Rates & Barrels - Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, Devin Williams to the Yankees & Moves Aplenty

Episode Date: December 16, 2024

Eno and DVR are back from the Winter Meetings and the big moves around baseball just keep flowing. They discuss Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in a huge trade with the Astros, Devin Williams' move to the Yankees, a swap between the A's and Rays that sent Jeffrey Springs to Sacramento, and a few other odds and ends from around the league. Rundown 2:53 Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in a Massive Deal with the Astros 9:56 A Closer Look at FA Needs For Contenders (fWAR by Position) 21:28 A Critically Important Trade for Houston GM Dana Brown? 24:24 Devin Williams Traded to the Yankees 32:54 The Brewers' Shortstop Plan in 2025 39:38 Jeffrey Springs Traded to the A's 49:22 Other News & Notes: McClanahan's Workload, Thairo Estrada to Colorado Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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including yourself. Join for free at rakuten.ca or download the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N, rakuten.ca. Welcome to Rates and Barrels to Monday, December 16th. Derek and Ripper Inosaris here with you back from the winter meetings, back in the comforts of our home recording studios, which frankly are nice, but at the same time it is great to be out and do live shows amidst chaos. That's what it was in Dallas. We had a nice spot set up just inside the atrium. You can see it if you watched on YouTube there are people just flowing behind us all day long. A really good trip, a lot of great episodes.

Hopefully you've had a chance to listen to those over the last few days and it seems like you know things are really busy this December. One of the busier Decembers I can remember because we're getting massive free agent deals and we're getting a lot of trades. So we got a ton of ground to cover today since a lot has happened just in the time since we left Dallas last week.

Yeah, I think, you know, to some extent there has to be some calming down in the halls of the front offices where, you know, maybe around the CBA, there's always nervousness, what's going to happen, you know, how are we going to treat this? What are the loopholes? What are we going to, you know, how can we exploit these loopholes? What are we, what are we looking at? You know, is there going to be a lockout, that sort of stuff and right in the middle of a CBA. So I think there's calmness of that on the TV front.

You know, we've talked about this a little bit. Maybe there's some, you know, some feeling that this will all get figured out and that everything will be fine. I think having one Soto just decide early, just made everything easier. You know, anybody that holds on long and holds up a bunch of budget ends up, I think, slowing everything down. And, you know, I, I wonder if there's been some change with Scott Boris. I mean, you're thinking about it.

Jordan, Montgomery, and Blake Snell can't be too happy about how their last free agencies went, you know? And so maybe to some extent, Boris is deciding, Hey, this is a pretty good deal. Let's just take it. You know, let's not wait until the last second to draw out the last million. If that means that you're not ready for the season and that hurts you that way. Yeah. I think it all worked out fine for Blake Snell. I don't know if we're going to get quite the long-term joy from a Jordan

Montgomery contract next year, since he opted in for another year with the Diamondbacks. But the point remains, with Boris having control of so many of the top free agents this year, the approach has been different. I think maybe he knows, in order to open things up for his other clients,

you gotta move some of the biggest players first, right? He's got a pretty big client roster, so that's probably part of it too. But Kyle Tucker, to the Cubs, in a massive deal, among the things we're going to talk about today and I think everybody who listens to this show has a pretty good grasp of how good Kyle Tucker is. If you are not familiar with the work of Kyle Tucker, Levi Weaver did a great job in the

windup today, summing it up this way. Tucker's 19.1 F-war over the past four seasons is better than all but 12 position players in the sport. In that span. I mean, that's great. So, I know you love trivia, and I know you thrive at trivia. Would you like to attempt to name the 12 players who have generated more F-War than Kyle Tucker over the last four seasons? Uh, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Corey Seeger.

Seeger's tied with him, so we won't count that against you. Alright. I got two out of the twelve. You got two so far. Shohei? Yup. Shohei is- Of course. The DH thing is a little bit hard, but yeah, Shohei, uh, he's been hurt.

You got the top three, I already brought up the list already. Okunya? Nope. No, dang it. He's been hurt. You get the top three. I read the list already. Acuna. Nope. No, dang it. I mean, I should just be naming the stars of the sport. Like, why? Just rattle them off. I'll pick it up.

Julio Rodriguez? No, no, no, no. Last four seasons. Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Fred Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trey Turner, Marcus Simeonon Jose El Tuve Jordán Alvarez despite missed time and so I was thinking about Alvarez. I just thought with the deep with the defense

I wasn't sure and Dan's be Swanson. What? Yeah, Dan's be Swanson. That's the big surprise. That's the big surprise I think most of those people could have listed off of 10 on average Yeah, but the kids be Swanson is the one you let me have a little bit before some bad radio I wasn't gonna let that happen so the trade Tucker here's the return he socked parade ace probably our most discussed player on the pod over the past year or so cam Smith first rounder from the Cubs that has a very bright future and may not be far from the big leagues and Hayden was Neske three players going back to Houston in the deal.

Let's talk about the Houston side of this first before we talk about the implications of Tucker. I think we've realized there's a massive difference between the trop and Wrigley Field in terms of pull power for a right handed hitter and that was on full display once Paredes got to Chicago at a trade deadline deal. How much do you think we can go back to expectations of Paredes doing something similar to or maybe even a little better than what he was doing when he was playing half his games in the trop now that he's with the Astros?

Well yeah, he's got the Crawford boxes so he's got a park that's going to support him. Well, I think I read somewhere that 26, he would have had 26 homers last year if he'd played all of his games in Houston. Of course, he'd only play half his games in Houston. So I'm comfortable with the projections as they are from Steamer at about 244 average and 25 homers. It's not quite all the way back to the Tampa Bay 31 homer season he had 2023, but it seems to be the most reasonable approach to take, you know, given that he's had this demonstrated track record and he's headed into this new park. I think one of

the difficulties with this trade overall and analyzing it, there was this whole movement for, you know, dollars per war as a way to kind of gauge a player's value to his team by combining his production and the cost of that production in the free agent market to get a sense of like, you know, okay, according to how much we pay him, this is how much he's, you know, really, he's really worth. I think that works in the content. There's been a lot of blowback where people are saying, oh, that's terrible. They don't use that construct, you know, really, he's really worth. I think that works in the content. There's been a lot of blowback where people are saying, oh, that's terrible. They don't use that construct, you know.

And I think it's actually works in free agency because the rules are set. Is this guy available? Who is available? Here's the money we can spend. This is what we need. It's a very sort of straightforward cash, you know, roster spot player. Boom.

Okay. I think it falls apart in trades because first of all, you don't know who's available. You can't just treat all the players in baseball as available. There are players that are superstars on minimum deals that are not available. There are players that are superstars that are being paid very highly that are not available. You can't go get Aaron Judge, you know, who's a like, you can't go get Gunnar Henderson. Like, you know, like those are two examples of players that like would have different dollar signs per war or attach their name. But that doesn't mean that doesn't actually mean that they're available. Like, to have a player be available, like for example,

you either have to have a non-contender who's selling, or in the Houston's case, a contender who doesn't really want to give out these big contracts and wants to get something out of their player before they leave, right? But in any case, you can't, first of all, you don't know what's available. And that's just so terrible because

Once somebody becomes available He becomes more valuable just because he's available, you know That's like there was a big trade at one point where Aaron Nola was you know, there was money attached I don't know if there no somebody who's they had money attached to him. It was Cole Hamels I think Cole Hamels had money attached to him, he was still a good pitcher, but he got traded, and somebody gave them prospects, and I was like, well, why are you giving him prospects? His dollars per war, like he's,

but because he's available, because I could get an ace right now, and I can't get an ace unless I pay the price, you know? And the other thing that we don't know is, we don't know what the price is. Like, we don't know what the market is saying, right? We don't know what the other offers were. So we can't say at first glance, I'm like, this feels a little light. You know, they're getting basically an average player and a guy that I kind of think

might be a reliever, but maybe they can make some tweaks and make him like a fifth starter. And then a prospect who's kind of a pop-up prospect. He might be really good. But if you throw this through the dollars per war calculator, and there are some, I'm not gonna name them, I'm not trying to make anyone look bad. I'm just saying, you throw it through dollars per war, they say terrible overpay by the Astros. Sure, terrible overpay. You're getting one year of Kyle Tucker,

yes, he's a six-four player, but you're also paying him, You're getting one year of Kyle Tucker, you know, yes he's a six four player, but like, you know, you're also paying him, so the surplus is not worth all the surplus you get out of all the years of the average player. But here's the other thing, the team that we're talking about, the Cubs, are okay everywhere. Like we might have a segment later where we're talking

about the biggest holes on the teams, you know. And if you look at the Cubs, their biggest hole is like relief pitching, you know? Like one of the easiest things they can go do. You can go look at this right now. Okay, so we'll throw this up now. You know, it's color coded. These are only the top 20 teams.

So these are contenders and white means bad, bold and white means bottom three. So the Cubs are green everywhere, dark green. Now they got Kyle Tucker. They're a good team, but how do you make a good team better in free agency? There's no, you know, four war third baseman that they could just go and buy with money.

Maybe Bregman. Maybe Bregman, right. Yeah, that's a tough need to fill. Right, and so, and that's like a lot of money. So they have to be like, well, do we want to put a lot of money in a lot of years to get the short term upgrade and then fall back to where we were anyway in a couple years? Or do we get a short term boost at corner outfield?

Now you see they're dark green. So by corner outfield among contenders, they're the third best team. Up against the Yankees and the Mets. Hey, that's a pretty good place to be. You jump so much and you have limited roster spaces and you have limited availability. So how many six win outfielders were available this off season? My guess is two Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker.

And one took hundreds of millions of dollars and the other took maybe a slight overpay by a value calculator. So I think that the dollars per war construct is fine in free agency. It's fine for judging sort of the relative strength of your roster in terms of efficiency because as much as we wanna say

your team could spend more money on their team, the front offices have a budget. That's what they have to deal with. So they have to be efficient in some manner. So they have to judge their players on some level in terms of dollars per war. So it's still a construct that's useful in baseball. I just think it falls apart when it comes to trades

because you just don't know the supply, you don't even know the demand. You don't even know how many teams were in on Kyle Tucker. You'd assume anybody with a pulse, but like. After Soto signed last Sunday, and the rumors that the Astros would be willing to trade Kyle Tucker, those reports started to surface,

the obvious connection was, hey, if you missed on Soto, Tucker's about the best thing you're gonna get in free agency in the outfield. It's the closest possible thing, even though terms are different, it's one year, and you gotta go try and re-sign him and work from there. At least it's one year plus compensation you get after you give him the qualifying offer and he leaves.

That's the minimum. And I think people go too far right away thinking about the long term value and completely fly by the how much better did the Cubs just get for 2025. Like, forget it. Even if Cam Smith is a superstar, who cares? Like in the sense of you are at least making your team probably the favorites to win the division, at least on paper now. This move single-handedly, I think moves them ahead of the Brewers by projection. There's still lots of offseason to go. But you would imagine is also a big move that will be

followed by a couple of other additions to the roster. I don't think they're necessarily going to be the team that goes out and splashes $250 million at Corbin Burns, but they finally have that direction, that they finally have that push to say, we wanna be more than an expensive, pretty good team. We wanna be a legitimate, dangerous playoff team. Usually one player doesn't swing things that much, but I think it speaks to that kind of good everywhere philosophy and build that the Cubs had.

I was talking to Sahad of Sharma when we were at the winter meetings just on Sunday night and I could just tell he was surprised that a lot of the things that the Cubs had ruled out at various points. But this at least is a pivot away from the middle where they sort of lived the trade line last year and they approached the roster throughout last offseason

Because this is shopping at the top and it's not paying us certainly in dollars But it is paying in terms of long-term talent and I think if if you're a fan you have to be okay with that You have to be excited about this It is a testament to the improving farm system that they can give up a player like Cam Smith who, you know, was a first round draft picked. So he's not necessarily a win for player development in any specific way, but last year just really played really well at three different levels, went all the way to AA, you know, out of college and was just an exciting young player that, you know, the Astros are happy to acquire and probably is close to the big leagues, you know,

at 21 with three levels under. I mean, he's going to play double A to begin this year and he could be pushing Esau Parades to first base, you know, next year. So that makes a lot of sense for them to get that. On the other side, you're right. The Cubs You know have an improving farm system

They have a team that has been that's gotten to a place where it's okay everywhere and they needed to kind of be a start will Kamsom with be a star is another question and That's I don't think we have enough data in the minor leagues to tell you if you will or if you won't you know So that's a sort of an internal scouting question data in the minor leagues to tell you if he will or if he won't, you know. So that's a sort of an internal scouting question, but in terms of, you know, what's left for the brewers, you know, I think the easiest thing is for them. If you scroll down, we're looking right now at their depth chart on YouTube, scroll down to their relief pitching squad. I think if you take this relief pitching squad where Porter Hodge is an exciting young player,

but you can see that walk rate is a little bit high. Nate Pearson is an exciting young player, but he doesn't always stay healthy. It's the same for Julian Merriwether. He's not young anymore, but he's pretty good when he's in. I think this whole thing looks a lot better if you put Tanner Scott at the top. Then if Ben Brown ends up in the bullpen, I know that probably projections that would still be kind of a middle of the pack relief squad, but you could actually tell a story where you're like, oh my gosh, Nate Pearson breaks out, Porter Hodges, everything we

thought he was, Julian Merriwether throws, you know, 55, 60 innings and Ben Brown is like a mini closer in the eighth inning. And we have Tanner Scott like lights out lefty at the top. Like you could actually tell a story where this is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Right now it projects to be one of the worst among contenders, one of the bottom three. And so I think that's the easiest place to say, okay, you know, now we only need to do like a two or three year outlay and it has to be kind of big money to make a dent because there's not that many good relievers left. But that's a lot easier than say, you know getting one soda, of course I mean, it's they may have never ownership may have never said anything to them

That was gonna say to the front office and said you're not gonna get them like they never made a no indication That was impossible, right? So you're already on to plan B if you're Jed Hoyer, you're that group in the front office Ownership says absolutely not. We're not going above 500 million for any player ever. It doesn't matter who it is. Okay, well as soon as you know on the inside that the number's gonna start with a seven,

you're moving on to the next thing. A lot of questions here about the depth chart would kind of point to both Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki and Bellinger opting in to stay. Not a surprise thinking about the season he just had missing some time with injuries. Seiya Suzuki being available is a little more of a surprise. He's not an easy player to trade because he does have the ability to block trades to certain clubs. I would be surprised if he's still available.

I think that was a little bit like if we get Kyle Tucker, we'll give up Sazouki, you know? Right. Well, does Cody Bellinger still fit on this roster? Pete Crowe Armstrong played well in the second half. He's a phenomenal defender. It looks like the offensive side is starting to come together for him. Do you play Cody Bellinger at first and move Michael Bush back to third? I mean, do you depend? Do you let that ride on Matt Shaw? Because of all of the secondary winners of this trade, Matt Shaw looks like that guy right now, but not knowing how Bellinger fits or if Bellinger fits and then what the return is if they flip Bellinger

leaves that a little bit open-ended. Yeah, I'm trying to think now of what Nico Horner's arm is like. Healed from surgery or healing from surgery. Flexor tendon surgery. That's right, is hurt and he was ninth percentile in arm strength. So Nico Horner's not your option at third.

Michael Bush, first percentile in arm strength. So there is a little bit of an opening there. I'm a little surprised to note that the Cubs supposedly have still about 30 million between where they were last year where they ended last year and where they are right now So maybe Bregman still makes sense for this team. He's a little bit like Bellinger where the batted ball stats are not super exciting, but they picked up Isoc Paredes where the batted ball stats weren't very exciting. And you know, if Bellinger and Bregman are guys that put the ball in play and sometimes

hit homers, Kyle Tucker is the guy that always hits homers, Nico Horner is the guy who always puts balls in play. This is a team and Michael Bush is your kind of prototypical, you know, closer to three true outcome homers, walks, strikeouts. Like this is a team that then has like kind of diversity of approach at the plate and could be a team that scores no matter who's on the mound, you know, scores in different ways. So Bregman could make sense. And then we just go at it with the bullpen we have or we, you know, we, we shop in a slightly different bin instead of getting Tanner Scott. You know, maybe we add Kenley Jansen on a short small deal.

I don't think he'll be as expensive as Tanner Scott, really. Or maybe we take somebody like a Joe Ross and turn and say, we want you in the bullpen. You know, there's some options where you could try to make it cheap. Dylan Floro should be super cheap and you know, could get you some ground balls in the bullpen and help you. David Robertson is out there still. So, you know, you could you could you could add you could add Bregman to this mix, I think. Or maybe you could still trade Seiya Suzuki for a third baseman. I don't know that it makes sense to like trade Seiya Suzuki

for like Nolan Arnado or something. Like I don't know if that makes sense. If it was me, I'd be okay with a little bit of surplus in certain places and I would just go get Tanner Scott. I think that if I was running this, I would do that because maybe we could fake it with Michael Bush at third or, you know, we could figure something out. Yeah, still a lot of moving parts here.

And then the other angle for this trade that I think is kind of interesting, I guess it's twofold. One is an unknown. We'll just see over time if Dana Brown is right. I think it's Dana Brown's scouting acumen that led him to the GM spot for the Astros. And I think the goal here is to probably remain competitive. The vision I think is weak enough where you can move away from a player like Tucker, get a guy that might be everyday player

for the next six years in Cam Smith, also have Paredes as a short-term guy at an area of need both corners. And maybe you can turn Hayden Wazneski into something. But this is a big one. These are the kinds of trades you have to get right in order to keep the GM seat. So I'm just really curious to see what kind of player Kamp Smith turns out to be given Brown's track record and some of the things I've seen written about Kamp Smith.

It sounds like most people like this trade, maybe for both sides, but at least from a did they get enough back for Kyle Tucker perspective, it seems like the box is checked. Yeah, if Wesnesenske works out, it's because he's got the baby Michael King Clark Schmidt package. He is a sinker sweeper guy that just needs to figure out the cutter or the force seam or the change. I would just say his change is worse than Michael King,

so I don't think he's got the Michael King possibility. One reason I also mention all these three guys is they came from the same system. They were kind of developed in the same starter kit. He could be a Clark Schmidt, you know, and maybe you kind of focus on cutter curve like Clark Schmidt did and just throws the other pitches enough to keep everybody off balance.

He's cutter curve against lefties and sinker sweeper against varieties that could work. Those pitches work against those types of handedness. I just, you know, it's been a while and people have been trying it. And I, and I just, I don't see the change. So I don't think he's Michael King. Um, and I'm not sure he's even Clark Schmidt. So I think he, he might be a reliever, but again, you said he's a scouting guy.

Maybe in cancer, if he sees something special. And probably a guy that keep her in dynasty leagues just got a little bit more interesting because it won't be as crowded of a situation once he breaks through, at least based on how it looks. The Cubs with so much talent coming through. There may have been more questions. We saw that this year with Matt Shaw. I think some of us thought there was a chance Matt Shaw would

break through in the second half. Now it looks like Shaw's the guy here early on in 2025. One last note about that depth chart situation, the Astros are one of the teams that have a bolded number on their roster and it is at first base. And now corner outfield, but maybe some of the calculation is it's easier to figure out first base and corner outfield than it is to figure out third base. And then Cubs kind of made the opposite decision.

We're like, we'll figure out third base. Yeah, well, let's see where these remaining chips fall in the weeks ahead. Hi, this is Eric Kim with New York Times Cooking. As a recipe developer, I spend a lot of my time trying to come up with dishes that are quick, easy, but also very special. For me, that means dishes like gochugaru salmon. It's a crispy salmon filet with a salty, sweet glaze that bubbles up in candies. I love cooking this because it only takes 20 minutes. I developed this recipe when I was down in Georgia with my family.

It stars a Korean red pepper powder called gochugaru. I love the way it blooms in the maple syrup and the rice vinegar. If you don't have gochugaru, you should totally get some. It's super versatile. It's not just that it brings heat, but fruity sweetness as well. You can get this recipe and so many more ideas on New York Times cooking. Visit NYTCooking.com to get inspired. Big trade that happened between the Brewers and the Yankees since we last

spoke. This is not a surprise at all. Devin Williams has been traded. It's to the Yankees. I guessed Phillies. I was close, sort of. Right part of the country. Wrong club. Right type of team. Right guessed Phillies. I was close sort of right part of the country wrong club Right type of team right type of team one that wanted to improve at the top of its bullpen And and absolutely did that interesting thing that came up in discord was My thoughts on this trade so it's devin williams for nester cortez jr. And caleb durbin, right? I said I didn't believe caleb durbin was going to start at second base for the yankees Yeah, we definitely said that but now we get to rehashash the Oliver Dunn sort of conversations about third base in Milwaukee

And now we get to add Caleb Durbin to the third base gumbo in Milwaukee. No, it's not gumbo. That's a southern dish Whatever whatever casserole. Yeah, I throw everything together. You hope it's good. Yeah, it's the hot dish I'm looking at this and I'm saying okay okay, like Nester Cortez to the Brewers makes sense. They need innings. He's a wide arsenal guy, not big Velo. Getting out of Yankee Stadium kind of seems like a good thing for any pitcher. Home road splits for Cortez tell you a different story, but I still would err on the side of over time you'd be more comfortable making half your starts at American Family Field than trying to navigate Yankee Stadium.

So both teams feel a need. I think we both knew the odds of the Brewers paying eight figures for a ninth inning guys is so low because they don't have to. They find guys like this. They develop guys like this. So they get innings, they get a flyer on Durban, and the Yankees top of their bullpen gets a lot better. So, Luke Weaver goes back to his setup role.

Kind of a bummer if you had him in keeper and dynasty leagues and were hoping he'd close, but definitely something you knew was possible going into the off season. And you start to think about what works in the playoffs, what typically works in the playoffs, what wins in the playoffs. Nester Cort in the playoffs, what wins in the playoffs. Nestor Cortez for the Yankees would be unlikely to start maybe even in a seven game series.

And if he did, he would start one time. That's the kind of picture he is for. He might even need a rotation after getting Max Fried, you know? Right. So he was a bit of a surplus guy there. In Milwaukee, he's at least one seat closer. In a long series, he would start. In a short series, maybe he wouldn't and then you

Okay, what was wrong with the Yankees this postseason? One of the critiques we had was that they didn't have enough a relievers to rely on you lose clay Holmes in free agency You're placing for Devin Williams. I realized Devin Williams just gave up a brutal home run to Pete Alonso that ended the Brewers season and had a playoff that he missed from punching a wall a couple of years ago and gave up runs I think in the first wild card game against the D backs in twenty twenty three. So he's made three playoff appearances and missed the playoffs because of just a unfortunate decision.

Let's call it. So there's not a track record of playoff success. However that stuff should work in October. So when you think about what puts you over the top, that fourth or fifth starter versus one of the best relievers in the game, it seems like the Yankees did address a need and use surplus to do it,

even though this trade could work well, once again, for both clubs. I like seeing trades that work for both teams. I think that's why they happen in the first place. Yeah, so many different angles on this that are interesting. Devin Williams the second best reliever in baseball over the last four years if you use Winsor-Burr replacement, which basically sums up your entire contribution on the field. But in this case for pitchers is mostly focused on walks, strikeouts, and homers. And he is one of the best best home run suppressors which again in New York is probably a big deal.

Interesting that Devin Williams and Luke Weaver both their best secondary pitches of change-up. You don't normally have that out of a closer you kind of want a big breaking ball. You know normally they get righties out but Devin Williams and Luke Weaver have both used their breaking balls with great success against same-handed guys. So that's not really a concern, but in Yankee Stadium where homers can go out, their two back end guys don't give up homers. So that's really fun in terms, again, of just going back to that value

calculator idea, I think Nestor Cortez for Devin Williams straight up might have made sense by the value calculator because the idea is we both have one year of this player, you know, who is slightly underpaid and one is a starter and one's a reliever and, you know, wins our place and is never going to love relievers because they only pitch, you know, 60 innings. So here's the idea is our reliever is more dominant and your starter will give us more innings and they're both injury risks and they both are, you know, uncertain in the postseason. Boom, done. The reason why the Yankees have to give up Caleb Durbin is because there is no Devin Williams available. Nope. who's a fun, you know, left-handed reliever, you know, who throws really hard is not quite there.

Yeah. And he has, you know, control problems of his own. You know, so, you know, I think that Caleb Durbin was the price of business. Now, Caleb Durbin also fits on the Brewers really, really well because he is not a guy who hits the ball super hard. People aren't sure what position he plays, but he's a little surprising in terms of what he does

on the field, given his tools per se. And so he's not exactly Bryce Turing or Joey Ortiz or Oliver Dunne, but he has something in common, even with Tyler Black. Like they're all kind of guys that other teams might say, ah, is he a starting shortstop? I don't know. You know, does he have the bat to play every day?

I don't know. Those players all are not exactly the same in terms of exactly what skills they bring to the table, but they are the same in that they're kind of tweeners. And some people would say they're not starters, but you know, Bryce Turing just went out there and was one of the best second baseman in baseball last year. And I could see this infield working out actually where Joy Ortiz stays at third. Bryce Turang moves to short and Durbin is the starter at second. But you also have Monasterio who's, you know, should belongs in this conversation.

And you also have prospect Brock Wilkin who's on his way up. So you know, there's a lot of moving parts in that infield. And I think what the Brewers kind of do is they say this could fit together a lot of different ways. We're not exactly sure yet how it's gonna fit together. But each of these players, if this guy takes a step forward in this way,

or this guy takes a step forward in this way, they're gonna be underpaid, underappreciated players that can work in our system. I think that's exactly how I would have described Bryce Turing last year, who was I think the best defensive second baseman in baseball, him or Andres Jimenez, and was a surprisingly decent bat that made him a regular on any team. Most teams would have been happy to have Bryce Turing at second. So they're going to play that same playbook back with Chad Durbin, who, you know, he doesn't hit the ball super hard. He may not have the arm for third, but maybe he does.

He's not really a center fielder. Yeah. This is the sort of the Bryce Turing conversation. And I have a hard time when it comes to fantasy. I have a hard time kind of betting on these players because I want our stakes are higher. The Brewers can be like, oh, that guy's fine. You know, he's a major league regular. But, you know, usually when you play in fantasy leagues, it's 10 teams or 12 teams, not 30 teams.

Yeah. There's well, there's that factor. And then, you know, defense is important in fantasy and then it drives your playing time but it actually makes a bigger impact in real baseball. So you can, the ability to play two or three positions at least at an average level carries a lot of weight. Weren't the Brewers the best defensive team in baseball last year? I think by some metrics yeah.

I think, I forget if it was DRS or very good at all the spots you want to be good. Always hard to say something definitively. Right. It fluctuates. The number of times I look at those boards over the course of the year, I'll get it and we'll confirm it. But the interesting thing I stumbled into was a clip Pat Murphy we had on the show last week. He was on foul territory and they were willing to bug him about the roster. You and I didn't want to bug him about the roster if only because you know it's a bunch of moving parts. When they asked him about their preferences internally or Murphy's preferences of who

they would move to shortstop to replace Willi Adames, he said his tendency is probably to leave Terang at second and play Joey Ortiz at tease it short terrain was phenomenal at second base defensively But to have two or three guys that could be above average short stops and to have the choice It speaks to what you're saying before You're not boxed in if something comes available that fits that makes your team better You can go get that player if you have two or three different ways to build a starting lineup I think that's what a lot of the Raze, Guardians type teams try to do. Give yourself outs so when you do have a chance to get a bargain in a free agency or fill a need in free agency,

you are not stuck with one build that works. Right, you're not stuck looking like staring a hole into third base like you might be in Chicago. Like you're just sort of like, ah, we need an infielder, you're not stuck looking like staring a hole into third base like you might be in Chicago. You're just sort of like, ah, we need an infielder. Another thing that Pat Murphy said to us though was that he tries to foster a sense of like, we're all in this together and like whatever the team needs, you know, kind of deal. So, you know, if the team needs Chad Durbin at second base, I think to some extent, a lot of these guys, it works a little better with young guys, right?

Because if you're asking like, you know, older guys be like, Oh, well, I've been playing this position forever. What do you want me to do? But if you're asking young guys, be like, they're like, yeah, I'm happy. I get a major league job. Like if you asked Roy Ortiz, what do you play, third or short? He'd be like, wherever I play. But both. I'm just in the wherever I play but both In the lineup

I'll play it, you know, because I need to I need to make it, you know It's different than people who have made it So if you go to Bryce Turing and say can you play short and you say George he's third they price say yeah Sure boss. I've made the comparison for Caleb Durbin before to like a younger John birdie because of the hard hit rates It is a really low strikeout rate. We're talking 9.9% at AAA last year, with a 12.5% walk rate. We know, thinking about players like Stephen Kwan,

if you get the K rate low enough, you can live with a lower hard hit rate, because you're putting so many balls in play. But when you look at the tools and how they've been graded over the years for Caleb Durbin, you see Fangrafts puts a 30 game power on him him and that's reflected in the upper level minor results. Given his age, he's already 24 years old, 10 homers in 375 plate appearances at AAA, that's about as much power as you could expect, right?

15, 18 over a full season at that level and probably more like 10 to 12 in the big leagues is the max. But you're going to get a lot of speed, maybe some pretty good on base skills and that defensive versatility. So it's not nothing as far as a second player, even if we don't project more than 350 or 400 plate appearances for Durbin out of the box in Milwaukee. With Williams gone and thinking about the way that bullpen, they call him Chad Durbin.

That's that's several times. Yeah, you got you got you, Chad'spen. I call him Chad Durbin. That's that's several times. Yeah, you got you got your chads in there. It's Caleb Durbin. It's like Durbin was a pitcher as I was growing up. Not a good one even but just he owns that name in my head. I guess he locked in all the C Durbin real estate that you have available in your brain. The only other question that we have here is, you know, when

we've seen the Brewers navigate some life without Devin Williams last season, who closes? Is it Trevor McGill? Is he the frontrunner? Is he the guy you're drafting and you're drafting holds right now? It doesn't seem like a place where they would bring in someone on the outside. You know, Admiral Eribe will be healthy eventually, so maybe there's still some long-term interest in him for keeping her dynasty perspectives. But having watched this team throughout the year, I think for me, McGillill is the at least the early incumbent that I would be most interested in knowing that someone else could pop up and look really good and and put pressure on him if it doesn't go well to start the season. Yeah, I mean, that's I think that's the obvious one.

Despite his poor ERA last year, I would also put Nick Mears in a possible list. That's a good deep cut. I understand where it's coming from for you, but it's one of those moves that if you're a Brewers fan and you watch Nick Mears, you're like, come on, man, what are you doing? How is that possible? I get it, it's a stuff play.

You did have a seven ERA with the Brewers. It was brutal. I expected a lot of that ERA to have gone with Colorado. I was opening up the partial seasons tab, just as I said. You're not wrong for mentioning his name, but I feel like the Brewers fans listening are going to be like, ooh, I don't think that's happening. It's crazy because he's a 97 mile an hour fastball guy. Sierra is this skill interactive ERA.

It's one of the best ERA estimators. He had a 2.38 with the Brewers. So like in terms of striking guys out, 34% strike rate, 5% walk rate. Like this is, everything was good. He just gave up homers, like nobody's business. And homers are a big source of noise, but maybe he's had homoritis.

I mean, it's really hard. Been in Pittsburgh, been in Colorado. It's kind of hard to say like if he deserves all those homers Especially for a reliever who all their work comes in small samples So I just I put mirrors behind ash B is you know, I'm not ash be a Abner your eBay as somebody that might surprise us in the future pie amps I think is not he just doesn't really have the stuff to be a closer. So I think he's a guy that may close sometimes if Miguel is hurt again.

But I think it's actually pretty safely Miguel. Yeah, I think at least at this point, that's where I'm at. Curious to see a longer term, what happens with Davey Garcia? What kind of tweaks can they make with him? Can they turn him into a useful six or seven inning guy? And what role are they expecting for him, yeah. Yeah, a lot of moving can they make with him? Can they turn him into a useful six or seven inning guy?

And what role are they expecting for him, yeah. Yeah, a lot of moving parts. With the addition of Cortez, it's Freddie Peralta, Nester Cortez, Aaron Savalli, Tobias Myers, Brandon Woodruff, who I think Matt Arnold recently said, it's a little bit questionable as to whether he's ready for opening day, coming off shoulder surgery. He could be back this year, and then you got guys

like DL Hall and Aaron Ashby who've been kinda bouncing between the two roles in the last couple of seasons all candidates and then eventually top prospect Jacob Mizorowski He just needs to find his own a little better Eventually Robert Gasser comes back from Tommy John surgery as well He's more of a second half sort of addition so you can kind of see their rotation Coming together a little bit and and having guys like Cortez and Savali helps them maybe not have to go fishing in a free agent pond that has 15 million dollar Alex Cobbs swimming around in it. Speaking of pitching on the move though more of it how about Jeffrey Springs to the A's for what I can only describe as

a smorgasbord. This is like a peak raise sort of return for this trade. So Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez go to Sacramento as a part of the trade. Frequently discussed pitcher Joe Boyle and stuff plus machine Joe Boyle, along with Jacob Waters, Will Simpson and a compensatory draft pick go back to the raise. This is such a Tampa Bay sort of move,

knowing that they've got a lot of depth in that rotation. Springs was expendable, got back from surgery and even like without him like you look at the Rays depth chart. McClanahan, Pepeo, Baas, Bradley, Littell, Rasmussen, there's six right there plus a few others that could enter the mix. Not surprising whatsoever. Let's start on the Jeffrey Springs side We learned in the time since that Luis Severino deal was announced that the A's are Working to raise their payroll to avoid a grievance with the MLB players association So Jeffrey Springs acquiring him via trade is one more nudge toward that threshold I don't know exactly what the rays are doingse are doing because they already had one of the lowest

payrolls. So do they really need to lower payroll? One thing that they do always do is think about what's going to happen on the roster before they get hedged in. So some level as ridiculous as it sounds like maybe trading him before they can't trade him Jeffrey Springs, you know and I know that they are always a team That's basically number one or number two and stuff plus which kind of looks at the physical characteristics of pitches And I know that you know Springs of stuff was not back after he came back From Tommy John and I know that there is research out that says that you know, Springs' stuff was not back after he came back from Tommy John. And I know that there is research out there

that says that, you know, you know pretty quickly after Tommy John whether or not the stuff is back. So you've got a guy that in the past had, you know, despite the lower VELO had above average stuff on the fastballs that came back and had a really, really low number on the fastball. And also, even by Velo, pretty obvious. He sat 90 last year where his best year in Tampa, he was 92, and one year he was 94 when

he was kind of in between the pen and the rotation. So I think they were happy to turn him into some guys that they felt really had large stuff. And that's Joe Boyle is the stuffed monster in this trade that they're getting back. I mean, this guy sits 99 with a hammer slider. He just has no idea where it's going. And you know, there's even a little asterisk to this Cameron Levy, that's C-A-M-E-R-O-N-L-E-V-Y on Blue Sky on Twitter, pointed out that no pitcher in baseball added as much

ride, added as much sort of hop to his fastball in the second half as Joe Boyle did. And, you know, I talked to him a bunch and he felt really good about the mechanical adjustments he made when he went down. And when he came back, he was a better pitcher, but he's still not a guy that has a great sense of his own. But you know, Tampa's had really good outcomes with pitchers like this before. This is a little bit like the Tyler Glass now situation where you're like, hey, you got a guy with big stuff. I mean, it's really pushing it. You're like, I mean, you're leaning hard into the best case scenario right now, but continue.

It's fun. Well, I mean, otherwise, what is this? Is this a salary dump from a team in Tampa that has currently, if they'd had him on, it would have been, you know, 85 million or so, exactly the same payrolls they had last year, and what, the smallest payroll in baseball other than the A's? I mean, it gets a little surprising. It doesn't seem like that's a team that needs to dump Jeffrey Springs. So they must have in equal parts liked what they were getting, thought they could do something with the salary relief, possibly, you know, in the open market.

I don't I don't really get it, because even Waters that I'm looking at is like, yeah, sure, maybe he has great stuff, you know, by their models, but also walked everybody and also, you know, had ERAs over five and six in the minor. So it's not about Jacob Waters. It's a little bit of a head scratcher all around. As much as we came to a place where I'm like, with the Kyle Tucker deal,

it's like, it's hard to understand what was offered and if there were better deals out there. I could see this being one that made sense for both teams. This team, this one for the A's and Rays, I'm just like. Eh. Does this make a lot of sense for either team? It speaks to how the Rays like to function. And if they didn't think Springs' stuff was going to come all the way back, then it's very hard to expect results similar to what he had pre-surgery. And given that they were in the rare position of starting pitcher depth, they said, hey, we can go get a few

guys we like, a few projects, try to tweak them. Maybe the 40-man roster was a consideration, thinking about future deadlines there and making sure they don't get squeezed. Joe Boyle, I would just look at that off the cuff and say, he's just been developed as a starter up to this point. And maybe it doesn't work for him as a starter, maybe they wanna try it. He could be a closer. But he could easily be a high leverage reliever.

That alone for Springs would end up being a good outcome. Plus you get a shot at a draft pick, which I think gives them three somewhat early picks too. So I think it's a little bit about the future, it's a little bit about not really needing Jeffrey Springs and maybe taking a couple of flyers on guys they think they can make better. And given their track record, it makes a lot of sense. So interesting thing that the A's are building though.

Will Simpson is a first baseman, which means that he has to really hit to make it work. And so far he has. He's got something, he's been better, like sort of about 40% better in league average for his career in the minor leagues. That could really work. But again, he's the first baseman, 23 already, just his first taste of double A. So I don't think any one player is what it's about. It's a, yeah, I think you're right to say it's about sort of a lot of things put together for this. And then, you know, the A's are just really not going to, you know, I'm so other than Severino.

And I think this still counts. They're not going to get anybody in free agency unless they really overpay. And so to some extent, they need to build through trades. This trade, you know, puts their pitching staff, pushes their pitching staff. And if I do starting pitching by projected wins of our replacement, it pushes their pitching staff,

their starting pitching rotation, all the way up to third worst, which is better than it was before, but you'd still be like incomplete. You know, you kind of need more work. It's Severino, Sears, Spring, Estes, and Spence. All guys, you know, other than Severino, I would say all these guys are fours or fives

for me in an ideal rotation. Still some questions too as to how the ballpark in Sacramento plays. Does it play close to a major league average park? Does it play even like a top 10 hitters park? Those are all factors as well and no matter where it falls on that range I just suggested it's a downgrade for home park for Jeffrey Springs It becomes a more difficult using him for fantasy purposes

You don't have the comfort of throwing with the trop and saying I'm gonna use him for his home starts because it works there And he gets a K bump for being that park That's gone, I agree. It's more of a bottom half of the rotation profile despite some pretty impressive results at times. Yeah, with fantasy and the starting rotation, I would only pick these guys if I was getting them below where they get normally picked in deeper leagues

and I was picking them because I just wanted innings, I wanted options. I wanted to be able to play because I just wanted innings, I wanted options. You know, I wanted to be able to play them when they were in Seattle, that sort of deal. So that fits kind of like a draft and hold situation. I think in a draft and hold I'd be willing to buy some of these pitchers as, hey, I'm buying a hundred and some odd innings with some options to play in different places and they're all, you know, relatively healthy to begin the season. And the market is low on them. That's the only, that's the,

that's the way that these guys will end up on my rosters. I don't think I would circle any of them would be like, here's a sleeper with a capital S. Just thinking about it from the perspective of the people who've been in the A's front office for a long time, even though the reason for the uptick in budget isn't exactly one that most of us would be jazzed about, seeing what they can do with more resources

allocated to them is just a good test of where they're at because I've been pretty critical about some of the trades they've made, not getting great returns for very good players in recent years. If they can take the extra stuff they're getting from John Fisher right now and turn that into more wins, great returns for very good players in recent years. Other news also comes from the Raze. Eric Nyander was on MLB Network last week. He said Shane McClanahan scheduled to throw a hundred and fifty ish innings this year.

He's been on a normal throwing program this offseason after missing all of last year with his second career Tommy John. I believe McClanahan's first Tommy John was back when he was in college. Okay, so does that change anything for you with Shane McClanahan getting a number out there for what they think his workload could look like? I don't really have any doubt that he'll be good just a sort of Five to ten percent doubt that would be good just that you know Oh, what if the field doesn't come all the way back and that can be solved by some information in spring training, right? You know, we could see a couple radar guns if he's

He's he needs to hit 99 or 100 because we want him to sit 97, you know, or at least 96 plus. But if he's 96 plus from the left side with the same kind of assortment of pitches that he had before, then I have very little doubt that he will be good. 150 innings, you know, the most we can really expect from our studs is 180 innings at this point. So 150 innings is good. I will note that right now Fangrass hasn't projected for 178.

So if you throw him into some sort of calculator or some sort of spreadsheet with that projection, then you're going to get a bigger number out for his value than you probably should. So the one thing I've been struggling with is that I kind of want to take more sure things health wise at the top of my pitching staffs going forward. I don't know that I can, he doesn't get an A health grade coming off a second time of John. Couldn't possibly, no, no.

But it's a group of pitchers we've talked about a couple of times over the course of the off season. Look at the NFBC's 80 piece from December. Kind of starts with like a Grayson Rodriguez as the top of that group of pitchers with significant injury concerns. I'd probably put a better health grade on Rodriguez than a guy coming off his second TJ. But you do look at Grayson Rodriguez and say, yeah, 150 might be what you get.

There's room for more. He won't have a cap. So that's interesting in that regard. But he's in the same group as Glass now, Sonny Gray, who's dealt have a cap, so that's interesting in that regard, but he's in the same group as Glass now, Sonny Gray, who's dealt with a lot of injuries. It's like the guys that could pitch almost like aces or SP1s if they're healthy, but it's on a per inning basis, it's not on ace volume basis based on expectations. The way that I, what makes sense to me is I think there could be room for a kind of

like Logan Webb or Fraumber Valdez plus one of those guys build, where you're kind of saying, I'm going to bank some innings from one of my guys, but I'm going to go for the upside with my other high guy. And considering that the group that you just listed was fairly large, you know, like that's for, you know, for a tier or whatever. That's a, there's options. You could say, I'm just going to get one of those guys. So, you know, I might double tap pitchers at around, you know, four or five, five, six, and try to get a guy who's boring, but gets innings and a guy who's boring but gets innings

and a guy who's hurt but is great when he's in. I think you might be able to pull that off if you want. I do think that's the way I keep looking at that group, saying, okay, I just want a little more stability before and then I'm generally in on those pitchers at those prices. We'll see how much that changes going forward. Tyrone Estrada, this happened, I think, before the winter meetings.

We didn't talk about it during the meetings, he ends up in Colorado. Brendan Rodgers gone, Tyro Estrada maybe a starter on that depth chart. What's your interest level in Estrada getting to play half his games in Coors? I guess I'm back in. I'm a little surprised that he got back on the scene. I thought he would maybe bounce around as a utility guy and maybe long term that's still you know the possibility you know to some extent he'll be battling a utility guy in Cal Farmer for some playing time and then they also have some you know some fun names at the position going forward Adele, Amador is a 21 year old that has been above average at you know most stops in the minor leagues and had a

really poor little debut last year, but a 21 switch hitter with some ability on the field in terms of making contact, taking walks. Reminds me a little of the package that we saw them trade away in Juan Brito in the past. I think Amador is knocking on the door. So basically Tyrone has this year to rebuild his value that could go either way. Maybe that just stresses him the heck out and he's not that good, you know? Or he uses that to motivate himself every day and he reestablishes himself as a major leaguer as a starter of the business and and he gets maybe traded at the trade deadline,

and then Amador takes over. That is definitely a story I could believe in. We'll go rapid on these last few. Joey Bart is the favorite to start at catcher per Ben Charington, also on MLB Network last week. Maybe a little bit of clarity on that depth chart. I think that's just one to watch closely. It probably means Henry Davis spends

a lot more time in the outfield, and maybe they're still open to moving Andy Rodriguez around, something we'd kind of speculated about before. Brian De La Cruz gets a one year non-guaranteed deal with Atlanta. My first thought was maybe he's good at mashing lefties, he'll put two with Jared Kelnick.

Doesn't have those kind of numbers for his career, but I thought there was some whisper that maybe he was trying to make a swing change last year, and that's part of why things started to fall apart on him in the second half in Pittsburgh That's something I was told about daylight cruise, but you know looking at Brian daily cruises splits for you know the different Teams he was on it doesn't look like it was one that was beneficial to him I mean his max DB went down his barrel rate went down His ground ball rate ran up his strike ball rate went up, his strikeout rate went up, his swinging strike rate went up.

There's no thing you can circle and be like, oh, this is good. He did that. So I don't know. Maybe he'll go back to the way he was before, which is kind of a fringe starter. He might just be a guy who plays just against lefties in a better team like Atlanta You'll see if he actually sticks on that roster come opening day I did see an update that Francisco Lindor has fully recovered from his back injury played really well in the postseason Even though he missed some time in September, but nice to know that he's maybe putting that completely behind him

How about this one? Andres Jimenez got traded to the Blue Jays. And I didn't really think about this when we had the conversation on the show last week, but Jason Lloyd of the athletic had a story about the build of the Guardians and pointed out that maybe this just opens up the spot for Travis Bazzana a little bit sooner too. Money dumping, getting away from the contract

for a guy that took a step back offensively was probably priority number one. But priority number two from the contract for a guy that took a step back offensively was probably priority number one. But priority number two is realizing you got a guy that went one-one in the draft that's gonna play that spot in the not so distant future. So perhaps the timeline for Basana moves up a little bit. Yeah, it's gotta be a little bit frustrating for Guardians fans to just know that it looks like $100 million is the payroll ceiling.

Because right now, after this deal, they're at $97 million and that's trading $10 million of Andres Jimenez for Luis Ortiz, who is pre-arbitration on the minimum. So this was almost to get under 100 million. Maybe that means they get to keep Josh Naylor. That's fun. They don't get to probably keep Josh Naylor on an extension after he's done next year. You just don't know what it'll take in Cleveland

to punch into even the $150 million payrolls. And I feel like they used to be a little bit more middle of the board and somehow recently they've become even more penny pitching. The nice thing is for Cleveland fans at least, it seems like a very competent front office. And whether it's Juan Burrito who I just mentioned, who might factor in at second base this year in between before Basana, or just figuring out at second base so that they don't have

to spend what are increasingly high prices for pitchers in the market. So I am going to write a piece about why the prices seem so high on free agents. You know, I guess it's disconcerting when you think as a Cleveland team, oh, we'll just get we'll bring Matt Boyd back for the back of the rotation and he goes and gets, you know, like $30 million over two years and you're kind of like, I don't even know if that's in our price range. So if you're shopping for starting pitching and you don't get Luis LRT's and you're the Cleveland Guardians, you're shopping in a bin, if you've got, say, that Jimen has $10 million to spend, I don't think you can convince a Verlander to come for that. I think you're, maybe you could get John Means, Martin Perez.

You're finding someone who helps you bridge the gap to when Shane Bieber's back, because they spent a little extra to get Bieber back, a little over 10 million, they got him for 14. And I think Bieber has a player option to go back there in 2026, which I think if Bieber's healthy and good, he's an actual free agent again,

I don't think he's opting in. That's more of a negative outcome in his first year off Tommy John surgery if he picks up that player option. But that's sort of how they spent it already, which is, you know, a guardian's way to do business. And like you said, they make it work, but it is, I think it's disheartening to be a fan of a small market team and see how low that cap really is. On top of that, if you are getting like a Martin Perez or, you know, just an innings guy to kind

of bridge the gap, you're not giving any sort of attention to the fact that Ben Lively, you know, just an innings guy to kind of bridge the gap. You're not giving any sort of attention to the fact that Ben Lively, you know, sits 90 miles an hour and may have done it on deception his first, you know, a couple of times through the league, but may not be a great bet to continue his success. And then Tristan McKenzie, you know, kind of really lost all of his command and, you know, so much of it depends on his good health and his ability to command the ball, that if you just get just a guy, then you might have three just a guys in your rotation. And that might be too many. So at least with Luis Artiz, you got a pitcher that seems competent and actually has some upside.

I mean, he throws hard, he has a really good slider. And with the cutter-sinker-slider combo that he kind of put together last year, really looked like a viable starting pitcher with maybe some upside beyond if they can teach him bring back the change up and make it a better one. Yeah, I think that's a good point. Ortiz is like a notch above a lot of the guys

they've been trying to run through the bottom of that rotation when injuries have thinned them out over the last year or so We have to go because my internet apparently is just done for the day good news is we got about an hour of content before Things went completely off the rails from a tech perspective So I'll take that as a small win at this point before we go a reminder you can join our discord the link is in The show description you can find us on blue sky. You at enosaris.bsky.social. I'm dvr.bsky.social. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you next week. Thanks for listening.