Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - Opportunity in LA

Episode Date: May 23, 2023

DVR, Eno and Welsh look into the big opportunity in LA for prospect pitchers. Is Patrick Bailey someone to watch? Is George Valera underrated? Is this the time to buy Jordan Lawlar? Plus plenty more! Rundown 1:10 - Gavin Stone's odd outing 9:05 - Rookie pitching game. Welsh vs Eno 15:51 - Bobby Miller debut 22:08 - Emmett Sheehan 25:08 - Is Hayden Wesneski a hold? 30:59 - Is Luis Ortiz good? 35:44 - Forrest Whitley 44:30 - Patrick Bailey 49:42 - George Valera 55:35 - Is now the time to buy Jordan Lawlar Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Try LinkedIn Sales Navigator and get a sixty-day free trial at LinkedIn dot com slash RATES23. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is a Project Prospect episode.

Tuesday, May 23rd is the date. Derek Van Ryper, Chris Welsh, Eno Saris here with you on this episode. We continue celebrating Dodgers Pitching Prospect Week. We'll look at the Monday night outing from Gavin Stone and get Welsh's thoughts on Bobby Miller, since Eno and I talked about him a bit on Monday. Big debut coming up on Tuesday night. We've got Patrick Bailey, as teased on yesterday's show, quietly sneaking into the catcher pool. Another injury for George Valera. Jordan Lawler struggling at AA. We'll see if there's anything to be concerned about there.

Forrest Whitley, healthy again for now. We'll talk about his chances of possibly breaking through and joining the Astros rotation at some point this season, and we'll go wherever the wind takes us. We have a very laid-back vibe on our Tuesday episodes because, look, anything's on the table. Anything prospect, keeper, dynasty-related is fair game. We begin with the odd outing from Gavin Stone. And it's odd because last night against Atlanta, Gavin Stone had 14 swinging strikes and only had one strikeout. Gave five earned runs, really struggled early in that outing over four innings. 79 pitches in total. What do we make of this?

I mean, Welsh, we were looking at some of the maps of where he was locatedating the fastball just a few minutes ago and it was it was ugly it was it was it was throwing paint all over the canvas yeah that's what i was saying it looked like just some like little two-year-old just throwing paint on there because the whole thing was all over the place and you know i mean you know we'll probably break this down here in just a second but you know like he wants to be a big fastball change-up guy, but the early rub here is no one is afraid of his change-up early on because he's not really throwing it for strikes. His fastball wasn't hitting in big strike counts either,

and he had really an absurd number of 22% outside of the zone swing percentage overall on all pitches, which you looked at before the show and league averages. Yeah. And that would have qualified. That would have been the worst in baseball. I mean, it was really bad and you know,

you can speak to it, but you know, the first inning was gross. The fastball command was all over the place. And the fastballs, particularly on the heat map looked insane because it was just like, it was high, low,

right. It was everywhere everywhere he threw more balls than strikes in this and he's got to make his big damage off of the change up but i just don't like i i don't know if it's there enough where he's getting anybody fearful especially in this um those two strike counts where that's where you're going to make your big money on the change up and he doesn't really seem to be throwing it for strikes early on. He's just throwing it to try to induce swings. So Gavin Stone, I don't think is my big guy.

I wasn't ever fully in love with him. I actually liked the guy we're going to talk about here in a little bit, but you know, you were looking at a little bit more on him, especially in the two strike counts. And it was pretty, it was pretty messy. Yeah. The weirdest thing was that he got to 14 two-strike counts. I mean, like you said, he had 14 whiffs.

And in those two-strike counts, he threw an equal amount of fastball change-ups. I think it was like eight fastballs, six change-ups, and three sliders. And he got a swing on two of them. One was a foul ball and the other was, I think, his strikeout. And that's all he did. But if you look at, again, you look at the heat map for his fastball and two strikeouts, of course, he's trying to, you know, get a swing on a pitch that's probably outside the zone, but he was nowhere near the zone. It was way outside the zone. So I did a quick thing here, and I know this is irresponsible because Location Plus does not come online this quickly, but I did want to put him in context,

how bad his command has been in the early going. Among the pitchers that have had five innings or more shintaro fujinami is worst in baseball and location plus among starters we knew that uh we knew that with our eyes and our eyeballs he had an 86 location plus second is of course you guys could you guess major league starter with this the worst location plus other than Shintaro Puginami. Oh, it's got to be a heavy walk. I mean, Flaherty came to mind, but he's been better, but his walk numbers are insane. Luis Medina is another A. Oh, that's a good one. Where is Medina? I don't know if he's got a—maybe he's not qualified.

He is there. He is there. He's actually a little bit beyond the guys I'm looking at. Brad Keller is number two. Oh, yes, yes. Brad Keller, the guy that I fell for because he had at one point shown, what, two above average breakers? Yeah.

It doesn't matter if you can't land it. No, you can't land it. Gavin Stone is next. After him is Jose Budo, Yanni Chirinos, Jose Ureña, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Williamson. It's not a good list to be on. Yeah, it's a depressing list of players. Oh, Ken Waldachuk's there too.

Yeah, so it's a tough place to be. In terms of stuff plus, I could see him having a good changeup and the model not quite catching it. It's not liking it, though. And it's an average slider by Stuff Plus, but that's actually 100 is below average for a slider in Stuff Plus. So he's not calling out to me in any way. I still think that there's a chance that he becomes Tony Gonsolin. I think there's some similarities there.

Tony Gonsolin has outperformed some of his numbers in the past. And he, Tony Gonsolin, had league bottom command at one point. Remember when he couldn't even, he was like off the playoff roster basically because he couldn't find the zone. So maybe there's something here long-term,

but I'm out on Gavin Stone for this year. All right. I was going to ask you an interesting one because you brought this up, not me before people yell at me, but beforehand you had brought up off air Brandon Fott, and I'm very disenchanted about Brandon Fott, but I was going to ask you Brandon Fott or Gavin Stone but I think oh yeah you've got your answer easily Brandon Fott has a league

average four seamer and two plus breaking balls by stuff plus the location numbers are around average I think he's coming online you're starting to see swinging strikes I think you're starting to see the the positive future for him i'm i'm definitely still into brandon fought i don't know if i'm super into him this year and and there has i've fallen out of love a little bit with the rookie starting pitcher this year um just because i think there's just so much to get right to be a good major league starter you know what i mean like you can have all the stuff and not command it or you can have all the stuff and throw it in the wrong counts you know what i mean and like or you can throw you can fall in love with one pitch or love your change up like

think of blake smell blake's now loved his change up for so long and it was bad for him and he got better when he turfed a pitch that he loved. So the journey to becoming a really good Major League starter, I think, is most often a long one. Grayson Rodriguez might have been tipping his pitches, it turns out. And so now he's not tipping his pitches. He's got to figure out what to do with the cutter because it might be a bad pitch, but he loves it. So Grayson Rodriguez is one of the guys who is really, really supposed to land.

I mean, everything looked good. Prospect, scouts loved him. Everybody loved Grayson Rodriguez, right? Yeah. And I still love Grayson Rodriguez, and I'll put him ahead of most of the guys we talk about today. But I think he does tell you something about how difficult it is to be a rookie star. Are you disenchanted though

because there's such a wave of them like where a couple maybe have succeeded and and done well like Uri Perez looks good and maybe we say Tanner Bybee whatever but you can't focus on the two or three that have looked good because the sheer number of guys it's overwhelming of how many we've had and how many are kind of falling apart do you think it's the wave I think well it's overwhelming of how many we've had and how many are kind of falling apart. Do you think it's the wave? I think, well, it's the due to the injuries, I guess.

Maybe there's some of these guys that shouldn't have been pressed into, into duty that it was too soon, but, but there's also just a, uh, like the 23 year old starter, uh, 22,

23 year old starter does. Um, it, it had been going out of style before this year you guys want to play a game okay oh you want to play a game no i will lose since 2018 i've got rookie pitchers on a board right here since 2018 so the last five seasons plus this one minimum 50 innings pitched, there have been 19 pitchers in 50 plus innings as rookies.

19 pitchers have been two war pitchers. That's only a few per year. It's not a ton. How many guys... If you alternate, just going back to 2018. The last five years and then

this season technically would count, no one has reached it this season. I'll give you that one as a freebie. 19 pitchers have been two-war pitchers, according to Fangraphs, as rookies. Shane McClanahan? Shane McClanahan, he's in there. He's in the top 10.

I think that's 2021. That's a recent hit. Yeah, I got one, so I'm happy. Now Eno's got a match, because I didn't think I was going to get one. Yeah, go back and forth. We'll alternate. Dylan Cease? Dylan Cease.

As a rookie, no. Didn't do it as a rookie. One strike for Eno. When was this? 2018? 2018, yep. Zach Gallin? Zach Gallin, narrow miss, 1.6 war. But 15 starts, 80 innings with 10.8 Ks per nine, 281 ERA.

That played for fantasy purposes. So it didn't work for war, but it was a hit as far as a rookie pitcher pickup. So one strike each. Julio Urias. Rookie year, too far back, and kid gloves. So that's another strike. Okay. You know what I need to do?

I need to look at names real quick. Okay, so. You don't have to go real far. You don't have to go real far back here. Ooh. There's none. Well, if he's looking at names, I'm looking at names. Yeah.

Well, I just need to visually see names. How about, oh, George Kirby. Yeah, George Kirby. That's a big hit. 130 innings. Strikeout per inning. Good walk rate. 330-90 array.

Spencer Strider had his rookie eligibility. Spencer Strider tied for the best rookie season we've seen since 2018 in terms of war. Would have been number one, but the innings count was low. We're still going here? Okay. Yep. Eno still got two. He got one strike. Sandy Alcantara?

Yep. Sandy Alcantara is a hit. Low K rate, but 197 in a third inning since his rookie season. What if he'd actually won some games, too, from a Roto perspective? Yikes. Zanino. Logan Webb.

Logan Webb. Logan Webb. No. No. Damn. So wait, if I get one right here, do I win the game because he's on three strikes? You win the game. Yep. Okay, so there's a lot of pressure on this one. Send him home.

Send him home. Send him home with the Lakers. Ooh, I got a couple options I'm looking at here, and we've gone through them. All right, rookie year, final answer. I will go with Alec Manoa. Yes. Just made it. Exactly. it exactly to war okay remember when he was really good that was fun um so some other notable ones trevor rogers tied with strider his rookie season was fantastic back in 2021 mike soroka was third walker bueller is up there yeah when i was

looking at names i was like they're not all here they're definitely working because i'm looking just at this leaders for this year and i'm like no they're not all here. They definitely weren't. Because I was looking just at leaders for this year, and I'm like, no, they're not all on this list. No. So not all of them stuck with it. Luis Garcia, John Means actually snuck on this list. Volume is a big part of the war part of this. Shane Bieber, Spencer Turnbull, Chris Paddock, Brad Keller is actually on there. Bieber's been a rookie since 18, and Urias wasn't?

I think it's an innings thing. Weird. Jack Flaherty made the list. In my head, Beaver is older than Urias. Me too. I'm 100% with you. Beaver's been around since like 15. Reed Detmers made the list.

Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan last season. Oh, man. Instead of Logan Webb, I was debating the Logans. I thought Gilbert was like a 1-6 or something his first year. Yeah. I think we have had enough recent success from rookie pitchers, and especially having a massive hit last year with Strider, having a pretty big hit two years ago with McClanahan.

With those two guys being treated the way they were in drafts this past season, perhaps that has made us all more aggressive towards rookie pitching. But I also think there's a bigger conversation with rookie pitching. It seems like because of all the tools teams have now to develop pitching and monitor pitching, it's easier to see when a pitcher is ready. It's easier to know if they have an arsenal that will get big league hitters out so they can move a little faster. And I think that gives us more confidence that they can have success right away, even if it shouldn't, or even if it gives us more confidence than we should have.

I think that's all part of the equation here. So do you think we're the victims of some recency bias? Yeah, I suppose it hasn't all been that bad. I mean, in terms of this year even, among the different big bid rookies. Hunter Brown has to be a success story. We saw that one coming. I've ranked him in the top 40, I think, or top 50. Bryce Miller so far, although the strikeout rate and the secondaries, you know, there's something to be said.

He kind of looks like an all-fastball guy right now. But Tanner Bybee, although, you know,'s something to be said that he kind of looks like an all fastball guy right now but uh tanner bybee although you know there too this strikeout rate's not that good and it hasn't been as good since the beginning i kind of i still like logan allen better than tanner bybee i'm maybe alone on that one but uh so logan allen is a win taj bradley i think still consider is still a win uh so that's a lot of wins for rookie pitchers i guess but then the volume kind of brings it down that's what i was talking about it's like it's actually a lot of pretty solid wins but then you think about the sheer amount of guys that have come up and the expectations and i feel like that's what might be muddying the waters of you

know being disenchanted with some of the rookie pitchers like Like, oh man, there's so many that are failing. It's like, well, there's just so many more. And there's a lot that are doing really well in contributing to fantasy teams right now. Yeah. If you start looking at the lower number ones, like the, the 10, you know, five and 10, you've got Grove there. Um, you know, I think, uh, Schuster, Dre Jameson. Dylan Dodd.

There's been some misses down there. And there's this Grayson Rodriguez, the only guy with like 40 innings where you're just like I see an 11k 9, a passable walk rate, and a 6 ERA. Come on!

This can't be. This is not Grayson Rodriguez I'm holding home runs mainly yeah frustrating Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze and it felt a little like Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night, kids. Good night, Mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Whoa, what are you listening to this for?

Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. But yeah, I think I'm still in on rookie pitchers.

I'm not going to learn my lesson yet. Maybe Eno's right to back off them a little bit. I do think the Bobby Miller debut on Tuesday is going to pull some skeptics back in. Yep. He is electric. I think second best stuff. And I was going to say,

he actually might be the one to the next guy to be added to this group of success stories. Hopefully it's a rough matchup seeing Gavin Stone get lit up. But, you know, Bobby Miller has got the stuff to potentially be the next, you know, name that we are going to put into the six, hopefully the success stories. And I think it's a pretty D especially you look at like what we just broke

down with Gavin stone and, you know, command at this stage, this is going to be a massive issue, whether the stuff and the fastball and the change up and how he uses them get better. If he's not going to be able to command those pitches, regardless if he has better stuff than Bobby Miller he's not going to be able to command those pitches, regardless, if he has better stuff than Bobby Miller, he's going to be out. He has a much higher likelihood at this point, I would say,

regardless of even seeing Bobby Miller pitch right now of losing that long term Dustin may spot. If Bobby Miller can just be the guy that he has been kind of on paper with the big stuff, plus numbers. And I believe you just said it, you know, he's number two in stuff plus in the minors right now.

Yeah, it doesn't come without a little bit of an asterisk, which is that his fan graphs command grade is 4045. His location plus in 250 AAA pitches is a 94. That's fairly low. I mean, we were talking about 89s when we were talking about Stone. So it's better than that. But 94, just to give you some other high stuff, guys,

and their location numbers in the minors, Taj Bradley had a 90 when he was working on his fastball. So that's a little bit of the concern with Taj Bradley. Grayson Rodriguez had a 93 in the minors. And Tanner Bybee had a 97 location plus. And then the veterans that were down there for rehab, Luis Severino, 106 location plus. Tyler Glasnow,6 location plus Tyler Glass now 103 location plus so there is something to be

said for command counting and the fact that you know I have three names on this minor league stuff plus list that are reaching out to me that are new to the list or interesting to people Bobby Miller number two AJ Smith Shal is uh number nine on this list now and then a new entry will warren uh from the yankees uh enter the top 20 all of them uh are hot names in fantasy baseball right now i think or at least i'm trying to make will warren hot give him some heat uh they're all 93, 94 location plus. So if they succeed or don't succeed, there's still an element of command mattering for these guys.

And the one thing with Bob Miller, with the stuff so good like that, I think he's the kind of guy who can target the middle of the zone and let his stuff eat and still have success. His last start, by the way, I pulled it up. I don't know if you guys looked at this recently, but his last start was on the 17th in AAA, and he was touching 101. He hit 101.2, averaging 99. Yeah, they told him to throw 100, not 102. 101.2, averaging 99.5.

He was pretty steady, 89 89 fastball curveball and his slider though was uh you know getting into the mix with percentage wasn't like the greatest csw percentage wasn't the greatest but he's got really big spin he's got a big powering fastball that you know major leaguers are going to pull out their shoes and try to swing through and i actually think as long as he has solid command in this uh first start he's got a real decent shot to pile up some strikeouts and get some guys whiffing because he's going to just try to pump this fastball and then in two strike counts you know he can hit him with the slider which he throws around 10 of the time or whatever so i'm i'm encouraged about bobby i've been always been a big bobby miller fan i liked him more than any

of the dodger guys for quite some time and don't you yeah don't you think that there's an opportunity here for him to yeah well we were talking off air that like the julio aria situation gets bobby miller to literally like piggyback days with g Stone. And I think this is a pure audition period. Like I don't, even though they said like Gavin Stone's going to get starts, I don't think that's guaranteed. I think over these next two, three starts,

Bobby Miller has as much of a chance as Gavin Stone to take over that long term role. If, if, and when earlier areas comes back and they have to send one down, I don't know. I kind of lean that. I think, I think at the end of the day, I think it's stone that is going to go away.

That's my gut. I mean, you know, by Miller can get lit up for 18 runs or whatever, but I think, I think he's going to find that. That'd be amazing if they committed to him to do a lot, many runs. Um, but I think Bobby Miller is going to find some good success. I think that power, I think that power fastball is going to play. And there's some pretty big spin on his secondaries that I think he's going to get some wh success. I think that power fastball is going to play, and there's some pretty big spin on his secondaries that I think he's going to get some whiffs in that first game.

So people who listen to more than one podcast that I'm on might remember on the 3-0 show this year, I made the bold prediction that the Dodgers would narrowly miss the playoffs. And I looked at a few things, and I said, they're relying a lot on the young guys. If Miguel Vargas and James Altman aren't very good, if Max Muncy's not past Muncy, they're going to have problems. And if the young pitching doesn't come through,

they're just not going to be that same team. They've ticked all the boxes so far. It is a bold prediction that has gone very flat so far. But hey, time's still on my side. There's still a lot of time for chaos to reign in the league. I don't want chaos. I just know it's coming anyway. I think the problem I have

with the Dodgers rotation, that's a good thing, I think in this case, Stone and Miller could both stay in the rotation if Tony Gonsolin gets hurt again or if Noah Syndergaard is still not pitching very well

or if Kershaw has his usual three to four week stint on the IA. Any and all of those things could open the door for both if they perform. The problem that they have is that they pitch for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have other guys they can turn to if they don't like what they're getting from Stone and Miller.

They can just keep going into the cupboard. I think they have that sort of depth. And Emmitt Sheehan. I mean, I've been trying to preach about Emmitt Sheehan. That's the next guy who kind of lives in a similar Bobby Miller world. It's a big power fastball. One of the top K guys in the entire league. He pitched in the AFL, was probably one of the most consistent best pitchers

in the Arizona Fall League last year. Even though he's at AA, he's had the experience. They built him up, and he's had some walk issues. All these guys have this big power stuff, these big power pitches that are having walk issues, but no Dodgers pitcher has been a bigger strikeout option than Emmitt Sheehan and I think he's ready. So to your point, if one of these guys doesn't work out, Emmitt Sheehan's going to get some run at some point this year

and he's a guy who's been putting up 10 strikeouts left and right, but he did have a five walk game but yeah i agree with that like syndergaard might be a reason why two rookies can take over a rotation spot but none of these guys are guaranteed just because they're here to hold on to it because you do have other pitchers that are in the wings emmett sheehan in my mind being the next guy kind of a never-ending competition for the Dodgers. Yeah. Yeah, and I think one thing that you can't say about the Yankees in opposition is that they definitely haven't had that same depth of starting pitcher at their disposal. And right now, it looks like they're fielding an all right front five

with Severino coming back. Rodon sometime coming back. He's with the team now, actually. They just said they announced today he like has joined the team and this in process. So that's a good sign. To continue his rehab, though. So that's also weird. But any case, they could get close to the point where they're pushing Clark Schmidt down to a number six and being fully healthy.

However, we also know that, you know, like you just said about the Dodgers, their injuries are always there for them. You know, Herman could get injured or Rodon could not come back from this back thing. There's there's definitely that. And I think beyond Clark Schmidt, I have not been in love with Brito. And so that's why I wanted to bring up Will Warren because now he's at AAA. He's got the kind of Hayden Wesnenski selection of pitches where it's a sinker, sweeper, gyro slider. And I think maybe a little bit of the same sort of maybe command issues that wesnenski that maybe got him sent down uh but also kind of an interesting player because he

is definitely a product of the yankees player development philosophy he's just another wesnenski and uh you know warren uh could be jumping ahead of Brito, Tully, Vasquez. That's their depth. So right now, Will Warren might be the number seven in New York. And sevens get innings. So I just wanted to throw him out there as a deeper man. We actually had a question about Hayden Wisneski from Aaron, and the subject line was Holden Wisneski.

It was a question about whether or not Hayden Wisneski should be stashed while he's at AAA it was a pretty bumpy start to the season the K rate dipped from where it was last year right in the brief time we saw Hayden Wisneski last season 25% K rate good control pretty good swinging strike rate underneath the K rate too so it made some sense that you could buy in and possibly get a pretty good back-end starting pitcher with Ks. I get the sense they will need him again in Chicago, so you'll get innings again later, but the bigger question is, can he figure it out? Do you want those innings? Yeah, do you want those innings?

The last time I looked, the four-seamer was getting hammered. Hayden Wisniewski's fastball was just getting obliterated by opposing hitters. And it's not good. And that seems like a huge problem. 78 plus fastball, yeah. I think his sinker is good. The problem is he's sinker, cutter,

sweeper, and lefties. You know what I mean? You can't be a one-pitch guy against lefties. So he's trying to be fastball cutter against lefties and that ain't working. So I don't know if he just needs to just embrace the sinker, find some places he can stick the sinker or embrace the change or be cutter change against lefties. But he needs to find something out against lefties.

I'm saying all this without looking at his splits because you know sometimes splits can tell a lie but yeah 340 Woba no why did that just change in front of my eyes that was very strange 433 Woba against lefties 285 against righties I mean that's everything he needs to find. Like lefties hit this year, three 25, three 66, six 62 against him.

But as much as you want to say, well, don't hold him. That's terrible. Right. He's hit two 34, two 77, three 77 against him.

So I still think he's kind of like a, he's like a, a stroke of genius away from being a good pitcher. You know what I mean? Like there's just, there's something he just didn't figure something out against. It's funny you say that. I was thinking of like how the rays sent down Taj Bradley and they're like,

you need to stop throwing the curve ball and your cutter percentage needs to go down. A really good organization would probably be like, okay, so you'll never, ever throw your four seam ever again. This will, we're going to pretend you don't own this pitch anymore. And then let's start from there.

That'd be, and I wanted to take a look real quick, our lovely foray into baseball savant and trying to quickly get to something. I couldn't even get to it. I wanted to get to see his last start. I must be on the wrong day i wanted to see if the pitch usage has changed because you're right when you look at him that i mean the fastball heat zone too is like absurdly ridiculous it should just go back to sinker it and then the i mean the sweeper was the second most uh thrown pitch go sinker sweeper cutter with the occasional change up and i was curious

but of course i can't get to it uh because i must have picked a wrong day he's cut his forcing usage but he's still using a 25 overall and when you look at lefties it's that's the problem he's using a 25 against lefties he can't cut it against lefties and he's throwing the sweeper to lefties because he just doesn't have any other pitches you know like you can't just throw a cutter over and over again so uh but if you look at his last few games the combined uses of the cutter and change is the most he's had against lefties uh and i bet you i would that's what i would do if i sent him down i'd say hey how about cutter change against lefties with the occasional back foot sweeper

yeah i've been trying to is that can that get you through some lefty yeah and let's say i think i finally got it because it looks like they played a double header on the 20th here we go okay we got it so here is okay so we have an interesting development uh in his last start his four-seam fastball was the third most used pitch instead of being the number one most used pitch he was 31 sweeper 27 sinker 26 uh four seam with a nine percent cutter on it and uh his fastball actually had a 57 whiff rate in that game maybe because of the different usage 32 percent whiff rate 28 percent csw uh he actually had five more called strikes he had a 43 csw on his fourth seam fastball so it's not going anywhere especially when those minor league numbers are there but maybe the usage of it is going to help because it was overwhelmingly the top pitch like a

two strike thing or like just you have to throw it outside of the zone up. You know what I mean? Like never throw it in the zone. Yeah. So that might be encouraging. That might be something encouraging to see is that they're embracing that sinker usage is the thing that jumps out here. Cause that was lower and it's more of a three pitch mix, not heavily relying on the four seam.

And maybe that's going to make it more effective. So, you know, I mean, it's triple a, but you could maybe be optimistic. And generally the thing that I like about him is, you know, a bunch of different pitches, some that have, that are really good, you know, and then some that aren't. And so he needs to kind of sort through them and figure out what he can do with

them. You know, 16% sinker on the year, 26% in the minor. So it's a 10% increase usage of the sinker since he's been sent down. So maybe that will unlock. So generally someone you still believe in, if you're in a situation where you have guys giving you innings right now and you need innings, and Aaron's particular question was, Ryan Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Michael Lorenzen,

who you'd picked up for that two-step. I love Luis Ortiz. So if I could trade some upside in the big leagues for some upside in the minor leagues, I'm going to take the upside. What do you do with Luis Ortiz? This last start was incredible. The start before that, he looked so bad. It was unbelievable.

That pitch, he could not throw a strike. He was walking everybody. He's just so inconsistent. It drives me bonkers. I have a theory about him. So, you know, one of the things he struggles with is separating his two seam and his four seam. And I think that is actually his command issue. Because if you think about it, if you were trying to replicate a fastball and sometimes it comes out as a four seam, sometimes it comes out as a two seam, right?

Like you're going to miss your spots and you're going to walk people. And so I'd be tempted if I coached him to wonder if he should like really almost like turf one of the fastballs and just have one fastball that he can repeat over and over again and he can at least know where to put them.

Of course, everybody wants someone to have a four seam and a two seam so you can throw the four seam to lefties and the two seam varieties and you know that sort of deal but um if if the end goal is for him to be able to command the pitches and not do any of them let's start before last then i think maybe it's almost like the switch hitter thing it's like okay switch hitting is not working you know having two fastballs not working let's have one fast ball that you can actually command because otherwise i just i the breaking ball i love i think the change up looks good the velo is really good so you know if i could make that choice right now i would do it just because they both have a fair amount of upside and one's in the middle and why wouldn't they do wouldn't they do that? Why is there not a look at and deciphering this?

Would you want to change something like that in season for a guy like this at the majors? Well, I think he's still in the developmental phase. You know what I mean? So if you're developing him, then you want to ideate on the best possible outcome for him, which is you have a four-seam and a sinker. But if you just keep flogging that four-seam and it's not working and they're just blending together... Let me see if I can find a good way to do this.

Horizontal movement? No, that's not it. Vertical movement, maybe. When you watch him, it's definitely one of those arsenals you're like, this guy should get a lot more strikeouts. It's there.

You can see all the pieces. The vertical movement is dropping on his foreseam, and it's getting closer to the sinker. So there is less separation between the two pitches which might also be maybe he's hammering a little bit more too and he's losing command with the two seam or the sinker

yeah I mean I just think that there's something there where it has to do with fastball command when you watch him you're like oh these pitches are all amazing why don't you get more whiffs I think it has to do with fastball command. When you watch him, you're like, oh, these pitches are all amazing. Why don't you get more whiffs? I think it has to do with getting ahead to get those whiffs. At the end of the day, though, circling back, Luis Ortiz, a better project to buy in on than holding a Hayden

Wisniewski for when he comes back up. If that's the choice at your disposal that your disposal then yeah that's i'm doing that but if you're if you're talking about like i'm in a deep keeper league should i just like drop him like i'd rather i'd rather hold uh was nesky so yeah but if you if you're at all like about this year then i think it's about the guy that's helping you now. Yeah. Right. Yeah. If you're playing long-term, Wisneski over Ryan Nelson? Yeah. I think so.

Okay. That's probably a sweep then. I think I'm also on the Wisneski side. It's close. So it really depends on how badly you need the innings in the short term. And Nelson could be in danger of going down for a little bit. That's very much in the range of outcomes for him. Big start for him Tuesday night

coming up on the road against the Phillies as they get a little healthier in that group. It's also blah for Nelson. And I think the fastball sometimes is good and sometimes is bad. And then if you just look at Nelson's, what he's done so far this year, it's like all schedule.

You know what I mean? You're like, oh, he's done so far this year, it's, it's like all schedule. I mean, like, yeah, like you're like, Oh, he's been better recently. Well, yeah. He went to Oakland. He went to Washington. That was pretty good. So I, I, I, I'm terrified of throwing Ryan Nelson and in like a good matchup for the hitters, you know, like a tough matchup.

So let's be clear when it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all also FedEx impressive? Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about FedEx? Oh, but let's say that... FedEx.

What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to

support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Yeah, that's where I've been for a while. That Oakland spot was the rare, I feel good about this opportunity for Ryan Nelson. Thanks a lot for that question, Aaron. Let's talk about Forrest Whitley for a moment. The Astros are having some issues in the back of their rotation.

I say this on the eve of a Brandon Bielek start against the Brewers on Wednesday that'll probably make me tear some hair out Bielek is that number five starter right now JP France has a spot in the rotation Lance McCullers still several weeks away I think I saw July as a timetable for him Whitley is for me a pretty harsh lesson in how it can go wrong for a very, very good pitching prospect. There are plenty of people that had Whitley as the number one pitching prospect in baseball. It was a deep arsenal with premium

velocity and a great organization. Everything you could possibly want. He's 6'7", he's 240, he's got five pitches. What could possibly go wrong? Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. Tommy John surgery, just all sorts of stuff. It doesn't look like he's gotten it back.

I mean, you used to have whiff rates that were almost 50% higher than what he's showing. He's tweaked stuff. I remember James Anderson and I, you know, the first time Forrest Whitley was there, we were watching him and it was at Scottsdale Stadium. And we were standing on the concourse and just watching him blow 97 by guys and we're like this is the best guy ever and then he had a suspension issue an injury issue uh he came back to the arizona fall league he lost command of pitches he was trying to re-establish ways to pitch in the a Fall League, more injuries, inconsistencies. It's everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

And it's still not right in the minors. So that's the weird thing about this situation. It's still not good. His ERA is inflated. His walk rate's almost five. There's no underlying like, hey, XFIP is better. It's four or five. It's not good. I thought he used to be like

a good forcing guy i'm looking at his stuff plus numbers and he's a sinker curve guy now yeah but that i think that was part of like he he altered his arm angle in the arizona fall league a couple years ago because he wasn't he was because he was he was just pumping four seams and i don't think he i don't think he could throw it anymore. He lost complete command. Because I remember watching some spring starts where that fastball was just everywhere. So this was probably, I don't recall when any type of change like this happened. But he probably was able to bully in more command of a sinker than he was in a four seam. But that's also equating to lower strikeout numbers. His walk rates are still high.

I want to believe, but the only thing I believe Forrest Whitley is going to be able to do is be a bullpen arm. I just think this is like Andrew Miller over again. Maybe he can be a dominant one-inning guy, but the team has not made the commitment because he can still throw hard. It's just second time through the order, I think you're done. I want to believe because we all believed for so long. And we saw Mackenzie Gore go through like two or three years of absolute garbage,

look like one of the worst pitchers, and find it. But we're like four or five years into this now. Like this is a long time ago when Forrest Whitley was the top guy. And there's really no signs of life except what? He's at AAA and there's an opportunity out there. Yet he's still not getting the opportunity. JP France, Brian Beelick. Those are the guys getting the opportunity because I don't think they believe he can

go five. I'm surprised that change hasn't happened into a bullpen arm yet, but I don't know what the relative changes are with force Whitley. I would love for him to succeed and be cool again, but I don't think it's happening. Yeah. Ors Whitley. I would love for him to succeed and be cool again, but I don't think it's happening. Yeah, I mean, they've had so much success with relievers that have had flaws, but they've become dominant. Maybe that's the path for him, and a couple more years pass and something else changes. But I kept looking at him and thinking, is he a good keeper in Dynasty Stash, given what's happening right now? The usage of AAA has been really frustrating.

I know he hasn't thrown that many innings in recent years because of all those injuries and the suspension that you mentioned but it's all threes and four and change so far yeah four and two thirds is the most he's picked i mean just think about also just like how long this guy's been around he's all he's he's locking up to 26 here soon he's had injuries and stuff yet he's still not going five innings he's not going five like me like this there's no comp here but just want to point out like mason miller had less minor league innings in his career and made it to the majors then uh are just about the same innings that forest whitley has just this year and he still can't get there i mean it's just a it's it's a it's a mess and i think they ask i think the astros are telling us about forrest whitley everything that had gone through you'd give this

guy a chance if he was something i don't know that they can push themselves into it they haven't fixed anything and um i just don't i don't know the format where you keep forrest whitley you could name me off formats and i'd probably be like no, no, and no. I have Elvin Rodriguez in Devil's Rejects, which is a 20 team 40 man rosters, I think. It's deep leagues, yeah. Yeah, real deep. And I'm

not dropping Elvin Rodriguez for Forestwood. I agree. Is Whitley a free agent in that league? I don't even... I don't know if I'm running to check. Elvin did just go on the IL by the way in the minor just oh I think I think it's only a seven seven day or something but just pointing there's something going on in Houston I don't know that it's uh like a slowing of the player development machine that's over there but I would say that they've cleaned the cupboard out so

thoroughly there's nothing left in terms of arms I'm looking at the fangraphs 2022 update for the for the uh for houston and i've and i've just clicked through all of the pitchers the starting pitchers in the top 20 uh so by the time you get to the end of the top 20 you're talking about 35 future value those are not even considered usually to be future starters so i looked in their top 20 in the average era of their top 20 if starters in their top 20 prospects other than hunter brown is like a six so it's not i mean i guess it could just be whitley or it just could be that they've kind of they've graduated everybody yeah and they didn't replenish uh they they now i will say they do have a guy

who's interesting let me look at his numbers before i start spouting out how awesome it is yeah uh andrew taylor who they just drafted last year in the competitive round six and a three and a half era 38 strikeouts in 27 innings he's in low a ball um i've got him on my right they said the a ball guys like michael noor who was drafted in 2022 in the third round uh you know is in their top 20 and he's got a he's got sort of eye-popping-ish uh strikeout rates 38 percent yeah uh but he's an able but they're all yeah exactly they're all far away they didn't do the replenishment uh along the way or or they just didn't pull a royals where they're like okay screw it like let's just get like seven guys that are in the high A, double A

that can move quickly. They've also lost picks. They didn't have a whole bunch of picks. Oh, and they got in trouble. Yeah, they got in trouble. And then the hitting development is on a positive side because Drew Gilbert looks like one of the bigger steals from last year's draft and first-year player drafts

who's already up at double A, and he could start contributing i think tomorrow i mean jose altuve went out of his way after a rehab stint to say how impressive drew gilbert is and that he's ready he's ready to come up and they got a kid ryan clifford who also out of that draft so i think they did a really good job as far as the hitting goes but yeah they don't have a new fresh set of guys that can help this year next year on both sides and it seems to be a little bit more weighted towards hitting than it is pitching and you know what do you do they don't make trades to bring in new pitching prospects they it's just not been part of their um their algorithm lately so it puts them in a bind where they're sitting here

being like oh my god we have forrest whitley and we can't do anything with them because this is it. This is our only option. Yeah. There's two names that at double a, just leaderboard surfing that have K minus BB percentages over 20 rec Cuba and Colton Gordon, but they're not, they're not guys that you're going to find on prospect list. I think they're using both as starters,

at least Cuba mostly as a starter so far, but they're 23 and 24 years old. They're not young guys, so if they come through and end up being quality pitchers for them, then there are some potential development wins there. But I think you guys are right. I think it's a wave that's a little ways away for that next group of Houston pitchers.

So it's going to be interesting to see what they do if they have more injury problems before McCullers gets back especially because they're starting to thin out pretty good as far as those major league options. We really haven't seen that happen to them. Are we seeing a wave in San Francisco? Is there a little mini wave? Is there like a little segue? You're talking about the Casey Schmidt plus now Patrick Bailey?

I mean, Patrick Bailey. Harrison's on the way. Harrison might be playing well again, isn't he? Matos has been he got a promotion up to AAA. He was one of the best bat, one of those surprisingly great bats in the AFL this past year that just keeps moving up. And pretty incredible, too, because I have a vivid memory of that. Whatever it was, 2018, i guess it's not that vivid because i don't remember the year but uh that year of rookie ball where you know it was

a corby carroll and cj abrams but the giants team had luis matos marco luciano and jairo pomeris three big prospects all on their rookie ball team and guess what luis matos is gonna beat them all he and i would have never thought that he's the guy that I think actually came later. This is after having a 74 WRC plus last year in April. Yeah, he had big struggles. He's made big improvements. Yeah, so there's a mini wave, at least. The development is pushing the guys that are going to be ready.

Casey Schmidt, Kyle Harrison will be there. On the Patrick Bailey front, the minute Patrick Bailey got drafted, I instantly saw, oh, Joey Bart is going to at best be a first baseman for this team, and Patrick Bailey will be their catcher for the future because defensively that's where his home is. He's a stud, stud defensive catcher, great framer. There's a couple videos out there that have already shown some of his really good framing.

But fantasy-wise, I'm not really in fantasy-wise. Pulled a nice homer, but he's hitting under 200. Doesn't strike out a bunch. I think he's just fine. He's a way better real-life player than I think fantasy player. Well, I think at catcher, it's pretty interesting because sometimes that works for us. We play in so many two-catcher leagues that being the better real-life player might mean you get two-thirds of the playing time.

And as long as you offer something, either in terms of not being a liability on average or you can pop 10 or 12 or 15 homers, that's usually good enough for a second catcher spot. So this is pretty interesting. I remember the night they drafted Patrick Bailey, MLB Network, of course, trying to make the MLB draft like the NFL drafts. How are they going to make all the catchers work?

They got Buster Posey and they got Joey Bart and now Patrick Bailey. And it's like, well, time sort of answers those questions in baseball. Obviously, Buster Posey retired and we've learned a lot more about Joey Bart. And yeah, and you got Universal DH. So all of those things have occurred just in a little bit of time since they drafted Bailey. But I think when the catcher pool has been kind of rough this year in redraft,

there hasn't been a lot of value that's surfaced. There've been a couple of younger guys that have underperformed in single catcher leagues that have left people scrambling unexpectedly. And I think, you know, looking at the tools and the grades and everything on Bailey, yeah, I'm like calmly saying it's more of a second catcher in a 15 team league sort of profile. It's not a must go get in your 10 team one catcher league sort of thing.

But yeah, if you think they're going to kind of look more to the future, guys like Bailey and Schmidt are going to play a ton for this Giants team. Yeah. Also, there's like there's a ton for this Giants team. Yeah. Also there's like a, there's a, that catching Renaissance. We talked about, I talked about this a lot over the last like two years where there is this, again, just keeping with the theme, the wave of these catching prospects that were ranking so high and that they were starting to, they're starting to come up to the majors.

Well, this is happening. So, you know, I kind of almost like a tiny bit disagree like with the catching sentiment of what you said, like catching. Yeah. It hasn hasn't been maybe magnificent but i do feel like there has been value you know gabriel moreno has jumped way up jonah heim has been a huge advantage sean murphy i mean like the the i don't i hate in fantasy and everyone knows about me i hate paying up for catcher i think it's silly i want to play in the middle and the middle is where the payoff comes. But to your point, it did fall off in those two catcher leagues on that later ladder second catcher. But there are a lot of rookies that are going to pop up. So Patrick Bailey's, I think, cool right now. But you are going to get the Kevin Paradas that are coming

soon. Offensive base catcher, Diego Cartaya, Dalton rushing with the Dodgers and Henry Davis. You know, Henry Davis should qualify when he comes up as a primary catcher. So there's a lot of these guys that are going to improve the pool, which will be nice. I just don't know if Patrick Bailey's offense is going to be able to be on par with all those names I just talked about. I think it's behind every single one of those. And those are just like some of the top 100 catchers.

Yeah, we're already seeing Francisco Alvarez, so much raw power in that profile. I think it's behind every single one of those. And those are just like some of the top 100 catchers. Yeah, we're already seeing Francisco Alvarez, so much raw power in that profile. You would look at his offensive ceiling compared to Bailey's. There's a pretty big difference favoring Alvarez there. We've talked about Andy Rodriguez, his versatility. Both he and Davis could be on the same team together, and Rodriguez can play all over. We saw Logan Ohapi for a little while before that injury. It looked like he was going to have a really nice campaign.

Lisa was putting the early pieces together for that. I hope we see Bo Naylor soon. I know he's having issues controlling the running game. According to the Guardians, that's the big problem right now. I have no idea why they can't find a way to make him fit in a horrible offense. They're awful. They brought him up for a doubleheader.

Their lineup is horrendous. How do you not have offense. They're awful. They brought him up for a double header and their lineup is horrendous. How do you not have some room for Bo Naylor to play sometimes? That just blows my mind. But there is a Guardians player that just went back on the minor league IL that I think is kind of interesting. It's George Valera because he's been very

young for the level everywhere he's played. There's plenty of raw power. Certainly there are some questions about swing and miss, but Welsh, are we at the point where George Valera's become a little bit underrated in part because of time lost to injuries? That's a good question. I'm a difficult person to answer that because I have a long history with Valera from rookie ball and the amount of time I spent with him and interviews and talking with him.

And I've always been a big fan. So like Tim, Tim, to me, ironically, I'd actually say like, he's not really underrated in that. It's actually more frustrating than anything else that this is like the

second or third time this has happened this year. It has been consistent. He actually might be one of the most injury prone minor leaguers that I've ever seen. And the kid is only 22 years old. But to your point, I think so many people have kind of fallen off of the George Valera train because guys like me pushed him up so high. And he has had those struggles.

And he's had batting average struggles that I do think he's someone who should be paid attention to in some of those deeper leagues where people might have let go of him because what are the encouraging things? His strikeout rate in just a few of the games that he came up this year dropped. He's continued to always walk. The problem is the quality of contact has never been there. But the guy has a Robinson Cano-like swing that everyone will fall in love with. He's got easy 20-plus power. He can run a bit,

but he's going to fill out where he's going to be more of a middle of the order hitter than he is going to ever steal. The problem is, is he's had like a hand, he's had multiple like hammock bone and wrist injuries that are keeping him off that I do think those are kind of making him,

the prospect, he's going to have like a prospect rebound at some point where everyone's gonna be like, holy crap, like George Valera is here and he's doing something the problem is is yeah like you said the injuries have kept him from having like a full season to really get stuff together i would say he's a can i thought he was a candidate to come up to the majors this year but uh i don't know where this is going and it might lead him to an afl stint but yeah you should pay attention to

valera this year because he has the tools to be a successful fantasy player it's just they keep kind of falling apart. And it also strikes me when I'm looking at him that he's just not a Guardians type player. Yeah, very much so. You're right about that. I mean, he's just, you know, the strikeout rate's too high. It's a weird line. It's not exactly what you'd expect from a Guardians player.

But there was an interesting thing in an interview with Andrew Baggerly, uh, where he talked to Farhan Zayi and he said, Hey, uh, you know, I'm not accusing you of anything, but you know,

you guys have a sort of organizational values when it comes to things like controlling the, the strike zone and this and that. And, um, you look up and you look at this major league team and it's pretty white, you know, is there,

is there like a way that you kind of fall in love with your organizational values in terms of what you're looking for and that those things might be fostered and say like a college environment more than, you know you aren't drafting these kinds of players because they don't they're not exhibiting these things and you end up being not having a diverse set of approaches in your big league team and he said that's the thing that we think about a lot on the Giants Farhan said and and it's I think it's it's difficult because you like I've said a lot of times in the show before it was just you want to tell your your your coaches that you believe in something you want to have an approach you want to be like hey we love believe in something. You want to have an approach. You want to be like, hey, we love controlling the strike zone. Or if you're the Guardians, we love contact. We want contact above everything else. And then what happens to George Valera? So I wonder what the Guardians think internally of George Valera.

Are they excited about him because he's different and he's not necessarily the same as they've all become before? Or are they saying, eh, he doesn't really fit our whole scheme. And like, you know, we'll find time to, if someone gets injured, maybe he gets a shot. You know, like, like I don't have a sense of this from the outside, but you know, I wonder what Valera's stature is within the organization as being a guy who strikes out that much on a team that he loves not he's very Highly sought-out. I mean he's best friends with the earliest was with Brian Rocio Those guys have been kind of attached at the hip for a long time guy who has like half his strike exactly But he's always been seen as he's had a superstar kind of quality and I think they have seen that in him very high

He's an interesting story, George Valera. He actually grew up in the US and his father got in a really bad car accident when he was like 13 or 14. And they had to move to the Dominican Republic because of the cold weather was affecting his father. So he went over to the Dominican Republic and then he was able to sign internationally. So he was a huge high dollar international signing out of the J2 at the time, the J2 class. And he had played, you know, prep ball here and then went over there. And he exhibits this. They love it.

I think they still love the swing, his ability to walk. I think they feel like they can fix some of the strikeout issues. He's got superstar quality. And I think he's always been seen in that respect. But there has to be a frustration with the amount of time i mean literally my first time talking with george valera was because he had the hammock injury and he was missing the championship of the guardians and the afl and we talked for half an hour like he's always hurt and that's got to change injured both hammocks because as pablo sandoval said no more hammocks no more problem

it is but like, I think Valera will be a fun story down the road. He's just like, as a top 100 guy, I think he has easy top 100 prospect return, but I don't think a lot of people are valuing it there because they're like, what are we going to do with the strikeout rates, the batting average rates,

and he never plays. But I do think we're going to see him at some point this year and I will probably be geeking out about it. Got one last question for you guys. And by the way, I don't, my type of player is not the same type of player as the Cleveland Guardians.

So I would be interested in George Valera. I would acquire George Valera. You like your high strikeouts, your bad stuff, all that, a load'em player? Yeah, well, I'd like guys that hit the ball hard.? Yeah, well, I like guys that hit the ball hard. I don't think Cleveland really likes guys that hit the ball hard. At least they don't know how to find them. That's the problem they're running into right now.

I think if I like any approach to acquiring talent, I like their raise. They acquire guys who hit the ball hard and have a good sense of the zone and make good contact, and they do that at the expense of barrels. Sometimes they hit the ball hard on the ground, but it still ends up being okay. Let's give Valera to the Rays, please. You have to hit the ball hard to hit a barrel. To ever hit the barrel.

There are ways to hit the ball harder. We know that's a newer part of what people can do in the offseason, train with heavier bats, all the different things you can do to increase bat speed. But it's easier to hit the ball in the air more often, comparatively speaking, at least I believe it is, than it is to start hitting the ball harder. I think that takes a lot more. So it might be why the Rays go that route.

Is this a window to deal for Jordan Lawler in long-term leagues? He's struggling a bit at AA, kind of goes back to last season. He struck out about 30% of the times it's arriving there last year. He is very young for the level. We've seen in-game power. We're seeing an efficient base stealer. He's still the long-term shortstop of the future for the D-backs. And I just feel like he's one of those elite of the elite prospects who, because of his initial struggles at AA, is actually obtainable in fantasy leagues right now.

He's not untouchable, and we're hitting that sweet spot. We're approaching the Memorial Day weekend. Everyone starts to get a little antsy this time of year and is willing to make trades. So if you're in a situation where you're playing for the future, there's someone who has Jordan Lawler in your league, maybe they're playing for now, I actually think you can get something done.

Are there any red flags that I'm missing in this profile that would give you pause at this point? What do you think, Welsh? I mean, the red flag would be the strikeout percentage. Around 32% is a bit of a problem. I actually thought this was something he was going to be able to control as he moved up levels, and it's gotten worse at every single level. He did a really good job in

the AFL, but he has literally gone from a ball to 23% strikeout rate up to 31. But I completely agree with you because it's since complex league, it's the highest walk percentage he's had. His ground ball rate is actually the lowest we've seen. His line drive rate is up. They're not counting complex league. It's the highest that it's been. Fly ball rate is up. And he also has an insanely low BABIP. It's like 200.

And in the minors, I think he's had an average of around, just around three, like 295. So I think there's been a lot of bad luck. There's a really big transitional period of going to AA. That jump from like high eight to double-A is huge. So I'm worried about the strikeout rate, but I think a lot of other things are still in his favor.

He still can absolutely put 20-25 in the air. He can absolutely steal 20-25, and I think he can be a number three hitter for the Diamondbacks. So we need to see the strikeouts go down, but I'm encouraged that he's not hitting a bunch of stuff into the ground. He's still hitting a lot of line drives, actually pulling the ball more than ever. I think it just needs to be an adjustment. So I think I agree with you. It's a great, great time to buy. Do you think that the labrum tear has anything to do with anything? Um, I mean, he, he, he didn't play in 2021 basically because he had labrum

surgery. Yeah, but he played like, Yeah, but he played in the AFL. Well, actually, he got hurt again in the AFL, and he missed the last two-thirds of the Arizona Fall League. He got some time into last year. He played a ton in spring. Maybe I'm making excuses. I don't feel like it affected Corbin Carroll. I feel like it's affecting Drew Jones is a little bit more affected by the injuries.

He's already had three injuries off of of the big one and he's missing some big developmental time. I think it's like just three labrums. I think it's like, yeah, no, it's crazy. I think it's just developmental time of seeing pitches.

And I think that's what Jordan Lawler is at. Jordan Lawler is experiencing, I think a new group of pitchers that are being attacked. You also have, I don't know how much, if there's any, if he's dealing with teams that have that tacked up ball and are getting better grips and stuff like that,

you don't really know the full effect of it, but I'm going to say no overall, because it seems like he's been relatively healthy since. Yeah. I think it's good. One of those moves, you can, you can make it right now.

You can get them right now in a long-term league, but a few months from now or early next season, it might be a lot harder to trade. Or he might not even be a top prospect. I mean, he's out of fulcrum right now. I mean, we're talking about 230, 250 plate appearances of below 100 WRC plus at AA. I mean, I don't know.

I don't want to be the stinker in the room but like if he does this for another 200 innings he's not a prospect well he's still a prospect another 200-400 plate appearances but I do agree like that's what he has an 80 WRC plus for the year this year in AA he's not a prospect

you need to see it turn even if I would still though say again it's not linear he could struggle this whole year and we can find, and we can rebound from this, but he'll lose. It would change his sense. Yeah.

And it'll change his sense of it. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Right. So there being a top 10 or top 20 guy, he'll be a top 50 or top 60 guy. Yeah.

But he's still going to play in the big leagues and he's still going to hit for power and steal bases once he gets there. And maybe this is like just way too simple and I'm too simplifying it. But like if I didn't see like an insanely dramatic low BABIP, I might be like a little bit like, yeah, let's sit around and maybe let's see if this gets any better. But like that BABIP, that's gonna change.

You're not gonna have a 200 the whole year. Like he's gonna improve to what level we don't know or the strikeouts gonna get any better. Those aren't necessarily correlated. But I tend to think when I see like a super low BABIP like that, it's going to bounce back. So this is a time, I'm with you, DVR, like I think I could pull the trigger right now

and not worry too much about more downside or too much more downside. I know what I'm going to be doing this evening when I'm stuck on the phone trying to make moves after feeding the baby. So I've got a plan for my Tuesday night. Nice little Tuesday in the Van Piper. Little Jordan Lawler, little Home Depot. Don't know what you got to sleep on the couch.

Yeah, that's all all all of the above. If you want more fun things to do than trying to trade for Jordan Lawler, check out a subscription to the Athletic. Two dollars a month gets you in the door. The Athletic dot com slash ratesbarrels will actually get you that offer. You can find us all on Twitter. You can find Eno at Eno Saris. Welsh is at IsItTheWelsh. I am at Derek the Riper. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.