Rates & Barrels - Finale Strategy, Triston McKenzie's Big Step Forward & the Impact of Rule Changes on Catchers

Episode Date: September 26, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss a few more difficult aspects of endgame strategy with just 10 days left to play in the 2022 fantasy baseball season. Plus, they examine the long-term outlook for Triston McKenzie on the heels of his breakout, optimism about Brandon Marsh's first full campaign in Philadelphia, and the impact of rule changes on how catchers might be valued in the long run.  Rundown 5:12 Endgame Strategy: Protecting Ratios v. Chasing Wins and/or Strikeouts 11:56 Putting on Your Opponents' Shoes 17:25 Fighting Back Against Instincts, Late FOMO 23:22 Triston McKenzie's Long-Term Outlook 29:25 Does a Pitcher's Frame/Body Type Matter? 36:06 Are Top-End Speedsters More Desirable in H2H Leagues? 41:29 Brandon Marsh & Mickey Moniak in New Organizations 48:08 Rule Changes & Impact on Catchers Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Monday, September 26th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we'll talk about some endgame strategies. We're now into the final 10 days of this fantasy baseball season. It's hard to believe, but we've made it. And navigating these last few days actually leads to some pretty quirky decisions that can be pretty challenging. If you're relatively new, even if you've played for a long time, you end up making these decisions that are almost sort of counterintuitive. So we'll talk about a few of those unique challenges. We've got a bunch of great mailbag questions to get to, some with some longer-term implications.

But we're at that point in the season where if you play in a Keeper or Dynasty League, you're starting to think about the future. I think we might even squeeze in some Beer of the Week talk at some point on this episode as well. So, you know, we begin with our usual simple Monday question. How was your weekend? It was great. It was great. Managed to go to Tornado, the best beer bar ever. And also went up for a wedding in Santa Rosa.

So that was fun. You know, dancing to cheesy songs. This one, which not all weddings do, had karaoke in it. Oh, that's a risky maneuver. I mean, you have to know the people you're inviting. You have to know there are more good performers than bad performers in that group well i don't know which one i was but i definitely performed what did you perform i tried to do uh the one that didn't go so well was prince's let's let's go crazy

yeah that's a tough one man prince is tough i just say i don't know if there's an easy prince song for karaoke is there and then what's the I was going to say, I don't know if there's an easy Prince song for karaoke. Is there? And then what's the, the Paul Simon song? Mama don't give my coat of chrome. It was funny because, uh,

there was like, uh, a lot of words and I stopped singing them. And I just went around in the background going, mama, don't give my coat of chrome away. I just kept saying that over and over again. Like,

I think it worked a little bit. The other person, the other person was singing the rest of the words. Oh, I just kept saying that over and over again. I think it worked a little bit. The other person was singing the rest of the words. I ended up being a background singer energy guy. Okay, so you went up there with other people. Yeah, which made it better because you can harmonize and make it sound a little bit better. And then it brings energy up there. Oh, and we did the Black Eyed Peas, Tonight's the Night.

I did a lot of jumping around. Yeah, you got the crowd hyped up. It's important. You need a hype person on stage. Wow. I just remembered I've been to at least one wedding where there was karaoke. And I was in Sheboygan first it was a sheboygan wedding was awesome the the song i remember most i saw a bunch of my wife's aunts and uncles and my in-laws

got up on stage they did the big group thing very smart and it was the the b-52s song oh yeah uh love shack and all i can remember is one of my wife's aunts just hammer drunk just doing the the female vocalist woo part that's it on repeat that was her thing that was what she decided she was gonna do so there were a lot of woos in that rendition of Love Shack. It was just before camera phones were good too. So it was just in that sweet spot in history where you could make a total fool of yourself. Didn't have pictures of it all. Yeah, we might have some really grainy video

on someone's old phone somewhere, but I think it's been lost. It's in a drawer somewhere and there's no charger for the phone took video of me you know one of the things too is like karaoke you know in koreatown in the middle you know at 3 a.m is very different with like five people and like a little boot you know that sort of karaoke is very different than uh karaoke at a wedding because my go-tos are mostly like, uh, Pearl jam.

That's not wedding karaoke at all. Huh? That's not wedding karaoke. That's not wedding karaoke. No, I was like, um, they were like,

what do you want to do? I was like, uh, crap. I'm not going to do not, not, not, not one,

not that one, not that. Oh no. What am I going to do? So that's why I just sort of jumped in with other groups. Yeah. I do think I have to have a karaoke song prepared. You got to be ready.

I've never been thrust into the situation. Prince is nice and energetic, but there's words, and he sings them well. And if you don't actually sing them well, the song kind of isn't as good. I think you can just disappoint people really quickly trying to sing a Prince song in karaoke. Yeah, that's what happened. That's fun. That's a fun thing to do, to have that at a wedding. Glad you had a good time. Let's talk about end game strategy. This was inspired by a question from one of our listeners, Clinton, also inspired by my own staring at

lineups and trying to squeeze stolen bases out of every last corner of my bench, hoping for the ultimate three to four steal week from a player who might have three or four steals in the last month. But hey, we dream, right? We hope, We wish. We hope that things go the way that we want. This particular question from Clinton was about ratios. He wrote in after having a rough week in a 5x5 15 team at Roto League. Dropped 10 points down to second place after beginning in first. And he's wondering if he misplayed the situation or if he just had some bad luck so wins were really tight in the league he put a few streamers in to chase the wins

and had some ratio flexibility but his streamers were clunkers he threw jose suarez and wade miley and drew smiley and then his other starters i think george kirby corbin burns ross stripling didn't have particularly good weeks either so the question boiled down to if you're in first place and you're top three in ratios, should you stop chasing pitching and try and consolidate with relievers instead, right? Should you go into protect ratios mode by just shrinking the number of innings that your team is throwing? You know you're going to sacrifice some strikeouts and some win potential along the way by doing that. So how do you make that decision? How do you find that balance? Yeah, I'm not sure I have it 100%.

I think, I don't know, I don't think that I made all the right decisions this year down the stretch. And I'm worried that it was a bad process. I think the hardest part is strikeouts. this year down the stretch and and i'm worried that it was bad process that i think that's hardest part is strikeouts if you start doing the reliever thing you can there's more and other people are streaming on top of that there's more volatility in that than you may expect right like you may be like oh i've got 100ks on this guy and let's say it's uh there's it's september 1st right i've got 100ks on second place you know i've got five wins on second place

i should shut it down you know and protect my ratios well the ratios don't move are not as volatile at five months in right and you doing that you can lose those kinds of leads over over five weeks you know so uh especially depending on how how aggressive you are so i spent a lot of the year being like i have no choice but to keep chasing Ks even though I'm not first in Ks. You know what I mean? Like I, even though I would like to also chase saves. So I ended up with a lot of like toes in the water in both. And I feel like being aggressive and like just switching over is the better call. I think being aggressive is the easier choice to make. I think chasing in that case is a little, like your brain can do that more logically because you say, well,

I know I'm going to get more strikeouts if I throw these mediocre two-start pitchers and if I go from seven starters and two relievers in my lineup to nine starters or eight and one or whatever that shift is. It's easier to process all of that. No, what I was saying was that i was i

did both i would try to do both you tried to have six i tried to have three relievers and six guys with two starters in there right my thinking was i gotta keep chasing k's because there's points to be had there um and but i also want saves and so the only way to do that is to have as many two starters in there and also still have three relievers i don't think it served me that well because you probably just didn't do what you wanted to do right you didn't sort of you didn't chilled enough water a little bit yeah well i think the part of it you have to think about regardless of whether you're protecting ratios or chasing volume is you have to look at how close the other categories are i mean i think you. Ratios don't move a lot right now,

but they can still be so close that every potential inning can swing them. Like you could be in a virtual tie. Like if you're talking about like 0.05 of ERA or 0.2 or 0.3 of WIP, that might not change that quickly, especially not two or three weeks left. Right.

But if you do look, you'll see sometimes, oh, I'm in a virtual tie here. We're talking about, it's probably like 0.005. That's separating us. So that can change. I mean, a lot of times it's just, you should think that it should be a math question, right? You should just be like,

oh, I have three points available to me if I do this oh, I have three points available to me if I do this, and I have two points available to me if I do this. But a lot of times there is intercorrelation between stats, obviously. So it's like if you could say, well, I have... This is what ended up with a lot of my leagues is, I have two or three points I can get in wins, and I have two or three points I can get in saves. Right?

So the one I decide on, wins or saves, has to do with how I'm doing in Ks. If you can lose ground in strikeouts, or if you can make up ground, you're going to push more for starters because you don't want to drop in that category and you want to take the possibility of even going up in that category if it's there yeah but if you're winning k's or if you're buried in k's or it's just solid like where i am i'm just not going up or down yeah 30 or 40 k's between you

and the next team you can afford to go more reliever heavy because that team behind you might get 20 more Ks than you this week, but the gap is 30 or 40, so you're okay. So it's like the size of the gaps in the standings is really important in making these decisions as far as pushing versus holding on whichever categories you need. And then there's the last thing that this is, this is maybe a little bit too meta is the people you drop now are in the waiver pool and your opponents can pick them up. So like,

let's say you're like, Oh, saves or steals. The only thing that mattered to me on offense, you know, I don't need homers. I'm first in homers. I don't care. I'm going you know i don't need homers i'm first in homers i don't care i'm gonna drop these guys that hit homers for people who stay and steal

steal bags now you're giving your opponent an opportunity to pick up a guy who hits homers and maybe they can't catch you but maybe they can catch the guy in front of them so if the guy is the guy you dropped is too good you're helping your opponents that's the other part of the end game that I've tried to be a little more in tune with in the last few weeks I've cared about this

in the past but I'm looking to see the teams around me, the teams that are jockeying in overall position with me, where are they vulnerable and what kind of lineup are they setting right now because then i know oh they they went seven starters and two relievers they're they're not punting saves or they have punted saves so they're gonna they're gonna make up more ground in case so then i have to react to that like that's it's playing defense against them did you also recommend like looking at uh the weekly transactions that weren't even your own

also you should do that too saying that because then you can get it that going into the follow like this week if you see your opponent picked up three or four starters and those are either two start pitchers or maybe they've just got cake matchups you can kind of see oh they're they're chasing wins or they're they're chasing wins and k's It's also just good to see if they – and if they do the thing where like they're chasing stolen bases and they dropped a guy who has real power, you'll be able to see that a week early and know that maybe I can get this power guy later. Yeah. And I feel like in some ways all these things we're talking about can just be overwhelming because you're trying to sit there on a Monday morning, a regular day. You have to think about like, what's the best lineup guys for you and your team.

So a lot of times it's just like, let me be myopic and just think about my team because there's so much to do on my team, you know, but then you got to also think about what they're doing on their team. So for Clinton's question, the thing that stood out to me is he mentioned Suarez, Miley and Smiley. This is a 15-team Roto League.

Those guys are all right in the range of streamers you'd think about in those leagues. I streamed Miley last week. I think he had one good start, one bad start week. Right. And it might have been net negative for the ratios, even if it was one good, one bad. But I was chasing wins man all you cared about was that w i think you got one that group is just right on that borderline of yeah if you need to keep playing for volume i think they were all in spots where you probably you probably weren't wrong by process to throw

them out there even though they're they're not guys you'd want in your lineup all the time so i i think this is a little more bad luck than you wouldn't think yeah you wouldn't necessarily think that all those guys would blow up in one week and and he got a little bit screwed by his like his studs blowing up too yeah yeah you're not really me expecting all the guys to be bad then it wouldn't have mattered so much if smiley gave up some runs so i don't think this was bad process i think you can definitely cost yourself points in those counting stats if you go overboard getting too reliever heavy trying to protect ratios i know there are occasions where you have to do something like that.

This, based on the information we have, didn't really seem like one of them. Are there any other endgame problems you've run into? Because the pitching stuff is probably the most common of all. Have you had any other issues? Like for me, I'm just trying to, like I said earlier, I'm trying to milk stolen bases out of every corner of my roster. So that's leading me to take players. I get a 15-team league.

David Peralta is on my bench this week. Not a guy that I'd ordinarily sit based on all the other factors, my lineup, matchups, all that kind of stuff, number of games. But because he seems like one of the players on my roster least likely to offer me a stolen base this week he ended up sitting right so that that was the type of decision i found myself making in a few places but just with speed alone yeah you know the the way that's that uh steals are right now um you know chasing steals you can end up like rostering some not great players i'm i'm in a daily league, our podcast league. I mean, I'm in a battle with Steven Nesbitt for first place. And I do want steals,

but I ended up picking guys up like Bobby Dahlbeck for today's game because I just didn't like want to pick up some of the players that, like there's four games today. And, you know, some of those pitchers are gossman and severino it's like i'm not i'm not itching to like you know take a slap slap happy little like no power guy throw him against louis severino hope he gets one steal you know goes one for four with one steal or something but um so you know the your needs plus what's actually available to you or it's very interesting also i think there's um a psychological thing i run into i did not drop julie rodriguez off my main

and i kind of did the math and was like oh oh, but he could be back for maybe two games. I think he could be back around that last series of the year. The last partial week. Yeah. And he would be the best player I could get. But then there's also, I'm in second place in my main because of this guy like i don't know i probably screwed up i probably should have just dropped him

but but i you know i think i think that's also a thing that's tough with these these this decision you're talking about and that the thing that we're talking about like there's a balance between dropping a good guy onto the wire because uh he doesn't fit what you're trying to do at the end of the season. And then our psychological attachment to guys because either they're the reason you got where you are or they're just too good to drop. Like a struggling veteran at the end of the season that doesn't even, if he did get it going, like a Josh Donaldson. You're like, well, I don't even need power, but, you know, is he too good to drop? And so there is a, I think it's because I play enough Dynasty where I have this like, oh, I can't, that guy's too good to drop. Like he's a good player.

He's just having a bad season. Well, if he's having a bad season, then you just got to drop him, dude. In a redraft, it's only about this season. Well, if he's having a bad season, then you just gotta drop him, dude. In a redraft, it's only about this season. Yeah. The tough one about dropping a player like Julio Rodriguez is if you get that partial week, let's say you dropped him this week,

and you do find out going into the weekend he's gonna come back for the final series. You get a chance to bid on him again in leagues that are running another fab on Sunday, and those are a thing. You have to make sure you've got enough fab left to get him back though if you need him back if you want him back so you have to manage that aspect of the end game too and there are some teams that still have a lot of money left and you never know if if they're hanging around maybe they've got a shot at 15 bucks they have left on your on your guy right and the keeper and then

hulu rodriguez steals a base for them and they and they they go past you in the standings that does seem like our brains playing tricks on us how unrealistic fomo yeah how likely is that you have to that that's the hardest thing about baseball is like you know uh about about fantasy i think, and just in general, is that we're all trying to guess the likelihood of these different events happening. In tiny slivers of playing time. Yeah, I think it's almost easier over the course of the season to be like,

oh yeah, this guy will be good over the course of the season. I think I'm better at drafting than in-game, than in-season, because I get, maybe it takes me too long to drop a guy who's just having a terrible season. I think that probably happens to me. I'm just like, but he was projected to do this.

Well, five, six weeks into the season, sometimes you can already tell somebody's having a bad season. On the other hand, we wrote off Brian Reynolds to an extent. And when I talked to him about it, like i don't know i was like how did you get back on track he's like i don't know man it's just baseball so i think yeah i think the power the power is where he's proved you the most wrong based on what we're talking about strikeout he got the strikeout right back in check back in. The average is still a little light, but yeah, I think that was one of those

early season things where you try. We wanted to be right. We wanted to say, oh, wait a minute. This isn't normal, and this is a big skills loss, and if you split the difference between what he's doing and what he's done in the past, he's still going to be here, and it's a

relative bad year for him in strikeout, right's still going to be here. It's a relative bad year for him in strikeout. If you take 2020 off the ledger, this is still the highest strikeout rate of Brian Reynolds' career. It's the second worst. That's sort of what we were saying. On the other hand,

I'm going to do a game log thing now. What exactly was that episode? It was May, maybe mid-May, probably. I'll just pick mid-May. I'll just do May 15th to now. 23% strikeout rate. That's what he's had for the season,

but the O-swing is still up 35.3%. The barrel rate is down 7.7%. 23% of the strikeout rate is up from last year. It's still an L. I'm not trying to say that we were right. But he hit.292 with 19 homers since the end of May.

What we will do is go back through positions and talk about who we missed on, who we liked, and who was good, and do kind of a positional review. That is, I think, what we've settled on for what we will do during the playoffs. That, I think, will always encompass our strategies and sort of look back to our teams and what worked and what didn't because we'll be just doing it by position. And I think that's also a good way to incorporate news that's happening in the playoffs,

because those two things kind of go naturally. And it pairs pretty well with what we'll be doing in January and February, which is positional previews. It's kind of, you know, you got to look back before you can look forward. So when we do that, we'll take some L's. That's literally the exact thing I was going to say. If you stop talking one sentence sooner, I was going to say,

you got to look back before you can look forward. Is that some kind of cliche that we're now, we're all just saying around here on this show or even just in fantasy podcast land in general? I don't know but thanks for the the question clinton i think that's a topic that you know a lot of us struggle with even even some of us who played for a long time but still trying to figure out how to how to manage the end game carefully i think the for some reason in my head when i think about managing the end of the season

in fantasy baseball i i picture a curling match, a really close curling match. And it's like one of the last possible ends of the match. And all the rocks are out there and we're on the last rocks or we're on the hammer. And it's like, it's all coming down to this one, really difficult shot that you have to just, just right. If you get it just right, you can win. I think that's the sort of internal pressure. Very strange analogy, but that's what I've envisioned for some reason as I try to make these choices. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you.

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Let's get to some other questions that came in. We got a question about Tristan McKenzie. This came in from Jake. Jake's curious to know how we feel about McKenzie as we approach the offseason. Look at the pitching model. I see his location plus and pitching plus been pretty consistent throughout the year, and his stuff plus has risen. But all three values are just a bit above league average.

Looking at his stack cast numbers, I'm a little nervous about his peripherals. He's giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Do you consider him a sell-high player in Dynasty, or would you hold on? I've got some solid pitching depth and an abysmal offense, and McKenzie tops my list of sell-high candidates. Bonus question, if you were to dangle McKenzie, what kind of hitter value would you be looking for in return? Last season, I sold high on Ranger Suarez and got Alec Thomas and Luis Garcia in Houston for Ian Happ. We'll be looking for something similar with McKenzie.

Thanks for everything this season. Cheers, Jake. So first part of the question, what do you make of Tristan McKenzie based on what he's done over a full season? I think the recurring tagline that I had on McKenzie was, can you do it for a full season? Very small frame, tall, but skinny. And what happens is the innings pile up. And I think he's answered the, can he hold up for a full season question? He's done that. 180 in the third innings, get a few more in these final couple starts. Skills have looked good. A little bit of a home run issue, but this overall is a very good pitcher,

even though everything across the board is just a little bit above league average in the model. Is this as good as it gets? Is this sustainable? How would you play it with McKenzie? Unfortunately, I think that there are things beyond Tristan McKenzie's own talent that are important to this discussion. And they're hard to kind of parse. Because, for example, he has the best combination of stuff plus and I don't know if he has the best pitching plus. But he has the best stuff plus between him, Shane Bieber, and Kakao Quantrill. Now, I have to bring those up because they're going to feature prominently in the pitcher l's uh category i might do a piece this week about uh guys i missed on um and why um and i don't know if it's uh like it could just be a model failure that they've got

something that they've modeled out that they're better at. I mean, they're a major league team. But I tend to sometimes look at something like this. Team BABIP allowed. The top five in this are, A. who you might expect and B. the most progressive organizations in baseball the Dodgers number 1 with a.253 Babbitt Balloud

the Astros number 2 with a.268 Babbitt Balloud the Yankees number 3 with a.268 Babbitt the Rays number 4 with a.276 and then the Guardians number 5, were the 276. And then the Guardians, number five, were the 276. So, you know, we give these organizations credit for developing pitchers, but then we see Josiah Gray leave town and not be good for his new organization. You know? And I just have to ask myself,

do I think Cal Quantrill is an amazing pitcher of true talent? And there's no advanced stat that says he is. K-BB, Sierra, you know, all that stuff says maybe below average pitcher, you know? So, okay, there's some organizational aura here. That speaks well to him. However, what if it's shifting related? Well, we talked about the shift

and how modest some of the resulting benefits would be for a lot of hitters. So I think we would need to keep a reasonable cap on how negative the impact could be when we're talking about pitchers if if a is true then b must also be true but we're working on a prediction we're not working in certainty i also wonder if we're just working in a little bit of a post dips world here dips theory is defense independent pitching which is the idea that you know a pitcher can't control what happens on a ball in play which to the large part is true but i also know that these new models for example stuff plus and pitching plus are trained against runs allowed rather than trained against whiffs so early

early models were just what pitches get whiffs. So it was very strikeout sort of focused. But you've seen some of the wins this year in Pitching Plus have not been great strikeout artists. Talking about Urquidy, Wells, Rasmussen. There's been a fair amount of guys who've been really good with lower strikeout rates. So what if these organizations, and I know four of them, of the five,

have stuff plus numbers. So what if they train theirs against runs allowed and they've figured out that certain pitches, like for example, cutters just have a lower BABIP. There's a fair amount of cutters on these teams. Maybe they've just figured out certain combinations of locations and shapes of pitches that lead to low BABIPs. Is Tristan McKenzie going to be a guardian next year?

Yes. Does Tristan McKenzie have the best model numbers of any guardian? Yes. Do the guardians seem to outproduce their numbers every year? Yes. Is the shift going to change next year?

Yes. I would say he's not as clear a sell high as the other two names he mentioned. The other part of being wary of McKenzie, though, comes back to those longer-term durability concerns. And that just seems like a bias against a player's body type. Or maybe it's the bias preferring an Alec Manoa build in a starting pitcher. And if it's not an Alec Manoa build, then we're a little more skeptical.

However you want to frame it, that's the other part of what people worry about with McKenzie. Do you think that's good worry or do you think that's unnecessary worry? Well, you know, we have an ongoing joke with Paul Sporer who is, you know, kind of built like Chris Sale. That's the McKenzie sale. Yeah, Sporer has it. The joke is about Chris Sale is like, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah. You were yelling about how he was going to be injured. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Are you right if he gets injured like eight years later no you're not you're

not right because the people that were the most skeptical thought he was gonna break well before he actually did he broke oh i was right that's right almost like that pain guy that pain guy tweet when chris sale broke i told you Still not convinced that's actually a serious account. Still think it could be parody. If it's parody, it's awful. It's like the worst, grossest trolling that exists. Either way, I'm not happy. It's not good.

Parody or not, it's just a bad account. I mean, he threw 180 innings this year. He threw 140 last year. Within the current landscape, that's a workhorse, dude. Yeah. No, it absolutely is. Tristan McKenzie, for people who either don't have him on their roster or haven't thought about it this way yet,

has been in almost the top 20 starting pitcher this year just in terms of dollars earned based on the stats, right? So you look at him favorably alongside of Romper Valdez, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortez, Christian Javier, he's in that group. So when we're talking about where does he go next year, I think he's going to be treated like a pretty consistent, what, starting pitcher two? Probably in the 20 to 30 range amongst drafted starting pitchers. I don't think he's going to go later than what he has returned this season

because he has traits that everybody would like. Being in the AL Central, being in that organization, you listed off a large group of positive traits with Tristan McKenzie. I think the pros significantly outweigh the cons. Now, if you are in a situation where you feel like you got a lot of pitching, anytime you can trade excess pitching for a hitter, you should do it. It's not about McKenzie specifically. That's the only category I've got, really.

But I think if you're trading a young top 20, top 25 starting pitcher in a good organization with good matchups and good skills, you should expect a lot in return. I wonder if in a keeper league, if you do better aiming for a slightly older hitter, though, as opposed to a young hitter. You know, thinking about the Ranger for Alec Thomas swap and Garcia perhaps kind of like more like a mid-career sort of guy in half. But can you throw McKenzie?

Almost like the half one better. I mean, that fits what you're saying. Yeah. Instead of going for the prospect, go for someone who's more established. But McKenzie, what's the ceiling? Can you trade Tristan McKenzie for Alex Bregman in a keeper league right now? Is that doable?

If the needs of the person who has Bregman are opposite your own, is that a reasonable offer? So in my 12-team home league that I've had for you know 15 years or something um i was trying to trade away rowdy telez and willie adames i had o'neill cruz and jeremy pena and you know a lot of shortstop eligible guys and i just thought this is this is a good idea i don't know i didn't end up doing it,

so it was one of those times when maybe I was right. I just keep Adamas. That's fine. Rowdy seems pretty fungible, but in these 12-teamers, I'm always trying to consolidate. I'm always trying to get just a little bit more value for my two roster spots and the roster spot. You know what I mean?

So I just thought Rowdy and Adamas, this is a good package, and I went through the entire league trying to trade away Rowdy and Adamas for one offensive player and nobody bit. And the closest I got was, I think it was Rowdy and Adamas for Tristan McKenzie. I thought about it and I was like, I'm going to buy this young pitcher. I like this guy. And maybe the way I can trick this out is make my pitching staff better and then go and find somebody like Roddy and Adamas on the wire and repeat. Maybe just I need to swim in a different direction because they've known me for so long in this league. They know every time I'm coming trying to trade a pitcher for a bat

or trying to get their young bats, they're just like, no, no, no, oh, you want him? So I ended up having a hard time trading this year, and I have Rowdy and Adamas, and maybe I drop Rowdy for somebody next year in the draft. I actually don't think McKenzie for Adames is unfair either. I think that's a pretty... But that's why I was trying to bring that up.

So you're talking about Bregman? So I think that was fair. So I think Adames for McKenzie is right where he's at his level. Because Adames, he's good, but he has flaws. He's at a position you normally get some steals from. He's not going to give you many. He's not a good batting average guy because of strikeouts.

8 for 10 this year in stolen bases, though. Running a little bit more. That's a team that's kind of sneaky, willing to pick spots. That's more than I thought he had. Yeah. It's kind of like, because of Dansby Swanson's big step forward this year i think the willie adames steps forward maybe have been a little overshadowed in in just a broader

like pool of players you're right about the average flaw this is the lowest batting average we've seen from adames at 241 care rates down a little bit i don't know barrel rates been ticking up every single year 5 years in the big leagues every year he's been in the big leagues Willie Adames has increased his barrel rate that can't happen forever but I almost wonder if we could Frankenstein together one more season

where he does all the things he's shown over the years all together he could have a peak season left in him where he hits like 280 with 35 homers he's missed a little time this year too 131 games 31 homers it's the he's missed a little time this year too. 131 games, 31 homers. It's the better season I think a lot of people realize. Yeah.

I mean, I'm kind of glad I still have him. It's fine. It's frustrating sometimes when you think you have a good package to go shopping with and you don't get anything for your effort. You know, I had another thought here. This is kind of uh it's just i think it's it's part of what we're talking about it's but it's not on the rundown and the strategy that we've been talking about of like getting players that have a little bit of

speed i think that's a roto strategy does that not work as well head-to-head? Because that 12-team dynasty is head-to-head. So the reason I have Adamas as a zero in stolen bases is I don't think of him as part of my steals package. Like, you know, late in the week you need a steal, Adamas is out. Because that's not a number of steals I can count on. I'm not like, oh, yeah, Adamas is going to steal a base this week. You know what I mean?

I wonder if in head-to-head you need to be a little bit more like, no, I have my steals, guys. No. You think you still just sort of grab a little bit of steals? You can have five guys who have ten steals. That means that one or two of those guys are going to get a steal this week. I can't give you a clear reason why i don't think it matters but my my instinct is that it probably doesn't matter i think you know we talk a lot about stolen bases happen against a

pitcher like yes there's a pitcher and a catcher and the timing of the pop time like all that stuff matters but it's usually considered like a stolen base comes off of a pitcher. You decide to run more based on the pitcher than anything else. Right? So I think what you would need is more granular analysis when you have a roster full of guys that run some but not a lot. If you have to make sit-start calls in a head-to-head league, I think you got to look more closely at those actual matchups because someone like Willie Adames probably picks his spots very carefully.

He could be in a steals package if he's facing Noah Syndergaard this weekend. Right, or even just someone, yeah, Syndergaard's the perfect example because anybody against Syndergaard you want in there, but you choose, I think, based on factors like that. You have to be more aware of factors like that if you build that way. Whereas the in-out thing, if you've got some, I don't know, if Miles Straw got dropped in a league like that, and he's played pretty well down the stretch,

but if he got dropped in a 12-team head-to-head league, yeah, sure. You're chasing speed. You're going to throw Miles Straw in at the end of the week because you know that's what he brings to the table. But I think what you overlook in a head-to-head league is that Willie Adames is better in what, every other category?

By pretty, by pretty wide margins based on where he hits in the order. So you're taking a hit in at least three categories for a boost in one.

So then in head-to-head, that could, that could be a pretty big difference. Oh, hey, you won steals with your steals package, but guess what? You just lost the other stats that you needed.

Like Jorge Mateo versus Willie Adames on the year. Oh, hey, you won steals with your steals package, but guess what? You just lost the other stats that you needed. Like Jorge Mateo versus Willie Damas on the year. Yeah, that's more like that, but that's still... Mateo, tough player for next year. Really tough player for next year. Especially with Gunnar Henderson playing shortstop.

Jorge Mateo just had an 81 wrc plus at 27 years old and i think he pretty much deserved all every bit of that 81 wrc plus that to me the shape was weird though it was and it and he definitely made some improvements i'm not saying he didn't and the power looks a little bit better but with that strikeout rate and walk combo, I think he's headed towards being a backup. Yeah, good defender. Not necessarily a guy they want to pencil and probably as an everyday player next year.

We'll see what happens. Team change could always happen for a player like that too or another rebuilding squad might feel better about giving him 500 plus plate appearances and the Orioles might see give them a picture, a better build overall. They, they do something like that.

But you know, if you're going really young, thinking about a player like McKenzie, just similar value. I mean, we've had a lot of players debut this year. I was looking for prospects who haven't come up yet, who might be right around that value level.

I don't think you're getting to the top of the list. I don't think you're getting Jordan Walker right now for Tristan McKenzie in a dynasty league. That's not going to happen. Are you going to get Jason Dominguez? Maybe. I don't know if you want to do that, though. I think pitching is hard enough to get. I think even if you have

a lot of it, I think you just would stand pat. Unless your team's not playing for 2023, then you can think about the Dominguez type options. Either unless your team's not playing for 2023 then you can think about the dominguez type options either way it's not easy and my advice would be to angle more for an established player adames bregman players like that if you're going to move like a by low veteran too you know like just somebody with an established record or maybe i mean could you after all the injuries this year could you take mckenzie and put him out there and try and get Eloy Jimenez? And maybe you have to add something else

with McKenzie as a throw-in, but that might be the road I'd go down. That's the kind of stuff I like to do, yeah. A young player who's been in the big leagues for a little while, whose stock has taken a hit, per-game production still looks good. Yeah, it's risky. But then there's risk on both sides.

The risk you feel with McKenzie, either holding him or the other person feels trying to trade for him, they're giving up some risk coming back. I think of the two risks, I'd be a little more comfortable with Eloy Jimenez in a long-term league. All this is, again, is to say, Tristan McKenzie looks good. This looks legit. If you're out

there and you have him and you want to keep him, I don't think you're wrong for wanting to keep him. Thanks a lot for that question, Jake. Let's be clear. When a lot for that question, Jake. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks.

No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Another question here from Michael. As we wind down the year, I like to look at early returns from the trade deadline. I think the long-term ramifications for the Nationals and Padres still need a long time to marinate, but I'm interested in some of the smaller moves to see where we can find values for next year. I'm intrigued by the deals between the Phillies and Angels that ultimately resulted in a swap of young struggling outfielders in Brandon Marsh and Mickey Moniak. Neither player

has likely become a star as their prospect pedigree once suggested. Both players are showing signs they're benefiting from a change of scenery. Are there signs under the hood for either of these players that they will matter to fantasy managers in 2023? Michael also threw in a beer of the week, Super Lager from Wild Leap, which I have not had before. Sounds kind of amazing. Yeah, that's great. I had a Fest beer, and it's Oktoberfest time.

beer and uh you know it's it's octoberfest time but uh the uh the thing that i like to do is just try not to look at any sort of slash line type stuff too hard uh that's a good that's good all season but it's particularly good when you're just looking at 100 plate appearances with a new squad. And the biggest evidence I have for taking one or the other is Marsh really put an effort into striking out less. And that's really interesting to me because he's had pretty wildly oscillating up and down strikeout numbers in the minors and if he if this could stick i think that would make him a lot better player so for example he had a 36 percent strikeout rate with the angels and uh that was in line with his numbers from his rookie season when he struck out 35 of the time time. So, you know, that's, I think, pretty far gone.

There's not that many regulars that have a 36% strikeout rate. With the Phillies, he has a 31%, 30.8% strikeout rate with a corresponding drop in whiff rate with, you know, very clear changes to his setup and swing. I like that. Over their careers, they have similar, but Marsh has slightly better barrel rates. And they have the same problems,

where Moniak also has strikeout rate problems. But we have, with Moniak, no change in strikeout rate with this new team and with marsh we have a change yeah there's also the organizational questions like the things that the angels couldn't fix with marsh and joe adele not sure they're able to fix that with moniac right same problem they they traded away with the same problem the same problem almost if there's a benefit for moniac maybe it's just getting out of the organization where expectations were sky high you go one one to a team and you know you're just not that kind of player from a historical sense well okay then that pressure is added pressure that you feel every time something doesn't go

right maybe that's gone being in a new organization. Maybe that's part of what helps him take steps forward. I think the other parts of the Moniac profile that are worth looking at is this season at AAA as a 24-year-old, very limited time there. We saw a 277, 341, 518 line, a 124 WRC+. It's a good player. Five homers, five steals. 91 plate appearances.

Very, very small sample. And I think last year in a larger sample at AAA, it was a 91 WRC plus. You go all the way back through his minor league track record and you've got one full season's worth of plate appearances. That was AA as a 21-year-old in 2019, where he was an above-average player, 115 WRC+. It's certainly not hopeless for Moniak. But I think our expectations are probably more of like a fourth outfielder.

And if he's more than that, maybe it's just because things click a little late for him and he's a late bloomer. That could happen. I'm much more inclined to believe in Brandon Marsh, in part because the thing he's missing right now, he's not really walking at all with this approach, but again, 104 plate appearances. The improved K rate's a good sign. The barrel rates have been solid. We've seen patience in the past, and there's a lot of other things he does. He has that power speed combo. It's a 10-10 season, even as he's figured things out 10 homers 10 steal it's good in a mono league at least but i think when we start to look ahead to draft and hold season

we start thinking about 2023 this is a profile i actually want on the bottom part of my roster and a big part of it is that i think the playing time is going to be very stable i think they need brandon marsh in sailing is not a good center fielder. Odibel Herrera is not a good center fielder. Hopefully he's gone by next year. Yeah, I think they're finally moving on from some of those players being in that position group at least, if not in the case of Herrera, moving on entirely. But I'm in on Marsh as a very deep league sort of player,

someone that in a dynasty or a keeper league that you could acquire in the offseason probably as a throw-in. In some cases where a lot of players are kept, I think you might be surprised at what you get from him next season because it's a very hitter-friendly environment. Good lineup around him too, so the counting stats will be better than a lot of other players. I like the hitting coach

there, Kevin Long. I like the director of hitting there, O-Chart. I think they're i think they're pretty good at the hitting part and um i think there's also if if they hit their 75th percentiles i think marsh's is just better right a little bit because of that walk rate so if they hit their 70th percentiles next year i feel like you know marsh could hit 260 with a 320 obp and uh have like uh you know what like 25 homers and the steals is a big thing with the new rules but he could go like 2020 next year it's not out of the question that's i'm not stretching it too hard i'm just giving him

back some of the walk rates he's had in the minors along with the new strikeout rate. Projections are going to be pretty light, I think, on Marsh. You're going to get 240, 245-type averages, 310, 315, maybe at the high end for an OBP, and probably even a 400 or lower slugging percentage. But I think you could make a case for taking the over across the board on that 2023 slash line for all of these reasons. Thanks a lot for that question, Michael. We've talked a lot recently about the 2023 rules changes, and I think there's been this sort of lingering question for the long haul about catcher values,

but the immediate concern would be that if stolen base attempts are going to go up that stolen base defense from catchers the ability to handle the running game is maybe going to be a little more under the microscope so this question came in from rich he uses cal raleigh as an example raleigh's a switching catcher on an improving offensive lineup strikes out way too much for my liking, but his power is very impressive. He's a good pitch framer. The knock on him is his fringe average arm. He struggles to get runners out. My question is, how will the new rules for 2023 and the eventuality of MLB's automated strike zone affect drafting catchers for 2023, especially in a keeper league?

So usually what Rich does, he included this in the email as well, he drafts catchers at A ball and double A as kind of a hit and miss sort of thing because it's a dynasty league where they have to roster two and we know catchers sometimes take a lot longer to develop. It's very hard to hold onto those prospects

and to be right about them. Yeah, that's a tough league, man. Two catchers in Dynasty. Woo! Yes, I've thought about this a lot. I've thought about things like, how will they stand behind the plate, and would this help Cal Raleigh?

I think that there's a possibility they might stand more like an infielder. Because the things that we see, like them getting down on one knee, and most of the way that they're sitting and standing right now is to make their framing better. So if that's not going to be an aspect,

and I think we're talking about automated balls and strikes in two years. So I think this is coming very fast. I mentioned that I like Logan O'Hopp, you know, as a possible offensive-minded catcher. I think that teams may go with offense at the position a little bit more. And could standing in a different way help Cal Raleigh throw people out? You know, because that'll be the thing that you want. And the last thing is, I don't think blocking is that important.

The thing that you want. And the last thing is, I don't think blocking is that important. Blocking is just not something with a big range of values. And when it happens, people think about it a lot, but it doesn't happen that often that it causes a problem. The spread in blocking runs is just not that big. the spread and blocking runs is just not that big so I just feel I like Cal Rowley enough that I think

it could be a boon for him because there's just enough power there but people I think that'll be hurt Jose Trevino types, I think it really hurt he's first in framing somebody People I think that'll be hurt, Jose Trevino types, I think get really hurt. He's first in framing. Why does he, you know, somebody that also gets jobs for his framing, maybe Higashoka, Grandal, if he can't get the offense going again, you know, one of his things is how good he frames.

Jason DeLay might be a framing guy that gets jobs for his framing. Generally, also, the people that don't have great offense are going to filter out because I think teams will go for more offense in the position. Yeah, Raleigh That's why I think Raleigh might be safer

because I think he actually has pretty good offense for a catcher. Yeah, I believe in the bat for sure. He's pretty big. He's one of the larger catchers. He's like 6'3". And you think about just the mechanics of getting out of a crouch or getting up from being on a knee, however he tends to receive the ball.

I don't watch the Mariners enough to have a firm grasp on that. But I can imagine being larger, taller, makes it a little harder to get into your mechanics and to release the ball quickly out of those positions, generally speaking. There probably are exceptions, but I could see that being something if you can change your technique,

you might be right. His pop time might get better if he didn't have to consider his framing. Right, he might gain more if he can receive the ball differently in the future. But I think because that's still a couple of years out, I'd be more focused on the stolen base issues right now. But I still, I look at that, you agree with what we were talking about earlier, right?

Bases are stolen off of pitchers. More than catchers. More than catchers, even though the catcher does have a role in it yeah i mean what's a way to show this you could look at uh the leaderboards yeah we've got it up right now jacob stallings leads the league in stolen bases allowed 57 stolen bases against jacob stallings i don't think of jacob stallings as a bad defensive catcher. You know why, though? Where is he again?

Miami. Miami. Excuse me. Big sneeze. He's in Miami. Sandy Alcantara is 22 of those. Yeah. By himself.

So who else is doing that in Miami that's so bad? Pablo Lopez is five. So we got 27. How many did he give up? 57. So he's not good. There was one other Marlins starter I saw on the pitching leaderboard for that, though. Let's see.

I'm going to do this. Alcantara is up there but see I think what we'd be looking for is the disagreement between stolen bases allowed Braxton Garrett 9 and pop time right don't you want to like find the disparities between those where catcher can be fast if the pitcher's slow

it doesn't matter well if you just do it by teams you know this is what I was going to say so the the angels are our fifth most stolen bases allowed 95 right uh but if you then break it out and look at who those 95 are uh what you'll find is oh an, Anaheim is... Oh, and while you're looking that up, check this out. Jacob Stallings actually is slow for pop time, so my perception of him is wrong

just based on preconceived notions about him based on other factors. He's 26th percentile in pop time. So they have 95 stolen bases allowed, 25 of them in Norrisndergaard, right? 13 of them are Reid Detmers. And then you could take Tapera and Herjit, right? If you take those four pitchers, that's more than half of their,

that's about half of all of their stolen bases allowed. So I think that is a little bit of evidence that it's mostly the pitcher and not the... If it was the catcher that was the problem in Anaheim, it would be all of them, right? Patrick Sandoval is on the same team as Noah Syndergaard earlier this season. Patrick Sandoval has allowed three stolen bases.

Yeah, that's why you have to look at both. Jose Suarez has allowed one. Yeah. I think it is allowed one. Yeah. I think it's mostly off the pitcher. That also matches our reporting. Me and Andrew Bagley and I were talking to coaches and players about this, and they were all like, yeah, it's all about the pitcher. You know the pitcher's timed to home, and if he doesn't vary them

or he's too slow to home, then we take off. Looking at some other pop times, Cal Ralealeigh 34th percentile and pop time so there's there's something there tucker barnhart i'm looking at the caught stealing leaderboard to see who's actually good at pop time 34th percent who's good at pop time is anyone good at pop time? Everyone's in the 34th percentile. Who is good? Look at that leaderboard. Alfaro, maybe? Hmm. Yeah.

Because it's not just about catching runners, because teams run on you more if they think they can run on you. So the volume, it's more the success rate. Rio Muto is number one. Right. And he's allowed 37. He's caught 27. So that makes sense. Yeah.

He's at 182. Alfaro is third at 189. Sean Murphy is 189. But look, the spread, let's talk starting catchers. Maybe there are some catchers down here that don't play a lot that have a bad pop times, but the difference between Austin Nola at 63rd and Jorge Alfaro at third is 2.01 to 1.89. So we're talking 0.22 of a second? I think that's what I'm talking about,

the spread of things, right? I think the spread here is not very wide. I was wondering, too, thinking about some of the other young catchers that we rely on for their bats. I mean, Alejandro Kirk, defensively. Not a great framer, right? This year, StackHast has him as an excellent framer,

but also slow pop time. Yeah, I like this question because this is something I had not previously thought a lot about. I don't know if it's going to be something that impacts playing time right away or if there'd be a lag. I mean, we could go through 2023 to kind of have more of a, let's see what happens.

And then going into 2024, maybe we'd have a little more of a reaction to some of the other catchers that got ran on a lot. How about the bad framers that might play more if it's automatic balls and strikes? Especially, I think of Francisco Mejia, you know, slightly better offensive catcher, MJ Melendez, strikes, especially I think of Francisco Mejia,

a slightly better offensive catcher. MJ Melendez, the worst framer in baseball this year. Minimum 100 innings, but yeah, there's a lot of people that he's up there with 500 innings. So worst framer in baseball that was already playing a little left field. Maybe with automated balls and strikes, he goes behind the plate, and Sal Perez is more of a DH. Austin Nola is a bad framer. Let's put this into other terms.

Kyber Ruiz got bad framing numbers this year. Are there any catchers that you are worried about for next year with the possibility or likelihood of teams taking off more often any catchers that you otherwise would have liked you say oh playing time might actually become a problem for this guy if teams are going to be more active on the base paths yasmani grandal has the second the third worst pop time in baseball and is known as a plus framer. And we bought him for his offense in the past, right?

He used to be one of these great catchers that was great at everything. You knew he'd play all the time because he's a great framer and he had great offense. Well, I think injuries have really sapped the offense. If you're thinking, oh, I'm going to buy him on a bounce back offensively, you may get one year out of him maybe a year from now he's a backup dh type because he can't throw runners out so grandal strikes uh is out there for me uh a lot of uh the worst pop times are retiring steven vote was last uh kurt suzuki wasth. Yadier Molina is 78th. So, you know, that's going to be called.

Who is above that? Mitch Garver, was he already? He was DH-ing because of the forearm injury, right? Yeah, because of injuries, but also Jonah Haim is a better defender. Better catcher, yeah. Well, maybe he's a little bit worried for Mitch Garver. You think you buy him on a bounce back, but he's got injury. And then what if he has, like, an injury season,

and then, you know, they're running all over, running on him. The forearm is still sore or whatever. And then automated balls and strikes comes, and, you know, he just doesn't have the same value he used to have. Max Stassi has a poor pop time james mccann i think there's uh enough offensibility there where they'll probably stick around though yeah so i guess the the main takeaway is just watch out for the horrendous pop times in particular because if teams are are going to run a lot more, the guys who are very bad at getting rid of the ball quickly,

they're going to get picked on just as the same as the slow pitchers to home plate. Teams are measuring this. They're going to rigorously take advantage of all the information they have at their disposal. That's one of the things we have publicly that might shed some light on catchers

that are in danger of losing some playing time. But you could hit enough to where it won't matter. You could have fast pitchers working with you that could help offset it. So you have to look at those factors too. Yeah. But there will also be some long-term changes to what they value that won't happen in year one. that won't happen in year one. Because with automated balls and strikes and the rules for throwing over

and the bases and everything, there's a bunch of shifting incentives for teams when they're evaluating catchers and what they're looking for. And I don't think that'll all just suss out in year one. No, I'm trying to think of any prospect types that I would be skeptical of. I brought up Ohop.

I was just like, I think Ohop will like these rules. Maybe some of the Yankees' optimism about Austin Wells being a catcher is more realistic with the direction things are going, but I've just got Keith Law in my head on that one i would say just generally offensive minded prospect catchers where you might hear something like you know fangrass has a 40 50 on logan ohop fielding i think those types uh 40 50 fielding catchers with good offense are you know become a little bit more interesting. Hopefully that helped hope that steers a few people in the right direction.

As you think about that position for the next few seasons, we are going to go on our way out. A quick reminder. You can email us questions at rates and barrels at the athletic.com. If you've got mailbag questions for a future episode, you can send us tweets. He's at, you know,

Sarah's I'm at Derek van Riper. If you don't have a subscription to the athletic, you can get one for a dollar a month for the first six months at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. That's going to do it for us today. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening.