Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - One Step Away

Episode Date: June 13, 2023

Eno, DVR and Welsh look at how close Luis Matos and Emmet Sheehan are to the bigs. Plus Coco Montes as a deep league option, Eury Pérez timeline becomes clearer & more. Rundown Who is Coco Montes? - 1:15 Owen White Call-up - 9:08 Could Jack Leiter be next? - 14:41 Eury Perez's timeline - 17:46 Mike Vasil - 24:40 Emmet Sheehan - 28:36 Luis Matos - 33:09 Marco Luciano Buy-low? - 40:57 Tyler Soderstrom - 42:42 Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/rates and get on your way to being your best self. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We have some clarity forthcoming on Yuri Perez. We'll talk about what the Marlins appear to be doing with him. Several players at AAA either recently promoted or playing well at that level who could be knocking on the door for some big league promotions and may get into some dynasty movers. Welsh has an updated dynasty rankings list coming out later this week, so we'll probably talk about that a little bit this week and a little bit next week, depending, of course, on where the wind takes us,

because as we know, the show goes any number of directions once it begins. But we'll start our branch today. Our first branch is a recent debut. Welsh, who is Coco Montes? He was called up over the weekend by the rockies and i think the general consensus in the fantasy community is if a rockies player gets called up especially with the rockies hitter we're interested in learning more about this player to determine if they can take advantage of the hitter friendly environment that is coors field and deliver some

fantasy goodness so i did some number scouting i had to wonder how much of what Coco Montes has done in the minor leagues is simply the by-product of playing half his games at high altitude, Albuquerque. A hundred percent good questions. And these are ones that I don't think any of us are going to have the answer to until we get like a good period of time and some context on him. But he has been a guy that's been on my radar. Cause he's,

I try as hard as I can in my development of like who I pay attention to with prospects. He's a total, not me guy because he's 26 years old. He's way over aged. He did two stints in AAA, two stints in AA. I mean, he just kept going. He's a age over level type of guy that doesn't necessarily just jump out to me, but throughout the minors this year, he's done nothing but hit. I actually, prior to the debut, I did put a tweet out that Coco Montes is someone you should pay attention to because this could be a guy because of what he did in the minors. And if he's going to get some run in the majors, that's what we do. He's second currently out for a couple of days now, but third in the minors in hits overall, 78 hits, 321 in the minors,

while also showing some good power. And then as you know, in the debut, he hits a walk-off homer. So I think Cocomontis, we look at high elevation and we focus on that, what he did in the minors. Well, he gets to go do that in the majors for the most part. This is just like a high contact guy. I don't think there's,

I'm not even sure if there's 15 plus homer power in there, but I do think this is a guy that could be one of those like prototypical number two hitters. I think he's going to hit for a good amount of contact and he's just going to be a source of where you're going to be able to pull in at least probably three categories. And if the Rockies were able to put him more in the middle of a lineup over time,

you could be four. But I think you're going to be looking at batting average. You're going to be looking at runs. And then somewhere between RBI and homers, he'll go. But he's not a big stolen base guy. I'm very much into it. I like the contact numbers. He was pulling in the minors quite a bit.

Not a big ground ball guy. Just gets the ball in the air. And he's a solid, solid hitter that's going to get opportunity in Colorado. So this is why I think this is a deep league look, at least for the short term. And hopefully they make like an investment in keeping him around for some time because nothing, nothing was getting accomplished in AAA. I want to say he might have been the minor league's hits leader until he got called up, but then a fellow prospect, Yonkil Fernandez, actually has taken over for him in Colorado, and Ronnie Mauricio is actually the number one hits player in AAA right now. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Players like this often slip through the cracks. I mean, they're not on prospect lists, not on top 400, top 500 lists, but they get an opportunity. They have ways of helping us. And sometimes in keeper and dynasty leagues, they end up being really good min bid or near min bid pickups because they play longer than expected. To be fair, I want to point out, I did have him.

I want to say he hasn't been on my prospect list for the year, and he's been inside the top 300 if people have paid attention to any of it. He has been someone that's been on my radar just because of his ability to hit. But your point is valid across the board. He just screams like 26 years old, Colorado, very, very minimal interest in it. But I think there's a lot of offensive potential. All he has to do is outplay Harold Castro. Oh, it's just Harold Castro. We lost DVR there.

But he does have to outplay Harold Castro because there's no Brennan Rogers as well. So there's really no one to take over the spot. I was just flying through the park factors for the different parks in the Rockies system. And I don't actually know in 2019 when he was an a ball i don't know what park that was because there's been all this reorganization yeah that's i was about to say i had an answer for you but you know what i don't because you're right they've reorganized so much and that's kind of the thing is he's been around since 2018 he was a 21 year old and rookie ball and that's how long it's this push has kind of taken pretty sure that double a is hartford uh yes and he had a 190 iso there and a park that

was basically fair baseball america says hartford's uh home run park factor is like a 0.97 and then uh then he went to albuquerque for two years where his home run park factor uh was 1.11 but it's not just albuquerque it's el paso 1.11 las vegas 1.27 salt lake is point is over one you know, that's a fairly friendly park. I would say it's generally a friendlier park, friendlier league than the one Hartford's in. Hartford does have Bowie in it, but otherwise they're more close to one there. In any case, I think that that league where he had the 190 ISO is pretty much closer to where I would think his true talent lies.

I would think he's somebody that could have average-ish power, slightly above average power, but he's packaging that with up and down walk rates and what I expect will be high strikeout rates. When I look at these projections

I totally understand where they're coming from this idea that he'll hit 250 with a large babbit maybe because uh Coors inflates the babbit a 27 28 strikeout rate yeah it's not my type of player yeah he's not I mean age aside you know just even the plate skills leave me cold a little bit but uh you know looks like power and a little bit of speed and some opportunity a 108 ice 108 max ev in in the minor leagues this year if you're sort of drooling of those uh those nice isos i would say uh be careful i don't think those are i think those are more mirage than anything. Yeah. And to, and just to last to add is what's interesting is through, if you want to look at it, this seven stops, if we're counting the major leagues at through seven stops, he's had a one 80 or higher ISO in five of those seven stops. There was a weird, really

out of pocket one in double a in 2022, but you know, it's something to watch with the contact changes. And you know, I should have pulled this cause I was looking here. I want to say when I was looking over, I've been getting better over time, I would guess. Yeah. And also what you've seen is you've seen, um, line drive rates go up, uh, over these last couple of levels, he's getting the ball in the air more home run to fly ball ratio has gone up and he's continuously looking to pull the ball even more. So I don't know, like these are the type of changes at those late levels. This is like late maturation,

but this is like maximum tap into what you have. So it's like, yeah. And that's actually the, the one nice thing about like a 26 year old debut is like, at least the dude is going to be at his peak. Yeah, exactly.

Exactly. This is like max effort, max talent of what he is. Is Coco Montes, a 12 team guy, man. But is he like our deeper league guys? I think it's worth taking a peek at DVR.

Unfortunately, one of the other call-ups that is a big deal that's coming up up right now i don't know if it is a big deal i think he sort of falls into the same bucket as coco montes which is slightly interesting in certain types of leagues probably not the more shallow leagues um but owen white is is being hauled up by the Rangers. And, you know, everyone's sort of pointing at the fact that his swing strike rate was down and his strikeout rate is down and, you know, pointing to things like his FIP and his ex-FIP and, you know, his expected numbers at AA this year of just being kind of poor. I will point to one aspect of his scouting report,

or actually two, that I find really compelling. Fangraphs gave him a 70 slider, and they also gave him 50-60 command. and they also gave him 50-60 command. That combination, I have to expect, is basically what the Guardians try to do. And they do pretty well. They sometimes beat my model.

They're considered a pitching factory. And if you think about it, having a 70 grade slider and 50 and 50 or 60 command, that's a real foundation. I mean, that's that's if I could only give you two things, that's great, because everybody always wants that. What's the third thing? Does he have a change up? Does he do this? You know, does he do that. But if I gave you just a fastball and a slide, you could command really well. Well, and the slider was really good. I think like your chances of,

of having a good outcome are way higher than if you didn't have those things. Like those are, those are some foundational aspects of a pitcher that I'd like. I'm interested to see how it all comes together. Cause I I've seen him on the backfields. I've seen him in AFL and yeah, I mean the slider is probably there. I've seen a on the backfields. I've seen him in AFL. And yeah, I mean, the slider is probably there. I've seen a lot of the curveball usage. I feel like there

was more curveball usage in the AFL. Fastball's fine. I don't know if the command is like right up there. Yeah, I keep going back to like Bryce Miller. I keep thinking about Bryce Miller right now. Bryce Miller just coming off of like a solid outing and he went right back to who he was. He was 73% fastball and slider. He was just 95 plus and slider and fastball. That's all he was. And he got both those pitches in the zone. He pumped the zone. And maybe Owen White was, you know, maybe his swing strike rate and his canine are down

because he was doing this curveball thing. Yeah, and that's where I'm going with it, is I wonder what type of pitcher he's going to be. I feel like so many of these guys have been these big primary fastball pitchers that we've seen. Maybe Tanner Bybee wasn't quite, but they all kind of have been that. Taj was one of the big differences. Most of these minor league guys, it's just been like really heavy fastball

and not completely unloading a lot of the secondary, optimizing these pitchers. And I just wonder who Owen White's going to be, because I don't think his fastball is on par with a lot of the secondary, optimizing these pitchers. And I just wonder who Owen White's going to be because I don't think his fastball is on par with a lot of these other guys. But if that slider is punching, then you got something there. So I'm just not like insanely optimistic.

I'm not the biggest Owen White guy in the world, but he definitely, you know, he's put in the innings over the last couple of years and AFL is a good little, you know, barrier of competition for him to go out. It's just odd that I didn't even see this call up before. He's going from AA straight up. So that's a pretty big push for Owen White. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example.

You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night, kids. Good night, Mama. life's a trip make the most of it at best western yeah that john gray injury that blister sort of popped up uh somewhat unexpectedly at least to me on monday so that's the quick adjustment

short-term deal huh yeah it could be like a spot starty thing's going to be a short-term deal, huh? Yeah, it could be. Like a spot-starty thing, yeah. Curious to see how it plays out, though. Because I think when you look at the Rangers, the questions you have are, okay, Sands to Grom especially, as they deal with probably more injuries over the course of the season, because every team will.

Of their depth starters, of their prospects, who can they actually turn to for high-quality innings? White was someone I was really excited about. And like a lot of people, I see the drop in K k's the increase in walks simultaneously while repeating a level and that really does lower my expectations a lot compared to where they were when he was pitching at double a before he got slowed by a forearm injury last year so it is weird to see the 70 slider with that 50 60 60 grade on the command, though.

That alone makes him pretty intriguing. And maybe they're going to use him as more of a glue guy in the short term before using him more in the rotation later on this year. Because ostensibly the plan is a Cody Bradford takes John Gray's turn. Cody Bradford does not have a defining characteristic that I would point to is really, I enjoy, I don't know. I'm just like, he's he 89,

seven on the fastball. So you must have a really great breaking ball. Maybe the command is there, but his numbers pale in comparison to own whites at the same, in the same places, you know, at virtually the same times. I'm sure he's in a lot of the same rotations as Owen White. So I prefer Owen White to Cody Bradford. And if anything turns into a long term issue with Gray or Eovaldi, who's always been a guy, or Andrew Haney, who's always been a guy that's been injured.

I could expect White to leapfrog some of these guys, like Spencer Howard, Cody Bradford. Owen White is the guy that could leapfrog them if there becomes a long-term opportunity. And I think this short-term opportunity will be a bit of a showcase for him to say, can I leap past Codyadford and be the sixth starter here i want to throw one other little thing out real quick was i think i mentioned this on the show my my contact via via uh with the rangers i had heard a thing about potentially at some point this year even jack lighter being someone who could contribute especially if he shows consistency.

And I do think it's interesting that you've got a double A guy jumping up. Jack Leiter is repeating double A. He has definitely seen some big changes. He's got huge strikeout numbers, 12.21K per nine. Consistency in the walks, right? But the walks have been the problem. But he made kind of a concerted effort on his approach earlier in the year except the consistency has just kind of gone back and forth he had a seven walk game on may 23rd uh he hasn't had a single game this year where he hasn't walked the

guy but three of his last five starts he's had seven or more strikeouts he hasn't given up more than five runs since um or even four runs since apr. So, I mean, it's been there, but he's a guy that could contribute in some capacity, but this might, we might start seeing what the path is for the Rangers and getting some of these guys contributing in a bullpen multi inning type of role. And I wonder, you know,

Owen to Jack lighter, who's the guy that has more of a push the whole year. Yeah. That's a good one. I think it might be lighter. I think with Owen white, there's also concerns about how more of a push the whole year? Yeah, that's a good one. I think it might be Leiter. I think with Owen White, there's also concerns about how they're going to manage his innings because of the injuries he's dealt with over the years, too. With Leiter, maybe they're more comfortable letting him go from this point forward.

He's already eaten up 56 of his 92 from last year. One thing with Jack Leiter is he's trying to change his approach to pitching. He's trying to be more north-south than yep that's exactly right uh so that's asking him to throw his pitches to new locations now he had a five and a half walk rate doing it the other way so maybe there's just a true talent lack of command uh but um you know it may just take all 90 of those innings to get him used to the new way of throwing. And what if it's like, you know, with what they're dealing with, especially any injury is just a brutal blow with the Rangers right now.

What if you stack an Owen White and a Jack Leiter and you get those innings in and you just get three, you know, three-ish out of both of them in a game and you turn them into one pitcher? Might be an interesting way to go. You know, maybe you come in the back half of the game with lighter you start off with owen white and again i know you take up the roster spots but it's something that the team the rangers a little bit of a stress on the bullpen but uh the giants are doing it right now jake junis and sean mania are basically one pitcher so maybe you could do it with double a pitchers that got some weird inning caps you cap them at four innings total if you you get a dominant performance, you get both of them to take you to the ninth.

If it's not great, you probably can get both of them to at least get you to the sixth. So it can be a tax on the bullpen. But if they work in any capacity, if you could be guaranteed you can get to the sixth or seventh with those two guys, you could justify the bullpen not being hit as hard. It's just something I'm thinking about. I'll probably reach out and see if that's any type of consideration with some of these arms, because I think it's an all-hands-on-deck thing with the Rangers,

with obviously the DeGrom injury. Yeah, we're seeing a similar thing happening in Miami right now as far as innings management goes. This was expected. Uri Perez, it sounds like, based on the latest reports from Barry Jackson and Craig Misch of the Miami Herald, that once Trevor Rodgers comes off the I.L. from his biceps injury, Perez, it sounds like, based on the latest reports from Barry Jackson and Craig Misch of the Miami Herald, that once Trevor Rodgers comes off the I.L. from his biceps injury, Uri Perez goes down for a while, reason being they can just start him once a week and go shorter with those starts

and not really have this guy that's really good at the big league level, but someone you can't use as often as you want to. So it's a really tough line to walk, but this seems to be the shorter-term plan to keep them closer to that 110, maybe 120 innings while still having them available later in the year if they remain in a position to possibly go to the playoffs. Marlins, as of right now, are right in the thick of things as a possible playoff team in the NL.

So it leads us to a tough question in redraft leagues. We knew this day was likely to come and it's not official yet, but it's right around the corner. How long can we realistically stash a guy like Uri Perez on a bench in a redraft league, not knowing exactly when he's going to come back? How would you try and forecast that out? Is it only three or four weeks before he's back in the big leagues or is it sometime maybe closer to post-All-Star break before they start breaking him back in as part of maybe even a six-man rotation? I would assume it's like after the All-Star break. I think that's what you'd have to stomach.

And I think you can. And I probably would because we don't have it official. I think Trevor Rodgers, by the way, if I remember correctly, I think he had a setback. Or I think something happened in his last start. That's not, it wasn't great. Maybe I'm completely wrong on it, but I thought he had some type of like setback or cancellation of it or whatever, but maybe you get one other start out of it.

Let me, I don't mean to like return the question. I'm just curious, you know, let's say the Marlins want you. You're, you're now the, you know, scouting development talent director for this team. This team wants you and you have this decision to make. What is the best play? Bring the guy down for a month, six weeks in the minors and do one start or have him pitch to,

you know, two games a week in the majors, two innings plus max, where you can cap it like do you think you guys were talking yesterday about the stanford pitcher going 156 and you want to talk about army development do you really think pushing a guy to pitch two innings for six weeks or whatever hurts his ability to go deeper later in the season like is that a developmental stunt like what's the play that you have that organization do with Uri Perez? Yeah, I think, uh, especially since this team

is currently in second place and tied for the first wild card or a half game out of the first wild card and they have this long history of not succeeding, I would try to use every inning of his that I could in the major leagues. And so whatever the plan would be in the minor leagues, I would just do that in the major leagues. Because it's not like this bullpen is amazing. It's not like you look at this bullpen and you say, oh, well, what if perez was taking away innings from you know who would it be he would be taking away innings from braxton garrett oh you're

talking about the bullpen yeah yeah yeah stephen ochert brian hoeing hoeing hoeing uh anyway uh uh anyway uh that's how i would do it i would do it in the major leagues uh and i guess the difficulty becomes roster management because in order to have uri perez in the major leagues while trevor rogers is up and it does seem like there are they are doing some medical testing on Trevor Rogers uh yeah it says that uh he could make a rehab start early this week if he receives positive positive medical records Sunday I've not heard an update on that since uh but if you were going to have your presence team and Trevor Rogers on this team, you would have to have the corresponding move and the corresponding move would have to be. I think that there are enough players on this team that have options. You know, somebody like Andrew Nardi could go down, but Andrew Nardi has been pitching really well. So you might actually cost yourself someone that has been pitching pretty well.

Hwaska Brazoban might be my pick. 33-year-old righty with three options that has pretty poor command. Why couldn't Uri Perez step in to Hwaska Brazoban's role and maybe even try to keep him semi stretched out with two winning stints? And the one big thing is your manager will hate you for it because you will have a guy in your bullpen that you can pitch two innings tonight and then he has to rest for four days. That's the hard part for sure. But yeah, I think between Brazabon, Nardi, and Hoeing all having options in addition to Perez, four relievers with options gives you enough flexibility where you might be able to get through this stretch in the schedule.

It is interesting, too, in that report from Barry Jackson and Craig Misch, you see that the organization is conflicted about whether to actually send him down or try something like this. I think he's at a level, he pitches at a level where you'd rather get those innings. You're getting upgraded bullpen innings. Someone goes short, someone has to leave because of an injury or they're not pitching well, or you're just in a spot. Starting rotation will get injured. And then by the time you need to put Perez back in, it's like just a softly managing, like a three-week spot, right?

Yeah, and I think Cueto just started a rehab assignment as well, just throwing that out. I think he just started it like last week. So that throws a little bit of a wrinkle in it. But getting back all the way to that question, it's like if they could keep him, because I don't think two two-inning stints a week

hurts the development of a guy being able to be stretched out and go deeper into games and can help you the rest of the year. that would make it so much more palatable to hold on to him in our leagues because you're still getting a little bit of run even though it's not great we know the talent leagues or whatever you can yeah you could just throw him out there but obviously it it's gonna put like rubber meets the road for a lot of people if they say hey he's going down he'll be back post all-star break i'd hold as

long as i could i would hold as well i would have a tough time cutting him yeah it'd have to be other guys are hurt that you can't let go because their ceilings are even higher i think if you're going to get squeezed into that spot i think from a bridging the gap perspective so much more to have as your ninth pitcher if he's able to get you some innings out of the bullpen but that decision depending on the health of Rodgers, could be just around the corner. Let's talk about some players who have either been promoted recently to AAA or maybe been there throughout the season

who could be knocking on the door for a promotion. Mike Vassell in the Mets organization just got the bump from AA, and maybe he's a little further away than the other players in this group, but this is a guy that I didn't really know a ton about coming into the season he's 23 turned 23 back in March former eighth round pick in 2021 really took a big step forward at AA numbers at high a last year were kind of just okay over a strikeout per inning but the ERA was up over five excellent control still missed a lot of bats had a little bit of a home run issue at AA Binghamton.

This Mets team's in such a weird spot that I think you're kind of at the anything is possible point where they're going to start making some more drastic moves. And they've had some trouble in the back end of that rotation, backfilling for some of the injured starters they had earlier this year as well. So you think we're going to see Vassil at some point before this summer is over?

Seems like it. It definitely seems like they also, again, in the preparation of everything, he was in the AFL this past year. You know, it's one of the biggest, I mean, one of the reasons, and you can always, you know, put the pieces of the puzzle together.

These teams send almost all of these guys in to be ready for rigors more. I mean, sometimes guys are injured and stuff like that, but it's like it's the setting off point for these guys in to be ready for rigors more. I mean, sometimes guys are injured and stuff like that, but it's like it's the setting off point for these guys being ready to be in the major league. You have major league coaches that are out there. You're playing against top talent.

Like they put these pitchers out there usually when they're getting close to the majors, even though he was at lower levels. Vassil looks like he's going to be one of those guys. I'm not the biggest fan. I saw him pitch once in the AFL. Obviously, this year's numbers have been great. I do think there's a pretty big fly ball issue that's going on.

I don't think he's a monster strikeout guy, but he could eat up innings, and he's had a really successful run, so we should count that. So yeah, I think any of these guys at this moment that have been brought up to AAA are post-All-Star game options that teams are looking at when depth is needed. So I think Vassell 100% could get a few starts in with the Mets.

Yeah, there's a little bit of a whiff of developmental success here with Vassell, who wasn't amazing at Virginia and was an eighth-round pick, and was an eighth round pick and has really sort of steadily marched forward in terms of strikeout rate and swing strike rate, a nice 17% swinging strike rate at double a this year. Apparently his slider is up five miles an hour from where it was in college. And that always gets my attention. 85 to 88 on the slider, 94 on the fastball with good spin and life um so you know this is uh somebody i've got my eye on i i'm i'd be hoping for uh sort of a sneaky uh less trumpeted fab bid uh you know a little a little uh a single digit action or something something you know i think that's all that anyone

has left after uh some 340s i saw in my leagues you know how much money do you have left anyway but uh you know and the other thing is uh for vassal i think there's there's going to be some opportunity in this mets uh rotation you know Either they go in one direction and want to see what they have for next year, or they go in another direction and want to have something better than Tyler Meguil or David Peterson pitching at the back end of their rotation.

So I would guess that he gets, you know, five starts in the major leagues this year. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments?

How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx. What? FedEx.

Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Yeah, it seems like they're kind of done with McGill and Peterson as replacement starters at this point. You've seen enough to the point where you're not really expecting much to change for those two guys at this stage. It's funny that you think of Vassal as maybe a guy that could come up later this year and be a relative cheap fab addition for anyone who has money left if we see emmett sheehan get the call i think that's where the the remaining fab hammers on the pitching side are probably going in that direction it seems like they're gonna need him though right i mean they've already been dealing

with their share of injuries we've seen gavin stone struggle with the opportunity we talked about bobby miller yesterday he's been fantastic far, but still you could look at this Dodgers team and pretty easily find room for another pitching prospect in the second half. Yeah. This is like, this is where I'm going to be very blowhardy and like, like, Oh,

talk about my AFL. Like he was maybe one of the best pitchers in the Arizona fall league. One thing I would throw in, which doesn't show up on this, is we've done this a lot where we play the innings game and we look and we're like, okay, well, Sheehan had 67 innings, but what you've also got to do is throw another 20 to 30. I'd have to go back and look at the AFL numbers, but he actually, with AFL, probably pushed closer to 90 innings last year. One of the reasons they brought him back. So you want to start pushing.

Maybe he could get to 120, 130 if they feel really good about it. And he's at 50 right now. So there's 80 good innings in, and she has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors. It skews all the numbers when you look now, because you've got complex level and stuff like that, but he has been at the top of swinging strike percentage strikeout percentage he has been one of the leaders in on the year 41.7 percent in

double a this year bonkers a almost 15k per nine on the season which is crazy stuff a 10 walk rate it's still giving him an over 30% K minus walk percentage. He has absolutely pounded the zone. The fastball release point is really interesting in how he's getting on guys. I think it's making the fastball even better. It can throw strikes. He's had the inning work last year. And he, like I said, he's been like top five, most dominant pitchers. And this is a guy that the Dodgers can absolutely work with, with however they want to mess with their rotations and stuff that I think two, three starts in here to see what they have at triple a,

the clock starts to tick. And when they bring Sheehan up, it's to finish out the year. So I, like you said, you nailed it. DVR. Like this is like a hammer of whatever the hell you have left.

If he comes up because boy, there's opportunity in that dodgers rotation not all worried they played bring him up to do some sort of uh relieving to end this season you know and they may and if they do they'll tell us i you know here's another thing let me throw this out dustin may kind of stunk like for some degrees i know the era was like better numbers were bad i was going to say there is opportunity in that in that rotation but it's its name is noah syndergard noah syndergard whoop i completely agree but between injuries with may injuries with urius syndergard being bad bobby miller's been a pleasant spot gavin stone has stunk uh groove not great that a they just throw him in, but B, maybe there is, again, a piggyback situation. They like to mess around with those things.

Either way, no matter what it is, I think it benefits. And I think guys like Stone would be the guy to get one or two innings in relief, not Sheehan. I think it's Groove, Stone, those guys, and maybe, not saying they would do it, but maybe May is one of those guys that they just try to limit some of the chaos they've had with him. But probably not.

Syndergaard is the first domino to fall. But I'm very, very much in on Sheehan. And hopefully they tell us what it is, too, so we don't have to play a guessing game. Because that would suck to not know. And then they're like, oh, yeah, by the way, he's going to be relief the rest of the way through. I don't know if they would necessarily turn to someone arriving as a standalone closer, but that's an unsettled enough save situation where saves aren't out of the

question for someone who comes up and gets high leverage opportunities. They could just go full committee. And this was a few ways that could actually work out depending on what they want to do and who's actually healthy at the time that she and eventually gets that opportunity yeah it'll be fun to watch i was just at the dodgers complex last week and daniel hudson was rehabbing and he threw in the game this was on tuesday or wednesday and then he threw one more it was really good he looks like back on point he should be back soon ish and it'll he'll be kind of the guy in my mind to kind of watch,

see what leverage point they put him in the rotation. And then, like you said, maybe they do throw one of those guys out there, one of those young guys in, and they just, you know, maybe it's a Brewsdar and a Stone or Brewsdar and an Emichi, and you never know. You know, I'll throw this one to you first. Luis Matos putting together a great season in the minors, thriving at AAA after a great start at AA. Is he coming to San Francisco this summer?

Can he help this Giants team? Do they have room to just bring him up and make him a fixture in that outfield mix? Austin Slater can't stay healthy, hasn't looked great in center, has been playing in left. Mike Gostromski is, I don't't think a great center fielder defensively anymore they've had people like Bryce Johnson and Blake Wisely on the roster to patch over the fact that maybe late in the game defensively you'd rather have somebody else in center so Bryce Johnson whose best skill is that he runs fast has been been the center fielder late in games sometimes when he's up. All this to say, there's a massive opportunity in center field,

I believe, in San Francisco. I think they can probably find some way to keep Jastrzemski, Hanager, and Conforto, and Peterson all mostly in the lineup most days, even if they call up Luis Matos and play him every day in center. So I don't know if this is just me drinking the local Kool-Aid or, you know, I did spend a lot of time in the clubhouse in San Francisco sort of talking this over with other people. I feel like he's close. I feel like he'll be up this year i think that he'll be up in the next three weeks and there's a slight whiff of kind of like luis arise in center

that i get off of him um that uh is pretty enticing to a lot of people i just i i don't believe the powers is really that uh big of a thing for him. I think it'll be just enough power to keep people honest and to keep that batting average up. It's not like a Nick Magical situation where you can't hit the ball hard. And I believe in the wheels

and I believe in the center field defense. And that bad year in high A last year, it was 407 plate appearances in high a in 2022 uh with a 74 wrc plus but at the time uh he was 20 years old um and i do think he gets at least 125 point wrc plus boost based on his age alone so if you look at his uh you know his wrc pluses across and you give him 100 uh in that one he's uh either been pretty good uh or very good at most stops so i think seen within the lens of of sort of year at age at level uh that 2022 is not as bad as it looks i had to make the difficult call in a Keeper League

where it was not... I didn't have enough roster spots, and I decided that Matos was going to take longer than I was willing to wait, and I let him go. I dropped him at Arnaud. And I am regretting that right now. I think the question I have for you, Welsh,

is where do you see the ceiling with Matos? I mean, I think Eno is shining some light on fair questions about his power, but because he's so young, there's still some significant physical growth potential for Matos. So where are you at ceiling wise on him? Yeah, I wish I could, I couldn't find it,

especially on desktop Twitter here, but I was trying to find some of the video from the AFL of Matos because I got a couple of just absolutely towering balls because the thing with him is, is I like his stance. I like his approach. It's really easy turns on it and he barrels baseballs and he, he's one of those guys who just taps into power that doesn't look like it's there.

Cause he's not like the biggest guy in the world. They list him five 11, one 60 and then maybe a little bit more weight on it um i think i it's funny because i think he could go one of two ways he could easily be that guy that is just a better real life player than fantasy player but i also think there is something in there for what he's done at his age that he might blow by expectations because he's probably one of the least heralded guys for what he's done this year. One of the most astonishing things to me to think about is this is a 21 year old kid. He's checking out 7% of the time, 7% of the time with an over 250 ISO

in AAA. That's bonkers. That's insane. He's also at multiple stops, walked a decent amount, and he's overcome some crazy adversity. He ended up winning, I think there was some award in the AFL. He was one of the best hitters that was out here for a period of time. And he's got really good instincts. He can run. And I think right now he's set at like a 915 pace. I don't think it's crazy to think that, you know, peak he's a 2020 guy. I think he can put up a 15, 15 season pretty easy and he'll be a much more valuable fantasy asset in the short term than we think. And I agree with,

you know, he's going to be up. I think he's up soon. I think it's that I don't mean to create like arbitrary date, arbitrary stuff here, but it's like the all-star game seems likely maybe they want maybe they don't want to call him up so he can be a part of the futures game or it doesn't matter and he's called up right around it but he helps this team and he's you know arguably one of

the better outfielders um right now interesting there might be might be some politics around the futures game there really is that happens a lot well because you know as an organization you want to have some guys out there and if you take him off of that roster by by bringing him to the major leagues then do you get another guy in there i don't know who the hell they would send yeah maybe kyle harrison carson wiz and hunt yeah well he's got a really nice change up he's got one of the best change-ups i've seen in the minors he's insane i asked him about it last year too he's crazy but either case like having a position player out there for a team that has been having some trouble producing young players, I think maybe that's it. Maybe it's right after the All-Star break.

So four weeks. Kind of a big cluster with the three of these guys between Casey Schmidt, Carson Wisenhunt, and Luis Matos all having the years they're having. All guys that are either at the big league level or close to the big league level. Wisenhunt, maybe. A little further away, Patrick Bailey. They needed that in San Francisco. They needed that infusion of young talent beyond Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano,

and it's come through for them. I have to admit, my impression of their farm system and what it's done has definitely improved this year. I didn't quite see this coming. And I wonder if some of it is short term. Because I'm still not 100% sold on Casey Schmidt's future.

Maybe it's a league average major league player in terms of wins above replacement. But I don't know if it's much more than that. I don't know if it's a fantasy asset, really. And Bailey still has some swing and miss um and i'm not sure that any of the the group is a star um but i do think maybe all of them are regulars yeah right doesn't that seem like it's schmidt bailey and matos are all 100 and who would have thought too by the way that all of that's happening while joey bart is uh being sent down and he's not an option anymore you know i mean joey bart was the can't miss guy marco luciano was the can't miss guy and both have been huge swing and misses while what the giants are doing is i don't think

they have top in real or fantasy talent, but like you said, they 100% have major league players that are going to be good compliments. The problem is they just need to hit on star. They need to find the star. Closest to them is Matos. Who? Marco Luciano.

Oh, he's awful. He's horrid. It's been horrid, though. The strikeout rate is pretty poor. Is that a buy low in long-term leagues at marco luciano or is that a say no i mean 21 and in double a we gotta we gotta adjust that wrc plus it's not terrible he's had other strikeout years where i mean he's at 30 now but just last year was 22 you know i don't know on the level of like last player in a deal or just pick him up and you know stash him then yeah i could still get with it a little bit to that

yeah otherwise i'm not i'm just not super interested i don't think like i'll just be wrong or miss out or like i'm over it it's been too consistent this for so long and he is getting passed left and right. He's inconsistent at every level. He just had like a great week and like everyone's like, hey, look at Marco Luciano. He's like hitting under 200. He's just not like he has lots of talent

that does not get tapped into and he's been injured and it hasn't happened. I mean, he was playing at the same level with Corbin Carroll, the same level with CJ Abrams, at the same level with Luis Matos. And look at how far everyone has gone past. So maybe I'm not giving enough credit and he is still 21. So maybe it is solid and like a last player, but I'm not targeting. like hey this is the buy low i don't i don't buy it and i don't know what there needs to be a change and is that change available like is there someone in that giants organization that can fix whatever's going on are they just letting him go but it's just the same stuff it's strikeouts injured strikeouts injured never this is the first time i think he said double a it's like never get to triple a we're gonna save the dynasty movers for next week,

which will be good because the list will actually be up. So then people can actually look at it. Good timing on that. I had one more player I wanted to ask about. I had two until Ronnie Mauricio's injury popped up. So let's talk about Tyler Soderstrom. Can he break through and actually contribute to the A's this season, playing a little better in recent days,

has a couple of homers walking about as much as he's striking out over the last week. Very small sample. This is a guy at AAA who won't turn 22 until November. He's catching a little more than he's playing first base. Obviously, Shea Langoliers is going to play a lot behind the plate so they can share that role and rotate between first base and DH.

I'm almost wondering if Ryan Noda is playing well enough where they can just wait a little longer on Tyler Soderstrom and see if he can become a bit more patient at the plate because he's got a weird offensive profile to me. Clearly there's power. I think there's a pretty good hit tool, but he doesn't walk as much as you'd expect for those other tools being where they are. So what kind of player do you think Soderstrom is going to be, Welsh? where they are. So what kind of player do you think Soderstrom is going to be, Welsh? I think he's going to be a big impact bat. I think he's probably in the major league to minor league,

he's probably a top four bat in that entire organization. Like I said, from majors to minors, there's a big bit. I mean, the power is unreal, the way he can turn on it. I don't love the strikeouts, but I would also kind of, if we're talking age to level stuff, you go and take a look and it's, you know, 26% at 21 years old where he's played the entire year and he played through last year. So I think there's also a, how much longer did the A's want to bring him down?

If you were changing positions aggressively, maybe, but he's like a classic, he'll be the second catcher. He can play first. He might even be able to play in the outfield. I think they could put Noda on a quarter outfield. I just think the impact of the bat helps right now,

but it's like, when do they want that? When do they care? There's enough going on. Do they want to push development? But I think he will be up this year. I think he's a second half guy, and I think he's hitting five or six for this team. So I'm very much in on Tyler Soderstrom.

He's like a top of the list guy rest of season I'm trying to pick up. Yeah, it seems like you'd actually trade for him somewhat easily because he's lagging in WRC Plus and some of the things we're always looking at with prospects on the brink of debuting. I'd be curious, you know, I mean, have you heard the organization, like you were poking around on the Matos front? Have you heard anything on Soderstrom?

Well, I've got my green and gold on today because i'm uh headed to the reverse boycott but uh i have not been uh talking to them i mean they're uh they're honestly not in the greatest position to start clocks as much as that is a dumb uh thing that we get annoyed by i don't know that they need to start Tyler Sturluson's clock. Plus, if he's splitting time catching and playing first base and there's still a chance that he can be a catcher, that usually means for a later debut, as most catchers get. It usually just means there's more time to be spent honing that part of his craft.

And then lastly, the weirdest thing for me is his line is two 58, three 13, five 50, which looks amazing. Two 92 ISO, you know, two 58 average 26 and a half percent strikeout rate for SodaStrom. But like,

you know, the rest of that line looks great. It's a 91 WRC plus that's Vegas, isn't it? that's crazy uh i don't i do like the 113 and a half max ev so there's definite juice in that bat um but his line is not as good as it looks and uh you have to go back to a ball in 2022 to get a significantly good wrc plus just a just a note that i have i mean it's just weird that we all agree that you know that this guy has power and it looks good and he's probably going to be a major league hitter and yet his

wrc plus if you summed it up for the last, you know, 500 plate appearances is below average. Yeah. I'm going to dig around a bit more and try to find a comp before next week, just because I I'm in and I'm like, what other players with this profile have been in on in the past? And how has that actually worked out for me? No doubt about that. Five percent.

You know who this reminds me a little bit of is Paul DeYoung. 5% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate, legit power, and a defensive position that's valuable. So that affords you more chances. You can look at how up and down Paul DeJong's career has been and how he's been afforded chances after he's looked terrible because he can still play shortstop. And Paul DeJong has been a valuable player in the big leagues.

But for his career, he's at 232, 306, 430 with a 98 WRC plus good defense that's made him a valuable real life player. But how often has Paul DeJYoung been a valuable fantasy player? Maybe two, three times in his career. Something I do this real quick. Cause I know we're getting out of here. I just have this vivid memory. This was right off of COVID.

I was over at the Rangers facility. I'm at the Rangers, by the way, Rangers are playing the Mariners and I'm standing there at the fence as I do. And I got two coaches next to me. And all of a sudden this coach starts talking about Tyler Soderstrom, Rangers and Mariners. This is not the A's. And all of a sudden this coach starts talking about Tyler Soderstrom,

Rangers and Mariners. This is not the A's. And this guy is just ran. And this is, I'm like, this is crazy. And he's talking about Tyler Soderstrom. And the thing that stood out that that coach was saying is he's like, he's one of the most talented players he's ever worked with,

but you couldn't tell him anything. Like Soderstrom was one of those guys that he had already had it in his head. His path was, he knew what he needed to do. And lightly saying taking to coaching was a tougher thing because he would, you could say it to him and he's like, okay, but he always did his own thing because this was his life.

And he's kind of an intense guy. I've actually been around him in a thing before. He's kind of like a really intense guy. And I wonder how that's kind of gone in the process of changing positionally first and catching and hitting and how he's going to take to all of this as far as like, we don't see the walks and the strikeouts. And I don't know how anecdotal it really is, but it's always stood out to me. It's the only time I've ever heard coaches and many times I've been in the backfield talking about a player on the other side of town

that had nothing to do with that game and it was like that's the the the level of impact that they thought of his bat and who he could be versus what he was willing but also the thing they were saying was like negative at 100 and how like they're i mean i'm not going to say everything they said but it was implying his ability to be coached was one of the most difficult things this person had experienced. And then you put him in Vegas that paper was over any flaws that he might have. Yeah.

What if he was, you know, isn't the Florida league, that's the one that's pitcher-friendliest? Yeah, I would say. I mean, I think, are're talking in complex uh no like florida i don't know if it exists anymore the florida state league or something the well there's the florida uh complex league that's going on there there's also the like florida atlantic and stuff like that i mean but he's been playing and he's been arizona based and a professional league anyway uh one of the minor leagues that has the most

uh pitcher friendly parts i wonder what his line would look like i mean it's something to worry about he reconsider would he reconsider you know uh his stance towards coaching or whatever yeah and that's what i would be i would love more of that because one thing i point out is also he's one of those like huge max ev guys he put up like 114 on brandon fought at the beginning of the year. Like he has got monstrous big power. It's just the ability to make consistent contact is the question. And then I throw in just anecdotally, like, Hey, you just wonder, you know, like how much is being picked up as far as coaching is going and how much is that happening in the system anyways? Yeah. I like that one. Got it in there. Good jab at the final bell, too. Really well done.

On our way out the door, a quick reminder, you can get a subscription for $2 a month at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. On Twitter, you can find Welsh at isitthewelsh. You can find Eno at enosaris. You can find me at DerekVanRiper. If you have a question for a future episode, send that our way via email, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com.

That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.