Rates & Barrels - Project Prospect - Optioned, But Not Forgotten

Episode Date: March 21, 2023

Eno and Welsh react to Roki Sasaki's electric stuff in the WBC. Project Prospect continues as the guys look at players that were optioned, but could still be up soon, as well surprising names still in camp. Rundown 3:20 - Roki Sasaki reactions 14:35 - Brandon Pfaadt 23:10 - Christian Encarnacion-Strand 27:12 - Addison Barger 33:37 - Kyle Manzardo 38:52 - Gavin Stone 41:52 - Bryce Miller 47:09 - Ben Joyce Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I am Chris Welsh, who you can find on Twitter. That is Eno Saris on Twitter at Eno Saris as well. Look at us. We are here today to talk to you about some prospects. It's project prospect, if you will. We are going to be talking about guys that were optioned but not counted out. There's also some still in-camp surprises that we've got to get to you. So lots of prospect talk, even though we're in like a weird space of time before prospect things are going to really kick off because there's all these minor league things going on. Plus, Mr. Eno Saris, how about an incredible WBC game that we had last night where Japan came back and now we are getting Japan versus USA tonight as we are recording this. I am pretty excited, my friend.

Yesterday was such a back and forth affair that it was just really fun and riveting, I thought, all the way to the end. Just looking at Shohei Otani celebrating on second was just another example of how into it these players are. I loved Randy Rosarena mean mugging after he stole that homer. I loved him signing autographs while the game was on. Let me ask you something. What is more iconic in your mind, the Adam Jones the adam jones catch or the randy rosarena mean mug

i think the actual play uh goes to jones because he was further up and and and stole you know more likely a homer randy's was somewhere in between a double and a homer and not quite as high in the air but the the the mean mug the celebration afterwards goes to Rosarena. And we were joking about it because the kids are in Little League. And, you know, my younger son, just an update on him because he's the troll son that was rooting for Cuba the night before, was rooting for Japan last night. And we went cleat shopping.

He bought white cleats. So just a little bit of a window into his personality as well. was rooting for Japan last night and we went cleat shopping. He bought white cleats. So just a little bit of a, of a window into his personality as well. So he really loved the Randy Rosarito stuff. And I did have to point out that maybe his coach doesn't love him as much as other people. He's out there. He's out there in cowboy boots and a sombrero during shag shagging flies uh i don't know maybe his coach

loves him uh his coach probably loves the production uh but uh like a little league coach would not love my kid uh running around in cowboy boots in the outfield i didn't realize the level of troll not just japan but also was going for Cuba. So this is just a pure, like the, it's kind of an underdog. It may be not even just a troll. He's an underdog guy.

No, it's the rest of the family is rooting for this. And I'm going to root for this other thing. That's a child. That's a true child. What do you guys want? I don't want that. Yeah.

I'll tell you one thing. It was pretty easy to root for Japan watching Roki Sasaki last night. It was real. I mean, getting eyes on like full game action, really put into perspective so much of what this guy was all about on paper. The stats didn't necessarily like jump out. It was four innings, three earned runs. He gave up a big Homer, Dulys, Urias, uh only three strikeouts but behind the scenes you really saw everything that this guy was about hitting 102 and i had this audible like where i was like okay like when he threw this 92 mile an hour splitter that had preceded the 102 fastball

i was i thought it was like a slider because it had so much action. And it was really interesting too, because he seems to be able to have different variations of that same sport. He can do different stuff with it, which I thought was really sneaky. Kind of like how some guys will do, you know, a slider. Sometimes it'll bite. Sometimes it might cut down. Like he had different ways he could throw it while pumping huge huge fastballs

you know so i was really curious on your take of what you saw out of roki sasaki yeah it was amazing uh it was just uh just a just a just a like a like a like a like ah you know like it's like what is this like someone pumping like cold water on you you You're like, whoa! What? And then Luis Urias took a splitter deep, and I had my inner Nick Pollock in my ear, where he's over at Pitcher List, and he talks about pitchers not really being able to command the splitter just because of the way you're gripping it. It's coming off your weaker fingers,

or it's coming out from between two fingers. I agree with him. It's probably not a pitch you can command that well. I generally don't think pitchers command all their pitches as much as as they throw them hard and towards large areas. So so I'm generally more pro splitter than he is. There's also the risk of injury that people talk about with splitters, because if you actually hold a ball, if you really widen your fingers like this, you'll feel your flexor tendon. If you just feel by your,

at the bottom of your elbow, you'll feel there's a tendon actually that you can maybe see it. Sometimes it acts good. And the flexor tendon is part of a group of lig of, of, of ligaments and tendons that, that, um, protect your, that protect your UCL. So the, the idea is that if you do that too much, you're activating a muscle that would otherwise be protecting UCL. I don't know if I believe that it makes a little bit of sense intuitively, but I don't

think it's been really proven. There has been, of course, a link between high velo and stress on the elbow. That is directly proven. And so watching him last night, Roki Sasaki in your fantasy league for four years, you may have to wait through a TJ or something. I mean, I'm not predicting that. I'm just saying throwing that hard is stressful on your arm.

That was one of the first comments I saw because, you know, I put a tweet out about the fastball and the splitter and having to wait on him. And one of the first things was he's going to it's going to be really great once you can get him post Tommy John, because like I don't necessarily disagree watching him. His total arm action is it's not violent at all. It's just there's a lot of like things that are going on with it that don't seem you can repeat it but it seems like oh you're putting a little bit extra stress on the arm in general plus you're throwing 102 plus you got a splitter which you're talking about might be a little bit more prone to injury all those things kind of don't feel great long term but he's a 21 year old kid maybe it never happens maybe if it does it happens early that's the selfish way we could all look at it before he gets to the majors

but yeah on camera i have a baseball. I was trying to do it. Yeah, the splitter doesn't really feel good. I don't know how I'm supposed to know how these guys can do it. Some guys don't even have the hands for it. I mean, that's what Alex Cobb was telling me. He was teaching his pitch to everybody and some guys just didn't have the hands for it. But, you know, also, you know, some more news about tonight. You know, also, you know, some more news about tonight. Shoto Imanaga is actually starting tonight, and that was a relevation from our first show this week that he led the WBC in Stuff Plus when I ran that stat.

That's not the full sample of everybody, but it's still an eye-opener, and the fact that they chose him over you darvish another eye-opener and then the bonus was from a monday show 29 years old uh and i believe from checking his contract status a lot of it was in japanese some of it was translated for me i believe he's been signing like one year deals and if that is the case we could see shoto and monica next year apologies for acting like i had stumbled upon yoshinobu yamamoto he's a known entity in your your open universe team leagues he's probably gone um he is in mine uh he's going to post next year i think

he will immediately become a top 50 pitcher just as as I had Kodai Senga this year. So that's not a big gem for you. But in my apologies for Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a reaffirmation that Shota Imanaga could come as close as next year because he's 29 years old. And that he could be the kind of sneaky good acquisition. And he is probably actually available in your Open Universe League. So still got you something good there. And there's going to be some fun tonight because Imanaga is on this list. It's a little bit of a nod towards how Stuff Plus says that shapes can be as important as velo.

Because Imanaga does not throw 100 like Sasaki. He's a much more modest velo because Imanaka does not throw a hundred like Sasaki you know he's he's a much more modest velo but it's just really good shape on the fastball and I think uh the secondaries uh you know really stand out so that could be a type of pitcher that uh that uh you know a good scouting team uh that's that knows everything about the rim or just watches tonight. He could pitch his way into an American contract tonight. That's a good point. And also, we might see them go him to Darvish to Otani. That might be the three-run we see tonight. They're being kind of cagey with the Otani availability.

If they want me, I'm available. But I don't know. There's something sort of cagey about his. I wonder if they're playing games a little bit of gamesmanship there and he's not actually available there's all these rules that we are not access to that come from their teams the angels can say otani can't pitch tonight and that might be done with last thing on sasaki real quick just looking at his numbers one thing i don't think i realized and it was probably because the different movement

that was going on with the splitter and how he was manipulating it like i said the first one i saw almost looked like a slider that bend out and he could just push it around and push the fastball but in that game he was theoretically a two-pitch pitcher he threw 40 uh where did it go here 45 percent fastball 47 percent slitter uh splitter which left a eight percent slider so essentially it's a couple of those 87 miles an hour uh didn't look like he had great command of it it didn't have an amazing shape but at 87 miles an hour it's probably a good slider too you know if he comes to america i wouldn't be surprised that they upped the slider usage a five he threw he did get two swings and one whiff on it

pretty crazy numbers as well he had 33 swings on his 64 pitches 12 of which were whiffs and uh whiff percentage of over 50 on both the splitter and the slider and the csw percentage of 43 on the splitter 30 uh 31 on the fastball just like absurd numbers across the board but it's really interesting to see him being like a two pitch pitcher electric stuff but repeating again we will not see him until 2027 because i cannot see a scenario even though like because they would post them for money so maybe six or five maybe they feel like they get more money if they post them in six or five well but he's not eligible to break the rookie restrictions see that's the problem is like i even heard the broadcasters trying to push like we got to find a way to get

him over here the only way to get him over is to change the rules because if you're under 25 you are eligible to the international restrictions and you just can't imagine a guy like this especially their teams would allow him knowing the money they are going to get back by posting it's crazy it's just it's a it's a false restriction on i mean if you're a prospect in the minor leagues you're 24 years old you're barely a prospect man you know what i mean like if you're still in the minor leagues you know there's some guys that that have that designation. But I would I would change that rule. Make it 23. 21.

It should be 21 and up. You're open. Because also on the international side, how many guys do we see that are under or that are over 21 even sign big international deals? We don't. That's the whole. Right. The whole idea. The whole idea behind the Astros pitching staff is that those guys were old,

and they did sign at 21, but they got $5,000 and $10,000. You know, Javier, your Keeley, you know, Frambois. They got small bonuses because they were too old, and they were too old at like 19, 20, 21. Yeah, Oscar Colas, same thing, waited out, but it's still, I think it was under 21. Luis Morales just signed with the Oakland A's. He's probably the oldest guy

in this international class that just signed out of Cuba, 20 years old. So I don't know why we don't have a 21-year-old deal and above, and that would help, that would kind of bridge that gap

for international guys. It must be Japan. It must be Japan. It's got to be something. It's the only place, the only place, the only place where there are high dollar guys between 21 and 24 is Japan. And it's a,

you know, it's bad business for baseball. Like the best thing you could do is bring Roki Sasaki to the MLB right now. It'll be great for business for MPB. Maybe they lobbied baseball to change that number. There's a possibility. That's interesting. Okay. So a WBC USA, Japan tonight, we know who he knows kids have written for, beat baseball to change that number there's a possibility that's interesting okay so uh wbc

usa japan tonight we know who eno's kids have written for but the rest of us i'm rooting for monica just because i'm rooting for the stuff plus i mean i want to see it be good i have a team future on usa so i'm uh i'm definitely team usa for obvious if not for obvious reasons by the way i got a little skin in the game here. So I'm going for team USA for outside of it helps when you put a hall of famer after hall of famer

in the lineup. My God, Goldschmidt, Arenado, Betts, Trout, if only that pitching staff was

better, but Hey, uh, my local Merrill Kelly going to be doing the starting out there. I'm excited about

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Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. All right, let's get into Project Prospect here. And there's a lot of different ways we've been attacking prospects. We've been looking at them from the perspective of really interesting names for redraft. We've talked first-year player. We've done that. We're now in that bridge gap period where spring training has a week left.

AAA is going to start in about a week and a half. Double A and down is going to start in two weeks. The season's just about here. So teams have been sending guys down. And we've had some disappointments. We definitely a couple of disappointments on my side as well from a couple of players. So first up here, these are option prospects, but not counted out. So first up here, these are option prospects, but not counted out. And the idea behind this is, yes, they were optioned, but how far are they really going

to be away? And I'm going to start it off with the guy that I did bring up yesterday because the news was a little bit fresh. But Brandon Fott with my Arizona Diamondbacks. Brandon Fott had a 3-7-5 ERA, which was better than Ryan Nelson, better than Dre Jamison. He was the best of those starters. 15 strikeouts in 12 innings, and he had a one whip. It really wasn't even close. And I thought he was going to get that gig, Dre Jamison, maybe to the bullpen.

But the Arizona Diamondbacks option, Brandon Fott out. Dre Jamison is still in the hunt. This is a Nelson or Dre Jamison gig here. Dre Jameson is still in the hunt. It's, this is a Nelson or Dre Jameson gig here, but you know, I'm curious at how long do you think Brandon fought is really out for? I know we briefly talked about this yesterday and that like,

I don't think this is going to be for too long and how many struggles will the team really sit on, but he's option, but I just don't know if it's for too long. So talk to me about Brandon fought and overall what you thought about his spring. I don't remember. if it's for too long so talk to me about Brandon Fott and overall what you thought about his spring I don't remember maybe it was weeks and weeks ago you were kind of breaking down some of his stuff compared to Nelson and them but what do you think about Brandon Fott I think he's probably pretty close but I wonder how he's what's the you know what's

the you know I always what's the corresponding move you know because you've got you've got a roster you know and you and you don't teams for the most part don't want to lose anything off their roster any potential value they want to they want to sneak it in so a real easy way for FOT to come up is bum garner goes on a long-term IL, right? Because long-term IL, you open up basically a roster cycle. 60-day IL, you open up a roster spot on your 40-man roster. Boom, Fott is in, and he comes up, and that's an easy sort of, aha, that's the corresponding move. But what if Davies is just kind of poopy?

Do you just drop him? Do you move them to the bullpen? And then you have to drop somebody out of the bullpen. They're trying to, you know, put together a bullpen that can be competitive. You know, Justin Martinez needs a roster spot.

If he's going to be in this bullpen, he throws a hundred miles an hour and that's exciting. But you know, if you put him on the roster spot, you got to an hour and that's exciting but you know if you put him on the right spot you got to drop juris familia or you know somebody astro yeah no they do have a lot of names they brought in yeah so it's always about the corresponding move and i'm not i'm just not sure what it is yet and they don't want to give up on ryan nelson and i think his last start uh showed you that ryan nelson still has it in him. I know it was Colorado, but Colorado's lineup is improving.

And he got six strikeouts against one walk and four hits and four and two thirds. Like looked as good of a tune up as you could expect out of him. And so I I still think I know the doubt is creeping in, but I still think it's Nelson's job. And I just wonder what the corresponding move is for Fott. I mean, maybe Davies is so bad that he's easy to release. Or maybe Bum gets hurt in a way that we know exactly what's going to happen. So that's the use case. happen so that's that's the use case um but while you still have merrill kelly zach gallon bum garner davies and nelson and jameson i don't if they're all healthy i don't see how fought comes

up and just takes a job because it means they have to lose or they have to lose something off their roster they just have to release somebody okay so let me ask you then so you're rooting against kyle davies zach davies i think, yeah, it's very easy to do. And I can't imagine it's going to stay in the rotation super long, and I think he'd be a better bullpen arm. Let me ask you this then. Brandon Fott, most really statistically prolific pitcher last year, puts up 167 innings.

167 innings across two levels. 61 of those were in the PCL and some more than davies put up last year how much do the diamondbacks and brandon fought benefit from him pitching in the pcl when he's succeeding like if he is out there in the pcl and he is performing well again what benefit is it for them to keep him down if you have mediocre returns from Ryan Nelson and Davies? So I'm just curious that like you're making great points about the bullpen, everything like that. But what is the true benefit if he is your second or third best pitcher in your entire organization and he's killing it again? He's not learning anything down there.

And I guess at the end of the day, you're talking about the expense of another player is maybe you just option Ryan Nelson and you bring him up. I just wonder how long they'll really wait and how long do you think they would hold him down? If Ryan Nelson struggles, yeah, I guess that's easy. But then you might have Dre Jameson. So is that a pecking order? I mean, honestly, I'm actually looking a little bit at Madison Bumgarner's page right now because, know they've got this year and next year right so you open the season with him but let's say he's got a four he had a 488 era last year he was actually with 0.5 wins like a half a win in 158 innings that's really close to replacement level for a starting pitcher

you know what i mean like all pitchers replacement level is much lower than that of course but for a starting pitcher do you know that the the average fifth starter is like one and a half wins right and so what point point five he was a half a win so 2021, he was a win and a half. That's a fine fifth starter. But last year, he dropped his strikeout rate even further, and he had the second worst swing strike rate of his career. And he had

one of the worst home run rates of his career. So you add that all up, and it adds to barely being any good. But Fott could be better than bum garner this year would be better would be yeah and so you start so yeah so if he starts out if bum garner starts out and does the the same sort of thing um in in you know in this year well then it's not then you don't like you don't he doesn't have any trade value right he doesn't

have you're not like you'd have to actually attach a prospect to get rid of the money right yeah they'll brunson a royal trade right and so and i don't think they're in the in the in the um business of doing that uh so let me see here i'm looking what do you think is more important to them real quick what do you think is more important? They're going to stare at the financials or the analytics of like fifth starter versus, you know, replacement value. Is that more important or is it going to be the financials for,

you know, maybe anybody you've spoken with, with that? Well, I mean the, the financials here, what I'm saying is it's a sunk cost. You,

you owe Madison Bumgarner the money. And so it actually becomes more about the analytics of his value. Like, what do you think his value is so far this spring six and a third with two earned runs four strikeouts and four walks it's borderline man if he's gonna if he's gonna walk you know one for every strikeout then he's then they then you say well fought is better owe Bumgarner the money either way. And he's not going to take a demotion to the bullpen.

So no way. Vaya con Dios. Yeah. I agree with that, too. A lot of people have brought that up to me. And I'm like, there is no chance in hell that he would take a demotion to the bullpen. He would rather stay home. There's no way he ever goes.

He's projected for less than a half a win by most of the systems. He's projected to have a 4-9-5 ERA the systems so yeah so okay that's that's the use case for me bum garner they give bum garner the first few starts you know two through maybe the first month and if he's got a 49 era and you know he's striking out six per nine and walking four per nine. Why? You're not going to get any trade value out of him. You already own the money. Just say thank you for your services, man. May 1st, do you think, Brandon, Fott's up?

I mean, if Bumgarner's that bad, then, yeah. And then you've got, is Nelson that bad if he gets optioned? I think between those two, May 1st sounds reasonable. I think there's a really good path for him to be back and nfbc drafts since march 1st and draft champions he does have a 328 adp a high of 268 that's going to have fallen more just due to him being optioned but i think you should keep him on uh one of the better prospects that should pitch in the big leagues this year should have innings so yeah he should be yeah he should be drafted in draft champions christian incarnacion strand of course i come on here and talk about how i think he's gonna break camp he could and the reds go they just cut it right i think there was like an awkward

thing where we recorded and by the time that we published he said yeah well if people don't know too like uh i'm i'm usually a very timely person we are just in this space where we'll do the show i go out to a camp i come back and kind of finish up and you're 100 right and i was like i was like a old looney tunes cartoon i just wanted to make the cuts on it this is after incarnation strand hit 577 in spring four homers 13 rbis he had 15 hits in 26 at bats it's absurd what he did but it just clearly showed you there was nothing that he could do because he did it so they had made up their mind the bigger question though to me kind of sits at this is a guy that showed he was ready he dominated at you know a spring high level with the majors guys and this is a very

injury prone team and you hate to look at joey vato but joey vato coming back is perpetually injured and one injury christian and carnation strand is one injury away from being back on this roster i believe but he's optioned do you count him out for the rest of the year no i do not uh i think one of the reasons that he is down is because Spencer Steer is also having a good spring. And I think that this is a team that is trying to figure out who's here for the short term. Who can we pump up for trade value? Koff, Koff, Will Myers. Who's here for the long term?

I actually should maybe throw Jonathan India into that cough-cough, actually. Because they have a ton of second basemen. They keep drafting second basemen. Jonathan India is aware of the situation. And who's here for the long term? So I think they want to know, is Spencer Steer a starter and long-term utility guy? What is his natural position? And so Steer is making the team.

Kevin Newman is probably the best combination of offense and defense right now at shortstop, but he's a bit of a placeholder. So I expect him to lose his job at some point this season. Oh, God, it's so rude. I hope. Kevin Newman, don't listen to this podcast. And then something is going to open up i think in the outfield either they trade away will myers um you know after he re-establishes some value

nick salzell gets injured you know will benson um stewart fairchild jake fraley tj friedel they're going to sort through those guys right and. And I, I, when, when Farhan Zaidi took over the giants at the very beginning, they had this whole thing where they gave everybody like three weeks. They had, remember they had like Connor Joe, like that's how they found, that's how they found Mikey Stremski. They basically just did a waiver claim, tried the guy for three weeks in the major leagues. And if he didn't do anything in three weeks, I mean, they, that's how it was. That's why Connor

Joe was a giant for three weeks. And then he's ended up in other places. So, um, I don't know that the reds will move that fast, but, uh, I would expect that everybody from Fairchild Benson, Fraley and Friedel, everybody gets some burn and they kind of sort through those friedel and fraley i think are my favorites out of them uh but you could have friedel fraley and myers in that outfield and still have an opportunity for uh and kind of stand strand to come up so that's the soft places or the corner outfield first base dh third base if steer goes somewhere else so there's there's definitely opportunities i'm not. I can't pinpoint one person and be like, he's going to take this job. But there is enough softness in that outfield depth chart. And then Votto, could he be traded

in the last year of his deal to a contender? And then Encarnacion Strand comes up for first, that's also possible yeah and that's where i that's why i would not count him out uh number three on this list actually someone that you spoke to you have some anecdotal stuff was addison barger barger uh with the toronto blue jays who barge is really interesting he was out here in the afl had a phenomenal year last year it's pretty low in spring training or in afl but yeah ended up hitting 294 with a homer had 10 hits this spring and i think there was just some thought with people that he might be able to break camp uh sticking around for a little bit but he's been option barger was just sent down like a day or two ago but should we be counting him

out for the short term you know it's probably a bad pick but I took him in AL labor in my last reserve spot. I'm just a little bit excited about a guy that has fairly massive pull power. He's also just a poop brick house physically. That's one of the things that people just say, that dude is yoked. So he kind of gives off that impression that he has a major league body already. He's got some interesting fluctuating strikeout and walk rates, but I think that's what I asked him about. I said, your walk rates have generally improved a little bit with each level as you've gone up.

What's that about? And he's like, well, the umpires are improving you know and the pitchers have more command at every level and so you know there's just uh it's a little bit more obvious what to do and that that reminds me of what matt mervis said at the arizona fall league he said that sometimes he'll look at the lineup sheet tonight see who the umpire is, and know he has to swing. And I, in fact, told Barger that anecdote, and he laughed, and he said, yeah, that's about it. So I think he probably has a pretty good natural eye, and he wanted to establish his power and show everybody in the organization what his power is like. And the last bit that I have on him is that he wasn't necessarily untouchable, but he wasn't really available in trade talks

last year. So this is someone I think that internally the Blue Jays have circled. And I think with the sort of Whit Merrifield, Santiago Espinel situation at second, Espinel situation at second, that's where I think opportunity lies for Barger this year. Because Espinel is fine, but he's also a righty that has played better against lefties, which I mean, duh, that's how platoon switch work. But against righties, he's a 91 WRC plus, But against righties, he has a 91 WRC+. And his defense is okay. It's good, but it's not so standout. Anyway, long story short, I think that Espinel could be headed towards short side platoon slash utility duty.

And Whit Merrifield is just one of these players that he's 34 years old. He's declining ability at the plate. And he also plays the outfield. So there's a, there's a, there's a couple of situations there where maybe where Merrifield is needed in center where they have Kevin Kiermaier and Dalton Varshow,

you know, or, you know, and left where it's Varshow and Merrifield, you know, so like he, what if Merrifield is needed in the outfield? Espinal is playing to utility level.

Barger. Barger or Christian Encarnacion-Strand? Which would you rather take? Who comes up first? Yeah. I think that the pathway is clearer for Barger. Okay. That would be the bet.

But the team is also better. Man, i'm such a waffler you're waffling a little bit i'm waffling i'm waffling all right uh i'm gonna go with barger you know why because i think the reds have a lot more sorting to do they're gonna try all those guys and that might take time whereas the jays you know it might become really obvious quickly that they want espinal to be utility and merrifield in the outfield. It's interesting because I think the path is a lot clearer with the Reds right now. But to your point, they're experimenting with a lot of things. If he can crack that, if Arger can crack that with the Blue Jays, it really opens up. Another Blue Jay note just to throw out there, we've been talking about him recently.

Ricky Tiedemann was one of those players we were thinking could potentially break camp. He had had a little bit of an injury setback um but he recently i think it's in spring three innings four strikeouts but he continues to throw he's scheduled to throw a side session which will be his second after he was shut down with that shoulder soreness if people are wondering what's going on with him not you know this isn't like in the optioned area but this is just another piece all right one other guy well i did talk to him too um and i i don't know uh i don't know what's super interesting here but it is interesting generally that that velo um has has been good for him and he said that he actually gets more ride he has this one of these weird uh arm slots where he's out to the side but he gets decent ride which is why stuff Stuff Plus loves him, why people love him.

And he said that he actually, with more velo, comes more ride. So that could be, you could read that either way. I mean, what if he loses some velo? Does he lose ride and become much less interesting overall? The Blue Jays do not have a great track record with creating Velo with their, with their younger guys. Tiedemann is the one standout there. So I don't know. I am excited about him though, because in terms of stuff,

plus that sort of low arm slot with ride is something that really befuddles hitters. And that could be, he could be a really exciting guy that hits the ground running and the blue jays obviously need him nate pearson is going to be a two inning guy this year um and so nate pearson shouldn't necessarily be on that starting pitcher depth charts what you've got behind you say kikuchi who has shown zero command of his fastball this spring uh from my and from the numbers uh behind him you got mitch white who is i think a high floor but low ceiling type pitcher and then you've got ricky teeteman so until ryu

is healthy uh if there's any injury uh plus kikuchi uh regression uh teeteman could be up pretty quickly be interesting too i think r think Ryu said July is the time. It'd be fascinating to see Pearson and Tiedemann do kind of like a piggyback together and become one starter. You two become one starter. Maybe Pearson pitches the first two innings as an opener and then Tiedemann comes in and pitches the next five or whatnot.

And then you put it over to the bullpen. Interesting experiment if they do it, but he's got to get past the shoulder soreness um which is you know a death sentence sometimes or at least it's a big uh hold our breath moment for starting pitchers exactly um the other last one in the option but not counted out and then we got some camp surprises we're going to burn through was kyle manzardo um i don't know how much i felt like the fantasy community had really pushed manzardo up more but he had a really good spring hit 333 two homers nine rbi in 27 at bats we never saw it come to but he told me um about a couple months ago or whatever it was that they had also asked him to pick up a

third base glove which told me he was never going to break camp and this is never going to be a thing but i haven't seen him do it and i don't know if he did it on any backfields i'd be very curious to see if he does it in the spring um option but not counted out is cal manzardo a better option than in carnation strand and barger or is he the furthest away from this group that was just recently optioned i think he's the furthest away i mean all this stuff that we talked about with uh you know controlling a roster and you know not losing anything off the roster the rays are like hyper focused on that you know they do not want to lose any source of value off their prospect they they probably agonize over every release for they've seen it coming for 14 months you know what i mean like they've got a guy

circled on this roster they don't want to release that they're afraid of releasing that they don't want to release until they really really have to i don't know who it is but they're trying so hard if it maybe it's vidal brujan right and they're going to give vidal brujan as many chances they can before they give up that roster spot and give up that potential because they would hate to see Vidal Brujan get picked up by someone. It's just an example. But for example, Luke Raley

is making this Rays team because he's out of options. Not necessarily because Kyle Manzato was worse than him. And so once you have Raley on that roster, if R if really who was having a pretty good spring if really just shows his worth then they're going to say we we've created some value we have a guy on our roster that we now control for so many years and oh he plays first base and oh monzardo plays there so oh well get that third base glove manzardo and yeah and show your show your ability

to move around the dime so um yes there are some uh like vidal brujan has not really shown the power that we requires to be an everyday regular i think and uh everyone talks about jonathan aranda's uh bricks for gloves. Paredes himself does not have a sterling defensive reputation. So there are ways that this can sort out, but it's not like Manzardo is going to play better defense at third than Paredes. Right? I doubt it.

No, no, no, I don't, I don't, I don't, I mean, Manzardo is better athletically than people are giving him credit for. Like he said,

he told me that they wanted to really draft him as a second baseman. And they're like, but we'll have to see how it goes. Him. Manzardo himself said that he didn't think it was going to become anything. Not that he couldn't do it. He just didn't think it would become anything. But i also think it shows more of the long-term plan he did succeed again and he did keep rolling which was a really good spring and there's probably an

opening at dh because harold okay harold ramirez is probably actually the guy they have circled oh okay that's interesting and man's artist that is up yeah it does it does harold ramirez is the guy and because harold Ramirez is the guy. And because Harold Ramirez is the guy they claimed. And so Ramirez had like a bit of a resurgence with the Rays where, you know, he had his best season with them. He'd been below average with the bat and below average defensively with everybody else. He'd been replacement, below replacement until he got to Tampa. And in Tampa, it was almost all Babbitt fueled. I'm sure if I really poke onto the hood, I can see some sort of selection difference or

oh, he hit more line drives, but line drives are not very sticky year to year. He pulled more balls. Maybe they gave him the same approach they gave Perez where they said, just look at high and tight and pull those balls and you'll do much much better he's a borderline guy i mean he was a one win guy last year and he's projected for less than a win this year and one win guys don't keep commons art is down so if how ramirez is struggling i could see monzardo coming up but i also just think they slow play guys just remember how they slow played nateowe forever. Yeah, yeah, exactly. That's exactly right now.

Option playing in spring is a little indifferent. So don't get like caught up on this because this next section is just about guys that are still in camp. But know that any given day they can, you know, call a guy up to play in the spring training game and stuff like that. And that happens from time to time. But these are some real big surprises in camp that have been hanging around, getting a lot of playing time. First up was Gavin Stone, who pitched the other day, and he looked phenomenal. Change-up was on point.

I believe he had eight strikeouts in three innings pitched so far. He has 14 strikeouts in six and two-thirds inning pitch so far. No runs in a one whip. He has maybe had the best pitching spring of anybody and he kind of has been an afterthought because he's a Dodger and how much room do they actually have with anybody because they also have a guy in Bobby Miller and he's still hanging around and he just, like I said, pitched three innings in a game. I believe it was yesterday as we're recording this. So hanging around Gavin Stone, what do we have out of

Gavin Stone right now for you? Yeah, I think the WBC is throwing a wrench into some of these names that we're going to talk about. Maybe just because Julio Urias is out of town for the WBC or was. Maybe just because Tony Gonsolin's got the ankle injury. Maybe that's the only reason why Gavin Stone is around. But I enjoy this because I think it shows something

that I believe, which is i have gavin stone ahead of michael grove and bobby miller and i like him better than ryan pepio too so i don't know if i have him ahead of pepio um because pepio has been working on changing his pitching mix to improve his command and that is a way you can improve your command um you know so i could see peppeo still being the number six starter, but I think for me personally, Gavin Stone is the seventh starter, and he has as much upside, maybe more than any of Pepeo, Grove, and Bobby Miller. So I'm glad that he's been shoving.

I think that this is proving sort of what my bias is that, that he's the best of the four. Yeah. And he seems like, I mean, also, I mean, just the way that that change up was dipping,

that he was complimenting with the fastball is actually trying to pull up. See if I could find it real quick. Yeah. I mean, the change up look like absolutely on point. What are those spring starts that you go back to? And I think it's a splitter, but yeah,

I mean, whatever, same thing. Yeah. And I think they were just calling it that, but an interesting thing too, as I saw multiple people, there's this big uptrend in,

in Twitter yesterday about like who the next Spencer Strider was. And people were throwing out names. Brandon fought with someone that got thrown out, but Gavin stone was one. I mean, it's kind of green. Oh, that's interesting. Well well i think what they were

talking about though was the you're talking about fastball slider to 50 50 and no they're talking about obscurity of like a guy that you can't quite know where they were yeah and then just explodes on the scene i think it was scott white at cvs was kind of um anointing maybe it was uh gavin stone was out there i thought that was an interesting context because i don't know if stone like spencer strider definitely was a little bit more of like was he going to be a reliever and i don't know that guys like gavin son of brandon fought or pepeo could do that pepeo pepeo is a good one that's a really good one because he actually everyone says he should be a reliever but if if this command improvement sticks he could definitely be a starter and he has he has good stuff so okay uh bryce miller is another one who i am obviously just a huge huge fan of bryce miller mariner right mariner two era nine strikeouts and nine innings he's the guy i

talked to in very early spring that said he adjusted his slider into two parts where he now throws two sliders one's a sweeper one's a gyro oh it's it's sweeping the nation the trend that's sweeping the nation that's what drew rasmussen is doing it's yeah yeah and that's what he said that was how what he said to me is uh because i said because he had just struck out tom murphy and and i was like that's a crazy slider he's like it's actually throwing two now and he said that was the trend he said it's actually what a lot of guys are doing right now and And that was his adjustment. And I told you,

it gives you something you can command against opposite handed guys. The sweeper gives you something that you can get same handed guys out. What was interesting though. And I mentioned this a couple of weeks back. So apologies. Anyone hearing it was, he told me the opposite is he felt he could command his sweeper and he didn't have the command of the gyro yet.

So I thought that was really fascinating. That's interesting. Cause the, the, the generally you would say you can't move you can't command the pitch with uh more movement and you can command the pitch with less movement that's just a general thing they're interviewed about him and they sky service essentially acknowledge he's a starting pitcher like this is his role he they don't see him in the bullpen because they believe his stuff they're very impressed his stuff is a starting pitcher a little bit of an older guy the question is is like where is their room in this rotation and how can he get there but he's you know he's still kicking around and there's still this little thought process that he could break camp so any thoughts on

brace miller oh really there's some thought i mean he's still around that is interesting i i i guess i'm i'm circling marco gonzalez's name how what are his numbers this spring oh oh marco gonzalez was worth 0.1 war last year is that a guy you put in you know that you know that oof jiff yeah yeah yeah yeah the oof is like a soccer coach or something yeah that's actually one of that's like a top five of all of them yeah that's what this was okay so so what team gives up on their their point their uh fractional uh replacement level pitcher first diamondbacks madison or mariners with marco mariners because they have to win this year Also They have a club option

I doubt they're actually Going to do that What Marco? Yeah But 7.5 million is not a lot But I think you could convert Marco To a 6th starter Who's on the roster

That can come in I don't think it's going to happen right away i think you break camp with marco gonzalez is your five and if there's an injury maybe miller hops up against uh up on top of flexin flexin stuff played up in the bullpen and i think he actually could be their next eric swanson And so, you know, you've got how many good starting pitchers, like how many mediocre, bad starting pitchers that were young that converted over to relief became great. You know, it's like, I think that's the similarity for me

for Swanson and Flexon. And so, if he hops over Flexon, he's the number six starter. Probably, yeah, he's probably ahead of Emerson Hancock because he's the number six starter probably probably yeah he's probably ahead of emerson hancock because he's still in camp so there's no doubt i think they hold him in camp until they break camp if there's no injuries mark gonzalez is number five if mark gonzalez pitches more like he did last year and less like his one win projection uh which comes from the bat and it's the only one that's over one win. If he pitches to that number,

then maybe they keep him. If he pitches much worse, it is weird. Maybe war is not capturing something with him because Marco Gonzalez has basically had a four ERA now for five straight years.

He went in those five years from being a three war pitcher to being a zero war pitcher so that's an interesting thing where you're just looking at the war and looking at the era and something is amiss but i wonder if there's someone else like that that sounds like it sounds like something your smart brain would be able to make a great i mean just looking i can see that like he's been giving up more homers, but less balls in play. And so the projection system see that and say, well,

the balls in play are going to be, you know, go to 300 and the, and the homers are going to stay high. So that's, that's why basically nobody, no projection system likes them. But if he's,

if he's figured out something where he can have like a two 50, two 60 Babbitt and, and one and a half homers for nine then he might have a four era again uh one other note on bryce miller 2021 he pitched nine innings this past year they pushed him to 133 innings he pitched across three levels he did only get to double a which is something to consider with them pushing but i do believe he is i bet you he spends a month uh pitching three and four innings you know uh spends the first month of the season pitching like three or four innings to start and then then has a five inning start like

first week of may and he's up in may that would be interesting be on the lookout for that one last guy on this and then i'm just to throw a couple little burners at you uh you and i were talking about this off air ben joyce with a lot of the angels ben joyce is fascinating if you guys have paid attention to him he was drafted in last year's draft class he would be a first year uh an fypd if you will five innings pitched six strikeouts no earned runs given up and he's famously known as the guy that hit 104 at tennessee last year and the angels overall are really weird with what they've been doing but this is a guy that is still sitting in camp is a relief only arm who is probably one of the biggest power fastballs in baseball has had a fantastic spring has been joyce break camp with the angels yes boom yes is he the closer closer let's go next

level is he the closer you know no not right away i mean you're asking a lot of a guy who just has a handful of double a innings um to just step in and take a job from a guy they signed to be the closer gave him major league money um but i do think by the end of the season choice could be the closer one thing that i don't know uh off offhand we're thinking about altitude adjusting stuff plus because altitude altitude changes the shape of pitches and so estevez could have had a better stuff plus uh than he did and so you know when we look at um something like my pitcher ranks and the and the projections that we got through stuff you know through stuff plus so ppera time we look at estevez through that lens it says a 428 era but what if his stuff plus number has been affected by

altitude and is not the correct number uh because this says 104 what if he's actually a 108 guy or 110 that would get that era under four either way we might be talking about oh he actually should have a 39 era projection that seems gettable so i've been looking for somebody in this bullpen that i could an early drafts i had zach weiss who had the best stuff plus in the bullpen that I could, in early drafts, I had Zach Weiss, who had the best stuff for us in the bullpen last year. He's still a possibility. I don't think Aaron Loop, the lefty, or Quijada. I don't think either of those guys really have the closer stuff

that I'm looking for. Ben Joyce has it. So I'm going to put him ahead of Zach Weiss as the number one sleeper in this bullpen. And I think he makes the team because this team is, you know, it's all hands on deck time. And you had a little nugget about some other player in their minor league system. But just let me put it this way. And then you've got supporting evidence that's even better than Ben Joyce.

This team needs to win. And then you've got supporting evidence that's even better than Ben Joyce. This team needs to win. Mike Trout may hit 60 homers this year because he says, I need to convince Shohei Otani to stay here. So Mike Trout may have an amazing season. And if Mike Trout feels that way, then you know his general manager feels that way where he's like, if you are shoving in camp, I need you. And that's probably goes up and down the organization. So what was the example you

have? Well, the one was Zach Netto, Nito, however you want to say I'd say Netto was their number one draft pick in this class, and they pushed him straight to double A, they went to double A, like out of all of the shoot and over on the backfields he's already with the triple a team he played against the triple a diamondbacks they need a short stop his bat is live and they are already pushing him so if you're going to start out the year at triple a there's something about the angels development that hasn't been working and they might just be pushing these guys these are two guys out of this draft class that are ready to go they're both college uh you know college arm college bat that are in there but why waste them if you were trying to convince otani to stay or

you're trying to win this year yeah get your guys there so i think ben joyce is a really fascinating one and be on the lookout for him because he has not left um just throwing out some other guys were uh heston kerstad who i really like hitting 400 for homers so far in spring why do you still out there in camp uh i think it's at bats i think mainly he missed so much time but and they just want to see him against top of bats at the top i mean they that's why they had him in the fall league i mean he he really stood out in the fall league didn't he wasn't the runner up in the in the in the home run derby yeah and he won the mvp of the afl as well yeah i mean he was he looked amazing down there and they're working him at first in spring as well so they're getting him some more flexibility but yeah it is interesting because yeah they're not

um they don't have guys i don't think missing a whole bunch of santander but like outside of that who's missing from them and he's still sitting around he just hit a homer i think yesterday so cursed they're actually gonna start getting crowded dude i mean they already are maybe they're gonna trade santander or hayes because their styles stowers and cows are already colton cows are already coming up after them and then you want to probably play kirsten in the outfield unless they're going to trade mountcastle i wonder if they will trade a bat soon well getting him get um there seems to be a bat they're keeping it loaded dude buy orioles futures oh absolutely westberg norby um i mean obviously gunner is out there the pitching they they are

i like gunner better than some people on the i think gunner did everything you asked from him and i i think he could be a shortstop. But is Westbrook a better defensive shortstop? I think a little bit. They have Joey Ortiz, too. Yeah, he played with Justin Foscue, and yeah, I think they view him as a little bit better. But that infield could be Norby, Westbrook.

They've also just had a great draft class. Judd Fabian, they picked up. Dylan Beavers at Oregon State. Baltimore Fugitives are looking very, very good. Two other hitters, Zach Veen still around in Camp 271. He has now eight stolen bases. I know you don't like him as much. I thought that was a pre-ProFar thing.

I think that's another one that ProFar just shot in the foot. Yep, 100%. And I briefly brought him up. Justin Durden with the astros we were talking about hensley at second base but justin durden a little bit of an older guy at triple a is still sitting around there and with like brantley maybe going on il stint or whatever uh 350 two homers a stolen base and a 7 for 20 in camp and might be a sneaky guy that is going to break camp with this team someone that no one's looking at but he is still floating around and i'm trying to think of who they're missing right now i just don't know who this is his make or break year two he's rule

five eligible this december yeah i think it's 26 i think 25 or 26 so this is like you know are you quiet this very christian walker to me ish like a very older guy who's been sitting around who needs to make that push. And he's going to get an opportunity. That might be a very, very, they're going to use all three of his options this year is my, my prediction. He's going to be a guy who's up and down. He'll be the only virus.

Last thing was, I just thought this was interesting. Jackson Merrill, who I believe was just sent down, had eight hits in spring. Bob Melvin said that he's going to be a quick mover. He said, where? Here at what point in time? I don't know. We got a lot of guys covering the infield positions. But when you're that good, you find a way.

So I expect him to really be a quick mover. A lot of people have him circled as a big mover on prospect list. Had he already moved on prospect list? Yeah, he'd made a quick move a lot of people have him circled as a big mover on prospect list had he already moved on prospect list yeah he'd made a big move this off so he was the youngest guy in the afl he looked phenomenal i mean uh i have a show my prospect one show i just did bold predictions someone came on i'm trying to remember who well i think it was uh it might have been james anderson said that he'll be the number one prospect by seasons and in baseball would be jackson merrill uh so that's a big one. Jackson Merrill moving up, but he might not make it

because there might be major league time coming. So, you know, that is project prospect talking all the guys, lots of stuff, and it's going to get even more interesting as the season goes on. Make sure you guys check us out over at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels so you can sign up,

get access to everything that they've got going on, get in on the app, get in on the app, get in on the articles, get in on the rankings and the draft kit. So you can prep for this final weekend because you know, you have a, is it a main event on Sunday? I'm not going to say.

Oh, okay. It's there's a draft. I don't know when it's happening. There are drafts. There's big drafts that are coming up that maybe we'll have a co-owner. So you can't find me. Okay, good. We don't know. We don't know when it's happening. There are drafts. There's big drafts that are coming up that maybe we'll have a co-owner. So you can't find me. Okay,

good. We don't know. We don't know when it'll be. There's one that's happening. So big drafts, but make sure you're prepped. You know, doesn't need to be because he's doing the draft prep.

So that's going to do it. Find me on Twitter. Is it the Welsh? Find, you know, at, you know, Sarah's and we'll talk to you next time right here on racing barrels.

My friends. Thanks for listening