Rates & Barrels - Rounding Out Rosters & Depth Chart Diving

Episode Date: January 17, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss the Yankees' rotation depth with Frankie Montas expected to miss time at the start of the season, Trey Mancini's impact on the Cubs' depth chart, Brandon Belt's ripple effect in Toronto, and the addition of Miguel Rojas to an unsettled playing-time mix in Los Angeles. Plus, the A's addition of Shintaro Fujinami, Andrew McCutchen's reunion with the Pirates, and Jorge Alfaro's move to Boston.  Rundown 2:00 Frankie Montas' Shoulder Injury 10:27 Trey Mancini to the Cubs 18:11 Brandon Belt's Role in Toronto; Impact on Kirk & Jansen 27:02 Miguel Rojas & The Unsettled Dodgers Depth Chart 35:28 Jacob Amaya's Path in Miami 39:00 Shintaro Fujinami to the A's 46:50 Andrew McCutchen Returns to Pittsburgh 52:30 Jorge Alfaro to the Red Sox 58:44 Luke Weaver to the Reds; Future Reliever? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx.

What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Tuesday, January 17th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we dig into some late winter.

I want to say spring. Late winter. It's still winter. I look out my window, and it doesn't look like winter. The winters I'm used to, the winters I've had most of my life, look very different. It's not all white out there. It's not white there's plenty of plenty of rain unfortunately like too much but uh the sunshine you know it's nice the thing that killed me when i lived in new york was that they that march was like i considered march a spring month and spring and spring training had started and i always be. I'd always be writing about baseball or thinking about baseball

or drafting my leagues and stuff and be outside in New York being like, this ain't spring. There are so many times I can remember getting a dog kind of changed this. When we got Hazel, I remember walking around my neighborhood in late February, beginning part of March when spring training

games begin, listening to Brewers games while taking her for a walk. I'm walking around and there's snow banks next to the sidewalk, maybe even ice on the sidewalk depending on the year. You're listening to Bob Euchre and you know it's warm and sunny and great in Arizona.

It's infuriating. You're trying not to fall on the sidewalk from the ice and snow. It's like, this is weird. It's givinguriating. You're trying to fall on the sidewalk from the ice and snow. It's like, this is weird. It's giving me hope that this is about to end, that this weather is going to go away. It's worse than the moment somehow. But I'm not at the ballpark right now. This is a little bit jarring.

Cursing all the people who went to spring training. It's the later stage moves. Some of these we've discussed on other shows, the 3-0 show most specifically, but a lot of different things that could actually have significant fantasy impact in the year ahead.

So we begin today. Frankie Montas has a shoulder injury and it was John Heyman, I believe, who had the tweet suggesting that Montas will likely miss the first month of the season. They're calling it shoulder inflammation. Montas had a shoulder issue in 2022. So I think this adds a little bit of extra concern, just given that this isn't the first

brush with the shoulder problems. And he didn't pitch particularly well during his time with the Yankees either. So what should we make of Montas himself? And then as we look at this Yankees depth chart behind him, who do you think emerges to possibly pick up a starting role in the early part of the season with Montas likely on the shelf? I think this is becoming a problem when it comes to just the course of his career, the shape of his career.

He has not really had much bulk in his life. I mean, he's once had 187 innings in 2021, 144 last year. Before that, he didn't have 100 once. So he's not a guy who's made 30 starts once in his career, I guess 27, 32, you could say the last two years were decent, but I had to really pump him down in the rankings, and I don't know if I've done enough, right now I have him 74th, my rankings come out this week, I've got him 73rd or 74th, looking 73rd, right ahead of Kenta Maeda decent injury concerns, Montas projects way better

has good stuff plus and even good location plus but with a month off, that means you're babying him on your roster for a month and frankly, I don't know if I should push him behind the next group of pitchers which is all my favorite young pitchers would you rather have you know a month where Michael Kopech is on your roster and you're deciding what to if he's good or not and you're reaping that upside and you're getting more information or a month with Frankie Montas on your on

your roster just hoping reading every little snippet of how he feels and when he's going to throw and when he's going to get on the mound and blah, blah, blah. So, I don't know. I think maybe he belongs later even. Maybe he belongs down with Corey Kluber and Sonny Gray in the 90s. Yeah, I like Gray the most of that bunch. And me, I like Gray a little more than most. the most of that bunch, and me, I like Gray a little more than most, but I think because

of how much he struggled after the trade, Montas is not a pitcher I would wait for in a league without IL spots, right? We think about this in terms of the NFBC formats where you've got either 12 to 15 teams, you've got a 7-man bench, no IL. You usually

can have one player who's not doing anything stashed away. If you have more than that, you usually can have one player who's not doing anything stashed away. If you have more than that, you start to run into some trouble. You start to end up with either bad pitchers in your lineup, or you're turning the roster more than you want to, or you're not getting enough playing time from your hitters, shuffling hitters in and out on Mondays and Fridays because your bench is smaller than it should be with that injured player you're carrying.

So I think of that spot as extremely valuable if I'm going to stash someone, be that an injured player or a prospect. They have to be a high probability to pay off. And probably not even worth it, man. Honestly, just think of how often things go foobar on your fantasy teams. Where you're just like, what?

And that guy got hurt, and that guy got hurt, and that guy got hurt. To have a place where you're like, no, I'm holding this guy. He's already hurt. You're going to draft someone who's already hurt? Right. And I think this is different than someone coming back

from an injury, too. There's going to be the, what about this guy that had surgery? Well, he had surgery in November, and he recovered from it in December and was working out by January. He was actually getting ELO readings. Yeah, and he was throwing on day one of camp like everybody else.

That's different to me than someone who's actively hurt and will be behind schedule. So that's part of where I draw the line, too. I think this is good news for Domingo German, probably. That's what Fangress has as the sixth guy. It's good news for Domingo German. I like Clark Schmidt and I like his arsenal a little better as a starting pitcher. It's wider. It's really interesting. I think he has more upside as a starting pitcher.

I think German could be upside as a starting pitcher and I think Hermann could be a really good reliever because I think he'd push that velo up to 94 95 96 even and then he has like a mid 80s curveball as a reliever I think that would really work and some of his command issues would become a little bit less lesser so you So when I look at his pitches, it's really in that area where people are... I was just reading a great piece by Rustin Dodd, and I know he collaborated with somebody. Was it Steven Nesbitt?

But the one about the baseball prospectus the creating baseball prospectus and Gary Huckabee and the alt usenet board that they used to play did you read that one? It was good. I did not I saw it go up I didn't read it yet but there was one little note in there where they hire James Click

and you know to be an intern at baseball perspective early on Baseball Perspectives and there's this one little note that says they disagreed James Click thought you could be a starting pitcher with two pitches and Gary Huckabee

thought you needed three and it was just like a throwaway line just a part of trying to give you an idea of like the kind of discussions they were having and when i look at domingo herman i think i think he's kind of in like possibly in that group just because i know he he does throw four pitches by stack cast um but uh and the change up is is okay it's about league average um but i think he would be so much more effective if he did not throw the sinker ever and he was just a forcing curveball guy.

And so I wonder if he does that even as a starting pitcher, if that's relevant to his, is he a starting pitcher or is he not? But for now, he's a starting pitcher. He's the next guy in line. He's going to be the guy who's going to get the ball. Because I think Clark Schmidt can still kind of be an up-and-down guy for another year. because I think Clark Schmidt can still kind of be an up-and-down guy for another year. Yeah, I mean, the way they use Schmidt at the big league level,

26 relief appearances, three starts in 2022, all eight of his appearances at AAA last year were starts. That kind of makes you think they're going to make him the next guy up if they need another person. They've used Hermann more in that kind of fill-in role in the past. I kind of get it. I actually am more excited about Schmidt, though. If Schmidt gets the chance.

If Van Graaff is right, Schmidt has another option. That's relevant to this discussion. We've talked about this before, too. Schmidt is older than you'd think. Schmidt is already 26, turns 27 in February. But young pitchers don't exist anymore. Young starting pitchers, it's really, really rare. Everyone takes a while to figure out the injury portion

of it, to figure out the whole arsenal bit of it. The young pitcher, the sort of 22-year-old starting pitcher in the big leagues just didn't really exist. No. Increasingly rare. So yeah, it sounds like you're throwing the dart at Hermann. I'm actually probably

just avoiding the Yankees depth starters in most situations. Really? Yeah, I think I throwing the dart at Herman. I'm actually probably just avoiding the Yankees depth starters in most situations. Really? Yeah, I think I'm out on Herman. I'm just... The park and... Yeah, the K rate's a little low. I mean, it's just... I don't know. I just think there are enough guys, there are enough talented guys in that organization that project

better than him. It doesn't take as much for him to lose his job as you'd think, even though the who takes his job isn't as clear as it is in other instances. So, I don't know. Well, Stuff Plus loves Clark Schmidt and does not love Domingo Armand. 98 Stuff Plus. Clark Schmidt

109.7 Stuff Plus. A little bit of that's relief. Helps him. But I have Armand 118th and Clark Schmidt 120th. 120th yeah see they're already pretty well i guess i'm agreeing with you why would i spend on herman if i have schmidt that close right yeah let's go to another signing trey mancini lands with the cubs i think we both kind of said eric hosmer going to the cubs doesn't impact matt Mervis all that much. Trey Mancini going there, I think, is a clear, like, this guy is going to play.

But this is kind of the thing that I hinted at when we talked about Hosmer, was that if there's a dip on Mervis, I'm in. Because when he's trendy and moving up the board, it becomes a little harder to justify what it costs on draft day. If this scares people away from Mervis, I think it's the perfect time to start drafting Matt Mervis because Eric Hosmer is a

min-salary player for the Cubs. They have no obligation to play him the way that the Padres did during his time in San Diego. He has combined over the last five years been basically worth zero wins. If Mervis mashes this spring why wouldn't you just play Mancini and Mervis as your first base DH combo yeah there's

also a larger point of of how prospects are valued and you know where corbin carroll is going versus matt mervis right it's like uh we treat corbin carroll as if there's no risk and i don't know if that's completely true but you know you can you can put a different name in for for carroll if you like but we treat these sort of top end top end guys as if there's no risk the bobby wits in their first year and we draft them you know at very very high and then we leave these other guys who have clear opportunity you know we kind of leave them for the later later rounds and I'm much more interested in a guy like Mervis who I can see has the opportunity because the price is so much lower like especially now I feel like I could take mervis in a draft and hold as my third

first baseman and uh that i feel like he'd be superior than to most prospects in a draft and hold format because you could hold a prospect all year in a draft and hold format and he wouldn't give you any plate appearances but matt mervis will give you plate appearances this year yeah i mean that's how i see it you look at how mervis got the AAA last year kind of split. Well, he had three levels last year, but almost equal amounts of time at AA and AAA after a great start at high A. The K rate went down as he advanced. I don't know if we can look at a 14.6% K rate in 57 games at AAA and say he's better at making contact than he was at every other stop. I don't think that's necessarily the sign that a skill has been unlocked, but it's an encouraging step in the right direction. They could send him down if they wanted to for a few weeks and just

see how real was what you were doing at the end of last season, but the Cubs are in that spot right now. They've done enough to this roster to be competitive where the best guys are going to play. If Mervis is clearly better than eric hosmer he will play like i don't have any doubt about that i'm surprised looking at the projections that eric hosmer is still projected to be a league average bat the bat x has hosmer at 261, 380. WRC plus of an even 100.

One thing I'd like to point out, though, is that league average with the bat at first base is not league average. Right, you want more than that. The league last year at first base was 7% better than league average. So he's below average, even though he's projected to be average.

And Mervis' projection is a little under that. Average is lower, 235, 295, 393. So you're giving up OBP by projection. But projections for young players, as we know, can be pretty volatile. I think I would take the over on all that. Steamer once says he's trying to be 20% better than the average. Right. So if you're looking at that information

you're saying, what's the most likely outcome in terms of playing time between Hosmer and Mervis? I think it's still Mervis. Even though Mancini takes one of the two spots that Mervis is capable of playing.

I think the Bad x is very reasonable with young players um so I don't want to say that it's completely the floor but uh it is sort of valuable to have the bad x and the steamer next to each other to kind of describe floor and ceiling a little bit I mean the bad x 235 295 393 for Mervis the steamer, 295, 393 for Mervis. The Steamer, 258, 319, 473 for Mervis. 473 slugging. That's the kind of thing that if you projected out for full season would get close to 30 homers.

And with a decent batting average, so you're talking a really, really good late round pick. But you have to pay for the bad X, right? You have to buy him when the bad X says you should buy him and hope you get the steamer. That's how I sort of see young players. That means I'm probably not going to get Corbin Carroll, but I might get Matt Mervis.

I could live with that if that's how it all plays out because the players that go around Carroll have longer track records. The players that go around Matt Mervis don't, and they have just as many questions about playing time and skills in many cases. Mancini himself, what kind of season are you expecting from him making the move into Wrigley as his home park? Really consistent barrel rates throughout his career, really consistent O-swing percentages, just kind of a solid player across the board that I think gives them some depth in this lineup, some much-needed depth.

Yeah, he had a real hard time in Houston, and I wonder if it's just because you think about his backstory here's a guy uh that was drafted by the orioles you know in the eighth round and then sort of rocketed up and became um i don't know if it's he's a star necessarily but became a an above average regular with the with the orioles then had the cancer and came back with them. Good story all around. Houston was the first time he was really pushed out of his comfort zone as a player where he's traded to a new team trying to make a good impression

at a really important time. I would just look away from those Houston numbers and instead look at the Baltimore numbers where he was 16% better than the average, hit.268, hit 10 homers, would have hit about 18, I think, if he'd stayed in Baltimore as I got warmer. But just a better batting average.

So I think he's in line for a better batting average than he put up last year. I think he can hit as high as.260 as long as he's comfortable with the cubs and you know it's a two-year deal right uh and he's gonna have all spring to get to know them and uh you know 260 with 18 homers uh it's uh it's okay you know it's a it's for the cubs it's okay. For the Cubs, it's above average DH, I think. And for fancy players, it's a good late pick at a position that is not super easy late.

I think he'll play, and that's really important. A viable corner option, if you spent up on everything else. I think that's the way I would describe Trey Mancini at this point. Probably won't hurt you, could actually help you a bit, and end up being a top 150 player that goes pretty consistently outside the top 200. Treat yourself to Tim's new Fudge Brownie Lattes.

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Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST line all-wheel drive with tech pack at 3.49 apr for 72 months with down payment that's just 267 bi-weekly cash value of 40 294 plus eligible ford owners get a thousand dollar bonus for details visit your local ford store or ford.ca interesting to sort of compare him to brandon. I think Brandon Belt, because of his knees, brings a much greater health question to the equation. And I wonder, for Brandon Belt, getting out of Oracle Park, going to Toronto, what do you see for the role? Do you see kind of a Jock Peterson playing time cap on Belt, just as a guy that's probably more big-side platoon masher?

just as a guy that's probably more big-side platoon masher. I mean, it could be really good on a per-plate appearance basis, but it could be maybe a little frustrating to manage in weekly formats depending on how the pieces fit around him on this depth chart. Yeah, for his career, Belt has been above average against lefties, but if you kind of look at the aging curve on that, he's only been above average versus lefties once in the last six seasons and I don't normally look at season to season splits like this but I just wanted to check because the way I would use Brandon Belt and we said this on the 3-0 show is I would use him

strictly against righties I probably sub him out of games when a lefty comes on and I think for two reasons a he's only been above average once in the last six seasons against lefties. And B, it can count as load management and just keep him off his knees. I know he said in the press conference that his knees feel great and he's ready to go. But around San

Francisco, there's always been the feeling that the next knee injury is the last one. And so I think just being conscientious with his playing time is going to be important. It's not a team that needs him to play every day. They'd rather have that lefty come off the bench and hit for power. So I think the projections have it about right.

360 to 420 play appearances. Going to be a tough one in in weekly leagues i think he's going to be a guy in nfbc that gets streamed a lot when people see oh this weekend he's it's all righties they're at home they're in they're in yankee stadium whatever it is um there'll be a guy who gets picked up and dropped a lot so not someone i necessarily want to run out and draft in a draft and hold uh that actually you're trying to bake in a lot of the someone i necessarily want to run out and draft in a draft and hold uh that actually you're trying to bake in a lot of the streaming that you would do with hitters so decent like i think an okay would you say a second first baseman no probably a third first baseman maybe the same

tier as mancini in draft and hole but i do think format is really important here i think in a league where you've got 50 players... You only want one daily, probably. In a 12-team league, I think he will be one of the most added and dropped players in the pool because there will be plenty of weeks where people will want him, but there's going to be plenty of weeks where you can't afford to keep him. So yeah, he'll be on four or five different rosters in a 12-team league this year. So just know that going in.

Not necessarily a player you have to draft, but a player that might help you in some of those more shallow leagues. And a daily moves league just depends on how deep your bench is. To hold a player like this in a daily moves league, a lot of those leagues only have five guys on the bench. He's probably not good

enough to do that either. He'd be on the roster, off the roster, like a spot that you're actually turning rather than stashing. Slightly more valuable in like OBP leagues. He's probably going to be a strong OBP. I know he's only projected for sort of 320, 330, but he had 370, 430 the year before. So like, you know, this is an OBP guy.

So I thought this would have a negative effect on the playing time of Alejandro Kirk and or Danny Jansen, because if you're allocating big side platoon plate appearances to Brandon Belt at DH, one of the catchers has to sit. Which one do you think loses the most playing time? I was really surprised by how good Danny Jansen's numbers last year. 140 WRC+, 256 ISO.

I was really surprised by all this. And I kind of... I don't really have... This is kind of a gut feel thing. But I guess one way I can attack it with numbers is he had okay barrel rates before. 8%. 8.5%.

Last year he had a 13% barrel rate. People are going to see that and say, oh, he deserved the power that he had. He's growing into his power. He's 27. This is his real power level. I'm going to say what you normally need to do is regress those barrel rates.

So I think he's likely to put up like a 9% barrel rate next year. If he does that, I don't see him having a 256 ISO. I see him having like sort of a 180 ISO, something like he did in 2020. If he has a 180 ISO and the strikeout rates go back up again, he's going to be a good but not great offensive catcher. And then he's going to be in the same place as Alejandro Kirk. So I don't know why Alejandro Kirk's

place as Alejandro Kirk. So I don't know why Alejandro Kirk's slated for fewer plate appearances than Danny Jansen. There are still DH versus left-handers, so maybe Danny Jansen will DH against left-handers, but Kirk is a righty too,

right? Yeah, both catchers are righties, so one's automatically in when a lefty starts anyway. So they'll both play against lefties, so one's automatically in when a lefty starts anyway. They'll both play against lefties, but one has to sit when they face righties when Belt's healthy. I think I'd rather, at least offensively, I think

next year I'd rather have Kirk in there. Yeah, I think the way they use Kirk in the heart of the order, too, gives you a pretty good indicator. They trust him. They like his bat. They really value what he brings. Where do they play Jansen? Jansen hits a little lower, but I think Kirk,

I've seen Kirk hit cleanup on that team. Yeah. Yeah, and Kirk is going the other direction where he had 11% barrel rate in 21 and a 7% barrel rate last year. He still makes elite, elite contact, way better than Jansen. And if he regresses in the other direction

and has a 9% barrel rate he's going to be a better hitter because he he's going to walk more and he's going to strike out less so uh you know defensively I defer to people who watch uh you know sort of day-to-day um I don't I know that Kirk did not have a great um reputation defensively coming up. I don't necessarily see it in the numbers, but he was a great framer last year and better than Jansen. So I kind of think Kirk should get more playing time than Jansen. That's the argument I'm making. Maybe I'm wrong. But I'll have Kirk ahead of Jansen in my rankings pretty comfortably. Yeah, I'm going to have Kirk ahead too. I think this hurts Jansen more. I think they are likely to see Jansen the way you described him as someone that almost certainly is going to give back some barrel

rate, even though he's made a lot of strides with his plate skills. An excellent number two catcher to have. The way this roster fits together is very good for the Blue Jays. It's just a little frustrating for fantasy managers who were expecting Danny Jansen to be maybe a really good catcher two or even a low-end catcher one. Yeah, or Kirk. I mean, whichever one you were betting on, they both sort of fall out of that tier. I looking in my my most recent uh my first draft and hold that i was doing i was looking at a collection of catchers that i thought if i get one of these guys i'll be all right and i'm saying behind real muto and varsho there's kind of the rutschman kirk sean murphy wilson contreras uh you know grouping and i thought that they were clear a little bit clear of the young guys william Kirk, Sean Murphy, Wilson Contreras, you know, grouping.

And I thought that they were clear, a little bit clear, of the young guys, William Contreras and Cal Raleigh, and MJ Melendez, and Tyler Stevenson coming off of an injury. So I wanted to shop in that group, and, you know, this pushed Kirk out of that group a little bit. So that group gets a little bit smaller. Now you're talking about Murphy, Contreras, and Rutschman as a little mini-tier there, I think. And that's why I ended up with Murphy in the eighth round

because it's a two-catcher league, and I didn't want my number one catcher to be a totally untested young guy or an old guy coming off an injury. He's not old, Tyler Stevenson, but you know what I mean. A veteran coming off an injury. I still see Murphy and Kirk as top 10

catchers even though they have some playing time questions because of the quality of depth behind them. In Murphy's case, it's Travis Darnot. Kirk's case is Danny Jansen. I think I have Murphy ahead of Kirk now because the DH spot is more spoken for in Toronto. More of those plate appearances are clearly claimed, whereas in Atlanta, I think it's a little more up for grabs where you could see the two catchers working in tandem a little bit more often, but that could change based on a number of things we'll probably talk about at some point in the near future. Let's go to a trade that went down. I didn't really see this one coming at all. The Dodgers added Miguel Rojas to their infield mix. I think it was Jacob

Amaya that went the other way to the Marlins in this trade. What do you make of the depth chart the Dodgers currently have around the infield do you think this is just another versatile player that allows them to move other guys around too like how does this work for the Dodgers I've seen some people selling and you know cutting Gavin Lux in auto new leagues and selling Gavin Lux and declaring Miguel Rojas the starting shortstop, I don't know if I go that far. My read on this is Miguel Rojas could have just come in to be a utility guy as much as anything else. Lux is projected to be better with the bat.

I guess Rojas protects them defensively, so they'll have a good defensive shortstop on this team no matter what. But the backup shortstop, if Rojas is the starting shortstop, the backup shortstop is Gavin Lux. He's the guy with the bat. So if they need offense late in the game, they're going to bring Gavin Lux in, even if he hasn't started that game. And at second base, Gavin Lux is the is is the starter if rojas is the

starter at short because they need help in the outfield and chris taylor is probably going to play more outfield than infield yep so yes max muncy does mess things up but i think max muncy doesn't profile as a defensive second baseman in the post-shift rules changes. I think Max Muncy should not play much second base this year defensively. So, I think Lux his playing type is fairly safe.

As safe as any Dodgers can be. I mean, they definitely muck around with the depth chart. But I think Lux is safe, and I think Rojas is not very interesting for fantasy. I think even in deep leagues, I think there's some playing time risk that I just outlined. And if there's playing time risk,

why are you going to go heavy in on a guy who's projected to be a 256 homer, 7 steal guy? Fair question. And not even heavy in. Why would you even... There's probably other $2 or $3 players you could get on the middle infield that might play more.

I think the first part of what you said, Rojas is a backup. I think that's clear. I'm not worried about him... You think that's clear? I think he's a backup. I think he's a super utility backup. He's a great glue guy.

That's interesting. I think people read this as he was their starting shortstop. I don't see it. They don't need offense from every spot. We talk about this with great teams all the time. They can afford a guy that is league average

at best, and that's really stretching it in his best seasons. I'm not going to count the 2020-40 games where he was really good, because it's 40 games. But center field is an issue for them too. You can't have two holes up the middle. You can't. You can't have two on the depth chart where if one guy that can play both spots gets hurt, you have nobody.

You can't have that. That doesn't work. I think they've solved that in a very simple way. They didn't get a long-term replacement. This gives them a lot of positional flexibility. What I'm struggling with was the addition of JD Martinez

because I think with Max Muncy especially and some of his defensive limitations, you pretty much have to play Muncy at third. If you're going to play Rojas, Muncy has to play third unless you're going to play JD Martinez in Muncy has to play third unless you're going to play JD Martinez in the outfield because assuming you're playing Lux at second, right? So this is just a weird depth chart right now. I think Miguel Vargas is one of those guys. If he's hitting,

he's going to play. If Vargas is hitting, is he playing third? And then you're pushing, where are you putting Muncy then? If Vargas hits, does Muncy have to play second and then Lux plays short and Rojas goes to the bench? Do you try Lux in center? They've dabbled with that. Do you put Taylor out there? And play one of these guys in left? Yeah, play Lux.

Vargas in left? Yeah, I mean, I think. Or do you play JD out out there muncie never got surgery on the elbow like not tommy john surgery right he just sort of rest and rehabbed it and then the plane yeah he never he never actually had it because they were they were afraid he would need tommy john John. Which means to me that it's partially torn, right? Which he could still need Tommy John. Look at the season he just had.

And now you're going to put Muncy at third where he has to air it out. Right. This is an interesting depth chart. I don't... They always make an emphasis on having redundancy, right? And this feels like one of the least redundant outfields,

or one of the least redundant depth charts they've had in a while. Fair. With awkward fits all over the place. How do you look at this and profit? How do you look at this depth chart and make a bet? I would say, given the way they acted, they think of this year as maybe a little bit of reset. And so I would bet on the young players on this team. Why bet on Trace Thompson if he's already 31 years old? Yeah, he's projected for a

36% K rate. So as nice of a story as that was last year, I'm not betting on Trace Thompson for 2023. Chris Taylor showed up as a guy who swings at strikes and doesn't swing at balls and has some carrying play discipline type stuff, but he's obviously on the decline as well.

Even though he'll play, I don't know that... If I'm going to make a bet on anybody on this roster at their ADP there's a little bit, this might be surprising to some because I've spoken the trash about Gavin Lux in the past

but Gavin Lux and Miguel Vargas are in some ways, Miguel, Mookie Betts like sort of perennially being an early second round pick is it doesn't make any sense to me um so i'd like mookie but but gavin lux and miguel vargas might be people to bet on this year just because this looks like a bit of a reset year and what do they want to do coming out of a reset year have a brand new starting player that's young and cheap right i think they would love to come out of this year even if they don't you know they don't do as well as they've wanted to wins and losses

or in the division or whatever it is i think they would love to be like aha but we do now have a young core of will smith miguel vargas and gavin lux which is dodgers 2.0. And we're going to build around those guys. Well, yeah, and everyone's already saying Shohei Otani is a Dodger in 2024. So, you know, you've got that coming. But this is still a really good team, even if it's not quite as good as it was last year. I think Vargas, by projection, really pops too for a young player. 17% better than league average by the bat X, low K rate. Which is amazing because it's usually the one that's really not into the young guys.

Yeah. Vargas already projects more favorably than Taylor and Lux. And I think Taylor and Lux have to play a lot. So when you start to look at that, you're like, well, Vargas is going to play a lot, too. He's going to be one of the winners. I think you're right about Lux. I think there were enough small steps forward where they're still going to see what they have in him. This is kind of the last of the prove-it years for him, at least in Los Angeles, to be an everyday guy. If it doesn't happen this year, that's probably it for him as a guy that we expect to be a regular on this team at least. And maybe he's included in the midseason trade if it's not working out. I think Muncy is the true wild card from a health perspective if we get typical max muncie that changes a lot about how we view the pieces on this depth jar and how we view this group as a whole it does make it bad for lux and vargas if he's good somewhat yeah just because of some of the

defensive limitations of how the pieces are coming together right now. As far as the player going back to Miami, Jacob Amaya, any interest in him from a keeper dynasty perspective? It's just interesting. I think you think about how excited people get about certain players and just the hype, the up and down life of a prospect and the hype associated with that. I remember Jacob Amaya being a well sought after player at one point this last season. He was in the midst of a stretch of AA where he was 20% better than the average, had a good strikeout rate and a 236 iso and you're like oh this is young man growing into his power this is a guy who's always made contact and had a good plate approach what if he adds power this could be real breakout and you know i think that amaya had an amazing amount

of prospect cash in dynasty leagues and like you know you could have traded him for there are probably people listening to this that traded Jacob Amaya for something really nice last year. And then it all sort of went away in 351 plate appearances in AAA after he got promoted. The strikeout rate went up. The ISO disappeared.

He was 6% worse than league average. And now you're starting to look, oh, he's 24 and he really only has one stop where he had power. This reminds me a lot of them picking up Jordan Grotians from the Blue Jays where they're saying it doesn't look good now.

It's only looked good once. But what if it looks good like that again? Then we win. And they didn't give up much to get Grotians or Jacob Amaya. Maybe one of these guys turns it around. I don't have that much hope for it, but at least they make contact.

They have good plate approaches. If they add any more power, you remember those names, Grotians and Amaya. One of those guys might turn out to be something. Yeah, he's probably going to bounce around a little bit, play multiple spots. I think it's interesting. I'm looking at the Eric Langenhagen write-up, and Amaya was the best defensive infielder on the Dodgers 40-man when he wrote up their last prospect report.

I'm a little surprised that the Dodgers just didn't put Amaya in that spot. Well, yeah. They had their reasons, so we shall see how that plays out. I think Amaya is mostly a draft and hold and NL only player for me as we look at 2023. Dynasty.

Yeah, Dynasty. Deep Dynasty. Yeah, like 20-team Dynasty. Yeah. Yeah, otherwise... But I am a little surprised because he projects to be, you know, 10% to 15% worse than league average with the bat, Jacob Amaya does,

and Miguel Rojas, whose projections are maybe more reliable, maybe that's the whole thing of it, is projected to be 7% to 10% worse than league average. So do they really get a lot out of that? A couple points of slugging. Confidence in the glove and also just that the guy can hold his own

against big league pitching, whereas Amaya, if he's struggling, you're taking not just a slightly below average performance, you're taking a way below average, an unacceptable level. If you don't even want to play out there. Yeah.

Right. Like think Christian Pache where you're like, Oh, the defense is great. So it'll work out. And you're like, Oh, this is so bad offensively.

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Speaking of the A's, the A's added another free agent. Shintaro Fujinami is headed to Oakland, and they've actually made a pretty high volume of moves. None of them prior to this one were overwhelmingly exciting because the Sean Murphy trade netted them a player that you and I are very unsure of, and Estre Ruiz being the main big league piece, but they did Kyle Muller in that trade. Muller could be in this rotation.

They've got competition. They've got Freddie Tarnock in that trade, too. They've got a deep group of pitchers, and it's kind of hard to figure out who they're going to go to first. Fujinami, I would assume, enters with a rotation spot to call his own, but what did you see in your opportunities to dig in a little bit on Fujinami? He averaged four and a third innings per appearance last year.

I'm looking at baseball reference, and I don't see games versus games started right now. But I do know that he's been sort of between a reliever and a starter in his recent history he is a guy who came up and was throwing over 100 miles an hour in japan he was a rookie 19 year old rookie out of high school uh that had a 275 era in his first year with tons of strikeouts and he had an interesting career where for a while he was a stud uh throwing really really hard has a really great splitter pretty good breaking ball no command and the no command bit started to bite him in the butt and in 2021 he had a six walks per nine in the limited major league uh appearances but he had 4.6 walks per nine in 2020, 5.7 walks per nine

in 2017. I saw a video that was pointing to some early 160, 170 pitch outings that may have led to some of the injury concerns, but also the wildness suggests that maybe he didn't have very repeatable mechanics. Anyway, Shintaro Fujinami ended up wild and injured for a good part of the middle of his career. Last year was the first year where he kind of, he got past 100 innings again. The walk rate was manageable. He was still throwing 96s out there,

had a 277 ERA. So what the A's are doing is betting on it's almost like the rich hill thing where they've seen a small sample of of good uh from somebody that's been out of the game for a while or has been up and down and just bet on it and the rich hill uh bet worked uh this one could work, but people I talk to around the national, what is it, the NPB is the Nippon Professional Baseball, the Japanese League, sort of think that he would be better cast as a reliever at this point. And he would be really exciting as a reliever because he'd be a 98, 99 mile an hour guy with a killer splitter.

And he could end up being the closer for the A's. with a killer splitter, and he could end up being the closer for the A's. Because of that, I do like Trevor May, but because he could be a closer or one of their starters, and I don't think he's going to come over with options, I do like him as a pick. I just, I'm not sure it's going to work out as a starter. So I'd be a little worried that the helium caused by his uh his locale where he's pitching and the seeming opportunity in the rotation is going to outstrip

how likely i think he is to be a great starter in the big leagues this year all right so you're in a draft and hold right now i I'm going to guess after round 30 sometime in that range is when you'd start to think about him if he's still out there just based on the way you're describing him and it sounds like it's more of a late dart where you're hoping to get some saves as opposed to a late dart where you're expecting to

end up with someone that you've viably thrown in as a starter. Yeah, I have him sort of comfortably behind the arms that i'm really the young arms i'm really excited about like luis ortiz uh ken waldachuk hayden wesnenski those guys are in the 80s right now i have shintaro fujinami 92nd which is still actually a little bit higher than than uh where you're putting him um but uh he may he, he may, he may drop a little bit. I'm working on the ranks today. Um, and, uh, he could be somewhere in the low one hundreds. Um, Tyler McGill is a guy who

has great stuff, but no opportunity. He's at one Oh one right now. Um, so yeah, somewhere in the late nineties, early one hundreds. Um, so maybe a little bit earlier than what you're saying, but the 100th pitcher, when does the 100th pitcher go by ADP? When would that be? That's the 100th starting pitcher, so that's a little bit more annoying. So let's assume that at least 30 relievers probably go so you got to go

down to like pitcher 130 yeah pitcher 130 by adp pick 400 put them around there and uh pick 400 is 29th round okay 20 28th round so yeah yeah okay yeah we're talking the same language just wanted to be just wanted to get it right yeah late 20s I'm into it the one thing I like about it though as much as I'm a little bit

pessimistic one thing I like about it is there's two ways you could be right yep you could be the closer or you could be a starter right the more ways you can be right yep you could be the closer or you could be a starter right it's the more ways you can be right is good i find that taking the chance on on that is usually it's gonna happen on a team that's not good because the if you're not good enough to start on a team that has playoff aspirations you're not necessarily front of the line in the bullpen because they probably have decent bullpen already with the a's there are so many questions like no he could be he could be our third best starter

he could be our number one reliever which you know yeah i do like i do like may um you know the he had this thing where um you know he he developed this um he developed this split finger um and then he developed some injury based on throwing the split finger. Not necessarily that the split finger caused it, but he was having to sort of alter his mechanics to make the split finger work. But he assured me that in the offseason,

he would find a way to be able to throw the split finger and the slider and the foreseam well. If he does that, he's got three above-average pitches with stuff. He's not that bad command-wise. And so I think he's definitely in the first seat for the closer position there. I didn't really like any of their other relievers, so it's pretty easy for me to put Trevor May in the first seat for the closer position there i don't i didn't really like any of their other relievers so it's pretty easy for me to put trevor may in the first seat which is nice because some of the lower end reliever darts are you know not good trevor man there's more crowded situations for a lot of them this one at least i feel like trevor may or maybe shintaro fujinami but i also

think that they you know with the deal they signed him to and the way it works, what they need, I think a standout starter. They did collect a lot of arms, but a lot of those guys have options, and a standout starter would be more valuable to them. So I do think they'll start the season with or start at least the spring training with him

trying to make him a starter. Yeah, max out the value. Attempt that first, then adjust later as needed. Andrew McCutcheon is back in Pittsburgh. Kind of nice to see that when a longtime player for a franchise, a modern face of the franchise for sure, gets to probably finish his career back where it started. This is a little strange only because I really want to see what

Miguel Nduhar can do with regular playing time. I know he's just been buried for the last few years with the Yankees after that pretty intriguing debut, geez, 2018, five years ago now. It's been a little while. And because of G-Man Choi and Carlos Santana and one of those guys likely having a DH, it's already a little crowded because Andujar is not a great defender. So if you assume Andrew McCutcheon is going to play left field, this is pretty bad news for him. But McCutcheon, if he's going to be an everyday player in this lineup, might actually be sneaky useful in deep leagues again. I thought he was somewhat productive working mostly as a DH for the Brewers last year.

Yeah, he's still retained his plate discipline his ability to make contact the power is down a little bit um but uh you know if he does play often i think you could hit 230 with you know 12 to 15 homers pretty easily um um yeah andu har carlos santana g-man choy but carlos santana g-man choy Yeah, Andujar, Carlos Santana, G-Man Choi. But Carlos Santana, G-Man Choi can also play first. It's getting a little crowded here. I don't know that Andujar is going to get a full shot. I don't think he is.

I think if you were like me and you were hoping for that, that's the little bit of downside with this McCutcheon reunion. But I think he could be... McCutcheon, at least in a 15-team league, might be good enough to have on your roster consistently as your last outfielder or as your in-and-out outfielder that you mix and match for a spot because the counting stat should be there.

I don't think they're going to give him more than a day off per week. I think he's actually kind of part of their regular plan for how the season's going to begin. Yeah. Yeah, I think that they want to show some progress and bank some wins and start getting, start this thing going in the right direction. To defend them, I think Cabrian Hayes, O'Neal Cruz,

and Rodolfo Castro are three players I'm excited about. If they can convince Brian Reynolds to stay, they've got Henry Davis coming at catcher. That starts to be a team that looks pretty solid up the middle. And these kind of little moves that they're making at first base and DH and the corner outfield start to become more important if you really believe what they're doing up the middle. I think Rodolforo could stop switch hitting uh i think that might be an interesting idea for him in the cedric mullins cast he's been pretty bad uh i think it's from the right side let me i get this right but career splits from the left side 71 wrc plus from uh from the left side and a 143 wrc plus from the right side yeah just take everything from the right side face same

handed pitching from the right side and see what happens. Numbers-wise, what you'd expect is, you know, like a 10% split or whatever split you'd expect. You know, what you're trying to do by being a switch hitter is always have the platoon advantage. But if he's so much better, if you think he's a true talent 130 WRC player, WRC plus player from the right side, then you can take the platoon advantage away

against righties and still be better than that, than 71 WRC plus. So that's the question. And it's not like, oh, he just had really poor luck. Like he had a 31% strikeout rate versus righties as a lefty. He has a 19% strikeout rate versus lefties as a righty. So there's real fundamental differences under the hood there where you're just like, hmm, maybe it's not going to work out. Maybe you should talk to Cedric Mullins. But in any case, I do like him in terms of the way I, I think he's got a lot of batted ball oomph, got some power. I think he could strike out a little bit less in the future

uh i like his body like in terms of he's like a short compact fire plug kind of player uh i like when it what i see when i watch him play like he's energetic and i know the phone fell out of his pocket so sometimes maybe uh maybe the concentration isn't 100 there uh but he's also young and so if that concentration comes together with the athleticism he shows in his body i think there is another layer for him and if he if he does take a step forward and cruz takes that step forward now you've got an infield you know so there's something going on here kutch could also uh be an interesting elder statesman for some of those players i don't know if uh it needs to be just black players but you know uh there are enough black american players that may that may sort of blossom under his tutelage

cal mitchell is there cabrian hayes you know there's some guys that could take another step and maybe m McCutcheon understand something that is unique about the the experience of a black American player in America trying to trying to make that leap and so maybe his tutelage will be will be useful there but just being a solid hitter in that lineup I think will be will be good they need they need that in some of those spots yep they'll end up in a prominent spot in the order because of it. You mentioned strikeouts and I figured, let's talk about Jorge Alfaro.

He goes to the Red Sox and even with his flaws, as we've seen, he hits the ball very hard. He strikes out a lot, but he hits the ball hard. Behind the plate, he has at times shown good defensive ability. It's a little up and down but overall like this is one

of the best spots he could have landed in boston where reese mcguire and connor wong were the two catchers in the depth chart even with his flaws the bat x has jorge alfaro as the best offensive catching option of that trio so there's a chance he ends up with another pretty clear path to at least 300 plate appearances but maybe even a larger share than that depending on the performances of mcguire and wong and any sort of pressure those guys could possibly put on alfaro yeah wong has an option as well uh so it may end up being mcguire and alfaro to begin the season i think they're looking to see if any of them could be useful beyond i guess that is an interesting thing to say because if this team just decides oh man we you know with the story thing and you know we're we're in trouble are

they gonna go into the season being like this is a year to figure in trouble. Are they going to go into the season being like, this is a year to figure things out? Or are they going to go in the year being like, no, we're going to try and field the best team we can and win this year? Because that would be the kind of decision-making process that I would think about when I was thinking about Alfaro versus Wong.

Yeah. I think they see themselves as at least a wild card threat and if i mean they signed justin turner you know they signed turner they signed yoshida like yoshida's got a pretty nice projection from the bat x for you know just to throw that out there too uh cassis could be an impact guy at first the story injury stinks they re-signed Devers. That's huge. I don't think a massive cash outlay has ever been forgotten as quickly as

the Devers extension, that story news following it. Whatever credit you deserve as an organization for extending a franchise player. That went away so quickly. The shelf life on that should be more than 12 hours.

Sorry, it's just really bad timing. And I thought the shelf life on the Tatis extension was bad. Yeah. So I think part of it with the Red Sox was they had an expectation that Story was going to just stay healthy and be the guy that they signed, which I didn't think was outlandish at all. They basically replaced JD with Justin Turner like we talked about a few weeks ago. A lot cheaper, I guess. They added Yoshida at a level

that many people didn't expect them to, so he's going to be really important to them. They have to be right about that. A healthy Chris Sale is a big part of this team getting better. Is it unreasonable to think that Chris Sale could be a sub-350 ERA pitcher again with over a strikeout per inning as a legitimate number one starter? Like a top 15, top 20 starter league-wide?

I don't think that's ridiculous. So, you know, if you have healthy Sale, you get something from Cassis. The story injury still hurts, but you've got enough at a few spots to at least hang around. Their problem is the AL East. Yeah, you see the teams in division a little less. That's a tough division. We talked about that in the 3-0 show. They could be the worst team in the division as it stands today. That's

possible. And I think we all three of us, you and me and Katie Wu, all three of us were on the side that the Red Sox are more likely as they're currently constructed to be bottom two in the AL East as opposed to top three. Nick Pavetta's never taken a step forward. Corey Kluber is good when he's in, but he could totally fall apart.

Those are 4-5 guys. They're back-end starters. Yeah, but for them, I just named the top on the depth chart of Fangraphs their first and second starters. They need a lot. They need Brian Baio to take a step forward and be better than those guys. Then next guy is Garrett Whitlock, who was a reliever for them. I think their bullpen's a little better.

With the Jansen addition, Chris Martin being there, Schreiber's a holdover. That's a nice trio, at least. The A bullpen in Boston is pretty good. Maybe batters three through five in the lineup are decent. Yeah, and they probably have to sign Elvis Andrews. That's almost like a necessary. It's not where you really want to be in the middle of January.

You must sign Elvis Andrews to give yourself a chance to stay afloat. Yeah, I don't know. And I'm not even that excited about Christian Arroyo, even though there's some clear opportunity here. I know he's made good contact, but the barrel rates have never really gotten anywhere, so I feel like he's your classic Miguel Rojas, almost. I guess the projections say he's going to be a little better.

I can't figure out why, though. More contact? No. More know, I guess he's, you know, the projections say he's going to be a little better. I can't figure out why though. More, more contact. No more power. Maybe anyway, he looks like a classic two, two, two 69,

nine guy. If we want to use Oregon trail for an analogy, the Red Sox are fording the river and they should, everyone should always cock the wagon and float. They're trying to afford it. They're trying to just walk right through it. It's sometimes that works, but when it doesn't work,

it gets sideways. It is a disaster when you Ford the river and the river is deeper than you expect. I think that's the sort of season, the Red Sox, losing axles, all that Buffalo meat you gathered gone. Doubt is just floating away.

It's floating away. Just floating away. You shot 1,800 pounds of meat but could only carry 40 pounds back to camp. It's like, what are you doing? Not sure which team that is, but... Right. Is that the Rangers? Yeah, with the speed. With all the money they spent.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. It's like, oh, and you can only take all this back. You still only get a little bit better even though you spent all this money. Yeah. One other quick one. Luke Weaver to the Reds. Is anything there? Is it reliever time for Luke Weaver?

It could be. The changeup has been good and it stayed good and he's tried to add pitch after pitch to it I really think Michael Waka is the cop here because Michael Waka always had the change up Weaver has the change up, Waka tried to add the cutter, Weaver tried to add the cutter the cutter and slider has never been good for waka has never been really that good for weaver um but uh there's a little faint uh ability here that the fastball

stuff plus 89 isn't actually not that bad compared to to some starters some especially backhand starters uh the change up is a legitimate thing and the slider had a 97 stuff plus which's actually kind of low for a slider but uh there could be a three pitch mix there um he locates the curveball well so maybe there's even a four pitch mix there so i can see how someone's talked their way into it um and uh i'd be willing to give luke weaver a shot myself um but uh how does that rotation go you know like there's some pretty clear young guys that are that are definitely going to get as much burn as they want i think uh in green and lodolo as long as they're healthy uh i think that weaver might be the sixth starter because i think sessa is a starter and they traded for him to be a starter

uh and then there's graham ashcraft so now we've we've got ashcraft lodolo green and sessa that's four the fifth one goes down to weaver and dunn and then some some interesting guys in their own like brandon williamson connor overton Maybe Weaver's the fifth starter. Justin Dunn has some health issues. I think Weaver is one of at least three candidates for the fifth starter role. He's in a spot where he can win it. It's not a park where you like to stream all that much because home run issues can really be problematic there. I like him better than Dunn.

He probably makes the roster in some capacity. I don't think he's a cut at the end of spring training. If he doesn't make the rotation, I think they give him a shot as a reliever. Yeah, and he looks a little bit better suited to be a reliever than Justin Dunn, who has real command issues. Yeah, unfortunately it's just not working out so far for Justin Dunn. Last news item for today. Chris Paddock signed an extension with the Twins as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

And a little bit of a forgotten guy, I think, because he got hurt pretty early last season. But what is your kind of longer term outlook on Chris Paddock based on what we've seen up to this point in his career? Now coming off Tommy John surgery, once he's healthy enough to pitch again, where should we set our expectations for him? I, I mean, his projections is like a four ERA from steamer and below average strikeout rate.

Um, I don't know. He has plus command and there's always this slight possibility that the curve or the slider becomes a legit third pitch, and then he can strike more guys out and not be so changeup reliant in terms of getting his strikeouts. Because the changeup is not as good as breaking balls or getting whiffs. And that's why he hasn't had the high strikeout rates.

So I'm waiting for him to get a breaking ball, and I'm excited to see what he could do with a breaking ball. And so I think he's a 4 ERA guy with upside. Yeah, I think that's a fair sort of expectation at this point for Chris Paddock. He reminds me a little bit of Brandon Beachy. Atlanta pitcher from the early part of the last decade.

Two Tommy Johns and it just never quite came back for him. Looked really promising at the start of his career. I hope it's a better longer term outcome, but that second Tommy John, that's still pretty dicey. He's got a really good changeup and some issues

kind of getting those breaking balls to match the quality of the changeup. Brandon Beachy's only 36. He's still at an age where Brandon Beachy could have a random comeback. Yeah, he hasn't pitched in 2015.

Signed a minor league contract with the Giants in 2019. Yeah, probably done at this point. That's the last news item. But yeah, well, hopefully it turns out a little bit better than Vici's health outcomes for sure. Hoping for that as Paddock continues to go through those stages. It's more of a dynasty keeper league sort of lean, of course, for trying to stash him away. It's more of a Dynasty Keeper League sort of lean, of course, for trying to stash him away.

It's got to be a really deep league, though, if you want to use a roster spot on Chris Paddock at this point. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. As we may have mentioned earlier, draft and hold season is alive and well, so we'll have more observations from those drafts. I got one that just started.

Auto-drafted Edwin Diaz in the second. i'm so sorry anybody who's listening in that league i did not mean to do that uh i had a lot of things on my plate that day it basically decided my future uh employment situation and and a lot of things were going on that day so uh contracts were signed and and things went down and and i ended up with edwin diaz i thought i would hate it hate it hate it but it really opened me up to not do anything about relievers for the next 10 rounds um and so right now diaz woodruff glass now are my top three uh pitchers and tucker albies

bregman are my top three hitters uh after you know Ended up with Tim Anderson, Sean Murphy, and Reese Hoskins after that. I think we'll hear about this league as we're recording podcasts, but I don't hate it as much as I thought after picking Edwin Diaz in the second, which I would never do.

The other thing is, if you're setting KDS and you're about to do it, don't take the top four picks. I would say even the top five picks, maybe even top six. Set your KDS to favor seven through 15. Interesting. Well, I think we'll get more into the KDS details very soon. I've got one to draft and hold that just started.

The first one I did, I had number one. This one, I had picked 15, which was second in my KDS order. And the reason it was second, it's not because I think it's the second best position overall. It's because I hate being on the clock any more than I have to be because I am a menace to myself, constantly checking, checking, checking, checking. Oh, my God. I drive everybody in the house crazy. Yes, being in the middle has been awful. I feel like I'm always like, can I make your pick? I

gotta go. Yep. It's a little easier to check out and then check back in. And since you're making the two picks consecutively, you can sort of build faster. Everyone else gets one brick at a time. You get two. I think it's an advantage. I know our friend Ariel

Cohen is convinced that it's the opposite. Someday we will come to a resolution on that one. But if you've got questions for a future episode, send those our way at ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com. You can drop us a tweet. Eno is at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

We're back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening.