Rates & Barrels - FYPD Ranks with James Anderson

Episode Date: March 7, 2023

First Year Player Draft ranks can be tricky. How do you value the newest coming prospect class, and how do they relate to overall prospect lists? Chris Welsh and James Anderson talk about to tiers of FYPD ranks, what happened to the pitchers and some deep names to watch. Rundown 2:48 - Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday 3:49 - Welsh and Druw Jones Snippet 8:07 - James Wood 14:49 - Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida 17:12 - James breaks down Senga's start 22:10 - Tier 2 of FYPD 23:53 - Zach Neto 32:26 - Kevin Parada 38:26 - Jett Williams 40:59 - Ethan Salas 44:26 - Dalton Rushing 46:25 - Where are the pitching prospects? 50:58 - Deeper FYPD prospects to target Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Hello, friends, and welcome in to Rates and Barrels. It's a mid-March edition. I am Chris Welsh and there is no Eno, there's no DVR. Even Rates and Barrels? I know. I know some of you are having a big panic attack. I will try to hold down the fort. And joining me today, we've got James Anderson from Rotowire. One of my great friends, one of the best prospect minds out there,

as we are going to be talking about first-year player drafts. And we'll get to James here in just one second. I do want to remind you guys that the 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit is here. Just go to theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. $2 a month. You'll be rocking. Why not? Get all the great stuff.

You can get all of Eno's great work, the kit. Got my dynasty ranks. Check it out. Athletic.com slash ratesinbarrels. You can find my dear friend James Anderson on Twitter at RealJRAnderson. James, what's up, buddy? Oh, man. So much going on this time of year, dude, but happy to be here with you.

You know, I'm kind of curious about this. I was talking with Eno. Me and Eno were kind of planning this first-year player conversation. And do you think it's too late to have it? I actually think we're in a really interesting time. And the reason I ask this is like you and I doing, you know, you do the road to wire prospect stuff. I have prospect one. We're talking about first year player in like November. We're talking about it in December. January seems to be like the really big, hot first year player spot. But we're doing this in early March.

There's still dynasty drafts that are going to start. We've also kind of got a little bit more information. You know, we've got players are out at camps now. We've got guys that might even be running into games. I mean, we are getting more first year player stuff. Do you think it's too late to really get into first year player in March? Or do you think it actually might be a little secret weapon if you do your first year player or your, you know, your fresh new startup dynasties in like late March? You know, obviously you're going to get a larger

percentage of dynasty leagues to be able to use your content if you're doing it earlier than later. You know, if you're doing it mid to late January, then that should pretty much cover every dynasty league. But I play in several where we haven't started our first year player drafts yet. I think you probably would want to do it that way. I guess if you had to pick whether to do it early or do it late, I think doing it as close to the season as, as you can make sense. So hopefully that,

that encompasses a decent amount of leagues yeah i mean that's how i feel about it too like getting an advantage of waiting and seeing a prime example was i chatted with uh drew jones just recently i mentioned it here and everywhere else uh that i got to chat with drew jones and i felt i felt like in like november march even though drew jones had kind of been the consensus number one first-year player guy, there was starting to lead up to the Jackson – not to say that Jackson Holiday isn't worthy, but he was starting to slowly kind of close the gap, and then you started seeing him in camps, and we're seeing him on the backfields in video, and he's physically growing.

And we just have so much more information of what's going on with Jackson Holiday that I felt like in even though people were kind of jumping to Drew Jones as November and December started to roll on. That started to slide a little bit and started to change a little bit. And the information when I chatted with Drew was he was a full go. And I felt like part of that change was like, well, Drew hasn't been in any games and we're seeing this progression of Jackson Holiday. Well, now, as I talk with Drew, he's like, yeah, I feel good. I'm good.

Talk with Lawler. Talk with Carol about the shoulder injury stuff. I'm going to be in practices. I'm going to be in game action, minor league spring training, and that's going to get him to an affiliate. How are you feeling? Feeling good. Kind of just getting back to doing more baseball stuff and just getting healthy. Yeah. Shoulder. Yeah. Good. Did you ever take

any time and like chat with Lawler and Carol about the experience they had with the shoulder injuries? Yeah. They just, they, I mean like right away, like as soon as I knew, I just kind of connected with them and talked to them and just, they asked me and I just – they just had to stay the course just like everybody else. Yeah. Interesting. Jordan kind of had a similar thing where he only got, like, two games in, I think, a professional ball, and then they got knocked out. I was actually at that game before he got knocked out. Yours was during – was it during BP?

During batting practice, yeah. Just unfortunate. Just one little slip up. Was, like, mentally kind of tough like in the first experience out that happening um it i mean i felt like i i mean i've never really been like had a significant injury or like a lot of time off of baseball so i just kind of took it i guess like it's time off for me and just to make sure to get my body healthy and things like that yeah that's definitely it's like the first test yeah like the first first one that's got to be like kind of jar

was a little bit jarring a little bit but i mean you know time it happened it happened so yeah well i mean also you obviously have like the experience in the family and everything with your dad but did he give you any advice through the whole process um he just said just follow what the people are saying like do the rehab and just don't try and rush anything don't try and push yourself to do anything that you can't do what's the plan plan for spring training and the opening of the year? Just kind of starting with the team. It kind of just depends on what everybody thinks and what everybody says. It's kind of just seeing how I'm doing and how I'm feeling.

Are you going to be in any minor league spring training games? I think so, hopefully. Sweet. I'm excited to see that. That'll be really good. Have they not told you, like, low A or complex? Not sure yet, no. Just staying the course, just seeing what they say. to see that that'll be really good have they have they not told you like low or not sure just kind of just staying the course just seeing what they say i feel like that actually works a little bit more back into his favor of feeling comfortable about that i don't know if it necessarily changes him being one or two or whatever it is but yeah that's one of those reasons like getting information

about players as much as possible on first year players what we're looking for uh has there been any swaying with you on the top two guys and that's what we're going to talk about what we're looking for uh has there been any swaying with you on the top two guys and that's what we're going to talk about here we're going to do tiers of players and really tier one is just drew jones and jackson holiday has there been any swaying in this entire process for you no i had i had it 1a 1b pretty much all off season and sticking with that i think it's uh anyone who wants to put holiday over jones i think it's more about holiday than any slight on jones uh holiday's just been trending up like a rocket ship over the past year and jones has been you know jones is more sort of the track record guy

but i i don't i think track record's kind of overrated on the amateur side it's kind of like what have you done recently because all these guys are very early in their development and very early in their physical maturation. So I definitely get the case for holiday. I definitely get the case for Jones and I have Jones one spot ahead of holiday, but I think it's definitely those two in the top tier for me. Let's do this for a second.

I'm going to attempt to encompass as much as possible, not only talking about first year player, but surrounding surrounding these guys with if you guys were doing a prospect draft or you know if you're looking at prospects versus dynasty you guys can get james's prospect ranks over at rotowire if you would like to check it out you can sub there and you can check it out uh there's a really interesting name that is sandwiched between these two guys you have these guys both inside the top 12 and sandwiched in between Drew Jones and Jackson Holiday is James Wood. And James Wood has been getting even more pub

for some absurd sprint speeds in times he's put up that would rival Corbin Carroll, except he's 6'7", 230, 240 pounds. I've always had a tenuous relationship with James Wood because every time I see him in person, which has been a lot, he stinks. But at the same time, it's at complex level and I think he plays up and then he goes and he puts up amazing numbers as soon as he gets out of a rehab here in complex and goes up to the next level. But what can't be denied is he looks like the

number one prospect in the Nationals from that trade. How do you parse out James Wood being behind Drew Jones and above Jackson Holiday in that sandwich? Do you think that's slowly starting to maybe change, especially when you're talking about the what have you done for me lately? I think it'll just be that same order for me on the next update. me on the next update. I kind of lumped those three together because I think they are the three best prospects that don't have any upper level experience under their belt. So obviously Woods played at higher levels than or has more experience at higher levels, a ball basically than than holiday and obviously more than Jonesones but i think those guys are all kind of moving on a similar trajectory towards the majors i wouldn't be surprised if they all debut

the same year and i think they all have just massive ceilings so all the guys i have ahead of them i expect to beat them to the majors by at least a full year and so these these three are kind of the elite guys that you won't see anytime soon. Well, that's kind of telling if you think that Holiday and Drew Jones would come up at the same time as James Wood. That would also probably show that they are jumping and skipping levels. I mean, James is, what, probably going to be at high A to start and maybe push double A. I'm expecting both Holiday and Drew Jones to be at low A this year and maybe move to high A. I'm expecting both Holiday and Drew Jones to be at low A this year and maybe move to high A, but do you think there's at some point that's going to change and Drew Jones and Jackson Holiday

are going to even just move forward, maybe at the same level of where James Wood is? Yeah, I think Jones and Holiday are the types of guys that are going to move very quickly by prep hitter standards. And then I also think if you look at team context, the Nationals are further behind the diamondbacks and the orioles in terms of when they're going to start contending so i don't really see any reason why the nationals would bring james wood up any sooner than they need to because they're going to be really bad for the next at least three years so you could

see a scenario where holiday is kind of the final piece to the puzzle for the orioles or jones is kind of um you know they're ready to kind of push for a wild card spot and they break camp with with jones in center field or something like that so team context factors in the fact that wood is this ridiculously tall specimen, those guys typically don't move super, super fast. There can be exceptions, but yeah, I think factoring everything in, the fact Jones and Holiday, really, really strong two-way guys in terms of adding value with the glove, I think they're all going to move to the majors at around the same time. What would it take for Holiday to jump

Drew Jones in your mind? Would it take early production changes? What's the move and what's the date? The deadline? You'd say Drew Jones struggles, Jackson Holiday is good, and it is May 15th, and these have to swap what does it take it would probably have to take some something something something jones did or didn't do to kind of have some doubt creep into my mind regarding him i i'm i think holiday has a higher floor than than jones so uh maybe like a strikeout rate for drew like drew strikeout

rate is pushing like the really high 20s and holidays sitting in the low 20s and not producing i think it's more of just a question mark with jones i would be stunned if holiday ever really had any issues with the hit tool and with jones i i think he'll be great but we just don't really know um so I'd it would be Jones Jones being worse than I expected him to be and then Holiday being as good as I expected him to be I could see that flipping because they are on the same tier for me in Dynasty what do you say to people that are gonna look at like 18 year old 19 year old kids that don't have a lot of professional experience and are going to invest as far as dynasty goes. The aunt, no, I'm pronouncing it correctly.

Meaning, you know, kept going back and forth about that. Uh, the podcaster league that I did, I did end up getting drew Jones for like two bucks. And, uh, cause I smartly figured out quick that I need to go $2 cause someone will inevitably push one more dollar just to be a jerk. And I had to go and get Drew Jones. And I made that investment in a format that, I don't know, it definitely reeked more of needing more proximity type of players. So how do you deal with, I mean, you are, and I'm, by the way, I'm not against it because you know I'm the exact same way on this,

but you've got two barely professional players inside the top 15 overall prospects. What do Dynasty players do with that? Are you comfortable? Should they be comfortable taking these players inside the top 125, 150 of Dynasty, even if they're in win now? What are the scenarios around these tier two prospects? Well, it's a comfort level thing with for every dynasty manager.

I know that there are plenty of dynasty people who are just kind of perpetually in wind now mode and maybe taking Jones or holidays and their cup of tea. If you're in a league where you're really confident, the league's going to exist in five years ten years then i think you gotta treat these guys like top 15 guys if you're rebuilding and you know that you're you're three years away from contending whether the league exists or not then i mean i think these guys are pretty appealing but if you're worried about the league folding if your team is older

and you're you've got to win in the short term i wouldn't like i think it's just a massive mistake if you if you have the first pick in a first year player draft or the second pick in a first year player draft to take cody sanga over these guys i think that's just a huge mistake because you're passing on the opportunity to have a superstar hitter for his entire career. And if you take Jones and Holiday, even if you're the win-now team, I think you can feel pretty good about being able to turn those guys into a better big league piece than Senga sometime this season. So I think that's the way to go no matter where you're at competitively but uh if it's just a dynasty and we're not talking first year player like if you want to take a curtis mead or anthony volpe over those guys because you love the

the proximity be my guest you know i think those guys are all kind of in the same tier but from just a an upside uh superstar potential standpoint i think jones and holiday have to be taken very seriously like one that like uh like an example that jumps out to me would be someone being like well i want casas over over drew jones you know or casas over jackson holiday because i'm going to get the production now and i think he's going to be really good and that would kind of be it you brought up the i'm going to call them the 13th floor uh you know like a hotel where they'll go from like 12 to 14 they're kind of my 13th floor, you know, like a hotel where they'll go from like 12 to 14. They're kind of my 13th floor because they're not really first year player guys. And some people won't put them in their first year player draft.

So we actually did not have them in, I'm in the CBS Scott White 24 team league. They do not put them in the first year player because of international contracts, but some people do. So my 13th floor players of Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida, when they fall into this, they're the ones that screw it up. Say Asuzuki screwed it up. We always have like an international guy that comes in and it is the ultimate huge young upside talent

versus international gonna play right now production. And that's what people battle with. So you would say that Senga and obviously Yoshida who completely broke all the projection systems those players should not go over the two young guys really regardless of whatever format you're doing for your dynasty yeah I mean it you know if we're talking dynasty we're talking about a league that's got spots for minor leaguers and these are these are two of the best minor leaguers out there and uh just because senga and yoshida are

older and and had success in japan doesn't mean that they're super safe in terms of being top 150 players they're fairly safe in that they're going to be playing in the major leagues but we don't have any guarantee how good they're going to be. And I don't think there's really any case to say that they have anywhere near the type of ceiling that Jones and Holiday have. Treat yourself to Tim's new fudge brownie lattes, made with freshly ground espresso beans, frothy steamed or ice chilled milk, and topped with marble chocolate curls.

Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced iced only at Tim's. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton bike, bike plus, tread, row, guide, or app. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the Also, Senga kind of struggled in that. What did he have a start? I guess it was two days ago. He was showing off the ghost fork, which I think got Jordan Walker. If I'm reading this right, too, it had 41 inches of drop, which is relatively absurd.

He threw 10 sweepers with an almost 2,900 RPM, and he maxed out on the fastball at 99. This is Senga. But there were some early control struggle issues if you're in a startup dynasty and uh you want to win now the same i mean i know you've kind of answered it i'm just trying to build different scenarios is there that scenario where you're in a dynasty startup where like everyone's together you know what i mean it's not like a separate prospect draft you got to do them all together sanga or jackson holiday and win now and still holiday yeah still holiday and i i was there for that uh sanga start a couple days ago and oh you were in florida for first pitch right yeah yeah

and uh i i got to watch his bullpen session before the game there were this was one of those fields where the bullpen is is on the field that's not behind any walls or anything and so you had like 200 300 mets fans just crowding these these railings about like 40 50 feet away from senga during this bullpen session and dude he could not throw a strike at all in this bullpen session i thought that the control was going to be an issue in the start and he did walk the first two guys then you know props to him he kind of started started throwing the filth guys weren't laying off of it the way they probably should have i mean i think if i if i were arnado goldie jordan walker i would have been make him in make him throw a strike mode um and i think just from what I saw, you know,

I think the control could be an issue. There could be some ugly outings. Hopefully that was just nerves because of how, you know, that was his first stateside game action. There were a lot of Mets fans there, you know, maybe it was just some nerves, but I didn't leave that start feeling like, oh crap, I got to get this guy. Obviously the stuff was great, but I mean, it was kind of,

it was kind of odd to just see him just be completely unable to throw a strike in a bullpen session without hitters in the box. Well, that's another first year player draft pitcher that I'm all too familiar with that fails to even in practice sessions throw strikes on fastballs. That's a problem. What were your – any takes on that fork, on the ghost fork that you saw in person? Well, I wasn't right behind the plate like where the scouts are. So, I mean, I think anyone could have a similar take by just watching video as I would. I mean, it was great.

You mentioned all the metrics and everything. It's not an issue with the stuff at all obviously you're if you're touching 99 and you got that that type of movement on the off-speed pitches you could miss a lot of bats um it's just going to be all about the control for me yeah i'm watching a video too that it has me thinking like my initial reaction. And I think I said, I might've said this before with, with a guy that the dominant pitch and you could call it arguably dominant pitch. But if I have a guy that struggles with high velocity fastballs with command and has like this dominant breaking pitch, I go back and think of dominant Casey Mize when he was coming up and everyone was talking about the splitter.

And my big thing was like, well, just don't swing at the splitter and you saw in his first couple starts where guys were just not swinging at the splitter at all and were forcing him to throw strikes with the fastball and they were beating him up so your ability to throw strikes in different spots is really important but i'm watching this video of uh pitching ninja right now and the release point is really interesting because he overlaid the 98 mile an hour fastball and this 83 mile an hour fork and i could definitely see how are you they're gonna have to figure out like the different release points uh or the you know the quick movement off the hand to decipher those to not be swinging at them but to your to what you said like it might simply just be you don't swing early and counts and you make him throw strikes you like you just make him throw strikes early on hilariously like this whole Miguel Vargas

situation where everyone knows he's coming up and he's not swinging and yet he still has walks and guys can't get it over that might be an approach to have with Senga but I mean to your point like you didn't walk away super impressed with him. So the floor 13 players, they've got their spot. Masataka Yoshida, I think is interesting. But if I'm in a first year player personally, I don't consider Yoshida until probably at least eighth or ninth guy, even if I'm in win now. And Senga's tough. You know, if I were in a dynasty and it was first year player and I had like the fourth

or fifth pick. I personally couldn't pass up the big four. I consider the big four. And we're going to talk about tier two here in a second. When you get to five and you start looking at guys like Cam Collier and Neto and Brooks Lee, like I might be willing to take that risk with Senga, regardless of some of those early issues, because that three picks pitch mix that you just bring up, even with command issues, it's something you might want to bet on. A 99 mile an hour fastball, big sweeper that's getting whiffs

and a ghost fork, which is going to keep guys on their toes the whole time. Those are things that I feel like pitchers and pitching coaches could work with. It's just how much involvement to the Mets pitching coaches really even need when you have Verlander and Scherzer out there. Like what do they get taught?

So you hope the pitchers might move off a little bit on them. The tier two in first year player i put five different players in here even if i don't necessarily agree with it elijah green tamar johnson brooks lee zach netto cam collier i believe that is tier two when you're looking at all these players it mixes and different how do you rank out these five i don't remember what your order is uh termar is uh definitely number three uh elijah green is four uh but elijah green could move up and he could move down i think he's a very volatile prospect even even this, even at his age, the strikeout rate, it could be scary, it could be manageable.

And if it's scary, I'll slide him down. But I think that the upside justifies him being at four behind Johnson. I almost put those two alone, by the way, because I personally believe they're kind of their own sector like i love tamar johnson and i think people are kind of coming back around on it elijah green might be the most physically gifted player in this entire draft he's got big strikeout issues so they could almost you could almost argue that this is like tier a tier 2a and then it's tier 2b on this because i i know you and i don't disagree but i feel like there's some people out there that you start to look at these high school

guys both that have a couple warts on them if you will and they go well i would rather brooks lee who's got tremendous power a great bat and might move to a corner spot zag netto who just hit a big double the other day looks a little overm, but he's always got an interesting approach, who I really love. And then, you know, in first year player, you get around the prospect fantasy people. And Cam Collier goes up as high as three for some because he is he's a next world athlete who actually reclassified to join the draft class in here. So that's why I kind of ended them out together. So it's Tamar, Elijah Green. And then what's that separation with those other three? there's a gap there for me too uh i i think

zach netto and brooks lee are definitely the the top two college guys uh i prefer netto uh just think he's more likely to contribute in all five categories, whereas I don't think Lee's going to run at all. And then Collier, again, it's just kind of roster context, league context, probably five years away, four years away. If that's just a deal breaker for you, then so be it. Netto and even Lee could debut this year. So I think if you're, I would still suggest kind of going after one of them over Senga, even if you're in win now mode, just because they're going to be

four or five months behind Senga, and they've got much more staying power, in my opinion. and they've got much more staying power, in my opinion. But, yeah, I mean, I'm with you in terms of I would want Johnson or Green, or I'd want to be picking maybe like seventh and just get whichever guy kind of falls. I just want to not be around Seng and Yoshida. I don't even want to have to think about it is bottom line what I would want. When you're putting those two guys for the major league spot,

what odds would you put on Lee and Netto to make a debut this year if you had to give odds? I think Netto makes it if he's healthy. I just think they – you look at that depth chart and you look at the Angels, the way that they draft guys specifically to move them quickly, that's the appeal to them. Guys that they don't have to really work with and they don't have to try to mature and develop

because their development isn't great. Yeah. I mean, they did that with pitchers last year. Neto, I mean, is he a better option at big league shortstop than Luis Ranjifo come August? Like, I don't know. He could be. So I would give Neto above 50% chance of debuting this year

as long as he doesn't suffer an injury. Lee, there's Carlos Correa. Every time he gives a quote, it's kind of take it with a grain of salt. But he thinks Lee's ready for the big leagues this year. I don't see any really obvious path for him. That's a crowded depth chart. They've got plenty of guys who've been paying their dues in the upper levels who are infielders.

So I would say definitely under 50 on lee but he is so he was such an advanced college hitter that i wouldn't rule it out and i think he is probably the best just bat in general if you're trying to you know make that guess is lee but i've been a netto guy my only concern with netto is like so i was watching i went back to watch reviews because i tweeted out this video that netto is like so i was watching i went back to watch repaves because i tweeted out this video that netto uh double video and the thing that jumped out to me and i completely forgot about this because one of the things i liked about it was he had this really mild approach on it was a two strike count and i just had forgot that his version of like choking up on

the bat is on two strike count so in the first two counts any you know non-two strike count he's got this really really big front leg kick i think it's reminiscent of royce lewis and that's kind of why i've comped him to royce lewis he just gets i mean that knee probably gets up you know to like middle of his rib cage it just really gets up there but then in two strike counts the leg barely moves and that was where he stuck into that double my problem with him is boy did he look overmatched and i know it was like one of the first or maybe was the first spring training at bats he's getting and you're going up against more major league pitching but they just brutalized him with the fastballs when he was implementing that front leg kick and his timing seemed off and then when he

got into simple like simplified i want to make contact mode crushes the double to right center field and he flew i think actually turned it into a triple like he's a super fast athletic guy my only worry with netto is that he is going to have some early struggles he's going to run into like early contact struggles that the team is going to be a little bit worried about and they're going to have to develop him longer that they're not going to take guys like david fletcher and ring gifo off of the team in favor of him so that's my worry about netta for this year brooks lee is interesting because you could look at the depth chart and be like oh there's not a path right now because they do have a lot of guys and if he goes to third if cure you know kirov could go to dh miranda could go to first

brooks lee could be in at for uh in at third with the potential to play shortstop once Royce Lewis is there if they need the depth. But I would probably put both. I put Neto at like 35% and Brooks Lee at like 30%, which I would love. But it's part of the case of like what makes them so interesting when you're drafting these guys. You have, let me do a couple differences. Tamar Johnson is four spots higher

than oswald peraza who's making time this year what do you like about tamar over oswald peraza if you were trying to break it down to someone who is just freaking out because they need production now why tamar over oswald peraza well if someone's freaking out and they want production now i have no problem going Parraza over Johnson. I think Johnson's just got more impact potential offensively, and I think he's going to move pretty quick for a high school hitter. But, I mean, they're in the same tier, so I would not spend any time trying to talk anyone out of Parraza over Johnson if they're trying to win now. Okay, yeah, I mean, Parraza's got got a better stealing potential but I think the contact is going to be better than Tamar Johnson uh let's try one with Elijah Green let's see you've got Elijah

Green okay Elijah Green versus Colton Couser you got Colton Couser once but I'm picking I'm really like picking at you here because these are guys are next to each other and at the end of the day I know personally I can speak for James because I am the same way you you want to pick one guy over the other one guy being 22 and one guy being 23 isn't the biggest thing in the world but like what is a separator for colton kouser to be above green when you have big questions on on green so yeah i mean i would just say that kouser is much much much much much safer than green green. Green has 40 homer potential realistically. Couser probably doesn't have 30 homer potential realistically. So there's definitely a gap in terms of the tools

in certain facets of the game with them. But green could just not even amount to anything, and Couser is going to probably debut this year. So just the safety factor with Couser, and it's not like he's got a low ceiling. He could be a 20-20 guy. Mashed a homer in spring just the other day. That's seven players.

Of those seven, how many are top 50 prospects of these first-year player guys? In your mind. Let's see. We know Drew Holiday, Elijah Tamar are. Right. And then Neto is. Collier and Neto are just inside my top 50, but that's it.

And then Brooks Lee is right outside of it. Not right outside of it uh see not right outside he's he's in he's kind of around like 70 okay so he's a little bit further okay so six of the guys we talked about the first two tiers are in james's top 50 of overall prospects takes us to tier three uh this isn't in a specific order i put these guys in or my order anything like that but you have spencer Jones with the New York Yankees. Very, very popular right now. A lot of Aaron Judge comps that are being thrown around. Kevin Parada, who I think is a lot less popular with people. I'm a little bit higher on him with the New York Mets catcher.

Drew Gilbert with the Houston Astros and Chase DeLauder, who's going to miss some significant time suffering. I think it was a foot injury, but he's going to be out for a bit. Drew Gilbert's in there. If you wanted to be out for a bit drew gilbert's in there if you wanted to argue let's just do it let's put gavin cross in there gavin cross had a day i had him in tier four but let's go spencer jones kevin product gilbert de lauder and gavin cross two favorites out of tier three if you had to pick okay so i'll say drew gil Gilbert, very well-rounded. He was the guy I was highest on of all these guys before the draft, and he went to a good landing spot.

So I think Gilbert's got to be there. And then Kevin Parada, I guess, would be my other one. Really? Okay. Really strong track record. He's just been extremely productive for the last three years. I have no idea if he's going to be a catcher or a DH or split time at multiple spots, but they drafted the bat with him and i have faith in the bat so i'll go with gilbert and prada i'm very i'm surprised in a great way because i did

not realize that um i do these for everybody listening i do these things called the p180p mocks i create an adp system for prospects i do it on my Patreon at inthisleague.com. So you can see what top 200 prospects are because we don't have an ADP out there. We got some other industry people that do different drafts. And I felt like in everything that I've seen over the last four months, Kevin Parada is such an afterthought. Yet, like you said, he had such a prestigious career in college at Georgia Tech. I mean, he had like 27 homers, I think, can steal some bases, makes contact at every stage of his college career. And then he comes over to the Mets

and I really think they want him to be the catcher. Like Francisco Alvarez, I think they see as like pseudo catch, almost like Varsha was like pseudo catcher, but more of a DH than outfield where Parada's, I think someone that they could line up to that. And I think Kevin Parada could be something like a J2 Ramuto long term. I think he's just and I know we've had some guys like Henry Davis is really cool coming

out of Louisville. But I think Kevin Parada is offensively and defensively just maybe one of the most solid guys. But I feel like he's like 12, 13, 14 on so many lists. You actually have him next to Brooks Lee. And that's that's pleasantly surprising, James. You actually have him next to Brooks Lee. And that's pleasantly surprising, James.

Yeah, I think it's just people maybe overreacting to exit velocity data in both directions. You know, overreacting to how good someone like Spencer Jones's exit velocity data is. And kind of overreacting to sort of how underwhelming Parada's was in a short sample. But I think you gotta you gotta look at the track record there uh jones was a guy that was like kind of interesting before the draft not a guy that i would have had anywhere near parada and he goes to the yankees and you know people start making all these stupid comps and they see the evs and stuff uh but i think you gotta look at the track record there yeah and if people are wondering you've got them over like diego cartaya henry davis i mean it's it's a pretty good group that you're putting him in here oh of those guys is there someone that

doesn't belong uh gavin cross spencer jones um who's the other one uh chase de lauder do one of those guys not belong in this tier i don't i don't i don't know cross in this in this tier uh personally um and i had him in the next tier by the way so i just i don't know why i decided to throw him in because he i think he had homer the other day or he got some action in spring you will see you will see him go first round so i think just from uh where are these guys gonna go i think he might belong in the tier but but I think he's the worst of those guys. Why do you think he's the worst? Why do you hate Gavin Cross?

I mean, I wasn't that high on him before the draft. I just have questions about the hit tool. He hasn't faced age-appropriate pitching yet. I'll be interested to see what Gavin Cross does at AA. I'll be interested to see what Spencer Jones cross does at double a i'll be interested to see what spencer jones does at double a um i don't know i i it's a bad org uh i i just think i think there's going to be more swing and miss there than uh people are letting on but uh yeah we'll see yeah i mean development like look at eric i I love Eric Pena personally, but the regression he took.

I don't know what it was. Was it the lack of working with? He showed such promise for early stages. But from what they've done of really developing guys, like Michael Garcia is kind of an anomaly at this point for how they're really bringing up players. You know, it's funny you say it because i was at royals camp two days ago and i saw it was gavin cross hayden dunhurst and um caden wallace were the guys that went out and there was something kind of about caden wallace

that i wonder if and not to like make a big thing about it but i wonder if caden wallace could end up being a better fantasy option at a first year player than cross was and Caden Wallace hit 293 in his pro debut two homers stole eight bases got up to single a he moved two levels I think he did yeah he did a little bit of ACL and he hit 294 in a ball I kind of like and I think he was at Arkansas I really liked him early on he just kind of faded off that like when I look at Gavin Cross I think oh that's kind of a pass for me and I would want to take Caden Wallace a little bit later just a random Caden Wallace aside I don't know if you have any feelings on him no that that wouldn't surprise me and uh it's very clear that they view him as their third baseman of the future uh no one's standing in his way so um yeah I could

see that yep and uh I think I might have even seen him play a little first yesterday but he was locked in at third they were running a scrimmage game on the backfields and a lot of talent that was running out there. Okay. So let's go to tier four and then we are going to look at some deeper. And then there's an obvious mission we have here that I'm going to clearly cover. This is tier four in the first year player, which is essentially getting us into like the heavy first round of first year player and trying to give you guys an idea.

And tier four consists of dalton rushing who is from louisville and uh catcher for the los angeles dodgers very exciting jet williams who's gonna clearly be the first person we talk about because james really likes him jacob barry is one of those players kind of like kevin prada that has really fallen off this former u.s u of a first baseman who went over to LSU. He hits, but kind of defensively has some weird questions. And then Ethan Salas I'm throwing in here because of some crazy stuff that is out there. And I feel good about that because I think I felt like I started to talk about Ethan Salas when everyone was talking about Felton and Selston. So, but aside, let's talk about Jet Williams, because as much as I brought up, you know,

my excitement about where you have Kevin Prada, you have Jet Williams above Brooks Lee and Kevin Prada. That is very telling. You and I have kind of gone back and forth about him. He's a physically smaller guy around five foot eight, but, you know, kind of stocked out a little bit, has incredible bat speed, can really turn on the ball. Hit tool is pretty high. But why don't you expand on your true, true love of Jet Williams? Yeah, I think he's just got a really, really high fantasy ceiling. Guys who are a little undersized, I think it pretty much always opens up a buying opportunity,

opens up a buying opportunity for teams in the draft, opens up an opportunity for us in Dynasty because there's just this bias against guys like this and i understand it to to a certain extent but uh we've just got probably a dozen examples over the past five ten years of guys who are undersized emerging as big big-time impact fantasy hitters. And Jet Williams has all the physical traits that could allow him to do that. You mentioned the bat speed. He's also got big-time wheels on the bases, one of the best hitters from the prep ranks in that entire class.

So I just don't really care if a guy's 5''8 5'9 if if I love everything else in their game I think we've had enough examples to kind of show us that you can be a superstar in the big leagues without being 5'11 6'0 so if the only reason you don't like Jet Williams is his height, then that's fine. But just acknowledge the rest of his profile is extremely exciting for fantasy. It kind of reminds me of, and this is a negative, but it kind of reminds me of when Nick Gonzalez came up. Because Nick, I think they listed him at 5'10".

I don't know. When I saw him at New Mexico State, he was like 5'9". He's a smaller guy but you could see where the physical bulk was going to come in Nick Nick Gonzalez had some of the best bat speed I have ever seen in the college side it was tremendous and obviously like he didn't take all of that but the funny thing is is like Jet Williams is a better hitter and he steals more he was a perfect six for six in 10 games in the minor leagues this past year.

So I mean, obviously the attempts are going to be a little bit up, but he was really able to go. So I know Jet is definitely your guy. Ethan Salas, I want to talk about. So I planted my flag earlier in the year on prospect one, especially right around the J15 time. J15 is when the international players are allowed to sign.

And Feldman Selston with the Seattle Mariners was one of the J 15 time. J 15 is when the international players are allowed to sign and Felton Selston with the Seattle Mariners was one of the most popular guys. And I did an episode on first year player. And one of the conversations we would have around that is that the international class doesn't have as much flair anymore. They go way later. There's multiple years now, a track record of this hasn't worked.

Robert Poulos is like right in our face. Well, even Salas is a player that I just was like, this is my guy. I don't care. He's a catcher. And then we get this article that came out recently. It was, it was a little absurd. It was like Ethan Salas,

the hall of famer and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But he is a 16 year old James that is in camp. I saw him today. I was over there. He's working on the side and the talk from his side, which I heard before it became public in this article was that he might play low a ball this year, not just rookie. He might go to full season ball as a 16 year old. It's absolutely unheard of. So I had him higher than anyone in the world. I believe that's starting to change a little bit because of the

buzz that's going on. I can't now get him in a few drafts I've done. I'm very curious at your Ethan Salas conversation. He might not be in this tier four for you at all, but I do think he has moved into this tier four, tier five of first year player that he's become more of a priority for people because this, he might be the next big international thing. Yeah. I mean, I think it kind of comes down to kind of what we were talking about uh earlier it's just like how long is your league going to exist how do you treat catching prospects uh you know i like think about a guy like harry ford uh harry ford hasn't done anything but positive things since getting into pro ball he's had success in every aspect of the game, but he's still two plus years away. There's, I don't know,

a dozen catching prospects in my top 100, 10 catching prospects in my top 100. Most people in dynasty either have a good big lead catcher or really good catching prospect. So at a certain point, there's kind of a supply and demand issue at that position. And if you're talking about a guy who's at least three years away in solace then i just it's not something i'm really chasing um just because of the position uh nothing against him nothing against his upside or his talents but you know there's just even last year we had probably half dozen catchers emerge from being not top

150 prospects to being a top 100 prospects. And it's just how many teams in a dice that don't have a catcher they really like, you know, and if you have two or two or three catchers, what can you even get for them at a trade? We've kind of done this, like you and I have done this last two years. It's like the catcher Renaissance is going on in fantasy. There's just like so many better catchers and they're getting used in different positions.

Like, you know, MJ Melendez playing outfield and stuff like that. Francisco Alvarez is going to be a utility or DH type of guy. But at the end of the day, like there's only so much you can keep going. I don't disagree with that. Even this year's cloud.

I mean, we just talked about Kevin Prada. Dalton rushing is another one of those who had maybe one of the best spurts um coming out of the draft in short minor league stints than anybody else there's only so much you can do but i would say like the control the pitch recognition from ethan salas at his age is already ridiculous it's not absurd for 19 year olds to make even the majors and i think that is on the table that is literally what they're talking about as far as games that he can call defensively, how he is as a catcher,

we'll just have to see how he matures. He's someone I want to invest in. The problem is I also want to invest in Dalton rushing. That's another one of those. He has just jumped up boards from like November. If you were doing first year player to now here in March, he's also a guy that's a little bit more tantalizing in like first year play or a dynasty draft.

I'm sorry, not just first year player, but like dynasty drafts. If you're doing a fresh new dynasty, Dalton Rushing, you would want to take over an Ethan Salas because that guy might, that guy might hit AAA this year, especially with how the bat is. So I'm curious that your Dalton Rushing takes. Yeah, I think he kind of belongs. Like, I think I've got him and Spencer Jones back to back. I think he, he belongs like i think i've got him and spencer jones back to back i think he he belongs

right and then mix i think you could i could go back and forth on parada verse rushing and part of what i you know you don't want to over react to a small sample uh but he did have the best debut of anyone easy but whether you want to look at just basic stats whether you want to look at just basic stats, whether you want to look at hard hit stats. And then you look at his kind of background and the fact that he was Henry Davis' backup for a couple years. You can sort of see how this might be a guy who's really starting to peak now that he's getting the reps that his talent deserves and obviously in a great organization for development.

And so when you're taking Dalton rushing, I think you just got to view same way as like Parada. I think you're just evaluating the bat. And if he's as good of a hitter as he sort of teased us with last year, he could play first base, he could play DH. I don't think they'll have a problem finding a spot for him uh natural transition for catchers too we see uh going to third base that would be something not saying he can but we've seen that transition happen a lot

of guys going over there there is an obvious thing that we haven't mentioned whatsoever where are the pitchers good question where are the pitchers? Good question. Where are the pitchers? Because they're not in the first round, a first-year player. I'm not saying it's not a talented group, but it's not as talented as in some previous years. Here are some names to chew on of where these pitchers are. Cooper Ajerpe, Cade Horton, Dylan Lesko, Brock Porter.

You've got Jacob Mizoroski, Landon Sims, and Kumar Rocker. Let's talk about two that you really like out of this group. And do you agree that there's none in a 15 team that really belong in that space? You can obviously pick the top two. There's a couple high school arms, Brock Porter and Dylan Lesko. Dylan Lesko might be like the number one pitcher if there wasn't some injury in high school stuff out there landon sims struggled uh with uh timing tommy john surgery and he hasn't really pitched kate horton kind of came on really late there's a lot of pitchers in here is there a

pitcher that belongs in the top 15 and give me two that you want to break down well cooper jerky's my top guy and i i have taken him top 15 in one first-year player draft, but there's some context. Like, I really needed pitching in this league, and I had enough offensive depth where it's just like it was way more worth it for me to roll the dice on Jerby than to take a Dalton Rushing or a Drew Gilbertilbert in this specific league uh so i think if you're just desperate for a pitcher uh maybe if you're in a points league or something like that i think it's fine to take jerky in the first round so

jerky is obviously one of my guys there and then i'll say kate horton for the second one uh he kind of he slips in some first year player drafts i I think that's a mistake. He's got, he's got the stuff. It's kind of, can he handle a starter's workload? That's, that's the TBD part. But if he shows us that he can, if, if he's going five innings,

a start sort of middle of the summer and, and really building up those innings, I think you'll, you'll see him really shoot up lists because the stuff is there to be kind of a frontline or number two starter. I was trying to look here in the – so our friend Scott White runs a league. Let me see where I did it. And, yeah, I got Cade Horton in the second round, and it's 24 teams.

It's 24 teams, and I got him in the second round at pick 14. So, you know know what is that 20 38th pick i was able to get horton and this is a points league by the way so i agree these guys fall and those are two that i really like landon sims is someone i want to take really late and then the guy that you know stands out here is kamar rocker and i would just add you know james you've been on the not impressed train for a long time. I definitely tried to give benefit of the doubt that it could fix and it's just not happening. Like I was at, um, I shared that video of a Jack lighter throwing the other day and Kumar Rocker was there. And just during this little simple throwing,

you know, session, just fastballs all over the place. It still cannot be commanded. And until I, until he maybe pulls a hunter green and finds comfort at any part of the count, throwing that slider, which he needs to do and finding some semblance of command. I just don't see him as a starter. I really think he's going to go into relief and I'm out. And I wasn't out before.

And that was wrong that I'm out on Kumar Rocker because there's no fastball command whatsoever. He has become a two-pitch pitcher, and one of them doesn't even work. So it's not worth it, even though you're going to be like, oh my God, Kamar Rocker and the name value, do I really take Landon Sims, or do I really take his teammate who went in the third round, Brock Porter, over him?

I think at this point you do, and I think you agree with me. Yeah, yeah. I'm just happy for Kumar that he got his signing bonus and uh you know i i hope things turn around for him but if i had kumar rocker in the dynasty league i would just be crossing my fingers that he could be their closer in a couple years yeah i think that's what you're playing for uh last up just some deep names here we obviously focused you know 10 to 20 players uh first to second round here we got only only a couple minutes. You gave out your top five sleeper names. Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay first baseman.

Brandon Barrera with the Toronto Blue Jays, really good pitcher. Connor Prelip with the Twins. Judd Fabian with the Orioles. And Ben Joyce, very interesting one. Ben Joyce, famously at Tennessee, was a kid that threw like 104 miles per hour. He's a reliever. Could be a closer. Could be up with the angels sooner rather than later um you want a quick little snippet on one or two or even

all of these guys these were your big top five deeper names in first year player yeah i mean isaac and barriera uh prep guys upside plays you know they're kind of boom or bust uh isaac i think it's just going to be an exit velocity king, and that alone could push him up rankings, but I think there's big time upside with those two. Prelip, I don't even value Prelip that much lower than like Cade Horton or Cooper Jerpy. I think he's the third best college pitcher from the class. I think the Twins got a steal there.

He just had Tommy John, I think, that end of the year, correct? He had it at Alabama, but he's been throwing since the fall i believe it was like early early in last college season so that's probably why he's back doing it yeah so i think you know sometimes uh we see this with you know the jesus lizardo's walker bueller types they come back from tj and then they just rocket up lists because people remember how good the stuff was uh judd fabian was a guy that i'd been out on for a while obviously he's been on the draft radar for years but the orioles get their hands on him and all of a sudden he's making really good swing decisions in a brief sample and pro ball so i think there might be something there big time tools and then

yeah ben joyce uh if you don't want to take a relief pitching prospect, I understand. But if you're hunting for a closer, if you're hunting for a potential closer with upside, hard to overlook Joyce. I mean, the stuff obviously is well documented, clear path to saves in that bullpen. And even the stuff just from from big league camp this year they've been saying like like they haven't been like we're not carrying joyce this year they probably won't but i think we could see joyce this year and i think you could even get saves this year that's right how much have you been loving seeing uh all the prospect love in spring training by the way jordan walker jordan walker rocking corbin carroll going uh any just spring prospect things that come to mind?

There's been a whole lot of production we've had. This hasn't do with first-year player, by the way, but just curious on any of the spring training prospects that have got you going. I'm just really annoyed at how I can't seem to get Brandon Fott in any drafts. Like, I love him. Like, I want to be the high man on Brandon fat. I want him on all my teams and everyone else is doing the same thing.

You know, it's funny. I think I did, uh, um, I did, I don't remember what it was. It was like in November, October. I don't remember if it was prospect one or CBS. I did a show and I talked about him and you immediately hit me up after. And you're like, I love the Brandon fought call because you were back then. Like I think you were almost like quietly sitting there. Like you're like, I'm going to be the Brandon fought guy. And then I've been talking about him and you've been talking about him. I got hit up today by a friend of ours in the industry that was like,

is he going to make the roster? And I was like, no guarantees, but he's for sure not guaranteed to go to AAA. I think that's what some people think. Like no matter what he does, there's no way. And I'm like, no, that's not the case with him. Like, I think the Diamondbacks are open to it.

And I think the differentiating thing with Fott is the innings he put up last year. There's no excuse. Like, he put up like 160 innings. There's no excuse for him to have to go to the minors over Ryan Nelson or Dre Jamison for one of those reasons. It's got to come down to performance or it'll come down to like, you know,

old school manager, like, well, Ryan Nelson had the gig and we're going to give him a shot. Like it could be that type of thing. But Brandon fought has been the, he's probably been the second best pitcher in all of diamondbacks camp. And that's why he continuously moves up.

If the diamondbacks were to name him rocket ship, right? Yeah. Well, 100% there, but i actually wouldn't even hate it like if they say okay fat's gonna start there at triple a that would i wouldn't even mind that because then i'd be able to get a bunch like oh because then the cost would come down yeah i don't think he's gonna be if he goes to triple a he's gonna be there for weeks not months and it might only be a couple weeks might only be three weeks and zach davies is not standing in his way davies is just there as like org depth uh and like you said fought you know what is he probably their third best starting

pitcher in camp uh conservatively so yeah conservatively he has been he has been phenomenal i got to see him the other day i totally totally agree with that. Okay, that's a good takeaway. What do you got going on, Rotowire, for people to check out? What do you want to plug? I wrote about my AL labor auction from the weekend, and then I've got volume 2.0 of my rookie hitter tiers and rookie pitcher tiers coming up. We'll be talking about Jordan Walker in those.

We'll be talking about other guys who have been kind of improving their redraft stock uh this spring awesome well guys i know there was no eno and no dvr i know it can be very very jarring and it can make you appreciate even more what you have in dvr and eno but i do hope that you found some enjoyment out of it i hopefully uh hope it was helpful especially if you guys have first year player coming up you may have already had it but maybe this will give you some perspective for values. If you have them coming up, hopefully this puts you in a good spot. You can go and check out James's ranks over at Rotowire. You can subscribe.

You can check mine as well. I've got first-year player and top 500 just updated in the last 24 hours over at inthisleague.com. But hopefully it was an easy transition to an episode like this where I don't even know when the last time you didn't have both of those guys. But, you know, I was enjoying a little bit of time that is going to do it here at rates and barrels. If you guys want, go and check out the athletic dot com slash rates and barrels to subscribe. Get the draft kit. Help you. The ultimate stuff. I've got some stuff in there. You know, everybody wrote a few little things and there's a whole bunch of stuff in there.

You can get the pitching plus projections, my dynasty ranks, and all of the fantastic articles. It's something I forget. Sometimes I go to an article. I'm like, oh, this looks like a great article. It's the athletic. And I can easily click on because I have my subscription because I'm working here right now. So it helps out. But that's going to do it for the episode. You can find James on Twitter at RealJRAnderson. You can find me on Twitter at IsItTheWelsh. We will be back later in the week. It's Al, it's Eno, and I'm actually going to be back here on Friday with Eno as well. So a little bit more of me. Thank you guys for hanging out right here

on Rates and Barrels. Bye friends.