Rates & Barrels - Opening Day Takeaways & 2024 MLB Season Predictions!

Episode Date: March 29, 2024

Join Eno, Trevor & DVR as they recap Opening Day and share their predictions for the 2024 MLB Season! From Garrett Crochet's excellent start to Royce Lewis' homer and early exit with an injury, they discuss some of the highest and lows from the first "full" day of the season before making several predictions for the upcoming campaign. Rundown 1:03 Opening Day Takeaways 18:57 Rookie of the Year Predictions 30:28 Cy Young Award Predictions 41:53 MVP Predictions 45:14 AL Division Winners 48:46 NL Division Winners 52:53 World Series Matchup & Winners Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Trevor on Twitter: @IamTrevorMay Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Nate Taylor and I cover the Kansas City Chiefs for the Athletic. I love locker rooms after games. When I walk in that locker room, I have the eyes and ears of our subscribers. As a journalist, it's my duty to ask the hard questions and to get some true honesty from athletes and coaches. It's a real joy to cover football, to be a hunter and a gatherer of news, to get something that's revealing that you may not be able to see on television. I'm from Kansas City, so I've watched this team

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The Athletic is now included along with everything the New York Times has to offer when you subscribe to the New York Times. You can find out more at nytimes.com slash athletic. Welcome to Raids and Barrels, it's Friday, March 29th, it is another live one, Derek the Rhymer, Enosaris, Trevor May, all here with you on the day after opening day, or at least opening day here in the States, which I count as real opening day. We need more than one game for it to be opening day. Even when we used to do the Sunday night baseball opener

back in the day, I never liked that standalone first game. I liked the full slate. I liked to just dive right in. That's the best way to start the season. So I feel like now we are off and running. It was a fantastic opening day. We're gonna dig into some takeaways from that. We've got award predictions and World Series predictions.

So we're gonna go through those and we've got our deep dive pitching series focusing on changeups today. So we're gonna get to that a little bit later on in the show as well. Gentlemen, let's get right after it. Takeaways from opening day in 2024, mostly highs. I think the biggest surprise of all for me is Garrett Crochet. A guy that's had injury trouble, never really had a full run even back in

his University of Tennessee days as a starter over a full season, comes out on opening day for the White Sox and pitches extremely well against the Tigers and it leads to a million different questions of well, okay, what do we expect from him for these next couple of months and then what does the shape of the season look like for a guy like Garrett Crochet who's never had anything close to that full starters workload over a full year before. Trevor, the latter part of that question, how do you even plan out what the season looks like for a guy like this who's had so many setbacks and up and downs to get to this point?

Short answer is you don't really. You kinda have to take it, they're gonna probably take it like two weeks by two weeks at the beginning and then just kinda go from there. Just try to get him to whatever his max has been or close to and then start tapering, which if he's a starter the whole time,

it could be in May. It's just kinda how you have to do it. Theering, which, you know, if he's a starter the whole time, it could be in May. It's just kind of how you have to do it. The guy's electric. I think watching him and Scoobl next to each other, you can see a lot of similarities and you can see what his potential is. And so he's exciting. But again, like if you're not on the field, it just doesn't matter. And taking it step by step for him is going to be the biggest, the biggest thing.

But fortunately, he's on a team that is not gonna compete, they're not interested in competing, and he's gonna get the opportunities to get his starts in. It's not like they're gonna need to move him out of the spot for someone doing a better job, or they can be patient with him, and that's a really, really good situation

for Crochet to be in, in my opinion. They don't have to wait till the end, yeah. They can just run the innings now, and when he runs out, if that's July, they can throw him in short relief for a few months at the end of the season. Like whatever their plan is, front loading the bulk of the innings is always the best plan because injuries could derail your plan if you try to structure it perfectly. And for contending teams, that's that line they have to walk.

Like the anti-Buhler, right? You know, Buhler is coming back, but they want him for the post-season. They're going to, you know, they don't even know what they're going to do. They were discussing still today, like, is he going down to Arizona for extended spring training or is he, you know, going to the minors for a rehab stint because they just, they want to save all those bullets for the most important games. But a couple of things stood out for me. You know, I always gravitate towards the pitching side and,

you know, there was the good, the returns from injury. I think Shane Bieber, you know, looked really great yesterday. The Vila was up. He also discovered over the over the winter that he'd been he changed his his breaking ball grip. And he said that he'd done that unbeknownst to himself and that that was a little upsetting but it was at least relieving to have figured it out. He looked like he had figured it out. His breaking ball stuff plus was big up and his V-Low was back up and he just looked really

really good. Frankie Montas looked pretty good, you know, he got out there. I don't know if it's ever going to be the same level as where he was at his vet every very best In terms of V long stuff, I think it was more like 94 So do we had a question is a seam orientation there for Bieber what happened was that? He was chasing a movement pattern Like he was like I wanted like have this movement on my curveball and I want to have like I want it to be the same Like he was chasing consistency on the curve ball. And he said, they just kept choking it

and choking it harder. And what he ended up doing was moving along the horseshoe. So it was actually a grip thing. It was like a hundred percent of grip thing. And in fact, when Chris Lang and the driveline guy presented it to Beaver, he said, well, how much is a grip thing? How much is it other stuff?

And Langley was like, 100% a grip thing. Which is like kind of embarrassing as a pitcher to be like, oh. I've thrown this bitch my whole life and I accidentally changed the grip. But he said that once he sort of got over that embarrassment, he was especially relieved. Yeah, Montaz on the flip side. Yeah,

that's that's a caveat. I think in terms of results, that's a caveat. But in terms of process, you know, the Velo, yeah, the Velo being up and the breaking ball being back is huge. I think he could be I don't know if he's gonna be peak peak, but I think he could be back to sort of 2022 Bieber where, you know, he struck out more in the batter printing and looked pretty good. On the flip side, Zach Galen was down big and 91, 8 on the fastball. That's really big and stuff plus just across the board, 80s, no hundreds, not above average on anything. And I don't know why. You know, he did try to play it really slow this spring because of the extra workload.

And I saw him in spring and we talked about that. But I don't know. That worries me, man. Because it's like he could get a whole tick back and still be down. I mean, going to the World Series, it's a lot more pitching. And it like, look at what the Astros do every year. Like you see Verlender every year. It's a lot more pitching. Look at what the Astros do. You see Verlander every year. He's like, I'm gonna start later and later and later

because he's just playing an extra month. He's playing a month longer than everybody every single year. That wears on you from all kinds of angles. So it's so interesting. You would think four months off would be enough. Rarely is to fully get back to resting or three and a half months. It's especially as you get older.

So he's just dealing with that for the first time, which it could be a little bit of like, take it slow, but it could also be like, he's still feeling a little fatigue is going to take him a little bit longer to get back in full shape. Gallon had 15 swings and misses in this, uh, this outing, which is a little bit surprising given the stuff deterioration, but the Diamondbacks also put up a 14-burger in the third inning. And that is some wiggle room to work with. So I wonder if he backed off a little bit, going through the order, just chewing up the inning, saying, hey, we got a big lead, no need to push it here.

Let's see what start two and start three brings. He is kind of that kind of pitcher. I mean, he's a wide arsenal guy who thinks about the full season. It's possible. But I like what Trevor's saying, too, about like, you know, this extra month that he pitched Trevor. You never gave up a run in the postseason. Not any of my own. Yeah, I did catch one in.

I got DD'd one time for a single. But now, yeah, I didn't. But I also never got past the first series. So it's pretty easy to do it in like one or two. Just say nails. Nails in the post. Nails. I'm just ice in my veins.

That's what I'm known for is my postseason pedigree, my one in eight record. Also interesting, though, was that John Smoltz once said that each postseason pitch felt like three, just in terms of adrenaline and how hard you're throwing and then the fatigue afterwards. I don't know if you pitched, it looks like five innings. I don't know.

I don't know, what does that have to do with you? No, it's true. It's true because you're just anticipating it the whole time. It's just a level of energy you're burning just sitting and waiting. Like it is silent out in that bullpen. Nobody is speaking. I had to try to like loosen it up because, you know, it was like me and Ottavino had had a lot of

playoff, like had most of the playoff experience. Ottavino was on a streak at that point and I had gone like three of the last five years or something and like no one else in there had any experience really. And so it was just like a lot of chewing nails and a lot of looking at the ground. And we had to try to keep it light. But yeah, that by itself is exhausting. Then you go out there and you just release all that energy. And then when you're done, that feeling of relief,

it's like you're the most adrenaline pumped you've ever been. And then obviously the crash from that is even more intense. How does the adrenaline on opening day compare to playoff adrenaline? Is it one of the few regular season days that comes close? It's similar because this is going to sound, it's a little selfish, but players do think this.

You want to start strong. For example, you don't want Freelance to start. He had a season killer the first time out of the year and giving up 10 runs in your first outing. You're just like chipping away at that ERA the rest of the year. You're chipping away at this ERA. Now when he gets to a six, he's gonna be pumped. That's kind of where we're at now

because it's gonna take three starts even if they're all nails just to get there. So it's, but again, it's only up from here, right, I guess. So you want that a little bit, just like in the playoffs, and Seth Lugo said this better than anybody. He put it better, more concisely than ever before. I go, hey man, you excited? Congratulations, your stats are locked in.

I said that last day of the year. He's like, yes, because he was going into his platform here. So he's like, okay, that's what I have to go with. He was really worried about free agency, as many guys, just like thinking about it a lot, which is normal. And I go, playoffs, like now this is by itself, none of these, these don't matter,

but they matter, but they don't matter. So just go out there and like do your best. And he goes, and he looked at me and he paused and he goes, I just don't want it to be my fault. And I go, I go, yes, we're all thinking, Seth, just so you know, we're all thinking that. Everybody's like, okay, you know what? If things don't go well though,

please don't just let it, don't let the loss be my fault. Like, you don't wanna be the guy. But then the teams employ all these shrinks if they have them that are like, no, don't think like that. Think like, this is an opportunity, Trevor. It's right there in front of your face, guys.

This is an opportunity to show everybody how good you are. We've seen the Bill Buckner clip 10,000 times. That guy was so good, and I don't think people understand how good Bill Buckner was, because that's all they remember. And now that's all we know about Bill Buckner. He was an incredible player. He was a great hitter, and nobody talks about it. It's just that one play.

So you don't want that guy. 15 years on the radio, podcast, television, and you remembered for the F-bomb, right? That's just life? That's just yeah That's just how it goes Well a couple other things that happened yesterday on the slightly negative side Royce Lewis got hurt running the bases He's having an MRI. So we're still awaiting further details that he described having an MRI It's not just like oh, it's slightly sprained ankle. I was hoping to just be a slightly sprained ankle He said cramp and the way he kind of pulled up it did look kind of like a typical quad or hamstring at the time when I

watched it but given that he said two ACL tears you're like okay you got to check it out. I wonder if it's like his body or if it's like his training. You think if it was his training at this point he would have changed the way he trains a couple times. It seems like bad luck. I know for a fact they have changed how they trained a bunch of times so it's like it's not like a couple of times. It seems like bad luck. I know for a fact they have changed how they trained a bunch of times. So it's like, it's not like a lack of effort to figure out what's going on. It really isn't.

The guys work really hard, but it's just like made of porcelain. Like some just like things are happening. They're so weird. It's like running and he doesn't even step wrong. He just, something gives or I don't know. It's just, it's weird. Those two guys, both of them are are just they have a lot of that stuff

I was really really looking forward to Royce and of course day one something like this happened So I hope it's any like hits a homer hits a double and you're like, yeah, it's the year of Royce, baby It still could be it is a but they're looking at this time So fortunately, they're not taking the MRI to look at you know the knee or something more more severe but we'll see what happens here in the next couple of days. Justin Steele got hurt fielding a ball too. Hamstring injury for him. It's an IL stint which is going to put some pressure on the Cubs young pitching depth right away. I think this is one of the the vulnerabilities for this Cubs team. Yeah I don't I don't even know next man up. It's smiley, I think, initially, but it could be an opportunity.

Ben Brown is a reliever. Yeah. But I think Ben Brown might be the guy that gets a call up. Well, somebody we've been excited about if he can command the pitches that he's got. He's kind of what I heard this spring is he's actually slimmed down his arsenal a little bit. So he's kind of fastball power curve and trying to just focus on those two. Yeah. So those are the key injuries from opening day, but we saw a lot of good pitching performances. Tarek Schubel, Cole Regans look good.

Corbin Burns look great in his Orioles debut. Really just had the homer to travel. Throw more of those curves. Yeah. I was saying like Steph Les says you could throw more of those curves. He's never thrown a quarter of the time curves and he did that in his first start. And they just look great. Nobody really had an answer on the curves. Do you dial back the cutter just a little bit? He's never thrown a quarter of the time of curves, and he did that in his first start, and they just look great.

Nobody really had an answer on the curves. Do you dial back the cutter just a little bit? Throws it like 54% of the time. Yeah, I mean, that's your fastball. I mean, it's a great one, and that's why he uses it. But why not throw your secondaires a little bit more if they're great too? It's also April.

Curveball is going to work pretty good in April. It's just the hardest pitch to dial. It'll even out a little bit more. I bet he does throw Currballs a little bit more this year and cutters a little bit less than normal, but it will kind of, I think, shift a little bit because it still is bread and butter. And especially as his arm feels good, he's throwing six, seven. Like if you can throw a 97-mile cutter, it's just not going to hurt you that much. Do pitchers think about themselves in careers? Like there's this thing where if you look look older pitchers use the fastball less.

And I think it's just there's one way of looking at it. Just like, duh, like your fastball is getting worse and worse. So you're using other stuff more. But is there like the flip side where like I'm young and my fastball is good. So I'm going to use a lot. And later on, I can throw the curveball more when I'm older. Like, do you think people think like that? You just come up knowing that your fastball is like, you just hear that, like it should be your

pitch that sets everything else up. It should be the thing you throw the most. It should be the thing you should command the best. It should be like, and then if that becomes, if you're a strikeout guy, like for me, for example, I threw tons of fastballs because guys swung and missed at it so much. Whiff rates over 30% every year. Like you're going to throw that pitch because it is your best command pitch and it is the one you throw the most. And if you can get guys toung a miss at it so much. Whiff rates over 30% every year. Like you're going to throw that pitch because it is your best command pitch and it is the, the, the one you throw the most. And if you can get guys to swing a miss at your pitch, you throw all the time, then you should be able to get swings of miss on other ones.

And then over time that kind of doesn't happen as much because you lose as a little zip and as, as it goes away. More of like a reaction. It's more of a reaction. And then guys like you Darvish though, he's bored. Like he just wants to throw other stuff. There's guys who literally like, I could probably still guys get guys out with my fastball.

I'll be honest, last year I was like, oh my VLO is gone because it's 24 instead of 96. But then I started to throw a fastball more at the end of the year. Cause like that's still a swing and miss pitch. It just needs to be used a little bit more effectively. But like it's still there and you're in the biggest park in the league.

So just take some shots. And then the strikeout rate started to climb again. I was like, oh, here we go. It's happening. And then the season ended. But so like that was it for me, but I had the same thought. I was like, it's not gonna, it's not gonna carry me like it has in the past.

I think most guys are like that. Got one quick question about the Cubs depth options and one of their top pitching prospects, Cade Horton got to double A last year. And there were some rumblings at the beginning of spring that he might have a shot at actually making the leap all the way to the big leagues for the start of the season. That of course hasn't happened yet, but do you think he becomes an option a little sooner than expected with the Justin Steele injury?

Twenty-two drafted in 2022 in the first round. Hasn't really struggled 30% strikeout rates in the minor leagues. 27 innings at double layer higher. You know, in the modern pitching and player development. You know, strategy and the way it's done now, I think, yeah, he's an option for this year. I think that in the past, they might have said, well, he needs a full year double. You know, now it's like we need we need him. I think that in the past they might've said, well he needs a full year of AA. Now it's like, we need him. Sorry, Smiley got hurt. Ben Brown's throwing the ball over the place.

Kate Horton, you're up. I mean, he's probably the next man up. Well look at Crochet. He only throws in the minors for rehab. He like went straight to the big leagues. He still hasn't played on a team in the minor leagues. He keeps going back up to the big leagues as soon as he's ready.

So that's just not the way it is anymore. That's what COVID did. It just, guys are getting fast-tracked. No one's going five and a half years in the minors like I did. And Crochet was drafted in the COVID year too. So his final year at Tennessee gets cut short when the season stops.

He gets drafted and then finds a way to the big leagues after making a stop at the alternate site. There's a term, I hope we never have to speak of alternate sites ever again. Because that that was how brutal it would be to be crocheted like pitching against other top prospects for the White Sox and be like, yeah, I'm gonna go inside with a fastball on this one, like break somebody's I think it even happened. I think there was one player who like, got his like, wrist broken by his own pitcher. There was a time in D-backs camp when Danzby Swanson was still in that organization where Yohan Lopez, remember that name, quick pitched him on a backfield that hit him in the face.

Oh. Yeah. Yeah. That happened. Yeah. Woo. Yohan Lopez. And Yohan Lopez didn't really have much of a future with the Dimebacks after that. I've been his teammate. Hey, I'll say it right now, Yohan Lopez, you need someone to go out and have your back though. He's a guy. He did it with us at the Mets too.

I got to just, he had some spats with some people and we were like, we love this guy because he was just filling in and he didn't care. So I was like, he's got to have this guy. He was a bruiser. He was like the goon. He was a bruiser. He was like the goon. He was our goon. That's the thing that I'll always remember about Yohan Lopez was the quick pitching Bansby

Swanson on a backfield. Not a way to endear yourself to the organization hitting the first overall pick in the face that way. Ever tried to break a bad habit and felt like you're climbing Everest in flip flops? Yeah, we've been there too. But here's a breath of fresh air. Fume. It's not about giving up, it's about switching up.

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We're gonna get awards first. We have AL and NL Rookie of the Year as we kick things off. Let's start in the AL. Let's start with you. You know, who do you have winning the AL Rookie of the Year award this year? Dude, just a pair of absolute hams. Have you seen these quads in the big leagues these days? Wyatt Langford is just on two tree trunks, you know?

Him and Henry Davis yesterday, I was like, what am I looking at? Like, are those legs? You know? Like, Langford really impressed me, not because of the results, but he hung in there on every pitch. He came up with an out. I think, I don't think it's two outs because he made an out. It was an out in the bottom of the 10th with the tying with the winning run on base and did not look overmatched was smiling. You know, I don't like, I'm not too much of a like scouting McScouterson, like looking at the body language, but dude was like, yeah, man, this is why I'm here. This is, I'm about ready to rock this, you know, and he didn't, but it's

okay. You know, like okay. He put the ball in play and he got the guy to third and he was fouling off some really nasty pitches and he hung in there. He just looked ready to go, dude. He's done it everywhere. This guy looks like he's nothing faces him. He's ready to go. Advanced relative to the lack of big league experience up to this point. It's funny that with all the buzz around Wyatt Langford, if not for Langford, his teammate, Evan Carter, would probably be the odd-zoned favorite to be the AL Rookie of the Year. And we've seen a little bit of Evan Carter already on a big stage, no less.

So it's just, it's kind of funny to me how that's playing out. So I'm assuming you're going kind of with the air quotes chalk and assuming Langford is going to win the AL rookie of the year award. I was tempted to do kind of like what I'm going to take Evan Carter is like you know like as a bit of a trolley thing. But one thing that bothered me about Carter's run through the postseason is that they had identified a hole and they started picking at it. So I'm just, he just gonna have to work at it.

He's got a little bit of the Cody Bellinger body and approach. And he's got a little bit of the Cody Bellinger hole at the top of the zone that Cody came up with. So, and for his worth, like maybe some of the Cody Bellinger upside, he's got power, he's got speed, he's got a great discipline at the plate. So he just needs to kind of figure out. Right now what he's doing is just spitting on everything high. And maybe that'll work. We'll see.

There's a good group of contenders for this award even though Langford is the favorite. Who do you like on the AL side, Trevor? I'm gonna go with the dark horse that probably no one's thought of, but he's not breaking with the team, Jackson Holliday. Nobody thought of that, did you? No, I was just really impressed with him in spring. I don't see him struggling a lot in AAA,

and I also don't think there's a lot in front of him. I don't think a lot needs to happen to get him up. I think they're one injury away in a spot. Gets him opportunity to play. A lot of people are giving the Chris Bryant, he might be held down for service time. That's just not the way things are being operated anymore like that because there's other ways now

to maintain control over players. So he's impressive, he's got the pedigree, he's got this great support system too. So like even when slumping or struggling happens, he's got people to talk to that are just as good as anybody at helping. Exactly. Like he's just, he has an advantage in those ways that even the thing that really sinks rookies, I think that where they like get in over their heads and whatever the ones with the best

support systems that that's they learn that stuff the fastest. So that's kind of what I'm looking at and he's just I'm just fully bought in on it I just I love watching the Orioles play man I just think he's gonna plug right into that group because they're all young and they're all so excited to be there every day and it's like it's just it's just a perfect situation and he's gonna get lots of pitches to hit because there's other guys they have to avoid in that in that lineup that have proven at the big league level so I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Justin Holliday

came up in like three weeks and then ended up winning the award. It doesn't have to be the guy given the quality of the lineup in Baltimore. That's probably true a little bit for Wyatt Langford, but I think there's a little more pressure on him relatively speaking when you look at those two lineups. They see Langford as an immediate, heart of the order sort of guy.

Holliday might work his way up simply because they have the luxury of playing it that way. I'm taking Langford just because of the chalk factor. I think that little extra time could make the difference. I think it's going to be a great year for this crop of AL rookies. I got a dark horse real quick. Yeah. Parker Meadows. Yeah. In Detroit, what I really like about him is that he'll steal some

bags and he'll hit some homers and you know, like there's luck in these things every year. There are players that win it who aren't as good as the other rookies, you know, like, because it's a one year reward. And so basically, if Parker Meadows gets lucky on batting average, you know, he could have something that looks better across the board because he will hit for power, he will steal and I think what was interesting on opening day was he played against the lefty. So if they're going to play him almost every day, he has the chance of racking up those counting stats. Yeah, I think that's a great call. I mean, an important piece for this Tigers team here in 2024. Let's flip it over to the NL side.

Trevor, you get the first crack at the NL side. Who do you like for the NL Rookie of the Year award? So this one's interesting, because there's a few guys that I don't even know if they're rookies anymore, which is tough, but I think it's gonna be one of the, another Jackson, maybe Chirios. Again, it's a lot of the same things with,

except for obviously, a dad being Matt Holliday, but a lot of the similar things to the other Jackson, you know, electric and gonna get a lot of opportunity. When it comes down to it, that's gonna be, you gotta get the bulk. You gotta get the body of work and the opportunity. And so being in a position where maybe your team might contend, but you need to be a part of that,

that's kind of like the perfect storm for me. I am a fan of that. I'm still, it's so funny when you play, I like on purpose avoided a lot of like the big prospect list and things because you don't wanna see, I just learned early, you don't wanna see who's coming to take everyone's jobs. Let's see what they do at the big league level

and then suddenly I'm like, oh no, now I gotta like do this again. Like I haven't done this since 2009 when I was a prospect and I wanted to read all the lists. So this is ongoing for me. I can't wait though, as I watch the game and the guys start to pop up that I like, I'm not familiar with, or even if it's the name

I've heard for the first time, like getting really immersed in their game. So moving forward though, I'm gonna have some, I'm sure I'll have some hot takes for you guys. One thing that I'm always frustrated by is professionals coming to Major League Baseball from foreign leagues and getting the rookie eligibility. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is not a rookie. Zhengho Li is not a rookie, but they're a rookie of the year award eligible.

And I just find that to be a little bit annoying, whereas guys like Jackson Churio, Jackson Merrill, they're rookies in the truest sense. They are making a much bigger leap and if they have immediate success, that to me is a lot more meaningful and more deserving of an award like this. I think it's going to be Churio as well. I mean, they gave him the big extension during the winter, pretty big vote of confidence that he's a big part of their plan. If the Brewers are going to keep together and avoid a down cycle, he's a big part of

the reason why. There's just so many ways he can contribute. It's kind of like what Eno was saying about Parker Meadows where that power and speed combination tends to pop when you're looking at these awards at the end of the year. Jackson Chorio has that. If the power is a little slow to come, 30 to 40 stolen bases might be there right away. Playing good defense in the outfield could be there right away. There were some issues this spring, so that could be something that is a little bit of

a problem for him. But their confidence in him and that organization is off the charts high, and I think that's going to be rewarded. So it's a homer pick for me, but I do like Jackson Churio to come away as the NL Rookie of the Year. The only thing I would add, because I had Churio as well, but I'm going to put Jung Hoon Lee out there because I think that team has well, but I'm going to put Jung-Hoo Lee out there because I think that team has improved. The Giants team has improved. I think, you know, there is some

pressure on them, but it's not the same as it would have been if it was before Chapman and Snow got added and he was like the only guy they added. So, you know, he's got other stars that got added to this team. I love just the contact rate, you know? And so I think voters, as much as we try not to just make it about batting average, and we've moved on past batting average in a lot of places in terms of our voting, I think batting average is a gaudy sort of easy way to sort of crib it out and be like, yeah, well, you hit 300. He hit 300 and played center field all year for the Giants and they made a wild card. You know, yeah, well, you hit 300. He hit 300 and played center field all year for the Giants and they made a wild card.

You know, that's the sentence that you write. Well, that's what you say on the radio when someone asks you why you voted for Jungkook Lee as the Rookie of the Year, you know? So that's my little mini narrative for Jungkook Lee. You taking Lee or you taking Churio? You're waffling a little. I just wanted to give some love to Lee.

I've taken Churio because I think he'll steal like 25, 30 bags, hit 15 homers and play center field every day. It's going to be hard. I don't think Lee will hit 15 homers. I don't think Lee will steal 30 bags. Maybe he'll have a better batting average than Churio. There is actually room for a dark, dark horse that we have not mentioned because what I'd say is You know hasseong kim came over and struggled at first

so even if we think Lee is good long term it may not be easy right away, right and Yamamoto we saw like he has he has that he doesn't have the like Kyle Freeland number that he has to chip away at but He has a big number that he has to chip away at you know so he may not have the like season where he has Like a a 230 ERA even just because of he started out the way he does and it may just it may just be some bumps in The road and Churio is like what is he like 19? Seriously 20 just turn first player in the big leagues born in 2004 There could just be like an older rookie that I'm just not thinking of that just like, you know pops in there And it's like hey, I'm ready to go and those guys are all just trying to figure it out

Hey, can I present DL Hall as someone who still has rookie eligibility as a potential Dark Horse if he sticks in that rotation All year. It's another how do the Brewers weather the storm? That's part of the story I would say Mason Wynn is kind of interesting too because he plays an important position. Or does Victor Scott like stay in center all year? You like Victor Scott a lot. Steals 40 bags, hits five homers, hit 300. Like that would be an easy way to win it. That's like a very close to the Jungkook Lee thing. And he doesn't maybe have the same amount

of adjustment to make. You know, like Lee has to adjust to a country and a culture as well. Yeah, I think people overlook that a lot of times for the players that do come over from foreign leagues. Let's get to Cy Young picks. Let's start with Trevor and let's start in the NL this time. Who do you like to win the NL Cy Young, Trevor?

All right, here's a dark horse and I don't know how Eno is going to feel about this, but I think first of all, let me preface this by saying I think both Cy Youngs, just because of the nature of how rule changes are happening, it's almost like a war of attrition. Guys who are able to do have big bodies of work and just be really, really consistent are going to be in the conversation more. We're not going to, I don't think we're going to see like a 2-1, like a Pedro Martinez type here. We're going to see, you know, a guy with a 3 or like a 2 two nine with more innings winning, kind of like a Sandy Alcantara. So I got Mitch Keller because I think Mitch Keller is this close.

He's got electric stuff. He's eating more and more innings every year. He's been pretty durable. There were some flashes last year of some dominant outings that were like Kluber-esque where I was like, if he just does this 15, like instead of just doing it for three outings, having two kind of, and then doing three more, if he just had like seven great ones, and then one just okay one, that's a huge difference

with not that much of a difference of way he's pitching. So I think that he's a dark horse. I think he's gonna throw 200 innings, and just that team's gonna keep getting better, and he's gonna keep getting better with him. I just think it's a perfect time for it to happen, and he's a guy with stuff that people haven't thought about enough,

and I thought that was interesting too. I'm going more chalk with Spencer Streiter, and one of my reasonings is that I see the Siong a little bit like the Oscars, where you have to be a top five Sion guy to then win the side young like it's it's it's rare to have a guy just come out of nowhere usually a guy that wins a side young has gotten side on boats before that's the kind of. Oscar thing you get nominated you get nominated you win for a role that wasn't as good as the one you got nominated for before. But you had to kind of you had to establish yourself. You had to put the quality together with the quantity. You know, that's that's something that Strider hasn't quite done yet.

He's he's had a year where he had the quality his first year, but he didn't have the quantity. The next year he had the quantity, but not necessarily the quality. I see him just sort of putting the two together. I like, you know, the curve ball. I think, you know, even the change is OK. And like, I think he's going to throw a little bit more of those in two together. I like, you know, the curveball. I think, you know, even the change is okay. And like, I think he's going to throw a little bit more of those in an idea that like, you know, I'm going to avoid some of these homers, you know, that he's

more of a complete picture. He's going to be more exactly. So, yeah, I know it's chalky, but you know, there's nothing wrong. I think Cy is a little bit chalky. Like think of who won it last year. A lot of them were like, oh yeah, Garry Cole won the Sion. Surprise. Big surprise. Yeah. He's only been top three, five straight years.

You know, like, yeah. Yeah, exactly. It was gonna happen eventually. That's my point, yeah. I figured if you're going to beat the chalk in the NL, you have to build a monster that is as good, potentially, as Spencer Strider, but one that just needs the volume.

And I feel like that describes Tyler Glass now. And I've been pounding the table. It's in my head, I was like, he's gonna say Tyler. All winter, I've been saying, look, the durability concerns are real, but they're a little bit overblown. We do have some closer to full season workloads. We start to include seasons where he was up and down,

or back when he was in the minors all year. I think he can get there. I think if you get 30 starts from Tyler Glass now, he's going to be just as good as Spencer Strider. And I think being on a great team certainly helps because we know in the minds and eyes of the voters that you need to have a gaudy win total. And being a Dodger kind of checks that box. But it's just the stuff is off the charts.

Good with Glass now. The per inning numbers are excellent. I think it all comes together for him. And one of the questions I saw floating around Twitter, I think it was our friend Rob Silver was saying, would we feel this way collectively about Glassnow, the Glassnow optimists, if some other team had been the team to acquire him? Are we giving him the benefit of the doubt because it was the Dodgers? For me, no. Stuff is stuff. It plays everywhere. And it's the track record in the past that I still believe in as far as him

getting and staying healthy. That's what it is, not some Dodger magic thing because the Dodgers don't seem to have any added ability to keep guys healthy beyond any other organization anyway, right? It's unrelated for me. So just pure faith in Glassnow being excellent. And people are asking in the chat, the live hive if the tommy john honeymoon period is real.

I don't know. There's been there's been some pushback on that one if it exists or not. But there is generally like, I think there's more like a moment where you might have a revision. So like there's you know, you have the time john you come out there and there's like that sort of shaky couple of months where you know it could go either way and then if you do if you are healthy you got a new ligament you're good for I think I think there is a honeymoon I don't know I'm speaking from a little bit from the research and what's out there but also I don't know just guessing a little bit it seems more like an unknown. You had Tommy John. Like, how did you, did you feel coming out of it? Like, you know, once you got past the sort of, oh, I've got a new ligament in there, like you felt good again? Yeah, honestly, even the new ligament thing

never really, like, I don't think I was conscious of it really at all. That was the only thing I was worried going in. I was like, I'm gonna, it's gonna bother me. Because I had teammates that just like turned in the robots and they came back, like, they just couldn't get over it. And it just wasn't an issue. The thing was just like normal,

like it's been so long since you felt normal that you don't really know what that is anymore. That's the scary part. You're like, what is normal for me now? And so believing that you can continue to get back to even a metrically or whatever where you were is hard until you do it. But then once you do it, that's when you're feeling

really good about yourself, because now you feel like you have this timer that's been reset before you have elbow surgery. Yeah, that's what I was saying, there's gotta be some of that. Yeah, so then you just kinda let it go. As soon as you buy in though, and you start to feel good, that's probably the best feeling in the world,

when you're like, oh, I remember, 18, there was was moments I was like, I feel like I have good command, but my below, my stuff isn't the best it's ever been. But my command was good because that's what I was focused on. I came back in 19 and put it, then both things were there. And I remember, I remember that just being like, it's, let's go. I like the year after. The year you come back, that's a little bit like the first two years back, like command, usually it's the other way around.

Command is behind. I think that's the other way around command is behind I think that was the best way to do it I'm getting like a month at the end of a season getting an offseason and then going that's it that's when you feel the that's When you feel the most over it's someone who came and played a little bit and showed us that Everything's fine and then got the full offseason. I have a I have a sort of antique glass now Just one I want to throw out there is Aranola, where, you know, I'm not saying that he doesn't have stuff. What I'm saying is, here's a guy that will put up the bulk.

And what we've seen is he can be really good. I don't know if he's getting lucky on homers. In the years when he has lower home run rates, he can be really good. So if he just figures something out that works for a year and lowers the home run rates, he's the totally the type of guy that could win it. It's not a guy that I'm picking, it's just I want to throw him out there as kind of the anti-glass now. I think it's funny that you brought him up only because you expressed a lot of concerns about those those downside seasons when

we were having more of like a fantasy conversation about expectations for Nola, right? Like the the finishes end up being a lot lower than you'd expect for someone that has the ceiling that he has so yeah it's fair I mean all the situation the situation is just right for him to do it again in Philadelphia let's go to the AL side who do you like for the AL Cy Young this year you know? I got George Kirby I think you know he's putting the it's the same sort of thing with it's not quite the same as Cole where he year, you know? I got George Kirby. I think he's putting the, it's the same sort of thing with, it's not quite the same as Cole where he's like,

been there and been there and now he's gonna do it. But it's similar in that, and it's similar in my Strider pick, which is just, here's a guy who's been here, has the bulk and is now like adding a knuckleball. And he's playing around with that last piece. And that last piece I think is often what takes you into Siam territory. So it could be the splitter. I doubt it's the knuckleball. I doubt we're going to see a ton of those.

But the splitter could really kind of pull the whole room together in a way. And then on top of that, when you have a guy who has this new pitch, there is still the novelty value in the first year. Like, you know, year two or year three of throwing that curveball for Strider, you know, people will, okay, we've game planned for this. We know what it looks like. We're more ready for it. Whereas, uh, year two or three, you know, same thing for the splitter of the Kirby. But in year one, the first year you break it out and you already have these other pieces, his great command, his, his decent fastball, his awesome slider, like, you know it out and you already have these other pieces. His great command, his

decent fastball, his awesome slider. You have those things in your pocket. You add a wrinkle that people have never seen. What you're happening with the Cy Young, I think, is you have all these pitchers. You have 10 to 15 pitchers every year that are good. And then something happens that just brings them that one, that above. And so I think you have your Cy Young contenders every year. Kirby's a Cy Young contender every year. But I like this idea of like, oh, I haven't seen the splitter. What the hell is this? The extra wrinkle. Yeah, you talked about that earlier with Kerbin Burns, you know,

adding a pitch this first start. And I like Burns for similar reasons in the sense of always chalky like Strider, although it's more flattened out when you look at odds for A.L. Cy Young. There's like seven or eight candidates that are kind of all co-favorites, if that's even possible. Part of it's being in a more picture friendly environment. Part of it's switching leagues and seeing a lot of guys who have not seen a lot of him. I think all of those things paired with Corbin Burns not really losing any stuff last year, even though it wasn't quite the elite of the elite season people were hoping for. I think he wins this Cy Young and rides off into free agency on a really high note.

For me, it's a it's George Kirby's teammate. I think Louis Castillo is going to have the best chance just because he's the guy who's been in the now he's in the conversation top seven or whatever every year. And like I said, he's just so wildly concerned. It's always like a 305 and 200 innings, strike out per inning. You know, he's a guy who, if he can make that adjustment to the throwing too many fast balls, because I think he does. I think he gets very fast ball heavy

and then gets himself into a situation where he gives up like the three-win homer. That's the issue, because he's a sinker ball guys for the most part, got ground balls, that change-ups still disgusting, but he gets one-dimensional times because he feels very confident and he throws in that park. So if he just, again, if he commits to maybe throwing the slider a little bit more, it's not a great slider, but it is different.

And if he gets a little bit better at that and avoids those, a couple of those big outings, because he had a couple of them towards the end of the year last year, if he avoids those, he'll have that three or that two-nine-five'll lead the league or he'll be up there top three in innings and I'm high, I'm obviously high on the Mariners for how they're going to have it this year and he's going to be a big part of their success. So if they have a very good year and he does what he generally would have done just slightly better, I think he has the best chance to win it. It's a rotation that has at least three present day candidates to win that award, I think. I think you could put both Gilbert, Kirby,

and Castillo all into that mix. Let's go to MVP picks. We'll start on the AL side with this one, and we'll throw it to Trevor first. Sorry, guys. Going to go with another mariner. I want Julio. I got Julio.

I think it's Julio's time. Again, I think they're gonna be high on him. I think they added some quality bats that are different than they've had in the past that aren't all Homer or nothing or fly ball or nothing type guys. A little bit harder to face or plan for guys in the lineup that are gonna get him

or pitches to hit and it's not gonna be all on him. Even though when it was all on him for a long time last year They still won and it was him doing it So he has that ability just to take over a game which is rare in baseball But he won't have to and again I think situationally that is everyone stays healthy or at least a lot of the weapons do to keep kind of protect him in that Lineup that feels feels pretty good for me And also I would be able to watch it in real time,

which there I got that bias too. There's a little bit of wishful thinking going on on my side. I don't know if you guys can tell. Yeah. I'm doing my bold one. I'm sticking with it. Instead of my normal idea for pics is to just make a ton of them

and make different ones on the podcast, make different ones in writing, and that can point to something at a ton of them and make different ones on the podcast, make different ones in writing, and that can point to something at the end of the year. But what I'm gonna do this year is stick with my Vladimir Guerrero Jr. pick that was for my bold predictions. One thing I really like- The opposite of the show cover curse?

Yes, exactly. He's gonna win MVP after he gets on? That's pretty great. Show cover curse, yeah. What I really liked though, from his opening day game was just like I said, laying off of, it was actually what we talked about yesterday and we had some barrels is that, you know,

if he can just lay off of the low pitches, which he can make contact with, but will turn into ground balls and maybe singles, but maybe not much. If he can lay off those, he can have more of a nitro power thing. And that's what he did yesterday. If you look, he didn't swing at anything in the lower third of the zone,

even inside the zone. And yes, that's called strikes and maybe some more strike outs, but he got one, got a hold of it, uh, and, and really stuck with his plan. So I liked that. I like that you're sticking with that as a regular prediction on top of it being a bold prediction. It means you have a lot of conviction in it. It's really good. I'm a Trevor. I've got Julio Rodriguez winning the AL MVP.

I mean, he already crushes the ball, hits the ball hard. He steals bases, does everything you could possibly want. And I think that how he gets there, the next phase adjustment is slightly improved play discipline. You put that on top of what he already brings to the table and you get something closer to what Acuna did last year. In the end, I think he is capable of reaching a ceiling like that so I'm with you on the supporting cast you know I think striking out less

as a team creates more opportunities for Julio to be an even better accumulator he didn't even need that. Also batting with people on base is easier. All good things. If the rest of the lineup is on base more often then that will help him. Getting a lot of questions from the live hive. Am I dipping out to watch the Brewers game? Do I have it on another screen or spoilers allowed? I don't have it on another screen I'm always worried about bandwidth during a live stream spoilers are allowed and and don't don't mess with me Like you can be honest about what's happening. You don't have to tell me that Jackson. Sure. Oh, yeah. Look at that score. Yeah I'll catch up on it once we're done here

in just a little while. Let's run through our division winners. We'll start on the AL side. We're gonna hit these pretty quick. I'm going J's in the East, twins in the Central, and Mariners in the West. If you believe who is gonna be the MVP, you have to believe in the Mariners.

So, kind of funky as far as who's winning the division, but not necessarily indicative of who's going to have success in the postseason based on those predictions. That's actually funny because I have the Orioles, twins, and Astros, but I have the Jays in the World Series. Oh, that's funny because I actually have the Orioles going to the World Series

as a wild card from the AL side. So, I mean, divisions are goofy like that. I mean, we've seen a lot of division winners not make it out of the first round. Especially recently, last couple years. Yeah, it's hard to take division winners, but I did that. So I have the Orioles win the AL or the East. I have the Astros win the ale I have or the east I have

The Astros win the West barely Kind of come down on the wire again because that's just the way the Mariners hit a roll and they're gonna continue rolling that way And then I have the Tigers in the central Got some boldness fine. I think the young like you said parklmanos. I think he continues to get better The interesting things like Riley Green, like their young group of guys, I just having faced them last year, they have Torkelson with real big boy pop in the middle.

He's a true Christian Walker type 30 plus homer guy. He really is, he just plays in a massive park. So if he hits 30, he's doing it. Like, and he does it with, he's hitting guys in. So they have these pieces, I think they're in a good position. And I think as they get better, I think Javi, I'm not gonna say Javi Baez is gonna become Javi Baez of old.

And knowing him personally, he rides that wave a little bit. Like he buys in. And when he buys in and he's comfortable and has fun, he plays better. And I think we see a better version, not maybe the best player on the team, but a better version contributor, if you will, to a team that's competing a little bit more.

The pitching there has really revamped itself. I mean, I think Federer is a good pitching coach. He's turning out to be. And you see Casey Meis now has a four seam. Matt Manning has really changed his pitch shapes, and he's their sixth guy. He's got some depth too. Yeah, good bullpen too. Yeah, they went and got some veterans in Maeda and Flaherty. Uh, and that's, I like that because what it does is it takes the pressure off the young kids, but that doesn't also block the young kids. Like if Flaherty's not doing great, he's on a one year deal. You move into bullpen, you call up Manning.

Like it's, it's that easy. So I like when teams, when teams are kind of making that, that, that move to being contenders from being rebuilders, they do like what the pirates did when they move Luis Ortiz and Roynza Contreras to the bullpen. That's a big signal. That means we're not gonna sit here and like wait for these guys to be good as starters.

Like now we're trying to win games, they're in the bullpen, you know? And I see, I get that same sort of energy from the Tigers. Yeah, I like the pitching improvements across the board. Jason Foley looked great closing out that game yesterday. Hundreds. Yeah, adding a few ticks. Maybe a little bit of opening day adrenaline,

but when we just had to throw 98, he didn't throw 101, but he can. Yeah, being able to get up there, I think that's just one more gear that some people didn't think that Jason Foley had. So if you're wondering who the Tigers closer is, well, it sure looked like it was Jason Foley coming out of the opener yesterday.

Let's shift the focus over to the NL for division winners. By the way, O's, Yankees, Astros, all making the playoffs as wild cards for me. So still plenty of old dangerous teams. And then of course the O's still being an ascendant team. NL East winner for me, Braves go and chalk. They're projected to be the best. And it's hard to go against the Dodgers and Braves.

I mean, are any of us doing it? I'm not how like what's your what's your process if you're doing that? Like, I just don't know. I did. The gap. Yeah. The gap's like 10 wins. It's so big in each of those divisions. And then the central is just wide open. I'm sticking Homer side.

I'm staying with the Brewers because I think every other team, this division still has flaws. And oh, I think it's a total pick. I'm what you got absolute crapshoot. Who do I got? I got I got the Reds. Ah, we both got the reds. I like their starting. I like their starting staff.

I think stuff was like Ashcraft, LaDola. These guys are filthy. They have electricity in that. And it's just they're this close to just kind of running off a couple of rotations where they're just unhittable the whole way through. And everyone's like, and then they play in that park. They don't have to score that many runs.

They don't. They're going to hit two dinky homers and they win. Like, look who's leading the league in homers right now. It's Nick Martini, guys. Nick Martini, it's a great opening day, kind of footnote. I mean, a two homer game, he's like 33 years old. He's barely had extended run as a regular in the big leagues. And he's actually productive with the opportunities

he's had. He's one of those guys you look at and say, wait. He's like an OBP guy. Why not play him a little bit more? Now, because of all the injuries, he's actually getting an opportunity for the Reds. That plus Tyler O'Neill homering

for the fifth consecutive opening day. Those were two other random opening day things that happened that I thought, hey, that's pretty interesting. So we're all different. So we have Brewers, well, no, not all different. You have the Pirates making the playoffs though. That was part of your bold prediction from yesterday

that I thought was pretty fascinating. Even though I've kept Vlad on my bold, this is a more sober prediction. I think the Reds are a little bit ahead They just have their position core is probably ahead even with some of the dings they've taken Although there's a lot of similarities, you know, they both have like this six foot six shortstop that throws 99 And hits 120 and has a has a couple flaws. They both have you know know, Steer and Hayes have some similarities. They're not the exact same guys,

but they're, you know, like strong secondary guys and, you know, Sawinskis out there. And so, you know, I could make the case for either. I just took, here's, I'm spamming a little bit. I'll go with the Reds on this one. I had the Phillies, the Reds, and the Padres as the wild cards. I'm increasingly looking at this Padres team

and feeling optimistic, even though it wasn't the off season many people were hoping for. They didn't backtrack nearly as much as everyone expected them to, especially with that late addition of Dylan Cease. The Cease trade I think made a big difference. And now they have better pitching depth

than they've ever had before, I think with Brito and Vasquez and Snelling's. And then on top of that, you know they're worse positions in the outfield or in the outfield they've got Jacob Marcy and You know, they've got Jackson Merrill out there now So they've got some youth that they can throw at the problem in their problem areas Which is is kind of one of their better constructions in the past They've had teams that were very top-heavy that had no

Depth and no like ready that had no depth and no ready prospects or no pitching that was ready. This is the year where it's kind of like, okay, we've got our stars, but also our depth is in the right places. We have four ready arms in case somebody goes down. We have two outfielders that can come in. Grant Pauley and Jacob Marcy are ready to go if Azokar and Profar are just, you know, it's not gonna be that good this year.

Yeah, we all have the Braves and LA too, right? As the other. Yeah, yeah. That was a consensus just locked in. I was gonna say, I don't think any of us could- Dodgers, guys, we have Dodgers. Yeah. Who do you find? So who wins it all?

What's the World Series matchup and who actually wins it? I've got Blue Jays Dodgers. Blue Jays Dodgers. The Otani finalists, interesting. I have Braves Orioles, Orioles taking it. Same matchup I've got. Got Braves Orioles, Orioles taking it. We are of the same mind.

I think the Orioles experience last year will pay off. I think you were talking about this earlier in the show, like there's this sort of like tightness when you haven't been to the postseason before. Break that barrier. Once you break that barrier, I think you're a lot this earlier in the show like there's a sort of like tightness when you haven't been to the post Season before break that barrier once you break that barrier I think you're a lot more dangerous once you go back and this is a team that's gonna be playing in the postseason I think for a long time with the core that they have in place But I'm amazed that two of us land on the same matchup. That's pretty cool. Philly's gonna do the same thing, too

They're hungry hungry hungry. They've been too close One thing I want to bet on in these times I think the one thing that you don't want to like over learn from what just happened, but the Rangers doing what they did showed us that like we can overvalue all the nitpicking we do with a rotation or a bullpen or whatever. Sometimes you should just focus on like, God, that team's gonna score all the runs. And that's why I find it hard to go against the Dodgers because I've watched them in Korea. I watched them yesterday. I'm picking the Dodgers to win at all because like that team like just imagine facing them. Miles Michael is like, hey, we're the lunch pail guys and you know, watch would see what happens when the lunch pail guys goes up

against the checkbook team. I'm sorry, I watched and I was like, Jesus. Wait, he said that? That's a quote. I love that. I love that lunch pale guys. It's just like, you know, what's going to happen? Oh, he said like Midwestern, you know, I got you. Whatever, you know, but the construction workers in their Wall Street. There's no, there's no breaks. Teasca Hernandez is the break. And yes, maybe you can get Teasca to chase. He's a kind of a wild guy at the plate. But if Teasca Hernandez is the break and yes maybe you can get Teasca to chase he's a kind of a wild guy at the plate but if Teasca Hernandez is your break like Teasca Hernandez has a lot of I think similarities to Adolis Garcia Adolis Garcia was like a key guy and like imagine going and and Teasca is in one of his like

hits everything for homers, you know streaks that he gets on so now you're in the postseason and you're like, oh god Oh Mookie Oh Freddie, like you're just trying to oh, maybe I'll just rock some guys and oh I gave up single Oh, oh god is to Oscar Grand slam like I just think they're gonna score they're gonna score more runs than anybody in baseball this year Certainly looks that way based on the way they are built right now, yeah, no breaks whatsoever as you try to navigate that Dodgers lineup. At some point, we will be breaking down how Trevor and Eno would want to pitch to various hitters,

trying to figure out the entire Dodgers lineup might be more than one episode. We might have to push change-ups, we got pretty deep. Yeah, we could save the change-up deep dive for next week. We'll save the change-ups. I think that makes sense. They deserve a lot of time because we like them I mean at least I like them quite a bit

We'll also have like the first like the first week of the season It's kind of hard to talk about things sometimes because it's there's not like that much actionable. It's just hey I could make five games really meaningful as a gift that I have sir That's the fan that's a gift that I have, sir. That's the fan. That's a gift of fandom right there. But from an analysis standpoint, I'd be like, yes, that guy's going to hit 800. And yes, Nick Martini is going to have 65 home runs. He's going to end the year with a new record. Yeah.

Saul wants to know, do we have any spicy takes? I think it's likely the Rangers missed the playoffs. Yeah, I didn't have the Rangers in. I think it's more about the runway of getting their best pitching back. I don't think they're bad. I think they're gonna be a team that's close, but I just think the timing's not gonna quite work out.

With Scherzer's absence, with de Grahm's absence, I think those two in particular, that's a huge difference. And I don't know if they have the depth in that rotation to actually hold together, especially if they lose more from the current group. I think that's when things could really become problematic for them in these first couple of months. They were tech, they technically barely made it last year,

like barely. Look how good Simeon and how good Seager were and how good he of all he was, like how these guys played out of their mind and they barely made the playoffs. They were playing to make it like the last few days of the season. I mean, they were, they lost the division and they had to like still win were playing to make it like the last few days of the season. I mean, they were they lost the division.

They had to like still win games to like make it in. I could see the Diamondbacks missing it. I just see Eduardo Rodriguez hurt. Paul Seawald hurt, you know, a little bit of a hangover from from last year. They weren't they I don't think they were the second best team in baseball last year, you know, so there's there's that. And then they're going to be in a division with teams that are like a juggernaut in the Dodgers and then maybe a Giants and Padres team that are gonna be surprising, you know if there's any sort of surprising level for the Giants and Padres that makes it really difficult for the Diamondbacks because you're not gonna

You mean you it's like impossible like you can't I don't think you math works where you're like all Three wild cards come out of the West It's very difficult for it to work that way But a lot of times people make that prediction about the AL East the AL East is so tough and we're gonna get three out Of the Jays Rays Yankees or whatever combination teams you like any given year, right? It seems like that's always been the argument, but you still play those guys the most so I think the math doesn't work Like you're just you're you're just still playing them. Is it spicy? They have to absolutely beat up on the rest of the league. They have to just they have to win like all of their outer out of division games. Which especially now because

there's so much spread in this. And I can see that happening the AL East more than I can see that the Dbacks do that. Like do you see the Dbacks just running house on like the rest of the league? No, not necessarily. But could I see like the second or third best team in the AL East just like, you know, destroying everybody else and playing 500 in the AL East and making it, yeah. I mean, I've got the Padres in and the Diamondbacks out, I guess that's a spicy tick. I think the Padres are better than the Diamondbacks

right now, I don't think that's unreasonable. Credit to the Diamondbacks for at least doing right though, going out, kind of fortifying the weakness, getting Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez, I realize E-Rod is hurt right though, going out, kind of fortifying the weakness, getting Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez, I realize Erod is hurt right now, but that will serve them well and give them a better chance of getting back to the postseason than if they had avoided signing both of those guys.

I didn't see a path for them to do it without adding to that rotation. It will be kind of spicy if both World Series teams don't make the playoffs next year. I know, I was just thinking, I was like, if I had the Jason just say that the Jason Stark That signal turned on we'd have that information at our disposal right now. I'm sure it's Wonder how long ago it's been

Yeah, how long has it been since the two World Series teams both missed the postseason? Maybe someone in the live hive can dig that up probably having a lot more with the smaller postseason's honestly All it was just a Bennett more with the smaller post seasons, honestly. Almost suddenly. With just the Bennets or the Just The Division winners went. Yeah. Yeah. That's probably what. Probably happened a lot back in the day. Philip wants to go negative instead of predicting the best teams.

Who will be the worst 2024 teams? I mean, the Rockies really did a good job going off the high dive on opening day. Oh, do you think the young Nationals outfielders pull them off the basement? I think they could. I at least see reasons for optimism with all the other basement teams that I really just don't see with the Rockies. I was looking at the projected war leaderboards. I think their total projected war was marginally better.

It seemed like than just the remaining free agents on March 29th. I mean, I'm exaggerating a little, but they were brutal, like looking at the way this team's projected by a predicted war. It's Rockies Nationals, White Sox A's. I think that's right with Colorado at the bottom. So we need a dark horse here, though, like we can't just be chalky on the bottom, too. Right. So who's the other who is the team that you think falls in this? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Honestly, they're not a dark horse for me.

But the angels are, are, are projected right now to be like the 10th worst. And I could see them being the worst, like just everything goes wrong. You know, Pablo never gets it going. And the Rendon gets hurt again. Trout gets hurt again, you know, and then there's just nothing left. And they're, and they're playing an outfield of Adele and Moniac and they're striking out 35% of the time and it's just, you know, it starts getting bad. Yeah. Injuries would be very unkind to this position player group. It's such a typical Angels opening day, right? Trout, Homer's in the first inning.

Oh, hey, Trout's still Trout. Great. You lose 11 to three. Yeah, that's very, very ace. It's going to be a lot of that. Oh my goodness. It's going to be a lot of trout, ohoppy, netto, ward, putting up good numbers and having it just not matter. Do you think Reid Detmers gets a lot better? Do you think Griffin Canning stays healthy?

It's hard to talk yourself into their rotation. Even if you like those two guys, what do they get from Silceth and Sandoval and Tyler Anderson? There's just, there's so little in terms of impact talent on the pitching side for them right now. It's a huge uphill battle for them in that division with three very good teams clearly ahead of them. I agree with that take a big time. And I, their pitching is just, I don't understand.

They don't sign any pitchers. They only signed, they gave one guy 11 million a year for three years and then he's not even healthy and he's like not the closer. I don't know what that was. I don't know why they did that. Good for him, but head scratcher because that's like not something that was a big need. They needed so much more than that. They could have gotten starting pitching for cheaper than that.

Frankly, anybody. I don't know what's going on. Is there a Cardinals team, though, a team that's supposed to be in the mix for division leader that wins, that loses 90 games? They might be the team that jumps off the page a little bit because they're coming off of a down year. They've got a couple of injuries already with Newt Bar and Edmund, not their best players, plus Sonny Gray. But the Cardinals just did it last year.

Oh, yeah, like the Cardinals of last year. You think a different team or do you think? I think there's a chance the Cardinals just did it last year. No, yeah, like the Cardinals of last year. You think a different team or do you think, I think there's a chance the Cardinals stay in the cycle for another year. Oh no. It's the pitching. It's the same thing we're just saying about the Angels. I don't know if they're gonna stay healthy.

They could lose their entire rotation quick. Like it could happen fast. That's a lot of old guys. My, you called, you said they're in the World Series and I think the Blue Jays might be, it's potential that they could be very disappointing, and they're just a couple, again, a couple injuries away. It's like the Gossman shoulder thing comes back up.

Gossman, and then they lose Vladdy and Bichette for a couple months together, and then you're like, how do we score any runs? Like, how do we do this? You can't just pray that David Schneider just does exactly what he did for a month last year, uh, go three for four every day. Like, it's just not going to happen. So there are a couple injuries away from being in real trouble. I don't think they will, but, um, they're probably the most, I think, exposed.

I wonder about the Cubs a little bit. You know, steel goes down. Like, what if it's, it takes longer than you think? I like Iman Agha, but what if he gives up two homers per nine? Kyle Hendricks is really up and down. Jameson Towns hurt right now. And I think this, we're zeroing in on something that pitching health is a huge source of chaos in the game and really one of the big ways that you can either be way worse than you expected or way better, it seems like. Cause I just told the story of the Cubs falling apart

like the Cardinals and I just zeroed in right in on the rotation. Trevor's doing the same when he was talking about other teams. So it's like, that's, I think where you would look like, you would look at, you know, these young, like a team with young pitching, you might feel a little bit better about.

But the Cubs for a team that's been rebuilding for so long, their rotation is surprisingly old. Yeah, I think the Kate Horton situation that we described a little bit earlier, that's a potential shift for them, having a guy that looks more like an actual ace maybe in that rotation by midseason. And hey, he's cruising in the upper levels of the minor leagues, the need might even be sooner than that. That would be something to be excited about.

Oh, I was thinking about the Rays. As an under performer, yeah. Yeah, I mean, just the way that we're talking about this, like, you know, they bake in a lot of, you know, okay, these people are gonna be hurt. We're just gonna have a ton of them. But it seems like even for how much they baked in that, they're really gonna push it this year.

You know what I mean? Like Springs, Rasmussen, Taj Bradley, all hurt. Baaz coming back. Like what happens, Sivali has not been a guy who stayed healthy a lot. So what if happens if he gets hurt? Eflin has had knee injuries in the past. Like they don't even, I don't think that they have another,

like you said, you know, for the Cubs, at least maybe Horton and Brown come up. And like that's how they paper it over. I think that the Rays are really pushing it to the point where like they may not have a cupboard. You know, it may look really bad for a while. I think with Junior Kim and Arrow as an impact back coming up, they got some help there.

With Boz probably back in the rotation at some point in May, they get a big lift there. A lot's going to hinge on Taj Bradley getting healthy and taking a step forward. But you're right, they're vulnerable right now. Not as deep as some of the Raze teams we've seen in recent years. And I don't think any of us had them in as a wild card. So I think collectively we are a little bit down on the Raze right now. We are going to go. Thanks to everybody in the live high for showing up one o'clock Eastern every Friday. We have this on our YouTube channel. If you don't have a subscription to the athletic, get one at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels. You can find us on Twitter.

I am at Derek from Riper. Trevor is at I am Trevor May. You know, is at you know, Sarah's the pod is at rates and barrels. Join our discord. We'll have the link for that in the show description. If you had a question for a future episode, send them our way through there or through email ratesandbarrelsatgmail.com. If you enjoyed the show, be sure to like this video on YouTube, it's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

We're back with you on Monday. Dude, just a pair of absolute hams. Have you seen these quads?