Rates & Barrels - Jasson Dominguez’s Arrival and Reds’ Waiver Pickups

Episode Date: September 1, 2023

DVR and Al discuss where they are looking to add several prospects who have made or are about to make their major league debuts, including Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells, Ceddanne Rafaela and Ronny Mauricio. They also look at how Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader might fare with their new teams and sort out a thin week for pitching on the waiver wire. Rundown 1:22 Jasson Dominguez and a bevy of prospect debuts 18:02 The other news, including players waived by the Angels 27:21 Other hitters to consider 31:38 Pitching developments 39:43 Streamers and two start-pitchers 49:14 Closer corner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Greats and Barrels, it's Friday, September 1st, Derek Van Ryper here with Al Melchior. On this episode we dig into recent promotions. Another wave of prospects has landed in the big leagues, including the Martian, Jason Dominguez. He is now part of the big league roster for the Yankees. We'll talk about those promotions. We'll talk about some waiver claims and where those players landed. Eno and I talked about the possibilities with the likes of Lucas Giolito and Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfro and Ronaldo Lopez.

We learned on Thursday where those players are going. Spoiler alert, Ohio. But we'll talk about their roles with their new clubs. Josh Donaldson is a brewer. We'll see if he actually gets up to the big league roster soon. But we got some other hitters to consider and, of course, our pitching segments as well. So plenty of ground to cover as we get ready for another busy weekend on the waiver wire perhaps one of the more robust weeks we have

remaining because of all of these moving parts especially if you're playing in a monolig get some players crossing over this late in the season that is pretty nice but i think the biggest story of the week now has to be to be Jason Dominguez getting the call from the Yankees. He's played really well in the second half of this season. Considering his age, I think the performance is even a notch above what we've seen so far. I mean, you look at what he did at AA, that's where he spent most of the season, 15 homers, 37 steals. The K rate was a little high at 25.6%, but he's 20 years old at double a putting those numbers together so you look at that in total it was a 117 wrc plus very good numbers for anyone

excellent numbers for a player that age and after nine games at triple a he's making the leap all the way to the big leagues now i like this this from the perspective of. See where he's at. Learn as much about Jason Dominguez. Against big league pitching in the final month. And know as the Yankees. If he's ready to go for opening day. Or if you need a stop gap. Before he's actually ready to take that position for good.

Speculating from a fantasy perspective. However. How interested are you in Jason Dominguez? Because the hype has always been. Like off the charts, top of the scale. The performance has always been very good with some lulls at times. But what do you think we're going to see right out of the chute against top-level pitching? I'm not really optimistic. So everything that you said, I would certainly agree with. I think most people would. What he's done has just been really encouraging for the age that he's been at each level. But for him to more or less leapfrog AAA at 20 and then spend the last month of the season in the major leagues.

the season in the major leagues. Yeah, I'm just not expecting that. Given that, the power output, let's start there. You also mentioned the strikeout rate too. So there's a couple of things where at AAA, you wouldn't expect those to translate very well to the major leagues. And those numbers as they were, were not really that impressive. So the thing that I think if you're going to try to pick up Dominguez over the the weekend it's in the hopes that he picks up some steals because that obviously uh could could translate so very encouraging for the long term i think like you said we'll learn more over the next month uh but in dynasty leagues it's not like he's any sort of uh you know well-kept secret so i don't know how much what we learned this this next month is necessarily going to make a difference even in dynasty leagues but in redraft he's a must-add in 15 teamers just for the steals potential and i did put in the

weekly waiver column that you could you know throw zero to one percent on him in a 12 team league if you've got the room just again to see how it all pans out yeah I think there's enough reason to believe that it could go right sooner than expected so even in a shallow league consider it I think you just want to be careful not to drop a reliable player to take the flyer in this case right it's fun to have the exciting shiny new toys on your roster I get that I always like to have young players on the roster that can maybe exceed expectations by a few miles. Just be careful in the more shallow formats in particular.

I think in a 15-team league where budgets have dwindled, if you had, let's say, $100 out of your original $1,000 left, you could probably justify spending as much as half, maybe even two-thirds of what you've got left on Dominguez, because after this weekend especially, it's a lot of single-digit bids to get things done from a fab perspective, so if you really think this is the last opportunity to get a player that might do a little bit of everything, I understand why you would want to go that route with Jason Dominguez. He's not the only young Yankee getting an opportunity right now. Austin Wells is coming up as well.

Probably more of a two-catcher league player, even for the immediate future beyond this year, too. I'm not sure we're looking at Austin Wells as a lock to be a high-volume catcher. So he has to hit enough to play in a corner. The upper-level performances have been kind of good but not great so i just wonder if he will have some adjustments that he has to make as well even though if he stays behind the plate long term there's a chance he ends up being a nice option in deeper formats down the road yeah or or in the present i did uh write about him this week as well, and I recommended him for two catcher leagues right now.

I do agree. I mean, maybe he's not going to rise much above that. But one thing that I like, and if I have a moment here, DVR, I want to kind of check my memory here, go to Fangraphs and kind of fact check myself, because my recollection was when Gary Sanchez was coming up through the Yankee system,

he didn't put up great power numbers in the upper minors, but then did pretty much right away, as I recall, with the Yankees. And Wells is a hitter who he's a left-handed hitter. He's got very strong flyball tendencies. So I could see him as somebody who, at least in the home stands, puts up some nice numbers. And again, there's questions about playing time, some questions about what else he can contribute. But I do think that he could be enough of a power source to be a number two catcher right now. In a 15-team league, I could see it.

I think in anything smaller than that, it might be a little bit tricky in the short term. Projections on Austin Wells have a 225-296- 380 line for the rest of the season I wouldn't be surprised if he came in a tick above that by WRC plus that puts him like 40th among catchers I think he's probably a little bit better than that there's a handful of guys ahead of him that will definitely play less than Austin Wells will so that's probably what nudges him up into that that two catcher radar for those 15 team. Everson Pereira was already up. Oswald Peraza already up.

So this Yankees team getting a lot younger here at the end of the season. Earlier in the week, we discussed Sedan Rafaela on Project Prospect, a really interesting player because he can play center field and shortstop. So being able to defend well at two positions up the middle should make the playing time floor really safe. We learned this week that Jaron Duran is having season-ending surgery on his toe. So what do you think Sadan Raffaella's role is going to look like here over this final month? Well, like you said, you would think because of the versatility that there could be a great deal of playing time. But he's started just one of three games so far since getting called up.

So it's a little bit confusing to me, to be honest. I still think that there's the potential for Rafaela to, first of all, make some starts against right handers, which he hasn't done yet. But it is a bit of, even with Duran out, it is a little bit of a crowded roster. So my hope is that he'll play a little bit more than he has so far. But I also would not be bidding this weekend, assuming that that's going to be the case.

I would, even if 15-teamers go pretty light. So you see him as more of a contingency option behind someone like Dominguez as opposed to like a 1A, 1B sort of player at the present time? I would, even though the minor league number suggests that Rafael is probably more ready at this point to contribute at the major league level, but I have enough doubts about the playing time that, yeah, I would make him contingent behind Dominguez or Mauricio, who we're going to talk about. Yeah, so what it does, I mean, there's the log jam because Luis Arias and Trevor Story are healthy right now as options at second and short.

Plus, Adam Duvall is out there. Rafael is a righty, so it's not like there's a platoon fit because all of those other guys that play up in the middle for the Red Sox, they're all right-handed hitters as well. So that's the complicating factor as it stands right now. If someone gets hurt, then everything changes. But I think this is a little more of a semi-regular role, even though Rafaela looks like a player that can help in a lot of categories. It sounds like you're a little more optimistic about the role of Ronnie Mauricio. It sounds like you're a little more optimistic about the role of Ronnie Mauricio. And Ronnie Mauricio, I think, has an approach that's going to be interesting to watch against big league pitching. It's a question of whether what he did in the minors will work against major league pitching.

Can he be as aggressive as he's been, not take walks and hit pitches around the edges of the zone and be as effective as he was as a hitter. He went 2020 last year at AA as a 21-year-old. He did it again this year as a 22-year-old at AAA. So really good results, has lots of ways to contribute. Is this even kind of like the best of both worlds where you get some of the tantalizing categorical upside that Dominguez offers and you get it with a guy that should be able to help right away with a safer role than what Rafael is going to have?

Yeah, I think that's a great way to put it. I definitely would be more aggressive in going after Mauricio this weekend. There's a clear role for him. I mean, even though he came up as a short stop, he's played a good deal of left field this year and there's a gaping hole in left field with the Mets. No offense to Rafael Ortega, but he's just not really gotten it done and you wouldn't necessarily view him as a roadblock to a top prospect. So I think there's a lot of playing time to be had there for Mauricio. And as you pointed out, the results this year, AAA Syracuse has been very good and good across the board. So I think if there's a minus for me, it's just that the Mets lineup is not very good at this point. And especially if he's not hitting

pretty high up in that batting order, I don't know how much run production there's going to be. And I don't know how much that might just sap his overall production, but I do like his situation and his place in the career arc right now better than Dominguez. Yeah, I think that Mets lineup is all right. It might even be a little better than average the rest of the way if a few things break their way. It's a big if.

I like Francisco Alvarez. I wonder if he is wearing down with the heavy workload he's had behind the plate this year. Pete Alonso, of course, didn't get traded at the deadline. He's still there. Lindor's still there. They brought back Brett Beatty, too. I think that's probably the other thing between Nimmo Alonso and Lindor being healthy, and then you bring up all the young guys to play together. You can see it maybe being a thing where they feed off each other a little bit, build some momentum for next season. I think that's probably the hope internally, at least,

for those Mets bats. Are you interested in going back to the well with Brett Beatty? It's not a first-time promotion, but he played really well at AAA. 10 homers in 26 games. He was among the players discussed on Tuesday that I said I liked a lot going into next season. If he comes up and mashes in September, I'm sure more people will be on board. But do you think it can happen where he puts together that final month of the season that I was hoping for earlier in the year? It certainly could happen. I'm sort of lukewarm on Beatty just because we've seen a good sample of major league plate appearances at this point. And I don't know that he'll be putting it together this season. As you were setting that up,

I was thinking, you know, who like, who am I going to put the bigger bid on this weekend, Beatty or Carter Keboom? And I think I might actually go with Keboom who is getting some pretty regular playing time and doing pretty well with it so far. So,

but it's, some pretty regular playing time and doing pretty well with it so far. But I think that's a pretty good comp right now in terms of at least my level of interest. That's interesting. Yeah, Carter Keboom is back. It's been a long road for him just to get healthy and take on a spot for the Nationals. And it feels like we've been talking about him for years. And we have. He broke in in 2019, but he's still going to turn 26 this weekend. So he's still relatively young.

I think my ongoing concern with Carter Keboom comes back to the quality of contact he's making. I know he's popped three homers in eight games this year for the Nats, so he's running hot right now. And it's a good story. But you look at the underlying numbers throughout his time in the big leagues over parts of four seasons, it's a barrel rate under 5%. The hard hit rate isn't really good. It's not one of those situations where you look and say, oh, the hard hit rate's good, and he hits the ball on the ground too much. It's just he doesn't hit the ball hard, or at least he hasn't to this point.

So for me, the thing I kept gravitating toward with Beatty and other players that I was trying to target for later was the ability to make that hard contact. Even with Beatty's struggles earlier this year, it was a 43.9% hard hit rate, 7.1% barrel rate. You walk a little bit. The strikeout rate wasn't disgusting, 27.7%. That's fine for a first-time, everyday or near-everyday sort of player. So I kind of just want Brett Beatty to lift the ball more, which has been a problem for him in the minors too, right? That's a longer term concern for Beatty. He's not one of those players that got to the big leagues and started hitting the ball

on the ground more. He's consistently struggled with that for many of his stops as a pro. So I think I'm flipped from you on the Beatty-Keeboom thing, but the appeal of Keeboom would be plenty of playing time. There's no reason for the Nats to hold back. So I think if you're looking at one, you're at least putting the other on your bid list for some depth purposes, probably at third base. But you would hope the Mets just let it fly with Brett Beatty over the final weeks of the season. A couple other guys that got promoted. Alexander Canario is in the big leagues now for the Cubs. He's been hurt for most of this

year at triple a big time power i was looking at the rotowire player outlook on his player page over there the comp they dropped on him was fran mil reyes where it's just big big time power and it might be enough to carry him this to me looks more like a part-time role for canario given the lack of playing time available for the Cubs, but good exposure for him, maybe someone that adds some thump off the bench. Am I wrong to be limiting my interest only to NL only leagues or keeper in dynasty formats where I might be able to pick him up and stash him away cheaply for next year? I think that's pretty close. I'll definitely be looking, seeing where he fits in this weekend in my 15 teamers, because he did. He was scorching hot right before the call up.

It was kind of an interesting trend that I pointed out in the column because his plate discipline just, you know, was terrible in this final stretch. But but he hit with a ton of power. So I don't know if there was a change in approach that was kind of a net positive for him or just small sample weirdness. But I think that there's at least the possibility can shift Candelario to third and open up DH for Canario and I have to be careful not to say Canario when I mean Candelario or vice versa but you know there's the path I do see a path there but it is tenuous so he's not on the level of you know the Yankees prospects or Mauricio as far as I'm concerned in terms of level of interest, but some interesting possibilities there. Yeah, I think he's definitely a few notches below most of this group. He'll probably play less than Rafaela because of the defensive limitations, so keep that in mind as you think about this group as a whole. The Cubs also have a pitcher

going right now. Jordan Wicks is going to start game one of their doubleheader against the Reds on Friday, so we'll have results from that before anybody gets a chance to hear this podcast. So it could be Wicks, could even be Shane Green possibly sticking around in the back of that rotation while they try to get Marcus Stroman back in the weeks ahead. So keep Wicks in mind when we get to our pitcher section here in just a bit. But I think the Canario question would be Canario versus Hunter Goodman, who's breaking through in Colorado a bit. But I think the Canario question would be Canario versus Hunter Goodman, who's breaking through in Colorado right now. And I get the sense that Goodman's got a clearer path to playing time, given that the Rockies are looking to the future and the Cubs

are trying to win a division. Yeah, no doubt about that. Like I said, that path for playing time for Canario, it's a little bit muddled whereas Goodman you know who's gonna take the playing time away from him and and certainly as well as he he hit in a very brief time in AAA and as well as he's hitting so far uh no reason to doubt the playing time for him and then of course yeah Coors Field so a little bit more appeal there for Goodman yeah it might be some downside in that batting average category in particular when he's on the road, but home park, as we've learned over the years, will tend to iron a lot of that out. Goodman playing first base on a regular basis since Sunday for the Rockies, so we'll keep an eye on that playing time, but he looks like a nice potential power boost if you need some help on the corner. on the corner let's talk about the players that changed teams over the course of the week thanks to mostly the los angeles angels of anaheim letting a bunch of players go to save some money lucas giolito gets a fresh start in cleveland al we talked about some of his struggles earlier in

the week i don't know if we mentioned it at the time but the schedule which did come up back when they traded for him the schedule was brutal look at the matchups that luc schedule, which did come up back when they traded for him, the schedule was brutal. Look at the matchups that Lucas Giolito had during his six starts as a member of the Angels. He had the Jays on the road, the Braves on the road, the Giants at home, the Rangers on the road, the Reds at home, and the Phillies on the road. Nothing really easy in that entire group. I mean, the Giants kind of stand out as the one that may be okay. That shouldn't be too bad, but it was an ERA near seven. It was a whip close to 1.5. That was from a guy that had a really nice track record in recent years, even looking like

a fantasy ace for a little while a few years back. Prior to the trade to Anaheim, Gilito had a 379 ERA and a 122 whip over 21 starts. Now he's back in the AL Central again. We've seen Cleveland have a lot of success with pitching development over the years. Do you sort of just push him back toward the expectations we had when he was still a member of the White Sox? Is that a reasonable adjustment to make, even though the last stretch has been so bad for Gialito? Yeah, I think so. Because if you break down the peripherals versus the portion of the year that he spent with the White Sox and the very brief portion that he spent with the Angels, the thing that

really stands out is all the home runs that he gave up. And some of that you can chalk up to that schedule for sure. Some of it I just think is maybe,'s it feels weird to say bad luck with home runs because it's you know it's not like a dribbler through the gap. I mean it's you know to some extent if you're giving up a home run you've made a bad pitch but I just think that you know a home run per nine verging on three seems like a little bit of overkill and probably not fully deserved. So home runs were already a risk with him even before he went to Anaheim. So I think that, yeah, that's a good reset, you know,

back to what our expectations were with him earlier this season with the White Sox where you figure you're going to have some inconsistency. Home runs could be a problem in some of his remaining starts, but there's upside there. Yeah, I think the thing that stands out to me is that for the season as a whole, Giolito's fastball velocity is in line with previous levels, still down a little bit from where it was at his peak, but it's not like he lost another tick off his fastball. So I think there's some bounce back potential here. He has thrown that slider a little bit more.

his fastball, so I think there's some bounce-back potential here. He is throwing that slider a little bit more. The rest of season projections point to more of a low-fours ERA and an acceptable low-one-twos sort of whip. I think that's fine. As long as you're getting strikeouts, he should get strikeouts. And easier matchups, of course, being back in the AL Central, all good things. So I think I'm in on Giolito. If there's a shallow league where he was dropped,

I know it's only a handful of leagues where that might be the case, or if I was rostering him and had him on my bench, I'm pretty comfortable starting to push him back into my active lineup for a few turns because I think he can right the ship a bit here in the final month. The Guardians also ended up with Ronaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. Not what we were really hoping for in terms of those guys possibly landing in a situation to get saves with Emmanuel Class A. It's just sort of like, well, hopefully you're in a league that rewards holds if you want to roster Lopez and more.

But it certainly makes the Cleveland bullpen a lot deeper, getting both of those guys. They try to close down that five-game gap in the AL Central. The Giolito arrival comes soon after the release of Noah Sindergaard. The Giolito arrival comes soon after the release of Noah Sindergaard. So part of the question we had about the Guardians was how are they going to get through the end of the season with a relatively young rotation. Giolito helps them in that regard. They're going to let him eat innings even if he struggles. So I think you've got that kind of in your back pocket too. There will be bulk for Lucas Giolito with the Guardians.

We were speculating on the show on Wednesday that the Reds would be in the market for a center fielder, Harrison Bader in particular, and that actually happened. Harrison Bader lands in Cincinnati. They added Hunter Renfro as well. So I don't think Eno and I were expecting them to get two outfielders, even though you can certainly understand why they would have claimed two outfielders. The park boosts power.

We know that about Great American Ballpark. It's always been that way. So I think it helps mask Harrison Bader's biggest flaw in his offensive profile. And it gives Hunter Renfro a shot at a pretty big September. But when you think about Jake Fraley coming off the IL on Friday, Nick Martini, who I mentioned last week, and has homered twice and looked really good in the time since playing, I think, every day.

Those guys plus TJ Friedel plus Will Benson. The roster is really crowded. Maybe one of those outfielders is going down after this doubleheader on Friday. How does the playing time shake out with all the outfielders the Reds currently have at their disposal after adding Bader and Renfro. Yeah, that's a really good question because every discussion about the Reds, usually in the context of prospects and not players being picked up off of waivers, is where does everybody fit? And so I realize they've got several injuries, although those are primarily in the infield. got several injuries although those are primarily in the in the infield uh but still that you know it means that you're seeing uh incarnacion strand playing more at first base uh spencer steer and back in the infield more so they've got the the versatile moving parts to make room for everybody

but it's still i i'm not sure where the full-time playing time comes for either bader or renfro um yeah i'm sure yeah if you reeled this back to April, you wouldn't necessarily be fearing Bader getting the lesser part of a platoon with TJ Friedel, but here we are. I think that's actually a very likely scenario. It may just be part-time roles for both of those guys. Yeah, it's really hard to say because I think Friedel's done enough well offensively to justify at least the larger side of the platoon. Bader being a righty could end up on the small side and they could just use Bader as a late inning defensive replacement on the days that Friedel starts. That could be the script the rest of the way. And with Renfro, we know he's mashed lefties throughout his career.

The questions about him and what sinks his overall production sometimes is what he struggles to do against same-handed pitching. So you could look at Renfro maybe as more of a soft platoon, being on the small side with someone like a Jake Fraley or even a Will Benson, depending on who stays on this roster. It's really pretty messy right now. So as much as the park helps them, the roles I think are a little lighter than you might want. So better news in NL only leagues where both of those guys come over from the AL and they're going to play a lot more than most of the guys on the waiver wire in those deeper mono leagues. But in mixed leagues in particular,

I think it could be a really touch and go situation as far as how their roles go. You're going to want to keep a close eye on the upcoming matchups before committing to them in weekly formats. But a nice boost for the Reds, to say the least. I was a little underwhelmed when I saw that the Brewers signed Josh Donaldson to a minor league deal. Could be worse. It's a minor league deal. I think part of that just comes back to the reports and the grumblings that Josh Donaldson is not always a popular person in a clubhouse. So I just kind of wonder, like, okay, if he's not really a good hitter anymore and there are concerns about how he fits into a clubhouse, why bring him in in September?

Some of that comes down to Andrew Monasterio, who we've talked about in this show, cooling off in a pretty big way. some of that comes down to Andrew Monasterio. We've talked about in this show, cooling off in a pretty big way. Brian Anderson, after a fast start, hasn't really been as much of an upgrade into that corner infield and outfield mix as I would have hoped coming into the season. Do you think Donaldson has anything left in the tank though, Al?

I just think he's looked kind of done, even though the barrel rates have been consistently good throughout this season. It's just been 120 plate appearances. So it's almost like this all-or-nothing sort of right-handed bat now. That's a really weird player to put on this roster, potentially, if they call him up. Yeah, I agree. And maybe it's just insurance policy in depth for the Brewers.

I agree. It was sort of a perplexing move for them to make. in depth for the Brewers. I agree it was a sort of a perplexing move for them to make. But like you said, Monasterio has not been hitting as well as he was just a few weeks ago. So maybe he's not on that long of a leash. But to answer your question, is there anything left of the tank? I was going to point out the very thing that you just did point out, which is that the barrel rate still looks pretty good. I think there's still some raw power there for Donaldson, and maybe that's enough for him to be an upgrade, at least offensively, over Monasterio.

But I honestly don't see really even making contingent bids on Donaldson this weekend in 15-teamers. No, I think he has to be added to the roster before that happens, and you'd want to even see for a few series, is he a part-time player? Is he actually going to get a shot at taking over an everyday role at third base? I think if he gets the call, it's more the former than the latter. Unclaimed players from Wavers, Mike Clevenger and Randall Gritchick stink. Put with the White Sox and Angels, respectively.

Other hitters to consider, Michael Brantley is back. That's a pretty big news item. The Astros have him in the middle third of their order. I think he's hit sixth in his first couple of games back. And if he's getting regular playing time or even near regular playing time, I think he's in the conversation to be a useful late season pickups in leagues that require five outfielders. I mean, I know it's like the polar opposite of looking at Jason Dominguez as far as like what you're hoping for, but Brantley is like all floor so long as he's healthy. Yeah. And to have a pretty prominent spot in that Astros lineup. And we talked a bit earlier

in the season about maybe they're not a team to fear anymore. And I think that we can move on from, from that discussion. It's now, you know, I think very much a lineup that you, you worry about. And if you're inserted into the middle of the lineup, that's, that's a plus. So yeah, no, I agree. I think he, he does belong in five outfielder leagues and also somebody that I think you look at, look at for categorical help in terms of run production and batting average. It's been a while since he's been a power or speed source.

Can I interest you in Davis Schneider, who is now playing on a regular basis for the Blue Jays with Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman both getting hurt this week. Lots of barrels. Interesting profile in that he walks a ton, strikes out a little more than you might like, although his numbers at AAA were an improvement over his previous norms. 21 homers and 9 steals in 87 games earlier this year with Buffalo, and a

42.5% hard hit rate underneath all that, so he hits a ton of fly balls, he can steal some bases, he's on fire right now, and it looks like the Blue Jays sort of have to play him on a regular basis for at least the next week or so. Where do we go from here with David Schneider? I think tentatively. And, you know, you pointed out the strikeout rates.

But one thing really popped for me when I was looking over his stats and working on the column. He's got a CSW that's almost 35%, which is obscenely high. So there is a lot of swing and miss and sit and miss there in his profile so far. There is the power production, but there's not really a ton of raw power. I think it's making that venue and making his batted ball profile work for him, but he's got a very average exit velocity on flies and liners. So I think that the floor for Schneider is pretty low and he's hot right now.

So they called him up, he was really hot and then he cooled off really quickly and now he's playing regularly again and he's hot again. But I just think by the time Matt Chapman comes back, he could very well have cycled out of the hot streak. And it's not clear exactly how long Chapman's going to be out either. So if you do pick up Schneider, I think you have to be prepared that maybe you're only using him for this coming week. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's a very, very short-term ad and plenty of ways it could unravel quickly. But Davis Schneider taking advantage of the opportunity here over the last few days. I saw Colton Couser is coming back up for the Orioles. Roster expansion happens on September 1st, so with more room to play with on the roster,

you're going to see a bunch of guys come up that we've probably seen at some point earlier in the year. Is there any reason to think Couser is going to play enough to make a dent in more than AL-only leagues during the final month? I would not anticipate that. Again, that's another crowded roster. Orioles just taking advantage of adding a little depth with roster expansion. So yeah, he's rates pretty low of all the players that we've talked about so far. I really don't have much of an expectation that he's going to play more than in a part-time role. Yeah, the only concern I really get about Couser, aside from playing time,

is that even with that return to AAA, he was striking out almost 35% of the time in 13 games he spent back at AAA Norfolk. But I think it's really going to be more of a 2024 player to consider as it goes with Colton Couser. I think there's still a lot of things he can do well. Curious to see if they make some moves in the offseason, though, to shift some of those position player depth pieces to a club that has pitching excess.

That's been something we've wondered about for a long time for this Orioles club. Let's move on to some pitching, and I'll start with some news that is bumming me out. Ryan Pepeo has been optioned back to AAA. I was looking at the schedule. The Dodgers need a fifth starter next weekend. And based on the timing of this demotion,

I don't think Pepeo would be eligible to come back unless he replaces an injured player to be that option. So the improved control is not necessarily keeping Pepeo on the roster for all of September. So unfortunately, if you picked him up, you may have to drop him again this weekend. And be prepared to pick him up again later if he gets another spot start or two before the season is through. But the other sort of semi-related factor here, Walker Buehler is starting a rehab assignment on Sunday. It's only supposed to be one to two innings,

so it's likely he's going to need a few turns rehabbing before he's back in the mix it's not a one for one Buehler's coming back Pepeo's down sort of thing but that's another potential hurdle for Pepeo that could be there at the end of the month that's not there right now so good news for Walker Buehler overall some bad news for Ryan Pepeo despite the improved skills that we discussed a bit on last week's show. How about John Means finally getting back to the big leagues? Good for him getting back from Tommy John surgery. We've seen the Orioles shift Tyler Wells into a bullpen role at AAA.

In my mind, that seems like a good thing for Means' role. So what's your interest level in John Means given our dire need for pitching, especially in deeper formats? Well, at least initially it is going to be restricted to 15 team leagues. But what you mentioned about Tyler Wells, that for me is huge because the last time that we talked about Means and his return being imminent was I wasn't clear on what the deal was going to be with Tyler Wells because initially it looked like they were stretching him out, but then they changed course. And like you said, when and if he comes up, it'll be as a reliever. So that does seem to clear the path because they'll either, I would think, go with the six-man rotation or maybe just replace Cole Irvin with

Means. And I definitely want to see him one or two times through, which I realize doesn't leave a whole lot because there's only four weeks left to the season. But I still, I just don't want to go all in not in a 12 teamer or in a 15 teamer. I don't want to go overboard with a little bit of my remaining fab to add means, even though he might, you know,

it might be a real difference maker down the stretch. I want to see him at least one time through. I think I'm going to go sight unseen in a lot of leagues because I'm not going to have that ability to wait it out. I think part of the thing that I like better too with John Means this time around, the new dimensions at Orioles Park. That's changed since we saw him extensively. He pitched eight innings in 2022 before he got hurt.

But I think the results on the rehab assignment have also been very good. Starts at four, four and a third, and five innings. Last time out was five innings against Worcester, six Ks, one hit, no runs. Really nice outing from him. So I think this is a big boost for the Orioles. They need some help in the middle of that rotation, and Means could be the absolute perfect fit for them at just the right time. So 15 team leagues for sure, but even 12 team leagues, the ratios he was putting up, even

when that ballpark was more hitter friendly, were very impressive. And team context is a lot better for John Means now than it was a couple seasons ago when he broke through. Mason Miller is still kind of interesting as far as the stash goes, but it sounds like he's making one more rehab start before rejoining the A's rotation. Really, to me, Mason Miller is just the ultimate high risk, high reward guy for the final three or so weeks of the season because we know what he can do in terms of stuff. He almost breaks the pitching model with the arsenal. It's just the question of how much they'll let him go in starts over these final handful of turns.

Right. And given that he's not pitched very deep into his rehab starts, it made me wonder if he would come back as a starter for these last few weeks. So there's definitely some risk in that regard. But also thinking about Kyle Harrison, who I was convinced was never going to get past the fifth inning. And I think it was the first start out, went six deep and pitched really well. So maybe Miller will surprise us. But yeah, I don't think that's a very safe bet to count on him giving you even five innings when he does come up. It's fun to throw an opener in front of them if they're going to do that. I genuinely have no idea how much they want to throw Mason Miller. I know you got to be careful, but you also have to pitch him enough so that way you can let him be a starter in some capacity next year.

We'll see where they land on that, but I'm intrigued by the skills. I just think it's hard to stash guys at this time of year with so many injured players on rosters and so many guys having playing time shares shifting around as rosters get a little bit bigger. What do you think about Darius Vines? Really nice debut for him at Coors Field against the Rockies. He may get two starts this week, too, and both would be at home if he sticks in that rotation. It'd be the Cardinals for the first one, Pirates for the second one. I looked at the pitching model just to see what it spit out, and it probably doesn't work for the first start because it was in Colorado. I think I saw like an 11 on one of Darius Vines' pitches,

which I've never seen from the pitching model before. It's kind of like when you get the radar gun out and it spits out a 120, and you're like okay that's that that didn't happen so let's just take a step back and my only track record for darius vines is pretty good you won't find him on any top 100 prospect list but he's also he's not a non-prospect the change upgrades out really well the big questions were really around his fastball rather than his command as far as what the scouting grades point to do Do you take a chance on this profile given how good the team is and given the results he's been able to put up

with a lot of good swinging strike rates throughout his time in the minor leagues? Well, I won't. He's, like you said, a two-start pitcher. I don't really love the Cardinals matchup. And like you said, the fastball is, I think in the first start, it was right around 90 in the minors. It's been, you know, 90, 91. So the secondary stuff does, does great out really well, but I wouldn't anticipate strikeouts. I wouldn't anticipate a performance like he had in Colorado. I mean, I think that's just one of those kind of fluky things. And he did have decent strikeout rates up until he got to AAA and missed about half the season too. So, I mean, there's just a lot of variables there. But it just feels like a risky move right now, especially now when you're in leagues where it matters.

You're playing to either secure a title or move up, And that's a dangerous two-step. All right. So you're putting this more in the Hail Mary group than the, let's try and go get him. It's just, I need innings. So he's one of those guys that might give me a lot of innings this week. Pedro Avila in San Diego is one of those guys that I'm looking at where the skills are somewhat intriguing,

but I see him as more of a deep league bulk guy. The team context isn't as good as Vines' team context. I think it's very similar for me. I'm curious if you have a different read on what Pedro Avila might bring. No, I'd say pretty similar. It's just I admit I'd sort of slept on him for a couple of weeks because I saw he was getting plugged in there as the fifth starter and just seemed like a situation where, okay, you know, there's not Ryan Weathers there anymore and they're

kind of thin on starting pitching. But yeah, the skills are kind of intriguing. And the start that he had on Thursday night, the results weren't really good, but I think it was only one actual earned run that he gave up in that outing. So even there, it wasn't as bad as it looked. So it's 15-team appeal for Avila. But whereas previously I was kind of ignoring him and thinking of him as like a monolig guy, I do think there's more there. Yeah, I think it's really deep mixed leagues for me, for Pedro Avila. This is a tough week for some of the two-star pitchers that are actually available.

I saw Luis Medina could get two as he comes off the IL soon. It'd be tough, though. It'd be the Jays at home, even though it's without Bichette and Chapman, and at Texas if you were to make both of those turns. So that was a two-step that I didn't really have a lot of interest in. Rich Hill gets two turns. I always feel like workload-wise, you might get one and a half starts out of Rich Hill. Plus, it's home against the Phillies and road against the Astros,

so I wasn't really excited about picking him up for those opportunities. Luis Ortiz, even though he hasn't been the same guy that we saw last year from a stuff perspective, home against the Brewers, road against the Braves. That's not a combo you necessarily want because of that second start being so tough. So I found it really difficult to land on widely available two-start pitchers that I actually like. And I think Jesse Scholten gets another mention on the pod

because this week's two-step is a tour of the AL Central with road matchups against the Royals and Tigers. I think I'll give up some skills in this case and take a chance on the Sculptons maybe giving us 10 plus innings over those two turns. Yeah, I think out of this group he's definitely the

most attractive or least scary of the bunch. So, you know, probably like if it were between him and Vines I think I might actually go with Vines. So, you know, because at least, like you say, they like if it were between him and Vines, I think I might actually go with Vines. So, you know, cause at least like you say, they're both kind of Hail Mary bulk inning moves for the week, but Vines obviously pitching for the much better team.

And he does have that good result in Colorado that you figure somehow maybe he'll replicate. So that's kind of the level where I put him. And yeah, I had a hard time finding deeper league to start pitchers for the column this week. So I had three that were kind of like on the fringes of availability in 12-teamers, like Kyle Hendricks, I know was one.

So kind of that level. But yeah, you go any deeper. And I just, I think I'd rather, and again, if you're playing for something right now, I've already gotten burned once in the last couple of weeks, like getting cute with two star pitchers. So I'd rather go with one from somebody that I feel pretty confident in than crossing my fingers with the Skulltons. Yeah, it's a tough, tough week out there if you're

looking for volume the other option you could consider is taj bradley it's unconfirmed but the raise schedule has put them back in a position to need a fifth starter again and that fifth starter would potentially be a two-start pitcher bradley last pitched on the 27th of august at triple-a durham so if he doesn't start by Sunday, that might be the indication, even failing an announcement, that he's going to come up and possibly take those turns. Bradley's pitched a little bit better recently with the Bulls. Last four starts, a 137 ERA, a 112 whip. Is Taj Bradley finally rounding into form? And in what situations are you willing to speculate if we don't get confirmation? Let's say he doesn't pitch this weekend. So you got the

first part of that checked off. But if you don't know for sure that he's actually going to even get called up, what do you do? And what leagues would you be interested in trying to stash him away? Definitely 15 team and deeper. And it's situational, too, because if you're 15-team league, you're pretty well set for pitching. I feel like that's a risk of a roster spot that's not really worth taking. streaming side, just one-start pitchers, two kind of stood out. Andre Jackson, who's now pitching for the Pirates, gets a home start against the Brewers after being really just an extra pitcher for the Dodgers for the last couple of years.

Getting a regular opportunity every fifth day. Pitched really well as a starter, as high as AA two years ago, so I think the stuff is actually decent. Opportunity is pretty clear, and the Brewers, even with all the changes they've tried to make to this offense, still a below average offense. So I think if you're in a deep

league looking for someone that could sneak in a win, probably won't have the ratios go completely sideways. I think Andre Jackson actually fits that bill. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I like that. The Brewers I do consider to be a pretty favorable matchup. And the one concern back to when he was with the Dodgers and in their system that I had with Jackson was as a fly ball pitcher, home runs perhaps being an issue. And that's not something I'm going to worry about in this start. walk rate way down. If that skill holds, that's going to go a long way. Lots of swinging strikes throughout his time in the Dodgers organization and the ability to miss some bats as a result of that too. So keeping a really close eye on the matchups for Jackson week to week. Throws 95 too, so it's not like he's like a soft tossing junk ball sort of pitcher. There's a pretty electric fastball there for an unheralded starter. I mentioned Jordan Wicks a little bit earlier. It will help getting a chance to see him pitch again on Friday to get

those results in. What do you think about Wicks? If he sticks in the Cubs rotation, he does not throw particularly hard. He's got a pretty deep pitch mix. It's fastball, change, cutter, curveball, even occasional slider. So really could be five pitches there. Do you think Wicks is good enough to consistently get big league hitters out and help us in some mid-range mixed leagues down the stretch? I think he's matchup dependent. There's enough there. Like you said, the arsenal is solid. I think there's a little bit more potential there for strikeouts than with, say, Darius Vines. But yeah, he does kind of fall in that mid-range, a guy that you would stream with favorable matchups.

But also maybe somebody that doesn't stick on your roster when there's somebody you want to pick up. And you did pick him up this weekend. I wouldn't be taking it as a given that he's still there on the final week. Yeah, a little more week to week. Other interesting pitcher, Slade Ciccone is at the Cubs. It's fastball, slider, occasional curveball, and splitter. He's gone five, I think, in each of his last two appearances for the D-backs. We're hoping Ryan Nelson and Dre Jamison would be the guys that emerged to lock down those roles for the Diamondbacks earlier this season.

But Ciccone was the 33rd overall pick back in 2020, so it's not like he's an uninteresting prospect. what you think about Ciccone as a guy that hasn't missed a ton of bats just yet, but might actually have a little more there than the initial numbers suggest. We've talked about the Diamondbacks pitching prospects throughout the season dealing with AA Amarillo, AAA Reno, and how it's really hard to rely on the results you get there because pitches don't move the same way in those places. Those are very hitter friendly environments that make it difficult to get good results.

And at least at those stops, Ciccone was right around a strikeout per inning over the past two seasons. Yeah. No, I think there, I looked at the diamond back schedule all the way through, but it's definitely a matchup based situation for him. And the Cubs right now are a team that I fear a little bit for pitcher matchups.

So he does not make the grade for me with that matchup. Yeah, Cubs averaging over five runs per game. They've only won of six teams in the league that have done that all season. So there's your reason to be a little careful with the Cubs. Unless your ratios are already blown up and you're just looking for someone who's got a start that's actually available in some deeper leagues trivia question for al who does wade miley pitch against this week uh i this is a major fail you know given that i've got him i don't think in every league but i've got him in a lot of leagues and i cannot answer that question off of the top of my head so i'm cheating and seeing that he's got uh the yanke in Yankee Stadium. Yes, so are you using him in that spot,

given that it's the young Yankees, and it's a hitter-friendly environment, so there's always risk, but what's the plan for Wade Miley in your typical 15-team league this week with that matchup? I trusted Wade Miley, so I wouldn't say it's a situation where I'm just going to blindly put him,

or in my case, keep him in the active rotation. But I do need to look at my alternatives because, like you said, Yankee Stadium, that's a dangerous venue. But I tend to think that I will be keeping Wade Miley active this week. Al needs to meet Wade Miley someday or interview him on a podcast or something. It just has to happen. Although I found it interesting. I think it was maybe, I don't know, a week or two ago. They had a clip from a pregame for the Brewers.

Everybody's on the field just loosening up. And Wade Miley was out there talking to Corbin Burns and Brandon Woodruff. And Miley was doing the talking and instructing. So there could be some future pitching coach roles out there for Wade Miley. It's just interesting because he's been around for a long time. He's had success. He's had some stretches of failure. So he seems like a pretty well-liked guy in that Milwaukee clubhouse.

And that's probably a big part of why he's still hanging around at this stage of his career as well. I think I would actually throw him in a 15-team league this week. I'm at least looking carefully at my alternatives, but I think you could probably get away with it just given the Yankees are not quite the Yankees right now. At least one closer note to pass along, of course, Felix Bautista leaving an outing last weekend. That was the day we recorded our episode going into the weekend.

So there's a good chance that Yenir Cano has already been scooped up in many competitive leagues. Maybe there's some eight or ten team leagues where you could still go out and get him because he's, skills-wise, not on the same level as Felix Bautista. Nobody really is. But do you trust that Cano is sort of a one-for-one replacement for Bautista? I think it was Daniel Cologne that got the save the night that Bautista left with one pitch to go. But is Cano the primary closer for you with the Orioles the rest of the way?

Yeah, yeah. I do trust that he is going to be the primary closer. So in that sense, I think it's a one-for-one swap. Where I thought you were going with the question was in terms of fantasy value. And I don't think it's a one-for-one swap if you are still able to get Cano and you've lost Batiste. You are getting something of a downgrade, as great of a season as Cano has had up to this point. But again, that's an extremely high bar to meet. So I think he's perfectly viable in 12-teamers and deeper. So I think he's perfectly viable in 12-teamers and deeper. Yeah, I think that's probably where I'm at with Cano too. I mean, it's a lower K rate.

That's a big, big difference as far as what he's doing versus what you normally get from a guy like Felix Bautista. Any other closers that have caught your eye over the past week or so? I didn't see a lot of changes looking around the league. I mean, I think it's pretty interesting that the Mariners' bullpen continues to thrive without Paul Seawald. That was just trading from depth back when Jerry DiPoto decided to trade Seawald at the deadline. Andres Munoz looks like he has really taken that larger share of the role. So I don't know. I keep looking at Munoz and wondering if they'll give him more next season.

He's already got a season or a career high 11 saves this season. But has anybody else caught your eye in the last couple of weeks from a closing perspective? Well, not really, but I got last weekend, I did get outbid on Cano. And so wound up with Trevor May and used last week.

We're talking at some length about how May has picked up quite a few saves lately and has pitched better. And that does not feel like a one-for-one trade-off. I would much rather have Cano, but still happy to have Trevor May in that 15-team league where I got him. Kind of blown away that the A's didn't just put Trevor May on waivers to save the money given that that was such a popular thing for a few teams to do at this deadline. But yeah, I mean, speaking to Trevor May one last time and going all the way back to July 18th, he's had one appearance where he's been scored upon. It was a pretty bad blow up against the Nationals back on August 13th,

but a lot of zeros around that. Something like, I think, 12 out of his last 13 appearances have been of the scoreless variety, and a ton of saves during that span. Most of his season total has been accrued over about the last month and a half, so not a bad fallback option. Hopefully, if you're looking for saves, You can find some source of them this weekend, and maybe something else will change between now and Sunday. You know, things are very chaotic, but it's a long weekend.

We hope everybody has a safe and happy holiday weekend in the States. You can find us on Twitter slash X. You can find Al at AlMilkYourBB. You can find me at DerekVanRiper. We do have a special going for the holiday weekend. You can get a subscription to The Athletic for $1 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. So if you have a fantasy football draft coming up that you haven't thought at all about, we have you covered. Lots of tools, lots of things to help you there.

Al's got the waiver column running through these next few weeks, so plenty of help. We've got the pod still going. My time for the season is up. My season is over. I am back on paternity leave coming out of the weekend. So I appreciate everybody who's listened and been patient with me throughout the season. I feel like I've been a little foggy for most of the year.

So haven't been myself. Hopefully the shows have still been good and enjoyable, but Eno's still going to be here. Al's still going to be here. Will's still going to be here. I appreciate all of you guys carrying me, filling in for me while I've been gone and looking forward to being back in October.

So that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thank you.