Rates & Barrels - February Risers & Fallers w/Vlad Sedler of FTN

Episode Date: February 28, 2025

Vlad Sedler (@rotogut) joins DVR to discuss a few spring news items before digging into February's risers and fallers on draft boards as Wyatt Langford has cruised into the top-40, Junior Caminero has moved into the top-75, and Alex Bregman is making his way back toward the top-100 after landing with the Red Sox. Plus, they discuss a few of the rapidly rising closers whose job outlooks changed over the course of the past months, and a few fallers -- including the draft market's drop of Rays pitching as the Tampa Bay staff will have its home games at Steinbrenner Field in 2025. Rundown 2:08 Spring News Updates: Andrew Benintendi, Zach Neto & Hyeseong Kim 9:50 February's Rising Hitters: Buying Wyatt Langford in Round 3? 25:07 Vlad's Trust in Matt McLain 33:48 Isaac Paredes' Rebound Potential in Houston 37:01 Relievers with Improved Job Outlooks 42:28 Clay Holmes' Draft Stock is Rising 46:25 Anticipating a Spencer Schwellenback Jump 52:09 February ADP Fallers 1:03:04 Most Overvalued/Overdraft Player(s) Currently in Top-75 Overall Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social Follow Vlad on Bluesky: @rotogut.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Host: Derek VanRiper With: Vlad Sedler Producer Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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slash connections. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, February 28th, last day of February. We made it. You're in the cold parts of this world. It is slowly but surely getting warmer. Derek Van Riper here with Vlad Sedler. We have our good buddy Eno Saris on assignment today. I can't speak to exactly what he's doing although Eno might be communicating things about that on social media that I'm not even seeing right now. It's an

exciting assignment that people will know more about a little bit later on but I'm excited to have Vlad here. Vlad, of course, works over at FTN, runs the fantasy baseball content over there. You probably know him from socials as RotoGut, long time NFBC player, great friend of mine, very sharp player as well. So, Vlad, thank you for joining me today. Thank you so much, GDR.

It's a pleasure to join you and to see you, an old friend who I've known and have been at industry events with and drafted with and against for probably over a decade, maybe even 12 years now. I know, it's probably even more, yeah. It's just, I saw something the other day, it was like, this is 15 years old, and I looked at it like,

I definitely remember everything about that. So a sign that we are definitely getting older. One thing that's kind of nice about getting older is that we have more things to do. We have the discord. You can join the rates and barrels discord. Jump in there. Have some conversations about draft strategy. Got questions about this episode. You can send them in there. You get questions for a future episode.

You could throw those in the mailbag channel. But the main focus today is going to be some February risers and followers. We're going to look a lot at NFPC ADPs, talk about some of the players that are moving up, some that have slipped, try to figure out where we can find values, and ask the age-old draft season question of how much is too much when it comes to a rising price on a player that the market really seems to like. So that's going to be the main theme of today's show. We'll have some other strategy topics blended into the show as well. And as we do on most shows, we've got some news to pass along real quick before we get started. I saw Andrew Benentendi out four to six weeks with a non-displaced fracture in his hand.

He's gonna try to make opening day, but that's gonna be really close on the short end of that timetable. I think I just look at Benentendi as a really oatmeal-y player, Vlad, just a high volume guy that actually had a pretty good second half for the White Sox last year, but the quality of that lineup is so bad that even everyday playing time is gonna probably keep Ben Intendi in the range of most like 15-team leagues.

Even a 12-team league, he looks more like a streamer to me than somebody you'd wanna rely on as your last outfielder. Yeah, he was already a borderline dicey guy in 15 teamers. I think one of those, if you've taken a lot of risks throughout your draft and you do just want some vanilla, just an outfielder, that when they have some good matchups you could use, but obviously this changes that. For me personally, falls out of my top 500.

And you're right, I mean, you're already kind of working against the grain with somebody that is on the White Sox on an offense where You know quite literally all the goodness and happiness that they might have on day one is gonna Just be sucked out slowly over the course of the season It's gonna impact them all on a real-life level and fantasy level I still think the the main White Sox image just burned into my brain from 2024 was Miguel Vargas throughout the second half of the season after he got traded there by the Dodgers. Just sitting there like he was miserable. Getting playing time but just miserable because it was such a horrible rebuilding year for the White Sox. By the end of the year I think there are going to be

more watchables that bring up some prospects but yeah I think the first half of the season is going to be kind of brutal for the White Sox as they kind of trot through a lineup full of cast offs and veterans to begin the season. I did get some news on Zach Neto. He should make his season debut in April. A little more information than the Angels gave us before. Vlad this has been weird. I've been bugging our writer Sam Blum, he covers the Angels for us at the Athletic and I keep asking him like have they ever said what specifically was fixed in Neto's shoulder? You know was it a labrum? Was it a capsule? What was it? And they have been completely quiet about the details of that surgery so we're sort of left to guess based on the timetable and if he

is in fact back in April then it's probably not a labrum But nevertheless, it's shoulder surgery that cost him months during the offseason and probably a month of the regular season So even with the news that he's gonna debut in April I don't know if I'm any more interested in him because I'm not sure netto Right out of the gates is going to be the player he was throughout last season I loved him back in early November before the news of the surgery dropped. I thought he was actually one of the more undervalued players in the early rounds, given that power-speed combo,

but he's still kind of an avoid for me, just because of the uncertainty about who he's going to be upon returning. Yeah, last year he was a great value. This year he has been a full fade. In fact, in my rankings, I've had him so far as 75. I mean, that's five full rounds in a 15 team or below his actual draft price. And that is partially because we were in a season of mostly early drafts where we're draft and holds, and just didn't see it being worth it. And also, we have to be a little bit more pessimistic when it comes to injuries. I know when 10 years ago

I was a lot different like oh, he's coming back in April green Guys, they need those spring training reps They need to get it get their flow going and get those plate appearances and get out on the field And so he's been behind the eight ball this whole time It is promising that they're seeing April for all we know it could be May or it could be, you know Maybe he's back in April, but actually productive in it could be May or it could be maybe he's back in April but actually productive in May. Could be June, he could have a setback.

There are so many issues, yet there are also so many players in the 200s, like in the ranges where he goes, like late hundreds to choose from. So why am I gonna take somebody who's already kind of behind everybody and then I'm just, I'm paying max value for what likely isn't going to be a profit. Yeah, Neto's really kind of settled into that pick 190 range over the last three months or so since that injury news dropped in November.

Like you, I've been staying away so far and I'm not really inspired by the the cast of characters they're trying to use to replace him in the short term either Tim Anderson's getting a look this spring, Kevin Newman. I just I have no interest in investing in the Angels shortstop situation for 2025. The last news item for today I think is maybe a little more interesting. Hyesung Kim has a completely revamped swing. And I thought it was interesting when the Dodgers signed him in the first place because it didn't seem like there was that much league wide interest in Kim or at least at the level at which the Dodgers were comfortable paying for him. There have been some reports recently he might open the year in the minors having a completely

revamped swing sort of explains that if he's not that comfortable with it. There was a report from Fabian Ardai of the Athletic saying that Kim was saying he's like a 20 to 30 percent of where he wants to be with his new swing which is not necessarily what you want if you're going to face Major League pitching for the first time. So I'm just curious what you're doing with Kim and how you see him fitting into the Dodgers playing time picture where there could be some pretty significant winners for early season playing time if Kim in fact does go down to the minors.

I've been buying on Kim in deeper leagues. And of course, you know, we're talking 15 teamers, I think, with 12 teamers. He's really on the cusp there. I don't think you're going to see him in over the next couple of weeks being drafted in a lot of 12 teamers, he's really on the cusp there. I don't think you're gonna see him over the next couple weeks being drafted in a lot of 12 teamers, but I am a big fan. A lot of things I read on Twitter, especially because he is already off to a little bit of a slow start,

and partially because of this and the minor league conversation, it's impacting his price. People are out, and this is a guy that is a 300 hitter overseas. sure, if you even, you know, you say that's like a 280 guy here, maybe even less, this is an elite contact guy who just got out here, he's going to be around the best of the best

and he is gonna learn and figure it out. He's amazing defensively and he can hit and he can play all over the field. So it might be a little bit of a slow start for him. I think that's expected. But a guy that can, you know, platoon with Muncie at third, he can play second, he can, you know, hop in the outfield. He can hit even leadoff if you really need it, if there happen to be some issues with that team. It's going to take a little bit of time. He's gonna fit right in. I think he's gonna gel. I don't think people should expect double digit homers or anything.

Might only hit a few. But the value comes from him playing a lot because his defense is what would get him in the lineup. In which case, he probably would get helpful batting average, stolen bases because he's fast, and probably some runs as well. Yeah, and I've started to wonder throughout this winter if because of the new rules in Major League Baseball

the last couple of years, the bigger bags, the disengagement rules, if it's become easier to steal bases at the MLB level than it is to steal them in the KBO even, just because it's just a different situation now. In the KBO last year, Kim had 30 stolen bases in just 127 games, only caught six times. He's been pretty efficient throughout his career.

I think this high water mark was a 46 steal season back in 2021. So yeah, I think you're right. I think it's average and OVP speed, maybe run production or just runs based on where he ends up in that lineup. Those are probably the categories where he does the most damage for you. But I was really surprised they were completely revamping the swing. And then I wondered if maybe that'll unlock some more power over the course of time as well for Heise on Kim with the Dodgers. Let's shift the focus to our risers and fallers though Vlad. We want to focus mostly on hitters to begin and I like talking about the core players a little bit because you

can see big movers further down the board, right? Sleeper articles come out, more podcasts come out, people start saying, oh, okay, yeah, we all like Matt Wallner, we all like guys that are going late and they jump up four, five, six rounds, and that's just, that's every draft season. But seeing the gradual movement of core players and wondering if we should still be buying in at rising prices, I think is a more challenging question to try and answer, let's start with Wyatt Langford. A wildly popular player, making a push toward the middle of round 3. As February comes to a close, he started draft season going in that

pick 50-55 range. Injuries kept him from really having a full shot at going 20-20 as a rookie, but he was close to that pace. He doesn't chase, he's just a prominent spot in a good Rangers lineup, makes a lot of hard contact. Are you in, even at the increased price on Wyatt Langford? Do you think having an ADP in the mid 30s is actually appropriate given the potential ceiling? As always is the case, it's a matter of roster build and how you're constructing. And I know that's something we'll discuss today.

And it's always a matter of what is the alternative and how you are sort of mapping out and building your teams. I do like Wyatt Langford a lot. I do think that with a third round ADP, obviously there's very little margin for profit because to expect for him to return first round value, I think it's tough, it's possible, but it's so you know, you're kind of at the max point the fact that he has this little oblique Despite it being minor thing has slowed down the helium a little bit

So just even over the last few days you see some kind of more reasonable prices on him Anyone that gets dinged up in spring, you know, I saw an immediate effect with Gunnar Henderson in best balls. All of a sudden, oh my gosh, he's there in the early second, like let's pounce. So I like Langford a lot and obviously started off slow in the first half and then he was hurt. And then the second half really started to pick up the pace. And then the final month of the season, him and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners, they were second in baseball behind Ohtani in war. Basically, he had 180 WRC plus over that last month of the season, slashing 300, 386 and 610. Eight homers, bunch of stolen bases. So that was nice to see. And now you've got him on a team that is pretty loaded. You got a lot of maybe 25% plus strikeout guys,

but I think a key for him would be the health of Corey Seager. If you've got Seager and Langford there in the middle of that lineup, with a good supporting cast and those two stay healthy all year, could be very dangerous. They're gonna score a lot of runs. Wyatt Langford's,

where most systems are projecting his run in RBI might even be low, in fact, based on what is possible. And we don't even know his ceiling. It could be a 30-30 type with a good average and a first round return. So anything's possible, but again, it just depends on how we're building. Yeah, and I think you're looking at,

similar position players, looking at Michael Harris and O'Neal Cruz as the two guys that go there. I can see people being more comfortable with Harris just because it's a slightly safer profile, less swing and miss than Cruz. That's kind of similar to Langford, where it's like, oh, he controls the strike zone really well. I think the difference is Langford walks more than Harris,

and Langford has like that extra real life polish that locks in that higher lineup spot whereas Harris I feel like kind of fluctuates might hit higher in the order against righties and then have to drop down against lefties even though his glove keeps him in the lineup and you know O'Neil Cruz is just fun it's like the what could go right scenario and I think as long as he's healthy O'Neil Cruz returns third round value actually do like him at the price but if I'm looking at this trio I'm actually pretty excited to come away with any one of them if they're all

sitting there in the middle of round three because I think they're easily 20-25 players with room for a tick more if it all clicks. Let's talk about Wilson Contreras for a moment. His jump is kind of obvious. It happened over the course of draft season as soon as the Cardinals announced he was going to move to first base because now there's a chance that Wilson Contreras leads all catcher-eligible players in plate appearances, at least in the range of outcomes, whereas if he was primarily a catcher, based on everything we've seen throughout his entire career, that really wasn't likely at all. He didn't have that sort of track record of durability for a catcher. So I think generally, and correct me if I'm wrong, you're not usually an early catcher

builder. You usually don early catcher builder. You usually don't build that way. Do you make exceptions? Does having a guy that can have exceedingly high playing time with the position actually draw you to a situation where you would be more willing to take one of your catchers early?

I'm open to every plan and every idea if the player fits, if my valuations justify it based on perhaps like where the player is falling in the draft the thing with the Wilson Contreras is I absolutely love him he is one of my favorite catchers in fantasy in fact I think he could easily be the number one overall catcher and there's a huge advantage you have a first baseman guy that's gonna play first getting you catcher eligibility so it's a bit of a cheat code there his power is you know it's still legit he's over 30 this is a guy

that is average exit velocity of 91 92 miles per hour the last couple seasons barrel rates in the 11 to 12 percent range the team context I like some of the players I don't know I don't don't love the manager I don't know how everything's gonna shake out there. And then of course he's got this strange injury history, just always something happening. And it's not all having to do with his position. It wasn't all just the fact that he was catching

that led to some of these injuries. So there was always a little bit of a concern for me. I love Wilson Contreras, the whole market does unfortunately. So, you know, in, I was drafting in November, I grabbed some Wilson Contreras in the whole market does, unfortunately. So, you know, in, I was drafting in November, I grabbed some Wilson Contreras in the 80s, 90s overall, before he started rising. Now, it's really truly fully priced. If you're in the 60s, there are good, you know, top closers there, you've got starting pitchers, there's other ways to go about it. So it

does make it a little difficult. If you're talking about a fifth round pick in a 15 team or sixth round pick in a 12, it makes it difficult. So though I would love to have a lot of votes and contrary shares, I don't know if I'll get that. It might just be something I will have to target in auction. Yeah, I was gonna say, I imagine when it's dollar for dollar it might be a different approach than when it's the snake draft

I've described players like this in recent years I think like Freddie Freeman is another example of something I always see that myself being more likely to get when it's 28 or 30 bucks out of my budget as Opposed to the middle of round two like I just I I feel like there's a tension there It's because you can get multiple second round picks in an auction if that's how you want to build, right? You can go stars and scrubs, or you have more control over everything else you do, because it's dollar for dollar instead of pick for pick. So I think that's a good way to look at Wilson Contreras.

It's a good way to look at a lot of players that you might have liked at their previous draft prices and say, okay, I'm out in round four even though I was in round seven, but I'll just pay the extra two or three bucks in the auction. Sometimes they don't go up evenly. That's sort of the key difference in the two formats. Let's talk about Jordan Westberg for a bit. He's up about 23 spots. He was a fringe top 100 guy when draft season started, now a top 75 pick in February.

And I'm wondering if people came to the collective conclusion that Westberg is clearly an everyday guy for the Orioles. Because the initial sets of projections I was seeing had less than everyday playing time on Westberg and other than the time he missed with injury in the second half of last year, he was effectively an everyday player. I've seen a lot of different takes on Westberg, just ranging from he is what he is, there's nothing left for him to do to get better.

I've seen some people that are a little more optimistic. I look at him and I wonder if based on what he did as a hitter coming through the Orioles system if Westburg might be more patient this time around and maybe walk more even if it costs him some swing and miss. Like sometimes you work the count more, you strike out more. But I almost wonder if like he'll get better by doing some of the things he did on his way to the big leagues. He was 80th percentile in barrel rate last year, kept the K rate at 21.7%. And he was 91st percentile in sprint speed too, didn't

steal that many bases. So I wonder if even just getting on base a little more actually unlocks more bags from Jordan Westberg and maybe that's one way he adds value in 2025. Yeah, I mean, he is one of the rising stars on this team. The problem with the Orioles that they're they are absolutely loaded on offense. Yeah, I was talking about this the other day, like this is the perfect scenario of a team that's very top heavy in the offense and they need to make it a trade for Dylan Cease type of arm. And they're just, for even me, doing playing time projections. Baltimore is the team I've spent like more time than ever because it's impossible to figure out

because then you've got no, you know, no bats for Kobe Mayo. And what about Heston Kirstad? And then they signed Ramon Larianno for five mil. He needs to get some short side platoon at bats. What do you do with Gary Sanchez? Is he going to play against lefties? I mean, there's just so much going on with this team. I just don't know how it's going to shake out. What this means is Westbrook needs to be on it. Like he can't slip even at all because this is the type of team where, you know, he could potentially lose playing time if he is scuffling or he can potentially get pulled

into a platoon. So I see a lot of movement with the offense, the way that it's currently constructed. You mentioned his stat cast metrics last season, the barrel rate, just the plate discipline. He looks the part. It looks really, really solid. You're getting second and third base eligibility

in most formats. Where he's going to hit in the lineup, I think, is still up for debate. But he is starting to get fully priced to me. For me, I somehow don't understand why he's going in the 70s when there are... It's all relative, but there are plenty of amazing options that are comparable that are going two, three rounds later. So for me, I just haven't been clicking that Westbrook Westbrook button It's for me. He's closer valued at around pick a hundred and so yeah, it's it's tough

He's definitely above you know, say that the Royce Lewis range I think there's obviously a lot of concern with can or is Lewis play a full season But it's not you know, 50 60 picks greater than Royce Lewis. Yeah, I do think it's interesting. I think with the crowd they have, the downside outcomes for a good player are worse than they should be. I don't think he's going to lose playing time but he could. If he plays poorly enough for a long enough stretch it could cost them a share of his job. And I think maybe that's the lingering concern even though there's a lot to still like in this package. And you're right, the comparable hitters by ADP either

have longer track records or they seem to have higher ceilings. I think that's maybe part of the challenge with the inflated price on Jordan Westberg. A guy that I really liked last year, a guy that I liked at the beginning of draft season, but maybe someone who's less likely than any of my teams now at the top 75 pick price point. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics, and definitely a holiday trip. And what if each time you made a purchase,

you got a little something back? With Rakuten, you can earn cash back on just about anything you buy from over 750 stores. So if you're looking to buy a new phone, clothes, skincare or a getaway, well, you can get cash back. So treat yourself, family and friends and book that holiday trip now. Start getting cash back today by joining Rakuten.

It's free and easy to use and you can get cash back deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check. It's the smartest way to shop, plain and simple. Start your shopping at rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Right next to him is another riser, Junior Caminero. And I don't think Junior Caminero is done moving up necessarily. I think there's a world in which we're talking about him as maybe a fourth round pick once

we get to main events at the end of March. It doesn't seem like it takes much for a top prospect like Caminero in spring to get that last push, to get that last little bit of helium. We saw him hit the Mammoth home run in the Winter League and just uncork one of the best celebrations for that home run of the entire year. So I'm curious where you are in Caminero. Like what do you do with prospects in particular,

guys that don't have long track records in the big leagues yet who seem to catch even more helium, especially when projections also like him. You're getting a little bit of what we saw when Vlad Jr. broke through, where projection systems spit out numbers, and you're going, whoa, that's really aggressive for someone that hasn't spent a lot of time

in the big leagues. So what do you do with Kamen Arrow? He's an absolute riser. I kind of group him and Westberg together, because they don't have like a full season of show. And obviously Caminero is of a much higher, you know, prospect status, I guess you could say, or just more expectations on the fantasy side. You know, I kind of group a lot of times the corner and fielders together, the third and first baseman, just kind of the way I look at it. And for me, I don't see much difference with him over some of the other guys that are going at this

point now, 20, 30, in some cases, 40 picks beyond him. And I'm talking about Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Vinny Pascantino, Cody Bellinger, first baseman outfield. Like, is he really going to produce five to 10 more dollars than those guys? I don't know. It's a tough bet. And then if you start creeping into the fourth round, that's tough. You're betting on just everything absolutely clicking. There are good things about obviously him himself. I mean, he's obviously going to be a tremendous hitter one day. Will that be this year? I don't know.

I think he might still go through some ups and downs. The ballpark there, the small Small park the replica Yankee Stadium minor league park. I think is good for him. The lineup is it's dicey I don't think it's necessarily all that great and there's some good pitching there They'll play a lot of games against a Elise teams. There's some you know, some some really good arms there So I'm fine with him, but I'm not gonna end up with a lot of cam and arrow just because I'm very reticent to, you know, follow along with the helium. I almost like to kind of set them up, you know, help set the micro market price early. And then if it starts getting away from me, I'm not going to go chasing it unless I'm completely convinced on something.

Yeah. I think the other part of it with junior cam and arrow too is that there's probably not a lot of speed coming from him. And I think he can run a little bit. We saw that in the lower levels of the minors. I know he had a leg injury last year at AAA that cost him time, probably kept him from getting up to the big leagues sooner a year ago as well. So maybe that's part of why he wasn't running a lot in 2024, but you don't have that extra category to bail you out. So I think it puts a lot of pressure on the average and the power. I do think the park situation with them playing their home games at Steinbrenner Field has caused a lot of market fluctuations. We've seen pretty much

all the raise hitters creep up the board, all the raise pitchers have slid down. We'll talk about the implications of that a little bit later on in today's show. What are you doing with Matt McClain? You know they did trade away at Jonathan India and they go out and trade for Gavin Lux so still kind of crowded by the same number of infielders floating around. Probably less faith right now that Novy Marte has a huge role for them based on what happened from him in 2024. But McClain, for those who forgot, had a torn labrum that required surgery last March and then on his way back had a rib cage injury in August that just kept him off the field until the

Arizona Fall League. All of his appearances this spring have been at second base. There were some whispers he'd go back and maybe play some center field like he did as a freshman at UCLA. He's up about 27 spots now since the start of draft season. Is this just a bump because of health? Is it a bump because people don't have faith in Gavin Lux? How do you explain it?

And are you interested in Matt McLean at that price, given that we saw a major injury off of a debut that was better than anybody would have expected? Yeah, I'm very interested. In fact, I have a high percentage of shares, shares in air quotes, because the terminology and fantasy these days it's not a stock yeah I get it but I guess I'm partially

responsible for it because you know what my you know VDP rankings that come out are one of the earliest ones in November and I've had him a couple of rounds ahead of his ADP and so for me this rise I think is it's not I'm not saying I'm setting the market by any means but what I'm saying is he was undervalued to begin with and now that they're seeing him in person That is having a positive impact because he himself is is a good hitter, you know, he's gonna be a 2020 guy I think it's a good chance. He probably doesn't hurt the average the home park He hits is is it you know, obviously a tremendous place and I think he's he's very undervalued. Could he get hurt again?

Sure, any player can get hurt again. I think he's healthy right now. That's what matters. And then just, it's not exactly related, but just one other thing I wanted to say about Kaminaro is his rise, his helium is very psychological. Because if you remember, when that winter league was playing, that was the first bit of baseball that we saw.

And we saw Kaminaro, a hero, you know, doing that thing. It's just how do you not like instinctively just raise him and be like, I want that guy on my fantasy team. That just has an overall bump. I think that had a lot to do with it. It was fun. It's those fun moments. They messed with us for sure. And maybe for good reason, but sometimes they can mess with us for bad reasons. Let's get to Alex Bregman. You know, the possibility of him playing second base

and adding some eligibility there is kind of intriguing. I don't think that's the reason he's moving up. I think it's that he landed in another hitter-friendly ballpark with another very good supporting cast. And maybe people are realizing that Alex Bregman isn't washed either. I mean, it was a longer foray into free agency than I would have expected. I would have thought was a longer foray into free agency than I

would have expected. I would have thought there'd been plenty of suitors, that the Yankees would have been a good fit, that the Cubs would have been a good fit. I'm glad for my rooting interest that he ended up in Boston. What do you think year one with the Red Sox looks like for Bregman and how high up do you think he might go if he keeps swinging the bat well this spring? So this may sound crazy but there might come a point in the season where people will say, he was meant to be in this uniform.

I don't even remember what it was like in Houston. I'm serious. Like that's how that is. So he is exactly what this absolutely crazy team needs. Cause the front office is just, like I feel like there's no direction, everything with, you know, happening with Devers, them unable to control Casas, adding every reliever, you know, over 30 in the sun, Reclamation projects galore.

They seem like they have no direction and no real control this team. And so they need good vibes. They need somebody to put them in a good direction. And apparently that's been happening the very first day that Bregan got there. You've got lower level minor league players saying like, Oh my God, this guy, you know, legend in the game, you know, legend, but you know what I mean? He's like asking me about me and my family and he's interested. Like he's a good dude and people are buying into it. And he's got that like leadership, even like the way he's working with Devers. He's probably not like, you know, Hey bro, this is how you play

through base. But he's like, you know, probably getting him, you know, to buy in. way he's working with Devers. He's probably not like, you know, hey bro, this is how you play through base. But he's like, you know, probably getting him, you know, to buy in. So he's exactly what they need. And it's a great ballpark for him. And just, you know, for his approach, his pull heavy approach, and he's gonna be, he's great. As soon as he, as soon as that move was made, instantly had an increase in rankings.

It was essentially a no brainer. And even it's funny, you play around with a model in a formula. When I had him potentially going to Detroit versus here, that was like a massive swing. It was like a four or $5 swing, which is really crazy for a guy that basically is earning like teens value.

It's like, wow, that really is a big park difference. So that kind of even solidified it for me even more. Detroit's such a tough place to hit. Beautiful ballpark, underrated ballpark, as far as one to go visit and watch a game at but it's just so cold in the Midwest to start the year. Ball doesn't fly there until you get warmer in the summer months and I'm with you. I think as far as the possible plays you could have landed realistically other than Yankee Stadium this is probably the best possible fit for Alex Bregman. I think he might be a fringy top 100 guy as draft season rolls along too because the quality

of that Red Sox lineup, you have Prospects joining the group too, right? You may have Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell in that lineup for half of the season or more and they're already a pretty solid lineup as they're constructed. Two more bats to get to. Boba Shet, up 25 spots since the start of draft season. What do you suppose that can be attributed to? It was a miserable 2024 for Beau. Lost to half the season to injury, wasn't himself when he was playing.

He'd been 20% better than league average or more in every big league season prior to last year so some of the projection systems are, I think, are a little light on their projections for Bo. Are you a believer? Do you think this is a good discount worth taking? I have been in speaking or in practice because I do have Bo Bichette ranked ahead of where he has been going. So to me, he didn't feel like a 10th rounder around 150. You know, my valuations put him higher than that. And this is just not even assuming like a full bounce back. Like I don't think anyone is projecting 20 plus stolen bases from him anymore. His sprint speed has really been down. Is that something he's working on? I don't know. I know that, you know, just getting a full season of health out of a guy that is, I mean,

even with that horrendous, what, half a season of 2.25, of hitting 2.25, he's still a career 2.90 hitter. And these guys don't grow on trees in a league, you know, where the average hitter is hitting 2.40 something. So there is a lot to like here. I think there are always some concerns about Beau Bichette, and he's a fit for a specific type of build. Like if you don't have a shortstop at that point and maybe you took on a couple of O'Neill

Cruz or Matt Olson types that maybe could hurt your batting average or Marc Vientos or whomever, that would be a good sort of balance and fit. So I do like Beau Bichette in that regard. I am a little in the back of my head, I'm just not quite sure what we're going to get out of him, but I'm willing to draft them at or maybe just a little before his price. Yeah, I think Bo is the kind of player that in a keeper or dynasty league, I'm excited about the bounce back this year. I think even 2026 might be fine.

I think if I'm looking at him from a three plus year perspective or even trying to evaluate him as a GM, I don't think I'm giving Bo Bichette the Willie Adames contract or the Danzby Swanson contract from a couple of years ago because I don't know if he's gonna stay at shortstop for most of it, which is true a lot of those guys. But I think the way Bo uses the entire field,

it's good for batting average. I don't think it ages particularly well for power. And I think as the power sort of wanes as he gets older then he's going to be one of those guys that just is very sloppy if he's not stealing bases and that can be very exciting for fantasy he's not playing short stops and be very excited for a real life team either. So I think there's a shorter shelf life for this profile but I don't think we've reached the point in time we have to worry about that yet so I'm with you. I do think there's a really good use case.

I think you're right, if you're lighter on average, the further down the board you go, the harder it is to find high volume players that thrive in that category, and Bowe is a good way to sort of correct from that if you're not trying to punt in the batting average department. One more name to get to on the hitter side, E Sock Parades. Seems like another great park fit. Much like Bregman landing in Boston, Paredes effectively gets to be the replacement

for being acquired from the Cubs. Are you expecting a return to the raise level production from Paredes given that they've got the Crawford boxes and has got that extreme pole happy fly ball approach that he executes so well? He's wonderfully priced right now. I mean, personally, I haven't always been landing on him. Usually, I don't know, there are corner infielders. There are a group of them in

the 200 to 300 overall range that are solid. Or usually somebody is grabbing parites a little bit before I want to take them. But as far-up context rolls out, like you already mentioned the ballpark, I mean, that's a no-brainer. This is a guy that produces, he produces well in the front three categories, runs, homers and RBI. And I think that could be accentuated here in a role where if he's between a healthy Altuve and a healthy Jordán Álvarez, that could be a career year. But that really is the key. You're kind of hoping on those two things happening and the Astros to not fall apart. It is a different bit of a lineup there now without Bregman and it's changed a little bit. It could still be a good

lineup, but so much hinges on the health of Altube and Jordán. So if Isaac Barides needs to be like a sort of leader, you know, producer of the team is the main guy. I think that puts more pressure on him. I think it might make things a little bit more difficult. So it really is all about the health of those two guys around him. I would also throw this out there. People are pretty aware of the categorical limitations at this point. The 250 average we saw in 2023 when he hit 31 home runs with the Rays,

that's probably the best you're going to get in average with this approach. The pulled fly balls that aren't homers are going to be easy outs, right? They're going to be low babbip, even though Paredes in the past has shown the ability to use the entire field. It kind of changes his approach as a situational hitter, right? Ambushing early in the counts, trying to pull stuff, and then just slapping going the other way. It's fine. Situational hitter right ambushing early in the counts trying to pull stuff and then just slapping going the other way It's fine. It works really well, but I think the volume is really good for where he's going He's gonna play a ton and the power should come back for at least another year for ESOC parades

So what you're telling me is 235 with 40 homers. That's possible. Yeah, that's it is that's that's the high-end like Top percentile outcome I think for him as far as the power goes But yeah It might it might come to like come with a really little average be selling all the way out for it listen at 180 80p or whatever it is it's worth it I'll figure out other ways to get some average right it seems like the the way parade days hits is Less likely to collapse this year than you Hanio Suarez even though Suarez has ridiculous power The swing and miss in Suarez's game could just cause him to hit 185 and lose his job.

That's the comp I'm looking at. I need a low average mashing third baseman. I trust Paredes more at this stage of their respective careers. So that's the way I would play it. So Mike Major, another great player writing at FTN, had a Market Watch article that went up this week. He had a bunch of relievers featured in there too. I'm gonna lump these guys together because relievers move up when they get a job. Like it's very simple, right? Ryan Presley jumped up, now to the pick 175 range. Ken Lujancin signed with the Angels, similar price to Presley.

Carlos Estevez signed with the Royals a couple weeks ago, kind of bumping Lucas, Lucas Ersig to the background for now. And then Tanner Scott gets the big deal with the Dodgers also gets the the comments from Dave Roberts indicating that he's going to get the bulk of the save opportunities which I felt like we really didn't need that how many 72 million dollar setup guys exist in Major League Baseball right I mean the Dodgers have a lot of money but I don't think they were gonna throw 18 mil a year at Tanner Scott to have him pitch the seventh inning. At least I don't think that was the plan going in.

Even Tanner Scott, though, sitting closer to pick 130 right now. Who do you like out of that group? Are there any values you see that are still not getting appropriately priced up by the market given their respective situations? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting now. By the way, Mike Magher who last year won, it was his

first year actually writing in fantasy and it happened to correspond with him winning the NFPC online, I'm sorry, the online, just the overall auction championship. So he took down a few hundred teams, it took down the grand prize. So he put it all out there, he still won, so props to him. So yeah, this market watch thing is great because we're kind of looking at, I know you do the same thing, like, you know, where are these guys jumping over the last week over the last two weeks? And the closers are just so volatile. You know, with the Dodger situation, this was something where I was scared even, you know, after Tanner Scott signed, it's, you know, even at pick 150, it's like, it's hard for me to click. And this is again, a month ago, where we didn't have that sort of confirmation from Dave Roberts, when he said that Tanner Scott and Blake Trinen,

Trinen were going to get the sort of the most important outs. But before that, my thought was, you know, despite the money spent on him and Yates and whomever, they have so many guys that can do it. Why even name one guy? Why even roll with somebody keep it open, considering, you know, Tanner Scott's also their top lefty. They got Alex Vesia behind there, but sometimes you'll need a lefty, sometimes you'll need a righty. Most likely you will get 20 plus saves from Tanner Scott

with good ratios, but who knows how this thing could go. Remember Tanner Scott two years ago where he was Charlie Sheen for Major League, right? Just like balls everywhere and just couldn't control anything like a two whip for a few months and just never know when that can happen. It's not like the money controls that, you know, just because he got paid doesn't mean he won't get, all of a sudden lose his control. I like it, you know, for the ratios, you will get good saves, obviously great team contact. So I'm in for that, just like kind of add around his price.

Carlos Estevez and Ersig, like, first of all, like just pour one out for all my November through December Ersegg teams, where he was my seventh, eighth overall pick, I'm sorry, eighth round pick. And now he is essentially Kansas City's high leverage reliever. Of course that depends on Estevez, right?

He's already, I believe, dealing with some sort of, is it back discomfort or something like that? Yeah, he had a minor thing pop up. Let's see what it was. It was the lower back tightness. Yeah, so we're not too concerned, but we already know Carlos Estevez is, he's essentially like a hired gun, I guess, if you will,

because he's just a ninth inning guy. So if he just maintains, then that's the perfect scenario. You just have or say, get the harder outs, manage seventh and eighth with some of the other guys there and Hunter Harvey. And then you just have Estevez come and finish things off in the ninth. Lucas Ortega is a better pitcher, and that's probably why he's utilizing that role. But who knows how these things shake out. So that just makes me it makes it tough, right?

It makes it tough to draft Estevez where he's going in the 150 180 range, then what really is our six price and could he just take over it's, it's so tough. I mean, closers are, you know, they're, they're the bane of our, of our road to existence, but it's part of the game. They really are. I think in that one 70 range, David Bednar still sort of stands out to me as the closer that I feel the best about because We learned he was tipping pitches last year the actual stuff the velocity the movement It was all still there the track record prior to last season

I think is longer than what you're gonna find for a lot of guys that go in that 175 to 200 range So if I get stuck in that part of the board, it's Bednar I do think Carlos Estevez gets a little that part of the board, it's Bednar. I do think Carlos Estevez gets a little underrated because of the time he spent in Colorado. Because he doesn't have a multi-year track record of being an elite reliever. We look at him and say, eh, maybe he's a pop-up guy,

but I think he's good enough to keep the job. I think that's all you have to be, to be a closer. So I think he's probably my second favorite from that later bunch. I think Kenley Jansen, as great as his career's been, you could just sort of see the writing on the wall. It's either going to be a trade to a situation where he might not be a closer anymore, or it might just be the usual wobbles that we get around August where he might just lose the job anyway if he stays with the Angels,

right? So I think what you see is what you get, given his age especially. But as Tanner Scott goes, I think the price is fine right right now I think there's enough saves to go around for the Dodgers where even if he's 75% of the saves are going to him that's probably good enough to return value at that price point. A couple starters moving up one we've talked a lot about on this show Clay Holmes getting a ton of love for the new pitches we talked about the kick change yesterday up to about pick 250 and Mike wrote about this in his piece, it seems like that's gonna keep going up. Clay Holmes looks like a big time helium guy.

I wonder if that's because people are gonna look back at what Ronaldo Lopez did last year in terms of ratios and just start getting the pie in the sky, what could go right vision for Clay Holmes given that he's adding to that arsenal and he seems to have the feel for adding a lot of pitches quickly. What we see now might not even be the stuff that he's throwing as the season unfolds.

Yeah, if only it was that simple. You just do what Ronaldo Lopez and Garrett Crochet did last year. Hey, no big deal. Man, it was a good time not long ago being able to scoop up Clay Holmes at like 330 overall. That's like the 22nd round of 15 teamers. And that has long passed. And of course, I blame people like you and Eno with the big audience and helping move that market, but that's the game. That's what we do. So Clay Holmes is a great, I think he's still an okay price, but it's getting close to a little concerning. I think one of the things that moved up for him was the fact that I guess everyone around

him is going down there in the Mets organization. And also there isn't as much concern of innings limitations, or at least that's the way it's been said. I still think there could be an issue with it with innings limitation. So I don't know, sometimes these things are too good to be true. So I do have a little bit of concern at Clay Holmes. Like if he starts jumping to the top 200, like, you know, no, thank you. I'm not going to be touching it there, but it was a good pitcher. Hopefully it translates for him and hopefully he, you know, the vibe of the, you know, no offense, New York friends, but I don't know,

something just happens to players when they get to the Mets. Yeah, I think that the thing that surprised me about the 2024 Mets, though, is that the vibes for the first time in my adult life seemed like they were good around that team. And I don't know how to fully explain it. But because they've basically run it back with the same roster and then added Juan Soto and made additions on the pitching side. I can't assume the vibes are bad until they show us that they're bad, right?

So it seems like a franchise has found a way to turn some things around. As far as the ceiling price estimate for me on Clay Holmes, how about pick 180? Seth Lugo goes there right now. If you're looking at Seth Lugo versus Clay Holmes at pick 180, which would be the end of the 12th round of a 15 teamer, I think I'd take the chance on Clay Holmes. I mean, as good as Seth Lugo was last year, Holmes looks like he could be electric. Like this looks like better stuff, higher K-rates, elite ratios because of the park may be possible, but even just good ratios. I don't think he has to do a ton to return value

from that pick, so if that's where it tops out, I'm probably still in. You're right, if he starts creeping up at 100 to 125 range, there are a lot of pitchers I really like there right now. Some of those guys are gonna move up too, but I have a hard time seeing myself liking Clay Holmes more than that cluster and still paying the inflated price if he goes all the way

to the moon. I'd be interested. I'm going to after this, we, uh, after the show, I want to look and compare my Lugo verse clay homes projections. Cause I'm guessing they're not far off. And right now I'm not, you know, touching stuff Lugo with a 10 foot pole in the top 200. So for sure I would take a clay homes there.

But again, we're always like, we're, we're always hugging against ADP as well, right? Because we don't want to draft someone way too early above his thing. But if he gets there, I'll think about it. But right now it's feeling like, it's still a good price, but we'll see how much crazier it gets. How much more you and Eno will talk him up. I think the other guy that's gonna get some helium,

that's only had a little bit so far, but I always feel like there's people in the room, multiple people in every draft room that like him. It's Spencer Schwellenbach. I looked at the ADP chart I made to see how much he's actually changed this draft season. He's had eight picks for draft season, from 98 to 90, four picks in February.

It's really not that much, not even a half a round, which is surprising because I feel like everybody likes him so first off do you like him at the current price and Secondly if I'm right about the next wave of helium Like what price becomes too much on Spencer Schwellenbach who ended up being one of the more pleasant in season pick-up surprises I think last year off the waiver wire. I hate to say it I don't know I mean if he's going up any more than he already is, and it does seem like he's going

in that direction, I'm not going to end up with him anywhere in Vegas. It's funny, just last night, like late last night, I sometime, during the day, I don't get to post a lot on social media. So last night, I just, I don't know, I guess just came out. I woke up in the morning and I was like, oh, I posted this don't know. I don't know. I guess just came out. I woke up in the morning I'm like, oh I posted this I guess it was a special Schwellenbach in 2025 All-star and top 10 MLB ace or demoted to triple-a by early May then pulls the Bowdoin Francis special after the All-Star break No in between so I guess that's how I feel about them You think it's either gonna be wildly successful or disappointing and then someone else will reap the benefits that they're picking up

Spencer Schwellenbach as a midseason drop. Exactly. Something like like like it's going to be all or not. I mean, most likely the answer always usually lies somewhere in the middle. I don't think he's going to be a top 10 starting pitcher, but he can easily be a top 25 guy. I don't understand why a guy like him is cruising, you know, way up the boards when everybody around him. There's a good case to be made about all of them.

The only difference is we've seen less Schwellenbach, right? We've seen what, three quarters of a season, that's really all it is. Any pitches for the Braves, of course. Yeah, I think there's some organizational trust there, but to your point, right, we've seen a lot more Tyler Glass now, and the Glass now goes after Schwellenbach.

Their injury risks probably aren't that far apart. Schwellenbach's a converted shortstop, doesn't have as much experience pitching so you have a little bit of that kind of baked in there as well but yeah you Hunter Brown, Grayson Rodriguez, those guys are going after Schwellenbach. They've got more experience pitching and Hunter Brown's funny too. We love Hunter Brown on the show. I've liked him for a long time. I couldn't explain why things were so bad early last year. It's interesting that we talked about Bregman and just the kind of teammate he is, because Bregman gets a lot of credit

for being someone that was in the ear of Hunter Brown, saying, hey, you need something that keeps righties from cheating. You need to keep them honest on the inside part of the plate. Started throwing, I think it was the two-seamer up in the zone, and it just changed everything for them right? So if you remember how bad Hunter Brown's April was last year, there will be good players

that have terrible Aprils. Guys that we like they'll be horrible for at least a month and maybe yeah maybe Spencer Schmelenbach is that guy. I think it's important to just remember that's in the range of outcomes for guys that are good because it happens and it's frustrating and it's hard to manage it in season, especially in 10 and 12 team leagues. There were definitely 12 team leagues where you looked at your roster and said, Hunter Brown is my worst player right now.

I have to cut this guy. I can't justify holding on to him in late April. And then someone else reaped the benefits of the player that you liked from the very beginning. Yeah, I mean, thankfully, I was on the same page with you guys, it was a big Hunter Brown guy. So it was almost like a, it really stung, right? When he had that outing where, I mean, the guy just couldn't get an out and I don't think he even was a full inning, right?

And we allowed, yeah. And so that is really tough to come to overcome and he did it and he did it in spades. He was very consistent, I believe, from May or June on, just incredible and the guy that we expected him to be, but that damage was done. And so we've been doing this for so many years, right? And we know, we trust our instincts, we trust what we see,

and if we realize that he's not hurt and just something's wrong, he's a professional, he'll adjust, we're not gonna go running, first of all, we're not gonna run a social media and be like, this guy stinks, and then we're also not gonna be just dropping him off our fantasy teams, you know, guy that you're drafting with a top 10 pick.

So I'm glad it all worked out, it's just another lesson for us to not overreact to just one small thing. But when you spend your whole off season essentially touting George Kirby and Hunter Brown, and they both like deliver, you know, 20 earned runs in like a three day span. It definitely has its sting, that's for sure.

They will rattle anyone, even if you've done it for a long time. But yeah, since that start, so it's a nine, it was nine earned runs in two thirds of an inning for Hunter Brown on April 11th against the Royals. And then from that start forward, so April 16th on, 288 ERA, 115 whip, nine and a half Ks per nine, 11 wins in 162 in the third innings, 171 Ks, like everything you needed. He was basically an ace from that point forward, which I think is why everyone looks at him now and says, yeah, he's pretty much an ace now,

but he's not priced like one. So I would say that Hunter Brown also fits into that Spencer Schwellenbach guy who's going to move up boards over the course of draft season he's not gonna be as cheap in main events as he has been up to this point in draft season probably slap a sticker like that on Grayson Rodriguez too I think he's gonna catch a little bit of spring helium once we get a few turns through the Grapefruit League rotation. Let's get to a few fallers.

I know you probably don't have infinite time. We're not gonna make a two hour episode today. That would be ridiculous. It'd be fun. I would enjoy it. But we got stuff we gotta get to. So some fallers. Okay, Okunia's down 11 spots in 80 piece

and started draft season. Timetable and his comments about maybe being less aggressive on the base paths. Are you in though on Okununa at the end of round two in a situation where there's an overall prize? Are you looking at him and saying you know what? But what could go right is still really good or are you saying the projections cannot account for the information most projections? That just simply cannot account for what we now have been told about Ronald Acuna jr. Yeah, no I can't take him there.

And so I'm not going to end up with a lot of Acuna. It's some of the best ball contests where you're entering a whole bunch for 10 bucks a pop. I mean, those are the places where I don't mind grabbing Acuna, even some gladiators prior. Let's mix it up. It's my 15th team. Let me get some Acuna in here.

But when it comes to the bigger money leagues, I can't do it. And listen, that can be proven wrong. But also, I want to be careful of compounding risk. I am more of an overall player. What that means is I'm, I'm willing to sort of absorb some more risk, because I trust myself during the season to manage my lineup and optimize it and then also, you know, do well in free agent, in the free agent waiver process. And so I'm going to be taking riskier players on my team and I can't have my entire team full of risk. And so I have to pick my spots. So unfortunately he's not one of them and a lot of it has to do with the price.

If it was a fourth round, which obviously isn't happening, then of course I'd absolutely consider it, but not where he's going there. So if players are moving up, players have to move down. It's just the way the laws of ADP work but George Kirby and Jacob deGrom both down 12 spots since the start of draft season seems kind of weird doesn't it? Is there anything to keep you away from either one of those guys the possible sp1 around pick 50? So I think part of that has to do with I don't know in these 12 teamers, I think we've

seen maybe some of the closers come up. There's some other guys that have popped up in around there. So a lot of it isn't about them per se. It's just certain priorities of drafters are changing where, and especially in the 12 team OCs, the starting pitchers just go a little bit later anyways. So I like both, obviously for different reasons. I think this could be the best season of Kirby's career. At least that's what I'm hoping for. And even if there isn't any uptick in with the strikeout rate, which is usually the reason why people are like, ah, well, there's just so much firepower with strikeouts in these ranges. Like why, why am I going to take Kirby? But he's worth it because the ratios, the area and whip is they're the most underappreciated and the scarcest. It's so important. Like the guy that has a two,

three percent walk rate, it's unheard of. You get an anchor like that on your team. That's fantastic. Jacob deGrom, of course, much riskier and hasn't done anything or had meaningful fantasy impact in five years. But to me, he's healthy now, just like Chris Sale was at this point last year. People didn't wanna buy in on Chris Sale, you're getting him in the mid hundreds, and look, there you go, SP2 overall last season. So it's possible with de Grom.

I don't think anyone's projecting for more than 130, even 140 innings, but it doesn't matter. If you get that, even that many innings, and you're paying a fourth round price, like you're going to get profit out of him. He's not gonna all of a sudden suck. That's Jacob deGrom. I mean, deGrom, it looked like the stuff

was mostly back last year in the brief time post surgery. So it was just good to see him get even 10 innings back last year, right? So I think you treat him like an older version of Tyler Glass now. You're like on a per start basis, it's going to be really good. And as long as you are a competent player

at finding what you need in the waiver wire, then you can take that risk. If you're bad at that, maybe don't take that risk. That's probably the, like play to your strengths in this case because it makes sense value wise based on what he should do for projection. And you're right, this could be the best year from Kirby. So I like that call as well.

Probably nothing about those two guys in particular causing the fall, as you said. The types of drafts being done changes things a little bit. I'm curious where you fall on Felix Bautista. He probably is ready for opening day based on timetables even though he's a little behind the spring. Relievers can catch up and we talk a lot about starters and worrying about them post-TJ. We talk less about the relievers coming back. Is Bautista in your circle of trust among the closers that you want if you're trying to find a closer one at a discount?

He was the first closer I drafted back when I entered my first draft in November. Of course a lot has changed since then, but has it really? I think what it is is our outlook of how things are changing. So he's falling just based on the fact that the Orioles are doing what they're supposed to do, which is not rushing him back taking it easy It has been a very long time since the surgery and his recovery and and so I think he'll be fine I think this is the right move This is how you kind of help to preserve him over the year

And I think we might be looking at a potential deal here at a guy who was just a dynamic closer two seasons ago could easily Be a top three, five guy, but the market is sort of being slow played, I guess. And so because of that, we're getting, I think a little bit of a deal. Of course, all bets are off and hurts his arm or something. You just never know, this is all right. It's all baseball.

We can't really predict any of it. We can't predict tomorrow, let alone health of the player over a season. So, but I like him where he's going. If he's gonna continue to fall, I'm gonna probably continue to buy. More likely I like him where he's going. If he's going to continue to fall, I'm going to probably continue to buy. More likely I get him now at the slight discount than it was that I was going to take him ahead of guys who weren't recapping over the last couple of months.

So happily taking the discount on Bautista where I can because I think he's clearly the guy in Baltimore. Roki Sasaki down 20 picks since December? What's going on with that? Are you in on Roki? I'm kind of the biggest Rokey pusher there is. Like if Rokey was a drug, I'm your dealer. You're selling all the Rokey.

Oh yeah, I mean, he was top five in pitching projections, mine. And that's with like 140 innings or something. Just the numbers, the ratios popped out so nicely. And even through social media, I'm saying like draft, rookie draft, rookie, this is before he signed with the Dodgers. And then I'm saying, Roky's going to sign with the Dodgers, get Roky. What has happened is, well, first of all, I'm trying to make Fetch happen.

People don't want, you know, Fetch it's whatever, you know, then I'll enjoy it to myself, hopefully, but now he's fallen to the point where, I mean, I think he's a fantastic deal and what it is is just around the conversation of that he may be considered Tommy John or you remember that conversation from a couple of weeks ago. That is is what it is. It's between that and maybe thinking they're going to be babying him or whatever. And then I think in some like, you know, practice like Kyle Teal hit like a bomb off of him

or something like that. So I don't know. I think I think the hate has, like Kyle Teal hit a bomb off of him or something like that. So I don't know. I think the hate has gone a little too far. And so if you're getting Roki Sasaki at like 100, 120, to me it's a deal. I don't have him anymore as a top five. I did sort of adjust a little bit some of the rate stats to be a little bit more, I guess, realistic. So he's closer to like a three ERA guy as opposed to like the two six ridiculous degromness that was, I guess, over projecting, you could say.

But yeah, I like him. He's one of my highest roster pitchers. You can almost stack Dodgers pitchers right now in some leagues because they're priced down, which is something I started to do in TOW wars a little bit a couple of days ago. Unlimited I.L. in TOW wars, too. It's like, well, it's built to do this. Like NFBC stacking the Dodgers pitchers might cause some pain if they're all hurt at the same time,

you're gonna have some difficult decisions to make. But if you have I.L. spots, you gotta think a lot about the prices you're getting on that group right now. How about this group, the Rays pitchers? Talked about Steinbrenner Field, home games being there. It's gonna hurt. It's gonna hurt the pitchers.

It's an easier place to hit. We know the trop boosts strikeouts. It suppresses offense as a whole. Looking at this group, Shane McClanahan, he's moved down a little bit. I think it's like seven spots he's fallen in the last month. 19 spots since draft season started. So he's available at pick 130. The news on him has been good. They said 150 ish innings are possible. So you kind of have a good enough sense of his workload post second TJ where you know you look at that. That'll work at that price point.

Pepeo's down almost 20 picks since draft season started. Even Pete Fairbanks in the bullpen down about 30 picks in the draft season started. Shane Boss down about 40. Correcting for the ballpark makes sense. Is the market over-correcting on raised pitching and possibly over-correcting the other way on raised bats right now? It's very possible. We've known this fact for a couple of months and the market has been moving on,

the hitters have been moving up, specifically Caminero, and then the pitchers have moved down ever so slightly. The fact that Pete Fairbanks hasn't been traded is a reason why he's actually now being drafted again. I remember there was a time where people wouldn't touch him at 180 overall and it's a, et cetera, et cetera. And now you can't get him at 150.

It's funny how that works. And then as soon as you do take him at 150, he'll get traded. But the arms, I mean the starting pitchers, I really liked them all. Despite the park, maybe it's just like, I don't know what bias I have, but I like these guys. And maybe I still think they're pitching in the trop. You know, I just can't get over the fact that they're gonna be in this new place

and then I'll be in for a rude awakening. But again, they're not gonna pitch all their starts there. These are players that, after McClanahan, if you're looking at like, Baas, Pepio, even Taj Bradley, they're gonna be drafted in a range, like after after pick 150 where you'll have some pitching depth. So there are opportunities where you can bench them and manage leaks. So you can get around certain things, but if they're on it, I mean, the skills are phenomenal for all these guys. So I think it's hopefully a bright future.

I could just be drinking my own cool way. Yeah, but it's also possible that the initial ADPs and projections and expectations were wrong to begin with. They may have been underpriced even before we had any news of the damage of the trop, right? Like, so you may have been getting a deal and now you're getting an even better deal because everything was wrong from the start. And I think that's maybe part of why you can look at those guys and say, wait, wait, no, I do like them. They're good pitchers. They should be able to handle a more difficult a more hitter friendly environment so I've been trying to scoop up some raised

pitchers again at this discount last question for today covered a lot of ground with the risers and fallers had some other stuff we were putting the run down we'll save that for a different day who is the most overvalued player and if you have more than one I'm sure our listeners will be happy to hear more than one but who are the most overvalued player? And if you have more than one, I'm sure our listeners will be happy to hear more than one. But who are the most overvalued players to you right now going inside the top 75 by 80 piece first five rounds of a 15 team league draft? Oh, man, in the top 75, it's tough. I think I'm going to get some backlash from it, especially from my rival city

of San Diego. By the way, I do love the city of San Diego much more than my own city of Los Angeles. It is nothing personal, but it is Jackson Merrill. Oh, really? Who to me, yeah, I mean, listen, I like Jackson Merrill a lot. That clutch as a rookie, to be so productive, to just be a good hitter, have speed,

a little bit of everything is amazing. But I'm always cautious about paying full value and then some for a guy that's only done it once. And we're talking like 20, 22 overall, like very expensive price. In NFPC drafts, that would mean taking him over a Zach Wheeler, an ace starting pitcher who gets it done every year, a Logan Gilbert,

over possibly even Jackson Churio, who's sometimes going around that range, over Jaren Duran, who I'm not even a huge fan of. When I'm looking at, we were talking about Wyatt Langford earlier, and if Wyatt Langford is going two rounds later, I'd rather have Wyatt Langford in the fourth than Jackson Merrill in the second, because I think Langford could beat him straight up. Same thing with Michael Harris. And there's just a lot of outfielders. So it's, for me, it's just a matter of like, build, construction.

He just hasn't fit into my plans and it's nothing personal. I really like Jackson Merrill. I wish him all the best. Hope he succeeds. Hope he has a great year. But I don't see a better season than what he had last season. I think that's a surprising name.

I was definitely, I don't know, man. I just, I felt like everybody liked Jackson Merrill coming off of last year. Not necessarily that like he's your must have player in the second round, but more in that I don't think I've encountered anyone who wasn't buying in on like a repeat or even even another small step forward this year. I know there were some improvements in the second half too where he was making a little more hard contact and maybe showing more of a 30 home run future

than what we expected from him as a prospect. That's the funny thing about Jackson Merrill is that nothing you see from him as a prospect, power-wise, really looks like what we saw in his rookie season. That's the impressive part. He's been so young for the level everywhere he's played. Love that as a good, choosing your own guy answer to that question for sure. I'm finding Jaren Duran is the guy that, I don't know if he's overvalued or if I just don't want to build teams with him and I can't even pin down exactly what it is that's bothering me about Jaren Duran. I don't know if it's because of the age of his breakout. I mean he was 27 last year. He turned

28 in September. I think the problem I had was like before last season the power wasn't consistent and he was a bad defender and I'm trying to decide how sticky his improvements defensively are, because it's the type of thing where if he sustains it, then he's fine through slumps. And for as early as he's going, he shouldn't have any questions about playing time, which I don't think he actually does.

But if we're talking about the Red Sox being more crowded, and Roman Anthony being part of that mix, there has to be a scenario in which Jaron Duran plays less than every single day because they have so much depth and so many ways they can line things up, right? So maybe it's just something along those lines that is messing with me. Everything's good on paper last year. 21% K-rate, 21 homers, 34 steals, didn't chase a ton, career high barrel rate at 9.1%. I don't know, man. Maybe it's the projections being just kinda,

for a slash line anyway, being kinda just okay for a second rounder. The bad ex has 269, 333, 454 down, but because he's gonna hit 20 homers and steal 33 bases, he still fits in the second round. It feels like a player that's maybe a round or two overpriced relative to who he is at his true talent core. And I don't want to pay the tax for how good he was last year

because he could take a small step back, still be really good and not return enough value for round two. I personally take a huge L on Jaren Duran because I was out on him last year at his price, which was starting to creep up to 120, 130 and I just was not in on him. The one thing that I'm at least good at is to be able to separate personal from the analytics and analysis and you take the L, you don't double down. And that's not what I'm doing.

I'm with you exactly. Like if you were to ask me a second player after Jackson Merrill not interested in it's Jaren Durant and it's just a pure You know, it's a value thing. It's the fact that there are again similar outfielders where Jackson Merrill and Jaren Durant going that are going around or two later that I like that I feel can easily beat both of those guys out and it's nothing against those two there They're really solid but Jaren Durant earned first round fantasy value last year do I think he earns first or second round this year I don't think so I

think it's possible but I just don't think so because everything just has to go absolutely right again perfectly so and we have to be picky and choosy you only get one second round pick and they're like you know 15 to 20 options so if that's the case those are those are two guys I'm not taking. Our toss up from maybe a month or so ago by ADP was Jazz Chisholm versus Jaren Duran. I said, look, Jazz has a brutal injury history, but Jaren Duran has an injury history too

that's not particularly good. And Jazz in Yankee Stadium was a different player. He also stole more bases on a per game basis after the trade. I just saw more ways for Jazz to keep trending up than I saw ways for Jaren Durand to maintain the level he reached last year. Again, even if he's very, very good.

I'm sure we're gonna get some shade from Red Sox Nation for that call. It's always the downside of taking swipes at those players, but look, it's just a, I don't want him where he goes thing. It doesn't mean he's bad. All right, Vlad, before we let you go, what do you have at FTN right now?

A lot of great new tools. Your own projections are there, which is awesome because I've talked a lot about wanting to have better playing time projections, or at least my own, or something unique. You can be unique, but you also have to be good, and you are very good at projecting playing time. Yeah, thank you.

Yeah, ftnfantasy.com. We just have a suite of tools in addition to all the content, the rankings and everything that I'm updating, but I'm in the database of my own model, the VDP, it stands for value draft position within that model. And I'm adjusting playing time based on actionable news. And that in turn changes the values

of these players, not just the players themselves, but of the entire league environment, based on whatever settings that you want to choose. And the way to do that is we have this brand new custom, it's a custom rankings and projections tool. And with that, you can go in there, you can set your points Points or a roto you can set your percentage split between hitters and pitchers You can choose you know the VDP model or the FTN model was you know, obviously is fueled You know more data centric driven and you get the choice of that You can you know set default for points leagues from CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, whatever these sites just see their default scoring. And so, yeah, I mean, it's just a great system, but I'm going in there and adjusting all this playing time, you know, every day. I'm not going to adjust because,

you know, I was like, oh, Kyle Teal hit two home runs in a spring training game. I'm not going to bump him 100, you know, played appearances, whatever, but we're making, you know, the Freddie Freeman thing. There's obviously the fact that he's not going to play day games, after night games, things like that, and getting treatment on his ankle through the first half of the season. That's actionable. That's something that requires a little bit of bump, but yeah, we're just grinding over here just like you are. So yeah, FDN Fantasy, come, come and join the family. We will take great care of you and help you win your league. All right. Be sure to sign up up get that subscription today follow Vlad on social. RotoGut everywhere is that your handle everywhere you go? I figured you

kept that BlueSkyX wherever people want to find you you'll be you'll be there and again join the rates and barrels discord if you haven't done so already you got a mailbag channel send some mailbag questions in we're gonna take some of those on Monday's episode Eno's back from assignment on Monday. Thanks to our producer Brian Smith for putting this episode together, thanks to Vlad for taking the time to join me today, that's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels, we're back with you on Monday.