Rates & Barrels - Reliever Bonanza!!

Episode Date: May 29, 2025

Eno & Trevor go on a reliever bonanza and talk everything reliever from the past 4 seasons to the future. They breakdown the best relievers of the past 4 years, some of the guys in the top 30, a few guys who could make the jump soon and a few players to keep an eye on in the future and what pitches make them special. Rundown1:20- Young Players that might be called up soon6:12- Tim Anderson DFA'd by the Angels9:36- Doval moved back to the Giants closer14;12- Best Relievers in the last 4 years19:07- Jason Adam breakdown25:59- Griffin Jax breakdown28:27- Tanner Scott breakdown33:46- Jeff Hoffman breakdown38:36- Graham Ashcroft look ahead40:38- Jeremiah Estrada look ahead44:14- Randy Rodriguez look ahead48:10- Will Vest look ahead51:00- Relievers to look for in the future & their best pitchesFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.socialFollow Trevor on Bluesky: @iamtrevormay.bsky.sociale-mail: [e-mail] our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Eno Sarris & Trevor MayExecutive Producer: Brian Smith Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome everybody to another Rates and Barrels without Derek Van Riper. I am losing my damn mind out here, but Trevor Bay is here to help me and I will need his help because I do not know how to throw things or to transition or any of that. So I just say, Hi Trevor May, how are you doing? I'm doing so good. Wonderful intro. You're crushing it. No, I know what you mean. It's especially if it's the person you're used to having and pushing things around. But fortunately, we don't have as many subjects. Our show is designed a little bit differently where we can just kind of rant, which I think

we do pretty well. So this was an easy one. So maybe this is a ranting episode. We're doing reliever bonanza today. We're going to do a little bit of news up top and then we are just talking about relievers, something near and dear to Trevor's heart. We are going to talk about some of the best relievers in the past four years,

hopefully then take that to the next four years to kind of give you a sense of maybe what to look for and how to evaluate relievers just beyond the numbers. Today, just a little bit of news, Jeff Passon has a piece up about Jack Caglione and Roman Anthony and how they might be up soon and why they aren't up yet. I saw this little nugget in there was that Jack Caglione is on basically like a week and a half home stand right now and that he might be up after that.

I think it's high time. Yes, he chases the pitches outside of the zone as the piece rings up, but he's done that a little bit better recently. And then on top of that, how much worse could he be than the current Royals outfield? Apparently in the last week, he's out-homered the entire Royals outfield over the whole season. So I think it's a dire need right now that Royals outfield is slugging 333 and could use an infusion of talent. The team is doing pretty well, but it needs more offense.

I don't know if you've got to see any of Jack, but dude hits the ball super, super hard. Guys and monster hits the ball really hard and that is what and monster, it's the ball really hard and that is what they need. I'm always a little bit skeptical because it's a situation sometimes these things backfire where the team's hanging around and they need more offense and you bring up a rookie to try to get that offense.

Like that kind of expectation. That's a lot on his shoulders. Yeah, can kind of hurt development if it doesn't, it depends on the guy, right? This guy seems like he's got an abundance of confidence, so I don't think it's gonna be an issue for him, but it is one of those situations where, yeah, sure, he chases more than you'd like,

but that's most often a thing that you, it's part of establishing yourself at the big leagues anyway, so he's gonna have to learn and learn quickly, and if he comes up and is cold for a while, then he's just another guy, and at least he's getting reps at the big leagues anyway. So he's gonna he's gonna have to learn and learn quickly. And if he comes up and is cold for a while, then he's just another guy. And at least he's getting reps at the level that he needs to learn at. So if that's the distinction you're making, then bring him up. I think that last part is important because, you know, it's hard that the game trains you, right? So if you're in the minor leagues and you're chasing too much, you're probably being rewarded for some of those chases,ases. Like you're hitting those balls hard

because they aren't great pitches. And yes, maybe it was three inches outside of the strike zone, but you hit it for a homer. So it's like, what you have to do is get to the big leagues where those pitches outside of the strike zone are not rewarding you. And then the game kind of trains you to be like, I'm not gonna swing at that one.

All I'll do is roll that over. So I think there's some, to some extent, this is something you can only learn in the big leagues. Also, what I've pointed out before is natural aging curves for hitters, just you swing less over naturally, you know, as you get, as you stay in the big leagues, because you start to be able to see pitches better. You anticipate what people are trying to do to you. You just become a better player over time that way and that'll help him.

So I tend to like guys who put up 120s. I also tend to like guys who have quads of steel. This dude, he went to the Trevor May School of Lifting. I mean he's got he's got hams and I just feel like that's an important part of power. You know, is hamstring strength just quad strength. Isn't there a like that's an important part of power, you know is Hamstring strength just quad strength. Isn't there a thing that's kind of surprising to people that like your standing jump on the force plate Is like super important to like how much how hard you can throw and how hard you can swing Have you ever do you ever do that? There's standing jump and then there's also Have you ever do you ever do that? There's standing jump and then there's also

now they have force plates where it's like in the box so they can tell how much energy you're putting into your plant foot, landing foot. Same with pitching like the whole mounds of force plate so they can tell how much you're putting into the mound and then how hard you're coming down. And that was something that I was kind of natural at. I just kind of pushed all my energy into the ground.

So that is a big, big part of it it it is interesting to notice that especially for hitters how strong they are in that way because it makes making timing adjustments actually I mean you got the natural power the natural strength like the idea of staying back longer or sitting deeper into a leg you already have the strength to do it so you don't have to develop that you just have to feel it a guy who actually I would like to chat about who's eventually, maybe not today, who I think is explained by that whole thing right there is I was live at a Mariners game the other day,

watched Jorge Planko and saw a change in his hips. And he is super strong on the ground. He cocks his hips back, turns himself closer, close a little bit. You can tell from behind, you can really tell. And he has been on top of everything. And that's something that I, closed a little bit. You can tell from behind, like you can really tell, and he has been on top of everything. And that's something that I've seen a little bit talked about with Jack as well,

that he stays in his legs, because he's so strong, really, really well, so he can feel that. And that bodes well for making adjustments to the big league level, getting going, or trying to slow yourself down so you're not chasing things that you don't wanna chase. So he's got that baseline. That is something that I think,

especially in development and in scouting, lots of teams are, that's one of the markers for a lot of potential in that area. On the other hand, we have a skinnier dude who maybe near the end of his career, Tim Anderson, was DFA'd by the Angels. Really, you know, it's kind of weird to draw lines like this. I mean, I think it's just narrative. I think probably his career was on the downside anyway. But, you know, pre and post punch, like Tim Anderson's career. Like if you line them up like that, it really it's really stark. He was he was a really good player before that. I think he was already on the way down.

And I think I think the thing that Tim Anderson represents is almost he's like a throwback player. Like he just, he did have some power at the beginning but he never really put up like the barrel rates that people look for. And he was always such a high chaser. You know, this is the kind of thing that we're worried about with chasing,

with guys who chase a lot is that the strikeout rate kind of goes through the roof as they lose the ability to make contact. And you know, I talk about Josh Hamilton, Javier Baez, but you have Tim Anderson swinging at 40 plus percent, almost 45% of the pitches he saw outside the zone. And when he was a young man, you know, he struck out 21, 22% of the time. The last two years, it's 28 and 30% of the time. So I think that chase is one of those things that doesn't have to be important

when they're 24, but it can become pretty important when they're 30. I hope he catches on, but he's going to have to do something about that plate approach because basically not walking, walking striking out 30% of time and not showing power. He may not get another offer I don't know it was fun to watch when he was at his best though I think that's an indicator of reliance on like natural talent like you you know You're you have the ability to put the bat on the ball So you swing and everything two other guys who actually don't swing a miss but chase like crazy or Jacob Wilson and Louie Arias, right? But they had back to ball skills. Now, the interesting thing about those two

is as they get older and they start missing more, are they gonna work on the not swinging at those pitches? You're almost, it's almost like self-defeating at times when you're so good at hitting things, everything you see that if something nags you or gets off, you don't know how to stop swinging at those things and it gets bad really fast. I think with Tim Anderson at the beginning, he swung at everything, we knew that, but

he was hitting everything, he could run, he was poking stuff around, he was just really athletic and he was confident. I think one of the warning signs versus those guys is that Wilson's in arises, those guys are at 12 and 14% strike hours and even when Anderson's going well, it's more like 22%. So what if Wilson in his old age goes up to 18 and 20, right? He's not going up to 28 and 30. So there's that room for error. But what you mentioned, that's why on yesterday's show,

we were talking about Chase Midroth, it's like there's a chance for him to be a slightly different player than a Lot of these other guys because he does not chase and that changes things a little bit the Luis Riza types are actually He's at the very top end He's the very best version of this but there are other guys who like walk 4% of the time and strike out 14% of time They're just not as good as him at like the singles thing You know like that is a type of player that exists out there.

But it's interesting to think about Tim Anderson and looking at, and that's something that we'll do with relievers in a second. And just as a possible transition here, it looks like the Giants are transitioning from Ryan Walker to Camilo Tijolval at the closer role. I noticed that Ryan Walker's splits this year are a little bit more traditional and that doesn't surprise me because he's basically a sinker sweeper. He's like a sinker slider guy. The high end velocities, of course, the platoon splits can be smaller just because it's still

high end velocity, but you would expect him to have trouble against lefties. This year he's having a little bit more trouble against lefties. And then generally, I think that most teams prefer not to have a sinker based pitcher as their closer. I think that's just because you see some platoon risk there. You know, if you think about it, I don't actually know off the top of my head of a single closer that is sinker based. There are more cutter based guys.

So Camille Duvall to me is a lesser Emmanuel Classe. Cutter slider won't have as many strikeouts as even as Classe but it won't have as many strikeouts as your traditional closer. But there is this model before of cutter slider. We'll talk about Graham Ashcraft later. He kind of fits that bill Then there are a lot of forcing slider guys, you know But when it comes to like what is Matt brash's future? What are some of these thinker slider guys?

I tend to think that they aren't necessarily Going to be closers in the capital L. Do you share that when you think about relievers? Do you care about what their primary fastball is? I think with closers, one big thing you need to be able to do because hits happen in the big leagues is shut it down with strikeouts. You got to be able to strike out the side with base load with no outs. You just have to be able to do it. And there's just no, there's really not a lot of sinker, slider guys who can do that. Or can count on that. They might be able to get one or two, but you have to be able to get that.

I think that these guys, like Ryan Walker, for example, is like, I'm trying to get the ground ball here in the infield to throw a home and throw it first. Like get it up play. Still, he's still thinking about that, which is contact, right? And contact greatly increases the chances of a run scoring. You only have to get burned two or three times on that

in a year for it to really not be worth it. And so like, kind of Clay Holmes, same thing last year. Like he didn't have a terrible year. It's just like, he got in a couple situations where he gave a bleed off double and he just can't keep that guy from scoring. Yeah, I think Clay Holmes is a great example. That's always gonna be part of being the closer.

That's why like, Sugar Diazz, Edwin Diaz still has the ability to close because even if you're nail biting and he's walked a couple guys, he just knows he can go, he's gonna go for strikeouts. He always has, he's gonna keep doing it no matter what. And so the potential of keeping this, no matter how ugly it is, how many pitches he has to throw, throwing a zero is something that is always on the table

until that run scores. And I don't think you can I say that with as much Confidence for guys who throw sinkers sinker sliders because sinkers just easier to put the ball bat on it's just that simple The only guys that I can see right here that have a good sinker and not a good four seam That are closers one is hater, but that doesn't count Another is a rolled as Chapman, strangely. I'm willing to just say that's a kind of a unique bucket because it is a sinker, but it gets a lot of whiffs. It's more like a running two seamer.

It's also 99. I don't know. Maybe at 99 and 100, you're okay. Yeah, it's not a traditional sinker. It's not a great sinker, which means it's closer to a four seam. Right, exactly. So the high VELO helps. I guess the closest is maybe Will Vest, who will show up on our last four year list, but he is, I don't know, I think he's just a really quality guy and also his fourseen stuff plus is a hundred so

He's got maybe just enough foreseen to make it work and he throws hard enough to he's also kind of funky we'll talk about us in a little bit, but he's also got a little bit of a Weird arm angle for for the for like how he locates and how he throws some of the pitches like it's much higher than you Would think it is based on his delivery, which is interesting. He's he's he's got a little bit of Weirdness, I think going on as well It's like maybe a little bit Holmes ish, but maybe with a better four seam than Holmes had as a reliever He definitely has a better forcing. Yeah, it carries it just has some more run than most four seams, but it still carries up there It's up there in Lee and Kerry

alright, so we're off to I mean we're started basically, but let's get to our reliever bonanza. Here we go. We're going to do a reliever bonanza and we're going to start with just a discussion of you know, the best relievers over the last four years. So you're going back to 2020, 22, and you're doing it by war. And what you've got at the top are guys like Emmanuel Classe, Ryan Helsley, Edwin Diaz is in the top 10. Those guys, I think, are just extreme levels of stuff, stayed healthy for four years in a row, and might have been on the easier end to spot when they came into the big leagues. They're just studs that entered the scene and were all like, oh yeah, stud, closer. They didn't spend a lot of time setting up.

They were set up guys for a year year maybe and then they were closers. If you watch them with your eyeballs, you don't need it stuff plus. They're guys that average close to a hundred miles an hour and have 90 plus mile an hour breaking balls, all of them. So I don't know if there's like a real science to those guys that is super interesting for kind of reliever prospecting going forward, going backwards. The one thing I will say is when I think about those guys and then I think about going forward who we have, I'm not sure that we have as many.

You know, we were talking about this before, but like maybe we have Mason Miller and Andres Munoz who, you know, Andres Munoz actually showed up in the last four years. So I don't know, that would be, might actually be pushing it to ask for another four years to stay at the top. Because it's tough to stay at the top of a list like this. But I can think of Mason Miller as a young guy with extreme stuff that's just announced himself with authority and fits into the sort of Edwin Diaz, Emmanuel Classe, Ryan Halsley. He four years from now will absolutely be

on the top of this list, providing he stays healthy. But I don't actually have an answer for a lot of other young guys that are just announced themselves the same way. I don't know if that's just a function of this moment right now, but are there other names that I'm not thinking of that are just like, oh yeah, that guy.

No, I think you're right. There isn't a lot off the top of the head. And it's interesting because a lot of things have changed in terms of especially since kovat how quickly they bring you guys up They're not like pegging somebody for that role and then they're getting like Munoz got moved into that role pretty quickly, too They like, you know, they were like see walled see ya and then Munoz was just a closer like there was no Conversation you just inherited it where everyone knew that's what was gonna happen. It was pretty obvious They had that situation. There are lots of guys that are throwing maybe the six, seventh inning for teams that are throwing 99 a hundred.

I feel like they're just much more raw than they maybe have been in the past. And also I just feel like the confidence level in the ability to get your guys at the best stuff to be starters is higher than it's ever been. And maybe they're hanging up like Mason Miller going to that role that quickly, it was just because he has just could not throw very many innings. He just got hurt so much in the minors. He went through 24 innings for gut the big leagues like that. There was a thing happening. It's been four times.

If he was like a tiny bit healthier, he would have followed at least the Graham Ashcraft, right? 100 percent. He would still be a starter now. If he didn't get hurt that last year or that first year at all, if he didn't go on the IL at all, he'd probably still be starting, they'd be still trying to start him. But I think the decision was just made early because of the number, we just need his guy on the field. And if this is what it means, then this is what it means. I mean, your point is also made by how many relievers are being turned into starters these days. Because we had Clay Holmes just making that transition from being a closer.

They could have easily just kept him as a closer even if it wasn't a perfect fit. In days past, they might have just done that. Instead, now he's a starter because he's got the starter repertoire. The only names I could think of, I think Robert Suarez is sort of close. He just doesn't really have some of the strikeout rates and stuff numbers of, I don't know that I would want to stake my claim to him. John Duran is somebody that might just be there

for the next four years because he's got excellent stuff. I guess I wonder a little bit about the health with him. Seems like he's already been. And Suarez is like, what, 33? Yeah. So he's just all, I just think he's just kinda, his story's unique and he was just a late bloomer and that dings him a little bit because you're like,

he's just not a young guy. He doesn't really have a great secondary. Like, he throws a cutter and a change, but he doesn't really trust either of them. So, there's some questions, I think, around him. So, if you wanted me to, like, say, I think these three pitchers are going to be here on this leaderboard in four years, I guess I would guess Andres Munoz, Mason Miller and John Duran.

Yeah, because you're just putting me in the corner and that's the way I get out of that corner. But we did want to talk about some guys who were top 30 that, you know, may not, may not be obvious. They may not be obvious. They may not be obvious, especially at the time. I think you wanted to talk about Jason Adam. I think you're basically frothing at the bit. He's my favorite picture. You love Jason Adam.

I love the guy because one, I just completely mimicked him in 2023 and it fixed me. That was a big deal. The way I kind of think about relief pitchers, well all pitchers, but relief pitchers specifically because making adjustments quickly for a reliever is almost more important than for a starter because you might pitch the next day. Like being really fast with seeing something

that's not working and then stopping is important because too bad a outing is just ruining your year. It's so important to do that. So Jason Adams, maybe the best guy I've seen out there, the way he's adjusted over these four years to maintain himself, his success, because he's done it in different ways the whole time, which is just really impressive.

So there's kind of two buckets, I guess, in pitching, and one, especially for relievers, one is like there's a elite pitch or elite combination of two pitches, I guess, in pitching, and one, especially for relievers, one is like, there's a elite pitch or elite combination of two pitches, wipe out, so like, when it comes down, push comes to shove, you're getting the nasty thing. And why bother, you know, add a bunch of pitches, like you just have these two pitches.

Why bother adding a bunch of stuff, and maybe we have a wrinkle to throw up against platoons. There's a couple guys in here that have something, so they have a weapon against a platoon split Just to keep him off guard, but they're still gonna go to their to their bread and butter and then there's guys who Are covering the relationship to each other all the pitches are relations like baby starters Baby starters, you know like they have a four pitch mix or something they have a four pitch mix and they and they're using those pitches to get the dominance type stuff that they need as a reliever.

Like get the swings and misses. So that's what Jason Adam does. And this is really interesting. We will look, well I'll show you all these pitches after, but he throws four pitches and the way he's used these pitches has changed, especially in these four years. So he threw no gyro in 22, 23, and then he started throwing a gyro in the middle of 23 and then took it in 24 and now he's got one in 25.

Here's how all this pitch mix has changed. You can see basically when it goes up and down and up and down year to year and there's pitches added in here, he even tried to knuckle curve in there a little bit. Like it is very, very interesting how this has happened because he's very clearly reacting to how these pitches are performing on the field.

And his core is that change up, right? That's his best pitch, quote unquote. It is his bulk pitch, but he has optimized all of his pitches too, and we coined this name right before the show, he's a Magellan. He covers all four quadrants of the compass if you're looking at the zone, the north, south, east, and west.

So the interesting thing is he throws a sweeper, he throws a gyro, he throws a force seam, he throws a change up. So the change up has arm side run, the force seam has good ride, and he throws the top of the zone. The sweeper throws, it has a horizontal movement going glove side, opposite of his change up,

almost exactly, it's like 17 inches of sweep and 15.5 inches of run So those two things are going opposite way and then the gyro goes straight down like there's no horizontal So he's covering south so he wants when he throws a pitch the hitter to have to think it could go all four directions That is optimization and that's why he added the gyro late It's a little bit like Adam on if you know, right? Sinker slider with the add to the cutter to basically stay in the middle.

To stay in the middle, yes. And then he's like, oh depth is coming back. Depth is really important. All these guys throwing curve balls, that's not my game. Maybe I can throw a death ball or gyro to get some depth. And then he did it. And all these pitches are like, his gyro's like top 2% in the league in depth.

It's 5.5 inches. More depth than similar sliders. And his change-up's great because he uses it, and I've asked him this question. I'm like, do you think of your change-up as a sinker kind of, because he throws 94, 95, and his sinker's like 87 to 90. Sometimes he's like 90, 91 with it.

But he's throwing that into righties, and then he's throwing sweepers away from them. Or he's throwing four seams up and in, then he's throwing aers away from them, or he's throwing force teams up in it, and then he's throwing a change up off it, but he just throws a change up because it moves a bunch, and it functions like a sinker. So Solerra was like, I'm looking for a way, or a sweeper or something, or depth,

or maybe he's got a bunch of change ups, and then he just gets, 94 gets blown by him because everything else is softer, especially the sweepers, it's like high 70s. But he identified a guy who can't hit east-west, and throws that one to him Jason Ab knew that and he had a pitch for it He didn't have that before now he has it if you're a reliever and you have all those things and you have mid-90s You're going to be really good to the tune of here. I'll hit you with some stats

Over the last four years is a 202era and a 160 batting average against For four years like that's maybe that he could be That's top five batting average, it's gotta be. Up there with like Devon Williams and Hayter and like these guys. 77 holds and 24 saves. That's over 100 leverage stats of 200 outings. Half of them.

Like that's as reliable as you can get. 60%, or sorry, 30% K percentage and then 8.5 walk, which is just league average, which makes his chase rate better because people know he might throw a ball, which is important. You can't only throw strikes. Ter Schubel gets hit with that sometimes where he gives a pull up and runs

and he throws so many strikes. It's like literally he's optimized. There's no other way to say it. Like he's, I don't think there is a better version of him. I think he has been the best version of himself and he's good at figuring out what he needs to adjust in order to continue to be the best version of himself and that's the type of thing we're looking for relievers.

If I were a reliever, I'd be like, what's Jason Adam do? I need to create my own version of that, whatever that is. At 95, that's actually maybe below average for a closer, but he's established. You know what it reminds me of a little bit is this sort of rice-like-Leglacius. This is a guy who's going to get outs and he's going to be able to figure it out year over year, but he may not be ever like Mason Miller. He's not going to be a top three closer in the league.

Well, if you think about it, the same thing happened to him in Tampa. Pete Fairbanks was given the chances because he threw 100. He was why he was big and power and threw 100. And so their strikeout rates are similar. It wasn't like Pete Fairbanks also strikes out a bunch of people, but it's not like he was way better than Jason Adam striking guys out. If you're looking for the K, get out of the big situations. They're both good at that, but they were just like,

no, the six, eight guy who throws 100 is the prototype for that, and you're more of a pitcher, so you're going to pitch in more So you're gonna pitch in more, you're more versatile in situations, which is really weird to think because traditionally we've always thought the closer was the best reliever. But like in that context, you're like, yes, they are the best reliever stuff wise,

but they can only do a couple things really well, as opposed to you being able to do everything really well. So you're gonna pitch more different situations. Yeah, I wonder if he will just get like a setup man's deal and be just underrated going forward for another team, you know, or if, if, if, you know, somebody like the Braves is like, no, we're cool with like different kinds of closers and everybody else and we're gonna step forward. A guy that I wanted to point out that's like him a lot is Griffin Jackson.

I called it the baby starter package and he throws four different pitches and he's slider heavy. He loves that sweeper. It's a really good sweeper, but he's developed a four seam off of that, a change up off of that, a sinker. He throws four pitches more than 8% of the time. And I wanted to look at the list of guys that were like that. And there are some guys who might be starters going forward. And there's one thing that we thought about with Jax. I think probably the door has been closed on that for

Adam and maybe for Jax at this point in their careers, because it's been so many years since they last started. But that is going to be a temptation like it was for Clay Holmes and others where you have this large mix. Could you be a starter? So Ben Casperius is second in stuff plus among pitchers with four pitches or more out of the bullpen. And he's actually my favorite for taking the possibly open job right now in LA and going with it. I know some sites have Justin Robleski listed there. I know there's a debate right now about who that should be. I really like Ben Casperis and I think he can be a starter. But other guys on this list, Yumi Garcia is actually, despite having the number one stuff on this list, does throw a curveball 16% of the time,

a slider 18% of the time, a sinker 14% of the time, forcing 43. He's one of my favorites for some team signing him to a decent smaller deal and profiting off of it. He's another guy I don't think will get a closer deal. In fact, I don't see anybody on here that will get a closer deal, but I do like a lot of these guys. Brock Stewart is back to being good.

And he was a starter for so long that he kind of brought that energy. Justin Martinez has four pitches. Whether or not he can command them, I don't think he can necessarily be a starter because he has command issues on a lot of them. But Justin Martinez becomes more interesting to me because, hey, here's a guy who does have closer stuff

and four pitches. So that's somebody that I want to bet on. Like, Aroldis Chapman is on this list. I highlighted Jackson Rutledge as somebody that you may not expect to have 108 stuff plus and five pitches. I wonder if he could make a start in the future or just hold down this kind of like middle seventh eighth inning. It's just good to have options. The other type of archetype that I wanted to point out that was interesting going backward is on this top 30 list over the last four years. Tanner Scott is the fourth best reliever since 2022 started. It goes Klase, Helsley, Jacks, Scott, Williams, Munoz. And Scott, since the 2022 started, has a 291 ERA, five wins

above replacement, just excellent numbers, except for one little area, which is the walk rate. And that's something we've always known with Scott is that it does not have excellent command, but something identified as a possible way to see reliever breakouts like Tanner Scott's before is this chart that I've got. This is the chart that shows Tanner Scott's rolling zone percentage versus his ERA. And it tells a story that you probably already knew, which is that when he thought he had bad command and he was nibbling and everything, he had the bad ERA. And then when he just trusted his stuff and threw his nasty stuff to the zone, his ERA

plummeted. And so that is a thing that I think other relievers could follow. So I just looked at, you know, sorted by zone percentage on fan graphs the wrong way. So the lowest zone percentage. And then I looked for guys who have high stuff plus on a low zone percentage. I won't talk about them too much

because we're talking about it later, but Brendan Little, 34% zone percentage, league average is 52, and he has 121 stuff plus. So he doesn't know he need this yet, but at some point he needs to throw more in the zone. And I think he has the stuff to do it. But I also wanted to point out that Jeremiah Estrada, another person we're going to talk about, has a 46% zone rate and I think he can be in the zone more. But there's an athletic

on here, Justin Sterner. Also Mason Miller's on here, 45% zone rate. I think that might be part of the struggles this year. Mason, you know it, just throw it middle. And then Justin Sterner has had success this year, 26% strikeout rate, 13% walk rate though, and 108 stuff plus, I think he could benefit from throwing in the zone a little bit more. But this is something you can do on your own where you look at zone percentage, you look at stuff plus, you put them on the same board.

Reed Garrett, 112 stuff plus, 47% zone percentage. These are guys that could break out with a little bit more. Even Trevor Meggiel, 48% zone, 121 stuff plus. do it. Throw it more in the zone. And I think that could be a part of the future tenor Scott as somebody who has a big walk rate right now, just deciding to be like, hey, my pitching coach just told me I have nasty stuff. And then you do it a couple times, I feel like, and you're like, aha, yeah, yeah, okay, I get it.

There's like a weird thing that happens when guys come into the big leagues with maybe not necessarily the best command yet, or even like they're not, they know they don't have great control. So when I got called up, this is a process I had to go through in the big leagues. In AAA, my last year before I got called up in 2013,

into 2014, is the first time my walk rate went down to you know under 8% like I was in the sixes, sevens. My whole career had been over a 4.9 I don't know what that comes out to percentage wise but like I walked a lot of guys but I struck out a lot of guys but I walked a lot of guys and so I had this idea that oh I don't have great command I don't have great control I'm a walk up but like I need to get better at that. I got to the big leagues and I made a decision like we got to throw it into the box.

Like we just gotta have good, we just have to throw more strikes generally and you gotta sacrifice hits probably, and strikeouts a little bit too to get that because you're not gonna stay here unless you do that. And that was a, and then once you had control, then you could start shaving those stuff off and get a little bit better.

And so I think guys who come up are like, I'm not a, I don't have great control. It's scary. Just internalize what they know people are talking about or whatever. It's just like define them a little bit. So going the other way and just saying, throw it in the box feels like you're giving something up.

Like you're giving away something that makes you good, your strikeout rate or your nastiness or your chase rate. That's gonna diminish if you commit to just throwing into the box, but it's hard to do. And then once that happens, like I feel like the Tampa A-Race just made it simple. They just kinda be like, but it's hard to do. And then once that happens, like I feel like the Tampa A-Race just made it simple. They just came in like, we're giving you one target.

And they're like, oh, they took the choice out of your hands and they're forcing you to do it. No wonder Joe Boyle went over there and made his first start in the big leagues, had a no hitter going into the sixth. Because of course he did. Like I knew that was gonna happen because he's nasty. He just couldn't throw strikes.

So like aiming for the box, sometimes you have to be given permission for that to be your goal. So we gotta see some of these guys do that because they are nasty. It's hilarious that, because I feel like Tanner Scott was a guy we all watched were like, how does this guy give up any runs?

How does he have a five? How? This is impossible. It's the walks or that being two-oh to everybody. And guys can hit 98 when they're 2-0. They just can. So just throw the strikes a couple more. So a couple more strikes earlier in account

and suddenly your entire life changes. It is that simple. You know, another guy, Abner Uribe, we'll talk about in a second, you know, I think he's taken off a little bit more by just trusting his stuff in the zone. But you had one more guy from the last four years that you wanted to highlight here.

We can quickly touch on him because he's in that other bucket. I have a nasty outpitch that I'm going to get myself. I'm, everything else is to point me to getting to that pitch. And that's a slider. He loves a slider. It's a two-plane slider and he's got rides. So he's got a ride guy with a two-plane slider

and he throws a change-up that is literally almost only the lefties and He'll work in a secure every once a while that is only in a righties and that's like his wrinkle pitch to the platoons But he wants to throw his forcing fastball high 90s and he wants to throw that two-plane Wipe out high 80 slider and that is that is what his bread and butter is gonna be his name is And his name is Jeff Hopman is going to be. His name is? And his name is Jeff Hopman. Yeah, we didn't say his name. That's funny. Jeff Hopman. So we're talking Blue Jays, Jeff Hopman. He's got a five five, but it's funny. All his peripheral stats are the same. They always are. He just got unlucky

a couple of times and he just relies on a slider and leans on that. But that's the interesting thing about the guys like that. Longevity wise, usually they're a little harder to predict than the guy like Jason Adam because Jason Adam's showing us in the numbers how he makes adjustments. Someone relies on an elite pitch. What happens when that age starts to make that pitch a little bit less elite? How do they adjust?

We don't know until it happens. So the risk is seen, I think they're seen a little bit more risky, or they should be, in my opinion, which I don't think they are. I think they're still seen, I think they still get more leeway. They get paid more than a guy like Jason Adam would get paid, which is an interesting kind of thing

that's happening here. But Jeff Hoffman's been very, very good too. He's not as good overall, maybe a slightly higher strikeout rate than Jason Adam, but everything else is pretty at par or slightly worse. I think he represents that side of things that like I have this really, really nasty pitch. I am developing everything else around it,

so I have wrinkles in there, but I know that's my nastiest pitch. I think those guys can get pigeonholed, at least in terms of hitters getting ready to face them. It's much easier probably to prepare for Jeff Hoffman than it is to prepare for Jeff Hoffman than it is to prepare for Jason Adam, but they're still both really effective

and really good pitchers. It's just how do you go about it? It might surprise people that probably Ryan Halsley is a little bit like this. He does throw 100, but it's his slider that gets the good grades. Duran is actually like this, because John Duran's fastball's a little bit

not the best shape because it's kind of sinkerish, you know? And so Duran's actually like this because John Duran's fastball is a little bit not the best shape because it's kind of sinker-ish, you know And so Duran's a little bit, Yumi Garcia is a little bit like this, but his fore seam has good shape Amir Riebe might be a little bit like this. This is an interesting transition because Jeff Hoffman used to be a starter and He is so lights out as a reliever just to place him on that group he was he was top 20 in war in the last four years and he's been so good. You said you saw a potential starter that and we're not saying that he has to be a future reliever but if he did become a reliever maybe he could have that same kind of categorical juice.

Cade Horton's he's an out outlier pitch. His four seam quotations, he just throws a slider for a fastball. And it is, I mean if you get it under command, it's one of those pitches that you don't see from anyone else, except for Brian Shaw who keeps just appearing, because he's trying to throw a thousand times, a thousand games.

He throws this like natural natural underneath supinated spin like cutter spin forcing fastball that is like one of those type of pitches that if you, because he throws 94, 95 now, if he was throwing at 98, 99, like it's up there with Claus' cutter. Like that is filthy. So it's just kind of an outlier pitch

that sometimes when there's an outlier pitch that projects to be a relief pitcher success right away because VLU usually comes, especially for guys who already throw pretty hard. He doesn't really have a large arsenal when it comes to other plus pitches. That is one of the interesting ones. I've also had questions about why that pitch doesn't rate better on Stuff Plus. You mentioned some of the biomechanical aspects of that pitch that are not included in Stuff Plus.

So perhaps there are aspects of the way he releases it that make it surprising. But if you look at it in a vacuum as just a collection of velocities and numbers, there are other pitches like this and in fact, they come from the Cubs. I mean, in essence, he's a little bit like the Justin Steele foreseam, reversed on the right-hander. And so, this isn't a pitch at 94 that the model says, I've never seen anything like this and I can't deal with this. It's more like, oh, this is a little bit like other people's cutters. It's a little bit like this. I don't know. It doesn't say it's really a great pitch right now. I know that's hard to square with some of the pitching ninja stuff.

You'll see on how it looks. But I do agree that if that was at 99, he would fit right in with Emmanuel Classe, Camilo Deval. And then my favorite starter conversion, you just mentioned him, is Graham Ashcraft. He's got that cutter, you know, cutter slider mix that we've seen from Klasay, that we've seen from Doval. And I just wanted to point out that if you look at the last 30 days, this is the last 30 days stuff plus, and I'm not doing this because like, oh, they made a tweak or we're just like, no, in the last 30

days, he's become a reliever. You know, beginning year he was a reliever last 30 days if you look at it Ashcraft is throwing a harder he's become a reliever he's had that reliever mentality starting to really set into being a reliever so this is the best stuff plus over the last 30 days you see if Graham Ashcraft there at fourth Helsley still still near the top, Mason Miller, Brendan Little, a lot of the guys we've been mentioning are up here. And so I think this just captures what he can be like as a reliever. And so when you see a starter change to a reliever, I think capturing short sample stuff plus sometimes can really point out that this is going to be a big change for them. Ashcraft is my favorite for saves in

Cincinnati going forward. Now, if this is going to happen this year, maybe not, maybe Pagan just dances that dance all the way to the end of the season and I'm wrong, but he is my favorite reliever in that bullpen because he's going to, he's going to avoid homers in a way that Pagan doesn't. And that's going to be important in Cincinnati. And he's also, over this time period, got a 10 strikeouts per nine number that he never had before. So this is Graham Ashcraft in the first three innings as a starter. And we always knew that was good.

So I think you have to keep an eye out for guys who are starters right now if it is a Kate Horton or whatever Stars right now that kind of make that transition they can be Hoffman, you know, they can be really good Relievers in the short term you wanted to to highlight somebody else going forward Yeah So moving forward if we want to predict a guy, maybe give him, if he added one thing that is almost a certain foregone conclusion, my opinion is Jeremiah Estrada with San Diego. I just checked on Savant, what his,

the inches, the gravity affects his fastball. It's a 7.6, which I've never seen anything that high. I went and looked on True Media. His average IVB is 21.4. That's the highest I've ever, I don't think I've ever seen anyone do it for even two months. So that might be the highest IVB of any pitcher.

He was second in the league last year behind Vesya. I think he is now the highest this year and he's throwing high 90s. So he has this straight over the top motion too. So it looks like it's gonna ride and then it rides more. Like that's as close to we get to an actual rise ball that exists. But then it comes down to his off speed pitches.

He throws a splitter in quotations, which is like a kind of a Vulcan change up. He splits the middle two fingers, goes deep with it, and it kind of fades a lot more with his motion. It looks like it should go straight down and because it doesn't go straight down, he gets weird swings at it and misses at it. And the V-Low is lower than you would expect as well.

It's like a fork ball, like low 80s speed. So like that is his, it's weird though, it's not a movement thing, it's weird. And then he throws a like a look. I've heard it called a chitter because it's almost like a cutter too. Yeah, it's sometimes, because he gets that fork ball like weird spin sometimes so it goes the other way.

It's a slow spinning pitch, it's weird, but like in a vacuum, doesn't move a ton and doesn't have a lot of depth to really counteract his foreseam as much. So he has to like, he can leave it up sometimes and it gets got, if he's in the top of the zone with his foreseam. And then he's got a little cutter slider thing.

It's like rokey slider. It's not really the weapon. Yeah, it's a gyro and an 89. It doesn't really stand out, but I think the step forward for him will just be feel on that splitter. I mean, we're talking about year two of it basically. And I don't know that he needs a step forward necessarily. I mean, he's kept his Yare under three, two straight years. He's been a great setup man. But I think just a little bit more advanced feel on that. And I do think that this could be somebody who has staying power.

And I think that, you know, he's sitting 98, so this is somebody that somebody would sign as a closer, I believe. If you learn like the Jason Adam, Def Gyro, or honestly, Helsley, if he did the Helsley thing, he would be, he's a closer. Like, because the Headman Helsley throw straight over the top and have crazy ride.

If he could just have something that went straight down the opposite of his fore seam, just a little bit. Like not, he doesn't need to be crazy, just opposite of the movement. Then he's got three weapons, then he's a closer. Maybe interesting to like try a power curve with him. Yeah, or a power curve or whatever. Whatever is easier.

Yeah, like a, you know, something that has a little bit more movement than the one he's got. But judging by his slider, it's probably not something he's probably tried a lot of stuff and probably hasn't found anything that stuff yet Would be my guess. I just want to see the Estrada split. Let's see. Let's see it I don't want to see it. You got a video of it. Looks like a seam shift to change up It's just slow. It's a slow one So it's not a power change up, but it moves like a power change up, which is weird because no don't really does that I just don't know how

Long that is gonna be weird. Yeah, will people start to pick it up? Pick it up a little bit because it's not moving, it's really not moving a ton. It's got some fade, no depth. It stays up, it carries a little bit, just kind of fades off to the right, which is weird, especially with his fastball.

Hopefully that's not a one trick out pony because his slider is not an out pitch. He has no strikeouts on his slider. Or is one, I think, looking, but there's no swing and miss on it. So it's that or learn something that's a power curve or some sort of hard slider that's all depth and figure that out. That probably is the next step. That is probably the next thing he tries. My favorite guy doesn't need anything. Randy Rodriguez, I think is the secret to why the Giants bullpen has been, as I've predicted, the best bullpen in baseball.

And one of the reasons is it's slightly different than Estrada. So Estrada, like you mentioned, is way over the top and has that ton of ride. There are other guys, like Randy Rodriguez, he gets eight, he gets eighteens. Now you're just saying Estrada gets 20s. That's better, right? 20s bigger than 18. However, Estrada's arm angle is 66 degrees. Randy's is 39. And so you see the 39 and you'd expect less. So this is thanks to Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboards. this is the extra inches over dead zone on the fastball. This is the leaderboard with no minimums.

So Roldis Chapman on his fore seam gets more, he gets four inches more movement than you'd expect given his arm slot. Randy Rodriguez is right there with 3.5. The last is not on here, but Randy Rodriguez is a high 90s guy too. Mason Montgomery, a guy we love. Also in Tampa, David Bednar. The fastball is not the problem. It's the command of the secondary stuff.

Jeff Hoffman is on here. Hunter Green. Mick Abel is one of the reasons why Stuff Plus loved his debut and why I picked him up wherever I could even though he went back down. I'm going to try and hold on to him because I think he's going to be good, maybe better than painter. Robert Suarez is four same is out here, surprising. I think he has that that sinker ish arm slot.

Nick Enright, Jacob Latz, and then Jordan Leisure, who is one of my picks to click will finish with some maybe some pitches you need to know at the end. But that's my that's my little spiel for Randy Rodriguez. I think he's already doing everything he needs to do. I don't know that he needs to do much else. He's an uncomplicated fastball slider guy, but he's got a 40% strikeout rate right now and a 3% walk rate sitting 97. I think the only question about him and his future is, you know, I actually think he could even get saved this year because Deval, his stuff is not what it used to be and he's not going to get the strikeouts you expect from a closer. So if he starts, you know, allowing hits and play, they could move on to Randy Rodriguez. The only question going forward, if it's not this year,

is what does the velocity, how does the velocity age and what does that velocity look like when he becomes a free agent? Because he could be just somebody that just loses a little bit, loses a little bit, and then by the time he's a free agent, he's 95, 96, and it all doesn't look quite as good. Because I do think this plays better when you're only fastball slider. He doesn't have any extra tricks. he doesn't have the four pitches he doesn't it's just a fastball slider but it's really good and it's unexpected movement so I wanted to highlight somebody that I think could close for

the end probably for the Giants I don't know if he'll be on the four-year leaderboard but probably if it ain't broke don't fix it until a certain point I think it's interesting the balance between like trying to future proof somebody yeah and andproof somebody or just riding with it and keeping it simple. I think that's the crux of really good coaches. They know if the guy wants to be future-proofed or needs to just be left alone, those are the best guys that do that.

He's probably a guy who's like, hey, if stuff starts to go wrong or he's not feeling good about it and we need another option Maybe this is a guy we go to or maybe this is something we try same thing with Estrada Is he gonna start thinking we need more strikeout or we need something from him because sometimes guys react that way like why are You telling me to do this everything's going well They need a problem to solve and when there's no problem, let's not solve it. I was the guy who was trying to solve problems before they were there and that was just the way I was.

So it's one of those things. But my last guy I'll touch on real quick before we get out of here because he's very similar to Hoffman. That's Will Vest with the Tigers, hard thrower, maybe not movement profile as much but in terms of his personal and how he uses them, it's forcing fastball, 96.9,

I believe is his average this year. He tries to elevate his own, but he's a little bit actually more in the middle of the zone, so that's a little bit concerning. But he does throw up in the zone, and then he's got a wipe out two plane slider that he loves to throw, and then he uses his change up to lefties and his sinkers to righties,

and uses that kind of as an option. He's got no strikeouts on change ups, he's got two looking on sinkers that were just down the zone. The guys took thinking there were four seams, because it's not a great sinker. It just runs a little bit. And then the slider and the four seam get all the whiffs. So I think he's got, I think it's almost 50-50 with the rest of the strikeouts there.

And he functions those off. But he has four pitches that you have to think about. And especially based on if you're left or you're right, now there's the three pitch mix that you have to be caught up with. Especially if he uses those other things earlier in counts, which mix that you have to be caught up with, especially if he uses those other things earlier in counts, which he tends to do to get the contact if it's gonna happen, if he gets ahead of you with him. He's got good command of him, throws him for strikes, so that's really all he needs, and then he relies on

the other ones, but he's a little bit more of a trying to, again, point towards that slider. I would say his foreseen probably is more of his outpitch because he throws it, I think it's 53% of the time, it's like a 53, 18 and then like six and five or something. So fastball, he's feeling really good about his fastball, he had a 15 run value on it last year. So he's just one of those like, no one can hit my fastball, I'm gonna keep throwing that,

but he has that slider to go to if that becomes an issue. So watch those two usages switch before any other pitches get introduced, which means I think that's, that's a sustainable future proofing of how he's going to move forward. I feel like staying healthy and being able to command his stuff. He's going to be, he's going to have success in that role. Yeah. He reminds me a little bit of the, the Griffin Jacks,

Jason Adam grouping where it's four pitches, good command. You know, one thing that maybe sets them apart from that group, maybe, maybe do Jack Jackson's like this. He's added Velo every year. So he came up at 93.8, then he was 95s in 22 and 23, 96 last year, 97.1 this year. Maybe closing's the thing. He's an adrenaline guy. Yeah, it's not a trend that you would necessarily project to continue but if he remains at 96 plus, he's a guy that I think could be on the last four-year list and the next four-year list just because I think the

floor seems really high on this. Even if he doesn't necessarily close a ton, I think he will finish this year with more saves than Connolly because he's got more use cases. It's a little bit easier to put him in. I think with Connoley, there's times where you're like, oh, we can't put him in against these guys, can't put him in against these guys. Throws 80% change ups, you know. Didn't wanna finish just with a little bit of bonus. I call this the bonus round.

These are just pitches, pitches to click, pitches you need to know about. I queued up a couple of them. Here is Brendan Little's curve ball. Now remember, he's on the list. He could throw more in the zone, but this is a nasty pitch, and this is the basis of how he could be a closer

in the future. He threw three of those at bat too. I watched that live. 88 miles an hour. He's, for down at the tee saw three of those in a row. You know, it's 88 miles an hour. It was two oh, and then he threw three of those. And he swung it.

Yeah. 88 though, I don't know how he does it. It's a true knuckle curve, like tumbling curveball at 88 miles an hour. There's only one guy I ever saw who could throw a curveball that hard and it was only for about a year. Tyler Duffy did it for a while. Where he was throwing 86, 87.

Craig Kimral is a guy I think of. But I don't know if it's. Oh, Kimral too. But Kimral was more maybe 85, 86, but it was. And then Lance McCullers when he was healthy. Those are the hardest knuckle curves I can think of. But yeah, neither one of them was 88. So that's, that is just a stanky.

This next one Avenue Rebase slider has somewhat similar movement and similar velocity, but it's called a slider. Again, 87 two plane movement. That's really nasty. This one is just a great, I think it's a great pitch. This one I'm not so sure about. I got a text from Jed Lowry actually about this guy.

Here is Carlos Vargas' sinker. That looked a little bit like a splitter. Yeah. It's a heavy sinker. He just has no command. He has no command. Also, when I did a search, I found three swinging misses, three swings and misses on a sinker all year.

And that's 97 with really good sink, it looks nasty to the eye. Jed's texted me, who's this guy? So I can't say that I definitively love him, but I do think I love him in this role now for Seattle, like getting the ball on the ground, throwing super hard, setting up, bring him in getting the ball on the ground, throwing super hard, you know, setting up, bring him in with traffic on on the seventh. Hopefully he doesn't create

more traffic with walks, but that's sort of, he's a really good role player right now. It's a pitch that you should know about. Did you have any pitches you wanted to throw on the Barbie? I mean, the Vargas one was, I'll just call out the last one we have here because he's a guy I was paying attention to in spring training and that's leisure. It's in his fastball. He's got he's a really interesting guy as well There's some Chicago guys that are kind of Kind of interesting I could just tell based on how that moved a supinated Release and he keeps like his arm super close to his body the whole time

So it's like all very like all it feels like a cutter. So he's that swing of it's a very little It'll just tie you up. So I have a feeling when he goes, and I'm just, this is a extrapolating guess, but based on how he releases the ball, when I saw when he throws up and away to O'Reilly, it probably looks like a little bit of a cutter. When he throws up and in,

it probably fades a little bit towards them. So he like stays out of, it moves away from the middle of the zone both places. Spencer Strider has that also which baby He's a little more true, but like that. I mean 97 little perceived cut Maybe if it's more true, but it looks like a cutter based on your arm motion that place that that's a type of fastball You can throw a lot and get a lot of swing this on if you're looking at stuff less You're wondering why he doesn't rate better. It's because the breaking ball is just not very highly rated

I think it's a fairly boring gyro with I mean, it's got a little bit of sideways movement, but at 87.7, it's just, doesn't make the case for itself. He's been, he's thrown a couple splitters. If Jordan Leisure is going to be the next guy, and I think he has the fastball to do it. That's a fastball that has right over expected over dead zone. It also has less cut like we've been talking about. I think he needs a secondary. I think there needs to be a tweak there. And the good news I think though is that he can spin a slider. He spun a slider. So the question is, can somebody come to him and be like, hey, let's throw a sweeper. Like what if you threw a sweeper off that or let's throw a death ball. You know, let's throw a power

curve. We'll see what that looks like. I do think that he has the ability to do it. I do think he's maybe one tweak away from, from it being the next closer, but still a fast ball. You should know about where I see if she's changed up to actually don't know if he does or not. I tell every supernator just seems to have that change up. It says split. Yeah, maybe, maybe a change up is the way, but keep an eye on him because in that bullpen, there isn't really anybody who's stepping forward.

Camp Boozer's been pretty good, but I don't know that right now I think it's anybody's game to be closer in Chicago right now. And they're getting a little bit better. They're not as bad as the Rockies, not as bad as the White Sox last year. So they're going to at some point identify a closer that might be their closer for two or three years. So you think about like Kyle Finnegan on the Nationals, he's had value to people. He's been a good closer. He may not have been a closer for a lot of other teams, but he was in the right place at the right time. I can't believe they DFA'd him and then re-signed him and he's their closer again.

For cheaper. Yeah. That's kind of a d*** move. Df8 him and then re-signed him and he's their closer keeper I mean it was one of those things where they weren't planning on doing that it just the opportunity to present itself I guess they probably just let him go and then he's like well Oh, I didn't know you had that. Anyway, we hope you enjoyed our reliever bonanza. Thank you so much, Trevor May, for being a part of this. Thanks to everybody who listens, especially if you like the video on YouTube or join our Discord. The entry to the Discord is on the show notes, and we really appreciate your listenership.

Thanks to you, Trevor May, Derek Van Ryp, please come back. Please come back, he's coming back, don't worry guys, he's coming back. Thanks for listening. DVR, please come back.