Rates & Barrels - Hello Eury Pérez, Goodbye FAB?

Episode Date: May 12, 2023

DVR and Al discuss how much FAB they think should be dedicated towards adding just-promoted Marlins pitching prospect Eury Pérez and consider the fallout from Max Fried’s forearm injury. They also look at several infield options, including Orlando Arcia, Nick Pratto, Casey Schmitt and Andy Ibáñez. DVR and Al walk through the pitching options on waivers (other than Pérez) and assess the Phillies’ closer situation. Rundown 0:32 How much FAB should we dedicate to Eury Pérez? 6:15 Other news items of note 23:56 Lineup developments 37:51 Pitchers of interest 44:54 Streamers/Two-start pitchers 51:49 Closer Corner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, May 12th. Derek Van Ryper here with Al Melchior. It is our usual weekend waiver preview as we dig through the big important news of the week and try to get ready for the upcoming fab runs coming up on Sunday night in most weekly leagues. And Al, we have yet another big-time prospect coming up, and Yuri Perez will make his big-league debut for the Marlins on Friday night. So by the time many people listen to this show,

we'll already have his first big-league start in the books. And it's fitting because at the beginning of the week, I was considering the possibility of trying to be more disciplined about the players I was bidding on with precious fab dollars. And Perez is one of those pitching prospects that if you liked Taj Bradley, you should love Yuri Perez because you're talking about a guy who's 6'8", with premium velocity, command, an arsenal that's four pitches deep, and a guy that lands in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball. Those are the positives. Those positives come at a steep cost. Usually, it's a massive portion of your fab budget. Oftentimes, people are going to go to 20%,

25%, maybe a little more for a player like this. You don't have to bid that way. You could be less aggressive. You could take a shot at 8% or 10% or 12% or whatever the number it is you're comfortable with based on what you have. But regardless of how much you like him, what do you think about Perez and his role with the Marlins? How much of a fixture do you think he'll be in this rotation? Do you think he's up for good? And is your trust level high enough to consider being more aggressive even though fab money seems to be drying up pretty fast this season. Right. I mean, it seems like every week there's somebody that would say, well, you may have to spend 20% to get them, you know, at least 10 or 15.

I was all prepared. I get like you were alluding to DVR, you know, to write a lead for the waiver column, like this week you could save your money. But then I obviously had to change that. So, and, and I think, whereas whereas I think it was a week or two ago, we were talking about Bryce Miller. And I was saying, yeah, it's probably going to take 20% to get him. But I'm not going more than like 8 to 10. Because somebody like Perez is coming and is going to be probably better. So, yeah, I'm not going to be suggesting that anybody should hold back. So, yeah, I'm not going to be suggesting that anybody should hold back. I think in shallower leagues, or I'm sorry, rather deeper leagues, maybe a quarter of your budget, your original budget is what it might take and probably is worth it because you look down the line in terms of pitchers. I mean, Ricky Tiedemann's dealing with an injury right now. Kyle Harrison hasn't been playing that well.

Eli De La Cruz on the hitter side is somebody, I think, who could command a big bid. But I feel like, you know, those numbers are dwindling. And Perez is one of the players that we had been anticipating, you know, on draft day. This is somebody that we should plan on stashing. You know, when are they going to come up? So, yeah, in terms of him being a fixture,

I mean, the Marlins have two big holes in the rotation right now with Cueto and Rodgers, both on the IL, neither one with a timetable, a specific timetable for returning. So you figure Perez is going to get a long look. And I just would be surprised if he'd gone back down again. So I think the thing that I would be mindful of is that you're probably going to be capped somewhere in the 70 to 80 innings range from Perez for the rest of the season. But what I would suggest is think about how many innings the other starters you're going to pick up the rest of the season are going to get. Yes, there will be plenty that don't have any sort of workable restrictions.

Some older guys that aren't going to be shut down or managed very carefully around the all-star break or skipped when the schedule allows. There are a lot of different things the Marlins can do. Perez is a huge part of their future. This is a front of the rotation arsenal. This is the ceiling he has. It's a true ace potential. And he has not thrown more than 78 innings in a season yet in their organization because of the fact that he's been very young. This is a guy who's going to debut at 20 years old. And he just turned 19 last month. So there will be significant kid gloves. But ask yourself, what's the value of 70, 75, 80 innings of a possible low threes ERA, a good whip, a strikeout per inning, or a lot more? It's extremely valuable to get that. Especially when we talk about pitching every week on this show, it's brutal.

The availability or lack thereof of more established, quality veteran pitchers most weeks in most leagues makes it all the more tempting to take the chances on these younger players that can be much, much better than league average. So the ceiling's very, very high. The other thing to be mindful of, I looked ahead at the schedule for Perez. After the debut, Friday night against the Reds, if you start looking a little further down the schedule, there is a matchup against Colorado at Coors Field coming up.

So you have to keep that in mind as one possible start where maybe you're not going to feel comfortable throwing him because you don't want to throw anybody at Coors Field if you can help it. So just keep that in mind as far as a roster management perspective goes. Make sure you've got enough pitching depth to possibly have someone available to use in his place there. But I'm on board with the big bids. If you haven't spent it already, I think we are beginning to get to the point with pitching prospects in particular. A lot of the guys that we're going to see for a prolonged stretch this season have already been called up. Unless you're saving it for a bat, which you very well might be, I think it's totally justified.

The talent is certainly there, and it's one of the debuts I'm very excited to watch. Probably one of the most exciting debuts for me from an anticipation perspective that we've had all season. of the most exciting debuts for me from an anticipation perspective that we've had all season. The other big injury news this week on the pitching front, though, was in Atlanta. They don't have a Yuri Perez to call it. Most teams don't. Where now Max Fried is out with a forearm injury, likely until the All-Star break. Kyle Wright's down with a shoulder injury. Could be just as long for him. And it forces more of their depth starters into the mix. So it could be some more Dylan Dodd, Jared Schuster. I'm curious, as you look at that depth chart

and try to sift through the short-term winners, I hate to call them that, but that's what they are as far as the guys getting the opportunities, who do you believe in, if anyone, taking over these spots in Atlanta? Because I think this is going to be a big test for their rotation overall. They've got a nice lead in the NL East right now. Got a great lineup. Got a great bullpen.

They don't have to overexpose these starters that are working out of the back end of the rotation. But is there anyone you could see emerging as maybe an overlooked pickup for these next couple of weeks? I don't think so, to be honest. And I had said early on, I think it was maybe a couple weeks into the season and the Braves still had that very fuzzy situation with the SP5. And I thought, okay, Schuster is the one with the highest ceiling. He's probably somebody to stash. And so now he's getting an opportunity,

but hasn't really pitched that well at Gwinnett. So David O'Brien from The Athletic, he had tweeted a few days back, maybe we would see Michael Soroka today, Friday. And it's Schuster instead. So I don't know what he knows. Maybe that Soroka is getting close. But I'd say of the three of Soroka, Schuster, and Dylan Dodd, I do like Soroka the best.

I don't know that he'll necessarily be the same pitcher he was when he first came up. But I think I maybe like him a little better than the two prospects. But I think, and I wrote this in the column, I think you do have to sort of contain your expectations because even at his best, Soroka was not really a great strikeout pitcher and he hasn't been at Gwinnett so far. So I think he's the sort of guy that you could trust in 15-teamers,

maybe with good matchups, you'd stream him in 12-teamers. But I feel like maybe that's his ceiling this year. Yeah, Soroka, from a fantasy perspective, was similar to Kyle Hendricks as far as good ratios, low K rate. I think when you watch Soroka, you could see he commanded things really well. I think when you watch Soroka, you could see he commanded things really well. You could sort of buy in like, okay, this actually is more sustainable than a lot of other guys who miss bats as infrequently as he does. He just hasn't been that guy yet working back from his second Achilles tear. It's hard to know if it's going to happen in these next couple of weeks.

At some point, you get the feeling the Braves are going to have to just see what happens at the big league level if the results at AAA can just get a little bit better because he's been very inconsistent there. I think his last three outings now have been four innings or starter. It's hard to say that about a guy who's only 25 years old, but Soroka had more of that crafty vibe about him even when he broke through really young. That's just always been who he's been. If you said you have to choose one from that group of Atlanta starters, I think it's tough. I think I'm a little more comfortable with Dylan Dodd than I am with Jared Schuster. I think with Schuster, that lack of velo really bugs me. And I think that's where I think he could end up getting hit quite a bit. So it's going to cost you a small fraction of what it would take to get Perez. So that's the appeal. It's the scrap heap.

Maybe you spent your money already. Maybe you just want to see what happens and play matchups. It's the scrap heap. Maybe you spent your money already. Maybe you just want to see what happens and play matchups. I understand those being pretty viable paths at this point if you don't want to go all in, smash the piggy bank for Uri Perez. Or if someone else just goes more aggressive than you do. That always happens too. Yeah.

And I want to throw in just one more name as an alternative. And it's a name I wouldn't have expected to include in a discussion this week. expected to include in a discussion this week. But Logan Allen, the Guardians' Logan Allen, his roster rate's a lot lower than I expected it would be at this point. So I think he's still out there in quite a few 12-team leagues. So I kind of like the idea if he's available to sneak him through because at this point, the hype has sort of subsided. The roster rates have kind of leveled off, and you're getting somebody who maybe isn't that much of a downgrade from Perez. Yeah, I'm surprised he's still out there in shallow leagues. I think I spend too much time thinking about NFBC-style leagues

where Logan Allen is long gone, but he should be rostered pretty much everywhere. I think everything looks really good as far as the arsenal is concerned, and opportunities should still be there for a while, if not for the rest of the season. Yeah, I'm surprised he wasn't. Miranda down earlier this week. And eventually it could be Lewis. I think it's going to be a somewhat lengthy rehab assignment, but that just means they do have something there. And I guess the question would be if Royce Lewis is available and you want to try and get ahead of the curve, are you stashing him now? He's coming off his second ACL tear.

So that's part of why I felt like I wrote him off. He's ahead of schedule in his recovery, which is really great to hear. But I just wonder, is he going to come back and be an everyday guy or the twins are going to have to break him in kind of carefully, make sure he gets that preventative maintenance, gets those somewhat regular days off just to make sure that they're not causing two pretty significant injuries to become more of a long-term problem. Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the cautious approach that the twins took with Lewis. That said, I think if you have the space to stash Lewis now, it's certainly going to be cheaper to get him in fab than if you go now rather than when there's news of his imminent return. And if you can stash him now while you wait for him to come back, you can probably stash him a few more weeks

while you see what the playing time situation is. And at least now with Miranda down AAA, there's a clearer path for him. Whereas even a week ago, I thought, well, when he comes back, when he's ready to come back, where's he even going to play? Yeah, keep an eye on the usage.

Make sure he's actually playing as much third base in the minors as he would need to. It could be more of a super sub role for Lewis where he gets starts all over the place, but he just ends up getting the bulk of that time at third base based on needs for that Minnesota roster. Other Twins news from this week, we found out that Tyler Malley is going to have a Tommy John surgery. So that really opens up the Bailey over Louis Varlin battle for a permanent role because it looked previously like Malley was going to have a Tommy John surgery. So that really opens up the Bailey over Louis Varlin battle for a permanent role because it looked previously like Mally was going to come back sometime around the all-star break.

Now that spot is open indefinitely. Yeah. And both over and Varlin, I think are viable 12 teamers for the short term. And I think that they're, you know, they're the type of picture that you'd be streaming, whether it's off of waivers or off of your bench anyway,

in that depth of a league. So I'm not too worried about the longer term implications, but it's going to be interesting to watch because I really could see either Ober or Varland surge ahead and be good enough to stay in that rotation. I feel like it's close to a push. Yeah, I like both's close to a push. Yeah, I like both of them quite a bit. I think if you said choose one, I'd prefer Ober. I mentioned this last week. This is a good test on the schedule for the Twins. They just had a series

with the Padres. They've got the Dodgers on the road coming up during the upcoming week. They've got the Angels on the road. They're back home to face the Giants, and then they face the Jays at home for one of their last series in May. So we're going to learn a lot about this team. We're going to see if they can actually open up a lead in the AL Central and how they stack up against a few other likely playoff clubs, at least two likely playoff clubs between the Dodgers and the Jays. But curious to see how those guys fare in these next couple of weeks. And the Twins also have Alex Kirilov back up. He is getting a ton of playing time right now, Al. I've been interested in Kirilov in the past.

I think as long as he's going to play nearly every day, he goes from a guy that may have been available in a lot of leagues to someone that kind of fits in some of those more shallow formats out there. I think you could make a case for Kirilov being good enough in a 12-team league to have a roster spot. I think so, kind of in a borderline way. And part of the issue, too, is out now how much he's going to play against lefty starters. And so that's always kind of a dicey proposition to be stashing somebody on your bench.

I mean, for a few weeks, I had Trent Grisham. Finally had to let him go because I just wasn't using him enough. So I've kind of put Kirilov in that same category. But I think at the very least, he's somebody that you could stash for a while and probably wind up using at least some weeks. Three left-handed starters on the schedule for the six games next week against the Dodgers and Angels. So that does temper bidding at least and makes you probably hold back unless you're in a league with daily moves in some of those more shallow formats. So be mindful of the schedule,

both Kirilov around the various injuries. He's had a career 9.9% barrel rate as a big league hitter. I think that power is real. I think we're going to see more consistency from him with health here in the weeks ahead. We have news on Tyler Glass now. He will resume rehabbing on Tuesday at AAA Durham. Really good news, but another potential hurdle for Taj Bradley,

who's also struggling at AAA right now. So once Glass now is back, the Rays are even better in that rotation than they've been so far. Luis Severino scheduled to make another start at AAA on Tuesday. He threw 49 pitches over three and a third innings last time out So it looks like he's getting close to a return And then Lance McCullers who might actually be available I think with Glasnow and Severino those players are clearly stashed There might be some leagues where Lance McCullers Especially leagues with no IL spots

McCullers could be out there He's throwing bullpens Still a few weeks away from being ready to rejoin the Astros I think he's going to need a full-on rehab assignment to get fully stretched out again. That means that Brandon Bielek and JP France both stay in the rotation for now. I think

of those two, it's pretty clear France looks better and he's got the inside track to the longer-term opportunity. Once McCullers is back, I think he could actually be one of the handful of veteran impact starters that emerges on the wire for us in a lot of leagues. Right,

right. So yeah, we started off talking about Perez and other prospects that come up. I wouldn't imagine that McCullers would, when he comes up and part of this too, it's just, it's later on and people will have fewer funds in their fab budget, but I don't imagine him being somebody who's necessarily going to get 15, 20%.

So it's something to keep your eye on. And maybe as that return date gets closer, try to get ahead of it a little bit and conserve your fab that way. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over

50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... life's a trip make the most of it at best western one of their big position player promotion for this week casey schmidt up with the giants and he's just on a tear to start his big league career. It's been pretty impressive to see so far. Two home runs already. Finished a

triple short of the cycle in Thursday's win over the Diamondbacks. So look at what he's doing in his first three games. Yes, that's everything you could possibly want. I love that because the power, the game power dried up in the upper levels of the minor leagues for the brief time he was there. I saw the possibility of an average with no power, but that's not really the profile. The more you look at Casey Schmidt, the questions about him were more with the hit tool and whether or not he's going to avoid

the strikeouts enough to be a non-liability in batting average. Thus far, just 1K through 12 plate appearances, all of your small sample size caveats apply. But my even half mention of David Fletcher, my comp from the first time when looking at the number scouting, it's absurd. It's not even close because Casey Schmidt already hit a ball three miles an hour harder than David Fletcher has ever hit one in the big leagues.

So not even close as far as the talent goes. I think it could be a 250, 260 average with like 15 home run pop, maybe a little bit more in there in the long run. I just think with that ballpark in particular, it's always an uphill battle to offer homers right away. But the key for Casey Schmidt is he's a great defender. He can play all over left side of the is an area of need, especially shortstop. Brandon Crawford kind of looks like he's at the very end of his career. So I think Schmidt, if he's going to give them any sort of upgrade offensively, is a regular for the Giants for the foreseeable future. Having his hot week is going to make it hard to sneak him in as an inexpensive add this weekend.

him in as an inexpensive ad this weekend. I don't think he's going to be Uri Perez, 20% of your budget, but I think it is going to cost you a little something given how well he's playing right now. Yeah. And I sort of dodged writing about him. And granted, I wrote the column before the four hit night. So maybe I would have revised things a little bit just based on people's expectations. Not that that made him a better hitter automatically. things a little bit just based on people's expectations not that that made him a better hitter automatically but um i i also just worry too the giants in terms of usage the giants have

been a little bit more stable with the lineups than maybe the last few years but i still i i given even what you said about brandon crawford i'm not sure i see enough of a solid everyday role for Schmidt. Maybe he's, like you said, a super utility guy who can play either position on the left side. But I don't know. I agree with you. I think the bidding's going to just put in a kind of keep-you-honest bid to see if it sneaks through, but I don't think it will. And I'm just not confident enough that I would want to give up more to get Schmidt. Yeah, what's been interesting is when you look at the fluctuations in his batted ball profile. To begin this season at AAA, Casey Schmidt was hitting the ball on the ground more than ever. 51% ground ball rate, 145 plate appearances at one level doesn't paint a complete picture of who a player is. But just seeing that makes me wonder if there was some kind of attempt to adjust. To maybe strike out a little bit less.

Some kind of swing change. To see him getting to some power right away in the big leagues. It's encouraging. Projections are usually a good way to kind of ground your expectations in the face of a fast start. The Bat-X has a 252, 297, 382 line projected for Casey Schmidt. Even if you want to argue the over on that, and I'm not against arguing the over on that, it would be more of a slight over. It'd be, again, like a 260, 325, 415 to 440 slug, depending on how much power he's getting to right away. That plays in deeper leagues. I guess the apples to apples40 slug, depending on how much power he's getting to right away. That plays in deeper leagues.

I guess the apples to apples comparison would be if you just had Jose Miranda get sent down and you're looking for help on the corner, does Casey Schmidt cover that well enough? Is that close enough in a 15-team mixed league? Is Casey Schmidt viable as a sub for a player like that well absolutely I'm not sure that there would be a better alternative I'm actually going to take a quick look at my TGFBI to see because I just can't think of anybody offhand who would be a better sub in that that type of league yeah broadly available so every league is different because depending on who actually gets cut by other managers, you may have some players that are 75, 80% rostered that come available in your individual league. But as far as new entrance to the pool, I don't think we have anybody else on our rundown today that's consistently available who could help you as much as Schmidt could help you replace someone like Miranda, who I thought was going to play every day. I was really surprised when they sent him down. But I do know the combination of not hitting with the lack of defensive value

made that kind of an uphill battle for him to stay. I will say that for all the Casey Schmidt talk this week, through it all, I just think he's going to play. I'm more optimistic about his playing time than you are. I think it's because they can probably get to the point once Crawford's back, maybe they can play Crawford a little bit at second base. They can make him more of a part-time player. They can move J.D. Davis around between third and first.

J.D. Davis has been a lot better defensively so far this year too, which certainly helps his bid for playing time. But there are so many moving parts in this Giants lineup. The younger guy of that group might be the one who can emerge to play the most. It could be a lot of Schmidt and Tyro Estrada on the infield and then everybody else sort of revolving around them. Well, and to just tack on to that point,

maybe I made a little too much of the playing time issue because now I've got the list of free agents for my 15-team TGFBI and the options, I think some of the better options would be Emmanuel Rivera, Andy Abanez, who I think we're going to talk about a little bit later, Kevin Smith. So you get the picture here. I mean, it's either regulars who just aren't very productive or players who maybe get four starts a week who are a little better, but aren't necessarily any better than Casey Schmidt. So yeah, he's probably as viable a third base replacement and a 15-teamer as anybody.

And he'll pick up shortstop eligibility in a lot of leagues quickly too. So you got that extra versatility. Love the players. You can move between middle and corner. That adds a lot of extra value as you manage your roster on a week-to-week basis as well. It is possible Orlando Arcia was either never rostered or quickly dropped when his wrist injury happened. He's going to play a lot for Atlanta. They sent Von Grissom back down, so

Grissom continues to work on his defense at AAA. I'm actually interested to see if they give him a shot in the outfield at some point, given some of the needs Atlanta might have in left field. But as far as Arcia goes, and I just feel like I need to emphasize this again, he became a slightly different hitter last year. Al, if you start looking at what he did as a part-time player for the Braves, it was just 234 plate appearances. We saw a 7.5% barrel rate. It's the best of his career. He's maintained that early on this season, staying above 7%, hitting hitting the ball really hard hitting the ball on the ground a little bit more in the 16 games he's played this year but that's a really small sample i don't think the speed we

were getting from arcia earlier in his career i don't think we're gonna get more than a bag or two he hasn't even attempted a stolen base as a member of the Braves in 84 games. But I think because their lineup is so good everywhere else, they can afford to just see what happens. If they like Arcea enough defensively to roll him out there as a high volume player at shortstop, he gets the benefit of kind of showing everybody that the adjustments he's made as the hitter might actually be real. I mean, brought the walk rate up last year, added the power without adding strikeouts. That's pretty impressive. And once upon a time, Orlando Arcia was a prospect in the Brewers system.

He was a player when he broke in that we all liked, at least as a middle infielder that could do a little bit of everything. Yeah, and you mentioned the strength of the Braves lineup, and he is hitting at the bottom of it, so that curbs his total number of plate appearances a bit, but I mean, it's not even just a matter of that though. You know,

he gets on base and then the lineup turns over and he's got a really good shot of getting, getting driven in, but he's hitting behind Michael Harris, Travis Darnot, Ozzie LB. So I mean, that's just such a great lineup from top to bottom.

And so there's some real run production appeal there as well for somebody who's hitting ninth. I think we mentioned him on last week's show just from the playing time perspective, but Nick Prado continues to play a lot for the Royals, put together a really nice week, and now has a season line that's starting to look kind of exciting i saw him get picked up in our keeper league on thursday night not surprising since he's a 24

year old who was a 14th overall pick back in 2017 and a guy that's actually shown in the upper levels of the minor leagues that he can get to that power in game situations 38 combined home runs at triple a between 2021 and 2022 that's in about about 145 games, so a full season's worth of plate appearances. It comes with swing and miss, but Prado also takes his walks. So we're now looking at a guy that has an 11% barrel rate for his career as a big league hitter. He's not chasing a ton of pitches outside the zone, and he can work a walk. And on top of that, chasing a ton of pitches outside the zone, and he can work a walk. And on top of that, he looks pretty good defensively at first base too.

So I think this could be real as far as playing time goes. I think similar to where I would draw the line with Casey Schmidt, I don't know if we're looking at Prado as a shallow mixed league player anytime soon, and I think there's probably a much lower floor here than there is with Schmidt as well, so you have to account for that. But the power is legit. If you need cheap power, you can do a lot worse than Nick Prado on the wire this weekend. Oh, for sure.

Yeah. And I really like the power skills a lot. You know what I was saying about the Braves lineup, kind of the opposite for the Royals lineup. Although, you know, there's the middle of it as there it, as there is with pretty much any major league team. There's some good hitters that he could be driving in. But I worry maybe just slightly about playing time because there's going to have to be some sort of DH rotation there between him and Vinny Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but that's kind of picking nits.

I mean, he's clearly somebody who needs to be rostered in 15 teamers. I think because of the team context, 12 team is probably a little out of reach, but not far off. I try to keep an open mind with this profile when the barrel rate's as good as it is. I mean, when it really pops, you get a Brent Rooker. Sometimes it doesn't go quite that well, but I think the Royals have every reason to keep seeing what Nick Prado can bring for them. It's funny that the little bit of information so far, outs above average for Nick Prado, fifth percentile, but he is an above average defender.

It's supposed to be anyway. So over a full season, I would expect that to normalize. That helps keep the playing time afloat too for a guy that might run a bit hot and cold with the swing and miss in his profile. If you're looking at Nick Pradoado you're probably looking at ryan nota as well i saw this during the a's game and why was i watching an a's game i think there were only six games on the schedule on thursday and well they're they're on all the time here being in the bay area but nota has a 22 percent walk rate this season which is is just absurd. And it's 123 plate appearances. He's always shown the ability to draw walks. It does come with some swing and miss.

Apples to apples, though, if you're looking for help on the corner. Prado versus Noda, who do you like more in the short term? I like Prado a little bit better. Yeah, I just, even though the on-base percentages is out of this world for Noda, uh, I, I just do, uh, trust Prado's power production a bit more. Uh, and as much as I just maligned the Royals lineup, I like it a little bit better than the A's lineup. So I'll go with Prado.

It's surprising to me how much better the A's lineup has been so far than the Royals. I would expect that to level out. I'm not trusting it. They should at least be similar. I don't know if it'll be a complete flip, but they'll be closer at the end of the season than they have been so far. Noda, he's a little bit older than Prados. I'm with you. He runs reasonably well for a bigger guy, 52nd percentile in sprint speed, and he was racking up steals at AAA last year.

As a member of the Dodgers organization, Ryan Noda went 20 for 24 as a base stealer while popping 25 home runs last season at AAA. So yes, it was in an offensively in charged environment with being old for the level. All of those things are true, but another type of player that if you're Oakland, it's like, just see what happens.

Let this guy play and see if he can actually make more adjustments because you just don't find a lot of guys that walk as often as Ryan Noda can walk and pair other tools with it. At least average power, but I think probably a tick more based on what we saw a season ago at AAA. You mentioned Andy Abanez. He's got a role in Detroit, Al. He's been interesting in the past in Texas when opportunities have opened up.

It seems like there's a better path to playing time right now for him with the Tigers. He's more of like a low strikeout rate, hit the ball over the field sort of guy. What kind of ceiling do you think Andy Abana is bringing? He's already 30 years old, so he's not a prospect or anything along those lines, but plays a little bit all over the place and does enough things well where I think, at least for deeper leagues,

he can be something of a glue guy. Oh, I think so. And I mean, in terms of ceiling, I don't want to get carried away here, but in AAA, he's really hit for quite a bit of power. And I've gotten burned in the past, particularly on this show, talking about older players who put up big numbers in AAA and not expecting them to translate when they get called up to the majors. And sometimes in the case of like a Frank Schwindel, it doesn't, it's not something that lasts, but sometimes it does. So I'm not saying that Abanez is going to reach that ceiling of being maybe a, you know, from here on out, say a 20 homer guy.

And that kind of profile makes him somebody who's important to that Detroit lineup and should get a lot of playing time and have a nice position in the batting order. So I think all of that still keeps him out of 12-team leagues, but I think he could be a really useful guy in 15-teamers. Yeah, I think as a kind of a bench hitter in a 15-team league, Ibanez makes sense. The good news is I don't think it's going to take more than a min bid to get him most places. I think that's the best thing about him. The same could probably be said for Brett Wisely. I think the problem with Brett Wisely is that the Giants could become crowded enough where he gets sent down.

Pretty interesting power-speed combo, as we saw earlier in the week when Eno and I were looking at this profile, kind of comparing him to David Villar. I think there's a better chance that Wisely sticks on the roster than Villar at this stage, given their performances. Wisely can play a little bit of center field as well. So I'm kind of curious to see how they deploy him in these next couple of weeks. I hope he stays on the roster. And there's a little bit more in terms of fantasy tools here. Ibanez is just more of a guy that's going to go out there and just hit wisely could steal some bases could get to some power more consistently has shown an ability to control the strike zone throughout most of his minor league stops we'll see what happens as he gets more exposure to big league playing time I do think

as a lefty very likely he won't see a lot of same-handed pitching so you have to account for that with the playing time projection. Yeah, but definitely an option for cheap steals in 15-team leagues. Playing time should be there. And yeah, it's kind of odd. He's barely walked so far. But again, it's a pretty small sample. But maybe winds up scoring some runs too.

So yeah, there's some upside there with Wisely. I realize it's been a few weeks since we really looked at catchers, and there hasn't been a ton to get excited about. Miguel Amaya got a brief taste of the big leagues while Jan Gomes was hurt, but he got sent back down with Gomes coming off the IL. With changes to Wilson Contreras' role, that was the surprise, of course, of last weekend when that news broke over the weekend. Andrew Kisner is going to get a lot more playing time for the cardinals at least in the short term and i do think with a guy like

kisner the shape of his playing time in the big leagues since he debuted back in 2019 has been so unusual because of yadier molina and the lack lack of consistent opportunities for him. Obviously, Kisner got to nearly 300 plate appearances last season, and I actually thought he fared reasonably well at the plate given the lack of opportunities previously. I understand that a 79 WRC plus is nothing to write home about, but if you go back to AAA in 2019, yes, that was a year of the rabbit ball. We saw a guy that kept the strikeouts down at AAA and got to power on a regular basis. 12 homers in just 66 games that year around some brief time with the big clubs.

So I look at those past skills. You see a guy that's barreling the ball pretty consistently right now. He's shown decent hard hit numbers in those intermittent opportunities to play with the Cardinals. I actually think Andrew Kisner could be a useful min bid pickup in two catcher leagues if you're just looking for playing time, because I think he's probably a better hitter than he's shown us to this point in his big league career. Yeah, you know, that's a good perspective on Kisner because I last year when he got the big bump in playing time, I rostered him in a deep dynasty league

and held on way too long, kind of waiting for that turnaround, kind of making the same analysis of the minor league numbers as you did DVR. So yeah, when I saw the news about Contreras, it was just from a fancy perspective, sort of a big yawn for me because it's like, okay, we've seen this guy.

But that's a really good point. I think that's very kind of ungenerous interpretation on my part that he hasn't really gotten a fair look and he's still young enough to deliver on some of those minor league numbers. One thing though, you mentioned he's barreling the ball. It's not really the exit velocity that's changing for him. It's the batted ball profile. He's just hitting a lot of fly balls. And that's changing for him. It's the batted ball profile. He's just hitting a lot of fly balls. And that's a profile where if he was playing in Cincinnati or Philadelphia, I'd be a little bit excited. But in St. Louis,

I think there's just not enough streaming opportunities for him to really help. And I mean, if we're talking like, you know, two catcher leagues, particularly like 15 team, two catcher leagues, then yeah, I think he's probably an upgrade or likely an upgrade over your number two catcher leagues particularly like 15 team two catcher leagues then yeah i think he's probably an upgrade or likely an upgrade over your number two catcher but you know that's it's not an extremely high bar that i'm i'm setting there and uh i i don't really see a lot more besides that yeah it's kind of like if you're just desperate for playing time in a two catcher league of that size you're looking at kisner versus freddie fermin versus like Sebi Zavala if Yasmany Grandal's injury turns into an IL situation, which right now doesn't look like that's the case. As of Friday afternoon, that could always change, of course, in the next couple of days. is kind of shifting more into a heavy DH role at this stage of his career.

MJ Melendez playing a lot in the outfield. Suddenly, there are starts behind the plate available for Firmin. And you look back at what he did at AAA last year, 15 homers in 87 games. He drew walks. He didn't strike out that much. I kind of think this is a useful second catcher option, too, if you're just desperate for someone that's getting opportunities. I would agree. I think that, you know,

between for me and, and Kisner, I would give Kisner a little bit of an edge just because I think the playing time is going to be more consistent, but I think the ceiling is probably higher for, for me. So nothing else, somebody to watch for the next week or so and see how that playing

time starts to shake out. Yeah. We've seen double digit home run power from him in the past in basically half seasons at minor league stops, AA and AAA. So don't write him off completely just because you think that there are two other more fantasy viable catcher eligible players there. They have room to actually play all of those players. Let's move on to some other pitchers. It's Yuri Perez week. That's very clear. If he wasn't picked up last week in your league, Luis Ortiz for the Pirates has a road trip to Detroit on tap, Al, which is a really nice way to continue the schedule for him. I think he can

pitch his way into a permanent spot. If he pitches well, no questions asked. They can find some way to make it work. Otherwise, if he struggles, once Vince Velasquez comes back, sure, they'll swap him back out and option him back down. But Ortiz pitched pretty well at AAA to begin the season. 29-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a.223 ERA for Indianapolis before that five-inning debut earlier this week. Yeah, I think he's got a good chance to stick and to succeed before the Pirates have to make a decision there. But I think, you know, whereas last year, looking at his numbers and thinking,

okay, this is somebody who could come up and maybe you worry about the walks, but this guy could really be a good strikeout pitcher. But I think based on what he's done at AAA, I think my expectations are more for somebody who's like a Graham Ashcraft with a little bit more strikeout upside. But maybe his main appeal in fantasy is that he's going to be able to keep the ERA low between the ground ball rate and the pitching in the park that he pitches in. Yeah, it was surprising to see just one strikeout in that season debut against the Rockies. Ido mentioned the AAA stuff numbers

weren't quite as good as what was happening in the model a season ago, but Luis Ortiz, still just 24 years old, still kind of putting all the pieces together, and given the lack of other intriguing pitchers in many leagues, if Ortiz is still out there, he's absolutely worth a consideration, especially for this matchup.

If nothing else, he could stream against the Tigers and think about moving on next weekend. But I think there's more than a streaming core talent here. James Paxton is back. Should we care? I mean, I've wanted Paxton to get healthy just so we could see what was left in the tank for what feels like three years now. And now it's going to happen for him, at least for a little while, as a member of this Red Sox rotation. Right. I mean, there's two different levels of following here, right? In part, it's just wanting him just to be back and to succeed and stay healthy.

And then there's trying to look at this from the fantasy manager's perspective in a more cold calculating way. And so, you know, hopefully he gets back to being a 12 team relevant starter. That's not how I think we should treat him this weekend, but I think he's a must add in 15 teamers. We'll see here on Friday night, exactly how, how things go. But unless it's pretty bad, I'll certainly be placing some sort of bid on him in 12-teamers.

And I had kind of a modest recommendation in the column, but if it goes well on Friday, then you may have to ratchet that up a little bit. I think it's a little bit like Michael Soroka. We talked about Soroka earlier where you can't expect him to be the guy that he was before all the injuries, but he still may be good enough to be viable in some deeper leagues. I'm with you on the 15-team leagues. I think it's a lower-end bid, though. I don't think it's a 5-plus percent bid because he used to be James Paxton. This is

a guy that might be a little better than most teams' back-end starters, and let's just see what happens. Fortunately, we do get a peek at him on Friday night before having to make those bid calls, but I'm at least thinking about it heading into the weekend, depending on how things go. Dane Dunning getting some starts right now in place of Jacob deGrom, and based on the report from earlier this week, deGrom's still at least two or three weeks away from returning to that Rangers rotation. So what is your interest level in Dane Dunning? Yeah, I've liked Dunning in the past when he had a more stable role in the Rangers rotation. But in previous seasons, I mean, he was somebody who was kind of flirting with the strikeout per inning, and that just hasn't been there so far

this year. So the level of interest is pretty low. I think it's just as long as he's in the Rangers rotation, you look at the matchups coming up. I don't think that he's somebody who in a bad matchup will hurt you. I mean, rather in a favorable matchup is going to hurt you, but I think that's the extent. And I'm also talking about 15 teamers. So he's not even on my radar in terms of anything shallower than that. Yeah. A few tweaks to that pitch mix. Dane Dunning still doesn't throw particularly hard. So his margins for error are small. A little bit of a concern, the swing strike rate is down along with that K rate. So if he gets it back, you're probably looking at a guy that's going to strike out seven, seven and a half batters per nine as opposed to eight plus

like he's done up until this point in the big leagues. And even with those higher K rates, there was always a ratio risk with Dane Dunning. So he's a very matchup dependent starter, but at least someone to think about that wasn't previously on the radar. Two more injured starters making their way back closer to returns. Kyle Hendricks making his fourth rehab start Sunday at AAA Iowa and Daniel Lynch, who seems to be getting close to getting ready.

But I think with Lynch, I need to see evidence that he's going to put pieces together before I could even take the chance on rostering him. If you want to throw Daniel Lynch on your roster in a mono league, like AL only or 20 team dynasty league, okay. I can understand that. A redraft league otherwise, a redraft mixed league, no thanks. Is it different though with Kyle Hendricks given his past successes with far from premium velocity? Well, I'm pretty much out on both of them because it's been a while

since we've seen that version of Kyle Hendricks. And certainly in the case of Lynch, I think you can pass on him outside of mono leagues just because I don't think that there's a lot of widespread interest in him, even in 15-teamers. I sort of suspect it's the same with Hendricks, maybe unfairly.

Maybe a healthy Hendricks, maybe unfairly, you know, maybe, maybe a healthy Hendricks is going to be closer to the, the version that we saw a few years back. But yeah, this weekend I'll, I'll be quiet on both of them. So if Hendricks were to come back next week, it'd be sometime in that series against the Phillies on the road.

I would not want to throw him sight unseen in that spot, especially with Bryce Harper back in the fold. Nick Castellanos kind of rebounding at the plate this year. There's still too much that can go wrong. Eventually, Trey Turner is going to hit at typical Trey Turner levels. JT Real Muto is going to hit more like JT Real Muto. That's a matchup that I just don't mess with at all. I think we have to look at Hendricks as a back-end starter that can be used carefully at home. The tricky one would be if he's in the

rotation for a home start against the Mets the following week, that might play for me in deeper leagues. So I want to see how this next rehab start goes, but I'm a little more interested in Kyle Hendricks than I am in, say, like, Dane Dunning by comparison, and certainly more interested in Hendricks than I am in Daniel Lynch. I want Daniel Lynch to figure it out. It just seems like between health and just not being consistent enough with the control, it's just not going to happen for him, at least in Kansas City. Maybe he'll be somebody else's reclamation project at some point in the months ahead.

Let's get to a few other pitchers, streamers, and potential two-steps. This week's edition of Would You Start That Pitcher Against the A's features Tommy Henry. Would you start Tommy Henry on the road against the A's? No, I would not. And as I was scanning the probables for the coming week and I came across that and I thought, this is going to be on rates and barrels. He's going to be that the coming week. And I came across that and I thought this is going to be on rates and barrels. This is, this is,

he's going to be that guy this week. And I just don't see enough there in the profile to, to, to trust him. And I, you know, I said earlier, I don't really trust the level of offense that the A's have had so far. It's not,

it's not great, but it's not bottom of the barrel, but that said, because they, they can do a little bit of damage, I need to see somebody who's at least got something in the profile that looks foreboding. Yeah. If you're going to strike guys out at a clip as low as Tommy Henry does, you better have a great walk rate and he doesn't. And you also have to have a good home run rate

and he doesn't. So I think Tommy Henry is more likely the kind of guy that when that start rolls around, I go over to DraftKings, and I stack A's hitters that night in a tournament and hope the A's go off and get really excited if they do. That, to me, is the more appropriate usage. So I know that the ratios relative to the league are not that bad for Tommy Henry, but the underlying numbers give me very little confidence. Ryan Nelson, who I just cut in our keeper league last night, also catches Oakland. I'm a little more optimistic about Nelson, but the fact that I just cut him in a 16-team keeper league where everyone needs pitching probably gives you an idea

that I'm not exactly thrilled about using Nelson, even in a spot where I feel like three weeks ago I would have been excited to use him. Yeah. And I'm with you. I mean, forced to start one of them. I would definitely prefer to start Nelson instead of Henry,

but I'm just, I'm also a little bit confused too by Nelson's profile this year, because I kind of saw him in the same category as a Tyler Wells. Who's not necessarily going to strike out a lot of guys, but gets a lot of pop ups. Could be really a good pitcher with whip. And he's been more of a ground ball pitcher so far this year. And so kind of his main source of appeal for me hasn't really been there. And the ratios aren't good either. So I'd avoid both, but again, forced to choose one, I would choose Nelson.

Yeah. Why I cut him, I mean, I think it was mostly that even if the ratios bounce back to the mid-fours ERA and the okay whip projections you'll see for him, the K rate being as low as it is doesn't seem fluky. He's just not getting enough swinging strikes. We saw that with him down the stretch last year. I bought it anyway. 8.2% swinging strike rate last year when he finished the season in Arizona.

8.3% so far through 36 innings this year. It appears to be just who he is right now. Maybe they can make a few adjustments. But I think the risk for Ryan Nelson is that he ends up in the bullpen. They may end up bringing up Dre Jameson or going a different direction with this spot. And then the role changes completely. So it's a harsh turn because I really wanted to like Ryan Nelson going into the season, had him a few different places. Brandon Bielek also gets a start against the A's.

So Brandon Bielek against the A's? Well, he's at the top of the list so far. He's your preferred option of the three? Absolutely. It's your preferred option of the three? Absolutely. It's rough. We've seen control problems from him during his time in the big leagues. The scouting report points to a guy with command and a pretty deep arsenal, and that's usually the ingredients for something that can work.

I have a lot of trust in the Astros, but Brandon Bielek really tests that in every possible way right now. So I'd prefer not to start him if I could help it. If you're desperate, I think Nelson is my preferred option over Bielek. I really do. I think Nelson's number one on my list if you have to start one of those three just to get through the upcoming week. So other pitchers to consider. Dean Kramer, another recent DVR drop in the aforementioned Keeper League.

Very tough matchups, but he does get a two-step. Pitched a little bit better since I let him go too, so you're welcome, everybody in deep leagues. Home against the Angels, road against the Jays.

I don't see it. I think the Orioles are a good organization as far as getting a lot of extra mileage out of starters like this, but I just ran out of patience with Kramer,

and these matchups scare me enough where even if I hadn't been frustrated with him, I'm not picking him up for this particular two step. Yeah. Two good starts, two starts with favorable matchups. I think there's enough there. A start against Oakland, there's enough there as opposed to the three that we just talked about. But yeah, bad matchups, I want no part of it. And you got Brad Keller also in this club at the Padres and then at the White Sox.

Tempting because those teams have underperformed, but also could be the elixir that gets those lineups going. Brad Keller's ratios are at odds with each other. A 431 ERA versus a 176 whip. The 431 ERA is kind of like league average. The 176 whip. The 431 ERA is kind of like league average. The 176 whip is awful. Which of those is telling us the truth about this version of Keller? I was previously excited about him because in Eno's model, Keller was showing two above average breaking balls. That's generally a really good thing that leads pitchers to success. It has not worked out so far for Keller.

I think that the ERA is probably the better indicator, which means that maybe there's going to be a time where he is going to be a viable streaming option when you've got some decent matchups, maybe even with these two matchups that he has. But yeah, the profile, if you look under the hood and you see that he's throwing first pitch strikes barely half the time and not getting chases, which is something that's been an issue for Keller in the past. That's going to lead to a lot of walks.

So I think probably the control issue for him is something that's fixable. And he's actually not getting a lot of swings on the end zone pitches either. So it's kind of the two sides of the coin, because if that persists, then that helps to bolster the strikeout rate. But I think he probably just is who he is, and whatever this control issue is gets better over time. But then he just goes back to being somebody you would very, very occasionally stream with really good matchups.

Yeah, I mean, the ERA is right in line with the career norms so far this year. It's that 176 whip that's surprising. Usually you get a 140s whip from Brad Keller. Just the fact that he's got 13, 19, he's got 24 walks in his last five starts. That's an automatic no. That's like he's doubled his walk rate compared to previous levels. I don't know why it's so bad. You almost wonder if he's tipping pitches or something and ending up in really bad counts because guys have just figured it out.

I don't know. Very strange. Let's move on to the closer corner where it appears Gregory Soto could emerge as a source of saves working in tandem with Craig Kimbrell. We talked earlier in the week about it and Sir Anthony Dominguez was a model play from Eno's side. The Soto angle is more comments from the manager in this case. Right. Do you trust that or what's your interest level in Soto given some of the uncertainty about how they may actually handle these situations while Jose Alvarado is down? Well, you know my interest because I put a bid on him in your league.

So and he went for three dollars, which was the bid that I made. But you said there were several people who had that. And for somebody who maybe is splitting saves, maybe in a short-term situation, I think it's hard to bid more than 3%. But going back to the management comments versus what the model might say, I think in this situation, I really, I trust Soto, if this is a longer-term situation, I would trust him to emerge as the biggest recipient of save chances for the Phillies. Because, you know, if you look at somebody like Dominguez and you've got a bullpen where he's clearly the most skilled reliever, then, you know, you just say, OK, over time, somebody's going to fail. He's going to step in. He's going to be good enough to keep the job.

I think Soto is just good enough to keep this job. I mean, even though Kimbrell has, I think he's the only Phillies reliever on the active roster as multiple saves so far, but Soto just the indicators for him are so much stronger than they are from Kimbrell. So I think if Soto is even in that mix and he gets some opportunities, you know that Kimbrell between all the walks and all the hard hit balls, there's going to be an implosion at some point. I don't worry about that to the same degree with Soto. He's got pretty solid numbers. So yeah, that's why I think he's worth like a 2% to 3% bid because just in the event that Alvarado's out for a long time,

I do think he's by far the best of those Phillies relievers. I think if we get news that Alvarado injury is more serious, then that number has to go up as far as interest in Soto goes. I think maybe you get a bargain if we don't get that bad news in these next couple of days. I think we do have to change our mindset about the closers and committees. This has been happening for a few years, but we're at the point now where if starting pitching is extremely difficult to find and ratios are up among the back-end starters, especially the guys that you really can't trust, they're as susceptible to a horrible blow-up as ever, throwing a third reliever, throwing a reliever that gets part-time save opportunities becomes really appealing. And we're seeing Yenier Cano getting some saves when Felix Bautista is not available.

I think he's got three now on the season. Cano is only 41% rostered on CBS. And I think what we're going to see over the course of the season is a greater number of fantasy managers being more than happy to take players like that. Or to take pieces of the Philadelphia committee. Or to take other members of the bullpen in Houston where Ryan Presley has been a little bit wobbly. Maybe even Jorge Lopez and some shallow leagues gets picked up, even though Joe on Duran is fantastic as a late inning option. I think we're going to see a greater collective willingness to lean into these players that are part-time closers because the saves categories going to be very bunched up anyway.

So you're going to see standings gains, standings gained points available, but also because you're just not finding enough quality starters to feel good about throwing seven starters out there most weeks. Yeah, no, that's an excellent point. And I have the same thoughts sometimes, but I have to admit when it comes to bidding, I still get cold feet committing to somebody like Cano who,

you know, unlike Soto where I think there's a real opportunity to break away. You know, it's probably a ticket Bautista injury for Cano to get more than, you know, maybe a save every other week, but that, that matters. That's still 13 saves and, you know, you'll take that with those ratios and those strikeouts. So I think that's something I need to keep in mind more when I'm,

I'm setting my bids. Right. The rest of season, a reliever that gives you a low two ZRA, maybe even a sub one whip and, I don't know, strikes out 35 or 40% of the batters he faces, that's pretty good. That actually could work really nice. And it's not going to be stressful every time you set a lineup and leave that great reliever in as opposed to trying to sneak in, I don't know, Brad Keller in a spot. Brad Keller against Oakland is the kind of thing that I'll still be tempted to do at some point, even though I'm not on the Brad Keller two-step for this week. Something to think about. If you're in a more shallow league and you see some very talented relievers out there that get part-time saves, you may be better off going a little more reliever heavy with that balance in your lineup. If your league doesn't split SPs and RPs, plenty of leagues do that.

And you know, that brings a whole bunch of other pitchers into the equation as well, depending on the categories that are being used. We are going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels on our way out the door. I just want to let everyone know you can get a subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month for the first year. Apologies if that changed after I said it was a dollar. I just saw that the other day. So $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. You can find Al on Twitter at almelkierbb. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. Be sure to check out Al's weekly waiver column. That is up on the site already. You can check out all the other great stuff we've got around the site as well. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Monday.