Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - Impact Upon Arrival

Episode Date: April 4, 2023

DVR and Welsh discuss some prospect impact in the majors with Brice Turang and others. The Triple-A season is underway with some interesting performances, plus a look at a few minor league assignments. Rundown 1:03 - Brice Turang 8:47 - Esteury Ruiz vs Brice Turang 15:47 - Jhony Brito 24:24 - Jared Shuster 26:59 - Are we back in on MacKenzie Gore? 36:48 - Brandon Pfaadt's less than great Triple-A debut 39:57 - Brett Baty 45:00 - Tyler Soderstrom's 113.5 Max EV 48:36 - Interesting Minor League Assignments Follow Derek Van Riper on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Treat yourself to Tim's new Fudge Brownie Lattes, made with freshly ground espresso beans, frothy steamed or ice-chilled milk, and topped with marble chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is the Project Prospect episode. Tuesday, April 4th is the date. Derek Van Ryper here with Chris Welsh. On this episode, we're going to dig into a few recent debuts. Players that have made their big league debuts since the start of this season. The AAA schedule got underway just prior to the weekend, so we'll talk about a few early performances at that level. We've also got

other notable minor league assignments for some of the league's top prospects, so we'll get into those, as well as some changes that are coming to prospect lists as players will be graduating in the very near future. So, Welsh, we begin today with some recent debuts, and I was trying to rank them in order of impact, and this was pretty easy, actually, because one of them is still in the big leagues, and the next two are not. We'll start with Bryce Terang, who had a grand slam in the Brewers' home opener on Monday. Pretty fun moment for him. He's been a burner. The speed has been on full display in the early days of the season. I think there were a lot of people, and I was among them, that wondered if he was even a lock

to make the opening day roster. And then even if he did, I think the expectation was, given some of the right-handed depth pieces on the bench, that Terang would be on the big side of Platoon. And then, from a skills perspective, power has been a question mark for Bryce Terang as a prospect, really until last season. He popped 13 home runs in Nashville. He's always been young for the level, but I was very skeptical of the power that we saw from him a year ago being something that might carry over into his rookie season. I know it's only four games, but this is a really nice start

for a guy who was a first-round pick a few years ago and didn't seem to get that much redraft hype despite the fact that he does offer a lot of speed. Yeah, how much does it get you going that he's a brewer as well? As you're wearing your brewer's hat, by the way, you've got that on. I've got my Prospect 1 hat on for Project Prospect. It's funny. I saw Bryce in spring training.

Obviously, it was right before the actual game started up, so that was six weeks ago. He was working. Him and Joey Weamer were hand-in-hand with all the major leaguers. Something I noted to myself was he looked exactly the same from when I, I was at his pro debut on the backfields of the Padres after he got drafted

and he made his debut back there. Super nice guy. We chatted about California and stuff as a West coast guy. And I just remember he's the exact same body type. And that's not necessarily something that you like really want to lock into a guy, especially a smaller stature, or at least just like not a big physical not like a big shoulder guy he just didn't have the presence of like a big power hitter and he looks exactly the same yet he's just making really really good early contact and speed was always going to be a part of his game so

now it's actually a really kind of crazy thing to think about is Bryce Terang might be as statistically matched with Anthony Volpe, or at least more than we really think about. Because if he's going to tap into this power and he's a 10 or 15 option, the stolen bases really have the potential to hit into the 25s. It's so early, but it is hilarious. I don't know if you've looked at his baseball savant page. It is red as red can be what Bryce Terang is doing in this very early set. XBA 94 percentile, XWOBA 94 percentile. He's walking. He's not striking out.

He's got two stolen bases early on, and he's just making really good contact. His speed is the game changer. I'm not going to buy in regardless. It's so cool that he hit the Grand Slam and his family was there and stuff, but he's still like somewhere between 10 and 15 max homer guy. But if he's going to hit for contact, he could hit at the top of this lineup at some point this season. And with the base stealing, he is for real a 20 stolen base potential guy. So he has moved into the territory that I know there's some people that don't think he's a must add. I think he is. I think out of pure

speculation, he's a must add for the speed and what he can do for this lineup because it does not look like he wants to let this go or is going to let this go anytime soon. Yeah, I think Terang is going to creep into 12-team mixed league relevance really fast because of that speed and because of the hold on that playing time and because of the Luis Urias injury, which just clears up a playing time backlog of sorts. Even if Urias directly wasn't going to take time away from Terang, having one fewer guy that's a priority player in that lineup opens up a little more wiggle room for Terang in

the early days of the season. And for two months. Yeah. It's a long time. So there's a good window here for Terang to really solidify himself. Looks like he's a good defender at second base too. I mean, it was a shortstop as a prospect. Moving over to second shouldn't be a problem for him. The range looks good. Seen him make at least one really nice play already. I think the question would be if you see even this quickly on, you know, almost a dozen bad balls, nine to be exact, the max EV, 104.2.

I'm assuming that was the home run. Safely said, that was probably the home run that he hit. Safely, yeah. On Monday. If you look at where that would fall on last year's max EV leaderboard, 104.2 out of 252 qualified hitters would have been 251st.

It would have been right where. It would have been right between Geraldo Perdomo and Tony Kemp. Well, I think you also see that in projections. I don't know if this has been live updated or not, but the Bat-X, if you want to go check it out, the Bat-X I think is a little bit more realistic. Funny enough, compared to some of the other systems, it's the lowest on the homer total but the highest on the stolen base total and that's how i would approach and

that's why i think people get mixed up with a guy like bryce terang is like holy cow we're getting this and he had a grand slam that's a little bit more of an anomaly than anything else like like i'm a huge defender of a certain player we won't name. We'll see if we can not name this player that might be an autographed jersey above me. That his more slight of frame that people want to say this guy can't hit for power, but said prospect number seven for the Dimebacks had a 200 plus ISO at every stop in the minor leagues. But rookie ball, that's not Bryce Terang.

Bryce Terang has never had an ISO over 130 in the minor leagues. So a 400 ISO is not something to be realistic about. But you're looking for a middle infielder that's got a 20 stolen base potential on the upside. And then homers are kind of a give me, give me, okay, that's cool. It's a good, powerful offense.

But I think you should be realistic. Like 10 is, I think, the place that you should sit. Because like you said, that max EV is not in the territory of anything good. And as a matter of fact, maybe the worst compared to last year, but the ball's flying a little bit more and he's going to be able to take advantage of it.

Yeah. The skills that we feel more confident with Bryce Terang, the speed, the defense, even the hit tool. I mean, one strikeout so far, 13 plate appearances.

That's more encouraging than the grand slam. When you're trying to figure out what he's likely to do and how he's likely to fare in the weeks and months ahead. Nice debut so far. And that's something I hone in on. If you guys have listened to me or if you can stand listening to me, any of this stuff like I really

get locked into players that are less strikeout risk floor oriented with really high upside. I like Anthony Volpe more than Bryce Terang. No shocker. So does everybody else on the planet. Because I think Volpe is more explosive as far as, like, the power goes. And he might even be a little bit more aggressive on the base paths.

But Bryce Terang provides a nice floor at this point. You know, contact numbers seem to be there right now. He's not striking out. He's walking a bit. Those are all good floor numbers to at least let that rise up to mitigate some of the risk. That's why I think he's super sneaky right now. And I know there's a lot of people out there, not just like Brewers fans, but we're all focused so much on these big prospects and it's the Vulpys and the Jordan Walkers and

stuff. And they want us to talk more about kind of the unsung heroes. And he is probably, I think he's the leader of the unsung heroes of prospects right now, especially with the early run he's getting. So I think it's encouraging, but it's a stolen base chase for me, which ends up meaning like, is it a three category chase total? You know, you said the relevancy of 12 teams. It's probably a two category chase.

And maybe the category is runs versus batting average and it swipes around, which then that opens up like maybe it's just a one category guy but go pick them up i think the floor is the reason why you take the risk right now and you could probably dump off some player that we don't care about there's plenty of players on your bench that you're just kind of holding out hope for i'd rather play the upside very early on in the year just thinking about another speedster that had some excitement during draft season, what do you think about Estreiruiz

versus Bryce Terang for the rest of the season? Who do you think returns more Roto value? I thought you were going to say just stolen bases, and now I'm like, I'm going to have an easy answer for this Roto value. I knew you were going to do this. I have to play the Eno role, so I have to go, well, I don't like Estreiruiz this i have to play the eno role so i have to go well

you know i don't like history carefully yeah yeah i gotta talk about the the max ev for history ruiz who did put up i think a couple or at least one 109 i would say history ruiz is my guy on this i don't see a scenario especially as i got rid of pache where he's going to lose any playing time not that i'm projecting it for Terang, but there are maybe possibilities. I also think the impact of stolen base is going to be way higher when Estorri goes up, but there's volatility. The reason I didn't have Estorri Ruiz to lead the league in stolen bases

is because I just don't know how he's going to hit. Mateo's doing well without hitting, and Estorri's going to probably do the same thing, but is it enough to get on base? And Terang has a better possibility, but I'm going to go with Esturi Ruiz as far as that goes, even though you snuck in that Roto return. What do you think?

Do you think it's Esturi? The A's lineup is so incredibly bad that the counting stats could be horrific for Ruiz. I mean, bottom third of the order, bottom of the order hitter with that profile and Terang, again, has a similar enough profile. He'd carry this risk too if he were in this situation. They already

lag in runs and RBIs a lot of times. It could be even worse for Ruiz just because Oakland is historically bad. 50 runs, 20 RBI, two homers with 45 stolen bases. Yeah, 45 steals sounds like a little bit of a stretch,

not from a raw speed perspective, but from a getting on base enough to get that many green lights perspective from me. I would take terrain over ruiz right now i was i think i went oh for draft season on picking up a story i don't have anywhere i think i have one sure what do you think uh i'm just looking at the bat x derrick cardi's about x what do you think the projection looks like if you're not looking at it don't what do you think the rest of season is uh counting stats because i'm looking at them right now

oh the counting stats for ruiz is it giving a pretty much full plate like pretty much full time 118 games it says so i don't know if that's like the rest of season or that's the total season but no 118 games what do you think the bad x has on history right now 47 runs and 22 rIs. You're actually pretty close. It's a little closer to mine. 57 runs, 29 RBI. Now, what do you think on the homer and stolen bases? And then we're going to do Bryce Terrain. I'm going to say six homers for Ruiz and 34 steals.

You are super close on that. Eight homers, 32 stolen bases it's there's only one elite category in their batting average we don't even need to play with it's uh 230 which i actually think is pretty generous and would be good for his territories now and to your point there are 114 games projected on uh bryce terang i don't Maybe we, I think I mentioned them, so I might ruin it, but a Homer run RBI stolen bases. I'm going to say 10 Homers. I'm going to say 27 steals and then runs and RBIs. I'm going to say runs would be 58 and RBIs would be like 40.

Was this your projection or is this the bad X you're guessing? That's the bad X. Okay. Bad X is seven homers, 53 runs. You were very close. 43 RBI, very close,

but only 15 stolen bases. So almost cut in half of what you're projecting. So based on that, Bryce Terang, if you just wanted to go off of that, Bryce Terang doesn't do enough, I think, on the run in RBI or homers. Actually, Estory is projected more to justify the stolen base margin between Estory and him, though there's a little bit more batting average. But that is also just based off the projections. And I think it's hard. And Derek has always been kind of dinged on rookies and stuff

like that I think it'd be very hard for the system to be over aggressive with Bryce Trank so again I don't blame you because I think Bryce might provide a little bit more overall it's just Asturi is going to have the upside on the stolen bases though very interesting that you think those two are going to be hyper close it's it's crazy though because Astrid Ruiz ran so much last season in the minors. That was 85 steals, if I'm doing the math correctly in my head, between AA and the two AAA teams he played for. And he wasn't caught that often. He was only caught 14 times.

So he's 85 for 99 as a base stealer in the upper levels of the minor leagues. It's understandable. I think the team difference offsets the speed ceiling difference. I hope Astrid Ruiz is everything that the optimists expect him to be, but I've seen profiles like this go wrong enough times where I have to be the wet blanket. I have to be very cautious. Yeah, it is kind of, well.

Mondesi's got the power upside for sure but it's non-zero power from ruiz though yeah eight homers seems a little aggressive on uh also on the bad x but maybe it had to do is if they're putting in some ev numbers he did pop uh a late ev that 109 that had us all talking but you know me and eno broke down and took a look at like a lot of the other hits and there were just a lot of bad dribbler stuff in there that didn't help his average exit velocity. So I don't know. Estrella's interesting.

He hasn't done, he hasn't popped anything early on. And Bryce Terang is a talk now. Do you think you could trade Bryce Terang for Estrella Ruiz in a redraft league right now? I think in a lot of situations you could. I think people get really glued to early production, even when it's less than a week. When someone's going off,

there's something that happens in your brain that makes you want to take the player that's performed at that high level, even if it's a tiny sample. You want to know what? I don't think you could. You don't think it would happen? I wish we could run the poll right now.

I kind of don't think you could. I think the people that invested in Estoril Ruiz, they're invested for their very specific reason, and I don't think they think Bryce Terang could provide that. And obviously, I'm talking about stolen bases. I actually think like 7 out of 10 Ruiz owners would reject a trade straight up for Bryce Terang. Assuming like they had a spot for him. Let's say they didn't have like a good middle infield option. I bet they would reject a trade straight up for Bryce Turing. Assuming they had a spot for him.

Let's say they didn't have a good middle infield option. I bet they would reject that trade. Interesting. Maybe it's a Twitter poll that will be released after the episode comes out to see where everybody's at. We'll take the temperature of the people at that time. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking?

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Some other recent debuts. How about this one? Johnny Brito shines in his debut for the Yankees. Changeup looked really good. Fastball velocity was good. He was rewarded with a trip to Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, which is, you know, lovely in the summer, not so nice in April. It was actually because the Yankees don't need a fifth starter, though, this week. Next time they need one is April 12th in Cleveland. So a week from Wednesday, he could be back in that rotation. If you picked him over the weekend,

you're kind of stuck with him in a weekly league. Are you going to hold him? Are you going to hold him expecting him to get that turn? And are you going to use him against the Guardians with confidence based on what you saw in that first outing? Because he certainly passed the eye test as a guy that really didn't seem to have much hype at all from most of the prospect folks that I follow and listen to.

No, there's nothing in on me. Um, as far as holding him over, I gotta tell you, probably not. I would also say like the guardians are not a team that I'm really hoping for a rookie pitcher like that.

Cause you're also hoping that the strikeouts are going to end up pumping. I will say very interesting. His number one pitch was a changeup, almost 37% usage. That was over the fastball. He had a 50% whiff rate on that changeup as well. Fastball was pumping 95, didn't really do anything, but it was a table setter.

And he was able to also implement, it looks like a little bit of a sinker and curveball action. Four pitches of double digit usage is really really fascinating for a guy like him. I don't know. I don't think so. I don't think this is the type of guy the Yankees have kind of done this before where you'll get like a short

stint on a player and what is it they've got to do to be able to hang around? They would have to light the world up. So I don't think I'm a holdover on it because I also don't like the matchup, but I wouldn't blame anybody that did it. This is not like a 70% fastball prospect that came in. This is a guy that pumped up a changeup, which is a great strikeout pitch,

and he threw it more than anything else. It's just how long are you going to be able to get away with it? Also, a lot of really good contact hitters at the top of that Guardians lineup. So that's a no for me. He might be in for me in a 15-team league. You have to watch all the weekend news really carefully before holding on to him, though, because things change. Guys get healthy.

But you look at the case for holding him in leagues where you have the luxury of holding someone who's not giving you something right now. Rodon's injury history, he's hurt right now. Severino's injury history, he was also hurt right now. Clark Schmidt, unfortunately, has an extensive injury history, he's hurt right now. Severino's injury history, he was also hurt right now. Clark Schmidt, unfortunately, has an extensive injury history. And as good as Clark Schmidt is, I think when the dust clears, I put this out there back during draft season,

when everyone's healthy, if everyone's healthy, it's Cole, it's Rodon, it's Nestor Cortez, it's Severino, and it's Clark Schmidt. I think they like Clark Schmidt more than Domingo Herman. I think they trust Clark Schmidt more than Domingo Herman. I think they trust Clark Schmidt more than Domingo Herman, health permitting. But given the low health grades on three of those five starters, I think Brito could end up seeing more innings than people realize this year. He could be maddening to have on rosters and redraft leagues because an up and down starter like this, or even an in and out of the rotation

sort of guy. Think about Ross Stripling in those years with the Dodgers when he was like the extra starter. Great, he's starting. We can use him. Oh, he's back in the bullpen. He's going two innings at a time. That's not really going to be helpful in a lot of leagues. I think that's probably the role Brito sees the most. It's probably more swingman than regular starter,

barring worse injury news for this Yankees rotation, which hopefully doesn't happen because I want to see what this rotation does with full health. You know, and these are the type of guys I struggle with the most in prospect evaluation is someone that was not on a radar for a long time. I mean, a long time.

He definitely had some stents of big inflated ERAs in 2021 in AA. He had a five ERA. In 2022, it got better and he approved, but that was a guy just repeating a level. He's 25 years old. So he's just not exactly on the radar, especially in a system that's pretty flush with starting pitching prospects. So I think my overall evaluation is difficult, but I would repeat that this is the time you actually said it really well when you have the luxury and if you have the luxury this is the time to speculate early on on these type of buys here's what's encouraging that pitch mix obviously is encouraging like I mentioned I love the change up oh I mean I like seeing guys like that's why

Jay Jamison got me so excited was he pulled that Hunter green throwing that slider more than any pitch in his debut this season. Is that Brito with that change up? If that is going to be a high whiff pitch and he uses it so much, that's going to work in favor. I had an over 35% K percentage and I was like around 5% walk percentage. Those are absurd numbers. So I would want to hold him to see if it repeats. Because if it repeats

and then we are going to actually be seeing this at somewhere between a 30% K level, he might be a K minus walk percentage guy of 24, 25. And that is elite. And then the Yankees are not going to have him out of there. So if you can afford to speculate and hold

and stuff like that, I think it's a great idea. I think that's why I would permit 12 teamers to go pick up Bryce Terang, get some guy off your bench. Like not to bring it back to this, but would you hate dumping a guy like Tommy fam or Bryce Terang or a burrito just to sit on your bench and speculate? Like, let's assume I know,

I know a fam just had a day by the way, but let's assume a guy like him is your backup outfielder. Do you think it's horrific to dump a guy like that? Or Michael Conforto, who's even struggling, though he might be a fifth outfielder, for a Brito or Terang just so you can kind of wait and hold? I don't think it's a crime to drop Fam because I think at this point in his career,

in a 12-team league, Tommy Fam is right on that replacement line. Does a little bit of everything. You could do worse, but little bit of everything. You could do worse, but the point of this is you could do better. And I think in a 12-team league early in the season, you want to try and do better because there are so many roster

spots for major league teams that are still unsettled. Second base was unsettled for the Brewers. It's still unsettled right now. The back of the rotation for the Yankees with the injuries, still a little bit unsettled. Take advantage of these opportunities. Find the guys that... Think more about the early part of the rotation for the Yankees with the injuries, still a little bit unsettled. Take advantage of these opportunities. Find the guys that, like, think more about the early part of the season the way some people think about spring training. Like, job battles to me, they don't really happen in spring training, even though we try to pretend that they do.

They're always happening. They happen year-round. They happen from the opening day until the beginning of the next season because you have guys coming up at all different times and all different timetables. You've got guys going to the Fall League and getting extra development time there. It's not just spring training when jobs are won and lost. Especially lost. I think that's the part of this game that's so hard. When is Tommy Pham done?

He's been such a good, undervalued player for so long. When is he at that point where he's a semi-regular? Is he there right now? Because I sort of think he is. And if a player is falling into that trap in a 12-team league, I'm willing to be wrong. I'm willing to say, yeah, the playing time's not there. I need someone who's going to play more. I need someone who's got more

ceiling. I'm going to make that move. I think Tommy Pham, the deeper the league you play in, the harder it is to cut a player like that. Because you can keep clinging to the balanced skill set, the recent track record, the deeper the league you play in, the harder it is to cut a player like that because you can keep clinging to the balance skillset, the recent track record, the lack of an everyday job becomes less important, the deeper the league,

right? So that's the, that's the really tough. So it's like sliding scale for a player like this. That's interesting. You say it like that because like on the inverse picking, getting a guy who hits like a Bryce terrain or a burrito, if he were

to stick in those bigger leagues would be astronomical like the value is worth more like in a 10 team league cutting tommy fam for um bryce terang it's almost kind of like whatever you know like there's so much replacement value kind of across the board but in a 15 i understand what you're saying with the depth with tommy fam but to speculate on the rookies i think it's just a little bit more open the only other thing i would add too is i agree that jobs are always in contention and they can be won and lost but there's definitely percentage changes with teams like i think the probability of a reds pitcher coming in and vying for a job is astronomically bigger than a Yankees pitcher coming in and stealing a job or something like that. Like the probability is relatively low, but if you have big, big results,

35% plus K percentage with this wipeout change up for multiple starts, then you're going to start, um, then you're gonna start forcing hands. And that's what I think makes him interesting. It's just when it starts coming to big decisions, that's where it's like Brito is not exactly the guy I'm trying to make the big decisions on right now. I'd be more aggressive on a guy like Bryce Terang, who I think has a better path than I do Brito. But let's not acknowledge that that start was really great.

By the way, Jared Schuster made his debut for Atlanta and got optioned down. Max Fried's going to go on the IL or has been placed on the IL. So they can probably set this up and bring Schuster back into the rotation if they want to. If they want to. I don't think they necessarily are going to do that, though. I mean, look at the mix. It was a four-seamer change-up slider.

Four-seamer, it's averaging 90.1. How many starters right now do you trust with an average fastball at 90.1 i mean like what isn't springs doesn't like to sit around 91 um that's even a tick above that i think in that first start against the tigers so yeah i mean it's few and far between you know my favorite stat of his was was his k per nine which was which at first i was like oh was that his era no it wasn't because it was 1.93 his era was six points higher than his k per nine i would pretty much say this this is a pretty good marker i think you'd agree dvr if a guy's era is higher than their k per nine we should just move on we should not be interested that's a yeah

that's a bad one and Dylan Dodd had a really great spring and he's going to get the opportunity I think today though I don't feel really great about that Schuster just wasn't like a big strikeout guy and I agree the mix wasn't anything super exciting change up got a couple whiffs but um yeah the fastball I don't know what the fastball setting up and I don't I don't know what you do here with Schuster. I know what I do is I have no interest whatsoever in him. It was a really bad debut and a lot of warning signs. I would keep him at Gwinnett and see how the season goes and look at him again in 2024.

That's pretty much how I would handle Jared Schuster right now if that were the decision I had to make. Send him to driveline for the season. I would send his April and May at driveline, please. If only. If only weine, please. If only. If only we could do that early in the season. If only. Wouldn't that be great?

Wouldn't that be great if driveline created a little summer league? They have their own little early. You know how there's all these guys that full season. I know baseball's changed in their minor leagues because we no longer have like rookie. Well, the low, low a rookie ball levels. The short season balls. What I'm trying to say. You know, we only well the low low a rookie ball levels the short season balls what i'm trying to say you know we only have full season and then rookie ball i don't know i feel like that'd be a cool like april thing for driveline to host some type of like evaluation

tournament where you could send prospects and stuff like that of any creed it's almost like their own little mini afl at driveline and they just absolutely tear players apart all the stats are out there we could all watch it it would be amazing it's like a combine combine powered by driveline and it could be a wave of the future let's look to the past let's go to a ghost of prospects past Mackenzie Gore is healthy again which is kind of a big part of Mackenzie Gore being the best possible version of himself that he can be what What did you think of his season debut, his Nationals debut as well? Five and a third innings in that one. Did miss some bats, had some issues with walks, but was getting some swinging strikes.

So I would say this is probably a little more good than bad, given what we've seen from Gore to this point in his young career. Yeah, I'm glad we came back to this. I actually put this on the sheet for yesterday because I was kind of locked in and tuned into that start. I will tell you, I was actually impressed, even though the results aren't quite there. I think we're at a point where like Mackenzie Gore is just not consistent. And I don't know if he'll ever be consistent, but his fastball really seemed to be getting in on guys. Like his curveball is still one of my favorite pitches that I've seen for ages, but something we saw different in this start from the last start. First off, we saw an uptick in slider velocity that was up by a mile per hour from last year.

He also down ticked the curveball a little bit, but he switched his usage and he went slider 22% of the time where it was only 15 last year and his curveball went a lot lower. What that ended up doing is that pushed the whiff rate on the curveball up. The slider was relatively effective, but the highest whiff pitch was the fastball. Didn't seem like these guys were able to understand where that fastball was going.

And it was pumping in though the velo wasn't up. It was almost the exact same he had a 36.8 percent whiff rate and it he really seemed to be finding some command with it and he would pair it with a couple like wipe out sliders low in the zone which look really good so my only point to this is he found his fastball again which was completely lost for years. I have a very vivid memory. It was actually at the Brewers complex. This is like two years ago. And we kind of thought he was lost. And maybe this is even last year. And he was, he didn't pitch for like the first month or two. And then he ends up starting like some type of rehab assignment in rookie ball. And this is McKenzie

Gore. Who's like a top prospect with the Padres at the time. And I watched him pitch and he had 17 year olds just crushing baseballs on him over on the Brewers. This is a 17 year old Brewers prospects. A couple of good ones in there. But then after the game, he was nice enough to like want to chat and stuff and talk to him. And I was like, so, you know, what's the plan after this? And he was like, I don't know. And I was like, you don't know? And he's like, I'm not really sure. I'm not sure if I'm going or I'm staying. And I found it very odd that like, I felt like he was put in this place of,

he just didn't know what was happening. Somehow the Padres were not able to fix him and work with him. And he didn't know what was happening. He felt kind of lost in the world. I think he's found consistency now and you can see it in his pitches and his confidence level. And that's what I like. I don't think he's going to be a top can see it in his pitches and his confidence level.

And that's what I like. I don't think he's going to be a top 10 or 15 SP or anything like that, but his fastball was setting up those secondaries. His slider looked absolutely on point and I'm actually pretty encouraged. And I kind of think he might be a guy that I want to buy back in on McKenzie Gore. So yeah, there's a couple of things here. If you're watching us on YouTube, I've got the four seam chart from his first start up on the screen. And those are good locations, right? It's inside on the hands of righties.

It's up around the top of the zone, top inside corner, and it's upper third of the strike zone when he's in the zone. That's a really good heat map of where a fastball can be really effective. And I think it's also interesting. I'm looking at the fan graph scouting grades on his pitches and it looks like the last time they they updated those for gore was just last season in 2022 the fastball was grading out as his best pitch then right it's

a 60 grade fastball 50 slider 50 curve 45 change 35 with future 40 command that kind of speaks to what you were seeing that inconsistency so i think it's one of these things where you have this opportunity on a player like Gore. You can see our faces again. You have an opportunity when the ceiling has changed. This is kind of like the younger player version of the Noah Syndergaard conversation on the Monday episode. There's like prospect fatigue, I think is real.

People have that with Mackenzie Gore. Then there's the disappointment of the injuries. Then there's being on a bad team. And then there's bad projections for this year. The bat has a 466 ERA and a 141 whip for Mackenzie Gore. So very few people in the fantasy

community are excited about him. This is actually the buying window. Keeper League, Dynasty League, Redraft League, every kind of league. This is your chance. If you believe in Mackenzie Gore, this is the time to go get him. So I guess the broader question I have for you, Welsh, does he beat those projections from the bat? And if so, by how much?

I mean, what is a reasonable expectation for this version of Mackenzie Gore figuring it out potentially on what is a pretty bad Washington Nationals Squad this year. Probably the worst rotation in baseball. Give me the projections again. The bat was the worst at 466 for the ERA, 141 for the whip, and even low for the K rate, 8.1 Ks per nine, 20.7% K rate, just under four walks per nine. So right around a 10% walk rate. Yeah. So what I think we could have here with McKenzie Gore I don't know if the ERA is going to be great and again I'm not trying to

sell like this crazy crazy top end but like if I'm playing in deeper dynasties and stuff I want to buy McKenzie Gore right now just in case it happens I think the K numbers are going to be the big key to the value I don't think he's going to have wins because of Washington I think he could creep in the tens it could be maybe somewhere between nine, five and 10, which would beat the projections on that. I think he can drop the walks into the threes, which beats the fours. But I do think the ERA might inflate a little bit. It might still be for like, okay. I think it could be maybe like a four, one ERA with an expected, an XERA of maybe like 3-9, something like that. Or, you know, a Sierra that's sitting in that general lower range. I just think the strikeouts

are going to go a little bit higher. I think the walks can come down. Confidence, I think, has always been his key. His delivery looks a little bit more simplified. The fastball is getting on, guys. I don't know if the shape is changing a little bit. And like you mentioned with the command, I think he's a projection beater this year because they're garbage the projections are garbage across the board i think we'll walk out of it as like oh hey next year mckenzie gore is a player that we can reasonably draft and in a 15 team i think that's a guy like i said i want to go pick him up he's not a good trade guy because who the hell has him but he's a guy i'd want to pick up off of waivers to see now you know you can go get beat up in his next couple starts but i was just very encouraged by it and

this that's why i want to speculate okay there's one other angle i think i should take here if we're going to talk about mckenzie gore and i think it's just looking at the upcoming matchups and figuring out where and when are you actually comfortable using him in these spots so his next turn on the road at Coors, okay, no, no, we're not doing that. That's this week. So even if you picked him up over the weekend or were thinking about it, he's on your bench if you picked him up,

and you probably didn't even burn the roster spot in some leagues. After Colorado, the next turn lines up for on the road against the Angels. And if there's a pitcher type that I'm really unsure about using against the Angels, And if there's a guy, if there's a pitcher type that I'm really unsure about using against the Angels, it's actually left-handed starters because they've got some righties that can do a lot of damage up and down that lineup now. Yeah, it's a good point.

I think, and I'm setting myself up here, I don't know if it's like a complete dismissal of the Colorado stuff. Like, I think like clearly, like why would we want a guy like that in Colorado? I don't want anybody in Colorado. It's just like, I don't know.

Ryan McMahon is one of those forces in that lineup that I think he can get to. It's his slide. Like his slider is so key to me. He was so, he had guys just whiffing, just swinging through that slider that that's where I think the difference maker is to your point though.

Like, yes, you could maybe get to Otani who can still hit lefties and then you go to Trout which is part of a problem and maybe it's not maybe the next two starts are not places you want to put him in especially to inflate your stats but I would I would want to have him on the bench and just see because what if what if one of those two works let's say one's not good let's pick whichever one you want DVR it could be one he goes five he gives up four and runs, he walks two and he strikes out four, you know,

and it's not a great starter. Maybe he gives up a little bit more. But what if another one of those is good? What if it's a little bit more of that? Does that change any of your two moving forward? If two of the first three had those strikeout numbers and the 10K per nine and walks were a little bit more manageable and ERA wasn't inflated, would that get you going?

Yeah, probably. I think he's rosterable right now in 15-team mixed leagues. I don't know if I'd be stashing him in leagues more shallow than that right now. He's more of a watch list, wait and see sort of player for me in redraft leagues. But as I said before, keeper, dynasty leagues, if you're interested, this is the time.

This is your chance because if he pitches well, people are going to start clinging to the expectations from Mackenzie Gore that they had a few years ago. Those will start to bubble back up. How funny is it going to be too because like everyone has Mackenzie Gore could have been had free for multiple years and then he has like a good starter

to in there. Everyone's going to be like, well, this is Mackenzie Gore guys and he was once a top prospect and everyone, we're all going to roll our eyes. He's going to be like, well, this is McKenzie Gore guys. And he was once a top prospect and everyone, we're all going to roll our eyes. He's going to be a super eye rolly trade candidate. If it works out. I'm kind of excited to see it. Cause this is a guy I've literally followed his entire career.

And I hope he can continue like another one. That's very interesting is like, he was able to keep the hard hit numbers. He had a 45% hard hit rate against last year, 18% in that first start. And I think that might be really key to that, you know, keeping pitchers off. If that slider is

working and he's commanding it, he's able to do more damage with that fastball. And as you saw, that inside fastball on righties or lefties is really going to be something to play. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like...

Like... life's a trip make the most of it at best western let's move on to some early triple a observations we mentioned this one in passing on the monday show brandon fought first start at reno was not good the four home runs sort of jump off the page. But when you took a closer look at the underlying numbers, was it as bad as the surface line would lead us to believe? I don't know. There's a couple things with it. I went and pulled. There's a fun little trick you can do to get some of the savant scoreboard stats

with AAA games, and I was able to do that to get a little bit more. So here's what we had out of Brandon Fott. So the bad, like you mentioned, three and two thirds, five earned runs, and he gave up four homers, which is not great whatsoever. You don't like that. It's the PCL, which might be a little bit more of a crutchy thing that I give you guys, but you know what? It's still the PCL.

It's warmer weather and stuff like that. And that is a little bit of his crutch. It's early season stuff. He only had nine swing and whiffs, which I don't particularly love, even though he had the strikeouts. But a couple things to take a look at. 36% CSW percentage and a 41.2% K percentage.

I think something to maybe look at was he got super heavy fastball. And that's one of the things I loved about him is what he can do with the pitch mix and how he can end up hitting the zone. He was 73% fastball in there. So there's a part of me that wonders, did he not have something and know it in this start? Or maybe did they want him to pump heavy fastball in this? Did they ask? I don't know. You know, we don't know the intricacies of this with, not easy to say for me, with Brandon Fott. Because that's not like, I don't think he's a 70% fastball guy.

That's not who he's going to be. So did he just know early on he didn't have something? Did he not have the slider going and that might be why we don't freak out and why i would 100 go and buy for the people that are like oh my god brandon fought he didn't get called up it didn't work it's gonna go to dray jameson like i think the k percentage and csw percentage make me feel pretty good regardless of the homers dvr but i don't know if you feel differently i i do look at the underlying numbers to start like this and usually take comfort in them especially in pcl environments so i'm not

panicking here if brandon fought is the one prospect i'm holding on a bench right now and it usually is one just to give some context many leagues i play in have seven or fewer bench spots you can't stash minor leaguers. It's a redraft format. One dead roster spot is what you get. And sometimes it goes to an injured player, so you can't even hold a prospect. But if Fott was my guy coming out of the draft, I'm waiting another week or two to see what happens because Mad Bum looks cooked. Zach Davies isn't good. Anyone could just get hurt, and that creates a spot. And I think Fott is still pretty high up in the pecking order. So I wouldn't be panicking based on this start. He's still one of

the guys you could stash. This is always a question of who do you really want to stash, though? And a lot of the fast starters that we're talking about today at AAA are players that could get called up reasonably quickly. I think the other one that could be close is Brett Beatty. I think many of us thought there was a chance he was going to break opening day roster with the Mets. And if they go a few weeks, they're not putting enough runs on the board, he's coming up because he can help them. That's what he's going to do. They'll find a fit for him defensively. They'll play Eduardo Escobar a little bit less.

They'll change things in their outfield rotation a little bit. They'll hit Daniel Volga back a little bit less. They'll find ways for Beatty to play. And this is a guy that tore up the minor leagues last year. So I think Beatty is firmly on the list of players, the short list of upper-level minor league guys that

I think you can justify using a roster spot on in these first couple of weeks because the impact should be pretty big and the timetable probably isn't too long for him to get that look with the Mets. Also, Francisco Alvarez was pretty good as well. He was kind of showing off in the early—I think he even stole a base. So my question would be, let's say you had the same issues pitching and hitting-wise.

What are you going to prioritize? Are you going to prioritize Beatty, or are you going to prioritize Fott if you had the option between them? to prioritize are you going to prioritize Beatty or are you going to prioritize Fott if you had the option between them because I do believe I'm actually shocked that the Diamondbacks didn't cover up something with Madison Bumgarner to just not have him out there they said everything looks good and he's in line to pitch on Friday thank god it's not Thursday the game I'll be at um I thought that was going to be Dre Jamison I thought they were going to throw him in there but whenever it happens Dre's the first up I have no, I would bet money, hard money, that Dre Jamison is the first guy up.

But then like to your point, Brandon Fott is next. So knowing that he might not be the first guy if there's an injury and it goes to Dre, though they could bring Brandon Fott up and put him in the bullpen. Or Brett Beatty is also maybe not the guy if they wanted to DH Alvarez. Which would you prioritize stashing the

hitter of the pitcher more likely it's baity i think with the mets being this sort of all-in team they're not they're just not going to play games with him if he comes up any hits he plays flat out the diamondbacks to me as much as i like them as much as they could be a sleeper to be in wild card contention this year they could still be a little more up and down or in and out of the rotation with Fott because of Jamison. Ryan Nelson's in there right now. They've got a couple other depth guys that don't have the ceiling of those three that could occasionally take starts depending on how they want to schedule things out. So I just feel like there's a slightly elevated risk of games being played with thoughts role compared to Beatty's.

I just think Beatty is going to come up and he's going to play once they finally make that commitment. I still feel relatively confident in saying, I think by May 1st, both of these guys are up. I really do. Like I just don't see, and I stand firm to this,

the diamondbacks can look at themselves in the eye and justify like guys like how theyies and madison bum garner assuming like brandon fought gets his fix which i think he will i think we're gonna see a different pitch mix in his next start i don't think it's gonna be 70 plus fastball and i think that's gonna help and i think you're gonna see strikeout numbers go up so i think there's a little buying window back on fought after like a really bad start you can you could talk to the guy and be like he had four homers that's not good and you could probably get him a little bit cheaper so i think he'll recover and i think that just leads to like the mets looking for more offense baity provides more roster flexibility as far as defensive stuff goes than alvarez would and i think both of these guys definitely could be up on their respective teams

may 1st and then you can just prioritize bat or pitcher. Yeah, because you look at what's blocking Alvarez. Omar Narvaez, probably more of a backup at this stage of his career. I know Tomas Nito is a good defensive catcher. I don't know if they want to carry three catchers. They have to kind of figure that out and do something with the roster.

Something could just be an injury. That's always the path that could just create a spot that completely changes how they see things. they see him like also as like a dh like he's been more of a primary dh if they wanted to have a dh and a third catcher they could but i think they would look at like if escobar is struggling baity can play a couple different spots and baity is just he's like mr max ev he is consistent 110 he just puts up 110s all over the board, and I think that's something you want to get in the lineup. I know Eno and I both were kind of just shocked that Beatty

didn't make the roster. It really seemed like it was something that this team would do. Just one of the few teams that just didn't want to make that commitment to a rookie, and they moved on. Very strange to see them make that choice. Looking real quick here at a few other fast starters at AAA,

there was one other, Tyler Soderstrom. Yeah. Really nice opening series for him, I guess is what it amounts to. Different situation, though. I don't really think anyone's trying to stash him in mixed league redraft situations. I'm sure there are AL-only leagues. If I had been an AL laborer this year,

Soderstrom might have been a reserve pick for the possibility of an August-September call-up. Oakland, to me, because they're being so frugal, because they're, I think, trying to pull a real-life major league heist to end up in Las Vegas or something, I have very little confidence that they'll take the best players and play them as soon as possible. So there's a few things working against Soderstrom that seem to be out of his control right now. But I'm curious if you have a different take on when he might come up. No, I think, I mean, you kind of nailed it, but I think there's a couple things with it. Like he's just off to a ridiculous start. He's in 556.

He has a homer. He's leading AAA in doubles right now with three. And one of the best ones out of this was, uh, he put up a one 13.5 max EV against Brandon fought on. I believe that that was that Homer. And I don't know if you're looking here, but I'm pretty sure that would probably be near top 10 of max EV and major league baseball this year. If we had the,

I don't even think the leaderboard on baseball has even been pushed up yet but you know he wants to stay at catcher and I also think it might I don't know how advantageous it would be for the team to have like a guy like Shailene Gilears and then Soderstrom come in and do that but he's consistently played there he can play first which they could throw him in

I just think he might push the timeline the A's are the great divider here like what the hell are they going to do? I don't think any of us know. But I think Soderstrom starting at AAA tells us a big story. He could come in and be a second catcher. He could start playing some first. He could DH, maybe even play in a corner outfield spot

that they may want to just get going and see their guys. But I think the probability or possibility of it being where we probably would have said like August, I think it can move up. I think it could be June or July. I just don't know how they would keep him down if he's hitting 300 with a bunch of homers and huge max EVs. I don't know how they would keep him down past June or July if it continues. So I think that's something to monitor, at least on the waiver wires and stuff,

that I think Soderstrom could be a guy and he is stinging the ball early on. Yeah, you look at how they've been using him throughout his time in their system a little more a catcher than at first base I wonder I look at the Blue Jays what they're doing at Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen and I think more teams if they had two guys they liked two guys that handled the staff well could do all the things you need defensively and could be you know potentially above average the bat at least Jansen was last year With Soderstrom and Langeleers, I think you have that combo, and if one of them's even good at playing first base, you don't have to do catch or DH. You can do catch your first base and DH, and then kind of mix and match whatever veteran spare part types you want to have to kind of fill in the gaps around them, but you take so much wear and tear

off of a player's legs if you can split that workload behind the plate i think that's a really good thing to do tactically with your roster so i don't think we're going to see what we saw with sean murphy where it's going to be you know a relatively short part of his career spent in oakland before they say nah we we don't we don't want this guy anymore we um you know we have too many catchers i don't think that's how they're going to play it i think they're more likely to mix and match with those two guys than to trade one. Yeah, and the bat's live. I mean, Shane Langoliers, I think, is the better defensive guy. He's got a great arm. I remember him throwing out Corwin Carroll at third base in the Futures game. I mean, it's a huge,

big arm there. Tyler Sutterstrom's bat is what is going to get him here, and he can DH. And that's why I just think they're going to push him a little bit further. And I think the timeline moves up a little bit and I would be interested because I think he is, he is hitting the ball at such a degree that like he could really be a sneaky fantasy value piece on which is just a garbage team. Like he's one of those guys that could start out hitting five for the team. As soon as he were to come up,

I just, like you said, it's the A's. I don't think it would be anytime soon or any other team would probably push him up, you know, into mid-May or early June or something like that. But it's the A's, but it's something to monitor. I think from a prospect, there's a lot of older guys and stuff in AAA. He's had one of the most impressive debuts as far as like the valued guys on like a top

100 list. Now we got a few other notable assignments. I want to run through a list of players that I just thought were worth mentioning today. You can tell me who you think has the most interesting assignments or which of these assignments might actually mean something that we should make actionable. Jackson Churio starts off at AA in the Brewers organization.

Jason Dominguez doing the same with the Yankees, AA for him. The Guardians have a lot of pitching prospects. Tanner Bibby going to AAA. Gavin Williams going to AA. That one kind of stood out to me as maybe just a little bit of a peek into how they see those guys in terms of being reinforcements for this year. Junior Caminero, a really, really nice prospect in the Rays organization starting at high A, which is a pretty aggressive assignment for him.

And Drew Jones, which I think you mentioned a few weeks ago, actually starting in Visalia. That's single A, which basically a pretty aggressive assignment for him. And Drew Jones, which I think you mentioned a few weeks ago, actually starting in Visalia, that's single A, which basically is low A now. They don't call it low A anymore. They just call it single A, but it's the one that's not high A, so therefore it is low A. Yeah, by virtue of the numbering system and the system of it, it has to be the low A. Yeah, and also I believe Jackson Holiday is doing the same thing. He's going out with Drew Holiday, so they're both going to be in the low A versions of it. And, you know, just talking about Drew, what a, I don't know if you saw them, but what a little run he got.

He played in a minor league spring training against Shohei Otani, and he was able to get a hit. He was able to play up against a couple of major leaguers. He's done well. He's done really well. I think those are the type of assignments we expect to see. I also just throwing this randomly out here, but the rumor had been floating around that Ethan Salas,

the young 16-year-old, could start at low A. I think he still might get there. He's starting here in extended spring training, which started yesterday on Monday, and he's going to play. But he could pull a Jackson Churio where he goes out and they sent him out a month or so later. Worst case, he plays at rookie ball. I think that's interesting.

But as far as like impact early on, you know, I've been pretty steadfast at like Jackson Churio. I think they are going to just run through double A for most of the year and then go to triple A. He goes to the AFL and then he is a potential to break camp next year. I think that's the timeline. So he's not a guy of all the guys on this list. Tanner, I believe it might be said by B.

Oh, really? By B. Yeah, that's what for Buddy Frank Stanfield told me that the pronunciation, we keep going back and forth about it. I thought it was a baby. He's one that I really like because I think he is the next man up. It's funny you put because I put a couple names on here. You put a couple.

I almost put the Gavin Williams one at double AA in that I think Tanner is the guy that is going to get the next big run, and he put up some phenomenal numbers. And I would not excuse the potential of Jason Dominguez at some point this season, later. For him to go to AA, he didn't have a great statistical AFL, but underlying stats I think really played.

He had a really good spring training, and he ended at AA last year. I really think there's a possibility for some type of late-season thing with Jason Dominguez if the numbers continue. But the Bybie Bibby would be the play I'd be most interested in. Yeah, Tanner B., one of the more intriguing pitching staffs. Tanner B. Let's call him Tanner.

It's like we're all working at Costco together. It's Tanner B. You're on the register. We'll get a pronunciation. You know the jerseys? They'll have the last name and then the first initial if there's someone similar. He'll just be Tanner B instead of whatever his last name is. Yeah, it's a little league jersey for one of the Guardians top pitching prospects.

But yet another success story for them developmentally. A guy that picked up some velocity. And I think for some, draws some comparisons to Shane Bieber, just in terms of the backstory and the big progression forward. To expect Bieber-like returns might be pretty lofty for anyone because Bieber has been fantastic. But definitely a pitcher that's on my radar to get some big league innings this year. You would hope the pronunciation is Beebe if we're going to do all these Bieber comparisons too, just for the sake of the name pronunciation. Someone will correct us.

There are very few baseball things that I want, but what I really want is a comprehensive pronunciation guide that includes the minor leaguers because it starts off where these guys, they're complex ball, low A single a they're there we guess we guess wrong because of reasons we try our best and then we're all saying guys names wrong for years which is just dumb we don't need that so people i mean people did it with jared kelnick uh for a year and i know i've told this story so i apologize to people but like mine literally is me going to players and talking to them and that was my thing with kelnick i'm like it's kelnick right and he said yes and people were like kalenick and

and uh kellenick and i agree with you you can't even trust announcers though sometimes because i know some people are like well you got to watch them first off i watch a lot of minor league games like on ml i milb.tv but i don't listen to them because the audio is trash but also the amount of like whether it's afl or whatever i will go and you will hear an announcer three different versions of a name it's crazy my best process and i try the best i know you know gets crap about it and people love to give me crap about it when they can i'll literally just talk to players and ask them. And I did it with, you know, here's one. Everybody calls him Hedbert.

It's Edbert Perez. It's Edbert with a silent H. And I think a lot of people know that now. I literally just reaffirmed it and asked him when I saw him over in Brewer's Camp earlier this year. I'm like, it's Edbert, right? And he's like, yep, that's exactly it. Because people screwed up.

Andy Pejas. It's Pejas, not Pages. It looks like Pages. It looks like, it's Edward, right? And he's like, yep, that's exactly it. Because people screwed up. Andy Pejas. It's Pejas, not pages. It looks like pages, but it's Pejas. So, you know, I don't know. Be gentle with all of us. We try. And it would, the greatest thing on the planet would be that comprehensive pronunciation guide. We would all be so grateful. When's the last time you had a chance to talk to Luis Robert? Luis Robert? I mean, never. Never, yeah. I've seen him, I've seen him, but I've never. Maybe in the AFL I might have had a word

or said something to him and just shook it off. And by the way, Luis Robert Jr. Right, Luis Robert Jr. And I'm still shook because one of the very first stories that was written about him when he signed included a pronunciation of his name, which is not the way we're saying it right now, which is the way I've been saying

it for the last several years. But I finally I'm giving up. I do in the Robear. I'm not doing Robear anymore because it's not. Yeah, his agent is actually his agent. I remember when he got to Camelback Ranch today, his agent said it's Robert. But I know the Robear was sitting out there and it's always been Robert. Yeah. It's extra confusing, but if that's, if that's what it's supposed to be, then that's what it's going to be. And if that's an adjustment he's made being here,

great, fine. But it screws us up though. Like I will have a guy's name in my head for so long and then it'll be an adjustment. And I'm like, no, I don't want it that like,

let me have what I had before. That's what I want. And sometimes we stick to it. So if you've got to be, if you've got to be a Robear guy, do it. But it is Robear Jr. when you do it. That's Luis Robert Jr. now, and I'm just accepting that until I'm told otherwise. But if you want to take a W instead of the L that I just took, get a subscription to The Athletic. It's a dollar a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels.

You could also type in theathletic.com slash baseball show if you're watching us on the screen because that's the banner I put up because, ha, yeah, I'm tired. On Twitter, you can find Welsh at isitthewelsh. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Thursday.