Rates & Barrels - Mike Trout Injury Fallout and Fantasy Free Agent and Trade Targets

Episode Date: July 7, 2023

DVR and Al prepare for the final weekend before the All-Star break, recapping the week’s biggest news, including the fantasy implications of Mike Trout’s hamate surgery. They also discuss their expectations for Colton Cowser and several more widely available hitters, and they look at a few pitchers to target, including Kutter Crawford and Graham Ashcraft. DVR and Al wind up by naming the players they will target in trades as we head into the break. Rundown 0:26 It’s not your normal fantasy baseball weekend 1:36 Mike Trout injury fallout for the Angels' roster 10:06 The week’s other news stories 21:51 Available hitters of note 33:52 Pitchers to target on waivers 43:33 Second-half trade targets Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Friday, July 7th. I'm Derek Van Ryper. You're with Al Melk. You're on this episode. We discuss the big news of the week as it impacts our plans for this weekend.

Of course, the All-Star break is upon us. Coming out of Sunday's games, we have a layoff to begin the week. Everybody resumes on Friday this year this year al so it's nice the schedule has some balance to it we all have this clean four days of of watching the all star festivities and then taking a couple days off wednesday and thursday before the second half or second part of the season begins in earnest and it's a totally different kind of week for wavers because we don't have confirmation of the pitching schedule for the partial week coming out of the break. No team has confirmed its three starters yet because you have some guys

pitching in the all-star game. You have players dealing with injuries right now. You have workload management as a factor where some guys that would be on regular rest certainly get pushed back because we're trying to cap innings. You have players who've been hurt for a long time, potentially coming off the IL. So it's a chaos sort of week. So we're going to focus a bit later on in the episode on some players we think make sense as potential trade targets. Players that have underperformed to this point in the season who could deliver in a big way in the second half. Because I think trades are something you're going to see a lot of in leagues that allow them over the next week or so. But we begin with the big news of the week.

Mike Trout placed on the IL with a handmate injury. He has since had that handmate removed. The timetable for a return is kind of broad on this one. It's four to eight weeks. So if it's the quick return, then we could see him early August. If it's the long end of the return, we're going to be pushing towards September. Of course, the middle ground is also possible there. We have to talk about the implications of this from a real-life perspective on the 3-0 show this week.

But the fantasy impact here is basically putting Joe Adele back on the roster for the Angels and probably bumping up the playing time of a few different guys, right? It sort of stabilizes Mickey Moniac's big side platoon role, probably makes Taylor Ward's role a little bit safer. And then you get the opportunities for Adele probably to play mostly against left-handed pitching. Is there anything in the analysis there that you would add? Or is there anybody that you could see like a Luis Ranjifo kind of moving around all over

the place? You could also see a slight uptick in time as the Angels try to hold it together without Mike Trout. The only other thing I would add, and I did add this in the waiver column this week, is I think it solidifies probably more actually than anybody else on the roster, a regular or close to regular spot for Mike Moustakis. Because Hunter Renfro had been playing some first base,

they're going to need him in the outfield pretty much every day at this point. So I think that it is going to study the playing time for Moustakis. And I like this spot for him. I mean, you would have thought that Colorado would have been a good spot for any hitter, especially one who hits a lot of fly balls and has some power. But that didn't really materialize for Moustakas as a big-time fantasy target. But I think he's got another chance here in Anaheim in, I think, a better lineup,

still a pretty good ballpark, and now a situation with Trout out where I think he is going to play pretty regularly. Yeah, because of all the injuries, the Angels have a lot of them right now beyond Mike Trout. You see guys like Moustakas playing a lot. Matt Tice behind the plate has been playing a ton throughout the first half. Eduardo Escobar, who they acquired via trade, also probably getting steady playing time because Brandon Drury is out right now. That's another guy around the infield that ordinarily would chew up a lot of playing time. He is on the 10-day aisle right now as well. As far as Trout goes, I mean, I think he's sort of a

forced hold in most circumstances. I know NFBC leagues are different. You don't have IL spots there. If you look at the rest of season projection, 274, 10 homers, 23 runs, 23 RBIs, that's over 33 games from the bat X. We know it's possible that he could play more than that if he hits the early end of that timetable, I think we're still, even at this stage of his career, looking at trout as a player that you find a way to hold on to, despite the possibility of a six or eight week absence. If this does happen to run to the longer end of that timetable.

Yeah, absolutely. Because there's the possibility that he comes back on the early side of that. Even if you're in a head toto-head league where you're looking ahead and thinking, okay, maybe there are certain players I could let go because they're not going to contribute in a regular season context. There's no league where I could see that it would make sense to drop somebody of Trout's caliber. Taylor Ward is kind of an interesting player too

while we're talking about the Angels because the playing time has still been pretty stable. He gets occasional days off against same-handed pitching. Just had one on Wednesday actually because of the mixing and matching the Angels can do with some of the depth pieces they've got on the roster right now. His rest of season projection is actually very good. Taylor Ward this season has a 243, 319, 379 line. He's lost almost 100 points off his slugging percentage from where he was a year ago. But the K rate is actually a little better than it was. He's still not chasing a ton of pitches outside the zone. We're just not seeing him hit barrels as often as he did last year in that breakout season.

Projections are still really high on Ward. They would actually point him to be a player that fits into the later part of our conversation today, someone you might want to go get based on a better second half forecasted than what he's put in the book so far. So I'm curious if you have any interest in trying to trade for Taylor Ward, given that the playing time falling out is not going to happen the way we feared a few weeks ago. Well, now I do. I hadn't really been thinking about Taylor Ward as a trade target, but the thing that occurred to me as you were talking through that analysis DVR is that you probably wouldn't have to give up very much to get him. And there is that upside of him repeating what he did for much of 2022. And it's sort of interesting because you say that the projections see him moving back

in that direction. That's what projections do. They find the happy medium. But myself included, and I think I'm probably not alone in this, I've taken a more pessimistic view on Taylor Ward that if you think back to a little more than a year ago when he got the regular playing time and then did so well with it, I think it surprised a lot of people. And so I think that this is a reaction that we can often have with that sort of player, that it's a confirmation bias of sorts of the bias that we had about Ward before he got hot last year.

And saying, okay, see, this is proof. That was a fluke. But I think you're kind of turning that over and saying, okay, see, this is proof. That was a fluke. But I think you're kind of turning that over and saying, okay, here's somebody that you could get in a trade probably without giving up very much. And that upside is still attainable, and the projections point to it. Since we're on the Angels, I'll bring another player into the conversation, even though I know it's part of the show later on. Anthony Rendon,

I have been so wrong about him so far this season. Only two home runs, only played 43 games, but the power is just gone. The same way it was gone a year ago, the same way it was kind of absent in 2021. This is the third consecutive season in which Anthony Rendon has slugged under 400, and he's dropped all the way to 318, easily the worst mark of his career. The barrel rate, even when Anthony Rendon was good in the early part of his career, he was a low barrel rate sort of hitter. We see that sometimes with lower strikeout rate players. You kind of pull your home runs.

You don't really crush everything. You put a lot of weekly hit balls in play. It does sort of work against you a little bit in that barrel rate stat in particular. But I wonder if this is the ultimate buy low in some ways, because they're going to have to trot him out there a lot. He still has a pretty prominent spot in the lineup. And even without Trout, this lineup is not horrible. This is actually at least a league average sort of supporting cast around him. So I could see Rendon piling up sort of decent counting stats, even if the power doesn't come back. And I would wonder, too, maybe the power's gone as far as the home run output, but maybe he can hit 260, 265, 270 the rest of the way with a decent run in RBI total. That actually plays in some deeper leagues.

I don't know if I'm looking at Anthony Rendon as a 10-team or 12-team guy that I'm going to go out and trade for, but in some deeper formats, I might actually be interested as ugly as things have been. Yeah. I like this call too. And just looking over his fan graph sheet, there's one stat that really stands out for me. Because when I think about Anthony Rendon, I think about somebody, first of all, who does need a pretty good hitter's park to take advantage of the limited to moderate power that he has, needs to hit a lot of fly balls. Those are things that he did in the peak of his career. And if you look at his career with the Angels, first season, 2020, the shortened season,

a home run to fly ball ratio, that's just right in line with what he did with the Nationals, 13%. Then the last two seasons, 72 8.9 percent so you'd say okay there seems to be a real loss of power there this year down to 3.7 percent but the thing that tracks with that DVR his pull rate is way down particularly on fly balls he's always pulling fly balls in the neighborhood of 30%, a 30% rate. It's down to 22% this year. So I don't know why that would be, but that could just be one adjustment away from Rendon putting up numbers at at least, you know, maybe not peak numbers,

but at least last year's numbers. And that would make it worth it to get him in a bargain deal. Yeah, I'm there with you. I mean, again, sort of a deep league roster filler sort of player, not necessarily the headliner of a potential deal as you try and shuffle players onto your roster here for the second half. Let's get to the Astros for a moment. Jose Altuve went back on the IL, this time with a left oblique injury.

They're calling it left oblique discomfort. Because the move was retroactive to July 4th. Altuve could be back right after the All-Star break. So I don't know if there's a big time windfall of playing time. As a result of this injury for Mauricio Dubon. But Dubon is one of those guys that I had minimal expectations for. I thought David Hensley who actually got recalled from AAA. I thought Hensley at the end

of the season was going to do basically what Mauricio Dubon is doing in terms of playing time. And maybe defensive versatility is a big part of it, but Dubon has actually hit pretty well so far this year, at least relative to my low expectations. I think the overall numbers are close to a league average sort of hitter, and that plays in a pinch pinch and it's another guy that's going to have pretty good counting stats for deeper leagues already 46 runs scored this season in just 69 games 288 plate appearances so Dubon has already reached a career high in terms of his big league playing time this year and has a shot to probably get to the 450 or 500 plate appearance range because of Altuve's ongoing injury issues and because of his own versatility. Yeah. Yeah. And I remember the discussion you and I had, I think it was the first week of the season

about who is going to fill in for Altuve then. And I'll say now what I think I said then, which is that given that he is getting the steady playing time, I think he's somebody who can be very useful if you need batting average. He has followed through on that potential this year. And the run total is pretty surprising, but it's, we've talked about how the Astros lineup isn't the one to fear like it's been

in the past, but still good enough lineup that Dubon can generate some runs, score some runs mainly. He's not really going to drive in many, but he can score some runs if he stays in the lineup semi-regularly. And I think even when Altuve comes back, he'll in the lineup semi-regularly. And I think even when Altuve comes back, he'll likely do that. Yeah, I think that's a good way to look at it. The batting average boost in particular is what I'm looking for from Mauricio Dubon.

Corbin Carroll left another game this week after a swing kind of bothered his shoulder. The initial tests are encouraging still as far as structural damage and not really finding anything, at least so far. I'm going to assume we're not going to see Corbin Carroll again until after the break, even if they don't put him on the IL. There's got to be a level of concern given that he's had major shoulder surgery before and that swinging the bat has flared this up now. If the Diamondbacks have to go without Corbin Carroll for a stretch, it's probably some kind of Dominic Fletcher, Kyle Lewis platoon. I guess he could get Pavin Smith involved.

But I think the more I look at Pavin Smith this summer, the more I think the Diamondbacks have pretty much seen enough of what he brings to the table, and they're kind of ready to move on. And I think having a depth guy like Fletcher, who continues to put up good numbers at AAA, that gives them a viable alternative. So is there anything else you'd see playing time-wise shifting in Arizona if Corbin Carroll does require added time off coming out of the break?

No, I think you nailed it. The player that I would target would be Fletcher. Or I should say the player that I would target if there was one to target. But we could really say kind of the same things about Fletcher that we said about Dubon. That somebody who should help you with batting average, probably not so much with runs scored, but not somebody who's likely to help you much with power. And that was something you pointed out, DVR, maybe a few weeks back that you have to take the minor league stats maybe with a little bit of a grain of salt as far as power is concerned. So pretty limited appeal there. Yeah, hard hit rate wasn't bad. Fangraphs does have a hard hit rate for AAA players, 37.9%. I think the issue comes

back to lifting the ball with power against top level pitching. That's where I wonder about Dominic Fletcher. I just wish he could do one thing out of stealing bases or hitting home runs. It doesn't seem like he does either of those things well enough, but could at least find some time around the top of the order because of his on-base skills, very similar to Dubon in terms of the fantasy output expectations. To your point about Reno, and I wonder how much of this has impacted Brandon Fott and Ryan Nelson,

even Dre Jameson to an extent. The environments we've talked about, Amarillo and Reno, the AA and AAA affiliates of the Diamondbacks, it might be the most challenging combo of any AA, AAA combo for pitchers to deal with. It does the opposite, of course, for hitters. It makes hitters look really, really good. I wonder for pitchers if it's a longer-term hangover, carryover effect. I'm trying to think about some pitchers that have come through this system that have had a lot of success, and I was drawing blanks. Like prominent pitching prospects that the Diamondbacks have developed

in recent years that have had to play at those affiliates. I think Amarillo is a relatively new affiliate, so that sort of shortens the timeline for this. All that is to say, I think there's a deep dive to be done on the impact of those high elevation hitter-friendly parks where pitchers are finishing their development and how that might make them vulnerable to a longer adjustment period in the big leagues. Trying to explain basically why Fott and Jamison and Nelson have been so, so challenged to make those adjustments so far at the big league level.

Yeah. Now that's really interesting and very, very compelling theory about it. I guess the, the dimebacks need to make some more trades with the Marlins because obviously no issues with Zach Gallin. Yeah, I think that's something, you know, as other pitchers come up through the system,

that should make us a little bit cautious because we've seen enough cases of this now. I mean, it's the same as we've long expected pitchers when they leave Colorado. Starting pitchers out of Colorado. Everything's good. Everything's going to be fine now. And the stuff, sometimes it takes a little time.

John Gray is a good example of someone who's made it work really well. But I can think back all the way to Colin McHugh. It was a former Rocky that once he left Colorado, I think it was Colin McHugh, I was really excited. I was like, here we go. Clean slate, fresh start. And it doesn't always click right away once you're out of those high altitude environments. And I wonder if being back and forth, shuttled back and forth on a contending team also makes that difficult. Because you're just not getting used to the same conditions.

And the extremes can really wreak some havoc on your overall effectiveness. Moving back to some broader news interests here. Tyro Estrada was placed on the IL with a fractured hand. This is a pretty big injury for the Giants and for fantasy managers because Estrada has done a really nice job replicating the success he had a year ago. Al, I think there was a pretty short list of people who looked at Estrada and thought he could repeat or even possibly improve upon what he did in 2022. This is probably a four to six week injury just based on how long fractured hands usually take to heal.

It's really disappointing because we're talking about a guy that was probably on pace for high teens and homers and maybe 35 to 40 steals with a full season of health. Doing that while hitting for a 272 average as well. Casey Schmidt's playing time stabilizes as a result of this. And man, Casey Schmidt has been a guy that I'm actually surprised he's still in the big leagues only because his approach just looks like it needs further refinement. Defensively, he's offering a lot to the Giants right now, and that's probably helping kind of settle him in but a 48.5 percent O-swing percentage so far for Casey Schmidt so is there

anybody else you're looking at on this Giants depth chart that interests you with a guy who plays a ton in Estrada missing significant time there isn't really and I looked it over and thought well maybe Wilmer Flores maybe he he ratchets up the playing time. Because that's what I recall from the past few seasons is that Flores never really had a day-to-day starting job. But it's just there was always enough either roster manipulation or injuries that it seemed like he was always getting in the lineup somewhat regularly and being versatile enough to play different positions. But I think with the presence of Schmidt, maybe that doesn't even happen. And I'm not particularly interested in picking up Schmidt for all the reasons that you noted with the more solidified playing time. It would be a different situation if I saw some evidence

that Flores was going to play more regularly, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. No. And I think if you're looking for monoleagues, Brett Wisely could play a little bit more. I think if they gave him a regular opportunity, Wisely might be good enough in terms of the power-speed combo to make an impact on the bottom of a 15-team league roster, but I don't think we're seeing the playing time break his way to a point where I would recommend that right now. He's just more of the guy that I'm keeping an extra eye on now as a result, because I'm going to have to find a way to make up for that production. Estrada has become a very important piece of that Giants lineup here over the last couple of seasons. Rowdy Tellez has been placed on the IL with forearm inflammation. I didn't realize things were this bad for Rowdy. I watch the Brewers

pretty much every day, and once I saw it written out, I thought, oh yeah, I guess that does make sense. I haven't seen Rowdy Tellez hit a home run in a while. He has not homered since May 22nd. He's hitting 213, 285, 388 now for the season. I think this is a question of, are you waiting for Rowdy to come back post-break, or are you actually trying to cut him loose and find an upgrade on the corner, given how much he has been struggling going back six-plus weeks now? Yeah, my tendency, I will say so far this season,

is to cut players in that situation. And now that we're heading into the second half of the season, looking back, I'm not sure that was always the best move. So it's hard to say. I mean, you talked about NFBC leagues before and how there's no IL spot. So I think when push comes to shove, that's probably a move I would make in an FBC league. If somebody had to go, it could easily be to Les.

The thing is that this week, because it is a weird week in terms of approaching fab, and there just aren't that many players that are really that interesting that are out there in a lot of leagues that might spare to Les for the time being at least. So, but in a, in a more normal week, maybe I would at least consider cutting him. Yeah, I think you have to. I mean, the best case

for keeping him right now would be the lack of urgency because of the short week. And the Brewers don't really have a clear-cut option to play ahead of him. Even with all of his struggles, he still hits in the heart of that order. In the last couple of games without him, Owen Miller has been playing more at first base. Owen Miller is a utility infielder. Nice story, a guy that you could plug in for deeper leagues, but I don't think you want him hitting cleanup, and I don't think you want him playing first base on a regular basis.

So I'm curious to see if the Brewers actually find a first baseman between now and the trade deadline. And that might actually be something that puts extra pressure on Rowdy Tellez's playing time in the second half. They're a team that floats the DH a little bit, but when Jesse Winker is healthy and all their outfielders are reasonably healthy, Winker tends to be the primary DH. So things could become a little tricky for Tellez in the next few weeks, depending on how Matt Arnold and the Brewers want to handle the trade deadline.

They need to add to that lineup. No questions asked that they have any aspirations of being a serious team in October. It's not built. The lineup is not built to do that as it's currently constructed. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Life's a trip. goodnight kid goodnight mama life's a trip make the most of it at Best Western

this episode is brought to you by Peloton forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide or App there are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything.

Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. Let's talk about a few hitters that are widely available as possible sources of relief. Earlier in the week, the Welsh and I talked about Colton Couser.

He's up to a 55% roster rate on CBS at last glance, Al. So not surprising given the tools he brings to the table, a player that can do pretty much everything. So I'm curious where you're drawing the line as far as leagues in which you would pick up Colton Couser this weekend. if OBP is a category or maybe a points league, but I'm not sure that he's going to bring enough power to really unseat a starting outfielder, unless you're, you know, you've got a lot of injuries.

You know, if you're, if your roster is pretty thinned out, I think for the most part though, I don't really see him as a 12 teamer. I see him as just kind of missing that, that threshold. And again,

the format of the league, given his profile does make a difference. But I think he can hit for average. I think he can, as I alluded to, he can get on base. I'm not sure where he's going to settle in the lineup. I think he hit seventh in his debut.

And I could see him kind of hanging out in the bottom third of the Orioles lineup. And then I also wonder, too, is he really up to stay as an everyday player when they've got the full compliment too? So there's a few question marks there for me. If I were bidding on Couser in a 12-teamer, I would definitely not be going aggressively at all.

It's kind of interesting though. The projection is very similar to Jordan Westberg. And it feels like in some instances, the hype isn't quite as high. There is something about Couser that points to a really good real-life profile. That's the OBP over average sort of thing. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be

a batting average liability, though, either. I think sometimes players like this get kind of overlooked because the OBP is so good, and the average by comparison lags slightly behind. I think there is a little bit of 12-team appeal. I think you're right to point out those playing time concerns. I think it's tempering the bidding and fab situations. Instead of pushing your 10% of your original budget out there,

you could probably cut that down quite a bit, especially in a 12-team league, because of the lack of certainty around that time. As they get everyone back, if Colton Kouser is not performing, he could go down again for a little while. The thing about the Orioles' lineup, as good as they get everyone back. If Colton Kouser is not performing, he could go down again for a little while. The thing about the Orioles lineup, as good as they are right now, and it is great as this season is going for them. I don't think their lineup is,

is written in permanent marker by any stretch. I think they could actually shuffle a lot of things around when you start to look at who hits where and Ryan O'Hearn, he's done really well in a part-time role. Ryan O'Hearn is hitting cleanup. Do you trust Ryan O'Hearn to stick as a cleanup hitter on the big side of platoon? Or do you assume that Ryan O'Hearn goes back to typical Ryan O'Hearn levels in the second half and everybody behind him ultimately moves up? I mean, there's that.

There's the Aaron Hicks performance that Welsh and I talked about earlier in the week. Hicks, after that really good start for the Orioles, looks kind of like the guy who was done with the Yankees again. So maybe Aaron Hicks gets bumped off the roster because they don't have anything long-term committed to him. He's just a guy kind of holding a spot in the roster right now. So it could actually break a few different ways. And I think Couser's performance in the short term will ultimately dictate some of those choices. And I've not read anything to this regard, but it seems to me that it would make sense for the Orioles maybe to move a bat for an arm. And then that would open something up for Couser perhaps. It's a favorite pastime of mine really to speculate on trades the Orioles will make

with teams that actually have pitching. Usually that conversation directs us to Miami and wondering why those two teams haven't made a trade like yesterday to balance each other out because they seem like they would line up really, really well. Other outfielders available. I'm going to list off several under 50% roster rates right now on CBS, and we're going to dig into the few that you think are the most interesting. Oscar Colas, who came up on the Tuesday show as well at 28%, he's back up for the White Sox. Will Benson sitting at 14% rostered, getting more opportunities in Cincinnati, playing really well over the last 30 days or so. Jose Siri, surprisingly under 30% rostered. I thought

that was a really low number because his defense keeps him in the lineup a lot. The power on a per-game basis is actually really good. So I think Siri's pretty interesting. Moniak and Adele, who came up earlier, they're both under 30% right now. Corey Jelks continues to get a lot of run for the Astros. It's kind of speed over power right now, but it's actually working really well for him. And then Dominic Fletcher, who we mentioned earlier, that's sort of like your core group of widely available outfielders. So I look at that group, and I want Colton Couser the most unless I'm clearly chasing power, in which case I think Siri jumps the top of the list.

I think there could even be a case for Siri straight up against Couser because Siri doesn't have those playing time concerns. Yeah, well, I mean, with the Rays, he won't necessarily start every game of every week. But yeah, long term, his outlook might be better than Couser's in terms of playing time. Will Benson, I mean, if you're going for power, I might favor him in this group. And then you mentioned Corey Jolks getting a lot of run.

I also wonder what the Astros roster is going to look like a few weeks from now. I could see them definitely making some moves and I don't know if that would be good or bad for Corey Jolks. So it's one of those players that I have a little bit more uncertainty about than the most. But I also wonder too, if Encarnacion Strand comes up, if that would affect Benson's playing time, but certainly not the way he's been hitting lately.

I don't think you have to worry about playing time for Oscar Colas. I would expect things to go much better this time around for him. So I guess there's some pretty interesting names there. Yeah, not a bad group at all if you're just trying to find an upgrade for that fourth or fifth outfield spot in a deeper league this weekend, if you're looking for those Rowdy Tellez

upgrades, those are a little harder to find. I was looking at some of the corners available. The two widely available guys are Derek Hall and Mike Ford. Tons of power. Ford's only 2% rostered on CBS right now. He's basically taken over the DH spot for the Mariners. I think that's actually kind of a toss-up between two guys that do very similar things. Then you've got Jose Miranda back up with the Twins and Garrett Cooper, who's always available

and always playing a little less than you want, but just enough where you can think about him in deeper leagues. I'm going to venture a guess that you'd probably be interested in both Hall and Ford ahead of Garrett Cooper, given all of Garrett Cooper's limitations that we've seen over the years. Well, you would guess wrong. Oh, no.

Cooper is, I mean, the thing is, like you said, a lot of times he's not playing as much as you think he should merit. But he is getting some run now. And he's forced his way into a more regular spot in the Marlins lineup hitting really well. Yeah. I mean, if you really need to pursue power over everything else, then it does come down to Hall and Ford and you might flip a coin there as to, I probably have a little bit of a preference for Hall, if nothing else, because of the home park. But in terms of the overall game, Cooper, you figure, could definitely hit for average. He gets on base and should

produce a lot of runs. So in the proverbial vacuum, I definitely would favor Cooper. Cooper has a nice projection at 264, 337, 428 the rest of the way. Eight homers projected for 59 games. That actually does play pretty well in deeper leagues. It's interesting that all of these guys actually project below Rowdy Tellez by the Bat-X. So sometimes the best move, by projection at least, is to not make a move. I just wonder if Rowdy's been dealing

with something more than inflammation given how far away from his usual levels of production he has been I think I would take a chance on on Ford of this bunch I think we've seen him in the past he's 31 years old now he's gonna be we just turned 31 last week or a few days ago we've seen big barrel rates in the past he's at a 16 barrel rate right now 18.9 a couple years ago during his brief time with the Yankees. He's just never had that clear runway for playing time. It's a strange profile because you'd expect him to either strike out less or walk more,

given some of the things he's done in the past. Projections say he's a batting average liability. I totally understand why. I think with Derek Hall, the appeal here is that Reese Hoskins' injury was a season-ending injury, so there's not a ton there to push him for playing time. I think he could be an everyday guy in a pretty good lineup. So I'm intrigued by both. I don't think you have to bid a lot for either one of them either. So I think that's the big part of the appeal with this entire group. They're very inexpensive ads in fab leagues. The middle infield seems pretty light this weekend.

Zach McKinstry is still out there in 21% of leagues. He plays all over, so I wanted to count him as a middle infielder because of how weak this group is. The player that I keep getting pulled back into every time I start to see shifts in playing time is Jordan Diaz as part of the A's lineup. I don't know why they won't commit to him for a larger role, given the current state of that roster. It seems like there's a better chance he's on their next good team than a lot of the older players they trot out there in front of him. And for that reason, I really wouldn't prioritize him, wouldn't prioritize Diaz. One player I would add here, and maybe he's absent because we've talked about him

in the last show or two previous to this one, but Nick Gonzalez. I think I really kind of overlooked what his value could be in fantasy. And you and I talked about this either last week or the week before when he got called up that the AAA numbers were not that great. The WRC plus I think was around 105 or something like that. Kind of moderate power. A lot of swing and miss. So there are definitely issues there, but he is playing a ton for the Pirates. He is both second base and shortstop eligible in most leagues. And I think I did underestimate the power because if you look at the AA numbers overall,

they're not very good. But he missed the middle of the season with an injury, came back and actually hit really well when he came back for that latter part of his time in double A, then came up to triple A and put up decent but not great numbers. And off to a pretty good start with the Pirates. the Pirates. So I think between the playing time that he's getting and maybe a little bit more power upside than I initially thought in a very, like I said, a very, very weak middle infield waiver cohort, Gonzalez kind of stands out for me. Yeah, he's been hitting sixth and seventh, mostly debuted back on June 23rd. He's only had, I think, two days out of the starting lineup in the time since then. So you are getting a more stable playing time floor with Gonzalez than Jordan Diaz by a pretty healthy margin. The other part of the Nick Gonzalez profile that is very hard to properly assess is the impact of the injuries that he has had as a minor leaguer.

Last year, he missed like two months with a heel injury. year he missed like two months with a heel injury it's just the kind of thing that if you start to put more context behind the underwhelming numbers in the minors you can start to see that maybe there is more ceiling there than what the production up to this point has revealed i'm a little surprised he hasn't been a better base stealer he's one for four at triple a he's over one so far in the big leagues. So I think that was part of his game once upon a time we thought was going to be there, especially knowing the new rules, like everybody could steal bases. Nick Gonzalez might not do that. It could be a little more average in power ahead of speed, which is a little different for a middle infielder,

but it certainly can work with the playing time that he is getting. Let's shift the focus over to the pitching side for a bit. I was surprised to see Alec Manoa is only available in about 20% of CBS leagues. The good news is he's already back in the big leagues. We'll get to see a start for him on Friday before we get to the weekend. And the last time Manoa pitched at AA was a lot better than what we saw in the Florida Complex League, which I thought was a sign that we weren't going to see him for several weeks. So he got back to the big leagues faster than expected. I'm curious, in the leagues where he's available,

what your interest level is going to be in Alec Manoa and just how much is riding on his return on Friday night in terms of shaping your interest? Yeah, well, you mentioned the roster rate. So most likely for me and for everybody listening, you'll be very lucky to find him in your 10 and 12-team leagues. And I would probably not be that interested there anyway, especially 12-team leagues.

But yeah, any 15-team league where Manoa is available, I'm definitely interested. The question is going to be, how much do we wait to start against the Tigers? Because it's the Tigers. So I think it's actually more an issue of if it doesn't go well, what do you do? And I think the thing is, if it doesn't go well, that's probably going to depress bidding. And I think you got not much to lose unless you're really having to cut somebody that you value to make room for Manoa.

But I think, you know, then you can put in a pretty low bid. And if it goes well, you know, I still think that's a good sign. You know, you can say what you want about the Tigers, but that's obviously a much, much tougher test than facing the AA lineup that he faced where he did so well. So I would definitely take that as encouraging if he did well in this next start back. Yeah, I think the more granular information too, aside from just the overall effectiveness, I want to see if the velocity and spin numbers are actually better than they have been throughout the season. Did he find something mechanically? Did the Jays and Manoa have some kind of tweak they're able to make that leads to his pitch mix just being more effective. I think that would also be something that nudges

me back in the direction toward being interested in the leagues where he's available. I picked him up, I think, two weeks ago in one 15-teamer where I just had a spot to burn. It was before the Florida Complex League start. I was going to cut him last weekend, and there was really nobody else to use that roster spot on. So I just ended up holding for another week, didn't expect him to actually come back this quickly. And now it's sort of a, oh, I get one free kick at the can, one free look at Alec Manoa before possibly dropping him this weekend if things don't go well. So I do have some interest in this. this weekend if things don't go well. So I do have some interest in this.

I do think the opponent makes it a little harder to properly assess, but we have enough tools where I'm confident we can make some kind of reasonable estimate of where he's at coming out of this next turn that we're going to see here on Friday night. Want visibly glowing skin in 14 days? With new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash, you can lather and glow. The 24-hour moisturizing body wash is infused with vitamin B3 complex and has notes of rose and cherry creme for a rich indulgent experience. Treat your senses with new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash. Buy it today at major retailers.

Some widely available pictures though, though, Al, that are somewhat interesting. This is a group of four that I think is tough to evaluate. Generally, these are guys we talk about because they're schedule-dependent on this show. I'm wondering if you had to rank these guys to be on your roster and in your lineup, let's say for at least 75% of their remaining starts,

who would you be most interested in? We've got Cutter Crawford, who is actually the most available at 16% rostered on CBS, Ryan Nelson, 29%, his teammate Tommy Henry at 38%, least available, and Graham Ashcraft, who probably has the biggest gap between his stuff numbers and Eno's model and the results. And the good news for Ashcraft is that the last couple of starts have been a pretty big step back in the right direction. I think for the Reds, if they're going to be a team that can win the NL Central and do anything in the postseason, they need to find some pitching within the group of players they have and probably trade for a starter or two. Health could be a factor, of course, with a bunch of those guys. But Ashcraft is sort of part of their, we found some pitching story, if they're going to do that in the weeks and months

ahead. So Crawford, Nelson, Henry, Ashcraft, how would you sort of stack them up against each other for the rest of the season? Yeah, well, you pointed out that Crawford's the most available. And to me, he is far and away at the top of the list. Just a great skills profile. It's a bit confusing as to why he's not more widely rostered. Maybe you can look to not always going deep into games still, you know, fairly recently having been stretched out, maybe a little bit of inconsistency, but I think he's got the best upside in the group.

And then after that, I would say Ashcraft, because I am very encouraged by the last couple of starts. I mean, he came back, got hammered by Atlanta, but you can forgive that for just about any pitcher. And then came back with two really solid starts and not just the results, but getting more ground balls, getting lower ground balls, which were the two main things I was looking for from Ashcraft. So I feel pretty good about him now. So I put him second on the list. And then that takes us to the two Diamondbacks pitchers. And in my TGFBI league, I picked up Ryan Nelson last weekend and I did it because I had to fill a spot due to injury, a pitcher slot. And it was kind of like hold my nose because I'm not, I don't really like what

I've seen from Ryan Nelson, but I thought, okay, he's been trending pretty well lately. He seems to be the best available option. This is kind of what we're talking about right now, looking at the best pitchers that are likely to be available. But it took a closer look and I think I don't think Tommy Henry is available, but I like him better as a streamer at home. He's got good results at home with 3.00 ERA, a Woba just under 300. He's been really good all year at limiting hard contact. So you think that would be a skill that would carry over into a variety of venues against a variety of opponents? It hasn't. He's been awful on the road, but at least there's some split you can point to and say, okay, I'm going to stream Tommy Henry for at least some of the better of his home starts. I'm not sure where I

would feel safe streaming Ryan Nelson at this point. Yeah. I think Henry versus Nelson is tough. It's like, I want to believe more in Nelson because I think the ceiling is higher, but floor matters. And I think Tommy Henry seems to execute locating his pitches more consistently than Nelson. If that's the ultimate difference between them. I think the interesting thing with Tommy Henry is that he's got the changeup working pretty good to get whiffs. He doesn't throw his slider a ton.

And where he throws it, I'm kind of surprised he gets as many swings and misses as he does. But he's got some stuff to work with. It's a lower velo sort of package. I'm a little concerned that he's down about a tick from where he was last year with the four seamer. The good news is he's got three other pitches he can use. So I think Tommy Henry is one of those guys that because of the low strikeout rate, because of the prospect appeal was pretty light the entire time he was in the minor leagues, he can kind of slip by under the radar,

but he's really more of a 15 team league and deeper sort of guy, or maybe a two-step guy I would use in a 12-team league. I don't think I want to push him into that shallow league conversation just yet. Kind of more of a watch list sort of guy for me in more shallow leagues. I would probably rank Henry ahead of Nelson at least for the next month, or to answer my own question, if I had to just use one kind of blindly for three quarters or more of his remaining starts. But I definitely prefer Ashcraft and Crawford to the two Arizona starters. I think Ashcraft is, for me, more likely to sustain a level of dominance than Crawford. But Crawford, for some reason, gets overlooked. I have no idea why people don't like him more. The pitch mix isn't bad. Job security shouldn't be a concern.

I mean, I think there's always a possibility that if the Red Sox are better in 2024, that someone like Cutter Crawford is the extra guy, the sixth starter, the multi-inning reliever, and then he starts when someone gets hurt, and he goes back to the bullpen when everyone's healthy. Their rotation is such a mess right now from an injury perspective. I don't see the end of the road for him as a starter coming up anytime in the near future. So you're getting a guy that limits walks, has a little bit of a home run issue. Because he doesn't walk a lot of guys, he can get away with the home runs, and he misses enough bats to actually be more consistent than someone like Tommy Henry.

I don't worry as much about Cutter Crawford in a tough matchup as I do about Tommy Henry in a tough matchup. Yeah. And I would add, since you brought up the Red Sox rotation, if we add Nick Pavetta to the mix, because he may make a start this weekend or, or at least a bulk relief appearance,

it's been very good in the bullpen. I'm not sure that we should wait that over years and years of giving up way too many home runs and not having very good ERAs. But I think I would trust him over either of the Arizona pitchers in the short run. And I should mention, since I brought up home road splits, the first three series for the Diamondbacks coming out of the All-Star break at Toronto, at Atlanta, at Cincinnati. Maddie. So this is truly, if I had to go with Henry over Nelson or anybody else, I'd really have to cross my fingers and hope for the best with that schedule. Yeah, that's a brutal stretch coming out of the break. So I think if he's still available, Crawford is a priority add along with Ashcraft. Henry and Nelson, that schedule probably keeps you away in most circumstances. If Manoa's

available, do you still, we haven't seen the Friday start yet. Do you want Manoa ahead of that entire group or would you actually put Manoa maybe above the Arizona guys, but below both Ashcraft and Crawford the rest of the way? Above the Arizona guys, above Pavetta. And for the time being below Crawford and Ashcraft. Okay. But pending's start, maybe. Pending the start. Okay, that's fair.

So the other question I wanted to ask today, just because we're at that funny point in the season with the shortened week, which players with ugly stats so far are you targeting in trades in the near future? Let's start on the pitching side. If you're going out and looking at possible starters to try and trade for, which starting pitchers are you most interested in? Well, I definitely should mention Sandy Alcantara.

I've written about him. I actually did trade for him recently in your league, Maki. So I think it still holds because when I wrote about him and then when I traded for him, the thinking was that the thinking was that the peripheral stats are not, they're a little down from last year, but you know, from a Cy Young season, some regressions to be expected, but it's not a big difference,

not to the degree that it's showing up in the, in the fantasy stats. So I still think that Alcantara is close enough to where he was last year that he year that he continues to be a good buy low candidate. And the other target that I'll be looking at in the coming days and weeks is Freddy Peralta, who sort of like with Sandy Alcantara, the skills profile may be not quite at peak levels, but still pretty close. And the problem that Peralta's really had this year is home runs, but the barrel rate has been dropping over his last several starts. So I'm thinking that second half Freddie Peralta is going to be more like the Freddie Peralta that we've seen from the previous couple seasons. Yeah, Velo ticked up in that start yesterday. It's been great all season.

Eno and I are in on Peralta as well. I think he might be our show pick for the pitcher that everyone wants to go get. And compared to Sandy, probably not going to cost quite as much if you trade either. I think whoever has Sandy Alcantara is still going to want a lot, even if it's a lot less than they would have got back in April had they traded him then. That'd be weird to draft him in March, trade him in April. But hey, everyone's needs are a little bit different. I was going to throw Luis Severino into this conversation. I mean, he has been an absolute mess.

I think when you look at where the fastball location has been, that explains a lot about why his home runs have been through the roof so far this year. It's unbelievable how bad Luis Severino has been. I don't think he's lost anything in terms of the pitch mix. I think the fastball velo is still really good. The slider is still good. The changeup is just sort of there as an extra pitch. He's added a cutter.

That should get more weak contact for him. I think this pitch mix can work. I am stunned that he's got a K rate under 20% so far this year. I wonder if he's one of the guys that maybe has been a victim of some, some pitch tipping or the, you know, the limb tracking stuff that's been going around. And,

you know, talked about that a few weeks ago, you know, some of the, uh, the ways that teams have been using tech to sort of help identify pitches that opposing pitchers are throwing. So I have no other explanation.

Otherwise, like you can't be as good as Luis Severino has been for as long and then just flip a switch and be this bad without a loss in Viglo or a pitch that simply doesn't work. And I think I'm attributing the fastball command. So Luis Severino with a 738 ERA and a 180 whip is actually someone I'm trying to trade for in leagues right now because I think the second half should be a lot better. Projections are even starting to sour on him quite a bit relative to where they were going into the year, too.

The bat has a 466 ERA and a 135 whip. That's the most pessimistic projection. If you want to be an optimist, Zips has him at a 420 with a 121 the rest of the way and getting some of those strikeouts back as well. So I think better days are ahead for Severino. I'm cautiously optimistic that having some downtime around the All-Star break might enable him and the Yankees to step back and try and figure out why things are going so poorly for him to this point in the season. Let's talk about a few targets on the hitter side, Al. Who do you see as a good combination of players to consider going after right now via trade

in that group? Well, I thought of like a few players who I think could have big power second halves. Kyle Schwarber, I just, this is not the, you know, going to be the, the, the greatest analytics, uh, the greatest analysis, but, uh, there's just always a period. And it seems like late in the season where he just can't, you know, can't be contained, uh, where he just, uh, goes on a power binge. And it's not that he's been without power so far from, you know, he's had a pretty Kyle Schwarber like year in that regard. Yeah.

The batting averages have been bad. You figure the batting average is going to be bad, but I think it's going to be better. So I think you could probably, if somebody's going to trade him at current season value, I think that you could wind up getting a good, good return. Cause I do think that, you know, he could hit two 20 to 30 the rest of the way instead of one 90 with,

with possibly more, more power so and just uh I know somebody wanted to talk about with Giancarlo Stanton kind of a similar thing there just streaky hitters that um you know I think are both due for for a big streak I think Willie Adamas he's he's been showing the power but I think he's due for a positive batting average correction. Lars Neupahr hasn't really been himself, been hitting a lot of ground balls, but that has been changing recently. So I think now is the time maybe to target Neupahr in a trade before that change becomes more entrenched and more noticeable. And I would say, you know,

kind of like the analogy to your Luis Severino, like somebody that maybe you really could get at a deep discount. Jose Abreu, who I think, you know, I was reading things in May that, you know, people were just saying he's done. And he's not. He's not. He had a very good June. He's hitting with a lot of power again after hitting with virtually no power the first two months of the season. So I think, and again, that's one you're probably going to have to move quickly and maybe the window is closed in certain leagues. But I think if you can find somebody who still feels like they're saddled with Jose Abreu and there's no hope, I think you'd get a very good

version of him in the second half. Yeah. I wish I had the clip, but I remember I was watching an Astros game recently and they were talking about extra work that Abreu had put in with the hitting coach, and it was in the midst of this turnaround in June. The power actually has been there, like you said. I'm surprised more people haven't jumped on this. I think it's always tough because Abreu started to fade in the second half of last year. But his overall track record as a hitter is one where you just, you wouldn't have expected it to fall off as quickly as it did. I think that's part of why I'm willing to buy back in that he's made some adjustments to get back on track. I mean, the K rate's still not bad for the season.

The barrel rate with the recent surge up to almost 7%. He was at 9.5% last year. I think you could probably pencil him in for another 10, 12 homers the rest of the way. And as that Astros lineup potentially gets healthier, you know, with Jordan coming back, hopefully the Altuve injury is not bad, the possible upgrades, the deadline, those counting stats might be surprisingly good. I think there's a common threat actually across this entire group of players. I mean, Willie Adames to me is a great player to go after too. I put Javier Baez in my list just as kind of like a throw-in type player. The reason being, I think some of these guys who have underperformed, despite being as bad as

they've been, they're going to keep playing. They're going to get the benefit of a high, high volume of playing time. That goes a long way toward being able to break out of the slump or even just racking up decent run scored and RBI totals just by being there. Even as a 80 WRC plus player, if you play every single day, that gives you an edge over guys who play less that have better skills. So he buys us in year two of a six year deal. We know he can hit for some power. We know he's got some speed. Yes, there's a batting average concern, but to me, he's an easy player to go after just because you know he's not going to lose his job.

Many bad hitters lose their jobs, but guys like Baez don't. Stanton is another name. You mentioned him in passing. I think it's a lot like Kyle Schwarber. The types of batted balls he hits will also be a limiting factor in his batting average, but he still hits the ball ridiculously hard. The Yankees could be a little healthier in their lineup in the second half as well, so his counting stats could be pretty solid to go along with it. I mean, we know what the limitations are at this point,

but it just seems like people continue to bury a guy that still actually has something left in the tank. We talked about Tim Anderson on this show like a month ago. I'm still out. I'm just worried about him from a physical perspective. Otherwise, he would be part of this conversation. The other guy that's been, I think, pretty bad so far that I can't really explain it is MJ Melendez. I liked him quite a bit coming into the season. A big part of the appeal for me was that he was going to be a catcher-eligible player with more playing time than most catchers.

And that part's at least held up 334 plate appearances so far on the season the royals have absolutely no reason to send him back down to triple a he spent about 65 games there split over two seasons i just don't think he's going to learn how to hit big league pitching by facing lesser pitching so if they were to send him down i don't think it'd be, you know, a month long thing. I think it'd be like a two week thing just to get his confidence back, but he's actually hitting the barrel just as often as he did last year, 11.1% barrel rate.

I think this is the same guy we saw a year ago, just with some incredibly bad luck. And I think if you look at the slash line, he's projected to give you the rest of the way compared to what he's done so far. It reminds me of that Taylor Ward difference where you see like 30 to 40 more points in batting average 100 more points than slugging it just doesn't make sense that mj melendez has struggled this much so i think if you're looking for help behind the plate looking for that cheap power

i'm still a believer in mj melendez he makes sense as someone to trade for in a keeper dynasty league right now if you're trying to play for the future, even if you're not, I think you can be playing for now and MJ Melendez could make you better. And you may have someone in your league who's actually willing to move on because the batting average has been so low through his first 200 or so games in the big leagues. This is a 213, 304, 370 line through 210 big league games. But I think there's still a lot of untapped potential here in this bat yeah it doesn't make a lot of sense uh those those numbers for melinda so i i like that and you know the javier bias uh call i like that too uh it's just puzzling how he's fallen off the map

since coming over to the tigers but it just he's just not so far removed from much better production that i just wouldn't be surprised if he figured something out in the second half. Going back to Giancarlo Stanton for a minute, just because I want to highlight his projection. His rest of season projection from the Bat-X is 259, 337, 530. That is an absurd slash line. If he even gets 80% of the way there, you're going to be happy with him. And I just don't think there's a whole lot of folks out there who are demanding a lot back in return because of the injury concerns. Obviously missed time last year and missed a ton of time in the first half.

But a big second half from Giancarlo Stanton could actually be on the horizon because the contact quality is still there. The barrel rate is still up at 14.9%. He's not chasing pitches outside the zone any more than he has in the past. That's right in line with his career norms. It looks like the thing that he does best is still a part of his skill set, even at age 33. Definitely a good masher to go after if you're trying to chase some power here. You know he's capable of having a run where he hits a dozen home runs in 30 days, and you reap the benefits of that. You climb the standings really quickly when you have a player go on a heater like that. We are going to sign off on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month

for the first year at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. You can check out Al's waiver column. That is up on the site already. I'm going to be out for a little while. The good news is Al's going to fill in. Welsh is going to fill in. The show will go on. I'm gone for about 10 days, moving back across the country,

if you missed the news, back to Wisconsin. So excited about that. But that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday.