Rates & Barrels - Late January Deals & Signings, Managing Young Starting Pitchers

Episode Date: January 30, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss several noteworthy news items including a few recent trades, signings, and proclamations about opportunities for a pair of interesting 2023 rookies.  Rundown 2:53 Adalberto Mondesi: Buying Into Opportunity in Boston? 10:40 Adam Duvall's Chances of a 2021 Repeat 13:57 Grayson Rodriguez Expected to Opening in O's Rotation 26:54 Miguel Vargas: On Track for Second-Base Job? 35:15 Breaking Down the Twins-Marlins Swap 43:11 Luis Arraez: What You See, Is What You Get? 53:28 More Stability for Alex Kirilloff & Trevor Larnach 59:56 Lightning Round Signings! (Josh Harrison, Jesús Aguilar, Ian Kennedy, Nelson Cruz, Aroldis Chapman, Ian Kennedy & Zack Greinke) Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx.

What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Monday, January 30th. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris here with you on this episode. Coming off of the momentum of Pitcher Week, we are going to take a brief break from our position preview series and focus on some end-of-the-month news and notes.

There have been a handful of trades that have taken place since we last broke down transactions. There are some other updates on player health and role expectations. We want to make sure we get all of those in before going back to position previews throughout the rest of this week. Eno, how was your weekend? Did you already forget?

It's only 9.42 on Monday. Well, the football game was upsetting. Well, yeah. For you, for me, I didn't care. But it was just sad. It actually was sad. You don't want to see a season ever end like that for anybody. Fourth string quarterback gets hurt.

The third string quarterback has to come back in and can't throw. It was just like watching it happen in real time was just like, oh, it was very disappointing because with health, that would have been a fun game to watch. Even if you're a casual football fan. Yeah. You were pretty disappointed by the injuries that piled up.

There was some frustrating moments overall this weekend. I just took the kids to the trampoline park before the football game and they have like a membership there we go there and they're like oh if you still have to have a reservation even if you have a membership and we're just like i hate you so it's like a climbing gym now where you got to have a membership well it's climbing gyms you can go in as a guest though but yeah it said free jump open jump we called and, yeah, it's just open for everybody. And if you're a member, you can just come. And they were turning away members and some of the kids were crying.

I was like, I think you guys should look into this one. Figure this one out. At least warn people somehow. What was the other day? First baseball clinic of the spring for the older kid. What was the other day? First baseball clinic of the spring for the older kid. So

getting ready to... I think his assessment is this weekend. All those plans of really ramping up his arm and building his arm strength. Well, it was cold and wet. We couldn't get outside that often.

It's true. It actually was. Unseasonably terrible. So it was a little up and down weekend. Yeah, well, hey, the next one could be better, right? It's the only way to look at it. We begin today with the trade that sent Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox. We begin today with the trade that sent Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox. This came up on the 3-0 show, which by the way, if you've been watching the 3-0 show historically on the Rates and Barrels YouTube page, you will notice it's not there anymore because it's part of the Athletic Baseball Show's YouTube page. So be sure to subscribe to that page because that has a lot of other great content, interviews,

other episodes from that feed, all sorts of good stuff over there. But from a fantasy perspective, that's where this is a lot more interesting. If you're a Red Sox fan, you're looking at Mondesi and you're like, yeah, okay. He's a guy that can play shortstop. Doesn't necessarily make our team a lot better. For our purposes, this is exciting because he was a bit of a forgotten guy in Kansas City. Playing time was going to be more of a part-time role by most indications. Clearly, the front office had expressed, the previous front office had expressed some frustration with Mondesi in recent years, and even with the changes there, now he's a part of the Red Sox. So I looked at the weekend ADP

from NFBC drafts. I am not at all surprised to see that Edelberto Mondesi's weekend ADP was in the 180 range, earliest pick 158 overall, latest pick 222 overall. I think this comes back to a couple of things. One, do you buy Quique Hernandez as a regular at shortstop for the Red Sox this season? And two, do you think Mondesi can stay healthy enough to actually take advantage of this opportunity if they do in fact see him as a potential regular? No and no. so they really didn't solve the problem at all but i love the trade for the for for boston it's a it's a funny thing where uh the intersection every once in a while a transaction happens that just catches me

right between my two jobs and like my first reaction when they did this trade where they traded josh taylor who's a left-handed reliever who's been hurt and lost velocity on rehab yes they have three years of command on him but he is a reliever that's hurt and missed all of last season when they traded him for albardo moniz he said oh i love it and i love it because this is a team that has um well i'm sort of giving away a little bit of a piece that I'm working on right now. But they have the most high variance hitters for a single team in baseball. So we're looking at these 80th and 20th percentile projections.

And in fact, the Red Sox have the most with a large gap between their 80th and 20th percentile outcomes so they have a high variance team uh you know and you can see it when you look at their depth chart you're like you're like oh this team's rotation is going to be crappy if anybody gets hurt but if they're not and so Kluber Paxton resurgence sales like, like, I'm going to just come and give you 30 starts, you know, randomly, you know, you could see how like, oh, wow, this team could be good. And so when they when they traded this, I was only one year at Alberto Montesi. It's a little bit of a Hail Mary, but I love it because they didn't spend anything and they improved their 80th percentile outcome as a team. They didn't spend anything and they improved their 80th percentile outcome as a team. So their 80th percentile outcome, I think, has Alberto Mondesi starting every day at short.

But I don't think it's super likely. I'm not trying to say it's likely. And when we switch over, I put my fantasy hat on. I'm not going to be like, go get Alberto Mondesi. Yeah, you're definitely the starter. No, I don't know. He can't stay healthy. And, you know, one of the projection systems has him as just an awful, awful hitter. The bad X says he's awful.

Steamer says he's okay. I don't know. There's a range of outcomes there. I just think it's better for the Red Sox to have both. And this is my main reasoning is it has to do with Quique Hernandez. Quique Hernandez is 31 years old you know how many uh short stops qualified short stops there were over 30 years old last year no there's brandon crawford so at least before one he wasn't qualified anymore he didn't play

enough yeah oh come on he still counts that's part of it though right that's part of it you don't play enough but yeah okay you can count him if you count him you're counting him along with elvis andrews right so elvis andrews is the other right and then there's kyle farmer so which one of these players is enrique henan is like is he like brandon crawford and elvis andrews one of the guys that has been playing shortstop his whole freaking life and and and you know is is conditioned to do it and blah blah or is blah? Or is he more like Kyle Farmer, a guy who was just playing shortstop because they had to and is now not going to play shortstop anymore

where he's going to be a utility guy? That's Enrique Hernandez. So I don't have that much hope for him in terms of just being an everyday guy from the rigors of the position, hasn't played daily. had five the equivalent of five full games at shortstop last year so i i see him as being acceptable but if mondesi is healthy i think he would be a better defensive shortstop and if he's hitting at all a better overall option

so i mean yeah take him for your third or fourth shortstop in a draft draft and hold cool with that take them for a bench hitter in a 15 team league i might be cool with that because you might know early on how they're using them if you can stash them on an il you're not getting them at that kind of price. You're getting him inside the top 200 right now. You're taking him in a 15-team league. You're taking him in round 12, 13, something in that range. You're thinking about him more as a middle infielder. I think

that's a poor choice of resource. I wouldn't do that. Unless you're going to double-tap a little later and get someone else that you think will play more consistently. If you just say, I'll pay the extra to get on to see. And then get the boring guy later. If he's the guy, 30 steals over a full season is not unreasonable.

Again, the full season part's the unreasonable part. Right. The speed skill is not unreasonable. He's a flawed player. Banking steals when he's healthy, just getting 15 or 20 steals before he gets hurt, it would still actually be super valuable. I mean, think about it.

Like 100 steals in the past has put you in the top three to five in steals. Three. So if you got 15 steals from this guy, like it would actually be a lot. It would be really helpful. I'm not trying to say there's no use case for him, but I just, I would not draft him to be my starting mi yeah i mean look at the career slash line 244 280 408 this is a very flawed offensive player that

can do some of the exciting things we need in fantasy so tread carefully i would not would not go any higher than he's going right now. And I think I'd have to be pretty speed light to want to draft him where he's going. I think this is almost identical to the profile of Jorge Mateo. I would say we've seen evidence that Alberto Mondesi has more in-game power. That's the main difference between those two players. Otherwise, pretty similar. Really high strikeout rates, low walk rates, not a very good hitter overall. Right.

strikeout rates, low walk rates, not a very good hitter overall. Value him within the framework of how Mateo was utilized in your leagues. If you were able to use Mateo last year, that's fine. With the extra sort of injury asterisk. I do like him a little better

with unlimited ILs, I guess. In certain shallower leagues. If I drafted him and he didn't make the opening day, then I could stash him on IL and pick up like Segura. If like that's the kind of thing that's available on your wire. And then I just play Segura and I have him on to see stashed. And then maybe he comes and gives me 20 steals before he's hurt again.

I mean, that's sort of how I would see the season going. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Uh, the other thing the Red Sox did, since we're talking about Boston is they added Adam Duvall to help fix their center field problem. And Duvall,

much like Mondesi, because he's got a team now was going earlier in drafts over the weekend. The range was picked to 84 to three 73 ADP, just outside the top 300 overall cheap power. That's fine. It usually comes with a lower average. That's what you expect. I guess the question with Duvall is more, could we see anything close to what he has done in recent years with prolonged stretches of playing time? If you go back to 2021, 38 homers, a big time power season, 113 RBIs. I don't think the team context

is good enough for him to get to the 113 RBIs again. But is there a cheap 20-25 home run bat here because of how much they'll need to play him in that outfield mix? His barrel rate, his max TV went down last year. He's 34 years old

at this point. I'm not buying him him i think it's a uh a worse version of hunter renfro an older yeah an older version of hunter renfro yeah and i think at some point you just you got to be careful with these guys i mean it's not um like you know what you know what Joy Votto says about his career all the time is that I tried to develop the skills that would lead to the best longevity. You know, that's what he says. I do not think that Adam Duvall has the skills that lead to the best longevity. So he's already 34.

I'm not, I'm not into it. And they're going to play him in center. It's Red Sox team, man. Yeah. Do you really want to watch this team? Oh, man. I think it's either good. There's this weird sliver of chance where I end up having to write a story that's like,

how did the Red Sox make the Pubs this season? Okay. Here's how it works. They were right about Yoshida and everybody else was wrong. Here's how it works. They were right about Yoshida and everybody else was wrong. That's part of it. Devers has the MVP level campaign that I think people reasonably believe is within his range of outcomes. That could happen. Kluber, Paxton, and Montessi are all healthy.

All of them? At least two of the three. Sale's healthy. Sale has to be healthy for sure. I think Sale has to be healthy. In this fantasy world. Story comes back and there's like a DH

the second half of the season is pretty good. They get 400 plus plate appearances out of Mondesi. They're actually kind of like what he's done when he's been good. Kassus hits. What a long list. Kassus has to hit for this team to exceed expectations.

I think Durin has to come up and hit and take the job from Duval. If they are good, I don't actually see it being like Duval resurgence. I think it's almost Durant comes and takes the job. Yeah. I'm still looking at them as a bottom two in the AL East.

I think that's where I feel like they safely belong. Would you take them over the Orioles right now for wins this season? We've already done this. I said Orioles. You would take the Orioles. I'm taking the Orioles and there's some news that

makes me feel like it's possible the Orioles feel the same way and they're ready to go. The Orioles are expecting this is according to their GM,, so the Orioles are expecting, this is according to their GM, Mike Elias, they're expecting Grayson Rodriguez to make the rotation out of spring training.

So Mike Elias was on MLB Network Radio this weekend with Jim Bowden when he laid out this scenario. That's great. I mean, this is a team that's on the rise. We saw evidence of it last year. We saw them push prospects pretty aggressively. Even guys that didn't debut in the big leagues. There were some players moving to the upper levels of their system that they just moved up because they decided it was time.

Are you comfortable with Grayson Rodriguez, where he tends to go in drafts, knowing that we've got some very tight workload restrictions? How they do it, I think, is up for debate. But there will be pretty tight restrictions on Grayson Rodriguez this year. If what we've seen in the minor leagues is any indication, the in-start workloads, the annual workloads because of injuries have been limited. What's the best-case scenario workload-wise for a guy that back in 2021 got just over 100 innings? Are we looking at 125 to 130 regular season innings for Grayson Rodriguez and saying that's the reasonable ceiling for him? Well, we did have also a good question in the mailbag about if we should be using pitches. So I thought I would try this out.

You know. In 2021, Grayson Rodriguez had 1,586 pitches. He had 23 starts. 69, nice, pitches per appearance, per start. So I think that's what we've seen from somebody like tyler wells that last year got the roll in for the first month two months of the season he never cracked 80 pitches and he averaged around 65 70 pitches per start Now later in the season he peaked started peaking around 80 even hit 90 a couple times and then at the end of the season after some

injury he petered out with more 50s and 60s again. So peak output for Tyler Wells who is not the prospect that Grayson Rodriguez is at all, was about 80 pitches per start. Grayson Rodriguez in the past has 69 pitches per start. He has 1,600 pitches in his bag. Last year was a little bit below that, more like 1,200. So I would say 1, 1600 is the max for him. If you do 1600 divided by 80, you get 20 starts. So then the question is for fantasy value,

let's say, okay, 20 starts, only goes about five innings, so that's what you get out of 80 pitches. We got a Drew Rasmussen here, who's, you know, I'm not saying they're the same in terms of like hype and prospect and ability. I'm just saying the Drew Rasmussen use case is the same, right? We're like, oh, I know this guy's only getting 80 pitches per start. How valuable can he be to me? And the difference is Drew Rasmussen was showing really good command.

So this puts a lot of pressure on Grayson Rodriguez's command to be fantasy valuable, right? Because if he only has 80 pitches, yes, you can go like five or six on that. Drew Rasmussen did. He got some wins. But you got to be really efficient and you got to have really good command.

Grayson Rodriguez has a 40 slash 50 from Fangraphs on present versus future command. If you think he can hit the ball you know hit the ground running and have like a 250 walks per nine then he'll have some wins if he struggles a little bit with the walks he's he might have six wins in 20 starts so now you're talking about 20 starts i mean the nice thing would be you would still get maybe 120 strikeouts. 20 starts,

120 strikeouts, 6 wins, pretty good ERA. 20 starts? I don't know. That seems strange. What? Just to bring a guy up to do 20 starts?

Well, I mean, you'd rather get 20 than nothing. Why have him pitch at AAA? If he's big league ready, get as much as you can out of him and deal with the times he's not available. That's better than... Yeah, and they're thinking we want to build him up in a healthy way to 25, 30 starts in the future. And it seems to be the way

that they did it with Tyler Wells last year. I mean, I think that's the most likely outcome outcome the question is just how much fantasy value that has it comes down to a lot of factors anytime we're talking about players with limitations how many roster spots do you have available right is it a typical five or seven player bench are quality of players in the waiver wire high enough where you could just use the way you could in the waiver wire high enough where you can use the waiver wire as an extension of your bench? If no, if you're talking deeper mixed leagues, and this time of year everyone's talking about 15-team NFBC-style leagues, if you're thinking about leagues that are not the draft and hold variety where you've got 50 players in your roster, I find players with significant restrictions in workload very tough to roster start to finish.

It helps a lot that they aren't trying to, based on these comments, trying to slow play him in the minor leagues for a few weeks because waiting and then dealing with this is even worse. Because then it's fabapalooza and you got to throw $150 fab on him. Right. At least this way. Let's just say. Let's say it is 70, 75, 80 pitches per outing. Something in that range. It seems like a very reasonable expectation. Five innings is at least possible with that workload cap.

But how often is he going to go five? How often is he going to be eligible for a win? Will they ever throw openers in front of him? Is there any reason to believe they would just do that? Probably not. I would assume they would just do that? Probably not. I would assume they would use him like a regular starter. This is a guy that they see as the front of the line ace that they've

wanted for a long time. So throwing an opener in front of him probably isn't the way to get him into that routine of being the guy that just goes out there, starts the game, and goes as far as he possibly can. So all of this is to say what I'm

afraid is going to happen is people are going to see this news and react by pushing him up the board. Any chance that you could get away with drafting him where he goes and being okay on a per-start basis and saying, the K rate's going to be high enough, the ratios are going to be good enough, the low innings won't matter, low win count won't even matter that much.

I'm okay with this at pick 175, 180, 185, in that range. Let's say you are okay with that. Are you okay with that at 140, 130, if he gets that two or three round bump, which seems like the kind of thing that can happen just because of the ceiling that Grayson Rodriguez has. Who are the other pitchers that are going around 130?

Once you get to the 130 range, then you're pushing him up against Jesus Lizardo, Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, totally different kind of pitcher, Freddie Peralta, Dustin Mays at 150. Is Dustin Mays versus Grayson Rodriguez a fair toss-up? Like Peralta, I think, is the one where I'd be like, you know, they both have, like, I think Peralta has really good upside, you know? And less likely to be playing all these games with him.

You know, he's at the age and the part of his contract where I think they're like, all right, if you're healthy, you're in there, right? Are they going to play, like, you to play 70 pitches per appearance games with him? I mean... I think they have options through 2026. I didn't know. He signed a five-year deal? Yeah, they gave him one of those team-friendly extensions. Anyway, I guess I could...

Drew Rasmussen was last year's 30th best pitcher. He got 11 wins in 146 innings, and he threw 2,200 pitches. Like, I don't think Grayson Rodriguez can all that so you're you're probably just out then i think i'm just out for this year it's it's it's a great profile and in many situations that doesn't work like yeah i don't know i i just the yeah i mean there there's a fair amount of risk in those arms that you just said around him that That's interesting, right? I could actually, even still at 130, I don't know, Chris Sale or

Grayson Rodriguez. Grayson Rodriguez, exciting, young, healthy. Maybe he'll just blow the doors off the league. I thought that you would say some name where I'm like, oh, well, this guy, obviously. Peralta's close, but Peralta has a bunch of innings.

Peralta is projected for 130 innings. I get it. He's had arm trouble. He's had the previous work in the bullpen, so it's a fair question to ask about him. Can he stay healthy and be a starter for a full season? And sail 140.

There's not an innings horse around them. Lazard has been hurt repeatedly. I think, though, the thing is, Sale and Peralta, if they're in, they're not going to have these 70 pitches per appearance type workloads.

They're just going to go. Their risk is just the typical injury risk then modified to their own history based on age. Right, it's elevated because of who they are. There's a risk that Grayson Rodriguez pitches well and is last year's Drew Rasmussen, the one that has 80 innings and six wins or something.

Four wins. That's also in the range, and that's why this is part of the problem. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus

today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built in so you can change the music oh yeah alexa change station to 99.2 see purchase a 2024 escape st line all-wheel drive with tech pack at 3.49 apr for 72 months with down payment that's just 267 bi-weekly cash value of 40 294 plus4. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. Let's make this like the Price is Right cliffhangers game. We're not going to do yodeling.

You can yodel to yourself if you want to. I won't add it in in production because it's not everyone's favorite. So I'm going to take Grayson Rodriguez. I'm going to keep putting him up against people ahead of him right now in ADP. And you just tell me who you'd see. It's a spin on would you rather.

But Grayson Rodriguez versus John Gray. Because that's where he's sitting right now. Who are you taking in that spot? For 2023 only, of course. John Gray. Okay. So we didn't get anywhere. We didn't get very far.

Little man going up the mountain didn't even get started. little man going up the mountain didn't even get started while people are yodeling in their cars let's let's try a couple more and just see if there's anyone else that's going ahead of gray and rodriguez that you'd actually you know think is going too early oh there's drew raspison himself so it is yeah okay how about pablo lopez you're taking pablo lopez ahead Lopez ahead of Grayson Rodriguez we're getting closer though that's weird you're going up I'm going up

yeah I'd still take Pablo Lopez but it's closer on that one than the other one so far maybe I've got one Brady Singer versus Grayson Rodriguez yeah I'll take Grayson Rodriguez but this is a Brady Singer thing this isn't a Grayson Rodriguez you're just going to find pitchers I don't like Kodai Sing'll take Grayson Rodriguez. But this is a Brady Singer thing. This isn't a Grayson Rodriguez thing. You're just going to find pitchers I don't like. Kodai Singha

versus Grayson Rodriguez? I have Kodai higher. It's an interesting one, though. Alright, we've settled this. Grayson Rodriguez, if he moves up, you're just not bothering. It's pretty clear. I'm pushing him as hard as I can. Right now, I have him

59 ahead of Jesus Lizardo, behind Jordan Montgomery, Pablo Lopez, Jose Barrios. I know some people, especially people who play in Dynasty and Keeper, they'd be like, what? You have him behind Jordan Montgomery?

What? Grayson Rodriguez is amazing, but I'm just, this is for this year only. Yep. That's it. That's what it is. So I think he could become cost prohibitive if that bump that we're expecting happens.

I would trade eight Jordan Montgomery's for one Grayson Rodriguez. It was a keeper. Yes. Very well said. If that was possible. Let's move on to another prospect-related matter. Andrew Friedman was also on MLB Network Radio this weekend, and when asked by Jim Bowden about how he saw the infield being pieced together at this time,

the response was Max Muncy probably at third, Gavin Lux at short, Miguel Vargas at second, Chris Taylor in the outfield, and Miguel Rojas as the utility option, which kind of makes me happy because that's what I guy that holds it all together if any one of the young guys isn't playing as well as I'd like so how does this make you feel about Miguel Vargas and does this actually change anything for you about Max Muncy too just thinking about how the Dodgers might be picturing him as a regular now at third base and and is that long term even something they could they could get away with for more than this season yeah Yeah, I suppose the thing is with the new shift rules, you want someone who's a little bit more spry on their feet. I think Max Muncy is exactly the type of defensive second baseman

we'll see less of in the coming years. And so, you know, moving over to third, it's a quick twitch, quick reaction, rather than putting a lot of pressure on him, having a lot of range and being spry on his feet. I think the second baseman is going to have to cover more ground against lefties this coming season. So you put the younger guy over at second.

I thought Vargas was not that great defensively. That's just my thought. So I thought he would maybe end up in the corner outfield and Chris Taylor plays center. But maybe Chris Taylor's days as a center fielder are numbered. He is getting older and traditionally it's like shortstop where you have like two guys over 30 playing center field and he's 32, you know, and the defensive numbers have fallen off a little bit for him. So this keeps Chris Taylor in the corner outfield. Trace Thompson, I guess, is the center fielder. And Miguel Vargas is immediately much sexier.

Now that someone has anointed him the probable starter at a position, I just want to point out that he has that delectable combination of good eye at the plate and really good hit tool. And I think it's going to lead to high batting averages, high on base percentages. And the power is somewhat of a question mark. He had good power in the minor leagues. Last year, a 106 max EV for Miguel Vargas is not amazing. minor leagues. Last year, a 106 max EV for Miguel Vargas is not amazing. 8.6% barrel rate is above average, but not what you would call standout power. However, it was 50 plate appearances,

and he had just been murdering AAA and AA in his last few stops, so I think this will work out i think he could be a 280 hitter with 20 homers in his first full season um these the stolen bases are a little bit hard especially with the rule changes he had 16 at triple a but fewer you know going back uh how often would they let him run on a team like this will he play in the bottom uh third of that lineup? There are some really interesting findings, though, from Jeff Zimmerman recently. He just did stolen base opportunities by lineup slot. And it turns out that going from first in the lineup to second costs you the most in stolen base opportunities. fact, hitting 6th, 7th, and 8th increases your stolen base. It increases the rate at which players steal

bases from those line of slots. So, maybe he will steal, because he'll be at the bottom of the lineup. Get into scoring position. Lesser quality bats behind you in the bottom of the order, so you've got to make some things happen. If you were building this lineup, where would

Miguel Vargas hit? He's probably hitting seventh. Yeah, it's hard to, at least at the beginning of the season, hard to pencil him in much higher than there. You're going to have Freeman, Betts, and Muncy near the top.

Will Smith, J.D. Martinez Will Smith, J.D JD Martinez, 4-5. Taylor, 6. Lux, 7. Vargas, 8. Yeah, I mean, if you're mixing and matching lefties and righties, could change that by one. But generally, that seems about right.

Maybe he steals 10 bases. So now you're talking about a guy who in his first year could hit 280 with 18 to 22 homers and 10 stolen bases. That'll play just fine. With second base eligibility, CIMI eligibilities by the second week of the season. And he's starting first base only. So when you listen to our first base position preview,

he'll come up a little bit in there. But I do think if I'm looking at vargas and same way i was looking at grayson rodriguez pushing him up a little bit assuming people are going to get more excited about him over the course of spring i look at vargas versus let's just let's just say cattell marte different position for now but cattell marte a second base only you're kind of expecting vargas to be that sort of player, lower in the order, with maybe more speed than Marte

is going to provide at this stage. We'll see if Marte gets back to running with healthier legs this year, but it's hard to bank on that. But I think fringe top 200 is actually acceptable. I think Vargas is one of those players that can creep up a little bit

in terms of ADP, and I'm still very interested. And Lux with those huge new arms of his I I always thought he was the shortstop I thought the Rojas thing was you know it was a depth acquisition and given that it was a depth acquisition I thought they could have just kept the player they traded and had him play utility but at least Rojas is a more known commodity with a higher floor than the guy they traded away. So Lux is the shortstop. And if he adds, the only thing that I've always complained about with him is, you know, the raw power. And if he adds any raw power to what he has been doing so far, he's still a breakout candidate.

You know, at 25, he's a year away from his peak season. And in terms of plate discipline, contact ability, nice sort of balanced, for the most part, balanced ground ball, fly ball, pull, oppo mixes.

Seems like he can hit it all over. So just adding some oomph would be a big deal. I would like to see. It might be one of those things where I hate to say spring homers. That's something to watch for. But in his case, we're looking for more power. Yeah, it's lost because of the context of the league last year,

but it was the best season offensively for Gavin Lux as a big leaguer. He's done a good job really maintaining the improved plate skills from when he first debuted. It was such a small sample back in 2019. We saw him late in the year. His 2020 was as much of a lost season as just about anyone's, but running a K rate in the low 20% range, walking enough,

just a good real-life player to start, and now he's tacking maybe a little more power on top of that. Has some speed, of course, to go with it. 7 for 9 as a base stealer last year. Kind of fits that bill of someone that would be running a bit more with the new rules. Or we'll find out.

Was that an AI thing with his... With his arms? You're convinced that this was not actually real. Give me Gavin Lux with bigger arms. Give me Gavin Lux with Mark McGuire's arms. You know, that this was not actually real. Give me Gavin Lux with bigger arms. Give me Gavin Lux with Mark McGuire's arms. You know, if someone made that for baseball where you could just Frankenstein

players together, it would be a very popular thing that people would play with. Oh my God. It wouldn't make any money, but it'd be popular. Most of my ideas are just like that. Andy Diaz's arms on Chris Sale. This is like an April Ludgate from Parks and Rec thing.

She was describing her ideal man. She's like, Yao Ming's torso with Frankenstein's head. And it's like, you know, just basically that, but with baseball players. There was another trade that went down, and I think we got to this at some point on one of the other episodes,

just in passing, but in detail. We can look at this one a bit more now. Twins Marlins hook up on a deal. Pablo Lopez goes to Minnesota. Luis Arias, the big leaguer, going back the other way. A couple of minor leaguers also going with Lopez to Minnesota. Jose Salas and Byron Churio. I was surprised

that the Marlins were adding prospects because this seemed pretty balanced as it was. Arias has one extra year of club control left, so I thought that would offset maybe the difference in shorter term value. We know the Marlins had a lot of pitching. Part of this is that Chisholm's going to play center field,

which also seems weird, but hey, the Marlins are the Marlins. Let's just start with the pitching side of this first. Pablo Lopez leaving a very pitcher-friendly environment. What do you see for him in Minnesota? How does this change his value, if at all? Rize actually has three years. Thank God. I was like, man, just one more year after this

though no no yeah he's got he's got a little more time he's got three um uh pablo lopez it took i think a line drive off the wrist and there's a good piece on fan graphs um sorry i don't have it right in front of me uh that's just about how ever since he took that line drop off line drop off his wrist his foreseam his active spin percentage his foreseam ride has been down and that's absolutely germane to the discussion that we were having online and here about the true value of Pablo Lopez's changeup because my stuff number has it as above average 103 or whatever. By looks, it's a beautiful changeup. By results, it was a pretty good changeup that's been better in the past.

Well, you know what changeups do? They depend on the shape of the fastball. And so since Pablo Lopez's fastball has changed shape, his changeup hasn't been less effective. So if the Twins can get some more rides, some more active spin out of that fastball, it'll make the changeup better. And having someone on Fangraphs point it out suggests to me that that's a distinct possibility for the Twins. And if that's the case, then we got a guy with Pablo Lopez that has an elite changeup, a pretty good fastball, and command of his two breaking balls that are decent. Four-pitch guy, you know, with an elite pitch and command of most of his pitches. That's pretty exciting. And I think that

might be enough to overcome the sort of park-related switches. The park-related switch. You'd always want Pablo Lopez in Miami might be enough to overcome the sort of park related switches the park related switch you'd always want pablo lopez in miami more than you want him in minnesota but minnesota is not a bad place to go and if they tweak his mix and get him better uh so i think he's a good middle of the middle of the packish uh pitcher that could be um a team's second best pitcher. But the price on the Marlins side for a rise was too much for him. We're talking about a guy, yes, he makes contact. And I think what happens sometimes for organizations is they make an edict, they have a plan, and I like having plans, and I like going all in,

but you also want to stay reasonable and not get so far into the plan that you forget other things. So the idea that came out in the papers in Miami was that they were really going to focus on contact. Well, Luis Urias, if you focus on contact, you're like, well, that's a really good player. He makes a lot of contact. Yes. He is a bad body, bad defense, no power, not much patience, second baseman that was already losing second base eligibility. And you just made him your fourth second baseman on your team. You're going to have a second baseman at third, a second baseman at second base, a second base at center field, and a second baseman at short.

You have four second basemen on the field. That's when you've gone too far into the contact thing. And you added, you don't have that many offensive prospects that are worth anything. And you added Fernando Salas, who I don't know that he is that amazing of a prospect, and especially not the old Fernando Salas.as uh it's francisco salas isn't it jose salas jose salas there we go fernando salas god you're taking a 37 year old um jose salas is uh that's the wrong j Salas. Thank you. He is, okay, he's not that great yet, and he could be. That's also not the right Jose Salas. Great.

He, no, no, he's exciting because he makes a decent amount of contact, has a decent amount of patience. The power could all be from his legs. You know, when you're looking at a guy who has barely league average amount of contact has a decent amount of patience the power could all be from his legs you know when you're looking at a guy who has barely league average isolated slugging percentages and also good stolen base totals in the minor leagues so that could all be with the legs so we have no idea how hard he hits the ball and without knowing how hard he hits the ball you're just left guessing how good of a prospect he is because if he doesn't hit the ball hard it's a bit of a more of a like a utility

backup kind of profile like how hard you hit the ball is immensely important in baseball i'm sorry just like almost the number one thing i would ask about a player sure sure i i think with with someone like luis arias like when you put the ball in play as often as he does, you're going to get a very low sort of maneuver where you look at it and say, okay, if he can play good defense somewhere, that also adds more real-life value. I'm not sure that he ever will really do that. Is there a position where you like Luis Urias defensively? You know, second base is okay, I guess.

Second base, he's not that spry. He's closer to Max Muncy than you'd want to admit in terms of speed. Can we do that? Who runs faster, Luis Urias or Max Muncy? Urias is 38th percentile, so this

could be close. Yeah, this is going to be close. What's Muncy? Muncy's 317 out of 582 oh my god muncie's faster yes muncie's faster he's 46 percent time i love baseball man max muncie is faster than luis arias dude nobody nobody would have guessed that there's a few things luis arias though i've watched i've watched enough random twins games over the last couple of seasons he does kind of stand out to you when you watch him he just does things that that smart ball players do like he has those instincts that that make an average player a good player,

make a good player a very good player. He does those things well. He might not have great sprint speed, but he's a good base runner when you watch him run the bases. That is a way to make your speed play up. I don't like this move in the sense that I don't think this solves the Marlins' problems, but I probably don't hate it as much as most people hate it. I'm just surprised they gave up a couple of prospects as part of the deal. I really thought it was fair one for one. I don't know if there's any way to even look at Arias at this point and say, he'll unlock more power. He'll have one of those seasons, either like the year of the rabbit ball season from Jeff McNeil, where he somehow gets into the 20 home run range. I don't

think that's coming. Yeah, especially going to that ballpark. That's just not going to happen. But he fits on your fantasy team if you do everything else a certain way. It's just not a profile that I end up putting on rosters very often. He plays so much more for me in a mono league setting

or a draft and hold setting where the average and the runs like that'll be fine like those categories are totally fine to get from a guy that should be almost an everyday player he's either leadoff guy pretty easily like on an everyday basis as of right now he's the best projected offensive player they have on the roster by wrc plus he's got a 118 wrc plus that is the best marlins hitter it projection. Another thing about second baseman, it's like you have a ton of two-hitters too. I could go Arias, Wendell, Segura.

No, Jazz has got to be two, I guess. So Arias, Jazz, Avisail, Soler. Soler, when he's in, is probably your three-hitter. Soler. And then when you get to 4 and 5 sometimes having contact is good so you could actually go Soler like Wendell, Segura, Avisail Brian De La Cruz

as the lineup it's still pretty bad the one thing I also am nervous about and there's this great piece by ben clements about finding sleepers based on the difference between their max power output their raw power max ev they're in his case he used 95th percentile um and their average exit velocity and he used that to find sleepers and it's a it's a fun list of sleepers uh that produces guys like o'neill cruz michael harris the second nolan jones who we we've uh talked about a little bit uh in

our outfield uh profile that's coming up um and then some like a little bit longer shots i think because the contact rate joey bart and joe ad. Anyway, Jesus Sanchez is on this list, and I'm just worried that this fetishization of strikeout rate will lead to not wanting to play Jesus Sanchez, who I think has good power upside, good overall upside, good power upside, good overall upside, especially if he continues to improve his contact rate and power at the same time, which is possible as Max TV went up last year

and his bail rate in his first year was 12.5% and 10% last year. So there's some really good batted ball authority here. And I would hate for them to be like, well, he strikes out too much and we're the go-go slap it around marlins right now the other on the other way i could see it though is wow you know we have a lot of guys who can hit singles but we need a couple guys who can hit homers so maybe jesus sanchez uh with jazz in center uh can swim move past Brian De La Cruz because the

defensive the pressure would be less on the glove. Do you not see that? You're making a face. I'm making a face because I just keep looking at this depth chart and I'm like, okay let's build a bench. We can't build a bench, we have to build a starting lineup first.

Joey Wendell's not a shortstop, right? Backup shortstop could be birdie, I guess. They have Groshans on Fangraphs already. If you start Joey Wendell at shortstop, it means you don't care about shortstop defense. Might as well be birdie. It breaks the rules of build a bench. Oh, no, they have another second baseman.

I forgot they have John Birdie. Why? Why would you not just play Jazz Chisholm at shortstop in this scenario? Why would you not play him there? I must be worried about his defense. Is Wendell better than him at defense?

Right. You're probably not going anywhere right now. Wouldn't you rather see if Jazz can be your shortstop even for three or four years? They are going somewhere. I mean, they're trying to win some games, it looks like. You don't trade Pablo Lopez for Lisa Riaz if you're rebuilding. You only get three years of Lisa Riaz. They think they can do something in the next three years.

they think they can do something in the next three years. There's other fallout from this trade, too, just looking at the Marlins rotation, right? So Sandy, Jesus Lizardo, the 1-2 right now. They signed Johnny Cueto. You didn't sign Johnny Cueto, so he's in. So then you get two spots, unless you're going to go to a six-man rotation, which they probably want two spots

for a combination of Trevor Rodgers, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and then other younger pitchers. Don't say those names. Don't get excited about them. Yuri Perez not coming up. So, yeah, I think it comes down to Braxton Garrett versus Trevor Rodgers in the spring. It's going to be a little bit of if Rodgers is healthy, what the question is.

I think Rodgers' slider kind of comes and goes and there's his fastball son kind of comes and goes so I think Rogers has more upside than Garrett and the model liked Rogers last year even when he was imploding so he's just a weird cat to try and predict I suppose there's a world where Edward Cabrera goes back down and works on his command or picks mix some and Rodgers and Garrett both make it. But if you're in a league where it doesn't matter so much who starts the season, like a draft and hold, then I think all three of those guys are great picks. If you're in a league where it matters who's starting in the first week, then if you're drafting now,

then drafting Trevor Rodgers or Edward Cabrera, I think, is pretty risky. Oh, man. How could they not have Cabrera in that rotation? When he's healthy, he's just electric. Give him a spot. See what happens. Yeah, and Braxton Garrett is more of a guy who has command of a few pitches and doesn't have standout stuff.

But are we getting anywhere near the end of... He's got one option left, so Garrett can go down. I bet you Rodgers has zero. What, Trevor Rodgers has three option years left? He wasn't on the 40, man, very long before he got a chance to debut.

That actually makes sense. Braxton Garrett, 17 starts last season over a strikeout per inning. Didn't have a control problem. Good ratios. 350 ADRA, 125 whip. If that dude's getting sent down, then yeah, your pitching's in really good shape. Yeah, they're still in pretty good shape.

I wouldn't have signed Cueto, I think, but it makes sense to push Braxton Garrett to the sixth starter, I think, or take some pressure off of Trevor Rodgers. Yeah, and you get a few younger guys that if you do bring them up, they're going to have some workload concerns. I could see the case for Cueto just being the guy that's there that gives them a little more flexibility with the schedules of the young guys whose

innings they might be trying to control more carefully. I just noticed something that upsets me. Yeah? Trevor Rogers in the new model is a 101 stuff plus guy. That's up or down? Down. Braxton Garrett is 94.

That's close. I still think Rogers isxton Garrett is 94. That's close. I still think Rogers is ahead of Garrett if they're both healthy. That's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. Let's look at the Minnesota side of this rotation adjustment now. Pablo Lopez, good get for them. No doubt about that. So you got Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Malley, and probably Kenta Maeda.

That's your starting five, right? Maeda has no restrictions this spring. So now they're in the position where Bailey Ober is an extra guy. Josh Winder, who I think was really effective in the swing role, extra guy. That's probably a good spot for him. Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the first guys up if they lose someone. Their pitching depth does look a lot better today just by having a healthy Maeda and now adding Lopez than it did when this offseason started. Yeah, they look better equipped to handle things. Varland and Louis Varland and Josh Winder just are decent.

I think they're the guys that come up if it's a few starts, if it's a one or two start situation, they can kind of go between them because you can only option a guy down a few times. There's limits on how many times you can option, you can bring a guy up and put him down. So I think they'll switch between Winder and Varlin in that case. But if there's a long-term injury, like if Tyler Malley's shoulder is really busted up, then I think Bailey Ober jumps right in there and can take it

because he's the guy with the most upside. He came back last year. And though the stuff numbers are not great, I believe that the twins, with their fascination with kinetrax, which is the first limb tracking devices, that they are out there on deception. They know deception pretty well.

Ober has a very sort of extreme delivery that I could see being very deceptive. And when he came back from off of injury last year, in late September, he did have full kind of starts. Like he had 5-5, seven and a third, 10 strikeouts, zero earned runs, one walk against the White Sox. He looked pretty good down the stretch

against middling competition, but he looked pretty good. So I'm excited about Ober, but right now I think he's the sixth starting pitcher until you hear someone's injured. So that makes it a little bit difficult. He's a little bit more in the sixth starting pitchers I like group than the fifth starting pitchers I like. Yeah, I think that's a fair place to put him.

Arias being gone from the Twins depth chart actually clarifies some playing time a little bit. I think it gives a clear path to Alex Kirilov, health permitting. I've liked Kirilov throughout this draft season. I would not be surprised if he got a little bit of a bump. And then you look around at the DH spot now, maybe there's a little bit more up for grabs there. And that's part of the way. If Arias moves around all over,

then there's just a squeeze. So Trevor Larnak might have a clearer path to playing time as well as a result of Luis Urias being gone just because of the way the pieces fit together on this roster. He's a bit of a DH type too. That's one of the reasons I think that he wasn't getting a better shot, a little bit of a lug. I think Nick Gordon is their new Urias,

and he's going to play all over. Jose Miranda is going to play all over. And, you know, Jose Miranda's going to play the corners and trade off with Kirilov a little bit. And I think Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon, like if we're building a bench, they're newly acquired Michael Taylor in center. Nick Gordon, I think Kyle Farmer might be the backup shortstop. Nick Gordon is the

backup of everything else. Ryan Jeffers, that means you have one slot left even beyond Larnach. You could put Larnach in at DH. Maybe put Celestino if you want to go heavy on outfield defense. But there's one more slot behind Larnach.

So I think Larnach makes his team for sure. And if Larnach makes his team, I think he gets most of the DH at bats. What's left is maybe Walner, Celestino. I don't know. You've seen something I'm not seeing here on this depth chart? No, I think that's a pretty good read of it. I think Taylor probably bumps Celestino off the roster. That's what I was afraid of.

Most likely. Is Walner a righty? No, he's also a lefty. So there's a little bit of a... Maybe they signed Luke Voigt. Walner, Larnak, and Joey Gallo. All on the same roster. That's a lot of Ks.

That's a lot of Ks. A lot of power too, though. Yeah. Put those three guys in the same BP group. I could actually see this team signing Luke Voigt and having a Luke Voigt-Trevor Larnach-DH situation. It'd be kind of rough, though, because then the playing time caps for both of those guys would take a hit. But it does, from a real-life perspective, make sense.

One thing I just noticed, looking at the Twins' ADPs right now, Byron Buxton is their only top 100 player. He's barely in there. He's picked 90. This is a really solid team, right? Carlos Correa goes around pick 120. Jose Miranda, who I believe over the weekend, Carlos Correa said looked sexy at Twins Fest or whatever that is. I guess that means he's been working out. First and third eligible, pick 144. We did the corner previews already. Those are rolling out very soon. I think one or both of those will air this week.

I wasn't all in on him. He's actually one of the players that I've been kind of careful with because there are other guys I like in that range a bit more. It's a bummer because I liked him going into last season. It's the weirdest feeling in the world. Liking a player one year, having the player come through, and then backing away

the next year, especially when the cost isn't that bad. A pick 150 range pick isn't that much. It's not like he jumped up into the top 50. I know exactly what you're talking about. I have that feeling all the time. I got that right and now I don't like this guy. It's not that I don't like him. It's that everybody else

is just willing to pay more than I am. Suddenly you're behind the pack on Jose Urquidy. How did that happen? Right. Same kind of thing going on there. I guess the thing with Miranda that I'm curious about is I want to see if he's able to increase his barrel rate. We did see some pretty intriguing power from him in 2021. That was 30 home runs combined between AA and AAA. Hit 15 last year as a rookie at the big league level. Is there one more level with his power in the big leagues?

If there is, he ends up being a bargain that I'm passing on. And that'll be for the worst for me. And right now, the StatCast numbers actually go hand in glove with the scouting numbers in terms of the Fangraph scouting numbers. Game power, 4550. And the bail rate, 6%. db 109 those are just barely above average that's a 45 50 uh 45 and scouting parlance is is is average and when there's a slash line you're talking about future versus present so they think he could be have above

average power they're thinking that maybe this year, if he grew into that 50 power, he would be somebody that could hit 270 with 20 homers. Is that about 50 power? It's a good player. Yeah, I think so. That's what I'd call that 50 power. It's not great at the corners though. No, but you can move him to two spots.

I guess if he doesn't offer much in terms of steals, that it puts more pressure on the average being better than 270 for him to take a leap above that range. And he's not going to steal bases. And then the little Fangraphs graduation blurb. Miranda is doing the Thai-France dance as a positionless masher. Yeah, that's actually kind of a great comp statistically right now. That's not bad.

That's really good. Righty on the corners that should play a lot and is dependent on those categories really kind of carrying his value so it's like it's kind of like he's appropriately priced and i'm not sure i see another level based on the underlying numbers right now if he gets to more power then hey i'm wrong he's been hitting crossfit or whatever it is that's making him look sexy in the eyes of carlos correa good for him so far, he's been a player that I haven't been drafting. I think also with the rise

leaving town, just his playing time got a little bit more safer. I don't think that... I think that he would have to take a real downturn in offense for them to want Kyle Farmer to start at the third base over him. I don't know if they even want Kyle Farmer on that roster

anymore. Could be twice traded in the same offseason just based on how that thing is coming together right now in Minnesota. A little bit duplicitous with Nick Gordon, right? I think so. I think Nick Gordon should play a lot more than Kyle Farmer. Lightning round signings. Got a bunch

of minor moves that have happened, so we'll see if you think there's any impact here from a fantasy perspective. You could throw out the league type in which you might be interested. Josh Harrison to the Phillies. who was just slightly above league average with a bat in the second half, was that skills growth or was that just noise? Because the bat wave was a little bit higher. So some question of where Bryson Stott is. Obviously a very important player for the Phillies, obviously a good real-life player because he's got defense and he's a decent bat.

But for you to be a good fantasy player, you need to have plus bat. So that's what Harrison makes me think about with his actually stop. I think that's the biggest impact he has on leagues is what he potentially does to Bryson Stotts playing time. Harrison, for me, more of a mono-league sort of player at this point.

Jesus Aguilar to the A's. Could we see a rebound from Aguilar, or do you think underlying numbers have fallen to the point where they're grasping at straws? They used to do this more often. I like that they did this again. You shouldn't believe bounce back projections for 32

year olds and the Bat X says you particularly shouldn't believe it for Jesus Aguilar. I think I'm out given how bad that stadium is for power. You were talking about Luke Voigt possibly ending up in Minnesota. If Aguilar sticks with the A's, it might even be more of a Luke Voigt sort of role

where they've got enough other guys that can move around. They can afford a right-handed first base DH type, but small side platoon doesn't really play anywhere. I'm pretty interested in Ryan Noda the more I look because I think the A's should just see what he can do. I know, and Dermis Garcia was on this sleeper thing from Ben Clemens. I mean, why not just play Dermis Garcia and Ryan Noda some more instead of this Aguiar situation?

But the real problem at second base and shortstop for the A's is just no offense right now. And I don't really see anybody coming through except for somebody you just mentioned recently. Zach Galoff? Yeah, Zach Galoff, I think, is one of their next prospects who we're going to see in the big leagues. Super, super deep draft and hold situation, but interesting guy. Hurt his shoulder last year.

Yeah. So lost some time with a shoulder injury. I think that explains some of the power dip too with the move of the double A, but a player that I think will probably bring that K rate down over time and should get to the power pretty consistently. Right in there with the Jordan Diaz could play a lot, but I think Galov has a higher ceiling. I think he's the guy that I like a lot more long term if I have to choose one for a keeper or a dynasty league.

I rolled his Chapman to the Royals. I think that came up during the closer episode just because we had that back on Friday. Is he the guy in kansas city or is it still scott barlow or do you see them going a different direction entirely i'm trying to find barlow on here scott barlow had um okay numbers but uh his i think his velo dropped over the course of the season yeah i thought you said he had a bad fastball last year. I think that was one of the concerns with Barlow. Yeah, I think he's an above-average reliever.

And Aroldis Chapman actually still had great stuff last year. The difference is kind of mind-boggling. 128 stuff plus for Aroldis Chapman, 109.7 for Scott Barlow, so 110. It's a big difference in stuff. Plus, Aroldis Chapman had the worst location plus among relievers in baseball last year, among all pitchers. So Aroldis Chapman. But, you know, if he finds his command a little bit,

that seems like a place where they could make a change. Added Zach Greinke to the rotation as of Monday also. So he's back for one more year in Kansas City. 368 ERA last year, 134 whip. I think that's the worst whip we've seen from Greinke since 2006. It was only six innings that year. May not get better with the new shift rules. 73 Ks last year and 137 innings.

That's brutal. He's not striking guys out as much anymore. anymore and put those balls in play with the shift rules I don't think you'll have a 3-6-8 year array this year no I don't think so either we were wondering on the closer episode what they might do in Texas with that 9th inning situation they did add Ian Kennedy to the mix

do you think there's anything left in the tank with him I don't think he showed up on my I forgot about him a little bit because last year he was bad. He was bad. 536 ERA, 157 whip. It was ugly. 97.5 stuff plus. I don't...

I have my personal theories about that. We did talk about it. I kind of like Joe Barlow behind Jose Leclerc. But I don't think Kennedy is going to move the needle on that. They did just sign Jacob Barnes,

which I was excited about. He has great stuff, but Jacob Barnes also has... It's going to be bad command, isn't it? Well, also 50, 60 innings over the last two seasons yeah so bad command and uh and fair amount of injury but a good amount of stuff and you know what these are the types of guys that pop up all the time you know great stuff uh you know feels great for one season has has the good command, and

is the reason why you normally don't sign pop-up relievers to two or three-year deals. Yeah. I think just given his age, Kennedy more of a depth option for the Rangers than a prominent late-inning solution for them. Nelson Cruz

ended up in San Diego. That happened like three weeks ago, but I don't think we talked about it. It was a one-year, $1 million deal to me. This is a bit like the, the Albert Pujols game. They signed up for 1 million, 1 million. Whoa.

But to me, it's like the Pujols thing last year where it's kind of like, he's just the last hitter on the roster. And it's, if he, if he surprises, he can play more. And if he doesn't,

he's got a very kind of almost like a player manager. Yeah, everyone loves him. And he's talking to them about what the pitcher is about to do and helping them suss it out. So I guess then Matt Carpenter is the starter at DH. I mean, the contract tells us something a little bit, doesn't it? It doesn't say to us that Nelson Cruz is here to be the starting DH, I don't think.

It's the last guy on the bench, and if they need that spot, they let him go. Carpenter got two years and 12 million. Right. Carpenter is the starter at DH, and Nelson Cruz is going to be smiling, keeping everybody happy. That works. They have so many guys that aren't going to take many

days off that they can actually, they're one of the few teams that can get away with two primary DHs on the roster. You really can't do that with most rosters. You're right. They actually have starters. There are not a lot of platoon situations. You're not mucking around with Xander Bogarts.

Manny's in if he's healthy. Kim is such a high-end utility guy that even if you play matt carpenter at first and and play and float kim a little bit more and croner worth at second uh that's fine then you've got a high-end utility guy that's floating around that's still you still have the ability to uh have two dhs is true last signing roberto perez joins the giants catcher mix this probably means gary sanchez the dream dies to death yep oh man i don't know uh i don't know who wins out there i guess what this is is a vote of confidence for joey bart who showed up on that breakout catcher list

and did make some improvements last year. He's a righty just like Joey Bart, so it's not like you're going to do some sort of platoon situation. I would say that going with Roberto Perez is a vote of confidence for Joey Bart. You said catcher list, I think, there a second ago, which made me think of pitcher list, which reminded me there a second ago, which made me think of Pitcher List, which reminded me of PitchCon,

which just happened this past weekend. Shout out to Nick Pollack and the Pitcher List team for putting together a great event and raising over $10,000 for ALS Research. Really a tremendous job all around. That's always a fun thing to do this time of year is to jump online and catch up with friends and watch a lot of panels.

I know if you didn't get a chance to see those, I think they usually upload those to YouTube a little while after the event, so you'll be able to catch up with friends and watch a lot of panels. And I know if you didn't get a chance to see those, I think they usually upload those to YouTube a little while after the event. So you'll be able to catch up on some content from that as well. But yeah, shout out to Nick for putting all of that together. A little bit of a nerdy thing happened. I was watching Alex Chamberlain's great presentation

about making a more predictive FIP and doing that by substituting some stat cast variables for, you know, FIP has traditionally just strikeouts, walks, and homers. But if you can kind of attack that homer variable by using some stack cast variables, then you can actually make it more predictive than actual FIP. So he's created something called predictive FIP. And I thought would be really interesting is to use that as maybe some part of the cornerstone of our projections that we're working on with Jordan Rosenblum

that have pitching plus in them, because pitching plus would is a very natural thing where you can use stuff plus to, to basically instead of K percentage, right? So you're, you're kind of moving stuff plus into the k percentage thing you're using location plus into the walks and you're using some uh you're using

some stack cast uh batter ball data instead of homers so you're still using kind of the fip framework but you're kind of trying to be more precise with the with the dials inside uh so alex said he'd be fine with giving me those that predictive FIP coefficients that he's got. That may end up being a big part of our projections going forward.

PFIP. Is that what we're going to call it? It's going to be PFIP? I think that's a good way. I've got to watch that one once it's available. I'm going to have a name for our printing projections. Although I think Jordan's going to be naming it. It's his baby, but maybe I can make some ideas. I did just name a beer that I'm going to debut on opening day in New York, baby.

Hey, that sounds good. New York, circle that, especially Mets fans. I think the Yankees might be home, but Mets fans, New York, I'm going to be there. It's going to be something fun happening opening day. Very cool. Can't announce it yet, though. Too early? Yeah, we've got to get the details

100%. Fair enough. All right. Well, hey, we got that to look forward to. At least other people do. I will be home. I will not be out at that point in time, but I'm glad other people can go check that out. I'll bring you one home. I appreciate that. We are going to go on our way out at that point in time, but I'm glad other people can go check that out. I'll bring you one home. I appreciate that.

We are going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for just $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. Great time to get in, of course, with fantasy baseball season. I think it kind of started already, even though it's not the start of it for everyone.

So get in, get all the great draft kit content that we're going to roll out. Football dragging on with that 17th week. We're in the lull before the Super Bowl, so this is a great time to get in if you just tuned in for the first time in a while. And if you're not a subscriber but you want the fantasy content, there is a fantasy magazine that just hit shelves. I don't know where. magazine that just hit shelves. I don't know where.

I don't know if it's just specific stores or where exactly it's out there, but keep an eye out for it. I would bet Barnes & Noble. We've done publishing deals with them in the past where books done by us are in Barnes & Noble. I would bet it's at Barnes & Noble. There you go.

Got some options out there. On Twitter, enos at enoseresis i am at derek van riper email rates and barrels at theathletic.com if you've got questions for a future episode the position previews roll on this week thanks for listening Thank you.