Rates & Barrels - Million Dollar Musical Chairs

Episode Date: December 4, 2019

Rundown4:06 Urías-Grisham Trade16:25 Profar to San Diego20:05 Grandal Joins Rising White Sox27:39 Do Moose Eat Cincinnati Chili?31:09 Non-Tender Fallout57:41 Beefed Up Bullpens68:40 Beer of the WeekFollow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRipere-mail: [e-mail] Get 40% off a subscription to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's a two-tap checkout system. That's Eno-friendly, folks. The GameTime app is simple, quick, and easy to navigate. Download the GameTime app in the Google Play or App Store and score last-minute deals on tickets up to 60% off. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode number 56. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. Things are happening around Major League Baseball. There are players being traded. There are signings happening. We're here to break all of that down in the wake of Monday's non-tender deadline. A bunch of other players became free agents when that passed as well. We do have some show-related news to pass along. You may be listening to us for the first time on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, pretty much anywhere you want to listen to podcasts. Now, if you're enjoying this show on a platform that allows you to rate and review the show, please take the time to do that.

We would greatly appreciate it. It helps new people find our podcast. And if you are listening to the show for the first time and you're not a subscriber to The Athletic, you can get 40% off a subscription at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. So, tons to talk about this week, Eno. It's kind of a nice little bounty of things to break down after a big eating week last week with Thanksgiving. That's right. That's right.

And unfortunately, I did not go home with any leftovers. So I didn't get to do any leftover sandwiches. But I found out this Thanksgiving that it's my house in perpetuity after this. So I am the new family Thanksgiving host. And so I will have all the leftovers going forward. That's awesome. I recommend the spatchcocking technique for cooking your turkey to avoid the drying out. It's a nice little technique.

Definitely the spatchcocking. You have to. That's the correct way to cook anything. Mm-hmm. Yep. And it also grosses the kids out when I rip that neck out. There's a Bob's Burgers that I saw in the last couple of days where Bob, of course, spatchcocks a turkey.

And after he breaks the breastbone, the ribs, whatever it is, he just sends some flying across the room. It's classic. It's amazing. But yeah, it's a good technique. It feels pretty dirty and the kids are horrified, but it definitely works. It's definitely the best way to do it. In fact, I did a Thanksgiving a couple years ago where I did a sous vide turkey and a spatchcock

turkey and the taste test went 100% to spatchcock. That's awesome. I'm really happy to hear that you've done the test and you've proven what I believe to be true. Let's talk about some of the big moves that have happened over the last couple of weeks. Last week, we had a special episode. We took a look back at the all-decade fantasy baseball team from 2010 to 2019. So there are some things that happened that would have been in that episode had we not gone that route.

Let's start with the big trade that actually happened on Thanksgiving Eve a week ago Wednesday. The San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers hooked up on a big deal. Trent Grisham and Zach Davies went to San Diego. Luis Urias and Eric Lauer went to Milwaukee. And it seems like the Brewers, either players that have been on that team recently or just on that team literally two months ago, have been kind of in the thick of all the early activity in one way or another. This seemed like a pretty interesting challenge sort of trade. I know there's some financial flexibility opened up for the Brewers with Davies going to San Diego and Lauer being a min-salary player.

But Grisham for Urias, I mean, this is a trade that in terms of young players and how they were valued this time last year, we probably couldn't have seen those two guys get swapped for each other one for one. So it's pretty fascinating to see them get swapped for each other just a week ago. get swapped for each other just a week ago yeah and uh it's uh it's kind of eerie how close their batted ball stats are uh neither one hits the ball with average oomph in terms of exit velocity in fact they have the exact same exit velocity did you did you point that out to me? Yeah, well, the Padres replaced Urias with another trade. They made a deal for Jerks and Profar. Profar and Urias have the exact same average exit velocity, and Trent Grisham was at 87.6, so he's within a mile per hour of those two guys. So even though, you know, we saw Urias and Grisham hit a ton of home

runs in the minors in 2019, they were not hitting the ball very hard during their time in the big leagues. And so you kind of have to like look around the exit velocity for their player value. And in terms of, you terms of what they can do, Urias is, when it comes to stuff other than hitting the ball hard, Urias is superlative, is better than Grisham in terms of he can play on the middle infield. Our own Emily Walden wanted to point out

that she thinks he's a second baseman. And I can hear that. But I think for the Brewers, he's their shortstop. And so he plays, at least he has more defensive value than Grisham. And he also makes more contact than Grisham. And, you know, maybe in terms of patience, Grisham is a little bit out in front. you know, maybe in terms of patience, Grisham is a little bit out in front. And in terms of team fit, might have made sense for the Padres to acquire an outfielder.

Because even though they had a ton of outfielders, Grisham is now the only outfielder that they've had in the last two years that is projected next year to be league average. So it seemed like they had a lot of outfielders. But if you start looking through them, you're like, eh, hmm, eh, what? So I'll let you decide who the what is. In a weird way, both teams are going to play these guys at the very top of their possibilities, at first at least. So Grisham probably is a corner outfielder later. Maybe he can play center for now. Urias is probably a second baseman later, but he'll be a shortstop for now. What's also interesting is they're both projected to be two-win players next year.

They're both projected to be league average players next year. They're both projected to be league average players next year. So in terms of projection, in terms of ease of fit for each team, in terms of what they do, in terms of exit velocity, they're very equal. But I think that there's going to be a clear winner for this trade in two or three years. And it's not going to have anything to do with the pitchers. It's going to be that one of these batters busts and the other doesn't. I mean, it's possible that both succeed, but Grisham goes into one of the most difficult places for a left-handed hitter to hit for power. Grisham has shown in the past that he can go the opposite way.

When he first came up, like his first couple minor league seasons, he was probably going the other way too much and not getting to enough power. If you look at the pull rate that's gone up as the power has gone up so he may have to kind of find a happy medium between the player he was in the upper levels of the minors and what he was at the lower levels of the minors in order to be an ideal fit in san diego but i agree with what you said about that outfield 100% because they've had a crowd. No one in there projects to have a particularly high OBP other than Grisham.

That was a major flaw. You can't have a bunch of 240, 290, 440 outfielders that are questionable defenders. That's not going to work. And I think they realized that. So with Urias, maybe they sold low. Maybe they see something in him that they don't think they can fix. Maybe they see a player that's just not going to hit that future 65 hit tool expectation. But it could be the kind of thing where a change of scenery for both players ends up being a good thing. And Grisham, you and I talked about it on the Brewers podcast after the season ended. The unfortunate ending to his season was the error in the NL wildcard game. In a weird way, I'm just happy for him that he doesn't have to carry that around with him in Milwaukee for the next few years.

Because I feel like that was going to hang over his head until there was some opportunity for him to have a bigger moment and come through. And that just may have never happened. So getting a fresh start for him seems like a good idea. The pitching, Zach Davies, from a fantasy perspective, is a guy that I would trust a lot more in San Diego than I ever trusted him in Milwaukee, just because he doesn't miss a lot of bats and balls in play in San Diego

aren't going to get punished quite the same way. He's worried about home runs there. That's very clear as well. But Eric Lauer probably ends up doing a lot of the same things, like the not as worried about home runs there. That's very clear as well. But Eric Lauer probably ends up doing a lot of the same things. The concerns you have about him going into Miller Park are kind of like the ones we used to have with Davies while he was there. The difference is Lauer at least has the ability to miss a few more bats. So I'm a bit curious to just see what kinds of adjustments the Brewers make, if any, to Eric Lauer's arsenal. Yeah, it's weird to me, though, because when I just look at the numbers

and the movements and the velocities of their pitches, I'll take Zach Davey's pitches over Eric Lauer's. The main thing that Davey's is missing is velocity. But in terms of shape and the way these pitches look and his command of them, I'll take Davey's over Lauer any day. And actually, when I look and his command of them, I'll take Davies over Lauer any day. And actually, when I look through Lauer's pitches, I don't see a single pitch that stands out to me.

The only thing that I think that Lauer has done well and the way that he's missed these bats is that he's thrown his fastball high in the zone, which is fine. It's great. It's led to a lot of breakouts. It's led to a lot of more strikeouts. It's a big part of how the Reds have revamped their pitching staff. But the problem is it comes with home runs. And it doesn't depend, it doesn't have like sort of a compliment where it's like, oh, and he also throws a really awesome slider low in the zone. I don't like his breaking stuff. He has an okay cutter. He has a poor curveball.

He has a mass slider. He's kind of one of these three breaking pitch guys where none of the breaking pitches are that good. The fastball doesn't go that fast, but he throws it high in the zone and he gets a lot of whiffs there, but he also gives up a fair amount of homers there and that can only go up. To me, Eric Lauer is not interesting.

I think that his best asset was more years of control than Zach Davies and less money. And so that part, I think both are marginal fantasy players. I don't think I'd really want either. Maybe Davies on a deep league team. But in terms of fantasy and in terms of real life, I think this is all going to hinge on if Urias can pair the power with the good strikeout rate, or at least find himself as a hitter. Is he going to be the power hitter that strikes out 22% of the

time? Or is he going to be the more Placido Polanco-esque player that strikes out 14% of the time, but gets on base a ton and has a single and double stroke. So, you know, I don't know. He's got to find his way. Grisham, to me, is a little bit more just like a pretty good player. And so I see his ceiling is lower than Urias, but his floor is higher. And so that's why I generally like it for the Padres. But I do think that it almost doesn't matter what we say now. It's all on

Grisham and Urias, and they're going to sort of prove us right or wrong in the future. Yeah, and the thing that really does jump off the page for Urias in 2019 is that the ground ball rate dropped a lot. When he started off in the Padres system, that ground ball percentage was up in the 60s. Every year up up until 2016 got down to the 50s for 2016 and 2017 that brought him through double a and he got that number down to 37.9 percent in the pcl last season hit 19 home runs in 73 games we know el paso and the pcl and last year in particular with the major league ball being used at AAA was an extremely hitter-friendly environment. But I think it's encouraging when you consider he's been young for his level at every single stop, was still just 22 years old after turning 22 in June last season, and put up monster numbers.

There's the potential, I still think, for Urias to be a star. And I think he'll be good enough at short where it'll work. It's going to be a lot like the trade the Brewers made earlier in the decade. They made that deal to get Gene Segura. I think that was the trade that sent Zach Greinke out of Milwaukee. But Gene Segura coming through the Angels system was this guy that some people thought he could play shortstop. A lot of people saw him more as a second baseman. And he's ended up being at least a decent

shortstop for most of his time in the big leagues. I think that's probably what we're looking at in terms of Urias' defense, and now the potential payoff for him as a hitter is even greater with the move into Miller Park. Yeah, I think in terms of fantasy, he's definitely the one.

Probably going to be a little bit more expensive than grisham though yeah it's gonna it's gonna be kind of interesting because people were starting to warm up to grisham before the trade thinking about how much he might play spelling cane and spelling ryan braun maybe seeing some ryan braun at first base this year uh playing time goes up situation gets a little more difficult though in terms of a park factor so maybe it's a net wash like maybe the counting stats end up being a little better because he's playing every single day instead of being more like a fourth outfielder with a little more playing

time the typical bench outfielder yeah i still i think he's a starter and in fact i think that there's a little bit of an opportunity to game the system here because I'm seeing the depth charts are putting him at under 500 plate appearances. And I just don't see the Padres making this deal and making him a part-timer. Like I said, he's the best projected outfielder out there. And there's still a lot of time left, so maybe this depth chart will change in the future. But I'd play Grisham over every outfielder they've got. Right now, they have Franchi Cordero as 51% in center field. I get that he's a left-handed hitter that has played center field,

but he's projected to be 26% worse than league average with the bat. He's projected to have a 284 OBP and just be exactly what you were talking about. You know, a 240 hitter, 290 OBP, maybe the power comes through, but he's projected to be below replacement. So I understand projections aren't gospel, of course. Franchi has shown power, and the power is not really in the projection. It's kind of a league average power situation. There's definitely more upside than that. I guess my larger point is I look at all those names, and Grisham is the only one I want.

Let's talk about another new Padre real quick. Jerickson Profar gets acquired in a separate deal just a couple days ago. Austin Allen, a catcher, first baseman, kind of a tweener defensively speaking, goes to Oakland. And the more you look at Austin Allen's profile, the more you're going to see that he's kind of a perfect fit in Oakland as a guy that will probably get 200, 250 plate appearances and provide cheap

power. So maybe more of a two catcher league sort of guy, but Profar in San Diego. I mean, is there any reason to believe that he can bounce back after a disappointing 2019? This is going to be his third team in as many seasons. Clearly a guy that AJ Preller is familiar with since Preller was in Texas when Profar initially signed there. But back-to-back 20 home run seasons doesn't seem disappointing on the surface, but 218-301-410 was the slash line last year from Profar in Oakland. Yeah, a lot of it was built on a poor beginning of the season. If you look at Profar from May 3rd on, he hit, yes, 233 still,

but the Babbitt wasn't as bad. And he had 18 of his 20 homers after May 3rd. So the power came on afterwards. And, you know, the real nice thing about it was it was above average that way. The bad thing about Profar

is just that he's not going to hit the ball hard. So I don't believe in much more. I don't believe in actually the power that he's demonstrated in Texas in 2018. So I think that 20 is the cap on his homer total. I think probably 7 to 8 is a cap on a stolen bases because his wheels are declining. is a cap on a stolen bases because his wheels are declining. And what he does do, it's kind of like Urias in a way where he doesn't hit the ball hard, but he is going to be patient and he is going to make a lot of contact. And I think probably there's a little bit more certainty about his floor

than Urias. And, you know, they also got an asset in Grisham by trading Urias. So I think they thought those two things through in tandem, replacing Urias with Profar and, you know, reuniting Profar with Jace Tingler and A.J. Preller, the guys that signed him in Texas. It may actually be a comfort situation. If you think about what happened with Sonny Gray last year, part of what the Cincinnati Reds did was they said,

hey, we're going to take you here. We're going to take your college pitching coach and we're going to take a college teammate of yours and make him your assistant pitching coach. And we're going to have you start throwing in Vanderbilt, your old college. And that's how we're going to make you feel super comfortable and we're going to think about how comfortable you are. So in a way, I think that the, even though it might sound like mumbo jumbo to some returning home to Tingler and pro Tingler and Preller for profile might

actually be a big deal, but like, I just don't see the upside. Like I, his expat expected batting average last year was two 50. I expect him to hit two was 250 I expect him to hit 250 I expect him to do his projections I don't really have any reason to quabble with those projections 250 18 homers seven stolen bases deep league second baseman uh decent player league average kind of guy but not very exciting yeah so like in a 15 team mixed league a guy you can take around or just after pick 200 and you know he's going to play a lot so you're feeling okay about him there but there's not another level coming like the the days of expecting more from jerks and pro far are over and sometimes that makes a player undervalued

in fantasy you know when that ceiling seems to have gone away people see an accumulator and they just brush them aside and and they get downgraded too much in some instances. Some other big moves, though. Yasmany Grandal gone from the Brewers. Mike Moustakis gone from the Brewers. Yaz goes to the White Sox, gets a four-year deal. I think we talked about the White Sox a couple weeks ago, Eno, as a team that if they want to start spending money

and they want to add a few pieces to address their needs in free agency, the AL Central is one of those divisions where you can make up a lot of ground very quickly. We saw the Twins do it last year. Grandal looks like step one in part of a multi-step free agent plan to turn things around on the south side of Chicago. Yeah, and this framing value should have some effect on their pitchers. So maybe it'll help Giolito keep from regressing too hard in the walks category. Maybe it'll help one of their young pitchers emerge. And also, you know, I do think that he's a really good hitter.

The one thing I wrote about in the thing is that framing can fall off a cliff right around his age. Right around 32, framing starts to really age poorly. So, uh, you know, there is some chance that he ends this deal at first base, but I think it's one of those deals where he catches enough that he's a catcher for four years. Uh, he's been either the best or second best catcher in the last couple of years. When you add in framing, I think from a batting perspective, he's probably sort of like a third or fourth best catcher the last couple years when you add in framing i think from a batting perspective he's probably sort of like a third or fourth best catcher but i imagine that'll stay the same uh for the next year or two um that part of his game shouldn't age that badly i mean he has patience he has pop he doesn't strike out uh 30 of the time so um generally a big fan of that move

uh but i did want to sort of point out that part of why people maybe didn't want to give him four years is that framing as a skill ages a little bit poorly after 32 years old. It still just baffles me that he couldn't get this exact same deal a year ago. And now he gets it in 2019, flipping the calendar to 2020. But relative to the contract the Reds gave Mike Moustakis, 4-for-64, I'd rather make that commitment to Grandal. I think his skill set, even with those concerns about how framing might age, especially for an AL team, is actually the better long-term investment. Maybe part of that's the OBP factor as well, knowing that Grandal has become a player that takes a ton of walks. And even if you have to use him a lot as a first base or DH more likely down the road in the back part of that contract, he can still be at least average, if not a tick above with the bat near the end of that deal.

Yes, I do think that's true. And if he can manage to be, you know, five, six, seven percent better than league average near the end of the deal, he'll still be an average first baseman. So yeah, I don't hate on the deal. I like it better than the Jose Abreu deal. But the Abreu deal, I think, is a little bit more about the state of that clubhouse, him being an elder statesman that everyone respects, the kind of metronome type production he provides at the plate, possibly presaging a move to being the DH in the future, but also sort of just keeping those young players happy and engaged and with a leader. I mean, what I've found in the past is that leadership has to come from a position player. The position players and the pitchers just live separate lives. And so when you have a pitcher that plays every five days, a starting pitcher, as your most expensive player and your de facto leader,

it becomes awkward when he's not there because he's in the training room or he's that or this. he's in the training room or he's that or this, but a guy like Abreu can, can, can function as a figurehead and can, uh, can be that, uh, that leader. So, uh, I know that it's, uh, it was a bit much for him, but in terms of the White Sox remaining the White Sox, um, I think that it was important, but you know, for them, I think they're still searching for a center fielder. You know, I don't know if you think that Robert is a center center fielder i think he could be at least for now and if you don't really like the way the defense is and that's something that's holding you back you could always acquire a defensive center fielder move him to a corner shift things around i mean i think whether or not they add a multi-year solution in right will say a lot about how much they trust him in center field.

Because if they go out and get Marcelo Zuna or Nick Castellanos to fill that spot, that to me says, okay, Luis Roberts, the guy in center field for the next three years or whatever the life of that deal is, because things are going to be crowded at first base in DH between Grandal, Abreu, Andrew Vaughn coming up. But you go around this depth chart. Grandal, Abreu, Nick Madrigal, Moncada, Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn joining the mix at DH eventually where Zach Collins, James McCann, a bunch of guys are going to rotate that spot now. Eloy, Robert, and then whatever they do in right field, that's a really good group of position players. Giolito had that breakout last year. Ronaldo Lopez still has good stuff, even though he hasn't put it all together.

But maybe Grandal helps him along. Dylan Cease, good stuff, bad results. Michael Kopech's healthy. There's quite a bit to get excited about. And they're linked to Zach Wheeler, too. If the White Sox were to go out and get Zach Wheeler and a corner outfielder, they become very interesting not only for the next few years, but immediately

in 2020. And they're already kind of trending towards being a wildcard contender as constructed. You know what's an interesting name that I just thought of is Shogo Akiyama. Because they're pretty right-handed heavy. Eloy, Robert, Anderson, who else they're pretty right-handed heavy. Eloy, Robert, Anderson.

Who else is righty? I mean, the only lefty is Zach Collins. A couple switch hitters with Grandal and Mankata. But yeah, the only true lefty is Collins. He's pretty right-handed heavy. Shogo is, some people say, maybe not a center fielder, but he's a lefty, and he gets on base. So he kind of adds to the top of your lineup and he eases some of that risk of not wanting to play Robert in center maybe.

And you could have a cheaper situation where you have Shogo and Engel in a platoon in center. Go with Robert and Eloy on the corners and spend $100 million on Wheeler. Yeah, that might be the way to do it as opposed to spending more for an Ozuna or a Nick Castellanos. And then you have to move some of your failed starting pitcher types into the bullpen, find somebody there, hopefully have some pop-up relievers come up. One thing that I do not trust,

even though Eloy and Robert and Anderson seem to have come up through their system and worked out, I do not necessarily trust their pitching development plan. I know they have some good coaches there, and so I don't want to disparage the coaches, but I also know that they're generally not on the forefront when it comes to player development, tech, using pitch design to improve their pitches. Giolito had to go outside of the organization to get where he is.

So I do want for them a better pitching strategy. want for them a better pitching strategy like something you know even radical like what the reds did with just basically importing all of driveline uh they they may need to do something like that but there are a couple good coaches in their system that i've got my eye on um and i think they can maybe get there in terms of personnel they're really really close so that's that's exciting what was the other big deal that we were putting up against Grundahl? Moustakis. He gets four for 64 from the Reds, which is good for him. I'm happy for players getting paid. I try to make that as clear as possible. I'm trying to view teams and view roster construction the way that current front offices view it,

while still rooting for players to do well when they get the opportunity to do well. If it's possible for those two things to happen, that's where I'm trying to live. Mike Moustakis is going to play second base for the Reds. He played it and was fine there for the Brewers. He's a weird player to commit four years to at this point. And again, this is a player who was beat up in free agency, relatively speaking, in each of the last two off seasons. Now he's finally getting what he probably deserved two years ago.

And the Reds, I think, are going to get left holding the bag later in the contract. But they're pushing chips in right now, too. And when teams are trying to be competitive, we should celebrate that. But how do you see things kind of fitting for Moustakis in the short term? I saw Mike Petriello put that graphic up yesterday on Twitter, yesterday being Monday. And apparently Moustakis would have hit five more home runs playing half of his games or all of his games. I think that example might have been in Cincinnati a year ago. So it would have been even better fit for him than Miller Park, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game.

Yeah. I mean, I think most likely is he just sort of holds steady in terms of power. And in fact, you know, I think that maybe we disparage his defense too much. I've seen a lot of people say he's not a very good defender, but, you know, he's been a positive defender in seven out of nine seasons. That's pretty good. good yeah and in terms of just theoretically uh second base and third base is supposed to be equally difficult now i know that doesn't mean that's theoretically and not necessarily in practice because i think they do require slightly different skills in terms of lateral quickness and arm strength. However, with the way that we treat shifting these days, I feel like Moustakas, you know,

maybe lateral quickness isn't as important at second base. And if you're worried about him on the turn, you know, since teams are shifting 50, 60% of the time, just don't make him the guy that would have to make the turn. You know, because when you're shifting, you're putting all these people in different places. You could put Suarez at short and Galvez on the other side of second base, and those two become your double play duo.

So I think that they can mask Moustakas' defensive shortcomings at second base. I think they can make itakis's defensive shortcomings in at second base i think they can make it work i think the power will work uh mustakis has a lot in common with justin turner in terms of making contact making powerful contact being there every year year after year in terms of uh of those things um but at the same time when you you look at projected wins and how much they paid, they did pay about $8 million per win, which is the kind of stuff that teams have been doing for Harper and Machado and Stars, so four-plus win guys. And he's more like a three-minus win guy. He's more like a three minus win guy. So I think that's where everyone's difficulty is in sort of looking at those numbers and saying,

does that fit with that kind of player? Because once you get into two win guys, those guys absolutely do not get $8 million a year anymore. And you can just see it by all the non-tenders. Kevin Pillar, projected to be close to a two win player, was going to make $9 million, cut. Domingo Santana, sort of a 1.2 type win player, was going to make $4 million, cut. So if you are a one to two-win player, you're going to get $4 or $5 million per year.

If you're a four-win player or higher, sort of Anthony Rendon and Garrett Cole, you're going to get your $8 million per win. I think there's not that many people that are in between the two groups, so we don't always know how to appraise them. Well, I think it comes down to teams thinking they can fix a small flaw with a player at the bottom end of the scale, buy that player at a discount, $2 million, $3 million for a year on a one-year deal, maybe less than five in some cases, whatever, something in that range. And you make a tweak, and you can turn that player into a two or two and a half win player. But you don't know how sustainable that's going to be, so you don't want to make a long-term

commitment, and you don't have to make the long-term commitment. So it's just, again, thinking about how teams are trying to view the player pool. So yeah, we're seeing a stars and scrubs approach by a lot of front offices with roster construction. Like when we have a fantasy baseball auction, there are players that go for a dollar or two who are projected to be worth

seven or eight dollars. It's because we're going to spend more at the top of the pool. We're going to spend 55 to get $47 Mike Trout, because spending the eight extra dollars to lock in those 47 is well worth it, knowing that there's going to be a bunch of $7 guys available for $1 or $2 in the endgame. Yeah. And I like to leave myself $2 per slot at the end so that I can get all those $1 that are actually worth $8 and get everybody that I want.

And that does sometimes take me out of some of the very top guys. And that's a decision I've made. But, you know, in terms of what's happening in actual baseball, I think it's much more closer to Stars and Scrubs. And I think Philip Irvin is an interesting example because we're looking at Philip Irvin as a guy who's going to be basically the fourth outfielder in Cincinnati. And he's a 40 future value guy, which is not a top 100, not even a top 200 type guy. He's a 40 future value guy in fan graphs. And yet he's been worth half a win basically per year in the last two years in limited playing time. So I think that suggests the teams can feel like, I have a Philip Irvin.

I don't need to pay Domingo Santana $4 million. I've got a Philip Irvin who can come up and do pretty much the same thing for $500,000 and save me $4 million. So yeah, I think it's a little bit part player development, a little bit part just being cheap. And also, you push all of these non-tenders out onto the market, they become free agents, and the free agent market has already been sort of throttled. So you put them out on this free agent market, and it's cheaper to acquire

them. So there's a cynical way of looking at this, and there's just a sort of structural way of looking at it. But either way, I do think that most of these non-tenders are going to get jobs. And it may end up good for them to change organization, get a new coaching voice, get a new opportunity, play somewhere where they'll play full-time. But it is also interesting that, for example, the Baltimore Orioles really didn't need Jonathan Villar. Yeah, they do. He was their best player. He was projected to be above league average. Of course they could use him. He was only going to be paid like $12 million. Why don't the Orioles keep him if they can't get anything for him? Some of this stuff makes me a little angry.

It's so weird that contending teams wouldn't give up whatever it was the Orioles wanted at the trade deadline to get VR. And now the Marlins have them. Marlins have Jesus Aguilar too. Two guys that were on their way to being non-tendered. They end up with the Marlins, I think on waiver claims

technically is how they got there. So it looks like the Marlins are kind of recreating the 2017-2018 Brewers in a couple of ways. They're nice players. Aguilar had a year that was just frustrating for a variety of reasons. Didn't really get it going in Tampa Bay after the time in Milwaukee.

The X stats were better than the actual results by a pretty wide margin. The K rate actually improved last year. The walk rate improved. Didn't hit the ball in the air as much as he did in 2018, but that seems like a flyer worth taking. don't return anything at the trade deadline, it makes it really difficult for a non-contender to hold them all year if it's not going to be enough to put them into the wildcard race.

You know, it's like you're not really spending the money on them to get an asset later. You're only spending the money on them for the 2% outcome that you're actually at the high end of your win total and somehow in the mix to make the postseason almost unexpectedly. I just reject that it's 2% because he was a four-win player last year. So I know projections say he's a two-win player this year, but I don't think it's

a 2% likelihood that he's a four-win player again. And the four-win version of vr has got to get you know some return at the deadline i don't know it's probably a prove it sort of thing because of the crazy drop off from 16 to 17 i mean he went from a three-win season in 2016 to being below replacement level in 2017 back up to being a two-win player split between the brewers and orioles in 2018 up to a four win player last year. I think there's definitely more reasons to believe than to not believe in VR though. You know, I mean if you're a team like like why aren't the Indians

in on Jonathan VR? Like they need a second baseman or they need or a third baseman either one that can play Ramirez at the other spot. For $12 million they couldn't afford him? Just for one year. it's a one year commitment you're not you're not throwing you're not throwing moustakas money out there i think this is where people get the most frustrated i mean if you're a player

in this environment and you're getting non-tendered in your first or second arbitration year because you had a down year like you're getting squeezed pretty bad. $4 million for Travis Shaw really isn't that much. I know 2019 was horrible. I watched it. But his 2017 and 2018 still have to be worth something. We talked about this when they were making the decision to bring up Keston Hira. Being a 3.5

win player in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018 shouldn't be worth absolutely nothing in 2020 just because of a partial season where everything fell apart. Yeah. And I mean, they'll get picked up, but it'll be probably less than 4 million. And every time a transaction like that happens, it depresses because the way that the market works, you know, is that you're defined against your peers and you're defined, you know, in arbitration,

that person made this much, that person did this much. By non-tendering these people, they're going to push the arbitration numbers down and they've pushed the free agency numbers down. So Travis Shaw is now going to get like a $2 million contract. So the next 28, you know, year old corner infielder coming off a bad year with two good years in the pocket is now going to say, oh, I get Travis Shaw's deal. You know? So it kind of all perpetuates itself. And so the non-tender deadline was a little bit upsetting to me.

I mean, there's some really good names on here. We have them listed here. And I think, you know, for me, the ones that stick out as having fantasy value next year, I mean, CJ Krohn happened to him twice in his career. Domingo Santana could end up somewhere good. I think Travis Shaw could be if someone employs him. Kevin Gossman, I think, could be a very good reliever.

And I still believe in Blake Triton's stuff. So, you know, there's some names on this list that I think will return positive fantasy value next year. Yeah, I mean, you can almost make an entire lineup out of these players. Krohn at the one corner, Travis Shaw at the other, if you get a DH spot. Michael Franco, I tweeted this out earlier today, his early career numbers, his age 23 to age 25 seasons as a hitter, they don't look any different than Mike Moustakis' age 23 to 25 seasons.

I know that we've talked about the Phillies as a team that are doing some really interesting things with development now and their tech with hitters. Maybe he missed that window. Maybe he was too far along already when that was implemented and it didn't work. Maybe it'll never work for him. But I have a really difficult time looking at a player

who strikes out about 15% of the time, who draws at least some walks. He walks 6% to 7% of the time. He walked more this year, I think, because he was hitting eighth. So you can't look at that bump and say, oh, he's more patient. He's drawing more walks. There's something there. He's the kind of guy, if you're a team and you need corner help, you take Michael Franco.

You take that chance and see if you can be the one to unlock further potential there, because he could become a 30 plus home run guy. Still, I still believe that is within the range of outcomes for a player like that. And to take that chance for three to five million dollars for one year, you have to take that if you have the need. yeah uh you know there's some defensive liability concerns there i guess in terms of um you know where where he's going to play uh he was already kind of um they were kind of trying to move him off a third i think a little bit um but yeah he hits the ball hard and you know c CJ Krohn was in the top 5% of the league in barrel rate. He hit the ball 91 last year, and he had a 15% barrel rate. That's what you pay him to do. Yeah, he cut his K rate last season from 25.7 and 25.9 the previous two seasons to 21.4.

So he made more contact, and when he was making making contact he was barreling the ball more than ever but then you kind of go over and try to look at you know the depth charts and say okay you know what contender could pick him up at first base well the nationals actually the nationals show up twice because their second base and first base situations are bottom five in the league right now. Maybe that changes if you swap out Wilmer Defoe with Carter Keboom, as they might do at the top of that depth chart. But over at first base, they have someone named Jake Knoll, who's projected to be one win worse than replacement next year. So I do think that the Nationals are going to play this game

where they catch the falling stars. And I think they could put Franco at first and hope for a multi-year solution or just take a year of Krohn and stick him in there, even though he's a right-hander. Just take him for what he's worth. The Brewers right now show up at 28th with Ryan Braun at the top of their projection.

I think that the Red Sox have some flexibility with Michael Chavis. And then everyone's favorite whipping boy, the Tigers, are going to take whoever everyone else leaves out there. Well, so the stupid thing that has happened, it's like it's okay to not contend for a little while. We've said as long as you do it the right way,

rebuilding is fine. And that excuses a lot of teams from spending money on these interesting players and continues to depress them year over year salary-wise. I mean, because the Tigers, basically the all non-tender team is better than their starter at just about every position right now like would you rather take the chance on travis shaw or would you rather give 500 at bats to dwell lugo you know would you

rather run out jose parraza or cesar hernandez at base, or would you rather play Nico Goodrum? Maybe Goodrum is an exception. Maybe up the middle with Goodrum and Castro, they're interesting enough, but they've got holes all over the place. First base, I mean, Jai Mercandolario? You got to tweak the incentives. I mean, this is a game.

This is a game. If you're Fantasy League, if you had a Fantasy League person that was tanking like this and was running out Ahiri Adrianza at first base, then you would do something about it because you can change the game. So I don't know what it is, but I think there is something for baseball in terms of a salary floor. That could be part of the solution. The teams are, this is, I mean, you've played in a dynasty league with Tom Trudeau.

We've talked about him on a few episodes over the season, but he's one of the best dynasty players out there, and he plays for the future. And if at any given time when he's not competing, you look at his lineup, you're going to see a bunch of guys who probably take zeros because they're not even playing in the big leagues yet. Because there's no penalty for playing in a dynasty league that way. big leagues yet because there's no penalty for playing in a dynasty league that way most dynasty leagues you play in don't have something where you have to pay three or five times the buy-in when you're in the bottom few spots in the league right it there's no there is no penalty you're right there's there's also no there's no baseball corollary to that like you know the tigers have to pay more because they're worse but uh there's no way that you can throw that into the incentive structure. But I am a little bit interested in these soccer style tournaments. Basketball is apparently

considering doing like a preseason, cutting some regular season games and maybe doing some preseason, maybe even during season tournaments, like mini tournaments. And I don't know what the reward can be, other than maybe increased attendance and gate receipts. But that might be a fun way to incentivize teams to remain good. You know, in soccer, in England, you have the threat of relegation, but you also have what's called like the FA Cup, which is like a totally just, it's like a separate thing than the regular standings, but you have a chance to win in that. I think even sometimes teams like that you wouldn't expect to get a new player mid-season because they're doing well in the FA Cup. And there's money at the end of that for them.

So, you know, baseball doesn't really like change much. And maybe this is too much change I'm considering. Maybe a salary floor is actually a lot easier to do. But, you know, teams lose a lot of fans, and they don't get them back quickly. They lose a lot of fans when they tank, and they don't get them back quickly. They lose a lot of fans when they tank and they don't get them back quickly. And that means the sport in general loses fans a lot when they go into these rebuild cycles. And they don't always get them back.

Yeah, I kind of get the feeling that the powers that be at Major League Baseball look at the sport as financially bulletproof because of the huge TV deals they've been getting over the last few years. And I don't think that's going to hold up if there's a labor stoppage again. If there is a stoppage after the 2021 season when the CBA expires, I think you're going to lose some fans for good again. That happened last time there was a strike, right? There are definitely fans that left and never came back and for some that did it took a long time before they did so if they screw this up they the powers that be the owners

the commissioner's office if they screw this up there actually could be a long-term ramification there could be something very negative for them in the long run the health and well-being of the league could eventually suffer there could be this level of arrogance there they might just think that anything they do is going to be fine and people are always going to watch baseball but i think they're wrong yeah and just looking at this depth chart like why did the twins like what the and then there's what we're talking about with rebuilding and the tigers and stuff but why did the twins cut chn? Like, I don't get it. It's Marwin Gonzalez and Ahiri De Andrianza now at the top of that thing. And yes, they may want to shave a

million or two off and play the game that the Brewers are playing with Eric Thames. But now, if you look at the free agent list of available first basemen, Eric Thames looks good. He's at the top of the list. Yeah, he compared favorably to Jose Abreu last year in terms of his output. Abreu actually got paid, but he was in unique circumstances with the White Sox. Yeah, I think so. But Thames and, like, I think Abreu's a little bit too far in the other direction. But Thames and Krohn now are the best first basemen on the market. They're the only first basemen on the market.

Justin Boer went to Japan. CJ Krohn might get more money in Japan. Like,eman on the market. Justin Boer went to Japan. CJ Krohn might get more money in Japan. Like, that's the truth. Like, that's the sad truth of Major League Baseball right now. And there are teams. The Twins are 18th on the first base depth chart. The Angels are 19th. The Padres are 20th.

These are teams. You've taken punt first base too far, people. There are wins to be had. The Red Sox are 25th. There are wins to be had, and these are teams that want to win. And now there's two first basemen

out there. Maybe three if you count Travis Shaw. You can count Wilmer Flores, maybe. Maybe they just see the difference between Wilmer Flores and CJ Krohn is negligible, and if they can save $2 million and either keep it or put it towards somebody else,

then that's just how they want to do business. But eventually that has to come back and bite you. I don't see that difference. You can't live like that forever. That does not work forever. I think someone's going to get left holding the bag.

I hope someone gets left holding the bag i hope someone gets left holding the bag yeah i mean other than the players in this case like that but that's the most likely outcome flores six million dollar option was declined what was crone projected to make seven million for crone right but yeah you're gonna try to save a million or two right there and and take the chance on mitch Moreland or Shaw or somebody else who's depressed in that same range. The range of outcomes of all those players are so similar that you just take the cheapest one you can get.

That's how teams are viewing that problem right now. Yeah, and I get it, but there's also a reason that some of these guys are cheaper. I mean, Flores can't stay healthy. Shaw had a terrible year. Flores has never had a 600 plate appearance season. Yeah.

Part of that was that the Mets always put him on the small side of the platoon, though, too. Right. That makes him hard to evaluate, too, because you don't know what his true ability against right-handers is, because it's like a collection of tiny samples. But anyway,

Krohn should get five or six million. It'd be funny. They're just all going to switch. So the Brewers are going to sign Krohn. Everyone's going to save about a million off of what they were going to spend on options and arbitration. Everyone's going to save $ a million off of what they were going to spend on options and arbitration. Everyone's going to save a million dollars. It's like a game

of musical chairs. The worst player in the bunch won't get a job or will have to go to Japan or the KBO. Everybody else will make a little bit less. That's how it's going to work. Every team's going to feel good for saving a million. They're cutting coupons. These are millionaires and billionaires cutting coupons.'s yeah yeah that's that's the weird feeling and uh i actually

think that this there is there are actually more teams that need first baseman than there are uh first baseman i i hope i hope it's that way i hope i hope it's musical chairs the other way where there are teams like good teams that are like, oh, crap. Now we're playing a really bad player at first base. Now Carl's going to get eight, nine million. Oh, good job, guys. Anyway, I do think that the most likely to actually this is interesting. Who is most likely to get a starting job and have 600 plate appearances next year on the non-tender deadline? From the non-tender player starting job, 600 plate appearances next year on the non-tender deadline? From the non-tender player starting job, 600

plate appearances? None of them. Cesar Hernandez is the most likely player for me. There are a handful of teams that need a second baseman. He gets on base and that moves the needle. He had a 333 OBP last year. He's been

as high as a three-win player. Yeah, Cleveland could be a fit there. I see him as an easy, easy guy that you give the playing time to if you have the need at second base. He could lead off on a good team, and he just got non-tendered. Yeah. That's really stupid. Giants right now are slated to put Dubon at second.

He's going to have a 3-0-5 OBP, 4-0-2 slugging. Cesar Hernandez can beat him in both of those. Teams that need second base help. The A's got a bunch of guys they could use to replace Jerks and Profar, which was a little bit of a surprise when they made that move to get him in the first place. They got Sheldon Noisy. They got Jorge Mateo. They got Franklin Barreto.

They're all righties. So maybe the A's do something. Cleveland definitely needs a second baseman. Seattle's not going to spend there. The Orioles don't care, so they're just going to do their thing. The Rangers could give up on Ruggie. He's probably the best all-around

player on the list. I think so. I think he's the guy you would most confidently project to be a two to two and a half win player from those position players. A lot of those guys have injury issues. That's part of the reason why they're there. Krohn had the surgery. Yeah. The guy that's kind of a sleeper for me, I was kind of making a non-tender team, Kevin Ploiecki, I think is still interesting. It's hard to find catchers. The Indians didn't need him. They non-tendered him.

Some team that needs a catcher, i think is going to take that chance he might hit more than you expect and i think he's actually a good enough defender to be more than a part-time catcher yeah and uh i think gossman is an interesting situation too because i don't think that um i don't think that anyone's at fault here and i don't think it's a game in the system and i don't think that anyone's at fault here, and I don't think it's a game in the system, and I don't think anyone's trying to shave a million. What happened is that Gaussman, he built up an arbitration number as a starter, and I think he's going to be a reliever. So nobody wanted to pay him, like the Reds didn't want to pay him 10,

almost $11 million, because there wasn't going to be a starter for them, right? So I do think he'll get a job and i think he might even get like a two and ten type deal and i think he could be a very good reliever but i think maybe the ship has sailed on on him as a starter and he might be like a 75 to 80 inning reliever like a higher end volume guy that you can throw out there a lot because he's thrown a lot of innings as a starter but yeah he makes a lot of sense if you get him for two and ten two and twelve total i think it's a steal people will be talking to him and trying and i think also as much as you

know there's been some debate about whether or not he's good or how many good seasons he's had i don't i've seen a lot of people say he's had one good season i i don't know what they're looking at uh i see somewhere between three and four good seasons and really really only like two bad seasons maybe i the walk rate used to be a little high so that pulls the war down a bit but yeah it's it's 2017, 1.4 wins above replacement, monster 2018. Yeah, and seasons of 0.5 to 0.7 wins as a reliever, that's fine. That happens all the time.

There are good relievers that do that. So I'm not looking necessarily at war. I'm just looking at good strikeout rates, no five walk rate or whatever, no terrible home run rate. He did have a bad season last year, but I still saw 97 mile an hour stuff with a lot of sink, and I'd be ready to sign him.

So maybe his arbitration number was pushed a little bit also by the fact that he had been a closer, and saves definitely factor in so you know he was projected for an eight million dollar salary i would expect that someone signs him for like three to four at least um that's a i guess that's that's that's more than shaving a hundred you know more than saving shaving a hundred thousand or shaving a million off of it it's maybe he isn't worth 8 million because maybe he isn't, you know, all-star closer, you know, status anymore. There definitely the command goes in and out for him, but I would be, I'd be interested in signing him and I could see him signing somewhere

where he ends up, uh, you know, ends up saving some games because he does have that stuff. And I guess bullpens that really need it, like if he signed with the Blue Jays and then they traded Ken Giles, or if he signs with the White Sox. I mean, the White Sox we were just talking about, they need relievers. They're right there, but Colomay and Bummer, maybe one other guy, they need more. So the Angels, they don't really go that deep. If Hanzo Robles takes a step back, Buttrey is not quite as buttery.

And Bedrosian's always hurt, you know, there's a path there too. So I could see Trennan having some saves this year. I could also see Gossman as having some saves. But I think that Gossman has to prove that he can do the back-end relief part still. And what you said earlier about him pitching more innings would make him more of a fireman,

make him more of a 6th, 7th inning guy. Yeah, I mean, I get to see teams that are comfortable working relievers. If you trust your manager to handle the bullpen correctly, Kevin Gossman should be in your bullpen. If you're going to do a paint-by-numbers bullpen, there aren't many teams like that anymore, but if you are one of those teams, then you shouldn't spend your money on Kevin Gossman because you're not going to use him the right way. You're not going to use him enough. He's not going to be the right fit for you um taiwan walker was also non-tendered i mean he's he's an injury case of

course it's a pretty bad injury case too because not only did he blow out his elbow but then as he's coming back he started having shoulder problems so uh that's going the wrong way on the kinetic chain a little bit um but the the padres uh while we're on bullpens a little bit, the Padres beefed up their bullpen by adding Drew Pomerantz. And people, I think, were rightly concerned with the four-year aspect of the deal. But I would have given him three and 30, and he went for four and 30, basically. So I don't really care about the number of years. In that case, it just keeps the luxury tax number down. And the reason I would have given him 3 and 30 is he had more velocity than Adam Adovino. He had a better strikeout rate than Adam Adovino.

And he had a comparable breaking ball. It doesn't look the same, but in strength and in features in terms of velocity and spin and all that stuff, it was comparable. So Adam Adovino got, I think, what, 3-27 or something from the Yankees? So I don't think there's anything wrong with that Pomerantz deal. And now with Pomerantz, Munoz, and Yates, they go into the season with a really nice bullpen. I even like Perdomo as a reliever. And they've got Wingenter and Castillo. They've got really good pieces in that bullpen.

They even have young guys that could end up in the bullpen later. And if they break it apart, then maybe Pomerantz ends up saving later. Or maybe he gets some of those lefty saves on a day where they want to give Kirby Yates a rest. But five to ten saves next year, really good numbers, really good in holds leagues. I expect Pomerantz to be a valuable player next year. Having depth in that bullpen, being able to end the game potentially after the sixth inning when you have as many young starters

as the Padres have about to graduate, you're going to be monitoring those workloads carefully for the next couple of seasons. That's a really good way to maximize the effectiveness of your starters anyway, but their position, if they want to start contending, is such that they really need to have a super bullpen because of the way that core is built. Maybe they go out and spend it and bring in a Strasburg or something.

That's where everyone kind of wants Strasburg to go just because it's a return home in a lot of ways for him. But nevertheless, yeah, I agree. They have a loaded bullpen already, and that team is absolutely one on the rise. Maybe they end up losing the Urias deal we talked about earlier. There are a ton of other good prospects coming through that system, and the core is definitely coming into place in San Diego. Will Smith, he's got a new gig. He's in Atlanta. That happened a few weeks ago, but I was really surprised to see the reports that Mark Melanson is going to open the season as the closer. I mean, it could be a case where the Braves are going to use the best reliever in the spot where you should use them.

And if that's a save, it's a save. And if it's the 7th or the 8th, then it's the 7th or the 8th. Maybe that's what they're telling us, but I do like Will Smith, and I still think he has a lot of fantasy value with the move to Atlanta. Yeah, this Braves bullpen is fascinating to me because they've spent a fair amount of money on it. They've spent a great deal of attention on it. It reminds me a little bit of the Baltimore bullpens, not only because they've got Darren O'Day in it,

but because they've got a lot of different looks. You've got Darren O'Day throwing from underneath. You've got Luke Jackson throwing 55% sliders. You've got Shane Green, who's like a little bit more of a traditional righty-on-righty guy. You've got Chris Martin coming in with excellent command. Then you've got Will Smith, and then Mark Melanson kind of a traditional righty-on-righty guy. You've got Chris Martin coming in with excellent command. Then you've got Will Smith and then Mark Melanson,

kind of a throwback at the back there. And I think it's a strong bullpen. I think it's a good one for baseball playing. But for fantasy baseball playing, I'm seeing a lot of at least yellow lights in terms of Mark Melanson's strikeout rate is not good. He's lost the job before. His velocity goes up and down. He's an injury case. Will Smith should be the guy, but he's a lefty. What if they go back to Shane Green? We got a former closer in Shane Green. Luke Jackson saved

like 15 games in him last year, you know? So what if they, and what if they go super situational and they bring in Darren O'Day because they know this one guy has, can't see submariners or whatever, you know? I could see it being a situation where Will Smith leads them with 15 saves. Melanson has eight. Shane Green has six.

Darren O'Day has four. And all of us go, I can't top that. That's very true. It could play out that way. I think the one thing that could open things up for Will Smith, if they're able to get A.J. Minter healthy, to have him as another hard-throwing dominant lefty in the back.

That would free things up for the later spots for a lefty. Will Smith's good against lefties and righties, so it's not like he's only going to face lefties. But I think for a bullpen to use a lefty for saves, it means they have to have left-handed depth because if they have other situations ahead of that where they want to use someone else you know they have to have that someone else to actually pull it off and in mentors 2018 was pretty lights out they just don't really have that other lefty that uh and it's not yeah it's not just what happens it's not

just that will smith is only for lefties. It's that when you use Will Smith as a closer, then you don't have a situational lefty. So is it going to be Grant Dayton, who was decent last year, but in a small sample and throws 91? Is a minter going to be healthy and coming back and throwing hard? Does that open them up to make Will Smith the closer?

I do think those things matter. And I do expect that Will Smith will lead the Braves in saves. I just don't know what the number will be. I would guess in the 20, low 20 range. And if the price reflects that, then I will have a lot of Will Smith.

It's harder to get saves, harder to find 35 and 40 save guys anyway. I at least want one who's going to miss a lot of bats and probably give me good ratios and I expect Will Smith to do both of those things. Yeah, he's a good pitcher. He's the best pitcher. I think that's underrated

in terms of looking at these bullpens nowadays. It's just like, who's the best pitcher? Because think back to when Josh Hader was coming up and was like, well, it's just like, who's the best pitcher. Cause it's like, think back to when Josh Hader was coming up and it was like, well, he's not going to be the closer. Is he, you know,

do you really want to draft him? And yes, yes. You want to draft him? Cause he's the best pitcher. And eventually it might've taken three years, but he finally got the most saves. It took Corey Knable having Tommy John surgery,

Jeremy Jeffers having a bad shoulder, but it did finally happen. It did finally happen. No, hey. It doesn't seem like that was their design. Yeah, if you drafted Hayter all those years, you still got value out of him. Yeah, he still helped your staff. He still was a good pitcher to have in your nine active pitcher spots throughout the season. Yeah.

So I gravitate towards who's the best pitcher. good pitcher to have in your nine active pitcher spots throughout the season. Yeah. So that's, that's, I gravitate towards who's the best pitcher sometimes. And, and also like, don't listen to managers. They're liars. Everyone's a liar.

I mean, like everyone associated with the team is a liar. And that has been driving me nuts over the last couple of days. Right. There's reports that team, like I've obviously followed the brewers very closely i write about the brewers the brewers are undoubtedly going to spend less money like this is a bob nightingale tweet i'm not trying to i'm so this is a guy but

that sent me for a loop because i gotta write about the brewers are they gonna send less money what are you talking about well yeah and he was citing conversations with rival executives from the gm meetings it's like, okay, so wait. So we know GMs do talk about what they're going to do. The Alex Anthopoulos stuff that came up early in the offseason kind of put a little spotlight on that. But do we think that a front office person like Stearns, who's generally, I think, considered shrewd and bright, is going to go around telling other teams what he's going to do?

Does it pass that test? Also, if you're in negotiations with a player, with another GM, and they have a player that's paid X dollars, of course you're going to say, I don't expect to spend a lot of money this year, so I don't think we want to spend X dollars. That's a negotiating tactic.

Yes. I just think if we sit here and pretend that we understand what any team is actually going to spend on opening day in 2020, we're lying. We don't know. We don't know exactly how much teams are making. We don't know exactly how much teams are willing to spend. We know they have lots of money.

We know they can all spend more than they do. We operate under those constraints. They operate under their own internal constraints that they do not share with the public. They just don't share that with people. That's the only thing I was going to say is that the general managers do get a number, and they generally spend all of it. Yeah, why wouldn't you? You want to keep your job.

You want to win as much as possible to keep your job, right? But you might save, if you're like a really good contender or a team like the Yankees or something, you might save three to five million

for the trade deadline. But otherwise, you know, Billy Bean said this right out. He said, I'm going to spend every dollar that they let me spend. And that's why he gets relievers

all the time because he doesn't get a lot to spend. That's why he gets relievers all the time, because he doesn't get a lot to spend. Well, if you get whatever it is you're going to spend your money on, if you don't win, you're going to want to be able to trade those players for future players of value. So if you know what other teams value, spend it on that. You never want to give up any ground in negotiation.

You don't want to say, okay, you know, I won't spend it this year. Then you don't want to say okay you know i won't spend it this year you know then then you don't get it next year yeah i i just i don't know like the brewers have gone to the playoffs in back-to-back years yeah the payroll was at an all-time high just over 125 actually 127 million i think when you count the the buyouts that they had to pay on the options for grandal and Moustakis. And I know everyone's like, Derek, stop talking about the Brewers. I'm just using them as the example. And this is happening for a bunch of teams right now.

No one knows how much your team is going to spend except for the owner and the GM. And they're probably not telling anyone their actual number other than people in the inner circle. Probably not telling anyone their actual number other than people in the inner circle. How much of a difficulty would it be if you were Stearns to convince the owner to at least spend $120 million again? I mean, they were that close. Yeah. I also think there are some owners who are competitive and want to win. I think those people do exist. These teams, for some people, are just like a plaything investment.

They make money for them, but it's like, hey, it'd be fun to win a World Series while I own this team and make money. If it was only about making money, they could own any business. We've come to a very interesting place in the show. The rants of this show have ended. We'll move on to our Beer of the Week segment, which I feel like is always going to be a great segment coming out of Thanksgiving week. It was a drink your cellar week for me. I packed up a box, brought it home to my in-laws and tried a whole bunch of different

things. And fortunately, spreading it out over a few days went a lot better than consolidating the drink your cellar on one friday night back during the summer so it was a much more pleasant experience for for everybody involved but you know what did you get into over the last week or so i actually i totally cleaned out my cellar and i brought it to family uh and i thought you know this they won't drink it because I brought like two sours and some hazy IPAs and stuff. And they drank it all. So I had to go to the store again the next day. But I think the one that stood out for me was Modern Times had a sour called Singular Rhythms.

There's a couple different versions. I've got like the blackberry one in the fridge now. But I brought the Nelson Hops one. And it had grape must in it and Nelson hops, and it was outstanding. And I just love the way that Nelson brings that kind of almost mango-esque peach maybe feeling and brings it using, you know, green hops, and it's not actually fruit that's put in there. So I don't know what grape must is, but I must have it. And I really enjoyed it. It was a kind of like a mellow saison type sour. But with that, that dry hopping, And this is something I've said in the past, that you can really get the quality of a hops when you drink a single hopped dry hop sour,

because then that hops really stands out and it's not blended in with other grains and the malt and all that like it is in the IPAs. So if you want to know what Nelson hops taste like, get this Modern Times Singular Rhythms with the Nelson hops. Two thumbs up. One of the beers that I did not bring with me was one I received on Thanksgiving. My wife's cousin has become a major craft beer fan over the last couple of years. And I was in the door for 30 seconds at Thanksgiving,

and she handed me a beer from Equilibrium in Middletown, New York. It was a double dry hopped IPA. I think it was the fluctuation IPA. And it was awesome. I mean, it was like crushable because it was fruity, but it had just such clean, like fresh hops. It was amazing. Like I really would highly recommend it if you're in a place where you can get it. I think she got it while she was traveling, so I don't even know what their distribution looks like, but it's Equilibrium Brewery. It was good enough where I would trust pretty much anything from that brewery if I saw it. I would just blindly pick it up and give it a shot as long as it hit the shelves in the last week or two. But it was a really pleasant surprise because I was not anticipating trying new beer at Thanksgiving. I was expecting to drink a lot of my old favorites. I had Cassian Sunset from 2018. I had a bottle of that. It popped open

back on Thanksgiving Eve. It's still really good. Probably my favorite of the barrel age, Central Waters beers, a totally different corner of the world from the equilibrium double dry hopped ipa that i had but uh yeah it was a good very good beer week last week i've had an equilibrium i had their d hop eight and it actually was a hazy beer with zest pepper in it oh uh apparently it wasn't one of their very best in the series uh but i was it stood out to me i can still remember drinking it so i remember thinking this is really good except i don't really like the zest pepper but you know a plus for effort yeah yeah i mean the one i had was a pretty like traditional hazy ipa very juicy, mango, pineapple, just deliciousness.

It pairs really well with turkey. Hazies pair perfectly with turkey. They pair well with just about everything, but light meats especially, big thumbs up on that. Yeah, they crushed my – I brought some Moonraker, some grass that was like a grassy. That's, I think, actually not done very often. A grassy hazy beer, you know? But it worked really well, and they liked it. I want to make one, but I've never had one.

Yeah. Well, it's hard to know exactly what the hops is that leads to that grassiness. Maybe I should know, but I'm not a brewer. grassiness. Maybe I should know, but I'm not a brewer. They usually give you a hint like calling it some grass. I got a good name for it. If anyone wants to give us the secret,

I'll give a name for the future beer that you can make of this style. Hit us up, ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com. You can use any subject line you want now, and that email will still reach us. So that's pretty cool. You can find Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. Winter Meeting is coming up next week. So next week's episode might not drop at the usual time, but we will have one next week, one way or another. And again, if you listen to us on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, any place where you can leave us a nice rating and review,

we would greatly appreciate that. You can get 40% off a subscription to The Athletic if you're not already a subscriber at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. That is going to wrap things up for this week's episode. We hope you enjoyed it. As always, thanks for listening.