Rates & Barrels - MLB Weekend News and WBC Stuff+ Numbers

Episode Date: March 20, 2023

So much news one little weekend can pack in. Eno and Welsh discuss Altuve's injury, should we be worried about Soto's oblique and Eno digs into some of the biggest Stuff+ numbers from the WBC. Rundown 4:19 - Jose Altuve's injury and how to draft him 22:34 - Juan Soto's oblique 29:45 - Jacob DeGrom's first spring start 32:55 - Brandon Nimmo 34:43 - Jurickson Profar to the Rockies 39:34 - Weird Vaughn Grissom situation 44:57 - WBC Stuff+ numbers Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Treat yourself to Tim's new Fudge Brownie Lattes, made with freshly ground espresso beans, frothy steamed or ice-chilled milk, and topped with marble chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. welcome in friends to rates and barrels right here on the athletic i am chris welsh that is you know saris it's saris called out on the internet you know you got to correct me on things i was putting some english on your last name. I do too many radio spots. I, you know, it's fine. I know how it is. It's Eno and Welsh. Plus, I'm not the paragon of pronunciation.

Yeah, well, I don't necessarily try to be unless I, like. Right. That's true. I also do, I'm not doing this as a bit. I do not think it's funny to mispronounce people's names. I just, I speak German and French and, you speak german and french and you know yeah that's my that's my excuse i don't really have an excuse like i try but i do get like i do get super excited when i have someone's name that everybody else says wrong and i know i can do it right like

it is a very exciting moment and that actually was like Jared Kelnick. Jared Kelnick was like that for many years because I, shout out Welsh, I talked to him like 2019, I'm doing my thing, my callbacks. And I asked him this exact question. I was like, it's Kelnick, right? And he was like, yeah, it's Kelnick. But everyone would go Kelnick was a very popular one.

Kelnick was one. So it's a very exciting moment. Your eyes girded up many times. Yeah, everybody in the planet. It's just, it's a very exciting moment it up many times yeah every everybody in the planet it's just it's like super exciting when you have that and but it's also probably very exciting for listeners when we do something wrong that they get to tell us it's like the most exciting thing of their day to call us out on it so it's you know saris and chris welsh today on the episode talking about a lot of the latest news of course what happened over the weekend

ironically way more stuff than we probably expected just over a couple days of being off and you know he's got some wbc stuff plus numbers which should be very interesting to talk about we're going to do but i do want to remind you guys to come and check us out over at the athletic the athletic.com slash rates and barrels two dollars a month is going to get your subscription set and you get access to all of the things like the draft kit. This is the last opportunity for you to take advantage of the draft kit. I don't know, unless you're crazy and you do like one that's two weeks into the season, which is still great.

It's still great. You're going to have access to it, but sign up now, get access to that. You get all Eno's work. My dynasty ranks are up there and a gajillion other awesome things. So go to the athletic.com slash rates and barrels, and we would very much appreciate it. And for everybody wondering, I do believe we are in a week and a half countdown to the great Derek Van Ryper returning. I know people are probably patiently waiting. Derek has been spending time with his wife

and his child as he should. I wish for him back. What's that? Every show I have to host, I wish for him back. Every show I have to host, I wish for him back. I heard that wrong. I thought it was like every show I do, I wish for him back.

I'm like, no, no, no. Every time I have to host, I'm such a terrible host. I thank very much for your hosting abilities. Well,

I appreciate it. Well, I think, I think you undercut yourself. You do a really great job, but I have enjoyed doing the shows with you very much. And I appreciate all the people that have said very, very nice things about you and I doing the shows together. I've seen a lot of nice compliments.

So thank you. You know, and I luckily have had a nice rapport over the years and a good relationship. So I think that makes it a little bit easier. And let's get into the stuff. Let's get into the stuff and things here, my friends, where the Wbc wbc i don't need to do this a whole bunch but the wbc is like full front attack for everybody right now on the internet because of the injuries that are coming out of it which you know it's kind of hilarious you know because it's like spring training does the same thing and if it wasn't the wbc we're having simultaneous spring training news updates at

the same time i mean it's like we're gonna enter nemo hurt the same day as edwin diaz you know it's like well it's also it's like uh if it wasn't the wbc the the complaint we would be hearing right now is spring training is too long like that's what everyone would do which is too long yeah that's probably true it's probably true it might be i mean for me personally out here it's too short because i've only got a week left to be able to go and everyone's everyone's in town. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But the WBC has been under attack a whole bunch and there have been plenty of injuries. Edwin Diaz obviously was the biggest of all of them.

The newest one, though, came this weekend. I was watching as many people were watching this live. Jose Altuve was hit on the hand and has a fractured right thumb. It is going to require surgery. Apparently we found out in the coming days and he's going to miss eight to 10 weeks, which is going to be about, yeah,

it's going to be about six to eight in season. So yeah, that was pretty, that was as soon as it happened, I was like, he's broken. That's broken. He'd like the way he was holding it.

He was, he was, it was broken. Well, we also had a fear not to like jump uh the next conversation or anything like that or one of the have in here but nolan arenado had a very similar situation happen where he was hit and it was a little bit more in the wrist and luckily it looks like it's going to be um he passed the x-ray test right yeah he didn't have

anything broken or anything like that but like these injuries mounting up but the jose altuve one is huge because the position for fantasy baseball that second base already kind of stunk it already was a problem overall and you're going to take him off the table for what looks like two months of the regular season and that is a absolutely brutal blow so i'm curious almost really gets him i mean i guess trevor's story is out a little bit longer but maybe the whole season yeah kind of wherever you had uh trevor's story you know you're not going to have a tube much higher than that so but what do you think what is that well taking the the best projected second baseman basically and you're replacing him with david helsley yeah well let's talk about helsley in a second here because he's super interesting but on the altuve front

what do you think the range is because my initial reaction to this was like if you wanted to do this you could snag him between like 90 and 110 somewhere there. And then what you do is you have to back him up later. A personal one I really like is I like getting like Quetel Marte later because Quetel Marte has like a super low ADP. And if you're able to take out Tuve and you have some form, obviously not an NFPC where you don't have an IL spot,

but you have an IL spot, you draft him. And then you take like a complimentary second baseman, which in my mind, I think Quetel Marte is like the perfect person, but what do you think the actual ADP spot is? Like, let me ask you right here. Would you rather have Altuve with drafting replacement or Glaber Torres who

has like around a one, no five to one 10 ADP on NFBC. I have a very sort of a strong NFBC bias during these times of the year because, you know, like I'm preparing for my main event and, you know, thinking about that. So in that case, it would be Gleyber Torres. But if I had an I.O. slot. I could see it because Torres doesn't really steal bases. I don't know how many he'll steal this year he's like kind of he's right in that place where he could steal a lot more or not many more and everybody else could steal more so i i don't

i think i would lean torres i don't like i don't like to have to think that i have to have two roster spots to figure out one one position okay so it sounds like he's gonna go further down here max is like a 130. i just found him at 132 since march 1st on draft champions and i actually love him and say that he's a value on the bounce back so maybe jorge polanco at 150. let's see jorge polanco is also dealing with an injury it's funny enough that you mentioned that because we also have um I don't know if I put it on here but it looks like he's gonna miss the beginning of the year and might hit an IL stint it might be minimal it might be like two weeks or something like that but he's already kind of banged up what's wrong with him

uh let me pull it up here because it was. Yeah. Well, they said he's not going to be ready for the start of the season. Normal soreness. No setback. We're running out of days. Yeah. Might not be ready for this season. Also actually talking about a cure loft and Buxton.

No shocker being set up. Yeah. He suffered a bone bruise last season and i guess it's still that is not good that didn't see that doesn't seem like the weirdest things man sometimes they were big deal and that seems like something i wouldn't want to do so like in that case in that specific case of polanco i actually would go with the upside of altubi because you're missing i guess a third of the season. Well, there's a good reason in both cases, 100%. I guess, how about, where's Jonathan India these days?

Okay, India. Actually, I'm very curious at what you're going to say with that then because I'm not a big Jonathan India guy. Jonathan India has a 177 ADP since March 1st on Draft Champions. That's where, that's where. I mean, I would jump on it. I would do Altuve over Polanco. And it. I would do Altuve over Polanco, and I think I would do Altuve over India, especially if I could pair it with Marte,

who goes another 20 picks later. So maybe Altuve and Marte, like, you know, back-to-back almost. How about Brandon Lau, who has a 170? Is that the same kind of... I mean, he's really close to India. Is that the same thing, or does he get an get like the thing that's hard about projecting brandon lau is that he's a pull lefty and if he does get some love from the shift rules then that changes his projections uh pretty

hardcore in terms of his value because you know he strikes out a lot, 249 career average, projected for 245 by most of the systems. But what if he, as a pull lefty, gets a little lucky and hits 260? Now you're talking about 260, a guy who could hit 30 homers again. And 260 and 30 homers with a handful of stolen bases, it's hard to look past that. But maybe you could pair him with Altuve. This is just about to say, I was going to say,

would you be willing to pair like... Lau and... That does mean you're pushing... Your util now has to be an MI, right? You're pushing all this down. So now, because your util has to be an MI because basically you're saying, okay, for MI, I'm going to take Altuve,

but I have to take another one. So you have to be an MI because basically you're saying, okay, for MI, I'm going to take Altuve, but I have to take another one. So you have to take three MIs. Yeah, okay. No, you have to take four MIs. So basically I'm just saying you have to use an extra roster spot. So there is some cost to that. But if I'm saying I can pair, or Marte with Altuve, then I can,

then I would do it. So yeah, I think around one 70, he can become splattable to me. Yeah. I mean that, and that's where I think it's going to be really interesting. Cause I have to,

I just have a feeling drafts when they start to push this coming weekend, not saying NFPC, cause NFPC is a different beast. We all have to understand that if there's like no IL spots, I think that is going to kind of change everything. And obviously big, big dollar, you just want want your production now but in a lot of just like home leagues and stuff like that i just don't know if altuve is really gonna dip and drop outside

like the 125s because that the ability to stash like we can't we can't dismiss we can't dismiss the idea that being able to stash a player and find replacement value in a 10 team league i think this is way more palatable as well because the player pool is just bigger so you can get easily you can almost like you can almost just draft out two vey and then just see what you can get off the wire i mean what about david hensley yeah like uh be an interesting idea the the guy had a really nice debut in terms of making contact and, in fact, had a better strikeout rate in his first attempt at the big leagues than he did in any stop in the minor leagues. So all the projections are saying he's going to strike out more,

but with an 8.5% swinging strike rate and a good eye at the plate, are we sure he's going to strike out a lot more? If he strikes out 20% of of the time he could hit 260 uh and give you you know five homers and five stolen bases uh while you're waiting for all two there well there's so much that's fascinating about him too if you want to talk about polar opposites he's also six foot six he's gonna be like the tallest second baseman to the shortest second baseman in baseball which is crazy he had uh 10 why does he not have more power that's kind of crazy he's a six foot six like contact guy skinnier it's like a skinnier guy he looks like he's got that like um jeff

mcneil frame but just like a taller guy with the jeff mil frame. 10 homers, 20 stolen bases in the minors last year. 80 walks, though, supporting a 420 OBP. This spring, which might be a little bit more relevant to people, it's been a pretty good spring. Two homers, two stolen bases, 286. That OBP is still up, 400-plus OBP. So if you play in an OBP format, he might even be a little bit more worthwhile worthwhile than just like oh he's just a replacement

to Altuve for now Hensley might really have some run here but you know this is a huge second baseman that's going to be in play let's say in the 10 and 12 team formats for just one second do you think you would push Altuve up whether it is focusing on Hensley or Marte or whatever is in a 10 and 12 team do you think Altuve's ADP sits is focusing on Hensley or Marte or whatever, is in a 10 and 12 team. Do you think Altuve's ADP sits more in the 100s? Because like you were saying, maybe you just take him, you IL him and you have way more replacements, or do you still think it should be lower? Yeah. I think the shallower the league, the more likely I take the shot. So then we get into 15 and now you're 15 team roto now he's 150 plus he's one you know 160 17 somewhere

in there in a 10 team yeah i could see him being like 100 to 120 because you know you're going to finish a 10 team draft and there's on the on the uh waiver wire is going to be chris taylor that's a good point i mean there might be some scenarios where katel marte might still be i mean also if you play in like um like an espn or a yahoo based league and use their standard roster construction they don't use like espn doesn't use middle and corner anymore they just they have less roster spots so that's another thing that kind of alters it so at the end of the day you can manipulate this stuff i think what you could do and if you want to be in the al tuve game this year is let's say 150 is the range let's say you know just kind of set the table 150 is the range maybe you jump a tiny bit ahead and then you also reach ahead on lau and you just snag both of those guys back to back or you know how whatever that

grouping you really like is i like the catt Marte. I can pay a little bit cheaper. But if you like Lau and Altuve... That three is interesting to me. Those three as a plan. Even if you get screwed out of it, Chris Taylor has a really high ADP and a decent projection. So in the main event...

Chris Taylor could be a backup plan even in a deeper league. Not to unveil any main event plans, but will David Hensley be on your watch list for the main event? I've got a co-manager this year. And we've been mostly focusing on the top of the draft right now to get our KDS strong. I think there's so much that happens after your first few picks.

You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. Then you think, what if we end up with Albies? Then, you know, Hensley might be on our,

our waiver on our, on our minds, but not necessarily a top target. We might have a weaker position somewhere where we need somebody. Well, the, the really interesting thing actually be for your main event is going to be how are everybody because what is it is it 15 teams uh yeah 15 teams yeah so how is everybody going to approach second base now because you guys are all

going to be in an arms race for second base guys it's going to be jazz marcus simi and altuve everyone's going to be fighting for and then what you know you're going to try to hopefully get maybe a a better deal on a max months i mean there's only so many names to go i'm actually more curious not where guys like hensley goes how those top second basemen are going to be treated like is simeon gonna go he should probably be the number one i consider jazz the best play at second base but simeon is probably the safest i wouldn't be shocked if simeon went a full round higher than he was going. What if he went into the mid twenties? I mean, do you think that's possible with the position? It is, but I I'm hoping not to panic myself. Uh, second base is an, is an interesting position for me. So third base,

everyone talks about the shelf and the quality of the top. And that's true. There are five, uh, there's five third baseman. If you count wit, uh uh projected for by the bat x in the 15 teamer um to be worth more than 40 i mean 30 um and so uh oh this doesn't have mirci good job i mean let me let me just do that yeah yeah yeah so uh there's five uh there's five including bregman over 20 right um and so that's good that's good the six six including whit and bregman so six that's that's a big shelf right and then you've got uh 15 that are over ten dollars by the bad x it's a good position and and I can see people wanting to maybe dip into it twice and get something off that top of that shelf.

Second base with Altuve out now has four guys above 20, right? So it just doesn't have the same quality, but it does have 17 guys above ten dollars right uh so it in fact has some of the same similarities to third base in terms of depth it just doesn't have the top end quality yeah so i'm not trying to show my hand or anything if any of these guys uh go come to me at the right opportunity i'll take it but my instinct with second base, especially without two-way out, is to wait. Yeah. Interesting, because if you're not going to lock yourself into that top-end tier, there might not really be a big difference or any type of fear of getting anybody else.

If there's, what would you say, 12 guys with $10 plus? It's kind of all in the same general range. Well, you've got Glaber projected projected for 17 at a one this this fangraph showing the adp so at a 100 adp you were saying um but you also have uh luis arise uh with a 14 projection that's three dollars less uh and his adp is like 75 points higher so i'm not saying i'm going to get Luis Urias. I'm just saying that it's uneven. Second base is uneven by ADP, whereas there are still a $17, $10,

well, $16 now with Altuve out, $16, $10 second baseman. So if there's $16, $10 second baseman, why panic? Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, $10 second basement, why panic? for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. This episode is brought to you by Peloton.

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I don't know if there's a player i struggle with more than luisa rise i just don't get him because the contact skills are so crazy but he is a little bit of those one of those like one uh one category players that's it but he is i mean but he's so elite as far as the hitter goes in points leagues he's great but he just doesn't hit homers he doesn't steal i just don't know what to ever do with him i don't know how to value him i mean him hitting in prominent spots of the lineup are great but he's also he goes over to a team two homers the wbc in one game i was like he's in total no dude i was like let's save him save him buddy yeah exactly it's like the bb i just don't know he i struggle with him but okay

it's an interesting thing uh last thing on this um just any last takes on hensley i mean you know you've kind of danced around it not even main events i think he's fun for short term but i just and i the ovp thing is fun i struggle to see where he like swim moves past somebody you know i mean like there's no real opportunity like even like is he gonna would he take over for michael brantley a dh i i can't imagine i don't think he's a six foot six second baseman is going to end up in center what is is he that athletic he's not right no i don't i i mean i i'm not familiar with him being crazy athletic i mean he seems like he'd be a corner outfield type of guy six six foot six.

Which they don't really have a need for. But they weren't looking at it beforehand. Also, what I think is really hard about this. He has played seven games in the outfield at every level since 2019. And it was all at left field. They also have this prospect who was in AAA, Justin Durden, who might be a monster. Like just a big big big power guy and

cory jokes too right like yeah so terrible i think this is just like replacement here's the other thing with fantasy because i think a lot of people are looking they're like oh this guy's really interesting and da da da but it's like the 26th qualified second baseman on nfbc is brendan donovan and brendan donovan has made some swing changes to try to tap into more power winning a gold glove he's not coming off the field and it's like would you really do you really want to wait and get david hensley and pass up guys like brendan donovan or you said right right like it's not worth it like so how high like uh hensley to me is a bench pick it's like somebody you think is gonna you know he's gonna play in the first couple weeks and maybe you like something about

the schedule or it's super cheap and super deep and you just know he's gonna play so hensley's a good like al only uh first week fab run pickup where you know you had you had a hole coming out of the draft right yeah oh god i hope that wasn't was labor fab last night i really hope that was a live reaction of the oh god did this just happen um i would rather have michael massey michael massey's uh 36 there's a more opportunity there for him to become a second baseman all year yeah well i also think just categorically he's just he's just a better pick for speed combo with michael massey so hensley's fun we'll watch it if you're in a deep league and draft is over and none of these guys are options that's i think we're looking at hensley when you're getting into drafts i don't

think it is unless it's like a 24 team craziness or something like that. But the Altuve injury hurts. Luckily, Arenado's not bad. Another one we just got in here was the Juan Soto injury, and we'll have to see the severity. I'm curious at your take on this. Juan Soto is currently day-to-day after suffering a mild left oblique strain, and he did this in a B minor league game.

When they say that that i'm not sure if they were running a side game which they do because this is what they do in spring they've got spring games they've got minor league spring games and then sometimes they run these side session games so how they it doesn't matter but i just don't know if it was in the minor league scrimmage yeah it's a scrimmage based game either way he got hurt and they're kind of poo-pooing a little bit they took him immediately out but the problem here is right here you know left oblique strain even if mild how concerning is that to you for juan soto especially if they don't give us any concrete

information of like you know the severity of the and i know they're saying mild and stuff like that day-to-day but that day-to-day could easily turn into starting the season on the IL. Yeah, and he'd been playing really well this spring, and I'd hope for a little bit of a power resurgence. I'm not that worried yet, although time is short. Opening day is 10 days away. So he could miss the beginning of the season, even with a mild one, because the whole problem with oblique strains is that you just have to wait until it doesn't hurt anymore.

That's how it was explained to me by Zach Greinke. And then I have to try, and if it hurts, then that's basically a setback, and I have to wait longer. So it's a real tricky injury, then that's basically a setback and I have to wait longer. You know, so it's like it's a real tricky injury. And it's also super important because baseball is a really rotational sport that that's why these obliques have been have been a big deal is because people, you know, hip shoulder separation is the source of trunk rotation and trunk rotation is a velo, whether it be batted ball speed, bat, bat speed, or, or, or pitch speed. So if you want velo, you're going to rotate your trunk real fast. Well, how do you rotate your trunk real fast?

How do you create hip shoulder separation? A lot of times you over rotate where you over rotate your back shoulder to get more of that hip shoulder separation. When you over rotate, your obliques are pre-stretched before you, before they need to fire. And so, uh, I think it's, it can be sometimes bad mechanics or it's just an oblique heavy sport. It's a sport that uses the obliques a lot. There are these little muscles that help you turn your body. Also, if you want to talk about a player that is very movement oriented in their swing look at soto who's very spread out is very jumpy into pitches that are even balls i mean there there is so much

movement not arm movement physical body movement in his overall swing that like not to make it a big deal but i don't know if i were to pick a couple players that like this would be a worry from. He would be one of them just because there's so much just body stretch movement. You're talking about the rotation. Also, he had the thing pre WBC. I don't remember if that was an oblique or I can't recall what that was that held him not going into the WBC. So that's now two injuries in spring training. He suffered. Yeah. And the other tough thing is let's say i i think i'm not that worried right let's say i i don't think it's a big deal but it is something right

it is not zero whatever i'm worried it is not zero it's not like a hundred but it's not zero when you are talking about a first round pick like having any thing starts to nag at you. Cause you just, with your first round pick, you just want the stud that your whole team is built on. You don't want any questions. You know what I mean? And so like Soto right now is going sort of mid back of the first round.

Do you have the ADPs in front? Yeah. He's got, uh, as of March 1st, he's actually nine. This is looking at draft champions. He's got a high of, interestingly, seven and a low of 14. So he has never fallen out of a 15-team first round.

But is this the thing that does it, though? Or does he start grouping closer to the 14? I mean, would you rather would you rather mookie bets or what i have mookie bets above i already have mookie bets would you rather have jordan alvarez see that is the best one because remember a couple weeks ago remember my risky team i was i was all about risk and everything has kind of worked out but he also he's going to begin like i think game action the last couple days leading into the season his news his news arrow is up i think i think alvarez over soto maybe are you okay because that's i'm really struggling with

that i think i might pick alvarez over that assuming we have no information that's the thing that i'm concerned with i need some info it's really interesting too because the projection for alvarez in fangrass in the auction calculator spits out 34 for him and 38 for soto but guess what it gives soto 665 plate appearances and it gives alvarez 586 what do you think they have equal amounts of played appearances this year then they probably have basically equal projections. So you take the guy that's a little, that's going in with the health thing. Yeah,

exactly. The one who's actually playing games, especially if he starts playing the games, if he gets into a game, the next couple of days, that cements it. And I'm looking to, and there's just no information currently on what's going on with it.

Oh, Houston is the worst dude. Oh my God. Well, I'm talking soto uh soto there's no information on the so but yeah houston is the worst with the alvarez stuff but i don't think you know that alvarez is going to play in a game this week yeah as soon as he does he's he's over soto for me so if let's just for one second if soto were to hit the il and they say hey listen it's not a big deal we just want to give him the extra time he's not going to be ready right at the start so we're just going to throw the IL and they say, Hey, listen, it's not a big deal. We just want to give him the extra time. He's not going to be ready right at the start. So we're just going to throw him on and he's going to miss the first two

weeks. And they, they commit to that is Soto out of the first round. If you get all the information, even though they say, Hey, listen, it's not a biggie,

but he's going to be on the IL. Do you think he jumps out of the first round? Yeah. Yeah. There's some good options at the backend, but i think he's going to stay ahead of paul goldschmidt he's going to stay ahead of rafael devers he's going to stay ahead of mike trout you know devers has the team context around him you know he'll start bumping up against manny machado okay because i was going to say if you had the wheel pick if you had a 15 pick and soda was there

would you pair soda with you're gonna miss the first two weeks then i'll just take manny yeah i think he'd fall out of the first i think he could end up being like 15 16 might be a value at it you know would you like you have the 15th pick and let's say it's like you know riley let's say machado is there let Let's say you have Soto Machado, maybe one of the pitchers. I'll give you a Corbin Burns is sitting out there. Garrett Cole, whichever one. Like I'm taking one of the pictures.

I'm taking one of the pictures over him. And then it was, so you're going to take one of the pictures in Machado over Soto. Yeah, maybe. That's a, I mean, that's a big deal.

That's a big deal to continue to watch. Another big deal. Jacob to Grom made his cactus league debut on Sunday. He went three innings, shut out baseball 34 pitches in that I'd actually noted. Remember in the game I saw, he only needed 24 pitches to get through two. And this time it was against big leaguers.

He didn't walk anybody. He struck out for 28 of 34 pitches were thrown for strikes. And his fastball was in the sitting between 97, 99. I think even might've hit triple digits. So, you know, we've talked a lot about Jacob to ground.

We don't have to go nuts, but now you have in game action thoughts on seeing him out there and the effectiveness up against the Mariners. 140 innings. He's the best pitcher in baseball. Boom. The race to 140 innings. So nothing has really changed because it's,

it's all about like if he stays healthy you continuously get to see his stuff and how amazing it is and how incredible it is and he finally got out in game action which makes everybody happy but it didn't really change the narrative though right yeah yeah so i i it's the same it's the same i i i struggle with that man there's just it's it's a it's a yolo picked for me where it's it's could go badly but you don't want to yolo you don't want to yolo in a main event i don't know okay maybe maybe yolo i mean i'm kind of a yoloer i yolo yeah i like to yolo i didn't get to yolo with jacob degram unfortunately this offseason because in my positional drafting and stuff you know like i don't get to do nfbc or uh nfc nfbc like like draft champions and stuff in arizona for whatever reason by the way it's gambling we have everything

we have all the casino we have all the apps we have drafting all that but nfbc didn't get their license set with arizona so i can't go and do all my draft champions if i'm doing high dollar ones for people so i don't think i'm a crazy person i'm definitely a lot more safe and a little bit more risk averse but when i do something like a tgfbi i'm gonna play more yolo because that's an opportunity to play yolo and it's a gajillion because there's an overall rise exactly and i'm looking more yolo in that respect so that's why i would do the i had tatis and jordan alvarez and i took uh o'neill cruz and stuff like that jacob degrom kind of sits in that world i just wonder how much uh if we can have

another acronym in here fomo is going to happen with jacob degrom if he's healthy and what the narrative is going to look like like Because everyone universally says 140 innings, he's the best pitcher in baseball. That's so many less innings than any normal given pitcher. I don't know. Everyone's going to be more like 180 this year. But still, I mean, that's a significant amount less. It's just like how big of an injury is everybody expecting from Jake Goodground?

We know he's going to get hurt. He's going to have an IL stint and stuff like that but i feel like the the significant injury is being baked in so much but i guess it doesn't make you feel good when he's been babied this entire spring i mean like are you okay with the babying of him this entire spring or is it more warning signs no that's that's going to be part of the picture okay all right no more jacob to grow we'll get out of that i i it's it's yeah no change really yeah no change all right uh real quick thoughts you mentioned it before brandon nemo currently week to week with a low grade uh right knee and ankle sprain what is that doing for draft status for you for this coming weekend with nemo he's interesting because he's been a value, I think in drafts, um,

because he kind of provides value in terms of, um, such a great OBP that, you know, he, he adds those runs and, um, you know, I kind of believe in the 15 to 16 home run power. And, and, you know, kind of believe in the in 15 to 16 home run power and and you know if he was healthy with the legs five to ten stolen bases it's one of those things it doesn't stand out in any one way but he keeps you keeps you going he is a one category stud in runs but he's not a zero he's not zero categories otherwise so he's he's been somebody that i've gotten in drafts because i feel like he's fallen a little bit lower than he should. People tend to be looking for stolen bases or for homers when he goes.

And when you take Nimmo, you're not really solving either of those riddles. You know what I mean? You're just sort of kicking the can down the road a little bit. But with this, he's a little bit less likely to be on one of my teams. But he says he's going to be ready for opening day. Week to week is a really weird, really weird way to put it. When there's one week to opening day. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Just say week to week. So he could be ready or couldn't. Oh, good. I don't like that. A couple of these are non-injury based notes, but they're important. Wait, so he could be ready or couldn't? Oh, good. I don't like that. A couple other. These are non-injury based notes, but they're important. I think this could be sneaky.

I don't know about you. Jerks and Profar coming off of his time in the WBC with Netherlands signed a just under $8 million guaranteed deal with the Rockies, which also has some incentive based stuff. But it's already been said that he's going to play left field and lead off for the team. And his ADP, because he hasn't been drafted anywhere, has been post-400 across the board. I looked at fantasy pros like ECR,

their consensus ranks on all the sites, and it was 404, Jerks and Profar was. It's obviously going to come up, but you're talking about a leadoff hitter in Colorado when 15-5 last year with the padres what say you about profile is there anything in there that excites you especially for the big discount you're going to get yeah yeah there's a weird thing about him is that when he barrels the ball he pulls it every single time so i think he pulled he had like 15

barrels last year and he pulled every single one of them. So he's like one of those guys that just takes a shot every once in a while. And it works out for him. I think he's going to be more of a 260 hitter in, in Colorado, but 260 with, you know, 15 to 20, 15 to 17 homers and five plus steals.

He's a top 50 outfielder now, you know, and I'm taking him ahead of um you know people seem to like seth brown a lot and i i just see the poor batting average you know um lures gurel jr i think has playing time risk that's a crowded arizona outfield and you know who how that shakes out we're not exactly sure lane thomas is a is an old guy on a team that wants to get young i mean he's i mean he's not super old what is he like 29 shut up you know i also don't know if they have any other like but he's not he's like kind of a low ceiling guy right if they find if like garrett if garrett stone or any of those

other guys goes off even jake will do whatever like it's a good point i think thomas is not going to stop him so i don't know i take profile over uh some of those guys and um you know whit merrifield he's espanol is there you know like is whit merrifield a everyday starter i don't know so profile doesn't again he's a little bit like nimmo where he's not going to hit you a bunch of homers or studio, a bunch of bases, but he's really good oatmeal. Yeah.

And also like what his role is very different than what it was with the Padres Padres. You had a lot of like team leaders and, you know, he was trying to be a cog and trying to get playing time. And now he's going into a position where they're like, as there's Chris Bryant, but it's just like a,

it's a bigger spot for him to kind of work and build for a contract. And he's going to get the lead off in Colorado. I think it's interesting to see where he's going to, where it's going to finish out for these drafts is, you know, next 10 days. Like, what is this going to actually look like?

Because it's 480 P out based on what you're saying. I think he's probably right around the two hundreds, right? Yeah. He's going to, he's going to, he's going to zoom up. It's also a little bit sad for some of the sleepers we had on the rest

of this roster. I think it is an indication that the Rockies are going to pretend they're contenders again. And that means Mike Moustakis is going to be the third baseman. That's kind of interesting. But it also means that Nolan Jones and Michael Toglia the third baseman that's kind of interesting uh but it also means that uh nolan jones and michael toglia uh i mean jones is i think if he's not in the minors yet he's already he's got he's he's got a ticket to ride um it says he's h for the team though yes but charlie blackman has to dh for the team now good point by the way i get to have one of those moments real quick, by the way.

It's actually Tolia. The G is silent with Michael Tolia. So I get to have a very exciting minor league game. I thought you said Toglia. I'm going to pretend you said Toglia, so I got to correct you, so I didn't have to pretend I said sorry. I think Tolia is going to make it. He's just the in-house guy.

He played last year. They like him. He's playing a lot in spring and nolan jones has that option so i think tolia is going to make it as the first base backup first base dh corner outfield guy and uh i don't know that's that's the only guy that's kind of interesting you know it hurt alhers montero like you said that was one of those kind of interesting. It hurt Al Harris Montero. It hurt Al Harris Montero. Like you said, that was one of those kind of guys. He's kind of taken off there.

And Nolan Jones, I mean, really both of those guys got smacked by Profar and Moustakis. Montero was more affected by Moustakis. And now this really does affect Nolan Jones. It's a weird situation. They always do this. I don't understand it with the Rockies. But it creates really, I think Mike Moustakis is intriguing whatever anybody says I saw him I saw his first at bats with the Rockies on the back

fields he was going up against Brad Hand he looks stiff but the bat speed was still there his legs weren't caught up or anything like that but he was so happy with his performance and he hit up Brad Hand in that little uh outing I mean he's in 500 so far in spring it can't be totally dead yeah him in colorado jerks and profile in colorado both really interesting pieces there's just really weird situation going on with the braves we'll kind of quickly get out of these but the braves i don't know if you've seen this but von grisham five straight games of not starting and the team has now openly said that um orlando arcia is going to make the roster and one of

Shoemake or him will be the second shortstop, but they're making it seem like, I don't think the shortstop that my take on this is, I don't think they like the shortstop thing that's happening with him and they don't know what to do with it. Cause the bats live, but seeing a guy at his level vying for this job to not play for five straight days,

you know, is super sketchy. It's sus as people younger than me would say. Yeah, I think Arcea is probably the starter. I think the team thinks we're such a good team top to bottom. Why take a chance defensively? Why take a chance defensively at a time when the bases are bigger and there's going to be more bang-bang plays in the first place?

We're a championship contender. let's just have a championship defender you know and then and then von grissom can go quote-unquote work on his defense in the minors it's in this case probably the number one thing they'll want to see from him but it is weird because spring training doesn't matter why don't they just continue to see his defense now? It really smacks like a decision has been made. And then I just don't know where Von Grissom's future lies because Ozzie Albies is signed for a long time. They had worked him in the outfield a little bit last year. They were starting that process when Albies was coming back to get him signed. He's a corner outfielder, I guess, because Harris seems ensconced sconce and center too i mean these guys are all signed to like 10-year deals so yeah i

don't think they planned around enough i think it's super uh suspect the whole thing and unfortunately i think it's making von grissom someone i don't want to draft i don't want to touch him right now because i don't know what it's going to look like also they've got a rotation thing going on where jared schuster and dylan dodd are both competing for the final spot. Dodd was really good. My numbers hate them. I was going to say, which guy do you like out of this list? I think Dodd has an 88 stuff plus.

And Schuster, it's Schuster with an SH Schuster has a 72 stuff plus that's not going to make anybody happy these numbers are through the 15th so there is at least one

start on here that's not on there and Dodd had a really good one he had like a four inning game where he pitched really well the other day i know and i know the results are there i tend not to look too much towards results and i would like to remind people that there are uh dylan dodd was not ranked as a prospect uh by fangraphs and i don't think schuster was either so schuster i think is that the schuster should be one of the top schuster was team rank one was he the top prospect for them right now yeah he um because they've used up all their prospects he's only a 45 future value yeah their their system is pretty depleted right now so schuster's up there. So Schuster seems like the guy, and he was throwing some strikes,

and fastball was flying and stuff like that. But it definitely seems like a weird, odd combo. I played a 7K9 in AAA last year. So neither one of these guys was supposed to be a top prospect, and the stuff numbers aren't positive. So I'm not jumping in. I mean, I generally don't like rookie starters. Yeah.

Well, also RIP to Brandon Fott. Not any morbid thing. Not actually. Come on. To his rotation spot. To his rotation spot. Yeah, right. Nelson has picked it up of late,

and the results are starting to match his stuff numbers more. So it's become a Nelson-Dre Jameson battle for now. I had talked to Fott right before he went on the bus to go and pitch behind Madison Bumgarner. He seemed like in such a good spot. Another really unique thing, and I really thought I was onto something with this, Dre Jameson was working solo in camp with the relievers.

They had this side section where it was like all the reliever guys. Dre was there. And I was like, boy, Fott's good. Nelson's struggling. Dre is with the relievers. Dre Fott did everything he possibly could.

And then I was at the camp a couple of days ago and Dre Jameson threw a starter on the backfield. He was on the backfields and he threw a full session and Ryan Nelson got out there. So I still think Fott, if you have any spots, I think Fott is up within the first month. And I think he's still someone you can get at the back end of your draft. Smaller leagues, no. Deeper leagues, yes. But it is really unfortunate.

So to RIP to the excitement of Brandon Fott breaking the rotation because that did not happen, and I'm sad about that. I'm a sad panda. WBC, we got some WBC stuff plus numbers to end out the show. Some really interesting ones. You gave me kind of a list of names, and the top two are definitely going to be familiar. There's some international names that are going to jump out.

Well, actually, the number one was actually shota imanaka oh okay uh proceed yeah and uh it's only 58 pitches but uh when you have like a 134 stuff plus 58 pitches in yes there could be regression or whatever but you're likely to have an above average stuff plus it's like you know like how much is it going to regress from there there's not you don't usually have guys putting up 130s and then they end up at 95 you know i mean like maybe he ends up at 120 like like julio rias just to give you uh uh a place to kind of, okay, this is, yeah. Contacts. Julio Rios had a one 24. So I'm thinking show them Monica who had a one 34 might end up at a one 24. Hey,

that's Julio Rios territory. Sandy Alcantara had a one 19. So, you know, Jordan Hicks, one 19. So good. This is really good stuff.

Even if it comes down from there and imanaga is really interesting because um you know he's actually and this is we're going to talk about age a little bit more he's 29 years old so i don't know his exact contract uh status in japan but it's likely that he could come over it's a lot easier for him to come over because he's not part of that rookie pool yeah you're post 25 um in japan or internationally once you're outside of 25 you're kind of open game it's open season especially in japan if they want to um if there's like posting and whatnot it's just about team posting a player if they're still locked into a contract that's it yeah and he had a 204 era and 158 innings last year um and then in 2021 he had a 283 era in 149 innings i haven't seen i don't see bulk here so maybe there's some injury history

he's topped out at 170 innings it looks like uh in 2019 so maybe there's an injury history, but for his career, nine strikeouts, one strikeout per inning, basically nine K-9, 324 ERA, really small walk rate. So this doesn't this looks like a guy who could pitch in America. And so I don't know that I would zoom him to the top of your boards without more context about his contract and his injury history. But just looking at the stuff number and looking at his stats and looking at his age alone makes him somebody that I want to maybe draft in first year drafts, first year player drafts. And he's not going to be necessarily my first pick, but he is somebody that i have a first year player draft that's coming up and he's definitely on my list for that uh the next two are interesting names from america that you've heard before carlos hernandez small as a short appearance i tried

to limit it to 25 pitches per appearance and more to get starters he's at 27 so he's right there in between reliever and starter um jose de leon is right behind him at 64 pitches uh in one appearance um with these numbers so both those guys showing improved stuff uh jose de leon is in the twins bullpen most likely i can say where is he is he still in base i mean because he was a heralded raised prospect uh for many years and then was over with the reds uh my fastball is back and as a reliever i think he's pretty interesting i mean you just left to look at the the career of jorge lopez who's in that bullpen to see somebody who struggled along as a starter and immediately became an impact reliever we might be seeing that with both these guys because carlos her Carlos Hernandez's best pitch is his four seamer.

He has if he was in the rotation, he had the best he would have the best fastball in the Royals rotation. That was his that was his calling card. It's a it's damning by faint praise, given the rest of that Royals rotation. But his command has been bad and that could be mitigated in short stints. If he's a if he's a reliever, then he can stop throwing whatever pitches he can't command. He can slim it down. He can get one target, and he can just blow people away. So I think Carlos Hernandez is interesting.

I think both these guys are interesting, but it's mostly like a stash for later. Like, you know, things that have to change for them to, I don't think Carlos Hernandez is in that Royals rotation. And I don't think DeLeon is one of the final three guys in the Twins bullpen. So I don't even think he's a holds guy. But Carlos Hernandez has the stuff to be the Royals closer. So if there's any injury to Scott Barlow

and Hernandez is in that bullpen, he immediately, if there is holds, and this is a real limited use case, but it's super interesting sometimes for people. SPRP leagues, Carlos Hernandez. If you want to get a few extra holds out of a starting pitcher slot, that might be a place to look. Oh, that's really sneaky because I like him more.

Because I actually still think this team is going to go in on Chapman and then they have Barlow. They also have Stalmont that I think Hernandez could be really sneaky for holds based leagues. And that is a really great strategy for dropping him in on SP spot. I like that a lot. Big fastball. Tonight's starter, Roki Sasaki, is, of course, in the top five. He throws he like sits ninety nine. So, of course, he's up here sitting right between Julio Urias and Sandy Alcantara.

So he has legitimate major league stuff, but we gave the context earlier. How old is Roki Sasaki? 21, I believe. So he is not eligible. He's so he could come over stateside the problem is he would be stuck to the international uh signing pool situation which is around a five point whatever it's usually not over six million dollar caps that teams have to sign just like the ethan solace or the young international kids from like the Dominican Republic, he would be under those same guidelines and rules, which wouldn't be enticing for the team to post him. It wouldn't be enticing

for him. So the only other way around it is wait until you're at least 25 years old. Then the team can go into full on posting and then you can get a full on contract. So unfortunately, even though he might be the most fascinating and awesome international prospect, probably over the next four years, it's going to be for the next four years because he's not coming over until 2027. There's just no incentive for his team to post him if they can make a million dollars off it. You know, the posting system has now created a disincentive for Japanese teams to post their guys until they're 25. Because what did you say, too? It was a 20% of whatever the contract is. It's 20% of the contract.

So if he signs for 5.5, that's like 1.1 or something. Yeah, so that's not these big paydays that they used to get. And in the meantime, they are, as you said off air, selling jerseys, getting people into the stadium. Yeah, they can make that in half of a season, easy. They're winning games with him. $1 million is not a reason to send him packing. It does get closer when they're about to run out of team control.

So it's a lot like in America where, oh, this team has a guy that's going to be a free agent next year or the year after. That's when you're going to start to hear Roki Sasaki's name a little bit more but just to give you some context of how long four years is in the life of a pitching a pitching prospect or somebody like this you know we just had Shintaro Fujinami come over and I was like so breathless excited about Shintaro Fujinami like four years ago you know like I like we were just getting and i think it might even be it might have been wbc related or something but there was just like it was like oh here's this guy he's sitting 99 and he's got this amazing forkball and like you know then i was like oh when does he when could he come over and it was like oh 2023 you

know and in the meantime he's been hurt a lot turned into a reliever his command problems have been exposed you know so like four years is a long time to to wait for somebody if you if you have a league that you think will be around in four years and you can just sit on him take him but uh you know i would what do you i would consider him like a solace yeah well and that's exactly what we're talking about off air too is like what you could consider if you have an open format where you can draft just any, you know, open world,

you treat him like Ethan solace because you know, you're not getting four years of production and you're Ethan solace actually might break that. He might be like three years of production, but anytime you take any of these international guys or low a guys and you invest in them, you're three to four years away. So if you're out taking

yasser mercedes with the twins or anthony gutierrez or uh yosue de la pala with the the dodgers you're three to four years away from those guys roki if you consider the same thing you could take him now and just sit for the four years but where would you take him i would take him very high because he will be whenever he's out as long as nothing drastic happens he'll be the number one first year player without question he will be the guy and because you'll still be young enough and the stuff as long as it doesn't digress so he did you give the actual number did i miss it what was his uh his stuff plus number uh it was right between urias and alcantara so i think 125 let me get it out okay that's a big number yeah it's a good number it's uh you know for example on my player ranks for more context um you know corbin

burns has a 126 you know these are these are smaller samples you know uh but it does but you know this sort of stuff comes online really quickly and that's that's why i'm reporting them you know we we have more information now that we did uh before he pitched in front of the machine so the last name uh before we get out of here is another japanese guy yoshinobu yamamoto um he threw 60 pitches that's that's enough to know about his fastball and his breaking ball at least you know and he had a 118 stuff plus basically in a tie with Christian Javier a couple ticks above Sonny Gray and Hugh Darvish so Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a guy to remember. And what's cool about him is that I don't think he's going to be on as many radars. He's 24.

And depending on what happens the next couple of days, if he goes out and shoves tonight, if he's pitching or if he pitches in the championship game for Japan, then everybody's going to remember. But people might forget because he might not pitch in the next couple games right like they have guys like Otani and Darvish you know like if Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn't pitch people are going to forget but and also he's been a reliever for a big part of his his time in the in Japan but in the last couple of years he's started 193 innings in both of them with an ERA under two. He had a 139 ERA in 193 innings in 2021 and then 196 in 2022. And now he's showing up on the Stuff Plus list as having similar-ish stuff to Christian Javier. And I'm sure he doesn't have the same command issues. I'm not going to report the command number because it's so full of noise in a small sample like this.

But I would just, you know, I'm just guessing. I am looking at it, but I'm trying not to look at it. But just guessing also from these really low walk totals in Japan, you know. Sometimes people have bad command and low walk totals. But he had a 1.9 BB9 in 2021 and a 2.0 last year. I'm guessing he has pretty good command. So Yoshinobu Yamamoto turning 25 next year. So he may get posted at the end of the season next year.

And you don't have to wait four years like Roki Sasaki. And he seems like he's in his prime right now. So that, that those are some names for you. Maybe they belong on project prospect, but they're coming out of the WBC at shows. Also Carlos Hernandez and, and Jose Leon,

you know, resurfacing is something worth noting. I love it. That's some good stuff. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast. Cause that's going to do it for us. Go and check us out over at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels. Speaking of

project prospect, you and I will be doing that tomorrow. I think I forgot to mention this on the pod in case you don't follow on Twitter or miss the announcement on The Athletic, but if you're in New York City, I'm having an event at Other Half Brewing on March 30th

where I have a sandwich that I've made called the Knuckleball, and a beer that we made together called Staring Into the Shift. There is a panel, the RSVP is closed for the panel, but there's a watch party that starts at 4pm because there's games going on

that day, during the day. So there's a watch party at other half, starts at 4pm, March 30th, and you don't have to RSVP for that. RSVP for that. And you can come by and get a sandwich and toast a beer for with me. Although I have to be careful how many beers I have because I am on the panel later. A lot of beers.

All right. So go and hit, you know, up, you know, Saris on Twitter. That's the easy follow. Go and do that. That sounds like an awesome event. I wish I was in New York to do it. Theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. Sign up today, friends.

That is going to do it. Thank you for hanging out with us. It is Eno. It's Welsh. I'll talk to you guys again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Thanks for listening.