Rates & Barrels - Max Scherzer to the Blue Jays & Late January Moves

Episode Date: January 31, 2025

Eno and DVR take a quick break from their 2025 Position Preview series to catch up on news from around the league. Max Scherzer has landed with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, Ha-seong Kim has joined the Rays, and bullpen changes are happening for several clubs with Carlos Estévez (Royals), Ryan Pressly (Cubs), and Kirby Yates (Dodgers) on the move. Rundown 2:37 Max Scherzer Signs with the Blue Jays 8:40 Grant Holmes' Current Opportunity in the Atlanta Rotation 13:11 Carlos Estévez Signs with the Royals 24:09 Ryan Pressly Traded to the Cubs 29:41 Kirby Yates Officially Joins the Dodgers 33:37 Ha-Seong Kim Signs with the Rays 41:22 Jorge Polanco Returns to the Mariners 49:30 Shinnosuke Ogasawara: Gets Two-Year Deal with Nats 50:31 Other News & Notes: Taylor Rogers & Austin Hays to the Reds, Jorge Mateo & Dylan Carlson to the O's, and Elias Díaz to the Padres Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Share your Positional Rankings in the HiveMind Ranks for Starting Pitchers: https://forms.gle/QhdU1UimnejRG1bP6 Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Head to salesforce.com slash careers to learn more. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Friday, January 31st. Derek and Rhyber Edo-Saris here with you, taking a little break from our position preview series to catch up on some late January news. We have some signings, some small trades a few shake-ups in bullpen situations Which is great because we have not had our 2025 reliever preview yet We're waiting pretty much on Kenley Jansen at this point before recording that episode

We can't wait much longer early next week either way But if I could wish for one thing this weekend as far as baseball transactions go I think it's Kenley Jansen signing somewhere just so we can have a little more clarity about the bullpens around the league. Join our Discord. Within the Discord, you can find all sorts of good things, including our high of mind rankings, catch up on those this weekend, submit your position rankings for all the positions we've covered so far.

We're going to compile those and put together some listener rankings. We'll share those here in a couple of weeks. We got a lot of responses so far. Looking forward to getting a few more of those. The other benefit of joining the Discord is great memes. This is a beauty from Captain Jason Solo. There is, for those of you who are not watching on YouTube

or in the Discord, Eno getting heckled by listeners. We've got Curly Guy, Lars Newtbars health grade, and interrupting me as this three almost demons sort of bullying Eno. And then there's me in the next frame reaching out, DVR's Midwest kindness. And then the third frame is it's on the rundown as I give you know

a back-to-belly suplex and crush him so sorry you know I didn't mean to to crush you after everybody else was crushing you previously that that was not my intent no problem one other bit of housekeeping elsewhere on the athletic podcast network Chantel Jennings brings you the story of a Notre Dame freshman forward, Kate Koval, who grew up in Ukraine, moved to the US at age 15 to pursue her basketball dreams. Less than a year later, Kate's world was upended again when her home country was invaded by Russia,

tearing her family apart in ways she could never have imagined and forcing Kate and all those around her to reconsider the true meaning of sacrifice. Check it out on the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. All right, on to the rest of the rundown. Max Scherzer has a new home. The final chapter perhaps of Max Scherzer's big league career will be played out in Toronto,

at least to start the year. It's a one year deal, makes sense at this stage of his career, $15.5 million, no deferrals. Yep, that also checks out. This is a situation very similar to Justin Verlander though, where they're at the point in their career where it's year to year, it's teams that are probably hopeful of making the playoffs even if they're not necessarily projected for it. The Jays have been aggressive over the course of this offseason.

As far as what it does to their depth chart, it should bump Yariyahu Rodriguez into the swingman role probably sends Jake Bloss down to triple A to be in the season but the key question here what's left in the tank for Max Scherzer? I mean a lot of injuries have started to pile up on him at this stage as well so that complicates things a little bit but is there a quality back end starter here for the Jays? Guess who has a better fastball stuff plus between Scherzer and Verlander? Probably Scherzer now. New, new stuff.

Oh, okay, so I flip, but it's probably Scherzer now. Yeah, yeah, because the old one said it was Verlander, but it was weird because Verlander's fastball was getting hit very hard. And we had the whole solution for Verlander to kind of toggle his usage of the fore seam and throw it to different places. Whereas I don't think Scherzer's had that problem. In fact, you can just look at some of the surface level results and Scherzer has been

a little better recently. The problem has been the back. So, I guess health wise, I might give it to Verlander, although he had his issues outside of his more recent Tommy John peripherals I'll give to Verlander like you know sort of park factor peripherals like I'd like his Divisional setup better although you have to face the Dodgers But I think Scherzer will consistently have hot tougher opponents and tougher parks but stuff wise I like Scherzer and

So I think when you are picking these guys where you're picking them, you're not picking them for 180 innings. And so you might as well take Scherzer over Verlander. All right. So you have a clear preference between the two. That's that's pretty interesting, but good reasoning behind it. And I think the the park makes it closer for me. San Francisco gives me a lot of confidence. You're right about having to face the Dodgers. Arizona, as we learned last year,

also just a tough lineup to deal with too. So the indivision matchups do sort of bring the park boost down a little bit, given where we're at right now. I look at Scherzer and I'm almost more worried about him physically. 43 in the third innings last year is just a dreadful workload and in the back is a huge problem at this point. So I think if I'm choosing I might be more inclined to

go the other way and take Verlander. They're still very similar in price. I don't think that's going to change now that Scherzer has a team either. I guess knowing that you prefer Scherzer, are you actually doing that or are you going to the other pitchers in this range? Because these are guys we have not talked about in a preview yet, they're the late, late, late pitchers that go basically in episode four of our three-part series. Yeah, check the math on that one.

But that includes guys like Hayden Birdsong, Grant Holmes, Ryan Weathers, Kyle Harrison, Luis Ortiz, if you prefer more crusty veteran types, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Savalli go in that group, and then Edward Cabrera also is in there. It's a dart at that point, right? It's one of your last pitchers on your roster. The weird thing about these guys, though,

I will take them at their ADP, but I bet you they have pretty wide ranges. Do you have that in front of you, sort of max and min? Because I'm in this draft right now where Scherzer got taken after the news in the 19th round. And he got taken, let's see if that's going that way. He got taken ahead of Barrios, Olsen, Verlander, Keller, Cutter Crawford, Clay Holmes, Walker Bueller, Nestor Cortez,

Jackson Job, Luis Severino, Brian Bayo. Like, I would take a fair amount of those guys, I think. I'm not looking at my rankings when I say this, and I should, but. While you pull that up. Yeah, I would take a fair amount of those guys. Because I have Scherzer and Verlander, like 92, 93, but I have Nestor Cortez in the 80s I have Ortiz in the 80s I Brian Bayo in the in the short

80s so like Reese Olsen I haven't at 71 so Reese Olsen went after Max Scherzer and I have in 20 picks higher doesn't that seem right though because Reese Olsen is like pretty good in a good park and younger. Yeah, I mean health is the main question for Olsen. For Reese too I guess. But 112 and a third last year. More than Scherzer. More than Scherzer. More than Verlander?

Where's the strikeout rig going for Reese Olsen? I don't know dude. But he goes in a group of players where if I know exactly how to use you, Verlader's close, I mean, I feel like you could be like, just use him at home. You know, and you'll probably get a pretty good picture out of it. Yeah, and then occasionally you may have to use him for some road starts because of injuries

and other things happening to your roster, but I think you'll be all right if it happens like that. So we're split as far as our preferences between Scherzer and Verlander. I do think you'll see widespread, so far, last 14 days, Justin Verlander. I do think you'll see widespread so far last 14 days, Justin Verlander min pick 258, Max pick 644. I mean, that's kind of silly. 261 to 508.

That's probably before he signed, maybe somebody, some group decided that he wasn't going to sign or maybe he was done. Yeah. So I do think you'll see those min picks probably creep up for both of those guys given their reputations And now that 250 is not too far from you know where he just went in my draft, right? Yeah It's not that far the name that came up in that list of alternatives that Deserves a quick look is Grant Holmes, and I'm worried

We're not gonna get to every single pitcher in the pool Anyway, so I feel like it's okay to break the mold a little bit and bring Grant Holmes into this random conversation. Let's talk about him. So the reason why I think Grant Holmes deserves a second look is because Atlanta's been really quiet in terms of upgrading and changing the roster this offseason, right? They made the pro far signing. We talked about that during the outfield preview. That kind of fills an area of need, but they're relying on the return to health from Strider. So it's sale Strider at the top. Ronaldo Lopez we talked

about dealt with some arm injuries in the second half last year. He's the number three right now. We love Spencer Schwellenbach so he's really the three. And Grant Holmes would be probably the favorite to be the number five starter as things sit today. Pangres has Ian Anderson in there and I take Holmes over Anderson. Grant Holmes was really good last year. I mean, a 24.8% K rate, 5.3% walk rate. I know it wasn't exclusively as a starter, right?

It was 26 appearances, seven starts, but they changed him. We talked about the mix being a lot different for Grant Holmes once he left Oakland. Is this a late breakout? Is this actually a guy that goes extremely late that has a better path to a starting spot than some of the guys ahead of him who are clearly already sixth or seventh

on their depth chart and actually showed intriguing skills a year ago? Yeah, I think the only risk is that maybe there's an incomplete on their offseason regimen in Atlanta because they do have 10, 11 million dollars under the first apron. So they could spend that money. I don't think they'd get Nick Pivetta for 10 million dollars

and honestly, actually I don't even know if they would get a starting pitcher for 10, you know what I mean? Like. Oh, Scherzer got 15 and a half. Like 15 seems to be the going rate for a lot of guys that you would actually slot into a fourth or fifth rotation spot The changes that Holmes made were to throw a slider that's not his best pitch

You know that he hadn't really thrown before and he's got slider curve Which are good and then sort of cutter fastball which are mediocre ish but not in like such a bad level like in terms of V lo like jokerish, but not in like such a bad level. Like in terms of Vilo, like, uh, he's in 94 plus. So, you know, he kind of took that reliever mentality to starting where he was like, you know, I relieved a little bit. And then when I started again, I realized I could just try to throw that hard for the five innings they give me kind of a, a modern, a modern approach to pitching,

but it works because he just throws with great command two baseballs and like mixes in the fastballs when he needs to to keep him honest. Oops, he has them at 388, much better than the other projections and I tend to believe that one. And, you know, given our conversations just now about like who's out there for a $10 million that could even supplant him. And I'm going to the free agent tracker right now for un signed pitchers. And I've got Jack Flaherty. He's not signed for 10.

Andrew Haney, he's got a projection of two at 12.5 a year. If that went down, but Haney is like one of those guys that's, you know, even in his last gig was in between the rotation and the bullpen. Like he could just be a depth piece if they sign him. You know, Patrick Corbin, Kyle Gibson has a one in ten. Would Kyle Gibson supplant Grant Holmes? I feel like Holmes is a reason why you wouldn't spend

10 million dollars on Kyle Gibson. Yeah. Does he have options? As you wanted to? You should know, Holmes does not have options. Because he's been around for so long. Yeah, I was going to say he's like 28. So no. So he's going to be on the roster. And worst case scenario, he's like the on the roster six starter,

you know, which we've realized now is like 110 in and gig Yeah, especially if you have low health grades on multiple Starters guys ahead of them and that's definitely the case I think with the way this rotation is built right now Anyway, just thought Holmes was sort of a name that gets less attention than a lot of the others that were in that group of alternatives kind of in between the likes of Scherzer and Verlander ADP wise right now. As I mentioned up top we have movement in the reliever market the Royals getting on the board again Carlos Estevez goes there on a two-year deal it can become a three-year deal worth a total of 33 million dollars. I don't know if we have clarity

yet from anyone in the Royals front office indicating that they will use Estevez as the closer over Lucas Erceg, but that is definitely the concern given that Estevez has experience in that role, a little bit more experience in that role than Erceg, who looks really good and by all accounts is a fantastic high leverage reliever. So what is the situation here as far as how you want to approach uncertainty? Weekend drafts. If you're thinking about investing anything in this Kansas City bullpen in hopes of getting the person that leads this team in saves, what is your approach? I'm a go with that guy with better stuff. Lucas Herceg has a 10-point advantage in New Stuff Plus over Carlos Estevez and I think that matters. But I did want to sort of reinvestigate

my priors as always. Reinvestigate yourself is maybe a motto of mine. And in this case, I went and looked and I did the R squared between in season stuff, fastball stuff, strikeout rate, walk rate, and saves. So that's not predicting next year's saves, it's sort of being descriptive of this year's. And I don't know if you've got the board for that. I didn't make the board because it's pretty ugly. Yeah, it's just like numbers.

But what I found was that, like stick with me here. This is my analogy. So if you want to describe ERA this year, you can look at strikeouts, walks, and strikeout minus walks, right? We know that strikeout minus walks is like very strong. Overall stuff plus for a player is more predictive of saves than walk rate is of ERA.

And it's just slightly worse predictive than strikeout rate is of ERA, but it's not as strong as K minus BB. So Stuff Plus is not the K minus BB of saves, which I was kind of hoping it would be. And I thought I also tested Fastball Stuff Plus and that was weaker than overall Stuff Plus. So maybe, you know, it doesn't matter that Earthseg

throws harder and has more stuff, but I also wanna put this to the readers. We've talked about this idea that maybe some teams have a fireman and have like, maybe use their best reliever in the seventh and eighth to like You know hit the lineup where they need it and then finish with a just a cromulent closer You know and I want to put forth to you I looked through the bullpens last year and I'm not sure if anyone did it if someone did it

I think it was the Phillies with Jeff Hoffman floating around behind Carlos Estevez. I think Hoffman might have been better. I couldn't find anywhere else. Like Hector Naris was saving and Porter Hodge wasn't, but guess how it ended. Yeah, there is like a progression that can happen sometimes with these teams that go with the guy that has slightly lesser stuff. I mean, Carlos Estevez is not bad. Like he might be the closer to start the year, right? Like a little bit like a Naris, but I don't know if he's He might be the closer to start the year, right? A little bit like Anares, but I don't know if he's going to be the closer to end the year. I would say it just devalues both of them, but if you want a cold one in a dynasty or something, it's definitely Ersegg.

The Ersegg situation, just as far as ADP goes, he's going to dip, I would assume. It'd be weird if he didn't. His ADP, last 14 days, basically no news like this factored in, pick 123. Yeah, that's going down. That's definitely gonna go down. It's like just behind Ryan Walker, just ahead of Kirby Yates, who's also gonna fall after landing with Dodgers.

We'll get to their bullpen in just a few minutes. Alexis Diaz, I assume Ersek falls behind Diaz. You know who's gonna rise up to meet Ersek is Justin Martinez with Arizona, because until Jansen signs, because Arizona could totally sign Jansen. There's a lot of different situations right now that could sign Jansen and mess things up,

but just like Estevez messed things up. But I might take Justin Martinez over Lucas Erceg right now because he has the job. That's what screws up any numbers you try to use to predict saves is that the most powerful thing is who pitched the eighth, who has the opportunity. You know what I mean? That's the most powerful thing is role. That's the most powerful predictor. And that's really hard in the off season

because we're just like, you know, what does the manager say? And the manager's gonna lie to you. I like both these guys. Both these guys are gonna get chances. We have every man on deck kind of a philosophy here. Which, and it's one of those things where what is said about the role and what is done,

it's a little bit like soft using a six man rotation. The Dodgers don't come out and call it out, but they do it. And some teams will use a committee and kind of suggest that they are not gonna use one. Some teams will say the opposite. It's just decoding those lies is part of the job, but I feel like it's still very hard to do it

even with a lot of experience. Just to let people behind the curtain a little bit, I actually think that the media has a role, in a weird way, in declaring closers and stuff. Because what happens is, before the game and after the game, one of the most often asked questions from the media to the manager is, who's your closer? What's going on at Closer?

Is he gonna have the opportunities to close this game? You know what I mean? And if your Closer starts blowing it, how long are you gonna stay with him? Literally, that's one of the most, the other most often asked question is, how's Blobby Blobby's ankle or knee or elbow? It's one of the most boring things

that's done every day. And managers have to do it with a smile on their face and make friends among media. And the ones like Roberts and people like that, they're really great at it. But it is one of the dumbest things. So I do think that that puts pressure on, and then the last thing is,

as Sky Cogman pointed this out, and he's on the discord and you'll see my blue sky and stuff. In fact if you look the highest leverage opportunities are in the ninth. So you can shoot yourself in the foot by being like no no we're holding Jeff Hoffman you know for the biggest opportunity when it actually might be the ninth. You might use Jeff Hoffff hoppin seventh and then oh crap. You know now to one run game in the night the biggest leverage opportunities and being the night there is a reason we have closers. And it does take something just beyond stuff so i won't be like you know totally by the numbers it's just stuff you know i know from the numbers is not just stuff. by the numbers. It's just stuff, you know? I know from the numbers it's not just stuff.

But that is how I queue. I think the guy with the best stuff in the bullpen is going to be the closer. That's how I work. That is a reasonable foundation to live your life in fantasy baseball. I think it's good to have some basic rules in place. I use the New York Times games app every single day. I love playing Connections. With Connections, I need to twist my brain to see the different categories. I think I know this connection. Look, Bath is a city in England, Sandwich is a city in England, Reading is a city in England, and I'm gonna guess Derby is a city in England. I started Wordle 194 days ago and I haven't missed a day. The New York Times Games app has all the games right there.

I absolutely love spelling bee. I always have to get genius. I've seen you yell at it and say that. That should be a word. Totally should be a word. Sudoku is kind of my version of lifting heavy weights at the gym. At this point, I'm probably more consistent with doing

the crossword than brushing my teeth. When I can finish a hard puzzle without pins, I feel like the smartest person in the world. When I have to look up a clue to help me, I'm learning something new. It gives me joy every single day. Start playing in the New York Times Games app. You can download it at nytimes.com slash games app. I think in the case of the Royals, if Airzeg falls and Estevez is still cheaper in drafts

or they're similar in price, I actually think the other factor beyond the stuff is money. I've always thought the contracts, the amount of money that you're giving someone will shape the plan a little bit. It shapes how you're thought of in the clubhouse. Right. It's this extra factor that might vary from club to club, but I think it always has some weight. And just previous work in the role, Carlos Estevez has 57 saves over the last two seasons

pitching for I think three different teams. But Erzsig has saves too, you know. Or two different teams. Yeah, Erzsig's got some too. But I just, I think I'm taking the cheaper of the two if I'm getting into this situation at all. And it might be one to avoid. You're taking the cheaper of the two.

Whoever's cheaper. Oh, you mean draft costs. The draft day costs. Because, because I don't think they add Carlos Estevez at 11 million a year if they don't have some intention to keeping it in high leverage and then it could toggle and you're like, maybe I'm wrong, but I think it could be cheap enough too where it's a cut if they don't have some intention to have a leverage and then it could toggle and maybe I'm wrong but I think it could be cheap enough to where it's a cut if I'm wrong. So my guess is they get close to an ADP. I end up with the cheaper one. If I end up with one at all,

the goal would be to avoid. We can rinse and repeat for the next item almost. Is it the next item? I'm not looking at the rundown right now but we have another item that's very close to the same conversation. We might want to just jump to it because it's almost the same idea. So a point of clarity, Eno does read the rundown and open the rundown. I made the rundown. He made this one. He did me a favor and did 95% of the work making this one. And then I started and molded a little bit more to make sure I was comfortable with it. We're good to go. So I appreciate that.

Just ignored me. What really happens in Eno's world. I know this is the truth. It's a little peek behind the curtain. Oh no. We've done enough peek behind the curtain. No, we're already behind the curtain. I'm already uncomfortable.

I don't like this. Where is this going? Eno will set the record one day for most tabs opened on a computer at the company. And I know if our tech team can count tabs remotely, they could verify this, that there's no, I would wager there's no person at the athletic who has more tabs open on their computer at any given time than Eno.

I have three browsers open with all of the, all the records of tabs. Three browsers, three windows per browser, and probably about 35 tabs per window. Yeah, your browser tab situation, it's like being addicted to poker and playing like 15 tables at a time. That's what you're doing with tabs.

Oh, I've got Justin Martinez's fan-graphs page open in three different browsers at the same time. that's how you lose track of the rundown it's not because you don't care about it it's because it's just I have no idea where it is and all these tabs and I have to close a lot of the the browsers to do this show because having so many tabs open it's just a drain on all the resources. Yeah the recording gets choppy the video starts to glitch out because of the... So that's what's really happening, if you want to understand how the sausage is made here.

So I just, I have to fly blind, and I put myself in your hands. And we're still here, so I mean, I must be okay. Just making sure we get the information out there. Let's go to the cub situation though. They make a trade with the Astros. That is the one I was talking about. Yeah, good deal.

I mean, you built it, so you had a good feel for it. I didn't completely jumble it. I just highlighted some stuff. Ryan Presley's a Cub now. I assume Ryan Presley's the closer now because that's a bullpen where there are younger guys that have good stuff. You've talked about your appreciation for Nate Pearson

and some of the ways the Cubs might use him. He has the best stuff of the three, of him, Porter Hodge, and Presley, yeah. Hodge was sort of the guy that had it at the end of the year, that looked like a keeper in dynasty leagues, he picked him up, maybe. That would be your source. Some whispers that the Cubs are gonna stretch him out

to a point, and this being Pearson? Right, so that would give you a clarity that it's Presley versus Hodge maybe and Pearson's more of a, hey, you're gonna be the fireman that gets us four, five, six outs at a time. You're gonna be a sixth, seventh, eighth inning guy wherever we need you and then whatever chairs we have after that are how it goes.

And I wonder too, thinking about Craig Council as a manager, how he handled things in Milwaukee, having a capital C closer most of the time that he was there. That's probably how he wants to make a big deal. With a young guy behind him that was actually pretty fire. That was kind of the council's thing, was like we've got an established guy and we have Trevor McGill behind him.

You know, like we always have the other guy that's like coming up. Yeah, yeah, you had Williams when you had Hader. And it's just the way the way you're built. You got your depth. It's good. I think Presley begins the year with the job, but same kind of question. Does he finish the year with the job? And we've seen erosions to his stuff. Not a surprise. He's 36 years old, but he's still pretty good.

He's coming off of a down year, basically the worst year he's had since the shortened season in 2020, worst full season he's still pretty good. He's coming off of a down year, basically the worst year he's had since the shortened season in 2020, worst full season he's had since his final year, fun-fun full year with the twins all the way back in 2017. Which version of Ryan Presley are we getting with his move to the Cubs? This is why I looked up fastball stuff for us versus overall stuff plus,

because Ryan Presley's fastball has been going down and You know, he has a 91 stuff plus on his fastball right now. I thought oh, okay So the the case I'm making here is that? Hodges fastballs better and that's gonna be more predictive of saves It turned out that overall stuff plus was more predictive than fastball stuff plus. So I was wrong on that one.

I still think eventually you kind of go to the closers fastball. So you know what? I like your analysis on the last one. I kind of will just, I think Hodge will plummet behind Presley. And I think it makes me a little bit more likely to take Hodge.

Presley would have to be low, I think, for me to take him. I am in a 20-team dynasty where now I'm gonna keep him because I do think he'll start the season as a closer. But yeah, I don't know. I think Hodge might eventually take it, but it may be in August. I actually think there's a better chance if Carlos Estevez is used as the

regular closer for the Royals to start the year and Presley's the regular closer for the Cubs to start the year. I think there's a better chance Estevez keeps it all year of the two. Even though I think Porter Hodge is good. He does have a better pass. I mean you know I do think that it does matter and I am I know I'm working more off an anecdote here than what my numbers says. But I do think that, you know, what happens with the closers fastball is you can't like you can still throw it in the zone and be dominant. Right. And what happens if you don't have the closers fastball is you kind of end up, you know, throwing a bunch of junk, which is not really what your manager, I think,

wants to see how to get closer. Because that can lead to walks and like, you know what I mean, like really long innings where you're just like, oh my God, can you get this guy out? Like think about all the guys who've had a, closest fastball with a capital C and a capital F. A lot of those guys have had the longevity in the role.

Like those are the kind of hall-famers. Moe's cutter, Billy Wagner's fastball, that sort of deal. Yeah, so I think there's a path for Presley to keep this job for a little while, even though Porter Hodge is probably still your keeper dynasty stash if you can afford to hold a reliever that's not closing in your league. That's probably the current assessment

of how things sit for the Cubs. And we'll talk about a little bit more when we do the closers episode a little bit more about how these guys maybe rank in ordinal fashion, in terms of where would you end up taking Presley and where would you end up taking Estevez? Because I think we both agree, you take Presley and Estevez,

like if all things being equal, you take Presley and Estevez first, but there may be a case to be made to take Ersag and Hodge much later and avoid getting in trouble with a mediocre veteran closer. There's a lot of this like Kenley Jansen that happens, right? Where he has the role to begin the season. And by August, everyone's like, is he still the closer?

And usually he still is. Yeah, Kimbrel, Kimbrel. Kimbrel's a little worse I think as far as that second half wobble actually costing him save chances. April, he's the closer. July, he's like, what? One more bullpen to look at here for a moment.

The Dodgers officially have added Kirby Yates. I think the last time we spoke about it, it was in the close to an agreement phase or like Bob Nightingale had it but there were no other confirmations of it but now it's actually official this is like a week later it's a one-year 13 million dollar deal what are the Dodgers gonna do mean in the words of Brandon Gomes he was asked about Tanner Scott this is from a Fabian Ardya piece on the athletic Brandon Gomes said I think Tanner is going to get a ton of He was asked about Tanner Scott. This is from a Fabian Ardya piece on the Athletic.

Brandon Gomes said, I think Tanner is going to get a ton of opportunities to close games, but the biggest thing is how it fits together to handle the back end. I think the main focus will be how best do we put that bullpen together down the stretch for Doc to figure out how he's going to deploy guys. So in this instance, right, there's a little bit of situational, how do we handle it, like based on who we're facing. Down the stretch as if we may just have a closer

that we just sort of like putz through the season with, you know, so that more people see him. And he's like in more situations against the three, four, fives and whatever, and we're gonna win anyway, and you know, whatever, you know But then by playoff time, maybe a totally different bullpen and that is what we saw this year Yeah, that's a little strange too But you know what matters to you in the regular season might not be the exact same list of things that matters in the playoffs

Also, the more people see you, the worse you are against them. Right, right. Could you just sort of managing like, you know, we don't want the Padres to see, you know, our September closer, you know, every time. They're gonna say, yeah, the Padres in division, Kirby Yates is gonna get the saves. Yeah, right. Until September, then it's gonna be like, oh, damn, now here's Tanner Scott.

Against teams they don't expect to see in the playoffs, Tanner Scott's gonna get all the saves. Maybe, I don't know, it's an idea. I would love to see that tracked. I mean, what we have seen is a real upheaval in September and October in terms of bullpen usage. I mean, just, it almost doesn't matter who your closer's been all year,

but when it gets to October, sometimes it's your third starting pitcher. It's just like, I think it's very stuff oriented where it's like, who has the best stuff in the last two weeks? It may not be our flagging 36 year old may go to Cooperstown closer anymore. That's true.

And I think that's important. I mean, when I look at the Dodgers right now, apparently the injury concerns that Kopec had at the end of last season are a non-factor right now. So that's good news as far as. I think he'd be my closer if I ran things, just because I'd be like right-hander with that fastball. Just do it.

You know, if I was just setting it up, because then I'd be like Scott can come in for the big lefties. You know, Yates and Scott, it was like a great tandem. And Evan Phillips in the seventh to get all your righties out, I don't know. It's a pretty good bullpen. Nobody has options though,

so there's no optioning around. They have to be really careful about how much they use people, I think. They'll be using the IL instead of options. I loved Ko-Pek where he was going before they added Scott. I kinda think Scott's gonna end up leading the team in saves now. With like 18.

18 to 22, but great ratios. And it's fine, he's being treated as a clear closer to. The earliest he's been drafted, just looking at the last five days of ADP's pick 160 And they're gonna generate plenty of save chances, so I think that's a bargain I don't know where the ADP is really gonna end up once we get closer to March But those comments from Brandon Gomes to me are pretty good signal that if we're splitting even even three people Yes, Scott's the guy he mentioned Scott's the guy that's getting the largest share of that pie, I think, based on what we're hearing.

I think Yates is getting the smallest. I mean, when we're talking about Closers Fastball, like, it's not his. No, I'm telling you, man, Kirby Yates is getting all the saves against the Padres. Like, that's gonna be their move. But I do like Tanner Scott, where he's going right now. I think he's the way to get the best share

of the Dodgers bullpen that you can get, at least as things sit here on the last day of January. How about this? We got a movement on the position player side. A couple of them, the Rays have signed Ha Seon Kim. It is a two-year deal. There is an opt-out. 13 million this year could be 16 million next year.

This seems like an easy layup decision for Kim to opt out. If he's healthy for most of this season, he's young enough, good enough defensive shortstop where three or a four year deal seems like a guarantee for him. The big question is like, what is he gonna be like at the plate coming off of shoulder surgery and the related big question is,

how far behind is he actually going to be because you hear different things depending on who's talking? I think the market tells us I think the deal tells us something You know the number of dollars he was given by the raise tells us something because this is not an expensive deal and You know we just talked about how the Braves might have ten million dollars could they have figured out a way To structure this where it's $10 million and some deferred? You know what I mean?

I mean, they have Orlando Arcea, like, they could do better than that. Right now they're 27th in the depth charts at shortstop, and they're the Braves. You got the Tigers trying to get better, they're 26th. You get the Brewers 25th with Joey Ortiz there, which leaves third open. So you could have signed Kim and put him there and push Joey Ortiz back to third.

You know, other possible options, the Guardians with Rokio at 21. I know they don't spend, but this is not spending hard, you know? And so even the Padres with moving Zandier Brogaards over. So none of those teams that could have used him and probably have $10 million, I don't know if the Padres do, I don't know if the Braves do, but one of those teams had $10, $15 million they could have spent, they all passed on Kim.

So I think people are legitimately worried about the shoulder. Yeah, it was a labrum repair on the throwing shoulder for a short stop. Short stop. So yeah, you will have questions about the arm strength and when you can comfortably play him there again. And then, you know, it's the back shoulder

for him as a hitter. So maybe that's a little less of a concern on the hitting side overall. But he wasn't really a power hitter anyway. But supposedly by Jeff Zimmerman's numbers, you wanna subtract 20 points of OPS from somebody who missed more than 30 days with a shoulder problem. Mm-hmm. I put some in the old 680 range if you do that from last season I did look at him like next to other players at the 680 level and it's better than Caballero and waltz

Yeah, that's why they did this deal Yeah, as far as the Rays go, I mean, okay, this is a good fit. They needed a shortstop, a guy that can be at least an average big league bat even coming off the injury. That'd be a step forward compared to Caballero. Caballero looks like a clear bench option. Walls has been so banged up. I think he's a bench player too. I know at one point there were some prospect analysts out there that saw him as at least a second division regular, like a good enough shortstop,

such a good defensive player that you'd accept a 85 or 90 WRC plus or something along those lines. But the Rays didn't feel that way because they went and traded for Caballero and played him over Walls. And Walls was hurt last year too, but so far for his career, Taylor Walls has a 71 WRC plus in the big leagues. And that's in 1,200 played appearances. So, you know, one of Walls or Caballero

is gonna get optioned down, assuming everyone's healthy. They both have options. They start with Caballero and Walls and Kim on the IL. And so then one of them will get optioned when Kim comes back. Good point of clarity. Once Kim's ready, one of Walls or Caballero is off the roster.

They can be optioned. You don't have to DFA him. But as far as how your bench would go at that time, it's one of those guys. Until Kim's back, both are on the roster. Your backup catcher is your second bench spot. Richie Palacios can play all over. I think he's your third bench spot.

And then as we talked about on the UT preview, Eloy Jimenez, if he makes the roster, he's there as a platoon partner for Jonathan Aranda, who also still has options left. So what you may find is that there's somebody without, I mean, that actually helps Eloy, because he doesn't have options. You have to kind of put him on your roster, right?

So if Eloy turns into the Luke Railey situation where they think they have someone, they will maybe even option Aranda if they think that that's what they need to do to keep Eloy on the roster, you know what I mean? That's what they did with Railey. I forget, I think it was Aranda. Was it Aranda?

There was somebody that we were all excited about that was gonna have first base, and I was like, no like no really doesn't have options They're gonna keep really they're gonna keep really and they kept really an option the other guy That may have been Jonathan or Rhonda on the wrong side of that like that seems like it overlaps Maybe Jason Collette can can chime in at some point me like no you guys wrong forgot about this guy the Rays also Messed with playing time wise, but maybe is Nate Lowe I don't think it goes back quite that far in this case

But they definitely messed with Nate Lowe or messed with me with their usage of Nate Lowe. I recall that very fondly. The other guys on this roster, okay, so just thinking about the Rays and how they're built and what they're likely to do next. The only Rays without options in the position player group, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lau, Danny Jansen, Eloy Jimenez, and Ben Roartfit, the backup catcher.

Everybody else. They're all making the team. Everybody else can be optioned. Yeah, and if Roartveit doesn't make the team, then he would just DFAM expose him to waivers. Like if he's a backup catcher. And he's better than Driscoll, who they've got the has options. So I think Roartveit's just safely the backup catcher, fine.

Okay, no need to spend more time on that. The thing that I think they're gonna do though, we keep looking at their group and saying, maybe they have like one more bat than they need just because of their ability to find random players. Oh, I mean, I think they'd trade Yandy in a second. Actually. I think you trade somebody,

especially if you could trade someone without options, so Yandy or Brandon Lau, and get bullpen bolsters that have options. Because I looked at their bullpen, there's only one guy on roster resource in that bullpen right now who actually has options, Mason Montgomery. And they usually like to have options in the bullpen

because they like to kind of keep them fresh and stuff. And they end up having injuries a lot too with Fairbanks in there. Right, so if I had to guess what the Rays are up to, it's probably finding a way to get a few more guys with options into that bullpen mix. That'd be my best guess as to what's next for them on the transactions front. If they did that, it would open up rosters. Oh, does Meade have options left?

He does. He has one left. It's his last. This is his last chance. But if they wanted to, they could open up first base for like an Aranda-Mead combination, right? I think Mead is a righty, yeah. So you could have an Aranda-Mead situation, and that has more defensive flexibility, which they love. Because as bad as Aranda and Mead are, defensively, Mead can play third. Mead can probably play second. You know, that has more defensive versatility than Diaz and Aranda. Is Yandy Diaz about to become a brewer?

Ha ha ha! Who's your first baseman right now? Hoskins. Hoskins. Oh, but your DH is sort of open. Yeah, floating right now, but the Yellich is doing, Derek doesn't have a Brewers podcast with you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Yandhi could play third.

Yeah, well, I gotta investigate that further at a later date. I'll do that at my own time this weekend. Or we could just rebrand this as a Brewer's podcast. I don't think that'd be very popular. No. Don't think that'd be good for the listenership of the show.

I don't think Jorge Polanco re-upping with the Mariners is gonna make Jerry DePoto any more popular in Seattle right now It's a one-year seven point seven five million dollar deal. It's less than the option they had on him The deal could get to that total because of incentives. So they just Shed some guarantees basically by playing it out this way as a vesting player option for another year There's a really obvious move for them to make, I think. They needed some help. I mean, they had Dylan Moore as the starter, and Dylan Moore, they've never really wanted to depend

on Dylan Moore as a starter at a position. I think it also helps Ryan Bliss. Yes, I think it does. I think there's a couple things happening in Seattle, though. So they're talking, they're gonna play Palonko at third. So he previously was a shortstop, played second, they're gonna move him back to third. So that's a Palonkoanko Solano situation over there.

Yeah, I think Solano could platoon at first some with Rayleigh, like Solano's gonna just be small. I don't think Locklear makes the team. I think Solano's the one B, three B. I want Locklear to play and just see what he can do. But I think second base is the big question. You mentioned Ryan Bliss. I think he probably gets the first shot.

The weird thing about Ryan Bliss is that Dylan Moore is also a righty so they can't share the spot But Dylan Moore is already 32 years old. What are you doing? If you're Seattle? Should you trade Dylan Moore? My case for trading Dylan Moore is actually that for his career He has a twenty six point eight percent k-rate on the road, 32.9% in Seattle. We've talked about the difficulty of the park so much on this show. Dylan Moore for his career is 17% better than league average when he's anywhere but T-Mobile.

So he's a little old, he does a lot of his damage against lefties, sort of holds his own against righties by WRC Plus. He's a little old, he does a lot of his damage against lefties, sort of holds his own against righties by WRC+. He's a good fantasy player. He's projected to be a league average player, so theoretically anybody who's below average at second base and a contender could be into it. Yeah, and he's cheap because he signed a three-year deal a couple years back that will end this year, so he's clearly priced like a bench guy.

The Giants prize the ability to play all over the diamond. Pairing Fitzgerald and Moore might make sense. The Guardians, the Brewers, yeah, the Brewers have an opening on the infield. Right, they want to move to the terrain. Sorry. You bring them up at least as much as I do, maybe more. The Royals are currently starting Massey in India.

And I think India could play in the outfield. There's something there. I think there maybe more. The Royals are currently starting Massey in India and I think India could play in the outfield. There's something there. I think there are actually, even the Dodgers. There are other teams that could see Dylan Moore being a useful bench plus guy and maybe the results would just be better getting him out of Seattle. Cause those are multi-year splits. I think he's the backup plan in Seattle.

Like he's the human backup plan. He can play everywhere. If Polanco's hurt, he plays third. If Bliss doesn't work out and Cole Young doesn't work out, he plays second. So I think they want that. They want that high floor roster spackle guy. He's their Chris Taylor.

And he's just gonna be there. He might even sign an extension with that. Another three year extension. The three year, $9 million extension. Take that Seattle fans. I don't, I want Seattle fans to be happy, to be completely clear. I just. He did sign a three year nine million dollar extension.

Right, he's gonna sign another one. He's been way better than that. I mean, he's been worth that extension. I mean, almost five wins over the three years. Yeah, I just think he is another example of a player who has really struggled to hit in that ballpark and isn't nearly as bad when you have him hitting anywhere else. You kind of threw Cole Young to that conversation casually. I think Cole Young finishes the year as the second baseman for the Mariners.

I don't love Bliss. I could see it like him giving Bliss a chance, Moore playing over him, and at some point they make the Young Bliss selection differently because Cole Young bats lefty and that's a better platoon with Moore and he has I think the between Bliss and Moore, the best, highest value skill is Young's on-base ability. Right, and that would help in this lineup a lot. I started to look at Cole Young yesterday

and think he is not Jackson Merrill as a prospect, but he's a very good prospect in his own right, and he's already played 124 games at AA. You could tell yourself a story that the Mariners are keeping second base kind of wide open to see what Young does this spring. And if Young's good, maybe they just skip AAA for him, or at least make him a first half call up.

So I think the more I've looked at how they've played this off season, the more I've kind of trickled into this belief that Cole Young's gonna see significant time in Seattle before season's end. Circling back on Polanco real quick, I mean he had patellar tendon surgery on his knee at the end of the season. Apparently the Astros were also considering him as an option. They were negotiating with Alex Bregman. I don't know man, defensively I don't know how well this is really going to go for Polanco.

But can he bounce back with the bat? I was on the side that thought he was an OK fit when they acquired him. I thought, yeah, sure. Jorge Polanco, when he's healthy, he shows 25 to 30 home run power. It's just been a lot of injuries that have slowed him down over the course of his career. And even, Jesus, last season with the Twins in 2023, only played 80 games. But he popped 14 homers.

He had three consecutive seasons, a double-digit barrel rate. He's added a little swing and miss over time to get to that power, but that trade-off seems like it's worth it. And being a guy that can switch hit, maybe he's not as impacted by T-Mobile, taking a lot of those played appearances

from the left side. Yeah, he can be a lefty instead of a righty. Righty is worse. I'm a little bit optimistic about a bounce back for Polanco. Maybe the slash line looks a lot like it did in 2022. He hit 235 with a 340, 6 OBP and a 405 slug. But that's a good bounce back from what he just did last year. And he still could pop 20 or so homers while doing that.

As it comes up in regards to that strikeout rate in Seattle, he had a 25.7% strikeout rate in the second half. So there's some chance that, you know, he was starting to figure it out. You know, some guys I think, you know, get to Seattle and strike out a lot, but, you know, there are people who make contact in Seattle, you know, so there could be a return and 25.6 is an exact match to Jorge Polanco's 2023 strikeout rate.

You know, so I think, um, you know, give him another shot at the park and worst case scenario, you know, what he did, the use case for him, like what he did last year was still useful in some leagues, two 13 with 16 homers and four stolen bases in the second half last year. He was useful in deep leagues. What we're talking about here is probably like a third draft and hold second baseman that can also give you third base eligibility.

We're talking about a mono league guy that might cost you $7 to $8 and return you $15 or something. I don't think we're talking about a 10 and 12 team guy here. Correct. Yes, I'm with you. Deeper leagues. Doesn't make'm with you. Deeper leagues. Doesn't make it that high, yeah.

Deeper leagues for sure, and in the scenario in which the Mariners do trade Dylan Moore, I think Ryan Bliss can be the competent platoon partner for Cole Young, and be the backup shortstop too. I think Bliss is a good enough defender at short where he could be the backup to JP Crawford, so maybe not a great fantasy player, but mono leagues, last guy, reserve, dollar guy.

I think Bliss would be good at that. Padres and Mariners make a lot of trades, and the Padres have no money, so getting a $3 million roster spackle more might actually be, they might be into that. Play him in the outfield some. Into this, I never thought of. I kinda like this one,

because the Padres have no money, right? So could they get $3 million for a high floor, you know backup player that could even help Xander at short Maybe at times, you know Yes, although he's getting older, you know more weekend fun for me figuring out how to make this Padres Mariners deal happen Let's move through the rest of these moves a little bit quickly. Let's go nationals Shinosuke, I'm out of an hour. Sarah of these moves a little bit quickly. Let's go nationals. Shinosuke. 89 miles an hour.

Ogisara. You got ahead of the name. Lerda Sweeper at driveline. Good job. Done. 18% strikeout rate in Japan. I mean, would you ever really want to roster someone who had a sub 20% K rate in Japan?

Not really. I mean, one of the few guys who had a sub 20% K rate in America last year was Patrick Corbin So I think that should make your innards, you know shrivel a little I Would just say I mean it's unknown. So like maybe Final pick in a 12th. I mean would I don't even think I would no I think this is nl only like reserves. Yes reserves Where you like maybe I can bring him in for some good start to start week the week, pitching against the doormat, cold weather starts, you know those kinds of things. I'm not excited about it. How about this one? The Reds acquire

Taylor Rodgers. I'm actually a little bit more excited about the other thing the Reds did. Austin Hayes? Yeah I know it it's $5 million, but he's suddenly atop of the left field situation according to Fangraphs. I don't know if it's right though, because right now they say Austin Hayes in left field, 54% steer, 31%, luck seven. At first base, steer 48%, Encarnacion strand 25%, Candelario 21%,

Candelario 40% at third. Like this is a really messy, we're going to have to spend some time on building a bench and looking through this. But I do think the most opportunity on this team is in the outfield. You know, it's the infield that's, that's pretty crowded and maybe somebody surprisingly gets optioned, maybe Noel,elle Marte or Christian-Anne Carnation-Strand gets optioned because it's a little bit crazy on this infield depth chart.

But the outfield, Hayes is comfortably one of the top four outfielders. He's better than Stuart Fairchild. Yeah, right, I think he's a platoon partner for Jake Fraley and a capable backup around the outfield. So what is that, three? You think he's more of a 300? Because there's, right now if you look at his page,

there's some betting, some of the betting, some of the projection systems are more 300 and some are more 400. I mean, the depth starts at 500 almost. Closer to like 350 for right now and then maybe another roster move or something shakes it up where I can nudge that up a little higher But yeah

I think I'm think I'm playing a little safe with that playing time projection for Hayes think he's a good fourth outfielder and Platoon partner for Fraley as it currently stands the Reds say they've been busy and they can point to you know Changes they've made and trades they've made But they've been all like very low money value. And like, like who what do I think they're going to do with Taylor Rogers is like mostly play him against lefty, pitch him against lefties, because he's not really that getting it right anymore. And he's not a closer. He's not going to, you know, he's not going to, you know, push

Alexis Diaz in the closer role. So that's been kind of the kind of moves they make. Austin Hayes for one in five million. What was another move they made? They were reportedly trying to work out a deal for Luis Robert. That one I can get behind, but, uh, and I guess we should give them credit. Nick Martinez did cost him $20 million. I don't think they should have spent that $20 million on Nick Martinez, but they did do that and they traded for Gavin

Lux. So like I can't say these are bad moves, but they're all a little small. Is that mean to say? No, I think that's the world Bob Castellini chooses to operate in. Tommy Kaley to the Tigers, just bullpen depth, right? Probably doesn't change anything as far as saves, just a guy. Ryan Stanek's back with the Mets, good depth. The Reds also had Wade Miley, that was the other thing that they did. Minor league deal.

Minor league deal. Wade Miley is just like rotation glue and great clubhouse guy, second pitching coach. Like he's kind of got all of those hats that he can wear. He's not that far. He's probably there seven right now. And if Lodolo's hurt, which is like, yeah, when Lodolo's hurt. And then if Louder is struggling, you know, you know, Miley could be in there. Albert Alzolai also goes to the Mets two year deal is going to miss 2025.

So it's just why didn't the Cubs do that? I don't know. I can't speak for them I wonder if there's something they just felt like maybe there had been some bad blood between them because he'd they kind of yo-yoed him Between the rotation of bullpen or something, but it's just it's not that far from what they would have paid him You know, they should just kept him. This is a team that's had a hard time building a bullpen I don't really get that one. I like it for the Mets This is a team that's had a hard time building a bullpen. I don't really get that one. I like it for the Mets.

We got a couple moves from the Orioles, Jorge Mateo back on a one year deal to provide some depth, just to clear back up I think at this point. Nice bench guy. Dylan Carlson move by the Orioles plus this one. Dylan Carlson got a major league deal and Jorge Mateo got a major league deal.

I think their bench is set. It is Urias, Mateo, Carlson, and Sanchez. And that means no Kirstad. I'm just saying. Out of new cuts were due tonight, by the way. So I already preemptively jumped in there. Well, it's okay. So yeah, I'm looking at Roster Resource right. Uh, well, it's okay. So yeah, looking at roster resource right now,

they don't have Carlson, they don't have Carlson on here yet? Once you factor in Carlson, I mean. The Fangrass dev charts do, but they don't agree with me. But Carlson got a majorly deal, right? I, He has options? Of course he has options.

He's 26, isn't he? Did they just sign him to option him? That's possible, I guess. It's a $975,000 deal. Maybe I read that wrong. I figured he was out of options because of the way he's being traded around, you know? No, it's surprising that he has three.

But, uh. Yeah, I guess so. Kirsteak could make the team. And Carlson could be triple A depth. Get up and stay up. That's how you avoid losing your options. That was the way for Dylan Carlson. I was surprised he ended up there,

because I just didn't really see a path. The need, really. But at that price point, you're like, well, hey, maybe we can unlock a few things that other organizations haven't. Cost is almost nothing. Backup center fielder. Work with our triple A hitting coach.

Yeah, so that's probably where the season begins organizations haven't cost is almost nothing backup center hitting coach yeah yeah so that's probably where the the season begins for Carlson unless there's a couple injuries in spring training alias Diaz ends up in San Diego so they're catching situation is coming into focus which he could start I guess I mean I think they'd rather Campesano takes it but there's I think there's negativity in San Diego at least among the fan base about Campesano. So the ISDS could be like a sneaky good catcher two in deep formats. Yeah, I think at this point I'm just ignoring both of them,

even in two catcher leagues and looking elsewhere for catching help. What about a handcuff? Would you want both of them? I don't think so. I think they're, I think they both have to be cheaper for me to do it. Oh, they're both cheap.

Nah, they gotta be cheaper. Oh, cheaper than they are? Yeah. Than they are? Okay. First two, a Baltic, Mediterranean and Baltic. It's like the first two properties in Monopoly. Cheapest properties, like cheapest possible

catching tandem. Nobody really wants to buy it. Yeah, I think that's the only way, like that rock bottom prices, then I'll say, okay, maybe one will be good enough to. You'd rather have Amaya and Kelly? Yeah, I would. I would.

Because I think Amaya is the best of the four. That's my read on that. And I don't know what they're doing with Moises Ballesteros at this point. I don't think you move catching prospects fast. I'd say this a lot, but I just don't think that they're like, oh, we need to get him up here. It's more like when Kelly's gone, we bring him up.

I think it's slow walk. I was interested by this note by Dan Hayes that Louis Varland is into relief. He has a reliever's arsenal in that. We've always said that he's kind of a tight arsenal. It's really just a fastball slider. And he was like 95-ish with the fastball as a starter. So if he can get up to 97, he could look like a traditional fastball slider closer,

you know? And Duran's been hurt. That one's Duran or is that also Duran? We looked this one up. Durin's been hurt. That one's Durin or is that also Duran? We looked this one up. I'm gonna go Duran I guess. Duran's been hurt a fair amount and Jax is like a sinker sweeper guy at his heart.

So it's not impossible that Louis Varlin gets like five saves this year. The other part of that is that Woods Richardson has become the primary depth. And I believe that Woods Richardson was helped a little bit by the revamp. Oh yeah, his stuff plus went from 87 to 92. But 92 is actually workable if you have a larger arsenal

and you have command, which to some extent describes Wood Richardson. So I guess just replace Louis Varland with Simien Woods Richardson in your heads as possible twins pitcher that could pitch some of this here. Might be okay. I can't figure out why people don't like Joann Duran more. Joann Duran.

He's been my closer in all of my draft and holds so far. You like him plenty. I mean, he slides sometimes, right? He just slides. He's been the cheapest, what I think is still Elite Closer. He's the Closer when he's in. He has Elite stuff. It starts to go to like Iglesias and guys I don't want as much after that. Yeah, I share that assessment. I think he's the last of the clear Closer ones right now based on how the board is coming together. And the good news is we're gonna break that down

in detail early next week with our 2025 reliever preview. We're also gonna open up the mailbag next week so you can drop us some more questions, send those our way. The Manor's had a trifecta of weird ones I just wanna throw out there real quick. Oh no. They signed Luis Castillo, no not that one.

They signed Julio Rodriguez, no not that one. They signed Julio Rodriguez, no not that one. And they signed Neftali Feliz, yes that one, to my other deals. And somehow that makes sense to me all in a row like that. What has Neftali Feliz been doing lately? No idea. But what I think is funny is that this is gonna be annoying as heck

when it comes to V lookup in Excel. If the other Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo get high enough up to end up in the spreadsheets, you might be a few years away from having to actually worry about that and by then Luis Castillo, the current pitcher, may no longer be a member of the Mariners. Yeah. Okay, so another weekend project. What has Neftali Feliz been up to? We haven't seen him in the big leagues since 2021.

Geez. Mexico. Mexican league. Very few pitchers come back from Mexico. That league has been a one-way ticket toward retirement, yes. Robinson Cano is not coming back no he's not in good numbers though so all right maybe this stuff is not a good league that's that's more more likely that's the reason but maybe they saw something there but yeah so thanks to our producer Brian Smith for pulling that

together the the Mexican League that's where Neftali Feliz has been I just feel like I haven't read any any reports rumors skeets tweets anything suggesting he was on the way it's been like a little bit of a percolation of guys I mean Gerard Renconnacion recently came out you know but I mean of course the the biggest one recently is Julio Ríos but right but I have forgotten about Neftali Feliz, so he is back. Exactly. Back in the equation. That's why I thought I would just remind you he exists

and he has a mind league deal. All right. Join our Discord. In the Discord, you can send mailbag questions. Just use the mailbag channel. We'll get a few questions in at some point next week. Always appreciate those. You can find Eno on BlueSky, enocerous.besky.social.

IMDDR.besky.social. I'm ddr.bsky.social. Thanks to Brian Smith for producing this episode. That is gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening. I can't quit you. Hello, I'm Ian McIntosh, and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing. What is the

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