Rates & Barrels - Replacing Rhys Hoskins and The First FAB

Episode Date: March 24, 2023

Eno and Al look at the Phillies’ roster in the aftermath of Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending injury and consider first base replacements in fantasy. They also discuss FAB options for both 12- and 15-team leagues. Rundown 1:20 Replacing Rhys Hoskins 7:47 Spend early in FAB or save up? 13:06 12-team FAB hitting targets 26:36 12-team FAB pitching targets 32:32 15-team FAB hitting targets 42:00 15-team FAB pitching targets Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Hello and happy Friday to everyone. This is Rates and Barrels. I'm Al Melchior. I am here with Eno Saris. And it being a Friday, it's, believe it or not, Eno, it's Fab Day. First Fab Day, opening day around the corner. First Fab in front of the opening day. So we will mostly be talking about that. And of course, big news on the Phillies that we will get to very, very shortly. Just as soon as I remind everybody that the 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, of course, has been here and been online for quite a while. Got the bold predictions up today.

Bold, that's right. I saw them, you know. So yeah, you can catch that. My Q&A with Keith law is also up. There'll be lots more good content in the coming days. If you've got drafts right before opening day. So the draft kit is still, still there and still growing. And you can access that.

And of course, everything that's on the athletic for just $1 a month for the first year. So check that out. Just go to the athletic.com slash rates and barrels with rates and barrels all written out. And let's get right to that big Phillies news. Reese Hoskins, unfortunately, really unfortunate news. Reese Hoskins out for the season. So kind of a gruesome play on Thursday. Hoskins trying to field a grounder, tore his ACL in his left knee, and he is scheduled to have reconstructive surgery.

So for those of you who, of course, already have Hoskins, that's going to be part of your task, I suppose, in FAB this weekend if your league does that. Yeah, it's really unfortunate. It's in his walk year. Uh, it's just an awful, awful, uh, you know, event for him. And, um, you know, I wonder if it had anything to do with the off season knee surgery. Um, but, um, in either case, uh, it's awful for him and it's, it's, it's honestly for people who haven't drafted yet it's kind of bad for the first base pool

he was an interesting way to bank a lot of power late some of the later first basemen are more modest in terms of their power and so the first base pool takes a hit

there is a possible replacement in Derek Hall for Fab and for Draft, but the one thing about Derek Hall is he does not make good contact. batting average guy, even lower, I think, than Hoskins would have been. And so I think he's somebody that you can pick up if you were a little short in power. And it is nice to see that he has improved his strikeout rate this spring. There's a little bit of signal in that. His strikeout rate so far is uh 15 this spring now when i say there's a little bit of signal to that you would still regress it pretty heavily to his uh to what he's done in the past which is more like a 28 to 30 strikeout rate but that does represent his upside if he could strike out even 25 of the time like steamamer has him striking out,

I could see him with a 240 batting average and not being too far from Maurice Hoskins' replacement. Yeah, because the power should be there. I think one thing that will restrict Hall's value is that I don't anticipate he's going to play much against left-handed starters. I think he got 12 plate appearances all last season. Granted, he wasn't up the whole year, but still barely got to the plate against lefties at all last year. And I looked at how he did last season at Lehigh Valley against lefties,

and it was not encouraging. In fact, I've got the slash line here, 184, 255, 336 against lefties. And he did get a good number of plate appearances there at lehigh valley so that's something else yeah quite not not in a good way so definitely aware of those splits yeah well we'll talk like i said we're gonna have a conversation about fab so we'll revisit this and and talk about where hall should be pursued uh 12 teamam, maybe deeper than 15-team, see where we land on that. In terms of getting back to the comment that you made about the first base pool really being kind of power light lower in the pool,

does this, in any upcoming drafts, does this give you maybe a stronger incentive to go after, say, a Christian Walker, a Vinny Pasquantino, and not take your chances in the middle to late rounds? I saw Hoskins as the end of the beginning of the first base crew. But the deepest and most interesting part of the first base grouping for me is the middle. And right there from about a 150 to a 200 ADP, you've got, I kid you not, I kid you not, I'm not going to use the other word. I kid you not, 10 first basemen that I like. I mean, I don't like every single one of them, but there's 10 first basemen in there from 150 to 200.

That's a lot. And a lot of them are good. So take your pick, whether you like Mountcastle or Tellez or you like Rizzo or France or you like Bell or Naylor. I like Naylor a little bit, but take your pick from 150 to about 220 actually. There's a ton of first basemen and none of them are going to hit as many power, as many homers as Hoskins. So if that's how your build is going

and you really need that power, maybe you wait even later and take Hall later. But there's plenty of ways to get 25 homers between 150 and 200 in the ADP. Okay. And just looking even deeper here in terms of the domino effect in Philadelphia, I think we'd see obviously the big uptick in playing time for Derek Hall. On MLB.com, they talked about Alec Boehm moving to first base, which actually was something that I figured we'd see because you look at that roster and beyond Derek Hall, there aren't really a lot of players. And Boehm's defense hasn't been well-rated,

so there was almost maybe the sense that he was headed there in the long term anyway. Yeah, so maybe that's expedited. But I think Hall can still play there now and bone can still play third for now so i don't think that'll happen necessarily but yes against lefties we will see josh harrison step in uh almost assuredly edmund sosa is uh more defensive glue i think for this team than he is uh someone that needs to start against lefties. I think Harrison.

Maybe Harrison plays third and Baum plays first against lefties. Yeah, it could be Harrison, could be Sosa at third. Again, it's that short side of the platoon. I think this maybe solidifies not only the roster spot, but some playing time for Jake Cave.

Although he too, like Hall, I think you'd only see him against right-handed pitching, but that's the fatter side of the platoon. So, you know, some intriguing possibilities there with Cave as a little bit of power. But let's go to the broader fab discussion here, Eno. And let's start broadly with that. It's the first week week so this is always a conundrum for me I feel like I never get this right so do you plan to save up your your dollars for I don't know May the middle of the season uh you know even later than that or do you just go

for it early and I'm aggressive that I'm aggressive the to win a player now could give you six months of goodness to win a player during fabapalooza when a when a player comes up from the minor leagues later in the year gives you less of that player and also puts you in a bin with all the people that have saved their money. If you're aggressive early, you're theoretically not competing against the entire league because some of them are saying, I'm going to save my money. So later, you're going to be up against everybody.

So I tend to be more aggressive early. I don't know that I would spend 20% of my fab on Derek Hall, but I might spend 11%, especially if I came out of my draft saying, ooh, power, or if I just lost Hoskins and I just lost 35 homers off of there. Throwing an $11 or $13 bid, 11 or 13% bid out there to make sure I got that power back, even if it hurt me in batting average. percent bid out there to make sure i got that power back even if it hurt me in batting average uh who else are you going to find on the wire that could hit you 30 homers right now yeah i'm trying to think um yeah not not likely that 12 teamers yes everything is a little bit

lesser because especially because it's batting average and 12 teamers you're more like a three to six percent bid on this guy right because you do have somebody else out there that could hit homers yeah oh you mentioned to les before i'm looking right now he's got a 61 percent roster rate on cbs so he's like he's out there yeah exactly i pick up rowdy in a second over derrick hall yeah it easily easily uh i'm just taking a look at who else might be available. Brandon Drury, but I'm not counting on a repeat of last season. I mean, I take him over Hall just because I think he'll hit for a better batting average. Here's an interesting name, and I don't think he's ready for 12-teamers yet.

I don't think you need to take this plunge right now, but I think maybe over the course of the season, maybe we'll find that Will Myers is going to be ready for 12 for 12 teamers again with the move to the and again because there is that sort of uh that sort of offering if you've lost hoskins you do not have to spend hard on hall you can put a you can spread your bids around and if there's myers there and there's hall there i would actually put myers ahead of Hall in my bidding. And in a 12-teamer, I'd probably bid like $5 or $6 on Myers because I did just lose a bunch of power,

and I would rather have a guy in there. To Les, I might go to six, maybe Myers at $4 or $5, and Hall at $2 or $3, really. Okay, so when you're talking about going 10 11 percent that's more 15 teamers where gotcha you know when you're looking on a 15 team wire like for for example for my tgfbi when i look at uh who's out there for power uh i'm looking at jerks and pro far i'm skipping ahead probably these are names that we'll probably go for but matt carpenter you know i'm if like if i need power i'm gonna go get matt carpenter

and if it's matt carpenter versus derrick hall i might take derrick hall matt carpenter's on a team that also has nelson cruz on it you know and also has other options if matt carpenter scuffles a little bit they'll they'll do other things I think Hall has a little bit of leash because in terms of a lefty hitting first baseman, he's probably the best option. Now, what if Nelson Cruz scuffles? I'm looking at those guys, Matt Carpenter, Nelson Cruz. So maybe you're right. Maybe Hall is more of a 7% or 8% because if you have somebody like Carpenter or Cruz out there, you could drop a 5% or a 4% or 5% on them.

Well, the thing I think that would justify that 11% bid on Hall versus Carpenter is that I don't, you know, that was just a hypothetical I threw out there that Cruz loses playing time. Of course, Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back. So I don't know how long term the regular playing time is going to be for Carpenter. It's obviously going to be there for Hall. I think the point still holds that there's not as much power out there on the wire, you know, so Hall would be immediately one of the best power options on the wire yeah and carpenter certainly has that that potential when you you i when you asked who's out there that could hit you 30 home runs maybe carpenter could but a lot of question marks showed up in a cool thing on my

bold predictions chart i think i've referenced it on rates and barrels before but he showed up as a hitter that was top quartile in contact rate and top quartile in barrels so carpenter may still have some juice left yeah certainly looked like it last year for sure uh now you mentioned pro far before how shallow do you think we should go with him he's still pretty widely available so 12 teamers i think he should be pretty aggressive with them 12 teamers i think you should be pretty aggressive with them i think this is about the best landing spot he could have had i think he's going to start all the time i think he's gonna hit 260 with 18 homers and you know maybe 70 rbi you know that's definitely above average in any league it's maybe average-ish for a 12 team but so what do you think five percent

in a 12 team uh yeah yeah i don't think i would yeah it's it's also not very high upside right so in 12 teams a lot of times you're chasing upside so maybe there's somebody out there on that wire that has more upside let me look at your list here real quick there's got to be um you know like if like if masataka yoshida is on your waiver wire for some reason or kodai senga or jordan walker you know these are names that you have listed here as being available and being added if those guys are available, then don't worry too much about Jerks and Profile. You know what I mean?

Like you can put them on your bid list, but put them last and put them for $1 to $2. But if you're... It's fair enough. It's funny to say, we talk about like a 12-team league, right? And it's like, well, there's some 12-team leagues where they have 15-man benches,

and there's some 12-team leagues that don't have an MICI and have five-man benches. In those leagues, Shurik's and Profar may not actually be playable. If it's like a three-outfield 12-team league, what's Profar going to do for you?

Yeah, well, he's going to be probably going back to the wire in a week or two. Or you just play him when he's home. Right. Exactly. Yeah. And on the other hand, now on CBS,

his roster rate is currently 29%. That's clearly way too low, but it also means, I mean, he, I don't see that going up to 60 or 70 over the weekend. So we'll see on Monday if I'm wrong about that, but NFC he's at 61 i assume he

will actually because nfc is mostly 15 team leagues and some 12 team leagues i assume that number will get uh to 90 i mean dylan carlson's at 93 would you rather have dylan carlson or jerks and profar i would definitely rather have profar yeah okay so he's going to be profar is going to be one of the most added guys in the NFC this weekend Yeah, it is running this weekend it looks like Right, but that is an important piece of context that that's a lot of 15 teamers so those roster rates are going to be higher

just like CBS's tend to run a lot higher than Yahoo or ESPN so a 29% rate like profar's got that means he's he's a long way away from you know being unavailable in 12 teamers yeah so um yeah i just don't think you need to prioritize it this week if you miss out uh you know there's yeah there's there'll be somebody else next week and maybe maybe it's profar in fact like yeah i mean he's not like even dylan carlson like if it's Profar in fact. Yeah. I mean, he's not like even Dylan Carlson, like if it's a keeper league, I could see almost saying keeping Dylan Carlson over Profar because there's a

little bit more upside there. I mean, Profar is nearer to the end of his career. He doesn't have, he doesn't have much ceiling left. And I don't think that Colorado is going to automatically turn him into some superhero. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton bike, bike plus,

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they're not really that likely to be available in a lot of 12 teamers. Maybe you'll get lucky, but I think, you know, we're talking about kind of the really shallow formats. I'd be very aggressive with them if they were there, though. Exactly.

You're not going to get another shot at either one of them. This is the kind of thing that you would save up for in-season, except you could get them now. Exactly, yeah. Walker is on the most added list on ESPN. Those roster rates are lower.

And let me see if I can find that roster rate for Walker without taking too much time. It's 26%. So again, typically shallower leagues on ESPN. So if you're playing in one of those, yeah, definitely make a big play for Walker because he probably won't be there this time next week unless it's a super, super shot.

Definitely making the team. There was a little bit of an injury mishap, but I don't see a new update on that, so I assume he's all right. All right. I'll keep tabs on that over the weekend. And just add a couple more Cardinals here to the list. Names I was surprised to see on most added lists

because I didn't think there was that much room left to add them. Yeah, he's been back in the lineup already for 10 days, it looks like. Okay, that is encouraging. So a couple more Cardinals. Brendan Donovan and your guy, Lars Neupahr, both on the ESPN and CBS most added lists, but not a lot of room to get them in 12-teamer. So I would think this is

the weekend. If, if you want to get them, how aggressive should we be? I like Donovan a lot. If you're an, even in a 12 team league with, if it's a head to head, Donovan has a really interesting use case where he'll just play all over. And I love in head to head, just getting those extra plate appearances by plugging him in on days off for other players and anytime you get that day-to-day tag on a player you can have that Renan Donovan on your roster uh to play for them um and uh I just I love having a player like that it doesn't have to be Donovan I've had other players like it Isak Paredes, Luis Urias all those guys but you know if those guys are gone and Donovan. I've had other players like it, Isak Paredes, Luis Urias, all those guys.

But, you know, if those guys are gone and Donovan is there, then go get him. And the added benefit is that he has been pulling more fly balls and hitting for more power this spring. And the Cardinals did lead the league in pull fly balls. So if he joins the pull fly ball party, that could change a lot because the biggest thing about him is he's, if worst case scenario, he's David Fletcher and he's not going to be in the league that long. Best case scenario, he does add power and he becomes a league average regular. Either way, this year, he should have a decent batting average and something like 7 to 10 homers and 5 to 10 steals. It's just the kind of lineup spackle, as a friend of mine calls it,

that could really help you get through the season. So aggressive, but not like a big bid. Because like I said, what if he hits 10 homers and steals 10 bases and that's near the top of his ceiling? That's not someone you want to spend $300 for in the first week. Yeah. And it depends on your categorical needs, which I know sounds like a really weird thing to say before the season even starts. But if you're looking at the composition of your roster and say, hey, I'm kind of lagging in batting average, then I think you can go a little extra on Donovan. That's his best foot forward, yeah.

Yeah, absolutely. So looking at his roster rate on CBS, 73%. So again, already making some inroads into 12-teamers. But right there behind him, Tyro Estrada, 70%. Not quite as much positional flexibility as Donovan, but I think they could kind of fill a similar need. Estrada more so with stolen bases, but just taking categorical need out of the equation, who would you prioritize, Donovan or Estrada?

I like Estrada a little better. He's going to hit more homers. He's going to steal more bases. There is, I guess, some worry about how the Giants are going to put this roster together. As always.

But you can't count on Donovan to start every day either. Donovan's not necessarily sitting on top of a depth chart at a one position for the Cardinals either, as I understand it. Am I right? Or is he the second baseman? No, I think that's right.

It's something I would worry about. Who's the second baseman? I'm not thinking of. On which? On the Cardinals. The Cardinals or Giants. He could be the second baseman. I think that's where he slots

in. I'm not sure that Gorman makes this team. I still prefer Estrada because I think there's similar situations where they might not get 100% of the playing time. Estrada is going to hit more homers and seal more bases.

The thing is, if Gorman doesn't make the team, then who even competes with Donovan? DeJong is hurt. I mean, Taylor Motter maybe makes the roster, but don't see him. You be quiet. I had made a point, and I'm not going to waffle on it. I still prefer Estrada.

Fair enough. I'm not trying to talk you out of it. You're right. it looks kind of like donovan's the everyday starter at second i don't i just don't think gorman's gonna make this team well the cardinals are one of those teams that like the giants like the dodgers it doesn't even matter who's on the roster i will worry about playing time about anybody who's like batting fifth or sixth or lower yeah they do move guys around. Absolutely, they do. So, you know, I do understand.

Said, signed, annoyed Juan Yepes, owner last season. Just put him in the lineup. I've got one more name for you, and I'm not even sure if he belongs in this discussion, but, you know, steals are steals. So Bubba Thompson, should people in 12-teamers be pursuing that steals potential? I'm not in on Bubba Thompson. I mean, I missed him the first time through because I don't think he's a very good hitter.

And so I might miss him again. But Grossman, Robbie Grossman is a switch hitter. Adeliz Garcia is probably an everyday starter and Leotis Tavares I think is probably one of the players on this team Leotis Tavares that could have the most upside in terms of a young player that could just really come into his own. If he just accesses some of the power he's shown in the minor leagues and puts that together with his defense, I don't think you take him out of the lineup. So I think Tavares

gets his first full season, everyday shot this year. And Thompson is more of a traditional fourth outfielder that doesn't play that often. Alright. And Tavares dealing with a strained oblique. So I don't know if that necessarily changes. Oh, shut up, man. There's so much news it's so hard okay thompson is a candidate to handle center field wow taveras okay so thompson's a good play but a short-term play all right well

that's yeah that's where i was gonna go because and again this now takes us to maybe a broader you know more philosophical question heading into the first What do you spend on a short-term play? Exactly. How important is that? Steals, though. One thing I have noticed is that people tend to think too long-term, and this is a bias I have where I'm like, this guy's a good player. I should hold on to him through this six-week injury.

Should you? Is he that good? week injury should you is he that good you know and so uh taveras i think being hurt um makes it more likely that you draft bubba thompson than taveras because taveras would have been one of your like late game strategies except now he's hurt so you want to go into the season holding a late game guy who's hurt or just go into the season with buba Thompson and drop Bubba Thompson for the Otis Tavares or somebody else when Tavares comes back. You know what I mean? So I think we should think more, more sort of week to week with our backend hitters. That's been something that Jeff Zimmerman talks about.

He's had a lot of great success just being very aggressive in terms of, I need to have plate appearances this week in my lineup. So, you know, that's something to think about. So you made me waffle again. Great. Bubba over Leotis. For now, long term, I believe

in Leotis. If it's a keeper league, don't drop Leotis. Leotis has, I keep putting an S on his name, Leotis has something to him that i i like which is that he demonstrated higher power in the minors and uh he's got good max ev he's got good max power so if he just accesses a little bit more of that and gets his barrel rate back up to six seven percent like he had uh coming into the season now you got a guy with speed uh seven percent barrel rates he could hit uh 260 with a 330 obp and a 420 slugging if he if he

has that sort of stuff and that's like a 15 homer 20 to 30 steals guy like i think he has that in him bubba is more of a not like billy hamilton but kind of you know just like not a very good hitter who's very fast all right well uh let's go to some pictures uh for 12 teamers and uh we got some deep guys to get to too so we won't belabor this too long but you know i talked a little bit before uh starting this this episode you know and i had spencer turnbull on the list and you were you know sort of like spencer turnbull 12 teamers really his roster rate on cbs is 57 so if he's going to be picked up this weekend that you know that means that you might kind of miss your your window i just did a draft on cbs

and they there's these weird draft things that happen. So I think Spencer Turnbull is ranked, right? And since he's ranked, he shows up before a whole mess of pitchers that are unranked. And I was drafting at a Little League game, and so I tried to fill my queue before, but at some point I was at the mercy of well who can i find in this draft room you know late and uh when i started going through the unranked uh pitchers i was like oh man there's a lot of good pitchers in here that i missed and other people started taking guys like edward cabrera who was like what where was he dang it you know so i i think there's uh these weird little biases uh from esbn to cbs to wherever where even in auto new uh there's a click you can click a button that gives you top ranked

like uh like free agents in the draft room right there's bias in that like you're not going to see someone lower um and so i would assume that has a little bit something to do with turnbull being here because i i'm not speaking ill of him i just thought that he might be somebody that could be on your 15 team wires and that you could pick up but uh maybe maybe that's not true anymore he's had a good spring league average stuff plus which actually for a starter is above average he's got a great home park but the dimensions are changing um i like turnbull as a medium like a decent floor uh medium ceiling guy and uh should be pitching to begin the season and uh you know i i think the tiger schedule is all

right so you know it's a all right well it's a guy to pick up sorry yeah yeah let me put his availability and let's toss matthew boyden there who's just behind turn bowl and roster rate uh and toss in patrick sandoval i'm surprised 70 percent roster rate on cbs so he's not necessarily universally available in 12 teamers but worth looking for some of this is you start playing the schedule game. If you look at the Tigers, they open against the Rays in Tampa. If you've got a top three starter, and I think Turnbull will be one of the top three, then you like him.

If you've got Matt Boyden, he's the fifth starter. He's going to get the Astros in Houston. That's a little bit less exciting. And so you kind of want to know where they slot if you're just guessing I would put Turnbull ahead of Boyd pretty significantly just because I think he's going to be higher in that rotation so given what Boyd has done this spring then you're still not finding him as like somebody to to go a little extra on i mean if like sandoval's out there then yeah go harder on sandoval i mean he's not something that pops in my model but he's done really well and it's possible my model doesn't capture everything

and the angels play the a's a lot and they start in oakland and seattle i'm not afraid of either of those and then they go home. Blue Jays. That I might want to skip. But Sandoval, you know, against the A's? Yes. You know. If you have to skip against a Blue Jays start to keep him on your roster,

I think he's probably still worth it. All right. And a little less available than Sandoval, just moving on to relievers here real quickly. David Robertson, and again, I'm just using CVS as a guide. And as you said, you know, there could be some wild fluctuation, just players relative to other players on different sites. But Robertson at 75%. So kind of on that cusp of maybe available, maybe not available in your 12 teamers. be not available in your 12 teamers and then uh you know on the thursday show we talked about the ricel iglesias injury so aj mentor at least in the short term should be a save source so let's say or joe jimenez so one of those two i kind of i kind of like joe a little bit better uh i think that just the the not lack of knowledge uh who's going to get the saves should reduce if you have let's say you are willing to go to eight percent or eleven percent for a closer that you're pretty sure is a closer

reduce that in the spring because we don't have uh games we don't have saves we haven't seen what the manager is doing whatever the manager is saying could be wishy-washy could be a lie could be anything you know it's they're just appeasing the media. And so until they actually use a guy in the save situation, we don't actually know who's going to use him. So that should reduce your output. I do have Robertson ahead of anybody in Atlanta. I would probably go Robertson, Jimenez, Minter, Adovino if I was ordering them.

And I might top out with Robertson at sort of, I don't know, 6%, 8%. It's a little bit rough to kind of go to 11% and 13% for Robertson without knowing he's going to be the guy. And yet I suspect that, and I think that like 6% to 8% range seems really fair to me. And yet I suspect that's probably not going to get it done. But we'll see. If you really are hurting on for saves, like push Robertson to 11 maybe. But don't push those other guys past that because you don't know. You don't even know how long Iglesias can be out.

That's absolutely true. So something important to keep in mind. So like I said, we've got a number of deeper league fab targets to get to. So let's talk about those. And I'll start with somebody that was also recently discussed, and that is Orlando Arcia, because the newsworthy item there was the demotion of Von Grissom. So I'm guessing this is a kind of a short-term thing for Arcia and 15-teamers. I don't know, though.

Why would it be? Like, there's no, like, oh, if Vaughn Grissom does X, he's coming up. Like, I think Orlando Arcia just might be the starter for the Braves this year. He's done it before in Milwaukee. He got 546 and 548 plate appearances in two years. Been about a one-win player. I think the Braves are just like, that's what our shortstop is going to be. He's going to be a sure-handed guy who gives us one win and the rest of the lineup is going to be awesome. Our catchers are awesome

offensively. Our hole is going to be awesome. And he's, our catchers are awesome offensively. So our hole is going to be at shortstop. Okay. And right now he's just second base eligible. So that's something else to keep in mind. If the hole you need to fill is shortstop, not to say that you wouldn't target Arcia because in a 15 team or I think, especially if you're right, you know,

I mean, that's, that's a great player to be able to pick up in the first weekend of FAB. I mean, a great monolig guy. I think he probably didn't make it through the draft. Yeah. If he's out there in L only, I'd go pretty aggressive on him. Because that's an MI at least you can have all year that can hit 240, 250 with 10 to 15 homers, five bags.

I think he can do that. Yeah. And the thing is, if you don't get him, let's say you do need to fill a second base hole right away. You're not going to find anybody, I think, close to that in a deeper league. How about Josh Donaldson? I was sort of surprised. You and I did the same thing.

We looked at our TGFBI waiver wires. He's sitting right there, and my eyes went to him. Donaldson was on mine. I was a little surprised by that. But I'm part of the problem, right? I didn't draft him. I haven't drafted him anywhere. I probably am stigmatizing him for being late in the career arc and did have some drop-off last year,

but still hitting for good power in a very good lineup. Yeah. He's had a good spring and he's got a swing adjustment. Yeah, he's had a good spring and he's got a swing adjustment. And so, you know, it's interesting that he's still hitting 220, 230, despite accessing more of the power this spring. And that is his projection. So that should help you rein your enthusiasm in. Remember that his projection is for about

225 and he's hitting that in spring even as he's been good. So he's really just maybe a CI replacement for Reese Hoskins. Maybe a guy you put down bid under Derek Hall. And maybe a reason that you shouldn't

go super aggressive on Derek Hall. Because if you can put Doss Donaldson on that same bid list what's uh how different are they going to be Donaldson if you gave him 600 play appearances by most of the projections is like a 25 homer hitting 230 guy 225 guy and that's not too far from where Derek Hall is yeah pretty pretty similar I imagine that they will wind up assuming Donaldson stays healthy and Hall keeps the job. I would imagine they wind up with pretty similar lines.

So that's a good, a good call there. Well, we talked about Matt Carpenter earlier, but he's available in a lot of deeper leagues. James Outman, he's come up. It seems like in every episode, you know, but the mystery's been solved. He has made the Dodgers opening day roster. We still have questions about roles. We'll probably have questions about roles, you know, as we get into August and September with the Dodgers.

But do you feel good enough about the playing time possibilities for Outman to not only pursue him in 15-teamers, but go, you know, as high as like 4 or 5 percent? The thing that I don't like about josh outman is jason hayward and the fact that they are both lefties yeah so i don't know what's happening there in center field really is hayward the backup is outward the backup? is Altman the backup? the projections aren't super kind to Altman I guess similar to the kind of Donaldson-Hall types we're talking about low batting average, lots of strikeouts and good power maybe a little bit more steals than Donaldson or Hall will have

and outfield eligibility but if you're just looking to replace a power bat maybe a little bit more steals than Donaldson or Hall will have, and outfield eligibility. But if you're just looking to replace a power bat, I could put him on the same bid list, but I would put him behind Donaldson. So how regressive would you go? Like 3%? I think 1%. Because even if he does make this team and Hayward is the backup, there's still Trace Thompson, there's still Chris Taylor as a righty taking bats away from him

against lefties probably. Right. Yeah. Always going to be a roster crunch there. Will Benson, at least initially, looks like he's going to get some regular play in center field. Nick Senzel still coming back from his big toe fracture. Did make his spring training debut on Wednesday.

And in a piece on MLB.com, there was some discussion there about how Senzel is maybe going to be more of a utility player, going to get some reps at third. Of course he's played second. I'm finally out on Nick Senzel. Finally. Okay. Well, are you in on it? Finally did it. I don't know i we we talked i think maybe it was yesterday or just recently about uh oh i think it was earlier this week with chris welsh we talked

about how how is christian and carnassian strand going to come and make this team and to me what i saw in the outfield for the reds is just a cycling through process. They are going to try out Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and TJ Friedel. They're going to try out Stuart Fairchild. They're going to try out, maybe Michael Ciani will come up at some point as a center fielder. Nick Solak is getting tries in the outfield. They've got Richie Martin and Henry Ramos getting tries in the outfield. So I think they're going to cycle through people, and Will Myers is probably going to be his station. So you've got a lot of bodies there.

You've got a lot of players there, and I haven't even gotten into more of their prospecting types. Also, 11 strikeouts in 41. That's a pretty decent for Benson. That's a, uh, two 27% strikeout rate. Uh, he's projected to have a 31% strikeout rate. If he had a 27% strikeout rate, he might hit two 2225 225 uh got more speed than the other guys on this list i would put him ahead of outman on a bid list yeah definitely in the short run a better playing time outlook yeah i think i think you know a fraley could play center but even if fraley plays center then it's benson versus friedel for a. And I think Fraley's kind of out of center.

So I think Benson could be the primary starter in center field for the short term. And he could rest control away. If he's playing well in center, then there's no reason that you're going to put Senzel in over him. All right. Well, we've got just a few more. Actually, just one more hitter that popped up on my waiver wire and TGFBI that I'll certainly be looking at. That's Dominic Smith. And again, if you were if you lost Reese Hoskins in a deep league, you're not gonna be able to replace Reese Hoskins. But I think Smith has as much upside as anybody. does anybody yeah he's uh got a good spring uh his projections are very stead but what are you going to do in a deep league he's going to play i think they're going to give him a shot to play

every day um and uh you know gives them uh possibly next year with him as a free before he hits free agency so uh to get two years out of a first baseman they they got off the wire basically i think they're gonna give him a shot let him play every day and it is a nice power environment for a player who was playing in a much worse power environment in new york so if that can help his slugging percentage over 420 or something. Then you've got a guy who could hit 250 with 18 homers or something like that. It's not Reese Hoskins, but what are you going to do? Better than Derek Hall in a 15-teamer.

Certainly a better batting average. certainly a better batting average. And one that's closer to Hoskins, right? You would have been thinking you were going to get a 250 average from Hoskins. So I think if you look at your build and you say, I really can't afford to go down to 220 with this player. Like Hoskins needed to be my worst batting average, you know? Then I think it's Smith.

But if you had Hoskins slated in there for the power, I think you won't haul. All right. Well, let's move on to some pitching options here. Jared Schuster looks like he's going to be getting that fifth starter spot with Atlanta. JD Brubaker's had a great spring. We've talked about him on some past episodes, but I figure we'll revisit him here. You've mentioned you like Kyle Gibson as a late round option, and he was available, I think you said, in your TGFBI waiver wire.

So that was a little bit surprising. And Nick Pavetta, not very broadly rostered. So Schuster, Brubaker, Gibson, Pavetta, anybody stand out to you that's worth more than a dollar or two? Well, Pavetta is a tough one for me because the models liked him forever. He had a good spring in terms of stuff plus, and, you know, but the models liked him forever

and he hasn't been that good. And that's a tough home park for me. He's got the Orioles at home. If he's in the top three of the rotation, he might get the... I think he'll be in the top three of the rotation, just because the back end of the rotation is younger players that don't have as many innings, if I'm correct about the way that Red Sox rotation was slot. So the Orioles at home is not a great first start. And for Gibson, he's got probably the Red Sox on the road. And I like that even worse for him. So those aren't necessarily

places I would look in the short term, because I do think that they will be streamers if you think they're somebody that you're just going to pick up for cheap this week not start them this week and start them in in subsequent weeks um you're still going to be careful with uh with Gibson because the series after this is Orioles at Rangers I mean if he's the ace for the Orioles then he will get Orioles at Rangers if he's anything behind behind that he gets the Yankees uh in in in Baltimore and I don't I don't want him for that so uh you know it gets you know when you play the schedule game you're like oh I think I know what's going to happen and then you know well that guy rested a day or oh we're

starting Gibson as the fifth starter because of whatever reason. You know what I mean? It's just like, oh, man. But they are very schedule dependent. So as you start to get more of a knowledge of – they're announcing opening day starters, right? Some teams, yeah, have gone. There's been a thing where baseball wants to announce all the opening day starters at once.

So that's why we're not hearing more about opening day starters since Mitch Keller was announced. But JT Brubaker would get Cincinnati in Cincinnati if he's one of the top three starters. Or the Red Sox in Boston. So I like J.D. Brubaker. I'm not starting him that first week.

Yeah. Now you said before he was a matchup dependent and the Cincinnati one's going to be tough because you want to avoid the park, but how good is that offense really going to be? But yeah, red socks would definitely want to miss on that one. And then Schuster, is there a scenario there where you would want to pick him up?

You know, the model hates him, gives him a sort of 70 stuff plus. And so I'm not in on him long term in terms of, you know, I'd want to see him defeat the model longer than he has. But he hides the ball really well. And deception is supposedly part of his game. He starts the brave start at the Nationals and at the Cardinals. The Cardinals have a pretty good offense, but that that park has traditionally been a pitcher's park. So I don't mind his start so much. I could see picking him up as a short-term guy, even though I think Soroka is going to come and take his job later. If you don't need a starter and you're not really streaming,

then I think the smart play might be actually to throw a dollar run like Soroka if you can wait a couple weeks, because I think Soroka will come up and take that job. All right. Well, excellent way to wind up this discussion, Eno. So appreciate all the analysis. Appreciate all you tuning in. Good luck with your fab this weekend and any drafts that you've got coming up. And just a very, very quick reminder here that you can reach us with any questions that you have. Eno's on Twitter at Eno Saris. I'm on Twitter at AlmelkURBB. You can email us at ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. Rates and Barrels all spelled out

or drop a question in the comments under the YouTube video. So again, thanks so much for listening and we'll be back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.