Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - MLB Draft and Futures Game

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

Eno Sarris and Chris Welsh are breaking down Paul Skenes big numbers, Dylan Crews comps, Jacob Misiorowski's insane Stuff+ numbers and much more. Rundown Jackson Holliday to AA - 9:33 Blaze Jordan to AA - 12:12 Pauk Skenes - 17:01 Driveline Stuff+ vs Eno's Stuff+ - 18:56 Where does velo pass shape? - 23:10 Dylan Crews comps - 30:27 Max Clark - 37:21 Wyatt Langford vs Max Clark - 38:15 Tommy Troy - 42:15 Mini FYPD Rank - 45:17 Jacob Misiorowski's fastball - 47:17 Mick Abel - 51:47 Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/mo for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Get 25% off your order when you go to jamesallen.com and use code: RATES Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Derek Van Ryper is currently trekking across the country, I believe, right now. He is doing the dubious task of 28, 30 hours. What do you think? What do you think that is to Wisconsin? It's got to be 28 plus. I've done a lot all the way across, which I would, you know, six days is more leisurely paced. Five days is, you know, days is uh more leisurely pace five days is you know 12 13 14 hours you know so uh I once did it from Miami uh to San Francisco uh in uh four and a half

oh my god really that's really that's awful I have no real traveling in me. My wife was from Wisconsin and she did the drive to Arizona, maybe even to San Diego. And it was, I think, close to 28 hours. So probably spread out between two or three days, but that is where Derek is. He is currently making that trek out. Uh, did you guys have a goodbye brew or anything like that? Did you guys have a final meetup? Yeah, we did. We went to Rizzotti's Alpine Inn, locally known as Zotz. And they don't have a great beer list, but they always have Pliny the Elder on tap. And it's kind of up in the foothills, so you're kind of just sitting in the trees drinking Plenty of the Elders. Not bad.

Oh, that sounds pretty nice. And then you also got to do a little bit of that over in Legoland just the other day as well. Any good beers to speak of? I did not drink at Legoland this time. No, no, I know. But I did have the ramen. The ramen is really good. Everything is ramen. The ramen is really good. Everything is ramen.

That was actually pretty good. And I saw the Go Extreme Sports Show, which was BMX bikers and like like scooter. Like, you know, like like but not like not like yeah like the like the little flippy ones like yeah yeah yeah like the kind of the the razor scooters there you go uh and a skateboarder and at some point they all got on the half pipe at the same time and were doing uh backflips and stuff so that was pretty cool you know i I had I didn't know what to expect really going in. And some of it, of course, is cheesy. But, you know, the acting that they put around it and stuff.

But that's just like that's true. It's like for kids, right? It's like they I don't know, it's maybe it's required for, you know, kids shows like that. You and I, DVR was asking this and we'll get to baseball here in a second. But he was like, why? I don't understand why either but you and I are just on the same schedule of life right now because we also we did the Great Wolf Lodge within the same week I am literally going to LA in two days and I will be at Legoland in three days as well and maybe Universal so you and I are on that same

our kids of similar ages you know exactly that's the thing about lego land that's it's great for younger kids it's better than disneyland for younger kids i think because there's a bunch of rides there where there's almost no line because you know it's for the like kind of three to six and seven year olds um and you know that's nice to just have a bunch of rides where you can just step in and just do it real quick. Um, and then the, they have these video rides that are a little bit more for the, like, you know, like video gamey, um, interactive, interactive kind of game rides. And those are great for the, like kind of, uh, seven to, you know, 11 and 12 crowd. I think my, uh, my oldest, uh, we're nearing the end of his wanting to go there so much,

but he still gets a Lego at the end of it. Yeah. He still gets the set. He's like, Oh, I get to buy something. Right. That's exactly.

That's how my kid is. A lot going on, obviously, because we are an all-star weekend break right now. As we're recording this, we got the home run Derby coming up. We've got the all-star game, but what is prevalent to this episode that we do the focus on is we have got prospect stuff

because we're going to be talking about the Futures game. We're going to be talking about the MLB Draft where the first two rounds just finished last night. We're actually literally, as I'm talking right now, the third round is about to start in the MLB Draft. But we're going to be talking about the top five. We've got some interesting numbers on Paul Skeens, and we've got some interesting comps that Eno has put together for Dylan Cruz, which we're going to talk about here shortly. Did you see the commish get booed?

Did you see his face, too? I saw him get booed. There was, like, he took it in stride, but when the Astros came up, you could tell he was just done. He was, like was super mad. The Mariner fans and the Seattle fans were giving it to him really hard. They did a good job.

The Astros pick, but he was getting a fair amount of it the whole way through. I was doing some TV stuff. I heard from one source that he was getting booed every time he stepped on the stage. Every single time he was getting stepped on. I didn't watch every single one of them because I was doing the TV,

but I happened to be focused on the Astros one, and they went really hard, and he got frustrated. Yeah, yeah, he got really frustrated. And then Raul Banez obviously comes out to do the second round, and everyone was ecstatic. So I don't know. It's kind of funny that they did that. There were some hometown picks too.

Dylan Noble or Dylan Noble? Meyer Noble? Noble Meyer. Noble Meyer. Picked by the Marlins high school tall... Jesuit. Same school as Mick Abel. The Jesuit high school.

That seems like a pitching factory there. There were some local ones that got some nice And that seems like a pitching factory there. It's starting to be. There are some local ones that got some nice love. Yeah, there was. And also one of the cool things, not to jump into it right off the top, but we got the first pick ever for the extra compensation for rookies starting the year. So Julio Rodriguez last year came up day one, played the season, one rookie of the year so julio rodriguez last year you know came up day one played the season one rookie of the year so we got the very and it was the mariners so the mariners at home home city

that was the second pick and that pick was uh johnny uh famagio i think his name was i might be saying it wrong now my brain is mush but he's the first ever compensation pick for baseball, changing their rules. And it happened to happen there. And they hadn't, the Mariners also had back to back picks after the first round. So it was pretty cool. We'll like I said,

we'll talk about the cruise. Farmello. Yeah. Johnny Farmello. Farmello West Westfield high school, Virginia elite speed, 18 year old center fielder. And they had taken Cole Emerson and then Ty Peet.

They had three picks in the top, like, 30 picks overall. That's pretty impressive for a team that's, like, kind of, well, they're not there yet, I guess. But they're marching their way towards respectability. I mean, this is a team that should be good soon, and they get four picks on the first day while they're, their way towards respectability. I mean, there's a, there's a team that should be good soon and they get four picks on the first day while they're, you know,

it's kind of a, maybe they're there, maybe they're doing something here. That's kind of like a two timeline approach where they're able to, able to, you know, get some nice picks and also, you know,

improve the, the major league squad. I think also it's something that teams are going to have a really hard look at because this is it. They like it happened happened last year this is what it visually looked like and that was a pretty good pick because it also was a little bit higher because like the mets they messed up and i think their pick moved down and blah blah blah but it's like having the 30th pick in the draft the astros the astros are still being penalized right yeah i think the astros yeah they well they had the 28th pick yeah it's it's i'm

a little confused on the whole process of it but either way it was it is annoying when you look at the the list of picks and you're like okay so there's 40 picks in the first round well how does that work a and b and c and then this is like the ppi yeah it's super weird but the diamondbacks will get one next year because of corbin carroll and you know pen because it's if you they win rookie of the year and then they're in the top three race of um cy young or mvp so in the on the al side they get they wouldn't get two picks if he won the roy and was okay. No, that's just qualification. And you can only have one eligible player to do it. So technically multiple teams could do it like in just throwing out some

weird hypothetical. If like, and I don't see why this would happen, but you know, Corby Carroll were to finish top three in, in NL MVP voting. And then Ellie Taylor Cruz were to win. Well,

I guess Ellie didn't break camp, but if he had broke camp, that would be a scenario where two would get there. My whole point is Corbybin carroll will be one it would be weird for corbin girl the top three in the mvp and not win roy yeah exactly hunter brown has got the potential to do it and the al if he were to win the um rookie of the year award because he broke camp and what that i think does is it really puts a little bit more pressure on teams to give this a bigger harder consideration for next season and on teams to give this a bigger,

harder consideration for next season. And the transition to this is a, we've had a couple of promotions. The most important, I just wanted to mention before we talk about the futures game was Jackson holiday was just promoted to double a. And that was actually a big focus on the futures game when they were, they had multiple interviews with Jackson holiday and they kept asking him,

Oh, you're getting excited to at some point get to double a and he was just kind of like shaking his head. And he, cause he probably knew literally the next day they were calling him up, but it's because I had this conversation. This is a high school kid. One year ago was just drafted.

He was the highlight of the draft. Number one, overall last year, he's touching double a on july 9th you know that's the promotion when they're actually back which means outside shot you can get to triple a this year but more importantly this team probably gives a very very hard look at him in spring not only because of the extra compensation and then putting themselves in with Gunner, but he might be ready and he might be able to contribute if not right out of camp

next year, early on in the season. And maybe those extra pick considerations, now that we have like a very tangible view of what it looks like, might push teams like the Orioles, the Diamondbacks, or any other team that really needs to be highly competitive to start pushing these players, even into, I argue, the top two picks we're going to talk about here in a little bit. Teams like Washington and the Pirates might want to consider these very major league-ready close guys to come up next year because these are the teams that need these extra picks.

They need to be able to take advantage of it. Especially when I was talking about the Mariners 2 timeline, right? It's like, for the D-backs, how great would it be to have one of their best seasons in recent years, have Corbin Carroll, and then also in the year after they win 92 games or something and pick in the back end of the first round, be like, aha, but we get two picks in the back end of the first round, you know? Yeah. You know, that's, that's a great thing. I mean, when I look at the, the draft day, you know, grades from, from Eric Longenhagen over

at Fangrass, what really sticks up to me is when you only have one pick on the first day, you know? And like the Yankees just got George Lombard. Like, that's good. They got a pick. But, you know, it's kind of nice for other teams like the Phillies got Adam Miller, a third baseman. That's great. But, you know, it's way nicer to be like, hey, we came away with two or three kids on the first day. Yeah. And so I think that's that's going to be a big deal. The other name that you had on the rundown as being promoted to double A's Blaze Jordan. Blaze Jordan was came on my radar recently because he is a guy that had interesting feel for it. His strikeout rates are low, but his swinging strike rates are high. But his his power was not hitting his potential.

I mean, he had 55-60 raw power and 35-55 game power on Fangraphs. And he had ISOs around 140 and 150 last year. This year, he's gone on a way-to-bat program with the Red Sox. And there is some correlation between bat speed and a negative correlation between bat speed and whiffs there is a correlation between bat speed and just missing more uh but he managed to pull the feet where he lowered his swing strike rate lowered his strikeout rate and improved his slugging percentage all with the use of weighted bats and coaching

and just some general progression, which is obvious for a 20-year-old. But now his upside looks really, really fascinating to me where you could get a guy that, despite some higher swinging strike rates, might be able to hit for a high average while hitting for power. I don't know that he's going to steal a ton, which is funny because his name is Blaze,

but he might steal enough to keep people honest. I wonder what this sort of pressure this puts on Tristan Casas. This year, Blaze Jordan has split time almost equally between first and third. Third seems like it's capably handled right now in Boston. So I don't know where Blaze Jordan is going to end up and what it means for Tristan Casas. But I did want to throw in a plug there for weighted bats. I do think they work. There's been peer reviewed research on the subject. And here's an example of it. Want visibly glowing skin in 14 days?

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You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces, a message from the government of Canada. Was it organizational? Because you mentioned this some month or so back about David Hamilton was another one of those guys. He had a big resurgence in the minors on that Way to Bat program. Was it like all minor leaguers kind of across the board? Yeah, I wouldn't say that it's prescriptive. Like everybody has to pick up a way to bat and do it.

It's more that they identified certain people. It is pervasive and it is part of the new approach to minor league hitting in Boston. They hired Jason Ochart away from the Phillies. And they also hired. No, no, no, don't do this. Soterapolis. Sorry, John. They also had John Soterapolis away from driveline.

He was working with Lars Knutbar. Anyway, the two of them are big proponents of bat speed. And so, you know, if you have great bat speed, you don't have to do the way to bat program. You know what I mean? It's more for guys that I think they identify guys who have good hit tool good sense of the strike zone and could you know have better uh better bat speed and blaze also just throwing out was like a kind of one of the very first of the viral since say like max clark someone who just got drafted is a

very social media based guy blaze was that too at 14 years old he's the guy who was hitting like videos of 500 foot homers like the power has always been his game but as far as like how he's developed you actually see it very like it's weird a ball in 2021 21 strikeout rate 194 iso then he came back and repeated in 2022 his strikeout rate went down to 16 but his iso also dropped then he goes to high a uh that same year 25 strikeout rate iso tanks and now he's back up with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career and the highest iso outside of his complex league run so you can see development linear. It is up and down and you can see how that's working out and the progress that's going on. But I thought those were two really

important promotions that are happening. And this is the space. There might be a few more guys, all-star break, you know, organizations looking because they're also going to be bringing in this whole new talent pool, which, you know what, let's flip this. Let's go. Since we've talked so much about the MLB draft, let's actually flip and jump into that. And then we'll go into the futures game since that's a little bit behind us. And the, the draft was fascinating in that the best players actually went, there was so much subterfuge subterfuge about like, it might be a high school guy and the pirates are trying to save money to pay guys later.

And it ended up just not being the case. The top five were maybe a little bit of different order of some of the players. You ended up having Paul Skeens go number one overall, you know, best pitchers and Steven Strasburg to the Pirates. Dylan Cruz, who I have from a fantasy perspective is my number one. Goes to Washington.

Stud, five-tool high school outfielder, Max Clark, goes to Detroit. Wyatt Langford just falls to the Texas Rangers right in their lap. I don't think they expected it. Big, huge college bat. Goes four. And then Walker Jenkins, high schooler, goes to Minnesota. So let's start with Paul Skeens, Mr. Enosaurus, because he has got some fascinating stuff. Lance Brozdowski did a great video breakdown this weekend, which he was able to give us some of that just crucial.

It's gold in the prospect world or the evaluation world of just like back-end analytics that you can't get. Because there was a lot of conversation about the dead fastball. And he wasn't able to show us that there's essentially a two inch difference between the vertical and horizontal movement in skein. So it's kind of like, you know, dead zone. So the movement isn't there.

Cause there's a lot of discussion about the shape of Paul skeins, fastball being something that people were concerned about. 209 strikeouts, 15 plus K per nine in the minors this past year. Sub one whip, ridiculous stuff. In all of the great breakdown, you get information about what Skeen's stuff looks like. He brought up that he had driveline stuff plus numbers. And these were the two most important ones. 132 stuff plus on the fastball, according to driveline, 122 stuff plus on the slider. So the very first question I would be excited to hear is what's the difference between driveline stuff plus and your stuff plus? And then however you want to maybe approach this with Paul Skeen's big stuff.

approach this with Paul Skeen's big stuff? I think there's a little bit difference in approach. I mean, for them, Stuff Plus is a training statistic that helps them understand how to improve a pitcher's arsenal. And if you think about that, if it is more for training than it is for sort of analysis and appraisal, then you want it to be faster. You want it to work on different platforms. So like you want to be able to be like, oh, we don't have Hawkeye in here. So we're like, it's fine. Our Stuff Plus runs on TrackMan or Rapsodo or whatever,

you know, so it has to be a little bit more fluid between different data and technology whereas my stuff plus is for the mlb and uh and it's i said the mlb is for major leagues uh and so therefore it's hawkeye based that leads uh to something that can be a little bit better. And mine might be some of the seam shifted wake stuff because that's Hawkeye really captures that data best, I think, out of the different data, out of the different technologies that are out there. But theirs has some aspects that are better, too. online super fast and they can tell you in a throwing session what your stuff plus is and you know they can use that to help you kind of be like no uh let's let's throw one with a little bird or let's throw one with a little more horizontal see what the stuff plus says so it's a little bit more about how you use it um but you know fundamentally they uh were grown from the same petri dish if

that makes sense uh they have the same kind of machine learning algorithms behind them in a very similar approach. So their scaling is also different. So I don't know exactly. Their scaling is larger. So I think a 132 stuff plus on driveline might be something like a 110 stuff plus on mine. We have studied a different scale. I'm very glad you said that because i was about to ask if you could translate it the interesting stuff that you get in some of

the break obviously we just watched paul skeens you can see how he attacks the zone it's a fast ball that can hit 102 uh he's got an interesting lower extension that lance had kind of likened it to bruised arc lateral and when you kind of watch you can kind of see it because he just doesn't have like full extension through, but the secondaries popped as far as swing and miss goes, the numbers that he had 66% swing and miss on his slider and 56% swing and miss on Paul Skeen's changeup, which I really like changeup hits around 88,

but the fastball is going to be the big key. It sits inside the zone more. And I'm curious that your take on the shape idea, because the, I think it was, you have to forgive me. I think it was like 14 vertical, or it might be 12 vertical,

14 horizontal, or it's within two of each other. What do you think ultimately when you hear the inside the zone more, you hear the shape is bad, but it's 102 and commanded. What do you ultimately think that's going to look like? You said one 10 stuff plus maybe outside of the one 32 from driveline, but like, how do you think your analysis is going to break down that fastball when we

actually get to start seeing some major league data from it? You know, I think one name that comes to mind kind of is Shohei Otani. And I only say that because Shohei Otani's shape on his fastball is not necessarily ideal. You know, it's not it's he does not make his bones, you know, throwing throwing the perfect. He's not like a Bryce Miller. You know what I mean? Like it's not it's not the best shape ever, but he throws it hard. And so there's like still a lot to be gained from throwing hard. And so show you, Tony, for example, has a 115 stuff plus on his fastball, on his four-seating fastball, and a 103 on the sinker.

So that's something that comes to mind. Not necessarily that they have the same shape, but that you can still get really far in this game just on Velo. And so that's part of what they're drafting there. Yeah, where do you think Velo and Shape, like where does Velo overpass Shape? Is there the, I've seen some people do breakdowns on like batting average versus,

one of the most interesting things I saw Chris Clay did, which was you didn't see crazy batting average differences on 98 to 102 Velo's in the major leagues, but you did see a slugging percentage dip of like 50 points from 98 down to 102 VLOs in the major leagues, but you did see a slugging percentage dip of like 50 points from 98 down to 102. So there's a lot less slugging that's happening. But where do you think the VLO just overtakes this

shape conversation at what point? If ever. No, it's actually a very complicated question that is super important and that teams need to figure out and that i'm just at the beginning of sort of trying to think about so i'm not going to give you an easy answer but um for example christian javier right now is really struggling and uh he used to throw 93.8 with a good vertical break from a low slot now this year he throws 92.6 and

there's a story between between chandler roman i that breaks down a lot. Now this year he throws 92.6 and there's a story between Chandler Roman and I that breaks down a lot of this, but now he throws 92.6, so he's down a tick, right? From a slightly higher spot, meaning a slightly lower vertical, you know, induced vertical break. All those things have put it together and it's gone from like a 110 stuff plus pitch to a 90 stuff plus pitch in one year. And so if you're working for a team or if you're just listening to this and, you know, you know, trying to think of something you could research, precarious fastballs is something that is something you could think about. And what the idea is, which fastballs have great shape and would be great with two ticks off that's sort of another way of talking about your drama right

like like would bryce does bryce biller need to throw 96 or will his fastball because it has such great you know vertical break will it also be good at 94 and 93 and 92 you know what i mean um so there's something that we can take we can take stuff plus as a sort of idea and kind of start to now go into these little sub rivulets and try to figure out oh okay so if i'm trying to project project a guy that's like christian javier right now but i know that next year he's probably going to lose velo because everybody kind of loses velo over time then i'm going to actually project him to be worse because his fastball is precarious. So I do think shape matters and I think Velo matters.

And you're just losing Velo over your career. So I would rather draft someone that had great shape and then maybe try to coach up the Velo or I don't know. and then maybe try to coach up the VLO or I don't know. But in Skeens' case, I think one thing that helps him is, you know, we're not talking about signing him to the Garrett Cole $300 million 10-year deal when he's, you know, whatever. You're saying, do I want him when he throws hard? And for the Pirates, right? Like, that's what they're thinking about.

And, yes, you do want him when he throws hard i'm trying right now to uh find a comp did you what did you say the uh the vertical numbers were oh man i want to say it was like 14 16 or 14 12 it was i think it has a lot of side to side right yeah so 14 16 sounds maybe right and a lot of it was added too by the way they did a good breakdown on the draft coverage of like, he added like five miles an hour. He also changed his release point, his extension, when he came over to Ellij.

I mean, there were massive changes that were done within the last 18 months to the player that he is to not say like what will happen when he gets to the majors if someone tries to mess with it. But he's got, I want to say it's the horizontal was bigger because it's more like a two-seam. I think that's what Lance even described it more as a two-seam because there's a lot of ride on it.

It's just the vertical and horizontal meet. It's not – if it was those two numbers, it's not amazing because Andrew Haney, 14-16, Jesus Lozardo, 14-14. Jesus, Lizardo, 14-14. Lizardo was used as a very similar extension comp, by the way, when looking at his actual full extension from the mound. Lizardo was one of those guys that popped up as well. Yikes, which is not great.

I mean, let me get Lizardo's really quickly. It'll be fascinating to see where you have it because the slider plays up so much because of the fastball in college. The changeup I really liked, but as you said, like stuff plus numbers haven't like, they don't fall in love with changeups. So I'm going to be very curious at like when the data gets gone.

I mean, if Hazel Lizardo is a comp, I mean, you also have to think that Luzardo has, in some essence, I think, a precarious fastball. If you look at Luzardo's starts or you just look at his career, he's been so much better when he throws harder. And I don't think he has ideal shape. But right now, he has a 103 stuff plus on the fastball, 98 on the sinker, 110 on the slider.

I think that Skeens' breaking ball is better than Lizardo's. Lizardo's is a bit slurvy. But if you kind of look at where his fastball velocity right now, Lizardo's at 96.9. His worst season was the year he got traded. He was 95.8. So there's a little bit of precariousness maybe to Lizardo's fastball. But Lizardo's a pretty good outcome, right?

I mean, we've now got 200 straight innings of a 3-3 ERA and a K-9 over 11. And I think that Skeens has some things that are better than Lizardo's. If you think about the breaking ball and the changeup, they might be better than Lizardo's. So, you know, that's a good place to begin with. Also, 1-1 pitchers, it's not terrible. I mean, we got Cole and Strasburg as 1-1 pitchers recently. And then we had Mize. And there was one more that was meh.

Um, I mean, I always think back to make able, make able near the top, but yeah, I mean, there's been a couple that have worked out. It's going to be fascinating because where he's going to be able to live off.

If his fastball does get hit a little bit in the majors, how up will this, or even in the upper minors, how will the slider and changeup work in the minor leagues? So Paul Skeens, did you have anything else on Paul Skeens I didn't want to move us on if you were still comping? No, I've got, let me see here, every number one

overall draft pick in history. Let's see here, Casey Mize was one, and then... This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply.

Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night, kids. Good night, Mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Brady Aiken, Mark Appel. Yeah, Mark, yeah.

But Garrett Cole was a good one. Steven Strasburg was a good one. And David Price, that's a good one. That counts. And as big a stuff as anybody he's got. Luke Hogarvar, not good. Which one? Luke Hogarvar.

So it's about 50-50. Well, I mean, and you're going to bet on a guy that throws at 102 and has 50-plus swing and miss rates on his secondaries in the minor and has made big changes little thing to mention was just there's some some some usage some heavy usage yeah 120 plus every single time he goes out still throwing 100 that's that's fairly stressful so 100 number two dylan cruz dylan cruz one of my absolute favorites in here we've talked a lot about him.

Some interesting college data, only a 14% chase rate. He had a max EV of 112.8, which is pretty solid, but he had an incredible, and some people are very dismissive of it and it's fine, but average EV I think is a fun thing to look at. And he had a 95.7, which was the highest of any of the college guys that I had. So that just shows consistent hard hit stuff. Yeah we talked about a couple weeks back where you know he's hitting 107

opposite field though lowest strikeout rates high walk rates makes tons of contact you went to work on player comps before we started this so i think this is uh the guy of guy i think this is the guy of guy. I think this is the new face of the organization. You lose Soto. You bring in a guy like Dylan Cruz to be the guy. And I think there's a huge, huge floor with a pretty dang solid upside. I don't know where the power is ultimately going to go. And if he runs a little bit more, but talk to us about what comp machine you ran through for Dylan Cruz. Well, we had a surprisingly disappointing zone contact rate.

I had, I think, 84.5 and you had like 83.8. So I took every major league qualified hitter that had a zone contact between 83 and 86 percent. And that ended up being uh about 30 hitters um and then i took uh that those 30 hitters and um i then sorted them by chase rate because we both had plus chase rates uh i think you said 15 i mean that's like the best in baseball have 15 that's 14 actually it was actually 14 that was just what i had yeah better and crazier i don't have any 14s in this group uh but i then by sorting by oh swing uh i i got the guys who don't have the very best zone contact but do have a very good eye. And I also put pull rate in there.

And I should have put quality of contact in. But then you start really whittling down to like, you know, one guy as a comp. The way that I have this here, the right handed comps are Brian Reynolds, Ian Happ and Pete Alonzo. And I actually think this describes fairly well three different avenues for him to go. If he kind of focuses on the power and works on maybe pulling the ball a little bit more, that'll be the Pete Alonzo outcome where he's got the biggest pull rate of the three, but he has opposite field power and he's a total masher. And if that's the outcome for Cruz, is Pete Alonso in the outfield, thumbs up.

If he ends up on the outer end of his strikeout rate, like if it's Ian Happ, his 25% strikeout rate, but a 17% walk rate, that sounds very cruisian, right? That could be a total outcome for Cruz where he's a high walk rate, medium to high-ish strikeout rate, power speed in the outfield, maybe a slightly better Ian Happ. I don't want people to think that like, oh, Ian Happ is not great and he's saying bad things about Dylan Cruz. I don't think that to think that like, oh, Ian Happ is not great and he's saying bad things about Dylan Cruz.

I don't think that's what I'm saying. It's like you can be the first pick in the draft and be a successful major leaguer and still be Ian Happ, and that would be a great outcome for your team. But the third one is Brian Reynolds, and that one I think is if he focuses more on the contact and spraying the ball around and, um, has the better strikeout rate, uh, for that kind of zone contact rate.

So I think that's in between the three of these, you've got some pretty interesting comps, some pretty exciting players, I think. Um, and, uh, you know, he, he could step right in in. And if he did something like that, you know, Ian Happ but stayed healthy, you know, or Brian Reynolds with slightly more power, like all those outcomes sound pretty good to me. Yeah, Brian Reynolds is the one even before I'd even heard any comps or ran anything was kind of standing out to me. Similar max EVs, at least what we had with Cruise, it was like 112.8. This year, 112.6 for Brian Reynolds. There you go.

Crazy high average EVs, like I said, for Cruise. 95 isn't going to be the major league one, but Brian Reynolds, 91.9 this year, which is an above average one. Barrel rate pretty decent at, what is it, 12.9. He has a little bit higher of a launch angle than Cruz, at least in college this past year. Cruz had around a nine, but under 20% K rate,

almost double-digit walk rate. I just think there's very similar. I think Cruz's upside goes beyond. It's a bigger, more impactful Brian Reynolds. And when you think about that, those start to become like top two round fantasy players. You know, it's like the, I don't want to say Mookie Betts, but it's starting to get in that general area if cruise taps into 30 plus power and steals

he's like a 30 20 guy with a 300 batting average yeah because he i mean the guy that's a young bryce harper in a way yeah and i think some people for obvious reasons will put some of those comps on there but he had 422 this past year with a 561 obp and an almost 700 slug almost that's where that's where i get lost on on college stats honestly they're all so good i mean did you see the first round the first round picks yesterday i was watching and they they all had ridiculous numbers there was guys with 470 averages in like 570 hours like what that doesn't even make sense to me so it's tough when you see like a guy that's at like, you know, Maryland or something. Yeah,

exactly. And they're hitting like four, well, high school numbers are absurd. Cause it's, they're putting out like a max Clark who went three hit like 600. In high school. And I've,

and I've, I've been the guy keeping score in little league. I know, I know that's little league in high school, not the exact same thing, but I know that there's a guy like me like a dad in the stands trying to chart these high school games on the game changer app i bet you they use game changer too you know probably there was something when max prep i think had max clark who went three over all to the tigers we can just do

quick stuff on these other guys uh they had his career high school stats at like 560 with 88 stolen bases and 13 career strikeouts. It's not even that far-fetched to think that Max Clark's dad might be the one keeping him. Totally. That's a hit. This umps an idiot. That's not a strikeout.

Max Clark, five-tool player, big run, good hit. There was a little bit of subterfuge that, like, maybe people thought that Wyatt Langford should have gone over him. Oh, yeah. That was a bit. Max Clark was in conversation. The rumor was he had had conversations with the Pirates to go number one overall. So this one, too, real quick.

Max Clark, like I said, five tool, you know, very analytical kid, hardest trainer, weightlifting. He's got huge quads, can run like the wind, can hit the ball really well. Actually really good plate presence on being able to adjust in, you know, hitting across himself to push an opposite field or just get more loopier to try to pull the ball. Very, very smart kid, just as the high school guy versus White Langford, who pretty much rated 60 plus on the hit and power. Big, thicker guy can run some project.

It was up against better SEC talent. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, playing up against the highest level in college. Yeah. So that's a big, big difference difference where if you think these guys are somewhat similar you might want the guy who's four years younger well and they're physically very different because white langford is a just a he's a big bulkier guy i think it's like six one though but just bulkier physically a little bit shorter swing like maybe first base or corner outfield like he's not gonna he's not gonna be a center fielder or whatever yeah i mean i think they would probably try him there but he's got the feel of like a right fielder but it's probably 35 plus power with the homer power with good batting average and the ability

to steal anywhere from 10 to 20 stolen bases where max clark i don't know if the power is quite there but he does look like a guy that could steal 30 or 40 bases, hit 20 to 25, and hit for average. So both of those guys are very interesting in fantasy, both really high-end picks. And then the last one in any takes you have on these guys was Walker Jenkins, who is physically different than all these guys because he's 6'3", 6'4", 220 pounds plus,

got a beautiful swing, big power. He's just a young projectable guy who I guess had some handmade injury this past year. So missed a lot of circuit baseball time. So those are very three, very different prospects. They all have power potential, but if you want the five tool, it's probably Clark. You want the safe bet with big power, it's Langford. And if you want to dream it's walker jenkins and that's how the top five on the draft came out i don't know if you have any clark langford or jenkins thoughts no i just uh you know high school high school is a is a is a crazy thing for me um you just i think you have to rely a lot more on the eye test uh with because we just don't know what you know what the fields are like

like i did a thing on on on cuban guys coming over and some of their some of the play that sometimes they play their games on the nice field and you know sometimes they play their games on the one that's by the hospital you know and like the one that's by the hospital has rocks on the infield and i've definitely seen a big difference in fields around, you know, even in Palo Alto where the fields are pretty nice. So, you know, I just think that, you know, the defense, the quality of defense opposition, the quality of pitching opposition, like I almost think that the numbers are useless.

I have to come with very heavy regression and just sort of mostly doing this on eye tests which makes me uncomfortable because i don't think eye test is my best uh my best way to appraise players but i don't say i don't think that's true for everybody so you really have to rely on your scouts i think with with high schoolers and uh and maybe that's a little different with high school pitchers because at least you, maybe you can find some shape data and some, you know, at least you have VLO and maybe some shape data and you can, you can do some stuff plus type analysis.

But with hitters, I feel like you're just looking at the swing and, you know, saying that looks nice. I think that's also why a lot of MLB was really trying to push this combine because at the combine, they were able to run these high school guys out on the screen. When pitchers were going, you would see vertical horizontal you'd see v you would see all the data

you want up on the screen there and same with hitters when they were going evs but that's also why by the way plenty of players did not take part in like max clark did not take part in this where he could have i don't know if it had anything to do with anything but you know there were players that chose not to hit just be there do interviews and stuff like that but i think to your point there's plenty of people that are uncomfortable without having some of that data but you know that's why it's the track record on high school arms is probably one of the worst in the draft well that's also why i guess they were like i'm not taking a high school arm in the first anymore well in the marlins just didn't care i i definitely want to talk about

the future two high school arms in the first two the best they took the best lefty and the best ready i think noble meyer could be special i really do he is six foot five power fastball power slider super smart kid i love him i think nice on him i think he could be the best in the class it's not paul skeens of all these guys 100 um he that was one of my favorite the diamondbacks getting tommy troy and uh lou james grover who grover is just a i think he's an analytic i think he's a guy we're going to be talking about in the future sub 10 k rate in college this year it was really interesting because we we got to see him a fair amount of him near the end of the season. Oh, yeah, he's in your neck. Out here at Stanford. And he was outperformed by all the other players on his team

in the regional and the super regional and in Omaha, not in terms of approach to the plate, I don't think. I think he has a really, really solid approach to the plate i don't think i think he has a really really solid approach to the plate and you could see his physicality and um i think he's going to be a good hitter uh but in terms of just just i think the kind of small sample stuff that doesn't matter as much like he just didn't manage to get a homer or a hit while we were watching and so i kept telling my son like yes that guy's really good he's gonna go in the first round and we kept waiting for him to do something and like he got a couple walks that's the worst feeling i have that a lot when you get a complex like i'll be like i'll be focused

on some guy who's been in the dominican summer league and he's got these crazy stats like oh my god okay let's go you sit there and they're like two grounders a fly out and a strike out and you're like ah what the that's what you to see is he actually any worse than i thought or is he it's just like one of those weeks where you got one i think i think he was just taking a lot of walks you know i think he has a very strong approach to the plate where he's not going to give in 13 k rate in the zone 11 walk rate hit 400 had a 700 slug one 14.3 max ev tommy troy uh 92 and a half percent there was there was something in was it the um the long and hanging um saying that pack 12 hitters haven't worked out um i mean andrew vaughn's been pretty decent that's a pack 12 hitter but i i i have to like

sit and think through all the guy that's just the the first one. Adley Rutschman's a pretty good Pac-12 hitter. That's right. That's a pretty good one. Those are the two that came to the top of my mind. But it might be a longer track record. The recent history of Pac-12 hitters in pro ball is not good, and the Cardinals are familiar with that. They took Chase Davis.

And they took Chase Davis. Maybe Long and Hanging is saying the recent history as in the very recent history. I mean, I think that Vaughn and Rutschman are pretty recent, though. That's pretty. It's like 2019. Maybe we're just looking at the two that succeeded, and there's a lot below that that haven't.

There's a ton. And Chase Davis is one of those guys that I really liked as well. It's a fascinating draft. We'll probably continuously break it down. These guys will sign. They'll get to camps. The top five is what you guys really care about but there are some fascinating stories and some really good values of players uh matt shock anyone that you would take uh in fantasy uh that like different from where he was slotted i think i would take

those i got all of the hitters over paul skeens honestly i would i would just move all those four hitters above paul skeens and i think uh i would just have I think I'd have the older ones higher just because in fantasy we can't wait forever so that's funny you said that I have Skeens three I'm taking Langford and Cruz over the two high school guys I think Skeens is going to produce quick but if you're talking about guys that really differ I have two opposite in ones chase davis is the guy that we just talked about i have him at like six or seven on my list and he went what 21 to the cardinals so i've got him very very high beautiful swing everyone comped to carlos gonzalez um big hard hit numbers and then the other end of it is jacob wilson who went. I have down into the 20s because he has absolutely no power. Huge contact percentages in the 90s on 92 plus EV or 92 velocity above overall contact.

But his average EV was like 83 on what I saw, 102 max EV on a short sample size. And he got picked by the A's? At six. So it's like... I don't think the A's are necessarily going to put him on a way to bad program he got like by the a's at six so it's like i don't i don't think the a's are necessarily gonna put him on a way to bat program and get the most out of them if they do it would be great because of the contact but he's a guy that went high that i dropped allen's never heard of way to bats i've i've made sure of that i asked oh really yeah did he do the shake his head like i don't know what you're talking about yeah exactly and nick allen seems like

does that sound a little bit like Jacob Wilson? Yeah. Great contact rates, great defense. Maybe Vegas will know what weighted bats are and Oakland just doesn't. It's pointing out there might be reasons behind it. So yeah, chase Davis would be the guy that's much higher than it was. And Jacob Wilson would go lower. Hey, let's talk about the futures game here for a minute though. I will tell you. wasn't like super exciting like a lot of pitching i mean nobody no hitting there really wasn't much i mean literally on this list as far as hitting uh nassim nunez got the mvp off of one hit where he got a couple rbis he was fun but i had like you know lawler went over two with two

strikeouts churio went over four with two strikeouts Churio went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts just some of the big offensive guys it was about the pitching and you know hat tip to to DVR and I for talking about it last week I said on here Jacob Mizorowski was going to be the guy that everyone's going to ooh and ah about from the futures game and sure enough that's exactly what happened 18 pitches 14 first strikes, was hitting 102. And there's this interesting anecdotal thing, and then I want you to go through the Stuff Plus numbers, where someone had said, I think it was StatCast,

said he threw four fastballs, five curbs, seven sinkers, and two cutters, and he disagreed. And he's like, no, it was fastball, curveball, slider, changeup. So it was a funny anecdotal like difference from what stat cast says to what the player says because they essentially put what is it a cutter and a sinker and he's like nope my cutter was a slider my fastballs were not sinkers and then um i don't even think and he said he had a change up in there was which wasn't registered but he looked insane ridiculous sitting the top of the zone he was the talk of the town talk to me about what you saw to jacob mizorowski with the brewers

yeah it looked pretty fascinating and i did see some conversation about whether or not his uh landing is funky and if he's uh you know if his mechanics are super clean but just in terms of what i i can see which is movement and velo, I was in the tank for him. I mean, 206 stuff plus on the four seam, and this isn't, stuff plus doesn't normally start with a two. There is nobody regularly throwing twos. And I'm not saying he's going to come next year or be throwing 200s regularly.

The one thing that happens in the futures game is all the starters are converted to relievers, right? So, you know, this all comes down off of a peak, The one thing that happens in the Futures game is all the starters are converted to relievers, right? Yeah. So, you know, this all comes down off of a peak. But it is still nice to see, oh, how does he against his peers, you know, even in this situation where they are throwing for one inning. And he was absolutely the best in the game by Stuff Plus. Have you ever? 131 Stuff Plus.

And we had it. Yes, it was a cutter. But, you know, best stuff plus in we had it yes it was a cutter but uh you know best best stuff plus in the game and best app fastball stuff plus and if the sink if there was no sinker it was 167 if that was the change up that's good you know like just lots of great stuff just good vertical movement and good uh and good velo have you ever seen a 200 uh stuff plus from a reliever or anybody like how many times have you seen a 200 stuff plus in any scenario i i you know actually in the futures game before well you know i think there was a 200 before oh really i'm trying to trying to think of who it was uh maybe it was bobby miller in the futures game before that makes

sense that i mean big huge fastball. So is there, was there any, did any worry come out of it? Like talking about the delivery or the funkiness, is there any non-starter worry or did you just take these numbers and go, man, start getting your Jacob Mizorowski, stash them away and see how he develops over the next year or two.

Yeah. I'm just, I'm, I'm not as worried about that. I mean, I think on the very extremes, it can be worrisome. Uh,

I think of Matt brash his head snap. Hmm. Oh, I don't think I noticed if he would. Yeah. I know what you're talking about with brash. I don't think I noticed Mizorowski. I don't think,

yeah, I don't think Mizorowski has that, but you know, if it's, if everyone's in consensus that it's a problem and it, and I can see it, uh, I,

I get it more, but this one is just a conversation that some people are having about the way he lands um and i feel like that can get cleaned up i mean adam out of you know uh you know sometimes gets too cross-body and he he like takes some uh he just takes some spray paint and puts a little circle on the mound when he's training and just is like i need to land in that circle you know um i think there's certain training methods that can help you with your landing style. I don't, I don't think that's necessarily something that's innate, you know? So I'm not, I'm not so worried about that.

I think also when you see like six foot five, six foot six plus pitchers that have movement, like a lot of movement in their body. It also looks a lot more uncomfortable because this is like, I think it's like six foot six Mizorowski. So when there's a lot of movement in their body. It also looks a lot more uncomfortable because this is like, I think he's like six foot six Mizorowski. So when there's a lot of motion in there, I think it just throws people off. Sometimes it takes a little bit longer to,

to, to come to fruition. I mean, there are examples in the major leagues of tall, especially lefties that have, uh, that have had taken a while to kind of put it all together. And some that never did.

I, I think it's Randy Johnson's the guy who made it work, but, um, that have taken a while to put it all together, and some that never did. I think Randy Johnson's the guy who made it work. Newcomb? Sean Newcomb? Yeah, was the guy where all the different pieces of the delivery didn't quite come together. Let's hope he's not Sean Newcomb. You got some interesting stuff, plus numbers.

I thought he had a pretty good performance out of Mick Abel who I believe started the game uh two strikeouts in an inning and I think he was like talking crap on Mick Abel earlier was was I yeah are you saying first round pick and you kind of rolled your eyes no Mick Abel no no no Mick Abel's fun I like Mick Abel I really can't the model really loved him 129 stuff plus on the curve, 121 on the fastball, 120 on the change. It was like one of the few change-ups the model liked in that game, and 114 on the slider. So even if you take the change-up out, because I think change-ups in two, three pitch samples,

I'm not going to report those too excitedly. But some of these numbers, like they're put you know in fastballs and breaking balls you know i'm not saying that like eight uh is enough but eight has signal in it you know there's definitely it's definitely telling you something and the numbers hadn't quite been there uh for the season on able but i think it was really good to see him get the start and those numbers pot again it was a smaller outing like you said but all 110 pluses with three of the four being 120 pluses i think is a very good sign against this competition and some traditional numbers that do speak to his excellence in the minors in terms of swing strikes and and strikeout rate uh a career

strikeout rate in the minors uh north 27%. So this is a good picture. I know that there's questions on his command, and I think that'll largely be what he needs to figure out more than anything else. You did something cool here, and this guy's name does not show up on it, but I want to get this list. Just wanted to point out I have been a huge fan,

and this is something I said to watch out for, wanted to point out I have been a huge fan and this is something I said to watch out for of Carson Wisenhut in his change up because I think it is the best change up in minor leagues right now he ended up throwing 10 pitches nine were for strikes and he showed off that change up which was absurd I want to say they actually interviewed Jackson Holiday about it and Holiday's like I knew it was coming, but I just couldn't do anything about it. Like he's like, it was a disgusting pitch. He's like,

I knew he was going to throw the change up, but I just swung through it. It's also like, you know, that kind of change up is, I think one of my favorite pitches to watch. I think it's beautiful because to me, it doesn't make any sense to make the ball move that way.

Yeah. It floats, it floats in and just gets under, but it didn't make this list because you put together the single the 10 best single and the bottom of the list is all change-ups uh oh yeah i didn't even notice that you're right about that but he didn't make the list so why don't you go through the 10 best single yeah the 10 best single pitches uh in the futures game were jacob mizorowski's fastball, Spencer Schwellenbach's curveball,

Jacob Mizorowski's fastball again. That's the sinker. The sinker, yeah. Clayton Beater's slider, Luis Guerrero's cutter, Sem Roberci's slider, Owen White's slider, Jacob Mizorowski's curveball. Now you know why he was the top guy overall. Joey Cantillo's slider and Mick Abel's curveball. Now you know why he was the top guy overall. Joey Cantillo's slider and Mick Abel's curveball. So obviously this model likes breaking balls, but I think having

a really good slider is huge for your outcomes because at the very least you can be a reliever. I think, you know, having a great slider, even in today's league where I had the piece last week on Friday about how hitters are hitting the sliders better than they have in the past um it's still one of the best pitch types in baseball and so being able to command it and throw it for action as well i don't think that i the high man on joey cantillo or anything uh but it does speak well to his possible outcomes and um i'm i i took away from this uh mizorowski is the real deal cantia might have something going on and mick abel is better than i thought mizorowski three of the top 10 single best pitches the only guy to show up on

this list twice which was pretty crazy. What do you got going on? Do you have, what articles are in line? We were just talking before we got on the episode here today. What's releasing this week? What's in your world? Yeah, gonna work on a piece

about the park factor in San Diego. It has changed from kind of the low 20s to kind of the hardest place in baseball to hit in the last couple years according to certain park factors so I'm taking a look into that this week and just about to publish on the blog if you are a betting type and if you're listening to this you might be I did my handicapping for the home run derby. So I don't know. It's not up yet, but it'll be up soon. And

the two things that I look at are barrel rates, which everyone who's listening to this knows, but then also something called a blast rate, which is how often do they hit the ball? 105 plus in between 28 and 32 degrees. those are the biggest home runs

in baseball those are the biggest home runs in the home run derby and the winner of the home run derby has been top four in the field in blast rate every single time so i haven't seen it yet i did i get a similar thing i was trying to take some analytical approach i went and looked at the it's funny the top barrel percentages from this homerun derby i wanted 15 plus i wanted 50 hard hit rate and then i found a guy that had a five homer expected home run addition in seattle from where he currently hits whoa and i picked adolis garcia yeah that's my dark horse i wasn't gonna i wasn't gonna say it because i the piece is gonna go up in a second but it's just a blog post just a blog post it's all right yeah so that was my guy adolis garcia is my dark horse he's top four in blast rate and uh the barrel rate thing is if you have a a bigger than five percent differential

off of your competitor uh you win uh uh 85 of the time oh that's very good and so he should win his first round which is uh randy rosarena yep um and then uh and then uh he's also oh wait no he doesn't have the five percent differential on randy rosarena but i just he shows up in barrel And then he's also – oh, wait, no. He doesn't have the 5% differential on Randy Rosarito. But he shows up in barrel rate, and he shows up in blast rate. He was my dark horse. Yeah, and he had this odd – it was 27 projected homers. When I looked at it a couple days ago in Seattle, which was five more than he currently had,

it was like the third most homers he would have if he hit all his homers in one park was Seattle, which was so odd. So I thought that was a cool little extra thing. Go check that out. You can go to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. If you're not signed up, you can go get locked in for only a couple bucks.

You can check out that article, everything else that is going on. Make sure you do so. Send good vibes out to DVR, who is trekking the country, and we will have him back soon and I think we got a couple more episodes coming up this week not with me but with Al Melchior and Eno. Eno thank you so much for hanging thank all of you guys for hanging out with us and we will talk to you next time right here on Rates and Barrels. you