Rates & Barrels - Pleasant Surprises & Making Better Decisions in September

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss Reynaldo López and Ronel Blanco as two of this season's pleasant pitching surprises and wonder what's next for the duo, as well as other relievers who might be able to follow López's path to the rotation in 2025. Plus, they discuss endgame strategy for lineup decisions in rotisserie leagues, a potential sleeper in the Oakland outfield for next season, and a few weekend waiver-wire targets, including a pair of old starters chewing up innings effectively for the Guardians. Rundown 5:02 Reynaldo López: Top-20 Starter (So Far) in 2024! 12:00 A Few Success Stories Moving from the Bullpen to Rotation 15:34 Endgame Lineup Decisions in Rotisserie Leagues 20:49 Another Way the Royals Have Helped Their Run Prevention Cause 29:00 Differences in Major and Minor League Baseballs 34:18 Why Eno Prefers Jackson Jobe to Kumar Rocker 37:11 Another Outfielder Tracking Toward a 2025 Opportunity 44:52 Weekend Waiver Wire Preview Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Friday, September 6th and Derek the Ripper, Eno Saris here with you. On this episode we discuss at least one quiet hero of this 2024 fantasy baseball season so far, Ronaldo Lopez had a great start against the Rockies. We'll dig into what he's accomplished this year and maybe try to figure out what is next for him as a starter as he continues down this path in his career. We're talking about a mailbag question around endgame lineup decisions and dig into why some of that is so difficult because you're chasing multiple categories and you got different players on your team

that might be stronger in that area or weaker in that area, but they might be the better player with the better schedule. So we'll talk about how we try and problem solve those situations. I've got some other mailbag questions, including one, a follow-up to something you said last week, wondering why you prefer Jackson Job by as wide of a margin to Kumar Rocker, as you suggested.

Also gonna get to our weekend waiver wire preview as well. How's it going for you on this Friday, you know? I'm doing well. I'm going to the A's game tonight. Actually, it's really kind of melancholy in Oakland, of course. So I've spent a lot of time sort of morosely looking onto the field being like, wow.

Wednesday when I was there, I was, I had the stop, I was like, it's kind of weird to be at a place that you've gone to repeatedly for 14 years and know you may never go back to that place. Right. But then it may actually get just completely like bulldozed at some point too. I was like, well, the ballers play here. Like I was like, would I come back for a ballers game? Like, I was just like, you know, like,

it's just, it's kind of weird. It's like, it has some things in common, like when you graduate school and you're like, am I gonna be back? You know, like. Yeah, I guess like for high school, I've never, I don't think I've gone back for anything. College, I've lived in the same town

for most of the last 20 years that I went to college in. So I'm on and off the area around campus all the time. Me too. I'm right by my campus. So that part, so I only know it from graduating high school. I had that exact thought. I remember we did this thing called project graduation where everybody hangs out the night of graduation. The idea I think is to keep everyone from getting drunk and getting in trouble. So you hang out in the school and just spend time with your friends. And they let you out of the building at six o'clock in the morning

or something to go home and get some sleep. I remember walking out of there going. Like a lock-in or whatever. Yeah, it's kind of like a lock-in. And they do a bunch of fun stuff. They had like an illusionist and a bunch of stuff for us to do. It was fun.

So I walk into my car and I'm thinking like, how many of these people am I gonna see again? And I started kind of like counting through. I'm like, I got like a really close group of friends. I gonna see again? I was starting to kind of like count through I'm like I got like really close group of friends I'll see most of them later this summer and probably for the next 50 summers and forever, right? But then I was like, I don't know if I'm ever coming back into this building ever again And I feel great about that just was ready. I was ready to be done with it. This one's missing that last bit. Yeah

It's like, geez. Because you also establish relationships with, you know, security guards and PR people and radio people. And like, yeah, they'll come and play the Giants. So, you know, I'll probably see them. But it's not the same thing. You know, it's, it's, you know, it's a lot of that. It's that same energy except the last little bit is melancholy instead of like I'm going into the world I'm moving on to bigger and better things No, just losing a part of my life Yeah, well, that's that's a bummer

But yeah, still a few more weeks left if you haven't been to the Coliseum you can get a chance to catch a game There's still a handful of series left. They close out the final week of the season with the first part of the week. They finished the year on the road this year. So if you're planning some kind of impromptu trip, just know you can't go on the last weekend of the season to see the A's play in Oakland. I would avoid the last series if you can. So I'm taking my children to say goodbye this weekend. So we're going tomorrow

and that'll be the last game they go to because the last game is already sold out completely. And I think that last series will be a cluster F. So it could get a little hairy. I guess I'm going to cover it because you know, I got to be there but I'm not taking the kids and doing the whole thing. The vibes will be very different I think in the very last series just for all of the reasons. By the way if you'd like to join our discord you could do that with the link in the show description. I saw someone asking in the live hive yesterday how to do that that's where the link is every time no matter where you watch or listen to the show. Let's get going with the No matter where you watch or listen to the show, let's get going with the unsung quiet heroes of 2024. I thought about this coming off of an 11 strikeout performance against the Rockies.

He didn't get the win, but Ronaldo Lopez has been fantastic. You know, he is now 17th in the fan graphs. Player Raider among pictures, one spot behind Corbin Burns, just the way we all drew it up. And even when we think back to the later part of draft season, we had a handful of starters who had been in the bullpen last year, Jordan Hicks, AJ Puck, who was great during spring training, Lopez was in this group, we were kind of wondering,

what is it gonna look like from a workload perspective? And I think my most optimistic expectation for Lopez, who I did get on a couple of teams this year, was he's been a starter before. So you don't have to worry about a hard stop for innings quite the same way you might for Hicks or even Puck who just had gone a long time without getting to that workload.

And also because of age, I felt like there was this chance that Atlanta would just say, let's just let it happen. Let's just see what he brings to the table. There was also this idea that maybe just getting away from the White Sox and just getting into a new organization was going to help. So as I started to dig into Ronaldo Lopez for 2024 just to see what's different in his arsenal for me it just looks like the increased use of his curveball. Having two breaking balls that hitters have to think about seems like it's

unlocked a lot for him because he was really a heavy four seam slider guy previously with the occasional third or fourth offering but even just getting that curveball usage up to the low double digit range that seems like it's changed quite a bit for his fortunes as a member of a rotation. Yeah. And you know, it's interesting. We, we, when we looked at all relievers, uh, making the conversion, we found the number was around five points of stuff. Plus, I'm wondering if we need to redo that because a, the sample wasn't a lot. And B, you know, you have somebody like Lopez, like Lopez dropping 30 points of stuff plus.

And yet it has really worked for him because it's a full three pitch mix. And I think also because he's showing, you know, the second best command of his career is judged by location plus and a decent walk rate. You know, those aren't things that were true of him the first time he was a Starter I think command sort of turfed him a little bit the first time this time the command hasn't been a problem and He's maybe retained a good amount of velocity 95-7 still which is decent for a starter I would say there is a fair amount of luck involved in what he's doing right now You look at his left on base percentage right now,

in particular, it's 87%. That average for him has been 73%, 73.6, and that's an average that he accrued as a starter. And starters generally have higher left on, lower left on base percentages. If you look at the career leaders, they're all relievers. So the career leaders for left on base percentage are Clayton Kershaw at 79, Jacob deGrom at 79,

Brandon Woodruff at 78. And so if you are a top starter, you can expect to live maybe in the high 70s but 87% is far beyond that. So I would expect some regression there next year. I might expect a little bit of regression in the walk rate next year and I'm wondering if he'll be a little overdrafted next year honestly because if you say that his walk rate is a little bit tenuous and the strand rate is going to change and he's got the same Sierra now as he did relieving last year,

Ronaldo Lopez, 375. If you're saying, you know, he's going to be a 375, you know, ERA pitcher next year, I think he's going to be drafted better than that. I could see people being too aggressive, but I could also see some hive mind creeping in where the concerns you just outlined, which are all very real, completely wash over the things that are working. And I think that could, it might depend on the leagues you're in.

There might be public leagues, Yahoo ESPN leagues, where Lopez, because of what he did this year, is overdrafted. But then in industry leagues, the consensus view might be, ah, it was a lot of luck. And I do think you're right to call out the strand rate in particular. Like that is one area where you say,

okay, how is he outperforming expectations in ERA by this much? That's a big part of it. If you're getting lucky with runners on base in those situations especially, that could take a run probably off the ERA. Even if he was at a three instead of a 204 right now he'd still be having a great year and I was blown away too looking at the playerator that he's only got eight wins on a really good Atlanta team and he's pitched

well enough to have more than that so he'd be higher in that playerator with even normal wins luck so maybe some of what he'll give back in ratios in terms of value in 2025, he'll have to be able to offset by getting just a few more wins on the ledger. Just by simply being on a good team or a team that performs even higher at a higher level than expected compared to what it did this year.

I guess they're not letting him go super deep into games. That's been part of the way they've limited his innings. He has averaged five and a third per start. Great bullpen too. So it fits the model of how the team's built too. But maybe that might change in year two. I mean, because they'd be like, well now you have more innings.

So, you know, maybe we'll let you go deeper into games. Yeah. I mean, I guess, look at this. Like he said, three starts all season where he's failed to complete five innings. So 20 out of 23 starts, he's been eligible for a win. That's about as good as anybody you're gonna find. Like most guys are that good. I guess maybe done in just by some poor luck, injury luck

on the batting side for the Braves. Yep, yeah. So I'm into it because I've got them a few places. I wanna see what the price is. If you're feeling drafted like an SP five or an SP six, totally. A little more into like, you know, trying to find the next one. Yeah, of course. A little worried that this, you know, I sometimes things like this, like big innings jumps and stuff, you know, come calling the next year, you know.

Sometimes they come in the same year. Jordan Hicks, you know, arm fatigue, shoulder fatigue, whatever it is, he's sort of fallen off after a good beginning. But I definitely, after this year, am more open. I know it didn't work out for everybody, but we had success stories in crochet, Ronaldo Lopez, and I call Jordan Hicks a success story

because you got value out of him for half the season and then you probably just dropped him, you know, like in most leagues, it's fine. You didn't get a lot of the worst stuff. It just depends on how long you were using him when it wasn't working. If you absorbed all the damage that he started to accrue after getting surplus value, then yeah.

But you could have watched his V-Lo and sort of seen a lot of that coming. There were warning signs and you brought them up. You were flagging that on the show. So hopefully people were able to sidestep some of that and get the best parts of the season. The ones that didn't work. AJ Puck?

Puck, yeah. Puck was a no-go. Crochet is like a success story to the point of it makes you wonder if the A's would try it with Mason Miller. That's what it made me think of last time we talked to my guy is Griffin Jacks. So what's interesting is if Lopez so Lopez went down like 20 points, if that's the amount that stuff of stuff plus that that Jacks would lose, he can still do it. He's got one thirty four right now.

You know, so if he if he dropped twenty five points, he'd still be, that'd be good stuff plus for a starter. The location plus for Jax has been through the roof for three straight years. And now he has like a legit four pitch mix. I think he's got five pitch mix really. So I think Grit Jax could be a starter. The other one I had is Pearson. If you want to get ahead of things, Pearson has been pitching in multiple innings and he hasn't really shown the split finger, but supposedly he has a split finger. If he does,

that's a chance for five pitches himself. The command is more of a question, but Lopez, his command was a question and he's been great. Those are my two names that I think I've got a circle for next year as possible starter conversions. Here's the other question I have for you with Lopez. For 2025, if we're drafting today, we're assuming a reasonable price. We'll say the pick 150, 175 range. Would you rather have to roster Ronaldo Lopez

or Renel Blanco? Because I think some of the questions we have about Lopez also exist for Ronaldo Blanco because I think some of the questions we have about Lopez also exist for Ronel Blanco and I think there's even fewer seasons of Star Trek. Blanco is a conversion. Yeah, he's made mid-seven starts, 17 appearances last year so this was first year as a full starter. Big innings increase, right?

52 at the big league level last year, 148 and a third so far this year. He actually threw 73 and a third at AAA last year though so it's not that much of a leap I'm taking Lopez for a few boring reasons I mean his Sierra is a half run better than Blanco's his strikeout rate is better those aren't boring reasons there's still reasons yeah why don't you punch a wall? Because it hurts? That's a good reason. It's a boring reason, but it's a good reason.

So it's good enough. I think they're going to be handled somewhat similarly though because of the track record control concerns. I would agree. I think Lopez's skills are a little bit more tidy at this point of their respective careers. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt.

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Let's move on to a mailbag question we received from the Moro brothers. We saw them out at First Pitch Arizona last year. Hopefully we'll meet a bunch of you this year at first pitch Arizona. I believe today, September 6th, is another registration date cutoff as far as a discount goes.

So you wanna jump in and do that over at baseballhq.com if you haven't registered for the conference already. The Moro brothers are in a very close race for first place in their NFBC league. And they're in a common situation right now, trying to make up a small amount of ground in homers and steals. And we're gonna broaden their question

to kind of cover just general rotisserie leagues. How do you make your micro lineup decisions when you're chasing multiple categories? Their example is they've got Matt Wallner, Joe Adele, and Parker Meadows, and they're trying to use a combination, I think, of two of them in their lineup, doing the best they can in power and speed. So, like, what factors are you looking at in this instance?

How deep into the weeds are you going, trying to decide, like, which of those players is the better play? I mean, I think that trio for us, I think we both look at Wallner and say, he's the best player of the three, so Wallner probably gets a spot, and then you're choosing.

There's also a boring reason behind that. He's left-handed. He's left-handed, yeah. So as boring as that is, I'm gonna start with the left-hander that is hitting the snot out of the ball. And then, you know, that means that Parker Meadows Parker Meadows is probably in second place on this list

because again, left-handed, not hitting the snot out of the ball like Wallner, but hitting the ball a lot better since he came back and a dual threat for homers and stolen bases. In fact, just you know aside the Grand Slam last night off of Robert Suarez aside, I think he really is reopening our eyes to being like okay this is a legitimate prospect for next year and any improvements he can make in contact rate and and power are gonna take him out of that 230 territory

into something that could be way exciting next year. Somebody that could hit 250, 2020, 25, 25 even, and kind of emerge as a kind of a sleeper for us next year. He's doing it also in a time when people are not paying as much attention, they're starting to pay attention at football lineups So Meadows is one of those guys I could sneak under the radar have a great September And be someone you should have circled next year and and also maybe not enter the hype machine as hard as others. So

Because his projections are still pretty yeah, you know like 225 300 OBP League average power, you know, that's not gonna 300 OBP, league average power. You know, that's not gonna get a lot of people's attention as is. So anyway, I would focus on the left-handed thing first, because that's gonna affect playing time, and playing time is king. To hit a home run or steal a stolen bass, you have to be in the lineup. Again, a boring, dumb thing to say, but it is true. But the one wrinkle I would put on it, because there are

going to be days when you're like, hmm, you know, in this next four games, Parker Meadows sees, you know, a lefty and Walner sees a lefty and, you know, Joe Adele, who he mentioned, you know, sees, you know, two or three lefties and he's the righty and you're like, well, this could be one of those times. Why do I do now? I think in those situations one thing I would do is look at the pitchers they're facing and try to have some idea of if they're facing somebody that gives up a lot of stolen bases because the pitcher is the one that gives them up mostly I believe. Corbin Burns has allowed 38 stolen bases this year and is atop the leaderboard.

Mitch Keller, 25. That can be a little bit hard because it's just one guy. You're like, am I gonna put Joe Adele on the schedule because he's gonna face Corbin Burns and might get a stolen base? You know, that's not super, super exciting, but you can start to see some duos. Mackenzie Gore and Patrick Gorman are both left-handers,

but they're fourth and fifth in Stolen Bases Aloud. Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodone are in the top 25, both of them. Jason Adam, Matt Waldron on the Padres are in the top 15. So you've got top 25. So you've got little pairings, Palante and Gray. Or if you wanna be a little bit more blunt, you can go over to the team side.

You do team stone bases allowed. The Giants, 138. Bailey's been hurt, so I don't know if that's relevant here. The staff has been a lot of different people too. I really kind of believe in this Cardinals one. I said Palante and Gray. Cardinals have allowed 133 stolen bases. They've

got Wilson Contreras who's aging behind the plate. You know, I could see that being a real number there that I might target. The Washington Nationals sixth with 118. We know Gordon Corbin on that list. So you can kind of do something there. It looks like you used part of this, but it looks like you didn't use part of this but it looks like you should not target the Royals if you want to start in stolen base. They have allowed 50 stolen bases! The Giants have allowed 138! The gap between the Royals and the Tigers is 33 steals. Yeah that's that and that's the Tigers are the second worst. Yeah right and the gap between the Tigers and a team that's 30 away from them would put them in the top 10.

That's how good the Royals have been at controlling the running game, which I think probably deserves some kind of deep dive of its own at some point. But yeah, I mean, run suppression is part of how they're getting there and not giving away free bases in a league where it's easier to just take them. That kind of matters. Cole Regan's allowed eight. He's lefty. He's good.

Seth Lugo's a righty, but five. I guess he has that kind of a slide-steppy thing, right? Wow. Just nobody there is allowed more than double digits. Yeah. But your top five for picking on teams, giants, cardinals, pirates, Rangers, Marlins all have allowed 120 or more steals. Not far behind, you got the Nats, the Astros, the White Sox, Atlanta and the Reds.

So plenty of teams you can run on right now. But just if you're kind of finding those tiebreaker matchup things, that's probably what you're looking for once you get past the lefty, righty, righty, lefty, how much playing time is there, how many games are on the schedule. It is looking more at factors like this. On the power side, maybe you're just double checking the park factors, making sure that if schedules are equal

and matchups are similar, you're just putting the guy in who's got the better environment to hit a home run, or you look at the team and it yields more as a group maybe the team with the the weaker bullpen it's almost it's like that time of year where you have to start thinking more like you're building a DFS lineup then then you do for most the season because you're not playing the long game anymore you're kind of playing the micro game just trying to get every possible inch I've got the schedule you know if you go over to teams on

fan graphs, there's a schedule tab and you can just see, you know, all the pictures they're facing. I've got that, I've had that open for about a month now or it's I've been a lot more involved in that situation. So I would also say generally that I think that stolen bases are more chaotic. I mean, if you just, you heard me reading through, you know, and you've got these like duos, but like, you know, okay, you can say that the giants give up a ton of stolen basses, but you know, Hayden Birdsong doesn't, you know,

Blake Snell's not as bad as Logan Webb. And then there's a three person series, right? You're only gonna see three starters in a series. So you might just hit all the ones that don't give up stolen bases. So if you just, if you kind of, it's harder to brute force looking for stolen bases than it is for home runs, I think. Home runs, you can be like, oh, they're in Cincinnati. You know? Like, but for stolen bases, even though Cincinnati is in the top 10 for allowed, what if you just got the three starters that were good at it, you know, and they have a rotation where you don't even know what the Cincinnati rotation is.

It's easier to say, you know what, I don't know what the Cincinnati rotation is, but it's probably not gonna be that good. So because they're all hurt. So I'm going to put my guy in for homers than it is to say that whoever's coming up is definitely gonna give up stolen bases. You know what I mean? Yeah, here's a trivia question for you. Hopefully you don't have this tab open right now.

I'm sure you have this tab open. Hopefully it's not in front of you. I'm not gonna look at it. Which five teams have allowed the most homers this year? Who's in the top five? Okay, I am gonna go with Parks and then I know that the Reds had good pitching at the beginning of the season,? I am gonna go with Parks and then I know that the Reds had good pitching at the beginning of the season but I'm gonna put

the Reds on there. Their ninth strike one. Dang I'm just gonna put the Rockies on I know it's not like it doesn't inflate them but it's a bad bad stat. Number two that's your first one 185. I'm gonna take another stab. Nope. I'm not gonna do that. I don't think I'm gonna do that Angels angels are 10th strike two. No They've been good but it's a park that you can hit homers in Nationals, no, the Nationals are 26th. Ah, I was gonna say Yankees. I'm strike three. I'm out Who's up there? The Blue J's are number one at 190 J's 191 the Rockies are second you got them at 185 the Rays are at 181 The White Sox, I mean they oh I should have said White Sox one. It's a park and the staff. That's bad

Here's the other surprise the Dodgers 175 the Dodger well, I think that's more park, but also they've been running through arms Yeah, push the park has been surprisingly Homer friendly over the last few years Flipside of this one at the bottom Atlanta has only allowed 130 Kansas City at 132 So good at suppressing homers and steals as a staff so far this year That was like a whole thing online that was I just did not want to take part in I mean the weird thing about Kansas City, which we've talked about before is that like inflates offense generally but it deflates homers. The boring reason is I think there's

area there's space. The wall is further away so it's hard to hit a home run which means there's space for the ball to land that's not a home run that's in play. It's sort of what True and Coors feel too. They made the outfield big, yeah. This is how it works. A lot of boring explanations, simple explanations to things today. But this one included like Eric Hosmer making fun of somebody online,

and you know, I just was like, I don't, for so many reasons, I don't wanna be involved. Oh, he's still doing that, okay. Yeah, he's still. Has. OK. Yeah, yeah. Hasn't grown up out of that yet. Still a dick. Cool. Oh, one little thing on park factors real quick. I heard that Seattle is considering changing the Batters Eye,

which will be of a certain amount of expense and of indeterminate value. So that'll be interesting to see what happens coming out of that. If it does happen, how much do you think you'll change your projections or thoughts of Mariners hitters? Well, if the same people who are building the lineup right now are building the lineup this winter, maybe only a little, because it should help.

I mean, it predates the DePoto-Hollander front-off. It's not just their fault. But to some degree, shouldn't they have had a plan that would have worked? I think it's still a bit of an open question. How good are they at evaluating hitters, and how much has that been obscured by the park? And the person I was talking to was like, yeah, batter's eyes are different everywhere. He was like, you know, what about the fake rocks in Anaheim? Is anybody complaining about the batter's eye there?

Yeah, there's other factors and we've seen it. We've talked about it several times where the park boost strikeouts helps the pitchers it hurts the hitters okay. And if it is the salt content in the air and it actually isn't that much about the batter's eye you're not going to desalinate the air. So you know one cautious step towards expecting more from Mariners hitters but really aiming more at the top into the pool guys like Julio and and not necessarily chasing the mid-round late-round guys the way I have been in the past and getting burned by not learning my own lesson I guess is the simple answer there. Thanks a lot for that question Mark. Got one more here

from Joe this one came in via email. Joe wanted to know about the differences between the Major League ball and the minor league ball and Joe's son actually was a bad boy in Binghamton. So what happens is when major league pitchers are on rehab, they use a major league ball and when minor league pitchers are pitching, they use a minor league ball and seeing the two baseball side by side, feeling them, you can tell there's a pretty significant difference. The lace patterns. side, feeling them, you can tell there's a pretty significant difference. The lace patterns, the Joe didn't have a scale to weigh the balls.

But in this case, like we know they don't use the same ball in the minors. They do in the majors. What are the current differences and in what ways do you think that could actually create different problems? Because using different balls obviously will lead to some sort of different results. I did confirm with a major league pitching coach that the balls are different. The balls are the same in AAA. Same at AAA.

Okay. And then different at the different levels. The reasoning I think is just that the other ones are made cheaper and there's a bunch of levels of minor leagues and they just want to save some money making balls for all those other levels of minor leagues and they just want to save some money making balls for all those other levels of minor leagues. The upshot is that the major league ball, I think that the seams are a little bit lower. It's a little bit kind of tighter. And like I've talked to pitchers that talked about like the first time that they, you know, played with a major league ball and they like brought the ball up, like it just like they just lost it, like went straight like when that pitcher like taking it back in the arm you know

they just went straight up instead of you know keeping it so um yeah it's a little bit harder to hold on to it does have ramifications for pitch movement and something that i have not yet studied with the limited sample of single-a guys that we have and may be relevant to another mailbag question we have later with about Jackson Jobe because we have high A data for him But generally if the seams are lower, they're gonna move less. Yeah, I guess it would mean That that would be a downward force on like stuff plus for example, because if you had higher seams,

you could get more movement out of it. That increases drag and increases movement. So it's something to think about. It's not something that's gonna be easily answered unless we have a lot of both balls. Maybe somebody like Barton Smith who's studied seam-shifted wake, would be somebody I could ask about this

and learn a little bit more. But it's definitely a thing. It's just another reason why AAA is kind of a fun thing for us, is that we get that data and we get data on with a Major League ball. And then the reason why they do it with the Major Leaguers on rehab

is just those Major Leaguers wanna practice what the materials they going to use later. Yeah, I wish we could get to the point where we could just manufacture the same ball at a cost the league was willing to pay and just let every player use the same ball for the consistency. Just why, why have to go through that process? I mean, literally having a ball slip out of your hands because the seams are lower like that, seems suboptimal especially when you're trying to command things and not hit people with them like all all important things but if you're getting this i guess it's an interesting thing to think about bobby miller where the command of the minor league levels looks fine it looked fine you know even last year but you know

maybe i don't know another thing that sort of popped in my head is i i'd hate i never want to like cost human beings jobs But like it seems like at some point we might be able to automate this I mean we can do a lot of crazy things now that we couldn't do before You want to ask AI to do something maybe automate this this process Because I as much as I love human beings, you know, a lot of this is about that labor cost and also just the cost of the Difference ball-to-ball and batch to batch is sort of a human thing.

Yeah, but I've seen AI try to generate images of human hands and it can't. So if you think it's going to make a round consistent baseball that's fit for use, I think you have overestimated AI's current ability. Maybe the future ability will be there, but yeah, it's a good question and more to unpack. I mean, I think if we had AA stuff numbers and AAA stuff numbers side by side, same season. We could kind of study it a little bit easier.

You'd see some shifts. You'd say, oh, stuff numbers dip a little bit. Other factors you could really granually drill down into and understand how those things are different. And I wonder how much of it is you just make an adjustment and you kind of get the same stuff back eventually, and how much of it is you can't actually replicate what you were doing completely.

There's probably some stuff that is easier to correct and adjust for than others. Got a good question here from Sierra Six, who listened to the episode last week and is wondering why you prefer Jackson Job a lot more than Kumar Rocker at this point. It's an easy one and it's the bias that I've been talking about,

the bias I've been sort of self-inspecting for a while and trying to figure out if it's a good bias or not, which is a bias towards good foreseam fastball shape. You know, Kumar and Jackson Joe both throw hard. Kumar's fastball is not sort of, it's not a ride ball, you know, and I don't know, you know, if that is a good bias, especially because after sticky stuff enforcement, what we found is less ride across baseball, fewer of those like kind of elite ride balls, and a real emphasis across baseball on unique baseball, on unique pitch shapes. But even in that case, Kumar's fastball gave me a little bit of the Rhett Lauder feeling

of, you know, somebody that should throw a sinker. I got a little bit of that vibe from Kumar Rockers fastball. And maybe he'll eventually throw the sinker and the four seam would be really good. I got a little bit of that vibe from Kumar Rockers fastball and maybe he'll eventually throw the sink around the fore seam would be really good and his numbers are eye-popping In terms of injury, I think they're evenish. I mean Kumar had the TJ. He seems healthier now Jackson Job has kind of had trouble like staying healthy hasn't put up a bunch of innings But hasn't had that big surgery right just recently. I think I'd give Jax and Job the slightly better health grade. Not having Tommy John is preferable to having it. So slightly better health grade, slightly longer track record of minor league

dominance, and then a better fastball shape. I think when you add when you add that all up, it becomes a little bit more, it's not like, it's not like he's way better at everything. It's just like, a little bit better here, a little bit better here, a little bit better here, all together, I'm preferring pretty easily. Yeah, and the injuries for Joe, these last couple of seasons, last year, lumbar spine inflammation, I think,

is what they officially called it. Not a major thing, hamstring this year, so, you know, it was a- It reminds me of like, you know, Tatis had this one injury when he was coming up that they said was actually just Will happen with like someone who's like still growing but a professional athlete like really young professional athletes that reminds me of like what Jackson jobs going through like he's 22 and He throws the ball super super hard

like he's 22 and he throws the ball super, super hard. So his body is still trying to like figure out how to like do that in a healthy manner. Thanks for the question. Sierra six. You've got future questions for us. Drop those in the discord or send us an email rates and barrels at gmail.com. We've got a follow up on a segment. We started a few weeks ago. We were looking for some players tracking towards 2025 jobs and we got to like one outfielder. I think we had Yankeel Fernandez from the Rockies organization. And I was digging around trying to find at least one, maybe two more names of players

that are not heavily heavily rostered and keeper in dynasty leagues, but have a chance to start early in 2025 if not even on opening day. And I landed on a name that you brought up I think for a prospect of the week segment a while back. Colby Thomas in the A's organization just continues to move through the system. Colby Thomas has split this season between AA and AAA. The weird thing here is that the strikeout rate has gone through the roof again.

We saw a high strikeout rate at high A last season, 29.5%. At AA this year, that number went down to 18%, and now at AAA, it's back up to 30.2%. What do you make of Thomas and thinking about the way the A's are built right now, having a few breakouts this year, but still probably having a soft enough depth chart in the outfield, where someone like Thomas should be able to break through with an opportunity in early 2025,

as long as that swing and miss problem we're seeing at AAA again is more the function of ABS and less the function of major holes that can be exploited. I got a little bit of Seth Brown vibes where, you know, I mean, I know he's a righty and Seth Brown is a lefty, but may have a slightly high strikeout rate. You know, maybe he can put together a good walk rate with it as long as he hits the ball hard. He has hit the ball 110, which I like. I think he's younger than Seth Brown.

So, you know, I'm assuming he's, and he's still in bases, I'm assuming he's a little bit better in the field. You know, Seth Brown is already sort of moving towards first base and is currently kind of a first base slash outfielder, but I guess just playing first base for them. I don't love Daz Cameron that much. And I think he profiles maybe as a backup center fielder. So there is a completely open outfield spot. If you think it's Bleday and Butler out there, there's pretty much an outfield spot that they will probably have an open competition for in spring training.

Yeah, I'm feeling old. Das Cameron's 27 already? Jeez, he looks like he's just breaking in. He does some things nicely, but he's never, you know, 67 WRC-plus for his career and 397 plate appearances. I don't want to write him off, but, you know, and the max EV and the barrel rate are actually OK, but the strikeout rate's not good. I don't get great write him off, but you know and the max EV and the barrel rate are actually okay But the strikeout rates not good. I don't get great vibes off of these numbers So but anyway, you know

He'll be in the mix Seth Brown will be in the mix for out there because I do think Tala Stoestrom is gonna come back and take the first base job Tristan Grey has played everywhere and I don't know if his bat is good enough to play in the outfield But you know, he might be on the list. But you know, I'm listing all these names and Zach Seth Brown is going to be 33 next year. Colby Thomas is the name I would like out of that group. Yeah, I think as draft and hold season approaches and keeper and dynasty league decisions kind of

come up and you want to stash them when I think Thomas sort of stands out to me is One where the skills the opportunity it all might be aligned just perfectly and he's he's not you know It's not like Emmanuel Rodriguez. He's not like Roman Anthony where he's universally rostered and keeper in dynasty leagues either He's actually available in some of those formats to what's interesting too about the A's You know, you've got Brent Rooker having this ridiculous season, a 170 WRC plus, he might end up with 40 homers, he's got 35 already. He might go 40-10 this season, which is just, it's just absurd that Brent Rooker is going to put that together. Lawrence Butler's breakout looks very real, the strikeout rate's way down since he returned, he's down at 22.8% for the season, so you know, between Rooker, Butler, J.J.

Bladay has had that kind of skills consolidation year. It's amazing. I think the currency in Oakland is this. They give longer chances to their guys. You think about the ups and downs that Bleday has done over the last two years. And then you think about in San Francisco, how they treated Elliot Ramos and Luis Matos. Luis Matos came up and blew the doors off the big leagues for

like a month. And then he was in the minor leagues two weeks later. You know, I think what they do in Oakland is they give guys who haven't had chances longer chances, not just two, three weeks, you know, it's more like two months. And, you know, lo and behold, I think they have a center fielder in Bleday. They have a right fielder in Butler. They have a second baseman. I think Gelof is gonna get through this. He's showing signs already.

Jacob Wilson may not have the power, but he's gonna make a lot of contact. And I think he's better than the Nick Allen, you know, Max Schumann group that has come before him. So they have a short stop. They have a catcher that's really good. I think Soderstrom is gonna be, you know, Max Schumann group that has come before him. So they have a short stop. They have a catcher that's really good. I think Soderstrom is going to be, you know, kind of a league average for a Spaceman. So what do they need?

They need somebody to step forward in left field and they need, they need an ace. They need somebody to step forward in that rotation. Maybe they don't. Maybe they can just get along with, you know, five number threes or whatever. But that's the one thing I don't see from them. I think they do need to take a step forward on pitching development. And you know, the Osvaldo Bido story is pretty good, but you know, they need more successes like that.

Yeah, I think if you look at a lot of prospect list for the A's, the first six, seven guys you're going to see in that organization that are on those rankings, they're all position players. So that's where the gap is right now It's it's finding good pitchers and developing good pitchers and the park has always helped with that But I think one thing that's gonna be different playing in San Francisco playing in Sacramento Instead of Oakland is going to change a lot about the hey We can throw these sort of mid these like mid back end starters

We could throw them because the park is cool and damp and pitcher friendly. Sacramento's not going to play like that. I mean people have said that the park factor for Sacramento is is surprisingly like medium. It must be maybe a big outfield or something because it's going to be 100 degrees at game time in the evening. Like it's going to there are are gonna be days like that. It's gonna be different than Oakland, to say the least. So I think that's gonna change some things with pitching as well.

And then I think the other tricky part of being the A's is now you've created this scenario where you don't have your permanent home yet. So are you going to attract even second tier free agents? Probably not. It's gonna be a place people generally don't wanna go. It's gonna be more of a this is my only offer or maybe it's close to where I grew up sort of destination

and that's about it. I wonder if it would actually make sense for them to trade a bat for an arm. I think that's the way they're gonna have to do it is actually acquiring the pitchers that they need via trade as opposed to developing them. At least as they're built right now. Maybe a few things could change,

but that's the lag in the organization right now. Let's move on to our weekend waiver preview. Tommy Pham playing more again in Kansas City, getting out of St. Louis. Tommy Pham's always on the move. Is it seven teams in the last two years, three years? Let's see if we can name them. Mets, Diamondbacks, White Sox.

Is he on the Reds? If you go back a third year, I think so. But I think it was Mets and Diamondbacks last year. And then White Sox, Cardinals, Royals this year. So five teams in two years. And then, yep, if you go back to 2022, Reds and Red Sox. Reds and Red Sox.

So seven teams in the last three seasons for Tommy Pham. Is he still viable in shallow leagues once the playing time kind of nudges back up? I mean, I think he's started every game since getting on that roster in Kansas City. So my assumption is it's probably just good enough to make the cut in five outfielder leagues if you're just looking for somebody who's playing a lot.

Who's losing their time? So they're, okay, so they're playing Felix for me just as catcher. And Sal Perez is catcher first base with Gurriel behind him. M. Jim Melendez is still starting most days, is he? Like who's losing time for Pham? So Melendez has played all four games the fam has played. Fam has started four in a row in right field. Prior to that.

Renfro is losing time. Garrett Hampson and I think Tyler Gentry were playing in right field. Yikes. Both hands were in the corner. Is Renfro hurt or something? Renfro must be hurt because he was playing a lot. Oh he just came back yesterday. So it is interesting to see what will happen because Renfro is be hurt because he was... Oh, he just came back yesterday. So it is interesting to see what will happen

because Renfro is a righty. But Hampson and Gentry are barely major leaguers in my estimation. So, you know, replacing those at bats made sense for the Royals. What will happen going forward? I think Felix, Freddie Fermin, 104 WRC+, Catcher, Young, you're playing Sal Perez at first base, I think you use some

fam over for me and I think fam continues to play every day between the corner outfields and DH. I think it's just enough to try and rely on him again. It's like right on that playing time cusp all the time for Tommy H. You know what it strikes me is like, it's a little bit risky and it strikes me a little bit like the Ramon Larianno situation. Yeah it's probably a good comp. I mean they're leading a lot.

It's like a right hander that's like still playing and like plays and you're just like when will they stop playing. This is a situation where seeing the Royals leading Tommy Fam off makes me think that they value his bat over a few of those other options they've been mixing and matching and that they'll prioritize him. So even if it's not every day, maybe it's an 85 or 90% share. I think it's just enough. The other veteran player who's back in the mix right now that I'm really not sure what to do with is Anthony Rizzo. He's not heavily heavily rostered. I think he's 33% rostered in CBS leagues, 28% in the Road to Wire online championship.

That's the NFPC 12 team format. We just haven't seen a healthy and productive Rizzo since the concussions, the concussion last year. Who are you looking at on the corner on your roster right now and then looking at Rizzo and saying Rizzo's an upgrade? Who are the would you rathers right now? I know it's great to be part of that Yankees lineup and to hit in that park it's just I have a lot of questions about whether or not he's actually still Anthony Rizzo after the injury.

By the bat X at first base Rizzo is not even on the first page? Jesus. Gosh, 41st bat, bat bet bat bat first baseman going forward behind Luke Railey and Juan Yepes okay well I would take Rizzo over Yepes I take Rizzo over Drury would you take Rizzo over Lamont Wade jr. supposedly a $7 difference between them I think I'd take Lamont Wade jr. Seth Brown maybe Rizzo because of the park. That's probably where the line is. Rowdy?

I think I'd take Rizzo over Rowdy. Okay, so he's the 30th best first baseman maybe, Rizzo. Yeah, alright, so if you're in a 15-team league and you need help on the corner and you've got one of those names we mentioned or someone worse, then that's where the move is? Some of the first basemen ahead of him are available other places so if we put steer somewhere else, if we put Paratus at third, if we put Cronenworth at second, Geo Urshela at third, and David Fry at catcher we can sneak Rizzo into the top 25. Geo Urshela is projected to do more than... Yes.

That doesn't... I'd take Rizzo over Urshela. That's a... Okay, so we'll sneak him into the top 25. So he's a 15-team CI. I think you got to be careful. You'd be in a pretty dire situation in more shallow formats to be excited about Rizzo, but he's back nonetheless.

Hopefully he's healthy. There is opportunity there. They need a solution at first base, as we've seen during the time that he's been out I think we asked a similar question about Spencer Torkelson last week or two weeks ago But what are you doing with Jordan Walker in in shallow leagues? You know, he started five of six before a day off on Wednesday Is he back in the mix for shallow and mid-sized leagues now that the cardinals seem to be somewhat committed to giving him a look? Down the stretch. Yeah, I mean the nice five for five home run game

has got me interested. Five for five in Yankee Stadium with a home run of a stolen base and three RBIs, I'm on board. Like, he's one of those guys where like, I used up all my fab, I have $30 fab, and I need to find a power hitter for five dollars out of a thousand, you know, I go for it.

Alright, so if you were in the scenario you described earlier, you're scraping by with a Ramon Lloriano as your last outfielder, you'd actually look at Walker and say, that's probably a little more here that I trust in terms of role and skills. It's a little bit more like if I'm in fourth place, you know, like scraping it out against third, like I'm a little bit more likely to maybe stick with Lorgano. But if I'm in fifth and you know,

I need to, you know, six points to get into the top three, like why not try Walker? Okay. Lorgano is just just gonna do a little bit here a little bit there and he might lose playing time because Jared Kellogg is right there like at least Walker's playing yeah the Cardinals have to figure this out it would be weird if they didn't give him near everyday time the rest of the season but the way they've handled Jordan Walker so far has

been pretty surprising to me so I guess I shouldn't expect too much in that regard there is a young player on the middle infield who is playing every day so far has been pretty surprising to me. So I guess I shouldn't expect too much in that regard. There is a young player on the middle infield who is playing every day and has decent plate skills and power and steals bases. Nobody likes him, Nick Gonzalez. Yeah, Nick Gonzalez is playing a lot. He's playing every day.

And he's made a swing change in the minors this year that has poured it over. Even though his swinging strike rate is still pretty high, with this new swing change he's somehow been able to keep from striking out as much as he used to. So if he's a true talent, you know, 22-23% strikeout guy with a 110 max EV, 8% barrel, none of this stuff leaps off the page. I don't think he has star potential, but above average second baseman with power and speed. I think that's on the table for him.

Yeah, I still see him more as an NL only guy right now, less of a 15 team middle infielder. But if you are just chasing playing time, I think you're going to see that Nick Gonzalez is playing more than a lot of middle infielers available in those leagues right now in the swing Change at least gives you a reason to be a little more optimistic that he can exceed Projection do better than he's done up to this point. We are at the point in the year You got to keep another close eye on rehab assignments wrapping up You got Clark Schmidt coming back from a long stint this weekend. He's gonna go Saturday against the Cubs So in leagues where you can make first come first serve moves

and the main event, he's already 100% rostered. But there are places where he's still available. Forty five percent rostered in the RotaWire Online Championship. I imagine Clark Schmidt is going to be one of the more popular pitchers added in September because he was pitching really well before going on the IELTS. Yeah. And of course, I'm going over to my favorite spot, the Yankees schedule page.

Schmidt at Cubs, one, two. He's home against the Red Sox for the next one. So if you're in a weekly league, pick him up on Sunday. They're calling it a six man rotation. Yeah, they're probably trying to not overwork Luis Heal. Yeah, so versus Boston, I don't want him for that. I know that Boston's up and first Boston, I don't want him for that. I know that Boston's up and down, but I don't want him for that.

And not at home against Boston. 123456 at Oakland. Love it. And then finishes versus Pittsburgh. So three out of the four starts I wanted for. I think there are probably situations, though, to where ratios are pretty stratified. Yeah, there's not just throw him against Boston. Throw him against Boston anyway. Yeah, chase the win, chase the K. I don't think he's so shaky skills wise

where I'm absolutely avoiding that matchup, but at least look at the alternative would be the way I would look at it. I've got Jacob deGrom getting close to a return too. It's so funny that the type of league you play in has a lot to do with whether or not he's actually available. Jacob deGrom is 75% rostered in CBS leagues, which is yeah, hey, look, 25% of the league is still out there. They have IL spots. Yeah. Online championship and main

event, 20 to 21%, right? And he won't be eligible in leagues unless he was drafted until he actually comes back and pitches this season. The way he's lined up right now, he's got a rehab start Saturday at AA Frisco. Last time out. So everybody check your NFC leagues to see if he's available if he was drafted there. Right, like you search him, make sure he wasn't drafted.

If he's available, get him now, because it'll be cheaper than when he comes back. If this start goes well, maybe the next start, middle of the week, ends up being in the big leagues. Then we're talking about him as a must add next weekend. He threw 43 pitches at his last rehab start. So let's add 15, let's say high 50s, maybe 60 is possible.

Just add 15 each time. Do you think he's gonna get a win? I think by the time he comes back, he might, because of that first start back in the majors, if it's the next one would be 75 pitches 80. Yeah, he was topping out at 99 7 Most through the lineup and is super efficient and just yeah just gets to five I'm into it like so make sure he's not available in your league right now

And if you have to wait I'd still be kind of excited to get a couple of starts from Jacob deGrom at the end of the season because it looks like the stuff at least from a velocity perspective is coming all the way back. Having a perfect time for me in my 12 team dynasty where I've had him on the IL all year and I'm in a bye right now and oh look I get Yamamoto and deGrom back just in time for the playoffs basically taking the Dodgers plan. Hey, maybe it'll work.

Maybe it carries you to a title. We'll see. Brandon Sprout was pitching opposite deGrom in that last rehab start, by the way, and was touching 100 in that game. So. Yeah, he's really taken off on people's radars. The numbers don't leave off the page for you in terms of AAA strikeout rate. But let me go to the shiny real quick. I don't think I've looked at his numbers with AAA.

I'd also love to know if Brandon Sprote does well at the top of the zone, gets the AAA, zone gets lowered and then things are just different for him too. Big fastball guy like that probably elevates it. We've got a plus change up and a plus slider and 94 stuff plus on a 97 mile an hour fastball. That's yeah but it means it's not ideal shape. In fact I'm looking at the IVB on it. It's not good. It's below average IBB. Yeah. So when you were talking earlier about how much I would be interested in the Mariners,

they've changed the batter's eye and maybe make the park better for hitters. I think the way I felt about the Mariners where I'm cautious to say, oh yeah, it's just fixed. They fixed the batter's eye. I have the faith that the Mets, as they continue to build their pitching lab and retool things under David Stearns, might be able to take someone like Sprote, who has two above average secondaries, big Velo on the fastball,

they might be able to fix a fastball that's not perfect. That might be something they can do as an organization, or I'm at least willing to gamble on the possibility. So I think I'm really interested in Brandon Sprout right now. The park does a lot for you. That too. The park is helpful. His location numbers are good and he throws a fastball and a cutter.

Although the cutter is 87 and the fastball is 97. So that's a gyro slider and the slider that gets the good stuff plus is a sweeper. So it's a four seam gyro slider sweeper change situation. With good location plus numbers on the four seam, at least I'm predisposed to liking him. And 3% sinkers, like maybe he starts throwing more of those and really becomes like a five pitch mix guy

with command and Velo if not shape. I mean, you can't take every box normally. You got to make some choices. And if he has Velo, command, and a big arsenal and a good home park, it's like, okay, so his fastball didn't have great shape. Maybe he'll still make it. Yeah.

Like maybe he won't be a top 20 starter, but he'll be a really good 25 to 40 range starter. Those guys have plenty of value for us, so that would work out just fine. Christian Scott's story tells us that they're doing something right in New York when it comes to pitching development, I think. Yeah, I think so. DJ Herz gets Miami for a stream, not available in a ton of leagues, but about 30% of RotaWire online championships, I would just say like make sure you've, you're not ignoring the possibility that hers is out there in your league.

Casey Myers gets a streaming opportunity against the Rockies, that'll be at home. I think if you're in a deeper league, that's actually available in some places, I would consider it because of the quality of the opponent and because of the ballpark. And then you've got the Guardians with Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb.

Boyd's gonna get the White Sox on the road. So that's gonna just juice the roster rates all the way up. He's 31% rostered on CBS, 86% rostered already in the Road to Wire Online Championship. Hard to argue with the results with Boyd. He's gonna get the Dodgers between now and the time of that White Sox start. So the results might not look as good

once that Dodger start happens. But a 20-5 strikeout to walk in 22 and 2 thirds innings so far, you have to throw them against the White Sox, right? That's a layup for streaming, right? Yeah, yeah, but you know, you Darvish at Seattle is a nice one, I like that one. Yeah, Darvish still out there in some leagues because of the lengthy absence he had. I don't know if it's how much intestinal fortitude you have because Reed Depmerz did not necessarily look that much better under the hood in his last start out, but he gets a two-step against At Minnesota and Houston that at least puts him on my radar a little bit if you need the extra start.

Yeah, the two-step guys you'll see, you'll see Deppmers coming back from the minors, you'll see probably Cader Monteiro in some of the more shallow leagues out there. Cade Povich gets two on the road against the Red Sox and Tigers. I'm not, I mean the Red Sox one scares me with that fastball of his. It's a really tough two-start streamer bucket. I think all of them. Valente Velozo is at Pittsburgh at Washington But I just there's nothing that he does that I like that's it's worse skills best matchups of the bunch though

Yeah, I think in that instance with those names I might actually prefer a one-year old the boast the most of that girl really yeah again Situationally if my ratios are already kind of dinged up anyway. It doesn't matter. Another one streamer, though, you do have Alex Cobb going against the Rays. I can't believe they're getting as much as they are out of Boyden Cobb right now in Cleveland,

but good for them. Yeah, I think sometimes you take these one starters that might cost less and might actually get you a better shot at a win. You know, I think Alex Cobb in Tampa maybe has a better shot at a win and a good start than both of those Belloz's. Even though like Belloz, like it's Pittsburgh and Washington, it's his Miami offense behind him. Yeah, yeah. Better than the two Detmers starts, given that the twins and Astros have a ton to play for right now. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, that one.

I don't think I could stomach actually. Now I bring it up. I just wanted to put that on people's tables a little bit. Brayden Birdsong might get to at home Milwaukee and San Diego. That, again, takes some fortitude, but at least he's home. You're giving me a park and you're giving me a guy with stuff that I actually like, even though the results have been really inconsistent so far.

So that's at least somewhat tempting in those deeper situations where Birdsong might be on the wire. We gotta go, Eno's got a chat that's about to start up. You can get a subscription to the athletic at theathletic.com. I better get a cat jiff real quick. Slash rates and barrels. Yeah, get yeah you know it's gonna get the cat

jiff fired up I like if you like to jiff but hey you know it works either way you find you know on Twitter at you know Sarah's find me at Derek and I for find the pod at raves and barrels thanks to Brian Smith for producing this episode that's gonna do for this episode rates and barrels we're back with you on Monday thanks for listening I like. I like you. I like you a lot.