Rates & Barrels - Half of One Offseason in Three Days!

Episode Date: March 14, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss the flurry of activity since the end of the lockout including injury updates on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr., several trades involving the Yankees, Twins, Rangers and Reds, a new home for Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw's return to the Dodgers, on-air breaking news with a Matt Olson blockbuster with Atlanta, and much more! Rundown Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Wrist Surgery; Possible Surgery Ronald Acuña Jr. Targeting a May Return? Trades, Trades & More Trades Sonny Gray in Minnesota Mitch Garver in Texas Clayton Kershaw Stays with the Dodgers Carlos Rodón's Deal with the Giants; Rising ADP Chris Bassitt to the Mets Yusei Kikuchi to the Jays Breaking News! Matt Olson to Atlanta Quick Takeaways on Smaller Transactions Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Monday, March 14th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. Baseball is back. Since the last time we spoke, we actually have Major League Baseball back. There's a new CBA in place. Free agency started again over the weekend. Trades have happened. Injury information has been revealed. We're getting three and a half months worth of news condensed into about three and a half days. So we're going to try and get caught up on this pod.

And I think we've certainly got our hands full as far as getting through the entire rundown yeah yeah it was funny too because when it when it first went down everyone's like okay now here come all the signings and nothing happened the first day and we're like hmm i you know and i made a joke on twitter that was like you know nobody wants to go first and admit they were talking during the lockout when they weren't supposed to be. But I think it actually took so long that I think it's probably a little bit more likely that every front office was tasked with reading the CBA, the new CBA, and coming up with ideas of how their strategy might change.

Because I had looked at something like the option rule where now you can only option a player five times you know there were just there were a few players that really broke it like maza with the with the rays was optioned 10 times last year and louis louis head louis head uh was also uh optioned 10 times and so that made everyone you know that makes you think oh theays have to change everything. But it was really the Giants that did the most optioning.

They had the most players that they optioned five times or more. And if you think about it, that's how the Giants kind of made it work with all their old veterans. You know, they had Jason Vossler who kept coming up. They had Tyro Estrada who kept coming up. And that's what they did when Longoria had to sit down. So they had this whole thing where

they were bringing these guys up and down. Does that change what they might do, who they might sign, what their strategy is going forward? So they had to, I think, have an emergency meeting. Everybody read the CBA tonight. Tomorrow morning, we have a strategy meeting where we talk about how this might change things that we do. You know, the inner circle has to do this. And so, you know, you're still like pinging agents and being like, hey, we're interested, we're interested, but you're not going to sign anything until you kind of have at least some sort of discussion about what this new CBA means for your team. Right, and calling the owner and being like,

so what's my new salary? What's my new payroll number, if there is one? Getting on the same page with that. I mean, I think we'll talk about it as we go. There are teams doing things that don't necessarily make sense with a smaller playoff field, but with a larger playoff field, you can start to talk yourself into just trying to play the middle, hang around, getting to July and saying, oh, we're within a couple games of the postseason. Let's add now or saying, yeah, we tried. We're not quite where we want to be.

Let's move these guys for the future. And at least on the surface for the first four months of the season, you look like a team that's trying. And that helps sell some tickets and keeps interest up and all those things are factors as well. But you're right. I think there was probably an adjustment period. I think even if you were close to a deal when the lockout started, you wanted to go back around and just double check everybody because of these changing factors. Oh, are you still interested? You weren't interested before. Maybe you're interested now.

factors oh are you still interested you weren't interested before maybe you're interested now there's some speculation that nick martina has got some more offers uh that he was supposed to have signed with the padres i don't think he signed yet there was some speculation that maybe he'd gotten more offers so speaking of the padres uh i think they win the the bad news contest of the last few days fernando tatis Jr. has a wrist injury. Surgery is likely, according to Dennis Lin. He covers the Padres for the athletics, for the athletic, not for the Oakland A's. They certainly would not employ extra writers

to cover another team. To cover the Padres. No, but, you know, he's already pushing back. Tatis said that, you know, he doesn't think surgery is necessary which is kind of amazing because he has labrum problems right thought that was his shoulder my brain went the other way i thought well if he is if so if he has wrist surgery it's believed he would take three months to recover from it yeah but i think that people are like

oh just get the shoulder done too i don't know know. I think the recovery is longer for that even. Yeah. Well, I think it would cost them his whole season based on the previous timetables as described for the shoulder. So with that lingering, I do think that's sort of even if they're not talking about it, they have to at least be thinking about it internally.

Tatis is camp. Like, okay, we've got this current problem that we have to deal with. We've got this longer term problem what's our best strategy here well i think there's a there's a lot of devils in the details here because the whole thing is whether it's displaced fracture or not there's a huge difference i know this because i broke my thumb once playing basketball and i can't believe this happened at stanford with stanford health care but they didn't know if it was displaced or not because the x-rays didn't make it over from student healthcare. And so they guessed that it wasn't displaced and just put a cast on it. And then they were like, we'll know in six weeks if it was displaced or not. Well, guess what happened? In the meantime,

the bone grew out to the displaced bone. And now I got a big old thumb. Thank you, Stanford Healthcare. Anyway, the point is, with an athlete like that, they won't be like, well, we don't have the x-rays. Yeah, they're not going to do that to peace. But I think, you know, whether or not it's displaced is the big deal. Because if it's displaced, most of the time people have surgery. Because they don't want, what happens if it's displaced is then the deal. Because if it's displaced, most of the time people have surgery. Because they don't want...

What happens if it's displaced is then the bone might grow out to meet the bone. And then you have a new hand shape. You know? You don't want that. No. Ideally. No. I guess the media follow-up question is, even if surgery is avoided, we're still looking at some kind of absence for a tundish.

We're looking at elevated risk. We're looking at some kind of absence for Tatis. We're looking at elevated risk. We're looking at a lot of questions, and I just wonder where do you even start thinking about drafting him right now? We got Tout Wars weekend coming up. I know NFBC events are still running. Some of the bigger NFBC events are

a little over, a little less than two weeks away. So big decisions have to be made. We'll get a little more information probably as those times come closer but if you have a midweek draft right now if you're making that decision today is it easily outside the first round is it easy outside the first two rounds because that that three month window even if it's a month and a half right like in a league with no il spots and i know it's not a lot of leagues out there that changes things a lot. If you have IL spots,

if it's a smaller league, I can understand still wanting to take on that risk relatively early, but the deeper the league, the more difficult it is to weather that storm. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't, I saw that Rasbaugh said that he's now their 155th player.

And in fact, that works for me a little bit. There's a certain pitcher that has a large battle coming with baseball about how much he will be suspended. And I only bring him up because the question is, do I get a half season from him? It's not so much, will he be good? It's more like, do I get a half season from him?

Do I get four months from him it's not so much will he be good it's more like do i get a half season from him do i get four months from him and and i we've been trying to avoid talking about that whole situation but i just bring it up because it's very similar and he goes in the around the 10th and that's i think where you should take tatis because it's like he will be good when he's in but i will have to figure a way to nurse him to that point and maybe we get some good news and it's only, he's only out for six weeks, but you know, you have to bake all that in. Yeah. With Tatis, I mean, you could get lucky with the six week return and he could be fine and you end up getting a great bargain. So I understand the, the interest still, I think accounting for lost time is just difficult regardless of the cause just figuring out okay what am i doing in the meantime what is this

going to take in terms of a roster spot how how realistic is it to get through to that point and i would say if i were in an nfbc room right now i'm not thinking about tatis until about the fourth round and that's even still like that's kind. It's kind of like where DeGrom would fall if he fell before we knew he was throwing. And that's still probably pushing it. And I'd have to have three players I feel really good about up top. I think I'd rather be talking sixth or seventh round. And the position matters too. So I had the misfortune of drafting in barf this

weekend and i drafted someone else who's at the very top uh no i mean it's really fun it's a crazy league we do it in a bar and everyone has to have shots at like 11 a.m before we start the thing it's awful but it's great and uh and you will be with us next year. We're trading you. We're trading for you. We've acquired you from Glarf. Is that Glarf? Yeah, Glarf. I jumped out of Glarf because I moved back in August, so there's a break for me.

I'm not in the Arf universe for one year. We'll get you in Barf next year because Mattie Wood, who's in it, is going to move to Chicago, so maybe we can do a little trade there. But anyway, I said misfortune because I drafted in the first round Ronald Acuna Jr. And that is another piece of huge news that we got. He's now targeting a May return.

However, you know, there's all these different ways you can say things. Because then David O'Brien talked to him today and said, so may, and, and, uh, Acuna said, no man, like I want opening day,

but it's not up to me. So he's saying like, that's what the sort of official timetable is. But he also said he feels 95%. So, you know, maybe over the next two or three weeks, they say,

no, he looks pretty good. Like we'll, we'll give him like a two week blow or something, you know, like the difference between like Aprilil and and the season starts april 7th instead of you know march 31st so maybe they're just like no he looks pretty good that's opening day so that one is not as big a deal but let's say it was ronald acuna and fernando tatis

out three months which one of these two would you draft first? I would draft Acuna first because it's much easier to get a late outfielder that you can plug in and use without a lot of extra draft capital. And it may be somebody boring. Maybe your sixth outfielder is David Peralta, which is who I got. That's super boring. That's nowhere near what Acuna is. But I'm saying that late shortstop that you have to draft to plug in for Tatis in the meantime is going to be worse.

It's like Nico Goodrum or something. They're probably pretty comparable. I guess what I would do is I would end up pushing up my shortstop coverage and expect to use that player as a UT option later. So I would just be deeper with middle infield and UT options that can play that spot. That's how I'd get around it. I think if the timetables were equal, then I would have Tatis over Acuna. I think given that Acuna in the most likely scenario is playing at full strength before Tatis is playing at full strength, I'd prefer Acuna right now. I'm more

comfortable at the risk with Acuna, which is just an amazing flip based on where things were a few days ago, but this is a big shift in information. And you're exactly right. I mean, I think what players often say about a return is going to be on the optimistic side, and they have a say, but they don't have a I think what players often say about a return is going to be on the optimistic side.

They have a say, but they don't have a final say or definitive say in how they're going to come back. Then I think we also have to have questions about both of these players. When they come back, is Acuna going to get that preventative maintenance for the first few weeks? I could see that being a little more necessary initially with Tatis and the type of injury he's coming back from. That would be probably less likely to occur so some pros and cons there as you think about those different injuries but for me it's Acuna over Tatis given where they're at in their respective recoveries from their injuries there's also something to think about real quick I know it's fantasy it's kind of boring to talk about it but like steals their effect on their steals and you would think that hand injury leg injury it's going to be a kunya that's going to steal less going forward

however after the shoulder injury last year i think tatis stole like two bases in the last two months or something of the season and you know if he has a wrist fracture like does he want to be sliding into bases uh and stealing bases that way so it may be a wash and maybe both of them are at risk for stealing fewer bases next year this year yeah i think that's that's a really good point i think they both could definitely lose something there let's get to some of the trades that occurred over the weekend the yankees the twins the rangers the reds all involved in some deals. There was a Mets deal as well with the A's, Chris Bassett's on the move. But let's just kind of take a look at the net result of the trades made by the Yankees, Twins, Rangers and Reds.

The Yankees now have Josh Donaldson and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, along with a new backup catcher, Ben Rortwit. Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela are twins. Sonny Gray is a twin. That came, of course, in the deal with the Reds. Mitch Garver is a Ranger. And Chase Petty, I believe he was a 2021 first-rounder for the Twins, is now in the Reds organization. So

let's start with the Yankees side of this. New left side of the infield for them. Defensively, Kiner Falefa, very good. Donaldson, we've talked about him on the third base preview. Still hitting the ball very hard. Still drawing walks. Carries injury risk.

This is a team that seems to embrace old injury risk about as much as any good team in the league does. So do you feel like the Yankees are better off after the moves they've made so far? Yeah, that was a big question. I joked the Yankees seem to need a catching upgrade. I hear Gary Sanchez is available. So it was kind of weird because I think that Rortved's minor league OPS starts with a six, and that does not portend great success in the major leagues with the stick. It's a really minus stick situation at catcher,

but maybe they will go with it. Maybe they're just like, hey, this is going to be plus glove, plus game calling and framing, and we're just going to go with a zero there. Isaiah Canafalefa is also the most un-Yankee hitter I can think of. He's a guy who makes a ton of contact, has pretty good plate discipline, but does not hit the ball hard. I think one year he had 1% bail rate.

So it's very different. However, I did think about this a little bit when I was watching the Astros get shut out in a game against the Braves, where the Astros are all very similar. They're all highball hitters. you know, for the most part, they're high ball hitters. And so if the pitcher comes in and is able to hit his spots high in the zone, he can shut down the Astros basically, low in the zone. He can shut down the Astros basically. So I wonder if Isaiah Canofalefa for the Yankees is like, okay,

we got one guy who's a little different. You know, Donaldson fits right in. You know, high ball hitter, slugger, barreler, max EV, you know, often hurt, as you point out. Donaldson is a total Yankee. But Isaac Kovalev is not. And either he turns into depth after they sign Correa, a story,

which still works, because he is a super utility guy, you know that that might be the plan long term or he's just like yeah he's our shortstop and we got a bunch of young shortstops coming up who is it they've got volpe anthony volpe yeah oswald parraza they got two but volpe's the guy that yeah parraza i think yeah the ceiling is the ceiling's not amazing on paraza. I think Peraza might be a backup. But in any case, yeah, they were like, maybe it was just a stopgap, and hey, maybe it'll work out for us. Maybe this guy will just keep getting on base with singles,

and all their other guys will hit the homers and doubles. So I don't know what it's going to look like for them going forward. I feel like there's another move. In fact, for the Twins, because there's all the back and forth. The reading between the lines for me is the $50 million that was owed to Josh Donaldson

is now off the books. I do kind of assume they might, and the big rumor is Trevor Story. Because, who is their shortstop right now it's moving polanco back over after they said they weren't going to move polanco over and blah blah blah right so you'd be able to play luis orai is probably a lot in this scenario or you could play jose miranda a lot at third base and then play Urshela at short and keep Palanco at second. Miranda's stock is up no matter what.

He's a, he's a one step closer. Right. Because the, I think the best place to put him is probably third base. And now you're not paying a high price player to take that spot in front of him. So I think that bodes really well.

I think the, the question with the twins, the entire winter was how on earth are they going to have enough pitching to get through a season to possibly hang around in the AL Central and have a bounce back year? Sonny Gray was a big addition for them. And I think the thing that I think brings the floor up a lot is that you go from Great American Ballpark for a home park, which boosted homers more than any park in the league over the last three years, to target field, which actually is below average for homers. I think the park factor was 90 on the baseball savant three-year rolling average, so it's a big difference. It cuts homers by 10%, the park he was in increases them by 30%. Sonny Gray doesn't typically have a home run problem anyway. He did have one in 2021. I see a guy that comes in with a mid to high threes era and a

120s whip pretty easily and there's room for him to be a bit better than that so the projections were previously north of four for the era and i think in the 130 range for the whip i would expect the projections to move i would expect the adp to move as well this seems like a great landing spot for gray and a necessary addition for the twins yeah i also i think that um he could he has the potential to pop in a in a given season remember maeda like came over and and you know had that one great season i i could see sunny having a one great season type season with them um somebody pointed out that his velo was down in the last couple months of the season last year he's usually

over 93 and i think it was 92.8 first of all that's not the biggest velo decrease i've ever seen it's not like oh he's injured it's more like okay it's a long season it was a long season after a short season you know maybe he just didn't have all those bullets ready right um and then the other thing is uh his stuff plus increased and during that time or at least stay the same he still had a 119 stuff plus his sinker is actually a good pitch it's not like a oh his curveball has a 130 stuff plus and that's what makes everything look better no his sinker has a 119 stuff plus his curveball is like a 110 and so he has a really really good two pitch combo the other stuff you know the cutter the

slider some of it comes and goes but that is a really really good place to start someone who can spin the ball who has a really good breaking ball and a good fastball even at 92 or whatever so i i think he's a really good pitcher i think he's undervalued in drafts and i think this does actually increase his value especially since there's an nldh so you know that's no longer a part of the conversation i imagine we're going to see him going in the pick 100 to 120 range where he's a late sp2 consistent sp3 type if he goes a little higher than that i'd still probably be interested but i don't think you'll have to reach much higher than that pick 100 range to get Sonny Gray. I wait on pitching, so he'll show up on some of my teams because if you wait on pitching, then you kind of sometimes want to pick high on second and third to kind of make up for

the fact that you waited on your first one a little bit. I know we still have a catcher preview to get to probably later this week. It's going to have to get done later this week, but two catchers involved in these deals, Mitch Garver out, he goes to Texas, Gary Sanchez in. I think the stories about Gary Sanchez's defense are well documented, but I wonder how much just getting out of the cloud of negativity that surrounds him in New York actually helps him, right? I mean, yeah, it's not necessarily as

good of a lineup for a supporting cast. And from a park perspective, it's not as good of a hitter friendly park. But I just wonder if pressing reset and being in a new place might actually be a very good thing for him. There's an opportunity for him to DH in Minnesota. We're all sort of assuming that he'll move on, but I think he might, maybe he'll DH slash catch, right? I mean, that's a fairly effective way to use him where, you know, you're hiding him on defense a little bit, you know, and you've got a place to use his bat, which can be tremendous and maybe will be more tremendous when he's not, you know, being stressed about his catching defense. So some people assume

that Gary Sanchez is on the move, but I think it wouldn't be crazy to see him stay and DH and back up Jeffers at the plate. No, I could see them using Sanchez much like they use Garver and just playing Jeffers more than we thought Jeffers was going to play. I think that would be a totally logical way to go. And I think there are a lot of moving parts

in this lineup right now. Alex Kirilov, if he's the primary first baseman in order to get Larnach in the outfield with Buxton and Kepler, then Miguel Sano has the DH a lot. But if Larnach is not playing every day and Kirilov's in the outfield, then Sano can play first base

and you have that flexibility. Yeah, roster flexibility. In a weird way. It's not necessarily... You think of roster flexibility as a guy who can play short and second and third, you know,

but this, and they have that guy in Arise, I guess, but then they also have these like corner guys that can do different things. Like you're, you have two DHs

and one can play first and one can catch. Yeah. It's okay to have that. You just get just enough out of them, right? Yeah, just enough to get by.

The other interesting thing with the twins that I think I just want to put out there, we don't have to answer the question today, is I wonder where Royce Lewis plays, right? If you add Trevor Story and it happens to be a multi-year deal, what does that mean for Lewis? What is his primary defensive position? He's coming off of a torn ACL, so I think their expectations for him in early 2022 are already down.

But if they were to go out and make that big addition. Yeah, what's the long-term? What does that mean for him? What does that mean for Austin Martin, who they acquired at the trade deadline last year from Toronto? We've talked about Miranda being a guy. Maybe there's one too many young infield options. I know Martin has already played the outfield. Lewis, I think, has dabbled there in the fall league as well, but maybe there's another trade coming for the Twins, I guess,

is the one possible thing. Mitch Garver in Texas, I think it's a very slight downgrade in parks. It barely even registers when you look at the differences in homers at target field. It's kind of hard to know in one year or two. Most of your park factors are better after three years. Lineup should be at least as good as what Minnesota had last year. I don't know if it's a big change for Mitch Garver's value. It does hurt Jonah Heim.

If you thought Jonah Heim was going to play a ton, it's going to be more of a share probably tilting in Garver's favor. Yeah, I would say Garver's the primary catcher. I think it was necessary because whenever you built a Rangers lineup, you were like, wow, it's really good when you start with Simeon Seager. up uh you were like wow it's it's really good uh when you start with Simeon Seager so now I think with Lowe and Garver you've got now you've got four good hitters uh that that I could I can believe in I don't believe in Adonis Kassi I don't really believe in Leotis Tavares who else is out there cole calhoun could could be like an okay six hitter

you know i think that there could be a little bit of resurgence there and uh now there is an opportunity for something to happen in the infield another move or andy abanis might be the andy abanis is a uh a favorite of this podcast he seems to up a lot. I would say he's right now in the front running, but they keep surprising us with more and more moves. I got to think there's some kind of move. Josh Young is going to miss a lot of time. He had an injury again that

will cost him significant playing time in 2022. You don't want to go out and I don't expect them to go get Chris Bryant or something along those lines because that's another massive addition for a team that's already made a few. But maybe they can find some kind of short-term solution. Maybe they can find a team. Convince Kyle Seeger to come out of retirement, play next to his brother.

I don't think it's actually the craziest thing I've ever heard. You know, it's not that crazy. Like, what would be the one place that, like, somebody might be like, yeah, I'll come out of retirement. Yeah, give me one year and $6 million, and I'll play next to my brother. Yeah, why not? I could see that maybe happening. I wonder if they could work out a deal with the Reds

and take Moustakis back. Clearly, the Reds want to dump payroll right now. And even if there's a DH spot, it's still the opportunity to do something else. That way, you're not blocking him long-term. But I do think Moustakas still has two years left so I think you're right the Seager scenario a one-year stopgap someone they can easily move aside once Young is ready I think is probably the most likely outcome and maybe they can keep it afloat with Ibanez and Yanni Hernandez in the short term yeah because if you're talking about a free agent third baseman

that hasn't signed that is not Chris Bryant, the other name that you just like, the other two names I guess you could bring up are Jonathan Villar and Brad Miller, but Brad Miller is more of a DH. Donovan Solano maybe. Villar is a good stopgap though. If you can't convince Kyle Seeger

to come play with his younger brother, I think VR is at least a two to three month placeholder that you can live with and keep him around as a nice veteran bench option that plays all over. That could be a good fit. I think it would give us another source of some speed in the later

rounds of drafts. Are you more interested in Donaldson, by the way, going to the Yankees? His ADP was already pretty low just because of the age and health risk but i assume there's at least some kind of bump coming with the park factor change there yeah i mean the one thing that it does really kind of augment maybe even the load management that'll happen um you know that that is a team like i actually kind of believe that there could be a short stop move in this and that kind of for left is meant to be the the utility guy now the more i talk about it i'm like oh that would make a lot more sense for these yankees you know let's have eight amazing you know lineup slots and then maybe we can just pass on catcher or whatever but

um the uh the way that the yankees will work is that Donaldson will sit. But when he's in, he's playing in a much better part. I just think that's sort of baked in already. That risk is already in. I could see him jumping up a couple of rounds just because people are more excited about anybody hitting in that Yankees lineup in that stadium than they would be with the same sort of role that Donaldson had in Minnesota. Hope he's vaccinated. There's an interesting question now happening with players going to Toronto. If you're not vaccinated, you cannot go to Toronto. And so should we be docking Xander Bogart's, you know, 10 spots if he's not vaccinated? Like who's, you know, and is it,

10 spots if he's not vaccinated. And is it appropriate for us to ask? Is it appropriate for us to know and talk about in this way? Also kind of gross and weird, but this is what we do. We play, and it would be useful to know if Xander Bogart's going to lose 10 games next year. If Chris Sale is going to lose two or three starts. Or if if they're gonna just try to be creative and work around those things that i never thought i would have to even possibly wrestle with uh in fantasy baseball if you told me 10 years ago and someday you're going to wonder about the vaccination status of several players because

trips to toronto are not going to be guaranteed based on rules like, oh, okay, didn't see that one coming. Let's get to some other moves here. Clayton Kershaw went back to the Dodgers one year 17 million. He says he's fully recovered from the forearm injury that shut him down at the end of last season. Also behind

also behind scheduled to face live hitters Monday in his first spring training workout. That probably happened already. We're talking at almost 11 o'clock Pacific right now. Those guys are on their way to the golf course in like half an hour. So we'll see if we get an update on that before we sign off. But the Kershaw situation, I mean, goes back to a familiar place,

gets money that's not quite the qualifying offer. Right. It's not like if he was fully healthy, you'd give him like $20, $30 million on a one-year deal. But there's also some similar arguments you could make about $17 million here that you could make with the Justin Verlander contract with the Astros. I mean, $17 is still less than $25.

Nice analysis. But there's not a vesting option that we know of in here either. So it's it's different. It's different. And it's a team that doesn't worry about money is at least worries less about payroll and money than anybody else. else so i could see kershaw being delayed to start the season delayed slightly getting a brief stint on the il probably needing an il stint or two even if they're reasonably short in season and maybe being that 130 to 140 inning guy again like that's probably i thought is that kind of like a i don't know if it's the best case scenario but is that the the fair, most likely scenario for Kershaw at this point? Because looking at the last couple of seasons, he was 121 and two-thirds last year, 58 and a third in 2020, short in season. 178, 161, 175 in 19, 18, and 17,

kind of working backwards. So am I underselling him if I am only expecting 130 or 140, or do you just think that's a reasonable place to set it based on the nature of the injury? 125 is the number that jumped into my head. I'm not giving him more than 125 until I see him throw

three innings and he looks great. There's also a declining Velo graph that you can put along that. He has jumped back up in different times, but generally he's losing Velo. As he loses that Velo, the separation on his slider and his fastball is disappearing. I don't know.

We haven't seen it yet, but there's some performance risk alongside the injury risk. It's there. The ratios, I think, reflect that. The projections pretty much all have him for an ERA and WIP that are higher than anything we've seen from him since the very beginning of his career. Look how awesome that is, dude. Before last year, his high in ERA since his rookie season was 303. God, so good. It brings us to a new sort of risk-reward question with Kershaw.

I think even before knowing where he was going to pitch, assuming it was either Texas or LA, which I think was a reasonably fair assumption all along, I felt he was worth the risk where he was going. It took him in the wait forever for pitching build. How high is he going to go, and how high are you willing to draft him, though? If you're expecting 125, and maybe not the ratios we're accustomed to,

knowing that you're going to have to probably hold him on the bench when he's hurt in a lot of leagues, at what price point are you willing to deal with that risk and that profile? Maybe in like the fifth or sixth. Does that take me out of the running for him already? Fifth or sixth? Yeah. Is that is that super i think that's early i don't think i don't think you have to go that early for him i mean if you're saying pick 75 to pick 90 i'd be surprised if kershaw's going in that range well see the thing is i'm just i'm just i'm sideways here because if if i have il slots then yeah man i'm going I'm taking him there. But in NFBC

like weekly leagues where you have seven bench slots and you have no IL slots man, it's just such a drag to have a guy there. The earliest he's gone in any draft in the last week is pick 111. I mean again, there's only been a couple of drafts since the news broke.

I was talking like 90 or 100. Yeah, so I don't think, I mean, even like Sonny Gray versus Kershaw. I was talking like 90 or 100, right? Yeah. So I don't think, I mean, even like Sonny Gray versus Kershaw, I'd rather have Sonny Gray for this season because I think there's a chance at maximum innings from Sonny Gray in a really good spot. Both are a possibility. Actually, both would work pretty well, I think, in a roster situation where you're kind of banking on a lot of innings

from your first two or three starters and then using Kershaw as a bit of a hopeful ratios correction on a little bit of risk that you might have had with that second or third pitcher. Yeah. I mean, he's not on my do not draft list. And I know that there are certain players that are just like once the health risk gets to a certain point, they're on a do not draft list. But I think there still should be prices where these players make sense again yeah and i'm gonna look at some other names here for a moment let's just say oh i mean tyler malley is going at 133 is that gallon 135 i think kershaw

belongs in that group i mean nathan evaldi i take him ahead of all those guys yeah so i think he's at least gonna land in that 125 range but it wouldndi. I'd take him ahead of all those guys. Yeah, so I think he's at least going to land in that 125 range, but it wouldn't surprise me if he joined Gray and jumped up just a little bit higher in the front part of the 100 to 125 range. Especially every time we get good news through spring training, he's going to go up a little bit.

Similar problem, but with I think maybe a more stable floor. Carlos Rodon got a deal from the Giants. Two for 44 ended up being the contract. There is an opt-out after the first year baked in as well. And I thought the jump we were going to see from him, because the projections like him,

I know he pops in the pitching model as well. I thought we were going to see a leap that's going to send him up to the Gossman, Freed, Logan Webb, Joe Musgrove cluster in ADP. It's around pick 75. I think what's going to happen is people are going to say the Giants are smart and they wouldn't have even put two years on the table if they were overwhelmingly concerned about injuries. They can make sure they don't overwork him, and it's a pitcher-friendly environment, so park factors are still favorable. It's another

good team. I think all the little seeds of doubt are going to be kind of swept away because of where he went, and we're going to see a draft market that now treats him the way that projections and models have been treating Carlos Rodon the entire time.

Yeah. You know, there's a few worries like the declining velo going into an injury. That's one worry. Then he comes back from it and hits a hundred in his playoff start. So you feel like, you know, maybe he was good,

but then also the playoff start was like, what was it? Three and a half, four innings or something and super adrenaline. So're kind of like what like what what what would have sitting sitting velocity been if that was like a mid-september random random game you know so there are there are definitely some some concerns and the two-year deal does not actually say that they thought it looked great the two-year deal is still like you know they paid the same as they would have paid for gossman but they paid two years instead of five years to reflect the risk so

you know there's there's still something there i did hear that the medicals were better than expected so who knows what that means i i can't even i don't know did a doctor say that what what were they expecting to find? They expected to see spaghetti. Yeah. Jeez. But, you know, I think the things that made me nervous are still there and are not going away and are actually not really that ameliorated by this deal. I still think he's a huge injury risk.

I have him in some places where I had no other choices and I got backed into a corner, but we talked about it on the show. I was very nervous about that build, whatever team that was that had Rodon as my SB2. Yikes. Didn't I go

sail Rodon or something in one day? It's a lot of risk it's um it's it's different though taking that shot in the range where kershaw is about to go that's where rodan was versus taking him up in that which is right yeah i think i'm not i think i'm out now it's like this weird thing where like everyone's like oh this is great news i'm in and i'm like nothing that nothing about this is any different the yes the value was there previously and now because of the information it's gone it's probably maybe the opposite now where he goes a little too like a little too high up and risk reward doesn't work out anymore so i'm glad he landed there it makes me feel better about the people that have drafted him so far. I'm not in at the elevated price.

I think it's very easy to talk myself out of him because I see guys that have a lot less injury risk, known injury risk in that same range with skills that I like just about as much as I like Rodan, but good for him for a guy that was non-tendered last off season and was pitching on a one year, $3 million deal to get a two-year deal over $20 million per, and hopefully he pitches well, he opts out, and he gets more next winter. That'd be a great scenario. It's just very hard to bank on that, given what we've seen. Chris Bassett is a Met now.

The trade was Bassett to the Mets date jt gin and adam aller aller i think is just kind of a minor league starter that could chew up some innings for the a's clearly important for them gin is the better prospect of the two or gin rather jt gin i believe that's a hard name to like to say because of the the j jt gin. Ginn. J.T. Jif. That's what we're dealing with here. So he was a second rounder back in 2020. Pretty good numbers in the lower levels of the minor league. Kind of old for the level, though, too, last year.

So I think the AA test is going to tell us a lot about what we can expect for him. But Bassett going to the Mets goes from one pitcher-friendly environment to another, and now he's got a better team around him. So any concerns here at all for Bassett, and how much do you think his price might actually tick up? No concerns. This is actually, I think, the best situation that he could have had, right? This is about the best place he could have been traded to.

He wasn't going to be traded to Florida. This is a pitcher's park, and that's what he's used to pitching in. The DH is in both leagues, so this is about the best thing that could have happened to him. I also have a fair amount of respect for the pitching coach there, and I wonder if Bassett has a few more strikeouts he can unlock because our stuff system says that his curveball which he threw 6.5 percent of the time last year was his best pitch by stuff so I would love to see what happens if he throws that 20 percent of the time he thinks that batters will sit on it but I don't think any batter wants to sit on a 70 mile

an hour pitch doesn't seem like a good idea because if it's not that what are you gonna do if it's not that you just got blown up so i i i would love to see if he throws more of those maybe gets a few more strikeouts but he's got a good cutter for run suppression he's been running low babbitts for four straight years now he's's projected for low Babibs. So, I mean, the projections all say high 3ZRA. I could actually see him bettering that a little bit and maybe even adding more strikeouts than they suspect with a new pitching coach.

A lot of times, a guy like this is rife for a new pitching coach. You're like, here's a guy who has, he's demonstrated that he can throw four or five pitches but you know he doesn't throw a couple of them very much so you know what is the new pitcher what's the new pitching coach gonna say anyway intriguing to me i think i would tick him up you know if we're talking about rankings maybe one or two or three spots yeah i think what it comes down to is i will draft him where he's been going if he stays there.

If he jumps up a couple of rounds, I'm not as interested because not that much has changed. Just the supporting circumstances are better. Maybe some more wins, yeah. Yeah, that's about the only major change that I'm expecting. But yeah, it would be nice to see him

throw that curveball more given how good that pitch was last season. Yusei Kikuchi goes to Toronto. They kind of just replaced Steven Matz with Kikuchi. I think one year less on the deal if you're looking at the multi-year commitment. Kikuchi throws pretty hard, had the cutter working, flashed some really interesting stuff in spring training.

I think that was just last year in spring training, if I'm not mistaken. What do you make of Yusei Kikuchi joining up with Pete Walker and that pitching development crew in Toronto? Despite all the things that we think we know maybe about Kikuchi, his command plus was terrible, right? His location plus last year was 99. And there was some idea when he's coming over that he might be a little bit soft tossing.

Well, he started throwing hard in Seattle, and his stuff plus last year was 102. So here's a guy I think who can be a league average guy. That is not the same as saying league average fantasy guy because, you know, already that's a higher threshold. And then it also does not consider his park factor, which I think is hitter-friendly. There is some question because Toronto has been through a lot

in terms of where they played. But Roger Sender does not necessarily augment all runs a ton, but it does augment homers. So I don't think he's necessarily a great play. I have him at 86, and I have Steven Mass at 87. Mass is in a much better park, but has below average stuff. So, you know, I think they end up in a very similar situation. That's kind of funny that I have him right next to each other.

Yeah, I mean, I think having a great defense behind him and being in a pitcher-friendly environment goes a long way towards giving Matz a chance here. If you put them in the exact same situation, I would have a pretty strong preference for Kikuchi. I think it's interesting that he struggled with hard contact last year. 47% hard hit rate. It was at 11% barrel rate. So with the uptick in velocity, more hard contact last year, 47% hard hit rate. It was at 11% barrel rate.

So with the uptick in velocity, more hard contact, I wonder with added velo if he was missing his spots more often and getting punished for it. I mean, that'd be the first hypothesis I have, but I would say compared to some of the alternative places he could have gone, this is a decent landing spot for Kikuchi, not bumping him up, but not avoiding him where he goes. If he's still sitting out there in the 275-300 range, I am very happy going ahead

and just kind of adding him as a filler to my rotation in that range. How about this one? Nelson Cruz goes to the Nats. We've talked about this offense being terrible, and Nelson Cruz helps. It just kind of goes back to what I was saying at the very beginning of the show. The Nats are one of those teams where I can't quite figure out what they make of themselves if they're just trying to do enough to be credible and figuring out the rest later, where if the top part of the offense stays healthy and maybe they get a bounce back from Robles or they get a breakthrough over a full season from Lane Thomas or Kiebert Ruiz is as good as we all thought he could be as a prospect

and he ends up being an above average hitter in the lineup maybe they find a way to score more runs than we expect I think they're now falling into the the twins trap of and how exactly are they going to prevent runs because the pitching staff is probably even the bigger concern when you look at how this team is built right now. There's some major holes on this team. It's kind of crazy. I mean, you can put the rose-colored glasses on and be like, well, any team with Soto has a chance.

And Soto, Bell, Ruiz, Cruz is a middle of the lineup, right? Dave Martinez went on record saying that he hopes that Victor Robles takes the job in center. I think that, you know, if he does, and it's sort of Robles and Thomas, Lane Thomas are like the bottom of your lineup, that's okay. But then you still have Carter Keboom, Alcides Escobar, and Cesar Hernandez around the infield, which I think is three empty spots.

You know, Cesar is maybe league average, but I would say three empty spots. You go to the rotation, like, well, okay, Strasburg's going to be healthy and maybe a little bounce back from Corbin, a step forward from Gray. Anibal Sanchez is their fourth pitcher. Yeah, they stacked up some pitchers over the weekend. They added Anibal Sanchez and Aaron

Sanchez, both. Dos Sanchez para ti. And then they got Cade Cavalli coming, but I think I would say that there's major holes in the back of that. And then you look at the bullpen and Dave Martinez said he hopes

that Tanner Rainey can close this year or be a co-closer at least. And so maybe Rainey and Finnegan are all right, and Sasek rings the funk, and we've liked Austin both. But I would say that bullpen isn't deep either. So I guess the only thing the Nationals can do is just get extremely lucky on health and maybe a couple of young breakouts from somebody. Right. I think that would be huge for them.

I think Cruz going there puts Yadiel Hernandez's thin hopes of playing a lot into a pretty bad place. It would take more time in left field at the expense of Lane Thomas, I think, for that to happen. Oh, my God. Do we have breaking news god do we have breaking news do we have breaking news you got to do the breaking news breaking news breaking news

he's he's looking at his phone on camera again why would he do that well he would do that because 90 ready for tv 90 this the 10% where we're not. Matt Olson. Matt Olson. If Twitter or phone would work better, like I'd be able to tell you, I just want to know for sure before I say it. Matt Olson to the Braves. Oh, I guess that means Freddie Freeman's not going back to Atlanta.

Yeah! Wow. Or back to Atlanta. Yeah! Wow. Or Freeman to DH. I don't think that's the move. I don't think that's the move. Wow. They said no thank you to their franchise first baseman and traded for Matty Olsen.

One thing that's kind of fun about Matt Olsen is he's from Atlanta. So that is a homecoming situation for him. It also replaces currently on the death chart Orlando Arcia. So you could call it a position of need for them. Well, I wonder what's going back to them. I would consider young pitching. So something along the lines of Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, Kyle Wright, maybe Tukey Toussaint. You know, something that the A's look, that they see that they like in that pitching staff.

And then it's got to be a bat. So Pache or Waters. I mean, they've got to send something decent, right? Because Olsen is under team control and he's not too expensive and he's really good. Yeah. I mean, we can speculate for a few moments or we can probably just wait, talk about the other things and come back and see, oh, this is what they got. I think that's going to be the route that we choose. But I think Atlanta does have some major league ready players that they don't need between Pesce, Waters. Maybe they can get Spencer Strider.

I think that would make sense if you're Oakland. I have to think they're getting some big league players back here since they didn't in the Bassett return. But you mentioned a long time ago you didn't think the return for Bassett would be nearly as good as it was going to be for Frankie Montas if they moved him. Again, it's like a sink or slider guy that may be all right in Oakland, but the strikeout rates are low. Yeah. I don't think that was a great return. Kind of an Oakland-y profile, though, where, oh, he's like a decent three. Oh, he's old for his level?

No way. Yeah. So we'll see. We'll see if we get a return for Matt Olsen. There's so much to get to news-wise still. I think there's a chance. Keep moving. So we'll keep an eye out for that.

Some bullpen moves. We'll get back to Olsen momentarily. Brad Hand to the Phillies. Is this trouble for the Corey Knable crowd? Because they also added Drew's Familia to the mix as well. Yeah, I don't think it is because he has been falling off. I wanted to say he's been losing velo, but it was 93 last year. So he had a little

bit of a one-year Velo bump, but he just hasn't been getting the swing strikes that he used to. It's not as effective a package as it used to be, and at 93 with the stuff numbers he had last year, I would not anoint him to the closer. I would, in fact, I think put him behind Uris Familia so that this actually is a good sign for people who drafted Corey Knievel I think Corey Knievel is a lot safer today actually because of the signing does that make sense because they didn't bring yeah well they didn't they didn't bring in Kimbrell yet right yeah right they didn't do anything bigger they got a six and also I think the contract six million dollar lefty like that's not he could, Mark Melanson signed for something like that, and he closed for the Padres all year.

But to me, that says he's not necessarily a closer. It's not multi-year. It's not like what Will Smith got, right? Will Smith got, like, $10 million a year for three years or something. Yeah, he got a long-term deal. This is like – maybe he closes if Knievel falls apart and 93 miles an hour finds his swing strikes again. But I would say he's third.

I would say Familia, it goes Knable, Familia, Hand in that bullpen. Yeah, that's the way I expect it to be stacked up as well. So maybe a slight concern, but I think you still want Knable if you're taking some shots in Philly. Ian Kennedy goes to the Diamondbacks. I'm just assuming he's part of the bridge to Mark Melanson. Kennedy goes to the Diamondbacks. I'm just assuming he's part of the bridge to Mark Melanson. I also don't have any real reason for assuming one over the other,

other than Melanson was also very effective as a closer last year. But Kennedy was pretty good. So a strange move, to say the least, but one that I think gives them a little more depth in their bullpen. And they certainly need it if they're going to surprise anybody. Breaking news. Do we have the return? this is what it felt like. Do we have the return? This is what it felt like. I drafted Saturday,

you know, and in the middle of the draft, it was just like, what? What happened? What? Oh, here we go. This is the return. It's a good return. Where is it? You got it? Yeah, Jeff Passon has it. It's not Oakland will receive Christian Pache, Shea Langoliers, Ryan Cusick, and Joey Estes. So, two pitchers, a catcher, and a center fielder. And Pache, look, Pache for all of his faults is a gold glove caliber center fielder. He plays. He plays a lot. Oakland can play him a lot for the next several years and just see what happens with the bat.

and just see what happens with the bat. Langoliers is an impact hitter behind the plate. I'm really curious to know what this means for Sean Murphy. Is Sean Murphy too expensive for the A's too? Are they going to say, see you later to him and flip him to a team that needs a catcher? Yeah, there's a handful of teams that need a catcher, and Sean Murphy's a great defender with some potential in his bat.

If Oakland wants to run a $12 million payroll this year, actually that might not be the minimum anymore, an $18 million payroll this year, they clearly are going ahead with the plan to tear it all down, which is remarkable. But I actually think this is a pretty good return for Matt Olsen

given that we're talking about an impact first base, but not a guy that they had under control for five more years or anything like that. I was looking for something else that was happening. This is brutal, dude. This is like trying to do a podcast on the deadline. I'm looking for this. Seiyazuki to the padres did that happen

they i mean talk about things that because the tatis injury you definitely need a boost to your offense they needed him even with a healthy tatis and oh the other question with padre the padre situation cj abrams if he's healthy how quickly could we see him that's another question for another day i I guess. But I love that the screen says bullpen shuffle. We're trying to talk about trade returns, and we're trying to figure out where, say, Suzuki's going to go. He worked out for the Padres over the weekend, too.

I don't know if he's worked out for other teams yet. I'm seeing some people, but it's not being reported by people I'm recognized. So I don't know. We'll come back to that one later, but i said 5 and 70 for i think that that means uh that's all the money they have under the cap so either it's their last move or the next move is eric hosmer is out of town with a prospect attached to him yikes i mean it could happen it definitely could happen i just don't i don't think there's another team out there that wants to do it i don't think there's another team out there they'll take him back 60 million dollars for a guy who's been basically zero war for three years that's got

to be an amazing prospect coming back if you're going to take that money on robert hassell is the name or camposano maybe the catcher of it anyway uh freeman patting pache has the arrow up right uh especially the loriano being out for 28 days to start the season i think that uh the easiest thing to do is is uh just throw pache in there on opening day and say we made this trade you know for this guy for this young guy we want to put him out there and let him run put loriano in a corner probably when he comes back because he was already anyway he was already not-average center fielder defensively. Big arm. Probably could throw him over and right.

So I think you could definitely play Laureano and right and be happy with it, especially with Pache in center. Pache last year had a league-average WRC plus at AAA. It was his second time at the level. He finished 2019 there, but he's 22 last year. So this is a nice player to go get if you're in the A's situation. Do you put him in the minors and say he needs more time? I don't know.

No, I don't think you give him more time there because you gave him 353 and he's got almost a full season at AAA. I would say if he gets more time there, it's because he flops in the big leagues, not because you feel compelled to do it.

His clock has started. You kind of just want to see what you got. I mean, maybe we'll end up being wrong, but I think Pache probably creeps into the fifth outfielder or first outfielder off the bench conversation in 15-team mixed leagues because there is power. There is speed. The problem with the speed

is that he's been very inefficient as a base dealer in the upper levels of the minor leagues 9 for 16 at triple a last year 8 for 19 at double a back in 2019 that's definitely a problem it's got to be it's got to be a case though on a bad team where you can still get green lights and try to figure it out but i think they have to figure some other things out before they can even give him green lights. He might actually become more efficient at the major league level because, and I wrote a piece about this with Baggerly, the teams are becoming much more efficient about when they take their opportunities.

And they've got it all really scienced up where they're just like, oh, this is the number. This is how fast this pitcher is to the plate. This is how fast my hitter is to second. We know these numbers for sure so you know these are the pitchers you can steal against so maybe you know we don't get the 40 and 50 steal things that we always kind of dreamt upon for pache but maybe we get he's more 10 for 14 you know and then that's better value for his team but he does have the

speed to to be interested in it for now we'll leave the the blockbuster sending matt olsen to atlanta alone i think pache is the guy that has the most immediate value we'll talk about the prospects on a future show what's going on all right let's do some quick hitters what's next yeah rapid fire alex colomay is a rocky now uh maybe some stability in role but of all the places he could have gone a plus for job opportunity and d minus for everything what happens to him in that ballpark yeah uh estevez i think was the incumbent and i think he call make it beat him out pretty easily uh especially since he's on a fixed contract number and it doesn't affect his arbitration values. The cutter is good for ball in place

suppression, so it might actually be a decent fit for his skill set even. If he's your third source of saves and you get him outside the top 250 overall, I think it's okay. I think you can, especially if you

didn't, if 2021 never happened for Columet, you'd look at him and you'd probably be pretty optimistic about his chances of holding on to the job. I think it's one bad year sort of clouding our judgment about what he had done over the better part of like a half decade. The White Sox added Josh Harrison and Joe Kelly. I believe I saw a subsequent note saying Kelly might not be ready for the start of the season, but one more reliever added to that group on the south side of Chicago, and Craig Kimbrell, at least as of this moment, still a member of the White Sox, so easily I think maybe the league's deepest

and most expensive bullpen right now. Interesting that the kind of teams that might be trading for Craig Kimbrell are starting to dry up a little bit. I mean, I kind of don't think the Phillies are going to put more investment in that bullpen, another $16 million after they went and spent on Knable and Hand and kind of spread it around. You know, like the Mets have all the money, it seems,

but their bullpen's pretty good. Are they really going to add Kimball to that bullpen? That'd be kind of nutty. Who the Red Sox, I think, are a possibility if they believe they have the money. bullpen's pretty good. Are they really going to add Kimbrell to that bullpen? That'd be kind of nutty. Who, who, who the Red Sox, I think are a possibility if they believe they have the money. And now with the new CBT, they do have a little bit more room to spend.

Like maybe somebody out of, out of left field, like the Tigers or twins. Yeah. Twins bullpen is pretty good. I don't think they need to invest there. I think Twins' bullpen is pretty good. I don't think they need to invest there. The Giants have money. I don't think they believe in Kimbrel.

They also don't believe probably in giving away prospects to pay somebody $16 million. I think the White Sox are going to be underwhelmed at what they get back in the trade. Or they're going to be left holding the bag. It's possible.

I mean, there's worse things you could be stuck with than another potentially good reliever. Yeah, and guys get hurt. So I get it. I understand. It was strange when they picked him up or kept him for the extra year. Yeah, the extra year. That was a little bit strange.

I think they just figured that somebody would step to the plate. But now I don't see. I see Red Sox. Like, it really is dry. Like, Red Sox. Red Sox. Who am I missing? And they've done it before.

So I don't know if they want to go down that road again. Red Sox and Cubs? Cubs. Back to the Cubs. That'd be so weird. No, they're not. No, that's not, I don't think that's going to happen. That'd be like the Gary Sanchez thing. Man, I don't get it anymore.

Now I'm scared for my Kimbrel shares. Oh, well. Maybe the Rockies will trade for them. Oh, man. That's like the kiss of death. They'll give up an actual prospect, too, because they do it wrong all the time. Rapid fire, other injury and other news things,

some signings, all sorts of stuff. We're going to go through as many of these as we can. Mike Trout is fully healthy. His cap has been fine since mid-October. Not playing center field, though, it looks like. So that's a big up for brandon marsh uh is a fairly big down for justin upton because if trout is playing a corner and marsh is playing in center i guess you could you could have upton but then you have adele so there's a little bit of a crowd

forming there in in anaheim says uh jo says Joe Maddon just spoke to the media about 20 minutes ago and Mike Trout will start in center field. Really? I was reading Jeff Zimmerman's mind in the news from yesterday and he said he wouldn't. Old news. Can't read it anymore. Yesterday?

No chance. All right, let's move on. If it was written yesterday, just take it down because it's already outdated. That messes things. I mean, if they're going to at least begin the season that way, that means they're going to give Justin Upton a shot in left field. And I think that makes sense given his track record,

what they're paying him. And one of Martian and Adele might be in the minors. If you're playing Trout in center, I mean, you could play Martian, right? You just can't because they don't have the flexibility of the DH because Otani is the DH. I think you probably just keep all four and you know you're going to mix and match a little bit.

I mean, there are days that Otani can't DH. So I think you put Upton at DH on those days. I'll say it again. Mike Trout is fully healthy and he has been fine since mid-october how many steels are you gonna get on those on that calf though like seven and a half i don't know how the half works i would love to see it i hope the half steel is not him hurting the calf between first and second. That would be terrible.

No, no. I'm just putting the number out there for an over-under. Jacob deGrom had a bullpen session on Monday, so maybe he's actually healthy too. He's been named the opening day starter by Buck Showalter. That doesn't actually mean anything because you could name anybody an opening day

starter, and if they're not healthy for opening day, they're not going to be the opening day starter, but certainly early encouraging signs for DeGrom. Could see his ADP go nuts in the next couple of weeks. Jose Iglesias signs with the Rockies to be the shortstop. Yeah. I got that on the list. Oh, okay.

I'm just throwing things out there man it's oh i thought we were just going back and forth okay no i gotta go i got a whole mess of them here all right just keep going all right pete alonzo okay after a car accident in florida on sunday's car flipped over three times he had to kick out the windshield to get out he's supposed to work out on tuesday so thankfully he is okay, because that is very scary. The Mets also added Adam Adovino to their bullpen, so that's a really good and deep bullpen. If anything happens to Edwin Diaz in terms of effectiveness or health,

they have plenty of options to replace him. Adovino, Trevor May among them. Zach Wheeler was slowed by shoulder soreness when he started throwing in december his opening day availability is in question so that could be one that ends up moving his adp quite a bit instead of being a guy that goes late round one early to mid round two maybe he slides a little bit we'll get a lot more information on him in the next couple of weeks weird news about zach eflin too i'm having some computer he can be ready for the start of the season. He's

coming off a knee injury. So they're optimistic on Eflin and it sounds like Ranger Suarez who was dealing with some visa issues is nearly at camp. So the team might not be as delayed as previously feared. Justin Verlander threw 35 pitches

in two simulated innings on Sunday. His opening day workload might still be in question, but 35 pitches on Sunday. Let's say he goes 50 on Friday. I think he's going to be pretty close to himself for opening day based on where he's at today. I think you've got to sometimes click through to the article because some of the ways that these things are put out there

don't make sense like the way that i saw that verlander thing i was like oh my god it says verlander's not gonna be ready for opening day like ready and then you like go through oh he's not gonna have necessarily 100 pitches on opening day there's plenty of guys that don't throw 100 pitches on opening day i think we're gonna have a lot of those so oh so you're 90 oh no yeah he's not gonna be on the IL on opening day. That's a very different thing. Oh, man. Adbert Alzalea is going to be on the IL to start the season with shoulder stiffness.

I was unhappy to see that. And Ian Happ on the same team had elbow surgery. We're just now finding out they think it's okay and no big deal and he's ready to go. Yeah, he's supposed to be ready for opening day. The other Astros item, Lance McCullers Jr. won't be ready for opening day.

He's had some setbacks with the forearm injury that ended his season. Dusty Baker saying he's optimistic. It tore off the bone, dude. It tore off the bone. That's bad.

Dusty said he's optimistic that McCullers will pitch this season. That's awful. Just two. Don't say that, Dusty. Off the board, unfortunately, right now. All the best to him as he tries to get back, but I just can't

throw that dart right now. Josh Rojas apparently had shoulder surgery, but was happy that everything's feeling good. He's been hitting, throwing, no issues so far. Can you believe that we're just like, oh yeah, I had shoulder surgery. But I'm jacked i got my red bull and i'm out here and i'm doing everything i feel great best shape of my life somehow

the gnats let us know that steven strasburg is in prep mode rather than rehab mode okay that's what i'm talking about we're sitting here parsing their language i'm just i'm relaying the information and i know i can decide how that makes you feel no i just think no i just think this is funny because it's almost like pr or like the team being aware that we're going to parse their language completely and then trying to like change the like trying to change the message so don't put down that he's not going to be ready for the season he's in prep prep mode. He's not in rehab mode. Right.

Still could open the year on the IL, which is me thinking about what could happen. And it's almost anything. But I remain slightly more optimistic about Strasburg than the market. I've had some shares, man. Yeah, I've had some shares. He seems to slot in first pitcher on the bench in a lot of my leagues. And I kind of like that it's a great place to put him i know the stuff numbers weren't for him weren't great last year but he was hurt

you know and so i'm i'm just sort of betting on track record and saying maybe i'll know early whether or not it was a good pick and if it wasn't then you know it's a bench pick and i get to move on six though sanchez shut down from throwing i have i am sad i just don't think we're going to see a lot of Sixto this year. I'm not going to draft him anywhere until he starts making some progress. And then that might be several weeks. So nothing going on there. The Red Sox manager, Alex Cora, has not named a closer relevant to Matt Barnes, among others. They're adding depth to that bullpen too.

And now it's Kimbrough. Diekman's likely headed there, and Matt Strom already signed. So that bullpen's getting bolstered. Here's one that you saw some video for. Josh Naylor, who's coming back from a knee injury, was crushing the ball, but doesn't appear to be himself while running,

and the knee is still wrapped. So this is one where it's like, yay, we have video of him doing good things. And oh no, he's still not quite all the way back. And I wanted to mention the video because I saw the video on Twitter and I was like, yes, Naylor's like a reserve pick in labor and like I'm rooting for him.

And there's like the opportunity at first and then the outfield and they need him. And there was a gruesome injury and I would love to see him come back. And in the video, it looks like he's socking dingers, you know, and like, you know, they even, the beat writer went out I would love to see him come back. And in the video, it looks like he's socking dingers. The beat writer went out and put X's out in the parking lot where the balls landed. So it's like, oh, man, this is great.

We got some brooder film on this. And then we murdered these baseballs. But then people were talking about he's still taped up and he's still favoring and he's going to talk about his timable this week and it's like oh i hate that and it also makes me think of the videos from ronald acuna that duped me into taking him in the first round where i'm like dude this guy is doing agility drills he's running around he's hitting homers he looks fast like like he's gonna be ready man uh you know we still got doctors we still got timetables we still got you know we're going to take it easy we don't want to risk long-term injury all this stuff so maybe

Naylor ends up starting the season on the IL Instagram is not our friends I do like Naylor once he comes back though for deeper leagues think he ends up finishing the season as the Guardians first baseman even if he doesn't begin the season in that role. Jesse Chavez goes back to the Cubs bullpen. The Jays are stretching out Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, and Thomas Hatch as starters. I think it'd be almost more newsworthy if they weren't stretching those guys out as starters because you tend to stretch out more guys than you need

and then shift guys to the bullpen at the end of spring. Who has options, though, anyway? Because they have five now. You say Kakuchi then that five doesn't include any of those guys so hatch i'm sure has no option so he's going to be stretched out but be the long guy in the major league pen i think this points towards nate pearson starting the season in the minor leagues yeah if they still view him as a starter then that could definitely be the case or he's a multi-inning reliever they could use him the

way the white socks used michael kopek last year wouldn't be the case. Or he's a multi-inning reliever. They could use him the way the White Sox used Michael Kopech last year. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they wanted to see how that played out. Charlie Morton threw a 20-pitch bullpen session on Sunday. Good sign for him as he tries to get ready for opening day. It looks like he is on schedule for that. Keston Hero is taking reps at the outfield. I also just saw Will Salmon and some of the Brewers writers saying that there's an interest in Andrew McCutcheon. So if they add another outfielder, that could be bad for Tyrone Taylor.

It could be also one fewer path to playing time for Keston Hira as well. Forrest Whitley threw a bullpen on Sunday. He had Tommy John surgery last March. Kind of a forgotten guy, though. A very high ceiling prospect who's had a rough run in the upper levels of the minors and injuries on top of that. And Lucas Sims might be hurt, but he says he's all clear regarding potential arm troubles. I just use this as an opportunity to surface the name Art Warren.

I've seen people throw that around as a good reliever in that pen. I think Warren makes a lot of sense. His manager also just recently said he would prefer to have one closer. So it may not be Amir Garrett for lefty heavy and Art Warren if they don't hit this pitch. It may be one clear winner. Still think that's Sims if it's anyone, but it could be Warren. I don't think it's Garrett. Watch closely though because of the uncertainty about Sims. We'll see how much he's pitching in

spring games when that begins and where his velo's at just because I'd like him a lot if he gets the job, but I think Warren is probably their clear-cut best next option if it doesn't work with Lucas Sims. Minor moves. Let me know if you're interested in these guys at all in deeper leagues. Not all minor league signings, but a lot of one-year deals sprinkled in here. Nico Goodrum to the Astros. Yeah, it's

a little bit interesting because it could mean a platoon with Jeremy Pena that works from a handiness perspective. They say he's going to play center and short, but that's a little bit weird. I think the center field will be more of a backup

situation with Chaz McCormick because they're both righties, so there's no sort of obvious platoon idea there. But I could see maybe making it easier on Jeremy Pena, but then the Astros are also in talks, again, hot and heavy with Carlos Correa, so we'll have to see how that all shakes out. But good room depth, mostly. Odibel Herrera re-upped with the phillies so looks like a center field platoon with i think he might be the large side of that platoon i mean

he's the lefty and uh matt veerling is the only other name that uh that really you know there is some news that he's my platoon there and helps them at first base or something but uh that sounds like veerling is more depth and odibel her Herrera somehow is a starting center fielder again. Kurt Suzuki back to the Angels. He'll work as the backup to Max Stassi. Same kind of arrangement that we saw. Steals a little bit of value from Max Stassi who was getting a nice bump in drafts

and everyone liked his barrel rate and thought he was going to get the full catcher stuff there. Maybe he's more 50-50. Yeah, probably more of a fringy top 300 overall guy than a guy to move up further into that range. That's, of course, Stassi, not Suzuki. Suzuki's an AL-only catcher at this point. You know, I mentioned Jose Iglesias earlier.

He's a Rocky. Scott Schebler is a Rocky as well. I actually forgot Scott Schebler was still playing, but yeah, he's just kind of in camp battling for a spot. Iglesias, I think, in N NL only leagues could be pretty nice, but probably more of a mixed league streamer when they're at home. If he ends up in a prominent spot is about as much as I could say about him from the typical league perspective. Nick Whitgrin joined the Cardinals bullpen on a one year deal. Pretty decent bullpen that they've got there.

Another quality arm that doesn't necessarily close but does give them more depth how about carlos martinez getting a minor league deal with the giants they added him and they added jake junis jake junis yes i was gonna say those two i find them both uh slightly boring but um that's uh all related uh to health in carlos martinez case. So maybe he comes back healthier or maybe he finally settles on the bullpen role, gets the velo back because it's short stints and ends up being, you know, late inning option for them in the bullpen.

I don't think that's impossible. Junis made some changes to his slider. It had a slightly different shape late last season and it was getting better results. So I think Junis is, it's hard to say, because Martinez is a little bit more of the starter's arsenal, a little bit wider, but some of his pitches are bad. Like, the cutter is not good. And so, you know, which one are you going to take? Junis is like a two-pitch guy, but it's not like a bullpen guy. Like, I don't think he, I see him like adding a lot of velo and being a great bullpen guy. So I would say the Junis is

the starting pitching depth and Martinez is just the super wild card where they're like, you know, let's see how healthy he is and what his, what his pitches look like in short stints or long stints or whatever. Dodgers added Hanser Alberto on a big league deal, Jake Lamb on an NRI, and Reyes Maranta. Reyes Maranta is such a Dodgers bullpen addition. A guy that had good stuff, got hurt. Yeah, I could see him ending up in kind of a, I don't know, just a middle relief role where he ends up being good just because he's simply healthy at this point.

Alberto was the surprising one for me. I could kind of see with the teams that were interested in Jake Lamb as he's bounced around the last couple of years that teams see something in him. Alberto was not necessarily a guy I pinned to a good team. Well, he's extremely good at making contact. That's about it.

I don't think he's good defensively or anything. And it is kind of weird to look at a team that has Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor and even Matt Beatty, who has a little bit of positional versatility, to say, hey, this team needs more positional versatility. Especially from somebody who can play third base and second base poorly. Just do it. But I would say, I don't know.

This, to me, is a little bit of a hint, like maybe not Freddie Freeman. You know, like I know it's like a tiny, it's just a tiny sign, Hanzo Alberto. Like it doesn't matter. Like you could just cut him if, you know, you signed Freddie Freeman. But this seems like a little bit like,

hey, we're just going to fill in second base. Muncy's our first baseman. But I suppose you could still sign Freddie Freeman, make Muncy the DH, and still want Hanz Berto for middle infield depth. Yeah, good bench guy. Just another insurance policy up the middle, and they love versatility, as we know plenty of

teams do. Matt Moore goes to the Rangers with a non- roster invite. I mean, thought he was kind of interesting in recent years. We'll see if he's able to stick. Louis Brinson went to the Astros, minor league deal. If they're interested, they got to see something that they like. So you can cut the Ks or hit for power with Ks.

I don't know. One of the two. It makes me think in very, very deep leagues as an ultra, ultra late dart. I'm just a little bit interested. The Orioles added Robinson Chirinos. He can just be the seat warmer for Adley Rutschman, serve as the backup all year, and then Luke Maley went to the Guardians.

Rutschman doesn't start the season, though. I kind of knew that was a possibility all along. We just didn't know who the player was going to be, but Chirinos is that guy, if you're in a really deep two-catcher league. I think we did it, unless more news broke in the last couple of minutes. And I really, really got to pee.

I had to pee for like the last 20 minutes. Fangraphs crashed. Eno has to pee. If you got questions for a future episode, you can get us an email. And news is still breaking around us. More to talk about throughout the week. Rates and barrels at theathletic.com.

I know we got a few questions piling up. We'll get to those this week. You can ask us questions in the comment section under this video on YouTube as well. On Twitter, he's at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Riper. Be sure to get a subscription to The Athletic.

$1 a month for the first six months at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Thank you.