Rates & Barrels - Playing the Long Game with Stars, The Aging Curve & Delayed Breakouts

Episode Date: May 22, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss aging stars whose long-term value might be on the cusp of falling, as well as a few players to target despite an overall body of work that leaves something to be desired.  Rundown 10:07 Freddie Freeman Is the Power & Speed Drop a Sign of Things to Come? 18:02 Marcus Semien & Nearly Impossible Durability 23:12 Jose Altuve & Extreme Pull Tendencies Over Time 28:59 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Should We Still Chase A 2021 Ceiling? 34:58 Adolis García: Fearing the Fast Peak From Late Bloomers with Aggressive Approaches 36:37 Oneil Cruz: Will He Improve Enough Against Lefties in the Long Run? 43:02 Zach Neto: Sacrificing Ceiling for a Safer Floor? 46:01 Jordan Walker: No Homers at Triple-A This Season?! 53:58 Alex Kirilloff: A Delayed Breakout Coming, or WYSIWYG? 1:02:14 Project Prospect: The Prospects to Target Via Trade As Top 100 Lists Have In-Season Updates Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us this Thursday 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episode! https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to ratesates and Barrels. It is Wednesday, May 22nd. Derek VanRiper, you know, Sarah's here with you moving things up this week. We have our live stream with Trevor May coming out on Thursday this week, one o'clock Eastern on our YouTube page. So trying to get some time in during the long weekend where we can all rest and relax. Hope all of you out there get a chance to do the same if you're able to do so Be sure to smash the like button on this video if you're watching us on YouTube subscribe to our YouTube channel if you haven't done So already and join the discord the link is in the show

Description on this episode though. We are focusing on players in their long-term values So we're looking for possible older players that we might be willing to trade away if we're trying to rebuild and younger players that aren't necessarily playing at a high level right now who might still have brighter days ahead. So a lot of different ways that this conversation is likely to go. We got some names from the discord that we'll focus on as well as a few of our own choices for players that we are concerned about and optimistic about at each end of the aging curve.

So with that, we begin. Who are some of the best players that you are worried about beyond this season? You know, we're talking about early rounders, guys who have multi-year track records of, if not elite, very good production players we have not had to worry about previously because we had a pretty good sense of what they were going to do and they have delivered time and time again. And I think the inspiration for the question

in the beginning of the episode is Paul Goldschmidt. What's happening to Paul Goldschmidt right now and wondering if maybe we could have seen it coming? I talked about him during draft season as good oatmeal, a player that took a small step back last year that even if he repeated what he did in 2023, I thought he was a good value where he's going. But now as the calendar moves through the final weeks of May, the level of concern is elevated. So my goal as a player is to avoid having the next Paul Goldschmidt. And for keeper in dynasty leagues,

that process sort of begins now if you're not gonna win this year. Yeah, I mean, most of the guys that we took in the very first few rounds weren't that old. And so I'm not, there isn't somebody that I can say well he's struggling a little bit and he's of a certain age and I'm really worried about him I mean I'm worried about Justin Turner but you know he's 39 and doesn't have great bat speed and you know we knew at some point he wouldn't

be able to play in the league right it? It's not like he'd just keep playing in the league forever. And I'm worried about Paul Goldschmidt, although I will say, you know, the raw power there with 110 miles per hour exit velocity, like he can still be a usable hitter if he can figure out the K's. It's the K's more than anything. I'm worried about you know Starling Marte I guess you know this is it's okay production and he won't hurt anybody for where he bought him but I don't know if I will play the same game with projections again last next year where I say ooh you

know nobody's buying Starling Marte and And, you know, I should also keep my eye on the fact that now he's thirty six. So, you know, I'm worried about George Springer, you know. Oh, yeah. He's 34 years old and some part of his game is based on a lesson. But it's weird that he has the seven stolen bases. The strikeout rate is fine. You know, I think maybe the person I'm most worried about out of all these guys that I don't really have a caveat or any sort of fence sitting is Nolan Aronato.

I will be surprised of all the names that I've said, I'd be surprised if most surprised by him. I think if he like you sort of took off and looked like the old Nolan on Nolan on an auto again this season, I could still see it from spring or I could still see it from from Goldie. I don't know. Arnado is combination of having a really long swing, not great bat swing and also being a guy who kind of beat all the peripherals for a while. And remember this because this is going to come up again when we talk about guys that we aren't that we aren't obviously we're not worried about, but can we pre worry about them? Could we, could we stay out in front of the worry?

Um, because you know, once these guys are 36 37 38 and 39 once they are Charlie Blackman they've got no value in your league but there there was a point at which you could have traded Charlie Blackman for something there was a point at which you could have traded Starling Marte, Paul Goltzman for something. And so, you know, in just last year, I traded Justin Verlander for George Springer. That seems almost like a wash at this point, but you know, there is there there there are points at which you can have value in a guy and then they kind of go off the

cliff and they no longer have value in keeper leagues. So most of the guys I just mentioned are kind of post have value in keeper leagues. So mostly guys I just mentioned are kind of post value in keeper leagues. Right. And I think what happens in a lot of keeper and dynasty leagues is a lot of the players you mentioned, even if we're saying they're not the same player they used to be, they've gone post peak, they end up becoming undervalued in a lot of leagues. They're easy to acquire because people are looking so far into the future, they're willing to give up some present value and you can end up getting that second wave

of production that's still pretty good. It's just avoiding the dip. It's not being the one holding onto a player a year too long before they fall into that phase. Yeah, I share your worry about George Springer, but I can look into these numbers and see reason to believe. If you can look past the general struggles of the Blue Jays lineup and just something just not being right in their, either their organizational philosophy,

coaching, the ballpark factors, like all of those things could be part of why they have so many underperforming bats, but I can look at Springer, see the low K rate, see that the speed's still there, see that the swing decisions are still good, and say, you know, the hard hit rate's down a little bit, but that doesn't fully explain the drop off. There looks like there's going to be a decent rebound from him the rest of the way, and say, maybe George Springer, someone I'm trading for and redraft right now at the reduced price. The key is in a keeper league,

not keeping a guy like Springer going into next season, right? That's the problem that we're trying to help people avoid. It's a fine line because like, let's say you're, uh, you think you might be okay next year, but this year you're selling. Uh, do you sell Springer this year for almost nothing? Like, I don't know what you could ask for back for Springer, except for maybe, you know, one of these sort of pop up a ball prospects, you know, sort of flavor of the month that doesn't really hasn't showed up on this yet.

If you really think you've kind of you can really uncover a diamond in the rough, then maybe you trade Springer for that guy. But even if you do trade for that guy, you don't get that guy in your Major League roster for three years, probably. So if you think you're going to turn it on for next year, then maybe you don't trade Springer at that point. Then maybe it's, you know, what you're talking about, whereas, you know, there's a value proposition there where it kind of is different for everybody. It's hard to talk about, but, um, yeah, they, they can be undervalued. But what we're trying to do today is stay out of that conversation entirely almost, you know, is who is the guy that you could trade? Like, like, let's just use Springer because we're just talking about him. What if you traded him in 2022,

after the 2022 season, you know, that year, he is 32 years old and he's just come off of a season where he had 267 with 25 homers and 14 steals. You could probably get something pretty good from him that year. Yeah. At the time, the Blue Jays offense and the reputation and the expectations were much higher around it, too. So he would have been a relatively inexpensive way to

basically buy into Vlad Jr. and Beau Bichette because, hey, he's the established veteran. They all going to help each other, accruerue value and he's the easiest one to get. But you're right. You would have got a lot more then. And part of this is the aging curve and how people react to it. Springer's 34 now, he was 32 two years ago. That's closer to the point where you could still get people to buy in.

So a lot of the players we're talking about today are in their early thirties. Some are younger, a couple are older. Everyone's kind of at a different point. And some of the names we're going to bring up, you're going to say, wait, what? Like what, something's wrong with this player? Not necessarily. Right. And we're not people who I don't think you and I like to worry

any more than we already do. We don't even have to manufacture. Yeah. We have enough. Most people out there, like we're very similar. We have life stress that makes us worry about things. So manufacturing excess worry is not something we're interested in. We're doing this in the spirit of...

We don't talk about players like this. The players that are good, the veteran players that are good are probably some of the most under discussed players in the fantasy baseball and baseball podcast universe by far, because everyone just thinks they're going to keep doing it and doing it over and over. That's the expectation. And it doesn't work like that. So I went to the Discord to see who some of our listeners are worried about.

And one of the names that was submitted to us is one that I had on the run down anyway, Freddie Freeman. And I want to start with Freddie Freeman because. In so many ways, you look at Freddie Freeman and say he is going to hit until he retires. He's the kind of player that because of his eye at the plate, his bat to ball ability. But Freddie Freeman will leave baseball before baseball leaves Freddie Freeman. That's the story you want to tell yourself.

And you get this built in cushion of the Dodgers are loaded around him. They can just spend. He's got superstars that are going to be on base for him all the time. So the production can't possibly tail off that much that quickly. You take a look what he's done through 51 games so far this season. Only five homers puts them more on like a mid to high teen sort of pace for the year one stolen base in two attempts after 23 steals and 24 attempts a season ago slash line's not bad 292 average we're used to something above 300 he's done that four consecutive seasons obp still very

good at 402 and the slugging percentage is down at 454. Not a surprise given what we saw with the home run total being down. But you know, you're looking at a guy that has just a ridiculous track record. It'll be 35 in September. Are you at a point right now if you're not playing for next season where you're comfortable trying to move on from Freddie Freeman, hoping that you're timing it right. You do run the risk of giving up a good year or two, maybe more, with some of these players. But maybe it's better to be a year too early

as far as the trade value you get in return. So what are you seeing with Freeman so far? And what would you be doing right now if you had him on a team that wasn't necessarily gonna win this year? Yeah, in the Springer example, if you had sold them in 2020, you would have lost last year, which was a 2020 season, right?

Um, and so you would have definitely have lost something and there is something to be said for that. But, um, what you're also trying to judge is where Freddie Freeman is true talent wise versus where he is in the estimation of the rest of the league and the, your trade partners, which is something we can't answer for you. But I can tell you that Freddie Freeman so far has been the sixth best first baseman in fantasy baseball. Jeez, that's still really good.

And it's a position where if you don't have someone, it's kind of hard to find quality on the waiver wire. Yeah, but then he also starts to be like the reverse warbler where like he's really good in certain categories. But not helping you in homers to the point where you might have Freddie Freeman on a team and yes be good in batting average. But with those missing homers you might find yourself wow I'm actually. You know like five six homers short of being more top of the pack and I'm more middle of the pack like six homers Can be three or four spots in some lot in some standings, you know And so, you know, you have to ask yourself how important those homers are for your team build going forward He I just talked to him about this like his goal is to hit 300

He I have said you could hit more homers if you pull the ball more. And he said, I don't care. And that's been the story, I think, of his of his second Renaissance. You know, like there was the early Freeman that did. There was like a sort of 2016 to 2019 when he hit 38 homers that one year. He did pull the like a sort of 2016 to 2019 where you know he hit 38 homers

that one year he did pull the ball a bit more then he settled back into where he kind of entered the league which is spray the ball make contact get on base hit 300 400 OVP and I guess that can continue for a while but I do think that we are gonna settle back into sort of 15 to 20 Homer hitting Freddie Freeman pretty soon. And then if there is a one year where he has 10 Homers, I think he loses a lot of his value and fantasy,

in Keeper of the Apes in particular. Yeah, to me almost feels like the ship sailed as far as the max value goes. It would have been probably this time last year because he had run the previous season. He was running more. Everything was still in place. I think he's still going to be a solid player. I just think it's a big difference in terms

of expectations going forward. And to be fair, I think one of the things you could have seen last year, and it's really hard to see this, one of the things you could have seen last year, and it's really hard to see this. One of the things you could have seen last year is that, you know, his running last year went counter to a lot of trends. Like it didn't even fit with the base running rules because they'd been implemented, no, was it the base running rules? Well, he has a 13 in 2022 before the base running rules.

But generally there's like an aging curve here that does not before the base running rules, but generally there's like an aging curve here that does not fit the regular aging curve, you know? So when you have these little weird blips that counter the regular aging curve, the reason aging curves exist is most of the time things hue that direction. So you could have said, you know what? I think Freddie Freeman is great, but I don't think he's going to steal 20 bases again next year. And I mean, obviously you would have been right in hindsight, but I think Freddie Freeman's great, but I don't think he's going to steal 20 bases again next year. And I mean, obviously you would have been right in hindsight,

but I think that also is supported by the trends in his, in his, in his data, just looking at his age, looking at how aging curves treat, uh, uh, stone bases. So it was also fair to us to be like, well, maybe there's a new run environment now in terms of running, you know, maybe, maybe he's this old and he can just steal 15 bags every year. But I think the stronger element is that aging curves hate stolen bases. And if you look at, you know, we can use speed score as a proxy for for running speed. Speed scores put together by Bill James and it's basically like doubles and taking the extra base and a lot of these things. Uh, his speed score is now 3.3,

average is five. Um, and of the guys that we'll talk about today, uh, most of them have below average speed scores and there's something there I think to kind of tell you that yes, this is the aging curve. This is what's happening. They are aging. Like you can see it in their athleticism. And so I think you see that with Freddie Freeman in terms of the speed score. And I forget what the question was. I mean, is this the right time to move on? I think we will have other people on our list that are less like might have a better

return on value, like more or less. Obviously guys, like I think if you go shopping, Freddie Freeman in your league right now, people will see you coming. Yeah. You might be better off holding in this instance because batting average, great batting average with that kind of run production also kind of hard to find in season as well. Interesting that when he stole all those bases last year, Freddie Freeman had a 34th percentile sprint speed. That is remarkable. He's down to the 25th percentile so far in 2024. So projection say 16 home runs. He doesn't look like when you see him run, it doesn't look like he's fat.

No, but I think you know who taught me a long time ago that the way you look or even your actual raw speed is not as important in base stealing as you might think is Carlos Lee. Carlos Lee used to pick his spots really, really well. Wasn't a burner by any stretch of the imagination. More bases than you expect. Vato usually had a handful. Yeah, so you might be right.

The line might be just to the point where everybody sees it coming with Freddie Friedman and you're kind of disappointed with what you get back and you're better off holding, unless you're in the full blown, I have no chance this year, I have no chance next year, in which case better now than later.

Yeah. How about Marcus Simeon as a player that might fit this description? This is what I'm talking about in terms of like, you know, here's a guy that I don't think people are thinking about in this way yet. I mean, he's not struggling. Uh, he's played, you know, all the time. Um, you know, at 33, you don't think, oh, he's 35, 36, this is over. Uh, you know, he's hit nine hom oh, he's 35 36. This is over

You know, he's hit nine homers and he's projected for another 18. So you expect You know expect him to hit near 30 homers again. You expect him to have a nice batting average He's playing every day again It seems and you can look at the barrel right and say yeah, it's pretty good and his raw Miss maxi V is the best that's ever been so it's like, you he's just going to be more of a slugger type and not steal as many bases. But again, you know, the drop in stolen bases and the drop in the speed score do tell us something about Marcus Simeon. He is now finally below average when it comes to speed score.

And we know that at some point he's not going to play every day. I mean, it's just not it's not tenable for somebody to go and be at 36, 37 years old and be putting up 750 play appearances a year. I just I don't I

don't think it's really been done. And so if you just you again, you adhere to the the the aging curves and know what's coming from there and you see the little inkling when it comes to the speed score. I think this is a pretty good time to shop for Marcus Samuels. Yeah, we've seen it now beginning of this season and 2022 OVP has dipped times when the walk rate kind of slides to the lower end of its normal range. So that chips away at some chances to run as he ages.

It's just impossible to expect any player to rack up volume the way he has. This three year stretch from Marcus Semyon between 21 and 23, he started all but one game. That is unbelievable. Only one stolen base so far this season and kind of strange because while the speed scores down the sprint speed is not He's still 83rd percentile in sprint speed So I don't know if it's just the function of not being on base in the right situations enough or what exactly it is But I think you'd be watching you get a lot back trying to stay healthy. Here are the guys who put together 700 plate appearances plus at 35 plus in the modern era Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Craig

Bgeo, Brian Giles, Rafael Pimero, Raul Ibanez, Steve Finley. That's about it. There's some performance enhancers on there. Otherwise, there's a little bit of like, Oh, Simian could be like a BGO, couldn't he? Yeah, I mean, I think so. Like there's, there's a reason to tell yourself that sort of story. But I think even if he continues to play at the high volume, if he avoids injuries, takes care of himself, has both good fortune and the kind of puts in that work that he's always done. Okay, the skills are still going to decline. Like we see flashes of that kind of baked in. He's a very good player, but this looks like one of those peaks before you start to have that

gradual sort of decline. So I would say that Semyon certainly fits that description. And when you look at his spray chart, look where he hits the ball, right? He pulls a ton of balls. I think that's also gonna whittle away at that batting average a little bit over time as the quality of the contact fades. Yeah, I think there is something to this. I mean, I know it's anecdotal,

but Brian Dozier had this approach and he was like great for a few years. And then it just poof. And I feel like great for a few years and then it just poof. And I, and I feel like there's something of you're walking somewhat of a timeline, a tight line, tight rope when you are yes, he's pulling the ball and he's pulling the air. I, I, I just, I don't know exactly how,

I don't know if I have the analytical tools or the, the, the scouting or like the, the, the proof yet, but it just feels like something that can fall off. And the one way that I can tell you this is that we know how predictive barrels are. And to have a guy that's just been out producing his barrels for so long, it's very tempting to say he can continue to do this. But you also know this is a little bit like the aging curve with stolen bases and Freddie Freeman's pop-up year is like, usually the numbers went out.

So at some point you would expect him to kind of recede to the power levels that his barrels predict because that's been generally what the population has done. I know there are outliers, but I think that age does a really big number on outliers You know like if you are an outlier, it's likely that you're doing something physically that is Putting you in that outlier space that may not be easy to do when you're 36 So and I wish I could tell you exactly what that is if it's a turn if it's a there's, if there's, if it's a body thing, I don't know what it is, but in this particular case, but he also shares it with, I think the other name on this list

that, um, is a guy that I would be shopping pretty hardcore right now if I had him. Um, even though he is playing really well and seems like he can do it forever is Jose Altuve. playing really well and seems like he can do it forever is Jose Altuve. Jose Altuve's pull rate is up to 62%. He is outproduced his barrels every year of his career. He still makes great contact. He's still running. He's got seven bags.

Like, I think that like somebody in a keeper league would see a tremendous value this year and would tell themselves, you know, at least two more years I can get out of him. You know, if he's this good this year, he'll be maybe a little bit less good next year and still a little bit next the next year. And it'll still be great. If you want to talk about Craig Bijo, here's somebody that, you know, I could see doing that. But with Altuve, it's a little different from Simeon is we've seen some injuries and they haven't all been freak injuries like being hit by on the hand or whatever. We've seen some sort of soft tissue injuries. So not only, uh, does he outproduce some of the numbers that we find very predictive,

but his volume is even more at threat than Simeon's, I believe. Yeah, I mean, you look at where batted balls have gone for LTV, you mentioned that pull rate just being extremely high. He's just got a few clusters of spots on the field where he hits the ball. That becomes more and more problematic over time.

So I could definitely see that. Think it makes sense to try and move on from El Tuve in a long-term league as soon as possible, just because the injuries have started to pile up on him. And it's been an amazing run. All these guys, you look at them and say, yeah, they're still gonna be useful. It's just that this is your last chance to really max it out

if you haven't moved them already. One more, one more guy that still lives up in the first round on a pretty regular basis. Jose Ramirez, are we finally seeing warts in the profile of Jose Ramirez that would make him fit into this category as well because of all the names we've mentioned so far? He's a little bit younger and I think he would still return more than the others because of where he was back on draft day. Yeah I mean we've made a little a little cheat sheet here of all the names that were mentioned and he's one of the younger players on this list you know just to just to kind of think about the younger end of this list is could tell Marte and Vladimir Vladimir Grarad Jr.

We're on this list as well. But then Jose Ramirez is the youngest other than them to, you know, of the players on this list, he has the best strikeout rate, which is important because you strike out more as you as you go on. But also, and he also has the the highest fly ball rate and the high and the lowest maxi V and one in the second lowest barrel. Right. So he is doing the semi and out to a thing where he's trying to pull everything in the air and it's you're not seeing

it so much in the pull percentage with him, but you're seeing it in the fly ball rate. And to have a decent average and have a 52 percent fly ball rate does again, I bring up this tightrope idea. It's like there does seem to be something that could fall apart in this profile. I like that he can fall back on his contact and that he is still able to run. And this one, I hate to, you know, kind of hedge my bets. This one I'm not as sure about. I'm not, maybe you could just hold onto this guy for a while and get, you know,

260 or 250 with your, you know, 25 to 25 plus, 20 plus stolen bases for a few more years. I don't know. It's um, it's not obvious to me But the the 52% fly ball rate is the biggest of his career and has always made me nervous a lot of the mostly guys That hit 50% fly balls and plus have batting averages started around 220 Yeah, I think I've wondered a few times when things have started to dip in that particular Department the badip department is this the the end of Jose altube being good in batting average and His range has included some 250s in the past He's been a little unlucky on balls and play but also the approach lends itself to a low badip

So there's there's that to worry about but he's seven for eight is a base deal. He's got a dozen homers and 48 games. That's a 35, 21 pace. Like what, what more do we want? It's just apparently Cleveland is playing like a new launching pad. Yeah. And I guess the other part of it too, it's a little bit like the Semi and run over the last three seasons, a slightly lower total in terms of games played and played appearances, but one 52, 157, 156, right?

Just a shade under 700 played appearance each of the last two seasons. You wonder when it starts to catch up to him for the, for the man that once wondered if your name was Nino. The, uh, the raw, the, the, the max TV is, is, is going down. The barrel rates are coming down off of his peak. He's obviously post peak. It's just a question of how quickly he'll age. And the nice thing is that he does seem to be a five tool player.

And my long term assumption has been that if you truly are a five tool player, that you will age pretty well. I know that goes against some of the Simian stuff, but I don't know what Simian's raw power tool really is. know that that might be like a 45 50 Making the most of it though for sure that's been the key in all of that You mentioned Vlad jr. As a bit of a flyby there. He's the outlier in the group I just wanted him on the rundown because I think if we're thinking about timing a player and Trading them relative to how your league values him

If we're thinking about timing a player and trading them relative to how your league values him, we're still in that point where I think getting Vlad Jr. onto a team would excite a lot of people. I traded for him this year. Yeah. He's just turned 25 in March. I think you can talk yourself into the possibility that we haven't seen his best season yet, but the further we get from 2021, the harder it is to do that. Is there one more level there or is this a good time to say, yeah, 30 plus homers annually with a great batting average,

that might not be who this guy is. It's another one of the mysteries in Toronto, especially when you consider Vlad is chasing less than ever this season. His hard hit rate is at 58.3% and his barrel rate is the second best of his career at 12.2%. So there hasn't been that much of a drop at all in the contact quality since that massive 2021 season, but that was played at Dunedin and Buffalo and with a different ball. There was just a lot of stuff that made a great season and outstanding one that year And I'm having a really hard time kind of deciding Where's the baseline and where is the ceiling based on what's happened in the two years since then? Yeah, I bought because of a general trend

In the positive direction for his launch angle. It wasn't great early the season But if you look over the course of his career, he's generally like been marching that forward a little bit by a little bit. It does go backwards. He does regress, but he is trying to lift the ball. And then, you know, I love that the chase rate is down. I love that the max CV is where it's always been, which is at the top of the league. I love that the barrel rate is still good.

I love that swing strike rate is down. I love that the walk rate is up. There's a lot to like about what he's doing. There's been people who have hit 25 to 30 homers with a 45 to 48 49 percent of ground ball rate. So he doesn't even need to necessarily lift the ball more. I think what he needs to do is pull the ball more. He's pulled the ball 40% for his career is 34.5% right now. And I think that something's doable. And what I see with him, what I see with a lot of players is just trying to find that ideal contact point. How far out in front does he need to be? You know,

the fact that the swing strike rate and the, and the ground ball rate and the oppo rate, um, you know, he's improved the swing strike rate and the ground ball rate and the oppo rate, you know, he's improved the swing strike rate and the ground ball rate is up and the oppo rate is up, says to me that he's letting the ball travel a little bit. All he needs is a little bit of success to be encouraged to kind of go and get the ball. If he goes and gets the ball, we know he can hit homers and bunches. So I'm saying don't trade him if you think you're going to be good in the next few years, the age is still on his side. 25. Uh,

the raw skills are still here. I know it takes, it's a little bit harder to believe in, but at the very least, if you do buy him, I think you're going to get, you know, 270 with 25 to 30 homers. All right. So even if 20, 23 is the baseline, that's still a really good player. And we're in a run environment this year that's inched back in the direction of pitchers, too.

So it is all relative, you know, when you start to look at how a player is performing. But you're right about just this need to lift and pull the ball more consistently. It seems like it's there. I can't, I can't convince myself that he doesn't have the ability. It's more of pitch selection or something in that category rather than raw ability. He's a, he's got a flat bad path. Um, and he really wants to yank pitches up and in out. That's what we learned from the home

run Derby. And that's something you can see in the sc in out. That's what we learned from the home run Derby. And that's something you can see in the scouting reports. And so what people do is fill up the bottom of the zone. And because he has good contact, he was about to ball and he can still swing hard. Uh, he can hit those balls down in the zone hard. Um, and he does so, and he, on some level he has to do so otherwise they'll just do it forever but If he's not gonna change the sort of path that he does

Then then more often than not he should lay off the pitches low in the zone My evidence that he can do that is the improving chase rate, you know He just needs to do the Adrian Beltre where he focuses on high fastballs destroys them, and Wansoto does this. You know, it's very similar to Wansoto. It's not quite as elite when it comes to the plate discipline, but he likes to hit the high fastball and he doesn't want to hit the low fastball, and he mostly wants to spit on that. That's Wansoto's plan at the plate. And he mostly wants to spit on that. That's what that's Soto's plan at the plate.

Yeah, when you look at some of the things that have happened to these two players, I do feel like the lower end outcomes for Juan Soto have been criticized less than the lower end outcomes for Vlad Jr. And I don't know why exactly. I mean, if you lived in San Diego, there was a fair amount of criticism being passed around for his year in San Diego, there was a fair amount of criticism being passed around for his year in San Diego that still ended up with a 275 average 35 homers and 12 stolen bases.

People were mad about that. And you know, weird, as the team goes, I guess. You're the guy that's supposed to make it better. And well, we're we're still the team that team that we've always been in so many ways. I guess that's part of where that was coming from. But yeah, I mean, a really fun group of players that still have a lot there, but maybe that drop off is just around the corner.

We'll get to a few other names, probably at some point down the road, because it's a never ending supply of players to ask questions about. I think Atalys Garcia might be one we get to on a future episode. I thought we should make sure we talk about him, but you know, I think our listeners know how we feel about him. I think we knew, well, we didn't know, but I think based on the way his career started and his approach as he broke in, I had legitimate

questions about how fast the peak would go by. And actually, he's done it for longer than I expected. And the thing he did last year that I never saw coming was jumping up that walk rate, showing more patience last year. But it's gone again. It's gone back to where it was. And then you start to say, okay, he's back to the player he was in 21 and 22. And that's still a really good player.

But we're already post-peak. I mean, people have to remember he's 31, you know. There's more chase here compared to, I think, everybody we've talked about so far. Way more chase outside of the zone. We know O-Swing, if you run that at a high rate, you're not going to age particularly well. Yeah, I'm fairly sure that sometime in the next three years, the strikeout rate is going to pass 30% again and never come back.

Yeah, and when you don't get on base that often because the walk rate is low, you start sinking in the order, you start losing playing times. Speed score is under 5.0. Yeah, a lot of concern there with Ataliz Garcia. Maybe an opportunity though because sometimes the panic gets to the level where price drops more than it should. That would be the thing I'd be watching out for with Garcia as well. If everybody in league is looking at his O-swing then maybe you should just look at his raw UV and say, hey, you know what, he's still hitting the ball super hard. Exactly. All right, let's flip this upside down. Let's look for some growth potential in underperforming players timing the market just right and it's funny that we're going to talk about O'Neil Cruz

again and it's funny that it's coming off of a day when he smashed a couple of balls. He broke some stack-ass records, I think. First to hit 120 twice in a game, I think it was. Yeah, and he hit three balls, 115 plus. Right, so is what we see what we get for a reasonable baseline on O'Neill Cruz? Because if it is, he's sitting close to a full year in the big leagues now,

stretched out over parts of I think three different seasons, actually four because he debuted at the very end of 21. It's 244 with a 303 OBP, 446 slug, 33.6% K-rate, 26 homers, 17 steals. That's a good player. And then the question just comes back to how much do you think the approach changes? Is it like a godfather type player? Is it like a I'm going to give you Freddie Freeman and Adolise Garcia and? I don't know who's a old but pretty good pitcher.

Gossman. Again, Gossman, right? And I'm gonna give you everything you need to win the championships this year and you give me O'Neill Cruz. Right, O'Neill Cruz is the centerpiece and you get a couple other throw-ins at the bottom of the trade to round it out.

I'm not sure that work against lefties and a 33% strikeout rate just in terms of who's successful in the big leagues over a long period of time with a 30% strikeout rate. I'm just going to go back to 2022 and the people over 30% that even were qualified bats. So these guys are successful. Brandon Marsh, Jack Swinski, Eugenio Suarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Kyle Schwab, Rattasca Hernandez. I'm not saying these are all bad players. What I'm saying is none of them are superstars.

You don't like if you built your team around one of these guys, you'd be like, OK, I got some flaws on my team. It's true. I think the bigger flaw isn't the overall K rate. It's the possibility that he doesn't play against lefties forever. He has to do better against lefties and they can give him plenty of time. I'm not saying they should do this now. At some point, he becomes a big side platoon player if he doesn't do better

against lefties, unless they're going to hit him eighth or ninth or something forever against lefties, I guess that's a possibility too. It's just, it's strange. He's got a 38 WRC plus for his career against lefties. Cause he's got a 46.6% K rate. Yeah. Off the charts bad against righties only 28.3%. So you could start to see, Oh yeah.

Okay. Well against righties players that get under that 30% threshold, even by a little, I think have a lot better outcomes than the guys that are north of 30 with the K rate. The other thing about O'Neill Cruz is that the defense isn't good. Of the players that we've highlighted today, there are players with much worse defensive scores,

but he's the only one that plays a premium defensive position and has a poor defensive score. You know, in terms of, you know, other guys that we'll talk, that we might talk about on this list, like Jordan Walker, yes, he has way worse defense than O'Neal Cruz, obviously. But he's also not He's gonna either hit and be good or not be in peril of losing his job because of defense so if you put together the platoon risk with the fact that O'Neill Cruz has by most accounts a Negative defensive value at his position right now He is minus three and OAA

which above among short stops is only worst by the only people worse or CJ Abrams, Mookie Betts, Javier Baez, Saddam Rafaela. Like two of those guys aren't even I don't even know if Mookie Betts can be a shortstop next year, you know. And there's a fair amount of age in that grouping. So if Cruz ends up at third, then it's easy to platoon him, right? Then it becomes easier to platoon him. Or even right field. Maybe he's a right fielder. Yeah. Or if he's a right fielder. So, you know, he can move to places. It's hard to platoon your shortstop.

Marco Luciano just got called up with the Giants and what did Bob Melvin say? If he's in the major leagues, he's our shortstop. That's how I've always felt about shortstops is that nobody really wants to platoon there. They're the captain of the infield, the captain of the defense. And so, you know, that's why I thought, you know, I'm all in on Ellie this year. And I think it's cool to be on in on O'Neill for now. But both of those players have some risk of moving off their position and that would highlight and exacerbate their their issues against same-handed batters or in

Ellie's the craze. It's a When he bats righty. Yeah. Yeah, since Ellie switch hits he he tries to get around it But that's also a reason like Ellie a little bit better than O'Neill, you know, it's like he's a switch hitter It's maybe it's more likely to get figured out and have him stay at the position longer. So it sounds like you're a little more on the no as far as the Godfather offer goes. Like you, you, you would trade for him in the long run, but he's not the kind of player you're basically waving the white flag

for this season on and taking back as the main piece in a huge trade. Yes, and I'm not sure that we have that person on our list because we in our list sort of tried to think about attainable. So, you know, he might be one of the better people on our list, but if I was really going to go all in, I might just ask for, you know, somebody who is playing well. Sure. Like, if I'm really giving you the Godfather offer. What we have on this list is people have flaws that make them attainable. I would say that on our list, he's one of the better options. But I wonder if I don't, on some level, like another shortstop on this list a little bit better,

Zach Neto is doing a lot of the things that we wanted him to do. He does not have the raw tools of O'Neill Cruise. His below average speed score, his max EV is 100 hundred, ten points lower, ten miles per hour lower than O'Neill Cruz's. His barrel rate is nine percent to O'Neill Cruz's 15.7. But there's a sort of polish to his game that makes me less nervous about him moving off the position. His team loves to steal bases. So even if his raw speed isn't that amazing,

I think he'll still put up 15 to 20 most years. And I do think there's another level where he puts together some of that raw power gets to a little bit better with some of that contact ability, with some of the patients he showed in the minor leagues and gets you to a and I think this is I think this is more attainable. It's like a lower ceiling, but more attainable in that Neto, I think, can get to a 275 25 25 season without too much work. And what did you say? O'Neill Cruz was over the last over basically a year to 44 26 17.

So my my best out of netto is better than what O'Neill Cruz has done so far. Now obviously O'Neill Cruz has the higher ceiling than that. I mean he could put together a 30 30 season for all I know. I just think that it's a little bit less likely he does that. I guess the shallower your team is, the more you want Cruz and the deeper your team is, the more you want Neto. Yeah, yeah, the floor is key there, but yeah,

I mean, the quality of contact difference between the two. And I think it's interesting that for now, at least, Cruz actually swings at fewer pitches outside the zone than Neto. Yeah. The interesting thing here, Cruz missed swings at fewer pitches outside the zone than Neto. Yeah. The interesting thing here, Cruz missed a lot of time because of injury. So lost development time there. Neto got rushed through the minors so fast by the Angels.

Forty eight games in the minors. Both both still have more growth potential because of. And developing to do in the major leagues, for sure. Yeah, like more time to learn on the job. I think that's really kind of interesting just looking at those two. 37.9% O swing this year. It's more, sorry, the O swing percentage is higher for Cruz if you look at their careers by just a hair,

but for this year Neto is swinging at more pitches outside the zone by a small margin. Similar flaws for both players, but different, very different ceilings, I would say, and different paths to get there. You mentioned Jordan Walker in passing before. So he's been down to triple A. We haven't talked about him since he got demoted. No homers during his time back at triple A in 18 games, hitting 300 got a 359 OPP 14 percent K rate, lowest K rate he's ever had at any level.

It smacks to me like they told him to work on making contact. Which is weird because he only struck out 22.4% of the time last year. The thing I don't understand about the Cardinals and Jordan Walker is that he had a good rookie season at the plate. He was 16% better than league average. I know he's a bad defender. That's your fault as an organization for having multiple DHS come through in your group of young players or not figuring it out via trade. Right. That's, that's on the front office more than it's on Walker or Nolan Gorman. So I think this is a great window to try and get Walker. I think he's probably the youngest player with this much big league experience

that we're going to talk about today. He's still just 22. Actually, happy birthday. Turn 22 today. They should promote him. Call him back up for a birthday present. I think because the long term outlook on him with that raw power is so good and he's proven he could do it at the big league level on so it like to some degree.

I'm absolutely a believer. I think we have reached this point with the Cardinals where we can't trust them as being even an average organization in player development right now. They were above average for a very long time. Something's different. They've lost they've lost personnel. I mean, Jeff Albert left and went to the Mets and, you know, they've lost.

They lost some coaches along the way. Their hitting coaches are different. Like it's in the major leagues. Like it's it's it's a different organization. And for them, like the focus has really been on improving the pitching side. But I think in the main in the same time, like the hitting side has really fallen off. But if you just sort the kind of players that we were interested in and thought might be attainable by Maxi V which is not a bad sort because what you're saying is you know

what where does noise come from in short samples it is producing power. I think it's on the hitting side and on the pitching side. If you look at ISO, slugging, barrels, and if you look at barrels allowed and ISO allowed and you know that sort of stuff, they take massive samples on hitting and pitching side to become useful. But MaxDV is useful right as soon as you do it and it describes your power upside and in a way that your current power levels don't. So I think this is an interesting way to sort the players that we've come up with. Max EV, O'Neill Cruz number one, Jordan Walker number two, Henry Davis number three, Yainir Diaz

number four, Zach Neto number five, Nolan Goerin number six. Those guys all hit it over 110 miles an hour and some of them have good barrel rates and some don't. Some of them have good contact rates and some don't. But if you add it together with good contact rates, you kind of you get these you get like a Yiner Diaz is probably the you know the guy who sticks out even Henry Davis sticks out if you want to do like a combined sort of swing strike rate max EV special sauce but what it is interesting about these guys is none of them run that well. At least from a speed score standpoint.

Cruz still runs and steals bases, Neto steals bases. You do wonder if that's the thing that they will do for a long time. Sure, it might be a three to four year thing as opposed to a five plus year sort of thing. But what are you doing in your fantasy league? You're trying to win the next couple of years. So yeah, you're not looking much further than three years down the road.

Like I said, despite all the flaws that I focused on with Cruz, I think that's why he's on our list. That's why he's attainable. My favorites are Cruz and Neto. I like Walker to some extent, but he does not offer you any speed upside. And I do think that the ceiling maybe for Walker

might be like a 240 hitter with 35 homers. It's not bad. It's not so much a foundational piece and it's a little bit more attainable in the marketplace. Yeah, I mean, I guess the hard thing about training for a player that has fewer than five categories that they're gonna be productive in is that it puts more stress

on the categories they're good at. If you're wrong, if Jordan Walker takes a few years to get to 30 homerun power with that regular run of playing time, you're probably going to be disappointed. And the rest of the time he's hitting like two 20, two 30 with, you know, 20 homers. Then yeah, you, you might even drop him before he gets to that point. I mean, he's, he's 22. So he could, he could take two years to get to that point and turn us all off of

him by the time he could be a post hype sleeper two years from now. I, if I'm looking at Walker versus Spencer Torkelson, I think I'm trading for Walker instead. I don't know what it is about Spencer Torkelson. I mean a 109 raw MaxDV at this point in the season says something. It's just weird to me. I thought he would be better. I thought we would get better numbers during his time in the upper levels of the miners. Just in the sense that like the average no BP came in light.

He doesn't strike out a lot. He draws his walks. I don't know. I don't know why, but I still see a higher ceiling on Walker than I do on Torkelson, even though the high water mark we just saw from Torkelson in the big leagues is a lot of the things you described us wanting to get from Walker. I think Walker can do it with a better batting average.

I think Walker can hit the ball a little more, even though he's had a higher strikeout rate, Torkelson. And it's just like, is it the extreme pole and lift? Just the extreme fly ball problem that is gonna hold him back? I wonder. Plus Park, I mean there's a Park influence. Jordan Walker, you know, that's St. Louis is not an easy park either.

I think it's more consistent hard contact. Comes back to our conversation from last year about best speed, taking the 50% of your hardest hit balls and looking at that. I think because Walker hits the ball harder on a regular basis than a lot of players, that's where I have some faith that the batting average comes in better, even if the game power ends up being similar. If he's a 30 homerun guy instead of a 40 homerun guy, they're equal in that category, but I think Jordan Walker is not going to have that same batting average anchor quality to him

that Spencer Torkelson has shown us now throughout his career. Plus, I mean, it's just, it's just so weird. He's had more sample this year than Walker Torkelson. And, you know, I, when I sorted by maxi VR list that we had, it's just so weird that a guy like Tyler Freeman. Has a better maxi V and a better barrel rate than Spencer Torkelson. Like something's like that's strange. That's not who Tyler Freeman is. We're hoping Tyler Freeman turns into a 280, 1515 guy and that you, and, and there's some evidence for that.

I mean, even since he's moved into the leadoff spot and he's been that, you know, and there was some. Unluck on batted balls, but in terms of moved into the leadoff spot, he's been that, you know? And there was some, unlucky on batted balls, but in terms of making him the centerpiece of any sort of deal or going out and, and trying to acquire him from somebody who knows you want him. I don't know if Freeman is,

is almost worth it cause that ceiling is, is lower than most of the people we're talking about here. Freeman fits into the throw in bucket. I would say Leody Tavares is a similar player that also does a lot of the same things. Kind of should be better in the future. Isn't doing so well now. Could be attainable.

Is 25. People seem to forget. Could get better than he was last year. Doesn't have to be useful. Like you take that chance. Could just give you what you get your last year and be fine. Yeah. Yeah. A couple more names that I think

are a little trickier. Alex Kiriloff. I think Alex Kiriloff's a tough player for me to figure out. I've got him in an auto new league where he's like five bucks and that's fine. It's not cost prohibitive. He's not the kind of player that's gonna get bumped up a lot in arbitration.

People aren't gonna throw the extra dollars on Alex Kiriloff when they're looking at my roster this winter, most likely. Down this year compared to what he's done previously. He's dealt with a lot of wrist injuries over the course of his career. He's never had a problem with strikeouts. How much of the early struggle is bad luck on balls and play? How much of it is something maybe being a little bit off in his approach?

Something you suggested when we were putting this together yesterday was maybe Kiriloff doesn't have the same philosophy and approach that a lot of twins hitters do. Maybe there's a slight misalignment between what he wants to do and what the twins want their hitters to do. Well, the twins lead the league most years in pulled fly balls and in barrels and, you know, in EV generally. They seem to be really a go get the ball hit it hard Hit it hard in the air kind of organization

His pull rates are below average, especially for a pull like a first baseman type. I don't know like a slugger type I guess that's what he is. He has no foot speed. He has no defensive value So his pull rates are low and his fly ball rates are low thirty percent for his career is it's interesting about this year thirty seven thirty percent for his career is really low fly ball rate for a guy like this. And then his maxi bees are really unremarkable one oh eight coming into this year one way plus and one oh six seven this year he's gotten his barrel rate more than you might expect given that maxi be. He's gotten to his barrel rate more than you might expect given that max eevee. But if some of those barrels are going to be oppo barrels, I'm going to be less interested in them. And you do wonder if there's a misalignment between, you know, what he does and what the organization values, like, are they going to play the up and down game with him?

Is the up like, is his lower number of plate appearances just the result of injury or is it also because they've sent him to the minor leagues? I mean, it's kind of hard to read what's a rehab stint and what's not, but you know, 2022, 157 plate appearances in AAA, 2023, 73, it might be that's, that's a little bit more than just a rehab, you know? So he's kind of, he seems stuck in between and from watching, I think

his defense is really poor. And so I don't. So when you said that, like, if you don't do something in the five tools, like it puts pressure on everything else and it puts pressure on what you do well. Like when I read that and I think about Alex Kirilov, I say, wow, he

really needs to hit to make it work. And he hasn't really shown me exactly the, at least the way the twins want to hit. And I'm increasingly negative about him. He's just like hanging on by a thread of my rostrics. The things I see that are working, he's swinging less at pitches outside the zone. The barrel rates kind of crept back up each season.

I think some of that's a sign of health. The hard hit rate this year is in line with his career norms. I see a little bit of bad luck here. The question you put out there is basically, are the twins gonna stick with him long enough for him to avoid losing playing time? He loses playing time, he loses value for us,

and then everything starts to fall apart. So I'm cautiously holding a little bit more, looking at him as maybe a throw-in type player. It's interesting when you look at the last three seasons combined, you know, Gavin Lux has obviously missed a lot of time, he's hit the torn ACL. Same kind of performance, like a league average, barely above league average bat.

Less power from Gavin Lux though. Fewer strikeouts, less power. I've highlighted Gavin Lux's flaws a lot, and I think most people think, would be surprised that I even had a share this year. though, fewer strikeouts, less power. I've highlighted Gavin Flux's flaws a lot. And, and, um, I think most people think would be surprised that I even had a share this year, I did have a share, um, and, and I caught him recently in auto new. So like, you know, I'm not talking about redraft. That would be an obvious cut earlier than that.

Um, and so, um, I, I thought, you know, maybe they give him the job finally. And he's the shortstop all year. And even with lower power levels, he gets to 10 or 11 homers and 10 or 11 steals and his really quality plate approach shines through. And he has good batting average or OVP or whatever. I not sure I see that anymore. The only way that I'm interested in Gavin Lux and and Alex Kiriloff at this point Going forward I think is if they're with a new organization And then even then it's like I'm gonna try and get him for a dollar and auto new type type situation

I don't know that I want them even in the trade, because then I'll have them be on my roster and have to be thinking about them and will I cut them or not. The most interesting name for me that is struggling this year that I think could be a really great acquisition or not work out and I hate to hedge before I even name his name, but, um, it's just, I think I find it fascinating is Evan Carter. You've got elite not swinging at balls and he's not, he's not a Seeger guy, you know, because he doesn't swing at, at, at, uh, balls in the zone, you know, he strikes in the zone. He doesn't swing at balls.

He's just passive overall and Maybe just you know hitting next to Seeger The namesake of Seeger the stat that tells you you should swing at strikes and swing hard Maybe he'll get some growth out of that. I could see him being more aggressive in the zone. That'd be great 33% hard hit rate right now 1066 max EV, 25% strike rate with an 8% swinging strike rate. So, he's just nibbling at these tools.

Oh my gosh, he could be making great contacts on the future, and maybe if he becomes more aggressive, he pulls the ball more, and he hits the ball hard and the barrel rate goes up and then all of a sudden we've got a guy who's hitting 275 with like a 400 OBP and he's doing like 20-20 seasons. That is one way the multiverse goes. The other way is just more of this where he's like a platoon guy Who kind of goes up and down is like I oh my god I just had the the grossest name come to my head. No

Like a like a slightly better Robbie Grossman Yeah, but on the other side Grossman mostly played against lefties Carter being a lefty would play against righties He'd be on the big side of the platoon. That's a good point. Because I think the plate skills are good enough. Evan Carter. That didn't gross you out as much as I expected it to. No, because they just didn't quite fit for me. If you gave me a right-handed hitter

that you thought was going to fall into the lefty mashing role and not play against same-handed pitching, then the Robbie Grossman gulp would scare me. It's like, ah, it's a good real-life player, but it's not a good fantasy player because it's usually not enough volume. And then by the time he gets a onto a bad enough team to let them just play, then it's late in his career and it's a bargain bin sort of thing. Like Grossman kind of was in Detroit.

Evan Carter makes a ton of sense because there's a lot of ways he can be good. He can be good in average, no VP. He can be good in speed and get to that power. It can become more aggressive. That's a dial of ways he can be good. He can be good in average no BP, he can be good in speed, he can get to that power. He can become more aggressive. That's a dial you can turn too. I feel like if you're too passive, but you really understand the zone, great.

You could become more aggressive. You understand balls and strikes. You probably have a pretty good read. He became more aggressive and it was a great season. Yeah, you probably have a pretty good understanding of how teams are pitching to you and how guys are approaching you. And I think if you have that, then you've got a really good foundational skill set.

I think Carter might be the most difficult player to trade for other than possibly a new accrues. It depends on who has them in your league but I fully support going after Evan Carter. Still on prospect list, hasn't quite graduated yet but I think a lot of times the best bargains are the guys that have graduated, have underperformed, are still young and are still good. And that's sort of where all the lines intersect for me with Jordan Walker. That's part of why I'm willing to take that risk on Jordan Walker, especially because people are probably getting frustrated that he's still a AAA. I thought there was going to be a quicker stint

in the minors than it has been so far. Got one prospect question for today that kind of relates to all of this. This comes from Kevin via email. Kevin's in a dynasty keeper points league, but this can stretch to any sort of format. Kevin's question is, are there any must have prospects that should be aggressively pursued in trade? So this would sort of be the which players are worth taking back out of the prospect world as the main piece in a trade where you're giving up a lot of present value. And of course, top prospects, we've talked a lot about guys like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Holliday,

even Jackson Churio, who's going through the big league struggles right now. These are a lot of names people are familiar with and are trying to get. Sometimes they're not gettable. Maybe you got to go to that next group behind them. So who do you think sort of takes the mantle from the likes of Langford, Holliday, Choreo, once they graduate? Because once Langford comes back from his injury, he's gonna get bumped off of lists.

Choreo's getting closer to that point the longer he spends in the big leagues. Who do you see as being worth getting now before they carry the extra sheen from being at the top prospect list? It might be too late for these guys, but James Wood and Junior Caminero are, I think, going to be two, three in some midseason list. And they come out because you're right.

I mean, Holliday will still hang on. But at some point he might come back up and play. And a lot of these guys are graduating skeins is in the middle of graduating and Merrill's going to be graduating off soon. So, you know, it might be too late because they're already near the top. And James Wood seems to be playing his way onto the Washington roster. Really? Both of these guys actually are playing so well in the minors that they they might be

You know with us, you know any time now, but I Did want to bring them up because you know, sometimes it's worth even trading Like an Evan Carter for James Wood, you know what I mean? Mmm Like sometimes it's worth putting in a little bit of youth to get one of these guys. And one of the trades, I've talked about this before, that just blew my mind was a trade in a 20-team league where they gave up Paul Goldschmidt in his prime of his career. So this was before Ron Bocconha Jr. was in the major leagues. James Trudeau traded

Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Kluber and another player. This is like prime Paul Goldschmidt. I was like, what for a minor leaguer? And it was before Acuna had sort of ascended, I think. And so that maybe that won't work for Wood or Kameniro. But if you kind of think past like i'm just gonna give rentals. What i'm just gonna give this if you actually give something that hurts to give it might be worth giving some that hurts to give for wooden caminero. And they're very different in that would swing is a little bit long and like could he be like a jordan walker with speed could he have some of those similar struggles? Maybe

And then jr. Camaro doesn't steal bases So could he turn into a guy who it's 280 with 25 homers and not have that superstar status? Yes, they both have questions but if you kind of go through what they've been doing and read more about them and are all in consider giving more than you expect to get the guy you want because, you know, getting a guy before his consensus number one is a way to profit in, in dynasty leagues. Yeah. And if you're paying top 10 prices,

but you think he's a consensus number one kind of guy could turn to superstar. That's a little bit more James Wood than junior Kevin Arrow for me. Yeah, I mean, Kevin Arrow might just be the guy by default if the guys ahead of him graduate because he's closer to the top of the list already. And then would it's a little more of a leap in some leagues. I think if you're in a league full of people who are super sharp, they're probably all over what woods doing right now and really hesitant to move him. But the trade you described peak Paul Goldschmidt was an early first round pick.

So if you're giving him away with an ace in a trade and you could combine some more analysis from earlier, right? Like Vlad Guerrero. For James Wood, think about that like Vlad Junior plus something to get some top end prospects. I think that's look, you could get burned. Vlad Jr. could pop a bunch of 30 home run seasons and figure it all out, but he's had a lot of chances to do it. So I think you could also talk yourself into a brighter future going a different

direction. What do you think about Lazaro Montes as maybe another guy a little further down prospect list who's tearing it up right now at single A that could be a massive riser just based on how his season has started at the lower levels. I mean, I love the production to date, great big old walk rates, great big old power and 60, 70 raw power on Fang graphs.

A little bit worried about the 20 to 30, 20, like a 30 future hit tool on him from Fangraphs. I prefer a little bit more hit tool. A guy that I think that may rise a lot in a similar way, but have a better hit tool is Xavier Isaac, uh, the first basement for the, um, Tampa Bay rays that, um, and I hate, I hate what they've done in the past with first baseman on their team. So I, maybe that factors into, to how excited you are, but you never know. Like maybe they just saw something in Nate Lowe and Kalmanzardo that they didn't like in terms of the way they hit.

Maybe they'll see something in Xavier Isaac they like. But even if he turns out to be a star for some other team, the thing that's cool about Isaac is that it's not just power. He's still stealing bases. And while he has 60-70 raw power, he has a 50 future hit tool from Fang Graphs. And I find hit tool something that's really hard to measure. We might have getting closer to it with bat tracking, but I'm going to hew close to a hit tool grade from a prospect grader that I believe in

as being one of the more important numbers that I use when evaluating prospects. Xavier Isaac, when the Rays made that pick, it was panned, I think, by a lot of the scouting draft analyst community. He hadn't played good teams, a real small sample. I think he'd been hurt or something. You know, and even the Fangrass write-up, which has given him a future 50 hit tool, says he's a power over hit for a space prospect. I don't know, like, so far the power's been there and the strikeout rates have been pretty decent. I mean, right now 25.9, but it's the first time he's been over 21. Super interesting.

I don't know if you saw the write-up that Eric Long and Hagen had, but he had some players like moving up in the prospect rankings, wrote up Isaac as part of it. And within that, compared to the Isaac pick to the Evan Carter selection by the Rangers, just think about how much more faith people have in Evan Carter now than they did back when he first entered the organization. So yeah, it's unusual because it was a high school kid who really had no defensive values. He's a first baseman, questions about how well he's going to run. It's strange to see a 20 speed grade on someone who's eight for eight as a base dealer this year at high A, but maybe there's just more there physically than people thought initially.

Definitely a guy that's got a lot of pressure on his back, but it's hard to bet against the raised track record of finding players who are going to be highly valued. I think you think about Manzardo as another example, though. I think the problems Kyle Manzardo is having adjusting early on are just the result of the difference between the big leagues and triple A. I think that's going to happen. We're going to keep seeing that for a lot of guys. So it really depends on how patient you can be. Isaac's at high A right now.

He's been there for 20 for what? 35 games. If you're not patient. Yeah, I'm not. I'm not always patient. Here's a good name for you. Marcel Meyer. Ah, okay. Double A doesn't have the kind of numbers where you look at and be like, oh, I need to get this guy. But actually, you know, if you kind of read between the lines, does everything well.

And he's in double A for a team that does need a shortstop. I don't actually think that Hamilton is the shortstop of the future there. And so I'm going to take Marcelo Meyer as being in the big leagues maybe sometime next year. I think, you know, I like the fact that there's speed, there's contact, there's power. And in the lower minors, he had more patience. I think there could be, you know, I think that could be the little switch that they're looking for is like, Oh, he's walking 10% of the time. He's striking out 22% of the time.

He's got a 200 ISO. He's running, he's playing shortstop effectively. And maybe even sort of like opening day next year, he's our starting shortstop. Yeah, good call. I think a guy that slipped a little bit in prospect rankings too, so easier to get. Maybe even possibly a secondary piece right now

who looks like he's putting it back together with some health at AA this year. prospect rankings too, so easier to get. Maybe even possibly a secondary piece right now, who looks like he's putting it back together with some health at AA this year. So a lot of angles to go. Thanks a lot for the prospect question, Kevin. You got a question for a future episode. You could send that our way through Discord. Emails also fine too.

Ratesandbarrelsatgmail.com is the best email address to use for that. As I mentioned up top, one o'clock Eastern on Thursday for the live stream this week, no show on Friday with the long holiday weekend just around the corner. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can find me at Derek VanRyper. Find the pod at Rates and Barrels.

If you don't have a subscription to the athletic, you can get one at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. That's going to do it for us. We're back with you on Thursday. Thanks for us. We're back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening.