Rates & Barrels - Joey Votto's Case for Cooperstown & A Closer Look at Park Factors for Pitchers

Episode Date: August 22, 2024

Eno, Trevor, and DVR discuss Joey Votto's retirement and his case for Cooperstown, the Mariners' decision to fire manager Scott Servais, and a few park factors for pitchers -- including variations in mounds -- that can impact performances across different environments.Plus, they examine a few pitchers finding new levels in 2024 and try to determine long-term ceilings in search of unexpected aces.Rundown 1:04 Joey Votto Announces Retirement; Next Stop Cooperstown? 13:19 Mariners Fire Manager Scott Servais 26:08 Pitching Park Factors We Rarely Think About 40:56 Searching for Unexpected Aces Among Current Young Starters 52:26 Ryan Pepiot Discusses His Hard Breaking Ball 55:43 Spencer Schwellenbach’s Late Move to PitchingSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Trevor MayExecutive Producer: Derek VanRiper  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Thursday, August 22nd. Derek the Ripper, you know, Sarah's Trevor May here with you. Thanks to the Live High for joining us here on this Thursday afternoon. We've got a lot to cover today. Some breaking news as Joey Votto announced his retirement yesterday. Scott Service just got fired by the Mariners. We'll talk about the implications of that news. We're going to dig into some pitcher-specific park factors, including mound release heights, which have a major impact on stuff. Plus, we'll dig into some other factors that could make pitches or pitchers more or less effective in different environments. Then we're gonna take a look for some unexpected aces,

some pitchers that are pitching really well that maybe didn't have future number one in their scouting report, but could exceed expectations and get to that level or close to that level in the years ahead. So tons to talk about today. Gentlemen, let's begin with Joey Votto announcing his retirement from baseball.

I'm of the opinion that Joey Votto is almost a lock to make the Hall of Fame. I also think the voters have shifted a bit over time to the point where if there was a doubt about a player like Votto 15 or 20 years ago, the people that would have created that doubt no longer vote on the Hall of Fame. I think this is an easy, easy case. You look at the overall body of work, right?

A 294-409-511 career slash line. That 409 OVP, third among active players. He led the NL and OVP seven different times. One MVP, one gold glove, six all-star games. He was the runner-up for the Rookie of the Year in 2008. Trivia question, who actually won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008? And Jay Jappy's JAWS system, which I always liked

just as a way of comparing players across eras especially, has basically in on career war, 64 and a half career war for Joey Votto above the seven-year peak war that Jay looks at at 46.9 so I think there's enough here where it's a pretty easy call that Joey Votto makes it to Cooperstown so first question goes to you today you know is this an easy shoe-in vote for most people to make at this point? I'm pretty confident you are in Envato in the Hall of Fame, but do you think

I've read this correctly in that the voters will get this right? We'll see. It is a little bit light on the old school stuff in terms of like postseason success. And then, you know, if you put a lot of weight into all star voting, the six all star games is a little bit light for a Hall of Famer, but it's really just timing. You know, he had, there's a lot of, there was a couple of good, great first baseman there. And then, you know, we've been changing our attitude about the value of OBP over the course of his career. And so, you know, the didn't all I think we as and here as baseball writers as the we we didn't always get the All-Star Game of Votes right. So it's a lot to you know, there's the voting that the fans voting. I tend to just look at the

numbers and not those numbers not like number of World Series appearances or number of All-Star appearances because I think those are laden with team factors. You know, do I want to, is it his fault they didn't go to the World Series? Like, I don't think so. And so I focus on just his numbers. Sarah Langs has a cool one.

Joey Votto led his league in OVP seven times. The only players to do that more often than MLB history, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Rogers Hornsby. If you look at just straight up, even his whole career, how it ended up, 52nd in OVP all time, and in the top 75 for OPS all time, top 60 for WRC plus. So I mean, I think he's a great bat, you know, how much does his, you know, glove matter? How much does his running matter?

How much does his, you know, postseason success matter? I don't know. For me, he's, it's also a little bit hard for me to extricate the player from the man that I knew. So I'm probably biased towards him because I thought he was one of the most curious and intelligent and interesting minds in baseball, at least among hitters. And I still wish to this day that I you know, I could write a book with Joey Bottoms, Zach Greinke, you know, that would be the most interesting thing.

I mean, your illustrious career, maybe I could just stay and I'll be the slapstick guy. The reliever. No reliever. Let's just call me that. Everyone gets it. But I also I also think it's really funny. One thing I just wanted to mention was that his persona is really interesting. He's kind of a troll.

I was on San Diego radio today, and apparently he went on San Diego radio like a couple of years ago and told this whole long story about Brandon Drury that none of it was true and So when the hosts got to the ballpark brand jury was like mean mugging them and they're like why is Brandon Drury mad at us? And some yeah, that's story. Joy bought a told none of it was true. He's mad at you Drury he did it. He did. Drury. I know he picked jury on purpose because Drury has that kind of resting angry face.

So you worry on purpose to do that, too, if you knew like that. That's funny. Easy call, Trevor, for Joey Votto, the Hall of Fame. I would say yes. And I think it comes down there. I think it comes down to intangible factors. I think that he is like over time, you know, mentioned the valuation of what he does is changing and he's becoming more valuable I think in the eyes of stats savvy writers and there's more

and more of them and I think you hit it right on there. And you just said you might be a little biased to Joey. I think that everyone's it right on there. And you just said, you might be a little biased to, to Joey. I think that everyone's biased to Joey at that point. It's no longer bias. I think they just, everybody's just beloved. Uh, he played for the same team his whole career. There's like, there's a lot of stock to put to that, um, representation of different teams in the hall of fame and their, their greatest players making

the hall of fame, um, the only thing where there's going to be a point of contention is the fact that he was the first of Fame. The only thing where there's going to be a point of contention is the fact that he was a first baseman and there's just so much history of power and that type of position and he's a little bit different than that archetype. But you know, not to say there's the same player, but Larry Walker had a lot of those kind of outside really good statistics that maybe weren't as like straight power guy at times. So it's, it's, it's shifting. And I think that he's a shoe in, uh, kind of like the same way that like, if you really, really, really go look at like longevity and the length of Mowers career, um, there was some maybe, uh, Arguments you can make against, but no

one was making those arguments. It was just, it was just, yeah, that's a good, that's a good comp, I think. And everyone loves Joe and he played for the same team, his whole career. And he's a local boy and, and, and he's, uh, no one could deny that he didn't deserve to be. And that's the type of guy you want in the hall of fame. I think Joe is one of those guys. So I'm, uh, I'm a huge fan and I also agree with you. He's a dude. He's one of the more, he's one of the guys who honestly, uh, just watching a lot of his interviews when I was younger, what kind of gave

me the confidence to be a little more candid and thoughtful and trying to just curious and kind of weird. Um, yeah, he's a bus driver. I don't know if that's true. He might've been told or awesome, uh, post-playing, but I hope he, he considers, uh, doing some fun, you know, stuff around, uh, sharing his stories about the game. Um, you know, now that, uh, you know, stuff around sharing his stories about the game. You know, now that, you know, I don't want to see anyone retire in the middle of the year,

but there's a small part of me that's really excited to see where he's going to pop up. I wouldn't be surprised if he kind of disappears, comes around, and he's around for a long time, and kind of goes into the... gone for a couple months. That's very Joey Vadoey. But I hope that he... what I'm trying to say is I hope when I reach out to him to, to do something with me, that he says, yes, and I, and I hope he, like, I hope he joins the desk at Fox or whatever. Like I would love to see him in the postseason.

I think that he would add a little bit of a different quality to that postseason coverage. Like they're kind of just, they do a lot of joking around and they try to be a little cerebral. And I'm not saying David Ortiz is not cerebral, but like in, in context with Alex Rodriguez and them when they're doing the postseason, like I feel like Vato would maybe like serious it up a little bit about the game. Like when they're talking about the game, I think he could bring that out of them too.

I think like level where he can have those high level conversations with them. And I think that they would latch right onto it because he's there's a like, he's one of them, one of those guys. Also there's an interesting part, it would be really, really, really cooled. Just on a side note, just to see like him and listen, I would love to listen to him and Wainwright just sit there and go back and forth because they played against each other the whole time too. They both played, their whole careers were against each other.

They faced each other a bunch and they're two of the best at their positions. That'd be cool to hear because I think Wayne Wright, Wayne was pretty cerebral too. More cerebral than I thought it would be. So I thought that would be a really, really interesting breakdown as well. So hopefully that happens. That's important. Yeah. That's a true thing about the Granke Votto thing is they didn't face each other a lot. I got a lot out of grinky versus Kernarco where they they like, you know, grinky told me one time that Kernarco like tried to quick bat him, like tried to make him look like he wasn't ready to bat.

So it was like quick pitching, but a batter and then he like stepped in real quick. Who does that? I can't think of times where I've seen that. I think it's because Gr Frankie does quick pitching and slow pitching and both like shaking, shaking, just let's tell you, it was like, I'm a screw with you. Right where he shook like 18. He's trying to get the guy to call timeout, like I would call

timeout and he just shook for like 10. Like, I love this. Who's gonna follow Vada Vada's like that too. You know, like Vada Vada told me that like, you know, he love this, who's gonna, it's the old Vada Vada's like that too. You know, like Vada Vada told me that like, you know, he does this thing where he like looks out in the outfield and before he gets to the plate. And I was like, why do you do that? And he's like, because I don't want the pitcher to be a human being. I'm not looking at the pitcher. I don't want to look at his face.

I don't want to, I don't want him to look at me. I don't want to interact with him as a human being. He is a deliverer of balls. That is it. And I don't want him to make some face and like get in there and like do his closer face or whatever. I don't want, I don't care.

I want to- It's just simple to it. The guy, the guy, the guy likes people. He's like, I don't want to like this guy. If I don't get him. Yeah. He's a pitching machine basically. He is one of the greatest moments I've ever seen on TV.

I think, and I always, I look this up at once every three months. It was an at bat against Kyle Davies. And he is Joey's trying, so he's trying to fix something. You could tell you could see on his like, he's like talking to his bat almost with his eyes. He's not mouthing anything, but like you can tell he's having an internal internal monologue and it is loud and fast. So he's like talking to his buddies.

All right, we got this. He's like pumping himself up. He does a couple quick, like, he gets a real, it was like when he was doing his really low crouch for a while. Does this a couple times that, all right, and you could just tell he's like, I'm locked in. He throws him a change up and just like

sword, half swings, walk. He just like did it immediately. Well, it didn't work and you could just see the whole thing. It is so funny. It is so funny. I think it was like, I think Joey Votto's broken. I gotta go find him.

It's great. Well, whether it's actually driving buses somewhere, Canada, somewhere in Europe, who knows or just relaxing, whatever it is, wish-halling all the best to Joey Votto in his retirement. Would love to see him on a desk. I agree with you guys. I think he would bring more out of that Fox table.

I think my biggest frustration with a rod is like, he has to know more than the things he's talking about, but he just turns into a cliche machine on the desk. And if they could get him away from that, that would be better for the broad. They joke around so much. It's like, you know, David Ortiz is people say he's one of the most cerebral players of all time. Like people told me that David Ortiz, when, when they were like in the dugout, we'll just be, you know, calling out what the pitch was before it was pitched. It was like slider fastball. So, you know what I mean?

Like, so this guy knows everything, but when he put him in with a rod, they seem to focus mostly on camaraderie and like, you know, making jokes and stuff. You know, on hall of famers in their guys that are, I have something to prove, right? These guys are so good that they, it's's like they're hanging out with all the guys who were so good. You got to get, I don't know, like a reliever in there. Get the reliever. Put the reliever on the table.

That's a good point. Like, like I like Diro a lot, DeRosa, like on MLB network and like, you know, he's not a Hall of Famer, but he had to try so hard to stay in the big leagues. Yeah. And he was like, he was a good player and a very clearly like had to learn all he learned so much in order to stay there. Yeah, like that. That's a great recipe for for a quality and coaches to speaking of coaches, I guess. Yep. Speaking of coaches and managers, Scott service has been fired by the Mariners amidst a 12 and 18 stretch in their last 30 games. And I did see a piece over at fan graphs. I didn't get

a chance to read it yet about how, how could a pitching staff this good not make the playoffs? Very fair question to ask. I think that was a Michael Baum in peace that I'm going to check out later, but it's a year in which the Mariners set out to strike out less and they are striking out more. And it is weird. We've talked about the difficulties of hitting at T-Mobile Park. That's real. But at the same time, how much of this even falls on Scott's service? This feels like the beginning of maybe more changes that are going to take place once we reach the end of this season. What kind of shakeup do you think this could lead to? Can this actually be something that turns things around

just in the nick of time for the Mariners to get back into the race? There are five back of the Astros entering play on Thursday, Trevor. It's interesting because when managers are fired, you gotta look at what expectations are going into the season because that is a standard they're being graded on. For example, like, Pedro Grafall was also fired

for a team that was going to be terrible, but like, they're more terrible than they were supposed to be and they don't seem to be getting any better. That was his job and he didn't do that job. He maybe got caught up in the results. So the thing was, Scott, which is interesting, is when the roster's put together, like, you can only build your

lineup and your rotation and use your bullpen the best way possible with what you have. I can't think of anything glaring where like I saw someone brought in where I was like, why is this guy coming in or a lineup decision or a pinch hit decision or an intentional walk decision that didn't make any sense. Um, he seems to be pretty by the book there. It might just come down to, um, one of the biggest issues I think with the Mariners team after watching them a lot is they're, they're best, they're best hitter right now is Cal Raleigh. He's young.

He's like, he's 26, but we don't realize how young everybody is. Uh, they're, they're premier players, Julio Rodriguez, who puts crazy amounts of pressure on himself. You can see how his face changes, like from a bat to a bat, what he's trying to do. Like he's huge smile or he's just super serious. Like those are the two things he is. And as a manager, it's helping those guys, uh, uh, develop a, a, like a, like a even keelness, um, and a way to lead. Yeah, he was so streaky.

He's so streaky and he puts he just puts tons of pride. He wants to be the guy that's learning or getting the getting that contract. And when your team is scuffling, you just the pressure just keeps building when you don't really know how to not how to deal with it. And that's what he's learning right now. So it's there's a timing thing there. And as the manager and the coaching staff as a whole, those are the types of things.

That is what separates, I think, solid coaching staffs from really good ones is being able to notice these things about their guys. So the way their team is put together, not that they don't have leaders, they don't have guys who know how to lead in the way they need them yet because they haven't had this experience.

And unfortunately, it feels like they're squandering pitching at the same time You add all that with the fact that the bullpen really hasn't been locked down like it was last couple years missing brash It's been bad. Munoz has been great up until recently. It's just now it's kind of falling apart and then relying on a bunch of younger guys and Shagwa and like guys who are like great fifth sixth seventh inning guys And they haven't been able to bridge the Munoz well either here at the end. So that has not helped either. So it's really just been starting pitching, but they've been doing well. But for Scott, that in reality, that's really what it comes down to. How do we continue to improve and how do we stay on what we're trying to do? And how do we, how do I get my team to How do I get my team to work through the pressing that you're doing? Because the season's so long, every team deals with this and manages to do that the best.

All time greats at it are like Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy. These guys are maddening, right? To Madden, like, he's relaxed, keeps everyone relaxed. Like, like this would be a prime Joe Madden week of week of show and goes type situation. Like, like, hey, pressing the gas harder, try to push it through the floor. Let's like hit that brake pedal for a second, because it's just not going to get better. He was, he was confident enough to take a step back. I don't know if Scott, I know that Scott and I've just heard the great brother, him and Jerry are very like they managed together Jerry's active in that, in that process.

And that might not be as easy because he when you have to kind of run it by your partner right maybe who has to speak to the man to the owner regular so there's this maybe pressure there that maybe made that hard to do to be a true players coach and sometimes you need a guy just to turn into a players coach for a little bit I don't I don't know if I don't think that's his I just don't think that's the way he is and that's kind of what they've needed. And so it's just poor timing, I think. Yeah, Trevor is saying, you know, the how close this group is. And a lot of people are wondering, including Christian, the live hive, you know, is this bigger than Scott service? Is this a up to a

Jerry DePoto level problem? Is it player acquisition in the front office? Are they not finding enough quality players? And how much like, where's the gap here? Is it both acquisition in the front office? Are they not finding enough quality players? And how much like, where's the gap here? Is it both not finding enough quality players and not having the right coaching in place? Because if you think about quality mariner's seasons at the plate from the last five years, it's mostly veterans that they brought in. It's not a lot of young homegrown talent. I know Cal Raleigh and Julio would be the exceptions to that, but I think you need a little bit more from the players that you're drafting and developing than what the Mariners have got in this era. Yeah, I mean, it's just they're about to break the all-time record for a strikeout rate by a team.

Like, it's not just that they're striking out a lot for this year. It's this would be the worst strikeout rate ever for a strikeout rate by a team. Like it's not just that they're striking out a lot for this year. It's this would be the worst strikeout rate ever for a team. Um, that may change going down the stretch, but it may not. And if you just look at, you know, the, the strikeout rate, the players that have like added most strikeout rates year over year, it's full of Mariners. And so you're right. Like, why do you go and get Josh Rojas and he strikes out more? Why do you get Mitch Hennig and he strikes out more? Why do you get Mitch Mitch Garver and he strikes out more? You know, why do you get Jorge Polanco who who was like a 20% guy, and he comes to Seattle, he's a 30% guy. And we've talked

about the batters I and that I do actually believe that's part of it. We'll talk a little bit about the pitcher park factors today that may contribute to making Seattle a great place to pitch and we love their pitching staff. But maybe that makes it harder on the hitters to hit. So there's a there might be just, you know, this is a pitcher's park and they haven't quite figured out how to put offense together in the pitchers park. Like if you think about the Giants like their offenses haven't been great

And they've tried different approaches. So Part of this might be it's really hard to win in a pitcher's park And this is why it's really hard to put together an offense And they bless their hearts. They've tried I mean they've made more moves than anybody and they keep trying bringing different people. They said that we're going to improve the strikeout rate and now they're going to have the worst strikeout rate of all time. I just I don't know what it is either you lean in at some point and you say fine, we're gonna have the worst strikeout rate of all time, but we're going to slug, you know, or like, why not be aggressive and sign John Hooley?? You know, like why not go really far the other direction and why not trade for Luz Arias? Like these are options that were available to them.

They could have signed Jung-Hoo Lee. They could have traded for Luz Arias. So they haven't done that yet. And they seem to hone in on a type of player that like strikes out 18% of the time, walks 9% of the time, and doesn't hit the ball extremely hard, but is like a decent hitter. And that hasn't worked out. So I think they need to rethink the hitting program a little bit.

Another interesting part is they have quality prospects in their system right now by a lot of measures, right? You look at some of the hitters, they're, they're not necessarily all knocking on the door to contribute right now. But if you said who has position player prospects that other teams would actually want in blockbuster deals, the Mariners do tick that box. But if they can't turn those players into regulars and potentially all stars, like that's where the problem is. Their best one is Harry Ford, who's right behind Cal rally.

So, you know, you start thinking where could they make a big deal? And, you know, Luis Robert is somebody might get traded in this off season, but he doesn't help their strikeout rates. Was that a lean in thing or we just we don't care about strikeout rate. We're just going to get another outfielder in here who can actually slug. You know, what there's not a lot of teams that are like, Hey, we have, you know, a stud mid career, you know, veteran bat that we're, you know, that we'll give up for prospects, you know what I mean?

Like that's, that's also a thing. I think that the giants have found. It's like, it's pretty hard to trade for, for guys, you know, Trevor, if you were in position to make these sorts of decisions, would you emphasize hit tool overpower if you couldn't consistently find both given the difficulties of hitting in that ballpark? Well, what I would really I'm not saying they haven't done this, but there there is something outside probably of the park because it

always hasn't been like that. It'd be interesting to see what the strikeout rate has been there since that park opened. I understand the game has changed a lot too, but the rates regarding or like in relation to the league must be high every year, but it's interesting if it's higher now and if there's a correlation there if it has anything to do with the park, or maybe there might be a culture

that is putting the pressure on to not strike out, which then gives you the thing that makes it happen, and that could be happening more and more as of late. Like everyone who goes there's like, okay, I can't strike out a lot, even though I strike out a lot sometimes, and then they strike out more, and then they go somewhere else, and then they're successful again. Jesse Winker left, he's like, okay, I can't, I can't strike out a lot, even though I strike out a lot sometimes, and then they strike out more, and then they go somewhere else. And then they're successful again, Jesse Winker left, he's been better since Te Oskar Hernandez

has made an All-Star game after he left. Like, they can't, it's not just the park because they play 81 games other places, they're still striking out a crazy high rate. So it has to be something philosophically. So what you want to do, what I would try to do is really hone in on what are, what are our best educated guesses on why this is happening so often. And if it's things that you can't really change, like park factors or things like that, then you build your team in order to work around it. So you try to you either go if there's pop available. One thing they really need, for example, is some production at the corners of the infield, which they have not had in a long time. So they need that more than anything right now.

I'm really interested in like a Bregman possibly third base. Like that could be a thing. I don't know if he's gonna be too much, but like that would be interesting. That's also the shortest porch in that field too. So it's not the proper boxes, but it's better than everywhere else in the park. So and he comes with contact. I mean, the question, though, is like it's questionable about a balls, you know, like it's not a guy who hits the ball super hard.

So so if if you're if you hunt exit below, but ex-village are hurt the most by the park factor, which by all accounts, it is a lot then going for that. You might not be able to which by all accounts, it is a lot. Then going for that, you might not be able to get over that threshold where it makes a difference. So then it comes down to, we just have to fill up the bases as much as humanly possible and maybe try to run, like try to get speed,

things that are not affected by the park. An interesting thing is like how JP Crawford's a little bit of an outlier generally in this group. Like he walks a little bit more, he strikes out a little bit less. There's something about the way he approaches hitting that is not this year, but he's had hand injuries all year, so you got to discount those. But last year, he had a great year in that respect.

Why? And what options are there similar to him? Where if you have two or three guys that maybe don't necessarily don't have the pop, they'll hit 10 homers in a year, but they're on base constantly and they can run a little bit and they can hit extra base hits. Like that might be what you need to go for and the issue is there's a smatter, it's just not a,

passing the torches in this lineup doesn't work very well and you wanna create the passing the torch situation. But I think, I really do think that the pressure to take advantage of this window has really, really hit these guys, these young guys pretty hard to where they're, they're making choices that maybe if they were feeling more comfortable,

they wouldn't make as much. And I think that might be the biggest thing that is contributing. So you look up, you see 15 strikeouts every night, you're like, man, you go in the next day, you're like, well, I really don't wanna strike out 15 times today, and then you strike out 15 times. You're? And then you strike out 15 times thinking about it. Yeah. You're thinking about it becomes the thing. It is funny. Uh, they, the, the, the, the park was,

they, they have actually rolling park factors back to 1999 on baseball savant. And so you can actually see that team mobile was average for strikeouts, you know, and, or, you know, like the sort of the mid 2000s, it was an average place for strikeouts for five, six, seven years. So, you know, it does kind of go in and out. And you wonder, is that like, what is that? Is that weather? Is that where they making changes to the park? Or they that all personnel because park factors can still be driven by personnel and And I do think there is a there's a chance that this is something that's gotten in their heads a little bit Whatever the reason it's been a very frustrating team for Mariners fans to watch this year because they looked earlier in the year like they Could overtake the Astros win the West and be a dangerous playoff team given the quality of their pitching. FC has you covered. Join me, David Ornstein, Phil Hay and the most stacked footballing newsroom ever assembled every Monday to Thursday as we take a deep dive into the biggest football story of the day. Then every Friday, Adam Leventhal and our club reporters will preview

the potential tactics, drama and jeopardy riding on the biggest game from that coming weekend. Check us out wherever you get your podcasts from for free. We hope you can join us for what is set to be another blockbuster. Susan. Let's dig into these park factors a bit more Seattle and beyond, right? I mean, you look at this, this is from Thomas Nestico. It's a stuff plus park factor. And it's the one of the few park factors I've seen that actually puts Seattle as less friendly

to pitchers. Just about everything else you look at, especially the strikeout one that you mentioned, you know, it looks like a place that's really good for pitchers. So it doesn't necessarily elevate the characteristics of a pitch. What do you think the reason for that would be? I don't know. That one runs into its face. And you'll notice this today when we're talking about this sort of stuff. But it's really hard to just, you know, have one rubric and be like,

this is what creates this, because we'll talk about different kinds of things that lead to pitcher park factors, mound factors, batter's eye factors, and then even air, sort of air and altitude factors. So it's really easy to tell you why Colorado Rockies are last, they are in altitude, your pitches don't move, Stuff Plus has adjusted for this since, move. Stuff Plus has adjusted for this since, or our Stuff Plus has adjusted for this.

And so you wouldn't find the same kind of park factor there. That's an easy one. But it gets a lot harder when you start looking around at the different factors. And this makes me think that the batter's eye in Seattle is really the big thing that we should be focusing on. I was there recently, stood behind home plate and looked at that thing and it was not straight to me.

And I can totally hear Teosca Hernandez in my head. But Tampa Bay being number one, you first think, well, Chris Bassett once told me that standing on the mound in Tampa Bay, that's a mountain. And it's a dome. So you say, oh, maybe the mound is a little bit mountain. And it's a dome. So you say, Oh, maybe the maybe the mound is a little bit bigger. And maybe it's a dome. It's like a perfect situation for stuff. Plus, that's not necessarily true for San Diego, which is, you know,

top five or Phillies, which are top five for in this park factor. And, and so there's not an easy answer for each thing. But I would say that the different contributors to a pitching park factor are batters eye mound qualities, and air qualities. And one thing that is true in Tampa, I don't know if you have this map, but it's, it wasn't great quality. The, um, salt content in the air. quality, the salt content in the air. So some of the top ones that you'll see and Seattle should have high salt content in there actually. But if some of the other ones you'll see Marlins

and Tampa, they have high salt content there. I asked Alan Nathan, the sort of resident physicist for baseball, and he said salt content in the air is gunk basically in the air that helps your pitches move more. So it is, it provides drag, provides resistance. And so in those places, you know, the salt content may be adding to. So being closer to sea level, that's something you, Darvish, said. I'd probably my sinker now in San Diego

because it moves more and that's like the sort of wet sea air that you might think about. It's more the salt that matters than the water. But anyway, so there are all these different things, but it looks like, and here's one last thing, is just the Mount Heights. Max Bay looked and matched pictures, you know, home and away and in different parks

and did some funky math. And what he found was that Philadelphia, Houston, San Francisco, Baltimore, those places, the mound, it's not that the mound is an inch higher because nobody releases the ball from the top of the mound. This is about park factors for release points. What it might be different from park to park is the slope of the mount because the pitchers are going down the mound to release it. And so if they if the slope of the mound is different, and I could see MLB being like, the mount has to be this height, you know, everybody goes with the tape measure and says, Oh, the mound is this height, and then nobody cares about how you get from that height to the ground because that would take protractors and a lot of work.

So instead, every mound is slightly different as you get down the mound. And I wonder if that ports over to Trevor's experience where when you take that step, do you feel like you're going down further in some places? Do you feel the slope of the mound? Is that when you say a tall mound, is it more less about where you're standing on the rubber and more about what you feel when you're going down the down the slope? Uh, we, we like the tall mound. You feel like what you see when you're standing up tall

on the top and you're like, wow, I feel like I'm looming over them. And then steep mound will be like, oh, meaning like your leg is landing like a little bit later than you normally feel like swinging open or whatever's going on the plane. Also, some places have the holes deeper, you're going to be deeper into the ground. If you land it all, you're going to, you're going to be a little bit lower to the ground that could throw you off by an inch It's it's entirely possible But yeah, the slopes are different like they would have to measure it inch by inch and make sure and there is standardized Measurements, but they they're within a range like you're fine If you're within a range because there's only so much you can do with different types of clay and stuff

I totally understand that yeah, dirt's different. Yeah, it's just different different everywhere Some some places are super sticky. You couldn't dig a hole if you wanted to. And then other places as soon as you step in and it's a hole like a high school mount, like it's just the way it is. Um, so a lot of those things though, they're little, we're getting, now we're starting to get into like the minutia of, of the slight differences in these things. But I think it's fascinating on release heights and angles and stuff are affected by these things are spiked milliseconds, one way or the other, or centimeters one way

or the other, and how much they can really change a lot of things. Like if you if you're fastball, if you're releasing an inch higher, like that would mean something to you. A lot. Yeah, I would mean a lot. There would be a ton of reasons that could be. And you I would always want to make sure it's it's not affecting or it's not for the reasons that could be. And I would always want to make sure it's not affecting or it's not for the reasons that make my pitches less effective movement wise. I don't want my movement to change

at all. So if I'm a little bit more underneath the ball and that's why it's a little bit lower or higher or I'm a little more on top of the ball, now I can't throw up. Everything's throwing down because I got a little bit slightly different angle All of those things are important and sometimes you'll just walk into a walk into a mountain You'll feel so different that it's one of the like you don't even know how to make that adjustment because it's one of ten things It could be Kicking, you know that out of out of slot a little bit and you just kind of got to wear it. That's that Yeah, I mean there's got gotta be sex psychological components to this. I mean, we can do as much as we can to be like, okay, so we'll adjust for the

saltwater or like, we'll look at movements. We'll do the, you know, what you did for the release point there. You can do that for movements. So you can be like, okay, well, we're going to like calibrate for each park and we're going to find a neutral park and would do make all these movements to a theoretical neutral park and would make all these movements to a theoretical neutral park. And you'll still probably find that places like Tampa and Boston just feel different because in Boston, you know, as I, as it was in my article a couple of years ago, um, or last year, maybe, uh, you know, in Boston, they talk about the backstop is right behind

the, the catcher, right? And so the fans are right on you in that direction. And then the green monster is like laughing at you over your shoulder. And there are fans on top of the green monster. So I bet you in Boston, it just feels like the fans are in your damn jersey with you. Yeah, right there. For sure. You just like, ah, kick it. And you've talked about or I don't know if you've talked about this, but other people talk about like Minnesota feels like

you're in a hole. Because they kind of literally I think they literally did like sort of excavated a little bit. Yeah, they converse is like ground level. So anything in that first level bowl to the field would be like a pit. Yeah. So that's different too. That feels like maybe a Coliseum type thing where like all the fans are above you

and you're just in a pit, you know? So that might have some psychological effects. And then Tampa is like, has like, like from my experience when I've been there, it has a very clinical feeling. It's that LED lighting. It's like hospital lighting, you know? And I feel like you almost feel like you're in a lab. I feel like if I was a pitcher and I was in Tampa, I'd be like, this was perfectly

created for me to pitch in. I'm in a I'm in a lab right now. Just I'm just executing my pitches perfectly. And it may have to do with the salt water, may have to do the lighting, may have to do the batter's eye, but like some part of it is, what does it feel like to stand on that mound? And we may not be able to like, you know, science out every little part of that. Yeah, another example, it's from another sport,

is thinking about basketball being played in football stadiums. That just happens for the final fours a lot. And then you have no depth perception or at least the depth perception of where the basket is relative to a normal gym that you'd play in is completely different. So they'll do the big blackout curtain. Sometimes. The, that kind of effect would exist for the pitchers.

Like we talk about the batter's eye all the time, but the pitchers, I, the whatever's happening around the plate behind the plate. That's a thing too, that we really don't measure or discuss. Yeah. When you're, I mean, pitching and hitting, right. Cause that kind of, this is connected to this, all the Seattle conversations we just had too. It's like you naturally are mapping out all of the, your surroundings from you to

the place you're trying to get the ball. So you're trying to see the ball from. So you're trying to create like a 3d mental maps so you can see where things are in space and then time it like that's at the end of the day, that's what you're doing. And so when little things are changing peripherally that maybe throw that off a little bit in your head and it's hard to put, it just feels uncomfortable but hard to put your finger on because that whole process has been unconscious your whole life.

Those type of things do factor in. It's really interesting because that different feeling sometimes can be co-opted like you go and you have that weird feeling but you pitch well. that now you're associating that feeling with like a comfortable feeling like I had in Fenway for example I was I had one tough outing in Fenway for the most part I pitched really really well there and for whatever reason it's not a pitcher friendly park but for whatever reason you feel good there I felt good there and I felt like confident for whatever

reason just being on that mound that was associated I locked good there and I felt like, uh, confident for whatever reason, just being on that mountain that was associated, I locked it in. Um, and the opposite can happen. I had the same thing with Houston where I just, I didn't think anyone ever going to go well in Houston and it didn't. That's supposedly that mound is supposedly one of the tallest mounds in baseball. Yeah. And only till recently that I, I kind of got rid of that feeling and threw well there again, uh, recently like last

year. So that's all part of it too. Some things that you said, you're not going to be able to science it out, but that's a thing. That's definitely that contributes. I was just thinking, do you know that some, that thing that some parks have that's like a cutout in the infield, that's like a line from the plate to the mound? In Detroit. Detroit. Is that the only place? Yeah, now.

Yeah, it's the only one left. I wonder what that would do to a pitcher. I feel like that would be really good for a pitcher because it'd be like it's showing you the highway. Yeah, to be honest, we don't even notice it's there, but it might. It could be again. It could be like a lot. You feel lined up.

Yeah, you feel like you're your position correctly. So because I bet you if they made it like a little bit crooked, we would we would know immediately if the if the Tigers make the playoffs. Uncle Ted going diabolical in the live, I've ever GM. I put automated ads in the outfield and change the ads to dark colors from my team hitting and white ads for visitor hitters. Ooh, I know a team that used to do something like that. The old school Metrodome twins

have been accused of opening the old gate doors because it was kind of pressurized. That's what happens to Dome old all the straight behind home plate doors when they're hitting and then close them again when they're pitching. I've been told that that's happened sometimes. I heard I heard that the Blue Jays like would turn on the air conditioning or turn them off. I don't know if I believe it. Yeah. And then the what the guardians just removed half of their stands and. Yeah, that's going one.

If you're doing a full on construction project, you're just opening some doors. Then you're you're really getting down to a granular sort of level between innings, whatever works. We're going to try in stuff plus to adjust for a lot of this and then in the new update, because, you know, it is it is an interesting thing that Tampa always leads the league and stuff plus. And then you see this park factor and you're like, oh, how much of it is the park?

And then we've seen even this year, massive home away splits for strikeout rates for Tampa players. Aaron Savalli had a crazy good strikeout minus walk rate at home and a very mediocre one on the road. And I know that's like just small splits and kind of small sample stuff, but it lines up with the fact that for some reason, stuff is better in Tampa. So we wanna adjust for that and try to find something

that's kind of a neutral and park factored out. I'm looking forward to that update because it sounds like there's a lot of new information that's gonna be going into Stuff Plus. And as you've teased, right, it's gonna be revealed at First Pitch Arizona. That's right. But it's also important for this conversation

because we love all the Seattle Young pitchers and how much of that is the park? We've been talking on this broadcast itself about Bryce Miller's home away strikeout splits. Yeah, yeah. It's tough, right? And one task we put on the rundown for a day was to do a search for some unexpected aces along current young starters. And it's wide open. I put a few names on our sheet for today. I thought maybe Brian Woo could be someone that fits this description because the ratios have been great. He's not getting the same swing and miss right now that he's had other points during his career, but he's also been on and off the IL a couple of times. So maybe the stuff's a little bit off to a lot of possible explanations

there. I wonder when you go through this exercise, how much the park factors lead you to sort of cheat in one direction where you could get ACE type results from someone who might be like a true talent top 30, top 40 starting pitcher overall. But that's sort of the bin that we're shopping in and just looking over the list of names I put on the sheet. It was Brian Wu, Ryan Pepio, Hunter Brown and Spencer Schwellenbach. Three of those guys pitch in for different reasons, very pitcher friendly environments. So maybe I am cheating already and just trying to lean into park factors instead of actually doing deeper analysis. I mean, it's gonna it's gonna color our idea. And in fact, it's gonna make you more right or wrong later because, you know,

just think of Nick Pavetta's career. Uh, there's a guy who has good stuff that if he'd come up in Seattle or, or San Francisco, I think we'd have a totally different idea of Nick Pavetta. I mean, Philadelphia and Boston and the stuff he's had, it's possible that, you know, command and some other reasons are there for his home run rates and stuff. But I, you know, you just get so much grace too,

as a young pitcher, I think if you come up in one of these places, you have time to work through things. You know, if Hayden Birdsong had come up a Yankee, he'd already be back down to the minors. Yeah, it's true. Yeah,ougher in those extreme hitter environments. I imagine it feels like you're on a tightrope. You just, you're trying to be too fine sometimes. You can't trust your stuff quite as much because if you make a mistake, it's going to be punished at a greater degree in places like that. As for Wu, do you see that kind of future? Do we see something in his pitch mix, in his ability to manipulate the ball where you could see strikeout per inning,

strikeout rates again? It's 25.1% last year. He's below 20% so far this season. He's slashed the walk rate down below 3%. So I don't know what to make of 2024 Brian Wu. It's like it's better by the results, but the process numbers have taken a hit in one pretty key area that I look at when I'm trying to find a future race. One thing I'd like is these two fastballs and a time when, you know, having multiple fastballs really important. So we have this this this thing right here. It's like I think most of these I mean, Luis Medina aside, he's the worst command on this list. And Bobby Miller, I think most of these, I mean, Luis Medina aside, he's the worst command on this list,

and Bobby Miller, I think right now, is probably injured. Other than that, there's not really a clunker on this list. And this is a list of guys with both above average sinkers and force-eamers by Stuff Plus this year. And you'll see some notable, some notable veterans and Zach Wheeler and Luis Castillo, that I think embody what I'm looking for out of Brian Wu long term, which is

the ability to mix and match those two, those two breaking balls and those two fastballs with command. I don't think he necessarily has the top end V lo of a Wheeler. But, you know, I don't think he necessarily has the top end, uh, V lo of a Wheeler, but, um, you know, I do think that Wheeler Castillo, like there's a chance that he, he follows a path like that. Yeah. It's pretty interesting. I mean, I, I think if you're looking for a base set of skills, Trevor, for someone that could take a leap like that is having two above average fastballs, a really good place to start because it's such an important foundational pitch.

And we know you could miss your spot with Velo and get away with it a little more often when you miss with breaking stuff and off speed, it tends to get punished as we're seeing with the Red Sox right now at a really high rate. Yeah. I think that that's a good, uh, indicator of maybe. Consistent quality success, but maybe not dominance, and that's that's I think the thing missing is having a good you can get away with having one really good fastball one wrinkle like a cutter

or sinker. But if you have a really good breaking pitch as well, like an elite fastball and elite breaking ball, Spencer Schreider, that's the type of number one type guy that I would say, I would say Wu definitely kind of profiles as the mid three type of guy, because the swing and miss isn't quite there. And it was solid last year, but it still wasn't like a number one type

of swing and miss either. So he's kind of relying on his fastball a lot, but his command's really good this year and you can get away with having really good command. It is interesting though, nothing in a vacuum he throws is stellar. It's all, it all works, but it all works well together and he can throw it all in good spots that won't hurt him.

And that is definitely what's happening this year, but he's gonna tend to be one of those guys that has to rely on the ball being caught as opposed to people missing it more. At least how he's pitching this year. It's just even last year there was no real off-speed pitch. It was like that's just a swing and miss every time he throws it. But he thinks like he's pitching with his entire arsenal and having a good idea of what he's trying to accomplish up there with Cal. So I would say, is that a possibility for a 10 year big leader? Absolutely. Is he likely to be like a number one on a good team? Probably not.

Yeah, it looks like a stretch to me on the surface. The other part of this, it's kind of interesting. Paul, the live high of pointing out that the splits have changed. Brian Wu's big problem last year was lefties and he was dominant against righties. And this year he's also improved against lefties. Do you think that's sticky? Do you think the way he's approaching hitters

is actually making him better even though he's not getting those punch outs? I don't know. I mean, I guess there's increased change of usage. And then, you know, he he's got the two sliders. So I think there's been a sort of an advanced understanding of, you know, sometimes I will actually throw the sweeper to lefties, you know, because they expect me to just keep throwing the gyro slider, you know, so he can kind of play the two sliders off each other.

I think it's a coming together of his plan. But I do agree that, you know, you'd kind of see, you want to see that swing and miss when you just rank the kids starting pitchers with by strikeout rate and just this is a real sort of brute force mechanism. You'll see Paul Skienes at the top, of course. just, this is a real sort of brute force mechanism. You'll see Paul skeins at the top of course. But a couple and then Hunter Green is right there. And guys that we've talked about before and Grayson Rodriguez, Taj Bradley and Jared Jones.

But also a couple standouts there that I wanna point out David Festa, Spencer Schwalbach and Ben Brown. And so you're starting with this like ability to really strike guys out, which is, I think what Trevor's sort of pointing to, and you've been pointing to is like the real swing and miss ability. And it really, this is a kind of Bert song is a long shot for this, but I have a piece coming up from tomorrow. And I think you sent me a thing

about like, Jacob de Grom is like, you know, his scouting report when he was in AA or AAA and it was like, you know, I had some stuff to work on. He's a mid rotation guy. Like I think everyone looks at Birdsong and goes, he can't control his fastball. And I'm like, well, what if he comes back next year and he's just throwing a sinker instead of a four seam and all of a sudden that fits his arm slot better. And all of a sudden he can actually command his fastball because he was actually always a sinker guy. This is a story that other pitchers have figured out.

They've been like, I've been throwing the wrong fastball. They, they want me to throw the four seam because of bird or whatever. And then I, you know, my slots actually a sinker slot and now I'm throwing the sinker and everything's better, you know? So, you know, I think there could be just like a weird thing that clicks into place for bird song where he's already striking guys out a lot because his breaking balls are great. He sits 96 and he's just spraying the ball. So is it like a command step

forward or a different fastball or something? He has a lot of the pieces that you put together and it's kind of hard to see now because you're like, I just walks everywhere as a five year array, how can you be nice? And the reason I want to bring up Schwellenbach is we've been chasing vert so long in baseball that, um, I, I think there's going to be a next round of unique fastballs and Schwellenbach does not necessarily have great vert, but he, he has cut the, the, the, the, the, the horizontal on it.

We talked about that and I just feel like having a unique fastball might be more important than having the traits that we normally associate with a great fastball. I don't know how much Festa you've seen. I really like him. He has more of the traditional vert fastball. Trevor, what do you think about Festa? I actually haven't been able to catch enough Festa either. But he is interesting because he does have that,

that the Mets are definitely in the vert. No, it's the Twins Festa. Oh, Twins Festa, sorry, not the David, or David's, or the other, Matt Festa's the other one. Yeah, yeah. Twins Festa, that is definitely a Twins thing. Yeah, yeah. That stuff, so it doesn't surprise me at all, but, um, they

all throw the bullet slider too. Cause that became up in stone, the same bullet slider. They all throw the bullet slider. They're all back on that. And they, they, they also, they have their own version of the sweeper too. Everyone throws the hard one. Like no one throws a big, the true sweeper. They throw the 87 mile an hour slider, the different Jack's, everyone wants to

throw that so, um, you know, that I think that's, again, that's like that type of fastball. Like you just mentioned Birdsong. What I always am interested in terms of dominance is ability to make mistakes and still get swings and misses and having a really high ride fastball. Like Pepio has one. He's got a-

Yeah, Pepio might be my favorite today. He's up there with Carter, or Cutter Crawford in terms of ride. So it's like he's got he's got the North South thing going to and the vest is definitely in that in that same same thing. It's funny because North South was such so big from like 19 to 21 and then 22 on it's becoming kind of East West a little bit more or two plane obsession where we're trying to get all these different planes going and now the leveling out of pitches,

there's a lot of people throwing them and maybe they're not as good at throwing them and so we're getting a correction that guys wanna go North South again. So it's funny how quickly this is happening because especially because sinkers are so effective, now guys are trying to get to hit the sinkers again so the four teams are going to become,

or it's going to be pushing pull like that forever. Um, we're going to be going week to week, but that's why I kind of liked woo. Cause I think whatever, whatever's in, like he's got something for you. And that's the thing I think it comes down to like, everyone's going to really try to lean in on both. Um, and if you can't, uh, you got to find a pitch from that group of pitches. Like if you're north, south, north, south, north, south, then you add a sweeper.

That's what I did. That was my horizontal. Then I was able to find the seam shift with the change-ups, so then I got two horizontal pitches, and then I was like, oh, now I'm one of these guys. But then, then my- This is a perfect lead-in, dude. This is a perfect lead-in.

Check this out. Check out, this is Pepio. Listen to Pepio. He's talking about north, South, East, West, and he's talking about command because he had poor command. It's like the birdsong thing where like people think he wasn't going to make it because he had such bad command. He came up with like a 15% walk rate. Here's, uh, here he is talking about what the hard, uh, gyroslider did for him. What did you have coming out through that way? And what do you

have now? What's it's been the same grip. So I just take my fore seam and I just turn the ball a little bit. Throw like an off-centered fastball. When I'm throwing it to the left, he's like trying to keep it more up so I keep it away from the loop. So the big one is just like I'll turn it just a little bit and then basically try to throw it more of a cutter. Slightly different grip for both of them? Yeah. So like if I'm trying to throw it more up in the zone, I'll just turn it just a little bit. And then if I'm trying to get it like towards the bottom or especially the in the zone I'll just turn it just a little bit and I'm trying to get like towards the bottom or especially the righties

I'll just turn a little bit more and then basically just do the same thing Just throw an off-center heater and then basically just throw a bullet bulls lighter Are you trying to be on the side of that or trying to through it trying to like stay if I'm trying to throw it Down like try to throw down the zone I'm gonna try to stay a little bit more on top of it get more downward action to it when I throw in the more cutter style to a lefty, it's more a little bit behind it and then just like off-center behind it.

It's cool, cool. I feel like that evolution of that pitch has been really important for your command, is that true? That's huge for me because like fastball has a little bit of run and ride to it and change up office goes that way. So I've gotten a lot better at throwing fastballs into lefties, but if I'm command of the fastball, just staying on side on me all day, I have to have something that goes in

and just being able to have command of that and get to the inside part of the zone so that it opens everything back away. So I'm not just one dimensional stand away all day. I think that's a little bit what you're talking about. And like, like, Bert song could have something where he's like, Oh, I'm spraying this thing to to to lefties. Let me just throw a cutter. You know, like, let me like, let me just throw. Let me do a different pitch. And so, you know, what we have with Pepio is the elite off speed pitch,

you know, developed a good breaking ball. And that made him be able to use his fastball more effectively because yes, he will spray his fastball away. And and when he's's doing that he still has a picture we can go inside so a lot of times I think like Arsenal changes and pitch design. You know you know adding a pitch can really bring things together because of this sort of thing where it's like I was staying away from everybody and I all my only choice was away or further away or you know, in the dirt, you know, and that's why I was walking everybody. So I it's that one. I think it makes it just really hard to see who's going to do it next. I think of all the guys we've talked today, Pepio is almost the like the most ready,

like the most, the fullest, readiest to go like the guy who could do it next year. Yeah. I mean, the big question with Pepio coming through the Dodger system, too, is just getting the walks under control. He did it in a big way in a small sample last year. He's carried a lot of that over, like an 8% walk rate. This year is really good for the swing and miss that he gets. So it looks like it's all clicking and being more dynamic,

having that extra wrinkle, getting that different look, that seems like one of the last things you would need to possibly make that leap. I think Schwellenbach's story reminds me of de Grom a little bit, just because college shortstop started pitching late. And if you look at what he's doing well, right, he gets chases, he gets whiffs. The strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal already. The pitch mix is already deep. You had the conversation with them about making sure he didn't have too much horizontal movement on the floor seamer because then it makes it less effective. Right.

So there's pretty clearly advanced understanding. Yeah. Like there's curious guy. There's a lot there to like already, but there's also more room for projection than you'd think for a 24 year old that pitched collegiately just because he started late. And what I was wondering about, you know, you read the de Grom old scouting reports, those reports like de Grom, like being a mid rotation starter is a good outcome. He turned into something much better than that.

I wonder, can we somehow project or predict more VELO for a guy like Schwellenbach? Is it possible that he hits a VEL lo bump a little bit later just because of when he started pitching full time in college? Yeah, I think he's like two years out of TJ. I mean, would, I don't know how TJ relates to this. I mean, usually you kind of come back with your V lo, but yeah, now it's probably not affecting him much. Um, you know, to say the thing with Jake, uh, after having tons and tons of

conversations with him about it too. Um, first things first, he's just a freak athlete naturally. Like he's one of those guys, the everyone team's got one, he's theirs. Um, and, uh, it just came down to getting a, a, a small mechanical adjustment to get one thing on, on, on time that he already had. So his was like really. I don't want to easy, but really easy to see like a like they were like, oh, your hip shoulder separation. You're not you're not being a last maximum. You're doing it. You're like slowly contracting and then you're going like, what if we just contract you the

whole way? And he's like, oh, okay. And then five miles an hour, like I mean, I mean, he's just so naturally like athletic that he just picked up, picked up, picked it up. Is that kind of low hanging fruit still around? I mean, everyone knows about hip shoulder separation now. Like I was sure. Schwedlies is before they get in pro ball now they're getting, yeah, they're getting, getting into college. Cause they do that. Yeah.

We know what that is. They didn't know for us is telling about their hip shoulder separation and getting that done right then, you know Yeah, and and some of these guys who came up and like did this type of stuff Beforehand they just kind of hit gold trying some new stuff outside the box. But now we have like things to look for and and documentation for it, so There's more guys throwing up to the potential. I think we've talked about this quite a bit on every show, but especially on this one is pitching has just found a lot of great ways for guys,

more guys reach their potential more often to whatever their 100% level of them is. But I also think that is what also, that's when you start to, it's almost like your pitching ability is like a little like an audio meter and it the higher you get to being a maximum the more often You're gonna peak and possibly get hurt. So like it's that's kind of what we're seeing But but they did the Jake Dergram effect, you know They if he came up now, they would have found that out at Stetson or before

He would have been throwing a 100 and been up top three pick. It's a timing when when Jacob deGrom entered this world, there was a pretty big factor in how they were able to find what they found when they found it in that regard. It's really interesting. Now, you're called Scholl and Bach. Good idea. There's also like a relationship I think between like chasing like movement profiles and VLO.

And so I had an interesting conversation with Joe Boyle. And he's come back from the minor store and harder and feeling good. And I was like, what's the relationship? He said, you can't call someone who throws a hundred miles an hour a bad mover. You know, like it's possible, we're optimized for this. This is what we're doing. you can't call someone who throws 100 miles an hour a bad mover. Possibly, we're optimized for this, this is what we're doing.

And so he said to some extent what he did in the miners was just to kind of throw its intent, throw hard and let his body sort of gather to make that thing happen. And one thing we're watching with Gavin Williams that's really interesting is that over time, he's losing vertical movement and he's gaining horizontal movement, but he's gaining V lo. And so by quote unquote shape,

you're saying, Oh, I don't like it. I don't like it. It's just like kind of sinker ish. Oh, like don't like this word. Where'd all your vert go? But if you start 99, a lot of that goes out the window. So you may find some guys who were in certain organizations Maybe a little bit behind or maybe just have a different philosophy or still chasing vert in a way that isn't maybe the right thing For some of their pitchers where they get to a different organization and they're like I know you've been trying to do this thing or do this thing to get the vert but Here just pick up the ball like James Paxton or somebody said that at one point they just told him to pick up the ball like James Paxton, or somebody said that at one point, they just told him to pick up the ball and throw it. And that's your arm slot. And don't

worry about whatever somebody was trying to raise it or lower it, like, just pick up the ball and throw it. And so some people might be like chasing certain movement patterns right now that we don't even know, could just relax into their normal arm slot and get three miles an hour. That's what we're seeing with Gavin Williams. He's like, he's literally gotten three miles an hour over the course of this year, but lost shape and in the end, that's going to be good for him.

And so I think Williams deserves to be part of this conversation because he might be transforming in front of our eyes in a way that, you know, he did Grom did once. I mean, uh, the interesting thing yougrombed it once. I mean, yeah. Uh, the interesting thing you said about Boyle too, and the gathering, uh, and I love that you brought him up. We've talked about it and this isn't a secret, but I've been, I've had a few conversations with him this year.

Just, just, I kind of just made myself available, um, to talk. Cause we ended last year, we had a lot of great conversations about pitching and it was a, it was a good, uh, relationship. And I felt like he's at a point in his career where Like he's just getting going. He's got like glass now type stuff when he was that age Like they're very similar very similar really athletic kid 6 8 or 6 7 just big dude But we talked about gathering like you said gathering over the mound because he was very quick And I'm like what in doubt man just like see if you can hang your leg up Like you don't have to do this in a game

But like when you're playing catch just like stand your back foot as long as you can just see what see what your body does because you'll probably start leaning because you want to go and that's usually an example. And I remember we had that conversation. He was throwing like seven eight the day before and the next outing his first pitch the game was 102 and I was like, what did you say something about him to him about bullpens too? Like, did you say something? You were talking about how quick he is, right?

Yeah. You know what he told me? Yeah. You already told me also he's doing a bullpen. He's trying to throw it as fast as he can, like faster than the pitch clock. Yeah. So that when he gets out of the mound, everything slower. And he doesn't think that's probably had a little bit of an effect to just trying to speed him up and make him feel Like he needs to go. Yeah, and

That's a that we that was another thing we talked about he asked me like hey Yeah, I because I know you did some stuff in the pen for he came back from anxiety to fix work on the clock What'd you do? I was like I went out of the wind up that was because I'm just too slow I'm just too slow at everything I do so So I was just like, I'm just slow. I'm a slow guy. So if I take a step to the side, it stopped. I don't worry about it anymore. That and then I just like challenged the clock. I was like, give me a bad violation. I don't care. I got one of the miners never got one of the big leagues because I just yeah, he had something about speed on the mound and the clock that he was dealing with, I think.

And he's been a lot better and it's awesome to watch. But I'm a big, because again, he's in another one of those, I think you'll agree, another one of those thoughtful, very curious guys. And that when you have that type of stuff, you're really curious. There's just a matter. It's just a matter of time. And so he's a guy to pay attention to. I don't know when, fantasy people, but this kid is striking out everybody and it'll happen,

but it might be a little bit out. Well, I think the surprises might be different. That's what makes them surprised in the first place. The thing that gets fixed in pitching next might be something that hasn't been fixed very often historically. Horrible walk rates are one thing that you look back at the leaderboards in the last 15, 20 years, you don't see a lot of success stories that run 12, 13, 14% walk rates. Because we were looking for this, I think we were talking about Edward Cabrera earlier in the season, we're like, okay, what's the best case outcome for someone that walks this many guys? And you're like, uh, maybe Edinson Volquez. And you're like, that's not a great outcome.

But if we get to a point where there are ways to improve command and control. To take a walk rate and get it from 14% down to 7%, that completely changes everything about Joe Boyle, like in, in one fell swoop. Absolutely. Yeah. You got it. You got Yeah, you got to. I think it comes down to I also I bring myself up so much that it's feeling kind of gross at this point. But I had terrible command minus like that was a huge problem.

Like I walked 70 and 90 innings one time like and they got sent down after maybe the All-Star team in high. So it's like it was an issue that people like, violators thought that I would not be able to fix. I had like a 7% walk rate all the way from the minors to the starter. That's just too many. And I got to the big leagues and I just made it,

I'm just like, I'm like, I don't know about command, but I'm gonna have good control. I'm just gonna use the box and then give up. And I gave it more hits, but that, I knew that- That was a mindset thing. Yeah, so maybe, yeah, cause I didn't to give up it like you mentioned when you said, oh, I can't throw over the plate because it'll get hit hard and I got a calling thrown the dirt away that that is definitely I'd rather walk

around and give a party hard contact makes you feel less bad. I'm a young guy and then I got to the big leagues. I'm like if I do that the big leagues, I just won't get any opportunities. I'll just go back. That's why But if I throw strikes, you have more patients, patients. And that was the best decision I ever made. Just like letting my letting go and just giving up the hits to the big league hitters and then figuring it out from there and being letting your defense work enough and then figure out to strike them out, which I did eventually.

But, uh, that was, I remember being terrified in my head because it was so different, uh, Pepeo said like he, when he got up and he you know he wasn't even with the best of working seasons but he was like oh my stuff can play so then he was like I'm just gonna throw it in the zone like I'm you know part of it was just yeah just many of those are there like many working to the edges when you get the opportunity but as does doing the opposite where he's come in too much in the zone he's's 55% zone rate for the first two games. And he got he got hit around a little bit and he's doing the curvy where he's kind of expanding back out. But Joe Ryan had that problem too when he first, yeah, way too many strikes. And they're like, can you try to get some chases

and be okay with throwing some balls and he's been a lot better since too. But some guys are too good in the zone, which is really funny for me to think about because I couldn't even wrap my head around that at 21 years old. Yeah. Mentality is such a huge thing. We don't know from the outside, unless we get a chance to talk to players and ask them, Hey, what, what are you trying to do? What's the, what's the approach?

Then like, you know, when I'm talking to Schweli, he's, he's just like, he's just a mellow dude. He's just a cool mellow dude. A lot of guys just think it's like what everyone thinks, how they think. And it's, it's crazy how different we all do think about it. Like what we're trying to do. We don't even realize that there's also the difference in that in the mound presence, right?

Yeah. Like he's talking to me about in their thing. He's going to be like, yeah, yeah, that's cool. And then up there, he might be dropping F bombs. Like, have you ever talked to Rich Hill? I love Rich Hill. Like Rich Hill is great. He's amazing. He's so cerebral.

But he gets out there. He just turns into the freaking Massachusetts, you know freaking tornado. It brings out the best in him, I guess. I mean that's the only way I could look at it. But yeah, a lot of interesting names we didn't talk about, of course, but those were a few that we kind of thought were intriguing that could take a big step might not be treated like ACEs in 2025 or fantasy baseball purposes, but could return

something closer to ACE type of value over the course of the year, I guess. Hunter Brown fits more to the doing it since about May this year. He started to look more like one of those guys. Oh, I wish. Yeah. This is a really great one about like, Hey, new fastball, you know, Hey, like you're, you're spraying the fast or you're, you're too forcing heavy. Everyone loves your force.

They're all looking for your forcing. You give it to them. Stop doing that. Like throw a sinker too. Went from unrosterable in April to a guy that will help you possibly win a title for the last five months, which is a pretty quick turnaround for the season of Hunter Brown. We need to go on our way out the door. Reminder, you can find us on Twitter. Trevor is at imtrevormay, Enos at Enosaris, I'm at Derek and Ryan for the Plot, is at Rates and Barrels. Join our Discord. The link is in the show description.

If you got a question for a future episode, you can send those to the discord or you can email us rates and barrels at gmail.com. That's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening. Thanks for listening.