Rates & Barrels - Promotions, Roster Expansion & The Julio Rodríguez Megadeal

Episode Date: September 1, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss several recently promoted players in the wake of September roster expansion including Gunnar Henderson, Spencer Steer, Garrett Mitchell, Hunter Brown, and Ken Waldichuk -- plus a few second-half pitchers competing for long-term opportunities with their respective clubs.  Rundown 2:02 Gunnar Henderson is Up! 8:33 Spencer Steer's Late-Season Opportunity 16:55 Nick Senzel's 2023 Role? 19:58 Spencer Torkelson, Round 2 22:59 Miguel Vargas Returns 27:17 Michael Toglia's Regular Run 33:57 Hunter Brown's Promotion in Houston 37:31 Ken Waldichuk Debuts 46:03 Brayan Bello, Cade Cavalli & Javier Assad 54:54 Julio Rodríguez's Long-Term Deal with the Mariners Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe for $1/mo for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Thursday, September 1st, September call-ups edition of the podcast. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we'll discuss roster expansion. There have been some very interesting prospects brought up as rosters are expanding today. Might even get a few breaking news style promotions along the way. It's everybody's favorite. We've got a few new-ish pitchers that we're going to talk about assessing their roles, what they've shown in limited action so far.

It also occurred to me that we did not discuss the mega deal that Julio Rodriguez signed with the Mariners late last week. So we'll get to that on this episode. We get some mailbag questions as well and lots to cover. So a good episode lined up here on this Thursday. You know, the notable promotions, Gunnar Henderson probably right up near the top of that list. It's not just roster expansion. It's as we've talked about before.

It's the new rules for draft pick compensation going to teams for players winning the Rookie of the Year award and getting past a service time threshold to no longer be eligible for that award. And then on top of that, as Matt Eddy pointed out, Matt Eddy of Baseball America, teams also need to make sure that players don't accrue too many at-bats or players don't accrue too many at-bats to become ineligible for the award as well. So that might control the amount of exposure that Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll receive against lefties, which is really an extra wrinkle. I guess in the case of Henderson, the Orioles are trying to get in the playoffs,

so they're playing matchups a little more closely anyway. And in the case of Carroll, they'll just give him the occasional day off, which they've already done against one lefty so far. But all of this is still, to me, a step in the right direction. We're seeing more players getting opportunities later in the year than we have in seasons past. And that seems like a good thing, even if it's not perfect. It's better than it was. Let's start with Henderson. What are you expecting from Henderson from the jump

now that he's up with the Orioles? I love the debut with the homer and the dropped helmet and the flowing locks as he rounds the bases as he rounds the bases um i i think the power is real i think the patience is real i think there's a pretty large question about what the strikeout rate will be so interesting uh that uh he didn't strike out in his first uh in his first game but i think that he will eventually and you And the way that things are now, it's not like he's going to get to the big leagues and everyone's not going to have a book on him.

There's Trackman in the minor leagues. The teams all have heat maps on him. So it is one good game. I would expect that he will be attacked pretty ruthlessly according to his cold zones pretty quickly. So I'm going to be watching that strikeout rate. I think lightning in a bottle means you've got to pick him up. You've got to give him a try.

I don't know how good he will be immediately because he struck out 26% of the time in AAA. That's not nothing. He could strike out 30% in the major leagues. I was talking about this with Al Melchior earlier in the day on Thursday, and you can listen to the Athletic Fantasy Baseball podcast to get the full version of the conversation, but one thing that really surprised me about this year is Bobby Witt Jr.'s strikeout rate didn't jump the way I expected it to.

Part of my aversion to Witt where he was going during draft season was the concern that the K rate was going to jump to the high 20, maybe even the low 30% range just initially. of the high 20, maybe even the low 30% range, just initially. Eventually, it would come back down, but he's actually struck out a little bit less this year as a big leaguer than he did in a half season's worth of plate appearances at AAA Omaha last season. The walk rate's down, but we'll certainly accept something like that. And I guess all this has led me to is wondering if we have even a decent handle on how much a hitter's strikeout rate is really going to change from the upper levels of the minors to the big leagues because as we've thought about in this podcast for several years probably going back to the confusion around

Keston Hira his minor league strikeout rates being good, his big league strikeout rate being very problematic. There are many different paths to a good or bad strikeout rate. And I think there are certain ways you can strike out in the minors that maybe are less of a concern in the big leagues. It's a question of whether you can hit certain types of pitches. And I feel like it's hard on the outside looking in to know that. But I think you're hitting the nail on the head in that big league teams do have a scouting report. They know where the holes are. And we will get a better sense for whether those holes can be consistently exploited sooner rather than later. And I guess all this is to say I'm just decreasingly confident in being able to project a K rate for a hitter based on upper level minor league track record. And I feel like that's the

wrong direction to be going as I get older. Yeah. I mean, the one thing I would say is that AAA strikeout rates translate the best to the major leagues. I don't know if it's because you have a lot of veteran pitchers in AAA, veterans with large arsenals and command of secondary pitches that are waiting for their chance to get back to the majors. I don't know if it's just because of the natural progression of things. But if you look, for example, at the Bat-X,

progression of things but if you look for example at the bat x uh you know the projected strikeout rate for gunner henderson is 27.9 off of 26.4 so that's fairly close you know and i wonder what i wonder how different it would be if we did not have that triple a line he had an 18 strikeout rate in double a it might still be 24 25 26 because of how well double a stats translate over so you know you still see the 30 and high a the 29 in low a um and you just wonder um you know there's a progression here. He's getting better, but there's still strikeouts there. So I just wouldn't depend on him for batting average. But the nice thing about calling him up at the end of the year is that your batting average is set.

So if he comes up and hits a bunch of homers, steals his bases, and ends up with an O'Neal cruise line, you'd still be pretty happy that you got those extra homers and stolen bases. I have a personal situation here with Gunther Henderson where I had one share in a situation where it was six keepers and four free minor league keepers. And I'm in third place and wanted to win the league a second year in a row. And so I traded Gunnar Henderson away for, I don't even know, you know, things I needed, you know, just some pitchers. And I think Tyler Rogers was in the package, you know, like package. Just some, I needed holds and I thought maybe he'd right the ship

and be a good holds guy. So I will regret it if he turns into a star. Especially since right now I'm just jumping between third and second and I don't think I'm going to win it. That is, that's rough. It looks like Gunnar Henderson's going to be very good. Yeah, the flip side of flags fly forever is what if you make that trade and don't win the flag? Perpetual FOMO.

A couple other players that have been promoted in the last 48 hours or so. Spencer Steer, who the Reds received from the Twins as part of the Tyler Molle trade at the deadline. He is up, and I saw that C. Trent, Trent Rosecrans, covers the Reds for the Athletic, pointed out on Twitter that Steer has played all four infield positions and right field already in the brief time that he's been at AAA Louisville. I do think the Reds have this unique and fun problem with so many players that are currently second or shortstops and third basemen that they're going to have to move guys around and figure things out sort of quickly because a lot of these guys have overlapping timetables. Steer's already 24 years old, third round pick back in 2019, so it makes sense to give him a late season look.

The numbers in the minors this year have been solid, 15 home runs between the two AAA teams and I think another eight at AA this season. So the power's good. There's a little bit of speed there. I guess it's just going to be a question of how quickly he can adjust, but the Reds don't have enough players

to really block him. I don't think you're looking at Stier as someone that you're thinking about as a rookie of the year candidate next year. I think this could be a max playing time volume situation for him over these final five weeks of the season. It's an audition, right? I mean, it's an audition, right? I find it difficult a little bit to parse that thing where they've played all over in modern baseball.

Think about, like, in the past, you know, five years ago maybe, if you told me this guy's played all over, I'd be like, oh, God. He's not a shortstop, right? He's not a shortstop right he's not a shortstop he's a utility guy he's gonna be second base he's gonna do this he's gonna he's gonna end up in the outfield he's gonna be third third baseman he's not a shortstop he's played all over he's not a shortstop however you know i know that there are teams that uh just have this mandate now in the minor leagues for everyone to play everywhere. Joey Part, play first, play outfield. Yeah, you're still going to make it as a catcher if you make it, but we want you to be able to play all over.

And that's something that everybody coming up through the Giants organization is doing, is playing all over. So it could just be part of that sort of a mandate to just be comfortable playing all over. Maybe that also helps with shifts later. So it could just be part of that sort of a mandate to just be comfortable playing all over. Maybe that also helps with shifts later. If you're comfortable playing second base, maybe we can play you in a different part of the shift than normal or whatever. I would say that the Reds, despite what you're saying about having a lot of infielders, the biggest need is shortstop.

So if I was them, I would stick him in at shortstop for the rest of the season and see what I have. The problem is you have Jose Barrera. So what's going to happen there, you think? Play them both? Move them both around? Base it on who else is in and out of the lineup? I mean, they're both righties moose

plays first india plays second yeah moose plays first because there's not that much value out of you know i don't know maybe moose doesn't play but there's not that much value about you're not you're not trying to figure out who's gonna play first base for them next year right right so just stick moose there and don't worry about it india seems like he's stuck he's the guy at second so you're trying to find a short stop in the third basement so i guess you just maybe you just take borrero and you take steer and you just alternate them to be short and third because you just need them you need to get looks you need to get that data at both positions yeah yeah make sure you pick the right option of the two at least in the short term but then understand if one of them is the longterm solution that you've,

you've exhausted the, the options for both players. I guess the other way you could look at it as righties with a couple of lefties in the corners right now, TJ Friedel and Jake Fraley, if you, if you've decided you don't want those guys to play against lefties, then you could put one of them in a corner outfield spot as a platoon partner and then just move the other infielder around accordingly around that and then keep playing Kyle Farmer a little bit.

But I think there's enough there's enough flexibility on the roster and enough thinned out by injuries and trades here where you can you could see it working in some capacity and i i would say i don't want to hold multi-position usage in the upper levels of the minor leagues against the player because i i think whereas in the past that might have meant he doesn't have a position he's good at necessarily now it's probably giving yourself options to just get a player out of the big league roster when you have a need having more than one choice potentially if you lose a second baseman or a third baseman or whatever it might be that your big league team loses it's easier to turn to your best all-round bat that's available if that player can competently play three different defensive positions yeah um i just sorry i was looking at Kyle Farmer's line

and it's very Isaiah Conner for Leffa. Very strange. I did not expect that out of Kyle Farmer. I don't know. I guess that sort of player is going to be valuable if the Reds are going to be good next year. So I guess you want to keep playing him

to keep him useful in that way. I guess I'm with you on that. You know, Steer could play left and Farmer can play third, most likely. Farmer is also 32 years old. Is he a free agent to be? No, he's not a free agent until after 2024. Yeah, so I think you're right.

I think it will play a little bit. I don't know why you would play Donovan Solano and Colin Moran. And this is actually something that's true here locally, is like, why is Jock Peterson still on the Giants? Why is Colin Moran and Donovan Solano still on the Reds? Even if you didn't... I guess it's rude to just cut a guy. But it's not that rude.

They could jump on with a contender. They could win a title. It's not rude. Colin Moran is not amazing, but maybe somebody gets hurt and the Dodgers last minute are like, gosh, you're better than, you know, Edwin Rios or whatever. Maybe, maybe not, but, you know, there's always that chance. And it's better than, you know, why are they running out Colin Moran

for the Reds when I guess they have another year of him if they want him. It just seems weird that Colin Moran and Don Zolano are still on the team. I would assume they don't play that much going forward. I think they can play the most. Because you want to play Chucky Robinson. You want to play Jose Barrero. You want to play Spencer Steer. You want to play Jake Fraley.

You want to play Nick Senzel. You want to play Aristides Aquino. You want to play those guys because you want some poop iris status akino you want to play those guys because you want to you want some pooping or getting off the potty yeah make a decision yeah and i think um of those ones uh i think you know i think fraley will emerge as a regular steer looks like he can emerge as a regular actually i mean i i you know it's a really good combination if you take you know it requires taking some of his better walk rates and some of his better strikeout rates and

some of his better power rates and put them together but if he does do all those things there's a special player in there so i you know even if he even if he falls short on one of the three um you know if he does the other two like if he has power and strikes out a bit too much but also has patience he's gonna be good right if he has contact and not that much patience and power he's gonna be good right so like he looks like he looks legit i'm i'm a little surprised that it's kind of on the radar for me but i would pick steer and fraley to kind of come out of this mess uh with the most playing time next year i don't i don't know about senzel what do you think i i think i'm a little bit i'm a little bit nervous the power seems totally gone

uh the defense is not rating well. The best thing is his contact ability, but the patience isn't really there. He's 30% under league average with the bat, and he's 24% for this career, and now we've got almost 1,000 plate appearances. Right. We're not getting

hard contact. We're not getting very good defense. We're not really getting anything that's going to drive playing time anymore so i i think at this point it's more of a give him a fresh start somewhere else and maybe i'm interested but if he stays in place i think the playing time is going to drop you know give give him a fresh start somewhere else and he's uh not in that field well he's going in that field. Well, he's going to play a different position for a lot of other teams, though.

The Reds' decision to move him to center field was part of a logjam that they had at the time that's not a problem quite the same way that it was back a few years ago. So, I don't know. Maybe put him in a different position and give him a fresh start with a new org, but it just seems like health has really

chipped away at the player we thought that Nick Senzel was going to be. I had high expectations for him this year because I thought the hard hit rate we saw in limited action last year was encouraging. I thought there was reason to believe, the plate skills especially, he could put something together, and it just hasn't worked out so far. The only thing that I have to add to this discussion, though, is that I'm not sure that the Reds have a center fielder.

Of all the things they have, yeah, that's maybe not necessarily there. Next year is Senzel, Fraley, fill in the blank and write. I mean, I'm not sure it's Aquino. I think, is the contract for Moustakas finally up? I think they got another year on that. I mean, the prospects, Elie De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noel V. Marte. Moustakas is the DH.

Yeah, those guys aren't ready. No, I'm just thinking like multi-years. Like, yeah, they're not ready now. I'm just saying next year. Next year, depth chart, Fraley in left, Senzel in center, fill in the blank in right. Like, I think they could sign somebody actually

um mustakis at dh vato back at first india uh barrero and steer and second inch and third with farmer as the super utility and robinson maybe robinson and um what's-his-face-behind-the-plate? Tyra Stevenson. Yeah. They're probably not going to be that good again, but if that depth chart holds, you've heard some major opportunity for three players in Steer, Barrero, and Fraley. It could be a little underpriced,

even though Fraley has done pretty well since the trade deadline with that extra playing time opening up. Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken loaded wraps and bowls today. Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for Sweet Chili Chicken. It's time for Tim's. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time.

You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Some other names that we should get to. Spencer Torkelson is back in the big leagues too for whatever that might be worth.

Plenty of redraft leagues in which Torkelson was dropped. So I guess given that we saw a pretty good decision making, it's just as far as the O-swing percentage goes, when Torkelson was up earlier this season, do you give him another look as a corner option in a 15-team redraft? We talked about some corner options, I think, in our last episode or two episodes ago. If Torkelson's out there this weekend, are you picking him up? Not in redraft leagues.

I think that the die has been cast for this year i think he needs a full off season uh of training and and some um some real changes in approach uh i don't think i've necessarily seen that um out of his triple a line he's exactly league average in triple a and you know, did not – I guess he pulled the ball a little bit more in AAA, so it's possible he comes up and pulls the ball more. I see someone who's stuck in between two things. He's stuck in between sort of fastballs and sliders. That's what the league contact is.

But I think he's also stuck in between having an opposite field approach that served him so well in the minors and with an old ball that I don't think is serving him well right now. So I think being aggressive, getting the ball out in front, making the most out of his power, and then adding patience to that is his best way forward i just don't see evidence uh that he's necessarily done that at any level this year long term uh there's still uh some i think there's still some uh some good things to hang your hat on the fact

that uh he does not chase balls much uh Has a decent max exit velocity. Those are two good things. Looks like a guy who could get on base. Looks like he has a good eye at the plate. I think a little bit about Austin Riley when I see this package. That's pretty exciting, given the way things have turned out for Riley. I'd rather that he went back to the AAA and blew up AAA and was coming back for this year.

But for the future, decent buy low. Yeah, it was about a 20 home run pace, low 20s home run pace for him during his time at AAA. I think the weirdest thing for me was the 26.5% K rate. To go down and not lower that K rate again back to where it was last year when he spent 40 games at that level. That was a little bit of a surprise, but still drawing his walks. And I think the other thing that's different about Torkelson, big league Torkelson versus minor league Spencer Torkelson, more balls on the ground during his time in the big leagues.

If he gets back to hitting the ball in the air a little more often, he'll probably unlock some of that power sooner rather than later. Still a lot to like. Good dynasty keeper league sort of by low if you had a chance to do that in the last month or so while he was toiling away at AAA Toledo. Miguel Vargas is back. I think we have a lot of the same questions

playing time-wise for him, right? It's not really a talent question. It's just more of a usage question. Yeah, I'm really excited about his combination of power and contact. I guess Joey Gallo has been playing well as a Dodger. If anybody didn't pay attention, he's been 19% better than the league average, still with a poor batting average, but some of the power has come back.

He's hit three homers with the Dodgers. And I think it's just about showing some faith in him and running him back out there and letting him play every day and not worrying about the batting average. But there is some softness to this depth chart when it comes to Gallo and Bellinger. Vargas doesn't play center, but it is a freewheeling roster, right?

uh but it is a freewheeling roster right so you could find some way to maybe dh turner play muncie play muncie in the field play lux in center sit bellinger bellinger is sitting against a righty on thursday so it's it's not just lefties he's sitting against anymore. But at the very least, I think they could find some configuration where Vargas plays against lefties. But if he wants to push somebody out, I think he has to push Gallo out of regular playing time, become the left fielder, and then Gallo, Taylor, and Bellinger share center.

Or Gallo's a backup and Taylor and Bellinger share center. Not impossible, but doesn't seem like the most likely outcome. So I think it's still a little more of a 2023 thing for me with Miguel Vargas. He could be good in a part-time role. Yeah, but even then, who is leaving this roster that will open up the opportunity for him? I think Justin Turner would be gone, right?

Turner is up? Yeah, I think Turner's contract runs out at the end of the season. He's going to be 38 in November. If they got him signed already, that's a huge mistake. He's got a vesting option. He didn't play enough this year to vest it though, right? Yeah, I don't know what it is.

Yeah, okay. There's a spot. Just take over for Justin Turner. Mario Candillo is Justin Turner. And Trey Turner is a free agent. Oh, yeah. So that could open up a lot of playing time. Not that the Dodgers aren't among the teams that could extend them and keep them,

but there could be a lot of playing time that opens up on the left side of that infield. What is that 433 plate appearances so far this season? Justin Turner, that is. Turner's 23 option can move from a clubbed option to a vesting option if he finishes in the top 15 of MVP voting in 2022. Yeah, that's not going to happen. Yeah, sorry. Okay.

All right, so we found Miguel Vargas playing time next year. If you're in one of those leagues, there could be sort of like 12-team leagues with minimal keepers where it might actually make sense even if like 12 team keeps six or something like could you keep miguel vargas in the back end of that maybe as your last keeper but the moves you'd make to get there would be consolidating some of your keepers you're giving up two for one in multiple trades to get higher end keepers and then saying that like four or five awesome keepers

and then you just fill in with vargas you really believe in vargas for next season if you're you're putting that out there it's hard to be actionable on some of these things right like mcgillivar is great yeah well everybody in the keeper league already has them you know i already rostered an nl only not gonna play enough for 15s it appears get a chance to see how they use them over the weekend you've outlined a path for it to possibly work we'll see if they if they put those wheels in motion here over the next four days before fab runs again michael taglia is up for the rock he seems to be playing like maybe every day i love that the players that have the greater skills question get to play more because it's in a situation where there's more playing time

available big k rates in the upper levels of the minor leagues but nice production plenty of power so what are you doing with taglia i am rostering him i'm picking him up i am playing him at home because the nice thing about colorado is it papers over strikeout rate problems by offering you a better batting average on balls in play. So I would assume that if his projection is for a 230 batting average with a 200 ISO that's sort of averaging his projections, I think at home he might be able to hit 250 now you got a guy who can hit 250 with power i want to play that guy at home on the road uh that might turn into 220 with the average power so he's a little bit of a streamer then for a lot of mid-sized mixed leagues shallow mixed leagues probably not going to do enough in the short term to make an impact.

I like a 15-team, like even an NFBC format. I'd like to have him on my bench so that I can play him for the weekend series in Colorado or play him for the first four days in Colorado and then sit him. I'm in places where I had Brett Beatty. Yeah. And if it gets deep enough, you want.

So I think Tugley and Steer are probably my favorite actionable items on this list because Gunnar Henderson, someone's going to use the hammer on him. You know, someone's going to have a waiver claim. They've been nursing through the season. Someone's going to have the most FAB, and it's not going to be me in either case. So I'm not going to get Gunnar Henderson anywhere. But Stier and Toglia seem...

And then maybe one more name for a team that you follow. Yeah, I think Garrett Mitchell is sneaky interesting in 15-te teamers and deeper. I think the platoon situation is likely to occur in center field because Mitchell's a lefty, Tyrone Taylor's a righty. is on the road in Chicago, so he'll just sit all week. But then the week after that, seven games all at home against the Giants and Padres. So two good weeks of usage and then one week where he's just clearly on your bench. So I think that does make

a streamer a little easier to use when it's not a broken up week, especially in non-NFBC situations where you have to commit for the whole week. So Garrett Mitchell runs well, plays good defense in center field, hasn't shown a lot of power in games.

I guess I'm going to throw it at you because I have the blue and yellow glasses on. How much of a hitter is Garrett Mitchell? Is he a good enough hitter to get on base and use his speed and be a nice late season source of steals because the steals are really what kind of jump off the page when you look back through his minor league track record it's a lot of of partial seasons a lot of 30 to 40 game stops at several levels he's been very efficient as a base stealer in the minors yeah i would see him as a guy you'd pick up for steals. I think there's a chance that the strikeout rate projections are too high if he made a skill change this year. Although

most of that is AAA and the AA 27% strikeout, 28% strikeout rate is this year. So I thought that was actually last year's stop. He's just made three stops this year so i i would assume uh this is a stolen base play and it's a better stolen base play than like bubba thompson i think uh to put him into perspective the uh outfielder for the rangers yep i would agree with that even though thompson runs a ton and is interesting in his own right. I like Mitchell a little bit better, I think, you know, just as a prospect. And I like the reduced swing strike rate in AAA. And it says to me that something about, like, you know, he at double a where everyone's just trying to throw

their hardest and throw and show their stuff and then he goes to triple a where people have more refined arsenals and he strikes out less so that's an interesting progression for me um and so you know yeah he's striking out too much right now but walking a lot and already has a stolen base in three games, five games of inconsistent. You know, he didn't start all five, right? No, I got the first big league home run out of the way, though I believe that was on Monday. Days are all starting to roll together.

He made his debut on Saturday and didn't start that game. That's exciting. You know, there's a game right there where you homer and stolen base in the same game. And it looks like he's starting two out of every three, is my guess. Yeah, because Taylor's good enough to play. That's the problem. It's not just Garrett Mitchell's job. It's a shared role for him, so you do have to keep an eye on the schedule.

But as late-season stolen base plays go, I think you could do a bit worse than Garrett Mitchell. We've certainly rostered players with lower floors than Mitchell looking for speed in September in years past. Bubba Thompson is, I think, more guaranteed to strike out more, is not going to add a good walk rate, is not as good of a prospect overall. And though, I guess the one difference, and he is a right-hander which i don't like the one difference is his team may just um put him out there more often to to evaluate him

right so that's where that's what you're judging uh when you're judging the two um but given that given the fact that they might put him out there, you might want to put him out there, he's still not playing every day. He's still playing almost as if he was a lefty, two out of three sort of situation. So I think I stand by the, I like Mitchell better. Let's get to some pitchers that have been brought up recently. Hunter Brown coming up for

the Astros. I don't know if there's a clear rotation spot for him given the depth they have right now, even with Justin Verlander down, but it wouldn't surprise me if they wanted to just manipulate the schedule, give a couple of their younger starters, Christian Javier, who has not been in the rotation for a full season, give guys like that a rest. So maybe it's a couple of spot starts around longer leaf innings. I do like Brown going into 2023, though. I don't know if he's an easy fit on a lot of rosters right now, given the uncertainty.

If he gets confirmed to start a game or two, then yeah, you want to pick him up and stream him, especially given the organizational consistency of putting guys in that multi-inning role and then nudging them into the rotation when needed. There's good stuff here, plenty of strikeouts. Control has improved a little bit compared to where it was a couple of years ago.

So I think I'm in on Brown if we get a green light for a couple of starting opportunities. It was interesting. We were talking in the 3-0 show about some of the plans that the Rays had for managing Shane McClanahan's innings down the stretch. And I could see this team, like to me, Luis Garcia needs a blow. But you don't want to necessarily have him take off a whole start, right? Because just in terms of keeping guys stretched out and how pitchers work,

that would have him almost need him to kind of rehab to get back out. You know what I mean? You don't want to miss a whole start. I could see him piggybacking with Luis Garcia or Jose Urquidy or even Lance McCullers. Lance McCullers is more about building up, but Javier maybe. McCullers, although Mance McCullers is more about building up, but Javier maybe. Those three, Javier, Garcia, and Urquidy did fade a little bit down the stretch last year, and this is a team that's thinking about the World Series, right? So I don't know if that makes him easy to use because

he may get three-inning stints, Hunter Brown, piggybacking with some of those veterans to kind of lessen their workload down the stretch. But the nice thing will be that it'll give us a look into his locations because his walk rates are bad, his command numbers are bad, but his location plus in the minor leagues this year is above average. in the minor leagues this year is above average. So maybe he's a guy who just lives on the corners and sometimes misses and is just willing to give up the walk to avoid the homer because he's chasing those strikeouts. If that's the case, there are other pitchers that have made that work, especially with good stuff.

So I'm not ready to say that he doesn't have good enough command to be a starter. I don't think this is a Josh James situation, but we'll get to know a lot more. And so I think this is kind of more of a wait and see unless they really do IL somebody or tell someone to take a two-week rest and then build them back up again in late September.

But I think more likely we're going to see some short outings someone to take a two-week rest and then build them back up again in late september um but i think more likely we're going to see some short outings from garcia or kitty and javier and brown will come and soak up some of those middle innings i'm not normal because it's september 1st and i'm already thinking about hunter brown as a round 33 round 35 draft and hold and hold next year i like that as a fall draft and hold pick that's gonna look really likely to be a guy that doesn't start in the major leagues but is like their first man up right that's a good spot to be in houston as we have seen time and time again ken waldachuk is up for the a's a's becoming a little more interesting by the week. Waldachuk, of course, the key player they got back

as part of the Frankie Montas trade at the trade deadline. I forget if you had stuff numbers on Waldachuk in the minors or not, but I think the ballpark alone makes him an immediate home streamer in a lot of leagues, even if we can't necessarily use him for all matchups right away. Yeah, I don't have him, but his walk rates have not even improved on the same level as Brown.

So I'm very interested to see how bad the command is because the stuff looks legit and the the strikeouts are pretty amazing the swinging strikes are pretty amazing like this is uh i did ask a little bit about do you know did poke around with uh some people within the organization that you know do does oakland value people who who are close to the major leagues too much? Like, is it, should, you know, if you could have had Waldachuk or Noel V. Marte, which one would you rather have? I think most people would say Noel V. Marte.

But one source pushed back on it a little bit and said, it depends on your taste for risk and I think if you look at Waldo Chuck's profile you see someone that I think the risk is he's wild and he's your fourth starter and the upside is he manages that and is your first starter, right? The risk with Noel V. Marte is, I mean, he's not a big leader. I guess that's in the range of outcomes. That still seems like a low probability outcome for Noel V. Marte, but maybe I overestimate the flora of position player prospects.

Maybe that's something I have wrong as someone that doesn't work inside the game. I mean, most of the numbers say that the bust rate is higher on pitchers than hitters. Although I will say that it's not like the bust rate on hitting prospects is 30% and the bust rate on pitching prospects is 60%, right? It's not that. It's more like the bust rate on hitting prospects is 40% and the bus rate on pitching prospects is 45%. I feel like that might be a topic for a future episode right there. I guess.

I still think with injury and the fluctuation in pitchers and the fact that it's harder for us to know the true talent of a pitcher, I think all of these things always push me towards wanting the bat. I, for one, would much rather have gotten the Mariners package. Maybe it wasn't on the table for Montas, but I much rather would have had the Mariners package. Or even just a player, let's say a little further down. Someone who plays up the middle.

It would have been Volpe in that case, but Oswald Peraza maybe as part of the headline. I don't really like Peraza. But I'm saying just a position, a good upper-level position player. Maybe he's not the specific example, but I prefer position player returns as well if I were in that position. It looks like we're getting another look at D.L. Hall, who kind of popped in

terms of stuff in that brief time we saw him that one uh matt brashian in the model kind of a left handed matt brash is sort of the floor and just crazy crazy bad command how do you think they're going to use him in the final month plus it is weird because they want to win games. I think he may end up taking over the role that Keegan Aiken had a little bit where he's used for two or three innings. The, the, the research that suggests that command is the first thing to go at 80 pitches means that if I want to win games and use DL Hall right now,

while allowing him to, you him to progress a little bit in his career, I would use him for less than 80 pitches. I would try to use him for 40 to 50 pitches. I think there's plenty of opportunity to use him for 40, 50 pitches, especially since Kyle Bradish is a guy that I would be having him throw his slider 40% of the time, which makes it kind of hard for him, I think, to turn the lineup over three times. So behind Kyle Braddish, behind Sammy Watkins, have him come in for two or three innings.

I think that would be a good way to win games. Looking at the way they've used him since sending him back down to AAA, they did move him into a relief role. It's been a multi-inning relief role so far. Two innings, two innings, one and a third, and one and a third. Sometimes I know what I'm talking about. Yeah, I kind of figure. I do like him long-term.

I think next year they'll stretch him out again and give him another chance because it's really good stuff, and it's a broad arsenal. Maybe he'll figure some things out about what he can command at the major league level. One reliever up that maybe has some long-term appeal, Mason Thompson, is getting a chance with the Nationals. I think he's only on the radar for me because I'm not sold on Kyle Finnegan being a clear long-term closer. Opportunity could just be available sooner rather than later. And Thompson looks like he has skills maybe as good as anybody else in that bullpen to quickly move up the depth chart and possibly help us out. Maybe not down the stretch this year, but if he pitches well,

he could be a candidate to compete for that job in spring training for 2023. Yeah, I have him with better stuff than finnegan uh i think stuff is more meaningful for closer for for in a more sticky year to year um and uh tanner rainy has uh elbow surgery so he'll be out next year um and uh you know kyle finnegan uh would be the catbird seat, but we'll get a little bit more information between now and then. And even a good setup guy is somebody that you should stick in your hat and remember. Speaking of which, I'm not sure he's going to close for the Cubs this year,

but Jeremiah Estrada just came up for the Cubs, and he has the second best fastball stuff in baseball after one outing. That can move a little bit after one outing, but it really matches the eye test. He's kind of a, he's found that, that, that fastball that everybody wants, which is kind of a lowish release point, uh, with a ton of ride. Um, and it, when you watch it, it looks a little bit like Felix Bautista's, which is the other best fastball in baseball, or is the number one fastball in baseball. Um, they've needed somebody like this to come. Wow. think he could you know get some saves uh because rowan wick you know maybe rowan wick is you know an incumbent uh for for saves

next year but he has struggled to turn some of his stuff into strikeouts and he has poor command i don't know that estrada has that um and uh as much as i like brandon hughes i think he doesn't profile necessarily as uh being one of these stuffists that can just take over a closer role he's more of a just a good reliever um so jeremiah strata man he there's a non-zero chance he's a closer for them next year um and uh i would say a large chance that he's a really important part of their bullpen next year for holtz people yeah another good name i picked up felix bautista uh because you know in his first of two appearances he had similar numbers and felix bautista turned in the closer in the next month or two. So that's,

that's the sort of trajectory I could see with Estrada. When you're, when you're a reliever, life, your life changes quickly. Yeah. Especially in a bullpen that's very unsettled right now in terms of how those roles are actually working out. It looks like it's a clear committee for the immediate future with the Cubs. Want visibly glowing skin in 14 days? With new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash, you can lather and glow. The 24-hour moisturizing body wash is infused with vitamin B3 complex and has notes of rose and cherry creme for a rich indulgent experience. Treat your senses with new Olay Indulgent Moisture Body Wash.

Buy it today at major retailers. Let's talk about a few other new-ish pitchers. One that got called up earlier this season and has been in the Boston rotation recently, Brian Baio. I'm just curious, the minor league numbers were really good. Now that we've had an extended look at what Bayo might be able to do against big league hitters. What are you seeing in the model and how optimistic are you about his chances of sticking as a starter and becoming a good fantasy starter for us? I, I, I,

it's the first couple of starts I really didn't like. Um, and the model didn't like them. And I, you know, I thought that people were too high on him. Um, and I didn't get it. However, as the season has gone on, by appearance,

he has improved almost with every appearance, as much as it's still been inconsistent results. His best stuff numbers have come in the last two. His best command numbers have come in the last two. And the model may actually be missing something one thing that uh is important to note with uh the pitching plus model is that um you know the softest ratings i would give anybody is like the softest how do i put it the the the the softest correlation between uh stuff plus and outcomes uh comes among change-ups and so

you know when you've got a guy like bayo who his best pitch is uh has been considered to be uh his change-up coming up um and then you look at his outcomes on his pitches, and he has a 20% whiff rate on his changeup, and he's not giving up an extra base hit, and they're hitting 200 off of it, I tend to think the model underrates him. So the fact that it already says that he's a pretty interesting player with a good slider, 94-ish stuff, and inconsistent command that's gotten better over the course of his appearances, I've changed my mind on him. I like him.

I think the model underrates his changeup, and I think the projections, it's kind of amazing to me that the projections are projecting him for such low strikeouts. Strikeout rates. He's been consistently putting up plus strikeout rates in the minor leagues, and I would expect that as he gets used to using his arsenal at the major league level, his strikeout rate goes up. To look well beyond the surface ratios, ERA and WIP right now in pretty rough shape. Could fix that in the final month plus,

but really impressive track record in the upper levels of the minor leagues and nice to see things improving in the underlying numbers with the model as well. What do you see in Javier Assad? I don't remember really noticing him on any prospect lists going into the season. Wasn't on my radar at all.

Getting a late opportunity with the Cubs. He's made a couple of starts so far. I think it's nine scoreless innings in two starts. More walks than strikeouts. So off the cuff, not necessarily a profile that I would ordinarily get excited about. But there is opportunity right now in the Cubs rotation. Yeah, and he's an interesting player because he's got a lot of pitches, how good they are and which are his out pitches and stuff. It's, it's up for debate and it's, uh, and they're all, there's, there's so many breaking

balls. You wonder if they're just going to like morph together, but the model says good slider, uh, that he can command, uh, a good cutter, uh, that is like his primary pitch um and uh so therefore uh if he's using the cutter as his primary pitch it could be undervaluing his sinker and force seam which he could be playing off of that however uh he throws everything hard so it's kind of hard to tell what his primary pitch is he's got this sinker he's thrown 42 times a four seam he's thrown 32 times a cutter he's thrown 59 times you know i guess you could say okay the cutter is the primary in which case we may see some changes in the experimental model that we were working on that will say that it will determine your primary fastball or primary pitch as the one you throw the most in your outing.

And so we may see some changes to that in the future. What has improved in the second outing was his command. It was really poor in his first outing. Maybe he was nerves. Maybe he's just trying to throw real hard. But I see some real opportunity here for a guy to go on your sleeper list for next year uh because what have i said often on this broadcast is that a lot of pitches is good and he's got a lot of pitches and most of them are nearly league average either in command or stuff so i think this is a guy with a slight tweak of of what he's got uh could it turn out to be a really good pitcher. I don't know if I see an ace, but I see a very usable pitcher here. A couple other names. We saw Cade Cavalli debut last weekend and then unfortunately suffered what appears to be a season-ending injury after just one start. I think the model, if I remember glancing at it over the weekend, kind of lined

up with expectations. Stuff was pretty good. Location was a little bit shaky. And as we've pointed out before, sometimes that can also be impacted by a debut, right? There's usually a little bit of location lost in a pitcher's debut. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I remember studying the debut velocity bump a while back, and it was very similar to the postseason velocity bump. So there's an adrenaline bump, whether it's the postseason or your debut.

injury for Cavalli. Come up, try to throw as hard as you can in your first start and leave holding his shoulders. Not good news. The model did say he could command his foreseam. So the fact that he had such poor location numbers was based almost entirely on his secondary stuff. If you have good foreseam command, you know know i remember talking to uh seth part now about basketball and he said that if you have um inconsistent results uh from three pointers but you uh you can hit your free throws that you can actually use free throws as a proxy for this is a this guy's a good shooter. And, you know, basically, if you have like a big man who doesn't take many threes, but the team says, oh, we're going to take more threes this year.

If he has a good free throw percentage, then he might have a good three point percentage when he tries it, you know. And so I think of that almost when I look at fastball and, and secondary command. If you can command your four seam fastball and in small, in a small sample, you haven't shown the ability necessarily to command your secondary stuff as well. I'm not as worried then if you can't command your four seam. Commanding your four seam almost seems like the free throws.

Yeah. Yeah. That's the thing you practice the most. That's the thing, you know, that's the thing you should be able to do so it should be the easiest pitch to command in theory right the straightest and that there's other evidence too that the bigger your movement is we have these sweepers we have these large movement pitches we have these matt brash type pitches um that when have big movement, it's harder to command. That's what makes Corey Kluber a GOAT in some ways, is he has this huge breaking ball and he

has great command. And I think that's been I'm, I like him. I like him. I think, uh, you know, when you think about a organization, sometimes having trouble, you know, um, making it work with people, uh, you know, developing players, um, that doesn't always true for their first round pick. You know what I mean? Like sometimes talent is just good enough to, to, to make it happen.

Yeah. And maybe more of a finished product, relatively speaking to compared to other players that you're drafting. So something else to keep in mind, I guess, with Cade Cavalli, plenty of opportunity for him next season in that rotation too, should have a spot to call his own for the foreseeable future.

One last topic for today. Let's talk about the Julio Rodriguez contract extension, which as we've learned over the last week or so is very complicated. It is 12 guaranteed years, but the way the options work, he could be in Seattle through 2039. And I think the best thing I've seen so far, Nick Vitalis from Lookout Landing made a flow chart breaking down how this contract actually works because there's the club option path and there's a player option path. I mean, what is going on with this contract? If he's good, it'll be a huge contract. If he's as good as he's been even now and suggests that there's some growth because he's 21 and can get better for four or five years, then it'll be a $470 million contract.

I believe that was the maximum possible if every incentive, every option, if at all it gets triggered. Yeah, basically what happens is it's like it's $120 million for the first eight years. And if he's good, there are these escalators. And the club option changes from a $200 million deal to a 10-year $350 million deal. And so that's where you get the 470 that's if he gets some al mvp finishes and the team wants him for another 10 years after the first eight years um so the the max is 470 and i think the min for me some people have talked about 200 million but i don't i don't i don't really know where that comes from. What I see is a minimum of $120 million for eight, and then a player option for $90 million that Rodriguez would use.

I think that's the minimum because, if you think about it, if he's good enough to get more than $90 million, he's very likely the team picks up his option. If he's good, then the team picks up his option. Like if he's good, then the team picks up this option. They get him for eight for 200 or 10 for 350. If he's bad, then he would rather or been injured a lot, then he'd rather just pick up and get another 90 million. So I see the minimum as 90 million plus 120, 210 million. That's the floor of the contract,

but I think the club option having some performance-dependent incentives that are probably the biggest incentives I can recall in a contract make this even more interesting than the typical deal that keeps a great young player in one place for a very long time. Just a cool thing to see, right? We like seeing stars, young stars stars get an opportunity to get paid and possibly spend their entire career with one franchise. I believe this contract also had a full

no trade, which that's a pretty rare thing to get for someone this age as well. I'm sure there's a possibility he leaves money on the table because he could play six years and then sign,

uh, and six years now inflation with inflation, right? Um, you know, he could sign something better than 10 and three 50. Could, but still,

this is a great longterm deal to have. And he gets some certainty, but he also has, he gets a pretty good ceiling. If he's the player that i think he expects to be and that many people expect him to be and it's you know there's something cool about he's an he's a plus plus person i mean every interaction i've had with him has just been really fun and he's he's lively engaging engaging. He's present. And he likes people and people like him. And I think that he's really liked his process through the minor league.

I think he thinks that the Mariners have made him a better player. And I think he sees an opportunity to just be a mariner star you know um and he you know everything goes right he gets 470 million dollars and goes into the hall of fame with this mariner's hat on right uh and if if something goes wrong with injury or i think the only sort of minor thing I could see is maybe too much chase. But it's not like, it's not Rafael Devers' chase, where Devers has, we had a listener tweet out that Devers has a chance to have one of the biggest collapses of recent history, being a top 10 player in the first half

and being a bottom 10 player in the second half by WRC+. Devers has way more chase than Rodriguez has right now. And so that's the only little thing, and that should improve over time. If you look at his chart for the year, it's improved over this course this year. So, you know, I think it's mostly just, it would be injury. Yeah. Hoping we see a healthy Julio Rodriguez in Seattle for a very long time and hoping he plays at a level where he gets every single dollar out of all of

those incentives. That'd be the, the best possible outcome. I think for everybody, if we could actually watch that happen over the next decade, plus we are going to go before we go a quick reminder get a subscription to athletic for a dollar a month for the first six months at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels you can send us questions via email rates and barrels at theathletic.com you can find us on

twitter enos at enosarius i am at derek van riper that's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels we are back with you on tuesday have a safe and happy long weekend thanks for listening