Rates & Barrels - Roman Anthony Gets the Call & NL Playoff Picture Check-In

Episode Date: June 10, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss the Red Sox's promotion of Roman Anthony and the future logjam in the outfield once Wilyer Abreu eventually returns from the IL. Plus, the return of Eury Pérez, the Brewers' upcoming promotion of Jacob Misiorowski, and a return trip to the IL for Bryce Miller.Plus, The Athletic's Dennis Lin drops by to discuss the Padres, including the rash of pitching injuries that have impacted the rotation, Xander Bogaerts' lost power, and how A.J. Preller could still find a way to make additions at the Trade Deadline in July.Finally, Eno and DVR take a quick look at the NL Playoff Picture in search of teams that can significantly change their direction in the next seven weeks.Rundown1:09 Roman Anthony Promoted by Red Sox13:01 Jacob Misiorowski to Join Brewers on Thursday as Starter20:06 Eury Pérez: Makes Return From Tommy John Surgery25:37 Denzel Clarke is Amazing30:53 Dennis Lin Joins the Show to Talk Padres47:48 June Check-In: NL Playoff Picture Connecting Buyers & SellersFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.sociale-mail: [e-mail] our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisGuest: Dennis LinProducer: Brian SmithExecutive Producer: Derek VanRiper Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, Tuesday, June 10th. Derek Van Riper, Inosaris here with you. On this episode, we discuss the debut of Roman Anthony, some podcast bad luck. Yesterday, as our episode was being processed processed we learned that Anthony was promoted by the Red Sox to make his major league debut in Monday's game so we'll discuss that. Yuri Perez is back from the 60 day IL. We'll talk about where his stuff is at right now and how he looked compared to previous opportunities he's had in the big leagues.

We're going to take a full scale check in on the NL wild card picture because we're about a little more than a third of the way into the season so I'm going to dig into some teams that are trying to push themselves into clear buyer status as the trade deadline is less than two months away. We're also going to do a bit of a deep dive on the Padres with Dennis Lin on today's episode as well so a lot of ground to cover Eno. Roman Anthony though, promoted by the Red Sox, part of the corresponding move there of course, Willier Abreu went on the IL with an oblique strain,

so that's what opened up this opportunity for Roman Anthony. But it was a debut as anticipated probably as Jack Caglione's arrival recently in Kansas City. We did see a nice 111.2 come back or happened to hit Shane Bos in or around the glute area. That was the highest EV of any bad ball in Monday's game. The hype is certainly as high as it gets for a prospect, especially for our Red Sox team.

It's still just not quite firing on all cylinders. So high expectations for Roman Anthony from day one. What did you see, though, in the debut? It's everything that he's done, which is take walks, make contact and hit the ball hard, albeit kind of maybe on the ground. That's the one thing he's been struggling with. He's got his ground ball rate. Roman Anthony does up from, you know, it was in the 60s when he first debuted. But he's been consistently in the fifties.

So he's going to be a guy who hits the ball hard and often on the ground, you know, a Christian Jelic comp is not impossible for me. Got a lefty with speed and power, but this little bit of an asterisk when it comes to how often he hits the ball on the ground. And I mean, hey, that would be an awesome outcome. Like Yellow Tests has an MVP. So Roman, I think, showed everything that you wanted to, even in a small sample. The only thing I worry about is that corresponding move.

Is that corresponding move? I do not like that corresponding move. He is up to replace an injured player and it's not some sort of injury. That's like, you know, he's out for the year. He's up to replace an injured player. I believe he goes back down when the player is back. So this is different in terms of the playing time outlook than what we saw with Jack when Jack got promoted by the Royals.

It was a clear he has a spot to call his own, and it's going to be his own performance, not roster dynamics that dictate whether or not this is a permanent call up. I looked at it just breaking down by start so far. Through 68 games this season, Jaren Durant has started 67 of them, not a surprise. He's their primary leadoff guy, always there.

Sedon Raffaela has started 59. Abreu has started 53 and the Christian Campbell's been moving around the infield. He has started 56 games. And since Campbell is not part of that outfield mix, it's Duran, it's Rafaela and Abreu that you're looking at for playing time. Duran's not going anywhere. So that's a locked in 100 percent share near 100 percent share of playing time going to him.

Abreu is playing really well. I mean, he's got a 321 OBP, 471 slug, 13 homers, four steals, plays a good defensive right field, which is important as well. And you attack that on top of what he brings. I think if there's a way for Roman Anthony to stick aside from someone else getting hurt, it's probably Rafaela moving into that super utility role. That

was something we were speculating on back in the spring and I guess the question is, is Rafaela showing you enough to hold on to that role when things get more crowded? I know this is a problem for probably three or four weeks down the road, maybe longer depending on the severity of that strain but usually the oblique strains take a little more than the 10 day minimum. Rafael is doing a few things better than we've seen before, right? He's got a 301 OBP. He's got a 12.1% barrel rate. It's supported by more hard contact. And we know he's a great defender at a premium position, too.

So that also puts a lot of pressure on. Yeah, I think he was even a little unlucky early on. I mean, to have a 289 babbittbit for all those nice things you said about him doesn't seem to fit, especially since he has legs. He's not like a such an extreme puller that the shift is stealing all these. So I think he's been coming around, you know, I went and spent a fairly large FAB on the on him in our listener league. And he's not my type of player all the way. Like he chases more than anybody. And there's a fair amount of pressure on his glove to stay

in the lineup. And Sedan Rafel also, you know, in June has a 294 average of 368 588 slugging and I know that's a tiny sample but may 266 303 394. So there's been this sort of progression where he's been you know walking a little bit more hitting for more power. I just think that glove baseline like all the people you named they're all good hitters. He's the best defender. If you go to Jared Duran, I think, in center field and Anthony on the corners, I would say that's a below average defensive outfield. And you might be hurting the major league progression of an important player instead of Rafaela. So yes, you're right. That is the battle. It's Anthony against Rafaela. So yes, you're right. That is the that is the battle. It's Anthony against Rafaela.

But Rafaela has a leg up in that his defense is so good. K-Rate's coming down to for as much as he has that free swinging approach, it's still a 45.7% O-Swing percentage is going to keep him at or near the top of that leaderboard, depending on where you put the qualifiers on it. But at 19.7% K-Rate, a massive improvement. So we are seeing some changes from Rafaela that make him a more well-rounded player. It's not surprising given how young he is, right? He's just 24. So the fact

that he's getting better shouldn't really be a shock to anybody. We should leave the door open for four of them to be on the roster. You know, because Rafaela's glove is so good, he could be the backup center fielder, he could play some days, you could try to mix it up. It's a little bit weird to have Roman Anthony in the big leagues and be sitting, you know, every third day. What do you think the Red Sox rank in Woba as a team entering play on Tuesday? I always, I'm afraid of them in pitching matchups. Now you're going to tell me I'm wrong.

I think that they are good. I would say they're top 10. Yeah, they're sixth 330 Woba for the season. I think there's there's something, I don't know, in the narrative that doesn't line up with the actual results. I don't I don't quite know like where that's coming from exactly, but you'd get the sense that they would be like a fringy top 10 or almost league average the way people sometimes talk about them as a team. I wonder if the Duran rumors that we're starting to see are real. You know, what the Red Sox could do that might be a

little bit interesting is buy for a little bit for this year, but next year too, like buy for a little bit for this year, but next year too. Like the crochet acquisition in a way, right? It's like, it helps you now, but it also helps you later. So somebody that is under team control for a while, I don't know, there aren't that many options though. Like I'm writing this starting pitching trade deadline piece and who's out there? Like Sandy Alcantara?

Actual tradable controlled pitching. On teams that are probably selling. I mean I guess you could wait for certain teams to come to the fore. Like I guess Sugano from the Orioles. Right, but that's not even close to what you'd be looking for in a Jaren Durant trade. And that doesn't help the Red Sox, I'm just saying in terms of available arms. I mean, do you go to the Pirates like would Mitch Keller, who's under contract for a while, at a reasonable deal? Would that be something interesting?

I would speculate that Bob Nutting would love to save some money since he's already offered a long-term deal to Keller and it's been signed. So I think you may have a motivated seller there, at least at the ownership level. If the Rangers fall behind now, maybe some stuff comes online there. Well, and that's where I think when we get to the NL playoff picture, I think finding some teams that are currently in that window where these next six seven weeks will ultimately determine their plans, that's going to open up a few more options for teams seeking pitching. The teams that are sitting with 10 or 15 percent

playoff odds six or seven weeks from now will be much more comfortable getting better for the future. So I think that's probably the thing that needs to happen to really unlock a little bit more. I mean, you can think about some of the teams that have extra depth. Philly, we talked about it with Andrew Painter and Mick Abel and maybe the possibility of going to a six-man rotation late in the year, but they could trade a starter, theoretically. What are they going to trade a starter for? A reliever? That doesn't make any sense. Just make the starter a starter theoretically. What are they going to trade starter for? A reliever? That doesn't make any sense. Just make the starter reliever.

And the rumored places that Durham might end up, like the Padres, that there's no link there for like major league pitching. There's no link there really for minor league pitching either. So if that's the plan, then San Diego won't be the answer. That's going to be interesting to see how they make the pieces fit. One last thought on Roman Anthony, though. I mean, is this a case where even if you're not throwing the kinds of bids we saw for Jack Keck, we own out there, do you get somewhat close?

Do you get two thirds of the way there in case someone else gets hurt, gets hurt or in case the Abreu injury news is worse than expected? I mean, because the possible payoff could be pretty significant for any extended period of time that Anthony has the opportunity to play in 2025. I mean, I think that the bids will be on the 30% level, just like Jack Hagelin. I think those will be the winning bids. I wouldn't be surprised if Anthony has about the same level of results in terms of how much it costs

to get him. Me personally, I would probably not go that far just because of this cloudiness of future role and how long it would be. If I was building my perfect bid for Roman Anthony, he would probably start at the 100 because even four weeks of really good play could be worth $100. I'm just doing this off the top of my head, but then you might add like $50 for the chance that, you know, he sticks after that or maybe another 100. It's hard to get to 300.

300 is like where I'm like, everything is lining up, you know, and I'm just not sure that last piece lines up for Roman Anthony in terms of what happens when Willier Brady is back. I think it's funny because a year from now, this will be long-term resolved. And it will be funny to look back at something like this and say, oh, man, that was the problem the Red Sox were dealing with when Roman Anthony arrived.

And now he's a fixture in the lineup. And I can't believe we ever questioned how his role was going to be. But I'm with you. I think you do have to worry about that, given the way he got on the roster and given the logjam that they've had this entire time. Saddam Ruffalo regresses it all and just stays as like a 70 WRC plus guy, then he's a backup and everything is solved. Oh, what is this I see on the wire? Breaking news. Breaking

news, breaking news. We've got breaking news out of Milwaukee country tell me DVR what is this breaking news Jeff pass in the ESPN reporting Jacob Mizorowski coming up and starting on Thursday which is very very on point for the conversation we had yesterday for me I'm excited he's coming up to start right away. That elevates my excitement level because knowing that there's probably some kind of innings cap there eventually, I had some questions about what the role was going to be, but they're going to go ahead and insert him in the rotation right away. We're looking at the projected starters grid. It looks like the Brewers are going to move Jose Cantana back from

Thursday to Friday, Freddie Peralta back from Friday to Saturday, maybe use a six man rotation for a little while. And they've done this before. They do all sorts of creative things with that starting pitching units. So Jacob Mizorowski coming up for that debut. I mean, look, we're excited about him. He was firmly in that conversation. I think you had him second out of the four pitchers that we talked about yet to debut as far as the

possible impact. So what does the Arsenal look like right now for Mizorowski a couple days before his big league debut? Here are the numbers I was citing the other day. These are his triple A stuff plus and location plus numbers. I put forth to you that you might be surprised if you hadn't heard the last episode that he has a 104 location plus on the 4-seamer, a usable 98 on the slider, and the change looks like he locates it well. So the only pitch that he really struggles to put where he wants it to is the curve, which I would suggest is not great, but it also still allows it to be a two-strike pitch for him.

If you imagine him against lefties, he can be four seam slider change with a reduction of the use of sliders. And if you can imagine him against righties, he can be four seam slider curve with not so many curves. He could can be four seam slider curve with not so many curves. He could be successful four seam slider. There's a lot of guys who are mostly four seam slider just against Reides. So I think the arsenal works. I think that the location concerns are maybe overblown and I'm fully into this. However, I will have to point out that I am fully stuff-pilled and that I make this mistake all the time, that I love pitchers too much that don't locate well.

When I watch him, I see that's a special arm. I think that's a really good, interesting fastball. It's really high VELO. I think the slider's a good pitch, even if the stuff plus has it around average. I think there's a workable arsenal here. He has really good numbers in the minor leagues. And so we'll have to see. We'll have to see how it plays out in the major leagues.

But I'm excited about this. I guess I don't think they'll go to a six man. I think that their use of Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester has, you know, they've used openers for Quinn Priester. They've used him, you know, for four or three innings at a time. They've used Chad Patrick for four innings at a time. So I think that it's more like three guys for two spots, a little bit like an outfield rotation, you know, where they're all designed to come up around the same time in the rotation

and somebody will start and somebody will follow and whenever the followers needed more more urgently then you just hope the next guy can pitch more innings you know i mean like three guys for two spots i think if there's any team in baseball that could figure out three starters for two spots it's this current milwaukee team i also have noticed that there have been some folks writing about the Brewers pitching depth. Maybe they're one of the teams that could trade a pitcher. Aaron Savalli could be a guy that gets moved, even if the Brewers are playing for right now. They need bats. There are teams that need arms.

Like, they could line up with someone at some point as well. They have an off day on the schedule on Monday to kick off next week before. Three on the road in Chicago, three on the schedule on Monday to kick off next week before three on the road in Chicago, three on the road in Minnesota. But as the schedule lines up right now, home debut for Mizorowski on Thursday, he'd make his next start against a really good Cubs team on the road at Wrigley. If that holds up, we'll keep an eye on. Little dangerous to roll him out there, but projections wise.

As positive as was about him as a pitcher pitcher if this has now become a fantasy conversation about like You know how much to how deeply did to go into this? I don't know that I would have dropped a really established, you know arm I don't off the top of the head know of somebody that that fits like this but like a semi struggling You know Established arm. I'm not sure I'd do it in 10 and 12 because you could drop that guy and then Mizorowski it's one start

and it's not that great or they, it's an okay start and they announced that he's going back down. And this was just like a, you're massaging the schedule sort of thing. I hope it's not that, but yeah, the would you rather is in this case, I mean, are you dropping, we talked about Lance McCullers going into the weekend. Would you drop Lance McCullers to take the flyer on Mizorowski?

That's a really good would you rather right off the bat? proud of myself, yeah No Really? Okay, interesting. I I probably would maybe There's a place for Mizorowski I'm a lot of 12 team rosters and I would guess that your worst pitcher on your bench Especially is someone you would drop to take the chance on Mizorowski 30% plus k-rates

I know the walk rate is a little bit of a concern doesn't give up homers has electric stuff Oh, by the way, the body comp you haven't seen Jacob Mizorowski Oh, by the way, the body comp you haven't seen Jacob Mizorowski It's kind of like a spore like a very like wacky you waving inflatable arm to man skinny tall like Whippy delivery I think you'd say like it's I think guys are gonna have a really hard time hitting Jacob Mizorowski So very excited to see where this goes other would mean Mitch Keller, you know drop Mitch Keller Yeah, I'm pretty careful with Mitch Keller usage. I've got him in some places and, you know, I usually just start him at home. So if it's just a home starter, then that's just basically a team streamer. I feel like you can replace that.

Yeah, a lot of people have one of those on their roster. So there's room, as we were saying before. We did see Yuri Perez return on Monday. A lot of stuff happened on Monday, actually. I'm just curious, the VELO was definitely there. Did you see something that significantly changed in Yuri Perez's shapes compared to when we saw him in the big leagues in 2023 before he had Tommy John surgery? Yeah, for the visual learners, I thought this would be worthwhile just to put up the movement profiles next to each other. You can kind of toggle these in baseball savant, but putting them next to each other, a couple

things emerge right away. I think the slider's back. It's just as hard as it was. It has even maybe a little bit more depth than it used to. Stuff Plus loves it. I think the slider is there for him. He has differentiated the curve more in his return from the slider than he used to. So now the curve is a little bit slower now, but it's a lot bigger and it got more sweep. And so I wouldn't be surprised if it was a sweeper, but he's got two distinct breaking

balls whereas before it was kind of one little mushy, one's 86 and does this and one's 81 and 82 and does this. This is a bigger differentiation. Lastly, he has added a sinker and I think that'll be really good for him. You know, I think it'll give him two fastballs, really electric fastballs, and the only thing that didn't go well was the command. I would say that yes, command come back slowly off of Tommy John and maybe you could have predicted this. I'll take that as a reminder next time I'm ranking somebody like this. I would also say that the Sandy Alcontra outcome is a little extreme. I know this is, it's like right in front of us,

right? But I think that's a little extreme. There are other guys that might have a little bit of a foible with the command when they come back and sort of figure it out. You know, Alcantara like losing a pitch to Tommy John with the slider basically is extreme. And I don't think I saw the same thing with Yuri. So I think Yuri will actually be fine this year. I think he'll have some dominant starts this year. Yeah, interesting, too. I saw the location plus number from the outing on Monday was an 89 in the range of what he was doing in 2023 lower than you'd like.

I think his overall number has been a 98 over the course of his time in the big leagues. So closer to overall average. I imagine that comes back. I came away pretty encouraged despite results that were less than what you wanted in a two start week with the first being against the Pirates. That felt like a really soft landing spot. So there were plenty of leagues where I said I'll take the chance. Maybe he'll go five at least one time in these two starts and get a win. Corresponding move by the way, Ryan Weathers to the 60-day IL with a lat strain.

That's a bit of a bummer for the Marlins to lose Weathers again as injuries continue to be a problem for him. Injuries can be a problem for Bryce Miller as well. He's back on the IL. He was trying to pitch through a bone spur in his elbow. They're saying it's elbow inflammation again, but knowing there's a bone spur there. Yeah, this opens the door for Logan Evans,

but I have a cloud of pessimism kind of floating over my head right now about the next update we're gonna get for Bryce Miller. Yeah, I just hope that it's bone spur surgery. You know, I know that there's been things stuff floating around that they don't take bone spurs out anymore. But if it's going to continue to lead to inflammation, I'm sure they're going to at least do some sort of exploratory arthroscopic surgery.

And I'm just hoping that it's not the full TJ. And we'll see. I mean, if there's inflammation, he has to wait for the inflammation to go down to really see what's going on there with an MRI anyway, and to some extent they know what maybe is going on in there. So I don't feel as Worried as I did when I watched Corbin Burns walk off the mound. Well, yeah, that was a pretty Clear my elbows aft situation like basically what he said I'm hoping that the because this is sort of a long term, oh, it's it's pain, it's inflammation that even if he does have a surgery that is one of the smaller ones, then maybe he can

come back for the beginning of next season. Anyway, no surgery is great. And so it's not great news overall. Logan Evans though, showed up in our AAA Stuff Plus report. He has a really good slider and I think he has a little bit of that, hmm, je ne sais quoi, pitchability that to some extent he's figured out how to use his best pitch and move pitches around it. So I actually like Logan Evans. I think he's a pickup.

You would prioritize him below Mizorowski though, right? Just to confirm something that I've already suspected. Yeah, I mean, you don't, when you look at Logan Evans profile, you don't, you don't see these good strikeout rates, you know, in the minors and or the majors. And, you know, even in terms of stuff like the slider being a 115, that's great. The curve being 170, that's great. But the four-seam fastball's a 67 stuff plus. So he could have some commonalities with like a Mitch Spence in a way.

I don't know, I'm trying to think of cutter-slider-curve with a really bad four-seam. Hey, Mitch Spence back in the rotation for the A's by the way. So deep, deep leaguers take note. He's actually starting on Tuesday against the Angels might actually able to hold on to that spot. Quick palate cleanser though since we were just talking about a bunch of injury related things how about Denzel Clark yet again maybe the best catch

we've seen ever is the catch of the year I would say for sure robbing Nolan Chanuel of a homer I mean fully extended on the top of the wall, reaching with his back to home plate and pulling that ball back in. Just insane. I think he's got three catches like that. Something like six defensive runs saved already playing center field for the A's.

Just a remarkable start to his career defensively. Yeah, as positive as his work at the plate, it's been negative to some extent. But, you know, I think that he could figure out the strikeouts. He's he's calming down. I think also moments like that for Denzel Clark. Could he bring that with him to the plate in a positive way? You know, feel a little bit more like I've been showing them that I belong

with the glove. Everyone was sort of celebrating me for that catch. Now, you know, maybe I can sort of calm down and be myself at the plate as well. So I don't know what his future is. And it's pretty interesting Claire because his projections are for like an 80 WRC plus basically but an elite outfielder even Kevin Keirmeyer had a slightly better WRC plus than 80 I think he still needs to do some work but it's a really exciting play it was really fun to watch yeah I mean there's power there's speed we saw a lower strikeout rate at triple A this year obviously with the ABS system that's always gonna be a little bit noisy but plenty to like with Denzel Clark at least defensively.

And that can always be enough to open up the gates for more playing time and kind of keep you in the lineup. Give that opportunity to whittle away at that K rate and become a long term fixture in that outfield. Some other news and notes here, Justin Martinez left his appearance Monday with tightness in his elbow. He is scheduled for an MRI. Just seems like the bad injury news keep piling up on Arizona. Yeah, it's not good news. Pick up your Shelby Millers.

Yeah, I guess that's the simple reaction on that one. Corbin Carroll by the way playing through some hamstring tightness he actually homered on Monday. That was a game the Diamondbacks won thanks to a Josh Naylor walk off so it's not all bad news for the Diamondbacks but they have been kind of grinding through it recently. We had some more breaking news just a little while ago too. Jordan Westberg and Cedric Mullins have been activated by the Orioles.

Heston Kerstad optioned back to AAA and Emanuel Rivera actually DFA'd to create space on the roster. Yeah, and Kerstad just didn't access the power. The kind of strikeout rate that he was showing is playable. 27, 28% strikeout rate is playable if you're showing power and patience. He's shown patience at different times, but this time he was chasing, not turning him

to enough power, 8% barrel rate. I don't actually think that's enough of a barrel rate with a 27% strikeout rate. You need to be above 10% on the barrel rate, I think, to make that sort of thing work. And then the chase rate was just really expanding up to 42% for Kirstad this time around. So I don't know, would I have an answer for him? When I looked through his swing tilt comps, he kind of was stuck in between where at his tilt, he needs to either have more bat speed or flatten up so that he can cover more of the zone. So I think he has a lot of work to do, which is unfortunate because when we saw Kirstad in the futures in AFL, he looked really exciting. We've had a lot of people be very excited about him.

But at 26, with 314 plate appearances under his belt, I don't really have a thing I can circle where I say this is why Heston Kirstad would be good in the future. Yeah, trending more towards that throw-in level for keeper and dynasty as opposed to someone you'd be really excited about going to get and had a little opportunity and just couldn't cash it in with all the injuries the Orioles have had throughout the first half of this season. I did see a note too, Ryan Helsley who blew a save on Monday was pitching through a toe injury that required a really uncomfortable insert in his shoe. He does feel great now despite the blown safe on Monday, so maybe things are trending in the right direction

So maybe we'll see a run of Ryan Helsey looking more like himself here in the months ahead rash of toe problems Francisco Lindor's toes broken and fractured and I feel like there's another toe I was Learning about mm-hmm. Yeah learning about toes. That's what we do here on rates and barrels Learning about mmm learning about toes. That's what we do here hun rates and barrels That's that's the toe. That's right. Thank you producer Brian producer Brian bailing us out yet again The rule of three it's it's just not it's not an example until you have three The rule three rule five lots of rules Now it is our pleasure to be joined by Dennis Lynn, senior writer covering the Padres for us.

And Dennis, thank you so much for joining us. Yeah, thanks for having me on. So Padres has opened up a series on Monday with the Dodgers and from 2000 miles away, it felt like a playoff atmosphere at the ballpark. This has become one of the best rivalries in the game. And what was it like at Petco was the vibe? Honestly, it felt a little bit like last October, kind of like we just picked up where we left off before, you know, Petco Park kind of went silent with those,

with the first of two back to back shutouts by the Dodgers, pretty much the Dodgers both then. But I mean, a 45 K on a Monday night. I know a school's out at the same time. I mean, it was Monday, so. How many Dodgers fans were there? Alden Gonzalez and I were trying to eyeball it. I think we settled on a third, which is at least for the Padres,

better than it used to be. It used to be like half before. It used to be. Yeah. But yeah, I think about a third, but maybe more. It was hard to tell, but everyone was loud and engaged. So I know it kind of blends together at that point. Steem's been surprising to this point.

I mean, they've had a lot of injuries they've been dealing with. And I was reading in your story today, you Darvish, he's just been on this unusual rehab track so far. Are we still looking at a few weeks before he's potentially ready to rejoin this rotation? You know, it's really ready to rejoin this rotation? It's really hard to say. I know internally there's optimism that they think he could make his season debut before

at the end of the month, but at the same time he's almost 39. He's had elbow trouble for years and years. He had a Tommy John surgery a decade ago, so don't want to speculate too much. But I mean, just like any other pitcher, he probably has some damage in that elbow. And for him, he's obviously got that history. So they're slow playing him, hoping that he can really provide whatever he's got left this season, maybe closer to the end of the season,

if that's what it takes. If they can get it back sooner than later, that'll be great. Because yeah, they're dealing with Michael King also being down, and they're pitching some very inexperienced pitchers at the back of the rotation. So anything they can get from Darvish at this point would be a plus. So I think if you're looking at the end of the month, maybe that's a realistic goal. But if that doesn't happen, we'll see. It's just kind of based on how he feels and how he recovers from every progressive

throwing session. So right now they're trying to let him dictate how his recovery goes. What's the concrete next step? It's not even a game yet. It's just a bullpen or something? The other day, he threw another up-down bullpen session at PECO. So I don't know. See how he feels? Yeah, see how he feels.

Maybe another one. Maybe he has another rehab start soon. Maybe a sim game. I don't think he's the kind of guy at this point in his career who wants to do too many rehab games. I mean, he went to Las Vegas last month and didn't come out of the feeling very good. I think he kind of cited the altitude and elevation out there. So we'll see. It's just kind of a day by day, week by week basis with them.

The pitching staff on the Padres is just a really interesting, interesting situation. I'm writing a piece that's going to be about which teams meet starting pitching the most. And I think I got to put the Padres in it, you know, in terms of the depth charts at Fangraphs, they're 14th overall, which is, you know, you can maybe manage that. But another thing I noticed is that they're only 17th if you look at the top three guys, and that's without King. So now, you know, King comes back, they're probably a top half rotation at the top. But it's not even obvious to me whether or not they want just a guy to get them to the postseason like a back end rotation guy.

If their sights are higher, do you have an idea if they're looking for impact in the rotation if they're just looking for an arm that can help them not be a rookie that's in the five slot. Well, they're run by AJ Prellers, so they always tend to shoot high if they can. Now it's complicated this year because they really, really need a left fielder. I think everyone's seen that for a couple months now. They need at least maybe two bats, including that left fielder, whoever it ends up being, assuming they trade for one. Sheets is batting well, just to be clear, it's the glove. I mean, we've seen him bobble

throws and face plant in the wall and he's not, he's not a very good outfielder. Yeah, yeah. Thankfully, I mean, he's, he didn't even miss a game after he had his last run in with the left field wall at PECO. So that's not ideal. They don't want to put him out there too much. It's not fair to him. I mean, he's a D.H. occasional first baseman. And he's been one of their most pleasant surprises on offense. But, yeah, with multiple really, really obvious needs, they don't have a lot of trade

capital left, including on the farm system. So it's kind of a matter of how do you balance this and then how does, you know, King and Darvish, how do they look like a month from now? So I think it's kind of a play by year kind of thing, but you know, preller has been connected to Jaren Duran for a, for a while now. So that kind of shows you where his head is at potentially on the trade market. So I wouldn't limit him to anything, even if it doesn't look like he has not much left in terms of, you know, farm system capital.

But I think on the starting pitching front, if they can just get like maybe a solid mid to back end rotation guy, that would really help, especially considering the uncertainty with Darvish and King. What do you think some of the structure of those deals is going to look like. I mean, the Padres financial situation makes this extra difficult on top of having traded a lot of prospects already. And even though they scout and add to the organization pretty effectively, like the cupboards a little bit light there. How do they handle this? Do they give up future value in exchange for a team eating salary on players they acquire? How much does that narrow the types of players they can actually add to fill these voids?

Yeah, that's that's a great question. I think they're over the second luxury tax threshold right now. So it's not like this team, you know, despite all the narratives and the offices and they are spending money and they do I think have some dry powder at the deadline, which partially explains why they really didn't spend much money outside of Nick Vivetta and even in the off season. He's only making like $4 million this year, so it's a really backloaded deal. It's going to be a little limited in that aspect too because already being over the second threshold, I don't know if I see them going over the third threshold. They've got this ownership dispute that's ongoing and when you have ownership at stake, I think teams just tend to be a little more conservative. But you know, this is the second to last year of Prellar's contracts. I think

you saw last deadline, he wasn't afraid to trade a bunch of prospects for a rental reliever and Tanner Scott. I know he also got Jason Adam, who's still been really good. But yeah, I don't know that they're gonna throw caution to the wind just with you know, how much money they have committed right now to luxury tax. Yeah, I wonder how far into the future AJ Prelor is going to have to navigate the mess of some of the long term deals they've had, because what's been happening all along is we've been looking at this and saying, this is really fun, this middle part's great.

But the end is going to be just an absolute disaster trying to get things back on track, at least as they are currently going. This is the lineup right now. I mean you mentioned the need for probably multiple bats. They're 21st in Woba and the core guys Machado, Tatis, Jackson Merrill, they're doing things that are within the norms of their projections. You could probably argue Tatis can be better than he's been so far. But the fact that he's healthy is huge for them I look at Xander Bogart says a guy that you know has pointed out many times his contract in particular he's eight more years on that deal it runs through 2033 and

What we're seeing is just no power whatsoever What's going on with Bogart's the plan always 32 but this sort of decline seems to be happening faster than expected It's a function of the shoulder injuries He's dealt with or something else going on or do you actually see a little bit of a turnaround in that power department? Maybe on the horizon for him. I don't see it on the horizon unfortunately, you know when they when they sign into that 11-year deal They they understood, you know, just like with man Machado another 11 year guy with the 11 year deal, they understood, you know, just like with man Machado, another 11 year guy with the 11 year deal, it's probably going to be pretty, pretty ugly on the back half of those contracts.

But you know, for Xander, that kind of back half seems like it's already arrived. Even you know, going back to last year, he fractured his shoulder one on the IL for significant period of time for like maybe the first time in his career. He's had some chronic wrist issues even coming into San Diego. So maybe those injuries are just adding up. He's, you know, 32. He's actually been fine at shortstop this year. They also don't want him there long-term. They got Leo DeRese who's,

uh, he based it on how the Potters promote prospects, probably not that far away from the majors. No, he's like 16. There's that lineup boost right there. It's Leo. Age is just a number in a age of colors, mine. But yeah, I mean, for Zander, it's been pretty disastrous again, just with the lack of offense.

And if you have him at your, if you penciled him into your number six spot in your lineup, I mean, just even three years ago, you'd say, we have maybe the deepest offense in the sport and now he's just not providing any power, like you said, Derek. So it's pretty concerning. we have maybe the deepest offense in the sport and now he's just not providing any power, like you said, Derek. So it's, it's pretty concerning. I think no fault of Zanders at this point, like he's working as hard as he can and no one would question, you know, how

much he dedicates to the sport, but just physically, I think, you know, he's clearly kind of a shelter himself of who he was in Boston. So the potteries and they're kind of stuck with that contract right now. It's probably going to hamstring them for years going forward. Yeah, but just as a revelant data point, this is the last year they're paying our Cosmer. Yeah, it feels like it's been the last decade. And by the way, they they just let go of J. Groom, who they used to unload an era Cosmer to to Boston a couple of years ago. You know, so yeah, that's they're kind of finally wiping their hands clean at all that

You mentioned having to rely on some Rotation depth I mean Stephen Kolek Randy Vasquez has been gonna more part of the picture in the last couple of seasons He's getting a lot of opportunity right now, too And then over the weekend I was watching the game on Sunday and this doesn't happen to me often but Ryan Berger was starting and I had to look him up I had to be like Ryan Berger I've never heard of Ryan Berger. Of that group do you see anybody even as they get a little healthier do you see a clear-cut favorite to remain the number five or the first guy up if they get everybody back at some point and these guys are all just

sort of depth. Well if we start with Randy Vasquez I mean I'm sure you know seeing the like underlying metrics on him like I don't I don't know how he's doing this he might be the most fortunate pitcher in baseball or maybe the most resilient pitcher because he gives up a lot of contact as the striking went out walks quite a few guys but he still has like a sub 40 or a so yeah, I don't see how sustainable that is going forward. I mean, you can talk to, you know, scouts and evaluators, you know, long term, he's probably a multi ending reliever, maybe just that's how he kind of he's kind of built. But you know, he's done an abro job of just kind of getting the most out of his really weird profile right now. And then Ryan Berger, it's only had a couple

major league starts. If you actually look at that 21 draft, I came out of that in the sixth round, out of 20 rounds, the Pottery's got Jackson Merrill, James Wood, Robert Gassel, Robert Gasser, excuse me, Alec Jacob, Berger and River Ryan. So really, really good draft class. And Ryan Berger is part of it. River Ryan, so really, really good draft class.

Ryan Berger's part of it. He looks like he could be, you know, fifth, sixth starter for a little while now. But again, it's still early. But I think if I were to pick one to answer the question would be it probably be right now, Stephen Colick, because he's got that sinker that really gets a ton of ground balls. It's got four or five other pitches. So he's he's got some stuff. He's not going to strike out guys,

but he's going to get ground balls and he's going to eat innings, it seems like, if he can keep this up. So that's what they need right now, because their bullpen, especially their high leverage arms, are pretty overworked and they need guys to kind of get deeper into games. So I think he has a good shot at sticking for a while.

I think Eno had a chance to catch up with Dylan Cease recently too. And in his own words, he said he's about to get hot. You look at the numbers for Cease, like this doesn't add up. It's like the opposite of Vasquez, the 472 ERA, 131 whip for Dylan Cease, 85 Ks and 68 and two thirds innings.

So there's a few guys on the roster and Cease is one of them where you're like, okay, better days are coming. It's easier to see it with guys like that. I wanted to ask you one more question about this system. And we keep saying the cupboard's a little bit bare. I mean, Leo DeVries looks like a future superstar, highly, highly regarded prospect,

and maybe he's moving a bit faster than other organizations would even be moving him. Is there anybody that's rising in that organization that maybe people outside of San Diego are not talking enough about because they do scout really well. They do well in depth in the international free agency and they end up finding guys all the time.

Yeah, I think it's a really relevant question, especially this time of year. And especially because, I mean, even for 29 other teams, because you never know who probably can trade. I don't think the breeze is going anywhere. Ethan Salas is hurt right now. So that might make it a little tough for them to move him can trade. I don't think the breeze is going anywhere. Ethan Salas is hurt right now, so that might make it a little tough for for them to move him if they do want to, you know, try to dangle

him for some major league help. Well, I look at Braden Nett, undrafted guy a couple years ago. Obviously the draft's been shortened, so maybe sort of like a 21st rounder, so to speak, but you know, he's a guy who didn't have maybe a ton of amateur experience or high level amateur experience and he's really made, you know, himself into a pretty good enticing pro prospect with a pretty decent arsenal. And looks like he's in AA right now doing decently. I think he could be either an intriguing trade ship or maybe a major league guy by the end of the year. or maybe a major league guy by the end of the year. Again, the Potters promote guys a lot faster than other organizations, so the definition of a major league guy is maybe a moving target with San Diego. But I think if you're looking at this guy's who brings up the system pretty quickly,

he would be near the top of the list. I wonder also if some very recent draft picks like Cashmé Field, you know, somebody that might be far away, but maybe still has that impermittor of being a high draft pick. I believe Cashmé Field was their first rounder last year. Yeah, so seems like somebody like that might be available as well, don't you think, because it's so far away? I think so. I did talk to someone, you know, early in the season, said, Hey, I saw him in spring. He looked terrible.

But I mean, that's maybe one look in spring. And I think he was dealing with the flu at the time. But I think his VLO has been a little less than maybe what was initially expected. But I mean, he's, I think 19 or 20 only, you know, was only drafted last year. So still got time to develop and maybe gain a little more shine in the prospect rankings.

But yeah, I think, you know, given the Pottery's timeline and what they need right now immediately at the big league level, a guy like that is probably a prime candidate to be moved. Just when we think we can count AJ Preller out, I think he will find a way. I think you had to guess for the deadline, buyer or seller, buyer somehow, right? That's the only way to explain it at this point. I was just saying right now it's a definite buyer. Like next few weeks could change things, but I mean even in 23,

when they were kind of right on the edge, they didn't really saw off anything. And the Potters have Michael King, Dylan Sleese going to free agency next year. So yeah, they probably have to go for it. Yeah, more problems to solve in the winter, but those can be solved later. We can solve the trade deadline first. Dennis, thank you so much for joining us today.

We appreciate your time and your insight. Yeah, thanks, guys. Appreciate you having me on. Well, let's take a look at the NL Playoff picture. Time for a June check-in, really sort of trying to connect buyers and sellers, thinking about the direction these teams are going to go and what these next six or seven weeks might bring for this group. And you look at the playoff odds. It's kind of funny to sort by odds instead of actual records because you see a team

like the Brewers going to get dinged a little bit. They're three games out of a wild card spot right now, but they only have a 24.7% chance of making the playoffs entering play on Tuesday. These are the fan graphs playoffs odd playoff odds. If you're wondering the source on these, there's probably only what three teams that you'd say, maybe even just two that you'd say are comfortably not going to make the playoffs. Rockies. Who are we kidding? Right. They're just what are they going to do? They're 12 and 53.

They're not going to find it and become a wild card team. You can add the Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals, I think. Nats are five below 500 right now at 30 and 35. But yeah, the division is an uphill battle. You already got one team underperforming in Atlanta that will likely be better. The Mets are good. The Phillies are good. So that seems like a fair assessment.

They're probably not gonna find their way in. I think that's something that is working against the Reds here, and to some extent, maybe the Brewers and Cardinals, is just that their division is, I don't wanna say surprisingly, but their division is competitive. And they're gonna have to play the people ahead of them a lot. And I could see them just sort of playing them

all to a standstill, right? If you're the Brewers, Reds or Cardinals, you have to beat up on the rest of the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals in order to get in there. I don't know how that'll play out. I mean, every division has that sort of story in it, but this division in particular is very wild card heavy, whereas some other divisions are kind of more top heavy. I don't know. I don't want to count the Reds out, so you can count the Reds in for this conversation. But if I was running the Reds, if I was acquiring something, I would want that thing to either be super cheap, and I've said thing and they're people and they're not things, but I would want the player that I acquired to be either

super cheap and just sort of patch a hole, maybe a reliever, other people people aren't thinking about, or more likely a player that can be with me for a couple years. I think of that Sam Mull trade with the A's. Their bullpen is still not very good. So they could add a bullpen piece or they could add a starter that's going to be with them for a while if that's possible. Something I think mostly on the pitching end, because even if their hitting hasn't been amazing, I think as a Reds ownership, I would just be depending on the young guys to kind of step forward. Cristiano Acarnacio on Strand, Noel V. Marte. Those are my quote unquote trade deadline acquisitions.

You're just getting healthy, basically. And a hundred greens getting a second opinion is that the groin and back injuries, if Green is going to miss extended time, I think that's another thing that would be a pretty big blow for them, like just keeping them from closing ground on those wild card teams. Do you buy the division leaders as they are today as the clear cut, like, yeah, these three teams

are all gonna win the division, like the Mets, they're 66.4% to win the division, 93.4% to make the playoffs. They're up four on the Phillies. Obviously, in June, that's not an insurmountable lead. Almost a pick-up, I mean, I think the Phillies can play better than this. Right, Phillies are still really good,

they're gonna remain in buy mode, probably add to that bullpen. If the Harper thing is only just like a sort of a minimum, then I think that they'll get back again. Cubs are up four on the cards right now, they're 71.3% to win the division. That one seems more insurmountable, like that one seems more like I think it's a really

you think you think that one's like they're do you think they're just a clear notch above the other teams chasing them? Well, you also have to think about like what the teams will do from now until then with their roster and I just have every belief that the Cubs are going to make a major acquisition, especially in the arms department. And I just don't see the Cardinals doing that. The last year of your GM on the way out is how much power does the other GM that's with the organization already, the guy who's gonna take over from you, is he gonna be like,

oh yeah, please mortgage some of my assets so you can have a good, you know, so you can play a wild card game on the way out. I don't know if they're that siloed necessarily, though. I think they'd be, I think if you're making moves for the future, Hyam Bloom's a big part of that conversation, right? I'm sure he's in the conversation. I'm just saying he would probably

be able to vote against anything dramatic. Now, could they get a smaller piece? Yeah, sure. But I think the Cubs are more likely to do some dramatic because everything seems to be coming together on the offensive side. And just adding a piece that could really help them, I think in the rotation most of all. The numbers that I have for this piece that I'm writing say that the Cubs right now are 23rd overall in starting pitching war projected the rest of the season and their top three is 24th. So that screams to me impact. They don't need a guy who gets them there.

They're going to get the, they're going to, I think, get the best pitching person on the market, the best starting pitcher on the market. I don't know that I believe in the Cardinals pitching staff the way it is. I think it's about to be, it's headed towards best starting pitcher on the market. I don't know that I believe in the Cardinals pitching staff the way it is. I think it's about to be, it's headed towards the hottest part of the year with a bunch of guys that don't strike guys out. Yeah, that's a long-term flaw that's still there. So I could see that team fading a little bit, being one of those teams that sinks closer to the we should actually sell and look a little more to the future window.

Anybody else you think is going to fall out of this mix in the West right now, the Dodgers 85.1% to win the division. They're only up one and a half games in the Giants and up to on the Padres, who they're in the middle of a series of right now, as we talked about earlier, 98.4% chance of making the playoffs like I get that's loaded in projection and the quality of the roster, especially if everyone eventually gets healthy, is maybe the best in the league by a margin, but it doesn't seem like they're... I don't feel as confident in them at the moment as I expected to on the 10th of June. Yeah, in your head, think of where you think the Dodgers rank in rest of season starting pitching war. They gotta be... I mean, again, taking of reasonable expectation for injured guys where you think the Dodgers rank in rest of season pitching, starting pitching war.

They got to be, I mean, again, taking of reasonable expectation for injured guys coming back mid pack at best 15th, 16th. How are they fourth? They are fourth in rest of season projected war. Because it puts a ton on what Glasnell, Snell and Otani, like all throwing a lot of innings. It gives 68 innings to Glasnow, gives 59 to Rokey, 54 to Gonsolin, 55 to Snell. It's just that all those guys are pretty good. And so that's the odds. That's why the projections are still good. It's like, well, maybe not all of them are coming back, but not all of them are not coming back. Yeah, so I guess that's the idea.

I think I'd bet against them being the fourth best rotation going forward, but yeah, I think that one might be competitive all the way down with the wire. I think it'll be more competitive than projections say, because I also don't think that the Dodgers right now want to spend a lot of prospect capital improving their rotation. They just spent a lot of money on the rotation.

They shouldn't have to at this point based on all the all the additions they've made, but health is what it is. Who do you see kind of in that middle group, though? I mean, the Giants, I think, have plenty of skeptics. Who do you see as being maybe the most susceptible to falling out of the race? Is it the Cardinals or is it another team that's kind of played above its skis so far that you think is going to sink back to Earth? I think the Cardinals will sink back to Earth.

I think the Braves are going to amount to a comeback, but I could see it actually ultimately falling short just because I don't know that Strider is going to be Strider this year. And there's enough questions about that roster. And the bullpen right now doesn't look good at all. You know, it's hard to circle a reason for the Braves other than You know the lineup is gonna be better going forward and and people are getting healthy to some extent But losing Smith Schaver was I think a big deal and Strider not being who he is is a big deal

So I think that the Cardinals will fall back the Brewers will move into ahead of the Cardinals going forward I think the Giants will fall back, the brewers will move into ahead of the cardinals going forward. I think the giants will fall back. And so basically I think it'll be the Padres and either the Mets or Phillies are the two wild cards and then the cardinals, brewers and giants are all fighting for that last one. If I had to pick between the cardinals, brewers and giants, I'm going to pick the brewers. It's not what the projections say. But I also think that they might have a rabbit they can pull out of the hat in terms of finding a third baseman. I don't know why I think that. I don't know if it's

the big power, all-power prospect they've got, Wilkin. I don't know if it's a trade or maybe even just finding somebody. I think of like an Abraham Toro with the Red Sox. Like, I think that might be an upgrade over the third base situation. Yeah, they've gone down that road once before, but. Yeah, I don't know if it's Toro in particular. I'm just saying I think the Brewers will be pretty active in smaller moves, and I think the smaller moves could make a big difference. I love the Mizrowski coming up. And I know that they maximize their rotation, their pitchers that they do have really well.

I like their bullpen a lot. I think there's a lot to like about the Brewers. And I don't think that they've actually played as well as they could. I think there's more in there. Yeah, it feels like they have not had their best overall stretch. I mean, they did play really well coming through that Philly series,

but their best month of the season seems like it still hasn't happened yet. And getting an upgrade at third base, among a few other things, would help a lot. They've got pitching and they've got prospects. I think that makes them viable as buyers if they feel they can make that push here at the trade deadline. OK, two weird trade ideas real quick. Eugenio Suarez to the Brewers. Okay, yeah, if Arizona falls out of it, that could make sense. Or if we're pitching and just stay in it and bring up Jordan Lawler.

I like that. I think there's just a bit of a mix there. I don't know exactly what the trade will look like. Suarez for Savali. Yeah, could work. Jaren Duran and Lucas Gialito. So watch him. For what? Watch him. Send your scouts to the Padres. I don't know what for. Okay, yeah. Let us know in the Discord what for and try not to get angry with Eno because I've

seen people mentioning that they think Jaren Duran is the heart of the Red Sox. So have fun. Ethan Salas and? I don't think so, bud. No? I don't think so. No? I don't think so. mentioning that they think they think Jaren Durand is the heart of the Red Sox. So have fun. Ethan Salas and I don't think so, but no, I don't think so. No, I don't think that's going to happen. We could try to try to find an idea that like they could package deal it out because deal it is not under contract really for next year. There's a mutual option, but mutual options are almost nothing. They're not really anything.

Now, trading Jaren Durand to the Padres is going to take some significant gymnastics. So I'm curious if we can pull it off in the Discord. Drop a note in the episode discussions channel if you think you can solve it. For Zanderback. Oh yeah, for Zanderback. Good one. That's that. That's rage bait.

On that note. I was just kidding, by the way. Nobody cut that one up. We are going to go on our way out the door. You can find Eno on BlueSky, you know, saris.biscoutatsocial, imdvr.biscoutatsocial. Thanks again to Dennis Lin for dropping by

and joining us on today's show. And thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for putting this episode together. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. It sounded like a gloot, made a loud smacking sound.