Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - 2023 Rookies After One Month

Episode Date: May 2, 2023

DVR, Eno and Welsh review some of the biggest rookie performances from April. Who to buy and sell, plus some Dynasty rank overall changes. Rundown 1:27 - Outman production vs K rate 12:45 - Corbin Carroll 18:28 - Esteury Ruiz 22:31 - Josh Jung's adjustment for more power 26:39 - The "who got demoted" game 29:25 - Oscar Colas 34:04 - Outman vs Colas 42:34 - Could Evan Carter get called up? 50:45 - Wander Franco's dynasty rise 59:33 - What pitchers are left to speculate on in the minors Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp (paid ad), Visit betterhelp.com/rates today to get 10% off your first month. Head to factor75.com/rates40 and use code RATES40 to get 40% off your first box. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. Bucket Rates and Barrels.

It's Tuesday, May 2nd. It's a Project Prospect edition. I love arbitrary cutoffs on the calendar. We have a new month. I'm excited about it because then we can just take a snapshot of the season and talk about that like it means even more than it actually does. I love to blow things out of proportion with arbitrary units of time, even though the calendar is pretty well agreed upon as the way we measure time now. Chris Welsh, Ingo Saris, Derek Van Ryper, all here with you on this Tuesday for our April Rookie Review.

We're going to talk about some players at the big league level, how they have performed so far, and probably dig into some players from a dynasty perspective as well and talk about how their value has shifted over the course of the season so far. Now, we're going to start on the position player side today. And we're going to start with James Outman, who from many angles looks like someone that's going to be relevant for the Dodgers for a good while. Despite the fact that he has struck out 34.2% of the time this season, because he does a lot of things well. He makes very hard contact. He's got a strong arm. He runs well. He actually takes walks. So he's got this thing, and I talked about it with Welsh a little bit before the show, you know, where it's this sort of tension that you have between strikeout rate and doing damage, and Altman does enough damage for us to excuse the elevated strikeout rate.

But it always leads us to the long-term viability question. What kind of role do we see for Outman? And do we see a path forward where he can improve? Because this is his first prolonged exposure to big league pitching. And there are a lot of interesting skills in what he brings to the table. I mean, when you see a 34% strikeout rate, which I think is probably close to his true talent.

I know we've only seen 130 play to play instance for James Altman, but he's strings and misses a lot. And he was near 30% in the minor league. So I think 35 is about what you expect. Now you take that and say, as a lefty against the lefty, what do you expect? 38 percent, 40 percent. And if it's 40 percent.

Ouch. Yeah, that doesn't work. 40 percent seems to be the threshold that teams say this is not working. We're not giving you time. 30 percent. Right. But now now if you hit the ball hard and play good defense uh you can still be in there uh at 30 so i would say 40 is too much and i would say that he is going to probably be limited

to being a uh big side platoon player um although the the only caveat is if he does uh improve that strikeout rate to you know like 25 which he's shown at some levels in the minor leagues. I think he can play all the time. Strikeout rate improves to the age 26. He's 25. I mean, that's just broad strokes. Obviously, every player is a little different.

This is not a 19, 20, 21-year-old that's come up. This is a guy who's been playing for a while that's come up very close to a guy who's been playing for a while. That's come up very close to his peak. This could be his peak. Well, yeah, I guess the, the other question you have here, aside from looking at his 2023 value and whether or not you would trade him away in a redraft league,

thinking about it from a keeper and dynasty league perspective is also challenging because this is the type of profile Welsh that you've said gives you a lot of difficulties. The older guy that puts up great numbers. I think that profile has been further complicated in recent years by the lost 2020 season. James Altman was going to be old for the level regardless, but then missing 2020 made him even older for the level, playing at high A and double A in 2021 as a 24-year-old, right? So all of that makes this even a little trickier to sort out

and what i have found in long-term leagues is players like this the slightly older breakout types tend to be better holds or guys to trade for than to trade away even at their peaks relatively speaking because they don't bring back a ton via trade you actually get a little bit of a discount so if you end up being right about Altman as sort of a circumstantial, longer track development sort of guy, then you end up with a really nice player for the next couple of seasons. I don't know if you

look at his profile and say, five years from now, James Altman's going to be a big side platoon masher in the big leagues, but you're not worried about that far down the road in many circumstances. You're just looking at this season and maybe next season. You're more excited that maybe in the next two or three seasons, he's an everyday player.

Yeah. And like you said before, too, these are the guys that give me the biggest struggles, like these late blooming older guys that also, it's not that he like popped out of anywhere. I was talking with a DVR before about like the AFL and he was like solid. It was actually very Lars Neutbar ish, like where Lars wasn't like this big superstar when he was about the AFL, and he was solid. It was actually very Lars Neutbar-ish,

where Lars wasn't this big superstar when he was in the AFL, and it just kind of started to gain and gain. Altman was kind of in a similar trajectory that I struggle, but I have seen Altman a whole bunch, and I've seen the progression from the AFL to, I was telling you, Diamondbacks opening day, when I saw him and he was

crushing balls. You know, I was looking at the profile though. Let me get your guys's take on this. And I'm curious, and this is going to be a weird comp for everybody, but I think you'll know where I'm going with this. I look at the profile and sure, the strikeout rate is crazy worrisome. But everything else he does is at a pretty high clip. You know, he's hitting the ball really hard. And the thing that jumped out to me to this comparison was his barrel percentage, which

he's got like an 18 percent barrel percentage. It's a really high barrel percentage for a guy that hits the ball hard and the thing that jumped out to me to this comparison was his barrel percentage which he's got like an 18 barrel percentage it's a really high barrel percentage for a guy that hits the ball hard and strikes out and you know what immediately came to my mind Teoscar Hernandez because Teoscar Hernandez is one of those guys that absolutely crushes the ball hits the ball really hard has strikeout problems it was better the last couple of years, but it's over 32% this year. But what does he also do? He also always has like a 15 plus or, you know, maybe 13 plus barrel percentage. So it's a guy that barrels the ball hard,

hits the ball really hard, but has swing and miss issues. The only thing that out, I mean, if you look at their baseball savant page, they're kind of similar. The only thing that works in favor of outman is he actually has a pretty favorable chase rate compared to Teoscar Hernandez and Altman can run. But that's, there's a, there's

a weird thing there. So Teoscar's aggression probably helps lower his strikeout rate. So, uh, what you're seeing with Altman is he doesn't swing as much as Teoscar. That's probably the biggest difference. Otherwise I really get where you're going with this. And I think that there is some athleticism for Altman that will make him play on the upper end of his strikeout possibility outcomes. But the problem is, if he's more patient, he's going to get more strike threes. Just by nature of the beast, he's going to see more strike threes go by backwards. And so if he sees more backwards case that that's going to be more case overall.

That's actually really interesting. You tell a guy like Altman, Hey, just be more aggressive. Yeah. Cause like this year, uh, taskers got a,

like a under 2% walk rate. And, and to your point, Altman is in the double digits at walk rate. A fascinating point to it is if you go back and look at Tay Oscar, his numbers at his 25, 26, at 26 in the majors, 33% K rate. And it was in the 30s the year before that. And then what happened?

It started to progress. Next year at 20, what is this? More playing time. Yeah, at 27 years old, 30%. 28 years old, 24%. And then it rose a little bit more. So what I'm getting at is like, obviously not like the same players,

but there might be similar skill sets in it that to your point, if it can be honed in, maybe Altman needs to be a little bit more aggressive. And we also have to give him the benefit of the doubt that like he only has so much time under his belt. I don't even think he's actually got out of qualification of rookie prospect qualifications. He's not even off my prospect list yet. So just think of think he's actually got out of qualification of rookie prospect qualifications. He's not even off my prospect list yet. So just think of who he is at this moment

and think about potential progression. And maybe, just maybe, Tay Oscar is some type of like a sample to look at for a similar skill set. But you did identify like the walk aggressive strikeout rate might be something that doesn't actually work in outman's favor one thing that does i think work in outman's favor one thing that doesn't is that trace thompson's on this team um and uh and so you have a natural platoon in center one thing that does work in his favor is that the dodgers are mixing and matching and looking for offense. And you can only mix and match at another, at like two or three spots. And so, you know, you have to think, if they are definitely platooning in left field, right,

and maybe platooning at DH, How many more places can they platoon? And then what is their actual up-the-middle infield situation? So, you know, there is some possibility that Altman plays every day against righties and a lot of days against lefties in place of David Peralta. Right. He could end up at the bottom of the lineup against lefties, still keep that playing time because he ends up being one of their best options in center field. Anyway, that's a big part of this too. The other comp I think I could throw out there is maybe Tyler O'Neill from

a contact quality, swing and miss athleticism perspective. It's from the left side instead of the right side, but we know there's a pretty wide range of outcomes in O'Neill's case. That's been, I think further amplified by the injuries that he's had, but when it's good, it's like a top 100 fantasy player.

When it's bad, it's a guy that you have a hard time rostering, even in a pretty shallow league. Yeah. Like next year he could hit two 20 with, you know, like 18 homers and five stolen bases in the year. Just one last question though,

on Altman going forward for this season, thinking about the way he approaches plate appearances, if you had to bet on it, or his strikeout percentage, do you think it's going to be better from this point forward in 2023, the same within like one percentage of the direction, or worse as teams get more opportunities to break him down? I'm going to say better. I'm going to go with better.

I think this is going to improve. I think he can end the year being a 30% guy overall. He's hit off-speed pitches pretty well, but his whiff rates across the board are a little bit higher, but fastballs he's been taking advantage of. I just think with that barrel percentage and how he could be potentially used maybe, that I think he might be potentially used maybe that i think um

he might be put in better situations to succeed so i'm gonna go that he is better and it ends closer to 30 than it is like 33 or something you know i i had to cheat and pull up the graph i've got the rolling k rate graph on here um and uh improved. So he started around 40%. And then the rolling K rate got down to 25%. And then it's gotten worse again recently. But I do think that that's a sort of general trend.

There's something that the pitchers figured out where they're like, you know, oh, okay, that's not working. We have a new approach to outman. And so he's got to figure that out again. But the fact that he did cut it for a while suggests to me that he can maybe figure out the next thing and cut it again.

So I'm going to say the over-under is 32%, which is better than where he is now, but still not very much better. Slightly better, a better. I think it's also going to be better just because of the type of hitter he is. I think when you see someone this patient, they can make some adjustments.

It's not only about whiffing. It's about getting into a decision to be more aggressive earlier in the count, not ending up in as many two strike situations. That seems like an adjustment. Like aggressive. Yeah. Right.

So is it ever going to be better than like a 28, 30% range? I don't think so. Barring massive adjustments, I think part of how he generates his power is probably taking some legit hacks that are a little uncontrolled. But I do think he could still improve

and seems like an important guy for them. Currently leads rookie position players in war, by the way, by a pretty healthy margin so far. So it's been a nice start for James Altman. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape

with available Alexa built in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly.

Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... And it felt a little like... Life's a trip. Make the most of it at Best Western.

There are 18 rookie hitters, by the way, if you use the qualified leaderboard over at Fangraphs, with a 100 WRC plus or better. Two are already down with serious injuries. That, of course, Logan Ohapi and Garrett Mitchell. I think two have been optioned, Edward Julien and Jordan Walker. It's been an okay year so far because you've got a few guys who are playing exceptionally well. Corbin Carroll has been phenomenal so far.

We're still awaiting. He's still the favorite, I think. He has to be the favorite for Rookie of the Year so long as his knee injury isn't anything serious. Now, Welsh, got anything on Corbin Carroll yet? Have we seen results from that MRI from Monday? No, I've been getting hit up a lot about it and I haven't got a response on

texting some people about that. But he banged into the wall. He was able to kind of get out on his own. He did have to be helped a tiny bit down the stairs, which is not good. They brought up Dom Fletcher, who... But he walked off. He was putting weight on him when he walked off the field. Yeah, but I think the weight was a little bit difficult coming down the stairs.

The initial move was not an immediate IL stint. What they did was they optioned one of the relief pitchers that was garbage and they brought up Don Fletcher and Don Fletcher has been playing really well. This is one of the reasons why I think the team was comfortable moving off. Wasn't he a guy we highlighted in some of our, in some of our, our numbers?

He's a leaderboard jerk that like stands out that you just kind of, you have a hard time seeing him getting a full opportunity in an outfield that crowded. Is that a fair assessment, Welsh? Yeah. I mean, he's like a points league type of guy. He makes contact. He's got little powers. But it is David Fletcher's brother.

If people don't know, it's David Fletcher's brother. Oh, really? Yeah. So you can understand like the skill set stuff that's out there with him. So you don't believe those ISOs because there's some like 200 plus ISOs. No, I think so. No, I don't think he's a because there's some like 200 plus isos no no i i think so no i don't think he's a 200 plus iso guy he can steal you see what i just did there i was like he's dead fletcher's brother i don't believe the isos yeah yeah exactly if you put

that together but they brought him up to give them a little bit of extra comfort while they're doing this and then they went for the mri and we haven't heard about it because the game didn't play i mean if this isn't the they don't have to tell us anything until yeah until today till they play and if this isn't the rates and barrels project prospect thing of the day where we in the show and we get news i don't know what is but all assumptions at least from what i've heard is things are good things are okay um i don't think he would play until Friday because they have another day off on Thursday, which is kind of weird. So that would be my assumption with it.

But I think we're okay. Knock on wood, you know, whatever other rabbit's foot, whatever you got to do. Glad you said it. Not me. He looks great though. So far, four homers, 10 steals in 28 games. It's better than a 2050 pace if he's able to stay on the field. That's the profile

of a pretty soon-to-be first-round fantasy pick. A lot of the batted ball concerns are gone. 111 max EV is not top 10 or whatever, but it's also above average. It's comfortably above average. 11% barrel rate. Again, not the

18% you get from Altman, but hey, for Corbin Carroll, you get a 22% strikeout rate, right? So you're more likely to have better on base, batting average numbers, and then the speed is coming through. What's the overall leaderboard

on steals? He's probably up there. By the way, while you're looking at that, just impressive to also throw out that that guy did not walk until like April 20th, and he's got an almost 8% walk rate already. So just like think about that. Yeah, he got back up to league average. Yeah, he was able to get back up to league average. He's barely over 20% strikeout rate.

As far as his savant page, it's know it's near the top like quarter of the league and about everything you know wobah and hard hit percentage is in that general vicinity top 30 xba i mean he's a guy that does he's surprisingly living up to a lot of the expectations which is tough to do your leads the league and steals is still alive. He is tied for fifth with 10. Acuna has 13 Mullins has 11. And also you can just fudge the definition of league and, and just be national league. If that helps him at all. Yeah.

It's going to be tough. Yeah. Yeah. Ruiz has 11, but if Acuna starts hitting homers, that's fewer times to steal. And, and that's part of the deal too there.

By the way, is there a better video? I just had typed in his name just to see if there's any news as I said it. Is there a better video than that video that's out from a couple days ago where Perdomo is running to home and Corbin Carroll could literally pass him? Like they are next to each other running. That is how fast he is. Go look if you haven't seen the video out there a lot of different sites have it codify cut for all that but Corbin Carroll is like literally piggybacking on Perdomo running to home yeah Perdomo really shouldn't be slow he plays shortstop like it's

not it's not picking on like the backup catcher or someone who can't run in the clip so uh that's corbin carroll i said before the show his legs are faster than his brain can tell him to slow down it's like that's how fast he is it's not a knock on him at all he's just unbelievably fast let me ask you guys something what makes corbin carroll not a a top two round pick next year? Like, see what he is right now. What is the thing that makes him, understanding like who he is, the trajectory of where he's at, he's improved his walk rate,

strikeout rate's low. Like, how does he become not a top two round player? If he just, if he underperforms his barrel rate and only hits like 15 homers this year. And even then. 15 homers. But what if he has 40 stolen bases barrel rate and only hits like 15 homers this year. And even then... 15 homers. But what if he has 40 stolen bases? Right, even then.

15-40 still probably goes in the middle of the second round. It's like kind of Trey Turner-esque. Yeah, and that's... 15-40 goes in the middle of the second round if it comes with a good average instead of a great average. If he's hitting 300-plus,

he's still probably a first-rounder at 15-40. Yeah, I think the Trey Turner, the way people traded Trey Turner at the beginning of his career, I think it's going to be very similar to how Corbin Carroll is treated if the numbers look at all the way they look so far once we get to the end of the season. Speaking of speed, Estier Ruiz, stealing tons of bases. So if you drafted him, I think you're fine.

You're happy, right? But we are still right. We're still right, but you're getting what you wanted from him. 11 steals. It's tied for the most among rookies with Jiwon Bae, who actually has kind of the identical skill set. They almost have the exact same everything. Ruiz strikes out a little less or has struck out a little less so far. I think

other than that botched diving catch attempt with Mason Miller on the mound, I think Ruiz's defense at center field has actually been at least okay. Good enough to keep him in the lineup every day. The A's wanted to play every day because he was a huge part of that trade, so

clearly someone they are prioritizing. But now that you've seen some more of Ruiz at the big league level, Welsh, what do you see short-term and long-term? Who are we comping him to, and do you think he's actually in some weird way kind of hurt his long-term value and keeper in dynasty leagues because of the shape of these first 29 games this season? Yeah, so I think a lot of people had built in that Asturias could be Alberto Mondesi.

Like, you know, that peak Mondesi where they're like, you know, he was 15, 20 homers, all those stolen bases. I think that is like a perception that got into people because of what he was doing in the minors. And what you're seeing right now is he exemplifies so much of those zero Homer type of guys. Like I think I was like a DJ Lemay Hugh with his like two percent barrel

rate straw with no with no patience. Yeah, there you go. That's exactly like he lives in that world with no patience, though. Interestingly enough, he has an under 20 percent K rate, but he's not walking. That's more what you're talking about. Not walking and also chasing a ton. It's all hit tools.

No, you know, he had that one year blip in walk rates. And in fact, if you look underneath the hood, a lot of those were hit by pitches. Yeah. So I think he's,

I think he's just lowered the value that it's a good point. I think it's a more, it's a higher categorical mile straw for whatever that is for people because of the stolen base numbers but at the end of the day with the power seemingly looking like it's not something the low barrel rate i mean he is in the bottom 10 bottom eight percent of technically the league in average exit velocity he's just not going to tap into those big power numbers and he has to get on base to steal so i think that's a worry a guy that's like chasing a whole bunch and doesn't walk very cool that he has a 255 batting average

but his xba is 20 points lower and he has no other floor to help him out he has to get on base to provide you value and that's and he has to get on base by hits yeah yeah exactly he has to hit to get on base so i think it um if anything i tend to be a little bit more cautious about guys like him i was probably cautious in my dynasty value and i don't think he's done anything to improve it he's just out there getting time to go but i think he's as worrisome uh as it comes it'd be such a strange season if he just kept doing what he's doing which players never do right they don't just take their first 30 games and repeat it five times. The max exit velocity is in the 46th percentile,

so there's a little bit of hope there that it's what you'd call non-zero power, that high single digits are possible. The ballpark, the home park, works against him in a pretty big way. He's not getting to it. 33% barrel rate is in the very bottom. Yeah, it's a lot of blue on the StatCast page. It's bad, yeah. 3.4% barrel rate, which is worse than last year, by the way.

Yeah, so that's where your rookie speed has come from in the greatest numbers, but obviously Carroll running a ton, Juwan Bay running a ton, Volpe settling in a bit after a slow start. That was something that I kind of thought we'd see. It takes guys time. That's why it's so fun to look at these numbers now. It's basically, are you playing well enough

to avoid the demotion? That's most of the analysis right now. It's that and then based on what you see so far, how much do you alter that trajectory long-term for players throughout this group? On the non-speed side, Josh Young is mashing. K percentage is up right now, 32.4%. I think this is kind of similar to the conversation we were having with Outman, but the difference is

Josh Young doesn't have quite that same seems like a finished product feel to him. He's lost a lot of time to injuries. He is 25. He's 25 as well. He is 25,

but he's missed a lot of time because of injuries, so you factor that in plus the 2020 season that Outman also missed. What's next for Josh Young? Because when he was a younger prospect, when he first got drafted by the Rangers. Minor league strikeout rates are much better than Outman. I kind of thought that was a realistic expectation for him.

And he never seemed like a guy that had bad like bad hit tools any scouting reports it was always at least an average sort of hit tool and for a guy that could hit in the middle third of the lineup with thump i've been excited about him for a long time so it's kind of a similar question i just asked you guys about outman is it going to get better is it going to stay the same or is it actually going to get worse for josh young with this k rate um i'm going to be more definitive on this one and say it's going to get better and it's going to cross under 30%. And he has the chance, he has a much better chance of getting it to 25% at some point in his career. Because I do believe in the relevance of minor

league numbers. Now, I don't think that they're, you know, gospel, but they tell us something about what's going on. And I wouldn't be surprised if there's an adjustment period and also a post-injury adjustment period that we're in the middle of for him. Yeah, I actually agree with that. I think something I saw a ton, I was just at Rangers camp a whole bunch this year, and there were multiple times that Josh Young was individually working in different sessions. And one of them I've talked about in a couple of different places, but he had this, I've never seen this before.

in different sessions. And one of them I've talked about in a couple of different places, but he had this, I've never seen this before. It was like an individual 30 plus minute BP session where he was just tanking homers. And he had like, he hit, I'm not even joking. He hit like nine straight. They were just absolute tanks. And what I took out of that was that I think they knew the type of power that he could tap into. Cause he wasn't a powerish guy. He was more of a contact guy like back in college. And I think they've wanted him to tap into that. So I actually look at this as part of still that prospect, that process that's going on. He's learning to tap into the power.

He's learning to hit for more power. And what comes with that are usually higher strikeout rates and adjustment period. So I think that's what we're dealing with right now is he is going through a lot, plenty of missed time to tap more into that power. And it's becoming a little bit more aggressive. You just talked earlier, Hey, how can we make James Altman be more aggressive and not walk? I think that is part of what is going on with Josh Young. So I also definitively agree that this will get better. And I think he's an under 30% strikeout guy. And I think this is the development of a more impactful power bat that I think this lineup is looking for

just beyond like Corey Seager. Yeah, I've been operating under that assumption as someone who has him in a long-term keeper league. So I just wanted to make sure I wasn't seeing what I wanted to see. Just looking past something pretty significant that would point to the alternative. He only barely has a better max EV than Ruiz.

That's very interesting, but he taps into it more often. So, you know, I guess that could mean more, just more of his swings are A swings. Whereas Ruiz is taking more swings to try to put the ball in play. I don't think Ruiz would be served by taking more A swings, but it is interesting to think that they have similar underlying raw power. I don't think Ruiz would be served by taking more A swings, but it is interesting to think that they have similar underlying raw power. I think Ruiz might actually be using the right approach for his home park.

If Ruiz played for the Reds and could hit cheaper home runs, then maybe more A swings would actually make sense in that case. But he plays for the A's, so dealing with the park that he has for half of his games. I want to ask you guys if there are any potential buy lows among the prospects who are seemingly flirting with demotions to AAA, right? So it's about keeping your job. It's about playing enough, doing well enough with that opportunity to stay in the big leagues. And when you sort this leaderboard by war... I didn't mean to interrupt you. One of these actually happened as we

were going. One of these got demoted. I don't know which one it is yet. You guys want to take a guess? List the names and you guys can guess one of these players. Is someone got demoted while we're on the show? Yes, someone got demoted as we started. Is it the first three or the group of five? It is in the first three that you're going to mention. I thought it was way too much glee.

I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Good luck to that person. I didn't mean to. I just mean it's kind of funny for the podcast. Dino got so excited. All right. Well, at least it happened while we were recording. Let me roll that one back for a second.

Tristan Kassas, Oscar Colas, or Ezekiel Tovar. Who do you think got demoted? Francisco Alvarez. Francisco Alvarez. He's not part of that. Kassas, Colas, Tovar. One of those three just demoted? Francisco Alvarez. Francisco Alvarez. He's not part of that. Casas, Colas, Tovar. One of those three just got sent down. Really? One of those three.

Why do you know that? Welsh just said one of them got sent down. Yeah, it's one of these three on his list. They're on the rundown. On the rundown sheet. They're on rundown, which, yeah, I always look at. Casas, Colas, Tovar. One is no longer on the Major League team.

I'm going to go with... I'll get my guess in first. Okay, you got Tovar. I'm going to say Colas. The White Sox are having the internal crisis moment right now. We're in trouble. Yeah, the owner's speaking at conferences, and it's all going to crap. And the winner is DVR.

Oscar Colas has been sent down to Charlotte. Oh, it's Colas. He's gone. I think Tovar still plays shortstop, so you'd just be like, all right, just keep playing shortstop. Yeah, Colas is pretty bad. Below replacement level so far. I mean, Tovar has been too.

So his cast is down. Colas is really interesting from a statistical standpoint because you kind of look at these minor league numbers and you're like wow he hit 300 every stop had power looks like he's ready to go but if you look under the hood a little bit

you're like oh that 24% strikeout rate in AA came with a 17% swinging strike rate and we went to AAA that was a 21 so it's not great contact. It's pretty aggressive. No patience. And then once you bring in the age at level,

it's not his fault. He defected from Cuba, and so he was an older guy. But that A ball, which was 30% better than the league average, he was 24 years old for that. And he kind of, you know, he did perform at AA and AAA where he was more age appropriate. But age is definitely part of the fact that he's not just doing what he did in the minor leagues.

And I think like a lot of these guys we've talked about, I think there's just a seasoning and pitch recognition thing that goes on because he can run for his size he's got really immense power the swinging strike rate compared to his k rate is definitely a problem but it's also like a semi-positive that this isn't we're not dealing with like uh like outman like 34 if you look at the swinging strike rate compared to like 30 plus percent strike he hit a ball 113, you know, like the raw powers there. 7% barrel rate's not that bad.

He just had an under 200 XBA, which is a huge problem. And part of the reason that the White Sox made 11 moves today. Just want to point out that it was 11. But it's like, there's like reinstatement options, paternity leaves. Go look at the list it's 11 different moves they made today is Hendricks back? Hendricks is not back yet but they

Joe Kelly went on the paternity list Tim Anderson got activated two things that I got wrong this year just from a drafting standpoint was I didn't think Liam Hendricks would pitch this year I in fact quote unquote did my own research where I looked up like recovery times and it's not like a lot of ball players have gotten his cancer so

you know the recovery times are for you know everybody and he's you know an athlete so I guess that's not super surprising but also Bryce Harper coming back so quickly like the two of those uh surprised me. I figured at least another month for both of them before they were back. And to have them both be back early in May, I don't know what that means, though. Is that something that you would change your philosophy going forward in drafting is be more aggressive with people who are currently hurt?

See, I think that's the most difficult. Yeah, I think everybody wants to not be in on injuries i don't i don't think you can't i think harper was very specifically different though because it's like he was gonna dh you didn't have to worry about the field which i think made it feel a little bit better but i think overall i don't think they can really change any true timelines like you could have played the same game about altuve and we haven't heard a peep about Altuve off of his injury. So probably not. I'm thinking back to previous position players that have Tommy John surgery.

I think we're so used to pitchers taking a year plus that our brains cannot really handle the position player recovery window being shorter. And I'm not trying to take anything away from Bryce Harper getting back this quickly. But I also, I think the idea of a position player getting back in about six months is actually not as far-fetched as it seems, right?

If a pitcher beats the timetable of a year by a month or two, that is absurd. What Harper is doing is sort of at the normal aggressive end, as exciting as that is. It does not make me want to change my injury risk tolerance in drafts. I probably have been too tolerant of that for too long. I've taken on too much risk over the years. He had his Tommy John surgery two months before Trevor Story.

Two months before Trevor Story. Yeah. Well, also, each procedure is a little different. Everyone heals differently. So, I don't know. There's also those factors you got to account for as well. Flip a coin. Are either of you trading for Colas in long-term leagues right now?

He's played seven games in his career at AAA. Eno mentioned defecting from Cuba, having some long layoffs in his professional development just because of time where he wasn't able to play. I wouldn't give up on him completely based on the slump and the quick demotion. So is he worth going after and keep her in dynasty leagues right now? What do you think, Welsh? I think he is. I think he fits a whole lot of narratives that I kind of dig in buying sometimes. He he's come, he broke the camp, broke roster,

but now prospect fatigue is in, no one cares about him because he's up at the roster. He's also had struggles, which is just going to exacerbate this entire prospect fatigue where people are going to be really out like, Oh, we've seen everything we have because those underlying numbers, you know,

an under 200 XBA and stuff. That's not great. But the positives for me are the big hard hit numbers, the lack of crazy strikeouts. He also was running. And I'd also throw this out. They got to demolish this team. I mean, it's one thing to go and make 11 moves today. And they brought up guys like Billy Hamilton and Sammy Peralta or whatever. Like those are the guys they brought up. like Billy Hamilton and Sammy Peralta or whatever. Those are the guys they brought up. This team is going to get dismantled at some point,

and Oscar Colas is going to get free reign to run. And I think some of the underlying of the big Max EV. He'll come up and be the everyday starter at some point. Yeah, big plus hard hit number, 113 Max EV, lack of strikeouts. I think he's a talented player that just needs more seasoning. And this happens with these guys. So I think he's actually like a really good buy right now. I was actually going to ask you guys of Colas versus Altman. Who would you rather buy right now?

I know their pay up for Altman in a long term pay up for Altman. Okay. Well, I mean, I guess in a long-term league, if, if we're operating under the assumption from the beginning of the show that in a keeper and dynasty league, the room full of people playing are a little bit skeptical of

altman as a group and you're not paying as much as you would in a redraft league yes i'd rather trade for altman than colas right now i have biases against the type of player colas is at the plate in terms of you know very lots of chase lots of swing and miss not much patience um and so i can't help but think of the different leagues i have a lot of them or obp or points and i just i'm out on him for that um but in a batting average and a five by five yeah i could see i could see buying now you have to be the kind of league where you can demote him or you have a bench or you know what i mean like it can't be like can't be a place where you have five

or ten man bench I agree with that you're gonna you have to stick him somewhere I think unfortunately for the White Sox front office there's gonna be major overhaul right Rakan in the front office probably gonna get fully replaced things are not going well there right now and maybe for

the sake of White Sox fans, maybe Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhinney could swoop in and buy them next. I mean, things are going really well at Wrexham. Ryan Reynolds has a lot of money. I don't know if he has Major League Baseball franchise money, but he knows some other rich people. Deadpool 3's

coming out here soon. Yeah, see? Deadpool 3 might put it over the top. I think if you're a White Sox fan, that's who you're rooting for. You're rooting for the Wrexham duo to come in. For Ryan Reynolds. But here's my question for you with Colas.

I think from just a general who we thought he was versus what's happening right now, it's a good time to buy regardless what you think of the profile. How many success stories

in recent years do we have with the White Sox developing hitters? Getting hitters to actually be the players they're supposed to be? Even highly coveted international free agents, early draft picks, it's more underperformance than even meeting expectations.

They're all playing much worse than you expect almost. Right. Something seems fundamentally broken in getting the players from— Chase more than any other team in the big leagues and have for the last three to five years. Some of that's the players you choose some of that's like within the selection the profiles you're willing to take on in the first place but if you can't make those players even a little bit better you're doing some things wrong or you're missing opportunities i think when they tear this

down could it be as ugly as what happened in oakland Probably not because that's willful destruction. I think they'll rebuild a little better in Chicago, but I also don't see a lot of pieces on the next great White Sox team here either. I don't see a lot of young players up and down this organization that I'm actually excited about. I really thought this could be the breakthrough

year for Eloy Jimenez. It still could be, but now you start looking at these guys and thinking about the direction of this franchise and you think Eloy could get traded. Andrew Vaughn could get traded. Dylan Cease could get traded. If you're going to start turning this thing around, ideally you want your next group of people in the front office to make those trades. Those guys are much more likely to be playing somewhere else than on the next great White Sox team. My only argument to, I agree with everything you said. My only argument would be is like, if you're looking at it like, man

what has really worked out? And it's like, well, all the guys you did talk about have made it to the majors and like Eloy has had good seasons and Robert has had some theoretical good seasons and Andrew Vaughn has developed actually pretty well and Moncada would be one of the biggest we'd look at. He's been garbage

and then this year before getting hurt, he was playing back up. So I think there's's a bigger maybe longer term developmental cultural thing that i don't think the guys ever live up to the expectations but i wouldn't say that they always are kind of like big failures so i wouldn't look at those guys and then put that to oscar colas and see like oh well he won't work out i mean by virtue of what've done, technically he'll probably make it to the majors. He'll have a season or two that will work out and then they don't know how to maintain it and it will kind of fail. So it's a little blanket statement, I guess, overall, but I still believe in Oscar Colas. I think it's way too early to pull the pin. And I think people will because of the fatigue and the very, very small sample size,

but it is hard to deny like what an absolute train wreck this organization is. And they have not they don't have enough good guys in the minors to be this bad at the majors. And that's like a really big problem. Like you can't be this bad. And then who are you bringing up? Colson Montgomery, Lennon Sosa. And who else? There isn't.

Yeah, I guess that's where my bigger issue is, right? You don't have a lot of development success stories in the next wave. Guys like Eloy, who they traded for, he's supposed to be good. You throw a ton of money at, relatively speaking, a ton of money at someone like Luis Robert in international free agency,

you're not necessarily making him a big leaguer. You're getting a guy that's almost a certain big leaguer from day one. Yeah, to your point, that's what they've done they've got they've kind of bought more closer even oscar kolas more closer to finish products and the times that they've had to really fully develop it's been a disaster i think of garrett crochet who just pitched his first game in like a year that was a guy that with the quickest run from college baseball to the majors lower development has not been their play lenin sosa actually might

be the closest i can think of like a low low uh guy who i remember seeing back here in the the complex league that got to the majors but he's not a stud better yeah he's not these other guys vaughn vaughn did too vaughn was probably the best of this but he was a first round pick right he was a first round pick and but he did play complex he was a college bat you know the development is a big question yeah uh here let's put this call us potential stash in in in perspective let's say uh let's say you're kind of playing for this year but it's like one of those leagues where maybe you have an na slot or you know a place you can put a minor leaguer. You're also looking at this list, which is the best AA hitters

that are 24 and younger. You're saying, if I have one stash, I got one stash, Oscar Colas is on my team, but I could drop him four and number one in WRC plus, 24 and younger, is Henry Davis. Other names that don't have large strikeout rates

and seem kind of close to the major leagues that are on this list are Evan Carter, number five, the center fielder for Texas. Heston Kerstad, who we've talked about on last week's show, he's number six. Baltimore, he's playing some first base. Nick York for Boston, who seems just, they seem like they need help anywhere. Uh, he's got a 21% K rate and the ninth best, uh, uh, you know, uh, strike a nice ninth

best WRC plus among a 24 and youngers at double a do any of those guys, uh, you know, come up before Colas or, you know, yeah, basically come up before Col. Do any of those guys come up before Colas? Yeah, basically, come up before Colas. Are any of those guys a better stat? So Carter's the best of all of them, but I just don't know if he comes up this year. He's the total package, best prospect of all of them. I just don't know the path.

So if I was playing in a Dynasty keeper or some format, I'd be hard-pressed to not pick him up I'd have to have him but that's not really what you're asking of those players because I don't think Carter is a like huge huge option this year I think I might do it for Kerstad I really hate dropping Colas but um you know this is more sort of a redrafty like I don't this isn't like a I keep 25 players every year yeah I don't think henry davis is the answer to that i think it's kirstod i think kirstod is the answer to that with where he can play with how hot the bat has been though you also can argue i mean what did we do last week

we're like here's these three middle infielders which one comes up and it was joey ortiz that's still not even talking about colton kouser that they have on this team. So they have just a plethora of great options. How about this, though? Leote Tavares has a 64 WRC+. Yeah, I think we're reaching the point with Leote Tavares. We've seen enough of this movie. It's just not going to happen. Negative defense right now. Negative war right now.

He's got 700 career plate appearances. Still young enough. I guess you can't totally write him off. He'll turn 25 in September. But at 74 WRC. At 28, almost a 29% K rate, 5% barrel rate. You can't play him often. You keep looking at that 112 max EV,

but he's just not tapping into it. I'm looking at their roster right now. They got ezekiel duran at shortstop and i wonder they think they could move him to center i think they could move him to like left where jankowski is and adolis has got right so if you're focusing on center field carter could play there but what about bubba thompson they might want to get a good look at bubba thompson here um i don't want to dismiss the idea that Evan Carter can't come up because whenever I do, I mean, maybe I should, because whenever I do that,

the guy gets called up like 24 hours later. I'm circling his name. They covet him. This is a team that's playing well. I don't think much of Bubba Thompson myself, and I wouldn't be surprised if they thought of him as just an up and down type that can fill in when there's injury, but not the future. If they decide to make a switch on Tavares, I don't think it's to a short-term guy.

It is to the next guy that I think is a long-term solution. Yeah, I would also say. They're at the top of their division. The Astros are a game and a half back, nipping at their heels. They've lost something with Seager out of the lineup. Maybe they make this switch i think carter is one of the more interesting bat stashes there that's out there if they don't give that to bubba thompson what i think is it goes to evan carter if if they let bubba run with that center field and they play the corners, Dustin Harris is a guy that might come up first.

They might give him first run because Carter did have some pretty significant missed developmental time due to injury that I don't know if they'd want to push him. They also covet him as like their top prospect and they know he's the future. They would not trade him. He's not been available in trade talks, anything like that where some of these guys are that I don't know if they would push that envelope.

So if, if center was open and it's not Bubba, they might actually just go to Carter. If it's a corner, I actually think Dustin Harris might be the next guy, or you want to get Duran some full time. Cause he's been really great. I think that's where they would maybe shove Duran over into left.

And then you're just kind of looking at a, it's, it's, it's a Bubba Thompson versus Evan Carter situation. Well, there's a, there's also a thing going on right now that um they're carrying three catchers because of mitch garver playing dh yeah and mitch garver as a catcher well he's caught three games this year yeah it's good enough it counts as a catcher well who is it what i'm just saying is yes

what i'm what i'm saying is what if is it, Sandy Leone's third one? Yeah, Sandy Leone's third. What I'm saying is, what if that three becomes three in the next week? That's something that I would watch for. That's interesting. Because that means... That becomes three... Because I don't think Sandy Leone is something that they worry about. Sandy Leone's the guy that got on a minor league deal.

He's the guy... He's around. Sandy Leone's are always around. And so ifitch garver is starting to catch more games then i say that opens up a possibility that dustin harris or evan carter come up anyway because you've got dh and you can you can start to pull people through you can even make taveras the backup center fielder you know so there's like you know there's there's there's some roster in fluididity caused by having

Mitch Garver on this team at DH. From a profile perspective, do either of you think there's a significant difference in what Bubba Thompson brings to the table compared to Esteri Ruiz? Because I see the little bit of contact data we have from Thompson at the big league level is

just as uninspiring. Tons of speed can play center field, but I think you're getting a very similar... Ruiz makes more contact. Very, very similar profile. Ruiz makes more contact. Yeah, and I think Ruiz is less of a strikeout worry than Bubba Thompson.

I mean, I don't think he's the option, but I mean, Bubba did have a great run towards the end. They kind of keep running him out there, but offensively he looks bad and he doesn't hit the ball hard. I would rather a straight Ruiz over Thompson, but I think the comp is pretty fair and that, but that's the whole thing of like, I haven't wrapped my head around with teams is what,

what point is the team where they just don't care about like, Oh, we got to push down and development and service time and stuff like that because Evan Carter is a better option than Bubba Thompson right now. But this team does have like Brad Miller who can play the corners. Josh Smith has played center field

and did it in spring. They've got Bubba. They have all these guys. What point is they want to see what they have and they work through it at the major league level versus screw it. We're getting our top guy up here and he's helping now.

That's why I bring up the record. The record matters. Yeah, that's a good point. I think if the Rangers were even the opposite of what they are, 11 and 17, you would be, I think almost maybe, I don't know, would they be more or less likely to call up Carter? They'd be more likely to say,

oh God, we can't be this bad again after all the money we've spent. Yeah, direction matters, right? Overall direction, recent trends. I think that's what makes it. But if you're 17-11, maybe you say, hey, we could really do this. Let's push our chips in. Let's not worry as much about development time. Let's get Carter up here.

I'm texting a contact I have right now. And I'm not going to get an answer because we don't have enough time probably. But I am asking right now the likelihood within that organization that they would be open to Carter. So we'll probably have to save it for the next week's episode when I have a response, but I'm texting about that right now because that is one of the few teams I do have a direct contact to. Well, Kerstad, I think you make a similar argument for him

and most Orioles prospects. They've been waiting and waiting and waiting, and all these guys are ready. So why hold anything back? Henry Davis, other than the injuries that have cost him time in the minors for the Pirates, the Pirates are playing with house money at the start right now. So if they have any inkling that they can push more chips in, especially inexpensive chips, and just keep trying to get better for this year, Henry Davis is one of the absolute most inexpensive levers they can pull.

League minimum salary. They can call him up, see what happens. If it doesn't work, they can send him down. Especially since they have another catcher. So, like, you know, like if it doesn't work out, they actually have another guy they can just try. I think everybody you listed in that question, in the who would you rather hold in an NA spot for this year versus Colas,

I'd actually rather have any one of those guys over Colas. I think all of them are more compelling players by ceiling, and it could be just as long. Colas is going to be in AAA for at least, what, three or four weeks? If he goes on a tear at that level, he's barely played at that level in the past. So if they give him even a month, if we flip the calendar to June and he's back up, that might be the timetable for a lot of those names you mentioned because an injury might happen, more wins in the case.

The Pirates could happen, and the confidence is going to keep growing in a place like that. They're going to say, why not? Why not bring this guy up? He's going to be part of this young core. Let's see what he can do. I think Nick York comes up last because he just got to AA, but I did want to put him in there because he was a high pick

that people didn't understand, but now he's finally put together both power and contact in a way that I think the Red Sox obviously thought was possible. And then you just look at their options right now on the infield and you think, you know uh is Enrique Hernandez an everyday shortstop Christian Arroyo who hasn't who hasn't been league average for his career with his bat is at 62 WRC plus at Hobro Tomanesi is not uh not in the back from his IL stint yet. Still hurt. Still hurt.

Shows what I know. So I think that just maybe having York and pushing all those guys over to short might be a thing that they consider. You also have to figure Trevor Story is going to be back at some point. So I think Colas over York, but the rest of the names, yeah. Let's get to a few more names here, kind of looking from a long-term perspective. We can dig more into a pitching leaderboard once we get a few more starts from a lot of the pitchers. I mean, free-fought, as it says, over Welsh's shoulder. We want to see more of these guys actually get into the big leagues.

And for the guys that just got here, we want to see what they do with four or five starts. It's hard to look at that leaderboard and talk about more than largely a group of relievers. And Hunter Brown, who we talked about on yesterday's show, seeing the good things out of Grayson Rodriguez as well. But Welsh, you were including some of the dynasty movers on our rundown for today. And I think Wander Franco is the guy that we all kind of hoped he was going to be from the very beginning, right? It's happening, and I think it's not that surprising, although if there was any window

where you could have got him from anyone in a keeper dynasty league at all, that window has slammed shut, if that window was even open in the first place, because I think most people who had Wander were still probably waiting it out, but there are probably some that, in the right situation, were willing to move him.

And now they would not be. I think it was, I, this is, it doesn't always work when I get stubborn. I'm probably of like people that rank like in dynasty and prospects. I'm probably more stubborn than others in that. Like I was maybe slower moving to some degrees where I think there's like

aggressive jumps and the, whatever guys are here, here and here. And I'll like, I have like a slow tier, but the same thing applies to moving down and Wander. I kept Wander still as like a top 25 ish dynasty prospect, even though I know there was so much working against him, but I really believed in the first, that first month we saw last year and the injury taking away. And we've seen that so as far as identifying you know looking at my my top 25 on dynasty the biggest mover was wander being able to move from where he was into being essentially almost a first round pick and i think what's really fascinating

is this is you can have the conversation of like bo bichette versus him bo doesn't run anymore and wander looks like you know i. Wander looks dramatically a better option than that. It's kind of like is it Bowe? Is it Wander? I think Wander has moved past Francisco Lindor and some of those guys, but he's

a first-round pick. It's Bobby Witt, Wander Franco. I think he's right in that range. In a 15-team, he's a first-round. As far as one of the biggest dynasty moves, I think we got a lot of confirmation and a 15 team he's a first round so as far as one of the biggest dynasty moves I think we got a lot of confirmation is he a first round pick in redrafts next year I think it's I think it's close though I mean I asked like if he hits his rest of season projections he hits 290 with 19 homers and 21 stolen bases. If he's a 2020 guy with a 300 batting average and a team that is the most offensive powerfully,

his RBI numbers might touch 100. If he's 2020, I think it's going to be hard-pressed to not have him as a first-rounder. He's at least going to be fringe, early, second-to-15 team roto. I think he's right in that territory. Yeah, there's always the wanting to round up on players in that range too especially the guys in the back of the first round you could talk yourself into the younger player on the way up over the older player on the way down mookie bets has could have been that older player theoretically on the way down the last few years you're so trippy that you did that. I'm not even joking you.

I have Wander one spot above Mookie in Dynasty, and I was looking at those two, and I was going to ask that exact question of next year of Mookie versus Wander. Mookie also qualified shortstop probably next year as well. That's so funny you did that. Yeah. I think at this point, I think you can start to take Wander ahead of those sort of legacy first rounders, even if...

This isn't as Mookie as one stolen base. Even if you believe in Mookie, it's so weird. The Bo Bichette stolen base arc, which I know this is the prospect day, but he wasn't a burner when he was running. And he was a really effective base dealer. So I didn't expect it to fall off as quickly as it did. Mookie. No, no, Bichette. Oh, that's right. Bo stopped running at a much

younger age. Yeah, at some point he was 25 out of 26, and the next year he was 13 out of 24. Right, and part of it, you can see it in the sprint speed. Wander's not a burner either. He's 61st percentile in sprint speed. He's only 22, but two or three years from now, is Wander going to steal more than

a handful of bases? I don't know. He's an aggressive base stealer. He looks like he's still getting bigger and stronger, too. Yeah, I agree with that. And I wonder if that's going to sap some of the speed. He's more likely to hit 30 homers than steal 10 bases in three years. He might even hit 40 home runs three years from now.

I'd be more inclined to bet on Wander hitting 40 home runs in a season in the next three years than having him steal 30 bases in a season but you know who he's fashion this whole game against is uh jose ramirez uh interesting yes that's interesting you brought him up because i was also going to say like i think there's the argument that wander is maybe the top real true shortstop and trey turner would be the guy we're staring at but you know trey'srey's four stolen bases, two homers, 260 playing under, you know, underperforming. But, you know, if he kind of goes back to 25, 30

stolen bases and right under 20 homers, is that going to be significantly better than Wander who maybe has more homers, a little less stolen bases, but might have better RBI and batting average numbers. I mean, this is the range that Wander sits in. That's why I brought it up. I also got an update, by the way, on the Evan Carter thing.

I actually did get an update. Yeah, what's going on with Evan Carter? Yeah. So the update I got, this is from someone within the team, said depends where we are at, probably goes to AAA first. If he hits there, could be up during the summer. So that's the Evan Carter stuff. So there is an acknowledgement.

It's Leotis, dude. Everyone's looking at Leotis and being like, we got this other guy. So here's what to watch. Evan Carter getting pushed up to AAA quickly and when that happens, the clock probably starts. Yeah. I think that's a good way to look at it.

Just for reference, the summer solstice this year is on Wednesday, June 21st. That is the beginning of summer. So if someone says something will happen during the summer, that's the first day that it can happen if it's actually going to happen during the summer. You just brought out the definition of summer. I talk about elevations.

I talk about the solstice. You are ready to be a dad. Next time, talk about where we are in Mercury retrograde and then we'll be good to go. I've definitely had many conversations with my kids about the definition of, it's not even summer yet, Dad. It's not officially summer.

I think, I know, I know. Grayson Rodriguez, also a big mover on the pitching side, and Welsh, we're seeing an elevated walk rate early on. I wouldn't worry about an elevated walk rate for anybody over five, six starts. I'm definitely not worried about it there. But it does fit into the narrative of him sending him down, right? That was what people were worried about.

Elevated strikeout rates, though, too. Lots of strikeouts, though. Lots of Ks. I think you'll take that. That's a good combination. Ratios are a little chunky right now. 407 ERA, 140 whip. You wouldn't really expect that for a guy that's a good combination ratios are a little chunky right now 407 era 140 whip you wouldn't really expect that for a guy that's missing that many bats um do you think he's actually up for good from a dynasty perspective doesn't necessarily matter but is has he done

enough to change their plans well i got a great dynasty question real quick for you i do think that you're especially from a developmental standpoint you're not going to send him back now especially when he's seen success, even though there's warts. But who would you rather have in dynasty right now? Grayson Rodriguez or Nick Lodolo? Grayson Rodriguez. Yeah, I'm Rodriguez over Lodolo.

I think it's kind of always been that way for me. Oh, all injury history with Lodolo too. I mean, we can't remember, we can't forget that, you know, he couldn't stay healthy for a while. Yeah, a little more, a little more of it with Rodriguez has been kid gloves. I know he has been hurt also. The home run issues for Lodolo are awful,

and that park is obviously not going to help that. Is Lodolo, though, a good long-term target right now? Is this your window to possibly get him for much less than you would have had to pay during the offseason? I'm going to burn on this off season i'm gonna burn on this one because yeah i think i i'm still kind of a buy i think the pitch mix is kind of weird right now you know i feel like we talked about this like he's not throwing the curve or maybe i was talking with someone else like the curve usage has been a little bit down that's his best pitch

uh i think it is he's doing that because he's going to the uh the foreseam more yeah uh than the sinker and the sinker pairs well with the curve. I'm a buy. I think he's a buy because I think it's dirt cheap right now and I think he is far too talented, but there is so many concerns. I get why people might not want him. You could just buy him on K-BB alone. You really can.

30% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate. Better days are coming for Ndolo. He gets hit in the zone a lot. 450 batting average on balls and play against nick ladolo on top of the home run issue so if you're wondering how the era gets up above six and now the whip gets to the 1.73 well that's that's it but projections are all still buying in projections are mostly the bat has the least optimistic projection 449 and 132 for the ratios steam Steamer, near the mid-3s,

361 with a 119, ATC 392 with a 123 whip. All of those projection systems over a strikeout per inning. So this is a profile that if you've got a pitching problem right now, Nick Lodolo, reasonably speaking, should be affordable. He might actually be able to help you despite what's happened

so far. I'm the stash guy. I'm like, I do play a lot of dynasty, but you know, I'm the redraft stash guy. So are there any stashes left other than Brandon Fott? Gavin Williams is, I don't know how many more guardians we can like, really go down and stash, but he's the best of all of them. So Gavin Williams is a stash. Kyle Harrison down and stash but uh he's the best of all of them so uh gavin williams is a stash kyle harrison is a stash although kyle harrison threw 12 straight sinkers for balls in his last

start yeah well i mean and he might be a relief risk and a guy we talked about um because i know we're getting towards the end here uh but bobby. Bobby Miller might be another one of those guys. Yes, I wanted this. That was mine. Bobby Miller is number two on AAA Stuff Plus, right behind Mason Miller. He is the new name on the list because he's just come up to AAA. And Bobby Miller, I think it might be. I like him better than Stone, uh, better than Grove, better than all of the other,

uh, Dodgers, uh, pitchers that are, that are going to come up this year. And they're all going to come up this year, I think. So Bobby Miller is my stat.

Interesting. No, two, four of his five pitches, uh, are over a hundred stuff plus, which is absurd, uh,

registered pitches on your list. So people in the slide, I'm saying Louie varlin still in the top 10 and he is coming up this week i believe and he might have a month of uh of burn to him he is more of a fastball slider guy with an average cutter and the model thinks a poor change so as much as he pops and stuff plus there may be some lefty issues where you know the cutter is only average-ish and the change is below average so I'm interested to

see what he does against lefties I'm beginning to wonder if Andrew Abbott should be stashed talked about him a little bit with Al on the Friday show he's just done so much to improve his stock over the past calendar year the Reds still have a few clear non-long-term starters in that rotation.

Why not? Why not see what he can do at the big league level? The only thing you worry about with a Reds pitcher is the ballpark. If you like the skills, I don't see any reason why you wouldn't want to take a chance on stashing at it. I totally agree with that. There was an interesting put out about how they were doing

an experimental ball in AA, and he had like an absurd IVP and 20K per nine, and it kind of came back down to earth when he went to AAA, but he's, like it went from like- The pre-tag ball is very strange. Yeah, it went to like 16 IVP from 20 or something along those lines. It was some absurd numbers. So it came back down to earth, but he's been throwing strikes.

He's been really good. Also, another little, this doesn't have to do with pitchers, but I just want to throw this out, a side note, a prospect note. Xavier Edwards just called up by the Marlins. And why this is interesting is he's been working in the outfield. And I've been speculating, what if they put Xavier Edwards in center and they move Jazz off of center and brought him back to shortstop

but Xavier Edwards also a second base shortstop prospect so just know about that hits no homers gets on base makes contact steals bases but is not a home run threat in the Snell trade another stress test of the

can he hit enough to use the speed? Yeah. But he can get on base. The guy can walk. He can do that. It's been a little bit worse as he's gone on, but he is also a defensive magnet. So I'm going to be fascinated to see where they move him

because of the work he's been doing in the outfield. Something has to happen at short. I don't think Joey Wendell is the season. Yeah, they should put Jazz back at short. That seems like the better long-term play. And that's what I think could be this with Xavier. He's been working in the outfield. This might be the move for them to justify getting him back at short.

80 speed with a 50 future 70 hit tool, according to the Fangraph scouting report for Xavier Edwards. You don't see a lot of that anymore. Comes with, of course, very low in-game power. Yeah, throwback player as they as they refer to them we are going to head out if you got a question for a future episode rates and barrels at gmail.com is the email address you can find us on twitter welsh is that is it the welsh you know is that you know saris i'm at derek van riper if you'd like to get a subscription to the

athletic it's a dollar a month for the first year at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels that's gonna do it for this episode of rates and barrels Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.