Rates & Barrels - Kerry Carpenter Delivers a Game-Winning Homer & Four Division Series Knotted at 1-1

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss all four Division Series being level at one game apiece and preview the Game 3 matchups between the Phillies and Mets, and Padres and Dodgers before looking back at Kerry Carpenter...'s game-winning three-run homer off of Emmanuel Clase, and the four-run fourth inning at the put the Royals on top for good in the Bronx on Monday night. Rundown 2:15 Sean Manaea: A Familiar Foe w/Changing Arm Slot 11:42 Seeing a Pitch Shape More Often Reduces Effectiveness 15:57 Walker Buehler's Game 3 Assignment; Importance of Curveball and Cutter 22:18 Mookie Betts' Postseason Numbers 33:55 Kerry Carpenter Claims a Chapter in Tigers Postseason History 47:17 The Royals Take Game 2 in the Bronx Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:03 shop now at pc-express.ca. College football is back like never before. I'm David Ubbin and I host Until Saturday, the athletics leveled up college football podcast. Three times a week you'll hear me and my co-host, fellow athletics senior writer Chris Finini, and two-time national champion Damien Harris embrace the sport's new madness with you. We're also just going to have a ton of fun enjoying all the things that make college football great. Check out the brand new one until Saturday, every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts. Welcome to Raids and Barrels, it is Tuesday, October 8th. Derek the Ripper, you know, Sarah's here with you on this episode.
Starting point is 00:01:52 We have four Division series all knotted up at one game apiece. If you think, hey, has that ever happened before? The answer is no, it has not. How many years have we had this system? Hey, it's never happened before. Remember when Statcast was new and everyone said, this is the first time this has happened in the Statcast era. It isn't nearly as bad as that was.
Starting point is 00:02:15 Not even close. My 10-year-old turned 10 yesterday, so it's the first time he's doing everything as a 10-year-old. So he has not lived any day of his life without Statcast at his disposal. Because Statcast turned 10 earlier this year, we baked the cake.
Starting point is 00:02:30 Well actually AI baked the cake and we are apologizing and planting trees at some point this off season. But nevertheless, we've got a good show lined up. Lots to cover, couple of game threes today, couple of game threes coming up on Wednesday. So we're gonna start today focusing on the two series that are happening Tuesday before we look back at what happened Monday and then tomorrow we'll preview more preview more of
Starting point is 00:02:54 the AL matchups on the Wednesday morning show full four games finally four games back on the calendar on Wednesday so I'm excited for that But let's start with this Mets-Philly series. The matchup is Sean Manaya versus Aaron Nola as that series moves back to New York. Here's a silly stat for you. Aaron Nola has the same career ERA in the regular season that he does in the playoffs, right? The playoffs are supposed to be harder. 370 in the regular season, 370 in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:03:22 I think the interesting thing here, both sides should be pretty close to full strength in their bullpen. I saw Tim Britton had a piece suggesting that maybe David Peterson and Tyler McGill are held back for the Mets because they might want them available in game four, just to give those guys a little extra rest. But this is going to come down to a couple of things and one in particular is the effectiveness of Sean Manaya. You have talked about how he has changed his arm slot over the course of the season.
Starting point is 00:03:51 It continues to drop but he's become a lot more effective with that lower slot. So it's a familiar face in the sense that the Phillies did see Sean Manaya three times in the regular season but each time they see him he's a little bit different than the last time just because of that arm slot. Yeah, the trick that he pulled that's So interesting is that he dropped his arm slot But he kept the amount of ride that he had which is kind of like adding ride though, right? Can you can you like kind of elaborate on that? Like if you do that, it's like adding, it's the same effect as adding ride, is it not? It really is because if you look at a chart
Starting point is 00:04:32 that compares release point to ride, what ends up happening is if you have a little bit more ride than people expect given your arm slot, as the arm slot goes down, the amount of ride that you need to have to be kind of unexpected and to have good ride goes down, the amount of ride that you need to have to be kind of unexpected and to have good ride goes down, you know, because you just need to have more ride than people expect. So by kind of hopping along, you know, down towards the submariners with his release point,
Starting point is 00:04:57 but keeping his ride where it was before. Yes, exactly. As you said, it's the it's akin to adding more ride and it has made his fastball more effective. And I think it's just that now he's a little bit more like you see Chris Sale coming out of there and it's a little bit on the same level of like a hater or sale where you kind of see that arm slot and you expect it to do different things.
Starting point is 00:05:18 And then, and it's not even that you expect to do different things with that verbal part of your brain where you're gonna be like, I think this ball is going to do this. It's more that the kind of constructs in your brain, the chunking that happens is that you kind of your brain creates these programs and see certain slots and it creates a program for that movement. And Shamanai is offsetting that. What I, what I do wonder is, you know, the Phillies have seen him as recently as September
Starting point is 00:05:44 21st. So this is post slot change. And when they saw him in June, they, you know, hung six runs and three and two thirds on them. When they saw him in September with the new slot, he pitched seven innings, gave up three and struck out six against zero walks. So you know, you'd think, oh, well, the new slot is everything. And so Phillies are going to have a harder time with him. But then now they've gotten used to it. Maybe they've
Starting point is 00:06:10 readjusted that that sort of brain program. And they're like, no, no, no, I know, it used to be like this, but we just saw him and it was like this, you know. And in the meantime, my eyes never really had a great secondary and the slider and the change up do not rate well against, by Stuff Plus or any of those metrics. What he has been doing is making it really hard on hitters by throwing the high foreseam all the time and then throwing a high slider that just dips below where the foreseam would be.
Starting point is 00:06:44 But if you could somehow identify the slider coming out of his hand that's basically a middle middle pitch that he throws at 80 miles an hour so if you can identify the slider hit the slider easier said than done this year since the slot change shamanaya has thrown 148 sliders and no right-hander has hit an extra base hit often off that slider it's just when you look at the heat map you're like dudes he's throwing the slider middle middle and it's 80 miles an hour like can you do something on that so I wonder if the arm slot actually is more deceptive even for the slider if If you think about it, if it has any sort of hump or any sort of weird movement
Starting point is 00:07:29 profile, like if it's down here, then maybe that covers it up more. Maybe it's harder to tell fastball from slider at that release point. Yeah, I mean, it would certainly explain how you could get away throwing it where he's been throwing it if you just can't really pick much up off of a hand. This is interesting from the other side too because the Mets have seen plenty of Aaron Nola. They saw him twice in the regular season. In one of those starts, Nola threw a complete game shutout that was at Citi Field back on
Starting point is 00:07:59 May 14th. More recently, on September 13th, it was a blowout win for the Mets in which Nola gave up six runs on six hits in four and a third innings. So complete, you know, mixed bag in those two performances uncharacteristically. Erin Nolan, Erin Nola had some command issues, I think a little bit in that last outing against the Mets, but familiar faces for sure. What do you think the Mets game plan is against NOLA this time around? Interestingly enough, in the first time through against the Mets, he threw twice as many cutters by rate.
Starting point is 00:08:35 And early in the season, he was a little bit in love with his cutter, and that really sort of fell off in the second half. So I do wonder about the use of the cutter. It does give him three fastball looks to throw at people. And it does keep him from pushing that knuckle curve anywhere closer to 50 percent late in the season. He's been throwing the knuckle curve 40 percent of the time.
Starting point is 00:09:01 And it's a really good pitch. And maybe people couldn't even hit it if they sat on it, but the closer that gets to 50 or whatever you get the Pierce Johnson effect. So I do think that the cutter is somewhat important to him and maybe he just needs to have a touch and feel and that's that was the difference you mentioned the command difference in the two games. So this is an interesting game because you've got two pitchers that are really good pitchers, and yet this could be a large run scoring game.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Definitely could be. It feels like these are two lineups that are ready to erupt again at some point. Curious to see if it actually is tonight. Part of the reason I believe that is that with the Phillies and how they can match up against Benaya, they can nearly run out a full starting nine of hitters who were above average by WRC plus against lefties this season.
Starting point is 00:09:49 I think their strength as a lineup can be stacking a bunch of righties, even having a guy like Kyle Schwab, who's been better lefty on lefty over the course of his career, and still at least hits for power against lefties, that sort of stacks up and makes this, I think, a really tough assignment for Manaya.
Starting point is 00:10:05 So I do think the pitching edge goes still in the favor of the Phillies, even if it's only by a small margin with the adjustments Manaya has been making. An important game for Alec Baum. Yep, it's going to be back in that starting lineup after sitting for Edmundo Sosa in Game 2. And set up now, righty versus lefty, you know, in his wheelhouse, it would be a good time for him to have a good game.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Any changes to your initial prediction for the series with the Mets picking up home field advantage for these final three? I picked the Mets on vibes and the vibes are still pretty strong, although I would say that they took a little bit of a ding with that second game losing in the bullpen too. Vibes can only get you so far. You need to have a closer that's there for you and Edwin Diaz needs to find whatever he's missing. What I think he's missing is fastball command. I don't
Starting point is 00:10:58 know if you can find it quickly but we do know that it is one of those things that's very sticky so maybe that just means he can wake up tomorrow feel better You know feel more confident throw this throw the fastball more towards the middle of zone and and not worry about things Who knows you never know? Yeah location that for for a lot of closers has been Not perfect at times where it has needed to be. Oh, I mean, I mean this this postseason we've seen Diaz hater class a you know, like definitely Williams, I mean, I mean, this this postseason we've seen Diaz, Hader, Classe, you know, like Devin Williams. I mean, we've. I mean, Classe gave up a homer.
Starting point is 00:11:31 He's given up a homer on that cutter three times in his career. Classe, this was a slider. So he's been he's given up two homers on sliders prior to the one Kerry Carpenter hit. That's it. Thirteen hundred and forty sliders regular season, post season combined. Number 1,341 ended up in the bleachers. It is related because we were talking about excellent relievers that maybe someone
Starting point is 00:11:57 is listing and thinks, oh well, the Phillies were supposed to have excellent Penn, what's going on with that? It's like, I don't know dude, Jeff Boffman I still think is a good pitcher. The Phillies were supposed to have excellent Penn. What's going on with that? You know, it's like I don't know dude. It's you know Jeff Hoffman I still think is a good pitcher All the regular season numbers tossed out the window at some point in October It feels like one thing I do weird I do think is somewhat supported by the numbers is this idea that the more often you see a
Starting point is 00:12:23 Shape the better you get at it. So the more often you see a divisional opponent, the better you are theoretically against all the different shapes they can throw at you. I mean, just imagine having not seen Shamanaya at all before or after the arm slot change, versus having seen Shamanaya both before and after the arm slot change in the recent months. You know, I think about this a little bit when it comes to, you know, the different
Starting point is 00:12:50 matchups we have, like, I don't think Angel Zerpa is that great of a reliever, you know, but he's pitching well. And I think that some people aren't just, are just not that accompanied, aren't that used to it. Haven't seen his particular brand of stuff, you know? Would he be throwing up zeros against the Guardians who've seen him a lot more? Think of somebody like Tyler Holton, you know, opening that game against the Guardians and just getting whooped.
Starting point is 00:13:17 It's like, well, they saw a lot of him. And some of the research on the effectiveness of openness strategies and how relievers are used, and how they find success is based on how relievers are used and find success globally. Because you want to use global stats, because that's a better idea. You don't want to be like, BVP, like, oh, Tyler Holtin, you know, these guys are one for six against him. You know, that doesn't make any sense.
Starting point is 00:13:44 So then you break it out and be like, Oh, openers do this. And that's great. Yes. But this is still Tyler Holton, who the, you know, the, the, the guardians have seen a bunch, you know? So I wonder if some of these strategies are smarter and more savvy during the season when the brewers are in town and you're the rays and you're like, Oh, you haven't seen my opener, you know? Whereas the, you know, if you kind of throw the opener against the Brewers are in town and you're the Rays and you're like, oh, you haven't seen my opener, you know?
Starting point is 00:14:06 Whereas if you kind of throw the opener against the Yankees over and over again, like the Rays might, then maybe the strategy wouldn't look as good. Yeah, that gets an interesting point and it could be the thing that causes this game to be higher scoring than expected. Both of these games that we're gonna have today
Starting point is 00:14:21 because you've got division rivals going toe to toe in both of them. I think one of the key differences for me as I look at these two teams though, look at these two series though, is that the Padres made some in season adjustments, right? They added a few fresh faces. The Dodgers did too with Michael Kopek being the big addition. So I wonder if the trade deadline relievers aside from giving you more depth also give you a little extra boost if you run into a team that you've seen a lot of because at least then you have one more high quality reliever that the opposing
Starting point is 00:14:50 hitters have not seen as much, especially if they brought that player over from the other league where they were maybe going to see them once an interleague if that. There's some talk that like, you know, Jeremiah Strada comes out of the out of the season just blowing the doors off of the league. And yeah, for the first 16 innings, he had an ERA under one and it was amazing. June, the ERA is seven, August the ERA is six. Maybe those were times when he starts seeing divisional opponents a second and third time. You know, there's, there's, I think there is more research to be used in the idea of
Starting point is 00:15:23 decay, which is decay is the idea that the more often we see a shape, the better we get at it. And that could be something that could be really important for divisional opponents and for thinking about how many times you wanna use a reliever against a certain opponent and stuff like that. So yeah, Tanner Scott, Brian Hoeing, even a guy like Sean Reynolds,
Starting point is 00:15:43 who is a converted position player, not many people have seen him. It's kind of fun to have that one army be like, well, this guy throws really hard and nobody he has no command, but nobody's seen him. And what if he can just throw down the middle a few times and they can't figure it out? So let's head to San Diego. Talk about Dodgers-Padres game three, where I think Walker Bueller, being the starter for the Dodgers, probably puts them in the underdog, or at least the more difficult spot as far as how are you going to get 27 outs in this matchup. You discussed Bueller and the importance of his curveball a little bit on Monday's show, and I was starting to look at what else he's got in the arsenal right now.
Starting point is 00:16:26 The other thing that stood out to me is that the cutters become really important for him because his four seamer has been getting hammered. It was getting hammered before the second Tommy John surgery in 2022. Opposing hitters are slugging 696 against Bueller's four seamer this season so hiding that pitch as much as possible seems like part of the how do you work through what you've got right now if you're Walker Bueller and he did see the Padres in his final regular season start. He went five, only gave one run
Starting point is 00:16:55 only had three swinging strikes so it wasn't exactly a dominant performance even though by results it was you know good enough. If the Dodgers could sign up for that in game three, they would just take that and be very happy with it. But this is one of those situations where decay and saying like, okay, this game plan worked just a few weeks ago, would this game plan work twice
Starting point is 00:17:17 against a Padres lineup that's so good at tempering whiffs but also is so good at doing damage? You know, I wish upon him you know a slider that worked the slider this year has allowed a 537 slugging and that's why you've seen him kind of go away from that. The cutter has decent numbers it's a pretty good pitch 232 343 slugging for a pitch that you use as a fastball that's good yeah the, the fore seam bad slugging and so that's why he's had to kind of play the cutter off of it. And so that also puts a lot of pressure on the curve because the slider is no good, the change is no good and the cutter needs
Starting point is 00:17:56 to be used as a fastball. So you can't get the same mileage out of the cutter if you're using it as a fastball and a breaking ball. And so the curve has been super important for him in the games where he's going well, he usually has pretty good command of the curve ball, but he's also allowed a 480 slugging on the curve ball this year. So there are times when he commands the curve ball well, there are times when he bounces the curve ball
Starting point is 00:18:19 in front of the plate, and there are times when he hangs the curve ball. And I have no idea which one of those this will be before the game but I think with every curveball that I see him bounce in the game tonight the quicker I am to take him out of the game. Yeah I think that makes a lot of sense and in the Dodgers have enough in that bullpen to be quick with the hook I mean both of these teams have depth we like the Padres depth a little bit more. I think we trust a few more of their guys
Starting point is 00:18:48 if the game is on the line. But there are ways to work around this. I think what happens though, if you go to the bullpen really early in game three, it might be more difficult to navigate everything in game four if you're the Dodgers. That's where it might start to cost you something. Like if you use line of knack in game three, I don't know who you're the Dodgers that's where it might start to cost you something like if you use land and knack in game three I don't know who you're
Starting point is 00:19:08 starting to get for then you're probably doing more of a Johnny Hole staff sort of approach to four which the Dodgers have done in recent post seasons it can is game for tomorrow yes they have back to back and five and but then there's a rest day travel done yes and you go back to Yamamoto for game five, most likely. It could work. We've seen some bullpen games work. We've also seen it not work. And I would assume that the bullpen's gonna be used
Starting point is 00:19:32 to some extent tonight, no matter what. So if you're doing Johnny Holstaff tomorrow, then they've all been used the day before. Right, and that's the less ideal Johnny Holstaff approach. You'd rather do that coming off of the off day if you have to, as opposed to doing it on a back-to-back with a few of the key pieces you would need to get through it. But not impossible, just one of those things. They want to also keep landing an act just to have somebody with some depth,
Starting point is 00:19:56 so they can at least have somebody maybe go two or three tomorrow. I mean, that's why people start saying that the Padres, you know, have turned this and that the Dodgers have to fight for something. But the other flip side of this is Michael King has to get through that lineup, you know, and he has to do it at least twice. And if he can get through it three times, then they're really set up. But if he can, you know, he has to get through that lineup twice. That means Otani twice, you know,
Starting point is 00:20:20 I know Mookie's been struggling, but Mookie's not an easy out. You know, the one thing that he has been struggling on where Michael King really lines up well against him is that Mookie hasn't been hitting sweepers well. And if you can put the sweeper in the zone or out of the zone, he's been trying to work on not chasing and that's the easier part of Mookie because he's got a great eye, but you can still throw the sweeper in the zone. He won't do that much with it. part of Mookie because he's got a great eye, but you can still throw the sweeper in the zone. He won't do that much with it. If you can neutralize Mookie, then you're, then you're really most worried about Otani
Starting point is 00:20:50 and maybe Te Oskar and Te Oskar is a right-hander. So Michael King is, you know, death to right-handers with the sinker and the sweeper. A big part of that is, you know, there's, there's a pitching ninja overlay that really gets us across is that they come out so similar, but the sinker and sweeper is so horizontally different. I mean, we're talking 24 inches of difference, two feet of movement different. So you see these pitches coming in.
Starting point is 00:21:17 That's why you'll see a sword. That's why you'll see somebody swing at some pitch that looks like it was never a strike and was never going to be a strike is because they thought that was a sinker, you know? And so that's why it's going to be death to righties. So it's really you circle Otani's name three or four times and maybe Muncie, you know, we'll give them a good at bat. Lux could could do something, but I kind of I'm more afraid of Lux on the level of like
Starting point is 00:21:40 singles and walks, you know? Sure. Yeah. You know, so you just don't want to, you just don't want to string together a Luxe single or a walk with a Otani Homer or a Max Muncie Homer. That's where you get worried. Freeman, bit of a wild card with that ankle.
Starting point is 00:21:56 We just don't know how healthy he is, how much power he's gonna get off that ankle, but you know you get a really good at bat there too. So those are the names that Michael King is most worried about today. Yeah, the lefties. If Freeman can't go, that is a bigger loss against Michael King than it is against some of the other starters because of the dependence on that sweeper.
Starting point is 00:22:14 One last thought on Mookie Betts, you know, I know sometimes we have narratives that develop around players in the postseason, and they're not entirely true. We've talked about, you know, Josh Hader having a couple of bad blowups, which is true, but his overall results in the postseason and they're not entirely true. We've talked about Josh Hader having a couple of bad blowups, which is true, but his overall results in the postseason, when you look at the full scope, are actually very good. Mookie Betts actually has struggled in the playoffs. He's been in the playoffs eight times now, going back to his days in Boston. So it's a 245-333-367 line, and it's up to two hundred and seventy three plate appearances now.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Mookie Betts is like two great series away from fixing that and any day could be the day where it all starts to click for him. And it's one of the more surprising developments for me because the type of hitter that Mookie Betts is being a low strikeout guy, being a really tough at bat all the time would seemingly lend itself to avoiding a prolonged stretch of struggles even in the playoffs because he's just that good of a player so it's it's one of the weirder position player lines i think i've seen for someone who by any other measure looks like an easy eventual hall of fame bat. I wonder if there's a comfort thing that,
Starting point is 00:23:26 when you look at his postseason lines, the weird thing is when you say like, oh, he has 273 played positions in the postseason, it seems like a lot, but it's a collection of little bits, you know? And if you look at the one where he had the most sample in the postseason was that 2020 championship run where he got 82 played appearances, hit 296, 378, 493 and looked just fine.
Starting point is 00:23:49 Thank you very much. You know, and the time that he, you know, the look, the worst was, you know, the 2023 postseason when he had 12 played appearances and didn't get a hit and had like a walk, you know, so it's kind of hard to to say that it's oh, it's 273 player appearances and therefore tells us a lot. It's really 273 player appearances divided by eight different nine different appearances in the mind in the in the postseason. In 2020 was strange because there were you know few fans in the stands and I think it was less travel than a typical postseason too because games were only played in a handful of locations. Like I think one thing we underestimate about the playoffs, even with the tighter schedule, is like the off days are not really like traditional off days.
Starting point is 00:24:36 They're travel days and you travel more often within the series in the playoffs than you do in the regular season. That might have a negative impact on certain players or most players because it's not it's not easy to be resting less with higher adrenaline, higher stakes during the games and it did not be in that routine quite the same way. So I'm not saying that's necessarily the case with that specifically, but I think it's something that happens in playoff baseball that might help to explain why players who are phenomenal for 162
Starting point is 00:25:12 Just have completely different outcomes in these tiny samples Yeah, I also positive that there might be an interesting home away split trend in that if there's better technology available to the hitters and and and in that if there's better technology available to the hitters and different kind of training methods that they can do at home that might not be available on the road, then you might find some inherent hitter splits home and array that have nothing to do with necessarily cheating or sign stealing or anything and more to do with, oh, well at home I have a trajectory. You know, I have this, I have that, you know, my guys throw me short box and you know,
Starting point is 00:25:48 like they were talking about the Arizona Arizona has a traject, but they have to set it up closer to the plate than other trajects because they don't have space in the Arizona stadium to like, they don't actually have a place where they can put it at 57 feet or whatever. So it has to be at 54 feet for them. So whenever an Arizonian use the trajectory at home, it's even closer than usual. So it's like, you know, there's these weird quirks that, you know, I think data and tech
Starting point is 00:26:17 could actually sort of push into hyperspace a little bit and create some, some real differences between home and away for training for hitters. But this is all conjecture, but I would assume that he's fine. The biggest difference that you find with Mookie Betts is not in the strikeout rate or the walk rate between the postseason and the regular season. It's power. And power is just one of those things that's noisiest in small samples. And even a 273 plate appearance sample that, you know, might give you some idea
Starting point is 00:26:48 of how much power you had. Like if he played half a season, had a 122 ISO, you'd be like, whoa, what's going on with Mookie Betts? Right. Except it's not a half season again. It's just these little drips and drops. Yeah. Couple of weeks here, couple of weeks there. I mean, it and it's not easy It's postseason baseball right opposing teams are good. They get the matchups They want as often as they want them that adds to it as well. Oh Yeah, I think of how many relievers so many relievers booking that sees it's strange though Like the whatever the explanation is it's just one of those strange things about postseason baseball
Starting point is 00:27:22 Do we have to talk about all the other stuff? I mean, it's, I don't want to like be like, oh, both sides. I mean, if you are jerks and profile and you are going to do a little dance and, and Hector, the fans, like it can't be like, oh my God, I can't believe they, they threw something at me. And like afterwards too, which I too, I don't necessarily think that profile has been like,
Starting point is 00:27:43 oh my God, like I'm fainting. I'm give me my fainting couch They're throwing stuff at me, but you know there is some some push and pull there But it's never appropriate for a fan to throw anything at a player Particularly because there's no expectation now you flip that and you say okay Well could Fernando Tati's have expected it was there a reason for Fernando Tati's to expect Jack Flair to throw at him? Yes, because Jack Flair is throwing the pitch in his general direction generally, because he's expecting the pitcher to throw a pitch to him. At least he's looking at him and knows the ball's coming.
Starting point is 00:28:18 Right. Oh, so when Manny Machado throws the ball at the Dodgers dugout, they're not expecting a ball to be thrown at them. So is that more like the fans throwing the ball? Except that Manny Machado threw the ball on the ground and it bounced three times before it got to the dugout. So it's not really like he was trying to hit somebody.
Starting point is 00:28:39 Like did he throw it a little bit harder than usual when Manny Machado threw the ball to the dugout, to the Dodgers dugout, maybe. But did he hit anybody? You know, like, I don't know. That's why I said I don't want to be like, Oh, both sides are to blame. But like, I don't, I don't really want to take the side that like, here are the bad guys and here are the good guys. Sure. You know what I mean? There's just kind of like, you know, they're human beings and I think Manny was frustrated. You know, frustrated that he struck out to Flaherty and got yelled at by Flaherty and then Flaherty throws a tatisse, you know?
Starting point is 00:29:14 Like that might be a little frustrated. And so, normally you throw the ball of the dugout, I think he was just like, you know, yeah, I think he threw a little bit harder than usual. Maybe his way of saying it. That's what I think he did. That was BS. I didn't like that. Right.
Starting point is 00:29:28 But he didn't hit anybody. And if he really wanted to hit somebody, he could have. And like, imagine how different it would be if Manny Machado reared up and threw a ball and hit Dave Roberts. Manny Machado sees him over with some kind of lengthy suspension. Right. Like, I don't think he would do that. That seems pretty stupid. I don't think he would do that. That seems pretty stupid. I don't think that's what his intent was.
Starting point is 00:29:47 Tattis is dancing in the outfield, Profar is dancing in the outfield, and they're engaging the fans that way. Do they deserve to have stuff thrown at them? No, there's two pretty simple lines that continue to get crossed in this postseason, right? I mean, the throwing stuff on the field, I think, has only been isolated
Starting point is 00:30:03 to that Dodgers-Padres game a couple nights ago But players who are involved in bad moments getting harassed on Twitter continues to be a problem, right? Like it's just off the charts bad There's never an excuse never explanation never a justification to do that and yet it continues to happen threats being made To players themselves or their families. It's just out of control Venmo requests have you heard this no regular thing? happen, threats being made to players themselves or their families, it's just out of control. Venmo requests, have you heard of this? This is like a new thing. People are sending Venmo requests to players because they've lost their bets and being like, you know, give me the $5,000 I lost because you didn't hit that one. Yeah, figure that one out for yourselves. Grow up. There is a clear line,
Starting point is 00:30:39 not, you know, it's not like as much as Tatis is, when he's doing his, like I don't know if you've seen the video, but he's doing his kind of like, swinging his thing around kind of dance at the outfield. And obviously Profar is engaged in verbal and sort of physical kind of gestures at each other in the outfield. And then you have, sort of physical kind of gestures at each other with the, in the outfield.
Starting point is 00:31:05 And then you have, you know, Michael Garcia, you know, retweeting. Oh, yeah, celebrating K's in the game. Sure. Which again, is part of the game. That's part of the game. I don't have a problem with that. Like if you celebrate those K's early and you give up some runs and you end up taking the L,
Starting point is 00:31:21 then that's on you later. Like that's just the way it is. I wonder if the real problem is alcohol. Like honestly, like you know, the players aren't drunk and they're doing their thing. They're having fun. And then some drunk guys like screw you and like the worst thing that somebody in the bleachers said to jerks and profile was screw you. I think the vibe would be pretty different. Like that'd be that'd be a little better. Like that would be that'd be a little better. I did definitely.
Starting point is 00:31:49 I know. But like that's that's part of it, too. Right. I think part of what turns you into an on field, let's call it a villain, someone who's going to kind of interact back with the fans and taunt the fans back is because people say horrific things to you. So if you were going to try and brush that off in some way, like taunting back, gesturing back is probably relatively mild in most instances, right? I mean it's just some of this is part of the game. And it is victim blaming to get too, you know, like to talk too much about what profile is doing when somebody's throwing stuff at them. Because profile didn't throw anything at anybody, you know, right?
Starting point is 00:32:26 So anyway, it just like gravities are great. The intensity is great. But let's find like the healthier line and not have people throwing stuff on the field. That would be great. Let's not harass players and their families. I think on the other side, like let's not make, you know, Manny and profile into into more villainy villains than they are or whatever, you know what I mean? Yeah, it doesn't have to be this next level sort of thing. There's been plenty of great stuff happening on the field. I mean, there's a couple things that kind of overlap what I saw on Monday and something the Padres actually might do in their series in game four, right? So the Padres have talked about maybe using Dylan Cease on short rest in game four and then bringing Darvish back for game five So I thought to myself, okay, how's Dylan Cease done in his career on short rest?
Starting point is 00:33:16 He's never pitched on short rest before and I realized the playoffs are different and you do different things in the playoffs But I thought of this because of Emmanuel Classe Emmanuel Classe gives up an extremely rare homer right we mentioned it earlier. 1,340 sliders thrown in the regular season in the playoffs in his career. Two homers allowed until number 1341 was a homer to Kerry Carpenter that decided that game and gave the Tigers the game to win. I thought it was odd looking at the game logs and going back through class a season that he had one Appearance that was more than a full inning just one all year
Starting point is 00:33:50 And I think this is something we know teams are going to do in the postseason We've seen enough of it in recent years to understand you want your best reliever out there Maybe finish the eighth and then go through the ninth so you're asking for four or five or six outs It seems like it would be very logical We talked about this with the Tigers and how they mix and match pitchers and the benefits of it. If you are in a few different situations over the course of 1.62,
Starting point is 00:34:12 I think that could make you more comfortable being in that situation in October. So I don't know how to quantify it, but I think if you're asking me today, would I wanna start Dylan Cease on short rest? Maybe if it's an elimination game. If the Dodgers win and they're up to one, maybe you do want to go to Cease in game four because that's your season on the line. But the class, a thing is like, hmm, you throw this guy out there 65,
Starting point is 00:34:37 70 times in the regular season and you only use them one time for more than three outs. That seems like an odd choice. And I'm not saying that's the reason why it didn't work out for him on Monday, but it's a usage thing that a lot of these elite relievers are. The toggles are completely different. Even Hader, I think his usage for a long time in recent years has been straight up ninth inning. So you bring him in early and you ask for more and it breaks down.
Starting point is 00:35:03 Maybe that's part of the reason why. I don't know. It's just just a theory. Yeah. There are some things that about this Kerry Carpenter in particular is like, do you know he was the sixth best hitter this year against right handers? Yeah. Among all players like that's among all players. Extreme and extreme in the sense they platoon him. All the names ahead of him are like Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr.
Starting point is 00:35:28 Yeah, phenomenal in that split. You'd be like, so, so they're, you're gonna lead off Justin Henry Malloy, you know, instead of just having Kerry Carpenter in your lineup, maybe just put Kerry Carpenter like sixth in your lineup or something, you know, against the lefty. Well, like this is ridiculous. And there is a mathematical reason to suggest that Kerry Carpenter should not be
Starting point is 00:35:50 as bad against lefties. He's been so far is that the observed platoon split, you know, for left-handers against left-handers is about 10%. In other words, if you think that Kerry Carpenter is this good against righties, no matter what he's done against lefties in the past, he should be about as good as Anthony Santander against lefties in the future. He should be like six best against righties and then 25th best against lefties. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:36:22 Like it should be, he should be able to handle it. So far it hasn't been it's been a huge split he has he's been rolling over everything and I I know that's why they do it and so you're talking about comfort and roles actually makes me feel a little better about platooning Kerry Carpenter at this point because that's what they've done all year you know it would be a little bit weird, maybe in the playoffs to be like, okay, Kerry, you're gonna get your third start against the lefty all year.
Starting point is 00:36:49 You know, like have at him. And then I guess the proof is in the results. Justin Henry Malloy, two for three from the leadoff spot, you know, then gets taken out for Kerry Carpenter, who hits the game running home run, like A.J. Hinch pushing all the right buttons again, I guess. Well, and with Justin Henry Malloy it's like you got this really good small
Starting point is 00:37:09 sample result against lefties in the regular season a 250-393-500 line right that's exactly how many plate appearances how many do you think that was he wasn't even up on the roster all 38 it actually a hundred and sixty nine against righties all right so a decent 169 against righties All right, so a decent sample but against righties against lefties. Yes, and my bad 61 against lefties. Okay 61. Yeah, and the thing is like these are both small samples the chances they gave him against righties He was brutal 188 254 325. I don't think you can definitively say he'll never hit righties. It's just early career seeing top level pitching for the first time, trying to make some adjustments. I think the
Starting point is 00:37:51 challenging part with Malloy in particular is they have not found a great defensive spot for him. So that's going to make him a tricky player to roster. Where as Kerry Carpenter I think at least has passable defensive ability in the outfield where you can one day look at him and say, let's just see what happens in 2025 if we give him some more time against lefties. Maybe he can solve lefties and be an everyday guy instead of just someone who's phenomenal against righties and has to share a spot.
Starting point is 00:38:16 I mean, we're picking the knits and it's kind of weird to pick these knits after Kerry Carpenter hit the homer, but I guess you could do something like Malloy starts the game at DH and Kerry Carpenter hit the homer, but I guess you could do something like Malloy starts the game at DH, and Kerry Carpenter starts in the outfield, and Wenzil Perez comes in. But you can't switch someone to DH.
Starting point is 00:38:33 No, you'd lose the DH if you did that. So Wenzil Perez would have to come in as DH. Yeah, it's just not, it's hard to manage the roster this way, but this was a great pitching matchup overall. Scoobal did Scoobal things. The Guardians threatened a couple of times. And I think there was even a spot where John Kenzie Noelle
Starting point is 00:38:53 came up with Josh Naylor on second base, one out in the fifth. It was the spot we were hoping for and Noelle got hit by a pitch. So we didn't get to see if it would play out. It was inside. I mean, that was the zone we were looking for to just stuff, just a little bit too far inside.
Starting point is 00:39:11 I think that rally that that possible opportunity ended with a Andres Jimenez double play. Scoobel had a couple of big double plays that got him out of some jams in the fifth and the sixth. There was a great catch. Steven Klon made in the eighth that may have been remembered a little more fondly if the Guardians had come had gone on to win this game was not overturned on review I was watching that one a lot again this morning kind of like did that was there a bounce in
Starting point is 00:39:34 there doesn't really matter turned out you know I swear there's a there's leather thumb underneath it it looks like it bounces because it does bounce on the ground but I think there's leather underneath it is the thing that's what it looks like on a few of the angles, but then when you watch the video, you see what looks like a tiny little hop from the ball as it's going into the glove. I don't know, it doesn't matter in the end
Starting point is 00:39:52 because of the way this all played out. But man, like if you're looking at how this went wrong against Klasay, it's like Jake Rogers, 01 single, Trey Sweeney, 1-0 single, and then the carpenter dinger off the slider like they had basically the best possible person up at the plate in that moment. I think even as much as we like Riley Green, we'd say Riley Green is our best all around position player right now.
Starting point is 00:40:17 Best all around hitter anyway for the power and for the splits and what carpenter had done. You couldn't have drawn that up any better if you're A.J. Hinch and the Tigers and even the splits and what Carpenter had done, you couldn't have drawn that up any better if you're AJ Hinch and the Tigers. And even the Tigers radio crews, listen to this game, I was kind of toggling between home radio announcers for sound. They had that sort of vibe. Like, well, it's never easy against Klaasay, but Kerry Carpenter is the perfect person for the situation.
Starting point is 00:40:40 You know, going forward, I do wonder, you know, with all this, the games are really, really exciting. But you could also just sum it up and been like, well, you know, the Guardians won the Bybee start and the Tigers won the Scoobel start. Not exactly, exactly how we
Starting point is 00:40:59 thought they would happen. But, you know, that's what happened. And I think this still favors the Guardians going forward because, you know, Alex's what happened and I think this still favors the Guardians going forward because You know Alex Cobb is going out there for them And I don't know that the Tigers can do Johnny Chaos whole staff for two games in a row You know, and so someone has to step forward and like when's the last time Reese Olsen pitched?
Starting point is 00:41:23 Results in pitched in game one. He's not gonna pitch until, I wouldn't think he'd pitch until at least game five. So it's Cater Montero? I think you'd see Cater Montero. And then Bunch of Relievers. More likely in game four than in game three, but game three's probably not impossible.
Starting point is 00:41:39 Well, you're gonna get some Houlton out there again, probably Herder. So it's gonna be Herder. So maybe you wouldn't start with Holton because Herder's lefty. So maybe you open with Bo Brischke the day after he. You're gonna open with Bo Brischke? The day after he closed.
Starting point is 00:41:54 Can I have the Bo Brischke playoff saves on my draft and holds? Or maybe you open with Foley. Right, because Foley didn't pitch in two. Holton didn't pitch in two. You don't wanna use Bo Bobriski in two straight games unless you're winning. So you could use Foley at the beginning,
Starting point is 00:42:10 and if you lose, you hold Bobriski for the next game. And if you win, if you're winning, Bobriski's in the next save. Okay, I'm on board with that. I mean, Alex Cobb, what is the realistic expectation for Alex Cobb in game three? The Guardians had been very quick to go to the pen each of the first two games, even with Bybee starting in game one.
Starting point is 00:42:29 It was actually the same script, right? I think it was John Kenzie Noelle throughout Malloy at second, but Malloy would have been on with the top of the order coming around again, exactly as Parker Meadows got on to knock out Bybee the third time through the order and that's when they went to The pen they followed the exact same script So I can't imagine we'd see Alex Cobb any longer than we saw Matthew Boyd Barring the they have a massive lead and they want to just keep everybody a little more fresh for game four at the first sign Of trouble you're gonna turn it over to what's been the league's best bullpen this year
Starting point is 00:43:03 and that's what Stephen Voet continues to do. I really like Alex Cobb and there is a version of him that is actually pretty effective and efficient in terms of the sinker can get some ground ball outs and he can kind of, he can move through teams pretty quickly if he wants to. So, I mean, if, if everything's feeling good and I think there's a blister and, you know, different injuries he's dealt with. So I don't, I'm not assuming that he's going to feel great. We did hear that, you know, I've heard from multiple sources that it's pretty commonplace to, to get a shot of toroidal, which is like a very powerful nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory,
Starting point is 00:43:44 right before the playoffs. And it lasts about four weeks. So that might have something to do with the playoff Velo bump, and maybe Khabar's feeling good right now. So. Oh, but adrenaline is just such a better way to describe it. It's just adrenaline. I mean, it could be the combo of adrenaline
Starting point is 00:44:02 and getting an anti-inflammatory injection. Either way, if Khabar's feeling good, like he can kind of, I think he can go four, I think you go four or five. And I think they, they'd want him to go four because, you know, as good as this bullpen is, I do think there are some stars in it where it's Kate Smith and class a, and then there's a little bit of of a kind of a step down to like the hunter goddess, you know, kind of crew below that. So if you could draw it up, you might want to just pitch Cobb Smith and class a tonight. And that way, if you did that, you'd feel like that's 100% of guardians when that's huge. If you can cut it down to that much but I think the Smith Heron Gattas
Starting point is 00:44:45 Class-a quartet is the way they've mapped it out in these first couple of games So that's sort of I expect any time a starter go short they go a little short of the mat They go one reliever deeper if they have to just that's gonna make good at some point open up something for the Tigers You know if Cobb goes three There's got to be something something there for the Tigers, you know, if Cobb goes three, there's gotta be something, something there for the Tigers. Let's take a look at the other series going down right now. The Royals took game two in the Bronx from the Yankees. My concerns about the matchup were possibly the long ball,
Starting point is 00:45:18 especially with the start being in Yankee Stadium where Carlos Rubens had some struggles with homers. It was just a Sal Perez solo shot as far as homers that were allowed, but that sort of started the big inning that pushed Carlos Rodin out of this game. I forget. He looked really good the first time through the order. Something about this one is a head scratcher to me, right? It's it's you, Lee, Gary L and Tommy fam scratching out the second run. Garrett Hampson coming in to drive in.
Starting point is 00:45:45 Like Garrett Hampson that I wouldn't have on my playoff roster. Maybe as a speed, maybe as that like Darian Blanco, like, you know, pinch runner type. That would be about it. I mean, what is Garrett Hampson's career WRC plus? 73. You're very close, it's 69.
Starting point is 00:46:01 Wow, that is not nice. That is not nice at all. It's not a playoff roster player. And yet there he is driving in a run and playing a role because that's how playoff baseball goes. I have this thing for Carlos Sardone, which is this is what Carlos Sardone's pitches look like from behind home plate, you know,
Starting point is 00:46:18 thanks to a baseball savant tool. And I think, first of all, you know, I see a lot of those red four seamers that are in the chase and that are not even in the chase zone. They're in the waste zone above the strike zone. And then generally you see a really clear pattern of the foreseen being high and slider being low. And if there is anything that's middle of the zone, it's slider.
Starting point is 00:46:41 And so if you are a hitter that wants to, you know, sit on something, you know, in the middle of the zone, you can sit on something that's, you know, high eighties in the middle of zone, you sit on the slider and we saw plenty of hits off the slider, especially in that second or third time through their order, where at the second time through the order where Carlos Rodone was throwing like five sliders out of six pitches to some hitters so if you start to see oh the guy before me just got five sliders and six pitchers I'm gonna sit slider and some of those biggest hits the Hampson hit I think one of the fam hits like I think three out of those hits in that inning were off the slider. Definitely Sal Perez hit a middle middle slider a long way.
Starting point is 00:47:30 And that might be what I see when I see this kind of a spray chart as a hitter. I see, well, it's really easy kind of to identify the four seam is going to be up, the slider is going to be down. And if there's anything that's going to be middle middle, it's probably going to be the slider. So maybe that's what I'll sit. And as for, you know, some of the emotional back and forth, it's pretty clear that colors of dawn is a better picture when he's emotional and when he's
Starting point is 00:47:51 who and, and hot and getting all sweaty and yelling. So I don't begrudge them that at all. And, uh, it is kind of funny for Michael Garcia to come back and be like, well, you know, you celebrate a little bit too early guy. You do open yourself up for that if you're, if you're going to be, you know, like that on the mound, but kudos to the Royals for having a good attack game plan against Rodin. And I think this might be a little bit of why Rodin has sometimes some trouble as the game goes deeper is that I think he does become a little bit predictable in terms of where he puts his pitches.
Starting point is 00:48:24 So if I were him, I would throw some low fastball sometimes. Put some doubt in their mind. Especially the second time through the order where they think, oh my God, he's going really heavy slider right now. What if you throw a low fastball? If he'd throw a low fastball, the time that Garrett Hamson got the hit on the low slider, I think he would have blown it past him. Yeah, it does look a little predictable seeing it mapped out the way that you had it. And you wonder if that's part of how the Royals were able to scratch out those runs. And it would turn out to be the huge inning that they needed,
Starting point is 00:48:54 getting all four of their runs in that one frame. Col Reagan's only went four in this one. If you told me going in Reagan was only going four, I would have said, oh, OK, then the Royals probably didn't find a way to win this game took him 87 pitches to get that far I think even in that fourth inning Sal Perez during one of the sequences ran out towards the mound for a mound visit and was trying to signal the dugout to get somebody up because nobody was up throwing at that time the bold decision was going back to Angel Zerpa in the fifth and it worked out fine this time be that
Starting point is 00:49:24 for the reason you mentioned earlier maybe the lack of familiarity with him but Zerpa in the fifth and it worked out fine this time. Be that for the reason you mentioned earlier, maybe the lack of familiarity with him, but Zerpa and John Schreiber continue to be the two guys that when you see them in the middle innings, those have to be the two relievers that Royals fans are the most nervous about out there. I mean, I think Chris Bubich to some extent because, you know, I know he's had some good numbers and that there have been plenty of, you know, I know he's had some good numbers and that there have been plenty of You know mediocre starters that have made great relievers But boobage did has not gotten the V lo bump that you'd expect, you know going to the pen and He allowed for hard-hit balls in two innings and I you know
Starting point is 00:49:59 I just think that whole Zerpa Shrider Shriver boobage connection is a little suspect for me I can't help but circle that as like, Hey, that's when the Yankees lost the game really, because, you know, a four to one deficit should not be, you know, unassailable for an offense like this. And you let Zerba Shriver and Bubic throw four zeros on you. I think that's, that's where they, they, they really lost out because they, they made some noise against Ursaig and Ursaig himself is a good closer,
Starting point is 00:50:32 but I don't know that I put him, you know, in the level of class A and Williams and all of them. So if you would put one or two runs against Zerba Shriver and Bubic and then got to Ursaig, then you could have tied the game. I mean, that's to me where I circle. And then I, on the other hand, I also circle the, the Yankees pen for two things. One, they pitched really well, you know, they pitched really well and they, a lot of them got out there and Ian Hamilton,
Starting point is 00:51:00 three strikeouts and four outs, you know, clay homes, another clean inning. Tommy Conley was good. Luke Weaver was, you know, had to come in and clean some stuff up. But the other thing that I circle about this is they all pitched. So, you know, to some extent, if you're going to ride them this hard, you know, maybe they're going to open themselves up for a possible situation in the bullpen too. So series tied. I still think the Yankees are going to win this one. But a big part of this is them finally breaking in against that bullpen. Well, it's going to be Seth Lugo against Clark Schmidt as the pitching matchup for Game 3 on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:51:43 I'm curious who you like better in that particular spot with this game being played in Kansas City. Yeah, I mean, I like Seth Lugo better. Just a nice wide arsenal. He can keep everybody off kilter. You never know though that like this sort of playoff analytics born trend of taking guys out early. If Lugo's dealing through four, but they feel like, oh, it's third time through the order, we need to get into bullpen. We've already seen the Royals make a decision like this with other pitches in the past that might go against them where they go back to the well with Zerbis Ryder and Brubich.
Starting point is 00:52:20 And this time the Yankees hitters have just recently seen them and blow the game open against those guys. Yeah, I'm just thinking about you know part of the the pattern that they used even in the Lugo game last week against the Orioles It was pretty similar to what they've been doing where it was Zerpa coming in once again in the fifth Shriver behind Zerpa They squeezed Sam Long in there for a couple of outs boobage for one instead of two and then ursig to finish it off and I think that's the That's their a bullpen the depth version of their a bullpen right now I think that's still something they would really prefer to get away from but I guess the choice comes down to this
Starting point is 00:53:02 Would you rather let Lugo go through a third time or use some combination of Zerpa, Shriver and Long against the Yankees order. Maybe it depends on where you're at in the order at the time like in what situation is and how you get there like if you have a clean inning for Lugo to come in the third time through maybe you let him go one batter at a time and just make that decision if someone reaches pull it then but that's the tough choice that I think you're making on a night to night basis and it seems like they favor their relievers right now over their starters the third time.
Starting point is 00:53:35 Yeah, and I guess the analytics are gonna say yes, you should do that. The analytics aren't like what has Seth Lugo done? It's what have all pitchers done third time through the order. Is that right? Is that the way you should do it though? I mean, cause you think about the differences
Starting point is 00:53:52 between Lugo and someone maybe that's like a fastball slider, 90% two pitch guy. There's a huge difference in what you're expecting as a hitter from those kinds of pitchers where Lugo's got more wrinkles he can throw at you. Darvish has more wrinkles he can throw at you. So I don't think that the perfectly straightforward, rigid decision makes sense to me.
Starting point is 00:54:13 I think what the pitcher has in terms of depth and quality of arsenal is an important variable to consider. Yeah, and we do know that there is research that suggests that every additional pitch you have softens your third time through the order penalty. I don't know if that goes all the way to nine though. Yeah, maybe, maybe at four or five, then you've already sort of like plateaued in terms of that.
Starting point is 00:54:36 If you have nine pitches, that means you have to reverse third time through the order split. What you have seen from Lugo is 696 OPS first time through, 689 second time through, 741 third time through, 741 OPS allowed. And what you've seen from somebody like Angel Zerpa is that before the season he was projected to have a 4-3 to 4-6 ERA and I would venture that'd be very close to a 741 OPS now of course he's had a little bit better season than he was projected to but in terms of strikeouts minus walks in fact his season was just about dead on I mean everyone's projecting him for sort of 19 to twenty percent strikeout rate he had a twenty point five everyone's protecting him for a seven to eight walk rate he had a seven point nine.
Starting point is 00:55:32 So in terms of came i was bb he kind of was who's projected to be so i think that line is probably closer than it is in a lot of other places i mean you're not bringing in ian ham You're bringing in Angel Zerpa, you know, like I, I think Ian Hamilton is a better pitcher. I think, you know, I think it may actually make sense if you drilled all the way down, you did all the projections that you might actually find you want Seth Lugo third time through over angels or. Oh, I didn't want to Kurt Cole Reagan's in that spot. I know the pitch count was up over 80 at the time, but Reagan's has five different pitches.
Starting point is 00:56:05 So it's not like he's a two pitch guy and they went to Zerpa instead. It feels risky. I don't know how many times the Royals can get away with that. I also don't expect Bobby Witt Jr. to remain hitless through the entire series. So to just come out of the Bronx with a split
Starting point is 00:56:21 and not have anything from Witt yet, that'll probably change at some point in the remaining game. George is hitting 143 in the postseason, so they both have guys on each side that are looking to break out. Stanton is hitting 125, and of course, he had three Rockets last night, but the legs, they do not look like Rockets.
Starting point is 00:56:42 They look like whatever the opposite of Rockets are. Anchors, I guess. I said the opposite. Jazz had a nice big homer and there's a chance that he becomes, I could see him, if they win the series or they win a series going down further, I could see him winning a series MVP because there's going to be traffic on know, traffic on the bases for him, no matter what happens ahead of him. He's an exciting player who's changed a little bit this year with the Yankees than what he was before. He's pulling the ball more.
Starting point is 00:57:16 And I asked him, is that because, uh, you know, that porch out there? And he said, a no B I'm with James Rosen, my hitting coordinator, my hitting coach when I used to pull the ball more in 2022 and I had my best season. And the third thing is when you come to a place like this, he said, when you come to New York, you
Starting point is 00:57:36 don't want to be on the bottom of that list. Like when you come in here and you see judge and you see soda, you don't want to be on the bottom of that list. So I think it does speak to him playing up to the limelight and playing up to the, to the moment, uh, that seems to be the kind of personality is.
Starting point is 00:57:52 So even if a judge doesn't break out, you know, you could have a Soto jazz pairing, Soto gets on base, jazz hits him in with a Homer and, uh, that's how they win, but Clark Schmidt is a, is a, is a, a little bit of a Michael Kingian pitcher. When he's right, he does a lot of the Michael King things where he dominates righties with Swink or sweeper and he just gets by lefties. His changeup is not as good as Michael King's. And so I would circle some lefties in this lineup, but who am I circling? MJ Melendez.
Starting point is 00:58:23 Who's the best lefty in this lineup? Massey probably. Oh, Vinny Vasco Tino is the best lefty when he's completely healthy. It's only even a question because of his thumb. Yeah so Pascantino, Massey and Melendez like they need something out of those guys against Clark Schmidt. Otherwise they're gonna go up against the same bullpen that hung a bunch of zeros on them and is actually what I think one of the most underrated bullpens in the postseason. I think this is going to be a spot where Bobby Witt Jr. is going to homer off of a Clark Schmidt sweeper that misses.
Starting point is 00:58:53 I think that's what's going to happen. I think he's going to try and get down and away, chase us, he's going to miss one and Witt's going to hit it a long way. He's going to get that home crowd. I mean, he it a long way. It's gonna get that home crowd. I mean, the young guy, the home crowd might be a nice solve for the postseason woes so far. It's coming. I'm excited for it though.
Starting point is 00:59:12 I mean, all these series, 9-1, so plenty of drama to follow here in the next few days. We are gonna go around- Audrey's daughter is gonna be a zoo tonight, I think. It's gonna be crazy. It's gonna be stupid. It's gonna be so dumb. Get a subscription to The Athletic at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. Two dollars a month gets you in the door. Find Eno on
Starting point is 00:59:26 Twitter at EnoSarris. Find me at Derrick Ryper. Find the pod at rates and barrels. We are back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. Bueller. Bueller. Bueller.

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