the same way that their teams hoped they would if jack centurio right now is projected to be round league average with the bat next year he's going to play center field if he never does anything better than that he's going to be worth this deal and more he's going to be a surplus value he's going to be a good part of that team and then there's what could come beyond that but i think the worst case scenario is he's kind of maybe he doesn't walk enough or he doesn't maybe the power doesn't all translate or whatever and he's so but he's so young that you would expect him to improve for like five, six

years of this deal. And the baseline is so good where he's like at least a league average bat in center field that this is a chance I would take as an organization for sure. Yeah. 122 games at AA last season, spent a little bit of time at AAA at the end of the year, got over 20 homers, got over 40 steals at that AA level. So there's power, there's speed. It's silly power. It's like taking 99 and going the opposite way with it for homers. That's the kind of raw power that Jackson Churio possesses. Wade Miley came up in the conversation earlier. He's back with the Brewers too.

That's the other, and that happened. But that's a Brewers rotation that I think is going to be particularly messy if a Burns deal happens. I think there's still some questions about Aaron Ashby and his health. Robert Gosser got to the AAA last year. He'll probably give them some big questions you're asking. Yeah, you got to ask Pat Murphy a question yesterday about Aaron Ashby. I asked if he was having a normal offseason, and then I was asked to define normal. So it tells you a lot about where things are at as it stands right now with Ashby. But it's still early. It's early December.

So hopefully by the time spring training rolls around, he'll be on the same schedule as everybody else. But a lot of this conversation today is about trades and moves. And Juan Soto might get moved again before we leave. Probably won't, but he could. and moves and Juan Soto might get moved again before we leave. Probably won't, but he could. And the consensus now is that the Nationals won the first Juan Soto trade, right? And you were saying, Britt, that Mike Rizzo got crushed for that trade at the time. He did. The future forward question I have is, the Padres had Juan Soto and they get to trade him again and they'll get less than they gave up, almost certainly. That's how it usually works when we're talking about a guy

who's entering free agency next winter. Can the Padres still win in the long run, given the interest of the Yankees and other clubs? Can they do enough to undo some of the damage to the system by replenishing with some big league talent in this Juan Soto trade? I don't know if they can break even here, guys. I mean, I think the best you can hope for is that you do get... Listen, they need pitching. We know that. It's not a secret. Can they get big league starting pitching back for Juan Soto? Even if it's

a guy who's maybe a fringy depth guy for your rotation, right? They're not getting a frontline starter. That's not going to happen. But I think you look at this and you're like, how do they not lose that much? Because their system, honestly, isn't as bad as you would think even though it's been pillaged. It's still in that top half, in that top third. He's a great scout. I mean, he's a great scout. They've turned that around pretty quickly from where they were before. It is really A.J. Preller's strength. Yeah, they have top prospects again. Yes.

And so they're not in this situation like what the Nationals were in, where they had to trade Juan Soto because the cupboard was barren. They had nothing, right? They had to make all these blockbuster moves and get rid of Scherzer and Trey Turner and all of these guys.

I think if you're A.J. Preller, this hurts because Juan Soto was the one who got away. You wanted him. And I think in his mind, they wanted to keep him and sign him to an extension. And we know about the upheaval in the Padres and the passing of owner Peter Seidler and how that has changed the way this organization looks at things. So I don't think there's a way they can come out of this and say, well, we won this trade at all. But I think there's a way to not get embarrassed in this trade.

And certainly if the Padres get pitching, they still have a good core group of players. But no team is going to get better losing a Juan Soto, right? No team is going to say, you know what, I like our chances to win the World Series better now that we got rid of that guy, right? That's just not going to happen. And the Yankees can bulk all they want. I saw those proposals. The price is high, yes. But if you ask me, the Yankees would still win that trade because you are getting

Juan Soto in a park where he could absolutely smash Aaron Judge's home run record. I think if you're A.J. Preller, you have to look at this and say, can I get 60, 70 cents back on the dollar? That to me is a win because I'm not going to get my money back. Not even close. I think at this point and where they are and how and where their roster is, where the money is, where, where they need to be, where they're trying to be in terms of winning. It's more about turning this major league piece into multiple major league pieces that fit my team better right now because they're just, you know, they're looking for 700 innings that they had last year.

And it's as much as I was saying, is there a possibility they could keep Soto and get those 700 innings on a cheap? The names I was coming up with, I was thinking about it. There's not 700 innings in those names. I was, I was saying, go get Martine Perez, Alex Wood, and Wade Miley. Maybe you could do all three of those for 15 million, you know, 450 innings. So you'd have to be depending on all these young guys and the minors that are coming up. And yes, they do have some young arms. They have the Miley pitcher of the year and Snelling. You, you teams don't like to depend on those guys. You don't put them in one through five. teams don't like to depend on those guys.

You don't put them in one through five. You put them in seven, eight, and nine. And so in this scenario, if you're buying 450 innings at the very bottom of the market, A, you're getting very bottom of the market. You're not getting the best pitchers. And then B, you're actually depending on 250 innings from the minors, where that's just such a big jump. You know,

we've seen them depend on weathers and that didn't work out. And if you don't have a history like the Dodgers necessarily of being like, Hey, new arm. And it worked out of course, because we do this, you know, then you have to be nervous about depending on those minor league arms. So I think it just makes sense.

And the Yankees on the flip side, they have a bunch of guys who are in their depth chart at five, six, seven, and they're trying to be the Yankees, you know, as opposed to, you know, Oh, Randy Vasquez, Johnny Brito, you know, Michael King, you know, we're going to, we've got a lot of young guys. We're happy about our depth and stuff. They'd rather, you know, I think get the Soto, even if it costs them, Michael King and Clark Schmidt and some, and some minor leaguers on top of that, because, and so there's a fit there. I'm saying, you know, for each of those, there's, it makes sense.

The Yankees want to get their top players better. They want to, they want to be the Yankees again. And the Padres just need to sort of take that one player and spread them out into three or four. It feels inevitable. I know Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece about how these two teams need each other right now. Part of that is the Yankees having big league-ready starters that aren't necessarily elite prospects. They're movable, controllable pitching. It's exactly what the Padres need. And one strength for San Diego, the ballpark, Petco versus Yankee Stadium. If you take

the guys like Brito and Vasquez and some of the guys that are back in, up and down guys on this Yankees team, they'll perform better, at least in those home starts, just by park factors alone. And that might scratch the itch as far as finding as many innings as they actually need. Right. Yeah. No, that makes sense. Plus, you're now saving the $30, $35 million that Soto was going to get. So say you get some back-end guys. Well, now, as you know what I'm saying, now you go out and you buy, you know, not even the bottom tier. You can afford more of that middle tier.

You get one or two other arms there. Maybe get, like, one of the rumors is Jung-Hoo Lee. Go get Jung-Hoo Lee. Yeah. You know, for $10 million a year. You know year and have those arms that are mostly on league minimums.

You still save your $15 to $20 million that maybe there's a mandate to save and you still have an outfielder. Maybe that's the way forward. I have some concerns about Jung-Hoo Lee's power and his defense, but they may not need him to play center.

I mean, Trent Grisham plays a fine center. They're trying to dumb Trent Grisham, though, because he's going to make $4.5 million, right? So I think no matter what. $4.5 million for like an average center fielder. I would keep him. What really kills them, in my opinion, payroll-wise, you know, you look at, we talked about Bogarts and Tatis and Machado,

and those are huge deals, absolutely. But the Jake Cronenworth one, I think, is one that you look at and like, man, this could have been a real easy way. Bogarts and Cronenworth for me. Right. Yeah, I think those are the easy ones or the big, huge ones. But Cronenworth is, what, 80? Yeah.

Something like that. You look at that one and you're like, that was not really the best idea. Especially since he, on your depth chart, was already moving towards first base where he's like a weird fit. Yeah. Yeah. More of a guy that you just want to have at first off the bench.

Plays four or five times a week. Not necessarily a guy that you're penciling in every day. I thought that was a curious decision too. Even at the times they did it, it's looking pretty bad in hindsight. Even though compared to some of the mega deals, it's a lot smaller than overall costs. If money's tight, that's the kind of deal

you don't want because nobody wants to take that on. Correct. Exactly. Like you just lose so much. Like, yeah, it'd be great if you could move Bogarts. It's a huge amount of money, right? Machado, Tatis. But like to me, like, yeah. Imagine if you had that 80 million to spend on a pitcher. Yeah. Yeah. That would be huge for them right now. Some other tidbits here from Nashville. We're seeing reports that Mookie Betts is going to be a full-time second baseman for the Dodgers in 2024. How does that connect to maybe some of their off-season plans? I mean, Mookie played a good bit of second base in 2023. He looked good there. He looked

natural. He played there years ago, but still looked very comfortable in the infield when he played there. I'm going to connect that to two things. One thing is there's another item we've seen that they want to upgrade at shortstop. So if you sort of connect the dots and you realize that Gavin Lux is coming off of a major knee injury and may not have had the arm at shortstop anyway, may not have been super comfortable at shortstop anyway, that it's probably not likely that they're saying we want to upgrade a shortstop by bringing Gavin Lux back,

who's already on our team. So they want to upgrade means we're looking for somebody else on the trade market because there's not really a free agent that fills that need. So is Gavin Lux available in a trade? Because he's Mookie Betts playing second base. Yeah. And they want to upgrade at the position Gavin Lux is going to play. So that means that if I'm another GM,

I'm calling by Gavin Lux. And there are a couple of places you could make a match. You know, Milwaukee is a place you can make a match perhaps depending on what they're trying to do with salary. And, and generally with that roster you know, it seems like the guardians always have shortst roster um you know it seems like uh the guardians

always have short stops you know then they wanted lux before so there's a match there and then just separately just a little item is just that uh mookie bets is amazing and he's so cool and the thing that kyle bode was in here yesterday um and we'll get that audio to you soon but uh kyle bode was here talking about how mookie bets takes grounders at shortstop like every day and he has played shortstop a couple times but to do that every day is like it's it suggests a sort of craziness that the elite guys have you know and he said that kyle asked him about it he's like no i just love to do it i just love taking ground balls it's like he loves to do the thing that is so rote and like people like make fun of and people don't even do as much anymore he loves to do that thing for a position that he doesn't play yeah yeah so he's ready for this i think imagine being so

talented that like they can just move you to another position and you hold your own yeah exactly level yeah which like is already we're talking about the top one percent right i think it just shows you what a ridiculous athlete mookie betts is but you know with that dedication with the yes with the sort of secondary stuff he's a leader a character guy i mean honestly and i know this horse has been beaten many times, but the Red Sox letting a guy like that go, not just with what he does on the field, but with everything off the field, the leadership that he brings. It's really important who you give your most money to because that person becomes the leader. Everyone, like money is a silly thing. You don't want to think about it all the time,

but when you're in a clubhouse, everybody in that clubhouse knows who makes the most money. Yeah. That immediately becomes, he broadcasts the values that the players have and what he does kind of goes. I mean, the worst clubhouses I've ever been in were ones where the most highly paid person was one that either didn't talk to media or didn't like the machines or didn't, you know, like the coaches, didn't want to work, was, you know, seen at 3 a.m. before a start, you know, out in the town. I'm not talking about any one specific pitcher. Sounds like you are.

Yeah. Some people will be able to contend with those dots. I totally agree with you. And I just think that, yeah, I've never heard anybody in any corner of the game say anything bad about Wookiee Betts, which is a rare thing in and of itself. Right? Never. But I think it also points to a general thing that we're lacking

in the winter meetings right now is activity. And I think the Dodgers are, if I had to guess, I would say the Dodgers may be the most active team in this offseason overall. We're hearing about them being really close on Yamamoto, like being one of the best teams on Yamamoto. We've said that from the beginning that they've got to be the number one team for Shohei Otani. And now they're talking about upgrading at shortstop. These are major moves that they're making. They took kind of last year off a little bit

in terms of making these big splashes. So I could see this being a huge offseason for the Dodgers. Yeah, I agree with that. So one of my favorite things in Nashville is there are manager media sessions that are 20, 30 minutes each. And they're actually happening near where we're recording. Who do we got over here?

It's Bob Melvin. There's a big crowd for Bob Melvin. I think it's fun because as someone who spent a long time having to aggregate news, this was one of those times where we had a bunch of player notes we could write back in my fantasy days. It was always interesting to see if you could separate the real news from the things that the manager said

simply because somebody asked them a question and they had to respond and someone else put it into an article. I'm curious about this one. There's a report going around that the Mets are going to stick with internal options at third base. So that's some combination perhaps of Brett Beatty, Ronnie Mauricio, maybe Mark Vientos. I don't think Mark Vientos is going to play a ton of third base. I think it's between Beatty and Mauricio at this point. They got to find a position for Vientos long-term.

So you've done this for a long time. Where does that fall on the BS meter? Do you actually believe that? No, it's pretty high because what's the flip side is, are they going to say, yeah, you know what? Guys, we have our trash. We got to upgrade, right? Like even if you don't say they're trash, you're basically saying we need to upgrade this position.

I mean, there are nicer ways to hint at it, but I don't believe anything when teams say we're set here. We're not looking here. Teams are always looking to upgrade. They're always, these front offices in particular, guys, if they think they can get one or two percent better, they're in, right? They're trying to get to that 54 percent like Jerry DiPorto told us so you know they're always tweaking that dial just a little bit so i don't believe that especially with the mets especially a market where you know this was the tampa bay rays maybe but you know i think you know people are rest are restless mets fans are restless they want to know now that they finally have sterns after three years of

waiting what's this guy gonna do and you know're not going to go out and do what they did last winter. We know that they're trying to build this organization from the ground up, but no one's going to be happy. They're not going to go out there and try to put together a 500 team either. They're trying to get to the playoffs. They're trying to be the next Dodgers. So I don't see a world where they're not at least exploring ways to upgrade. I mean, we're pawns in an information battle. And it could just be as easy that they're in negotiations with Matt Chapman and they don't want the number to get any bigger. And so they send everybody out and say, hey, our company line right now is,

you know, we're doing this internally because we don't want that. Like the number they're asking for in the Matt Chapman camp is not one we like. But if we can move that number by saying we're out, then maybe we'll get back in. Totally. That is it. Just expose the game right then and there. It's when you know it.

That's what sourcing is doing. That's what all these rumors are doing. People are trying to move the market. The agents on one side are trying to create markets, mystery teams. Matt Chapman has a half a dozen teams interested in him. Jordan, we've got one of the newest updates while we're here is Jordan Hicks, Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, and Angels, which I think there should be more names on that list. But those are maybe the highest value teams that have the, maybe

people think they have more money. So it's like, ah, Hicks is going to, yeah, you've got to give us a little more money. Yeah, let's drive up the price. Yeah, it's such an interesting dichotomy of the information flow, especially right now, especially surrounding Otani, who, I don't know if you guys saw this, but so

yesterday a reporter asked Farhan Zaidi a question that he goes, too specific, sorry. Like, we are in such a total, like, no one has any clue what's going on with Otani. We're not even allowed to know the name of his dog. We are in a world, yes, we are in a world. We don't know the name of Shohei's dog?

We're not allowed to know that. Where he goes to Dunedin and visits their spring complex, and Arkin Rosendahl has the story, and it's amazing that this is a story. That's how little we know about this free agent process. I don't know. Have you guys? I can't remember.

He didn't even speak after he won the MVP. I know. I cannot remember. It's my 15th year in baseball. I've never seen a free agent process this shrouded in secrecy. Have you guys ever? Well, maybe the first Shohei Otani. It wasn't this bad because I don't think people weren't sure he was this good.

People were wary. Would it translate? People weren't sure he was this good. Right. People were wary. Would it translate? Right. People weren't sure. Could he pitch and hit here? Right. But we, the reason why I think one of the reasons we know about the Blue Jays one is that Ross Atkins had to zoom into his manager.

They made it worse. Yeah. Totally made it worse. They probably should have just canceled that one. Couldn't they say he was sick? Yeah. That was the giveaway. Right.

I mean, this is our ATM. He's going to talk to you guys for a little bit. If you say Ross Atkins has the flu or whatever, you know, you, I mean, we, why is this here? He's going to talk to you guys for a little bit. If you say Ross Atkins has the flu or whatever, you know, I mean, we're in a bubble here. You believe it. But him being at some undisclosed Zoom. It's almost one of those lies, too,

that afterwards people would be like, well, fair. You lied to me, but fair. I know why. But does that count against Toronto? Because that leaked out? Right. Right? I don't know.

That's what supposedly the deal was early on. If he gets an offer and he likes it the best and that's where he wants to go and it happens to leak out, he's going to change teams. He's so methodical and researched. I don't see that happening. Yeah. Well, I hope it happens soon because we're

minor league signings. We're reading about minor league signings. I don't want to... Literally, the number one thing is a minor league signings. We're reading about minor league signings. I don't, I don't want to, this literally the number one thing is a minor league signing. Yeah. And I think there's actually three minor league signings, four, four minor league signings in the top 10 things happening right now.

It's because everybody's here and they just, they just want to write stuff and talk about stuff. It is true. I got one more and then we'll go Mason Miller. It sounds like is going to work in a bullpen role. That came out of a David Forst media session on Monday. That one seems more realistic to me. I mean, he's topped out at like 15 innings on the season

in the last two or three. But does having him throw max effort for 50-plus games a year, we've talked about this before, does that necessarily keep him healthier? No. It's just trying to figure out how many ways can we utilize him? Maybe. Number of pitches is definitely a big part of fatigue. You're

literally asking him to throw 12 competitive pitches sometimes. You can get through an inning in 12 pitches, 14 pitches. That's a lot different than asking him to throw 70 or 80 even. I think there are other pitchers that we've seen in the

past that just couldn't stay healthy as starters that made it through as relievers. We are scraping the barrel, guys. It might be a closer. He's got good stuff. He does, but we are here in Nashville. We're supposed to be talking about the hot stove. Have you had any good Nashville things?

Have you had a moon pie? No. Have you had a goo goo? We had some goo goos in the hotel. I've had hot chicken before and I had some again. I had the mild and I was surprised that even the mild is killing.

Even the mild got you? Yeah. Brandon Funston was crying a little bit last night. Oh, from the pizza. I was off the mild chicken on the pizza. Hot chicken pizza. I like hot chicken branching out into other foods. I think that's a very innovative thing.

Glad we're seeing that here around town. I'm going to look for some dry rub, I think. I want some dry rub. All right. We're going to go so Eno can find some dry rub. You can find Britt on Twitter at Britt underscore Drool. You can find Eno at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek and Rhyper.

That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you tomorrow. Thanks for listening. Thank you.