Rates & Barrels - John Sterling Retires, Rivalry Heat Check & A Case for the Cubs

Episode Date: April 16, 2024

Eno, DVR and Britt discuss John Sterling's abrupt retirement after 36 years with the Yankees, the Marlins' surprising decision to send Max Meyer back to Triple-A, the current state of baseball rivalries including a few potential new feuds that could develop. Plus, they discuss the Cubs as a potential top-five team for the next five years, before a round of 'Buy, Sell, Hold'.  Rundown 1:07 John Sterling Abruptly Announces Retirement 6:03 The Changing Role of Baseball Broadcasters 11:25 Why Did the Marlins Option Max Meyer to Triple-A? 17:50 Baseball's Rivalry Heat Check 24:20 New Rivalries On the Horizon? 29:30 The Case for the Cubs as a Top-Five Team for the Next Five Years 43:46 Buy, Sell, Hold: Tyler O'Neill's Excellent Start in Boston 47:29 Buy, Sell, Hold: Francisco Lindor's Quiet Bat, When to Actually Worry About Early-Season Slumps 56:21 Buy, Sell, Hold: Joe Musgrove Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghroli e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Tuesday April 16th, Derek VanRyper, you know, Sarah's Britcher Oli here with you on this episode. We've got some big news in Yankee land. John Sterling announced his retirement on Monday. We'll talk about Sterling's legacy as a long time voice for baseball's probably most historic franchise. We're gonna talk about a curious decision made by the Marlins on Monday.

Max Meyer sent AAA after a really good weekend start against Atlanta. We're gonna dig into a few rivalries, a heat check on rivalries if you will, talk about the most intense rivalries around the league right now. We had a great listener email suggesting we may have forgotten the Cubs as a possible top five team

for the next five years based on the quality of their system, their ability to spend money, so we'll talk about that. And time permitting, we got some buy, sell, hold lined up for the end of this episode as well. Let's get right to it. Let's start with the most surprising news of Monday, which is actually the John Sterling retirement, mostly because of timing, right? It's the middle of April where you have this guy just decide, no, I'm done. And that's more or less what he said. I was reading a story about what he said to Michael K. He just didn't want to do it anymore,

which is not usually what you hear people say when they walk away from a job they had for as long as Sterling had that one. Thirty six years with the Yankees and certainly a style all his own. Right. I mean, his home run calls are unique. They are legendary. I think if you are, if you're not a Yankees fan, the first time you'd hear one, you'd be like, wait, what did he just say? And why is he singing? But the more you listen to him, even if you were not a Yankees fan, the first time you'd hear one, you'd be like, wait, what did he just say? And why is he singing?

But the more you listen to him, even if you were not a Yankees fan, I think the more of that style sort of grew on you. A hundred percent. Like I, I, the first time, the first time I heard it, like the first few times, I mean, for a while, I really disliked him. Just to be honest, like I was living in New York. I was like, what is this? It's like some weird, like, you know, reminded me a little bit of Hawk

Harrelson, but like, you know, a little bit smarter, you know, but like also just kind of hokey at first I thought I was just like, this is, but it does grow on you. I mean, the one thing that I like is like, I say this a lot, but like, at least they have an ethos, like at least he had like a style, you know, like you may not have loved the style, but like, at least he had a a style, you know, like you may not have loved the style, but like at least he had a style. He tried something. He did something different, you know? So I enjoyed that about him.

Yeah. I mean, I was in New York briefly in 09 and I feel like when you meet him, you realize that it's authentic. I think sometimes broadcasters kind of have a tendency to kind of create, badly want to create their vibe and their lane and their special calls. And then you meet John and you realize that's just how he is in person in general, like, the Yankees win. That's him in the elevator with you. So to me, once I got to know him a little bit and you know, you then get new appreciation listening because what you're seeing isn't him trying to be weird and be like, it is high, it is far, it is gone. Like it is him taking his love for the game and just putting it out there on the airwaves.

And you know, is he going to give us the advanced analytics? No, he's not because he wasn't into that and he didn't pretend us the advanced analytics? No, he's not, because he wasn't into that and he didn't pretend to be, right? Like I think what you can do the most as a voice in the game is just be authentic, right? Just be yourself. And I think he did that and people recognize that. And he did that for a very long time.

We're not going to see another John Sterling because I think as somebody who kind of relays the game to so many people now, you need to give the advanced stats and you need to embrace the information that's out there. And so I think the Sterling and Susan Waldman booth was criticized a lot for not doing that, but it's part of what made them unique and it's part of what earned them such a cult following, right? Like that's baseball, Susan.

Like that was put on t-shirts by Roto-wear. And I think what's so cool about the whole thing is that he retired his, he did it his way, right? Like he could have said, this is my last season and enjoyed little like ceremonies, the whole, you know, he could have had a lot of pop and circumstance on the way out. Instead, he woke up one day and was like, that's it for me, Susan, that's all. And then he can't say anything about this guy without saying that like he is authentic, right? Like he just realized, you know what, I'm old, I'm tired. I'm done with this now.

And instead of saying, I wonder how much heads up he gave the Yankees, right? Didn't sound like much cause he's talking to Kay about like not wanting to do it much longer than he's like, and I'm done. Yeah, Brendan Cutty for the Athletic recently did a Q&A with him where he said, I'm almost done. And I think that's where we saw it. We think we all thought like, oh, another year or two. Not like, oh, he was going to wake up mid-April and be like, I told you guys I was almost done. I'm done. Right. But again, I think when you get to know the person, you realize that like, it is authentic. Like he

could have if he cared about attention or his legacy done this and had like a retirement tour and he just didn't have any interest in that at all. Like he did it. He loved it. He didn't love it. And then he left. That's basically how it went. He's 85. I mean, it's OK to want to pursue the last other things you're interested in in life. You know, what are you supposed to do in your 85? You don't like doing something. Stop doing it. I think that's the next logical thing. So congrats to John Sterling on a great career and again, a style all his own. And I think the more much like you said, I had the same vibe, but the Hawk-Harrison uniqueness. I think the more much like, you know, said I had the same vibe, but the Hawk Harrelson uniqueness, I think Hawk is the only other play

by play announcer I can recall that would even be in the same stratosphere as far as how unusual his home run calls were. And the Homer ism also pretty strong in John Sterling as well. It's true for many broadcasters. I think it's a role that's changing a lot though. I think to Britt's point, you do have to understand how the game is played now. You have to understand analytics.

You have to be able to consume and digest that information and then bring it to your listeners and viewers in a way where they can understand it. And that's a really challenging job, right? I think we've talked about Jason Benetti kind of being one of the younger broadcasters that seems to find that line. There's still personality, but there's still really good information too. Bug Shambi does it well.

So that's sort of like the next wave. I kind of feel like those are the upper bounds of personality in a baseball broadcaster for that generation. Whereas the Sterling, the Leif Vinscully, the Bob Euker, like that generation, that's pretty much gone once this group of announcers is gone. You know what's interesting? There's a, the, you didn't quite say it this way, but you, the more that we do analysis and the more that we want analysis with our, you know, like more like sort of cold, sober

statistical analysis, or maybe like sort of, you know, more that we want research behind the things that our announcers are saying, the more that we want kind of like, not so much homerism. That seems to be the trend in a way. It's like, I'd rather you tell it straight. You know, I'd rather hear the straight story rather than, you know, poof us up. But you know, there is something maybe to be lost. I think of how excited Dave Sims was. There was a, he made, he was doing an announcement. He was doing a game for the Mariners late last season. I don't know.

Maybe it was the Cal rally Homer that like, I think it like put him in the postseason or something. Yes. And, and Sims like just lost it. And in such a great way, uh, that must've been really cathartic for a lot of people in Seattle that were, that were, you know, had been fans for a long time and suffering for some time at the hands of the Mariners. So there's gotta be, I hope, um, you know, a mix.

I would assume so. gotta be, I hope, um, you know, a mix. I would assume so. Um, but you know, it would be sad if we kind of in, in getting more sober kind of stat, stat based analysis that we lost some of that Homerism because they, they are the voice of like when I was growing up as Sid Bream rounding third, you know, and like, I can hear the call. So that's, that's like, there has to be some amount of homers. And a lot of times they're employed by the team.

You know, it's like they're kind of hype men. Yeah. Yeah. I think you need to be a little more hype on the radio, too, because I don't know about you guys, but I listen. I walk my dog a lot at night and I like put a game on. And like those people are they need to get you hype because you can't see anything. They have to be everything for you.

Where I think on TV you can let things play out. You can have a little silence while something is going on because we're seeing the reaction. We're seeing the players do things. But I feel like on the radio, you need like the Sterlings and you need a little bit of that like, it is gone because you just, you need something to react to. so I think it's the medium a little bit too. Mediums changing I mean it's becoming less important over time I think that's the other reason why that craft is sort of a thing of the past in some ways or at least that version of the craft. But I wonder what will baseball on the radio or streaming baseball

audio sound like 25 years from now? Like who will be calling those games and what will it be? Because I do think that personality is important to have. I think that makes it makes following the game a lot more enjoyable like that. I think for most people who listen to baseball, it's the soundtrack of every summer of your life. Like you you have it, it's just there. It's always in the background.

If you're not watching a game on TV, you're driving somewhere, you're going to a cabin, you're on vacation, you're going to work, whatever it is you're doing, it's always there. But the TV announcers is an interesting thing. Have you seen this thing? There was this thing, I forget exactly what it is, but it was like, um, some feedback

that Netflix had gotten about their streaming and that they wanted to make it less interesting because people were, were second screening. So people that were streaming, you know, uh, we're streaming shows and streaming movies wanted to like, basically wanted to look at their phone, but wanted to have something on and they didn't, they would lose the plot if it was too complicated of a plot. So there was like this like feedback that Netflix got that they needed to make their shows less interesting or less complicated. So, um, I, I feel like, and then, uh, John was hilarious retweeted and was

like, that's baseball. That's what baseball was invented for. It is a good second screen. So it is. It really is. I'd like even at our house, we'll have baseball. We have baseball on 24 seven, but we often have other screens going at the same time.

And so I wonder if that also dovetails with less personality, at least for the TV announcers. You need that voice or those voices to break you out of your second screen. That's when you look up, when the announcer is saying something like with the excited voice. Yeah. I mean, look, if you want to talk about a team that is a prime second screen experience

right now, it's the Marlins. This is a rough situation, three and 14 to start the season, and they take arguably their best healthy pitcher right now, Max Meyer, and option him to triple A on Monday. I saw the quote from Peter Bendix. They had several meetings about it. It didn't sound like they had a consensus plan. It was more of, I don't know, the youngest guy that had options left and based on the schedule they felt like this was the right thing to do.

But I looked at their schedule. There are no off days. They could have shuffled things around, had guys on regular rest and not sent Max Meyer down. I think the thing that bothers me about this, and it happens with other teams too, so we don't have to just dunk on the Marlins for 10 minutes or anything like that. Max Meyer had 23 swinging strikes

against the Braves on Saturday. And we spent all of last year and most of this winter talking about how that lineup is a historically great lineup. And I believe that, I think they are that good. So if you have a guy who comes out and performs that well against that lineup and two days later, you're like, sorry, man, we got to watch your innings. We're going to send you down to triple A, maybe have you do some short starts. What are we doing as a sport?

Like that is a gross process error, no matter which team chooses to do that. Because even if we're talking about a guy with so little big league experience, I could sit here and reasonably say, if he gets knocked around for the next three starts, you've got a reason to send him down. Like if he's really bad for a stretch, he's still inexperienced enough.

But how you make that call two days after he pitched that well, he's pitched well across the board this year. And think about it from the workload perspective. He's a college guy whose last season at the University of Minnesota got cut off by COVID, canceling the year. He's had Tommy John. His highest workloads are in the low triple digits for innings in a season. How are you ever going to let him be a regular starter if you're going to play a stop start game with his workload and mess around with him like this, it just seems like a miss on so many levels. Yeah.

I think didn't we even read in this latest injury stuff, there was some, there was a piece of analysis that said that like, uh, it's better to continuously throw and period, periodize it. Like we were talking about rather than to Then to to make to have big stops like you know So that's a little bit weird also to me Ryan Weathers is right there Ryan Weathers eRA estimators are closer to five You know he's not doesn't have the same upside And I wonder you mentioned youngest

there are these weird things in baseball that have to do with like seniority and just like, well, he's the older young player. So Ryan Weathers stays up. That doesn't make any sense to me. But maybe this is a straight tanking move where they're like, we're more likely to win a game with Max Meyer pitching. So let's send it down. Oh, I hope it's not that Meyer is a little older than Ryan Weathers. Or service time. Weathers has more service time.

But so weird to have that be the deciding factor. Yeah, it's like, I don't know. It's a bad message to send on a good team. It's an even worse message to send on a bad team, I think. Like, we know the Marlins aren't good. Here's a ray of tiny glimmer of hope. You should, especially on a team that bad, you should know that if you perform, you can stay because this is a bad team.

Especially because of the way they changed the CBA to do away with like service time manipulations. So you wonder what this does mentally to a guy like that. You wonder what this does mentally to a guy like that, you wonder what this does mentally to other guys that are in the minor leagues, or on the Marlins. So I think this decision sends a lot of bad messages, a lot of ripple effects, like we know how mental this game is. Here Max Myer, what are you thinking now? Right? If you wanted to save his innings, why can't you Phantom DL him? Because people have been doing that forever.

Why can't you at least let him be on the big league DL and get paid? You are literally taking money from him in this move. Yeah, that too. Yeah. I think it's it's really simple. Like, I think if you have a history of injuries and you're on a team that's unlikely to go to the playoffs this year and that is the nicest way to say that's the state of the 2024 Miami Marlins. You front load the innings.

You don't try to stretch them out and have them pitching in the last week. Every five days, make it as normal as possible. Regular schedule. When he gets to 140, 150, whatever your number is. Great. Then you're good. Because if he gets hurt while you're messing around with this and he doesn't get up to 140, 150 or 160, you just cut off your own runway for time.

So just use that to your advantage as an organization. I don't understand why this is happening. Hopefully, you know, 10 days from now, we're talking about Max Meyer getting bumped back up to the big leagues, but they had everybody else in the rotation except for Edward Cabrera with minor league options remaining and they had guys in the bullpen they could have optioned down. They could have bumped Puck into a relief role temporarily. I wonder how long they're going to stick with AJ Puck as a starter. I mean, the first start was brutal. The second two were not as bad, but still not what you're looking for. So I just wonder how long they're going to mess

with something like that because they seem to think they've got a ton of pitching right now. were not as bad, but still not what you're looking for. So I just wonder how long they're gonna mess with something like that. Because they seem to think they've got a ton of pitching right now. And I think they've got maybe an adequate amount of pitching. No, I don't think that they think they have a ton of pitching. I think that they're scrambling to make it adequate.

I mean, we saw some rumors that they were thinking about maybe even trading Luis Reyes for a pitcher. They should, they really should. They should do it like soon. Derek loves the early trades. This is some sort of scrambling, I think. This is just scrambling and it just went the wrong way. Just pulled the wrong straw, didn't have a good plan

and ended up drawing the straw that got them criticized the most. I think I might have faced with these decisions just put puck in the bullpen. The command is really bad as a starter. I think I would have optioned Ryan Weathers. That's the bullpen. The command is really bad as a starter. I think I would have optioned Ryan Weathers. That's the other option. It's easier to stomach that.

I mean, he's got an 18.5% K rate. Sierra's up close to five. There's, yes, the ERA is low, but it's not real. I think that's the simple move and you're in a much better place as an org if you go that route. Moving on, let's do a rivalry heat check. What are the league's best rivalries right now? Is it fair to say that rivalries have

ebbs and flows? There are constants. Yankees Red Sox will always be a rivalry from now until forever. It will always be a rivalry, but on the intensity scale, if it's a one to 10, it probably can't fall below like a five or a six. It might be at a lower end of that range right now, right? So what rivalries are currently at the top of that scale? What ones feel the most intense because of recent games that mattered, bad blood? Like what kind of jumps off the page for each of you?

Well, don't the Padres Dodgers feel like one now? After everything with ProFa? I think so. And the Padres kind of winning that last series. And I think it's an example of the Padres wanted it to be a rivalry for a while, but couldn't compete with the Dodgers over the last couple of years, they've closed that gap. And I think now what you're seeing

is a lot of bad blood between these teams. That's like really bubbling over. So I think that's- What was the Profar said again? Oh, they called, Will Smith called Profar irrelevant. That's right. And then Profar goes on hits of bases clearing double.

Had a nice catch in that last game. And the Padres Twitter, official Twitter account said like, seems relevant to us. And they tweeted the hit. Like there is some like great trolling going on. So that jumps out as one. I think, I think you're right.

The Yankees Red Sox will always be one. But to me, it's really a down one right now because the Red Sox just aren't competitive. I think what we're going to start to see is the Orioles and Yankees duke it out because a lot of people expect the two of them to be the one and two in the AL East. And listen, they could be the two best teams in the AL. And so I think what you're going to start to see as we get past April, let me get into like July, August, September, is an actual heated rivalry. And for a long time, it was kind of like the Padres Dodgers. The Orioles fans hated Yankees fans. I mean, I spent nine years on the Orioles beat

and you could just tell, you know, the Yankees would come in, they'd take over the stadium. It would be like a Yankees home game. And then once the Orioles have gotten good, that's gotten a little bit better. But you know, they very much have that like little brother complex in Baltimore when it comes to the Yankees.

And so now that they're good, I think the Yankees have are going to start to kind of go from an apathetic fan base toward the Orioles, like they didn't really care to now be like, wait, the only way to win is through this team. So I think that is going to start to grow this season. That's like on my trending up rivalries. When I think, you know, I'm thinking about like the different things that need to go into it and proximity is a big one. You know, you're talking about like exactly what happened with the Dodgers and Giants

and the Padres. There were long times, you know, in the Padres history that you would go and there'd be more Giants fans at the game or more Dodgers fans at the game than there would be Padres fans. And as the Padres have gotten better, the stadium itself becomes a microcosm of what the rivalry, the state of rivalry is instead of the visiting team having more people. Now there's more Padres fans there. There's more Padres fans to yell at the giants and Dodgers fans that are there.

So there's a, there's an in-stadium rivalry that big, that starts to spill over into the players and onto the screens and onto onto social media. You know, there's a the flip side of this is we've had some rivalries that were further away. And, you know, for example, the Braves and Mets, like, I don't think there's a lot of Mets fans of Braves games and vice versa. They they managed to keep that one going for a while, I think just because they were both good. And when they were both good, that was a decent rivalry. I would have to say that that feels like it's fallen off a little bit. And one of the interesting proxies that I have for like the state of a rivalry is just how many trades do they make with each other, you know, um, and

what you'll see is teams make fewer trades, um, in division. And so for example, the, the smallest, I think the Padres have made trades with everybody, um, but in division, you've got basically the D backs, uh, Dodgers, um, you know, down there with like six trades each and the Rockies. So those are the fewest trades they've made. What if you flip over to the New York Mets page the the the team that they made the most trades with over the history of the Braves franchise of the Mets franchise has been the Braves. They made forty trades with the Braves the closest otherwise is the Royals with thirty eight. The closest otherwise is the Royals with 38. And then there's a lot around 20 and 30.

So I think that's a little bit of a weird asterisk there on the Braves-Mets rivalry. If they were truly as big rivals as we thought they were for such a long time, would they really have the most trades with each other in history? That seems like a little bit of a strange asterisk on there. This seems a little lopsided, right? Like it seems like Mets fans want it to be more

of a rivalry than I think Braves fans do because the Braves have been so good, right? That's kind of how it feels. You know what else we didn't talk about is the Texas rivalry, Houston and Texas, which I think we all saw bubble over in a big way last year in the playoffs. Yeah, they always had the geographic rivalry,

but being in the AL West together now, I think is a big deal for year in the playoffs. Yeah, they always had the geographic rivalry, but being in the AL West together now, I think is a big deal for Astros Rangers. That one has intensified a little bit because I think both of those teams had some stretches where they were pretty bad. Now they're both good again at the same time. Were they rivals when they weren't in the same league? Back when Houston was in the NL Central. Those were weird times.

For a while, remember they rebuild like, but definitely I think we've seen the apex now because Houston has owned the like the postseason. And you know, they, if you remember Houston came and stole the division in those last few days from Texas and Alex Bregman had that big locker room speech that went viral that was like, they wanted to know what would happen if the Astros didn't win the AL West. I guess we'll never know. Like, right? Like, like there was such a, so much hatred that like by the time they faced each other, like if you remember, there was a lot going on in that series. There was a lot of anger. Remember they kept hitting Adolas? Garcia? There was just a lot of tempers there.

Where is there like a potential for a new one to unfold? I think about expansion a little bit where, you know, like if there was a Portland team, you could have a Portland Seattle. You know, I don't know that Seattle is like natural rivals really with anybody that off the top of my head, maybe I'm missing something there. Like the central, what are the big rivalries in the central? Like they're close enough to each other. They play each other a lot.

Cubs Cardinals. I mean, Cubs Cardinals is probably the biggest. But yeah, yeah, Cubs Cardinals is a real one. That's a real one. That one's a classic all time. Like you'll find it on any, any list, any article about it in the AL Central. What is the worst long-term rivalry? I feel like it changes so much that that one is one where maybe the

best rivalry is yet to come. Like if you were trying to pick two teams in that division, who are going to go toe to toe for the next five years. Tiger's guardians. I mean, they, at least in terms of. Tiger's guardians. Yeah terms of, or Royals, Tigers Royals, they've got the, these young players, the young position players that are coming into their own there. Yeah. Yeah.

That's a good one. That could be where that one is, but yeah, I mean, on the NL side in the central, I feel like those are clear. I mean, I think the Cubs fans for a long time have done exactly what you described Yankees fans doing to Baltimore, where they show up in Milwaukee, act like they own the place. Brewers fans hate that. So Brewers Cubs, it's like the Cubs Cardinals is the bigger rivalry for them. But I do think Brewers Cubs is the biggest rivalry for Brewers fans. That's the funny thing about a rivalry is

like your biggest rival might not see you as a mutual biggest rival. Yeah. The pirates were scrappy and started a bunch of fights with a bunch of people. Was a pirate's reds kind of was a thing for a while. They had a bunch of fights. Is fights like a prerequisite for rivalry? You need some scrappy guys. You need some scrappy guys and you need guys who aren't afraid to like pop off. Right.

You need some quotes. You need some quotables. There was a reason why like Jose Bautista seemed to always be involved in stuff. Josh Donaldson, right, like AJ Przezinski, like these guys all said whatever popped into their heads and they finally like fed into that. You know, so I think it involves a little bit of that too.

Like, if we don't get the irrelevant quote from Will Smith, is that serious enough? Yeah, and like, has Giants Dodgers falling off a little bit of that too. Like, we don't get the irrelevant quote from Will Smith. Yeah. Is that serious enough? Yeah. He's juicy. Has Giants Dodgers fallen off because the Giants haven't been so good or because the Giants have had a lot of milk toast veterans that don't really give, you know, quotes like that. Like Logan Webb is the closest guy you have to someone who might give you a quote

on that on that front. And I don't know if it's just enough, you know, Giants Dodgers does not feel as fresh of a rivalry anymore as Cubs Cardinals, which is, you know, just as has been around as long as as as, you know, that longer even than Giants Dodgers. But Cubs Cardinals just seems like it's it'll be there no matter how good either team is. You know, that's how that's how intense a rivalry. And I think Yankees Red Sox is still there. I know you make a good point that the Red Sox haven't been as good recently, but I think, you know, I've seen meaningless gains

between the Yankees and Red Sox where I was heckled for wearing a red shirt. You know, it's just like, like what? Oh, yeah, I guess my shirt is red. What? The Red Sox were in the ALCS in 2021. That wasn't that long ago. They're above 500 right now. So it's so much narrative on that team. My God, but the Yankees and Red Sox,

when they're just a little bit down, they're the worst teams in the world according to their fans. But to be fair, Derek, if you're a Red Sox fan, what have they done to earn your trust? Oh, nothing. The way they're running the team right now is obnoxious. They're not acting like themselves.

We've talked about that before, but, and the funny thing about them right now is defensively, they are just snowball fights. Like that is what the Red Sox have been in the early weeks of the season. So I get the frustration with how they're playing generally right now. Pitching, coming through for Eno so far though too.

But I could see Braves-Philly's could over Braves Mets in the NL East. They've had some big, they've big postseason games against each other. You know, they're at the top of that division. They've said there have been some quotables back and forth, you know. So, you know, you had the whole was it was it Bryce Harper staring down? The was Braves player, wasn't it? Arcia, Orlando Arcia. Yeah, Arcia.

Yes. I think we need a team closer to Atlanta for the Braves to have like a deep seated rivalry. Oh, there's expansion, baby, Charlotte and Nashville. Charlotte, yeah, I think Charlotte somehow seems more likely to me, but that's for another day. I mean, numbers say it's a better market, but Nashville, the players, I think, prefer one Nashville.

Because a lot of them live there. But it's going to take forever. A, you got to get a team and B, you have to become good. Right. It's going to take a while. They're going to try and make it arrive away with lots of like games against each other and the Braves will just spank them for like the first five years of their existence. Yeah.

I wonder if we'll see anything pop up out of the NL Central from the Pirates Reds, like you mentioned before, or something like that. Depends on which of those teams actually hit their peak. We talked about, just two weeks ago, top five teams primed for the next five years. We got an email from Greg, one of our listeners. And Greg wants to know if we maybe overlooked the Cubs. We talked an email from Greg, one of our listeners, and Greg wants to know if we

maybe overlooked the Cubs. We talked about how both Chicago teams have a spending advantage, or at least should have a spending advantage relative to the other central division teams in each league. Greg writes, I think it's probably fair to say the four of the five NL Central Major League teams are roughly comparable as there was so much talk about their farm system. The Brewers have a fine system ranked number two by Keith Law, three by Pipeline, six by Bleacher Report. On those rankings, the Cubs were fifth, second and second. And even though they don't have a Jackson Churio type player, they have a lot of players in the top 25, top 50, top 100 of various lists. Plus, of course, they could spend. So when you start looking at the Cubs and you kind

of put the pieces together, farm system, which I think is good, as Greg points out, I think Keith has them fifth in his latest organizational farm system rankings that are up on the athletic. Do we look at what they have coming and pairing that with what they've got on the roster right now, do we actually see a team

that's primed to do exceptionally well? Do they belong in that top tier? Are they in that next five group, kind of team six through 10 for the next five years? Where do you each evaluate the Cubs based on where they stand right now? That's a tough one. I would not probably knock a team out of our top five for them. I think they're probably six to ten. I mean the problem is is you look at this team and yeah they're their prospects I think are coming along. What I want to know

is like are the Cubs going to get back into that upper echelon of spending again? Are they going to they're they're not the Red Sox, but they also have sometimes I think claimed to be more constrained by things when Wrigley Field technically, I think is like a historic landmark and they get all kinds of tax breaks from the way that Wrigley Field is designated. Correct. They own their own TV channel now. Right. Like I think the money is flowing in and I would love to know and Ricketts have done a good job of saying like we want to compete and GMs now are just, you know, it's hard to see if it's ownership or GMs because GMs are very much like following their models now. But I just, for me, I would like to see the Cubs kind of flex their muscle a little bit more in free agency and get these like top tier guys and really make a splash.

And I don't know if they've done that. I mean, they've gotten like the Suzuki's and they've resigned Bellinger and they've made these like smaller moves. But when I look at like, are they going to be an organization that gets close and goes, we're pushing our chips in? Are they going to do what Texas did? I don't know. Yeah, there is a weird thing with the spending.

They're at 224 million, says Roster Resource, so they're right up against the luxury tax. It's not so much spend or not. It's the type of spending is a little bit weird. They've always gotten the second or third or fourth best free agent. You know what I mean? Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. They've never won the winter, which like you don't have to, but also you're the Chicago Cubs. And so what ends up

being is like it does like the roster is bloated contract wise and like 224 is like a decent amount of spending. But then you look and you're like, okay, so they, they got a lot of, okay, like, okay, like Bellinger I don't think is the MVP. Danzi Swanson is like a fine shortstop. Ian Happ is fine. Seiya Suzuki, I was thinking he might break out this year, but you know, maybe he's just okay and, and Tyon is, you know, hasn't been great yet, but maybe he'll be okay. Everyone just seems to be like kind of okay. And, um, and that's a little bit weird is like, that's how I feel about their prospects too.

Uh, like I just don't see, you know, P Crowe Armstrong strikes out a lot. Owen Cassie strikes out a lot. A lot of their like prospect hitters strike out a lot. And that doesn't mean they can't be good major League hitters but it's there's no like guy who strikes out 10% of the time and you know has a 250 ISO and runs and is play center field like there's no like here's the jewel and that's you can even see that's even reflected in the rankings you said it like oh there's a bunch of top 100 guys how many top 50 guys are there how many top 25 guys are there do they have one top 10 guy you know it's like like if I was doing these rankings isn't he yeah he's he's a little How many top 25 guys are there? Do they have one top 10 guy?

You know, it's like, like if I was doing his rankings. Isn't he? Yeah, he's like a notch. He's just outside the top 10 on most lists. Like Keith has him 18th. And I personally might have dinged, I might ding him more for what's happened because the strikeout rate joined through the roof

and the power doesn't seem real. I mean. I wonder how much of the strikeout rate jumping is the automated balls and strikes system at AAA and how much of that's a hit to a problem. He's been so young for the level everywhere he's played. Like I'm willing to give him a lot more time. And I think the reason Pete Crow Armstrong

has popped on prospect list for a long time is because he was going to be a gold glove caliber center fielder from the day he was drafted. The Mets originally drafted him. The expectation was he could play center field in the big leagues right now. Wasn't a good idea coming out of high school, of course, cause the bat wasn't ready, but that's how good of a defender he was at that age. So like that buys you a lot of time in the big leagues, even if you are amazing

glove average below average bat, you're still probably a two and a half wind player most years. So that's something I think it depends on where you fall in Matt Shaw as a hitter. We saw Kevin Alcantara in the fall league. I just thought he looked tired. He was in the home run derby. I think he was in the fall stars game too.

Full big strikeout, right? Yeah. Yeah, like so I'm not locked in on Kevin Alcantara just yet, but I also have seen plenty of guys that were just tired in the fall league who ended up being fine once they rested and came back and moved up a level. So I think it's a good group of prospects. I'm not fighting that at all. I think Cade Horton is really important for them because I think he might be

better than a lot of the other pitching that they've developed. There's a pretty big gap between where you'll find Cade Horton on a prospect list and where you're going to find someone like Ben Brown, who we're already seeing right now. Maybe they got a big hit in that Michael Bush trade. Five straight games with the homer, he's been red hot to start the season. So that'd be a nice boost to the core if they actually found a key bat like that

in an expensive trade. But like, remember the old Cubs that like came together with the Rizzo and the. Right, the Rizzo, Baez, Bryant. Did they have that? They didn't retain those guys. I think this group is a little less than that. That's how I feel. Just a little bit.

I think there's six to ten. Maybe it's deeper. I think it's a good point to bring them up. I don't know if I put them in the top five. I think to Britt's point, and this is something that happens to other, that happens to the Giants a lot too. Oh, they don't win the top players.

There's only a few top players to go around and that's been increasingly difficult. So when we look at Juan Soto, who's going to be the best position player free agent available in the winter, only one team is going to get Juan Soto. So it's probably the Yankees and that means the Cubs and the giants and everybody else is a loser. You're going to be fighting for the second and third and fourth best free agency. Right. They'll be throwing darts at Pete Alonzo or Alex Bregman, right?

And those are good players too. And they'll be impact guys, they'll fit really well. Most places they're likely to go. But I do think something has changed in terms of just the number of players you can get that are like ultra wins as blockbuster free agents. That just, it's kind of rare. There aren't that many of those. That just, it's kind of rare.

There aren't that many of those players extensions, you know, to players have seen that the free agent market, it's like almost a, a self-fulfilling prophecy. The players see that the free agent market doesn't seem as lucrative anymore, especially if you're not the number one guy out there. Right. So if you're not, if you don't necessarily think you're the number one guy, then you think you should take an extension. If you take an extension, you take yourself off the market

and you make the market worse. So it's kind of the self-fulfilling prophecy. And the more that younger guys will take it to get security, and I don't blame them, but that keeps them out of the market too. So these extensions, I think, are making the market worse. So the other question with the Cubs before we move on is what are their organizational strengths?

Like what do you think the best attributes of the organization are? Are they good at developing young hitters? Are they good in trades? Are they good at finding old undervalued players? Are they good at developing pitching that teams just don't scout properly? They find a guy and make them better, right? Is what they did with Justin Steele a repeatable skill that you would buy into? Like what is their DNA as an organization right now that would make them whatever it is they are,

whether they're top five, top 10. I'll keep them in that six to 10 range. I think they belong there. whatever it is they are, whether they're top five, top 10, I'll keep them in that six to 10 range. I think they belong there, but what makes them special as an organization? I'm not sure. I don't know if they have anything that stands out. I think they're like a quintessential

middle of the pack organization. I mean, they'd seem to do everything somewhat well, but do they have anything they do exceptionally well? We all would defer to, you know, who's way more into the stats. I think on the big league level, recognizing that Craig Council may give them an upgrade over David Ross is a risky move. And I think not only did they pay Craig Council a lot of money, but they invested in their big league coaches. They're paying big league coaches a lot of money. And I think that's important.

That's something that's a little bit like, you know, like the Giants did with 107 win team, feel like they can coach up their veterans. Interesting analysis must have gone behind that. So I do think that there is a link in the Cubs between analysis that is done by their R and D team and what ends up on the field. So that's good. There's a lot of teams that don't have that.

And the evidence I have of that is that the Cubs were big into cut ride, a type of fastball that steel throws. But there's a couple other examples of it in the organization. And they were probably out a little bit out in front of it. And they didn't give everybody a cut ride fastball, which is, you know, kind of what happened with the sweeper in some organizations. But instead, they gave the right people cut ride fastballs and it helped them. So, you know, I kind of feel like there's a little bit of a nation, you know, examples and some like good working between the R&D team and the rest of,

in terms of coaching and scouting and player development and we'll we'll see how Horton and Brown and Assad do those are the three young pitchers that I'm most excited about and if those guys hit the upper ends of their abilities then I think we can say that there is something because we do know there's been writing. been writing, Sahadev Sharma wrote a really nice piece about their pitching lab and the different things that they've done before Craig Breslau left. So there's been work on the pitching development pipeline. If we start to see that work, we'll get another piece of evidence that this is an analytically driven team where the scouts and the coaches and the R&D guys are all on the same page. So there's a little bit of maybe some evidence of that, but I wouldn't quite say that they are, the Astros of a couple of years ago,

where they seem to be doing everything right. Yeah, and I think the inverse of that question is, well, do they have any clear organizational weaknesses? No, I don't think they have any major flaws either. So that's a good spot to be. I think just being on the same page. Well, their prospects all striking out so much. Yeah.

Seems like a bit of a problem, but they're not major leaguers. Yeah. So their major leagues team doesn't strike out that much. So it could just be the normal sort of sloughing through of the prospect list that every team does. I think the thing I would want to dig into more closely with the prospects is are they striking out because they are not swinging enough?

The Jack Sawinski problem? Or are they striking out because they don't understand the zone that or do they have major holes? Or do they value, it could be a scouting thing too. Do they just value raw power over bat to ball? You know, like the guardians are the opposite of this. They obviously value bat to ball over almost anything else. Which didn't really work out though.

I think they were anticipating with the new rules last year that they'd kind of be ahead of the curve and it didn't really work out. You know, I have a piece today about young players adding power and maybe they thought, oh, we'll get another Francisco Lindor and another Jose Ramirez out of this process. And they haven't quite yet. I mean, Josh Nillard is the closest guy to a guy who's like hitting for power and making contact the kind of way they wanted. But they've run through Tyler Freeman, Brian Rocchio, Andre Cimenez.

They have a lot of guys who make contact but haven't really out of the power. Stephen Kwan. The other thing about the Cubs, last thought, is that the pitching is different. They do not seem to chase the same types of pitchers that other organizations do, right? And if they have a philosophy and that lab and they have that propensity to teach cut ride fastballs where appropriate, that seems like a much better plan than doing what everyone else is doing and just blowing through arms at an alarming rate, right? So maybe their approach leads them to healthier outcomes.

Maybe they develop fewer five war starters, but they have lots of guys that stay healthy and give them innings. And maybe that ends up making a difference for them in the long run as well. So I think that's the other kind of interesting thing about the way they have handled that aspect of the organization.

They develop Velo in the minor leagues, but their major leaguers don't know show plus Velo. So, yeah, there is still like some stuff where you look at the minor leagues and you look at the major leagues and you're like, are these the same organization? So maybe there's a disconnect there, but. Oh, maybe it's the it's just a disconnect there, but. Oh, maybe it's the it's just what they had. But they found guys that they could kind of use in the short term. And they're developing pictures that look more like other teams pictures right now.

That could also be possible. But I just think their rotation looks different and seems to get pretty decent results despite not having that velo. Let's move on to some buy sell hold. Scary collision for the first player we're gonna talk about. Tyler O'Neill ran into Rafael Devers. That is a lot of human running into another human.

So he's second in the league among qualified hitters in WRC plus this season. Exactly, this is why I was gonna ask you guys. It's hard for me to now opine on if he can keep it up because I don't know what kind of shape he did. Yeah, was he diagnosed with a concussion? He's in protocol right now. I think that just means they're checking him out.

Definitely seems like the kind of thing that could lead to a concussion, but let's just take what he's done to this point and put that out of the microscope. Are you buying into Tyler O'Neill being, let's just say the guy he was in 2021 again, because he's been red hot to start this season. And it's the kind of move that people in Boston

might not have been that excited about this winter, but through 15 games, I think Tyler O'Neill has given them plenty of reason to be excited so far. I think that like what you're seeing is the makings of a career year actually. I think he might even be better than 21 because what I'm seeing in the early going,

the kind of things that I care about in the early going are contact rate because the denominator is how many pitches has he seen? And his contact rate right now is the best of his career. Something like pull, that is all the balls in play but it's something that stabilizes quickly. So his pull rate is is pretty good. It's it's up from last year and his fly ball rate is up from last year.

So I see a guy who sees the green monster and is trying to just pepper the crap out of that thing. And I think that's going to be good for his game. This is a guy who has great natural power. He's also chasing less than he ever has. That's the denominator there is pitches. So like I see process underneath there that I'm buying on every level.

My one hesitation is when you talk to guys who have had post concussion symptoms, it can linger for months. And I hope- You saw Anthony Rizzo, right? Like, I hope this is not the case. He's going through the protocol right now. But, you know, we've talked about how hitting is such a... It's an art and a science, right?

It's such a fine thing that I agree. You know, if we had done this podcast yesterday before the collision, I would have also been on board. I am a little hesitant now because as you guys mentioned, he collided with a big boy in Raphael Devers. It wasn't good. He needed eight stitches. I'm really hoping that maybe he just gets some rest and really avoided some lingering symptoms because you know, baseball, it's not like hockey. You you know this isn't nearly as common but if you talk to guys who have experienced some of this stuff

and it could be scary and these are symptoms that like don't really go away and guys very rarely want to not play because they have a headache or they feel a little lightheaded right they're gonna want to be out there especially Tyler like especially guy like this He's in his contract year, he's having this kind of numbers. Exactly, exactly. So that's something to watch. Like I don't hope that there's like a precipitous drop,

but it might be something to monitor over the next couple of weeks. Yeah. Yeah, I'll buy with an asterisk for the reasons that Eno mentioned. The key for Tyler O'Neil for the last couple of years has just been staying on the field. A lot of problems, soft tissue problems with his legs that have cost him time.

So if he's able to keep those away and if this doesn't turn into a major concussion related problem, I think Tyler O'Neill could be prime for another year. I think it's more like 21. I don't know if it's another level above that, but he's a good player when he's healthy. I think that was lost on some folks because of how the last two years went for him in St. Louis. Let's talk about Francisco Lindor. A really quiet start for him.

I think I made this graphic last week and he's up to a 48 WRC plus now. I think this leads us to a bigger question. It's still bad, right? I was like, it was 22 through 10 games and now it's a 16 games at a 48 WRC plus. When do you actually start to worry about a player's slow start? Francis School indoor's track record is really good. His plate skills still look great. He's striking out less than 10% of the time. This to me just looks like an early slump, some bad luck.

And the Mets after that 0 and 5 start, I've actually kind of come back to life. So it's not like they're having one of those miserable starts that takes a bad week and it turns into a bad month for every single player on the roster because they're just trying to swing their way out of it. Right? So what's the actual level of concern with Lindor? But the bigger question, when would you actually be worried about a player with that sort of track record, especially underperforming? I wouldn't be worried until June. I mean, you look at Lindor, and it's not just this year. It's not just last year.

His entire career. Look at his stats the first month of the season. It's the worst month of the season he's had since he answered the big leagues. He's just a slow starter. People have talked to him about it. He's well aware about it, obviously. And I just don't think that a whole lot can be done.

He's a field guy. He's someone that just needs all those reps and as you mentioned, his numbers are going to be there. Now the argument is, and you know I do pay attention to the Mets more than some other teams because they do some SNY stuff. The argument is that last year they got off to a bad start and Lindor having a bad start at the beginning of the year can sink them, right? Because during that early stretch, it wasn't just Lindor.

Nobody was hitting. Well, now you're seeing some of these guys kind of turn the corner a little bit. You're seeing Nimmo have better at bats. You're seeing Pete Alonso, Brett Beatty, and everyone's still waiting for Lindor though, because he seems to be the stirrer that's that, you know, the straw that stirs the drink. He seems to be the guyrer that's that, you know, the straw that stirs the drink. He seems to be the guy who makes that team go. So I think it's, it's worrisome in that the Mets wanted to be a fringy playoff team and

they're going to need Lindor to be at his best and they really can't wait and slog through a slow first Lindor half. But whether his numbers are going to be there at the end of the year, I don't think is any question again, this happens every single season to him, and he does turn it on, and he does post pretty consistent numbers. I think the real question though, if I'm the Mets, is I'm wondering how can we avoid this?

Do we need to play him more? Does he need to start games in January? How can they find a way to channel like June, July, Lindor? Can we make like a little personal heater he can sit in? Right, like how do they find a way for him to be that guy earlier in the season? Because they're right, the season was lost so early last year, and it wasn't just

on Francisco Lindor, obviously. With Irlander and Scherzer, and there were a ton of other problems with that team, but they need him and they need him to hit early. So I'm not worried about him, but I'm wondering how they can figure out, if there's a way to figure out how to solve this problem. It would seem like in 2024, we would have, I don't know,

there'd be some kind of technology or a protocol or something for these guys who always start off slow, not for a week or two. A lot of hitters the first week or two are still feeling around, it's cold, whatever. Lindor, it's like that whole first month for these guys who always start off slow, not for a week or two. A lot of hitters the first week or two are still feeling around, it's cold, whatever. Lindor, it's like that whole first month. And I'm not sure what you can do about that.

Oh, this is interesting. So players across the league don't swing as much in the first couple of weeks of the season. I think that's like what you're saying, sort of feeling out process, and they're a little bit behind maybe the pitchers you know when they come out of spring. Lindor does that like if you look at his graphs for his swing percentage he always starts out low and ends high. I

mean he's done that for three straight seasons even beyond that so I think that's funny because when I look at his stats, I say, Oh, there's some good stuff here. I mean, he's chasing less than usual and he's making more contact than usual. It's just the power's not there. And so I'd put that in a different bucket, you know, because power is just one of those things. He could have a two homer game tomorrow and his stats, like 48 W RC plus, he'd be like an 80 W RC plus if you had two home runs today, you know? So power is one of those things that is really noisy and small samples. And so I would just say, I don't, I don't worry about Lindor, but if I was his hitting coach,

I might say, Hey, let's just try being more aggressive early in the season. You know, like this sort of feeling out process isn't, doesn't really work for you at least power wise. Um, but like, you know, if I was looking at, um, somebody whose stats did bother me, cause there is like this general question, when do you worry about a slow start of the play? It's a, it's like, uh, it is a feeling out process. It's really hard to kind of just give you benchmarks, but I can give you sort of where I look Jose Brey you

You know one thing I'll look at his age 37 okay, you're just less likely to bounce back from a slow start at 37. That's that's something you can just say like, you know Projected bounce backs aren't as effective over 33. So he's 37. The next thing I'll look at is contact rates like I said earlier. Well, his contact rate is the worst of his career. And you'd expect strikeouts to age poorly, so you're bringing that age portion back in. You're also looking at numbers

that have good denominators like pitches. So I'm looking at a swing strike rate, I'm looking at his chase rate, which is over pitches, and I'm seeing a guy who is pressing, chasing, not making contact and is an older player. It's not a profile that I would bet on to bounce back. Lindor on the other hand, 30 best contact rate of his career so far, you know, one of the best chase rate of his career so far. So I would just say this is kind of a blip for him.

Yeah, and I would say just adding on to that a younger player that I'm a little worried about, at least in the short term is Parker Meadows for the Tigers, like you see the K-rate jump up into the 40% range, teams start to back off players for playing time when they do that over a long enough stretch. And you're seeing him not start against lefties already. Yeah, they're starting to do those small adjustments. He might find his way out of it and be fine, but I think he's in the realm of player that, because he only came up for 37 games last year, he's still just 24. If he continues to struggle, he could go see Toledo again. That's entirely possible. So I worry about it for guys that don't have a very long track record in the big

leagues, you start to get to this point, 20, 25, 30 games in. That's when I see something like a K rate that's well above expectations as being more of a problem, because not every team is going to be patient with every player. And I think Parker Meadows is more in that class of prospect or young player where it's not like Gunnar Henderson last year with the Orioles, where you have a little higher degree of confidence that he's ready and that he's completely figured it out. Meadows is more like in that second tier of prospect where you might need to do something a little bit different with the development.

Yeah. Nolan Jones has seen a really big swinging strike rate increase. It's going to end up being more worrisome if the stats aren't there because Michael Harris has seen an even bigger swing strike rate increase than Nolan Jones. But Michael Harris is normal stats as results stats look fine. So nobody's really talking about that. And maybe it won't matter in the end. But, you know, Nolan Gorman is swinging missing more. These are all kind of young prospects that are not elite prospects or at least weren't thought of you know that way and sometimes that can cost them playing time like you said so I think it's already happening that a change in contact rate is creating a situation for Austin Hayes to lose

playing time to Colton Couser that's's part of the story there. So yeah, contact rates are something I look at a little bit early on. And I think they can be a source of you'll see because contact rates poor contact rates leads to strikeouts, where strikeouts lead to poor batting average poor on base percentage, less playing time. We're three for three on holding Lindor right just to clarify like he's going to be fine. I think it is funny to see even the first half versus second half splits for his career Which kind of dovetail with swinging more over the course the season for his career Lindor's batting average 25 points higher in the second half he goes from 264 to 289

OVP goes up 15 points to 350 slugging percentage goes up 462 to 492 He steals more bases well in part because he's on base more like on a per game, per plate appearance basis. He's more aggressive in that facet of the game, too. So just something we've seen over several years now for Francis Golden Door. One more for today. Also, also need to update the graphic. I thought I made a second graphic and I didn't. Joe Musgrove.

He is not looked like himself. He's managed to come away with a couple of wins in his first five starts. So from a fantasy perspective, at least you've banked those, but it's a 629 ERA, a 177 whip and a 17.9% K rate with a 9.8% walk rate. That's the other unusual thing, right? I would have figured even if the strikeouts weren't there walks wouldn't be a problem. Musgrove just doesn't quite look like himself. Fastball Velo down a little over a half tick compared to the overall number from last year. We know early season Velo should be compared to early season Velo in past years. It's still down, so there's just... Is this just a carryover effect of the shoulder stuff he was dealing with last year? I'm starting to wonder if I just underestimated the impact of that injury possibly being a long-term thing for Musgrove. Yeah, maybe, though he also started last year pretty poorly and was able to rebound and bring those numbers down too, if you guys remember. So if he's hurt, okay, then obviously there is some serious concern.

If he's not, I think he could probably rebound because he's done it. Like this guy's whole career is an underdog story, right? He's only gotten this far because of his determination and his grit. He's not this like can't miss out stuff guy. So I think if health is there, I'm, I'm confident he's going to turn it around. I think those numbers are going to start to trickle down similar to last year. The real question mark is like you said DVR, is he dealing with another shoulder thing? Is he dealing with something else? And that's forcing his mechanics to change or, you know, his stuff to go down.

Then you got a real problem. Then the Padres have a problem too, honestly. Um, you know, so I would like a little more information on him. I would like a report where he definitively says, I just haven't been pitching well, but I'm totally healthy. Right? That would make it a little bit easier. Um, I'm not super worried if? That would make it a little bit easier. I'm not super worried if he's healthy about this start because again he's

been through it and we are talking about it is it is April 16th or we are what one tenth through the season? Not even are we? We're about a tenth? Just barely one tenth because I think some teams have played 16. Just barely one tenth. 17 games, yeah. One tenth. To me, no, because all it takes is two or three good starts for these numbers to get halved at this time of year.

But again, the injury history with him is what gives me pause. Yeah, I mean, if you look at his VELO chart, there's a really interesting thing where if you compare April to April he looks worse than if you compare to the regular season last season because in April last season it was pre Mexico. And ever since Mexico he has dropped about a full tick. I feel wise and that's in Mexico was when he had a bursitis I believe we had some swelling in the elbow and then the shoulder problems came late in the season so. I see a below that has not returned to where he was when he was healthier and that does worry me it really does he does have the ability to spin it. Like he is really his stuff plus is still pretty good because his sliders really good. His curve balls really good.

His cutters pretty good. Like he should theoretically be able to survive with this. But we also see is fewer and fewer and fewer fastballs as he's not throwing them as fast. And so I just wonder if everything is based off the cutter instead of the fore seam because he's getting to the point now where he throws as many cutters as he throws fore seams. It's about 20 and 17%. If you base his whole arsenal, if you sit in the box and you are basing everything off the cutter, then everything becomes sort of bendy and you don't ever have to worry about the straight, you know. And so maybe it doesn't it's not as effective

If it's based off the cutter, maybe it's just you know, if it's cutter slider curve It's just just degrees of bend as opposed to when he had the fore seam you had to kind of straighten up You know, can he straighten you up? So I'm a little I'm a little bit worried. Yeah, I might I'm a little bit worried, yeah. I might, I'm definitely not buying. Not buying. I will maybe hold, but I'm inching towards sell. Yeah, I think cautious hold is where I'd be because he said the stuff numbers are still pretty good

overall for Musgrove. I think he's got enough pitches where maybe he can find a new approach that will work. It's just a matter of taking the time to do that. Nine hard hit balls last night. He went six and after wobbling early, managed to grind it out to get the win, but it didn't look great.

It didn't look like a good quality start if you actually watched the outing for Joe Musgrove on Monday night in Milwaukee. So I think there are some legitimate reasons to be cautious here. He's got the Jays coming up at home for his next turn and he's got the Phillies the following week. So a couple of reasonably tough matchups for him as he tries to put the pieces back together here in the next few times out. We are going to go on our way out the door. A

reminder, you can get a subscription at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. That's the best deal we have going right now. So be sure to check that out. You can find Britt on Twitter at Britt underscore. Jeroly find Eno at you know, Sarah's find me at Derek Van Riper, find the pod at rates and barrels. That is going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Thursday. One last nugget for everybody. Listen to the end.

Jack Leiter is coming up. Apparently he's more linear to the plate and he's got the best walk rate of his career. He's also fourth in Stuff Plus in the minor leagues, so consider picking him up. I wouldn't necessarily drop an advanced player, but if you've got a little roster spot that you're playing with, Jack Leiter might be worth it. Thanks for listening. That's baseball, Susan.. you you