Rates & Barrels - Freddie Goes to Hollywood, Kris Bryant in Colorado & Seiya Suzuki Picks the Cubs

Episode Date: March 17, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss the latest round of signings, trades and injury updates including Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers, Kris Bryant to the Rockies, Seiya Suzuki to the Cubs, and big trades that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto, and Jesse Winker + Eugenio Suárez to Seattle.  Rundown Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers Kris Bryant to the Rockies!(?) Seiya Suzuki to the Cubs Matt Champan Traded to Toronto Jesse Winker & Eugenio Suárez to Seattle Anthony Rizzo Returns to the Yankees Injury Updates: Jack Flaherty, Chris Sale, Zac Gallen, Jacob deGrom Minor Moves Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Thursday, March 17th. Happy St. Patrick's Day to those of you observing either with your favorite beverages or, you know, corned beef and cabbage or shepherd's pie or bangers and mashed, or if you're just eating tacos today, there's never, never a bad time to eat tacos, whatever you're doing. Well, I don't know about Irish tacos. What would an Irish taco be? Would it be the corned beef and cabbage in a tortilla?

Well, you know what? I would actually, might be eat that. I'll try it. Yeah, I'll try it. I'll try a corned beef, corned beef and cabbage in a tortilla? Well, you know what? I would actually maybe eat that. I'll try it. Yeah, I'll try it. I'll try a corned beef taco. Probably have to go flour tortillas with that. Corn would taste a little weird with corned beef, which is kind of strange because you'd think. Oh, that's why they had a bunch of corned beef out when I was shopping on the weekend.

I actually have some. I do like on the weekend. I actually have some. I do like the seasonal foods. I think we might have some vegetarians over tonight for dinner though, so I don't think I'm going to be making it. I do have to go to the grocery store when we're done. Maybe I'll go Google how to make corned beef and cabbage

and find out it takes all day and I won't have time to do it. Also, haven't seen an Irish restaurant since I moved here. Not that there are Irish restaurants in most places. Also haven't seen an Irish restaurant since I moved here. Not that there are Irish restaurants in most places. But I haven't seen an Irish pub, though, either, that would have those kinds of foods. So there you go. A lot has happened in the last few days.

We just had a 3-0 show drop overnight Wednesday into Thursday. So we talked about some of the real-life implications. So be sure to check that out on our YouTube page or in the Athletic Baseball Show feed. From a fantasy perspective, tons of stuff to talk about. We have more moves, we have more injury updates, we have some minor additions as well that could have a fantasy impact, so we're going to begin with the biggest move of all, at least in terms of a great team getting better and one we didn't get a chance to talk about yesterday because it hadn't happened yet. Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers. It is a thing.

And yes, the Dodgers have maybe the best projected lineup I have seen as an adult baseball analyst. Like, I can't recall looking at a lineup top to bottom with as much talent in it as what the Dodgers have I thought when the Dodgers were first linked to Freeman I thought it was more of a play from the inside from Freeman's camp just to drum up more interest and to create more of a bidding war and here we are the rich get richer Freddie Freeman is in fact a Dodger it's a little bit just from a real life perspective it's a little bit just from a real life perspective it's a little bit sad you know because i feel like the if this was the price i feel like maybe the braves should have paid it yeah but uh you know uh maybe it wasn't the price

that the brave saw you know maybe this is the result of the braves pulling out of the race you know if we don't really know the machinations behind there. But yeah, the Dodgers are now projected to score 5.24 runs a game. That's almost a quarter run higher than the second, which is the Blue Jays. They're projected to win 106. No, that's last year. They're projected to win 96 games, but that's last year they're projected to win 96 games but that's still wicked high because projections don't normally uh project anybody for 100 wins and they're almost there i could look at

this team and tell myself a story that they could be kind of like the the 72 and 10 bulls of the 90s they could win 125 games or something absurd. Ooh, the Mariners. They could pull something like that. Yeah, they could make a run at that, and it'd be pretty fun to watch to see if they can pull it off. I think there's maybe a little bit of a soft underbelly in the back end of the rotation. With Kershaw, Gonsolin, Haney, Bauer, and Price,

you kind of need some things to go right there. They could be running out a bunch of Andre Jackson that they hadn't been planning on. But we know they can go get more, and they've got prospects coming up too. That's true. That's true. I like Mitch White, and Dustin May comes back at some point, and that's a pretty good duo to have in your back pocket who loses out of this?

I figure especially with his elbow injury Muncy's the DH Freeman's the first baseman Taylor gets his time between center and second or left, center, left and second he's still about do you think Taylor loses out on this?

I guess Gavin Lux loses the most out of this. Gavin Lux looks like the biggest loser of all of this, but I guess the way this team is built, their bench right now, based on what Roster Resource has, and this certainly lines up with how I think their bench would work, is Austin Barnes, Hanser Alberto, Matt Beatty, and Gavin Lux. Of those four players,

one of those four is not like the others. Gavin Lux is the one that has quite a bit of ceiling still. Or the super sub. And if anybody gets hurt, there's enough versatility somewhere. If Lux can't play that spot himself, other than like a Will Smith injury, they're going to shuffle things around and Lux is going to play more. So right. Yeah. If Trey Turner gets hurt, Lux plays there. If Taylor gets

hurt, Lux turns into the jack of all trades, but also maybe the starting second baseman, Justin Turner gets hurt. Probably Chris Taylor plays over there a little bit better arm and Lux plays second. If anybody in the outfield gets hurt lux plays second and taylor plays that outfield position so yeah it makes it harder to use gavin lux in your lineups especially in a 12 team league maybe it makes them borderline undraftable in 12 team redraft leagues for right now and for 15 teamers maybe he's more of a bench guy but you also look at this team if you're picking knits in it it's older in the core because Max Muncy, aside from that elbow injury, he's on the wrong side of 30. Justin

Turner, well past the wrong side of 30. AJ Pollock, Freddie Freeman himself, doesn't need a lot of days off, but maybe part of the strategy here is saying, hey, we've got this super team. Let's just keep everybody healthy. Let's make sure we're getting guys regular rest. Let's make sure Mookie Betts' hip doesn't

become a problem again. Maybe just playing everybody a little bit less is also part of their plan. I think that's 100% the plan, load management. One of the things that we talk about here up in San Francisco is that there is a director of health sciences or something. Basically, a person in the Giants that is tasked with keeping everybody healthy, who has like, you know, a PhD and extensive background and knows all the research. So like, that's the idea that I'm sure that the Dodgers have something like that, where there's just somebody who's tasked with monitoring all their sort of health stats,

somebody who's tasked with monitoring all their sort of health stats what they can get uh you know they turn on uh all the tracking systems during batting practice in most parks now so you can actually start to see some some things in batting practice and say oh wait a second that was a little bit weird looking uh we're gonna we're gonna sit justin turner today and justin turn will be like, I don't even know what you're talking about. But they're like, no, we saw something. So I would downgrade the plate appearances for almost everybody on the Dodgers. And it does make it a little bit harder in 12 teams. In 15 teams, I think most of these players are just so good that you're just willing to take the chance and you know maybe take a few you know

you won't get this the semi and 700 plate appearances but you're hoping you get 600 and the last thing that occurs to me when i'm looking at this is it's like a ideal draft and hold roster right we talk about how you want to go like two or three deep at every position in a in a draft and a whole team and like now that i that I look at it, I'm like, wow, the Dodgers go three deep at every position. Yeah. That's, that's been a signature of them for a while, but just playing on a stage of their own really with the way they've built

this roster. And it's a six year deal for Freddie Freeman. I think that was probably the issue with Atlanta, not necessarily the money that Freeman got as a result of, you know, this deal, a six year deal to a 32-year-old, there's going to be some issues maybe on the back end of that.

But there's nothing really in Freeman's profile that suggests that he's aging yet. I mean, if you look at it, the last two years were his best years for swinging strike rate and his best two years for strikeout rate. His two best years for reach rate even you know it's like uh and among his best years for barrel rate so it's like just seems to be aging really well um you know even you know last year was his second best year for stolen bases

which is you know not the best metric but it's like still tells you he's moving well he's not hasn't turned into pool holes yet you know i think he's going, but it's like still tells you he's moving. Well, he's not, hasn't turned into pool holes yet. You know, I think he's going to age much more like Votto than, than a pool holes or Miggy type. The body types are different. The athleticism is different as we've seen what Freeman's done in his early thirties.

So yeah, I think relatively speaking, like yes, typically a first baseman going through his mid and late thirties would scare you. But I think this is about as safe of a profile as you can find in a player that plays that position. I don't think the Dodgers probably wanted the sixth year and they are more about higher AAV and shorter deals. However,

this does maybe help them at some point in the next six years when it comes to the luxury tax because it does even it out as opposed to put it all in one year. Good point. Let's stay in the NL West where the bulk of the activity was on Wednesday. Let's talk about Chris Bryant going to the Rockies, which was spicy. Very strange in the bigger picture. Our friend Paul Sporer said, I like this more than most things the Rockies do,

which I think is fair. And I know I kind of had the immediate reaction of dunking on it on the 3-0 show, and I still don't like it in the sense that they don't seem like they're going anywhere right now. They're still projected to tie for fourth in the division. No, no, it's even worse than that it's worse they were projected to be the worst team in baseball and with the signing they are

one win better than the orioles they're one win better than the orioles okay because i was looking at the fan graphs projected standings and they had them probably about tied with arizona depending on how you projected bryant which it looked good for chris bryant i'll say it again awesome if that's what were you using? Were you using the war? I'm looking at the projected standards right now. I was just doing an estimate of extra wins because of Bryant based on expected war and

where they were projected. I think he's in there. Oh, with war. Okay. But the real stuff aside, and yeah, seven years, $182 million after you paid St. Louis to take Nolan Arenado and took back a return that people have been very skeptical of. It's just strange in that context. Brian going to Colorado stabilizes his short-term value in a way that no other place really would have.

He does have to deal with the difficulties of going in and out of Coors Field and pitches reacting differently, all the things we see hitters deal with. But I think this gives us a few more years of Bryant being an easy 30 plus home run guy with great run production and probably even a good batting average thanks to his new home park. It's just kind of like, well, probably going to see Chris Bryant playing in October very often on this deal. just kind of like, well, probably going to see Chris Bryant playing in October very often on this deal. But for fantasy purposes, this jumps him up maybe into the top 50, top 60 overall. And he was a guy that was previously going 20 to 30 picks later than that. I am interested to see if he loses his third base eligibility this year. Ryan McMahon is a pretty good third baseman. He's young. He fills a need there. In left field, fills a need there in the in left field Bryant would would be replacing Connor Joe most likely uh kind of assuming that Tapia can handle center um I he's not an ideal center fielder uh but

maybe with Bryant and Blackman next to him you know it's like everybody's okay out there uh I just right now in fangraph Sam Hilliard is the lead center fielder, and I think the Rockies have had a million chances to give Sam Hilliard a job, and this doesn't seem like the time that they will finally do it. So my guess is it goes Bryant, Tapia, Blackman in the outfield. Connor Joe gets some time at first and DH and as fourth outfielder. Maybe Hilliard's in that mix as well.

And then across the infield, it's McMahon, Iglesias, Rodgers, Krohn. It's still not a very good team. And they signed a closer and a bat and were one of the worst teams before that. So it's just, it's not enough. Like, look at all the things. The Rangers were one of the worst teams before that so it's just it's not enough like look at all the things the rangers were one of the worst teams last year look at all the stuff they've done and now they're maybe like an average team right i think it takes that kind of support yeah how much the rockies have done comparatively it's also hard aside from all the issues we've

talked about on this show over the years like playing in Colorado presents, it's a very difficult place to win. Maybe far away, and San Diego being willing to spend as a big market team. That creates an uphill battle in the NL West that's not totally unlike what we see for a team like Baltimore in the AL East. So I just think with Colorado, it's going to be how much can they find their own path? How much are they doing behind the scenes to find ways to build a team that actually translates as well as a team can translate in and outside their park?

If they do more, great. I hope they do more and they can maybe pull their version of what Texas is doing. It's funny, those two teams in my mind are always very similar because I can never quite figure out their direction. If Colorado comes out and adds Michael Conforto also this off season and they put him in a corner.

Great. That sounds, that sounds like a significant upgrade. And then they've got like five corner outfielders and no center fielder. Yeah. It's like, so what are you going to do in an important spot? If anything,

if anything I would, you know, if there was any idea I would give the Rockies, it might be murderer's row, you know, just put a bunch of sluggers out there try to score eight runs a game yeah it's one way to go around it but I'm

in on Bryant at an increased price I just think we know enough about the park how it plays his core skills really comes down to his shoulder if he's healthy he's going to return value as a top 50 top 60 overall guy. I'm not sure I'm in on Bryant in keeper leagues like, you know, like, oh, this is the time. Because I think his sale price went up and there is the chance he loses third base eligibility. I think it's kind of a great selling opportunity.

And if you have him in a keeper or a dynasty league right now, like this is a great time to see what you can get for him even if you like him for this season and next season it's still the kind of profile that's relatively easy to find in long-term leagues there's not a lot of speed there anymore move him now while you can because i think it's a relative high point in his value going forward more moves seiya suzuki has a team you know he lands in chicago with the cubs it looked like when we signed off on Monday, there was a chance he was going to San Diego, but the Padres get swooped again. Seiya Suzuki gets five years from the Cubs. 80 million, I believe, was the final dollar figure that I saw. here because from a fantasy perspective to this point, he's been kind of a fringy top 200 overall guy in terms of his ADP, knowing that he's got a contract and where he's going to play. I expect that to jump probably 50 plus picks. But how do you think the skills are going to translate in his first season in the big leagues? He's lost a step or two. So I guess the question mark is there is a question mark on steals. He used to be kind of a high steals guy then he was kind of like seven to eight steals for a couple years in the last couple of years

in japan so he may come over and just steal five to six bags although uh the power the plate control uh the defense those should all be good so he should be the starter in one of the corner outfields i think uh you know he's a guy who struck out 16 of the time and in one of the corner outfields. I think, you know, he's a guy who struck out 16% of the time and walked 14% of the time in Japan. So I expect that strikeout rate to go up. But I'm, you know, hoping is maybe a wrong word, but I believe he could keep it on the right side of league average. League average is 21%. So, you know, I'm thinking maybe he strikes out like 20% of the time, walks 12% of the time and has a 280 average with like a 350 OBP and 25 homers and five steals. That's the kind of player I think he is. Yeah. I'm looking at projections right now. I

know ATC has a projection up for Suzuki, 266, 359, 476 for the slash line. It's a 126 WRC plus that puts them kind of in the Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton range of real life value, but those are all very different fantasy players. I think in terms of low 20s homers and high single digit speed,

that kind of looks more like, geez, this version of Christian Jelic actually is what Seiya Suzuki looks like on paper. Yeah, that's not bad. There's a weird thing going on where the Zips depth chart projection doesn't match an article that Dan Zborski

wrote in which he had a much closer, he had basically the ATC projection projection something like that um i'm thinking that uh the average is a little bit low there but that matches a lot of what i was saying also i don't know why you would give him 500 plate appearances on this cubs team you know oh he's i mean he's gotta play nearly every almost the max volume player should be if he's not in the heart of the order he's probably like a two hitter right i mean like with those plate skills i would think he's

either high in the order or heart of the order yeah i think he's a two three hitter so uh it's a little bit rough on one of my favorite sleepers clint frazier um i still think that with DH in the NL and the age, I don't know if people realized how old all the players that the Cubs found last year were. Rafael Ortega is 30. Patrick Wisdom is 30. Frank Schwindel is 29. So there's a collapse percentage on all three of those guys. So I could see a lineup that has Frazier in left, Happ in center, Suzuki in right. And Ortega and Hayward are the kind of fourth and fifth outfielders. There's also an interesting thing going on in the infield where they signed a an old person simmons is 32 now anderson simmons and they just signed jonathan vr so this is a crowded you know i guess they're trying to mimic in some ways the dodgers lineup

where hey we've got guys who can play everywhere but picking the winners is going to be tough. I've always had a soft spot for Nico Horner, but there's almost zero power that he's demonstrated so far. So I guess Nico Horner is the backup middle infielder, and VR and Wisdom are basically battling for third? Or are they going to go Wisdom, Simmons, VRmons vr and magical and horner they're just like hey you gotta you gotta fight your way onto this i don't think so i think patrick wisdom was a 40 k rate last year that's not that's not gonna stick i if he comes in and cuts that a lot maybe

he hangs around but i could see him getting bounced off the roster i think options are kind of key when you look at how the cubs' playing time is going to shake out, right? I mean, Rafael Ortega came up last year and surprised late in the year. He's probably a seat warmer placeholder for Brennan Davis. At some point this year, we might see Davis.

Yeah, Brennan Davis got to come up, yeah. No options left for Ortega, so he has to stay on the roster. Magical has one option left. Magical's got options. Wisdom, I believe, has options. Nico Horner has options. like harold ramirez he doesn't have one no he's he's so you got a few guys like that that probably hang around at least the beginning of the season just because they have

too many outfielders someone's gonna lose in that outfield someone's like i mean i guess harold ramirez doesn't make this team or Or they just cut Jason Hayward. Is that possible? I don't think that's going to happen. He's not a free agent until 2024. He still has some defensive value, but last year he played 104 games and is basically a replacement level. I think this is bad for Clint Frazier.

That's the clearest indicator to me of a player who's losing something right now because of the resulting crunch from Suzuki landing with the Cubs. And bad for Madrigal and Horner. One of them could end up, or both of them could end up with the minors. The only thing that helps them

is that their weakest place is up the middle. Even if you go Simmons-VR, one of those guys needs to make the team to back up Simmons and VR. Madrigal shouldn't go down, though. Madrigal, for his brief big league career, it's only about a half season so far, sitting 3-7 team with a 3-58 OBP. He's a good defender at second.

You're playing that guy. There's no way they would just send him down. Who's playing second base if they send Magical down? VR. They wouldn't do that for VR. But the Cubs are quietly making those improvements. We wondered what was going to happen when they added Marcus Stroman because that did not make sense in isolation.

They did get an impact bat with Suzuki. If the ADP jumps up into the 125 range for Suzuki later than Jelic and Bellinger and some of those guys. I think I'm still in because I think the upside there is what if more power translates? He hit 38 homers in Japan last year. So the projection of 22 to 25 is like, I mean, it could be 30.

Yeah, it's an interesting profile. There's lots of ways for Suzuki to make value, but that price, it's gone. The early draft season price is absolutely over. A team executive told me he thought this deal was the best deal of the offseason and that Suzuki was a monster, quote unquote. That's pretty interesting. I mean, look, I could see him being an impact guy for a while too. Let's get to a trade. Matt Chapman goes to the Jays, part of the A's demolition that's happening to that roster right now.

And we'll get to the return in just a moment. But Chapman to Toronto, just like Matt Olson, it's an upgrade in terms of home run park factors. The Rogers Center three-year rolling average for home runs is 115. The park in Oakland, Oakland Coliseum, is an 82 park factor. So a big improvement there. We've talked about the flaws. Struggles with the high fastball are a big part of matt chapman's elevated k rate

was coming off of hip surgery last season as well we know we're getting great defense and probably a very high volume of playing time and now he's got a great supporting cast around him even if he's the same guy skills wise that he was a year ago he's probably going to post significantly better numbers just by virtue of the park upgrade and the lineup upgrade around him. Yeah. Also that specific thing he was dealing with, the high fastball, it's just so weird for me that he hasn't found a solution when two of his closest friends, colleagues, Marcus Simeon and Matt Olson in the last two years have figured out high fastballs, and it's been a big part of their explosion.

So I just, there's like a part of me that's like, yo, those two guys figured it out, man. And he talks to them. He texts them. Like, if he figures it out, like, we could be talking about like 260, 38 homers type guy. Yeah, the 18 and 19 numbers from Matt Chapman are very good. We saw average and good OBP in 18. We saw even 36 homers in the year of the rabbit ball. It's absolutely there.

The stat cast numbers are still good. I liked him a lot where he was going this draft season. Of course, this upgrade is going to bring the price up. If he's going kind going in that 140, 150 overall range, I'm still in. I just think there's likely a high volume of playing time in a great spot. I think I'm well over

all the projections. The most optimistic projection is the zips at 230. I think he's over that. I think he's more of a 240 guy. I think 30 home runs with ease. I'd take the over on 80 runs and 80 RBIs too. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Interesting thing going on here.

When he was at his best, he had a 40% fly ball rate in those two years. And then in the last two years, it's jumped over 50%. And we've talked about on this podcast about 50% fly balls being a little bit of a marker for a potential hole up in the zone. If you look at guys who have a 50% fly ball rate, you'll see a lot of really low batting averages and high strikeout rates. And my theory, which is founded in science, is that they've built a swing to lift the low ball. And that's why they can have these high fly ball rates. They've got a very steep vertical attack angle. And there are some people out there

who think vertical attack angle is the number one most important thing about batters. And I disagree. I think it's bat speed, which he also has. But I also think that extreme vertical angles produce lines like he's got. And if you look at guys like Schwarber, Bellinger, other guys in the past they've developed a second type of swing a B swing a C swing a way

to do something on the on the high fastball and for Simeon it was hit the top half of the ball on four seamers and that's led to an explosion in his power stats and for olsen it was he found a little red pitching machine that could simulate four-seam uh rise really well and he got better he got a lot better at four at four-seamers in the top of the zone that's a big part of his strikeout rate going down so uh like i just i think did like don't you think chapman is trying hit the top of the ball off of the little red machine like right now like so i i'm hoping that training methods uh lead to something and worst case scenario where you're buying him i think you're buying a 230 hitter with a bunch of power yeah so it's an even better buy now you're taking on some known average risk

i think compared to some of the catchers we talked about in the catcher preview, you're getting it over a much larger volume of playing time. So it's a, it's a heavier weight. If the average doesn't come back. So you have to at least account for that a little bit as you take advantage of it. Potential for improvement. You know,

a lot of these catchers are not going to improve their batting average. I just, I look back at the O swings and the K rates we saw a couple of years ago, 21.9% in the year of the rabbit ball, 23.7% K rate the year before that. His reach rate's never been bad. Yeah. It's just a whole inside the zone high, you know?

I just can't imagine that that is something that the Jays are unable to fix. Exactly. The return, Kevin Smith, who I think we talked about on this show at some point in the last few weeks, he goes to Oakland. Best prospect that A's got in all this, and he's got some serious flaws. He's got flaws, but he made a swing change and put together a nice season in AAA.

Does all the things that we want from a fantasy perspective. He showed the ability to hit for average, showed power, was an efficient base dealer. 50% fly ball rate. Yes. Not every year. His best year in AA. Oh, that wasn't his best year.

That was his worst year, so he kind of came up off that maybe he learned that lesson a 144 wrc plus a good triple a good result for him at triple a last year obviously can play a ton in oakland there's jobs available pretty much at every position right now you know what i would care about in spring training for kevin smith his strikeout rate people like to say that nothing matters in spring training but strikeout rate is something that becomes stable pretty quickly and two to three weeks of strikeout rate does have signal in it so if you can follow along i mean he is the type of guy that you may like may not even be like let's say you've drafted you may not be available until you do your first fab run right and so a lot of people won't like might not be looking at him like

for because his projections are for like a 220 average or whatever right um and so he may be ignored in some fab runs or you might be able to pick him up for single digits and the time that i would if i if he was striking out 24 25 in the in the spring, I would put a dollar on him or a few dollars on him, even in a 15-team league, because then you have the chance of buying a guy with a 250 average and power and speed. The pitchers going to Oakland, Gunnar Hoagland, first rounder, recovering from Tommy John surgery, could easily be an impact guy.

He's got an injured guy. They've done this before. They do this a lot. They trade for injured prospects and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. A few years ago, James Caprillion was hurt when they acquired him in that deal from the Yankees. There's talent there. It's just a question of getting it back.

I thought he would never get healthy again. That situation, I think, was a little more up in the air than Hoagland's. He could be an impact guy later on. The other two pitchers, though, Kirby Sneed is a 27-year-old left-handed reliever, probably a guy they're going to throw in that bullpen right away because they need innings. And then Zach Logue, a starter that I think did see just a—he didn't debut. Sneed debuted last year. But looks like a big league-ready, at least back-end sort of starter.

They must have changed something about him. In 2019, he had 7K9, and that's sort of what he'd been doing for a while. And then when he came back out of COVID, he had a 15 and 12% swinging strike rate. So I think he must have spent 2020 shaping his pitches and came out with something different. Yeah. The pitch grades are really good on the changeup,

decent on a cutter, and he's got above average command. So I think Logue could surprise us. I mean, you have to look at every opportunity in Oakland right now and try and convince yourself that it could go right just because it's an opportunity without a lot of competition. And if you have a guy that was stuck in Toronto

and wasn't going to play, he would have been a little bit buried in prospect rankings. I'm not trying to defend what the A's are doing, but they went the quantity route and some of these guys are going to play right away. Right, and I think it's easier to assess what's happening on the hitting side than it is necessarily on the pitching side

because we just keep hearing rumors about Benaiah and Montas. And if those guys, Benaiah and Montas, are gone, then Logue might be in the rotation. I wouldn't be buying Dalton Jeffries. Kaprelian is not one of my favorites. Irvin is like a good play-at-home guy. It would be a pretty bad rotation, according to my model and to my opinion.

But they have made some strides in their pitching development, and I could see them, you know, somebody popping. Maybe Logue is that guy. He could start in the rotation, huh? It's possible, even if they keep Minaya and Montas for now, that Logue gets a spot in there. I don't think Paul Blackburn is locked in.

Yeah, and Dalton Jeffries has like a 60-stuff plus. Yeah, Jeffries still has options left, too, for whatever that's worth. I mean, they added Brent Honeywell. They're trying to stretch him out. AJ Puck's being stretched out right now. It's a scene. That's right now. It's a scene. That's a mess. It's a scene in A's camp.

I'm still happy I got Chad Pinder. He's not listed at the starter, but in deep leagues, I have to think that he's going to play a fair amount somewhere. Eric Thames is the favorite for the DH job there right now, but he's a non-roster invitation. So I could see Pinder playing at first and Brown DH-ing, or Pinder is just an often-playing fourth outfielder that also plays on the infield.

I think we'll have a handful of A's that end up playing a ton that become early- season waiver pickups that are difference makers. And I think Kevin Smith is on that list. Pinder could be on that list. I'm curious what Billy McKinney was added. I mean, there's just a bunch of guys that have been bouncing around the league

on and off rosters, struggling to actually hold even a share of a job that now might just have 500 plate appearances in front of them if they can produce early on. Pache's spring training, spring strikeout rate, also interesting to me. Yeah, absolutely. More to come on the A's, I'm sure, as they possibly add a few more players in the weeks ahead. This other trade, I don't really understand what the Reds are doing.

Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez were flipped to the Mariners. Without even getting into the return, going back the other way, I do think from a fantasy perspective, this is bad for my Jesse Winker is an MVP candidate bid because he's losing park factors here. I mean, Suarez is too. Great American Ballpark. It's not home run so much.

It's the other stuff. Right. Well, it's a little bit of both, but Great American Ballpark has the best home run park factor looking at the last three years, a 130 overall mark, right? And Seattle T-Mobile Park is close to neutral at 98. So you do have to shave off home runs from both of these players. What do you make of them, though, being in a situation now that actually is becoming a more balanced lineup in Seattle?

I think we looked at it maybe two months ago, and it seemed a little top-heavy, and there was some wish-casting happening there with young players taking big strides and taking on more prominent roles. Winker and Suarez give them a lot more short-term stability offensively and take some pressure off those young outfielders that have been trying to break in. Because Winker's ADP is dropping precipitously as the projections change to more of a 270, 275 hitter from like a 300 hitter or a 290 hitter.

As that happens, his ADP goes down. There might be a moment where it's smart to buy back in. The question I have is where is that moment and are the Mariners going to play him against lefties? I think maybe they will because Kyle Lewis is not going to be ready for the season, it sounds like. He isn't expecting to be ready to start on opening

day when lewis is up i think there is a at least a natural platoon there i don't think that lewis is relegated to platoon duty but um you know he'll dh and he can platoon in left field off of Winker if they think that's the best move. But the outfield is Winker, Kalanick, Hanager, and then the DH to open the season is Toro. Yeah, I think they could still shuffle some things around, though. I mean, Lewis coming back eventually gives them one more quality bat to mix through those spots. And I guess the question would be, if Winker's not going to play against lefties, who's actually taking that playing time?

That's what I'm saying. Like, it might be Lewis when he's healthy, but Lewis is not healthy to start. Yeah, I think they're going to let Winker play against lefties. I'm more concerned about the park factors and the reduced power ceiling. That also dovetails with what you're saying, is that this is a better lineup, and if he's going to play every day, then the 77 runs and rbi totals are low right i think that's where the projections might be missing right now so it's going to be a funny thing how far does he fall he fall 20 or 30 overall picks is that enough of a discount or are you still going to look at other players in that

range and say yeah jesse winker's fine but this other guy also steals some bases or this other guy maybe brings more raw power to the table. Suarez, you know, I think there was some bounce back potential that you highlighted on our third base preview a while back. A little harder to see it. Playing time doesn't seem like it's that much of a concern. I mean, Toro's versatile and can play all over, but I think they expect Suarez to be a 90% of the time starter, if not even an everyday straight-up guy. Yeah, it's kind of amazing. a bunch of batting average from him. The bat says he's going to be 10 to 13% better at the plate with the bat than league average and be an asset defensively, which I think makes sense, which would make him an above average player and has a better projection from the bat and the bat X than, let me make sure of this, Abraham Toro. uh toro becomes toro loses i think toro loses even

more than winker toro becomes the guy who gets moved around unless he steals unless he makes frazier the guy that moves around that's that's almost a there's a that's a position battle you know it's i guess an old school position battle too not where they i think there's going to be a winner and a loser between Frazier and Toro. The other side of this, I think, is actually sort of interesting because Mike Moustakis is not a redundancy anymore. It really never made sense for them to sign him a few off seasons ago when they did it because they didn't have a clear place to play him.

I know that was before the Jonathan India breakout, but Mike Moustakis at second base when you have Suarez at third and no universal DH back then, that was just weird. But Moustakis is the everyday third baseman now. So that path is cleared up. It looks like they're going to play Jake Fraley a lot because they're clearly fixated on not spending money.

So Fraley's at least a big side platoon guy. Like I said this on the 3-0 show, I think this is galaxy braining stuff where they're like, oh, everyone's going to think we're selling off, but we're actually buying. Look, we bought Mike Miner and we bought Donovan Solano

and we're going to be like the Rays and we're going to have players who can play everywhere and we're going to be cheaper and younger and blah, blah, blah. And I'm just like, no, man, you're worse. You're definitely worse. You're just worse. You're cheaper and you're worse.

You're worse at a time when you weren't bad and you're still not terrible, but you're going the wrong direction at a time when you easily could have justified going the other way. I don't know if this is a vote of confidence for the health of Nick Senzel, but being thinner in the outfield certainly makes him more important. Can Fraley play center? I think Fraley could probably play center. He's got speed. In that park, too, being a smaller park,

I think that takes some of the demands of the position off. All the defensive numbers are kind of short sample. Seattle did play him out there for 132 innings, but that was about a third of the playing time he got in the corners. And the depth charts put him in the corners. Interesting to put Senzel in center coming off of knee surgery. Maybe it'll just be Senzel in left and Fraley in center to begin to see how Senzel's doing. But that's some combination that's going on there.

I think a big winner is Aristides Aquino and Tyler Naquin, who seem like they're starters, either at DH or in right field or both. When I look at this depth chart, I still see too much playing time given to Kyle Farmer. I think Jose Barrero is going to take that job and be the starting shortstop from day one. So I think that's a little bit of an interesting thing going on there. I like Justin Dunn, Vlad Gutierrez, and Reverson Martin,

who are the 4, 5, and 6 starters there right now. But Hunter Green is coming for them. So Justin Dunn has two weeks to make his case almost. I truly don't understand why they traded Amir Garrett for Mike Miner. That is very, very strange. I mean, they let Wade Miley go to the Cubs on waivers early on. Same money, slightly better projection. It seems unnecessary, but hey, do you, Reds, do you.

The other player that I think is is winning in all of this it it's part of it's just the the injury that we've uh talked about a little bit Lucas Sims being possibly hurt right now does clear a path for Art Warren maybe to be the early season closer so I just want to throw that out there again since everyone's chasing saves but I think you're right here Sims says Saturday he's all clear regarding any potential. I know, but I just come on. What were you saying? I think you think I'm right. I'd like to hear that. I think you're right about Barrero. I just, I can't buy Kyle Farmer as an everyday shortstop. And what I'm going to do, I'm going to ask Keith Law about this on the athletic baseball show for Friday,

the returns for players in general right now, if you're a team paring down payroll, it just seems like these teams are getting very little back. I know Brendan Williamson is an interesting pitching prospect and maybe he's not that far away from contributing, but this seemed odd to me.

So I want to know if there's something we're possibly missing with some of the prospects that were moved. They would have gotten more for Winker if they hadn't put Suarez in.

And they could have got more for Suarez by just letting him play and possibly bouncing back. Recovering his value, yeah. That's the part that I just cannot get over that as more time passes. How about this? Anthony Rizzo back to the Yankees on a two-year deal.

A full season for him in that park as a left-handed hitter. A guy that doesn't strike out a lot. Do you actually like this fit even though Yankee fans seem to be a little underwhelmed? What's wrong with Luke Voigt? Is it because he's a left-handed hitter, a guy that doesn't strike out a lot. Do you actually like this fit, even though Yankee fans seem to be a little underwhelmed? What is wrong with Luke Voigt? Is it because he's a right-hander? What is wrong? It's hurt a lot, I guess.

I like him. I think he should play more. But Rizzo's back, so how does this play out? This is a great place, a great landing for Rizzo, I think. It wasn't super obvious in the seasonal splits last year with the 200 plate appearances he played there. It's not like he got a big boost in power, but I have to think that longer term,

given more chances to hit the ball over that short porch, this left-hander is going to do it. I think it's a really good landing spot for him. is going to do it. So I think it's a really good landing spot for him. I'm surprised that the projections haven't added more power than they have, but you can see that most of the projections are for better ISOs than he's had in 2020 and 2021. So there is going to be a park boost there. I kind of like, you know, I think steamers is actually attainable here. 257 with 29 homers and six stone bases. That's going to make him a value where he's been drafted. They are still a strange team just in terms of how they're constructed.

We talked about that a bit on the 3-0 show. Little on the old side, but Rizzo brings that dynamic of not striking out a lot. Which Isaiah kind of for Leffa does too. Maybe that was something they wanted to do yeah i mean freddie freeman could have done that too but two years for rizzo versus six years for freeman like there's there's a pretty big difference there and and aav is about 10 million difference as well so you know if you're trying to do something else later which the yankees still could be carlos correo stay out there story is still. Yeah, there's another move out there, man.

Because look, they're a full zero offensively at catcher. They're a below average offensive team at shortstop. And Isaiah Conner-Falefa would be a Yankee utility guy, like a really, really good utility guy. And they might need that with Josh Donaldson on that team and Aaron Judge on that team and Aaron Hicks coming back from injury I think Isaiah kind of left as a guy you can move around would be so useful for this team so I am still staring at shortstop but maybe they think Peraza can come

up and that Volpe is right behind him so maybe this is just how the Yankees stay under the luxury tax again and still put a good team out there. Maybe. And, of course, the lingering question, and we haven't talked about it on the pod yet, and it's not really worth getting into that much right now, is there's still some uncertainty about vaccination requirements and being able to play.

We saw this in the NBA with Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn. We're waiting for a resolution on that. The judge would be eligible to play 70 games this season uh because of the toronto and new york rules about that yeah so things could change between now and opening day in three weeks you're seeing it societally right like you know all of the mass mandates are kind of falling away and uh you know there's a lot of there's a lot of change happening week to week my kids uh no longer have to wear masks at school for the first time. And we locally here have been among the most stringent, um, lockdowns, mass mandates, all

those things. So I have to feel like we're behind most of the rest of the country in those, in that matter. So, you know, it is interesting to, to watch the mayor in New York, try to squirm his way through this. And Kyrie Irving on the Nets is putting pressure on him publicly and showing up to games, you know, massless, unvaccinated as a fan to kind of prove his point. And so, you know, there may be movement in the next couple of weeks even. Yeah, just one of those things.

I know people have been curious about it. I don't know i get the sense the yankees think they can push some sort of change if they're adding rizzo and rostering players that are key parts of their lineup who would be unable to play if the rules don't change so we'll see what happens eddie rosario goes back to atlanta they're really doing a good job running it back with basically the same core they had. They had Colin McHugh to the bullpen as well.

Except Adam Duvall is the starting center fielder. That's still pretty weird, right? Eddie Rosario is a bad defensive outfielder. Marcel Azuna is a bad defensive outfielder. Adam Duvall is going to be a bad defensive center fielder i'm sorry like i maybe there's some numbers that make me wrong but i i it's a it's it's a look it's a thing and they got alex dickerson right now at dh at the top of the dh step chart it's it's weird it's weird to me a little bit i wonder if drew waters is going to get more playing time in the

big leagues than than we're expecting like if that's part of their plan i mean pache is gone or or heredia waters wasn't that good at triple a last year i mean there was 28 steals yay we like steals rca play center this is a weird depth chart man it's weird for me you could have one hole there i guess rc is listed as a backup in five positions but you're also you're also banking on acuna playing center field the way you're built right now that's what i'm saying unless you add someone else later and i i'm actually so the acuna thing is pretty interesting to me i'm trying to read between the lines a lot of this stuff and uh you know they're saying acuna is like you know oh May 1st and but if you

if you actually read some of the specifics sometimes they say in the field so I kind of feel like it's going to be Rosario Duvall Dickerson with Acuna at DH and that may happen before May 1 he's walking without a limp he's you know you know, he's been playing. He's doing agility drills. Like I could see them, you know, a couple of weeks from now he's in spring training games and, you know, maybe he needs a week or two rehab stint and late April he's back in the lineup. And if that's true, then I think, you know, people docking him three, four, five rounds are, are going to be leaving money on the table him three four five rounds are are going to be uh leaving money on the table yeah outfield defense is going to be kind of brutal while they go through

that I mean maybe even after it but it's gonna be brutal the playing time might be a little bit better than expected with Rosario I mean yeah clearly the success he had in the postseason is something to be excited about and the the projections, we've talked about them, I think, maybe a month or so ago on the outfield preview. The projections seem reasonable. I think the playing time might actually come up a bit lighter than we're accustomed to. If you look at what he did from 2017 to 2019 in Minnesota when he was just under 600 plate appearances every year,

he was really, I think, a good accumulator at that time. And I wonder if that's going to start to tail off just a little bit being on a team that has aspirations to repeat as World Series champions. The one thing that is good for him, even as bad as Rosario is with the glove, I kind of think that he's going to be better than Marcelo Zuna, Alex Dickerson. That's the bar he has to clear. That's the bar he has to clear to be out there. And if he can clear that, and I think he can, then he's the guy who's going to play. Dickerson's going to be a real backup. I'm sorry that I put Dickerson in right field. I was saying Rosario, Duvall, Ozuna with Dickerson at DH till Acuna comes back. Acuna at DH when he comes back for

a couple of weeks, and then Acuna starts filtering into the field and pushing Ozuna, I think, to DH. That's the good news for Ozuna, you know, having outfield eligibility for the next season. Yeah, it does help him retain that, given some of the limitations on the other corners of their roster. Jock Peterson to the Giants, that's just going to look weird from a uniform perspective. I think it's a good fit, just in terms of the success they've had with hitters, but as a left-handed hitter especially, not the best fit park-wise, even though they've had some success turning a lot of guys around the last two seasons.

It looks like it's going to be the full platoon situation again there where they've got, I think, a platoon at Peterson and Ruff at DH. I would say there's probably a platoon at LaStella Flores at second. Although LaStella, I saw him hitting a driveline. So I'm a little surprised that the news is he's behind from his Achilles comeback, but maybe hitting is possible and the field isn't. But even then, I think you could do a... What's the other platoon you could do? Florizan and Tyra Estrada and Dubon are all righties,

so that's not a platoon. In the outfield, Wade and Slater? I guess you're probably sharing a spot with Peterson and Austin Slater. Yeah, Peterson and Slater. Crawford might be in a platoon with Tyra Estrada if Estrada makes it. They were already sitting Crawford against lefties. Yeah. Yeah, Darren Ruff probably sharing a spot with Lamont Wade Jr.

If I had to sort of pair him with someone. I can't believe this team won so many games last year. And I kind of think that they're going to win more games than people think too, just because they have this super interchangeable, super weird roster. But the most amazing thing is that this team scored so many runs, I think.

I still can't fully unpack how they did it. And if they do it again without buster posey and with the roster as it's currently constructed i think i'll be almost as surprised as i was by what they did in 2021 can't be quite that surprised because that because we'll be doing it again but still i mean yeah like i've seen it once so it's not totally implausible uh andrew mccutcheon goes to the brewers based on the comments made by David Stearns. They expect him to be the primary DH. I think the clear loser in this case is probably Keston Hira. If you start thinking about all the playing time,

they're playing him a little bit in the outfield this spring. I don't really know if that's going to open up a path of playing time for Hira. I almost wonder if there's another trade coming for the Brewers, like if they might have something up their sleeve between now and opening day. Yeah, what would you trade for if you were them? Would you trade for a pitcher to push a Hauser or a Lauer to sixth?

A starting pitcher? Would you trade? What would you trade for? It kind of fits right now pretty well with Hira on the outside. Unfortunately, you know what I mean? It kind of fits right now pretty well with Hura on the outside, unfortunately. You know what I mean? You have players everywhere.

You have Tyrod Taylor as the primary backup at all three outfield positions, and McCutcheon can play there in a pinch. And you have Urias backing up the middle infield and playing third, and then Brousseau backing him up there probably. So I don't know. Go get Joey Votto. That's what they should do. Trade Rowdy and Hira for Votto.

Something like that. Yeah, that would be kind of crazy. I'd like something like that if they can afford it. I'd have fun with something like that. I mean, it's not good not good for here i liked him as a late dart prior to this move i think mccutcheon is obviously good enough to hold a large share of that playing time and not necessarily a guy that's going to play in center field if something happens to lorenzo kane i think a lot of that playing time still goes to tyrone taylor but he gets a little bit of a ding as a result of mccutcheon being there too because they can't float the dh quite as often having someone who's sort of dedicated toward that spot

now on the roster. Yeah, that's true. But McCutcheon is not so far gone that he can't play the outfield. I mean, they can still call him the primary DH and play him on the outfield sometimes. Unless they think they can jam Hunter Renfro in center field or something like that in the event of a cane injury. I hope they're not planning on doing that. They did it with Avi Garcia, though, so maybe they'll do it again with his replacement. He's a little bit better defensively than you might expect. Big arm.

Corey Dickerson to the Cardinals. Not good news for Lars Neutbar, as we were tweeting before the show. Gosh. we were tweeting before the show. Gosh. I'm hoping that Newt Barr is on his way for a pitcher to Oakland.

Just a hope. Not a source thing. No. Oh, yeah. He's totally the type that would fit in Oakland. A guy who's ready to play in the big leagues. And maybe excessive, maybe extra for this Cardinals team now that they've got Yepez, Nutbar, and Gorman knocking on the door,

and they said they would only bring them up if there was regular ABs for them. And right now with Dickerson, you go O'Neal, Bader, Carlson, Dickerson at DH, Edmund at second, and you don't have ABs for any of those guys. Yeah, I think what we had previously was maybe Paul DeYoung getting a lot of DH playing time and Edmundo Sosa being more of a glove for shortstop.

Now that looks like a true position battle in all this, and Neutmar, I think, gets cast into a typical fourth outfielder role for the time being. I think DeYoung wins, dude. I think DeYoung wins. There fourth outfielder role for the time being. I think DeJong wins, dude. I think DeJong wins. There's some bounce back potential there. They've said something too. Maybe it's on his page.

But I think they are a great fit for a trade with Oakland right now because Jack Flaherty is getting a second opinion on his shoulder. I'm very worried about Flaherty. I think as much as a player who has some uncertainty on him can be undraftable for me at this point, Flaherty has become undraftable until we know more about

what's going on with his arm. And I don't... You look at Dakota Hudson's line and you're like, oh my gosh, 249 major league innings, 314 ERA, this is a good pitcher. But I don't think he is. No, I think they would look a lot better

with Frankie Montas or Sean Minaya there. And I think they see themselves as legit contenders in the NL Central. They should. Somebody has to compete with the Brewers and maybe the Cubs are in the mix there too. Clearly the Reds didn't want that responsibility based on how they have gone about things.

But Flaherty, not the only injury to be worried about right now chris sale has a stress fracture in his ribs we're going to the injuries portion of the rundown we're gonna just we're gonna just get through it we're gonna find a way sale's gonna open the year on the il i i had no risk i had no argument against sale this draft season. I just had that internal in the moment sort of thing when he would come up, we'd get to that fourth round range where he'd like to go. And I'd say, I'm going to do something else. I didn't have a clear reason why I just didn't want to draft him. Not because I thought this was going to happen or anything like that. I'm not saying I was afraid of injury risk. I just couldn't follow through on Chris Sale. And now, a stress fracture in the rib cage? I mean, how long do you think we're looking at before he's actually pitching in games again? I don't know. It always has to do with the particulars of how much of a gap there is and how much of a fracture there is. Bone sometimes actually heals worse than ligaments

because it's harder to get blood to the area. It just depends on how bad of a fracture it is. My guess would be he misses two to four weeks. Maybe get some back in late April. He could still maybe get 25 starts or something. 20 starts, 25 starts. I'm a little bit agreeing with you because I had Sale and Verlander

on my planning sheet for AI Labor as my ace. And then both of them went into the low 20s and around 21 i was like yo i'm out so uh ended up with burrios yeah previously i had sale as my 15th ranked starting pitcher if we're say he's going to miss a month right now and he's back late April, early May, if 25 starts is a kind of a cap on what he can do, that bumps him down probably to where Zach Gallin and Lance McCullers used to be, like around 40th among starting pitchers for me. Those guys both probably are coming down based on news that we've since learned about where they're at too. Chris Saylor, Clayton Kershaw all the way down to like 48 where I have Kershaw. I think I would take Kershaw for sale at this point. Because the news is at least better on him. But that's probably about right in terms of innings expectations

like you have the injury that you already know about versus the lingering one. You teased some other news. Zach Gallin, shoulder bursitis? Yeah, he had that earlier in the offseason, and he threw from a mound on Tuesday. This is the hardest thing about parsing injury news right now is this was a problem. It might not be a problem anymore.

Here's what he's doing right now. How much do you care about the thing that he may have recovered from and had previously i did i make a joke like all these people were coming back and be like oh by the way i had surgery yeah right yeah i threw you the clip from tommy boy when tommy's walking through the factory with his dad and some of the the business partners and he asked one of the guys how he's doing. And the guy said, I had a kidney removed last April, but I still have the other one. It's just like, that's everybody reporting to spring training right now.

Yikes. I don't know if I'm actually downgrading Gallon a lot right now because he's throwing from a mound already. He's doing the thing that's pretty close to being on schedule. I think I have Gallin ahead of Kershaw and Sale. He's at least in the same cluster. The specific order for me to be determined based on further updates on Zach Gallin. Some good news on the pitching front. Actually, two items of good news.

Jacob deGrom in line for opening day April 7th in Washington. I saw Britt tweeting from Mets camp on Thursday morning, and the reactions that Mets hitters were giving deGrom seemed very encouraging. It was a lot of wows as they walked back to the dugout. Were you at deGrom now? At this point, creeping up, he was. Jacob deGrom was. Where was Jacob? He was. Jacob deGrom was. Where was Dick?

He was sitting just outside the top five. He was at eight previously. I think I'm flipping him with Zach Wheeler, who was previously sixth, or at least moving him ahead of Wheeler, who also, as we learned earlier this week, was dealing with some shoulder stuff earlier in the offseason. His availability, also because of an illness, is now up in the air for opening day.

Burns, Cole, Woodruff, Scherzer, Buehler, DeGrom is my current top six among pitchers. DeGrom has that up arrow nudging him up to the point where we get to a point two weekends from now if DeGrom's still just cruising through spring, he's healthy, the velo's there, the life's there on all of his pitches, I think he could probably top out

as my third-ranked pitcher. There's still elevated underlying concern, but I've got him four. That's why I had my last one. I could see him finishing as a late first-rounder. Woodruff just seems like such a horse, dude. And his injury projections are better. Mm-hmm. It's hard for me to move him against a horse.

Fair enough, but I do think the people who play a lot of nfbc leagues have been putting this out there for a while that they see a scenario in which jacob degrom goes late first round once the main event weekend gets here and he's putting the foundation in place to make that a reality based on how spring training has started for him how about this one mike clevenger expects to be ready for the start of the season. Is he creeping up for you? Yes, but does he expect to be ready for the rest of the season? Oh, sorry.

Arm health jokes are not fair. Yeah, that's mean. No, it's just, I mean, I think that there is risk beyond just coming back from this. You know, he's been a fairly injured pitcher. Mm-hmm. And it's not always the arm. Like, it's, you know, it's been other things.

I've had him slightly ahead of ADP and have drafted him zero times so far this draft season. I think about six opportunities to do so. I think he fits in with the good injured pitchers cluster, even with the good news. I think he's kind of in the Gallon Kershaw sale bucket for now because we're still looking at good ratios, good strikeout rates over a reduced number of innings. They have to be careful with his workload. They can't break him in the return. So good news, encouraging news. Maybe it makes me more likely to take him where he goes, but if he jumps up three or four rounds

from where he was going, I'm probably still out because I'm just a tick below where the field seems to be on Clevenger. I'm currently looking at him in my ranks. I think I have him around 60th. No, it looks like 65th. He's still draftable, but there's so many more healthy people ahead of him. I'm a lot more confident in Luis Severino by comparison.

And I think if the ADP ends up leveling out, it's an easy choice for me to take Severino. And even at the earlier price, I like Severino better. Oh, that's funny. I have Severino two spots ahead of him. I'm more like ten spots ahead. Severino is my injured pitcher who showed us a little

bit at the end of last season. I guess Verlander's also in this. Verlander's up in his own stratosphere. But if you said pick two, Verlander and Severino are the injured in 2021 pitchers that I really like as good, healthy pitchers in 2022. Yeah, I can see that. Other injury news to pass along,

Griffin Canning opening the season on the 60-day IL, Mike Soroka doing that as well. I think Canning opening on that long-term IL is a little more of a surprise, relatively speaking. Soroka, maybe we get him back at some point mid-season. Yeah, I was called a setback for Canning. Yeah, I'm not feeling real good about that. Reese Hoskins looks like he's on track

for the start of spring training games. Just good news there since he was coming back from, I believe it was a core muscle surgery for Hoskins. So he seems to be healthy at this point. Abdominable. Abdominable. Abdominable snowman, Reese Hoskins so he seems to be healthy at this point abdominal abdominal abdominal snowman Reese Hoskins abdominal surgery good one good one you know well done Brendan McKay is in Ray's camp and fully healthy kind of a guy I'd forgotten about just because it's been such a meandering road for him to to get healthy yeah I've got a an injury update uh or just an update from race camp that was

texted to me by a friend of the podcast jason collette uh the rays kevin cash was impressed by the live batting practice of luis patino ryan yarbrough and jalen beaks and said yarbrough's velocity was up those things actually matter in tandem with mckay because yarbrough is maybe the softest spot in that rotation and even ahead of McKay you still and outside of the top five you still have Yanni Chirinos and Luis Patino if not Josh Fleming so maybe McKay can leapfrog Fleming and become the eighth starting pitcher on the squad which means he will get maybe 50 to 75 innings this year yeah i would say mckay probably healthier than yanni trinos today too so maybe that gives him a little bit of a leg up the underlying numbers were better than the results from mckay in that debut back in 2019 56 to 16k to walk in 49 innings but a 514 era and a 141 whip really good numbers from numbers from him in the minors.

I just think they have to look at him as a guy that's probably more of a glue guy, up and down, can do a lot of different things, but over under 80 innings this season at the big league level for Brendan McKay. I mean, is that a reasonable place to put a line like that? Yeah, and I'd take the under. Yeah, so I think he's more of a in-season waiver pickup if

the situation breaks the right way rather than someone you're drafting and and stashing for the time when he has that opportunity trevor larnak is healthy again some good news there out of twins camp i meant to lump this in with the other cardinals issues but alex reyes had an ejection due to soreness in his shoulder. And on top of that, the Cardinals revealed they might opt for a committee approach to saves this season. So Giovanni Gallegos, good pitcher who is rosterable regardless, just getting expensive in snake drafts. That's what makes it a little bit tricky to pay the premium for him is this uncertainty

about just how this committee might actually work. just how this committee might actually work. Yeah, I think it's Gallegos. I don't know why. I'm sorry. I just think it's Gallegos. Could be. Hicks couldn't hit the side of the barn in the AFL. Reyes is hurt.

And Genesis Cabrera is good, but I don't think he needs to take that job from Gallegos. Yeah, I just think it comes down to how much they want to be like a Tampa Bay or a Seattle because they certainly could take that approach or a Minnesota. They have the Cardinals way, dude. I think they're rewriting that.

I think they're adding chapters to the book and re-releasing it. Because that's what you do, I think, when you write a book. I've never written one. I have no're adding chapters to the book and re-releasing it. Because that's what you do, I think, when you write a book. I've never written one. I have no idea how to write a book. Jake Myers will open the season on the aisle for the Astros. He's working back from a shoulder injury, so they have some playing time available in center field.

A whole cast of players. Jose Siri, Louis Brinson, who we mentioned is a minor move. A bunch of guys competing for that playing time. Some minor moves, other additions. How about Matthew Boyd for the Giants? Obviously not going to pitch anytime soon because he's coming back with injury.

Home of problem guy in that park? Yeah. Once he comes back, I'm pretty excited about Matthew Boyd. Yeah, I wonder. I wonder. And I think we talked about this a little bit on 3-0 show that what replaces the option a guy a million times will be the IL game or more of the IL game.

And it's pretty obvious to see with Matthew Boyd and Carlos Martinez on the team that there's going to be a lot of IL movement on that pitching staff. Yes, they have already committed themselves to using the IL as a way of having an expanded roster, that is. They've projected their IL moves. It's there.

It is right out there for everyone to see. I mentioned Mike Miner to the Reds earlier. I think he's mostly an NL-only league sort of guy. Hard to stream him in that park, given some of the past issues he's had with home runs and given the way Great American Ballpark boosts those home runs. Cubs certainly have a type. They added Steven Brault to the mix at the back of their rotation.

Roman Quinn ended up in Miami. Maybe some cheap speed there. Always if he finds playing time, but just a long road. Kind of more of a bench guy at this point. I think it's pretty clear that's really all he's going to bring to the table. The Dodgers may use a bullpen committee. This came up, I think, with a Blake Trinan note that I saw posted by Rotowire.

It makes sense because they have plenty of relievers. I think the funny response to my tweets about that were, who's getting within three runs of the Dodgers? How many save situations are they going to have? That's not bad fair fair point i just i see trinan is just clearly i mean as much as i like daniel hudson and phil bickford uh and bruised our gratterall like trinan trinan is in particular for bruised our gratterall is just like in the superior version to bruise our gratterall like they're very similar and Trinan is better. Graderall shows the ball and doesn't have the same breaking ball that Trinan does.

Hudson and Bigford are slightly different. They're more sort of foreseemed north-south than Trinan. But the only thing I could see is sometimes bringing in Vessia against lefties. That's about all I got. To me, I don't know what that update is about i think trying it as a closer unless they sign jansen i feel the way about blake trying that you feel about giovanni gallegos i think trying to goes a little bit later in

drafts too so i'm more more comfortable with the idea of missing who's gonna actually take that job right and look committees are not the worst thing in the world. If it ends up being what the giants did last year, someone gets 30 saves and the other person gets 10 and someone else gets five, then fine. 30 saves is fine. We're happy with that. Speaking of save situations,

some uncertainty now about the role of Tyler Wells might be using a multi-inning role. So the hope that he was going to be the closer might be dashed because they think they can get more innings out of him. That means Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott, some other guys could emerge to be the primary source. My favorite is Scott. The dark horse is Dylan Tate,

who added, well, actually that's, that's interesting. He's, he's up to, he's up to 95, 96 at driveline. The bigger deal would be if he changed some shapes on his pitches

because he's a bit of a ground ball guy, and that's not exactly what you want on your closer. So I think he's a bit of a dark horse. People mention Jorge Lopez. He's just awful command and some really bad health moments last year where it looked like he was pitching hurt while we were watching him. to me it's tanner scott if it's not tyler wells yeah scott and dylan tate are the two that i'm more interested in of their options i'm just not a cole seltzer guy i feel really bad about that colin mckew won the award that i thought he was going to win the guy who

could close somewhere but won't close somewhere award he He goes to Atlanta. Trevor May was the recipient of that award last year. Yeah, because I think Will Smith can lose that job, but you've still got Tyler Matzek and A.J. Minter throwing straight flames ahead of Colin McHugh, probably. Yeah, so nice addition for Atlanta, but not quite the landing spot we were hoping for as maybe people that believe that McHugh could get some saves somewhere. It seems like it's going to be a little harder for that to happen. Other relievers that sign, how about

David Robertson and Daniel Norris to the Cubs, Dan Winkler and Greg Holland to the Rangers, and Tyler Thornburg also going to Atlanta, at least with the Cubs and Rangers. Those are pretty unsettled situations. I think Rowan Wick is still the internal favorite to open the year with that job. But David Robertson, even though he's old, he could be the old Renaissance reliever that comes out and finds saves this year. I actually think that could be a sneaky deep league last pick sort of dart to throw.

We got some breaking news. Yes. At the end here. You're so tired of even doing the riff. Sorry. It's only Thursday. He's so done so uh brad miller two-year deal i think that means he's the third baseman i the glove has been bad for a while and he was seemed like a dh maybe they will do an offensive defensive platoon with brad miller and and Andy Abanez and call it a day on this offseason for them.

Yeah, that could definitely be curtains for their offseason. It's a lot better. You've got to feel a lot better as a Rangers fan today than you did this time last year. I mean, what a gross situation. Oh, I forgot to add this one to the rundown, by the way. Not a minor move. Zach Greinke going to Kansas City.

We were wondering, where does he go? What does his outlook appear to be? It's a good division. Yeah, we did talk about the fact that his really kind of one-year jump into the low swinging strike, low strikeout pool, was it an indicator of age or the fact that he mentioned to me that he was expected to be the innings horse for the Astros and he was trying to get out of innings as quickly as possible.

So I don't know how that ports over to his new team. Would he be expected to be the innings horse there? I wouldn't believe that quote from anyone else like if anybody else said that like that's just a cover but grinky why would he lie about that is instead of to be dishonest in that it in that instance did not come off no like it just it i think that was actually what he was doing. There's also an interesting piece of rumor that is relevant to this. They're supposedly one of the finalists for Montas. So, I don't know, your appraisal of this team could start to shift a little.

If it goes Granke, Montas, Hernandez, you know, one, two, three, and you're hoping that Lynch know lynch jumps up or one of their their minor leaguers jumps up uh into that group now you're like well that starting pitching group is a little bit better lever group is all right and they've got the position prospects that are that could break out any time so maybe they're moving towards something good there montas grinky grinky montas and then hernandez was your third i like that yeah i mean that's a that's that's a lot better top three than they've had for a while bullpen kind of sneakily getting better too i mean we saw scott barlow pitch well again last year we like stalmont and coleman yeah

coleman could be filthy a little extra depth there garrett gives them another lefty that can be good so i quietly like what the Royals are doing. They're at least putting in the effort and they've got that young group of prospects coming up to help round out that roster as well. Only projected for 75 wins. Maybe smash that over.

Andrew Chafin to the Tigers. See their closer? I know they named Gregory Soto the closer. Soto's the guy for now. Who gets more saves this season, Soto or Chafin? Stuff says Soto. But Chafin showed up for his introductory press conference with a mug root beer and camo Crocs.

No, he's a classic dude. But, I mean, he's humping it up there at 92. I think people like that. There is research that backs it, that they like more VLO. And they even said something about Soto being the closer. Yeah, still not expecting that to hold up. But I think we've done it. I think we made it through another robust rundown.

Time for a nap. Three hours worth of topics crammed into about 75 minutes. That is our specialty. I am going to try and find a corn, beef and cabbage recipe. If I can't find one, I'll make shepherd's pie. I'm going to,

I'm going to add a thousand words to my 5,000 word manifesto to try and make it these seven days after the lockout quick analysis on every deal. You can find that on The Athletic. Get in for $1 a month for the first six months at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. Really appreciate everybody who supports us by subscribing or by leaving us a review and making sure that they subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Just go there, hit the subscribe button. If you're watching us on YouTube, be sure to hit the like button on this video. And as always, leave us questions either there underneath the video or send us an email rates and barrels at the athletic.com. We'll have more time for some questions. Now that we've moved through the catch up on the news and the position previews,

hopefully we can help a few people out as draft season really kind of ramps up here. We've got tout wars weekend coming up this weekend and nfbc main events i believe are now just a week away like 10 days away or less so all of that you can battle me in a rotowire rotowire online championship oh on nfbc on friday i'm signed up i shouldn't do this you guys all know my rankings and everything but friday at i think 2 p.m eastern it always it sort of collapses if you don't get enough people so it might end up being 4 p.m or whatever oh yeah yeah you gotta you gotta watch it i don't even i haven't checked

yet today to see how many people are in it but uh friday afternoon if you want to if you want to battle me in a rotowire oc please don't uh if you're very good join my main uh that i have now signed up for uh next thursday i like how you still put it out there anyway you still told people this is when i'm playing if you're better than me please don't sign up for my league so that way anyone better than you is like well i'm definitely getting in there better expected value why would i why would i not i have not set my my date yet i'm definitely getting in there. Better expected value. Why would I not? I have not set my date yet. I'm going to play in the auction championship this year. I can't swing both the main event and the auction championship.

I'm not bankrolled quite like that. Someday, I hope to be. I just have more practice. I've had more practice doing snakes on that platform. So I'm going to try out the main. Yeah, I'm going to do the little auction online first to get more comfortable with the NFBC's auction room. So if I choose a date for the first one especially, I'll be sure to throw a link out there for anybody who wants to play against me in an auction format. It should be a lot of fun.

But that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.