Rates & Barrels - Mason Miller Week and Streamable Pitchers

Episode Date: April 21, 2023

DVR and Al discuss how much to bid on Mason Miller and when to start anticipating the major league debuts of Brandon Pfaadt and Tanner Bibee. They also look at several hitters benefitting from expanded roles and assess the pool of streamable pitchers for the coming week. Rundown 0:31 It’s Mason Miller Week 6:05 Other pitching prospects to consider 14:20 News items: Bryce Harper/Max Scherzer/Mookie Betts 19:44 Lineup matters 30:20 Notable pitchers to target 39:48 Streamers/Two-start pitchers 53;50 Bullpen update Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night kids. Good night mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at best western Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, April 21st. Derek Van Ryper here with Al Melchior, taking a look at all the big news, the call-ups, promotions, injuries, all the things that we want to know going into the weekend as we prepare to make pickups in weekly leagues on Sunday evening.

This, of course, has been Mason Miller Week. And I saw Rob DiPietro had a tweet that went out on Thursday pointing out that nobody, absolutely nobody in the NFBC Draft Champions Contest, which is a 50-round drafts, nobody has Mason Miller on any rosters, which gives you an idea of how far off the radar he truly was. And here we are in the back half of April talking about him as one of the more exciting pitchers to get called up. And we were looking at tons of prospect pitchers. Taj Bradley was on some of those rosters. Andrew Painter was on a bunch of those rosters. I mean, Andrew Painter was being drafted in non-draft champions leagues. Kyle Harrison was being drafted in those leagues. Ricky Tiedemann was being drafted in those leagues. Part of the reason Mason Miller wasn't part of that conversation is because he's pitched so little due to injuries during his time in the A's system.

Now, the question we have going into a weekend like this is, through all the hype, having seen the debut, seeing the stuff, match what it was in the minor leagues with big velocity on the fastball, pretty good cutter and slider combo. How much do you want to bid in fab leagues on Mason Miller? Is the results of the bidding on Taj Bradley in leagues where he was available last weekend, is that kind of instructive as to where the ceiling might be, where some of the winning bids may end up going for Miller? I'm assuming that it will. And so in some cases that might mean a 20% plus bid. Cause I saw that in some leagues for Taj Bradley. I now that was NFBC 15 team leagues. I got him in a midweek fab in a, in my 12 team league. I got him for $8. I have no idea what the other bids were. but I figured that's probably about what it would take to get him in a 12-teamer, and it did. So yeah, I think I would start from

there. And yeah, the deeper league, keep going up. I saw 20% bids, greater than 20% bids in each of the leagues I have that ran overnight Thursday into Friday. One of those is a 16-team keeper league that you and I play in. One of those is a 12-team AL-only keeper league. The twist in that one is that players picked up off the wire in season cannot be kept for the future. So that was just bidding for the rest of this season, and he has to go back in the pool for draft day for 2024, just the rules of that particular league. But even there, the belief was compared to the field in a 12-team AL only league, Mason Miller's innings will be much more valuable than so many of the other pitchers that we're going to have coming up into the pool.

You know what I talked about a little bit earlier in the week? When you look at Mason Miller's college workload, he did have a season where he got over 90 innings his final year of college. I think he threw some innings for the A's, just a handful of innings once he got drafted that same year. So if you want to use that as a relative target or kind of a baseline of the range, you're probably looking at something between 90 and maybe 120 or 125 innings for Miller this season before the A's would want to carefully go ahead and shut him down, given the injury history, the shoulder stuff that he's dealt with. Considering that he's already thrown a handful

of those innings, you're talking eight, 13, 13 innings already in the books for this season. You're probably sitting at 75 to 100 innings as your most realistic window of what's left. But my argument would be if you trust him from a skills perspective, and I do, argument would be if you trust him from a skills perspective and i do it still could be a big bid that's worth utilizing because that's a lot of innings compared to what you're going to get from guys later right if you push the calendar to june and similarly impactful pitchers emerge they will be capped at a similar workload either because of the time of year that it is, the simple number of starts that are left on the schedule, or they'll even have workload restrictions of their own. So this is not an uncommon problem. Sometimes I think it gets a little bit overblown. We see this

during draft season too. Oh, he's only going to throw 130, 140 innings. I can't draft him at this price. It's a huge part of the analysis, but I've started to think that maybe we collectively overcorrect for these issues. Instead of managing our team and saying, I'm worried about the next month, two months, three months, I'm not worried about August right now. Let me just get to August with a good team, and I think Mason Miller helps me get there. Do you think that's the right sort of mindset to go into these sort of pickups with not worrying so much about when the end point is going to be, but just analyzing how good the next couple of months could be? Yeah. And I think that's exactly the approach to take. And yeah, if you're looking at somebody who can at least help you get to August, who knows who else you

pick up along the way, who knows what kinds of streaming opportunities there are where, you know, very cheaply from week to week, you can get good performances so you know be one thing if i mean i can't think of the the situation where this would be a thing that would actually happen but you know if you had somebody who was only gonna be up for a month or something that would be one thing but if you're talking about somebody who's going to get you past the all-star break uh potentially as a uh a fixture in your rotation. I think you treat that pitcher pretty much the same as you would somebody that you would expect to pitch you through the end of the season. Yeah, well stated. So I'm in on Mason Miller where available, and no,

I was not in on Mason Miller throughout the winter either. I was not expecting a huge volume of innings from him. I didn't know how quickly he was going to move, but it doesn't take long to see just how talented this guy is now that we've got some stat cast numbers on him and we have the minor league versions of that from his time in Las Vegas. It's probably going to be a wave of prospects over these next few weeks that come up though, Al, and Brandon Fott seems like he's closer than ever to joining the D-backs rotation. Based on what's being reported right now, Tommy Henry is going to get the first opportunity to slot into Madison Bumgarner's spot.

Bumgarner has been designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. So we'll have to see if any other team is willing to eventually add him to their rotation mix. It would be after, of course, he clears waivers and becomes a free agent because no one's going to pick him up at full price. or C clears waivers and becomes a free agent because no one's going to pick him up at full price. But for now, Tommy Henry getting this chance, Fott probably stashed in most mixed leagues. I would say if he is available this weekend, even if he's not scheduled to pitch for Arizona during the upcoming week, it would be now or never to go ahead and add him at a reasonable fab sort of price. Once he gets that promotion, you're going to be looking at Fott in a similar light to what we're looking at cost-wise on guys like Bradley and Miller, because there's a bigger track record there. Brandon Fott shouldn't have any workload restrictions based on how much he threw in the

minors. And that was a big part of his appeal throughout draft season compared to many of the other pitching prospects that I mentioned a bit earlier. Yeah, I agree that you have to approach it as if it's going to be now or never. I don't know if that will literally be the case in some of the shallower leagues, but I just think you're probably going to save yourself a little bit of fab. Not that I expect thought to go cheaply this week, because I think that what you and I are saying

is probably is becoming conventional wisdom, but I think it'll be even more inflated if you wait another week or however long after that before we know that he's he's coming up for the diamond back so yeah now now's the time to grab him where you can just about everywhere yeah it's going to be pricey like you said it's not going to be uh sneak it through for a couple bucks sort of situation for fought he's not a secret people have been waiting on him he's been rostered in leagues and cut in a few where people couldn't afford to wait because of other things happening on their roster, but I have

to think they're going to make that move. Part of the reason, if you were going all in for this season and you're willing to eat the cost remaining on Bumgarner's contract, it's because you believe you can be a playoff team and that means you're going to play the absolute best options you have at your disposal. One thing I noticed about the schedule for the Diamondbacks, they go to Colorado at the end of next week.

So if they decide to split the week, if Tommy Henry does make the start on Monday, which I believe is against the Royals, and then they call it Brandon Fott after that, once they have the schedule lined up the way they want, the debut would be against the Rockies at Coors. And yeah, I'm not throwing Brandon Fott in that situation, sight unseen. That seems extremely risky. So if you are picking him up this week and news changes between now and Sunday as far as when they're going to bring him up, you may not want to use him that first week he's on your roster anyway.

So just be sure to plan for that if you're in the business of picking up Brandon Fott here over the course of the weekend. Other pitching prospects to consider, though, probably more widely available. Tanner Bivey in the Guardians organization last pitched on April 19th for Toledo. So that would put him on regular rest to make a home start on April 24th against the Rockies. What we've been keeping an eye on, though, are the other Guardians starters. So as of right now, as of Friday afternoon, it looks like Connor Pilkington, who I'd seen in the projected starters grid over at Roto-Wire, he was lined up to go on Monday,

but right now he's listed to start on Friday at AAA Columbus. So if he takes that start Friday night for Columbus, he would not be able to start Monday for the Guardians, which would leave the door open for one of Bybee or potentially Logan Allen or Tukey Toussaint to get that start. But it seems like Tanner Bybee is that next guy in this group of pitching prospects that we could see. And once he comes up, he might be up for good because it seems like they're making some changes in Cleveland with Hunter Gaddis recently getting optioned back to AAA as well. Yeah, at this point, I'd be surprised if it wasn't Tanner Bybee. Yeah, at this point, I'd be surprised if it wasn't Tanner Bybee. And the reason I did not include him in the waiver column this weekend is because 24 hours ago when I was finishing that one up, it looked a lot more uncertain. I wasn't aware that Pilkington was going to be the starter. And again, maybe he'll be pulled before that game is played for AAA Columbus. But I figured, like you did, that he was probably the one that was going to get the call just because he's already on the 40-man roster. But with the other candidates that you mentioned, like Logan Allen or Toussaint, and for Toussaint, it would probably be more like an opener type situation because he's actually been pitching out of the bullpen, but in long relief.

But none of those pitchers are on the 40-man roster either. So I don't see any reason at this point why it wouldn't be Bybee. Yeah, so I'm excited about that. And, of course, they have more pitching prospects. Daniel Spino hurt right now, so it's not going to be him for a few months. We could see him maybe by the end of this season, health permitting. Gavin Williams currently at AA.

I think their decision to start Gavin Williams at AA this season is an indicator that they think Bybee is going to be ready a little bit sooner. But plenty of options for the Guardians as per usual. And probably at that point now, we're going to start to see some of those higher-end options as opposed to those up-and-down guys like Connor Pilkington. Gavin Stone could get an opportunity for the Dodgers soon. They also have the opportunity to bring Tony Gonsolin back from the IL, maybe use him for shorter stints initially and kind of stretch him out instead of sending him on a longer rehab assignment.

But Michael Grove to the IL is what's opening up the spot for the Dodgers. Evan Stone has not been dominant so far at AAA. It's only been four starts, 15 innings in total, 12 Ks in those 15 innings. He was really good during his brief taste of that level a season ago, posted great numbers pretty much everywhere he's pitched previously, though. I don't think I'm looking at what Gavin Stone's doing at Oklahoma City right now in lowering expectations for him. He strikes me as the kind of guy that could be a really impactful pitcher for us, too, if the Dodgers do, in fact, give him this opportunity to step in for growth.

Yeah, my concern is that even if Stone does get the call, how long is he going to be up for? Because whether Gonsolin comes back now or a little bit later, I don't think there's long-term job security right now. But for that reason, I would keep bids limited to deeper leagues and keep them very low. But we'll see later on in the season if there's a better opportunity. I'd be a lot more interested. Yeah, definitely a watch list guy for me, but I'm very interested if he gets the chance

because I think the arsenal is really good. Looks very polished too. And a polished Dodgers pitching prospect is usually a very good Dodgers pitching prospect. Let's go a little further back for this last one. Matthew Libertor pitching well at AAA. 30Ks against eight walks in 22 and two-thirds innings so far with Memphis. Reports that the velocity is up as well.

We've seen Libertor in the big leagues before. It didn't go particularly well the first time around. When you look at the 2022 body of work, it was an ERA near six, a whip at 1.73. When you look at the 2022 body of work, it was an ERA near 6, a whip at 1.73. But this is a guy that's still pretty young, just 23 years old, a former first rounder of the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, a big part of that trade that sent Randy Rosarena to Tampa Bay, if memory serves me right. I think Matthew Libertor can still be a very good big league pitcher. I don't know if I have quite the same ceiling expectations for him as I did a few years ago. But if the floor is mid-rotation guy with strikeouts, that plays, especially in a year where we're losing a lot of pitchers to injury again.

Yeah, and I would assume that he would be the next starter up for the Cardinals. And Jake Woodford hasn't really pitched very well. So I think that this is a good call. I think we could see Lieberthor sooner rather than later. I'm not really sure at this point what the Cardinals will be waiting for. No, I don't know what they're waiting for either. So that one looks like it's already kind of lined up and ready to go. I think the only question here would be timing and when he pitched last.

Looking at the schedule, he pitched April 18th, and it was a 6K performance, 5-2. Lots of innings so far. 22-2 innings, going at least five in every one of his AAA starts so far. April 23rd would be the soonest that Matthew Libretto would be on regular rest again, so that's Sunday. So they could make the change pretty much whenever they decide they're done with Jake Woodford as that back end option in that rotation some other news that's important

as we think about some things that are impacting our leagues Bryce Harper could actually return to the Phillies in two weeks now I don't think there are any leagues out there where Bryce Harper is on the wire if there's some shallow leagues where he is, of course, go pick him up. But more importantly, with this quicker-than-expected return, you may have someone in your league getting Harper back who has an extra hitter available at their disposal. So this is more of just a heads-up that as Harper does, in fact, get activated here at some point in the next few weeks, be sure to work the trade angle as best you can

because an extra hitter there could be a good thing for you if you're looking for some offense. I just want to put that in the notes because it's a pretty big deal to have Harper back this quickly after having surgery, reconstructive elbow surgery in late November. The possibility of an early May return is now on the table. Max Scherzer will not appeal the 10-game suspension he received this week, which leaves the door open for a couple of spot starts in the Mets rotation. We're going to talk about a few of their options in just a few minutes. Just kind of a heads up if you have Scherzer that you need to go ahead and make some other plans for next week. And then we've got Mookie Betts playing shortstop, Al, which is really exciting. Just played a few innings there on Thursday night.

Replaced, I believe, Luke Williams off the bench, made a really nice double play, and looked like he'd been playing shortstop forever while doing it. It's amazing. I mean, Mookie Betts, we've seen him play second, we've seen him play center, we've seen him play right. If you watch him play, it's not surprising that he could go play some shortstop and maybe even be good at it. He could at least be passable. And I think if this continues, it creates an opportunity in the outfield for more playing time, which is fine. I think the Dodgers can either find guys within the organization that they like out there, or it's easier to go out and trade for an outfielder from somebody else. Plenty of outfielders around the league that you

can trade for. Regular short stops, not so much. So aside from the benefit of having Mookie Betts and having more positional flexibility, if he hits the in-game or in-season number of games played to qualify there, this seems like it could open up time for one of the depth outfielders for the Dodgers. So do you see anybody that you really like playing more in the outfield as a result of Betts maybe seeing some more time at short. It makes me a little bit interested in Jason Hayward. And, you know, it really puts some perspective on discussions that we had two, three weeks ago wondering, where are these all outfielders going to play for the Dodgers? And now we're thinking about, okay, are they going to go out and get another outfielder?

But even so, I think that it certainly gives me a lot more confidence that James Altman's going to play close to every day. And then Hayward maybe play enough to be viable in 15-team leagues. And I mean, it's such a small sample at this point because he's not playing every day. But Hayward so far has been hitting the ball hard, harder than he has in years.

So I don't know what the Dodgers do. They work their magic with players that they get from other organizations, and maybe this is yet another one. And also I wonder, too, maybe with Luke Williams. I mean, there's somebody this sort of – I'm sure I remembered at the time, DVR, but in the offseason brain reboot or whatever, I forgot about that. Luke Williams stole 11 bases with the Marlins last year and sort of limited play.

forgot about that Luke Williams stole 11 bases with the Marlins last year and sort of limited play so you know I have to wonder too if he's the next uh you know Chris Taylor Max Muncy that uh you know gets gets the Dodger magic yeah it would have to be a pretty significant swing change for Luke Williams because when you look back through his minor league numbers. He has rarely at any stop, even brief stop, been able to slug 400. He's usually a low OBP sort of player. Strikes out kind of a lot overall at different stops. We've seen some bumps there. For a guy that doesn't hit the ball hard, he strikes out a lot. He does have that speed, though, and cheap speed is hard to find.

I'm curious to see if the Dodgers did in fact change something about him. The brief time he was at AAA, and yes, it was a PCL affiliate, so take it with the appropriate block of salt. This was one of the best versions of Luke Williams we've seen. 375, 455, 696, a 10% walk rate, only a 15% K rate. I'd like to actually dig into some hard hit data to see if he was actually making better quality of contact because in the brief times he's been in the big leagues, which spans about 140 games, but only about 250 plate appearances. Luke Williams has a 1.8% barrel rate and a 23.8% hard hit rate. So it wasn't just that he wasn't lifting the ball. It was that he also wasn't

hitting it hard. If that has changed, okay. This is an opportunity that could stretch beyond monoleagues. For now, it's more of a monoleague sort of play, just trying to see if he collects some of that playing time shortstop. I would imagine that Betts, at least in the short term, still moves a little bit back and forth. Maybe they wait and see what happens with Miguel Rojas. Once Rojas is healthy again,

they could use Rojas in some instances, play Betts there sometimes. I love this from a let's just see what happens perspective. And I think you're right. I think Jason Hayward's the guy that probably gets a little more run in the outfield in the short term. And if he's unlocked something, hey, there have been players with worse starting tools than Hayward that the Dodgers have been able to get a lot of mileage out of. So maybe we'll see a bit of a career renaissance for him at age 33. It is amazing to see how much hard contact Hayward has made in the early going. We'll see if it can

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that have really opened our eyes to some players for this week. Jaron Duran starting regularly for the Red Sox, and there are not many lefties on their schedule in the next few weeks. So do you have any reason to be optimistic that things could be different for Jaron Duran this time around in Boston? Not a particular reason, only that this is somebody I was really excited about a year ago, that this is somebody I was really excited about a year ago, and I probably faded him too hard in drafts and even on the waiver so far based on last year's experience. So he's not had so many tries in the major leagues that we should give up on him. Still somebody that could produce some speed with a little bit of power, not hurt you in batting average. That potential, I think, is still there.

Yeah, I think with Duran, it's a little bit like the opportunities that Josh Lowe has previously had at the big league level. You look at the underlying numbers, it's worth taking a chance on, at least in 15-team leagues with the schedule. I think Duran's good enough to be your last outfielder temporarily with the Red Sox seeing so many righties because there's some power, because there's some speed. I think my interest in Durant goes all the way back to the alternate site year when he apparently made some pretty big swing changes and looked really good in those in-house mashups that teams were having back at that time. here are going to be getting that K rate down or getting that walk rate up. One or both of those things would be good. But compared to Luke Williams, who we were just talking about, we've at least seen a 7.2% barrel rate from Duran when he's been up and down with the Red Sox. We've seen a 39.4% hard hit rate. So if he's able to lift the ball a little bit more often, he can get to that power on a more regular basis. We know he's got some speed. We've seen him using that before. He's actually 10 for 12

as a base stealer over 352 plate appearances in the big leagues too. So you're talking about 15 to 20 steal speed in a regular role over a full season with non-zero power. I do think you're right to point out the possible downside in batting average, but maybe just maybe there's enough here in the tank for Duran to actually do a little bit of damage for deeper leagues. It seems like this whole section is guys who used to be prospects. They weren't necessarily elite prospects, but they were certainly on lists a few years back. Pavin Smith getting run as a big side platoon DH in Arizona. So what kind of interest do you have in Smith? Is it still just 15 team leagues and deeper? For now it is. I mean, just based on the playing time pattern alone that I think the upside is him playing close to every day against

righties. So just based on that alone, I don't think that he really qualifies for 12 teamers, but for 15 team leagues, yeah. With how he's hit so far and this very limited chance that he's had to, to be a semi-regular for the diamond backs. I'm I'm back in on, on Pavin Smith. I think it's gotta be a deeper league, but he's flashed intriguing skills at times. It's just been a matter of putting it together for long enough to carve out

that opportunity. Former seventh overall pick a 6.9% career barrel rate. That is up right now. The thing I've always liked about Pavin Smith, he doesn't chase pitches outside the zone. That seems like a profile that he's had throughout his time in the minor leagues as well. Just controls the strike zone well. If he can start to do a little more damage, that would go a long way towards opening up even more playing time for him. I did see Ahmed Rosario, who was banged up with a back injury this week. He's actually back in the lineup on Friday for the Guardians, so it looks like the possibility of Brian Rocchio getting some time, that might be dwindling. We'll see if Rocchio even stays on the

roster. It was Gabriel Arias getting those opportunities earlier in the week for the Guardians, so nothing actionable there. More of just a heads up because Rocio would have been on the radar if Rosario had to go on the IL. Jake Berger is getting a regular run. He's been discussed on this show over the course of this week. And the main thing for me with Berger is just looking at when Yohan Mankata is expected to come back from his back injury. As of this afternoon, he has not started a rehab assignment yet. So some question as to when exactly that that's going to happen and the other part of the equation is whether or not the white socks are going to carve out more playing time for burger elsewhere either giving guys rest in the first base and dh mix or finding something else that works because he has been hitting when called

upon for the white socks yeah uh i put a bit on him in uh your league dvr it wasn't enough and i i probably didn't go aggressive enough because i look at moncada coming back and i think where where is the playing time so on the one hand you look at what burger has done recently and you think how can you possibly take his bat out of the lineup but it there's there's no path that i can see so it's going to be one of these situations where either somebody's playing time situation is going to have to change unexpectedly, whether it's maybe Mokata not being a true everyday third baseman or rotating the outfielders.

I'm not sure how the White Sox would do it, but it's hard for me to see them completely shutting down Berger's playing time. He's been one of their best hitters. Yeah, I think this was pointed out by one of my followers on Twitter. The numbers for Jake Berger to this point in his career are actually quite a bit better against lefties than against righties. So that would potentially steer him into a smaller role

if they're going to mix and match, right? If they're going to find someone else in this lineup to take a seat against lefties, play him in those spots, and then not let him see same-handed pitching as often, he becomes a tougher player to use. A 184 career WRC plus against lefties to 106 against righties.

This comes with a 30% K rate in both splits, but a sub 5% walk rate so far for Berger against righties. So if you say, well, why isn't he a regular? That's the problem that he has righty. So if you say, well, why isn't he a regular? Well, that's, that's the problem that he has to overcome. If it goes right, maybe you're talking about something similar to what Patrick wisdom has been doing for the Cubs. I think the thing that surprises me so much about wisdom is that he entered

2021, came in, shuttle that power, did it with a 40% K rate and has continued to play enough to actually get better and lower that K rate. That's the outcome I didn't expect, that he'd keep getting those opportunities and he's taken advantage of that. Berger, at least, doesn't start with that 40% K rate, so it's just a matter of how much

the White Sox want to prioritize him. For now, he's just more of a placeholder in 15 team leagues, maybe some 12s as well, given the difficulty of finding quality options on the wire at the third base position. I want to ask you about Luis Garcia. He's back healthy again after dealing with a hamstring injury. We're talking about the Nats infielder, Luis Garcia, since there are three Luis Garcias in the big leagues right now. I think it's three.

Big strikeout rate improvements early on. And Luis Garcia has always been very, very young for the level going through the national system. He is showing a little bit of stat class growth early on this season, Al. And he's what I would call an occasional barreler. Probably never going to be the guy that's going to barrel the ball 10, 12% of the time, but is not in the 4% range and under either. He's not that dreaded, never barrels the ball type player. Getting tons of opportunities for the Nats.

type player, getting tons of opportunities for the Nats. Kind of part of that double play combo with C.J. Abrams for the foreseeable future. Is Luis Garcia in D.C. someone you're actually going to bet on in deeper leagues as a player that could simply get better because they just keep throwing him out there? Yeah, I think that Garcia could. And you talk about the barrel rate, and I'm always very encouraged to just see a hitter that can get to that like six percent threshold roughly when they play in a park like Nationals Park or Great American Ball Park, Citizens Bank Park, because it doesn't necessarily take a lot. We've seen players in those organizations make a lot out of sort of a middling level of raw power. And I think

that Garcia is already there. He just needs to raise the launch angle a little bit. And we've seen some players make that transition. And especially with the frequency of contact that Garcia makes, I feel like that's just the one missing piece for him. Yeah, and I think the thing that I've brought up before in conversations about Luis Garcia is he's bigger than you'd expect based on his profile.

Physically, he's a larger human than I would have expected for someone who was young for the level playing shortstop. He's listed at 6'2", 212 pounds. That seems like a guy that's strong enough to keep hitting the ball hard and actually kind of reach these new sort of levels. that's strong enough to keep hitting the ball hard and actually kind of reach these new sort of levels. We did see some runs at AAA, both in 2021 and in 2022, where the power jumped a lot. 13 homers in 37 games back in 2021,

eight more homers in 45 games at that level last year. So you're talking 21 homers in a combined 82 games, about a half season at that level, doing that with good batting averages too. I just think he's a player people could sleep on a little bit. The other underlying improvement we're seeing right now from Luis Garcia, a 31.5% O-swing percentage. It's not elite, but it's a big step forward for a guy who's been right around 40%

during his previous runs in the big leagues. So I'm warming up to the idea that if you're looking for some help in the middle infield and Luis Garcia's on the wire, he's actually going to help you in a decent number of leagues. Maybe a little bit of speed there too. Hasn't been great in terms of success rate in his brief time in the big leagues so far. He's 4 for 12 as a base stealer. But if you can iron out that aspect of his game, that's just gravy on top.

I think it's more of an average counting stat sort of play with a bit of power sneaky power from a guy that will probably do more damage as the weather continues to heat up in dc to nationals park starts to play really hitter friendly once you get to the warm summer months one more infielder to throw out there ezekiel duran seeing a uptick in playing time with the cory seager absence he just needs to do something with it and quickly. He's going to see an increased role. Lots of tools here, but a 231, 268, 349 line so far in 250 career big league plate appearances. I think Duran's more of a deep, deep keeper in dynasty league sort of stash. The guy you pick up for a buck and just see what happens. I don't know if there's much value in typical redraft leagues right now. No, probably not. I would say something similar for him that I said about the other Duran, which is that

it's not too late to bank on those minor league numbers, meaning something. But yeah, he's been more frustrating than Jaron Duran, actually, because he's just really, like you said, that slash line, not very good, not much of the power or speed that we've seen from him plenty in the minors. So yeah, like you said, he's got a fairly short window to make that transition, but I wouldn't count it out. Let's move on to some pitching. Kyle Bradish back from the IL, and he was on some sleeper lists.

I know Eno really liked him. This is a guy that made some adjustments late last season. And I think we've talked about this throughout the year already. Camden Yards being so much more pitcher-friendly last year with those adjustments just makes it a lot easier to take some chances in this ballpark. Bradish seems like he's ticking a lot of boxes right now to the point where if you're in a league with 12 or fewer teams, you might be thinking about picking him up. And I think it could be a good idea. I think the skills here are actually pretty solid. We're seeing some improvement very early.

We're only talking about two outings with the K rate being up and the walk rate being down. It's still getting lots of swinging strikes as well. And we've seen Bradish do this before, flashes of being really effective at AAA in a brief time there in 2022. It's a lot of small samples, but I think when you take a look at what the Orioles are doing overall,

this is a profile that you can believe in. Yeah, and I do. I was really encouraged by that start by Bradish coming off of the IL, although it was against the Nationals. And so as we just come off of talking about Luis Garcia, that's a concern that I have is I just don't think that that lineup is very good. So on the flip side of that for Braddish, it's maybe a reason not to overdo it in terms of putting stock in that first start back.

But he does line up for a two-step this coming week. So I don't know that he's somebody that I would keep on my roster in 12-teamers. And I like Bradish. I mean, I targeted him in a lot of leagues, but they tended to be the deeper leagues. But in a 12-teamer, I like him probably more than the other likely available two-start options. And he's got the Red Sox and Tigers. And yes, it's a seven-game schedule for the Orioles, so Dean Kramer gets the Monday start.

So if there's a postponement or something like that, then obviously Kramer's the safer bet. But Bradish is just, I think, the better pitcher of the two, so I would take my chances that he's going to get that second start at Detroit next Sunday. That's a pretty nice combination there. Yeah, and I think the other thing with Bradish, if you've listened to Eno recently talk about what he's been doing

in the pitching model, two above-average breaking balls, which can be a huge recipe for success. Just having two pitches like that can go a very long way towards unlocking another level. So I'm in on Kyle Bradish. I think it's a two-star week. Even in a shallow league, I'm fine taking the risk against the Red Sox to get the huge potential payoff against the Tigers as well.

I think the skills are good enough with Braddish where you're not taking on as much risk as it might seem. I know you wrote a lot about the Pirates in the waiver column this week and Johan Oviedo getting a lot of attention. I think Nick Grok had a piece about him on The Athletic as well. Oviedo, kind of like Braddish, looks like he's starting to pitch his way into some more shallow league consideration. Pirates off to a nice start as a team so far. I mean, I think that's probably a little bit flimsy overall, but there are some legitimate success stories on this roster right now that I think can be very impactful from a fantasy perspective. I know I saw an exchange back during draft season too from some folks on Twitter. Someone that was just mentioning when we were talking about Luis Ortiz in this Pirates organization that Oviedo made some tweaks at the end of last season and pitched really well in September.

And this has really kind of been an extension of what Oviedo did at the end of last year so far. 222 ERA, 115 whip, and just over a strikeout per inning so far. far. 222 ERA, 115 WIB, and just over a strikeout per inning so far. Yeah. And I remember writing about him back in draft prep season. And the thing I was concerned about was the walk rate. He's not made tremendous improvement there. And again, I don't want to put too much stock in anything after most pitchers making three or four starts. But what he has done has been really encouraging. The strikeout potential has been there all along. It's a good park to pitch in. He is getting a surprising amount of run support.

And I think it's the point now where Oviedo is a legit target in 12-teamers. And I mean, he's been already in terms of head-to-head because he's got the RP eligibility. And so he's a nice spark to slide into that RP slot in that format. But at this point, I think 12-team Roto Leagues, he's a good target as any this weekend. Yeah, I'm right there with you. I think as far as holding him on the roster, I'm willing to wait through a bad start on the schedule or two if I need to avoid it, but he's a little more of a pickup and hold than a pickup for streaming purposes for me.

I think this is all good. Part of that's the home park too. It's a place where I feel generally pretty good about streaming pitchers if I believe in the skills. Another guy that's making, I think, a move towards some smaller league considerations in the short term, Matt Strom. I think, a move towards some short-term or some short, some smaller league considerations in the short term. Matt Strom, I think he deserves another mention, pitched really well again against the Rockies on Thursday, at least in terms of racking up strikeouts. I got to see some of that start. It looked good. I mean, it was 11 Ks over five into third innings, give up three runs. Really, one bad pitch to CJ Krohn was most of the damage. It was a two-run homer that he gave

up in the first inning of that start strom's up to a 27 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio now on the season the era sitting at an even three the whip is below one and these are all good things and most importantly look at the pitch count column 82 pitches a season high in that last outing on thursday against the rockies matt str Strom is being used like a regular starter. This is good. This is very good. Very surprising, too. Three weeks ago, me or even probably two weeks ago, me wouldn't have believed it.

So he's racked up that pitch count pretty quickly. Been really effective. And in that same boat with Oviedo, that he's somebody who already has had some head-to-head appeal, but with the way that he's pitched and with the consistency, I would actually privilege him a little bit over Oviedo. Not by much. I mean, to me, they're pretty similarly valued, but maybe go 1% more on Strom than I would Oviedo.

I think I'm flipped on them. I like both. Part of the reason is the home park. I've always been a little bit anxious about throwing back-end starters in Philly, but Matt Strom pitching more like a mid-rotation guy, so I can see the case for it. Very similar. Bradish, Oviedo, and Strom are very similar pitchers to me,

even if they have different arsenals and completely different approaches. They're all intriguing enough to be thinking about in some of our smaller leagues, and that's a good thing because we need pitchers like that. The next guy we're going to talk about is a little trickier for me to decide on. Joey Lucchese returning to the big leagues. It'll be a Friday night start, so by the time you hear this podcast, there's a chance this start will be in the books. First big league starts undergoing Tommy John surgery back in 2021, I believe. And maybe he's one of the guys that gets a longer window

for the Mets with Scherzer missing a couple turns due to that suspension. Lucchese should have the Nats next week and the Tigers the following week. And this is a huge if, if he sticks around on regular rest. It could be Jose Budo as the kind of up and down solution to help fill in as well. But what is your interest level in Joey Lucchese coming off of Tommy John surgery? Well, I'll be very interested to see how

he does in this first start because yeah, with him coming back from Tommy John, it's really hard to know exactly what to expect. I don't hold out a lot of hope that there's going to be a long-term role for him in the rotation, but who knows? It's not unthinkable that he couldn't push aside David Peterson, perhaps. I'm kind of taking a wait-and-see approach. Those first two matchups that you mentioned, those are really, really enticing. Is your thinking that they might send Lucchese back down just to add some bullpen depth?

Because if they keep him up, then maybe I'd have some shorter-term interest. Yeah, I mean, the schedule is really good for him. I would use pitchers with less of a track record in those matchups if I had the opportunity to. Verlander, so Verlander's still hurt. Carrasco's still down too. Verlander is supposed to be throwing live batting practice Sunday and making a rehab start next Friday. So then it's another five days after that at the earliest before he'd be ready. This window,

it might not be several starts, might not be five plus starts for Joey Lucchese, but I think it's going to be an easy two or three. As you said, as guys come back, he might be a replacement for David Peterson. That's a legitimate ongoing competition. When you're dealing with so many injured pitchers, no guarantee

that they all come back and stay healthy. Someone else could get hurt. I do like Lucchese as a fallback option to the Kyle Braddish, Johan Oviedo, and Matt Strom group, but I do think the uncertainty here keeps them a notch below. The thing I do

like, Mets are a good team. City Field is a great place to pitch. Much like where Joey Lucchese started his big league career in San Diego, a great home park goes a really long way. So it could be more of a strikeouts play where the ratios are a little inflated, but I think there's enough here to make him at least a,

a low dollar sort of contingency plan with an opportunity to make at least a couple of starts potentially for the Mets. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. We'll see you next time. And it's easy to overlook a guy like Tommy Henry when there's a lot of higher, more highly regarded pitching prospects in the organization, which has absolutely been the case for the Diamondbacks. But do you really want to pick up Tommy Henry for a two-star week where if he gets the second star, it's at Coors?

I certainly don't. No, absolutely no way. There's all kinds of reasons to avoid him. There's all kinds of reasons to avoid him. One, anticipating maybe the FOT promotion. The fact that when he came up last year, the skills were not that impressive. And it hurts me to say this, DVR, because he pitched at Michigan. But yeah, I don't think that he's poised.

Sort of like I was saying with Lucchese, you don't know that he's poised to be in the rotation over the long term. You've got that course start coming up. So he's not on my radar for even the deepest leagues. One thing I was trying to do as we're talking here, if you see me on YouTube and I'm like staring off into space, I'm looking at my other screens. A lot of my information is over there. It's not that I struggle to make eye contact. I wanted to see what Tommy Henry looked like in the pitching model that Eno has last year, because we've talked about this with the prospects, Amarillo and Reno as a double-A and triple-A combo for

home parks might be the worst combination that any pitchers could have to deal with in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Plenty of guys have to deal with the PCL, plenty of guys have to deal with difficult double-A parks, but to have that combo can really skew our perceptions based on the results. Tommy Henry does not pop in the model, however, so just throwing that out there. He had a pretty big home run problem when he came up for the Diamondbacks last year. The supporting numbers point to him being a true up-and-down back-end guy rather than an impact guy, so it's only a matter of time

before Brandon Fott takes over that spot in the Arizona rotation. Edward Cabrera in some shallow leagues might be available. I think you're all in here if he is. At Atlanta is tough, but home against the Cubs, probably an easy enough second matchup to balance it out, especially since Cabrera has a pretty high ceiling just based on his skills alone. Well, I wanted to talk about Cabrera. has a pretty high ceiling just based on his skills alone.

Well, I wanted to talk about Cabrera. First of all, I was surprised at how low his roster rate is on CBS as of a couple of hours ago. It was only 61%. So that's a threshold where he likely is available in at least a lot of their 12-teamers and shallower. So that surprised me a little bit. And I don't think it's a great pair of matchups. Maybe it's not going to last, but the Cubs, at least as of a day or two ago,

ranked second in the majors in WOBA. And of course, the Braves are a fearsome lineup. So given the wildness sometimes that makes Cabrera not go deep into games, if he were out there and I was looking to stream a two-star pitcher, I probably wouldn't bite. Yeah, look at the numbers so far. 18 Ks in 17 and two-thirds innings, 16 walks, and 15 hits allowed. It's all connected.

So it's strange because someone this good having a 408 ERA, that's also surprising. And then you look at the whip at 175, you don't normally see that. Normally you see an ERA above six with a whip like that. Right. It's definitely a question like where is he really going? I think with Cabrera, I'm encouraged the last two starts. Maybe something has been better.

Maybe there's a mechanical fix in place. It's 12 Ks against three walks over his last 11 innings after he walked 13 batters in two starts against the Mets to begin the year. Also wondering, too, with those more difficult matchups against the Mets, if maybe he was just nibbling a little bit early on. Not a lot of easy matchups as you go up and down that Mets lineup.

So I don't know. It's surprising to see two starts where he was that bad with his control and then two starts where he was actually pretty good. Yeah, you don't know what you're going to get, especially with a couple of tough matchups like, like Cabrera has this week. So I suppose too, it depends maybe if you're off to a very slow start and you feel like you just need to kind of take your chances already here in an April, late April week.

But yeah, I, I tend to think that I would go, go with the safer, safer option. You may have a couple options out there in leagues where Cabrera is available. You may have Eduardo Rodriguez and or Spencer Turnbull to consider. The starts here are on the road against the Brewers and then at home against the Orioles. So do you prefer either one of Erod or Turnbull to Cabrera if you're looking at that trio? I actually do prefer Turnbull. And I know that there's some growing interest in Rodriguez.

He's coming off of a very good start. Just to give you an indication of where I've been at on him, I've kind of thought maybe he's sort of on the way down because I cut him in your 16-team league. And then he probably got picked up, I think, with a 15% bid. So clearly there's not just in that league. I know there's interest in terms of looking at most added for Rodriguez, but I have to admit, I'm still not sure that he's really back. Whereas the peripherals to me look a little bit better for Turnbull. So I would trust him with those matchups. Yeah, with Erod, maybe he's more of just a command play at this point. I think

the home park is so cavernous that I would generally want to use him at least in home starts in a two-start week like this one, as long as one starts at home and I'm not completely afraid of the matchup in the other one. He probably is in my lineup for 15 team leagues. 12s might be a little more dicey. I think I like Turnbull better long-term as well, though. If I'm looking at those two, if you said one of these guys is going to be active in your lineup on a regular basis today forward, I trust Spencer

Turnbull just a bit more than I trust Eduardo Rodriguez at this point in their respective careers. I don't know. Comparing them to Cabrera, Edward Cabrera has a much higher ceiling. I think I'd be more comfortable with Cabrera long-term than both of them. If I'm playing the matchups, I probably trust Turnbull's matchups this week more than I trust Cabrera's matchups. It'd be really hard for me to decide between Erod and Edward Cabrera, though. I think there's just as much

meltdown potential with Erod as there is for Edward Cabrera at this stage. You mentioned Dean Kramer a little bit earlier. He does line up to be a two-start pitcher this week. Home against the Red Sox, road against the Tigers. He just pitched well in an outing against the Nationals. I kind of like Dean Kramer, just like I have interest in Tyler Wells, who we talked about last week.

It's just a group of Orioles pitchers that are a bit better than they were two or three years ago. That's really sort of changed my overall approach to either picking them up temporarily or even trying to pick them up and keep them on the roster for a little while. Yeah, I would actually, if it were a decision I had to make, I would actually prefer to go with Kramer this week than Erod. But I think after the other pitchers we've talked about,

including Bradish. But yeah, that's kind of where he's at. He's a candidate to stream in two start weeks, serve on the fringes of 12 team. I would feel more comfortable with maybe 14 team. Definitely belongs in 15 teamers. So that's where I'm at with Kramer. What are you doing with Jose Suarez?

He has really struggled to begin this season. I know he was a sleeper for some coming into the year. He's home against Oakland. Fantastic matchup for the first one. And then on the road against Milwaukee. It seems like Suarez is approaching that sort of now or never cliff where he has to start pitching really well if he wants to keep a spot in the rotation.

Yeah, and yeah, that's always the question with a team like Oakland or I think the Royals are kind of in the same spot. Yeah, and yet that's always the question with a team like Oakland, or I think the Royals are kind of in the same spot, maybe the Nationals in the early going here. And for me, Suarez is still a no. There's nobody I would trust him against right now. So I feel like that's just getting a little too cute. Yeah, you look at his easiest start of the year. That came against the Nationals.

That was probably a time where people were streaming him 10, 11 11 days ago four innings four earned runs 10 hits only two k's just hasn't really been able to get anything going and then the six walk performance on the road against the yankees i don't don't think many people had him active for that but probably not it's it's really a test of how much do you want to mess with the A's when it comes to using Jose Suarez as part of this two-start week. Griffin Canning might be another guy that fits into our discussion from earlier, kind of in that Braddish-Oviedo-Strom range, where now that he's healthy again, I think the skills are actually pretty good. I think you could make a pretty strong case for Canning to be picked up in those formats.

He's gone five innings each of his first two starts, threw 100 pitches against the Yankees. I don't know if he's going to be a great starter, but I think he's going to be good enough to get some run at least in 15 team leagues, but probably even some 12s depending on his matchups. Yeah, yeah. And yeah, he's pitched well in those first two starts.

The strikeout rate is down, but at this stage in April, I'm not really looking so much at strikeout rates and walk rates. I'm putting a little bit more stock in more granular metrics like the ones in the plate discipline table on fan graphs like the chase rate, which is a metric that you've already referenced, swinging strike rate, called strike, zone contact rate. And through those first two starts, Canning looks great across the board. So I'm with you 100%.

And another pitcher that profiles similarly is doing all those kinds of things really, really well, but the results up until his last start weren't matching up with that is Nick Martinez. And then he did finally put in a good start. So that's my statistical analysis tip for the day. It's the first month or so, look at the most granular stats that you can that have meaning and canning looks great with those stats. Yeah. I like this pitch mix too. It's slider, changeup, four-seamer, curveball. It looks like four pitches. He's pretty comfortable throwing in many situations. Throws the slider and the changeup more than the four-seamer so far too.

Fastball velocity up a little bit from where it was last year, actually two years ago. We didn't see him pitch last year because of injuries, but seeing that fastball at 94.2 when it was previously at 93-5, that's a small step in the right direction as well for Griffin Canning. And the good news is he gets Oakland without getting the Brewers this time because the Angels are using that six-man

rotation, at least for the time being. You know, we mentioned Colin Ray on the show last week. He's a two-start pitcher for this week, which kind of puts him into the conversation, at least as a possible inexpensive option for 15 team leagues. Home against the Tigers looks pretty good. Home against the Angels a lot more difficult. Now that you've seen a little more from Colin Ray, is this a chance that you're willing to take, or is he more in that

Jose Suarez, too risky category where you're staying away? Not putting Ray in that category, but I'm also, I think, at best this weekend, maybe looking at him as a contingency $1 bid. Um, yeah, I, at that second start with the angels, it's just tough enough. I mean, if it was a really good, uh, two-step combination with like the, the, you know, tigers and Royals or something like that, I'd be all over it. I think that Ray passes that test

where Suarez wouldn't, but he's kind of, he that's the next step up. Uh, I'd be all over it. I think that Ray passes that test whereas Suarez wouldn't, but that's the next step up. I don't really trust him against a team with a good to great offense. This is the everything but the kitchen sink arsenal that Colin Ray has used in his first couple turns with the Brewers. Sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, curveball,

split finger. They've got him down with six different pitches so far. I'm with you. I think he'd be ahead of someone like Suarez. Suarez might not even be at the bottom of the list at all as far as your $1 bids, but I would like to put a few priority plays ahead of Colin Ray and hopefully not

have to take on that risk because I think the Angels in particular are the kind of lineup that could do a lot of damage against Colin Ray. A few guys with single starts that I think are interesting. Tyler Wells, not as easy as the Tigers matchup that we liked for him this week. He gets the Red Sox at home. I actually think I could throw him out there in a 12-team league

and not feel terrible about it. He's at least a low-dollar consideration for me. I mentioned earlier with Jose Suarez having that two-step that stops with a matchup against Oakland. Luis Cesar goes on the road to face the A's, and that's the ultimate. Would you throw that pitcher against the A's? I wouldn't. I just saw that on the schedule and kind of chuckled because I don't think I could bring myself to do it, even in the deepest of leagues.

I don't think I could do it in an NL-only league. No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't. could do it in an NL only league. No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't. And so that kind of raises the issue that would you even keep Cessa around on your roster in NL only? I probably wouldn't accept that when you're talking mono league, sometimes you really just need somebody that you know is going to get innings at least in the short term. But yeah, I wouldn't start Cessa anywhere right now. It's pretty strange because in other instances, he's been pretty solid as a reliever.

So I think he's miscast right now as a starter. If he's effective as a starter, it's probably in shorter starts, going through the lineup once or twice, then turning it over to the bullpen. So I'm not really optimistic there. Another one that's kind of got the bad ratios, but a good matchup situation.

Zach Plesak catches the Rockies at home next week. Any streaming appeal there? Just because the Rockies away from course is on a A's level for me. So I think police act is kind of right on the borderline. I would feel better throwing a dollar and fab at police act than, than I probably would at Colin Ray, I would feel better throwing a dollar and fab at, at police act than, um, that I probably would, uh,

at Conray actually just given that matchup. So interesting. Okay. Yeah. Uh, one that also makes sense in this group, a little further down our list, Vince Velasquez gets the nationals on the road.

Pirates putting some runs on the board. The nationals are a pretty nice target to stream against. Are you throwing Vince Velasquez out there this week? you can? I don't think so. I think he's not quite in the Suarez zone, but pretty darn close. All right. Let's take a look at a few bullpens here before we go. It looks like Jose Alvarado is starting to pull away with that closer role in Philadelphia. So if you made that move in the last week or so, that is starting to pay off in a very big way. It's never been a question of stuff.

It's always been a question of whether or not he would get the job to himself, and things appear to be trending at least in that general direction based on how they've used him in these last few games. I do think the Cubs might be a situation to monitor closely after Michael Fulmer had a blown save against the Dodgers on Thursday. Now that we've seen a few more weeks from the other contenders, is anybody else standing out to speculate on in this bullpen? Well, this is a tough one for me because back in spring training, the word was that it was going to be Fulmer and Boxberger sharing the job. And so based on that, you would think that that would help Boxberger.

But I think Albert Elzelay is the best reliever they've got there. So it seems like it's a question of do you want to go for saves this week and the next week, or do you want to make that speculative pick for somebody who could be a really good steady closer for a lot of the season a little bit later on. And I think Elzelie is that reliever. Yeah, I think the only thing that's working against Elzelie so far, he's made six appearances so far this season. Four of them have extended beyond recording three outs. So he seems like he's a higher leverage guy that they can get

a little more volume out of. And maybe that makes him more of a committee source of saves than someone that's going to be given sole possession of ninth inning opportunities. But the skills are off the charts good, so I like that call a lot. I think Elzele can actually help you quite a bit, even if it does happen to end up being in a committee sort of role. The Mets had Adam Adovino pick up another save against the Dodgers this week. That's his third of the season. This looks like a pretty simple committee where both Adovino and David another save against the Dodgers this week. That's his third of the season. This looks like a pretty simple committee

where both Adovino and David Robertson will continue to get saves. I know we talked about the Angels last week, Al. Jose Quijada getting another save again this week. Carlos Estevez still picking up saves. This looks like a pretty well-functioning committee right now, finishing out games for the Halos. It does. And so I think in both of those cases uh you know with uh

uh the angels and the mets uh unfortunately because of the the splitting of the role that it really limits the appeal to probably 15 teams just where you're trying to get somebody who who might give you you know maybe uh i mean if you're talking to save a week that's that's close to a full-time closer but you know maybe a couple of a save uh every a save a week, that's close to a full-time closer, but maybe a save every couple weeks. I think that's where the appeal is. So if you see that situation shift at all, it's a different story. But for right now, I don't think there's any reason to pursue Adovino outside of 15-teamers. If you saw Taylor Rodgers get a save this week, just know that came in extra innings, kind of a game flow situation.

It was Camilo Duval who picked up the win in that game. So nothing's really changed as far as Duval being, if not the sole closer, at least the player in the position to rack up the most saves right now in Gabe Kapler's bullpen. Saw a couple of injuries for the A's bullpen. Trevor May to the IL,

Danny Jimenez to the IL. The A's don't really ever win games, so I don't know if there's anybody you want to speculate on here, but in the deepest of leagues, is there anyone you are thinking about from the Oakland bullpen this weekend? Honestly, no. It's a situation I'm avoiding. I mean, I've talked, for example, about previously avoiding the Diamondbacks.

I'm sure there have been others. And this is a situation where there's even less of a case of somebody standing out enough that they would be a good bet to get those rare saves that are likely to avail themselves. Yeah, I guess if you're trying to be optimistic, a road series against the Angels probably doesn't generate more than one save opportunity, and that's really pushing it for the beginning of the week. It's a four-game series. Three games against the Reds next weekend? Okay, that could be a save opportunity and maybe two there. So the max number of opportunities in a week for the A's with that schedule,

three, more likely one or two. And if you're trying to hone in on who that closer might be i mean i see zach jackson is atop the depth chart that rotowire has i don't know if i'm really that interested in him i think this is where i would say what does eno's pitching model say perhaps the pitching model will point us to a good reliever that we are not thinking about. Based purely on stuff, Chad Smith is their best reliever if he's healthy and in the mix at any given time. And this is bad in Oakland. This is a disastrous team right now.

Jarius Familia is part of that late-inning mix as well. So I guess if the model comes through, Chad Smith is the guy. I'm talking about an absolute minimum bid if even that at this point. It's that bad in Oakland right now. And A's fans, as we say time and time again, deserve so much better. On our way out the door, a few things to note. You can still get a subscription to The Athletic for a dollar a month for the first year. You can get everything

that we have on the site, including Al's weekly waiver column, which is up for this week, so be sure to check that out. You can also give us a follow on Twitter. Al is at almelcurebb. I am at Derek Van Ryper. If you've got a question for a future episode, you can send those our way. Ratesandbarrels at gmail.com

is the best way to get those questions to us. We'll be opening up that mailbag a bit more often here in the next few weeks as we keep waiting for more and more information about what's going on in this 2023 season. It's a great time to get questions in, so we'll be sure to answer a lot of those in the next few weeks. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday.