Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - Big Promotions and Dynasty Risers

Episode Date: June 20, 2023

DVR, Eno and Welsh get breaking news as the show starts that Gavin Williams is being called up to start on Wednesday. We also take a look at Emmet Sheehan's debut, Henry Davis vs Bo Naylor and Welsh's updated Dynasty ranks. Rundown Gavin Williams called up - 0:50 Bo Naylor is back - 6:41 Henry Davis vs Bo Naylor - 11:34 Emmet Sheehan - 20:55 Dynasty Rank changes - 32:01 Pitchers lower in dynasty - 40:56 Jarred Kelenic in dynasty - 45:08 Minor league stat and development problems - 51:27 Grayson Rodriguez - 59:02 Jose Miranda - 1:00:00 Vaughn Grissom - 1:02:11 Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to The Athletic for just $1/mo for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Check out these offers from our ad partners.... Head to factormeals.com/rates50 and use code rates50 to get 50% off your first box Right now, you can try LinkedIn Sales Navigator and get a sixty-day free trial at linkedin.com/rates23 Right now, Nuts.com is offering new customers a free gift with purchase and free shipping on orders of $29 or more at Nuts.com/rates Go to zbiotics.com/rates to get 15% off your first order when you use RATES at checkout. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It is Tuesday, June 20th. Derek Van Ryper, Ian Osiris, Chris Welsh all here. It's Project Prospect on this episode. We have breaking news of another prospect coming up this week. We have promotions that have happened since we last spoke. We have a new set of Dynasty rankings up on The Athletic from Mr. Chris Welsh. So we'll talk about a few big movers on that list. We had some mailbag questions about players that have been demoted to AAA this year

and what they've been doing while they're down there and what the future might look like for them. So a lot of ground to cover. And gentlemen, as we got started today, we learned that Gavin Williams is the latest prospect who's going to come up and make a big league debut. Wednesday appears to be the day for the Guardians as they continue to push chips in for this season. And this is exciting because they've already brought up Tanner Bybee.

They've already brought up Logan Allen. Both Bybee and Allen are very good young pitchers. And there's a very good chance that Gavin Williams could be the best of that entire trio. So we have one more excellent young pitcher on the way in Cleveland Welsh. I'll start with you. Expectations for Williams relative to this amazing rookie class of pitchers that just keeps growing by the week. Pretty high. That's the little unfortunate thing is like, how do we not have really, really high expectations for any of these guys at this point?

I mean, even Brian Wu is coming up and getting big strikeout numbers and performing well and not to undertake his value or anything like that. But preseason conversation, Brian Wu wasn't at the top of the list of the pitchers that we were losing our minds about. But I think we're in a pretty high spot, though. I think we do come back to the same conversation we always do about what type of innings, you know, on the heels of Uri Perez and actually Uri Perez staying in the rotation. You know, how much of a run can he get? Well, in 115 innings, he pitched last year between two levels. He's right around 60 this year. So if we're giving more, there's actually a pretty decent chance that Gavin Williams is going to be able to stick around and be significant in that rotation. Gavin Williams has got a great fastball. He's got a good slider, a good curveball. He can get the change up in their big strikeout option. He hasn't been going crazy deep into games, but he moved off a double A to triple A pretty quickly here. And the strikeouts

walks, they've been a little bit adjusting, but over his last four or five starts, four of the five, he's gone at least five innings. So I got pretty big expectations because I think he's going to pound the zone. I think he's gonna rack up some strikeouts. I hope he can go deep into games, but I think Gavin Williams instantly jumps into that upper echelon tier of the Taj Bradleys, the Uri Perez's as far as talent goes. And arguably, I guess I'd have to go back and look. I think he might have the most innings pitch last year of any of these guys. It's over 115, at least his top crew of players.

Obviously, you know, the failed Brandon Fott had a whole bunch more innings, but Gavin Williams got a significant chance to put up some big innings this year, and he belongs at the top of the heap. And I'm very excited to hear what Eno is going to spout to us on some stuff plus and everything, because I'm pretty stoked about this. And this needed to be a preemptive move, by the way. So God willing, if you are going to get into the pool now, but I definitely been trying to preach it.

If you were able to get in early, this felt like it was coming especially after the mckinsey injury so hopefully you did but what say you eno uh minimum 150 pitches and 50 pitches per appearance in in triple a this year it goes bobby miller tyler glass now gavin williams uh by stuff plus uh being anywhere in the conversation with Tyler Glass now and Stuff Plus is a good place. Per pitch, the fastball looks outstanding. The slider looks above average. The changeup, he only threw 36

in the last sample that I have of the changeup, but it had 131 Stuff Plus. So also some pretty poor command numbers so i guess what we would see is more fastball sliders and curves and only the occasional change when he's ahead maybe in two strike counts uh to lefties or whatever so i i doubt uh we'll see a ton of change ups with that command number on it but it's nice to know that he has a high stuff change that'll be in his back pocket. But one of the reasons that I like him is that I'm trending towards having more confidence in the fastball stuff plus number and more confidence in pitchers with good fastballs

in the beginning of their careers. So, you know, Bryce Miller is obviously someone who's a little bit flawed, you know, in terms of his secondaries and how fastball heavy he is. Taj Bradley, you know, his secondaries don't leap off the page, at least by Stuff Plus. He's a fastball first guy. Bobby Miller is in some ways a fastball first guy. All these guys have had really good success. You know, you know, if you have a really great fastball, the rest of it will fall into place,

I think. And so I'm pretty excited. And also in just throwing in his last start, he had on the 14th, he was 60% fastball with a 20% whiff rate, 23% CSW, 20% slider, much worse whiff rate, but a good 29% CSW, curveball 17% of the time, and then just threw in a couple occasional changeups. Best strikeout pitch was his curveball in that last outing with the best CSW percentage. So it was primary fastball, but a 37% usage between the slider and the curveball, which are two solid, if not, you know, plus pitches, especially the, uh, the slider in there. So big fastball, as long as the command is there with the secondaries, you know, I don't, I don't know what side we're going to get. Are we going to get the eight, nine strikeout, you know, Brian

Wu type of thing? Are we going to get an efficient Emmett Sheehan type of performance where the strikeouts are down because he's trying to be efficient? Either way, this is a top guy, good stuff plus, and those numbers look good. I'm excited about it because the debut against the A's. The A's offense hasn't been as bad as some of us expected coming into the season, but it's a nice soft landing spot for that Gavin Williams debut.

Good opportunity for the Guardians to put a little extra pressure on the Twins as they enter Tuesday. Two games back in the AL Central. Twins one game below.500. I love that the Guardians are finally bringing Bo Naylor back into the fold, too. They DFA'd Mike Zanino last week. Naylor's back in the equation. I think there's a chance Naylor can be at least the two-thirds share starter behind the plate.

Maybe even a tick more than that. The numbers at AAA going back to last season were excellent. This is a guy that really kind of put himself back on the map with what he did in 2022. He opened last season at AA, ended up finishing the year with a longer run in Columbus, spent almost as much time there this year. 28 combined home runs at AAA between this year and last year.

11 for 14 as a base stealer, good OBPs. I think he's the kind of player that is going to be a little bit light in batting average. It's a lot of fly balls, so there's going to be some downside there, but he was doing enough damage when he put it in the air to where I think you could see a pretty good floor right away. So I think Naylor actually has relevance in single catcher leagues because I think the playing time is actually going to be enough for him to make a dent right away. He's right on the outside of the top 10,

like 15, like 15 team league, or would you even go to 12? Cause I'm not so sure. I mean, I see where you're going with that because I look a big like EVs and you get the ball in the air with big, I mean,

those Naylor kids are built different. Josh, him, their brother, miles. I should be seeing tomorrow at the MLB draft combine. When I go believe he's here. I mean,

they are built different. So I think that recipe works well, plus really good walk percentages. But I mean, is that a tough nut to crack to get into the top 15? Like who are those bottom catchers that you would rather speculate on Naylor over yes if you're looking right now if you're if you're sitting there with someone who shares a role in Travis Darnot shares a lot of time right so I think Naylor versus Darnot

becomes interesting Alejandro Kirk's on the aisle now he's having a down year he's probably going to come up in our our dynasty movers as a faller for this year. Cambridge Ruiz, if you're trying to squeeze value out of him, he'll play a lot more than Naylor or can play a lot more than Naylor. But I think the skills here play up quite a bit. And I'm always willing to take a little less playing time behind the plate if I can get that boost in skills. And I think with Naylor, the lines are at that point where that's a gamble we're taking. with Naylor, the lines are at that point where that's a gamble we're taking. Also, we have to probably acknowledge that part of this move has got to be about the inefficiency in that Cleveland offense. It is Ramirez, and then you cross your finger, and Naylor has kind of been good, but you

got to pray that Andres Jimenez is doing something, or Rosario. And it's missing power. Exactly. It's missing impactful offense and the power has been pretty deficient that this is like a clear move. This is a clear move for them to get more power built into that lineup. So to your point, you might get more playing time than we acknowledge. I've seen him play other positions. I kind of wonder if they don't think they need to here, if they would at some point even experiment getting him in some other spots as far as making sure playing time is there but okay yeah you know what those names you mentioned

it's probably a pretty good case why he could be in the 15. The thing that fascinates me about Naylor is that I don't have a good sense of how much he'll strike out and neither do the projection systems he ranges from 24 to to 30% strikeout rate. I don't know. Normally, even with prospects, I feel like we see a more narrow band between those things. You know, that's like 24% is, oh, that's a guy who could hit 260, 270, you know, if he hits the ball hard and is fast enough to take advantage of that. 30%, you see that Zips projection of a 207 batting average, and you understand there's 30% strikeout rate.

And looking through his minor league stops, like his first stop at AA, 31.5% strikeout rate with a 12.8 swing strike rate. Since then, it's been a lot better, and the swing strike rate has with a 12.8 swinging strike rate since then it's been a lot better and the swinging strike rate has been a lot better so i mean i'm assuming that most of these projection systems put swinging strike rate in as a feature in their projection systems but i would also assume that certain projections weigh that more heavily than others because that's i think the one of the big sources of the difference here if you look at post uh 2021 uh nailer has kept his swing strike rate under 10 percent and his strikeout rate has been closer to 21 22 overall so uh you know that's the thing i'm

watching most of all because i think the difference between 30% and 24% is 30% is he's one of those catchers. He's just like one of those guys who's going to hit 225, maybe hit 18 homers. I don't know. He's just a guy. But at 24%, that's a big difference. I wonder, and this is probably going to be a transition that I'm stealing, but I think this question of Bo Naylor is also maybe tied to Henry Davis, who made his debut. And he's going to qualify, obviously, as a catcher, though he's coming up and he's going to play right field. And Henry Davis has always had this really interesting profile because he steals bases. He's a raw power guy, like Gloveless back in the Louisville days, I mean, he can absolutely crank homers out. He definitely has a swing and miss issue that, kind of to your point, I kind of agree with you. I tend to decide that Bo Naylor is going to have more of a strikeout problem, but he's maybe positively inconsistent.

You don't really have a great gauge. I do have a gauge that Henry Davis is going be like a 25% strikeout type of guy. He'll walk some, but he's got great power. He also can steal. He's going to play more now that he's getting some added versatility. So I lean, if I was asking me, Henry Davis versus Bo Naylor. Who's going to strike out more? I'm going to lean that I want to bet on Henry Davis for the rest of the year, because I think categorically he might add a little bit more.

I think the strikeouts could be similar. And he just with the position flexibility, if I'm in that 15 team and I'm moving off of a Travis Darnot and it's, hey, which one do I pick? I think I'm going to go with Henry Davis over Bo Naylor, but I don't know if you guys feel different about it. Yeah, I think I'm with you on Davis over Naylor. I think just the fact that he debuted in right field that gives you that extra wide range for playing time that kind of puts them in there as a possible everyday guy. That's an edge.

I think I trust the power even a tick more with Davis than I do with Naylor. The swing and miss concerns seem somewhat equal in the short term. If you're talking keeper and dynasty, that's a totally different conversation. Davis' swing strike rates have been pretty up and down. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze,

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FedEx, where now meets next. Fit some injuries. There's not as much of a pattern for Naylor. You know, Davis is, you know, 2023 AA 7%, 2023 AAA 10.9% swing strike rate. So it's a little bit up and down. Like, again, I don't... Strikeout rate is, like, one of those things

that I think is super important and really hard to know ahead of time. Yeah, I was looking back at some of the best rookie catcher performances from the last five seasons or so. Not surprisingly, Adley Rutchman last year. Just in terms of volume of playing time and overall value that's the best rookie catching performance we've seen since 2018 it's not even that close I'm out on that out on them I mean catchers debut later their offense peaks later like they're

normally bad picks but uh Rutschman has has been against that rule. And his swing strike rates were very good in the minor leagues, especially for a catcher. Yeah, very, very polished hitter as he came into the league. We're seeing with Francisco Alvarez right now. Alvarez is providing a lot of value, but it's coming with the swing and miss that we thought could be a concern. It's, in the end, good at the position, and it's a flawed performance that will need to change over time if Francisco

Alvarez is going to reach his true talent ceiling right but given his age it seems like it's still a profile you'd be more likely to bet on than not but I would choose Davis over Naylor if I was in a single catcher league scenario trying to decide which one's more valuable I think the the way they're being used initially is part of the reason why and i think davis from a just a pure hitting perspective has that higher ceiling i think that's been the case since we found out who each of these guys was like that that was that's the truth the entire time you know do you feel different you feel because i feel like you were wavering of like maybe the strikeout issues are not as much of a problem of Bo Naylor. Maybe you feel more confident in Naylor.

Yeah, I would say that I might feel less confident than consensus on both of these guys. Yeah, that's fair. That's fair on both of these guys. It's funny to have a 70 power guy and then the the the best max ev we have on record is 109 a 70 raw power for henry davis but it's 49 plate appearances so yeah he's he's interesting talent had the chance yet yeah in the afl i mean he's a he's a scrappy catcher guy too 55 pull rates for henry davisly. See, I wonder when you see something extreme like that for a player that you don't really expect to do that in

the long run, how much of that is Henry Davis just trying to mash his way through the minor leagues as quickly as possible? Just saying like, hey, the best thing I can do is hit homers. If I hit homers, I'm going to move through quicker. I'll show the rest of my approach later when I have to. But now I'm just going to put on the gas

and try to yank everything. Or is it a problem? He hit.207 in AA last year with a 54% pull rate. I didn't see that in the AFL. I watched a decent amount of Henry Davis. I didn't see

really intense. I actually saw him going center field a decent amount. I should probably go back and look at some of the video. I felt like it was more contact approach than it was. Because you get some guys. He was on a team. I think he was on the same team with Highland Ortiz with the Phillies. And that's a guy that is like monster pull, bat flip, hit it 450 feet type of guy.

Where Henry Davis had a much more concerted approach and I was saying like kind of a scrappy catcher like he definitely got hit a whole bunch you know he would kind of lean into a pitch and I saw a lot more of a life so is he a guy who crowds the plate and tries to pull even pitches that are out over the plate yeah yeah and he's got kind of like a lower end stance too and uh just kind of a bully on the ball but i saw him going um up the field a decent amount and maybe that was part of just uh pitch recognition and becoming a better hitter and hilariously he's doing the thing that we thought indy rodriguez was going to do and i think you know you started going into the field

yeah you started the season i think well i think delay has a main i mean that meant a lot to that organization uh what do you think the jason delay oh jason delay i was like what delaying service time what do you mean no no just uh he like i don't think he's necessarily as good as he is right now but i think that he's a quality you know he's just like a major league catcher you know yeah well fine but the the unique thing is like okay you have that does this mean that they are going to build andy rodriguez as the catcher and they're already making the move for henry davis to be out there like what because the bet would have been andy rodriguez comes up

he's the catcher or he he's the guy that's going to move around the field but he comes up first and then henry davis follows behind and is maybe the secondary catcher and now henry davis has jumped over him because of some of the struggles. And he's not even in that catcher spot. I just, I guess I'm just talking into the clouds of like, I just don't know what that means. This is a sign.

I think this is a sign that Andy Rodriguez is catching well in the minor leagues right now. And then he's the guy and he'll, it'll be delay in him. He's the next catcher. And Henry Davis can play as the third catcher. Isn't it? I mean,

the first day that Henry Davis played in the big leagues, he played in the outfield. Yeah. Yeah, they could play in the first base eventually too. I mean, Carlos Santana is there on a one-year deal. He's 37 years old. That spot is wide open. Davis should hit enough to take that spot.

We did have a mailbag question about Andy Rodriguez. Short term, I don't think it changes a whole lot for him. He had that wrist injury earlier in the year at AAA. Looking at the numbers, you sort of wonder if he's all the way back from that or if he's got some lingering effects of that. Long-term, he's going to play in the big leagues because of his versatility. He's very athletic, so there's still a lot to like there. It almost seems like a relative buy-low opportunity.

We're kind of in that mid-season point where people are shuffling rosters in long-term leagues. Andy Rodriguez is more the kind of player I'd want to be getting back in a trade than somebody I'd be trying to trade away right now. Yeah, low strikeout rates to walking. It was a good catch on the Carlos Santana thing. I think he's a possible DFA candidate. Oh, they just get out and Henry goes to first? Right now, he's a 108 WRC plus against lefties.

And I think that's probably keeping him on the roster. But it's mostly Babbitt and fewer strikeouts. But he still has a 127 ISO against lefties and a 108 WRC plus for Carlos Santana against, uh, as a first baseman against one handedness and below average against the other is that's pretty borderline. You know what I'm saying? So if they ever sort of youth movement or whatever,

like one year deal veteran, let them go and see if he can jump on somewhere else. I don't know. I, I could see Henry Davis being the starting first baseman by the end of the season, I guess. Yeah, it's definitely possible. Santana hasn't shown enough to guarantee

that he keeps that roster spot all season. A couple of hard-hit balls in that debut from Henry Davis on Monday night. Got his first big league hit, drew a walk. A little weird to see him hitting behind Connor Joe and Santana and Cabrian Hayes and Rodolfo Castro. Some teams break players in that way. I don't expect that to last long.

I think part of the not everybody is the Reds. DDR. They don't know. They can't all hit to come up to the majors. High level concept, really high level concept to have, you know, the guy you brought up who's better than the guys that have been in your roster to hit him higher in the order and try to max out those plate appearances. But hey, what can you do? Let's get to Emmett Sheehan. roster to hit him higher in the order and try to max out those those plate appearances but hey yeah what can you do let's get to emmett sheehan six no hit innings in his big league debut on friday against the giants uh my nitpicking jerk footnote only three strikeouts only four swinging strikes

i think that's probably the bigger concern that giants lineup getting better getting healthier tougher matchup than it was earlier on this season. We saw the four seamer. We saw a changeup. We saw a slider. Heavy, heavy four seamer usage. Almost 70% maxed out at 98.1. Average 95.8 on that pitch. Changeup through 17% of the time.

Slider 15% of the time. The CSW easily the best on the slider at 31% in the debut. So for a guy that was just destroying the minor leagues what were your first impressions of emmett sheehan and the big leagues you know he's uh he's funky uh he he releases it from a low spot so if you look at something like brooks baseball and you see he only has eight inches of vertical movement uh that doesn't capture all of uh emmett sheehan's uh yeah it's from like here yeah it's a it's a you know for example it's six inches lower release point than bobby miller but the same uh amount of brooks baseball vertical movement uh but when you look at a stat called IVB,

that vertical break does include a sense of where the release point is. So I was hoping to go on, if you want a place to look that up, Alex Chamberlain's pitch leader boards has IVB. That's the best place to find that. And he doesn't have Sheehan in there for some reason. I don't know why. So anyway, I found a reference saying that Sheehan has 18 inches of IVB, where I know that Bobby Miller has more like 16 inches. And that's what a six inches of release point difference can be.

You know what I mean? So even though by one metric they have the same amount of vertical movement, because Sheehan is releasing at six inches lower, it's a different angle. You can just imagine that in your head. If these two have the same raw movement, but one's coming from here, it's going to be like this, and the one's coming here is going to be more like that. So the plane changes. So so he's very interesting plane uh if he does in fact have 18 inches of uh of ivb then you

know that's a benchmark for success in this league right now uh he also pairs that with great horizontal movement so uh like bobby miller he has this two-plane fastball. But unlike Bobby Miller, his vertical aspect of it plays up. We have it with a 105 Stuff Plus number on Fangraphs. I do know from Jeff Ponce that it's more like a 130 in some team models. I think it's a really good fastball. And I could see somebody with a really good fastball like that not having a ton of whiffs and so you know I could

see this I could see Sheehan not being as good as he was hyped to be sorry I have to say it that way I don't know I don't know how else to say it because the secondary stuff doesn't pop as much in our model we didn't see the whiffs

um so i i think it's a very i think it's a good fastball but you know i i might take a bryce miller over him i sorry i did i didn't mean to sort of wade into hot takery land i know that in some places that's blasphemy what i just said i wonder i won't say said player's name to give dvr the credit to put the counter at two that he put on the scroll bar earlier but there's another pitcher that has a very similar you know heavy brandon no no but there's just another pitcher in the minors this sounds very much like i will not say his name um not to get in not to get into the weeds to make you get into the weeds or anything but that 105 versus 130 130, is that about the pitch designation?

We kind of talked about this off air, and there's a Twitter thing about it. It's not. It's not about the pitch designation. It's not. In fact, if you look on Fangraphs right now, there is no number for the fastball because it's the same number. It's 105, but they reclassified it from a sinker to a four seam um and they i mean mlbim um and so that's just caused some technical difficulties

inside uh the relationship between our numbers and fan graphs picking them up it's like it's it's a technical thing it's not uh and not anything else and uh there was some discussion about whether or not it would be a big deal if the fastball and the sinker uh if it if it changed stuff plus numbers if it was a four seam instead of a sinker called a sports team for the sinker it did not it's 105 either way uh 105 is still like a pretty decent uh number for a four seam fastball let me see if i can get some uh full season comps on this a 105 uh from a starter a 105 four seam fastball puts him uh you know next to uh just behind mitch keller and ahead of hunter brown that's pretty good

that's a great group. We have a 93 stuff less on the slider. So, you know, if you're wondering why there weren't more whiffs, it may not actually be about the fastball. Yeah, I want to see more. Like one of the things that when you look at the chart, he definitely lived up in the zone a whole lot in this game. And like, it's good to be in the upper tiers of the zone,

especially with a fastball that has got that ivb and it's got kind of the release point like you're going to be able to get more strikeouts and maybe your stuff provides but also like i do feel like when i look at this it's a lot in the upper zone and i feel like that could cause some troubles predictable or whatever yeah well if you're throwing i mean his changeup was hitting in the upper tier not a lot of strikes his slider was sitting up in the zone his fastball the heat map is heavy in the upper tier of the zone that once there's a little bit more view on it is he going to get hit up and how he adjusts and then yeah well you're sorry yeah no it's just like i i hear you talking about the the the numbers on stuff i

feel like this is one of those and i'd be curious even in your own take on this is like, I feel like I need a couple starts to really have a gauge on this because we saw what Bryce Miller did early on. And then where some of the struggles came fairly enough against the Yankees and the Rangers. And if he's going to be a heavy fastball guy, how do the secondaries play up when guys start attacking the upper part of the zone where he's throwing pretty much all his pitches. I think it's always better if, like Spencer Strider, if you're able to command the fastball to two different places. If you can get keyhole, anybody can start to have some strategy against you. And so if he's just living up in the zone, that's going to be interesting. Is that just...

And then the last way that this uh kind of comes together is we've seen that the numbers on sweepers have improved towards the batters over time so the sweeper became very popular and every year the batters get a little bit better at it now what we're seeing is uh Lance Brosnowski had this, batters against 18 IVB. It used to be 18 was the gold standard. If you had 18 inches of IVB, you had a fastball that people couldn't hit. Well, guess what happens? The league starts creeping up there. Now there's more guys with 17 and 18.

guys was 17 and 18 and lance found that league batter production against pitches with more than 18 ivb and 95 miles an hour has gone up every year in the last three years so the same thing's happening where we had this shiny toy and everyone's like oh we gotta have a high ivb get the spin spin efficiency top of the zone. And batter's like, man, all I see are these high-riding fastballs, top of the zone. What do you think a batter's going to do? Train to hit that. Adjust, wow.

Yeah, the league trains the batters in a way. And so what can happen with a minor leaguer is they're facing minor leaguers who aren't training in the same way or aren't as good as the major leaguers and then they get to the major leagues and the major league is like oh this guy's got another 18 IVB fastball like I know how to do this the flip side of that of course is that Sheehan does have more wiggle side

to side wiggle than a lot of those guys so it could still be a unique fastball it could still be a very good fastball and I do want to point out the hilarious it's not alone it's not it's not unique yeah and and this is a funny conversation too because this is like classic you know anyone that analyzes baseball because we're also talking about a guy that had six no hit innings in his major league debut like we're we're breaking down you know like we're breaking down the ivb and the release point everything and and he didn't strike out where were the whiffs yeah where the strikeouts and it's six no hit innings so it's

like i do want to acknowledge that because i've been a loud proponent of emmett sheehan uh pretty much for the entire year after seeing him last season and i love seeing this but there definitely is something in the back of my mind and it's rotted out from this season of prospects that we've seen so many of these prospects come up we've seen the waves we've also seen the 60 plus percent fastball prospects that come up and we've seen the failures that have happened and how do they adjust i will say i do trust the dodgers in being able to maintain this and help find the adjustments overall and that's an incredible debut for Emmett Sheehan. So anybody that picked up like this is the great,

this is a great get that you had, but it's interesting how you said like, you'll take Bryce Miller rest of season because that is what this is going to come to ultimately outside of this incredible debut. Yeah. Well, we'll, we'll see.

I mean, it's, it's pretty interesting. And, and, and also, you know, I think I,

I think it was on Alex fast podcast where we broke down bobby miller and we were talking about whether you could like tell a pitcher came from a certain organization just by you know his arsenal or something and i and i was like i don't think the dodgers have a type i think that if you look at stone grove you know jesai gray any of those guys that have come through, they seem very different, and it's hard to put a type on it. I will say, looking at the raw Brooks numbers for Bobby Miller and

Emmett Sheehan is interesting. They both in certain ways have a similar two-plane fastball. And so I wonder if there's something going on in LA where they're like, let's not just have the IVB, let's have a two-plane situation. So I wonder if there's something going on in LA where they're like, let's not just have the IVB, let's have a two plane situation. So I wonder if there is now a sort of Dodger approach to the fact. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you.

The Canadian Armed Forces, a message from the Government of Canada. For a rich, indulgent experience. Treat your senses with new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash. Buy it today at major retailers. Passball. Emmett Sheehan looks like we'll pitch next on Friday. They have two off days. Dodgers have Monday and Thursday off this week and Monday off next week. If he stays in the rotation beyond that, a trip to Coors awaits next week. So, yeah, even if you really like image and probably be careful with them in weekly leagues

for that particular matchup. Let's get to some Dynasty League movers. A new set of rankings went up on the site on Tuesday morning from Welsh. And I've dug into this a bit and I've had a chance to pull a bunch of names that have moved up significantly. Now, the young players who are much higher and near the top of the list that are of note, probably Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll. I mean, look, look at where they are today. They've really kind of hit that stride to the point where they are among the absolute

elite players in Dynasty Leagues. Carroll sitting up there at five, Wander at number six overall on the list. When you get into that tier, when you're in the Shohei, Acuna, Tatis, Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto stratosphere, you've made it. There is nowhere else to go. What's the... As you go through these updates, not just for

those two players, but as the middle of the season, this seems like a better time, a more fun time to actually go through this process than in the first four to the middle of the season, this seems like a better time, a more fun time to actually go through this process than in the first four to six weeks of the season when you want to make big adjustments. But, you know, we just haven't seen enough, especially when we're looking at a multi-year view. Oh, I'm I'm a total like I have to characterize everything beforehand. I have to contextualize everything when I tell people I'm like, all right's early in the sea you know when i do my prospects or dynasty i'm always contextualizing stuff i do it in this article as well as i mentioned i you know actually i don't

even know if brandon uh when edited it if he took out my like by the way i don't hate your team your favorite players or you when i do this ranks i want everyone to always know that i don't hate you and your favorite players when you read this type of stuff. But to your point, I really dislike that first month because it's open for reactionary stuff. But it kind of is here, too. Like someone asked me this. Someone had a they tweeted me something wasn't updating for them. And they're like, no, Matt McClain love. And I went and looked and I'm like, what are you talking about?

I'm like, I have them like outside the top 100. I think that's actually pretty aggressive, especially where I had him and it hadn't updated to the last update. And, but in my explanation to give them a little bit more, I said, I just need, before I make aggressive move, I need more than 30 games at the major leagues to be like, all right, Matt McLean is, you know, a top 50 player, kind of the same thing with Josh Lowe. I actually think Josh Lowe might've been the most difficult player in that top 100 range to battle with because how he's performed. I did a rest of season mock draft like two weeks ago, and the conversation came up, does

Josh Lowe belong in the second round? We did two rounds. Does he belong somewhere in that second round? You could argue it with what he's done on this year, but it has been primarily against righties. He's not, you know, he's a splits guy, but he's absolutely freaking dominating on those splits. But what does that look like over an entire season when there's been struggle? So me personally, I found Josh Lowe to be maybe the most difficult in, do you give him a top 25 or 50 as a young guy with the raise or do you backtrack a little bit to get a little bit more i did i probably am less aggressive than maybe a few other people that

do dynasty ranks because i want to see a little bit more before we anoint josh low as the next big breakout but yeah the biggest changes were corbin carroll and wander franco i'm actually very proud of the wander franco one because i never really gave up. I think there was a big argument to be said that he could have been moved outside of anyone's top 50 in Dynasty for what happened last year. I didn't. I kept him in the 20s. He's now moved up to number six, which is technically number five. I just want to point out to people because I've shown him at one, assuming it's a daily transactional type of league. If it's not, I actually lay out in the article where they would go.

But Juan de Franco third in war in the league, third in stolen bases, which is crazy. And I mean, Corbin Carroll speaks for himself. He's pacing out to be a 30-40 guy if he doesn't get better in the second half. Even if he tapers back a little bit, he looks like he's going to be a 34 guy, second in war on the year. He's going to, without question, be able to step into 2030. And he's not Acuna,

but the Corbin Carroll versus Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, those are all in question because of what Carroll's done. So those have been the two most impactful, but the hardest one was Josh Lowe, for sure. Yeah, I would say Lowe makes a lot of sense. The guy that kind of had it click after a couple of opportunities. If a player like Jaron Duran went off for a half season, it'd be really hard to adjust his multi-year value based on the track record of up and down and kind of struggles to get to that point. Lowe, I think, is sort of similar, a little younger if I'm not mistaken, but

really tough player to evaluate for the rest of this season for sure. And I also, like how I do my dynasty, people want to check and I put it in there. I envision a three-year span because I think anything over three years in dynasty is kind of tough to balance. And especially if I'm in a new dynasty, they break apart and fall apart. So you'll usually see veterans be a little bit higher on mine if I think they can produce over the three years. And that's also, this is actually a really tough time. It's like, are the rookies ready to take the big jump?

Is a struggling veteran coming down? Guys like Austin Riley, who's like, are the rookies ready to take the big jump? Is a struggling veteran coming down? Guys like Austin Riley, who's not even like a crazy, crazy veteran, you know, what level does he stay there? There's a bunch of moves in there, but a majority of the ones I think you picked as far as the risers were younger guys establishing themselves more and building up more value. Yeah. We talked about Christian Javier on the show, maybe three or four weeks ago. Now I think he's tough to evaluate from a long-term perspective. Is he, you could ask yourself,

is he going through an adjustment phase right now where he's realizing that they, either he and the organization are going to realize he has to do something else between now and next season. If he's going to remain a really effective starter in the long run or are we seeing him settle into the pitcher he's more likely to be in the long run like how how much of a finished product can we consider Christian Javier to be and I think pitchers can change we care about the already 1.3 mile an hour velocity loss and the fact that he has below average velocity right now yeah like that to me makes a player like that very very difficult to evaluate for these long-term perspectives i don't think i

moved him i don't think i think i decided to not touch him and maybe it's actually a little bit of cop out i didn't realize i did this but i've got that trio of astro starters like next to each other framber i mean i think hunter Brown is phenomenally interesting, especially from a three-year perspective. Framber, probably the most valuable of those, but the oldest as well. And Javier, I just, I don't think I touched Javier or Framber and I brought Hunter Brown up. And that's why it's like, you know,

let's take a little bit more sample size. Let's see what that materializes with Javier. Let's see how Brown continues to go. But, you know, I think this is Javier looks like he might be the guy on the outs as far as like that three from a dynasty perspective of the rotation. Probably rather have Framber and Hunter Brown. I also think it's funny when you consider pitchers from a dynasty league perspective,

completely different than position players. I don't care if a pitcher is 27 or 30. It doesn't matter as much to me because I think I take the same view you do, Welsh, where it's three years. If the stuff is good and we're at a point where they can maybe lose a little velo or I think they've got good enough command to work through it with a deeper arsenal, I'm okay with taking the chance on an air quotes older pitcher that other people might not be. And I think knowing that pitchers can also change, add stuff to their arsenal. Joe Ryan's a good example of this.

Joe Ryan, I was thinking about what you were saying a little earlier, where you have guys in the minor leagues that maybe aren't prepared to hit a certain pitch type, with the Emmett Sheehan fastball. I think the Joe Ryan fastball probably experienced that a little bit too, where the K rates we saw from joe ryan coming through the raise system before he got traded to minnesota we're insane off the charts amazing and no one expected him to carry that over but i would guess the projections relatively speaking probably were too high on him for k's compared to what he ended up doing like most guys that miss as many bats as

joe ryan was missing probably come in with higher big league K rates. And that led to some skepticism, but what he did upon arrival in 2021. And I was a little bit cautious with him in my keeper league coming off of last season. And he comes back this year with the new sweeper. It's like, well, that changes everything because he's not as dependent on that unique, good fastball, very good fastball. But I always thought if Joe Ryan's fastball lost a tick or a tick and a half that things would unravel on him really fast. Having that sweeper, I have a much lower level of concern about that package completely dismantling.

Still 92 and a half with the fastball. I mean, I think your original concerns don't lose sight of them too much. But just generally what I do like uh from your list is that you do have a pretty strong uh starting pitcher um base called like well also just like no like a discount like your number one starting pitcher is at 17 yeah Yeah. If you're not counting Shohei and you've got a little pocket there and then there's really not that many pitchers until you get into another pocket in the sort of early forties, late thirties,

early forties. I mean, I'm guessing right now, but I'd say, but in your top 50, you have like 10 starting pitchers. Oh yeah. I probably should have counted that.

I think you're right. It's probably. I think you're right to do that. I'm not criticizing. I think that's. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think that's about the number. Sometimes I look at it and wonder if it could be stronger.

I mean, Strider, you know, really sort of stands out as a young guy, Velo, but two-pitch pitcher. Could there be injury concerns? You know, would you really take Spencer Stride over Mookie Betts? I mean, yeah, I guess with Mookie Betts being older, yeah. I could see it. It's like, are you getting the new DeGrom type of stuff? Those are the questions.

And that's the same thing with prospect ranking in general. Any fantasy ranking is pitching. Though the adage has always been like, oh, build up your hitters and get your pitchers later it's easier said than done in leagues because when you're in a win now mode pitchers are worth exponentially more than like what my list would represent but if i'm in a valuation state i'm gonna value hitters long term over them and there's some tough ones in there you know a really tough one coming back to the age thing. I actually would be really curious what you think about this, you know,

is where did I want to go with Sandy Alcantara? Who's still young versus where do I go with an older, almost 33, Kevin Gossman, who's been ridiculous. And Kevin Gossman is an example. I think of what you were talking about DVR in that, like, you know,

three year span, who's a guy that can still produce. I've, I've always used Freddie Freeman as my prime example of a guy who's a guy that can still produce i've always used freddie freeman as my prime example of a guy who's older who i just have high because i still think he's going to produce at elite levels for multiple years gossman is one of those but like you know with a five-year age gap who would you rather have if you're thinking in the short term you know gossman or alcontra i think gossman and that's tough five years five years sans five years

for uh gossman over alcantara right now and i don't think like the thought of that in dynasty for people i think breaks their brain why you would take a five-year older pitcher for a guy like sandy who's had you could argue you know two really bad months coming off of what was incredible but it's worrisome i think we've seen decent aging curves for older pitchers and i think maybe partially because um they're the healthy ones the non-healthy ones got scrubbed out by you know 33 34 a lot of them you know yeah so if he's you know one of the healthy ones then you know he's more akin to and i'm not saying he is max scherzer or justin verlander but like he's wouldn't he would if you're doing aging groupings

would you maybe put him more in that group than say a jake degrom you know because jake degrom can't stay healthy so gossman seems like you put him in the healthy older pitcher group and it doesn't seem like the next three years are going to portend the end of his career. Whereas for Jake DeGrom, the chance that the next three years are the end of his career, they're not zero. They're not even 5% or 10%. It's probably something like 25%. Am I wrong?

Yeah. So if you are thinking these three-year groups, you're not only thinking who's going to be good, but you're also thinking who's going to pitch in those three years and who's going to who's who's going to. Yeah. Who's going to pitch in those three years? And I think that's the toughest thing about about pitchers. And, you know, this goes back to this is a different topic, but this goes back to what you're saying about Josh Lowe. josh lowe i i really uh i did the control f on jared kelnyk because uh i just saw some interesting analysis about how a lot of the things we loved about the beginning of the season for jared kelnyk when he's chasing less uh making more contact yeah all those things have just slowly over time regressed to where he was before uh and i remember uh i remember having one baseball person telling me that he actually thought that all that this year was for jared

kelnick was just a reset like he just you know went in with confidence and that was different than what he was doing before you know because now you look up and he's got the 33% K rate like he did last year. He's got the 14% swing strike rate like he did last year. And like almost everything is the same as last year, except he has a better BABIP, a worse barrel rate, and he started out better. So the shape of the season was like, people remember that he was good, you know, but if you do, you know, know, I'm just going to do a simple split. I'm not saying this is predictive or anything, but he's hitting 178 in June, you know? If he hit 178 in March and April,

all the people who did the victory laps on him, none of them would be here. No one would notice, would remember the victory laps on Jared Conley. Everyone would still remember, oh, bust or whatever. I decided with him, I made my, because I do my updates like monthly, burrow the victory laps on jerry connelly everyone would still remember oh bust or whatever i decided with him i made my because i do the i do my updates like monthly uh and i decided to you know bring him up significantly obviously at the beginning of the season but i decided not to touch him at all off of this because you're definitely right and things are turning in a bad direction

when's your last update well no i just did the update literally just oh it was um uh what are we may 9th or something along so may 9th you had jared kelling it's around 140 yeah around 150 yeah 140 150 that's what put him in the range you think of like you know age uh the age curve of like the adjustments he's making for power for speed his age still on that team. Yeah. There's a lot of positives why you could give him benefit of the doubt. So yeah, it's like right in the mid,

but you didn't push him as far as Josh Lowe. No. And I decide, and, but see Josh Lowe has, even though I think he's tapered down a little bit in June, uh, and the numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

I kept low going up, but not to extreme degrees. I wanted to just stop. And this is what I do. Like I'm not, there are some people that are way more aggressive on stuff with than I am. I want points before I make the big concerted decisions. And it's like,

if this continues through June, because everything you said is right about Kelnick. I open up the opportunity to that. What if he is the streaky player? What if that will be his thing? What if all-star break is another reset point? He gets back, he comes out and he comes out the gates again. And this is like Justin Upton all over again, where Justin Upton would have two crazy months and then be garbage and then kind of come back. That doesn't happen. Then it's exactly what you said. It's like, oh, well, hilar hilariously the timing of his struggles just worked in his favor to go up and i will probably bring him down significantly in the next update maybe that doesn't help for

foresight for people but i still think there's an opportunity that he sees it again just gets another good stretch but it may not but josh low and him are not in the same territory josh low is absolutely moving into elite-ish territories that I think just takes a little bit more time to see. You know, and lots of these players. Nolan Gorman is struggling right now, but the adjustments he made I thought were insanely elite, and I think he deserves to not be punished

because of three weeks right now. You know, I guess I was benefiting from earlier. because of three weeks right now. I guess I was benefiting from earlier. I did see Nolan Gorman on a list that bothered me a little bit. Which one? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which, yeah, there's a lot of lists

that could be worrisome here. I wish I could give credit. Somebody had launch angle added. I think this sounds like a, an Alex Chamberlain thing. And he basically had, um, you know,

like who, because high pitches go for higher launch angles and low pitches go for lower launch, launch angles. So he basically did like a pitch location adjusted, uh, launch angle. Right.

And Nolan Gorman was in like the top three, uh, which suggests that he has an uppercut swing. Well, I also want to suggest that he can be pitched to that. This strikeout rate is not that the strikeout rate is related to the shape of his swing, which then puts him in sort of Kyle Schwarber territory.

So if you're cool with Kyle Schwarber and there are tons of reasons to be cool with him, OBP leagues, length of career, homers, you know, this is Kyle Schwarber. What I think is interesting about that is the preseason conversation where the Cardinals asked him to go and learn to hit high fastballs because he wasn't hitting high fastballs.

And that was the work. And he had to go to, I think it was driveline. And he made that adjustment. And a lot of the success early on was because that was how he was being attacked. So if you're talking about, you know, high uppercut swings, he's being hit in the upper part of the zone and he's getting the ball in the air. If people are readjusting to him and he has uh he has re-transformed his swing to be upper zone efficient that if he's now being changed as far as how he's being pitched he's got to learn to

adjust that swing which may have made some he may have made some advancements but i'm looking at his heat map right now and he's blue across the top yeah so you know this is this is uh and you know if you remember schwarber's career early on uh you know was tumultuous and in fact i think remains tumultuous he has a 187 average right now but last year he had 46 homers right so uh there this i think uh if you are considering lillorman and long-term, you should definitely look at Kyle Schwarber's page. That's interesting. It's really interesting. You can see the similarities there for sure.

I think it's interesting that Gorman, to this point in his career, looks like a better overall hitter than Kelnick does. I wouldn't have expected that. I think the thing that's really tricked me with Jared Kelnick is the lower strikeout rates that he posted throughout his time in the minors. And the longer I do this, the longer I play, the more I think it doesn't matter. I think just as people were obsessing over Elie de la Cruz's high K rates in the minors being a problem. being a problem, I think you can trick yourself into thinking that

strikeouts aren't going to be a problem if you see a lot of sub-20% K rates, especially when it's really advanced age-for-level stuff, like we've seen from Kelnick. And the more I see it, the more I think I know absolutely nothing about what a hitter's going to do with swing and miss

based on what he did in the minors. There are some organizations that don't game plan for the game the same way they do in the minors. There are some organizations that don't game plan for the game the same way they do in the major leagues. What are they doing then? What is the point? They focus more on what the hitters should do. We're trying to get him to hit high fastballs,

so we're not going to tell him to lay off high fastballs because he's in the minor leagues. We're working on high fastballs. So if he swings through a bunch him to lay off high fastballs because he's in the minor leagues. We were working on high fastballs. So if he swings through a bunch of fastballs, high fastballs, that's actually OK, because it's a training environment right now for him to hit high fastballs. Right. So, you know, I don't know. I just know these are separate things that I'm just now putting together in a way to sort of maybe explain why this happens, which is that I also know that like there are certain organizations where they get to the major leagues and they're surprised by how much data there is in the major leagues and how much how many scouting reports there are and how much they do and you're like that's not a good sign when i hear you say something like that i say what are you guys

doing in the minor leagues the amount of players i don't want to say because i know i've said we just play mlb the show until it's game time. I've cited in different shows some players I've talked to and some of the things they've said that have astonished me. But yeah, it's never gotten old to me of the players that I've talked to. And I'll bring up the word analytics or whatever it is. And they just, I mean, the very first one was like five years ago. I'll say his name, but it was Taylor Trammell when he was with the Reds. And I was just like, oh, you know, are analytics a part of your game at this stage?

And he just he shook his head in a way of like, let's not talk about this anymore. He's like, nope. And I was like, OK. You know, and Alec Boehm told me he doesn't make in season in the minors. He would look at data in the offseason, but he wouldn't make any adjustments or look at stuff in season in the minors. I'm going to guess that probably. Sometimes the coach is doing that right you know the coach is is being a firewall and it's like looking at those things for them yeah and so they don't have to i know the boom has a complicated

relationship with analytics and stuff yeah yeah still i know that also he's been coached through that lens so i don't know that he always knew it it's just everyone would be shocked what you're saying it's like in the lower levels to you know high a to even into double a the amount of off-hands organizations can have with guys like what you're seeing in the stat lines are really just sometimes some of just the pure raw skill set not like you know affirmative changes changes. So the organization's like, do this and do that, and analyzing swings. They don't do that. That's not what's happening in those lower levels. Not saying everyone doesn't,

but there's a decent amount. There's also just like a difference. You're not trying to win the game as much. In the minor leagues, like what I'm saying with the high fastball thing, in the minor leagues, the point is to develop them. But I would argue that part of what you're developing is a process and you want all of your minor leaguers to be used to

the process of trying to win the day's game right so even if that game doesn't matter against the whatever's the lug nuts you still want them to pretend it matters because when they get to the major leagues you want them to be doing the same things and looking at the same numbers, looking at the video, doing the right things to put themselves in. You know what? I can almost confirm. I don't want to say 100% because I paid attention to it, but it wasn't. I didn't like go up and grab people, but I've been going out to Arizona Complex League. I don't believe the complex in any way is utilizing like pitch clocks and stuff like these guys in rookie ball are not

under there's no clocks there's no timing i've seen i saw a guy yesterday get three timeouts to just kind of go back and forth and do stuff like that's a major league thing and i know you're like a really long ways away and stuff but they're not utilizing like you know the pace of the game and stuff in complex league as far as i know there's no clock maybe they're internally doing it but it is slow slow paced and it is so odd that that's not happening when that is literally the major league way right now so you know just another thing i don't know why you wouldn't want to recreate as many you can't recreate the entire problem set that is major league baseball it's impossible the talent's not there But as far as the environment,

you'd want to replicate that as much as you possibly could. And the process of preparing, you'd want to replicate that as much as you possibly could. And the reason some teams don't is money. Don't want to spend the money on the coaching and the tech. Maybe. I don't know. I find that to be really weird.

There's been a recent expansion of teams that do, for example, what they call training dirty, which is Donnie Ecker called it when he came to San Francisco, which is screw eyewash batting practice, where they're just flipping that up and everyone's hitting homers. That's not useful. More of a like, let's have the machine throw the shapes that this starting pitcher is throwing tonight.

Let's have the machine throwing at 100 miles an hour like let's let's like let's get in there and get our you know get our eyes wide you know before the game you know um and they're starting to do more of that at triple a so that when they call a guy up he's just been doing that and so he knows that they're doing at the major league level level. And so they're, they're used to it, but they still did probably don't do that. They complex. And, but I have talked to some guys who in player development about this.

And I think it's like a comfort. And so the, there's two things you want to do for a prospect, you know, or for your prospects in general, and they're coming up is you want to challenge them to make them improve, but you also want them to feel comfortable um and there's so much uh negativity uh failure uh quest self-questioning that happens for a prospect coming up to the major leagues of course there is

like half of them don't make it it's like hunger games or something where you're just seeing people drop out and just like oh did you hear blah blah you know retired or whatever it's like oh crap he's oh he's younger than i am you know whatever you know it's just like all these thoughts are like i'm never gonna make it or when am i gonna make it and all this stuff so you know a lot of organizations put try to put it's not i'm putting air quotes on safe space but like try to make them feel like they're in a space where everybody's rooting for them and that, you know,

everybody wants them to succeed. And you can see how that might be diametrically opposed to something like training dirty where you're like, okay, now we're putting on the machine on 105. I like to, you're all going to look like idiots. I do like the thought too.

They're like, we want you to be comfortable, but you know, talk about this when the five of you go share your one-bedroom apartment while you're eating that's right i feel comfortable in game while you guys are eating yeah i saw i saw two we're making our spreads better here we know you're eating peanut butter yeah i won't say the team but i saw i was parked next to two guys as i was moving over to another field and it was two players and they were eating just bags of mcdonald's not hating on mcdonald's or anything but they're just eating in their car. They're just wolfing down a bunch of McDonald's fries and stuff.

You're like, ah, baseball nutrition. That's not the best food for your next all-star. Shout out to Kevin Maiton, who just got released. He'll always remember you. Yeah, it's a shame. Speaking of McDonald's, yeah, it is. Nice guy. So how much of the rundown did we get to?

We got to the Dynasty updates, which is impressive. Nice guy. How much of the rundown did we get to? We got to the Dynasty updates, which is impressive. We did. A couple quick updates on demoted players before we go. Grayson Rodriguez is actually dealing at AAA, and it sounds like he made some adjustments. Did you say before the show that he's... He threw two cutters in his last start, so he's

really putting the cutter away, which I think is a good idea. I think he should use it sometimes against lefties and not at all against righties. So that sounds like two. I think he's doing that. Also, his command took a real jump forward in the last two games.

So I'm hoping that the emphasis has been on fastball command, using the foreseam against lefties, and finding his way out without the cutter. Because I don't think the cutter is a very good pitch. And he had three really good pitches before that. So I think there might be something really good happening under the hood there for Grayson. Yeah, it looks like he's got 27 strikeouts against eight walks in his last three starts. He's gone six innings every time out in June so far.

So it might not be long before we see him back at the big league level. Jose Miranda has been stuck for a while. That's a big faller on the dynasty rankings. Welsh long-term outlook on Jose Miranda. How much has that changed given the way this season is playing out? I mean, it's definitely changed because I think I felt a lot more hyper aggressive into the preseason. The bat to ball skills, I think what i was uh betting on that the homers were going to get there as well and that just completely fell apart uh it's kind of back to not being there i mean he's only hitting 252 in triple a the strikeouts are lower though the what's that the power's gone yeah well it's the quality of contact is gone too so i don't know what has happened what

the change is but that was a that was one that we had to move off of pretty quick because you know he didn't have the stolen bases to back him up this seemed like a guy that would be a prime number three hitter rbi opportunity type of guy that had 20 plus power and the contact is completely gone so i hope he can revamp it i like him a lot there's a lesson for us i guess you know uh you know 109 max ev did not suggest that he had a plus raw power that's basically just a tiniest bit above average and a six percent barrel rate is not that great either so the best thing he had going for him was that 19 strikeout rate and that's still not like an orizion number that's more like he was slightly above average in k percentage slightly above average and barrel rate and that just the tiniest ticks of above average

max ev that's not actually when you say it that way it does not sound like a an elite package you need to bet on speaking of development lower i'd like to see the twin like get him more aggressive he's striking only 13 of the time i don't want to see his strikeouts go up, but if he's like walking a bit more, he's striking out less and his batting average is down. Let's change something. Let's get him more aggressive. Let's have him swinging at more pitches and see what the pro I don't know. I would just use this as a training.

It's like, try, try to do like, try to hit for powers. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. Like screw the results right now. Let's get something fixed.

If, especially if like where they counted him and moved him back. If you're also struggling in AAA, let's revamp some of this stuff. And let's do, who cares if we hit, you know, 220 for a period of time and the strikeouts go over 20%.

Let's see what we can do with this. But, you know, I don't know what that looks like for them. How about Von Grissom? So far at AAA, just two homers in 46 games with Gwinnett, seven for nine as a base stealer. Slashline's not bad.

312, 380, 462. 13% K rate is nice to see. Is this a long-term profile to still be excited about, even though we don't know where exactly he's going to fit in defensively in Atlanta? Excited might be a little bit too big of a term, but I think we can still bank that there's something there. Dude. The batting average I'm in. It's like an exact match for Miranda.

Are they? Is it the same as far as, yeah, lower barrel rate, 6.8% barrel rate? I mean, it's really similar, like 18%, 19% strikeout rate, 6% to 7% barrel rate. His max EV is even lower i mean i just think i think this is like someone you want to catch you know at the right moment but also not invest in heavily you know what i'm saying like you could catch this guy and he could have a season like he did last year over a full season where he hits like 280 290 15, or 20, 20. You know, he could do that.

But now it doesn't come at a middle infield position, most likely. And there is a sort of whiff of like, well, he's slightly above average in a lot of places, but he's not really a lead anywhere. Steals bases. I'd say that. And I have on my dynasty rank. I have Grissom.

Miranda with stolen bases would also be better. Yeah, and I have Grissom above Miranda in my dynasty ranks. And at least the stolen bases, if anything, you've got on Grissom. And you do like to see the strikeout rate being cut, though. The other player people were asking about is Alec Menoa. He's going to do another simulated game on Wednesday before eventually progressing to a regular rehab assignment. I kind of think we need to see some results in the minor leagues,

see how things are going, get some reports on Velo, get a sense for when the slider is back. It's just, it's too early to tell if anything has actually changed with him. Yeah. I completely, they're attacking that slider movement though. That's what I want to know though.

I want to see, like, I want to give us something like, did we scrap a pitch? Did we change the shape? What are we doing? If they solely worked on pace, you know,

his pacing of pitching with the clock i would love to know what those things are so i just had to kind of move him down and we got to sit and wait you could argue he's a buy now because a track record and age i probably wouldn't disagree with you too much but he's also a major flight risk right now this is a weird thought i had this do you think if he does, let's say his, his cider movement profile is improving in the train sessions. Do you think it might be a good idea to like leak that? Well, that's the thing.

The reports that came out, I think it was, it was John Schneider talking to the media and saying, Oh, there've been positive reports from Florida. Oh yes. Your people told you that things are looking good. So you could leak that on MLB network.

It's a little bit different where you sort of like, you leak that to some journalist and they're like, oh, his horizontal movement on slider's up four inches. Have they ever needed- That would create a positive narrative in the media where people are like, ooh, oh, his slider,

and then a nicer landing point for Manoa, right? They need like a driveline slow-mo video of his. Exactly, yeah. That is 100% what they need. They need to build him up. point for manoa right like you need like a driveline slow-mo video of you know exactly yeah that is a hundred percent what they need driveline they need to build him up like they need to build his confidence back up that guy was done like you know you need to yeah you need to have like a hype video a training video music is to it and it's like or just or just even publish it you know each of these players each of these uh organizations usually has i don't know if the toronto does this but you you've noticed this where they have uh player development uh twitter accounts yes 100 they need

to hire the wwe and do a promo video and it's like music i completely plus 3.5 inches horizontal movement closer videos so the the good folks that make the closer entrance videos in the off season could make rehab videos, like videos. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. That's where we're headed. All right.

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If you haven't done that already, you've got questions for a future episode. Rates and barrels at gmail.com is the best way to send those. And you could also drop those under this video on YouTube if you haven't done that already. If you've got questions for a future episode, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com is the best way to send those in. You could also drop those under this video on YouTube. We try to check that every once in a while as well. On Twitter, you can find Welsh at isitthewelsh. You can find Eno at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper.

That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.