Rates & Barrels - Eno's Optimism, Britt's Realism & Non-Playoff Teams of 2021 Destined to Reach the 2022 Postseason

Episode Date: January 20, 2022

Eno, Britt and DVR discuss the current state of the MLB lockout, Rachel Balkovec’s move into the manager position for the Yankees’ Low-A Tampa affiliate, changes at Camden Yards, and the non-playoff teams of 2021 that they see as playoff teams in 2022.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Thursday, January 20th. Derek Van Ryper, you know, Saris Brichiroli here with you. Lots to get to today, even though we are still waiting further progress in the ongoing negotiations between Major League Baseball and the Players Association. Some changes at Camden Yards. So we'll talk about how that might impact hitters and pitchers in that park moving forward. Some big news that broke last week when we had our episode get scrapped for a week rachel belkovic named low a manager that's the tampa bay yankees affiliate which is just an awesome uh step forward again in the game that hopefully we see a lot more of that on the horizon we'll talk about the implications there and i got a few questions that we'll get to at some point but

the main topic we're gonna get to in about 15 minutes or so, looking at teams that did not make the playoffs in 2021 and making predictions for which of those teams will actually make the playoffs in 2022. So lots to get to on this episode. On the Tuesday episode, Britt, Eno expressed some optimism about the progress that could be made with both sides back at the table. And I'm just curious to take your temperature on this matter. Where do you feel like we're at in the wandering through the offseason desert as this lockout goes on? I don't think we've moved much. I talked to a player who was very heavily involved yesterday for a little while, and it does seem like they're preparing an offer.

It could be as early as Friday that the union sends back that offer. It could leak into next week. He wasn't exactly sure. But it seems like if they get the owner's answer to what the union proposes, the owner's answer to what the union proposes, and it is, again, subpar, and it, again, doesn't address many of the core issues the union is fighting for, it's going to be a really long spring. Because how can you keep negotiating, as this guy put it, with people who simply are unwilling to negotiate? You just can't. So I think this next round is really going to show us here if the owners don't come back with something.

And it doesn't seem like the owners really are feeling any kind of crunch as we get closer to the time when guys would have to get ready to go down to spring training. Their playbook is really to do nothing, continue to wait this out, and hope that the players start to fold. I'm not as optimistic as Eno, I guess, just based on that conversation. I don't see why the owners all of a sudden in mid-January would act like the seat is hot and they have to get something done because they're playing this whole way through. And I understand it from a negotiating tactic has been to delay, delay, delay. from a negotiating tactic has been to delay, delay, delay. Yeah, I think that my optimism comes mostly from the fact that I think that some of the weirder proposals are starting to fall away.

We're starting to kind of see where the battlegrounds are and what the discussions are. Like, I think that for the most part, you know, just cutting of a year of free agency on the player's part. I mean, I understand, uh, you know, cutting a year of team control. I understand that's, that's an awesome, uh, goal. Uh, but like, we don't, we don't hear about it as much. Um, so I kind of feel like that's gone on the owner's side, the stuff where they were like, we'll pay you through war or like, you know, um, you know, we'll replace arbitration with this other terrible thing. Um, you know, you know, we'll replace arbitration with this other terrible

thing. You know, those things are starting to go away. And if you kind of read between the lines on the last thing, it seems like, you know, as much as I don't think DH is worth that much to the players, it seems like, you know, DH, NLDH, and expanded playoffs have been in every single owner's proposal. And the, the quid pro quo on the player's side is make the minimum salary range. And I was just looking at this minimums. What are the two, the Minimum salary range. Taming. The graph. No, the CBT. Make the minimum salary range and the CBT higher. Those are the two ways that they see they can get more money being spent on free agents and get more money to younger players. And so as that, you know, right now the owner said $600 to $700 for the minimum salary and $214 for CBT.

And the players said $245 for the CBT and $675 to $775 from the minimum salary. Like, am I crazy? Like, I feel like we're not that far apart. You know what I mean? I'm not suggesting this let's do it in the middle like maybe the players need it on their side but i'm just saying like we seem to be talking the same language now uh it seems like we might get something like a minimum salary at 750 uh a cbt at 225 the the one thing that the players don't want are these like more like the owners like we need more stringent penalties for first time goer overs or whatever CBT guys. And I don't think the players want that.

So but I think that these are like we're starting to get closer to details as opposed to like, hey, let's get rid of let's you know, let, everyone's a free agent after year two or like, you know what I mean? Like we're not, we're not talking like the weirdo stuff anymore. Like it seems like things are sort of consolidating to like, okay, we're arguing about the CBT and the minimum salary. Uh, and the things we're giving you are, uh, are this and this. You know, you're the most optimistic person I think I've heard in the whole sport. Um, because I, I couldn't disagree more with you on this. Um, the, the owners haven't even really submitted a proposal. Yeah, that's true. So how would, I mean, I don't feel good about spring training starting on time. It sounds like you do. Um, no, no, no, I don't necessarily know.

I feel good about a deal being made and like maybe not missing much uh season okay gotcha so you think i think that like february one was like you know has been circled as a date like oh my god like we're not going to make february one so you know i think there's you know but i think february one has made them speak the same language. Like, I think that we're starting to see negotiation. It's really hard to see from the outside because we don't like the tenor. From what I've heard, you know, the tenor in the room is not very good. The relationship is kind of burnt.

But also, we're all just like sort of relying on leaks and here and there and that. We don't get to see everything. And yes, I do think it's a big deal that the owners haven't given an official proposal. But at the same time, maybe that doesn't matter at this point because they're still just yammering about little things and this and that. Maybe we'll get more official proposals in the future. I don't know. It seems at least they're speaking the same language. Really?

We're not talking about, we're not talking about war. We're not talking about war anymore. Those are just crazy early ideas. That's what I'm saying. Those are the dumb ideas. The dumb ideas are out. And now the like brass taxes are being talked about.

We've moved from on the dial. We were at not trying at all. That's what I'm saying. Like the complete nonsense, like not solutions that are not even solutions. They're just things that's filling up space. We've gone from that to this is these are the elements of what a deal will eventually look like. What that means for the timetable. I think you're both making good points i think

what it comes down to is something that brit brought to my attention probably a month or so ago now maybe even a little longer is the player's ability to just keep waiting and waiting and waiting because in the past the owners have been able i think to benefit from just having extra pressure right like they've they've had players that simply couldn't wait it out as long or didn't wait out as long for a variety of different reasons i think things could be different the war chest that brit talked about the money that's been put aside for this purpose that's really intriguing to me the logistics of how that works very intriguing also i'm still very curious to know like how long would that money last how when would they actually turn to it like how how detailed are they in their

planning with something like that in ken rosenthal's column there was like in caps like this will not be anywhere close to your paycheck right like it's subsistence type stuff like whoever needs help making the rent kind of deal but you know i know, I like what Britt reported. Was it IBAT or something? What was the facility? Yeah, DBAT. DBAT, that's it. That seems that's that's helpful to me. Yeah. and I think that something that's a little bit different now than in the past is did you see the 63% or 64% favor the player side?

So I think with the majority of fandoms sort of favoring the player side and there being some structure I think that as we get closer to losing season I think that puts pressure a little bit more on the owners in fact yeah i know the players have less money but i think you're right yeah it is it's still 60 60 only 63 percent are on the player side like i know which of these guys is more like you in your life? Yeah. Like realistically, yes. None of those people are really like you, but think real carefully about which side is more like you.

Only 63%. It's crazy. So you're still going to get the decent number of people. A third of people probably just have no appetite for this entire conversation because they're like, well, these are the problems of people wealthier than me. So I don't care. I ran into that a little bit on Twitter last night. It comes up every time.

There's like this idolization of the owners. That's the one where I really don't get. There was this whole bit I got. I stepped into some poo last night on Twitter. And it was all this stuff about the owners take risks. I'm like, do you know? No team has ever been sold for a loss.

Nobody bought a baseball team and then sold it and lost money on the whole idea. It's not a risk to buy a baseball team. In fact, you have three, four, five ownership groups begging to buy any new team when they get it. Baseball gets to sort through ownership groups and say, nah, nah, nah. Okay, maybe this guy. You know? They get to put, they put conditions on Steve Cohen buying it. They told him he had to hire people.

Come on. Yeah. Come on. Yeah. Come on. And I think what makes baseball so intriguing over other teams is the revenue sharing if you're a smaller market team doesn't happen as much as it does in baseball. Also, they have the antitrust exemption, which no other pro team has.

Owning a baseball team in particular is incredibly it's the safest it's almost the safest investment there is it's incredibly lucrative and i want to get back to so we talked about the war chest so players don't normally get paid in spring training so i think until this leaks into the season most guys would probably be okay yes they have to pay to live in their off-season home for another month or two versus the team paying for them in spring training. But they've set up for that. They've set up for that. They've always known that they weren't going to get a paycheck until April 1.

Correct. So I think once the season is in jeopardy, you're really going to see kind of that war chest be put to the test. But the owners will be losing money because they usually get free labor in spring training where they actually get to sell tickets on all these guys that are not getting paid. Exactly. So spring training to some extent. And also they have great relationships with these cities in Florida and Arizona who have built these stadiums for them. The mayor's calling. The mayor's calling.

Lose a lot of revenue here this year. I do think, you know, once we get into it, if the players hold firm, you're going to see the owners actually take this seriously. Right now, I feel like they're still not taking things seriously. But again, that could change with the players next proposal. I think it's going to be important if they get turned off again. We might see both sides go dark for another week or two because there's just no point in negotiating with a group that is clearly not interested in negotiating. Yeah. So if I had to kind of place where I am on the Eno kind of optimistic scale and the Brit pretty pessimistic scale, I'm more like middle with one foot closer to brit right now because i just think it's gonna take it's gonna take some time and it needs to take some time it's it's for i'm not i'm

not necessarily arguing it's gonna happen super soon but well yeah maybe i'm just being the the eternal optimist hey that's all right we need it on this pod. Yeah, we absolutely do. And look, it's not all bad. Good news last week. Rachel Balkovic named the manager for the Loe affiliate of the Yankees. She was a hitting coordinator for the previous two seasons. First female to manage a professional team. A step forward.

We talked about this when Kim Ang became general manager of the Marlins, and we've seen it in other organizations in various roles, women having a more prominent role in the game. It's only a good thing. It is the beginning of hopefully a much, much larger sea of change. And I think this is interesting in some ways too, because I,

I feel like organizations are starting to pull back and wonder like, hey, was the old way in which we found managers at the big league level actually as effective or more effective than just taking someone with no managerial experience and plunking them into a big league seat? So I'm wondering if there's actually a better path to a big league dugout by actually doing the job in the minors at various levels than there was even just a few years ago. Because Aaron Boone, right? I mean, sure, family managerial experience. That doesn't count for him. He hasn't done the job.

Went from the booth to the dugout. I think teams are starting to question that a little bit more and looking at different ways to possibly develop people who are going to be a part of their big league staffs and even be their big league managers. Yeah, I just think the way this has changed now, a lot of people that are coaches and managers, like you said, never played. So why would we keep women out when it used to be former players everywhere? And so you kind of were like, okay, well, you never played. Well, you can't even use that excuse anymore because a lot of these organizations have people that are very smart and never played or never played at any pro level anyway. So I think she's the 11th woman now this year that will have an on-field coaching position, which is super great.

year that we'll have an on-field um coaching position which is super great my um i don't want to call it concern i think this is great news i've known rachel for about a decade uh she's really into strength and conditioning she was a strength trainer with houston um so we always kind of cross paths she wants to be in the front office and i am wondering why somebody with 10 years of experience who is a phd uh was unable to get a job in a team's front office. Why she had to, she never really wanted to manage. And she was pretty open about that in her press conference that she wants to be a GM. That's her ideal goal. And the Yankees approached her with this and said, you know, we want you to manage. And, you know, I think it's great and all for the game. It's great for diversity. But to me me the little underbelly of this is like why is someone like rachel not in a front office yet um i wonder if i showed you a resume of hers

without her name on it you know many front offices would already have her as an assistant gm why why um if she wants to be a gm someday has she had so much difficulty breaking into that front office didn't she say that she got more nibbles when she put her name as Ray on it? Correct. That's, I mean, that's what I mean. You have, again, you have someone who's worked in a strength and conditioning capacity of someone who has, who speaks Spanish, who has a PhD who has 10 years of experience in baseball, who can't get their foot in the door in the front office.

So they accept this manager job. Yeah, that's unfortunate. Right. Like, it's a happy thing. It's a great thing. You know, the first female manager in the minor leagues, I think that's wonderful. But I did hear from a lot of women kind of expressing that sentiment of,

why wasn't she in a front office somewhere? Why is she an AGM or a VP of something? It's the same question, I think, if you looked at Kim Eng's resume before the Marlins finally made her a GM. There were plenty of times where she interviewed to be a GM and had the best resume and didn't get the job. It's the same kind of thing.

The root problem is still in place, even though we're seeing slow changes at various spots. You're exactly right, Britt. I didn't even realize. Somehow I thought that on-field instruction was also part of what she wanted to do too and it's like there's plenty of people in front offices who have zero on-field experience because of their other experience and she has that other experience puzzling well she uh she said some

interesting things uh i think she's she's gonna end up um she's she's gonna show show that she's got some skills there that can also be used in a front office. I mean, one thing that really stood out for me in her introductory press conference is how she was talking about getting to know all the players and letting people in her staff do what they do best. So letting, you know, letting the hitting coaches, letting the subject matter experts, letting the sort of the staff come together and do their jobs and everyone's kind of, and that her role was to kind of get to know all the players and to make them feel comfortable. And to me, that's, you've heard this on the show a million times, like, that's what I think a manager does. I think a manager is a manager of people and makes people feel comfortable. So maybe I just heard what I was listening for.

But I thought at least she's coming into this with an interesting perspective. And it's not one I've necessarily heard every manager sort of say to begin their careers. And then, you know, there is a bit of a back and forth of the Red Sox. I think the Red Sox have two or three women in the minor leagues. They're not necessarily like, you know, managers like Rachel, but I like this. I like, I feel like there's almost like an arms race situation here. And I point to research in the corporate environment that diversity is not necessarily always for diversity's sake. Diversity has been proven. Diversity in leadership has been proven to have better outcomes for corporations. And so hopefully this is a bit of an arms race to consider that aspect of, you know, your team as a corporation and to have diverse backgrounds. It was something we touched on in the AGM piece that, you know, hopefully the AGM title allows for doesn't isn't isn't like a glass ceiling that's keeping people down and you know hiring your friends maybe that can be an opportunity uh to get more diverse leadership in uh maybe these

manager roles in the minor leagues are an opportunity um you know everything has to build over time um and so i think this is it's still a positive yes so there is that kind of that cloud over it uh is like why why isn't she higher up the food chain yet but you know at least uh things like seem to be moving slightly in the right direction yeah i get the sense that this will be a springboard to something bigger and better and hopefully much more in line with those long-term goals that uh that she was referring to let's get to some other changes around the league changes to camden yards brit you've seen a ton of baseball at camden yards

it's been a extreme hitters park for a long time some of the analytics people in the front office were saying it's probably the most extreme homer environment at least for right-handed hitters in the big leagues the numbers bear that out you know we've known that for a long time from a fantasy perspective uh just thinking about that park being more neutral it seems like it would give them more of a lift in the future than it would immediately because as we've talked about in this show they're not going anywhere in 2022 but if you were a free agent pitcher and considering similar offers and baltimore versus a more neutral environment was something you had to think about, well, especially on a short-term deal, Baltimore in the past was probably kind of a non-starter for someone in that position. So I'm just curious what you think about these changes. Good idea?

Long overdue? Where do you sit on these? Yeah, I think it's a great idea. It gives them a chance to compete in the future because they were never going to be able to get top tier starting pitching free agents to go there. The last really good starting pitcher they had, and this also happened from within too, they would develop guys and guys would get absolutely hammered at home. And you're really hurting the development of young pitching. And they haven't really had an actual like bona fide ace since Mike Mussina. So you're really going back quite a ways when you look at that. So I've seen

a lot of cheap balls fly out of Camden Yards. And I think this helps them much more than it hurts them. Because if they're going to compete in the American League East, we've talked about this before, it has to come from within, It has to come from what they had. It has to come from this long rebuild. Yes. They can pluck a free agent from here or there. But to be able to have sustained success, you have to pitch, you have to pitch and they're not able to, you're not able to pitch well given the dimensions of that park.

So I think this really is a smart move by the front office. You know, they did all the numbers out. They looked at the advantages, the disadvantages to doing something like this. And I think it's going to open up a bigger channel for them. I mean, it's crazy. You guys,

you look at numbers of like Wade Miley when he was in Baltimore. And then the following year, he had like a Renaissance year. This happened all the time. These guys would look like they're over. Yes yes exactly bundy it would just be like god this guy's terrible and they ran this guy up the flagpole then he'd be somewhere else and he'd be great now part of it is development baltimore still behind i think you know you pointed that out uh but part of it is just every ball in the air it seemed like that was going out to left field was out.

And that's really a tough thing to develop a young pitcher in the American League East that's afraid to give up any kind of contact in the air to that direction at all. It changes the way you pitch. It changes your confidence. And it forced guys like Gossman to continue to tinker with stuff like mid-start. Gossman would wake up and tell his postgame he changed his delivery. I mean, that is not a good thing. Like mid-start, Gossman would wake up and tell us postgame he changed his delivery. I mean, that is not a good thing. Like that's just crazy that these guys are literally thinking about how do I fix this today?

Let's do this in a big league start. This happened all the time. And, you know, it was jarring. Jake Arrieta, another guy, could have put it together in Baltimore as a Cy Young season in Chicago. So I think that this long-term really helps Baltimore. Yeah, it's funny when you run numbers. Andrew Perpetua ran some numbers, and we're going to do a piece on what this would look like in brass taxes.

What would John Means' ERA have been last year, that sort of deal, and how this would have affected the team, and if it would have affected their hitters more than their pitchers. Um, but the, the, the way that things work in the aggregate are really interesting. So, um, perpetuous says like, uh, okay, uh, this will, this will reduce, uh, homers to that area of the field by 40%. You're like, wow, that's a lot. Well, okay. So it's, it's only, you know, 20% of the whole, right? It's not even the whole outfield. So that gets reduced. It ends up being about 10% of the whole. So you, you'd reduce homers 10%. And it ends up being about 40 homers a year. And that includes home and away. So you're going to take 20 homers away from your visitors as a pitcher. And yet it is a big deal. And it's like perspective changes everything, right? Like 20 homers in the life of a park over the course of

years is not that much, but it also could be. I mean, if you look at John means his homers last year, uh, that he allowed, he would like lose like six or seven. And for him, that's, that's huge. Like take six or seven homers off John means his line. And, you know, he had something like a, like a two 90 ERA last year, but you do that. So, like a two 90 ERA last year, but you do that. So, um, you know,

it's, uh, it, it, I, I, I'm fascinated to see like how this actually impacts each of the players. Um, you know,

I wouldn't be surprised if Trey Mancini actually doesn't lose that many homers. He's got kind of a line drive ground ball, you know, heavy approach. He's kind of a, a guy that hits for a good average. Uh,

you know, is he going to hit maybe 23 homers instead of 25? Maybe they looked at their hitters and say, we're not going to hit maybe 23 homers instead of 25 maybe they looked at their hitters and say we're not going to hurt our hitters that much and we'll help our pitchers a lot so maybe it actually will help their team be more competitive on paper as well as the stuff that brit's talking about which i totally agree with like yeah in terms of developing a pitcher uh in terms of signing a pitcher as you were were saying, DVR, like nobody. Yeah. I was talking to, um,

Brandon McCarthy once just about just random stuff. And then he just started talking about how much he hated course field. It did. Like I, I had said nothing about course field, you know, it's like that meme, you know,

nobody, nobody ran McCarthy course field sucks. And so, I feel like Baltimore is probably the same way, where it's like, I will take less money to go somewhere other than Baltimore and Coors Field. And you just don't want that, because

as a general manager, as a person running a team, you want to catch values wherever they come. You don't want to cut yourself off anywhere. This is also part of a larger trend you'll see of the modernization of ballparks so uh san francisco the stated goal was to get the bullpens off the field because that was a health hazard and you know i believe them but also hey look we're a little bit less crazy pitcher park than we used to be you remember san san diego changed the walls to become less pitcher friendly

seattle changed the walls to become less pitcher friendly new york changed the walls to become less pitcher friendly so you know everybody's trying to kind of at least be neutral enough that nobody thinks i'm you know I'm not signing there. Look at what St. Louis has had to do to get hitters. They've had to do big package trade packages to get hitters into their ballpark. I think if I was a free agent hitter, I might not necessarily be itching to hit in St. Louis. I'm sorry. The health hazard should really be reserved for oakland and tampa

bay those bullpens are serious health hazards well are they the last two that have them on the field now like literally on the side yeah like that's what that's what say san francisco yeah yeah somebody somebody uh got a concussion it was pretty bad i forget who it was yeah darren roof somebody was trying to catch a ball in san francisco got a concussion and everyone's like we need to get rid of these yeah but they are health hazards right if you're an outfielder running and all of a sudden there's a mound however the foul territory and buck used to talk about this all the time the amount of foul territory they have versus other parks is a huge advantage because you can make outs in foul territory versus a ball that's also

in the third row right there's a lot of advantages to having that in foul territory versus a ball that's also in the third row. There's a lot of advantages to having that more foul territory, which I thought was fascinating. I don't know who has the most foul territory, but I'd be curious. Do they? But I'd be curious when you look at how many outs. Tampa's second, I think. Tampa's right there. How many foul ball outs they have versus anybody else. Oh, so many more.

I looked into this one. One thing I couldn't find was a home field advantage in those outs. So people made outs equally. However, I think you can probably still have a team building advantage, right? Where you're like, Oh, we're, our pitchers are just going to do better because they're going to get a lot more foul outs. So, you know, we should invest in hitting, or we should, we should know that our pitchers are going to do well i don't know it seems like oakland and tampa both kind of take for granted that there'll be fewer runs scored in their in their in their in their park and the foul ground is part

of that and they've found ways to build around that i think yeah totally guys would fight like on the orioles about who was pitching in in Tampa because guys just love pitching there. Where do you run pitch? Cammy Yards? Tampa? Come on, your ERA is a big deal. When Oakland trades for somebody like Cole Irvin, Cole Irvin doesn't have great stuff. He does have five pitches. He has some good command.

If you put Cole Irvin in Colorado, you put Cole Irvin on the Yankees, I think it would not go well. But you put Cole Irvin in Oakland, put Cole Irvin in the, on the Yankees. Uh, I think it would not go well. Uh, but you put Cole Irvin in Oakland, put Cole Irvin in Tampa, you know, uh, you, you've got a pitcher that can, that can be your number four, number five, and they didn't pay that much, uh, to get them in a trade. So that's my kind of, uh, example of, of how Oakland has taken it to their advantage, but it doesn't show up in outs.

I was like, they have Josh Donaldson and Matt Olsen. I was like, they have Josh Donaldson. Don't they have an advantage in home field foul outs? They didn't necessarily. That's pretty strange. They didn't have an advantage from that. The changes in Camden Yards, about 26 feet is the difference

where they're going to have the left field wall. So, you know, some of those home runs will turn into long outs. Some of those will be doubles off the wall, maybe a triple or two. So it's not all going to be just in favor of the pitcher, but definitely better than the home runs that have been a problem, especially for lefties.

And maybe one more reason to like Grayson Rodriguez when the time comes for him to be a big league starter as well. Damn. You're going to make me regret that pick every episode for the rest of my life. I took Mike Soroka over Grayson Rodriguez. He's going to remind me of that all year. But if I get it right,

I'm going to remind you of it. You'll forget. I will forget. Yeah, you'll forget. I will forget. Let's move on to some teams that might have improved fortunes in 2022. The goal here, we're looking for teams that did not make the playoffs last season who will make the playoffs this season. I'm going to start with a trivia question for you

because I know you both love trivia questions. The good news is you can play together. You're working together. It's you two versus me and what i'm looking for by wins above replacement i want the five highest non-playoff teams at this point so you know dodgers and yankees are one and two they were obviously playoff teams There's five non-playoff teams within and ended up being the league's top 12 by projection as of right now with all the moves that have happened to this point. It's got to be the Mets as one.

They're number three. Yep. They were the highest of the non-playoff teams a year ago. What do you think about the Blue Jays? I have to recuse myself. He's already looked at it. You know, what do you think about the blue jays? I have to recuse myself. He's already looked at it. You looked this up? No, I didn't.

I didn't know exactly what the trivia question would be. He told me to, my preparation for the segment of who is a contender that wasn't is to look at the depth charts and look at the war projections. So I just happened to be looking right at it when he just said it.

And I was like, uh, I could just read out what I'm looking at right now, but you were right. And that was a great one. And there you go. The blue Jays. Another one.

Yeah. Five. I think they're four and five in terms of projected for the postseason. Yep. They're they're up there. So you get two out of the first five. You're two for two so far. Three more to go.

I'm kind of leaning toward the Padres because they're a very talented team. Nailed it. Yep, they're in there too. I'm no longer looking, so my guess is Phillies? Yes, Phillies are the fourth. Oh, I would not have picked the Phillies.

Good one. Yeah, I knew there was no way you'd pick the Phillies. Like, it's just... What? I don't hate the Phillies. I know, but it's... You don't hate them, but I don't think you respect them. What have they done lately to earn my respect?

That's what I'm saying. It's just like. You're fair, fair, fair. You know what? That would be great on a t-shirt. Like I don't hate your team. I just don't respect them. That's one of our best t-shirt ideas yet.

That one, that's all you, Britt. You should definitely make those. Can we make it in each team's color combination too? That'd be amazing. So you could. each team's color combination too. That would be amazing. Someone like me could go to a Phillies game and wear their colors and blend in randomly and it actually is just kind of like

I don't hate your team, but I don't respect them. How many have we got left? One team left. You're four for four and you've got them in order so far in terms of their projected war, which is even more impressive. You know I didn't look up war before this started.

But this is the most difficult one of all. Because the Phillies are projected to be around 500 or a little bit above 500. I think I've called this team the Phillies of the AL at some point so i'll give you one hint it's an al team it's an al team yep phillies of the al angels angels yes a team that

and should be more successful than it is i think that's a i think it's a fair description have some good players yeah sometimes project okay project okay. Never play well. They're not rubbish. They have legitimate playoff aspirations. So my mind probably works a little too similarly to Eno's where the first thought I had was. Obviously, I just looked right at your list. So it's kind of like, okay. I'm just going to get my opinion.

That's how my mind works. We're not limited to these five teams. And I think each of us can throw one in there efficiently overlap player movement left you know i was texting with a player about like how crazy it's going to be when the doors are open again right so there's a few teams that were not in this group that are not that far behind that are still in the range of being the caliber of teams that were in the playoffs in 2021 by the way the worst playoff team based on current projected war going into 2022, the Giants. Not a surprise given how much they sort of pop and exceeded expectations a year ago.

So you can choose any team you want that didn't make the playoffs last season. I just thought that'd be a good starting point for some teams that we thought were either playoff contenders or certain playoff teams last year that didn't end up making it. Britt, we'll go to you first. Yeah, I'm racking my mind right now. See, I always lean toward the weaker divisions because that gives you a chance for a team to sneak in. And it always seems like the AL Central and NL Central are just weaker divisions, you know? So, like, could the Twins be a playoff team if they made the right

moves here would really surprise me you know just because of that division i think i look at it in terms of um how the tigers come together quickly tigers was another one i was gonna say like like you know you have to look at like the division and if there's no like powerhouse one or two like in the ales like could the red again? Maybe, but it's like, look how good the Yankees and Blue Jays are going to project are projected to be in the Yankees are, you know, are going to spend money. They need a shortstop. They need to probably fill out that rotation a little bit.

So it's like, okay, they probably don't have a chance. You look at, you know, the NL West, you know, I got a Padres are going to be good. You know, the Giants will probably still be good, even though nobody thinks now they're going to be good. You know, the Giants will probably still be good, even though nobody thinks now they're going to be able to repeat what they did. So yeah, I go by like kind of divisions and an AL Central team could maybe surprise me. Same thing in the NL, the

NL Central, you know? Yeah. Yeah, it's just hard to cardinals last year and they won like 20 games in a row. Yeah. So the NL Central is weird because I'm actually working on an episode with each of the beat writers in that division of the athletic baseball show. And it's,

we're going team by team and kind of trying to figure out what these teams are going to do once they can make moves again. That is, that is a division across the board that everyone could mostly sit on their hands. It could be a few trades, minor signings, but as you try and project where the

best remaining players in free agency go, they all tend to end up on a team that's not in that division. As a result, you do have at least two obvious contenders with the Brewers and Cardinals, but then you have the Cubs, depending on what they do, they

could just hang around and maybe be good enough just because the division's weak. What if they surprise us and sign Correa? I mean, it's not impossible. The Cubs have money. They could do it. It's not. It's not impossible.

And the Yankees is not a lock. I mean, there's some – yeah, it's interesting. I mean, even story to the Cubs would be a big deal because the Cubs, like if you made Horner and Madrigal more depth pieces than your starting middle infield, that might improve the team a lot. Yeah. Yeah.

So I just think that division, it's up for grabs if anyone wants to put more effort into making their roster better. And yet it feels like many of those teams are going to choose to be limited in the upgrades they get. So the Mets are the one that sort of jump off the page in terms of projection. But it's the NL East is still, I think, a reasonably tough division.

The Nats are down right now. The Marlins are getting better. I think that's that's pretty clear in these numbers, too. The Marlins could be if you put the Marlins in one of the central divisions, i think you could talk yourself into them as a 2022 playoff team a little bit easier i think in the nl east more difficult to see it right now but brit you don't want to put your name on the mets in 2022 as a playoff team do you well i do go on s and y and people feel like i hate on the mets a lot so another the blue and orange oh Mets shirt would sell like crazy. There's a couple of reasons.

I just don't respect them. Somebody needs to make these. There's a few things with the Mets that convinces me that maybe they won't be like the LOL Mets. The first has to be Buck Showalter who has brought accountability and winning to everything. People have different opinions on him. I saw him up close for

eight years. I saw what he did in that clubhouse. I saw what he did with an organization that was laughed at. I think he's going to be really good there. The staff they've assembled, I think, is really strong. And I think when you add a guy like Max Scherzer, you get automatic accountability. He's a guy who's going to police the clubhouse the same way Buck is going to change the, you know, the culture around the team. Max Scherzer is going to set the tone. I mean, he's out there doing crazy running routines and punishing things days before he starts. And it kind of rubs off on other guys.

Like, boy, Max is out there doing some stuff. Maybe I should do some stuff. You know, I think those were two big impact moves. And when you have an owner who's willing to spend, I, I know the Braves are going to be good too. Um, but I just don't know how the Mets fall apart like they did this year again, uh, with some of the moves that they made. I like that the addition of Arte. Um, I think they're going to be just a, a much better, more well-rounded team. And I don't think they're done yet either. I think they have another move or two in them when the floodgates open, so to speak. Yeah, that's interesting. The two

things that I was thinking about were, you know, I like that their moves so far have created depth by signing starters. Basically they push Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, those guys into depth roles. And that's pretty amazing. Those are are good depth good depth players also give them some options maybe for a trade to get like a fifth starter or something um but the other thing i'm thinking of is that you know of like we named these teams right to my my guess is that the teams we named are mostly done now i, I think you might be right. Maybe the Mets have one more move in them. But it is interesting that this is,

the war depth charts are a snapshot in time and that we have, I would say, at least sort of 10 to 15 really good free agents left, you know, that can actually move the needle for a team. And that of the teams we mentioned, it's not likely that they're going to sign any of those 10 to 15 free agents. Right.

The only one I can think of is like Kimbrel to the Phillies seems like, like a total possibility, but I don't think they have enough money to sign, you know, a big free agent. Well, the Padres should, should make a move here because they really haven't done anything.

Yeah. But they were right up. They, they went over the Lux tax last year. Yeah. That done anything. Yeah, but they were right up. They went over the Luggs tax last year. Yeah, that's true. They're sitting right near that line. I think they signed like an outfielder for $10 million and that might be it. Yeah, you're right.

But here's the other thing I keep coming back to at the Mets, you guys. DeGrom and Scherzer atop your rotation just prevents really long losing streaks. Oh, yeah. No, no. I think if I, of all the teams that we talked about that haven't made it, I'm picking the Mets, you know, because like you said, the Blue Jays are in a tough, tough division. The Padres are in a tough, tough division. You know, those are the other two.

That's those three are the chalk picks and the Mets have the easiest road of the three. So, you know, I think that's that's a smart pick. But I did want to bring up that, like, you know, Correa's still a needle mover. You know, I forget, you know, Story, I think, could be a really big pickup for somebody. There's still some good names out there. And then Kimbrel's still out there to be moved. So whoever you think has, like, an okay bullpen

that needs to get better, like, you know, the Phillies, I think, would get a fair amount better with kimbrough because they already got knievel so now you got you know now you have an actual you know good looking bullpen maybe so all right so we all agree on the mets by the way i'm in i think i like the moves they've made to this point for all the reasons you guys mentioned even if de grom struggles to stay healthy the addition of scherzer gives them so much more cushion in the rotation than they had before that addition. There's plenty to like here. The Mets are one of the teams that we're putting in as a new playoff team.

If we can try to pick a second one, I would like to make a case for the Angels because I am stupid. I think the Angels, they have the star power, but coming off a season where Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout missed, I think, a billion games combined as the official total. I'm not sure if I'm doing the math right, but if you get Trout back for 130-plus games and you get Rendon back for 130-plus games, I'm baking in one reasonable IL stint for each player. You keep Otani healthy for another season, and you get even 80% of what you got from him in 2021.

That could be like a seven-wing. I mean, just getting Trout and Rendon back, that could be like an extra seven wins that you didn't have last year. You got to pitch, though. I mean, I know they got Syndergaard, but you got to get another pitcher. You've got to overload your pitching because they never have enough of it. Agreed. They've got to make another move.

Agreed. I'm totally on board with getting more pitching. But I do think they have at least one more big move in them. Same. If not two. It might be. I don't think they're in the Correa level, even though they have spent big in free agency in the past.

To see them add another $300 million type player to the mix doesn't quite seem where they'd go. But I do think the Trevor Story scenario could work. $50 million for $50-$60 million. Story or Rodon. I'm calling it. Story or Rodon is going to the Angels.

Rodon, I think, is a better solution. But if they only do rodel and they don't do story uh then luis renjifo or uh fletcher are their starting shortstops can't you get like a stopgap guy like um andres uh um bring simmons back simmons back oh yeah um yeah i mean can you get a stopgap that would be what the yankees would do if they don't get Bring Simmons back? Bring Simmons back. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, can you get a stopgap? That would be what the Yankees would do if they don't get a story or Correa

because they have those hot shot young prospects. Right. I don't know if the Angels have any prospects on the horizon in their infield. But, you know, the Yankees could easily get. I think for some teams, story is a much better fit. Less money. You could get them for less of a commitment. And I think there's

a lot of upside to seeing what he is able to do away from Colorado. I think he's a better fit. I think Story is a really great pickup. The one reason I'm voting against the Angels is that I think they were maybe

the worst organization in baseball with regards to player development and how they handled COVID and the lockdowns. They pretty much just fired all their player development staff. They didn't stay in touch with any of their players. They didn't pay their minor leaguers. And I think that's a whole I think they lost more from that shutdown year than almost anyone. I think their stable of prospects is, you know, fairly barren. And in terms of a player development pipeline, in terms of the best data and tech, in terms of, you know, having ready to go players,

I think it's Adele and Marsh and that's it. So, I mean, it's nice Adele and Marsh, I mean, one of those guys could click and then this and then this will be a really great offense. But you're going to really see it on the pitching side. If Sandoval takes a step back, I don't see anybody stepping in for him. I think the starters I believe in there, though. Otani, a healthy center guard we know is an impact guy. Still a fair question to see if he gets all the way back to what he was pre-injury. Reid Detmers had a pretty disastrous big league arrival last year, but he's supposed to be the most big league ready starter in that draft class in 2020.

So it wouldn't be that surprising if he ended up being a good mid-rotation or back-end sort of guy. That's not asking too much of Reid Detmer. So they're they're closing in. They added Aaron Loop and they brought back Rysel Iglesias. They added Michael Lorenzen. So their bullpen is actually probably a little better than it was already last year. I don't know. I see I see lots of reasons for optimism.

But I do think what Eno is describing to me, like compared to teams like the dodgers and the giants the mets that we were just talking about the depth does not stack up they can't we saw it unravel because of injuries last year that's that's exactly how it unravels on them again because they don't have the lamont wade tyro estrada that that end up shopping in the adam eaton buckets yeah and you don't want up shopping in the Adam Eaton buckets. Yeah, and you don't want to shop in the Adam Eaton bucket. Isn't he a coach there now? He's going to be? That one just really surprised me.

I never got the sense that Adam Eaton was a well-liked player. The players I talk to do not like Adam Eaton was a, like a well liked. That's what I'm saying. The players I talked to do not like Adam Eaton. There you go. Maybe. I think having covered him as a player, cause you guys didn't, do you guys really get to know him?

No. I heard a story about him when he was coming up in the diamond back system where he stepped into the box and he tried to talk up the catcher. Just kind of like, hey, what's going on? And the guy didn't say anything. And he got kind of mad. And he's like, I'm going to be a pain in your ass all day today. And it's like just that like wants to kind of just fight people all the time sort of mentality.

Always getting at it with people. Yeah. I don't know. Like there's just something like part of that attitude can be good. I almost wonder if he's the kind of teammate that you only like because you don't have to play against him. And playing against him, you're just like, oh, this guy's the worst. He's fine on my side. He's our A-hole.

I think there's something to that. Yeah. That's the vibe I got. I think it's either you really like him or you really don't, and there's really no in-between. I think it's either you really like him or you really don't. And there's really no in between. And part of that, like mighty mouse type of stuff you were describing is because he was such a late round draft pick and nobody thought he was going to go anywhere.

And he's a small guy. And so I think he embraced that, like, you know, me against everybody and never really, even when he was in the big leagues for a while, got away from that. So,

yeah, it's an interesting, I also never saw him as being someone who wanted to coach. You know, like Howie Kendrick going to the Phillies, I understood he was a really great mentor for a lot of the younger players. Him and Adam Eaton actually are very close. And it's very random because they're not similar at all. But I never saw Adam Eaton as somebody who like, you're like, ah, that guy's gonna coach one day soon. So yeah, I was also very surprised by that. You're like, that guy's going to coach one day soon.

I was also very surprised by that. Do we have anybody else we can throw out there, though? The Mets were pretty obvious. The Jays, I think we all like them. It's just more of not being as confident in predicting any team to come out of the AL East and make the playoffs because there's four playoff-caliber teams yet again. Do you want to make a case for anybody else? I raise my hand.

I'm going to talk for the Phillies a little bit here. Okay. The Phillies have across the board above average players and some stars and their biggest weaknesses are areas that are easy to fix. Their biggest weakness is left field and, uh,

and the bullpen. So I could see them going and getting, um, uh, going and getting, uh, Kyle Schwarber and Craig, Craig,

Craig Kimbrell. Craig Kimbrell would be, uh, uh, uh, Kimbrell, Craig, Kimbrell would be a great, uh, and, uh, and if you put those two on that team, I don't know.

That's actually pretty exciting. That's a good lineup. It's a really good lineup. It's a better bullpen. You know, you want a resurgence from Aaron Nola. I don't know. Some things like that.

Yeah. They're starting pitcher war. Philly's starting pitcher war is second only to the Mets right now. That is actually a lot better than I would have guessed. And you got Harper coming off of an MVP season. So, you know, yeah. You mean in the NL? It says here on the Mets, Brewers, Phillies in the NL.

Yeah, for some reason, the way this table is, it's got the Phillies to tick a half win over the Brewers. But I ran this in early December, so maybe something's tweaked. Nola, Wheeler, Gibson, Suarez, Eflin. I think that's a fine five. The depth is a little bit questionable with Kraus and Falter, but there's some guys there. All right.

All right. So Ido and I have thrown ourselves out there with ridiculous predictions that are not that ridiculous. Made it a little bit more on offense than pitching. I don't think they're that bad. They're both ranked in the top five. They weren't crazy predictions, I think. Do you want to go off the board?

Do you want to go outside that top five, Britt, and share a hallucination with us? No, I don't want to go off the board? Do you want to go outside that top five, Britt, and share a hallucination with us? No, I don't want to go outside that board. I want to stay in that board. That board seems like the safe space. Okay, let's all pick a really weird one. I'm picking the Tigers. That's my really weird one.

You're going to pick a really weird one? Yeah, I like that. Just to make the playoffs. Yeah, and you convinced me actually with your... And actually, we should do this because it might be a 14-team field. I'm going to go with the Twins then. I'm going to go with the Twins.

Nice. And we're doing some similar reasoning. You convinced me on the division. The reason I'm picking the Tigers is I don't like the Javi Baez deal long-term, but in the short-term, it's a great boost for their offense. And I see a bunch of pitching there that if they sort of came together,

if some of those guys, if like Skubal takes another step forward or Manning takes a step forward, I think that could really change that team. Plus Riley Green and Spencer Torkelson, they might start from day one. They're going to be good soon. It's just a matter of how soon, right? Is it going to be this year or is it going to be in the future? I agree with you. They're set up really well. I think you look at the twins and they've massively underperformed this past year. Everyone thought they were going to be a playoff team. So, you know, you look at, at the fact that they haven't really made any moves. They probably have a couple moves in them here during this frenzy. They're going to have to make some moves.

And they're in a really weak division, so why not? Why not them? I think people are kind of down on them because they started so poorly and never got out of the gate. But you look at their roster, and there's still plenty of talent there. There's still plenty of potential there if they make the right moves in the offseason. I think the front office is very savvy.

I think Rocco Baldelli does a great job as a manager. I think they could be kind of a sleeper team. I'm actually on board with that one for sure, just because I do think they have some stars within that group of position players. I think the key for them is figuring out a way to exceed expectations with pitching, with whatever mix of the old veterans they brought in,

prospects coming up. That's part of their story. It's not just out hitting the pitching. And will they ever spend money on a starting pitcher? You know, like, would they? I was like, what if you put Rodon on that team? That'd be different, but they're not that type of team. They don't spend money on pitching.

No, I mean, they spent it on Donaldson a few years ago. Yeah, but they'll spend it on hitting, yeah. But I just don't see them spending money on pitching no i mean they spend it on donaldson a few years ago yeah but you know they'll spend on hitting yeah but i just don't see them spending money on pitching so you know yeah where is that coming from who's going to break out is it joe ryan does joe ryan throw like 160 innings of like 350 ball it's possible i guess it's possible yeah i mean it's it's easier to see it and if you think back to expectations a year ago, you can definitely make it happen. Who's your weirdo? I'm going to go with the Reds as my weirdo.

I mean, if we're saying the centrals are soft, the Reds are in this weird spot where they seem like a team that has no interest in spending any more money. They seem more likely to trade a good player away than to trade young talent away for an established good player. So I'm saying this even knowing that well sunny gray could be pitching somewhere else right all these pitching desperate teams we're talking about might send some prospects to cincinnati and cincinnati might

say we're fine with castillo and molly and san martin and green and lodolo we're gonna go a little younger in the rotation and maybe he brings back somebody that we've we slide in there ahead of them yeah maybe they do something like that we slot in there ahead of them. Yeah, maybe they do something like that. But the division, okay, the division is soft enough where it opens the door for any team that's even close to contend.

I would say the Reds are, they're comparable to the Giants in terms of how they're projected. Good pitching, not enough hitting. There are a few hitters I actually like as possible. Bounce back guys, a full season of a healthy Jesse Winker.

I was on the turn to podcast on Wednesday night, a full season of Jesse Winker could be an MVP level season. That is a ceiling. He has like three, 300 and 300 average, like 35 homers. That's the forecaster box that baseball, the baseball forecaster had for him.

Totally possible that he could do that. We saw Jonathan India breakout last year. Maybe you get from jose barrero at shortstop this year if kyle farmer doesn't work out who wants to bet against joey vato i certainly don't losing nick castellanos is it hurts you but replacing a corner outfielder is something you can actually do you're just talking about the phillies possibly adding someone like kyle schwarber i think if the reds were to make a move, it's one bat that fills a corner, a cheap replacement for Castellanos.

And I can talk myself into if they just stick with what they have and add one little piece, suddenly they're a team that can hang around, maybe win 85 games and come to the trade deadline. Then they add a couple more pieces to fix their flaws. Yeah, I like it. I mean, they even have this extra piece of Mike Moustakis that is not on any depth charts.

You're just like, no, he's not done yet. He could have a resurgence. That could maybe push India to the outfield for the short term and kind of paper over that missing spot. You definitely have that one missing spot in the corner outfielder. I think that Cal Bote did a pretty good job of putting together some pitching in his short term there, and all their guys did really well over COVID,

and they didn't miss a beat, and that's why you're seeing Reaver Sammartine and Tony Santillan and all these guys come up with 90 pitches and ready to go. I think there's something there. It's unfortunate they feel like sellers. They do. We were so excited about them spending money two off-seasons ago, and now it's like, wait, it's over already?

You didn't even you didn't even go to the dance you just you bought the suit and never put it on like what what are you doing i don't know why i used that metaphor that was weird i'm actually i'm actually hallucinating right now that is going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels find brit on twitter at brit underscore droly find eno at you know saris find me at derek van ryper of course get a subscription to the athletic 33 off at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels we are back with you on monday thanks for listening