Rates & Barrels - Rob Manfred Reinstates Pete Rose & Astros Talk w/Chandler Rome

Episode Date: May 14, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss Rob Manfred's decision to reinstate Pete Rose, along with 16 others from Major League Baseball's "Permanently Ineligible List" (more on the 16 others in a future episode). Plus, they discuss IL stints for Corey Seager, Roki Sasaki and Ian Happ, before taking a deep dive into the Astros with The Athletic's Chandler Rome. Rundown0:41 Rob Manfred Reinstates Pete Rose, 16 Others From MLB's Permanently Ineligible List9:53 Corey Seager: Back to the IL w/Hamstring Strain14:14 Roki Sasaki to the IL w/Shoulder Impingement17:09 Ian to the IL, Moises Ballesteros Promoted by Cubs24:14 Chandler Rome Joins the Show, Early Impressions of Cam Smith31:36 Zach Dezenzo Gets an Increased Opportunity37:50 Slow Starts for Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz43:17 Changes for Jeremy Peña Behind 25-25 Pace?48:09 Other Depth Options for Starting Rotation53:14 Time to Acquire Left-Handed Bat(s)?!Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.socialFollow Chandler on Bluesky: @[e-mail]-mail: [e-mail] our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisWith: Chandler RomeProducer: Brian SmithExecutive Producer: Derek VanRiper Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Wednesday, May 14th, Derek Van Riper, Enosaris here with you on this episode. We have some deep dive Astros talk later on in the show, Chan the Roam of the Athletic will join us for that. Cover a lot of ground with him. The team kind of in the middle right now that needs to do a few things better in order to become clear cut buyers

as the trade deadline approaches in two and a half months. But tons of baseball news because just after we hung up with Joe Sheehan on our Tuesday episode, we received the press release that surprised many folks in the baseball world. Less so given recent events than it probably would have had this come down even six months ago, but Commissioner Rob Manfred reinstated Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and 15 other players from Major League Baseball's permanently ineligible list. And to be perfectly blunt, you know, there is no

topic in baseball I enjoy talking about and reading about less than Pete Rose. And I think it's because my mind has been clearly made up. It's very simple for me. Pete Rose bet on baseball as a manager and that's the rule that you can't break in baseball. So to reinstate him even after his death seems like a very bad decision from Rob Manfred point blank and that doesn't even dig into anything else we've learned in the time since that ban came down more than 30 years ago about Pete Rose's life. And those details, right, allegations of a sexual relationship with a minor, like that, like makes him irredeemable to me. I don't want to show grace to a person with those allegations. So it's a non-starter for me and it leads to a

bunch of other questions like, well why would Manfred do this? What's in it for him? And people are asking now, does Pete Rose get a chance to go to a bunch of other questions like, why would Manfred do this? What's in it for him? People are asking now, does Pete Rose get a chance to go to the Hall of Fame? Short answer, yes, he does ultimately have the window. It's open now for that all to happen. So I'm curious, do you have the same kind of snap reaction to any Pete Rose story that I do? Or I'm like, I've already decided.

I'm not moving off my position. I don't think he belongs in the Hall of Fame. There's a character clause in the Hall of Fame. That matters. We know what we know. That matters. Where are you at here? I definitely started in that same standpoint,

and I think I will end there, but I always tried to be carefully considered and the king of waffles. And so I tried to listen and read. And one thing that I noticed was that a lot of people that played with him or played against him felt that this was the right move. So there was definitely a lot of respect for him as a player and you know, former players and managers of that time frame welcomed this move.

I'm painting them with a broad brush here, but that's what I read when I read these pieces that we've had up. That's what Bob Melvin said. He literally said, I don't know why they waited this long. He's one of the greatest that ever played and he deserves to be in that. That's been sort of, I'm paraphrasing Bob Melvin, but that's been sort of the feeling I've gotten from people who've played him. And so there's that. There's the fact that I've struggled personally with the character clause in the Hall of Fame vote. I do think I will, he will not receive my vote and I'm gonna stick with that. There's just the dirtiness of how this fits in with not only political pressure from you know, our nation's president but also just the fact that we're

Maybe in bed with gambling now in a way that we weren't before and I don't know Out of one side of his mouth. He's saying you know, I'm going to parse the word You know permanent to mean ends at death, you know He's you know as Hannah Kaiser pointed out very Astutely like this is a lawyer Rob Manfred talking in lawyer isms about how you know He is now going to consider a permanent Ban ending at death. That is the the quote-unquote ruling that has happened here And then on the other side of their mouth,

be like, oh, the people who are on the permanent ban list now are staying on there because we want that to be a major deterrent to them. On one hand, saying we've got to get anybody who's gambling on baseball out of baseball. There are people who are banned right now who bet on baseball in the minor leagues during COVID when there was no people who are banned right now who bet bet on baseball in the minor leagues during kovat when there was no baseball You know who are banned

Because they want to we want to say no you can't bet on baseball But then you're gonna the number one guy who broke the number one rule that's in the clubhouse every clubhouse You know, we're gonna reinstate him like I mmm Most of it just makes me angry. The last quote you mentioned grace and this is one of the hardest things to do is to show grace when you have no inclination to show it. And Mike Schilt you know so he didn't know about the particulars I'm paraphrasing here here's the actual here's the part I want

to actually say exactly what he said. What they did relative to how they have been judged and how they are now judges not for me to say this is Mike Schilt About this ruling, but I will say this grace is important I think grace is a really important thing clearly they made some mistakes and now they're getting some grace for me I don't think there can be a shortage of supply of grace in this world And then he was asked by Dennis Lin who who was, I think by Dennis Lin, but I think it was in a scrum. He was asked, why is grace important? Because we're all broken, man.

And that is the only place that I can find any solace with this. Pete Rose is not here to enjoy this. And he was obviously a flawed person. And maybe this brings some positive closure for his family and there's some element there where there is going to be joy among the people who played him and they think of him as a player and not necessarily as the person and that's that's the little slice of joy I can find in all this. It's a small one. To show grace, I need to see remorse first. I feel like Pete Rose never expressed remorse about any of the terrible things he did.

That to me is sort of like step one. You want grace? Show remorse. Now, the Hall of Fame candidacy, Rose will be considered by an era committee, right? So Dick Allen and Dave Parker were just voted in last December by an erairess committee. Those committees are made up of 16 people, members of the Hall of Fame, baseball executives and veteran writers.

So I don't think you'll get old enough fast enough to be on the committee. So this one won't be more hands. But I do think that the, the, the, the committee might be predisposed to putting it in. It just guessing from the quotes that we're seeing from veteran players. Right. Right. Right. And Jason Stark pointed this out, you know, Barry Bonds, Roger

Clemens have been eligible to, Shoeless Joe Jackson was also reinstated as part of this, has been eligible in the past and they have not been voted in by these committees so far. I would hope that they would, because I think Star Wars is not quite as bad as betting on the games you're managing or playing in. I would agree with that. So it's not the end of the story

to say the least, but it was a big deal. And as far as the other players, 16 others, they weren't all players, actually. But the 16 other people reinstated by Commissioner Rob Manfred that deserves like a separate conversation. They their stories, I feel like

deserve more attention than being a footnote under Pete Rose's reinstatement So I think we'll save that but they like they think through a world Yeah, I don't I don't think that's gonna be a series of oh well we should They threw it they threw the game for money Okay, mmm good. Yeah, let him back in I guess I'm like, mm, okay, mm, good. Yeah, let him back in, I guess.

Mm-hmm. Again, it comes back to the why do this. This is about political points, maintaining the antitrust exemption. It comes back to power and money. It's not about the issue itself, as far as Rob Manfred goes. I think the dollar comes first.

That's everything you see in Maniford's actions, put money over everything. I think a lot of the bad stuff in baseball actually flows from that antitrust exemption. That's a longer story to unpack. This is the loaded start to the show. Yeah. But as soon as that story broke, the audible,

ugh, coming out of the, I got there, are you okay? It's like, yeah, but no, but, uh, nah, nah. So that's where we're at. And then there was other baseball stories, other news, the things we normally talk about on this show. Also, that didn't stop. So let's get through a few of those items here. Corey Seeger is back on the IL with a hamstring strain.

And we're getting to the point now with Corey Seeger where it's baked into our expectations and projections. It's known that this is just part of what you get. And now that he's 31 years old, especially it's probably not going to get better as his career continues. We continue to see around the injuries, one of baseball's premier hitters. Look at what he's done so far this year.

It's only been 26 games. He's popped six homers. He's got the 15% barrel rate, low strikeout rate again. Corey Seeger is an elite talent, but he is increasingly becoming one of those players who has well below average health, and it is extremely frustrating to see on an annual basis because I think we're being robbed of a guy that maybe would be putting together Hall of Fame worthy stats over the course of this career. I feel like we're gonna fast forward

to the end of Corey Seeger's career. Hopefully it's eight to 10 years away and not five or six, but we're going to say if he just stayed healthier, he could have got there. I feel like we're right in the middle of that right now. Yeah, I was just talking about this, you know, at the game last night, a little bit about my personal inclination is to like whippy kind of loose players. If you want a sort of example of what I'm talking about, maybe somebody like a Fernando Tatis, you know, that body type where it seems like he can turn fast, but he also can react and move in different dimensions. And he just seems like a sort of whippy athlete. Seeger is a little bit more to me like a tight athlete. And I don't

know what the words are that I'm looking for. Like, I'm sure there are better words if you study this sort of stuff, if you're a trainer, if you're, you know, a doctor, but he's tight. And I think that baseball does reward tight players, tight movers to some extent, because it's a rotational sport. Right. And so Seeger can move fast in a rotational way, and that is only a benefit to him. fast in a rotational way and that is only a benefit to him. However, I think in this case it has led to if you look at where the injuries are they're all sort of like core leg, you know, like he's got a lot of I think he's had two abdominal surgeries, you know, he's definitely had

hamstring a lot of hamstring a lot of this is the middle of the body and the engine for turning. What I don't know is, could he have the same body he has now and have the same strengths that he have now and not have the injuries? If he changed something about the way he, you know, practiced or worked out or whatever, I would suggest probably not because he's been with the Dodgers and Rangers. He's had different trainers, he's had different people talking to him. I'm sure this is something he doesn't want to have happen. Right.

So he's thought about this. There's something interesting to me there in terms of like the difference in body types and how that has maybe contributed to this injury problem. Yeah. Yeah. You go back to the time with his Dodgers. He had that arthroscopic hip surgery way back then. It was 2018 now, several years in the past. You're right. It is a lot of stuff concentrated in that lower core around that area and having leg problems.

It has to all be related in some way, but I don't know if there's a way, if there's a combination of specialists out there that can find a way to train him differently and to keep that from being a problem. I'm always like, do yoga. Yeah, just do yoga. I'm sure he's tried yoga. I think just do yoga is like two steps away from the just add a cutter suggestion. Learn to code.

If everybody on the planet did yoga, learned a code and added a cutter, we'd be an unstoppable group of humans. We would be amazing as a society. Wow. That's it. We should put that in a book, man. That's a book, man. Other news to get to here. Roki Sasaki placed on the aisle with a shoulder impingement and it's to me kind of the best. He should do yoga. He should be doing yoga. He should also have a cutter. Yeah well we did we just said he should have a cutter. He should probably learn to code while he's on the aisle right it'll help him post baseball career. But realistically I I think the IL stint, and I'm not even suggesting it's a phantom IL

or anything like that, it sort of answered the question in the option C sort of way. I forget how many options we actually had last week. We talked about him with Trevor on our Thursday. Like send down or? Send him down, bullpen, option C, oh, he's actually not healthy.

And we had questions about Sasaki's health last year because the stuff ticked down. And I would just say that based on what we've seen from him, that all tracks, like he's still probably not quite right. And while it seems like a relatively minor injury, at least as it's currently reported, I have that kind of ominous cloud in the back of my head saying like, is this really gonna be a quick turnaround

or are they gonna maybe slow walk the recovery and maybe send him on a slightly longer rehab assignment even if he's well enough to return at or near the 15 day minimum? One thing that kept me from putting him any higher and I had him high because the presuppositions and protections were so good, but one thing that kept me from putting him any higher, and I had him high because the presuppositions and protections were so good, but one thing that kept me from putting him higher

was I thought you'd top out at 120 innings or 130 innings and that even probabilistic thinking couldn't push you past that because we knew he had some injury scares in Japan and he never really put up bulk over there. So this is part of one of the downsides of drafting him early. The other is that, you know, the fastball shape hasn't been there. So as he's dropped in VELO from 98 in his first start to 94, eight in his last

start, that's four ticks. Like, come on, that's a big deal. Especially if you don't have good shape on your fastball and you see the strikeout rates, like in his last outing, he didn't strike out a single batter. So like if I'm in a redraft and I don't have injuries slots,

I don't think I'm sticking around for this. If I'm in a keeper league, obviously, but you just gotta hold on because there's still an elite sweater in there. You got the nudge you needed in Redraft to move on if you don't have the benefit of IL spots. I think it was going to be hard to do that without an IL stint or a clear demotion to

the minor leagues. Hopefully it turns out to be relatively minor, but again, the cloud of pessimism is creeping into the back of my head. I did see Ian Happ landed on the IL, which prompted the Cubs to call up Moises Ballesteros for his MLB debut Absolute unit. Yeah Ballesteros. We saw him in the fall league the game I saw he didn't look great defensively behind the plate That's one look. I'm not a scout, you know,. Off to a great start at AAA this year, only a 10% K rate, 43.8% hard hits, pot four homers, stolen three bases.

I think that's the interesting thing, we've seen it a couple minor league stops. Ballesteros steals some bases, and that is not something you would assume when you see him walk into the park. Which, I'm not trying to make fun of him, I just think it's like, you just would expect a zero in that column,

and it's not like that. Undercover athlete. Yeah, so I'm curious to see how much they're playing I just think it's like, you just would expect a zero in that column and it's not like that. Undercover athlete. Yeah, so I'm curious to see like how much they're playing him without Hab, because they can actually use him a bit in the DH spot. The combination of his strikeout rate and his bad ball quality is really enticing. And then on top of that, what's really interesting,

and the walk rates have gone down a little bit as he's advanced, but he's always had at least average and sometimes Plus walk rates, which is not what you often you get sort of we were talking about Yannier Diaz Like the kind of guy who makes a lot of contact makes hard contact and has like a 4% walk rate 18% strikeout rate There are guys like that, you know, but when you start talking about oh, let's give him out rate. There are guys like that, you know? But when you start talking about, oh, let's give him, you know, 18% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate and quality contact, then you start putting him in like the real quality hitters in this league, you know? And so there's real upside in the bat, even if there's real questions about this. And like another way you can say it is he's never,

I mean, he has played now four played appearances appearances but given how little he's played in the major leagues he still has league average projections as a bat like right off the bat so that is really enticing I like a lot about this I'm not sure that I do see a place for him on this Cubs team once everybody's healthy though, mostly because Seiya Suzuki is best cast probably as the DH. Michael Bush is playing well and I don't think Ballesteros is unseating. Even if Carson Kelly is Mirage right now, Miguel Amaya is good. I don't see Ballesteros unseating either of those guys.

So without a major injury to Bush or Suzuki, I think this is a short term thing. But a temporary lift if you're looking for a catcher eligible player who might play in the time while Hap is on the IL. Other news and notes on our way out of this segment here, Rich Hill is back, I can't believe that. That kind of got lost in the excitement

of everything else happening on Tuesday. I can't wait to see him in the clubhouse again. I'm gonna say, Rich Hill does yoga, right? 45, pitching the big leagues, definitely does yoga. We can just assume that, we don't even have to verify. That might be my first question. First question. What's your secret?

Do you do yoga? I think the look on his face, if he doesn't, it's gonna be great. Yeah, he might not. We did have one follow- face, if he doesn't, it's going to be great. He might not. We did have one follow up. Our episode on Monday, we mentioned a PED suspension for Addison Barger, and there was a lot of confusion, a few questions about that afterwards. We had to do some digging to follow up on this because it was like a very lightly reported

suspension that actually took place all the way back in 2019. Yes, it's really strange because there isn't really a published story on it. And in fact, in some published stories that have a list of suspensions, he's not listed. So I get why we got some pushback. But if you we did some sleuthing, you looked at his minor league transactions page and there is a restricted list, a stint in 2019. And I checked with a source who did confirm that he was suspended in 2019 for amphetamines use. It's rookie ball, he's a young guy. We were even debating whether or not amphetamines use

is a PED at some point in this conversation with my source. So maybe those things are mitigating. I think that's part of why we took those, those, that piece out of our edited podcast, but it is, I guess, a fact that there was a suspension and it was under the PED program at the very least, but it may, it wasn't for one of those words with lots of vowels in it that we've come used to. Something entirely different.

So we still remain very positive about Addison Bumgarner, Addison Bumgartner's, we still remain very positive about Addison Barger's future with the Blue Jays and it's just hopefully just a sort of a footnote in his career. Yeah, hopefully onward and upward seems to be the case in the year since anyway and taking this opportunity with the Jays and running away.

So to clarify that because there was some confusion about that coming off that episode on Monday. Yes, a little update from, you know, in the clubhouse, somebody asked me over at Little League the other day, if Tyler Rogers would happen with the white cleats because Tyler Rogers used to wear white cleats when he pitched. And part of the idea maybe was that he releases the ball from near his feet.

And so maybe that could be deceptive to the hitter. He no longer wears the white cleats. I asked him about it. And he said, it's because the white cleats that they offer him are quote unquote plastic and somehow not comfortable anymore. And I said, well, did you notice a difference after you switched to gray? And he goes, not really. And he said, you know, if I really needed white cleats to be in the big leagues,

I think I'd be in trouble. Interesting statement to say from a guy who probably has the weirdest, funkiest release point in baseball but. I think we could give him that title, I think that's fair but yeah interesting that that changed that was a interesting theory at least as to why he was wearing them in the first place. I'm gonna agree with Tyler Rodgers on this one, I don't think that would be enough to flip the switch from non big league Or to big league you're hiding the ball in your white cleats as unusual as that delivery is

I'm just happy there wasn't a rule change I mean, you know that there are rules about sleeves and and tattoos and all sorts of things for pitchers So I'm happy that baseball didn't come in and say you have to wear gray Shoes now. Yeah, I'm actually a little surprised that wasn't actually what happened in this instance Glad he just chose back to wear them on his own because shoes are shoes as it goes for for baseball players Now it is our pleasure to be joined by Chandler Rome Chandler covers the Astros here at the athletic Chandler Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you guys for having me. What's up?

The Astros are in a weird place right now. We started to wonder around this time last year if the dynasty was finally starting to crack a bit at the foundation. And they rallied back. They made the playoffs, got knocked out by the Tigers. So it wasn't quite the same exit from the postseason that we had grown accustomed to seeing from this franchise and more change of course in the offseason the big trade sending

Kyle Tucker to the Cubs getting Cam Smith back as a centerpiece that deal of course got Isak Paredes back in that trade as well. Let's just start with Cam Smith 30 games into his big league career you know 30% K-rate but not really a surprise to see that for any player seeing big league pitching for the first time, especially when you consider how quickly he moved through the minors. What are you seeing from him on a day to day basis? And where do you think the Astros are at in terms of their comfort level with how he has started his big league career, given the importance he seems to have in this organization?

Yeah, we'll start with the positives first. Um, he is a natural in right field. I think I looked at Sports Info Solutions DRS this morning. I think he's the fourth best right fielder in baseball. I think he's got like five defensive runs saved already. This dude was not playing the outfield until like two and a half months ago. He is a natural out there. You can see his athleticism just kind of open up. Like he is taken to it very quickly to the point where the Astros are hitting him balls in center field. I don't think that's something they want to do in the short

term, but I think it's something they're keeping their options open for maybe the long term. They're hitting him balls in center field. He has taken right field so well that they think he can translate to any position. So he's done very well defensively the way he's handled himself just his persona and the way he's handled himself, just his persona and the way he's carried himself on a day to day basis,

he is not overwhelmed up here. Everyone in the clubhouse loves him. His makeup is off the charts. He is really ingratiated himself well into a big league clubhouse that has a lot of veteran players in it. But at the end of the day, you don't get lauded for makeup and stuff like that. You get lauded to produce and he hasn't produced offensively. Nothing under the hood looks good either.

If you look at his baseball savant page right now, it's a lot of blue. I think what he got lauded for in spring training so much was his discipline. He was laying off pitches. He was working long at bats. You could tell he could recognize pitches out of hand a lot quicker than maybe

guys of his age and experience level. When he got to the big leagues though, he tried to kind of mimic that and I think the Astros want him to be more aggressive against pitches in zone and that's been a little bit of a struggle for him. You know, the hitting coaches have worked with him on getting his load and getting his hands started quicker because Cam Smith even acknowledged like I think three weeks into his seniors like yeah Like I I need to get started quicker up here like my movements and my motions are not quick enough up here I'm noticing that very quickly So they've had to work with him a lot on like doing some different things in his stance getting started quicker

So he can be out in front of the ball. A lot of his contact is to the opposite field, which is kind of his MO, which we've learned that's the kind of hitter he is, but at some point with a guy with this power, a guy with this looking like the way he looks, you kind of think he would pull a ball in the air every now and then just kind of really hit a ball up the middle or to his pole side and he really hasn't done that much. every now and then just kind of really hit a ball up the middle or to his pull side and he really hasn't done that much. It's been a struggle offensively for him, but at the same time, when you watch as a bats like he's not overmatched, he's not swinging at things in the other batter's box.

He's not pressing. This is not a kid that you look at. And if you would watch him for a week, say this kid needs to be in AAA, this kid needs to be in the minor leagues. I think that's going to end up being the ultimate destination here in the next couple of weeks unless he really turns it on. But it's been an interesting thing to watch. He certainly doesn't look like someone that is ready to be an everyday player in the big

leagues, but doesn't look overmatched. It's been an interesting first 41 games for Cam Smith. Yeah, there's a lot there. I mean, one thing that I do want to point out, you're excellent on the zone situation. He is basically almost 10 percentage points below average on zone swing percentage. So we've been finding out here on this podcast

that putting together zone swing with chase rate is actually a better predictor than just looking with chase rate is a real, is actually a better predictor than just looking at chase rate because in his case, he's a little bit, you know, overly passive. I just read an article on fan graphs about how Trent Grisham is being more aggressive in the zone. That's a big part of why he's breaking out. There's something in common here where he's an extreme not swinger.

The other part is you can look at his pull rates in the minor leagues. You're right. You know, he did not pull the ball. We don't have a ton of minor league data, but what we have, he has a 31% pull rate in the minors last year and at 40% his league average. So, and he hasn't, he's pulled a little bit more in the bigs. I would say there are some interesting things under the hood, like being able to hit a ball more than 110 already means that there's some good bat speed in there. You know, and I think you're right. Like the, it all seems like it's pretty decent, but a team like the Astros who are 21 and 20, you know, maybe this 22 year old should be in the minors. I hadn't thought, I thought he'd been doing enough to keep

his head above water and keep that job, but outfielder, you know, as an outfielder too, he's a little bit more replaceable. What kind of, I guess there's a, maybe a candidate on the same team to, to maybe take time away from him and Zach DeCenzo or, or is what, who is it that might. Push him off this roster. Yeah, you're right on it. You know, um, it's Zach DeCenzo who an older prospect, I think he's 20, I think he's just turned 25 actually.

Certainly doesn't have maybe the cache that can Smith does. It was prospect status type, but it's a guy they're very excited about his the ball really hard. Puts together good at bats again. An older guy that that has kind of outperformed the minor leagues and

probably should be on the big league roster and should be he is acquitted himself as a guy that can play every day. Now the last couple of days Joe Sp spot has been able to play cam smith and Zack dezenso together because Jordan Alvarez is still in the IL and Jose Altuve had a hamstring issue that kept him out for a couple games So Joe was able to make it work But when this clubs at full strength and Jose Altuve is in the left field there's only one spot for those two guys. And it's interesting because Joe Spada maintained

throughout spring training that they were not going to carry Cam Smith or Zach Dezenso on the opening day roster unless Everyday at Bats were available. All right. As we all know, the manager does not construct the roster. That is the general manager's job. And Dana Brown, you know, he was very open about this. He wanted to reward spring training performance. He wanted to reward guys that went out in

spring training and showed themselves well. Cam Smith got all the attention in spring training because of who he is. Zach Dezenso had a better spring offensively just stats wise than Cam Smith. So they carried them both and predictably, it's been hard to get them both in the lineup. There was a point you know Zach D'Azenzo they were very close to probably sending him out to get regular bats after the first three weeks of the season because Joe wanted to give Cam Smith the runway that

a 22 year old uber prospect kind of deserves and there was no there was no place to play Zach D'Azenzo but Zach but Zack Dzenzo's forced their hand the last 15 20 games the way He's looked I can see a scenario I don't think it's imminent but I can see a scenario within the next two or three weeks where if the Astros can find a Left-handed bat somewhere on the waiver wire if they can find someone in another org that they're willing to dump I can see them making that swap get a left-handed hitter in here, send cam Smith to either AA or AAA,

depending on what caliber of pitching they want in the face, let him get everyday at bats out there. Maybe let them work in center field, let them work more in an environment where the stakes are not as high as they are in the big leagues. But again, let me, let me reiterate, like cam Smith does not look like a guy that's overmatched. I just think right now, development-wise and skillset-wise, he probably needs to be working this out in the minor leagues. It really does feel like it's sort of a week-to-week thing.

We saw it last year in Milwaukee with Jackson Churio. We saw it a few years ago, I think, with Bobby Witt Jr., his first year in Kansas City. You give rookies that have that high ceiling, you give them six weeks, eight weeks sometimes to make the adjustments, and then things start to click. And I think they're right in that sweet spot right now, where if in these next couple of weeks

they don't get that next level they're hoping for, that could be something that leads them to give them at least a temporary look in the minors, especially if they're considering that move to center field, right? I think it's easier to get those reps in the minors than it is to get them at the big league level for the first time, but you've already mentioned

the aptitude Kam Smith has shown for making those defensive changes. It seems like there's a lot of ceiling here for him to tap into. As far as Jordan Alvarez goes, I mean, he will come back from the IELTS soon. It sounds like Thursday against the Rangers is the most likely expectation for that,

but what are the long- term concerns with this injury? They called it a right hand muscle strain. He just hasn't been himself so far this season. Is it this injury has been in the works for a couple of weeks? Is it something else that's been bothering him? What do you attribute the slow start to for Jordan? He's had pretty chronic hand problems. He's dealt with hand problems maybe throughout his career, and he's needed days off. He's needed I believe at least one IL stint in the past for his

hand. So this is nothing new. It's impossible to think that this didn't contribute a little bit to the slow start. Joe Espada has said as much. He doesn't want to put words in Alvarez's mouth. Alvarez hasn't spoken to us since he won the IL. But I mean it seems logical that if he's been feeling this that's probably why the numbers are down a little bit. You look at the underlying stuff, he's been a little bit unlucky. It hasn't been like drastic bad luck. But I mean, the hard hit rate still looks about the same. He's chasing a lot more. His problem is he's hitting 180. He's in like 180 against fastballs,

which is pretty, which is pretty on your Jordan Alvarez like that, you know, he's getting the same amount of fastballs that you would think, you know, he gets normally and he's just not doing much with them. He's not punishing fastballs like we have seen him do. I think part of it too, you know, early in the season, no one in this lineup was hitting, other than maybe Jose Altuve at the beginning, you know, and Jordan Alvarez had Christian Walker and Yiner Diaz right behind them, both of whom were terrible throughout the first month of the season. So Jordan wasn't

getting anything to hit. So I think that may be contributed to it as well. That pitchers were just like, you know what, we're going to live on the edges. We're not going to come in zone and we're going to just let Christian Walker and Yiner Diaz try to be as behind you when they're in huge slumps. And I don't know if Jordan put some pressure on himself knowing that, you know, with no one else is going right, he's got to be the guy. So I think, you know, you look at some underlying stuff, there is some luck involved here. But and I think the hand has something to do with it. But Jordan's in that echelon where I don't want to be flipping. But also, like if you want to be considered a top

five hitter in baseball, like you've got to be want to be flipping, but also like if you want to be considered a top five hitter in baseball, like you've got to be able to kind of overcome this stuff. The one pitch you're going to get to hit and you're a bat, you got to do some damage with it. And he just hasn't been able to do it early. I would not bet against him. I would assume it's going to return and water's going to

sink to its own level, but it has not been pretty to start the year for Jordan. I did not know that he'd been dealing with arm, with a hand stuff because I always think of needs with him. Unfortunately, you've got a lot of lengthy list of injuries you can think about and associate it with Alvarez. And he's, again, I don't think it's like a chronic, it's not a handmaid, we've asked that

as many times as we can. You know, I think it's just, he's got a couple things, he reported to spring training a couple of years ago and couldn't swing a bat for the first two or three weeks because of his hand. He's had a couple instances in season the past couple years where he's needed like two or three days off hasn't needed an IL stunt. But I think at this point I think with this one from what I understand, I don't think the severity was as bad as you know, some other ones, but I think

they just they said, you know what, it's may, whatever it was, like let's get it right. Like he's not producing now. Like, let's get it right. Let's give him some time. And I think this is a much a mental reset too, is maybe a physical reset for a guy that in April, it was the second worst month of his major league career behind, I believe August, 2022. That was the only other worst month he's had in his major league career behind, I believe, August 2022. That was the only other worst month he's had in his major league career.

He finished third NAIL MVP voting in 2022. So there is promise that this can turn around and he can get better. But it always kind of sticks out once at the beginning of the season. And it really felt like this lineup was more top heavy than usual because of the Tucker loss and the amount they're putting on Smith and having Alvarez not playing up to his typical level is having a pretty big impact. But it's not just him. You look at Jose Altube, you mentioned Christian Walker before, Yainer Diaz, I think they're all underperforming their projections to this point. They've had Jeremy Pena playing at just a ridiculous level. He's on 25 homer, 25 steel pace or very close to it so far. Have you seen anything in that group of Altuve,

Walker or Diaz that gives you pause or is that just kind of your garden variety, slow start through the first quarter of the season as well? I guess with Walker, it's a little bit like with Alvarez. He's not hitting fast balls. I think he's got around the same batting average Jordan Alvarez has against fast balls around 180. The thing about Walker that's really kind of accentuated his

slow start, he struck out 47 times this season. 30 of them have come with a runner on base and he has hit fourth or fifth basically every game and Joe Espada is giving a veteran guy, you know, as much leeway as he can here. Also, I don't know who he would move up to hit in the middle of the order to replace him, but you know, Christian Walker has talked about he has felt some pressure, uh, being the guy. I mean, he was, he was there acquisition this winter signed a

three year, $60 million contract and in a new place, they hit him and clean up from day one and there's been some pressure on him. And I don't think he's handled it at least in the first month, you know, as well as he'd like to, he looks better. He has looked better the last three or four weeks. The quality of contact, even when he was struggling a little bit, the quality of contact was okay. The chase is a little concerning. The whiffs have been a little concerning, but I don't think this

Astros fans all automatically want to point to Jose Abreu and how quickly that went south. I don't think this is a Jose Abreu situation at all. If for no other reason than Christian Walker is still an elite defender at first base, he has completely helped to transform this infield defense. So he's still got that going for him. You know, as far as Yiner goes, Yiner can be a difficult hitter to evaluate just cause he's such a free swinger.

He swings at everything and he's kind of like Altuve and the fact that he can get his bat on pretty much anything. But you know, he is, he and Altuve, there's some parallels of when they're going poorly, like they get into major swing mode. They get into major press mode of swinging out a bunch of stuff of not making really making pitchers come in zone at all. And Yiner has, again, I think you're seeing progress from both Christian Walker and Yiner Diaz,

but they started off so poorly that the OPS numbers are gonna be low until about mid-June, unless they keep, you know, really sustain this production. So I don't think all is lost in either situation. I think they just had awful starts and it really, really kind of, it accentuates when it's at the beginning of the season. I think I'm a little bit worried about Walker and I'll to be from an age

standpoint, but you know, I'm looking at his rolling, you know, chase rate and he was not chasing like this at any point last year. And so Walker or Altuve Christian Walker. So there's, there's like a definitely a pressing situation for him there and and Without to be like he just he has seemed so ageless like, you know, it just seems like, you know He's just gonna keep on ticking forever. But the power Output is going to be where we see the most aging for him I mean that's often that talk about the bell curve of a person's career and like that's how it took it came into this league

You know as a guy who might hit seven to 10 homers a year. Now, I think he has figured something out that he won't ever go back to that level, but I wouldn't be surprised if he maybe never hits 20 homers again in his career in a single season. And of course the, the speed is, is going down too. So I think those are the two critical aspects that are affecting him. And also, he is such a nose to his toes swinger that I wonder what will happen to his strikeout rate

as he ages. That's the one thing that doesn't age well. You've already seen it. The strikeout rate is through the roof. I mean, he had the highest strikeout rate of his career last year, I believe, and this year he's on pace to even shatter that. And that's been a talking point in the city is like, are we seeing the next?

I don't want to say the decline. I don't think decline is the right word yet, but are we seeing him transition into the next phase of his career? Um, we already are sort of, he's playing left field now. So, I mean, that's, that's one big thing, but. Next one would be like moving him in the lineup somewhere else, and that's problematic right now, because as you say, like, you don't really have

other options that can push him out of the top of the lineup. Right, and it should be noted that he asked Joe Espada to move out of the leadoff spot. He said so he could have more time to run in from left field to the dugout, got a little bit tired. Um, Huguetl Tué is really good at deflecting kind of storylines and stuff. Like, you know, that's why he that's according to him.

That's why I'm not playing that. And he, you know, he heaped praise on Jeremy Pena, who has been playing incredibly all season and has only taken off even more since he got in the leadoff spot. Have you seen anything with Pena that's different? Has he changed anything in his swing is set up or is this just a guy that's got the experience starting to put all the pieces together because I think we entered this season on this show saying, what you see is probably what you get.

We had enough of a sample on Pena to say, okay, he's a good everyday shortstop, but he's not a star He's not a top 10 guy at the position and at least at the moment He looks like he could easily be a top 10 guy at the shortstop position this year Pena has been such a fascinating player to evaluate since he since he got up with the Astros Everyone looks at what he did in the 2022 postseason and for good reason, ALCS MVP, World Series MVP. People forget, people don't look at his numbers before that playoff, before that playoff run.

He was a league average hitter, just like he was in 2023 and 2024. He had the most well-timed heater I think anyone in baseball has ever had. And that puts expectations and pressure on someone that are basically unattainable. No rookie had done had done what Pena did. I think what also gets lost is that this dude barely played minor league baseball. Like, I think he had like 180 total minor league games. He never played in double. A. He played 30 games in triple A. Wow, starting shortstop on opening day.

He started 2021 in the complex for some reason, so he broke his written. No, he broke his wrist in 2021. Missed most of that season. 2020 obviously didn't play at all and then 2022 he's starting in the big leagues at shortstop and I get he was an older draft guy, but he went to Maine. I don't know what conference Maine draft guy, but he went to Maine. I don't know what conference Maine is in, but they weren't,

he wasn't facing anything great in Maine either. So while he was an older guy, while you know, he has the pedigree of having the dad that played in the big leagues, he has the bloodline like he just hadn't played much. And I think that got lost in, you know, the aura of what he did in 2022. And then as you looked at 2023 and 2024, like everything under the hood got better.

A lot of his peripherals got better. The chase rates got better, but what didn't get better was the OPS. What didn't get better was the slugging and the on base percentage. So it didn't translate to results. You know, he came into spring training last year, had overhauled his stance. He really quieted it down. He used to have a bat waggle like in the back. He quieted the bat down, was really kind of quieted things down. And you know, for the first 40 or so games of last year, he was excellent. Like he was almost hitting 400 after 40 games last

year and then it kind of fell off a cliff. So you take everything with a grain of salt as he's doing this the first 41 games of this year but you know you start to look at it his swing rate is down almost 7% he is not swinging near as much as he used to his strikeout rate is down 6% and he's one of the best hitters in baseball against four seamers he's got a run value I believe of 8 against four seam fastballs so he's one of the best hitters in baseball against four seamers. He's got a run value, I believe, of eight against four seam fastballs. So he's getting fastballs, he's getting more fastballs hitting at the top of the order, and he's not missing them. And he's able to pick his pitch, he's staying in zone well,

he's not chasing as much as he used to. I think it's real, but then again, I have seen Jeremy Pena go through these stretches where he looks like he's on the precipice of a breakout and then it kind of goes away. So I'm not done trying to predict what Jeremy Pena is going to do, but just suffice to say it has been difficult to analyze him from kind of a holistic standpoint since he became the Astros shortstop. That's fair. And yeah, America East is the conference that the University of Maine plays. And it is D1 ball. But if you guys can name any other team in that conference, there are eight total. I would be surprised. Can I try Stony Brook? No, that's a great guess, though, because the UMBC, UMass,

Lowe, Albany, Binghamton, Bryant and New Jersey Tech, the teams in the conference. New Jersey Tech. Wow. OK. Something tells and New Jersey Tech. The teams in the conference. New Jersey Tech. Wow. OK, something tells me New Jersey Tech didn't have a guy throw a 95 on Friday night that Jeremy Pena could face. Probably not. Maybe. I mean, maybe in the next 10 years, you never know. Everybody's throwing harder. So eventually velocity will peak at that level.

But we're not there yet. Let's talk about things that are going right on the pitching side, despite injuries. By war, the Astros have a top 10 rotation and a top 10 bullpen so far. But the injuries piling up early in the year was one of the scenarios that I thought could make things really difficult on this team. We're kind of seeing that now that Hayden Wisneski has joined Spencer Arigeti on the IL. We've already seen Ryan Gusto come up, look good at first, had a rough outing last time out that has made the ratios look pretty ugly If they have to dig deeper into their minor league depth for starting pitching, where do they go? Is anybody on the radar that we should be excited about that could get an opportunity?

Well, AJ Blueball came up already made his big league debut in a spot start against the Tigers He's on the 40-man roster. I'd imagine well well, so I guess we should really start with who's going to pitch tonight. We're recording this on Wednesday, the last day of the Royals. Here's Colton Gordon will make his big league debut tonight in a spot start as part of this six-man rotation. 27-year-old lefty from UCF, you know, had Tommy John right when the Astros drafted him, so it was kind of a work in progress, an eighth-round draft pick. Jennifer strikes. He didn't appear in many prospect rankings kind of outside. So I think he's just kind of maybe a little bit more of an org guy. But you know, AJ Blueball is a guy that they're pretty excited about.

Came up, gave up seven runs in his big league debut. Only two of them were earned. Jeremy Pena actually botched a double play behind him in an inning that really unraveled on him. So they're excited about him. Miguel Yola is a guy that's in triple A right now striking out the world in the PCL. How's the command? Not great. Yeah, that's the thing. They were really excited about him coming into spring training. Like he was like,

he was the guy that they were all circling. Like this is our next guy. He didn't pitch well in spring training at all, got hurt in the spring breakout game. He started that game, had to walk off the mound, the shoulder injury, but he's better now, striking out the world and the PCL. So I would imagine he's probably on their radar too. And then if you want an under the radar guy, remember Tyler Ivy, just he made a spot start in 2021 in Arlington, actually retired a few weeks after that, just kind of got burnt out with baseball just kind of got burnt out with baseball kind of got burnt out with

Trying to do everything he made a comeback And he's pitching okay in triple A's rotation He's not on the 40 obviously but an older guy that has pitched in the big leagues before He's pitching okay in their rotation if they get down to it and I could see Tyler Ivy getting a shot as well They don't have you know a lot of their guys in double A. I don't think already for like that Jake Bloss fast track. Remember they fast track Jake Bloss last year when they needed a starter. You know, you look at Jose Flurry, maybe him.

He's pitched well for double A Corpus Christi has a good change up that a lot of people are excited about. But I think he's still a little ways away. So those are probably some names, Miguel Lloa, Tyler Ivy, AJ Bluebaugh, and maybe Jose Fleury. The sort of pecking order is fascinating to me because you have these org guys, you have these like, oh, you know, and this is, you know,

this is about every team, not just the Astros, but you have this like, do we have a long-term opening in the rotation? If you do, then maybe it's Blue Ball? If I'm reading correctly, like if you had a long-term opening and you wanted to like, here's the next Astro, maybe Blue Ball? I would probably say Blue Ball. I'd probably give Blue Ball the nod over Gordon, but who knows? I mean, Gordon throws a bunch of strikes, you know, he's an older guy that they like. I mean, it's not

as if this is like a pity spot start. I mean, he's earned this. Looks like he throws six, six pitch types pretty regularly. He throws a bunch. He's going to be around the zone. He's pitching the WBC for team Israel. He pitched in a sold out loan depot park. I believe he faced the Dominican Republic.

So he has been in big atmospheres and I don't think tonight's going to scare him, so to speak. But yeah, I think if there was a long-term need, I think Blue Ball is probably the guy big atmospheres and I don't think tonight's going to scare him so to speak but yeah I think if there was a long term need I think Blue Ball is probably the guy that they would look to but again I don't this foreign system's not in a position where they're producing you know guys they can just plug and play plug and go but we say that a lot with this pitching with this pitching infrastructure and there's just guys that come out of nowhere that just somehow end up being really good there. They're just really good at that. So there's probably someone that I have not even mentioned that I'm going to get a phone call

about in like two days. Be like, oh, hey, like you didn't talk about this guy. He's actually going to, he's actually going to come up next week and we're going to spot some and then somehow we'd be pitching like game for the ALDS. Yeah. Like the Blanco situation or whatever. But, but Gusto to me, me like the gusto to me seems like a short-term patch Because I look at his arsenal as like the it's fastball heavy and then the fastball when he's not in release stints Is not as good He doesn't have a ton of secondary stuff that misses bats his fastball can miss bats But the secondary stuff is just not evolved yet to the point where he has the

one pitch he can go to get out of zone swings, things like that. So teams are forcing him to come in zone with a fastball. That is good. His four seamers good and the numbers and the metrics suggest it's good. But when you're one pitch pitchers don't survive in the big leagues for very long. And that's what Ryan Gusto to this point feels like. So he's got to evolve a little bit, maybe get the secondary in the spin a little bit better. Well, last question before you go Chandler,

kind of looking ahead two and a half months of the trade deadline, thinking about the Astros as a team that under Jim Crane's ownership doesn't really ever want to be anything other than a buyer. What upgrades do you think they'll be seeking between now and then to make this roster more equipped for the playoff run? They're pretty obviously a bad short Maybe even too bad short and they're very very right-handed now with Jordan Alvarez is on the IL

Which means 12 of their 14 position players that are active right or right-handed hitters and the two that aren't One of them is a switch hitter and backup catcher Victor Caratini. The only true left-handed hitter on the roster is Cesar Salazar, who is the third catcher who is here for no other reason than to give Joe a spot of coverage. That is right-handed. So like, again, like I wrote a story last week,

like how long can this go on? Because the Reds came to town last week and they had Andrew Abbott slated to start on Sunday, a left handed pitcher. And Terry Francona did what all of the 28 other managers in his league would do is like, I got a right hander coming up and we got an off day tomorrow. All right, Andrew Abbott, you're pitching Tuesday. Sunday, this right handed pitcher and look, the Astros killed Chase Petty, but it

was his second big league start, but they're playing the matchup because the Astros can't create a platoon advantage. Joe Espada is pretty handcuffed late in games. If they go to good leverage right-hand relievers, he has nothing on his bench to counter with. I don't know why a manager would willingly and choose to throw a left-handed pitcher against this team. So they need a left-handed bat and they need it probably now. They can't maybe afford to wait until July,

but presuming this is the roster they take to July and presuming they're in contention. Yeah. Left-handed bat will be at the top of the list. You can never have too much pitching. Hayden was, you mentioned Hayden was Nesbys on the IL with quote, elbow discomfort, end quote. Apparently the first MRI they took, the swelling and everything was so bad that they're gonna have to let it calm down

before they go back and look, which I mean, we can all kind of read between the lines on that. Again, I hope it worked. I hope I'm wrong. I hope I hope Hayden can can get back quick But you know you have to plan as if that's gonna be a long-term absence and you know Spencer Arigatis still has a cast on his right thumb. Lance McCullers is not looking great I mean, it's two starts after two and a half years away They hope it can get better

But I don't know. And look, Hunter Brown and Fraumer Valdez, you put those two in the top of the playoff series and you feel really good. But you have to get there first. You have to get there. So like, I would think that, you know, if they can find a, a you say, Kikuchi type,

maybe not give up what they gave up. I mean, now that trade has aged pretty well, given where those three prospects in the Blue Jays system are now. But if they can find someone to just take the ball every fifth or sixth day, get them into the sixth inning and be okay. Like I think they'd be open to that. But I don't know what they're trading because we have this discussion every year. This is if not the worst farm system in baseball, the second or third worst farm system in baseball, they don't have much on the major league roster that is would be maybe attractive to other teams. I don't know how

other than the ones they want to keep right. I don't know how other teams feel about Chas McCormick. I don't know how other teams feel about Mauricio Duban. But like you start to look at the big league roster and it's like, there's not much they can trade from here. And then you go to look at the big league roster and it's like there's not much they can trade from here And then you go to the farm system. It's like we've traded everyone we can It's gonna be a fascinating deadline if if they get to the deadline and they're I don't know Three and a half four and a half games out of a wild card like it's not in Jim Crane's DNA to concede

It's not in Jim Crane's DNA to sell they've It's not in Jim Crane's DNA to sell. They've never sold outright since Jim Crane's been the owner. But you kind of wonder, do they stand pat? Do they make a marginal acquisition? Or do they go for it? Because they're probably losing from Ravelle Desenferi Agency this winter. Jose Altuve, as we just discussed,

is not getting any younger. Jeremy Pena is nearing a breakout and he's getting more expensive. And if this franchise has shown us anything, he's probably not gonna be here for much longer either. So it's gonna be a fascinating kind of crossroads when the deadline comes, depending on where this team's at

as to what they wanna do. Yeah, I'm excited to see what they end up doing because of the limited resources they have in that system to go out and make trades. And if you were going to add payroll midseason anyway, then you would have probably just resigned you say Kikuchi instead of having to take a lesser pitcher on a similar salary to solve that problem. But hey, aren't they really close to the luxury tax?

They made Brendan Rodgers sign an advance consent form. He making two million dollars. They kept him. So it's good. But like they were so worried about the luxury tax that they made him sign an advance consent form. He'd make him $2 million. They kept him, so it's good, but they were so worried about the luxury tax that they made him sign an advance consent form so they could get rid of that salary if they wanted to after 45 days. But instead of doing that,

they traded Rafael Montero to the Braves. Just to save money. Offloaded $3.5 million of his bloated salary that Jim Crane gave him. So depending on what outside approximation you look at, they're probably about five to five and a half million under the first threshold. And look, nothing they did this winter and nothing they have done in the first month or so of this season has

demonstrated anything but the fact that they want to stay under it. They don't want to cross the luxury tax. So that'll even make the deadline even more difficult because I think Jim Crane would be willing to pay the luxury tax if he thinks this team is a no doubt like this team can get to the ALCS and make a run. Nothing that they have shown in the first month and a half suggests that that is this but the AL is so bad the AL West is not distinguishing itself as a murderers row. So, I mean, who knows?

Everyone has a chance at this point. So Jim Crane's been known to authorize some trade deadline splashes, some blockbusters. So I wouldn't count anything out, but the one thing I do feel comfortable saying is as of May 14th, they do not want to cross the CBT and they do not want to pay the tax again. Yeah, they got to play well.

And part of playing well is staying very healthy between now and then for that tune to change. Chandler, we appreciate your time in your insight. Let our listeners know where they can find you on social and where else they can hear you. I'm at Chandler underscore Rome on X. I'm on blue sky, too. I don't know my handle. I'm sorry. I should probably know my name. It's just my name. And's just my name, I think. And then as part of the foul territory network,

you can listen to crush city territory three times a week, myself and Tyler Stafford and Josh Reddick every now and then we get Josh Reddick on once a week too. So everything you want to know about the Astros, about their trade deadline plans, about why Jeremy Pena is elevating the ball more and about why Christian Walker can't put the ball in play

with runners on base. You can hear that all on Crush City territory if you so choose. Very cool. We appreciate your time today, Chandler. We'll catch up with you again soon. All right, thanks guys. Well, that's gonna do it for this episode

of Rates and Barrels. Thanks again to Chandler Rome for joining us on this episode. Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith for putting this episode together. You can find Edo on BlueSky, EdoSaris.beSky.social, and DVR.beSky.social. You can find Edo on BlueSky, EdoSaris.esky.social, and dvr.esky.social.

We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. He is yoked if you've ever seen him.