Rates & Barrels - Playing Time Analysis With Mike Kurland

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

DVR and Al are joined by Mike Kurland of The Athletic and Gaining The Edge Fantasy to talk about playing time analysis. Mike reveals his process for analyzing lineups and batting orders, and the group sorts through some rest-of-season player toss-up dilemmas. Rundown 0:39 Mike talks about his process for analyzing playing time 4:47 How important is it to track pinch-hitting trends? 6:49 How does Mike use lineup analysis in order to give him an edge? 18:50 How does Mike handle making decisions in the absence of larger samples? 22:36 How far ahead in the schedule should we be looking? 27:05 Player toss-ups 39:18 Looking for stability in fluid roster situations Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB Follow Mike on Twitter: @Mike_Kurland e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Derek Van Ryper, Al Melk, you're here. You know, Saris' vacation continues. And we've got a special guest joining us today. It is Mike Kurland. You've seen Mike's work on The Athletic. You've probably seen him on his Patreon, Gaining the Edge. Listen to the Bases Loaded Pod or on Twitter at Mike underscore Kurland. Mike, how you doing? I'm fantastic. I appreciate the opportunity to come on here and hang out with you guys.

This seems like the best time of year to talk to you. I mean, there's always never a bad time to talk to you. This seems like the absolute sweet spot time of year to discuss things with you because you focus a lot on playing time, roles within batting orders and shares of playing time. And I think it's such a fun time of year to watch baseball, but such a miserably challenging time of year to analyze it and have meaningful takeaways. But playing time is one thing that I think you can watch on a micro level and you can react to it and not necessarily be hurting yourself in the long run with your fantasy team. So I think I wanted to talk to you about your process for what you're doing

as you're looking at every possible scenario around the league. Because it seems like you turn over every single stone across the league on a day-to-day basis. How do you do that from just a logistical perspective? How much time do you spend on that?

And what combination of tabs and screens and apps are you using to pull all this information together and then to pass it back along spent on that? And like, what, what combination of tabs and screens and apps are you using to pull all this information together and then to pass it back along in a more digestible format? Man, that's a loaded question because it seems to evolve every year. First off, it starts off in spring training where that's where I, you know, the coverage starts there. So I get a good little headstart and it gives me an idea of where things are headed. And a lot of times it does carry over to the early part of the year especially the first month a month and a half or so so

seeing that carry over is always nice a little bit confirmation bias but then we do we get thrown for a loop because teams don't show their full hand all the time in spring some teams show more than others but uh yeah so it's really it's a process of them i like to use personally uh not roster resource i like to use roster resource for other things, but baseball reference is my go-to for the lineups. I like the way they lay it out for me. They have a little toggle screen for lefties, righties. And obviously I mind the news in terms of like who's in, who's out, who's injured.

So who's getting playing time because of injury, who's due back, how can that affect? So all this stuff's kind of kept in the brain because of just how frequently I'm looking at it. But there's like, so I have what Roto world for news for news twitter for news i have a baseball reference for the lineups i look at last seven and last 14 in terms of uh days played for trends looking for hitters playing well because what i do what i think that helps us with giving us the last seven last 14 players that are playing well could run hot could get more playing time depending on team

match for instance like a matt veerling although we expect him to kind of platoon he's getting some run versus right he's not full run against righties and that could just be you know making these days off etc but if he's hitting well that could push that back and force their hand and maybe you see him start getting a few extra starts there so now suddenly that platoon turns into okay not quite fully platooning there's a little extra playing time there a little extra play appearances and it's kind of just a process of trying to catch it as it's happening or right Suddenly that platoon turns into, okay, not quite fully platooning. There's a little extra playing time there, a little extra play appearances. And it's kind of just a process of trying to catch it as it's happening or right before it happens. That way you can be ahead of the market.

But then you do this for every single team and every team has their quirks. You have teams that are way more platoon heavy, way more strict with their platoons versus other teams. Like the Rays are somewhat strict. And you'll see they're like, as soon as you think you haven't figured out, then they change things up. Giants are kind of the same way they kind of mix and match who they're platooning but they do stick to platoons with certain players and you just kind of have to learn that it's kind of as it goes and then of course this year baseball savant i've been trying to factor that in more so what i'm doing is taking yes i look at yesterday's recaps i kind of look at

just uh playing time who's getting pinch hit for i've been watching a lot of who's getting pitch hit for because you've got like blake sable who are losing playing time mid-game nick gordon the first three games of the season i think he only had two play appearances per game while being the starter so stuff like that it's just kind of more and more in depth as i go and i just add to it because as you're mentioning it's kind of the new day it's like the way relievers are with baseball or with baseball of course it's baseball with relieievers are with teams, just the way they're being utilized and match-dependent. You're seeing lineups kind of – and lineups aren't staying the same versus lefties. Players shift up, shift down.

So projection systems, that's hard for them to project playing time or play appearances. So you kind of – if you have an idea of how teams treat players and which players might move up or move down before the season even starts, you can kind of tweak the play appearances to kind of give you a more true projection not to mention the ball stuff it's a whole other discussion but yeah so it's a long-winded way of showing kind of where it goes but it really does change throughout with the pay on the team and all the other stuff well mike that analysis with pinch hitting is is i think really next level i've never heard of anybody looking into that and not you know not even realizing how much of an impact that has. Would I be right to assume that from your observations,

that's going to affect people more in the bottom three, maybe four spots in the lineup? And should we be giving maybe greater penalties to players that are hitting regularly in that part of the lineup? Yes and no. It's a loaded question because I don't think a lot of teams do it, but you are seeing more teams do it. No, for instance, I think the Giants did it just yesterday

with Lamont Wade, who's a leadoff hitter. So it really is team dependent. But I do agree. I have noticed it is mostly those guys on the bottom half of the lineup. It makes the most sense. Those guys are already fringed for this roster, in most rosters anyway, right? So Blake Sable was just the first one that came to mind

because it's been a lot of him. But think nick gordon was batting sixth which is a rather solid spot in a minnesota twins lineup i was leading off yesterday about sir kepler out but that's another thing you have to remember players shifting up and down can also be due to just days off or injury so you can't just react to a one-day sample size you need more a lot of the times or just understand like hey this happened now if it sticks when sky returns now there's something to it but it's unfortunate we don't really have time to do that reaction. But back to your original question, it usually is the bottom three. But yes, some teams like Garrett Mitchell, I think also pinch hit for,

was it Brousseau that let off yesterday or two days ago? So that's another, like if you see a guy who's on a clear split, like a Brousseau, like a Owen Miller, those guys, if they're hitting towards top of the lineup those guys are still more likely to get pinch hit for in the middle of games but the the reverse is also potentially there like bryce terang although he's played majority of the play appearances he's been pinch hitting against righties even when he's not starting against lefties a bryce terang type can still lose the occasional play appearance for two to

an owen miller to a brusso late in games even though his splits weren't necessarily bad in the minors, they have been treating him as a platoon partner. So it just really is specific. But more times than not, the guy on the strong side of the platoon is gaining play appearances even when he's not starting. The way things have been looking early on anyway. Curious if you think this kind of deep dive look at playing time is one of the best ways right now to actually get an edge in leagues. Because if you think about how people draft, many people use the same sets of projections, whether that's the stuff you see on fan graphs like the bat or ATC or zips. I know some people make their own, and those projections are great too. Some people make their own, and those projections are great too.

But generally, what you were kind of pointing to is that the playing time is not nearly as accurate as the slash line. The projection systems are good at projecting skills. They've done that very well. And I've come to the point where I don't really want to make my own projections because I don't think I can make better projections than Derek Hardy does. Yeah. I just don't think I'm going to beat him at that. than Derek Hardy does. Yeah. And I just don't think I'm going to beat him at that.

But I do think I can, I can go through a depth chart and think about how the pieces fit and read the news and try to interpret that news and get maybe the last possible edge by being more accurate at assessing playing time

than everybody else. I know injury risk also throws a wrench in all this, but do you think this is truly like one of the, one of the forefronts of having an edge in season-long fantasy baseball now that so many high-quality projection systems

and draft tools are out there and freely and readily available? I mean, maybe I'm a little biased, but of course I'm going to say yes, I do see this as an edge, but it's one of those things where everything is so readily available, including me covering this over at the athletic shameless plug there. Right. But no, the idea here is the way I try to utilize it is I take the projection systems

and I kind of just plug in my own playing time projections. I did the math on like which teams and it's another thing, which teams get more play periods per lineup spot. That's also a thing. So if you can kind of take those numbers and kind of realize, okay, well, this team's getting like an extra 0.3 at bats from the four hitter. This guy's batting fourth here. Now I can kind of rearrange the play appearances, get like an actual number.

I'm going to give them a random obscure 600 play appearances. I try to be more accurate in the preseason. I take my play appearance projections and I just plug them into it because, you know, there's models that they create these days that you can just plug them into sgp sgp sheets and it'll spit out numbers to you so now you're getting kind of a mix of my own projected playing time based on my you know how a team treats a player maybe I project them for an extra x amount of play appearances because I think it's gonna lead off even though projection system might see that etc but now I'm still getting the best part of the projection system from you know what they like you, like you mentioned, they project skills very well. So I take the two,

combine them. And I do think that gives me a little bit of an edge, but the players are so good these days in season moves are so are, are really what's going to end up being the difference maker for a lot of people. And some of the best players are, are monitoring this stuff as well. So it's a matter of just,

it's, it's hard to do it on the micro level. I'm doing it. But the point is, is I, but the purpose of it is to try to give me that edge, but also provide the edge to people who are following my content so it's it's a but yeah it's a uh it's a lot it's a bittersweet for sure because i do enjoy having a feel for the

pulse on so many things but i'm afraid it's one of those is this one of those really being really good at a lot of things but the master of none so to speak so i really try to hone in on lineups but so far it's paying early dividends in leagues but what seven days in one bad game from three people can put me in the bottom three of any league so yeah that's the fun thing about this time right the other day i watched in one league go from i think 14th to seven seventh because of you know a couple players that had big games that's not going to happen in a few weeks, but, um, you know, I want to allude to something Mike that you were just talking about, which is your process that you're always,

you've always got your finger on the pulse of what's going on. And that, I feel like that's, it's a hard thing to talk about or kind of give actionable advice based on, but it's like when we have discussions and forums like this one about, uh, you know, what does it take to get an edge of the league? And we talk about, you know, analytics or,

you know, keeping up with the news, but just that like always being plugged in process and kind of building that library in your mind. I just feel like that's invaluable. And so, you know, I don't,

I don't know that there's much more to act add to that or i would assume you agree since that's your process but i do think it's really good to always have it it's always good to have an idea but here's the thing now you like one of the weakness i'll say there is a weakness to it um i start placing value on players that might not necessarily have it like a taylor wall is not that he like he's not the best for fantasy but he's playing a good amount for the raise do i value those play appearances i've taught myself not to but when you look at it and see playing time you know maybe in an only league that's where you get your benefit like oh look he's getting played appearances regardless of matchup but you know he's not and he's not every day but he's like a two out of three day type of guy so that's where

it can kind of drive you in the wrong direction if you're not careful so that's where i would recommend if you get into like diving deep like this, be mindful that not all play appearances are created equal in terms of the talent behind them. So just because you're finding this little edge in playing time doesn't mean it's always going to give you the, it's not always an edge in the right direction, unfortunately. Yeah.

Yeah. It's go ahead, Al. No, I was just going to say, I went back and looked at your, your column from, I think it must've got up on Monday. Cause it was basically like what, you know, what have we learned from the first weekend of the season? And how already since then, what, three, four days later, there's things that have changed. So, yeah, how much stock do you put in somebody who's now just getting a first opportunity, like a Joey Weimer?

a first opportunity like a Joey Weimer? Is it the sort of thing where you kind of look ahead the next four days and that outlook might be really different or is it easier to tell with some players than others that there's some long-term value there? I think that goes back to what we, I feel like what we've always thought about that type of thing usually holds true. For instance, like with a Joey, it's Weimer, right?

I always call it Weimer, it's Weimer. I apologize. But yeah, with a Joey Weimer we were for instance they weren't going to call him up not to sit him or just to sit him so that's one of those things where you can see that and be like all right he's coming up he's gonna play and he has played pretty much every day he wasn't he's not platooning so that's one of those where you can kind of project forward a little bit looking at him but then you get those fringe guys like uh what uh jason vosler randomly decided to break out and it's because i think injury opened up playing time for him but so it's like if he was one of those guys that got called up as a filler he's not a guy that i'm gonna go ahead and uh necessarily

want to plug in treat yourself to tim's new fudge brownie lattes made with freshly ground espresso beans frothy steamed or ice chilled milk, and topped with marbled chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, so you can change the music.

Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? change the music oh yeah alexa change station to 99.2 see purchase a 2024 escape st line all-wheel drive with tech pack at 3.49 apr for 72 months with down payment that's just 267 bi-weekly cash value of 40 294 plus eligible ford owners get a thousand dollar bonus for details visit your local ford store or ford.ca yeah so I think one of the really challenging parts of this, context is really key when it comes to playing time. Taylor Walls is a great defender. Because he's a great defender and he can play a bunch of spots,

he gets played appearances, and you're exactly right. In a mono league, that's great. That's a hidden value sort of player. In a mixed league, until he does more with the bad or starts to steal more bases, unfortunately, he's just not going to provide much. I think the hard thing is taking a guy like Weimer, and in the past, the one that burned me the most, I think, in the last few years was Nate Lowe. When the Rays were first bringing up Nate Lowe a few years ago,

they were hitting him in the cleanup spot. And I took that as something that was really important. I was like, they're hitting him cleanup. They brought him up to play him and they're putting him in a prominent spot in their lineup. This is the moment. This is the moment that he's passing. I think at the time it might have been G-Man Choi. Yanni Diaz, I think, was already there. It's like, oh, this is it. Nate Lowe is the new cleanup hitter in Tampa Bay. He's a priority player.

I advise people to go pick him up. I put in some big bids myself. Ten days go by. Someone gets back from the IL, probably Choi, and they option Nate Lowe down. I'm like, wait a minute. Didn't putting him in the cleanup spot give me some kind of real indication that they believed in him and trusted him in a very prominent role? I mean, how much does it just vary from team to team too, as far as the context goes?

I think you're 100% right on someone like Weimer. I think where I probably underestimated it was if they really wanted to just be safe and play the veterans they would have brought abraham toro back from triple a and let brian anderson stay in the outfield and just mess around with with matchups and we'd see toro and luke voight and the veterans playing more than weimer but because they brought the young guy up he was going to play until he gave them a reason not to play and so far he's doing great with the bat and he's playing good defense and i think like defense does get kind of lost in the conversation a lot of times it's something that's it's important in fantasy even though we don't directly reward it in fantasy outside of

playing time yeah defense was something another thing i've actually made a point to be more mindful of because this spring without thinking about it like right before spring started i started kind of put out like just random tweets kind of like, hey, you know, what if Paredes still is going to platoon? And then I threw out a name because he played there last year. I think it was Aranda. And I'm like, well, then I'm like, I got bombarded with people. Yeah, his gloves terrible. Like, you know what?

You're right. I can't just throw names out there anymore. So that's something I've actually made a point to encompass, like make sure I was like, OK, let me stay on top of defense because defense matters in this type of, you know, the leagues we're talking about here obviously are deep formats as well because uh you're looking for any type of edge it goes back to playing time and defense will carry playing time that's why you see Michael A. Taylor playing so much not that they have any other options for center field but they could have put Joey Gallo there we've seen Gallo play

center you're seeing guys like um I've you mentioned who you mentioned oh uh Jackie Bradley Jr. is also getting run because the Royals valued off-field defense so stuff like that you're seeing this happen and it's defense matters for fantasy so if you're wondering why your favorite player like edward olivares isn't playing every day apparently he's bad in the field and that's going to matter to a team like that to the royals apparently they care about off-field defense according to people i've talked to that are fans of the team i can't speak to every team uh in terms of how they are i usually reach out to people i know follow the team. I can't speak to every team in terms of how they are. I usually reach out to people I know who follow the team more to see what their team usually

does. Obviously, that's the thing. As granular as I try to get, there's always someone who's going to know more about a specific team just based on how much they follow them. I expect DVR to know a lot more about the Brewers than me in terms of coaching concepts and all that stuff. It's fair. I spend way too

much time thinking about it. So I hope I know something. But even with Weimer, though, I'm just like, I think because here's what I got spooked by on him. Here's why I don't have him everywhere, even though I'm a Brewers fan. I thought the swing and miss we saw in the upper levels of the minor leagues were going to make it really difficult for him to adjust quickly to big league pitching. So I thought we'd see a lot of swing and miss. We'd see him end up maybe more on the small side of the platoon in the next couple of weeks and then possibly get sent back down, even though the Urias absence is eight weeks.

It's a long window. So there was enough of a ceiling there where it probably made sense to be a little more aggressive than I was, or at least more aggressive than I was suggesting other people be because I don't have him anywhere. There are good tools, and I think he's the perfect example of just like, are you betting on tools or are you betting against flaws?

Because I was actually betting against flaws in this case because I saw enough moving parts in the roster where I saw too much playing time downside. I think he was viable in mixed leagues. We'll see if I'm right. I look very wrong about a week into it, but things change very quickly. I think that's the other thing people have to realize

is the lineups this week could look very different than the lineups next week. And it could be due to things that are out of any one player's individual performance and control. Yeah, Joey Weimer is a great example of that. But that's the thing. That's where my brain went with. I thought initially they might not even call him up.

I'm like, they just sent them down. I know calling one of him or Freelick up made sense, but I thought the same thing. I'm like, they could just put Owen Miller at third base. They can keep Anderson in right if they really want to play this manipulation game. But the fact that they didn't was what sold me on it. But I was the same way.

I wasn't as aggressive because although we saw, you know, Weimer take that step forward in AAA last year in the plate discipline, it was the fact that he had a 30% strikeout rate in AA. So it's like, are we, and it was, and and it's been it was like three straight stops of it kind of creeping up so the sudden success at triple a for it to just click randomly as he got higher in the levels really was like i don't know if i buy into that as much and but like you mentioned early return has been that's carrying over but we're talking such a small sample size you can't

necessarily believe that to be the case MLB pitch pitchers are going to adapt and he's going to have to adapt as well. But all things considered, I, like I said, the, what sold me was the fact that they had other options already on the roster and, but they called him up anyway. I didn't think they were calling him up for depth. That was, I saw, I had that part, right. But I was still not thinking he was going to come up and, you know, be this successful or so quickly. So I was wrong there. So when you were talking about your process a little while ago, Mike, and you alluded to looking at last seven day, last 14 day. Well, we're now a weekend. So you've got that seven day trend at your disposal. But at what point do you start to feel a little bit more comfortable, particularly with the part of your analysis that does involve looking at the stats? And before you

get to that point, how do you deal with that? I think this time of the year, the most important thing is to not overreact. Playing time time is i'm monitoring mostly right now is like strictly playing time and even lineups i'm kind of just watching them settle because we have so many things we have guys having and you have to remember we're in a day and age where days off are also happening even from day one so how like how much of that is affecting things but like there are certain things that you could take away for instance like isaac parade is was a name i mentioned before against lefties he's bat. However, he started against only one of three righties. I can't say for certain he's in a platoon based on that. However, now I'm wondering how much playing time

is going to be there against righties. So I'm starting to make little notes, more so than definite things, but you also can't just wait to react. Luke Raley is getting everyday playing time against righties, so maybe he becomes a very intriguing deep league sleeper if he has the righties face like five out of seven righties in a week or something so you have to react in that aspect and you also have to react in terms of who's playing and how often but in terms of

actual like stats other than just looking at pitchers for their pitch mixes uh velo and obviously if hitters i'm just kind of seeing if people who are playing i'm not really worried about veterans it's the young guys like a bryce terrain you start looking into him a little more and you're like because i really like terrain i have a lot of him i was getting on him just because how cheap he was with the skill set he had but you're seeing that skill set kind of carry over high contact guy a little pop speed good defense like that's the type of guy it's like all right well there's gonna be run there he's gonna get the strong side opportunity he already has one so that maybe you can gain more against lefties but that's the type of thing I'm reacting to,

the guys who have opportunity, who are taking advantage of it early. But meanwhile, I'm not overreacting to it. I'm not going crazy and fab for these guys. I will try to bid what I think is a fair amount for them. At the same time, though, guys like Rowdy off to a slow start, guys like, I don't know, other slow starters here that you actually believed in, I'm not dropping them or overreacting. And those guys are not even moving in lineups. They're still batting where they're supposed to be batting and

you got to give those guys more patience so really at the end of the day i'm really just focused on uh how teams are treating treating these fringe guys and guys that were platooning in the past and possibly starting to platoon here and kind of trying to react in that manner more than anything else yeah it seems like so much with role and lineup placement depends on how much of a track record you have, and that's what makes us even more difficult. You want a statistically meaningful sample to understand if a player is good or not, and sometimes we're not

given that luxury, or we have to decide before the sample becomes meaningful. Are we picking this guy up? Are we playing this guy? So what it is, is the second there's a hint of playing time favoring a player, say like a David Hensley, then I'll try to get ahead of the market and grab him cheap. Because I'm like, all right, well, they're playing him like three out of four or three out of five.

Maybe there's a chance he gets more. If I have room for him, I'll stash a guy like that. But Hensley's obviously rostered in a lot of leagues. So we could talk about Yanner Diaz, who could gain catch eligibility. So a guy like that. But his playing time hasn't been great. So he's obviously not in the discussion, but just one of those types of teams

where there's a path to playing time, who's getting kind of that look. Maybe there's like a mix of guys and one guy standing out a little bit. That's where I maybe try to take advantage of it and look at it as like a stash opportunity. But in terms of overreacting to small samples, I've gotten way better.

I refuse to do it. And honestly, I'm afraid if I, maybe I'll miss this year because like usually I'm a little more aggressive, but I'm like, I've been burned one too many times being overly aggressive early. Well, I know you've already talked about so many different things that you're taking into account. Like I said, stuffing this all in your mental library.

But in doing my research for the waiver column, I'm looking at the schedule. I try to look maybe a couple of weeks ahead, column, I'm looking at the schedule. I try to, you know, look maybe a couple of weeks ahead, especially when I'm looking at pitchers. One thing I noticed in researching for the column this week is the Red Sox are going to face a whole lot of lefties in the next week. So I'm thinking Tristan Casas probably going to sit a lot. And I mean that there's, you know, not a lot to, to expand on there.

Cause obviously if that's a borderline decision, you're going to have to sit them. But how far ahead do you look at schedule in terms of making your decisions or in terms of what you recommend for other people? I think maybe when there was a more unbalanced schedule, you could say, oh, in this division, there's more lefty pitchers or whatever. That's maybe not as much of a factor now. So maybe it kind of behooves us to do even more homework and, you know, look two, three, four weeks ahead. Is that something you think that would, would pay off?

So I, with, with pitchers, I look upwards of a month. If I like a pitcher, I'm like, okay, I find him intriguing. Let me go look at a schedule. I look, try, I try to, you know, look a month ahead, get four starts, a two start in there and see like, okay, am I starting this guy or not like pitchers? That's kind of, and I think most people are on that page now. It's like looking ahead beyond the one week or the two start in there and see like okay am i starting this guy or not like pitchers that's kind of and i think most people on that page now it's like looking ahead beyond the one week or the two start streamers you have to get ahead of the market because everyone knows those names everyone knows the guys it's starting to come it's becoming more normal that people know

the weak guys two weeks out that's where it's like it's frustrating but you know we already had what like four or five rain outs today so it's getting really difficult to sit here and plan ahead for pitchers because of rain outs anyway so you're, now you're getting a little too ahead of yourself sometimes, but it's good to have an idea of a guy way guy lines up anyway with hitters. I try to keep it to about two weeks at most just because teams, especially depending on the team and depending on how they're treating that player currently, that's where it gets.

Again, it really is dependent. It always goes back to depending on the team and team context. Cause some teams are a little more easy to call out. Other teams are not. But yeah, I'd say about two weeks out. But even a week out, you're fine. If you can get ahead of it.

Like if you look like today is what? Thursday, Wednesday, Thursday, Thursday. I'm losing track of it. If you look at so right now, you can go on. Well, you can go on fan graphs, go to their probables, and you can see through next Saturday. So you can kind of plan out. So you can obviously assume Sunday.

You can look that up another way, other options as well. but you can just assume Sunday, you know, they're going to match up. You just have to figure out which picture, right? Whatever. You can kind of just get yourself ahead of the game in terms of just knowing how to plan your week ahead, especially if you're in NFPC formats where it's twice weekly, you can kind of be like, all right, cool. So they're playing two out of three lefties insert team. Here's playing two out of three lefties and whatever. So you're like, well, I got to sit this guy who doesn't play against lefties and maybe you can it goes back to that luke raley conversation like you know he's available in majority of leagues if they're facing three out of four righties and you're in need of some pop and you're looking for some upside and you're not

then you look ahead all right cool he has really good matchups this week you look ahead to the next week that's it's almost like i trim like a pitcher i look at each player individually players i'm intrigued by by an early start and then I try to project their potential matchups for up to two weeks just because it goes back to pitchers, you know, getting back from injury, pitchers getting injured, just different things happen. But if I could try to see like, okay, cool, so the next two weeks they have 12 games

and he's facing 10 righties, that becomes a lot more interesting and palatable. And that's where it becomes more useful because in these deeper formats, you need that edge of playing time whereas in shallow formats you don't really have to think that deep into it but it could still help you in terms of just live decisions so it's always good to know who's playing how many matchups x amount of days a week etc it's and i try to do this for every team it's it's a uh you can hear i love it i really do enjoy it and it makes me a better player to do it,

which is what makes me happy about doing it. But yeah, by the end of the day, I'm like, that was a rough one. Time to do it again tomorrow. In a lot of ways, this sounds similar. I started playing a little more DFS probably 2019, I want to say. So I wasn't first wave DFS.

I've never had a big bankroll for it. I didn't have a lot of time for it to sit down and crunch lineups for two or three hours at a time before lock. It just, it didn't fit my schedule at all. But as I played more DFS, I did feel like my ability to understand playing time patterns around the league got better because you're hyper-focused to lineup position and who's in and who's out and who actually does leave early and how rested relievers are, all these other things. So even if you don't play in an actual daily moves league, playing DFS even a couple times a week is another way to sort of force you

to do some of this sort of dirty work that actually helps you a lot from a season-long perspective. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze, and it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night kids. Good night mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at best western i want to throw some toss-ups at you mike just some fast start players and who you think is going to be better from this point forward so we're going to start with a couple of outfielders uh we got jose siri and j Altman, two guys that were pretty trendy, I think, as late darts in deeper mixed leagues, both off to good starts so far.

So if you're choosing today for the rest of the season, who do you prefer between Siri and Altman? I'm going to take Siri. A lot of that is the fact that there's a power and speed skill set that people like. I know I thought of Siri. I thought of him more of a speed guy. I mean, he had like what, 10 some bases in the spring. But there is pop there. I mean, he's just it's a matter of getting. I thought of him more of a speed guy. I mean, he had like, what, 10s on base in the spring. But there is pop there. I mean, it's a matter of getting the ball in the air more.

However, Siri has a – Siri has the – you see the max exit velocity is hitting around 110, 111. He's able to get it up there. That power is not questionable. It's there. The speed is there. He's going to – and he doesn't really platoon. He's one of the few Rays bats that aren't platooning because he plays good enough defense to stay in that lineup, which is, again, it goes back to the raise obviously value

some defense because they aren't platooning siri when they're platooning everyone else around them so i'm going to go siri because again obviously outman has the power but outman also has the platoon concerns some swing and missing that profile coming into the year as well as siri but siri has that speed aspect that kind of is a differentiator between them and a little more path to playing time yeah i think i'm with you on that too i think the rays because of the way they value his defense especially that's gonna keep him closer to that max playing time share i don't know if it's impossible for outman it just seems less likely based on the makeup of that roster that seems like a spot they are mixing and matching a bit more with right now it might take an injury or

two for outman to really get a look against same-handed pitching. Let me throw another one out there. We'll throw this one to you too, Al. Let's start with you, Al. Jiwon Bae versus Jorge Mateo for the rest of this season. I'll give the edge to Bae just because I think long-term, just the playing time is going to be there more. The Orioles still have players to promote.

And Bay is relatively new to the Pirates roster, and I don't really see any roadblocks there at all. And I think they're both players that, if you got them 300 plate appearances, they'd still be really helpful for stolen bases. But I think Bay's got that better opportunity to rack up a higher total mike how about you sorry al i just have to respectfully disagree i feel bad

what makes the show interesting no it's just it's one of those things where i just i don't trust the i mean as much as mateo has a tougher path in terms of holding on to that spot maybe but that if that glove is anything as good as it was last year, I have a hard time seeing them sitting him, even for the other options they have coming up. Honestly, obviously could trade Mateo because Mateo considering he's probably going to be more useful to a contending team that maybe the Orioles are contenders,

but who knows? I do know there's plenty of warts in the game here for Mateo, but I think there's some hidden pop there. And, but we know some bases they're already already there he's running as at will and I think that it's kind of like the double you know versus double you don't kind of thing and Bay is intriguing but the Pirates are also just a weird team like if Bay struggles they'll put Castro in there they'll put they went out they'll they'll call up one of the random guys that can play I think I think uh Smith and Jigbook could play

second base even I feel like we've seen them there if not they have i think marcano but i can't say his first name but marcano the miners they have they still work with ios i think they they added him or like they traded for him or something like that in the in spring and they had him taking second base run so it's it's not that they'd lack op they lack good options i'm aware of that but but it's also the pirates that like i feel like we just see them, like, they'll throw whatever at the wall and see what sticks, you know? That's what scares me about them as much as Mateo has better actual options looming in the minors and then Henderson can always move over, et cetera.

I just think that that glove, as long as that glove is good, especially with the shift changes, I kind of try to factor that in as well. These shift changes take away or add the need for a strong shortstop to be able cover a lot more area have a lot more range and be a lot better same thing with second base which is why like i watched the braves game the other day or that rc is gonna get plenty like the fact that i saw how good he was at defense like with my own eyes not just by the numbers it made total sense why he broke broke uh broke season with the team you know just made sense like how good of defender you have he is that's huge for with these new shift rules. So I think that defense will matter in these in these aspects. I think with tails glove, again, being as good as it was last year is gonna

be a difference maker. And why I think he's gonna play just just plenty enough and be a little more useful than Bay. I do think Bay is intriguing, though. I actually do like Bay. So I'm not saying I disagree with you. Because you're wrong. I just disagree because I'm right. Okay. Okay, no, it's a it's a it's a good conversation. I just I try not saying I disagree with you because you're wrong. I just disagree because I'm right. No, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. No, it's a good conversation. I think I just trust the track record there with the tail a little more too. Here's a different kind of question.

Luke Raley versus Nolan Gorman. You're looking for some power. Maybe it's a 10 or a 12-team league where those guys are actually available. I think Gorman got snapped up in most of the 12-team leagues that I saw over the weekend. But both can mash. Both probably don't play much or at all against lefties in the near future. So who do you choose between Rayleigh and Gorman, especially given that Gorman had that prospect pedigree this time last year, people were a lot more excited about him. I'm still gonna go Gorman just because of the, uh, again, the pedigrees there. He's, what is he? he's only 22 years

old he's turning 23 in like a month and a half or not like a month um i don't i understand the strikeouts are still close to 30 but he's walking 23 and a half or 23.8 of the time we're talking 21 play appearances though the strikeouts are going to be an issue for anybody thinking they weren't because of a hot week that was a mistake but i do think he's going to have the strong side playing time playing time for now at DH. He's on the better team. I guess it's not quite necessarily the better team, but I feel like I trust the Cardinals to be an offensive juggernaut

more of the season than the Rays. I think the Rays can more so up and down depending on hot streaks and stuff. But all things considered, I do trust the playing time there because the Rays are more likely to turn to somebody else if Raley is not working out. Then I don't think the Cardinals have as many options. They do have Juan Ypez and Alec Burleson. So it's not like they lack options.

I just think the Rays always have more and are always more willing to tinker than the Cardinals are. Yeah, Raley is just a classic Rays pickup, though. Guy's going to find it. It's going to be chunky playing time, but it's going to be 18 or 20 bombs in like 350 plate appearances. So if you can kind of

walk the line perfectly and have him in your lineup when he's actually playing and not take a lot of zeros or pinch hit games, then you might actually be pretty happy with him. I'm with you on Gorman.

Is it a sweep for Gorman, Al? Yeah, clean sweep. And for all the reasons that Mike gave. Yeah, age is key here. I think with Nolan Gorman, five of six starts so far. The only game he didn't start was the only one in which the Cardinals faced a left-handed starter for his career. He's been up for 334 plate appearances now in the big leagues,

going back to last season, 16 homers. Nolan Gorman's got a 237-317-445 line for a rookie. That is not bad. That's not failure. That is acceptable for a player breaking in for the first time. In fact, that's actually better than a league average hitter during that time because the league slash line has been so bad. So if you want like your pie in the sky, who could Nolan Garman become?

I actually think his profile as a hitter reminds me a lot of Austin Riley, where you'd see Austin Riley going through the minors, showing pop, move up a level. K-Rate would go through the roof. He'd spend time there. He'd get better. I realize they hit from different sides, but I still think Nolan Gorman's ceiling is very high from a pure fantasy perspective, even if it doesn't all come together for him this year. I would also take him over Luke Raley. How about this one? Two guys that are just finding playing time somewhat

unexpectedly, one more of a surprise than the other. Jason Vosler versus David Villar. This is definitely like 15 teams and deeper. We'll start with you on this one, Al. I want it to be Vosler, but I've got to go Vill VR. But I love that fit of Vossler in Cincinnati in terms of the type of hitter that he is. You know, fly ball hitter could just take advantage of that park. And we've seen that already in a few days. So I'd like to see him get more of an opportunity. I was actually reading something earlier today that the Reds are going to try him out at various positions. So I'd be excited to see that.

But I think VR is a pretty good bet for playing time for the Giants, even though last year I got very used to the idea that the Giants had very few true regulars. But at least from what we've seen early on, it looks like VR's playing time is fairly safe. Yeah, four starts in a row for VR as we enter play here on Thursday. Mike, for VR as we enter play here on Thursday. Mike, which side of this one are you on? I'm with Al this time. We agree. It comes down to

the path of playing time because you have Votto returning. You have Stevenson who's supposed to factor into DH and first base at times too so they can keep his batting lineup. And you have Myers also in the picture. It's as simple as it's kind of a crowded situation and Vossler becomes that odd man out. The thing is we all root for Vossler because we've

seen him be... The Giants was a couple years back where he just had that special run. I just remember him being very useful. I kind of root for the guy ever since. I'm rooting for him, but yeah, I think it comes down to just giving me the playing time in VR. Let's go one on the pitching side for the rest

of this season. This one's tough. Jeffrey Springs or Jesus Lizardo. Who do you think actually puts together the better season here on out? I'm going to go with my guy here. I like them both. I'm just such a Jesus Lizardo guy. I have them in my main event. I have them in majority of my leagues. And it's beyond Marlon's fandom.

What stole my heart was seeing his velocity back up in spring because we know how good Lozardo was last year when healthy. And not only did we see the velo up, I think it's even up a little bit from last year, or it's close to what he was. At least it might be right around where he was before the injury last year. That's the concern with Lozardo is the injury. I know springs looked amazing um i can honestly see both these guys easily producing a path to positive roi that's

not the question here i do think los ardos could edge them out the only thing that might hold los ardos back are the wins because fantasy wins matter the marlins aren't gonna win a lot of games but i just i'm so impressed by what he's showing and the fact that he's carrying it over from last year i give me 150 innings of both and they're both gonna be great pitchers but I'm taking Lizardo just because I think there's a little bit longer track record of success well maybe not I guess Springs had his success last year but Lizardo also comes with that pedigree and my bias so because I have washers I think there are more people that want to see Lizardo become an ace because they've expected it for so long.

So I think most people given this choice are going to probably lean toward Lizardo. They're very close in value. I think that's why I wanted to throw it out there because it's tough. It's like, do you want the high ceiling guy that could be a true number one, or do you want the overachiever who seems to have been tweaking his way to become much better than people expected, like a number three starter with lots of strikeouts. That's probably what Lizardo actually is right now,

and Springs is at that level right now too. Which side of this one are you on, Al? I'll go ahead and take Springs. It's almost impossible. I like them both. I've got them both in teams. But I do view Lizardo as a little bit more risky, and I like the fact that Springs has this very consistent record of getting chases out of zone.

I worry about walks with Lizardo. Um, and yet Springs is, you know, no slouch getting, getting swings and misses. Um, he's really has been very consistently good at avoiding contact on end zone pitches, which is a stat that I love. So, I mean, if you're going to force me to kind of find a tiebreaker, I'll give it to Springs. All right. Reluctantly, I am on the Lizardo side.

I'm worried about the injuries, like Mike said. I do think the team context, the Marlins aren't going to score runs. It's just not going to happen. Run support is going to be at a premium for the Marlins pitching staff all season. Not a surprise. I think we all knew that going in, but something about springs. Even though the numbers all point to this being sustainable, I'm like, no, man, do it again. Do it again for a whole season. I need 20 more starts of this before I can believe, which is terrible because by then, value completely changes. Let's get to some fluid situations here before we go.

And the back of the Atlanta rotation because of injuries, a little bit of a revolving door right now, Mike. Is there anyone that you'd like to stand out from that pack, whether it's Bryce Elder, Dylan Dodd, or someone else? Do you see one of those guys emerging to be a more viable option throughout the year as they almost certainly will deal with a share of injuries given that Freed's hurt right now. Charlie Morton is pretty old.

They've just got that depth question kind of hanging around the very last spot in their rotation, at least until Mike Soroka is healthy enough to pitch again for them. Yeah, that's why I'm like, like Schuster always was like the flashy pick, but obviously we saw what happened there. He's going to get another shot though. I think Dodd just might have the most intrigue because i think they obviously i think they looked

his way before elder so obviously the braves show us their hand a little bit there in terms of having preference and dodd had okay first outing wasn't like terror it wasn't bad it just wasn't special we're talking barely any strikeouts all things considered but uh god got the win out of it but obviously overperformed a little bit all things considered though i think i'm just gonna roll with dodd because the braves as long as he keeps up performing schuster i think he's gonna have a he'll have the first shot at it and then uh the braves obviously believe in them giving the fact that they gave him a shot over elder ian anderson and of course if schuster struggles then i feel like dodds is the clear next guy up so i guess dodd but i'm not again I'm not really excited about all of them.

It's just, they're all streaming options, I guess, at this point. Schuster could still be a thing though. Don't just give up because of one bad start. I just, oh, it was just such a bad start. You know, we've talked about the Rays a lot. It makes sense in a show that's focused on lineups. There's changes frequently. And to me, they're, they're sort of like what the Giants were last year,

or I guess maybe what the Rays were last year, that there's, you know, at the top, you've got four hitters who seem really secure in their playing time and their rotation spots. The rest of it, to me, just seems like just a free-for-all. So is there, you know, we've talked about really, we've talked a little bit about Paredes, Siri. Is there anybody out of the rest of that roster

that you think could become a true regular? Well, Josh Lowe's already showing to get the strong side of a platoon. So I don't know if you want to. It's just hard to call anybody a true regular on this roster. I look at the best case scenario as a strong side platoon for this team. But Paredes has the best shot just because the defense. His defense isn't even bad. So for them to prefer walls is really weird to me.

I don't know if that's going to sustain. So I think Paredes obviously becomes, and he's already being rostered like one. So is Josh Lowe. I think our best bet might be a call up and Curtis Meade come mid season. If he gets that call, Meade would probably, if he gets that call up,

he's one of the top prospects. He would be the guy that would get a regular spot. But in terms of overall regular playing time in the back half of that lineup, I don't see anybody other than Siri getting any run full-time role without an injury or underperformance. If you look at what they've done for the first six games, Wander and Randy Rosarena each have started all six games. And you've got Yandy Diaz and Jose Siri have started

five. Everybody else, four or less. So even someone like Brandon Lau, who I think is a really good platoon sort of player, he has that limitation right now, just based on them being healthy. As injuries maybe shake things up, perhaps you could see some of those playing time opportunities tick up for a couple of those really good secondary members of that Rays lineup. What do you think of the White Sox situation without Eloy Jimenez? There's actually be some value there. We're going to have a waiver episode coming up tomorrow, so I'm sure we'll get into some more detail on it then.

But does that seem like a good place to possibly speculate in these next couple of weeks while Eloy is on the aisle? So this would be a good time to go look ahead at matchups because Gavin Sheets looks to be in line for a strong side platoon for the two weeks. And we all know sheets when he runs hot can hit with, with some serious power and can be a real difference maker there. So that would be the target. It looks like here.

That's what, that's how they, that's how they've showed their hand for early on. Anyway, he got the first start to, I think burger is in line up against the lefty, which again makes sense considering that. But yeah,

I'm good. I think that would be the name to look for. And even then, just you got to look at that schedule. I haven't had a chance to get to that part of my analysis yet, so I can't offer any help there. All right. Well, I'm going to go back to the well with the Giants because I brought them up a few times.

And like I said, they seem to be more stable, but I also don't want to take what's happening in the first week of the season too seriously. What do you see ahead for them? Do you think, you know, somebody like David VR, I mean, you said you trusted the playing time reasonably with him, but I mean, do you see any, do you see anybody there maybe who is not as good of a bet for playing time as it would appear right now? Well, the reason why there hasn't been a lot of fluctuation is because they haven't faced a single lefty I don't think this year. So it's been all righties. And because of that, you've seen a lot of consistent playing time, including today is another righty.

So J.D. Davis gets himself. That's just one of those things where it's like I don't really I think what we're seeing is those are like the guys that are playing against righties are the guys we're going to see most of. So what you're seeing is what you should expect to get most days. Guys most likely to be hurt by the platoon though blake sable because he's one of those guys that goes back to what we said at the beginning of the show that he's just a guy that gets pinch hit for middle games they uh i don't know how he is as a catcher and have to see some of the metrics i think he had a few past balls his last start he is starting kitchen today but they did sign gary sanchez so i don't and that's not that gary sanchez is a defensive wizard but he at least has experience and they know what

they're getting into. David Villar, the reason why I feel safe is because he's playing against all these righties. So if someone's playing against all these righties as a right-handed hitter, I expect his spot to be rather safe. Flores and I mentioned Davis, those guys are more on the weak side of platoons right now. So although they are getting starts, it's for guys getting days off and whatnot. Hanager, when he returns, will probably be one of the more regular guys guys as well and that will throw things into a loop you i think you'll see yaz and i don't know if it's gonna be weighed i know peterson they platoon peterson a lot last

year so i think peterson and yaz would become two more two more two of the more likely guys to fall into uh strong side platoons once hannagers are back and there's more of a rotation there but yeah this lineup lineup is just a mess always. I think Mitch Hanager's return probably hurts Blake Sable the most. But the way they run that roster, it will hurt one or two other players a little bit on the margins as well. I think Hanager's going to get the same treatment from the Giants that Orozarena and Wander get from the Rays as far as playing time. These teams that platoon as much as the Giants and Rays, they have a small core of guys that have to play every day

because you can't platoon every spot. Hanager very safely in that high-volume opportunity. So if you're in a shallow league where he's been dropped to eight, ten-team leagues that are out there, actually I think Mitch Hanager is a pretty good pickup right now where possible. I know it's not possible in a lot of the leagues that many of us actually play in, but hey, to each their own. I had one more thought before we were going to go, and I absolutely lost hold of it.

Oh, it was the schedule. The Giants' schedule changes a ton next week. They've got four lefties because they see the Dodgers and Tigers. So four lefties in six games, and the White Sox, all righties throughout next week as it's currently projected. So six games, six righties, So probably a lot of Gavin sheets, at least a good weekly pickup for those matchups. I think as we look ahead, Mike,

before we sign off, let our listeners again, know what you're up to each and every week, where they can find your work. Well, the best place to find everything I'm doing is that on Twitter. Cause I just post everything there, but it's at Mike underscore at Mike underscore Curland.

It's almost like I've never said it before. I do a lot. I've been trying to do two to three live streams on the YouTube channel. So it goes back to the gaining the edge brand at youtube.com slash at GT fantasy. You'll find, I do two to three live streams a week that goes on the podcast feed as well. So basically the podcast,

also the Patreon where I'm doing, I do the lineup stuff coverage for the athletic once every three weeks right now, but I do two to three, sometimes four write-ups a week on just this type of content, uh, um, exclusively over there. So that's patreon.com slash GTE fantasy. So GTE, the athletic, and that's pretty much, that's all my work, all my works, those two spots, but obviously Twitter, you can find me there. And I tweet a whole bunch of this stuff out as well as a kind of like, Hey, you know, I'm not, it's not all behind a paywall, I promise.

And also, if you just want to have access to it, it's the easiest place to find it all. Totally makes sense. We all got bills, so no one should begrudge you for the paywall. You know how that goes. Come on. Yep, I got bills, so I totally understand.

Mike, we appreciate your time and your insight today. Thanks for joining us. Oh, it's a pleasure. It's really honestly awesome time and your insight today. Thanks for joining us. It's a pleasure. It's really honestly awesome to be on this podcast. This is one of those podcasts that's like, I've been just waiting for a chance to get on, so I'm glad you guys gave me the opportunity. I'm very thankful. Happy to have you. You can find Al on Twitter at almilkyrbb. You can find me

at Derek Van Rynpert. If you want to get a subscription to The Athletic because you don't have one yet, it's a dollar a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Friday.