Rates & Barrels - Goodbye to LOL Mets?

Episode Date: May 6, 2025

Will Sammon joins Eno and DVR to discuss the Mets' increasing distance from 'LOL Mets' thanks to their continued growth in pitching development throughout the organization. Plus, they discuss the ongoing questions around Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña's path to lock down the second-base job, and changes to Mark Vientos' approach that haven't paid off yet. Plus, they discuss bloated ratios, Dylan Cease's bad luck to begin 2025, and Jasson Domínugez as a long-term target.Rundown2:11 Clay Holmes' Excellent Start to 20255:56 Griffin Canning's Relatively Simple Adjustments11:49 Taking Small Market Success Into a Big Budget Situation14:33 Tylor Megill's Short & Long-Term Changes17:27 David Peterson is the Mets' Andrew Abbott21:06 Questions Around the Mets' Bats27:24 Trading Bat Speed for an All-Fields Approach?37:04 Hope for Damaged ERA and WHIP?44:26 What's Going On with Dylan Cease?49:56 Jasson Domínguez: Still a Long-Term Target?Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.socialFollow Will on Bluesky: @willsammon.bsky.sociale-mail: [e-mail] our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Will SammonProducer: Brian SmithExecutive Producer: Derek VanRiper Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to Raids of Varelz, Tuesday, May 6th. Derek Fenriper, Enos Saris and Will Salmon of The Athletic joining us today. We're going to talk a lot of Mets here with Will as this show gets underway. I think we can actually, maybe today's the day we officially bury LOL Mets, if it wasn't already buried last year. This franchise just isn't the same anymore, Will. This is not the Mets team I grew up watching and laughing at.

This is a team that is clearly doing a lot of things really, really well. We'll dig into what's clicking for them so far, a few things that haven't yet, and try to answer some lingering questions people have about this team. Will, first and foremost, thank you for joining us today. Yeah, thanks for having me.

Sorry in advance for the sounds of New York City that you may hear. I have my window open, but I'm sure some people will appreciate the horn honking and the screaming. Hey, a little bit less with congestive pricing, right? A little bit, yeah, a little bit. It depends on who you ask.

Yeah. Yeah. I don't hear anything so far, so the magic of automatic sound blocking is working to our benefit so far. But a lot of ground to cover with this Mets team. Let's start in the rotation, where entering play on Tuesday,

the Mets rotation is seventh league wide in strikeout minus walk percentage 15.5% first an ERA by a healthy margin with a 270 ERA a 130 whip little strange to see those numbers side-by-side tied for 17th But they do have a 319 babbip third highest in the league and they're middle of the pack in terms of innings pitch So they're working about as much as the typical rotation so far. Given the injuries they've had to Frankie Montaz and Sean Manaya, this is probably about as well as anyone could have hoped things were going.

But part of the reason this team is not the LOL Mets anymore is the leadership. Right. A lot has changed in terms of the players they seek out, how they make adjustments for those players. I mean, Clay Holmes is a starter. Could this be going any better than it has so far through seven starts? Probably not, but for the Mets people, they sort of expected this to happen.

And I know Innu and I have spoken about Clay Holmes a lot heading into the season. And I don't think really we're all that too surprised by it. I don't want to speak for, you know, he'll have his own thoughts of course, but I'm not like completely shocked by the results so far. And I expect them to only get better as time goes on because he really hasn't worked too deeply into games yet.

And that will come, but hasn't happened yet. And so I'm excited to see that unfold. But I always liked the pitch mix that he was working on heading into the season. And he got to the spring training super early. He got there like in the middle of January, actually weeks before even like the earlier rivals. Come.

So he had been working for this moment to be on a pretty good pace. And I think we learned last year with the Mets, uh, particularly with Luis Everino, who was coming off of a few seasons of injuries and just hadn't pitched a whole lot. They're not really afraid to push the envelope a little bit with their pitchers when it comes to the volume. I don't think that they have a set number in mind

when it comes to Clay Holmes as innings total. I think that that will come whenever it comes. And I think that that will be something that they'll know by his performance, how he's feeling. And they will probably allow that to dictate how far he goes. But I assume that he's going to be full goal the whole year. And I think that he's a great example of what David Stearns

has been able to do here in a short amount of time, which is really steer away from those big marquee free agent signings, whether it was Corbin Burns or whoever else from the past couple of years. And instead, Target maybe some value plays. And I think there's no better value play than Clay Holmes right now. The contract that he signed for three-year deal just looks great. I mean, there are people who told me that originally right off the bat that this was going to be one of those plays. And it has turned out that way. And it's a credit to him, of course, because he's the one

doing it. But the Mets have really helped him out, have really enhanced his stuff, whether it's been Jeremy Hefner or the Mets pitching coach or other people who have been part of that evolution. I look at him as one of their most dependable starters, if not the most dependable guy right there up along with Kodai Senga. Yeah, I mean, I think that's what interesting thing about that contract is, you know, I think pitching is so volatile. You know, I know Aaron Nola is doing about that contract is, you know, I think pitching is so volatile. You know, I know Aaron Ola is doing all right, but you know, he comes to camp in the first year of like a six, seven year deal.

I forget exactly what it was, but he's he's he's on a contract for a lot more years and his veto is down to like 91. You know, like as an executive, you'd be like, oh boy, you know, we have like six more years of wondering when the other shoe is gonna drop. Where if you sign a three year deal with Clay Holmes, I think the floor is so high. The worst case scenario is he goes back to the bullpen and he's like a primo setup guy for, you know, maybe a tiny bit more than you wanted to pay for your setup guy.

I thought that just made a lot of sense and it still makes sense. I think even with Jordan Hicks's, you know, up and down nature with the Giants, like, you know, he was a value to them out of the bullpen last year. And in other ways saying it is innings or innings and they seem to find their innings in a lot of different places. One thing that, you know, that kind of stood out for me for him versus canning, you know, because these are, you know, canning is another guy you just sort of bring in. You're like innings or innings, this guy could work out.

Is that I heard a lot about like, oh, this is what we're gonna do with Canning. We're gonna do this. Oh, they're totally gonna give him a sinker. They're gonna do all this stuff. And if you look at what Canning has done year over year, it's really very little. He's just throwing a slider more.

It's like, but Orange Line is the sinker. He's not throwing a sinker more. There's just he's just throwing a slider more. It's like but orange line is the sinker He's not throwing a sinker more There's a little tiny dot for cutter if you can you can barely see it that he's throwing a cutter 2% of the time He didn't used to but if you were gonna sum up what canning is doing differently than last year It's throwing a slider more Whereas clay holmes is you know game to game? throwing I Whereas Clay Holmes is, you know, game to game throwing, I would say, maybe 33% of his pitches are pitches he didn't throw before. Ever. Or, yeah, I think ever. Or maybe he had thrown a four-seam that was almost as good in the playoffs.

But really, these are three new pitches. He's a new guy. I just wonder what your assessment is of pitching development there. I mean, you can't say that canning is not a win anyway. I'm just saying that like, do we over overvalue, you know, some of it, the park is some of it just good fortune. I mean, we're only a month into the season, or do you get a real sense that they have something dialed in when it comes to pitching development and plans. I mean, you can go back further. Seve, Seve is a big win and they're starting to pile up wins when it comes to pitching development.

Yeah, you could also throw in Shamanaya in there as well from last year, although he had that Chris Dale like transformation that he sort of thought on his own by watching Chris Dale that time. But you need some good coaching in there to one, understand like what a player wants to do and help them get there. It's not as if they just sat idly and watched him go. They helped him along in that process. But yeah, I think it's a combination of both.

I spoke with an AL executive at a different time of the year. I think it was maybe just before the season started about Griffin Canning. They were one of the teams that were involved with him as well before he ended up signing with the Mets. And I had just asked him like, hey, like what would you have done with this guy?

Cause I know I had a pretty good idea of what the Mets would have done or would it be doing with Canning. And I just wanted to kind of compare it to kind of get at this question and see like, okay, like is this something that the Mets are going to do a little bit differently than other teams or is this what pretty much everybody was gonna do? And the answer was, this is pretty much what everybody would have done.

Other than the angels, I guess. Seems that we know, don't have a great grasp of how to do this in comparison to these other clubs, right? So what that guy told me, I don't want to give away the team. But what he told me was basically like, yeah, we would have just told him to throw a slider more. And that was pretty much it. And I'm watching these starts go by and every single time I'm texting this guy, yeah, he's still throwing the slider, still throwing the slider. The other thing I will say about Canning though is that they were also taking him off a little bit of that four seam fastball, which wasn't that good of a pitch. So as we've seen the slider increase, the four-seam has decreased a little bit. And I think he's using it just better, for lack of a better way to put that. Like he's a lot smarter with it.

I think he's challenging guys with it when they're not expecting it. I think he's learned to pitch a little bit backward as well, where instead of going fastball, fastball, he's kind of setting up guys for the fastball with his off-speed stuff originally, like in the beginning of an at bat. So that's kind of different. And then obviously like the more times he does that, the more times teams are going

to expect him to do it. So he's going to have to mix it up a little bit. And we've seen a little bit of that as well. So he's an interesting one. But yeah, I think that it wouldn't be too different else. Like if he was in the right hands at a different organization, like name your other organization that's doing pitching well, he would have been just fine. I think he's a good, really good athlete as well. And, you know, gets a lot of balls on the ground when he's, when he's rolling, right. So I don't know, he's not probably the best example for them.

And I think that there's more to come. But the reason why I think the Mets are actually doing it right from a pitching development standpoint is if you look beyond their major leagues, major league roster, and you just kind of canvas their minor league staff, all those dudes are like top of the charts when it comes to strikeout, right? And they're learning, and these are young kids, whether they're in St. Lucie, Loay, or High A, Brooklyn, or wherever it is. So like the walks are going to be there or whatnot, but you can just A, Brooklyn or wherever it is. So like the walks are going to be there or whatnot, but you can just tell this stuff is like they're really getting the most out of all these kids. And that's where I'm like, okay, this is really about to take off because

it's not just the first round draft pick type guys or those high pedigree guys. It's some random guys that are getting for like 10 K from a couple of years ago and international signings that are like, okay, wow from a couple of years ago and international signings that are like, okay, wow, look at this guy now. There was that guy, Ramon Gomez, for instance, who's throwing like 105 miles an hour or something like that in St. Lucie. So it's pretty incredible, like how many pitchers are

seemingly on the cusp within their system. So I pointed that and I feel like for the Mets, that's going to be more important, if not just as important as these external guys that they're bringing in, these acquisitions, because here in New York, everybody kind of points to them and they're like, okay, well, now all these free agents are gonna be so happy

to go to the Mets and this and that. And yeah, that's good. But like the best path for the Mets to succeed is to not even look at free agency, to develop these guys on your own. And I think that's where David Sterns really thrived in Milwaukee with the Brewers, of course. And I think that's what he's sort of instituting here

with some guys who had been here before his arrival too, whether it's like Eric Jaggers or Jeremy Hefner. These were people who have really renowned reputations in the pitching world. And I think pairing them with David Sterns and everybody else that's been part of this process since Sterns' arrival has made for some really, really good things for the Mets. That's kind of what makes the Mets the franchise that could push the Dodgers in a lot of ways in the National League is that they have the smaller market GM that had to do it on a budget for a long time in Stearns,

much like the Dodgers had Andrew Friedman coming from the Rays. You take that and you add resources at the top and you can say, you know what? We're not gonna mess around in the mid tiers of free agency unless there's someone really like, but we can go to the mat at the very top end where we know, yeah, maybe we're overpaying dollars per win

because that's what you have to do, but guess what? We develop so well, we always have players people want to trade for, and we're finding guys in the margins and making them better. That's how you make a team that wins 95 games on an annual basis, right? That's what I think makes the franchise so dangerous.

The combination of guy who's done it before having basically unlimited resources now to go out and do whatever he wants in terms of player development, staffing, however he wants to build it. The name that immediately kind of popped into my head is one that was not on my radar even a couple of weeks ago, Jonah Tong. It's a seventh round pick out of high school in the 2022 draft who's now starting to pop up on top 100 prospect list.

I think he had just saw him, he's 92 on the list over at Fangraphs now. He's got a 40% K rate at AA. That's the kind of stuff the Mets are doing now that they did not used to do nearly as well. Yeah, I think you bring up a good point as well with the idea that they're going to trade some of these kids.

And that's really like the thing that the Mets didn't really have at their disposal up until very recently. I remember when I first started covering the Mets in 2022 for that trade deadline, they had a pretty good team that year and they were looking to add to it at the deadline. And I had come over to cover them in the middle of the summer. So it was right before the trade deadline. And I didn't really know too many people within the Mets at that time. But I knew enough people around baseball

to ask just about their system and like what they can do at the trade deadline. Who do you like? The answer was, we don't really like many of their guys. That was the consensus of their pitching stat, their pitching development in like A ball, double A, whatever it was, it was, they don't really got those type of like

intriguing arms that we wanna put a a fire on and maybe acquire, whether it was for a reliever or whatever it is. Now they do. Like they have a bunch of guys that they could flip at the deadline. They did it last year and the Jesse Winker trade was an example. There were a couple of others. The Brazzobon trade was another one. They did it already.

They'll probably do it again and it's their best path for long-term success for sure. I think Tyler Meggul also is an example of a guy that they've kind of nursed all the way along and you know there's long-term changes that he's made that I think speak to just the how they've gotten proved over time and then there's really like I was looking through it it's kind of amazing. He's banged a cutter that he threw last year. He's a new slider that six inches more drop than he had last year. His four seam has the best ride of his career.

Curveball has more movement change up hasn't fade. It's like all of these things are coming into play. So if you, when you talk to the players about, you know, what they've done, or you talk to canning about what they've seen before. What do they have to say about pitching development in New York? For a guy like Canning, it was one of the driving factors in him picking the Mets, actually.

And he cited their technology and what they were telling him in these meetings. I know from hearing it, even before talking to Griffin Canning, that that meeting went exceedingly well with the Mets. And a lot of their pitching meetings do go well. They have plans in place of like, hey, this is what we're seeing.

This is what we would do if you come here, that kind of thing. And they really hit it off. I'm glad you mentioned McGill, though, because I feel like he's just like the perfect example of a lot of things working for the Mets. Because he was struggling last year. He's had these bouts of inconsist, where I know if people have had in,

in fantasy baseball, they they've suffered through it for a while, but he's had these ups and downs. And last year, I thought he really did a significant change in the way he was pitching when he picked up a sinker. And I feel like that one pitch in particular will help him sort of overcome those huge ups and downs going forward. And we've already seen that a little bit more sustained so far this year than we have in the past. I think that pitch is a great example, because that was something that they sort of pinpointed of like, Hey, we'd like to add this to your repertoire.

And they brought in AAA Pitching Coach at the time, Grayson Crawford, to help along with that process. He now has been promoted to a coordinator role within the organization. And he was key in like just trying to work with McGill on making sure that he had match three of that pitch, or at least to a level where he could start using it in games pretty quickly. And so he did it. He implemented it, and it's really taken off. And now we're almost, we're closing in on almost a year later on it. And if you look at his numbers just from like when he came back from AAA and rejoined the Mets from last year to now, it's pretty incredible. I mean, like he's, he's up there in almost every category. You'd like to see him to get deeper into games, but that's the next step for him.

And he's shown signs of being capable of doing that because he's limiting his walks a little bit better than he had in years past. So he's an exciting one. I think he underscores a lot of what they're doing right when it comes to pitching development over there. What have you seen with David Peterson so far this year? I mean, the glance at his FanGraphs page shows you the best walk rate of his career. So the simplest explanation is that he's just not walking as many guys. Is there anything he's changed in terms of how he's pitching, anything in the mix

that you've seen that's different that's made him more effective? Getting his hip fixed was a game changer for him and he did that ahead of last season. Once he was fully healthy, I think we're seeing him a lot more comfortable and a lot more available for the Mets and he's able to kind of go five, six innings. I have some concerns with Peterson every single time he pitches just because the hard contact is always there, I feel like, and the advanced numbers continue to hate him start after start after start. And I look at it every time and I'm like, okay, like when are the wheels going to fall off? They never really do. Like he's able to pitch out

of these jams really effectively. And I sit there and I'm like, how's like, when are the wheels going to fall off? They never really do. Like he's able to pitch out of these jams really effectively. And I sit there and I'm like, how's he doing this every single time? And I don't really have a great answer for it. I've asked people within the Mets and they just point to it as like, it's kind of an art, like the way he does it.

And there may be something to that. I hate things that I can't look at and point to and be like, okay, like that's the reason for it. And with David Peterson, he makes big pitches and big spots and, and some guys can do that and other people maybe can't. And so like, there's probably some learned skills there that he's able to do. But just from a pure statistical analysis, I can never make sense of David Peterson. I really can.

And I watch every fifth day and he defies me every fifth day, which is a credit to him. I mean, he does it. So at some point, I think we have to say to ourselves, like, I guess it is real. Like the advanced numbers hate him. All those metrics say that he should have some like this huge drop off or this regression coming. It just never really comes. And there are games where he has more base runners than not, but he gets through it and it ends up being a fairly decent line, if not better than that almost every fifth day for the Mets. I've struggled with him a long time because

you know nothing really stands out Velo or movement wise, but you know I think there's a couple things going on. I think he like doesn't give in. You talked about it a little bit with the the mindset there than the big pitches thing. I think he's like more willing to walk a guy than like I'm not going to come middle. I'm not going to let you hit a three run hom pitches thing. I think he's more willing to walk a guy than like, I'm not gonna come middle. I'm not gonna let you hit a three run homer here. I'd rather have two walks and have traffic and maybe get a grounder and get out of it.

And then the other thing, I think there's something here. If you look here, his movement profile on the slider last year was kind of all over the place. The yellow pitch there in the middle in 2024, it almost looks like he has maybe two sliders or maybe he was changing things during the course of the year, but that's a big spread. This year, if you look at the yellow, it's all in a dot. And sometimes people finesse sliders and want to get more movement or less movement. When I see that dot there, I'm not surprised at all to see that his command, the command metrics on the pitch have really come forward on the slider. You know, I think

the hip thing was huge, but I think there's also something going on in terms of finding a slider, maybe just some maturity as a pitcher where he's like, now I know what all my pitches do, I know what they're going to do, I know where they're going to go, and the command is kind of coming on last bit. So, and a guy with the with near league average stuff that that improves his command, like this could be, I think this could be a great season for him. But I do, you know, I do wonder, as much as we've said nice things about the pitching, you know, I do wonder sometimes when I look at their hitting, and it would make sense if you have this park that's friendly to pitchers, maybe it's a little bit easier to, you know, take a young pitcher, put him in there, and not every mistake they make gets blasted.

Then the opposite can be true sometimes when you take young players in there. And we've had some wins, you know, with these hitting group, and we've had some losses. I mean, Brett Beatty, I feel like the Rays are going to pick him up at some point and he's going to be fine for them because he hits the ball hard. He's like a Raysian hitter. He hits the ball hard. He can make contact. He has a sense of the zone.

He can't lift it. You know? And I feel like they've been banging their head against the wall with Brett Beaty for a long time. Mark Vientos comes up, looks really good, hits the ball super hard. This year he's not hitting the ball as hard. You know, Alvarez has kind of come, come and go. So just what's your sense of, you know, the young, the young hitters on the squad. And I have a lot of sympathy because I think that developing hitting is super hard. And I think there's a lot of

smart organizations that still have trouble with it. But what do you think is the state of the young hitters on the squad? Yeah, the Mets also have the problem of they have to do it here in the city. And like if you have a couple of bad games here, it weighs on you, I think in ways where it doesn't weigh on you in other places. I firmly believe that. And the slump that Brett Beatty got on at the beginning of his first, first trip here with the Mets. He broke camp. The first 10 or so games were horrendous. I mean, it was, he had a few hits, no walks. It was like 30 plate appearances, a bunch of strikeouts

and worse than all that. I mean, he was swinging at, he was down 0-2 in the count almost every single at bat. It was 0-1, 0-2 every single time. So I think that was a big, he was just got very defensive. I think that's why you saw those ground balls was just a very defensive swing and it got better. But by the time it got better, it was already pretty obvious

that he was going to be the odd man out once they got healthier and that was indeed the case. So he's back now and we'll see how much he plays. I'm not really sure. I'm at this point, there's definitely some openings with the DH with Jesse Winker on the shelf right now with an oblique injury. So we'll see how much time he can get and whether or not he could string together some consistent games. In the big picture though, I think the endos are still pretty solid for what he is. I don't think anybody's going to

confuse him with one being anything close to a goal-glover at defense. He's not very good. use him with one being anything close to a goal Glover and a defense like he's not good. He's very slow. And I think that affects him defensively as well. He does not have great lateral range there. And I think he's just susceptible to these bleeders or these even bunt hits at times. And that's a free base for a lot of teams sometimes too often, frankly, but for what he is as a hitter, I think if your expectations are that 25 to 30 homerun range with a sort of a low batting average, low on base, that's probably who he is right now.

I'll give him some credit for trying to get better at that though. He's not trying to be just a fast ball hitter. I think the numbers on the fast ball are a little bit lower than what you may anticipate heading into the season. But part of that, Eric Chavez, their hitting coach explained to me is mostly because he's trying to work on the off-speed stuff. So he's a tick late on fastballs. And right now they're okay with that. And that's why you're also seeing a little bit more

hits to right field, the opposite field for him, because he is a little bit late and they're okay with that because they have no qualms about him being able to get better at those fastballs like he always has in the past, while also trying to become a better hitter overall and get better at pitches and not get fooled by sliders in the dirt or 2-1 sliders that get them back into count, that kind of thing. So I'm okay with the Entos for the most part. Alvarez I'm not sure about just because like you said, it's been good and bad and it's been sort of all over the map.

We had a question at the athletic recently, somebody had asked me like, where's his power gone? It's been eight games. So it's hard to say like, you know, like, look, I get it. It's not the 25 home runs that he hit as a rookie or whatever that was, but there were not a lot of other good numbers with that first season for Francisco Alvarez.

There were some really bad numbers along with that home run total. And so he's also tried to like get better at those areas and become a little bit more well-rounded as opposed to just pulling every ball for a home run type of thing, because that's just not going to be a great practice for you. So I think that there's some patience, long-winded way of saying that there's probably some patience that will go with these guys because they're still fairly young into their careers. But we're at the point now, particularly with like an Alvarez or a Vientos who's gotten a lot of the runway where we have to see it a little bit more consistently. Again, with Vientos, I'm not really that concerned with because he had the big postseason, particularly after a bad

September. I thought that was a great sort of lesson for him and it kind of proved to us in the media and people who are watching him, like, yeah, he can do it. When he suffers like those kinds of stretches, like he can get better, he can overcome them. So I'm actually excited to see like what he does over the course of a full season here. And I'm more so intrigued about Alvarez because he also had that batting, the swing change

that he made way back in the spring, which a lot of people probably forgot about because he also had that batting, the swing change that he made way back in the spring, which a lot of people probably forgot about because he was injured and came back. So I think we have to give him a little bit more time too before we have more informed opinions on like what he could be for this. That swing change was oriented towards the same sort of stuff you're talking about, maybe being able to go to the opposite field and being able to make more contact, right? Yes. And that was with the help of JD Martinez. So like he's a little bit more upright in the box too. It's very noticeable.

Like if you do like the 2024 comparison in 2023, I mean, I'm sorry, 2025 and 2024. Sometimes I forget that we're in 2025, but yeah, it's about five months into the year. I'm still doing that. But yeah, if you do those side-by-sides, it's pretty obvious. Like it's drastic difference for Alvarez. So we'll see what comes out of it. You're touching on something that I hadn't made the connections here because we have this Batspeed Losers leaderboard and it is weird. I mean, there's Marc Vientos, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto are on here right in the middle of the biggest bat speed losers year over year.

But the team's going well as a group. Lindor's hitting well. Soto's not too far off his norms. And then I go over to the team strikeout rate thing and oh, look at this, the Mets are second in the big leagues in strikeout rate. And then I look over at opposite field percentage and look at that, there's the Padres number one,

who are the other team that's great at making contact, and the Mets number four in terms of going Oppo. And we know that bat speed is measured at a point of contact and that a further out in front point of contact can lead to better bat speed numbers. So it seems like Chavez is kind of has this all fields approach that he's trying to get across to his hitters, take the ball where it's pitched, make more contact. I like it. I think I even see some of that in what Pete Alonso is doing right now.

I guess the nice part is that with Soto, for example, you start with elite bat speed. So if he loses a mile off of that, but gains more contact, maybe that's worth it. I wonder with Viento's I'm a little bit more worried because he had pretty good bat speed and now he has more on league average. And I don't know if that's just an artifact of where he's making contact. If there is an actual, if there's like an injury or if there's something that that's nagging him you talking about sees the you know Chavez is Like this the way he's what he's saying to them and what they're working on Makes me think that it's on purpose and it has to do with contact and making more contact and kind of keeping the line

Of going and maybe that is the best approach frankly in that ballpark. I mean you don't really want to have like the rocky sort of all or nothing hit the ball hard or strike out approach I think in that ballpark. I think that would lead to a lot of low scoring games. Yeah I think that may be the missing context there for some cases maybe with the Entos because it sounds a little hokey but it is actually like what they are trying to do. I think that they're trying to be a lot better at two strikes as well. Yeah, I think their numbers there are probably pretty solid. Last time I looked, they were at least, and relative to where they were last year, that became a little bit of an issue for them. They're also a team that sees a lot of spin as well. So I think that they've been very hyper-conscious of that during their meetings and trying to make sure that they're

ready for that for that amount. They don't see fastballs too often. So that could be part of it as well. There are some things that I think that are probably third least fastballs in the big leagues for a while. They were the least. I can't do the math on the fly, but I mean in sliders They're ninth, but they're also in curve balls eighth and then cutters their third So if you count cutters as breaking balls, they're probably you know top five and breaking ball scene. Yeah, so Definitely something there about what what they're seeing and what the best approach is against what they're seeing. Yeah, I think they're trying to figure that out as well,

but that, to me, when I look at it and the stats that you bring up when it comes to their bat speed, it does like, it's nice when like the anecdotal stuff in my mind matches the statistics stuff, right? Like, yeah, that makes sense. Like, yeah, that makes perfect sense. But we'll see like what it

means I guess like later on maybe in another month or two. But the bad speed thing is something that I like I've noticed like anecdotally with the Entos and you try to make sense of it and he's in there every day. So he looks healthy to me seem like a healthy available player and all that. I just think that eventually the power and the bad speed I think like when he gets to a place where he's a little bit more comfortable at the plate. I think that eventually the power and the bat speed, I think like when he gets to a place where he's a little bit more comfortable at the plate, I think that stuff will come. I really do.

I don't really have too many qualms with the end dose. Right. It's an idea of like, he kind of has to focus on going the other way and making contact for a while to develop that part of his brain, develop that part of his approach. And at some point he'll be able to be like, no, I'm gonna be aggressive. He'll kind of toggle that I'll be aggressive here in this count and

Be able to kind of play around with that Because the K-rate is down so much and he's not chasing quite as much like you can kind of look at the slow start With all this context and say all right. This is probably fine He's gonna it's gonna get back to being himself or kind of merge the new approach with what he was doing and come back out as a 25 homer guy at the end of the season. Projection still like him to come into that total over time, even though it's been less than we've expected so far. One last question before we let you go, will second base kind of seems like an ongoing job battle for this team. I think through 36 games, we've seen Luis Angel Acuna there for 20 starts, Brett Bates made 12 starts at second base, McNeil's only made four, he's been banged up this year,

but he's also been in the outfield mix too. Who do you see as the most likely candidate in the organization to possibly take the job and just run away with it between now and the end of the season? It's a great question because I'm not sure if there is one guy who will do it. And I think that there was sort of a blueprint

in place for them last year when it was Jose Iglesias in that spot with Jeff McNeil. And we saw in the second half that Carlos Mendoza used both of them really. And he found ways to actually use both in the lineup at the same time because of at the time it was Iglesias availability to play a little bit of third base to get Viento's a dh there or whatever it was and McNeil's versatility

Which is well known that he could play the outfield a little bit of left field a little bit right field at that time last year so I look at this year's group in the similar way and The big guy for me though Even despite that would be Luis Angel Acuña. Just because he offers a dynamic to the Mets that they don't really have otherwise and that's his speed. They really appreciate that part of his game. And I think that they really like what they see when it's him and Landoor up the middle.

We talked about David Stearns before. He's a big proponent of having up middle defense being of value and being where the team is strong at. And in some areas, he's willing to sacrifice defense on the, at the corners, if it means more offense, and if it means getting that defense up the middle to a place where he wants it to be. And so I think that the idea of Jeff McNeil even playing some center field nowadays, which they've done, that is a testament to how much they like Luis Hanhela Cunha at second base. Because otherwise you don't even mess with that, right? You just trot Tyrone Taylor out there and having bad ninths even against the right-handers. And that's just what it is. But no, they're saying like, hey, we want McNeil in there. And the way to get McNeil

in there is Center Field sometimes because we want Acuna to play a bunch. So I remember in the beginning of our conversation when we brought up Brett Beatty, I said I wasn't really sure where the playing time goes because Acuna has outplayed him. So I don't think it really, and now that McNeil is back in the fold, you don't really need that lefty platooning going on

as much from Beatty, which was what they were doing with him and Acuna. They could just slide McNeil there if they want to do that. So I'm a little bit worried about how much playing time Beatty gets in this stint with the Mets because I just feel strongly that Acuna is the better player right now. But as far as if he's going to be V-guy, I'm not really sure just because they've already demonstrated that McNeil will still get starts at second base. And they're not really afraid to put that left handed bat there. And I think it depends on who's pitching as well. Like a lot of times when they have these guys who have these ground ball rates like Clay Holmes, they want a Cunha there. But sometimes they can get away with having McNeil there or in times

where there's not going to be as many fly balls. I remember McNeil's first game in centerfield, there wasn't a ball hit to him because it was Clay Holmes pitching. So sometimes they want McNeil in center field because they know that it's not going to matter much anyway for six innings or whatever it is. And you could always swap them in defensively. So, you know, Kuhn is going to get a bunch of at bats. And I think that they love his speed and his defense.

It's just a different dynamic and he's hitting right now. He's getting on base. And that was the big question of his game. And so right now he's doing it. And I think he deserves a lot of the action there. And if he can be an Andre Cimenez, Bryce Terang type player for them, where it's, you know, it's glove and speed over everything else. That's fine, because they've got plenty of other guys in that lineup

that can do damage on the power front. Will, thank you so much for joining us today. We appreciate your insight before we let you go. Let our listeners know where they can follow damage on the power front. Will, thank you so much for joining us today. We appreciate your insight before we let you go. Let our listeners know where they can follow you on social. Yeah, I'm on BlueSky and X at Bull Salmon. Pretty easy to follow there. And alongside Tim Britton, we have a bunch of stuff rolling out this week as the Mets head back home.

Got some stuff on Clay Holmes coming up, a little bit of Luis Angel Acuña. So I'm glad we mentioned him. So a lot of good stuff on the way. And obviously we're chronicling Pete Alonso success every day, it seems like. And a guy named Juan Soto in right field for the Mets these days. So a lot going on with the Mets and we covered all at the athletic alongside Tim. Yeah, you guys do a great job on that beat and we appreciate you as always. Of course. Thanks for having me.

All right, let's get to a few mailbag questions here on this Tuesday. You know, we got a question from Luke Proctor that's been rolling over on the rundown for a couple of days. If your ratios are a mess here on May 6th, is there still hope to dig your way out of those holes in RotoLeague?

Usually ERA and WIP kind of get sunk together and you feel extra terrible because it's two categories instead of just one, right? If you're lacking in batting average, it's a bummer. But how do you feel about teams that are struggling in ratios this early in the season? When do you start to get a little more aggressive trying to dig out of that hole?

And then when would you toggle into possible punt mode on a category or two? Yeah, that's an interesting question. I just had like a weird way of thinking about it. So it's not the same in every league and you obviously need more than six pitchers, but you know, if you think of a traditional nine man, nine starting pitcher lineup and you're a nine pitcher lineup and you what you're going to do with that. A lot of times you six starting pitchers right and there

are six months so it's just a weird way of thinking about it it's just that like okay let's say for the first month you're terrible you expected to have six good pitchers right and in the first month you were terrible you kind of now have to have seven good pitchers, right? To replace the pitcher that was the month, right? And at some point that becomes untenable. And I think in the next, you know, if you can't make any movement in the next two or three weeks,

it's impossible to have 10 good pitchers when you couldn't have six to begin with. You know what I mean? Right, right. It's still possible that five of your guys are better going forward and you find another guy and then you have seven good pitchers and you make up for that bad month.

That's still possible. But as the numbers change and you're like, oh, I actually need to have nine or 10 good pitchers and I don't even have four. So I'd say somewhere in the next two to three weeks, you should make the decision. And there is a, this is the decision. Do you stream and go hard after case?

Do you do two, two start weeks? Do you change? Do you have four relievers in your lineup to whatever it is? Do you, there are these, the strategical decisions you can make that will take you out of the running for ERA and WIP, you know, and it's particularly important in 15 team leagues like NFC, there is a moment and you can see it,

you can see it on the way of a wire, you can see it on other teams, you know you've discussed it on your own team, which is, all right, we go hard at K's now. Is that it? Is that all we care hard at K's now. Is that it? Is all we care about K's and wins and we will be rostering some of the worst pitchers in this league. Yeah.

I mean, K's wins and even saves. I feel like if you still want to have a chance of cashing in your league, you also have to have saves if you're going to punt ratios and that opens up some of the job share guys that might not have the ratios you want or even like the bottom tier. Eventually in August, there will be more teams that punt saves and some of the bottom tier closers just get flat out dropped. You can scoop those players up later and try to be top of that category or near top of that category. But if you end up getting buried in both ratios, it is very, very hard to be top third of the league. It can be done, but I'm finding this year the waiver wire is thin everywhere.

It feels as bad as ever. I don't know why. I don't know if it's because roster balances have changed. If people are being more aggressive, holding on to pitching on their bench or what exactly the reason is for it, or if it's all in my head. Plus injury just keeps going. Does it seem like it's harder to stream pitching right now than it has in early parts of other recent seasons?

I mean, I told you I picked up Carmen Modzinski yesterday. Yes, it's not easy. And it's only getting harder. And I, you know, the thing that's so annoying just specifically a mudzinski But also about pitching strategy is that like you know he went for and he did fine And they could have left him in and he could have gotten that win but There are increasing amounts of strategy by baseball teams that won't get you wins

These kind of four running starters. It'll get you the ratios that you've now punted if you go down Optimized ratios. I need five plus innings. I need the other four days with two earned runs and two strikeouts It's not useful. It's not helpful in any way. It didn't do anything for me. It's not getting you out of the ratios hole and it's not helping you in the counting stats. You're just drifting away out there. Yeah, good point. Yeah, if you're picking up Carmen Maladzinski,

I think you are admitting it's a tough road out there. If you're in this situation as a team, I think you have to give it a little bit longer. I think it's a little bit longer. Yeah, I'm more tuned. But I do have this conversation with JH, like every week. He was like, literally, I forget who it was, I think Bryce Elder had a good start for us, and he was like, man, if Bryce Elder didn't have

that good start, we'd be having that conversation about maxing out Ks already. Already. Yeah. It's not too early to think about it, but it's probably too early to flip that switch. It's probably too early to flip that switch. You're probably still I think you want to be a third of the way into the season. Like you need that, especially if you look at your pitchers

and they're on by low lists and they're like not someone who's just like totally broken or just somebody that's like, oh, he had bad luck or they've been squeezed or whatever it is. Like, I mean, I have plenty of rosters with Pepe on it. I think Pepe is going to be better going forward forward that the park is gonna change a little bit going forward He's been at home more than on the road. He's been away one game like the schedule itself will change you know For him, it's like I don't think that there's been a player that had 25 home starts Like I don't think it'll work that way.

So yeah, if you've got like Pepio and I forget who else, I just did a Bylo article, but if you've got some guys that you think are good Bylos, hold on a little bit and see what they do in the next couple of weeks. Yeah, the math's not mathin', but thanks a lot for that question, Luke. A lot of the questions right now in the Discord

are basically, what's wrong with blank? That's the main question we're getting right now. And maybe the way we should think about it is is something wrong with blank? You know, like it's not necessarily something's wrong. It could just be bad luck, could just be a couple of bounces, could just be poor timing, bad pitches thrown with runners on base or just a couple of things that have gone completely sideways when everything else is fine. But there's still important questions to dig into because sometimes there is something wrong. Old Ben Kenobi got into the mailbag probably on Sunday, which was May the 4th, but we're answering the question today. He was checking his fantasy team on May the 4th. My God.

Yeah, I think he was. What's going on with Dylan Cease? The K-rate is down a little bit. 25.3 percent. That's the lowest we've seen since the shortened season in 2020. Walk rate 9.7 percent right in line with career norms. Still getting swinging strikes, getting hit inside the zone a little bit more, but not an alarming sort of rate. Is this just a garden variety, bad luck sort of slow start for Dylan Cease? Or do you see something that you're actually worried about in the underlying numbers and I'll throw one more number at you before

I let you answer. BABIP on the pitching side also worth looking at right. It's one of those possible luck sort of indicators. Dylan Cease 375 BABIP so far this year, career 294 last year when everything was going really well was at 263. So it looks to me like this is more bad luck than anything else. And the worst he's ever had it in his past was 330, Bob Dylan season 2023. He had a 458 ERA and 142 whip.

I think things will improve to the point where that won't be where he ends up in the end. But he's at a 561 near a 160 whip, Dylan Ceases. So I feel like you might take that 458 going forward. But the protections are for like a 353 with all those strikeouts. The other luck number that is important for pitchers is left on base percentage. He is currently stranding 63% of his base runners.

That's 73% for his career. So there's some batted balls that have come that are some like kind of lucky bad luck batted balls that have come at the wrong time and scored runs for the opposing team. So that's the story of some of the underlying metrics. The only thing that I'm worried about sort of long term is that the change of his throwing this year is a little bit better. He used to have this curve ball that he's really gone away from, but we haven't seen necessarily a great aptitude for adding new pitches. And I do think that there's some level of, we know that there's a thing called shape

fatigue where people see a shape over and over again and they get better at hitting it, hitting it. I wonder if there's some sort of almost like pitcher fatigue where people are like, yeah, I know what Dylan Seese does. You know, I've seen it. I faced him, he does this and he does this. And he's not like coming to spring with a new pitch and a new wrinkle that at least has been enough to kind of stave this off.

So maybe he needs to just bring the curve back a little bit or if he does trust that change up, throw it more than you're throwing it right now because you know, at a 4% rate it's just, you know, what is that? A one or two a game? So I think that there are some things to worry about him long term, but short term I expect him to turn it around. And these are only concerns for like, you know, a, maybe a selling dynasty team. Like, do they hold Dylan Cease for next year or do they, you know, try to get ahead of what may be a, uh, maybe a problem that he has to overcome long term?

Yeah. I think the other part of the long-term analysis with Dylan Cease is that this is his walk year, right? He's free agent at the end of the season and he may end up in a neutral environment or a hitter friendly environment And that will change his floor a little bit as well We've seen volatility throughout his career in part because I've compared him to being like a right-handed Blake Snell He's he's willing to give he's willing to walk a guy because he thinks he can strike the next hitter out. At least that's how I think he approaches it.

He has the strikeout rates. And just like Snell, you see a higher bar on both ends for how bad the ratios can get when the timing is not ideal and how good things can get when it is. That's the range that I've always seen for Dylan Cease. So I think that picture becomes even more volatile when you take him out of Petco again, put him into other places. So keep that in mind too, if you're thinking about trading for him in the long run

or trading him away in the long run, that might be a reason to motivate you one way or the other. You know, just this year long, I think he's, I think he's one of the better buys by lows. He's a definite hold. There's no way I'm dropping somebody who's projected to be happy 3.5 ERA and 10 strike outs per night. Last Thursday we broke down Nola, Sandy Alcantara, broke down Gallon.

I like CIS more than all of those guys still. Yeah. Yeah, that's than all of those guys still. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good way to put it. I think my order would still be if I was targeting them for a trade cease first gallon Nola Sandy maybe or similar. I know Sandy had another outing last night that people were disappointed with his other matchup against the Dodgers. It's like seeing the Dodgers twice in a row suboptimal. I might go Sandy's second because I'm also trying to factor in cost of acquisition.

I think you've got people that are willing to move them now. Yeah. Some people might really want to move on from him because the total is like well enough in some ways that like the NOLA owner might be like, I'll still get wins. And like, it's fine. You know, I think it's harder to talk yourself into giving up on Aaron Nola because he is laid it all out there before as like, yeah, this is what I do. I'm a high variance ratios guy too.

And I'm on a good team. It's probably going to be fine. Last question before we go. And this one just came in on the discord earlier today. Is it time to worry about Jason Dominguez? This came from Ethan thinking about attempting to acquire him in a 14-team dynasty full keep head-to-head points league 60-man rosters 25 being fighter leaguers that is a deep deep

league before we even throw analysis of Jason Dominguez in there I just want to point out we're at a point where he's only had 211 played appearances in his big league career, scattered over parts of three seasons. And he just turned 22 in February. So based on only that, I'm not worried at all. Like there's, there's no reason to worry. And I think we've even seen as he's hit a few different levels, like just think about the arc of Jason Dominguez is prospect valuation over time. He's hit a few

bumps along the way. He was the next Mike Trout, and then he was a bust. He was a you could get him as a throw in prospect at one point. And then it became a guy you would build a trade around. And he's like, I don't know why it fluctuates so much if it's been the Expectations if it's the swing and miss in his profile But I mean a 29% career k-rate in those 211 played appearances That's fine for a guy figuring it out for the first time the 313 LBP is not so bad that they can't play him That's that's actually where I settled in. I mean a 96 96 WRC plus for how quote unquote bad he's been, that I don't think is something that the Yankees brass has like circled and been like,

oh, we really got to do something about that. You know, I think that you have a young player that could be growing and could be growing into an above average, maybe even elite player. There's still some things that speak well of him that and on that level and He's just playing to league average right now in his struggles. Yeah, I think you'd leave that guy out there The glove is a problem. I think like that's that's a question for the long run It's like what do you think about Jason Mingues defensively? Do you think he's going to be here because he has the tools, you know, but Yeah It always felt like he was miscast as a center fielder and at least they've

moved on from that but even you know fan crafts has the future 40 on the field so that does put a lot of pressure on his bat in the long run well I think I just missed that and they're playing him in center and stuff that's amazing yeah they have 40 40 for field. That's interesting. I guess they they saw the body in a different way, which is like this is a bigger body that may not have the side to side, you know, quickness that you kind of need for defense. I also just see the hard hit rates always over 50%. And, you know, I'm willing to bet on a guy who hits the ball hard and runs.

And I've talked before about how difficult it is to get steals from older players in dynasty leagues and how You know if I am going to trade for a young player That's the only thing that gave me any pause about the steer versus Cassis conversation We had the other day is that I'd be trading out of steals You know and I wouldn't be trading for a player who's gonna give me steals Yeah, I kind of want to trade who's going to give me steals. I kind of want to trade for young players that give me steals. Anyway, long story short, I would have trade for Jason Dominguez provided the cost wasn't

huge. I would love to have him, especially if I was like rebuilding, but like maybe not wanting to rebuild for like five years out. I'd want to rebuild for next year and then hope that like next year, somewhere between now and next year, he becomes even the projections, a two 50 hitter that would hit in a full season, 18 homers and steal 25 bags. That's the, that's the projection right now. Right. And sprint speeds there is a 55 grade runner, according to fan graphs too, which is nice to have that 76 percentile in sprint speed so far.

As he gets on base more, I think that's one of the areas he can add a little bit of value to help offset some of the losses in the field. I also would say long term, they don't have first base locked in. They don't have the Freddie Freeman, you know, the mega deal first baseman. They don't have Vlad Jr.

They don't have that player. Yeah, right, I mean, look, we like Ben Rice, but if they don't like what they see from Jason Dominguez in the outfield, they could probably have a winter off-season, let's make him a first baseman conversation and maybe he'd be fine at first base. Yeah, he'll need to recover a little bit on the bad end for them to want to have that conversation probably, but there's all the rest this year. And it's gonna get hot in Yankee Stadium soon. I think that his balls are gonna start leaving the field.

Yeah, so still a bat we like, still a guy you wanna trade for, a window to do it open right now, I think, in many leagues, good idea in a long-term league. And obviously not my time trailer either. With that strikeout rate, I don't normally go after guys like that. But I see enough of the rest of the package to be into it.

This is where I get into a lot of trouble. But when I look at how he's progressed in his minor league career, you'd see him get to a new level. Strikeout rate might tick up. You'd repeat at that level, see it come. We've seen fluctuations to the point where I don't know if I believe that high 20s, low 30s is the true talent strikeout rate for Dominguez.

That might just be the early career strikeout rate. He might settle in 22, 24% with a lot of hard contact and that would make him a very exciting player. So I'm in. Still want to buy with Jason Dominguez where I can. Quick note before we go, you can join our discord, submit mailbag questions using the mailbag channel. The link is in the show description. You can find Eno on Blue Sky, enocerous.beesky.social. You can find me, DVR.beesky.social. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for putting this episode together. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.