Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - A Pitching Wave In Cleveland

Episode Date: April 25, 2023

DVR, Eno and Welsh breakdown some Stuff+ factors to consider for Triple-A pitchers, the latest call-ups and prospects to stash. Rundown 1:07 - Welsh was on Logan T. Allen before Bibee 3:15 - Tanner Bibee 8:14 - Stuff+ numbers for pitchers who go 50 pitches vs 80 pitches 12:31 - Altitude and it's affect on Stuff+ in the minors 18:16 - Tanner Bibee vs Brandon Pfaadt 31:05 - Michael Busch to the Majors 36:09 - Pirates prospects that could be on their way up 46:14 - Liberatore vs Silseth 52:!6 - Jordan Westburg vs Connor Norby vs Joey Ortiz 1:00:00 - Heston Kjerstad Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp (paid ad), Visit betterhelp.com/rates today to get 10% off your first month. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Tuesday, April 25th. And because it's Tuesday, it is a Project Prospect episode. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris, Chris Welsh here with you, digging into some recent debuts, recalls, demotions. We have mailbag questions, a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes, maybe even up to 60 minutes. It's going to put off my laundry problem a little longer, but I think I can make that sacrifice for the good

of the podcast. Clearly, the laundry wasn't that important this weekend because it's Tuesday and the basket is overflowing. Let's get to some recent news. Logan Allen, Logan T. Allen in some places, made his debut on Sunday for the Guardians,

got the win, allowed just one run on five hits over six innings against the Marlins, and racked up eight strikeouts while doing it. And it's the beginning of what looks like a wave of Guardians pitching prospects. Welsh, got to give you some credit. You said Logan Allen ahead of Tanner Bybee as far as the opportunity goes. It happened, and he pitched really well his first time out. Yeah, well, thank you for the credit. We saw credit back to Stuff Plus that Logan Allen was one of the guys in the very, very first onsets that popped in the Stuff Plus,

and I think it kind of probably was going to give us, at least I took it as it, and this is a credit to Eno again, take it as an insight that a lot of these teams that are analytically driven are going to pay attention to some of that stuff. And, you know, he was already popping. Also a lefty, I think, is something that they'd like to see in that rotation. And he, you know, he did the call. 17 whiffs in that start. His fastball was on point. He had a 42% whiff rate on his splitter, which he was throwing, and a 33% CSW. He was throwing strikes. He was going deep into 33 csw he was throwing strikes he was um he was going deep

into the game he was getting strikeouts this is exactly what they want and like you said we might walk into may with a prospect rotation that outdoes a veteran rotation in cleveland and i don't think that's anything any of us would have thought like i I thought Tanner Bybee was preseason was the guy that we could see early on. I never thought Peyton Battenfield and he was number one. And Logan Allen obviously came up and really dominated. And I think all of these guys have made cases to keep into the rotation. Obviously, though, Tanner Bybee is not quite yet, though. It looks like we're going to be seeing him very, very soon.

Yeah, most likely it's going to be Wednesday. We just found out that he's been scratched from his scheduled start at AAA on Tuesday. The Guardians need a starter against the Rockies on Wednesday with all the injuries piling up. So Bybee likely coming up. By the time people hear this podcast, the news should be official. This doesn't count as our one that we talk about and then it happens as a surprise. That comes later in the show. And even the three of us we don't even know we gotta be dismissive about the rundown we have to be dismissive about a prospect to be like

i don't think this is gonna really work out and then that guy's gonna get called up immediately after the show guaranteed but you know as far as the model goes with tanner by b how does he stack up to alan and the other Guardians options for this rotation? The interesting thing about Bybee is that he in fact had overtaken Logan Allen in the AAA

Stuff Plus race that is currently being won and probably will be won by Mason Miller because he's already up and they're not going to spend any more bullets in AAA. The updated chart is Miller, Bradley, Burroughs, Riley Thompson, Simeon Woods Richardson, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Harrison, Elvin Rodriguez. Let me just remind you, if you've not picked him up in your deeper leagues, you should.

He is killing it for the Rays. They picked him up from the Tigers, and he looks really good. Then Tanner Bybee at nine. There were some some foibles here. There was another player I think we talked about on the cast that we were just like, this guy's not actually good. So why is he number one? I forget the guy. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. The Giants organization or something it so it turned out was it luis palacios or yes luis palacios i think and they were calling all of his uh his fastballs change-ups oh in the minor leagues and they don't spend as much time on minor league pitch classifications getting it right and so i think it's kind of interesting to think that there could be other

people on there. There's right now, there's a guy named Jose Shasin who's in the top 15. And I just, I don't know that I believe it. There's none of the numbers say it. We got 48 pitches in there. I got to figure out what pitches he actually throws,

because if you call a fastball, a change up, then the model doesn't know what to define all the pitches off of. And then it says, you know, oh, I guess the slider is the fastball. And the changeup is you're defining it off the slider. So then it might look good. You know, then it might look like, oh, this guy's crazy good. And that is not the case.

So I think for these top prospects, I can believe it mostly. And so by B, I'm into the model says he's got his fastballs, his best pitch by stuff, plus, which is something I always like to see. And then his slider and change up are both good. And his curveball is not good, says the model. So it'd be interesting to see what his pitch make is when he gets to the big leagues. One last note about Logan Allen I find fascinating

is that he threw splitters, and it's very rare to have a lefty throw splitters. And that is not something that's happened a lot in the past. And I think it's because of two things. One, lefties are often lower slot. I don't know why that is is but that's what I've seen and if you were a lower slot like a side armor can't throw a slitter

it's just it doesn't work but and the other part is lefties see more righties than righties see lefties and so you would maybe want a change up with high platoon splits if you were a lefty you would want want a change up with high platoon splits.

If you are a lefty, you would want to get righties out with it specifically where a splitter actually has kind of neutral platoon splits. So Alan is out here finding success with a more neutral platoon split change up. The thing that I think ultimately is the answer to why Logan Allen can throw so many splitters is that the line between a splitter and a changeup has never been more gray. I think there's foshes, there's circle change. Like, if you just take a ball and make a circle change, oh, look what it's doing.

It's coming off the middle. If you aggressively, if you push that a little bit further oh that's a vulcan you know and then oh instead of doing a full circle you go yeah if you kind of go backwards off of that yeah so that's the full circle but but then if you if you kind of uh make the circle smaller and smaller you start getting a vulcan because you're splitting those two fingers right come on dvr get your cup and we're all but if you if you take the circle if you take the circle and then put it back up on the ball you got a split finger you know so it's all just like one sequence one sort of you know spectrum from from circle to full fork let me talk about that with gavin stone where you were pretty sure that that change-up was more of a splitter at the end of the day?

That was one of those guys I felt like we talked about early on. And maybe the model would like it better if it was a splitter. I don't think with secondaries it's as big a deal if it calls it a curve and it's not a curve and it's a slider or it's a splitter instead of a change up, maybe I don't think it's that much of a big deal as calling your fastball a change up. That is a big deal for the model. But at the same time, there's some disconnect where the model does not like Gavin Stone as a prospect at all. Interesting. I have a model based question for you, and I've been ruminating on this for like a week or so to save it so we could talk about here. Selfishly, it did have to do with the guy that we're going to talk about here a little bit in Brandon Fott. And the thing that got me thinking looking through here, because by the way, this is probably the most of any year that I really dug in.

I can't speak enough to how much people should check out the Stuff Plus. The sheet is great. That's why you should sign up at The Athletic. I love looking over it, and I think it's a very helpful tool. great. That's why you should sign up at The Athletic. I love looking over it, and I think it's a very helpful tool. And something I was thinking about, you know, was looking at the guys at the top that explode on Stuff Plus and nothing to take away from them. Obviously, I look at guys like Tosh Bradley and Mason Miller. It's incredible stuff. Even to a guy like Simeon Woods Richardson, who almost kind of toes this line. But one thing I noticed was a lot of the guys

on the high-end Stuff Plus are in the 50 range of pitchers of pitches per game. They're going around 50. So let's say they're getting through what maybe two parts of the order or something like that. And then a guy like Brandon Fott, he had one of the highest pitches per appearance of any pitcher on this around 87, close to 90. And his stuff plus was down a little bit. close to 90 and his stuff plus was down a little bit and it just got me thinking how do you weigh guys that are going 30 more pitches per appearance and their stuff plus where they're maybe going a third time through the rotation or your stuff kind of degrades a little bit later in the game versus guys that are kind of fresh you're only going 50 or 60 pitches in and that's where you

know the models are pulling from. Do you think there's anything to that when there's a 30 to 40 pitch difference and you see stuff plus changes between guys, or is it kind of irrelevant? No, it's totally relevant. One thing that I think of is the relevance of a size of an arsenal and having a non-optimal pitch, like even Tanner Bybee having this curveball, right? Like the model doesn't like it, but maybe it's useful as just a different look to help turn over the lineup and get further into the game. And then you have the Spencer Strider types who are five-inning, you know, two-pitch guys. And there's plenty of those as well. But I think in order to succeed as a spencer strider

guy you have to have like a 135 stuff plus like you just have to have just like through the roof stuff plus mason miller has a chance you know he's kind of he's he's kind of a three pitch guy but like they're all hard right it's like a hard slider a hard cutter and a hard fastball he's he's not he's not really like doesn't have a big velocity band. But he has such great stuff that, you know, he could be the next Spencer Strider, as some have put it. But generally, I think you do want to see larger arsenals.

You do want to see them go deeper into games. The other thing I think of is we have a pretty easy rule of thumb of taking five points of stuff plus off when you change from relieving to starting so um if you are talking about uh let's say here's a starter uh who has a larger arsenal um mike soroka i mean it's a three pitch guy but like, but he's at 101 stuff plus. He's had major league success.

He's in the minor leagues. He's got 101 stuff plus. He's going 72 pitches in, right? So he's kind of stretching out. He's trying to use all his pitches, 101 stuff plus. You know, if you had a guy there like, I don't know who Chris Clark is or Bowden Francis, I don't know who Chris Clark is or Bowden Francis. I don't know who these guys are.

They're around him and they have the 50 pitches, right? I would take Mike Sirocco. I mean, like you want to almost do that minus five off of them. But if you're talking about Taj Bradley with like a 121 stuff plus with 55 pitches, can take five off of that you know in your head and still be like still pretty spicy pretty spicy yeah oh yeah so or you could with the fat thing kind of be like you know he's gonna play above uh right now he's got a 95 you know i don't know you want to add five but he's gonna play above above the guys around him that have 50 pitches. Sean Dubin, he's better than Sean Dubin. I mean, this is the hot take right here.

Braden and Fott is better than Sean Dubin, who I've never heard of before. Or Misael Tamarez. That's one thing. Then there's another thing we discovered while we were talking free game. And this is a big deal.

It is something that we're going to change in the model. But he pitches at altitude. And who did DVR? Do you still have those numbers open? Where is he? He's at Reno. And that's. Reno is over 4,000 feet.

It's 4,500. Salt Lake City is 4,200. He's pitched there on the road. And by comparison, let's see if Welsh knows the altitude of the place where he lives. How high is Phoenix? Oh, gosh. I don't. 3,000?

3,000? 3,500? 1,200. 1,200. Okay. So that is a huge difference. And that was something, by the way. And it's also humidor and and enclosed environment yeah conditioned yeah and

i was not aware that everybody else might be but it was something that when we were talking about this i didn't know the effects of what high altitude would take away from stuff and and the interesting thing and you can speak to it you know three of those four starts were at high altitude and the stuff plus was down. One start was at sea level and it was the best stuff plus on the fastball. And I think slider that you, you saw, and I didn't know that it was going to be taking, taken away from altitude. So now we're looking at a high pitch per appearance and, uh, an adjusted altitude on his stuff plus. And it just makes me ruminate more on what is so interesting about Brandon

Fah, who most likely will make his debut this coming week. But wasn't it, was it one Oh two on the fastball in Tacoma and his second start? Yeah. The overall stuff plus was one Oh two in Tacoma and in Reno, he had a 98 and an 88. And in was it Las Vegas or that was a I think it was Salt Lake Salt Lake hit and I

he had an 88 so at all the all the at all the higher altitude places he had a hit a lower number there's some pitch mix changes like in one start he didn't throw the curveball at all so that that always changes your your stuff plus a little bit start to start. But yes, the best fastball he's shown this year was at Tacoma and the best slider. And that does matter because the thinner air, just the way that the seams catch, the way it creates movement, Magnus movement, ride on the fastball, it happens less at, at, uh, at altitude. That's why

people don't throw their fastballs in Coors field because they don't move as much and they just become kind of stinky, you know, fat, straight fat balls, you know? So, uh, he's learning in the, in the worst environment. And there's something we've seen. Even Ryan Nelson, who hasn't quite come together like I'd hoped, but is still puttering along in the big leagues, we've seen other prospects come through their system and struggle. And I kind of think also of Anthony Rizzo coming through the San Diego pipeline and how he hit like a million home runs in El Paso and then came up and couldn't hit a home run in

San Diego and they traded him. And just, and Yonder Alonzo had a similar story too, where it's like, you know, you have to, I think if I was running a team, I would not want extreme minor league environments for my kids.

Try to move them off of it. It's so hard to control that, though. It's like every so often, yeah, the lease comes up and your lease is up too. So you can scramble and try to get a better one. It's always been a game of musical chairs. It'd be a reason that I would want to buy my minor league affiliates. And you want destinations that are close by. Can I just ask before we move off of this?

So at the end of it, I think it's fascinating knowing the altitude stuff. But when you come back and you look at the pitches versus the lower end pitches, the two guys, Brandon Fott and Robert Gasser is another one playing AAA with Milwaukee. He's got a 277 era he's been good but he is down there on stuff plus a 91.9 but he also has 87 pitches per game brennan fought's at 83 is the calculation that you might add five stuff plus to guys that go 80 plus pitches overall or do you think how i mean or is it just you don't even bother with it and you just focus well 55 is more than a reliever so i wouldn't give them the full five can you know conversion right 55 is a lot for a reliever you know 55 pitches you that you'd be like oh that's a long

reliever or something right yeah so maybe it's like three yeah i wouldn't give them the full five um and maybe that's something we can we can more specifically when we altitude adjust and we're poking around the model right now, as we always do. But I might give Fott the full five when you start talking about altitude too. Interesting. So, you know, if you give him the full five, now he's got, you know, kind of like 101 stuff plus. Now he's hanging out and you compare him to people with as many pitches.

Now he's hanging out with Luis Patino. Well, he's got better command than Luis Patino, right? Now he's hanging out with D.L. Hall. He's got better command than D.L. Hall. So if I could give you, if I could sell you on like a D.L. Hall, Luis Patino type with command, I think, you know, those both of those guys have taken a step back. But, you know, that would be very I think that would be very. Was a lot of upside. I think there's still a lot of upside there and, and we will see it in full force most likely within this next five or six days with his start. And it'll be actually fascinating to compare him and Tanner Bybee,

who I was going to say, I think his stuff plus might be getting closer to a Tanner Bybee when you think consider like pitch plus location plus and stuff plus altogether, he might be looking more like a Tanner Bybee out there. And I know that's a big question for so many people right now tanner bybee brandon fought tanner bybee brandon fought everyone wants to know who do you pick if both are starting this week you know are you going with bybee or fought do we have any do we have any buzz on fat there is buzz they just won't make the initial initial announcement i mean dray jameson was option jameson's down he's gone

bum garner's gone and tommy henry just pitched and it wasn't i wouldn't say phenomenal so was did tommy henry pitch on bum garner's day uh he did yeah he took the bum garner day but like was that like was that like was that his like it was that his turn that was his turn as far as i if i can remember if i well i've heard that fought is pitching on the same day so did fought pitch last night fought pitched the day after bum garner so he's like he's like on the same train but he was the day after bum garner so it's close into there but again all things considered henry's numbers aren't loaded yet god i yeah fought last pitch last thursday against salt lake seven scoreless, eight Ks, one walk. I think that's the thing.

Strikeouts have been there. Walks have been fine. That first start where you get the four home runs was a pretty fluky outing. If I'm choosing between just those two, Fott and Bybee, I think I like Bybee even more. I like them both. I think I like Bybee a little bit better. I don't know.

It's also hard to compare these guys to the guys that have already come up too because if they were all available, let's say you had some kind of league where pickups were monthly or something. I'm in one league like that, but it's a keeper league because these guys are mostly rostered. I would think Bradley, Tosh Bradley still won. Then Bybee for me, just a whisker ahead of Fott, potentially. Part of what I'm worried about with Fott right now is the way they've handled Jameson

and the way they've waited to bring him up. It's made me kind of confused as to how sticky his opportunity in the rotation is going to be. With the Guardians, it's kind of easy to see with the major injuries they've got. Oh, that's a good question. What is your rotation if you're running the Guardians? This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App.

There are thousands of classes and over 50 peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning remember doing something is everything rent the peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals all access membership separate terms apply best western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Good night, kids. Good night, Mama. Life's a trip trip make the most of it at best western who would i throw in that rotation like right now like has hunter gattis like like is that his time is up he's back down he's back down i think that that makes sense okay so

so you're you're going it's beaver quantrell Quantrill, when Savali is healthy. Savali. I'm just saying, like, everybody's healthy. Give me everybody's healthy. What's your rotation? Beaver, Quantrill, Savali, Bybee. Bybee and Allen. I think Allen is a lefty in this rotation, I think, is, like, pretty key here.

Yeah, I think Battenfield goes down. I think it's Bybee and Logan Allen. Cleesack has an 81 stuff plus. Probably take Gavin Williams, though, over the number five. If Savali or Quantrill is probably last for me of those guys that you named, I think he'd be the first guy out. He could be the fifth guy, yeah. A little bit of model validation on him, finally.

I was right three years later. Yeah, almost 500 innings in the big leagues, three 63 ERA to one 24 whip this year. It's been a different story so far, which Peyton Battenfield 85 stuff. Plus I think that's, that goes with a scouting report, right?

Like he was not high stuff, just good command. Exactly. I think that's the kind of guy that you pick up that you, that you bring in for a spot start, you know, agreed. I was shocked that he was the first one so alan and bybie have the most staying power i think it's the most important thing for this rotation because it is a bunch of names that are hard to justify

that are actually better than alan or bybie at this point um but battenfield but i don't think i think with tommy hend, you have a similar situation in Arizona. I mean, he had a 6 ERA in AAA last year. I don't want to just use ERA, but 6 ERA in AAA this year, 5 ERA in the majors last year, and even his good season in 2022, he had a below-average strikeout rate. And that's his only good season. Other than

AAA 2022, Tommy Henry in all of his places has an ERA over 6. He's not good. Even with the appropriate the environments are all tough, especially AA and AAA. We just finished talking about that.

We learned about Amarillo's altitude before the show. Much higher than you'd expect. You'd think Texas, probably AA and AAA. We just finished talking about that. We learned about Amarillo's altitude before the show. Much higher than you'd expect, right? You'd think Texas? Probably low. Nope. It's over 3,000 feet. I guess that makes it hard to just put those numbers out there. But still, I mean, he's at the major league level. He hasn't. He's got 51 innings and

a poor strikeout rate and walk rate. The thing I'd go back with, and it's because of me, probably that we talk about Brandon fought so much because the diamondback person, but I also want to, I want to point out though, I think it's important because there's so many people,

me aside that had investments in Brandon fought coming into the year, but check this out. The diamondbacks within the last week have made tough moves. Madison Bumgarner, eat the money, kick the road. See ya. Jake McCarthy wasgarner, eat the money, kick the road. See ya.

Jake McCarthy was sent down to AAA today, which is one of my bold predictions before the season because of his struggles. They're not screwing around and doing the old Lavello stuff. Yeah, McCarthy's sent down. No, no, no, more breaking news. Oh, no. Brandon Fott out for the year traded.

What? This is sad for me. Rays are sending impressive rookie starter toj bradley back to triple a it's it says as part of a transition to a five-day schedule as part of continue he'd been on a six-day schedule so i don't know i think this is temporary it's 10 days it's 10 days dude they're gonna go with Chirinos and Fleming in the meantime? I don't know, dude. That's wildly stupid. I'm hoping this is a 10-day thing.

I do, too. I would hold on to Taj Bradley. But just finishing, the Diamondbacks, even when you go on Roster Resource, there's four pitchers on there, and Tommy Henry is one of those. It's Gallin, Merrill. You've got Ryan Nelson and Tommy Henry. They don't have a fifth starter listed right now. Thebacks have made the critical moves so they might need henry and they might need both of these guys and they have also what i think maybe something you could put

together you know too is like we had that start which was okay and then he could come up and he didn't and he pitched the next day and then what happened the next day he didn't throw the curveball and he saw huge results maybe the dimebacks wanted him to work through a few things to be refined because I don't think it's going to be a turnstile once he's up. Once he's up, he's up. He's not going anywhere. They're going to make the commitment. And I think it's an assurance thing.

There is a spot open there. So that's why I kind of keep pushing the envelope with this because he's got, when he gets that spot, which will be very soon this week, next week, he's going to be there for good. This won't be like a Dre Jameson situation where they're very kind of tepid about maybe trying to get him in the rotation. But I wouldn't have expected that Brandon Fott would be up and Taj Bradley would be down.

Isn't it so hard to figure out how organizations are going to deal with people? I would say, oh yeah, the D-backs, sometimes they seem like they take rookies and just put them in. Alec Thomas, Corbin Carroll, just put them in and play and let them go through some struggles. But then you have Dre Jamison, the same team, where you're just like, what's the plan here? Well, also, they obviously want to stretch him out and get him working as a pitcher. He's better than half of that bullpen right now. He's not better than Jose Ruiz or Peter Solomon is silly.

So he could do that, but they want him to be a part of that rotation. So he's got to work something out. And so maybe he comes back and takes Tommy Henry. I would think so. Long-term that would be it. Yeah. And you can control the schedule for him as a starter on the workloads,

a lot better too. So you send them down for a week or two. Yeah. Okay. Let's dig into this for a minute. It's fresh and frustrating. You know, it's also, Welsh pointed out, he was at 55 pitches per start in the minor leagues.

Although I only have one appearance there. Well, he went okay deep into games, but I think there's a management workload. I don't, what I'm not understanding is we're going to a five, he was on a six day and we're going to a five, so we're sending him down. Is that simply to get some fresh bodies in to help for, you know, what, a week and a half and then bring him back up on a normal schedule?

It's just odd to me. Maybe it's innings management. Yeah, we don't usually see the Rays do that, I don't think. They would piggyback. Usually their move would be like maybe they pitch him two or three innings and they have to be open. Right, like if you're going to use Fleming, then just use Bradley and Fleming. Yeah.

I mean, he's got a 23 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio in 15 and a third innings. He's thrown 78 or more pitches in each of his three starts. He's not going that short. You have a crazy good bullpen. Innings for Taj Bradley, as far as what he threw last year, 133 and a third.

You can go 150. You're going to at least 150, probably more. Maybe you got to save a little bit for the postseason, but you do that stuff around the all-star break. You do that stuff with a break in the schedule. This seems like the Rays being too cute. I get it. They're 20 and three. They can't do anything wrong right now. This doesn't make any sense on the schedule. This seems like the Rays being too cute. I get it. They're 20-3.

They can't do anything wrong right now. This doesn't make any sense on the surface. I'm with you on the hold. I don't think you caught him. There's one thing you have to think about. Yes, you spent a ton of money in fab and waiting a couple of weeks to get him back is really frustrating.

All it takes is one of their seemingly made-of- glass pitchers to be and he's right back up or just horrible performance in the back fleming is a very marginal starting pitcher for a team as good as the rays you know i just i don't understand this they activated jose siri to do this move by the way they activated siri and then they optioned bradley i just don't know if this is a weird corresponding. Maybe it was just like short-term roster flexibility. You know what I'm saying?

Like maybe it was just like, they didn't know. They didn't want to have to release Fleming or cheering us or something. Yeah. There's DFA is that would go in. Maybe they just knew that they could do this. They could option them down for three or four days and figure out what their next move is.

And then who figure out Taylor walls has been playing so well. So, you know, it's like, what do they do? And they don't want to they never want to release anybody they they're like the kings of not wanting to release anybody so maybe it was a roster crunch

they had they had coming and so they just send them down and then you know what's inevitably going to happen is someone's going to get injured on the on the staff and Bradley will come up to replace him it's wild I'm blown away though that this is the move.

I mean, you look at up and down this. They have actually a lot of guys on the roster with options. The only member of their bullpen without minor league options, according to roster resource, is Garrett Clevenger. Every other reliever they have has options left, and they still sent Todd Bradley downadley down that is that's that kills me a little bit because that kind of takes the wind out of my theory nukes a two-star week they've done this to us before i mean we you just don't expect it with the pitchers well especially

when they're three now when they've gotten three and oh in the start of the year pitching really well yeah i don't know What more can you do? So that's the thing. We were just talking about how we'd rank the pitchers. Taj Bradley, obviously, first. Two minutes later, Taj Bradley. That was the plot twist. We got it reversed this time.

It happened in the show. Instead of being called up. Everything we said a few weeks ago when we were comparing him to Simeon Woods Richardson, it's come true, but we didn't expect it to come true because everything that happened in the time since then ah maddening woods richardson um i think embodies all the risks that we're talking about with all these other

players in more aggressive terms like the the twins seem fine with just using him as a spot guy or reliever long reliever like. There's nothing about the way that the twins are treating Simeon Woods Richardson tells me that they have a spot waiting for him. Agreed. Yeah, I think there's a lot of depth there right now. That's part of the problem. They just figure that somebody will get hurt

and he'll come up and replace them and that's it. And they even have an overdoing that too. And Louis Varland. Varland, yeah. Louis Varland's in the top 15 in AAA Stuff Plus. Not good for Woods Richardson, but it's nice that he's doing well himself. I think it's the same sort of problem eventually that Arizona has where you can't keep these guys

stacked up at AAA all year. Eventually you reach a point in the season where there's enough attrition on your big league roster and even if it's in the bullpen, you gotta let some of these guys throw some innings for you in one or two inning stints out of the bullpen because you just need quality and they're your best options but at this point from a long-term development standpoint getting innings every fifth day as a starter is the best way to have 2024 and 2025 you know with normal sort of workload

ceilings i think that's a lot of what's happening right now as well. This is a crazy start to the show. We're 30 minutes in right now, and we've talked about two things on the show. Three things. Well, a lot of theory. We've got a lot of theory in there too. A lot of theory, yeah.

Michael Bush is up right now because Max Muncy is on the paternity list. People are pointing this out on Twitter. Yeah, this is probably short. There was a point at the beginning of the season where I wondered if Michael Bush might actually have a better path to this roster than expected. Part of that was

Muncy, if he didn't bounce back, if they had more problems at shortstop, all the different things. You can move guys around and kind of open up. Well, they've had their problems at shortstop. It's working. Mookie looks like a shortstop out there. But is Michael Bush, is he in this group of positionless bats,

guys that don't defend well enough to really play anywhere? I mean, we saw Edward Julien, we talked about last week, get sent back down by the Twins. He doesn't necessarily have a position to call his own. I wonder if this could be part of the problem for michael bush even beyond you know this seemingly temporary call-up situation what do we do with players like this who look like they can hit enough but don't necessarily have a spot where they can play initially and carve out that role i think you got to put them on like a watch list because i i think that's exactly what michael bush is right

now i think james outman put a wrinkle in a lot of like extra opportunity for somebody's prospect because he's so good and he takes up that roster spot. He's not going anywhere. Miguel Vargas has had some struggles, but I just don't think from a developmental standpoint, they want to do anything. If they did, it actually could and probably would be Michael Bush. He's kind of like a Max Muncy and he can play around the infield. He's played second base. He can play first. His strikeout rate, he's cut dramatically this year. He had a 26% strikeout rate in AAA last year.

It's down to under 19%. He's got a 17-plus percent walk percentage. He's got a 3-4-5 slash so far this year. He had 30-plus homers. I mean, this is the quintessential Dodgers prospect as he's getting a little bit older. He needs opportunity. I think he's way better than like Edwin Rios was back in the day.

Everybody wanted Edwin Rios to be, you know, the next successful and he's going to get time and he hits the ball hard. That's what Michael Bush is in general and he can play around the field. It's just, I don't know where they do it. I don't know where they do it. I think it's going to have to take an injury or kind of a give up like the Dimebacks are doing with McCarthy where they say okay we need to retool Miguel Vargas and try something else then that would open up the spot but there is no other spot and like I said Altman is probably one of the big reasons why they're

not going to have as much experimenting with some of those close to the majors prospects that they usually have and yeah they just don't really have. And even Vargas, I mean, yes, he's struggling, but he's got a 95 WRC plus right now. So he's showing good enough defense and good enough offense to be an eight hitter for the Dodgers, you know. And he gets on base. Right, because of that, you know.

So the big thing that I would say for him is he needs to swing some more. I mean, he's got a Votto-like swing rate, but he's not got Votto-like power. So if you don't swing very often, and then when you do swing, you kind of hit it softly, that's a weird combo. Not a lot of players have really made this work. Usually the guys who don't swing much,

when they do swing, connect for power. I think it might be the thumb, though. The barrel rate in the limited time he's been up this year compared to last season has been cut in half for Miguel Vargas. Average exit velo lagging behind last year. The max isn't great at 108. Hard hit rate 32.6%, down from 40%. Yeah, he's got a great idea of the

zone and part of this was like spring training he was just standing up there just picking pitches really weird might have been the function of the world baseball classic and having only so many players available to play but i wonder if maybe that's why he's not stealing too huh yeah he's really i mean he doesn't want to jam that thumb in the bag or whatever. The way they're using him, he started 10 straight games before his most recent day off. But it was just a pinky, wasn't it? Dumb.

There's something contagious too about like, how bad has that offense been all year? They've been playing from behind. They've been struggling. They've been trying to find their footing. Their leaders in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have gone through these slumps. Sometimes that stuff is kind of contagious,

and then the younger guys in lower parts of the order have to pick that up, and you get injury, and you get just like a team-wide slump if you're not James Altman. I don't know. That might be playing a little bit of a role in it either. I just don't think the Dodgers are giving up on him anytime soon.

So whatever it is, I think that's astute. It might be because of this thumb injury that's continuously carried over. And sometimes, I think like six weeks into the year, that could take quite a while for him to get readjusted. Some other news we should get to. Logan Ohapi out four to six months with a torn labrum. He had surgery. He was off to a really good start. So that's just a bummer

in long-term leagues, short-term leagues. It's even longer for next year. Right. Is he going to be himself coming off that injury? That can be a really big one for position players to come back from. A rough week to be a catcher. Not as severe of an injury for Andy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh, but he's dealing with a forearm strain right now for the Pirates. I think based on how well that team is playing,

he would have been up by now. They could have probably called him up. I'm wondering, are there other Pirates we should be looking at as possible recipients of opportunities to contribute and possibly help them sustain this fast start? Well, you know, just to throw this out, I was going to say, he's a level below, but if the Indies thing drags out, Henry Davis has had a pretty good start to the year.

Henry Davis is out here in the AFL. He's repeating AA, but he's got a 20- start to the year. Henry Davis is out here in the AFL. He's repeating AA, but he's got a 20 plus percent walk rate. He's got the second lowest strikeout percentage of any point in his minor league career. He's hitting 267. He's got four homers, four stolen bases. And, you know, he did so

he was one of the primary catchers out here in Surprise, playing for the Surprise team. And, you know, he's a team leader type of guy. This is a guy that I think could be put right in right now, if they really wanted to go down that route and he could jump Indy Rodriguez. Cause I think the only reason Henry Davis is at double a is because Indy's the triple a guy.

So if there's any stall, Henry Davis is one of those guys that could probably help sooner rather than later. If they felt they needed to go down that route, cause it kind of hot bat right now yeah I think when you look at the way this roster is built having Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutcheon both there kind of covers your first base and DH playing time but if you want to bring Davis up to make him your primary catcher that's an area of weakness for them offensively right now if eventually you know one of those veterans is hurt or not playing very

well, I think you could see Davis and Rodriguez on the roster together. I think they can work as one of the better young catching tandems, sharing time between multiple positions. Because there are people that think that Henry Davis eventually will be something else, not just a catcher. He might play more somewhere else because the bat is actually supposed to be that good, right? The ceiling for what he could do as a hitter might be such that he could just move off catcher and play every single day. Yeah, well, maybe Indy. Indy is athletic enough that he, I mean,

both of these guys could move around in different positions. I tend to think, like, I've watched a ton of Henry Davis, and he's like old school scrappy catcher, guys plowing into him. He's taking pitches, kind of leaning, getting hit a whole bunch. Pretty good arm. I know some people like maybe... Andy Rodriguez's bat, I think, is more explosive. And Andy, I think, plays fine catcher.

But Henry Davis, I feel like, just has that physicality to be a guy that can do that five days a week, just get beat up back there. And I would think Andy Rodriguez would actually be better to play more like a Dalton Varshow row. I don't know if they'll ever do that but he could be a guy that oh that's totally

plausible yeah two or three days catching is useful all around the day yeah maybe dh maybe they play him in the outfield that he may be playing the infield i don't know what that experiment will go that's not henry davis henry davis is not going to move around positions he's going to be your catcher he's a catcher's catcher catcher's catcher it's a good way to put it yeah the the name that i have is is the same name i've always had is luis ortiz and i i'm just waiting on you know the weird thing is for me rich hill's sinker and curve still uh still register as positive really good uh pitches by stuff plus the whole thing doesn't register that well but he he has, for example, two better pitches according to Stuff Plus than Johan Oviedo has at all. And they have similar

overall Stuff Pluses. So that's mind-boggling, mind-bottling to me. I think it's weird that Oviedo is throwing his breaking balls better and getting such good results. And the model still says he doesn't have an above average pitch by Stuff Plus. So I'm closely watching the sort of Rich Hill, Johan Oviedo portion of the Pirates rotation. Because, I mean, you know that I had Vince Velasquez circled as an offseason, you know, guy I would throw three million dollars at because he's always had good stuff. Plus, so I suppose he could just implode like he's always imploded. But somewhere in there, I want an opportunity for Luis Ortiz. I remember listening to an episode of Effectively Wild in the days after Vince Velasquez signed with the Pirates. They were just making fun of the social media posts about Velasquez going there.

And I thought it was kind of a joke signing too. I thought at best they would do what they did with Jose Quintana a year ago, get a few good months out of him as a starter and flip him. Vince Velasquez has always had talent. But so far, it's only been five starts. This is the best Vince Velasquez we've ever seen. If you look at his ERA, his whip, everything, his strikeout per inning stuff is all solid right now. Is this the equivalent of what the Brewers did

by bringing in Brian Anderson on the position player side? Kind of an unheralded move that's actually going to be pretty important just based on the team needs for this season. Well, one other thing I liked about him is he's relieved too. So like, yes, he's a guy who doesn't have options. And so at the end of the line, you may have to release him if it doesn't work out. But at the same time, you give yourself two chances to get a quality pitcher, right? You put him in the rotation. If it doesn't work out, you get another chance. You put him in the bullpen,

you know, and it's not like Bumgarner. i'm sure if you went to bum garner said hey we want to try you in the bullpen you know can you imagine can you imagine i would pay a lot of money to be there for that conversation about how you know a well-renowned madison bum garner who probably takes all criticism very very well probably takes it like i do so i really like uh jared triolo but he's not playing yet must be hurt or something i think you watch out for nick kansas so just throw out too um his strikeout rate is like absurd which has been his problem but he has maintained some batting average it's up over he's supposed to be a bat the ball guy yeah well, I mean, but Nick has had a lot of readjustments.

He hits the ball. When he barrels, it's crazy contact. He did it in the AFL. He's kind of back at it again. They have a lot of investment in him. He does have a double-digit walk percentage. The only thing I think that is keeping him down is he is still striking out at a crazy amount.

And like a lot of guys, the AFL, every pitcher was top of zone. They were just beating fastballs top of zone, and Nick was not able to catch up to it. Yeah, because he's made a vertical bat angle adjustment, so he's got kind of like a steep swing. Yeah, exactly. It's come straight up with huge bat speed. But he is maintaining some batting average. You never know. He's at AAA now. I gonzalez gets some opportunity at some point this year i don't

know if i'd be crazy excited about it because the strikeout rate but like you said the pirates are winning the pirates are gonna try to get live bats in there and henry davis indy rodriguez nick gonzalez those are probably the most likely offensive bats that we see anytime soon i think we should have a segment once every so often, maybe once a week, but maybe like once a month, about a former prospect who became good much later than expected because that would be Vince Velasquez if this holds. And it looks like the big difference is the slider usage

and probably the slider itself. I'm going to guess since everyone's throwing sweepers that we're talking about a Vince Velasquez slider that's not the same shape as it used to be. maybe he picked some of that up for the White Sox last year too I mean he was with the you know in that White Sox um rotation I saw him in spring training a bunch working with guys like Giolito and Kopech and Cease and now you never know what these guys pick up in their stops and pick one guy's ear One guy helps them learn how to throw a pitch a little bit different. There's some pretty smart pitchers,

regardless of the lack of success over in Chicago. There's some pretty smart pitching minds in there that maybe that was the start of some of that big change. It is usage 41.5% slider usage. So far this season, that is a reliever usage. And the most sideways movement on his slider that he's ever had also a pirates thing maybe too because look at oviedo oviedo is succeeding right now and he is more slider than

anything else right now so many guys it's the thing that killed me about dre jameson too throw the slider you know when that slider usage is near that fastball if it's a good slider so many guys are seeing such great success and maybe that's part of the pirates because that's now two guys with heavy heavy slider usage on that team look at this this is actually kind of fun slider usage across the league number one the angels number two the san francisco giants who have been telling all of their prospects in the minor leagues to just throw the slider. Like they have all these guys coming up throwing 50 and 60% sliders. So Giants number two and Pittsburgh number three and White Sox number five. So and Mariners number six.

So that's a fun group. Houston as a progressive organization. Nice to point them out at nine. But the Yankees, on the other hand, down there at 21, and the Dodgers at 24. Who's the lowest slider usage? Not every progressive team has done this.

The Milwaukee Brewers. Hmm. The lowest slider usage of any team. It's not replaced by a lot of sinkers. It's more cutters than anybody. Yeah, Burns throws a ton of cutters. Lowers. Brandon Woodruff's got a great changeup that he's been using a ton.

Lowers throwing the cutter because he's lost Velo. I don't know if that's on part. I mean, Freddie Some of it is just like, who do you have right now? Yeah, I think that's a little bit of it. You would have to pull back and look at the entire org, I think, to have a better sense of philosophy.

Well, that's why the Giants being number two kind of makes sense to me because they definitely have an organizational philosophy on that. Does Matt Whistler have a team? Because he's probably skewing this slider usage for the whole team. 87% slider usage. Yeah, but it's one of the things that's kind of interesting. It's like Robbie Ray never looked that good in Stuff Plus, but he also just threw this flatter a ton.

So it's like sometimes you can just take a slider with a 105 Stuff Plus. Vince Velasquez's slider has a 100 Stuff Plus, but hey, it's your second best pitch. Keep throwing it. Throw it more and more. Let's get to some other questions that I put on the rundown. And this is the section. Three seconds each.

Yeah, you have three seconds through rapid fire. This is usually where the surprise call-ups come from. But I think our surprise was Taj Bradley going down. We said we liked him more than the other pitchers who have all been promoted or about to be promoted recently. Matthew Libertor versus Chase Silseth. Who would you actually rather have stashed right now for leagues only in, well, we could say 2023

only, and then we could separate it if there's a difference for you in keeper and dynasty formats. Who do you think is actually the better stash between Libertor and Silseth? You know, it sounds like you're torn on this one, so I'm going to go to Welsford. Well, Silseth should have a rotation spot

because I've proclaimed the worst pitcher in all of baseball is Jose Suarez, and it's not even remotely close. He is the worst single pitcher. And someone asked me, like, even Patrick Corbin, I would take Patrick Corbin nine out of ten times over Jose Suarez. He is the worst, and that he is not DFA'd by the time we're doing this podcast is crazy to me.

So they cannot put him out there again. That's why Silset is interesting because he should be able to kind of slide into that spot. He's been good. He's got a.9 ERA in the minors and AAA so far, though. 4-1-2 XFIP. The K numbers are there. But I'm intrigued with Matthew Liberatore so I think the move you can make right now is Silseth but long term I actually like Matthew

Liberatore a bit more from like more of a dynasty perspective maybe Silseth will kind of balance it out he is striking out a little bit more but I think his AAA number is a little inflated in his favor but he should get the first opportunity before either one of these guys yeah i don't i'm i i'm almost clicking the neither box oh if we can do that yeah i'm kind of i'm not really that interested in either one of these guys however libertor keeps pushing his arsenal and keeps trying to kind of develop it and has almost gotten to league average stuff plus in the minors he does have decent command and he has a wide enough arsenal that i could see him being a decent back-end pitcher for st louis and uh being usable at home and uh and sometimes on the road

um so i guess my my answer is libertor because of the park almost more than anything. Yeah, I think I'd go Libertor as well. But I think Silsith is someone that people might be sleeping on, a lot of S's, after the disappointing arrival last year. Seven starts last year for a 6.59 ERA and a 1.57 whip. Guys like that get written off. And I think the numbers in the minors at AA last year especially were really encouraging. Arsenal's not that bad. I don't think the control's a problem.

That should be good enough for him to stick, and I'm with you, Welsh. I think Suarez is one of the worst pitchers in a starting rotation right now, so that can't last. I was looking at his career splits in the bullpen. They're not great. You'd think, oh, a 25-year-old lefty just moving to the bullpen. He'll be fine there.

He'll get some chances there for the Angels, but he's out of options. So maybe a month from now we're talking about Jose Suarez as someone that is, in fact, looking for a new organization. The broadcast was like, oh, I don't know what we do with him. He's out of options. Someone might pick him up. And I'm like, who would pick up Jose Suarez? You said bad numbers out of the bullpen, one of the worst starting. I think he's DFA'd.

He's not claimed. And they can just send him down and get him off the 40 man and i don't know why you would be worrying like oh we missed him we didn't get like i don't understand why he is so insanely bad it's mind-boggling that the angels are doing this to themselves i recommend having um uh the full when you if you're looking at stuff plus i recommend having the full – if you're looking at Stuff Plus, I recommend having the full page open on Fangraphs where it has – if you just click on Stuff Plus, it gives you the Stuff Plus of all their pitches because Suarez has a 97 Stuff Plus, 90 location. So, yes, it says he's bad in aggregate.

But with the 97 Stuff Plus, you'd say, oh, the breaking balls are still good. The fastballs are both under 90 Stuff Plus. And this is something that came up yesterday when we were talking about Maeda. It's like, yes, if you look at the overall Stuff Plus, you think, okay, this guy's all right. But there probably is a moment where the fastball just falls below usability. Second inning. It's the second inning. It's always the second inning and it's the second inning it's always the second inning look where he throws it i meant like a threshold and stuff plus but yes

some of these guys in the second inning can't get past the second inning and unfortunately in this game i think you still need to throw the the fastball so So even as much as we're talking here about throwing slider more and more, I think, you know, I'd be very suspect of a pitcher with a lower than 90 fastball stuff plus. I'd be skeptical of anyone who throws their fastballs there. If you're watching us on YouTube, look at that. Look at that fried egg right in the middle of the pan. Well, that's the 90 location plus.

He centered that up right on the griddle, right in the middle of the griddle. Got room for bacon in there. Quick starters. Bad fastball search. Here we go. Look where he throws his sliders and change them. Everything in the middle of the zone. Yeah, I could have told you without seeing.

Cinder guard. It's crazy. Freeland. Everything's in there. It's not just just a few mistakes. He's made mistakes, and every time he's made a mistake, hitters have just destroyed it. It's that he's just repeatedly in the exact wrong part of his own.

Insanity. He is the definition of insanity. And five homers in his last start, just down the middle. It'll work this time. Nope, it's gone. Nope, it's gone every single time this war is. It's gone. Nope, it's gone every single time this war is. It's crazy. I mean, the math

in me says locations aren't sticky, but that's a pretty amazing feature. That looks sticky to me. Looks like there's a magnet. There's a magnet in the zone and it's just pulling the ball. Yeah, why is he throwing it there? How about a Baltimore

edition of a Would Youyou-rather? We'll go to the position player side. Jordan Westberg versus Connor Norby versus also Joey Ortiz at the request of one Chris Welsh. I'll throw this to Eno first because I know Welsh has a lot to say. I think that Ortiz is going to end up third on all of our lists, and maybe that's fair, but I will point out that he had the hardest third on all of our lists. Um, and maybe that's fair, but, uh,

I will point out that he had the hardest hard hit rate of the three, uh, on rotor wire. And he's combining that hard hit rate with a 17.9% strikeout rate. So maybe Joey Ortiz ahead of Norby. Uh, are we going to be consensus Westberg first? I think like Westberg, I think is the most exciting of all of it.

And he's hitting again. I think he is kind of the top guy, but, but I think that's more of a long-term thing. I legit think Joey Ortiz is actually the guy that could get the call up first. He's also almost 25 years old. Her hit numbers are through the roof. If they're looking at it, you got to see if you've got something there first, right?

Yeah. That's what I think it is. So, I mean, you've got Westberg, you've got Norby. They're younger. I mean,

I guess Westbrook just turned 24 as well, but you got low strikeout rates, high batting average last year. Uh, Joey Ortiz hit 19 homers, still 18 bases. He's hitting the ball really hard. Good defensively.

I think he actually could get the first stab at the whole thing. But long-term for the season, I go Westberg, Ortiz, and I just don't know where Norby quite fits yet. Well, part of the problem for Norby is that Jorge Mateo's playing so well that either you are sending Gunnar back down, which I don't think it's to that point yet, or pushing Frazier to the outfield some and just putting somebody at second. In which case, I would say they put Joey Ortiz at second because Westberg is their shortstop.

I could buy. I buy all of that. Do you call up Westberg and put him at second? I think they could do that. I don't think that's out of character with it, but he has been a shortstop. He played at college with Justin Foscue, who was more of a second baseman for them, so a shortstop has been his spot.

That might be the play. Yeah, you might have that. It might be Joey Ortiz is more the super-utiler, goes to second. Westberg ends up being the shortstop. That leaves Norby in a weird spot. But the original thing you said is, I think the Orioles will look at this as,

this is a guy that doesn't hurt them. They need to see what they have in Joey Ortiz. And does he have a role long-term where Westberg and Norby are probably just a step behind? It might be better offensive options. Jorge Mateo, though. Minus one outs above average. Don't go down that rabbit hole again. Just take your medicine with Mateo, though, minus one outs above average. Don't go down that rabbit hole again. Just take your medicine with Mateo.

Don't do it. Here's the thing the Orioles are going to do. This is what I think they're going to do. Where do you play Mateo if not shortstop? In the outfield. Yeah, you can play the outfield if you want to put him out there. You're going to have Mullins and Mateo in the outfield? It's fast.

Orioles are 15-7 right now. Every team in the AL East is 500 or better, entering play on Tuesday. Orioles have a large number of major league-ready prospects, or very close to it, right? You can't play all these guys. That's what I'm saying. How did the puzzle fit?

It's trade. I think it's a first-half trade. If you're the Orioles, you've been waiting a long time for this. Trade Mateo? For what? Rotation? Bullpen? What are they going for? Rotation. Yeah. Get an impact starter. I think

the question is going to be, which impact starters are actually available? I think the Orioles, they can sort of shop off the secret menu. They can go to a team and make more compelling offers because of their depth. To someone you didn't think was available. Maybe, how about this?

What about go to the Reds and get Graham Ashcraft? Get his stuff plus with the Orioles. That team is trash. They're losing games left and right, and they make a move. The Reds, yeah. I mean, maybe even Lodolo, because one thing that's interesting about lodolo is that

uh he switched over to his four seam as his primary and it's made his curve play down which is the worst thing you can do with that 40 plus percent whiff rate 46 i think last year just some crazy whiff rate on that curveball and it's down crazy it's not like 20 yeah i think i think it's because he's kind of switched over to his four seam so make him more of a sinker curve guy again um you know and maybe the reds are souring on the dolo reds are trying to extend to think that yeah i mean it's interesting to think that maybe the reds could make a pitcher available for a position player uh the guardians seem pretty stacked with pitching and always seem you know like they might be willing to trade a pitcher for... They got Rokio, though.

The problem is they got Rokio and Freeman that are replacements to guys like Rezar. That's the goofy thing. Also, the Reds have a bunch of position players. They're not really looking for a shortstop. Yeah, finding the right mix. You know who needs a shortstop? Who really needs a shortstop and always has pitching? The Marlins. The Marlins need to hook up with the Orioles on a trade. They do need a shortstop. Yeah, finding the right mix. You know who needs a shortstop? Who really needs a shortstop and always has pitching? The

Marlins. The Marlins need to hook up with the Orioles on a trade. They do need a shortstop. But we've traded away Marlins pitchers. What is that? Is that Edward Cabrera? They do do it actually. Who gets moved? Cabrera? Ooh, Cabrera would be spicy. Yeah, Cabrera. Could you do Cabrera straight up for one of these

blocked Orioles infielders? It'd probably have to be like a Westberg. Maybe it's like a Westberg and something for Cabrera. Maybe they have to do Kauser and Westberg for Cabrera and something. I mean, that might be too much. Mateo's too much of a pop-up prospect to do this. Mateo's just, I mean... What about Mateo and like a other package?

I just don't think a team is trading for Mateo seeing him as... Like even what we said yesterday about the Orioles having this win by giving him this opportunity and having him get to this point, I don't think a team swoops in and says, we want the next three years of that. I think the Orioles want a... The Marlins rather want a

prototypical, long-term, big-time shortstop. Six years. Yes, I think that's what they want if they're going to make a trade like that. Maybe trade Joey Ortiz and Keith Westberg. Yeah, but see, that might not be the move. They probably have to be Westberg for Cabrera. And then you know what that does too?

Yuri Perez. Yuri Perez could maybe start popping up. That's a pretty good mix there, the Marlins and the Orioles for a move. Joey Ortiz for Braxton Garrett? I think that's one you could make. I think that's something you could make. And you could do that in season.

If you're the Marlins, you're not waving the white flag. Yeah, Rodgers hurt right now. Lizardo, they want to keep him. Lizardo's not going anywhere. Are you sure? Braxton Garrett seems very tradable. Yeah, but I wouldn't trade for him and think that I was getting a ton.

You guys are talking about an impact rotation piece. Braxton Garrett is not that. I mean, Cabrera might be actually Braxton Garrett. If you, if you were going to trade Jorge Mateo, that's probably the best sort of picture you're going to get as a pitcher,

like Braxton Garrett. Maybe that's worth doing. Maybe you want to keep the kids and, and I would try maybe Joey Ortiz for Jesus. But there is a, there is a injury sort of question mark around Jesus Lozada. Yep, it's always kind of been floated in there. We had a question about an Orioles prospect.

This came from Wes in the OC. Heston Sherstad, I believe, is the correct pronunciation. He's good too, dude. He's so good. Oh, is that? You changed the pronunciation. I thought it was Kerstad. I thought it was Sherstad. It was Kerstad in the Arizona Fall League, but I'm not going to make arguments against you guys with your bigger brains,

but Kerstad is what they would keep saying. I think it's Kerstad then. That's what they were saying in the Fall League. I've got friends that must be pronouncing their own last names wrong, which is possible. It's Scandinavian names all over in the Midwest. Anyway, Kerstad is another prospect that is putting up big numbers for the Orioles.

I think he, the question is basically, is there something we don't know about him? Is he just delayed height because he was sick last year and started slow? And what does MLB come? He had a heart problem. I think it was COVID and then heart. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Hamstring injury last year cost them some time. So it's been a, it's been a rough go for Kirsten. So he looked so good in the fall. Yeah. I mean,

I I'm a huge fan. I went aggressive after the fall. Again, I know it's very dangerous to do and people are like, Ooh, you know, falling numbers, but like you got to see him on display and he has an explosive bat.

He can turn, he hit for the cycle. He actually was the first time I've ever seen this, him and Cal Con he hit for the cycle he actually was the first time i've ever seen this him and cal conley hit for the cycle in the same game together uh which was just like this wild feat uh he had five homers last year um he had six homers to lead the way i believe in the arizona fall league him and mervis i think were up there he won the mvp in the arizona fall league he's back here in double a now five homers, three stolen bases. He's a lowered his strikeout percentage to 20%. He was getting beat on low stuff that he's fixing that. And he's playing some first base right now for this team. I think he's one of the best kept secrets, um,

with a crazy, crazy offensive explosive bat for a guy that can move around. He's just had injury stuff and people haven't seen enough of him, But the top pick has been playing it out, and I moved him aggressively up my ranks when most didn't want to, and maybe it won't work out. But he's fixed a lot of the quirks that we saw from the Arizona Fall League, which were the problem, and he was the best player MVP in the Fall League last year. So I'm a big buyer on Kirsten, and I love the first base potential.

Yeah. A couple different ways he could fit into the equation there, and that's definitely a position that I think is up for grabs in the near future for the Orioles as well. He could hit his way into that, and I think part of it, as far as why he's ranked low a lot of places, is that lost time.

Maybe based on defensive value not playing up the middle, that's an uphill battle for a lot of prospects as well, but if he continues to hit with the improvements that Welsh was describing, probably a guy that cruises into top 100s where he's not already a part of that group. Yet another. And I got a ton of video if anyone wants to see on my Twitter.

You can go to my Twitter handle on the mobile you can usually search. And you can go and look. And there's just, it's one, it's a gorgeous swing. It's a gorgeous swing. I think I have a couple homers in there. I might have one of the cycle plays, the homer from the cycle in there so go and check it out if you want to go watch some swings um you know from my my vantage point and i've got a confirmation it is kirstad in the pronunciation guide so there we go that is that is the way to go but second base is uh

is more for the taking i think so yeah yeah great Yeah, great. We're going to see my guess here. One, two, three. Your guess for who comes up to play second base at the Orioles. One, two, three. Joy Ortiz. Westbrook. So it's clearly going to be Connor Norby, by the way. So everybody go pick up Connor Norby.

He's getting called up 12 minutes after this show. I thought Norby was an outfielder. No, he's second base. You got to think he can play outfield in second base. They got a lot of guys that can play a bunch of spots like tons of flexibility norby might have just moved by the way he was a second baseman i'm going to look uh yeah he's still listed as a second baseman i think still playing there on fan graph so um he's still at that spot all right jackson holiday already in high a by the way that's one of the other crazy o's related items to throw on the rundown.

Everything's coming up O's. Sure is. Hope they make some moves. Hope they get some reinforcements on this roster and make this fast start meaningful by getting even better. Spend some money. Maybe that'll be the ticket. Somebody that's actually expensive that we didn't think was available.

Yeah. Well, we'll see. They can take on money if there's anyone with a contract that someone's looking to unload. You know what maybe people could do? Maybe people could go to the YouTube channel right here on the athletic rates and barrels

and they could comment under this video with the trades that they think we could see. I think that would be a good way. So subscribe and do it. Yeah, get us some speculative trades for the Orioles to make. Realistic speculative trades. Hit the like button. Be sure to subscribe to this channel. If you don't already do that on YouTube,

you can find Welsh on Twitter at IsItTheWelsh. You can find Eno at EnoSaras. You can find me at DerekVanRiper. If you need a subscription to The Athletic, it's a dollar a month for the first year at TheAthletic.com slash Rates and Barrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. Bye-bye.