Rates & Barrels - Fishing for Pitching: Overlooked Veterans, Relievers w/Starter Potential & Young Risers

Episode Date: August 18, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss several late-season pitchers to monitor in hopes of finding undervalued arms for stretch run, and potential big movers in 2023 -- including young starters, relievers w/the chance to move into larger roles, and the next group of elite closers.   Rundown -- Starters with Stuff+ Improvements From Last Season -- Jake Junis' Emergence in San Francisco -- Potential Movers from Current Bullpen Role to Future Starting Opportunities -- Making Sense of DL Hall's Debut -- Nick Lodolo in the Face of Sinkers Disappearing -- Edward Cabrera's Recent Success -- The Next Group of Elite Relievers -- Yusei Kikuchi as a Bullpen Arm? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe for $1/mo for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Thursday, August 18th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we are fishing for pitching.

We're going to look at some currently overlooked starters with some long-term potential. We're going to try and find some of the members of the next crop of elite relievers. And we'll take a look at some current relievers who could be future starters so tons of pitching stuff mashed into one episode ahead of the weekend how's it going for you on this thursday you know good i'm propping my eyes open it was another crazy night at casa reyes saris Dogs and children and pandemonium. What's the next pet that you are going to get as a family? Have you decided yet? It won't be a chinchilla.

They're messy and require a lot of attention and so it will not be one. I have been I have a follow TheWeedDetective on Twitter, that has a large turtle. And the turtle seems to actually interact well with his cat. We have cats.

There's a picture he had recently of a cat on top of the turtle, a large turtle. And I know from the neighborhood there's a turtle that my dogs don't are not threatened by it and have no capacity like just don't understand it so we could have a turtle and it would they wouldn't be barking at the turtle all the time probably because they move so slow so the dogs are like that's just a rock that's a rock yeah it's a rock and the wind pushed that rock yeah if turtles were more like plastic bags, dogs would hate turtles. Because dogs hate plastic bags. Yeah, anything that moves unexpectedly, you know?

Yeah, I just figured something that would go in a tank or a clear box was probably the next move because then you could contain it to one part of your home. We have a fair amount of tanked. We have a lot of fish. That's right, you do have fish. We could have, yeah, the other thing is, you know, like an axolotl.

In terms of living things, I only see that come up on Google Sheets, anonymous axolotl. It's like, oh, oh okay i don't even know what that animal is so look that up you're gonna have to google that one thanks thanks for that but no it is it's uh it's it's like a farm environment but it's not a farm you you have you have the chaos of a farm but you have like a more of like an oasis setting otherwise yes you don't have you don't have the big plot of land. You don't have a tractor.

You don't have an outbuilding. You don't have those things. We could get chickens. We're allowed to have chickens in our city. And there are chickens on our block. And I would love to have eggs. I do not love chickens, though. They're loud, stinky, and any area you let them go around in,

they just sort of poop around it. Yeah, I would say the chickens with dogs, probably not the best combo. Yeah, we'd have to sort of fence off a whole area. Love the idea for a turtle. If you have an idea for what Eno should name the family turtle once they have one, send those our way, ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com.

Fishing for pitching, though. let's talk about some currently overlooked starters with long-term potential there are some days you know there are busy days on my schedule thursdays are kind of busy i record three shows now on thursdays and when you have a piece come out on a thursday it's just like i won the lottery because there's automatically a lot of stuff we can talk about. And I don't have to be quite as creative as if you didn't have a piece come out that day. Now we share the load. We come up with ideas for the show all the time. But this is a great piece because you took a look at some starters who had stuff plus increases from last year to this year. And you kind of dug into where those increases came from. And I think that's really important because a lot of times I think people think about pitchers changing and we immediately assume more velo, more velo is good, more velo is the way. And that's true. More velo is good. But a lot of times pitchers are maxed out. They've already pushed that button. They've already emptied that tank. They've already gone through that training. They've already switched to weighted balls. They've already done all the things they could do to maximize efficiency

and sort of top out with Velo. But there are other ways to move that number. And that seems to be the more common way that stuff plus increases have happened from last year to this year. Yeah, because we're looking at major league players. Sometimes we forget that, you know, we're, you know, oh, we're looking at a league players sometimes we forget that you know we're you know oh we're looking at a young player they could change well even a young player has spent three four five years in the minor leagues right so they've gone to gas camp and you know they've they know what driveline is they've either decided to do it or not you know they know what the weighted ball programs are so most of them have have done it and there isn't that much more to be gained out of their velo.

And if you look at aging curves, mostly velo just goes away over time. So when I looked at the 25 biggest Stuff Plus risers from last year to this year, that includes near, I have them ranked uh you know by the stuff plus difference so i'll just let's look in the first five or six or something jacob junis is number one and right away uh you should be uh that's a hint towards how to improve yourself kyle wright number two chris archer christian javier shohei otani mitch keller tyler mcgill so that's that those are the biggest risers and um you know most of them are having good seasons especially compared to their previous track records and uh of that group only%, so only 13 of them improved their velocity by at least 0.75 miles

per hour. And in fact, that number gets lower if I remove some of the guys returning from injury, like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, and Noah Syndergaard. I think I had another example. I forget who it was. but if you remove the guys coming back from injury that number drops below 50 so that is not actually the best way to improve your stuff 73 of them so almost three quarters of them improve the shapes on one or more of their pitches by more than one inch so So that is a real way forward. And then here's the biggest number, 88% of them, I think all but three of them changed their pitch mix.

And in order to say that they changed their pitch mix, I said 5%. So it was like a pretty high bar to say change their pitch mix when I was going through. And all of them but three had a major major change their pitch mix that's why I said Jake Junis was a large hint because he just threw the slider a lot more and I think that's the easiest way to look for future future breakouts it's the easiest way for teams to think about hey let's acquire this guy and just really up the change up uses the slider usage whatever it is and so I think that that

was the sort of prism that I looked through the different pitchers that people asked me to look at you know in that piece so just looking at Junis for a minute, seven innings, last time out, seven strikeouts, one earned run on four hits. He had a run of five appearances where he didn't even get into the fifth inning more than once.

And it looked like it was kind of like the wheels were falling off. The league had sort of adjusted and figured them out. I think there is something here with, with Junis and maybe Chris Archer kind of fits into this group too. There's still even with improvements and stuff, some limitations on guys that don't necessarily have that, that deep arsenal. And then I think it's,

it's also hard to utilize these players in our fantasy leagues because we don't typically trust them to have that workload with junis it was strange because when he first came up he was working out of the pen in long relief so he had a couple of five inning relief appearances then he worked him as a starter for a while he went five plus i think at four consecutive starts got sent down for a little while came back up had that bad run we just described like there was an injury oh that's right he got hurt yeah he got hurt in there too i think the june to july missing uh data there is injury because he had a hamstring injury and then when he came back he was uh he he wasn't

fully stretched out but they needed him um So they activated him before he was fully stretched out. And since that, he's been under five, you know, he was under five innings for like five, six consecutive starts. So I don't know. I don't know. I have talked to him a fair amount, and he said the hamstring felt fine. But there is that sort of interaction between injury and how stretched out he was. Plus, maybe the league being like okay he throws the slider a lot more but

i mean underrated he does throw the change up a lot it's not an amazing pitch uh by any means um and he hasn't actually changed the the shape on it uh but I think just to offset what you're saying, he's thrown this pitch that has an 81 stuff plus, but 105 location and ends up being a 97 pitching plus pitch. So he's throwing a slightly below average pitch just to keep them off of the slider and the sinker. Yeah. Oh,

and it was, it was an option in late April. And then it was that hamstring injury that cost him that time from the middle of June until the middle part of July. So I think he's pretty interesting just because he ended up in a pitcher-friendly environment and an organization that has a pretty good recent track record of finding overlooked pitchers. So they're definitely in that group of teams. When they take a flyer on somebody, you want to pay attention and kind of see what might be different. That's to me, we have this new this new reason to care about spring training. It's just sort of like looking in really granular ways at what a pitcher might be doing differently that led him to a new team.

Why did this team take a flyer on this guy? Like that? That's a question that we can now answer. Yeah, I think in Junius' case, they were like, hey, he has an elite slider by our stuff plus numbers, basically, and we think he can throw it more. I think fantasy managers can act accordingly. It's just the toggle between

how good the group of pitches is and how elite the toggle between how elite the one good pitch is and then how wide the pitch mix is around it I think is almost feel still because Junis has um this elite slider and so does kyle bradish right so and kyle bradish throws the the slider about half as much he throws the forcing fastball

so could you tell kyle bradish throw that slider exactly as much as you throw your four-seam fastball? You know? And would that lead to a breakout? Well, Kyle Braddish's four-seam fastball has 83 stuff plus, 98 location, 96 pitching. That's worse than Junius's fastball, his sinker. So, will it work or will it not i i i kind of see uh possibly a reliever out of kyle bradish just because the change up is low stuff good locations i don't think that's that's good enough for a change up the curveball is low stuff you know mediocre

locations it has been popping a little bit and been looking a little bit recent but what can like how many other pitchers do you know that establish with the slider throw a curveball off the slider and then throw the foreseam uh rare like rarely i don't it's it's not um like i don't who does that remind you of anybody not off hand no that's a very unusual approach i think that would be pretty unusual it seems to me like a reliever now put that up against mitch white mitch white slider is not as elite by itself but it is his best pitch now he's got a change up that uh rates is above average with sort of average stuff average location uh his four seam uh he locates it a little bit better um and he throws five pitches right now so it's five chances to alter his mix

and change tweak tweak the uh the movement right so i kind of i'm more bullish on mitch white becoming a a good starting pitcher in the future than i am kyle bradish there's more chances for success even if his elite pitch is lesser than kyle bradish's so there was a question that came in from oj oj writes every year there seems to be a few guys who successfully transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Tyler Wells, Aaron Ashby, Michael Kopech, Drew Rasmussen among them from this year. Is there a way we can use the pitching model to make some educated guesses about who could do it next year? That's kind of what we're getting at here. I assume it would be guys who don't just pop in stuff, but also in command.

Figure guys who are full-time closers or are there permanently, even if they were starters recently. So that would cover someone like Jorge Lopez, and maybe even the high leverage guy like Yohan Duran is unlikely to move as well. A few candidates he threw at us, Adrian Morejon, Griffin Jacks, Ronaldo Lopez, all recent starters who don't close, maybe aren't even eighth inning guys. Seems like you'd maximize their value if you could return them to starting roles. So any legs to this theory as far as the way front offices act and the numbers work, any other guys we should add on the off chance of a move like this? I think Jax is kind of an interesting name because I think there's some similarities between Jax and Junis, but I think Jax actually throws a little harder too.

With the bullpen role, he's pushing that slider more. I know the model loved his slider last year, and the concern was, well, the other pitches don't really grade out that well as a starter. But there are two other pitches. There's still a changeup, and there's still even a curveball that he's throwing 5% of the time as a reliever. He threw it a little more as a starter in the past. So that would kind of give you the extra outs, the multiple paths to figuring something out during an offseason, if you can change the shape or change something about the characteristics of those pitches to make them more effective. It's true. And the model even liked him last year as a starter when nobody else

did. I guess it is possible. The one thing that stands out for me is that with the added velo boost of going to the pen his fastball is a 102 stuff plus so whatever you think of him now you have to appraise how good you think he'll be when his foreseeing fastball is a 95 stuff plus or 98 you know because it's going to go down and then all of his other pitches will be defined off of that and so it you know that's why generally stuff goes down the more you pitch because your fastball stuff is going down and your pitches are all defined off of that so that's something you have to think about. Look at even Spencer Strider. He was in Felix Bautista territory as a reliever, and he's still maybe the best starting pitcher by Stuff Plus, but the difference between Felix Bautista and the best starting pitcher

is about 30 points of Stuff Plus. That's a pretty big difference. Right. points of stuff plus it's a pretty big difference right so if if jacks you know if jacks loses five or six uh points of stuff plus he could be a viable starter if he loses more uh then he you know i think he falls out the one thing that i don't like about uh the jacks call even though i do kind of i see it in the mix is he was a starter and became a reliever a lot of in terms of in the major leagues right so he kind of had his chance quote unquote when i think of tyler wells that was a guy who's a starter in the minor leagues who came on as a reliever and then went back to starting, I think that's a slightly

different pathway. So I'm a little bit more pessimistic about someone who has started in the major leagues like Reynaldo Lopez as well and a team decided, no, you're a reliever. There are some guys who go back and forth who have done that, but I think it's a little bit more rare. It almost seems like you need a team change. If a major league team had you as a starter and decided to use you as a reliever, you'd have to go somewhere else for a new set of evaluators to say, no, no, you're a starter. We believe that.

With Jacks, the other thing that's pretty interesting, the changeup is totally different. That was an 85.6 mile-an-hour changeup last year. He's throwing it at 89.5 this year. It's got to be a different grip, was an 85.6 mile an hour change up last year. He's throwing it at 89.5 this year. I mean, it's got, it's gotta be a different grip, different movement profile. There's, there's almost no way that that's the same pitch, right? That's not the kind of thing you see with the move to the bullpen. Oh yeah. He's throwing his change up harder. It's not really, not really the goal. And maybe you're trying to keep a nice Delta between the fastball and the

change up, but is that a much better pitch? Better by results, at least, to this point. He only throws it 13% of the time, but that would be the other thing that could have changed. Yeah, it's true. It's a 105 stuff plus changeup now. And so he's got the elite slider, which he always had. He's got the curveball is above average by stuff plus, not by location. So maybe he struggles to locate that. And that's meaningful too. But even if you take the curveball out, he has good locations on three pitches and he has above average stuff on three pitches. I mean, yes, that is something I would look for. You know, I would look for above average locations on pitches and above average. You know what I got to do? I got to put the by pitch leaderboard up on the Google Doc.

I'll do that for people. Just don't look at Otani's sinker. We're testing right now a version of the Stuff Plus model that A, includes some of 2022 data in its training, which we hadn't had before, right? When you make a model, you always have to train it on some data and then test it on other data. model you always have to train it on some data and then test it on other data um and so you know we we can now include some of 2022 data in the training and then the second part is it decides

uh what the fat primary fastball is uh by outing basically uh and it just takes the number the pitch that's thrown the most it doesn't even have to be a fastball so in effect it would take griffin jacks's slider and call it his fastball and define things off of that the new model would and so for example matt whistler's stuff plus actually goes up because his fastball is defined off of his slider um and uh so it's a little tricky we haven't tested it to know that it's much better uh but guys like graham ashcraft uh get better in that in that model where you know he throws a cut fastball as his primary fastball uh matt whistler got better and shohei otani's uh sinker got better to the point that's 120 stuff plus if you haven't been following along uh

shoyotani just started throwing i think he calls it a two seam his coaches call it a two seam uh he just started throwing a two seam he's through two all year and then his last start he threw six so uh it's a it's a good idea i think because his four seam is actually in terms of movement a little bit in a dead zone so he might actually get better as a pitcher uh any case um i don't know why i started talking about that i don't know but he got better as a pitcher last year to this year in terms of stuff he was one of the biggest movers he was already good last year and he got better so and the other model yeah the other model says he could get better i'm sorting through uh young i'm trying to look at pitchers with high stuff and then looking over at their at their command to see if i can spot someone just that way um but it's it's

not really working for me that way um in terms of you know who has that i would look for i would look for young pitchers coming up uh that were starters in the minor leagues and that have three pitches and can command at least two of them. I think that's the magic. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294.

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We got to see the debut on Saturday. I saw the numbers in the model. The Stuff Plus number is really good. It's like the best among any lefty I think we've seen in the big leagues this season. It was absurd. The location number was pretty comparable to Matt Brash. So my mind immediately said, okay, if the floor is filthy left-handed version of Matt Brash, but the ceiling is ridiculous if he could find a way to locate. Yeah, he has,

per the model, an elite slider, an elite curveball, an elite foreseeing fastball, and an elite changeup, basically, all by stuff. In terms of what he can command, the locations were only above average on the slider. However, that is an avenue for success. I wonder if, you know, in the minor leagues, you would tell a guy like D.L. Hall, it's got to be, you got to do the foreseam. You got to get command on the foreseam. You got to establish the foreseam.

Establish the foreseam. We got to get you practicing the foreseam. I wonder, you know, sometimes you get to the majors and you see a guy's pitch you get to the majors and you see a guy's pitch mix change in the majors and they feature some pitch they didn't throw as much i mean max freed added a slider in the majors and now it's his best pitch you know um i wonder if dl hall if he is actually putting the slider in good locations uh you know could up that slider usage and go 50 50 um you50 on the slider foreseam again

and benefit from that. I will always be interested in a pitcher like this. I acquired shares of D.L. Hall as soon as I saw him pop in the minor league numbers. But I also fell for Matt Brash. So there is a very high reliever risk here since, you know, curveball aside, he can only command one of his pitches.

And it's not a fastball. So how much do mechanics matter to you? I know with Brash, I remember talking to Keith Law on the athletic baseball show, and he said those mechanics are just, they're violent and they're problematic. if you have a location problem that also comes with a complicated or unorthodox delivery that would be maybe an extra reason from a scouting perspective to be skeptical i don't know if i've seen anyone point out similar flaws in dl hall's delivery or if you him, if you had any concerns yourself.

But does that matter to you when you're trying to determine how correctable a location issue might be? Because for Brash, I guess you can watch him and say, hey, that looks pretty hard to repeat. Maybe it's always going to be an uphill battle for him to become more consistent in that regard. Yeah. to become more consistent in that regard?

Yeah. I mean, first of all, I just have to be aware of the limitations of my own knowledge, you know, because I don't actually know that much. I mean, I know some of the ideal mechanics, but it's mostly about velo, about producing velo, and talking about staying back on the back leg and scapular retraction, which means basically putting your shoulder back

so you gain more sort of rubber band action, you gain more velo. I know a little bit about the things that create velo. I don't know a lot about you know what mechanics lead to uh good like good outcomes uh command wise but i will say that i when i watch dl hall i don't think oh my god this guy's ridiculous and yet when i watch alex wood i think this guy's ridiculous there's no way he could command anything. And I don't think that that has been the case for Alex Wood. I think he's shown fine command. Yeah. And just looking at

Hall's delivery, I don't see anything alarming. That doesn't mean a lot. I am not a mechanics expert. I'm not a scout, but I don't have the red flag start waving in front of me. Oh, that's not going to work. So I think there's probably more reason to be excited than pessimistic, even though we know this kind of profile can end up being a great high leverage reliever if it doesn't work out as a starter. I think the Orioles would be wise to push Hall as a starter for all of next season and probably into 2024

just to see if he can put it all together. I mean, you said four elite pitches by stuff. How many people in the pool even have two elite pitches by stuff? Yeah, I mean, you're Spencer Strider. Yeah, I mean, you're Spencer Strider. Yeah, I mean, that's rare. Yeah, and one thing I would suggest to anybody that is trying to use the model to find future starters, either in the relief pool or just in general command is very important and when i when i looked at um you know various command metrics i found that command predicted innings pitch per appearance better than stuff

so if you read between the lines there command was better at predicting who was a starter or not than stuff was and then you if you put that next to a finding that i had in my column two weeks ago which found that uh command disappeared after 80 pitches that command was actually what fell off first in any given start i think you understand why right like if you start with bad command and then over the course of your start it's only going to get worse and. And then 80 pitches in you, you're going to fall off of that. Then you're just not going to make it through the start. You know, it's just not going to work. Uh, so you have to have a high level of command. So in, in effect, I'd almost, uh, you know, do something where I sorted by location plus in the dock and then looked for guys that had multiple pitches.

So I wonder what that could produce. But again, the team, like Keegan Aiken pops this way, right? And maybe it's possible he goes back to starting. But the team he's on has decided he's not. So I don't know how that works for him. Well, lots of ways we can go from here. We did have a question about Nick Lodolo. And the thrust of the question was,

how do we rectify a sinker-heavy guy that misses bats like Lodolo in an era when that's not as common? Is that a big deal? Does that matter? Is that a limitation on the ceiling for someone like Nick Lodolo? I think when we talked about him maybe a month or so ago, I liked him as a young pitcher to actually get right now, even in redraft leagues, because we weren't going to be worried about innings down the stretch. They could just let him go as a regular starter the rest of the season. And compared to a lot of the young pitchers that we've seen from the early part of the season who've been healthy, we're facing some shutdowns here over the final six weeks. So plenty of Ks so far for Lodolo. 11 big league starts, 72 Ks, and 54 and two-thirds innings. Ratios are not

great. 4-12 ERA is not going to break you, but a 157 whip so far. Last time out, seven scoreless, eight Ks against the Phillies, probably the best start of his young career. But what do you make of what we've seen from Lodolo so far, and how does his approach worry

you if it worries you at all? I'm not in love with sinker guys coming up through the minor leagues when I don't have a stuff plus number, and that's just because I assume that it's not going to be that good in my model because sinkers aren't loved by the model and not loved by Major League Baseball. The number one pitch that has been going away in baseball is the sinker. Now, that does allow for you to be different now. And so there are some teams that are making bets on sinkers.

I would just say throw the four-seam or throw the sinker, whichever one has a better shape. Don't push it and start like the Royals. They all throw these four seamers, but they're not good because a lot of those guys were drafted as sinker guys. And Lodolo's sinker is very good. In fact, in the piece, I laid out that Nick Lodolo and Edward Cabrera were my two favorite guys for... I'm not going to show too much leg. Nick Lodolo and Edward Cabrera were my two favorite guys before.

I'm not going to show too much leg. There is a guy who used to be a reliever who is starting now that is also on that list. And you'll have to get the subscription to read the piece. But you don't wear shorts unless you're exercising, do you? No, I'm not. I'm not a never shorts guy. But I just wanted to point out that among sinkers thrown by starters, Nikola Dolos is second in Stuff Plus. So if you want to do a mental recalibration and say,

okay, Eno's model undervalues stuff on sinkers. If a guy has a 94 sinker stuff plus, then maybe I think that's good enough. I think that's actually an okay way to think about it because Nicola Dolo has the second best stuff plus on a sinker thrown by a starter and it's a 104 stuff plus. You might have expected a higher number when I said that. Sandy Alcantara has the number one sinker stuff plus among starters. He has a 108 stuff plus. So just to kind of compare on four seamers.

Are you looking for the top numbers on four seamers are you looking for the the top numbers on four seamers yeah uh i wish i had those more readily available i do not no no i i and i should have shared it before i started i'm right here i'm right here it's just i'm having an actual uh problem oh because it's written with a four instead of F-O-U-R. Anyway, the top four seam thrown by a starter is Spencer Striders with 150. 148 stuff plus. The ceiling for the stuff model on that pitch

is so much higher. Where you can go because of the way the model... You do have to grade that pitch against other sinkers and not just against the broader universe of fastballs. Yeah, so Jordan Montgomery has the third-best sinker in our model, 103. Brandon Woodruff is fourth-best among starters. Aaron Ashby is fifth-best.

That just gives you an idea of who has the best thinkers among starters in baseball um and uh since nick lodolo is already up there then maybe you know stuff plus undervalues him overall because it has him with an elite curveball and if it's really the third best thinker thrown by a starter then it's really an elite even though stuff plus that's not elite maybe it's an elite sinker sinker thrown by a starter, then it's really an elite. Even though Stuff Plus doesn't doubt elite, maybe it's an elite sinker. So now you've got two pitches that are elite, and the changeup is average. I don't think it's a problem.

The only question with Lodolo is command, but I don't think it's such bad command, like compared to D.L. Hall, right? Yeah, it's more like average command. Yeah, exactly. So maybe he has some slight ups and downs based on that command, but I think he has less work to do, for example, than Eduardo Cabrera, who, you know, the change up, everyone loves the change up and it's, you know, it's this

great pitch that, that, that goes 98 miles an hour sometimes. And it's, and it looks beautiful when Pitching Ninja throws it up. But the model doesn't love it. It doesn't have good separation from his fastball. And in fact, the model says he should be a sinker slider guy. Now, remember when Sandy Alcantara came up and he was trying to throw the foreseam and I think he just couldn't command it

because he's a natural sinker guy. And it wasn't really working. It wasn't really working. And then he kind of made a change where the sinker was more of his go-to pitch and the four seam was more of an action pitch that he went for swinging strikes with. Once he made that switch, everything clicked.

I could see a moment with Eduardo Cabrera where like, oh, I'm going to go more to sink or slider but I'm still going to have that four seam change up the four seam fastball and the change up in my back pocket, that could change everything, I think if he switched over to the sinker as his primary fastball and then went more sink or slider

because he has if you look at his repertoire, he has things that are elite by stuff and things that are elite by stuff and things that are better by command and if you just pick the right pitch mix i think edward cabrera could blow up nicola dola doesn't have to do anything he just has to be healthy so yeah you know he's absolutely somebody i would accept in a trade i don't like to trade for pitchers but he's absolutely someone i'd accept in a trade and fantasy ed Edward Cabrera is someone I'd hope that

I could pick up or as a throw-in in a trade or something, because he still has to kind of... I think there's something left that he has to do to click. But there is Sandy Alcantara level upside in Edward Cabrera. I think there is elevated injury risk for Cabrera, unfortunately, because he's had multiple

arm injuries coming through the Marlin system. And frankly, he throws so hard. It's interesting that he could end up making those tweaks and really unlock an even higher ceiling than previously expected. In some ways,

the way it's going for him right now, the 178 ERA and a 105 whip in six starts this year, he's been, I think, about as fortunate this year as he was unfortunate last year in seven starts. The ratios were bad last year. You look at him and say, okay, he's been i think about as fortunate this year as he was unfortunate last year in seven starts the ratios were bad last year and looked at him and say okay he's not he's not that guy he's probably not quite this guy either unless unless he makes like a few more tweaks i think i

mean uh yeah the strikeout rate is good but the walk rate is really high uh he can command his sinker better than his force team so i think long term he should think about going to his sinker better than his force team. So I think long-term, he should think about going to that sinker. It's hard to say that about someone who's having so much success right now. And maybe I overshot it by saying throw in, because you never know what kind of recency bias people have. Like, oh, I'm going to throw in this guy with a one ERA that looks like an amazing starter.

Yeah, dude, it's been like, remember last year? But it all depends on the interactions that you have in your league. like an amazing starter. Yeah, dude, it's been like, remember last year? But, you know, it all depends on the interactions that you have in your league. I wouldn't spend a lot to get Edward Cabrera because I still see this missing. I would rather have Lodolo.

So looking at Cabrera, I think he's just under 70 innings so far this season between rehab and big league innings and everything. So if he could stay healthy for the final six weeks, he probably gets into the 110, 120 range, which gives him a shot at 150, 160 next year. I don't think you would project him for much more than that anyway, given all the past issues. If you were a young pitcher, a younger pitcher who was just getting fully stretched out for

the first time, maybe you'd worry for slightly different reasons. But I do think he's going to carry that extra injury risk for a while. It's going to take a couple of years for Edward Cabrera to kind of push that far enough into his past where we're not thinking that much about it. And honestly, Lodolo too, right? I mean, he could get to 100 innings maybe if he's lucky this year and maybe have 120, 150 next year. But both of those guys are, you know, in redraft leagues are definitely names that I love,

you know, later in drafts next year. I will definitely have them in my top 75. They'll definitely be in that sort of 70s grouping where I'm like, ooh, I want one of these at the end of my draft, you know? Yep. If they rise up a little bit, you know, maybe I'll stick with Lodolo if he rises, if the cost rises. Maybe even Cabrera, but then

I'm choosing between them and it's one or the other depending on who's a little bit cheaper. Generally, it's funny, I make fun of the A's because they acquire these low-stuff guys. But in fact, I think we could learn from what they're doing, which is they're acquiring low-stuff guys that have a lot of pitches. And I think that's the one thing I would look for for breakouts

that is undervalued by the community. Because now stuff numbers are becoming more ubiquitous and now anytime you're trading with somebody who's in the know there's a couple of stuff models out there they can check out the stuff model and they can say ah no i don't want that low stuff you know um that that allows for some arbitrage that allows for some some i don't know if i i'm not going to go as far as say, go get you some JPC shares, but you can use that philosophy when you're looking. That's what I was sort of trying to get at

when I was talking about Mitch White. It doesn't look great. The Stuff Plus is not high, but there are a lot of pitches there. Yeah, no, Dane Dunning's got four pitches. You want some Dane Dunning? So, yeah, see, you got to be careful. It does seem like you could uh torch yourself pretty good like 89.4 on the fastball might be enough of uh

yeah thanks i'm glad you got three of the pitches these days yeah oh rock yeah yeah that's that's not what you what you're looking for let's talk about the next crop of elite relievers for a bit. We talked about the expected continuation of the closer tax, I think maybe two or three episodes ago. And I started thinking about one of my keeper leagues where the year that he became the closer in Cleveland, it wasn't clear because of James Korinchak that Emmanuel Class A was going to have

the job. And I got him for, I think, $4 in the auction. So he's been a great keeper for a few years, probably even an extension guy in that league, the way things are going. Strikeout rates a little bit low right now for Class A, given how good the stuff actually is. But it got me thinking about finding the next elite closers or trying to find the next elite closers. Maybe if you speculated on Ryan Helsley this year in a keeper league, you're feeling really good about your future at this point. Is Felix Batista just sort of the obvious guy right now? Maybe it's not even fair to point him out because he's come up a few times

over the course of the season. And now with Jorge Lopez being traded a few weeks ago, it's very easy to see the intention to use him as a regular closing option in Baltimore. Yeah, but I think it's still worth talking about him because he represents, I think, the best way to look for them, which is through the lens of Stuff Plus. I mean, we know that pitching plus is very strong, even stronger actually with relievers than with starters because you're dealing in small samples. And we know that Stuff Plus is stickier year to year.

So their hewing closer to Stuff Plus, I think, gets you where you need to go. I like guys like Jason Adam. I think he could push his way to the front there in Tampa. I like Joe Barlow still. I think he's going to get the job back. I don't know if these are elite guys, but they're definitely guys that have good stuff plus and opportunity. I picked up Pete Fairbanks.

I've picked up Sir Anthony Dominguez. In fact, I think he's sort of what you're talking about because they picked up other guys. He's not going to end up with the most saves on the Phillies this year. He's going to have the most saves on the Phillies next year. Yeah, as things are currently lined up, they could always be the team that goes back to the well in free agency

and maybe Kenley Jansen ends up going to the Phillies for a year or something like that. But, you know, Knabel was there on a one-year deal. Robertson was acquired as someone on a one-year deal who will be back in free agency again. So I think that makes sense. It seems like a good spot to possibly target someone. I think with the Rays,

we always have these assumptions that they will use a committee forever. They don't have to use a committee forever, or they could at least anoint one person as sort of the head of the committee, someone that could get 20 plus saves with great ratios and Ks. So I could see that being a path for Adam.

And I'm looking at the K minus BB percentage leaderboard too, just among pitchers with 40 or more innings. And you can see Adam's up there at 26.6% right there. Felix Bautista, 26.5% Bednar's in that range. So not a surprise to see him there since he would have been popping in this sort of conversation this time a year ago. Andres Munoz is still really interesting to me because I think we look at Seattle and I think we both like Paul Seawald. There's no reason why Paul Seawald can't be an elite closer, but Munoz might be someone that's a little overlooked right now because of the depth that they have

in that Seattle pen. We're now looking at almost 50 innings this season with a 40% K rate. Doesn't walk a lot of guys. A 7 percent walk rate is great missing that many bats so i mean what do you think about uh andres munos maybe as someone that you want to start stashing away now in keeper leagues and as someone that would make a lot of sense as we look ahead to draft and hold season and start thinking about 2023 a bit 100 100 huge stuff and and not just the four samer but definitely also the four samer um and uh and i could see them um trading paul seawall honestly you know like that's that's trader joe over there um trader jerry sorry and uh uh so i i think munoz is a guy that you want to you want to buy uh here's an interesting name that actually we should have talked about earlier.

Juan Duran absolutely has the command and the number of pitches to be a starter. And so that's an interesting guy to maybe target even in a trade, even though if you're buying a little high, you might be buying a starter next year or you might be buying their closer next year. Either way, it seems like he has an impact arm. And so I think you're kind of covered either way. I do like that when you have the possible gets you saves

or is going to be a good starter. Like that was where Strider was going. And I think that's where Brash is going. Like brash could eventually be the closer there too in seattle yes that's the one thing working it's muñoz it's not just one other option it's like three or four even eric swanson is having it's been really popping in the model he's a lot better eric swanson is also why i tend to actually look the other way. And it's because I also have leagues where I can benefit from having a closer in my starting pitcher spot. I'm always looking for in spring training for guys that are going from starting to relieving because Eric Swanson was

not a very good starter. And he's been a pretty, I would say a really good reliever. So, you know, and he's been a pretty, I have to say, a really good reliever. So, you know, sometimes you don't even need your fancy model to be like, hey, this guy was a starter and is now going to be a reliever this year. I'm going to put some money on that. Yeah, I guess that's where, like, the Eli Morgan name comes back into the conversation, too. Like, I wasn't really excited about him as a back-end starter in Cleveland, but he's been excellent for them out of the pen, like seven strikeouts to every walk.

It's just phenomenal to have a guy like that working as part of the bridge to the ninth inning. Any other reliever names that really stand out to you for one reason or another? I think Brian Abreu always intrigues me. I think I've mentioned him. You love him. I've mentioned him on this show a handful of times. I think he's been a prospect of the week's selection. He'd be among the guys that I would look at and say, reliever now that could be a starter later. And I think it's because I've seen Houston do this a few times. This is not necessarily an organization that takes that.

You're a reliever now. Javier's done it. I think Luis Garcia broke in as a reliever very briefly before starting, if I remember correctly. They've done this a couple of times already, and I think that is a profile that I'd want to take a chance on in deeper leagues and just kind of see what actually happens with his role going into next season. Yeah, I like Robert Suarez. I know he's got Josh Hader there, but if things fall apart in San Diego, I think Preller is on more of the hot seat

than you might expect. In fact, there could be a quick rebuild there if things go really poorly. So you never know where Robert Suarez ends up. And I don't even know what kind of a deal it was. I thought his contract was a short, like a one-year deal. So anyway, he might enter the market as a possible closer. I don't know if a contender would necessarily.

It's a two-year $11 million deal. But it's a 2023 player option. Yeah, so he could go back out into the market. Yeah, if he thinks he's done enough. Robert Suarez does have big, big stuff. And then just to your point earlier about Seattle having Festa actually. Another guy. Yeah, and former starter too, right?

Another guy. Yeah, and former starter too, right? But Jorge Alcala, when he comes back, that could be a thing where Jorge Alcala is healthy and they make him the closer and they try to make Duran a starter next year in Minnesota. Ryan Pepeo is an interesting guy because the command is so bad in this model and also just by eye test

that he could be a future reliever. And I don't know, you know, considering how many years of control they have and what kind of a team they are, I think his his journey towards being a reliever might be a long one so he might be a guy who's like a long guy

next year or something but I actually remain a little bit pessimistic about him being a major league starter despite how good the stuff looks it's that low like 91 location plus is really low you know so and for looks it's it's that low like 91 location plus is is really low you know so and for what it's worth uh you know there's there's not there's not really any starters to have it

that low yeah i think they because the dodgers do such a good job finding relievers off the scrap heap either injured players or guys that stuck in other organizations that they can they can tweak that kind of affords them the luxury of not forcing it with pepio they can say hey we want to see if you can make it to the start or we like having eight nine ten guys stretched out that we trust with major league caliber stuff go back to triple a again he's still got options for a few years so yeah they can they can't take that really long path a while for sure uh jonathan hernandez if joe barlow doesn't make it happen jonathan hernandez in texas uh could be the next starter the next closer there spores also looks pretty good in the model so they they're they've got a couple guys there it seems like they have nobody but they're they're definitely have some guys

hernandez has made it tough to wait it out with Barlow if you're in a mixed league for a keeper league of your AL only I think it's a little easier to just wait on that next option that that second reliever because it was gonna be Brett Martin but it wasn't Brett Martin that was fab money poorly spent could have been worse I mean I think it was a pretty small bid for the most part that it took to uh to get Brett Martin uh but yeah I was thinking about a couple other guys that have changed roles or will change roles recently what do you think about yusei kikuchi getting out of the rotation it seems like the jays are at the point now where they're trying to find some other way to use him and i think we've probably seen enough of him as a starter to

support that i mean we're talking about 448 innings now since he joined the Mariners back in 2019. An ERA just above five, a whip at 142. Yeah, to put Pepeo in context, you say Kikuchi's location plus is 94. That's a really bad sign for Ryan Pepeo. Yeah. Oh, here's another guy with Location Plus at 91. Carlos Hernandez.

Okay, also not a starter, unfortunately, which it appears. He's super wild. I think this is a great move for them in the postseason because when I look at that team, I think that Kikuchi could actually be a real wild card for them in the postseason because it's just more

likely that you can get more innings more innings per appearance due to command from guys like even stripling maybe even a white but in the postseason you don't need to worry about white so you're not you're not even going to start him so you become a barrios gossman manoa team where stripling is your long guy or if you're if you're in a seven game series stripling might start your fourth game but kikuchi can come in if barrios is bad barrios kikuchi can come in in the second it's a different look before barrios gives up five right if barrios is on his way to giving up five he gives up two you put in kikuchi in the second or third you keep it at two and you stay in the game because it's the postseason. So I think it's a move with an eye

towards the postseason. I think it's a great one because Kikuchi also gives them a look that none of their other guys give them. Powered lefty that can go multiple innings. I thought it would work out a little better for him in Toronto. I thought they could take the best parts of Kikuchi and make it work as a starter. So maybe they'll give it one more shot at the beginning of next season. It's a three-year deal that he's on right now. But if you can turn him into a good multi-inning reliever

who is good for two or three innings at a time or possibly a high leverage guy at some point, that's also worth $12 million a year. Could Kikuchi be kind of like the Drew Pomeranz of a few years ago? I think so. Although, the one thing is I'm not sure how much more velo he has because he is kind of a guy who throws really close to his max velo. So I don't think he's going to jump up to necessarily $97, $98 all the time.

I think it's maybe one tick instead of two or three right and that's that's something that maybe teams have a better sense on than we do in the public because you know i haven't really found the the if anybody wants to research this why do some relievers get more uh velocity when they go to the to the pen than others um i i think it has something to do with maximum, but I haven't actually seen that research done. And the average is like a tick and a half, but some guys get way more. What I'll say is Kikuchi maxes out right now as a starter at 96.9. that's where he is right now and he's sitting at 95 so yeah what's left maybe he can get to 95 five you know maybe he could get to 96 but he can't he's not going to go past 97 he's maxing

at 97 so i don't think he has a lot more velo in there, but we may see more slider velo, and then he won't have the opportunity to blow up the way he does. And then also, he doesn't command that cutter that well. So just focusing on fewer pitches that he can command better could also make him a much better mid-pitcher. I just like it generally because I think it's smart for them for the postseason to have a guy who can go two or three innings, be a lefty, come in in the second or third inning.

We've just seen that happen with even some of the really good starters have gone out early in the postseason. That happens. Facing the best of the best lineup, have a slightly off day, and you get crushed for it. It's just the way postseason baseball works. But I'd love to see it for Kikuchi. It'd be nice to see him in a role that makes him a lot more effective

because he can be really fun when things are clicking for him, and those shorter outings might be a path to make that happen. And again, it doesn't mean he's a reliever next year. It just means for the rest of this season, they can get something out of him and they can try and fix it. It does mean I'm not as excited for him as a sleeper next year because you can only tap that button so many times. Yeah.

Speaking of buttons, have you ever seen the floor mats that you get for dogs that allow them to communicate with you? Each button has a pre-recorded voice that says something. So then they can tell you, outside, chicken, play ball. You've seen anyone use these before?

No. They're pretty amazing. You should check that out. I'm trying to decide if I want my dog to be able to tell me more things than she already does. Or will it just be the same thing every time? Chicken.

Chicken. I think it would just be the chicken button on repeat. Bacon. Fetch. I want the bacon. Park. Park. It's like, hmm, peanut butter.

Okay, enough of that. Cheese, chicken. Let's put it away. Yeah. I'm intrigued by it, but also a little bit afraid of it. Hitting the button too many times, maybe just think of that. I'm pretty sure that's but also a little bit afraid of it so hitting the button too many times maybe just think of that like I'm pretty sure that's what Hazel would do she would just hit the chicken button all day until

we finally caved just let her have an entire chicken all to herself that is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels you can find us on Twitter Eno's at Eno Saris I am at Derek Van Ryper if you're watching us on YouTube be sure to hit the like button

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Schedule's going to be a little different next week. We'll still have two episodes, but it won't be Monday, Thursday. It'll probably be something like a Wednesday, Friday combo. We're still working on the details of that.

Fortunately for me, I get some time off, so I'm looking forward to that. Hope everybody has a great weekend. We are back with you next week. Thanks for listening.