Rates & Barrels - Rendon, Bumgarner & Kluber Change Zip Codes

Episode Date: December 18, 2019

Rundown5:32 Anthony Rendon Chooses the Halos9:51 An Optimistic Projection for Andrew Heaney14:04 Corey Kluber: Texas Ranger21:15 The D-backs Add Madison Bumgarner26:22 Avisaíl Garcia to the Brewers31:33 Competition for Free Agents is Fun39:03 Projecting Josh Lindblom's 202044:39 How Does Yoshi Tsutsugo Fit in Tampa Bay?52:03 Miley, Porcello and Wacha on the Move60:30 Cheap Speed in BostonFollow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @derekvanriperShow E-Mail: [e-mail] Get 40% off a subscription to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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That's December 31st, 2019. So make your move quick and score last-minute tickets. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode number 58. A lot of controversy about which episode number this is. We have decided it is episode 58. A lot of controversy about which episode number this is. We have decided it is episode 58. Lots to talk about on this episode. After we hung up the phone on our last podcast, Anthony Rendon decided to join the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I can't say it any other way. There was an interesting swap made in the last week between Texas and Cleveland. Mad Bum got further away from the ocean.

He's still going to maintain his rivalry with Max Muncy, so we'll talk about that and lots of other moves as well. Quick programming note, we are available on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, pretty much anywhere you want to listen to podcasts. So if you're enjoying this show on a platform that allows you

to rate and review it, please leave us a nice rating and review we would greatly appreciate that for those of you listening to the show for the first time or maybe you just picked up the show in the last couple episodes if you don't already have a subscription to the athletic you can get one with a 40 discount at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels everything we do is included with a subscription. So this winter has been fun so far, you know, and the latest twist in turn was a on fire garbage truck in the intersection right outside my window earlier today. Fortunately, fire has been put out and order has been restored just outside my window. But I have to imagine that is not a good omen.

No, it actually was a visual representation of the state I was in the last time we did a podcast. It was a slightly mobile trash fire. Yeah, you sounded a little bit beat up. San Diego is a lovely town, and it's always going to stretch me to my limit when it comes to how i how i personally do the winter meetings which i treat as a great time to network or another way of saying it hang out in the bar and have awesome conversations about baseball

but uh you know that goes on till 3 a.m and you have to roll out of bed and get on the radio and But, you know, that goes on until 3 a.m. and you have to roll out of bed and get on the radio and get writing. Actually, the hardest thing to do at the end of meetings is write. And it's not only because, you know, things are coming at you left and right. It's just that you're also having meetings with a live audience that was heckling me um and then uh on uh sunday when bum garner signed uh from a kids gym uh party i was in the in in the bathroom in a stall on my phone. So I think I can now call myself a real journalist. You can.

And we can move on to the analysis portion of this podcast, I guess. I think I've realized I need to step up my game in terms of my willingness to do work in very uncomfortable locations. in terms of my willingness to do work in very uncomfortable locations. I had Dan Kurtz, who started MyKBO on the Brewer Show, Section 422. We were talking about Josh Lindblom, which we'll talk about a bit on this show. He's got three kids, and he said, I had to go in the bathroom and close the door because my kids will be noisy and trying to play with me throughout this guest spot. I had a guest, Adam Rigg, on the same show a few weeks ago. He jumped on as a guest.

I could hear some background noise. I was like, where are you recording this from? Oh, yeah. I'm in a bathroom. I'm downtown Milwaukee. I ordered a bar for a function. Like, oh. I would never get a public restroom thing to record a podcast. I appreciate the dedication that other people have, and I apparently don't. Things get hectic. Things get hectic, especially with kids.

Yeah, you're more likely to end up, you know, typing with two thumbs on a phone. Oh, my God, that was not easy. But, you know, you do what you have to do. It's the only room in the house where a young man can have privacy and decode, as a real Christmas story tells us, right? That's where he cracks the little orphan Annie code.

Let's talk about the Anthony Rendon sign. He chooses the angels over the Dodgers and the Rangers and I'm sure there were a few other suitors in there as well. It's kind of an interesting thing. He's one of those guys who doesn't like to talk to people very much, at least doesn't like to talk to reporters

very much. But this is an interesting thing because the Angels are making the team around Mike Trout better. And Anthony Rendon is on that short list of position players that deserves the massive payday that he is getting. And I think he can

be the kind of guy that gives them enough of a boost to where even if they don't do a lot more to fix the pitching, they're a threat to win an AL wildcard. But I think they've got an outside shot with the right additional moves to go with Rendon to kind of chase the Astros a bit

in the AL West. Yeah, I have a little piece going up tomorrow just about the biggest remaining holes and what people should do about it. And I think what we can sort of read from, you know, the unwillingness of the Angels to throw down on the pitching that has gone so far is that maybe they don't want to go the amount of years that other teams want to and frankly for me steven strasburg

was too many years uh at seven and with tommy john already on his elbow uh eight years for cole is amazing but you know he he's more of a the perfect pitcher type scenario um and uh you know, he, he's more of a, uh, the perfect pitcher type scenario. Um, and, uh, you know, for bum Garner five years, given some of his declining peripherals, we'll get to that, but I could see them saying, you know, at four or five or whatever we're in on these guys, but at eight and at seven. So I put them in Hunjin Ryu pants for four years because I feel like maybe they'll go to the higher average annual value for a pitcher if it's a shorter deal. And I don't think Ryu is going to get much of a longer deal like other guys because of his health issues. maybe another reliever in that bullpen. And it's just a little bit of pitching variance away, I think, from joining or from winning the division. So, you know, I think Rendon, if I had been the Nationals,

I would have picked Rendon over Strasburg in a second. I'm a little surprised they didn't. And one of the things that stands out to me about Rondon is he's just been the dude every year like he's super metronome he is he's like you know yeah okay when he first came up to the big leagues he didn't just hit the ground running but even that year you know 265 seven homers and about a half a year you know that, that wasn't a great year, but it was fine. And look back at his college. He was like one of the best college hitters of all time.

His sophomore year at Rice, he hit 394 with 26 homers in 226 at-bats. It's crazy. It's crazy good. I mean, he just obliterated college. He had in college, he had I would say, I'm just sort of looking at numbers, almost four times as many walks as strikeouts.

Yeah, and he's, that play discipline has been there from day one in the big leagues. He's walked a little bit more as he's been at the level, but the low K rate, he's always had a strikeout rate under 20%. The last three seasons have been in the 13% range. He is,

as you said, like a metronome. And I think the angels are gonna be happy with him longterm. I just think this is a good longterm signing because you probably get several five plus win seasons out of him. And again, the, the desire to win a title with mike trout is

it's apparent like they are they're spending now i think the reu fit uh could definitely be a good one maybe they do a combination where it's you know reu and one more guy i don't know dallas keiko or something along those lines that could be uh one way to go about it maybe they see themselves good enough with one addition to go ahead and then just make a trade midseason for the other pitcher at that time. But I do like some of the things they're doing. And I saw something weird with the projections. Well, I thought it was weird anyway.

Andrew Heaney's projection, and again, we're only working with Steamer in terms of public-facing projections right now. His projections are really good. 399 ERA, 118 whip, 180 innings. I mean, that's the part where it's the big question mark. If he gets up to 180 innings, things have gone very right for him. But the K rate was up quite a bit in 2019, 28.9%. He's kept the walks in check.

The general assumption is that home runs are going to come down because a more normal baseball will probably come back into play in 2020. So what are your thoughts on Andrew Heaney as a guy whose projection is like a career best sort of projection, at least relative to what we've seen the last two seasons? Yeah, about that, I have no idea. People are asking about the ball and I have no idea. yeah about that i have no idea people are asking about the ball and i have no idea the thing is i think what happened and this is sort of reading between the tea leaves and sort of informed uh guesses from what i know research is still ongoing but what i think happened is that they put 2018 balls in with the 2019 balls when they did the postseason stuff and so if that's the case that doesn't necessarily mean we're going back to 2018

it just meant that in the postseason they were using 2018 balls you know um so i i don't know i just tend to assume there are players that uh that and pitchers and hitters that that were affected disproportionately by the change in ball but but also on a certain level, the rising tide kind of lifts all or drops all boats. So, you know, like I wouldn't worry too hard about it because it's definitely out of your control. In terms of Haney, velocity was up. You know, they predict one of his better home run

per nine totals of his career or of his recent career, which I don't know if that's right or wrong. One of the reasons that he did increase his K rate last year is that he's kind of Sonny Gray-esque in that his fastball doesn't have a great spin efficiency, even though it has a pretty good spin rate. a great spin efficiency, even though it has a pretty good spin rate. And what that means is that he kind of struggles in between maybe having the arm slot of a sinker guy, but having the fastball that might play better high in the zone. So if you actually look, he's sort of creeped higher and higher in the zone year over year. And last year with the best fastball velocity and the most high fastballs of his career, he had the, uh, the best strikeout rate of his career. Um, and, uh, you know, also the most home runs. So I tend to think that, uh, one of those things is wrong in terms of either the innings pitch projection or the home run projection and i might actually be like a little bit

like less excited about haney's year next year than those numbers but i see where they came from and i've been kind of waiting for this uh from haney for a long time so i don't want to i don't want to get off the train just yet in terms of redone redone he probably should do the same thing he always does no matter what park he's in but it is worth pointing out that he will actually uh go to a park that is less friendly to left field um than washington was washington was slightly above average and anaheim is slightly below average for hitters in that regard so you know if he might be as one of the safer hitters in that regard. So, you know, he might be one of the safer hitters if the ball does change

because he's just going to hit 300 and hit 20, 25 homers if it's a dead ball and if it's a more lively ball, he'll hit 30 plus homers. Either way, he's going to be very viable and have a very high floor. And I don't want to overstate

the importance of the park factor situation. Yeah, I do think, yeah, you've pointed this out with the high drive park factors. Nationals Park is one of those places that plays quite a bit more hitter friendly than people realize. So leaving that environment is a bigger drop off. I think that's really important to kind of keep in mind. But his skills do present just a really hot floor. kind of keep in mind, but his skills do present just a really hot floor. Staying in the AL West, the trade that I still can't fully wrap my head around is the one between Cleveland and Texas. Corey Kluber is now a Ranger. Emmanuel Classe and Delano DeShields Jr. went back to Cleveland as

part of that deal. Let's start on the Kluber side first. I mean, last season, he got hit by a comebacker, so he had a fracture in his arm, had an oblique strain. The innings we did see from him were not great, but the velocity really didn't fall off on him at all. And I think there's still quite a bit to like with him. We don't know how the new park in Texas is going to play, but there's a pretty good chance it's going to be a little more friendly to pitchers. And this is an organization that, as we've talked about recently on the show, has generally done well finding and utilizing pitchers on mid-range deals. And with Kluber getting close to the end of that extension he signed in Cleveland a few years ago, he kind of, a weird way fits that bill. What type of 2020 are you expecting from Corey Kluber as he makes the move to Texas? Yeah, I mean, I've been sounding the alarm about his fastball and his fastball velocity going down

and his swing strike rates coming off of the peak in 2017 that he's declining. But for this kind of deal, reliever and Delano DeShields, I feel like this makes it seem like Kluber was a money dump. That's not a substantial return for a pitcher that's only due $18 million a year for the next two years. Coming into last year,

had a sub-3 ERA two straight years and a sub-3-5 ERA for five straight years. So I'm surprised the projection says he's going to have a 4-2 ERA next year. I think probably the park factors in Texas are just a complete unknown, and I would say that they'd most likely play very close to even because they're going to close the door in there. And the, and the,

and the dimensions didn't look the, you know, all that crazy to me. So I think Kluber is probably going to be a decent pickup in Tennessee. I think this would be a great trade for the Rangers. They did. They only gave up a reliever, you know,

who didn't have the big supporters in his previous organization in terms of his makeup. And even though he does have that hot, high 90s cutter, you know, he didn't get strikeouts you'd expect with that kind of stuff. But, you know, he could be Jordan Hicks before Jordan Hicks found that breaking ball and made it all figured and figured it all out so um you know they're just buying a high velocity uh reliever and it you know he may end up closing for them next year at some point because

brad hands stuff is has fallen off so far but still it's just a reliever and what i would consider a fourth outfielder uh for cory kluver so I think the Rangers did well. I think fantasy owners should keep Kluver in sort of the back end of the top 15 and not turf him too hard just yet. You know, the things that went wrong for him last year, I think were all injury related. You know, you mentioned that his fastball velocity wasn't that far off. The things that really went wrong was, you know, he used to be a top tunneler and the tunneling went away.

And he used to be a top tunneler and the tunneling went away and he used to be a top command plus guy. And he's the fifth biggest drop in command plus from 2019, from 2018 to 2019 was Corey Kluvers. So that says to me, the body's not right. And, you know, yes, that's part of how old pitchers get worse, but it's also how a guy can bounce back. You know, he only pitched 35 innings next year. Maybe he's fresh and the body's right to start the year. It looks like, based on the early ADPs, Kluber's about the 26th starting pitcher off the board, right around pick 90. So it sounds like you're willing to take him a little earlier than that.

Push him a little higher and give me a, would you rather? All right, for 2020, Corey Kluber versus Zach Greinke. Yo, I'm a little nervous about Zach Greinke. Dude is going to have to pitch in the American League with AD Pooh fastball. I know he's got elite command. He's got a lot of pitches. But I've been trying to sell sell zach renke in most of my leagues so what's his renke coming in at his adp is about 20 overall spots earlier but among

starters he's going 21st okay so about a five slot difference among pitchers and all right i push clover too hard maybe clover i haven't done my ranks yet but maybe clover will be around 21 22 they seem very that's a very good would you rather you know i don't think i i don't think i'd wait till 26 to get clover but wherever granky is clover is either right ahead of him or right behind him. Here's the other one. How about Trevor Bauer, who the Indians let go via trade back in July? Who do you like better between Bauer and Kluber for this season? There's a bit of a Zach Wheeler versus Madison Bumgarner discussion to be had here, where Bauer has the raw stuff that you look for

and kluber has the intangibles i guess uh or the less tangibles i might go with bauer in the situation though because they're both of them were hurt last year but uh and i don't know if everybody knows this but bauer's uh back was hurt and i think he hurt his calf too um so bauer's hurt but he pitched through it which is useful especially in the deeper leagues and he threw a high velocity fastball through it and he's in the national league so i'm gonna take bauer there the really tricky thing about bauer is that a low to mid four ZRA and kind of an average or slightly worse than average whip is the norm with him. Like that 2018 is such an outlier with the ratios. But last year, those K's were still there.

253 in 213 innings is massive. And that's that's what driving the ADP at this point. Traditionally, I chase strikeouts minus walks. He's just one of those players. I haven't had enough 2020 drafts yet to figure out what I'm going to do in the moment,

but the price seems about right where he's going. Lumped into this tier. Hugh Darvish is in that tier. Noah Sindergaard's kind of in that range. James Paxson. I like Bauer's projection. Bauer's projection is for a 390 ERA with a 1-2 whip,

11 strikeouts per nine. I mean, that's a valuable pitcher. Yeah, that's real nice if he's able to get that, but that's appropriately priced, maybe slightly underpriced if he comes through with that volume of innings because that K rate, that gives him 230. 213 innings in his back and his calf hurt all year? That says something.

It's impressive. Let's move to the Madison Bumgarner, to the D-backs. I don't know. I didn't really expect this to happen. I know it's a place he wanted to pitch, so it's not a complete surprise. But there was definitely this thought in my head that he was going to somehow stay in San Francisco. He would just be a giant forever. And the press conference was today.

It was weird to see him holding the Sedona trim jersey of the D-backs. What do you think about Bumgarner going into Chase Field? It's five years, $85 million. They just got rid of the Grinke contract, which is a lot more in terms of AAV, and they had to eat some of it, only to come around this winter and sign Bumgarner.

Yeah. I mean, I think that they sort of feel like they you know, they might be able to trade Robbie Ray for some prospect capital that they still kind of need even though they've improved their farm system. And they can install this pretty good player with, I think, intangible-based upside

as Robbie Ray's replacement. So even though Robbie Ray was like high-wire act, huge strikeout totals, huge walk totals, and Bumgarner's going to be kind of the opposite of that, they may come out in the end having similar ERAs. It's eye-opening to me to see that Kevin Gossman's projections are better than Madison Bumgarner's. And I'll just have to say that if they both pitched in the same field,

there's no way I would agree with that. Right. But the Bumgarner road splits, and again, road splits for any even multi-year stretch are still noisy. They just jump off the page. How much do you think he was benefiting from pitching in San Francisco? Chase Field with the humidor

is not nearly the hitter-friendly environment it was a couple years ago. The humidor did exactly what it was expected to do by the reasonable measurements. Derek Cardy was out in front of that. He was great about outlining what was likely to happen, and it played out pretty much exactly that way.

My dry park factor said it was slightly pitcher-friendly last year. Right. So this is not nearly as bad as if Bumgarner had been traded to the Diamondbacks five years ago, pre-humidor. It's very different in terms of the environment. What do you think the expectation ratios wise should be does he stay under a four era with a full season where he doesn't make half of his starts in san francisco i don't know man i do think i think he does i don't know what it is you know i don't

think that the state of pitching coaching right now in san francisco i think the state of pitching coaching in arizona and the pitching development program there and the system pitching coaching is uh superior to the one in san francisco right now at the major league level i think the gents are kind of building from the ground up as opposed to like the reds who kind of did the other direction and um i could see him going there and maybe emphasizing the change up a little bit more because i know that uh it's not a great change up but um bum garner is so predictable in terms of where he uses his fastball it's mostly high in the zone that i think the hitters are just starting to like really zone it on you know on the high fastball and that's why the home run rate has gone up along with the kind of

eroding in the, in the fastball velocity. So, uh, you know, he, he's thrown the change up enough to have some fuel for it. And if he then becomes more of a four pitch pitcher, uh, and has another adds another wrinkle, um, I could see, you know, I could see this see this uh i could see him kind of i don't see him getting better necessarily especially not in terms of true talent but i could see him trending water and kind of having like a high three zra for four or five years i mean he's just such a competitor and he is you know for all his faults in terms of red or red assery like he is uh in in when it comes coaching very coachable and he does talk to people about his craft and he does really investigate his craft so um you know and

there's a baseline of really good command here so i think that uh he's going to continue to kind of be a little better than people expect um and i just think it's funny that, you know, he got what he got and, and Zach Wheeler got almost $40 million more. Yeah, that is a pretty surprising. Cause as we talked about last week, you are buying into the expectation that the adjustment will take that elevating the fastball is something that Wheeler can do and will do

consistently with bum Garner. You know, there's a good floor there already, and maybe there's more there than people realize once you start making some tweaks to that pitch mix and maybe finding some different ways to utilize what he brings to the table than what the Giants were doing the last couple of seasons. We've moved on to the Eno's favorite guys portion of the show.

Avi Sayil Garcia signs with the Brewers, and some people are looking at this and saying, oh, the outfield's too crowded. No, it's not. Braun and Kane especially are old. They need days off. Braun's going to play a little first base. So having four guys that can take up basically four spots

when you're using Braun a little bit at first and making sure you have enough rest for guys that are well past 30 it's all going to be fine i think people don't realize you know garcia is a stat cast darling like when you look at some of the underlying numbers they're really good like they're he and he's he's a much better runner than just about anybody would take him for because when you see him on the field he looks like this big corner guy that can't really move when you see him standing there but then you actually watch him and you look at the numbers and lo and behold he's actually very fast yeah yeah uh last year he's in the top 10 of the league this year he's you know this last you know 2018 he was in the top 10 of the league with sprint speed This year, he's a little bit closer to the top 15%,

just with one sort of tick off. But in terms of, if you look at barrel rate, sprint speed, and throwing arm, just kind of three core athletic, directly measurable components, he's one of the five or six players in the league that's top 15% in all of them. You know, he's got a lot in common with like a Shohei Watani, you know, Trevor Story, Cody Bellinger. These are the guys who can throw the ball hard, hit the ball hard and run real fast. The only thing that's missing for Garcia, I think, is some of the kind of heaviness component. You know, despite all his

speed, he's a negative base runner for his career. Despite all his speed, he's a negative defender for his career. Despite all his power, his career ISO is 155. But, you know, the Rays managed to coax one of his better ground ball per fly ball rates of his career. You know, the last two years he's hit more fly balls than he did early in his career. And that's led to kind of unpacking some of the goodness that's in there. I think that, you know, his projection for basically being a league average player with a bat and being a poor defender, I would kind of bet over that. with a bat and being a poor defender um i would i would kind of bet over that i would bet for you know 280 um 25 homers in like two-thirds playing time um and uh and for this to be a

decent contract uh for the brewers and you know part of it is you know put brian braun at first base ron braun is even more of a a problem in the outfield than Garcia and put Braun at first base and find maybe a lefty swinging backup first baseman, like a Yonder Alonzo type that doesn't cost but a penny in relative terms. And, you know, find a way to kind of get your offense back. Uh, you know, even though you're kind of piecing together in different places, I just,

they're the brewers on the whole, on my list of worst holes tomorrow. Um, because their third base situation is just untenable. That's they've got the worst third base projected third base, uh, situation in baseball. And I,

I just kind of feel pessimistic that they're going to get donaldson yeah donaldson doesn't make sense either when you start looking at how right-handed the lineup has become yeah it's interesting to see how how important that'll be to the brewers i do think that they you know have some semi-platoons going right now in terms of kind of what happens behind Garcia and what happens at first base. And you can only really afford to kind of have two platoons on the field in perpetuity kind of. So I think it might be better to get the switch hitter or just to get an established lefty hitter. In any case, I think the Garcia fit is fine. Two years, $10 million, not going to be risky for anyone. I do think that it's a little bit sad that the Brewers,

it looks to me like they'll miss out on an elite-level free agent because they seem like the kind of team that could take that and take it really far. Yet they are a team that makes sure they have no holes and kind of pieces together and gets offense where they need it and where it's cheap and defense where it's cheap you know so they they've found ways to kind of piece together uh but at the same time like if you just took josh donaldson put him on that team and you feel like that could make them the favorites in the division almost yeah travis sacek had had that piece at 538 two weeks ago,

and it ran a bunch of simulations looking at what would happen if the mega free agents went to various teams. And yeah, the Brewers, I think it was like Brewers with Anthony Rendon was the most impactful in terms of the number of times it put them in the playoffs per thousand simulations, I think was the way it ran. But it was just really interesting to see that they needed that star power. But the hard thing is other teams want those players.

Unlike the last couple of winters where we had to wait a long time for there to be movement with the top-end guys, there's seemingly multiple teams in on just about everybody and that's pushing things up for the top end free agent it's been a great year to be a free agent yeah i think it's a two-parter part part is that the biggest teams the biggest spending teams um you know took a couple years off in order to reset their tax penalties and they were able to jump back in this year so that's how the garrett cole signing even happens because the yankees are there then i think that the astros losing and then losing cole kind of made people feel like there are cracks in the foundation

altube is only getting older they lost a big part of their starting rotation. The Astros are gettable. And maybe they're about to get hit by some serious suspensions. And the Astros are gettable. And the Rays just do their thing every year. The Red Sox are taking a step back. The other team that's kind of the super team that might make people not spend is the Yankees i think they seem like to me probably the favorites uh for the for the world series going into next year and um they they can affect their

little their little the al east but they're not going to necessarily affect uh the entire american league the same way and um rays are going to continue to try and win on you know four dollars they've got in their pocket so uh you know that's they're not going to care if the yankees are good or bad they're just going to always try to be good uh on their budget so uh i think that that's has to do with like you know just like who is ready to compete and who thinks they can get there and whose whose teams are okay and then also the fact that the yankees and dodgers and red socks or not the red socks the yankees dodgers and um a few other teams kind of reset their tax penalties and were ready to spend i'm a little surprised that dodgers haven't taken advantage of resetting their tax penalties

but i have a feeling that they were bridesmaids on a few of these deals and were in on them until the end. I just know there are some fan bases that are getting really frustrated about the lack of activity from their teams. I think Brewers fans are starting to cool off a little bit because there have been some moves now in the last week or so. We'll talk about Josh Lindblom and Brett Anderson and in just a moment but like the twins i mean if you look at what's happening in minnesota right now like they're always on that list i see every time i see uh ken rosenthal write up a piece about josh donaldson you do see the twins included in the list of possible suitors but that's after you know the nationals and the rangers and the other teams that missed out on Anthony Rendon.

So even if the Twins are trying to spend the money, even if they're trying to make that move, they might not get their guy, and they may have to go to that plan B or the plan C. And I think what we're going to see is a fairly healthy trade environment in the next month or so. Because, you know, when I looked,

I was surprised when I looked at the top two-thirds of teams by the depth charts which i think is a kind of a loose rubric for contenders you know the bottom of the top two-thirds is still within variance of of making a wild card when i looked at the top two-thirds of teams there were i don't know five or six positions in the depth charts that had fewer than one win projected. And that says to me, like, those are holes, you know? And those are teams that want to win next year, and they still have holes. And they're kind of glaring,

like the Brewers' third base situation. So I think that, you know, now that the only real impact reagents left are Ryu, Keuchel, and Donaldson, maybe you can put Harris in there, then the teams that don't get those guys are going to be in the trade market. And if you think about how the Brewers work a lot, a lot of their shrewdest moves have been trades. So I wouldn't be surprised if the capper for their offseason is a trade. so I wouldn't be surprised if the capper for their offseason is a trade. Yeah, to fill the third base void that way,

maybe to clear up a little bit of the logjam in the outfield. I just don't know. Of those outfielders, unless somebody, I don't think they would trade away Lorenzo Kane. They value his defense, and when you start looking at how they're built, he had a down year last year because he played hurt almost start to finish last season. So he might not be a five- win player like he was two years ago. He's probably a two and a half or three win guy.

Like that's that's a big jump from what he was in 2019. I think other teams are going to if they want to talk to them about Kane are going to want to talk as if it's a salary dump. And as we're seeing, there's been a clear difference between acquiring a player you really want and a salary dump in this offseason that's why i said the cory kluber thing the return suggests that was a salary dump you know you look at the kozar deal clear salary dump so salary dumps are a lot harder to pull off that was one of the things that that uh a front office executive told me when i did my sort of off-the-record roundup this year. He said salary dumps are a lot harder.

Everybody wants financial flexibility. Nobody wants to take on your bad money. And those deals, I would bet against those deals happening. So I would bet against Lorenzo Cain happening because I think too many teams would see it as an underwater contract or just too much money for that type of player. So, yeah, I think that the outfield is is set and it's all about third base from them at this point.

I don't even know if they'll get another pitcher. Maybe they'll get one more pitcher, but I think, you know, having Peralta and Burns as your sixth and seventh pitcher on the depth charts suggests to me that like, Hey, if they take that extra step and figure something out,

there's still room for them to, to, to take eric lauer's job you know what i mean like eric lauer is not standing anybody's way but we're not going to go into the season depending on freddie peralto and cory burns anymore no i mean and i realize general managers are basically politicians when they waste the media the way david stearns has been talking about the pitching staff i kind of get that sense they're done with big moves unless something unexpected comes along.

I mean, the Josh Hader trade rumors have been kind of simmering on the back burner for a week or so now. I can't even wrap my head around what a trade would look like. I think it would have to be a three-team trade where they give Hayter to another contender and then just some prospects get moved around and then a rebuilding team gives the Brewers what they need. The Brewers need Hayter. Their window is now.

That's the thing that I come back to. Yeah, if they're serious about contending this year and next, you keep them and then maybe you trade them in the year or two prior to free agency. Maybe that's the way to actually make it work. Josh Lindblom, Brett Anderson were the two additions. Lindblom, of course, had a ton of success in Korea. Anderson had a really nice year in Oakland last year. I know he's a guy that I'm sure you saw at least a couple of times up close. I've always liked him. I just think it's health that constantly

betrays him. There's definitely some variance in terms of just how much he'll be out there. The bigger question of those two is Josh Lindblom. He's got this splitter. He didn't have that before. How do you think he will translate coming back over to the big leagues? His projection is just horrid. I mean, it's just disgusting. 5-4-7 ERA, 1-4-3 whip, 7 strikeouts per 9. I get it. It's calling back to some poor performances in the past.

The last time he was here, he was in AAA, putting up bad numbers. you know it's calling back to some poor performances in the past and you know the last time he was here he was in you know triple a putting up bad numbers but in the meantime he's had one of those sort of pitch mixed you know coming to jesus moments in a way that like you know oh i have a high spin fastball forcing fastball it doesn't it doesn't go real fast, but even a 91-92 at the top of the zone with high spin can be effective. He turfed his two-seam that used to be his main pitch, and he's gone to the four-seam. I think that it's a little bit more of just an unknown. We don't know, I think, what he's going to be like.

I'm trying to see here if there's a Davenport translation for this. Have you looked this up before? I have not looked that up yet. I'm really curious to see. I would just say, and this is not at all to disrespect the Steamer projection system. I don't have a projection system, so I can't really be overly criticalist. I think a projection of a player coming back from the KBO might be the noisiest and worst type of

projection for that system to put out there. Yeah, that could be true. I mean, young players are tough, but I think this is worse because you have this kind of old input where a totally different guy who's had a few years of development

to work as a starter that he wouldn't have had had he stayed. If Josh Lindblom had stayed here the entire time, he almost certainly would have been in relief role, right? Like he wouldn't even be a thought as a starting pitcher. That's the advantage of going overseas is getting that opportunity for extra reps,

at least without having to ride minor league buses to get them. And often, you know, command and confidence are intertwined. And so if you're just getting blown up, you're going to go out of the zone, your walk rates are going to suck, and then you're a reliever or whatever. But, you know, Myles Mikolas, one of the main things he went over there was, he said, well, actually, this was not Mikolas. I was talking to ryan bogusong he said when he went over there um he just realized he had a guy gene strike zone he

had a different strike zone than everybody else was even smaller than everybody else and everybody was you know everything was about the strike zone there and so he's realized you know i need to be in the zone no matter what and it's a little bit easier league so you know boom i'm in the zone i'm winning i get confidence i feel like i can put, I can locate zone. And that's all I do when he came home. Focus on is one of these guys that would throw a, an O2 fastball, you know, in the zone sometimes to get a strikeout. So, you know, there's a confidence factor where you're in a major leagues, you're getting paid pretty well and you're succeeding and you can do things and not really feel like you're in the minor leagues, you're getting paid pretty well, and you're succeeding, and you can do things

and not really feel like you're in the minor leagues. So anyway, I found the Davenport translation, and it's a little bit weirder to look at for pitchers, but I think his net adjusted ERA or something. Anyway, the translated ERAas are in the threes that's really good though yeah looks like uh a 3-0 uh in his really best season which is 27 2018 and then a 3-5-3 in 2019 i could take by the way, there was a large pile of on fire garbage in the intersection just outside my window, no less than five hours ago. So you can, you can get pretty

weird today and it's not going to surprise me after what I've seen, uh, just a few feet away from where I'm recording. He had really excellent command over there. And that's something that I think surprises some when people come back. So what I'm going to do is eight strikeouts per nine and like a two walks per nine instead of three. And I'm going to now look at people who did something like that and get us a little quick comp. So a quick comp might be, I mean, if it's really excellent command, there's Kyle Hendricks, but let's not put him in Kyle Hendricks' boots right away.

Madison Baumgartner shows up as a comp. Masahiro Tanaka a little bit. Joe Musgrove is in that range. Musgrove kind of seems reasonable, right? And yeah, Porcello maybe highlights some of the downside variants that can come with that skill set I mean uh Porcello had a 5-5-2 ERA last year but you know he's more of a 4-5 true talent so um I feel comfortable saying like you know I think my you know my projection would be kind of like a 4-4 ERA. 4-5. All right.

Yeah, it plays in today's game. That's what Tanaka had last year. He had a 4-5 ERA. I think internally, they probably see Lindblom as like a Chase Anderson replacement. They just look at that and say, okay, probably beats the indicators a bit,

has the command, probably gives up his share of home runs, but ends up being pretty good over a nice fight. Chase Anderson had a 4-2 last year. Yeah. If they replaced Chase Anderson for one-third the price,

then for the front office, that's a win. That's the way teams work. That's just how they look at players now. Let's talk about another guy that you really like. You featured him, I think, twice this season

as Prospect of the Week, and that is Yoshi Ts really like. You featured him, I think, twice this season as prospect of the week. And that is Yoshi Setsugo. He goes to the Rays and he's a guy that I thought would have fit well on the Brewers, given that he can play in the outfield, he can play a little first base. I don't think we'll see him play third base for the Rays outside of like a weird blowout scenario where people are hurt. But he has played there, I think, at some point in the past. So this is pretty interesting because he should be a pretty nice impact fantasy guy. Probably big side platoon, doesn't play against lefties, but I get the sense that he's going to

be pretty cheap in a lot of drafts. So how much of an impact do you think Tetsugo is going to make with the bat here with Tampa Bay being his home? My main comp for him was G-Man Choi when I dug in deep. But I suppose there's a little bit of opportunity for slightly better slugging numbers than Choi. But his translated numbers are not that exciting. And so I think that Choi is a decent comp. are not that exciting and so i think the choice a decent comp maybe uh not as rough lefty righty splits for satsugo as choy and so maybe someone they can plug in more on an everyday factor but i think the fact that him and choy are both there points to the fact that there's gonna be more moves to come i don't think this team is done putting their sort of moving their pieces around in fact that's

that's what i've heard and then uh when i asked you know what position he'll play to some i know um they said hitter so i don't think that means designated hitter that just means we've got a hitter and we're going to figure out where it goes and i think that makes sense because yanni diaz is probably a dh uh the large biceps, and they played him at third base a lot last year. So I don't know where exactly he'll end up, but as a lefty, there's definitely a possibility he gets some outfield at-bats alongside Hunter Renfro, who's a righty. And at first base, Nathaniel Lowe or Nate Lro, uh, who's a righty. Um, and at first base,

uh, Nathaniel low or Nate low, whatever. He is a, uh, 24 year old with options remaining. Uh, so I would expect him to kind of have another up and down season,

maybe have fewer plate appearances than people want to give him in projections. I've, I think there's a decent amount of risk there that Lowe is basically replaced by Tsutsugo. And that Lowe comes up if they decide to release Choi or trade him or whatever it is. Choi is just the latest in their list of, I guess, turn first baseman, we'll call them. Every year, find a guy, ditch him, find a guy, ditch him. I kind of assume he's the guy who's out,

but if they were to begin the season like this, there's no guarantee the depth chart would look this way for long. It would lead me to downgrade Nate Lowe. I think he'd be in that spot because he has those options left. His playing time would be the playing time that I'm most worried about. But yeah, you're right. It feels like it's a move or two away from being an opening day ready roster, even though there's plenty of talent on it.

Yeah, there's a little bit of redundancy. And I'm actually in Devils Rejects. I have both Troy and Tsutsugo at the bottom of my keeper roster. And I don't think I want to keep both, so I'm hoping there's a move coming. Try to make a trade. But you look at this team, I mean,

they're in good shape. A healthy Blake Snell, maybe a full season of Glass now. Charlie Morton. I like Yarbrough quite a bit. I think Brendan McKay could make some adjustments. Yanni Chirinos is there. The bullpen's got pretty good depth. They don't really have a lot of weaknesses. They're kind of the opposite of the Brewers

though, where they are that team that looks a little bit too left-handed. Just a little bit more left-handed than you'd maybe want to be. So I am curious to see what exactly it is. Maybe that's why they did the Renfro deal. Yeah, I mean that was righty for righty at least like giving up fam but then getting one back and renfro so uh all right that's

true at least keeping what they had like not getting any more left-handed i think they also i think if they want to really compete next year uh or do any better than they did last year i think they do need someone to step forward and be a star. So I think Choi has shown basically what he can do. I think his peak performance is pretty funny for a guy that looks like him. You know that meme, this is peak performance. You may not like what it looks like, but this is peak performance. So anyway, I think this is peak performance you may not know what you don't like what it looks like but this is peak performance um so anyway i think this is peak performance for gmanchoi two wins uh decent player uh not you know had some scooping ability but not the greatest asset on on defense

um i think that with the tsutsugo by they're saying is like we think we can do a little bit better um and then if low becomes a piece, they trade. That's a really attractive trade. I mean, you said, was it you that said that there's like, that's the one kind of hater deal that might work out? I did not say that, but that's an interesting starting point. Yeah, but, you know, it'd have to be like, what did you do, like low Pagan?

You have to replace h what did you do like low pagan you have to replace here on some level so like low pagan and then more and then are the rays really do they give up prospects like that i don't know i don't think it's uh that doesn't make sense a team that trades for haters not going to send back bullpen arms a team that trades away hater could send back a young you know like starter that doesn't start for them like uh like in the event of the yankees thing like i was thinking about the yankees a lot if the yankees and brewers tried to make a deal would miguel and duhar be part of that because and duhar can play third base or he can eventually take over as the first baseman in milwaukee Another right-handed hitter. I thought maybe him plus Jonathan Loaiziga,

something along those lines started to make sense. Yeah, because Loaiziga is just an extra guy in New York right now. In any case, I do think the Rays are the one thing that speaks in Loaiziga's favor still, even with

Tsutsugo on this team, is that this team will kind of need, they have the kind of no holes approach now where everything's two-bar or better, but there's no current hitter that's projected to be a four- or five-win guy. And I think they kind of need someone like that, at least in a pop-up season, to go as far as they want to go.

For example, Pham was that last year. Meadows projected for 2.8 wins, Willie Adamas 2.8, Brandon Lau 2.8. Those three guys, and Lowe, and maybe Tsutsugo, are the guys that could push this team to new heights if one or two of them becomes a four-win guy. Tsutsugo are the guys that could push this team to new heights if one or two of them becomes like a four-win guy. I think Meadows is the guy

that stays at that four-win level or maybe goes up another notch. Maybe he gets up to five or something. He's probably their best bet among position players to lead the team in war if you had to throw something like that together. Some other signings, some other signings some

pitching signings let's get snap reactions on these wade miley to the reds does that do anything for you other than make you sad about tyler molly maybe getting bumped off the starting five to begin the season you know uh it was nice actually i think to throw some water on uh i guess it's mainly maybe but i think it was nice to maybe throw some water on that because I'm not sure he has an out pitch. He has three or four decent pitches and great command, but obviously something's been missing and it might be that, you know, not a great out pitch. Maley now, you know, there's a little bit less helium behind him, and so he'll be cheaper in drafts. I still think he'll be relevant this year because, this year because your six and seven starters are definitely relevant. And I think he might have an interesting run at some point this year.

Wade Miley obviously has had some health issues. There's other guys on that squad that have had health issues. So I think this is decent. Wade Miley was also tipping his pitches in the second half last year, holding his glove further away from his body on breaking pitches. So I think, you know, that goes to some length to explain how poorly his second half went. And with a cutter like that,

he's going to get some soft contact and beat the projections to an extent. So I do think Miley is going to be better than projections, but also in that weird space where he's going to be better than projections but not really super relevant for fantasy. I mean, I just think he's going to be like a 4-2 ERA guy. He's going to be okay, but without the strikeouts that you might get from a Bauer if he had a 4-2 area next year, at least with 11 strikeouts per nine, Miley's going to have seven per nine. It's a weird picture to roster in fantasy.

I do like the fit, though, with Derek Johnson being the pitching coach there. The Wade-Miley-Cutter renaissance really started with Derek Johnson back in Milwaukee. But a two-year deal, good for Wade getting that locked in, $15 million. Rick Porcello and Michael Wacca both get one-year deals with the Mets. I actually think those are both pretty interesting signings. Just from a fantasy perspective, lining those two guys up against Miley, if you were taking a shot on one of them,

who do you like most from that trio? I think a pitching coach would say Porcello because he has so many pitches, uh, and an interesting spin profile where you could be like, Hey, let's just, uh, you know,

emphasize this other pitch instead this year, you know, let's, let's go inside more. Let's go up top more, you know, just, he has a lot of pitches,

and that's usually more raw stuff to work with. Michael Walker comes with the cutter and the change, but his best pitch is pretty clearly the changeup, and I think he's been struggling to kind of put together breaking balls that work with that changeup, and then it's health on top of that. So with Steven Matz not having a great health history

and even Stroman having some issues in the past, I think it makes sense. I think Walker's probably a little pissed right now because he probably signed on to be the fifth starter. Now he's the sixth starter. And in terms of building a team you know walking the bullpen is is probably like honestly like he could be lights out in the bullpen yeah that's been this kind of lingering idea for i want to say maybe two or three draft seasons now i definitely remember

hearing it at a first pitch arizona in the past and it was not this past November. So an old idea that maybe the Mets are going to consider if all five of the starters ahead of him are healthy. You put Waka in the pen. You put Seth Lugo in the pen. You get a punt back from Edwin Diaz. That's a pretty nice trio at the back end of games. And again, that scenario has healthy starters too. Yeah, I can see the opposite being true, that one of these starters opens the year on the dl and you know it's it's a mood

point so uh i would i would say at the price point um at the deal length yeah good signs for both of those guys you you know you're paying you're playing the variance game when you, when you buy a bounce back starter like that. Maybe it's the coaching or maybe they just got healthy or maybe it's just the ball bounce differently for them. But if you're only spending, you know, that sort of money and doing it on a one or two year deal, you might, you might get a really useful picture out of this, but, um, you know, that's what they're playing. They're playing the kind of pitching variance game.

One more, uh more interesting pitching signing that just, I think, got completed today. Kwanghyun Kim has a deal with the Cardinals and it's another team where they've got five, six guys already because they brought back Adam Wainwright. So, you know, if everybody's healthy, maybe Kim's kind of a swing man,

starts the year in the pen, first guy up when someone gets hurt. Hopefully he's still got that translations or projections MLE window open. But this is a guy that almost came over a couple years ago. And I think the Padres were the team that was trying to sign him. He had some elbow issues. Something in the physical went wrong. So the deal happened.

Had Tommy John surgery. Lost 2017 to that. So what do you think? He's 31 years old, low to mid-90s fastball, good slider. Does he have enough in the arsenal to make it as a good big league starter? I don't know. I think that he's most likely a bullpen signing for them. He sits like 91 right here. Yeah's not great yeah 91 92 it's

gonna be maybe it plays up out of the pen uh the slider and slider command are good i'm searching like for kim and there are 82 results um is it possible they spell it with a G there's a Kwang Hyun Kim here I've seen K-W-A-N-G Kwang Hyun Kim as the spelling I can't find him with a K with a G

there's a 30 year old KBO looks like he was a starter last year his translated ERAs are in the low fours. I think it's one of those plays where they like something about him and they think he'll play better in the pen. So they're kind of getting a starter to come over and be in the pen here.

Yeah, that does make sense based on the way they're built. Two other signings that have gone down that I wanted to throw out for this week, Jose Peraza and Martin Perez to the Red Sox. It started in a positive way for Martin Perez, another guy that started throwing more cutters this season.

It just didn't hold at all. He ended up finishing with the same bad ratios that we are accustomed to. Is there any reason to think things could be different with a full season in Boston? Well, I wouldn't go so far. Oh, yeah, if you're talking about ratios and outputs, yes.

But best strikeout rate of his career and improved the home run rate year over year, of his career and improved the home run rate year over year, improved the BABIP, best, you know, BABIP, the second best BABIP of his career even, I think. So, or third. But, you know, I think that was enough for the Red Sox to think that he could help them on the back end of the starting rotation and maybe provide a little bit more upside and more innings, perhaps,

than other kind of $4 million to $6 million options. This isn't a team, I don't think, that could afford to kind of pay Rich Hill and then Rich Hill doesn't pitch, you know? Yeah, I'm bummed that Rich Hill has an injury that's going to keep him out until at least June. I liked him as a bargain signing for other contenders if the Dodgers weren't going to bring him back.

He could still make an impact. It's just from a fantasy standpoint. You have a really difficult time stashing away players like that. I realize that we do it with prospects sometimes hoping to get a massive payoff, but I just think it's really complicated when it's a pitcher that age with an arm injury that he's working his way back from. Jose Peraza was a guy that I didn't really ever buy in when the price shot up to being a top 100-ish guy coming off the really good year. But there is the potential for AL-only leagues, at least.

If he's a utility guy in Boston who gets chances to run, I think he could bounce back into that 15 to 20 steal range. Yeah. And I would say, just kind of perusing their depth charts, right now, Michael Chavis is kind of the top guy at two positions, which is physically impossible. Chavis is kind of the top guy at two positions, which, uh, is physically impossible.

Um, so, uh, you know, Michael Chavis, if he's their second baseman, that's, uh,

that means they've signed, I think someone, uh, to play first or Sam Travis has warped into another body and become really good. Um, and, uh, if, uh, uh, if Michael Chavis ends up being their first baseman there's

a little bit of a window there i think for paraza to be you know slightly less than league average underpowered but speedy okay on base um kind of fill in second baseman for them until they find the next one. Not a bad stopgap, a good buy low. One of the guys on the non-tender list, at least from a fantasy standpoint, who had some skills that were interesting. There's always been some real-life flaws

in that he doesn't walk, but still, there are some things he does well. Yeah, and he makes so much contact that he's actually had okay on base percentages like half the years he's been in the league. Yeah, it doesn't get to it by walking. Also, yeah, with the paucity of steals,

you can at least know where he is and how many steals you can get. I think he kind of has the Brock Holt function in a lot of ways, though, with the defensive versatility just from the other side of the plate. Could be an interesting kind of like AL only endgame

or $1 pick where you've got him on your roster to kind of slot him in for a week or two if somebody's hurt. Yeah, I think that makes sense. The Rule 5 draft happened a little over, well, a little less than a week ago.

It was on Thursday. Any of those picks catch your eye as guys that might be interesting for keeper, for dynasty leagues, and any names that you were surprised to hear? I was surprised that LeJay

Newsome was not picked from, uh, Mariners. He led the league, the minor leagues in, um, pop-ups last year and has great ride and carry on his foreseeing.

But, uh, second half numbers were no good. And I guess his velocity fell off a little bit. Um, the name, uh, that I find most interesting on this was to me the night before,

uh, Brandon Bailey, the Houston writing that was traded for Ramon Mariano. He his spin rates have taken a huge jump in the last year, and he's a little undersized. But sometimes that can be to a pitcher's benefit, especially if they have a high spin rate fastball. It's like the LeJay Newsome thing where they're short, the ball comes out from a short slot, and then it stays there. And that's just a weird look for people who are used to, you know,

six-foot-six guys with long levers throwing down at them. So, you know, Bailey, I think they will also, he went to the Orioles. And I think that's one of the best places for him to at least get a shot at starting. Because they're just going to want to keep him. They want starters. They're going to definitely try him as a starter. Even though he has been sort of transitioning to relieving um over the past a few years he's always had a few relief appearances every year i do think that the orioles will give him a shot at starting the projections are awful

don't look at them uh they will make your eyes bleed but uh we're talking uh now 20, 30 team dynasty near the end of your draft. You're a competitive team and you want just to get a pop-up guy like a Means or something. Billy has some of the stuff to do that. That rotation, as it is currently built, it looks like it has the potential to be the worst rotation of all time

with Means, Wojciechowski, maybe Alex Cobb's back and pitching at some point, Keegan Aiken, Dean Kramer. Those are the guys that are in that rotation right now. They'll probably take their shots on a few one-year guys coming off of injuries, maybe Alex Wood or Martin Perez, Matt Moore. Maybe those guys end up taking a couple spots. But it's... Maybe. But they didn't even want to pay

Villar like, what was it? $10 million? $9 million or something? Yeah, they're really, really burning it down. I think they want to suck. Just epic. Worst season ever win 40 games. Put Trey Mancini on the DL.

Just go in full dynasty. Not even playing the good players. Just putting them all on ice. Maybe foment some sort of issue with Trey Mancini. Is that going to bench him for weeks at a time? I think they would probably be happy to trade him if they could find a trade they liked. Or trade him if they could find a trade they liked. Or trade him now

and try to field a team where you're... Richie Martin is right now the starting shortstop for them. He's predicted to have a zero war. They've been here before. I think it's honestly a decent way of describing Richie Martin. Anyway.

It is bad. It is very bad. Let's hold Beer of the Week for next week. I think we can get one more episode in before New Year's so we'll do like a Beer of the Year or something like an ultimate prize. We'll air some grievances too because I think if we do a show

early next week before Christmas hits maybe we can get a Festivus episode in. For the rest of us. Big, big Festivus guy. You can reach us via email, ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com. No need to put anything in the subject line. It's just ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com.

You can find Eno on Twitter, at Eno Saris. You can find me, at Derek Van Ryper. That is going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you next week. Thanks for listening.