Rates & Barrels - Searching for Paths to Playing Time & Keeper League Stashes

Episode Date: August 16, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss season-ending back surgery for Christian Yelich and the Brewers' search for a left-handed bat to use near the heart of their lineup, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s elbow injury, a trip to the IL for Byron Buxton, a few prospects yet to debut with an eye toward breaking through for early 2025 debuts, the power ceiling of Junior Caminero, and a few players to consider on the waiver wire this weekend. Rundown 2:25 Christian Yelich's Season-Ending Back Surgery (Is Garrett Mitchell Good?) 9:27 A Lineup Vulnerable Against Elite Pitching in the Playoffs? 12:45 Jazz Chisholm Jr. To Miss Several Weeks 14:48 Byron Buxton Heads to the IL 17:47 Coby Mayo Returns to Triple-A; Similar Struggles to Henry Davis? 23:57 Searching for Yet-to-Debut Hitters w/Paths to Starting Roles in 2025 32:39 An Early Attempt to Solve the Cubs' Offseason Changes 42:33 Biggest K% Improvers Among Hitters in 2024 46:35 Junior Caminero's Power Ceiling 52:30 Join Us in Arizona for Baseball HQ's First Pitch Conference! https://www.baseballhq.com/pricing/first-pitch-arizona-2024 53:43 Weekend Waiver Preview Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Benefits vary by card, other conditions apply. ["The Daily Show Theme"] Bug the Rates of Barrels, it's Friday, August 16th, Derek Van Riper, you know, Saris, it's Friday and he cracks open a can of sparkling water. It is 8.55 in the morning, sir. I was buying six cases of LaCroix and the guy goes, man, you really like that. I was like, I think it's an addiction at this point. It just keeps me hydrated and away from other carbonated beverages. And it has zero calories.

I ordered a five pound bag of coffee recently. Speaking of addictions. Big bag of coffee. Yeah. That's a lot of commitment. It's not going to take me that long to grind through five bag of coffee. Yeah. That's a lot of commitment. It's not going to take me that long to grind through five pounds of coffee. What's your, what's your coffee? Maggie, my wife has a, has a very specific coffee. I ordered one from a roaster in Milwaukee. So you're willing to try to

kill things with a big bag. Yeah. We tried a small, you know, Oh, okay. So you tried it on its. Yeah. Yeah. It wasn't a blind. I don't think I'm quite that bowl. Cause if you get something you're not into and you five pounds of you drinking that for a month or you're giving it to someone else and hoping they like it. Starbucks, French roast, dark, uh, grind your own beans type of gal. That's an easy bean to find and probably one you could even get at Costco. So, actually there's some Costco politics going on with that right now.

I think. Lovely. Great. Well, we'll save that for our Costco podcast. On this episode of rates and barrels, we are going to look at some recent injury news. We're going to take a look at a mailbag question. I think a lot of people out there are wondering of players who have not debuted yet in the big leagues, who could have a path to a starting job in 2025, and ideally of those players who are low rostered in Keeper and Dynity leagues. We'll see if we can thread that needle.

We've got a Project Prospect with Junior Caminero coming back up, a couple of promotions from the Tigers. The Astros keep promoting guys. We've got some injury news in that section as well. And our weekend waiver preview. So a jammed packed show on this Friday. Let's begin with the injury news. Christian Jelic will undergo season ending back surgery. That announcement came Thursday.

Right after the Brewers split a series with the Dodgers. The vibes were really good. Two wins in less than 24 hours and then that nugget dropped. So as far as how it impacts playing time, we kind of have the template for what the Brewers have been doing recently without Jelic. And it's really a lot of Garrett Mitchell, including opportunities for Garrett Mitchell

to hit as high as third in the order because as we were discussing before the show, a lot of the key bats in that Brewers lineup are righties. So just finding a lefty that they can use to sort of break up that group of Churio, William Contreras, you know, like Hoskins is a righty, Adamas is a righty. You need some kind of productive lefty ideally within that group just to make it a little more difficult for opposing teams to pick through you with their best relievers. So my question for you is with an opportunity to hit higher in the order, losing occasional time against lefties still,

what do you make of Garrett Mitchell? Because I watch him a lot and I'm still not sure I like him as a, especially as a number three hitter, but I'm not sure he's even going to be shallow and medium league relevant with the bat, even though on a lot of teams he'd be a regular center fielder whose defense carries him to a large volume playing time. This I think is the most bizarre thing about him. Here are his babbips. 491, 378. I'm doing the big sample babbips. 444, major league 548 and a debut.

231 and AAA last year, 351 last year in the majors, 400 and 323 in the minors this year, 357. He's projected anywhere. Uh, Garrett Mitchell is from 314 to a 368 Babbip. Zips has him with a 368 Babbip. It's bizarre because nobody has him with above average power. So how is he getting to that Babbip? I guess he's fast and doesn't pull the ball a ton, kind of sprays the ball around.

Yes, those attributes are both true. And I think, you know, one thing that Mitchell does well, he's done well throughout his time in the big leagues, at least scattered over three seasons. He doesn't chase. And I think that helps you as far as hard hit rate, right? If you're saying, well, he doesn't have a ton of power. He has a 38.6% hard hit rate.

So even if it's the ball on the ground too much, I think his pitch selection works in his favor to at least make solid contact. So if you can hit line drives all over the place, that will, along with your speed, help you keep a higher average than you might have otherwise. If he had like a 22% strikeout rate or an 18% strikeout rate, I would like him, I think. Yeah. That's the number that you look at.

You're like, wait, where's that really going? I don't think he's a true talent 33, 35% strikeout rate guy, but projections point you to high twenties, low thirties right now. Yeah. I mean, even Zips with the 368 babbip and the 32.6% strikeout rate for Garret Mitchell. I mean, like what, what, what kind of a player is that? Is there a comp like that? Not an immediate one that comes to mind.

Plus he went to college and was drafted in the pandemic year in 2020. And so he's a little older than you think. He's just a, he's a strange player. He might be good. I just don't know if he's good. And when I did 50, it was too many bad players. So a hundred plate appearances above a 30% strikeout rate and below average power, but really good babbitt.

This is a really weird. Oh, and make sure you set an above average WRC plus though, too. Oliver Dunn shows up. They have a type. Kristen Pache. Might be a little better hitter than that, but okay. And Lee's Mitchell's a lefty. So the big side platoon role is a larger share of playing time.

Pache's a righty. So his role is smaller as a guy that would start against lefties and come in as like a late inning defensive replacement. Nolan Jones is showing up similar, I guess guess but Nolan Jones is like a power guy the faith in Nolan Jones's power is understandably much stronger Dude, I don't know. This is like a very unique player very unique nice

This is a unique player, I think. I can't really think of somebody like him. Leo Jimenez is showing a similar, but this might just be a small sample thing. I actually need to do a couple years with a bigger sample to really find a comp, right? I can't just be like, oh, this guy's doing it right now. This is kind of... Mitchell's projected to... Oh, I should look at projections, you know? Yeah, might be a few interesting comps going that route. I just, I think this is a special window for him to just prove it, right?

If he does a lot in these last six weeks, then he's maybe pushed himself into a spot where the Brewers prioritize Garrett Mitchell going into 2025. If he struggles and kind of slides into the bottom third of the order more often and loses a little more of that playing time, then maybe he's traded this winter. I think I have someone kind of. Blaze Alexander. Oh, great.

Another guy that's kind of a mystery box. He's projected for a 330 BABIP and a 31% strikeout rate and a 117 ISO. Cool. for a 330 BABIP and a 31% strikeout rate and a 117 ISO. Cool. So we took a really long way around and basically just chased our tail. I have him in autumn for buck where he's like my six or seventh outfielder and I play him against varieties just for, you know, if nobody else is playing.

That's how I'm using Garrett Mitchell. It's keeping it safe. It's 260, 352, 417 to begin his career against Wrighties. Not bad for a guy just debuting and coming through a bunch of injuries, but also not necessarily a difference maker unless he gets to that power more consistently or really pushes it with green lights on the base paths. What do you think this means for the, uh, for the brewers, playoff hopes and, you know, line up in general? I think it's been baked in as a possibility ever since the injury first came

up just prior to the deadline. I thought it was going to spur them to get one more position player. Eloy Jimenez would have been interesting except he's yet another righty, so that wouldn't have been a good fit given the handedness of so many of their hitters. I think it just makes them more vulnerable in the postseason because Yelich is on their short list of guys that I think can consistently hit elite pitching. I don't know how many guys in that lineup I would trust to do that. Willy Adames has been very good this year. I think Jackson Chur many guys in that lineup I would trust to do that Willie Adamis has been very good this year

The Jackson Churio looks like that kind of player William Contreras looks like that kind of player But I think that's where you start to look at them and say hmm Yeah, they've got a lot of other mixing and matching guys that against the best of the best pitching they would see in the postseason They may struggle to put runs on the board again Yeah in terms of the bat ex, uh, Willie Adonis, Reese Hoskins, William Contreras are the above average hitters projected that are still on the team. Um, so that's four. I think Jackson Trujillo with a 97 WRC plus projection.

I think he's better than that. I mean, I think he's playing his way into stardom right now. I think he looks really good right now. And, you know, the projections may not catch up that quickly on a young player like this who's, you know, making it happen in the big leagues. George, he's 95 WRC Plus. He's a he's a really credible guy, apparently one of the best in the business against same same handed breaking balls. He's he can serve those into into the short outfield pretty, pretty well. So like, you know, got some role players.

I do think this might put a little pressure on Tyler Black. Because, you know, you have Sal Freelick, Garrett Mitchell in the outfield, you know, with 90 WRC plus projections. And I just don't I'm not sure that either of them is going to go past that. And you could play Tyler Black in the outfield. Right. They have been using him as a D.H. and as a first baseman at the big league level.

They have so many outfielders who are good defenders. I think they don't really need to mess with that. Well, Gary Sanchez has a 101WRC plus projection, but have they been playing him at DH that much? Yeah, they do. They use Sanchez there when he's healthy. I think it's maybe Black and Sanchez end up being the tandem DH.

That might be the way they go about that. And Tyler Black might be the guy sort of competing with Garrett Mitchell to be that lefty that gets the hit in the prominent spot in the lineup to break up the righties. So if it breaks right for either one of them, there's some surplus value in deeper leagues. I just don't know if I trust either one of them enough in the short term to be excited in a 12-team league about the playing time opportunities they have right now. The weirdest thing about Black is that like he has a low strikeout rate in the minors and it seems to be something he can do really well, but right now striking out 32% of the time. So there's obviously a kind of a mega adjustment going on for him right now. Some of that's ABS. I think when your eye is as good as that especially,

it's just a different world and up and down, limited playing time has not made that easy for Tyler Black. Yeah, because like a 10% swinging strike rate for Tyler Black shouldn't produce a 32% strike rate. So that sounds like a lot of called strikes, you know? Yeah, when I watch him, it seems like he gets beat on close calls a lot. And it's the kinds of pitches

that major league pitchers execute that AAA guys might not be able to execute as Consistently now some other injury info to get to jazz chism We don't know if he's gonna have the season ending elbow surgery yet, but it's an elbow sprain So he's gonna miss several weeks and this is another situation where it was like perfect fit as far as a great move at the deadline He was playing really well. It's really unfortunate timing. And now you look and say, OK, the Yankees are back in a familiar place, right? They kind of needed jazz to be part of that secondary core,

to lift that group. Who do they turn to this time around? Do you like anyone emerging to get excess playing time in jazz's absence? Last couple of games have been Oswaldo Cabrera back at third base. Yeah, one thing that I like about Oswaldo Cabrera is what I didn't like about him when he debuted was that he struck out too much for the level of power that I thought he would have had true

talent-wise. And so that power prediction I think has come true. He's not hit for the same power that he did in a small sample in his rookie season. But Oswaldo Cabrera has cut the strikeout rate. So he's basically added to his true talent batting average capabilities. He does have some speed. He seems to me like a true talent kind of like maybe even as much as a 250 hitter. You know, pretty close to where he is batting average rise right now. And I think you could almost pace out what he's doing and make him like a 1515 player or a 1510 player. So if you want the kind of what would Osvaldo Cabrera do if he was given a full season, it would be, I think, like 250 with like a 300 OBP.

And I don't know if he would make it to a 400 slugging. So 1510, something like that. Yeah, well it's Garrett Mitchell with a lower OBP, is what you described. Yeah. He gets there pretty differently, but yeah. Yeah, the fringes of our leagues are just really, really tough to navigate for these reasons.

This is part of the year too, yeah. It really is. Byron Buxton landed on the IL for the twins. This is only the second IL stand for him for the year. Yeah, I mean, he may only need the minimum time. They haven't really confirmed that yet, but it doesn't sound like it's a season ender or anything like that. It's possible that if he's back before the end of the month or in early September that

we're going to see Byron Buxton reach his second highest plate appearance total as a big leaguer, the high water mark back in 2017, 511. Yeah, he might. This season so far, 335. I think he's going to cross 400. Yeah, I think he's got a good shot at it. He's been good. I mean, 275, 334, 528, 16 homers, 6 steals and 90 games.

That's great production where Buxton was going on draft day. It's just that the second stint on the IL it's more of the same, but it's just nice to see him on a per game basis, getting back closer to the player he's been at his peaks. Yeah. Even cut the strikeout rate a little bit. I mean, you know, with, with, you know, playing more often, you can, you can do something with the walk and strikeout rates, because you're just you're seeing the ball more

often, they're not stopping and starting and going back on rehab and whatever. So he's it's been a good year for him. I even like that he's cut the fly ball rate a little bit. Yeah, it kind of seemed like maybe the upper bounds of where he should be had been exceeded in that regard and just trimming that back a little bit might be the better optimized version. I don't know what to do with him. I think going for this year it looks like it's going to be the minimum.

That's what they're saying at least. And so I would hold on to him if I could. I don't really know what to do with him next year. Like I bought him for a little bit too expensive as maybe like a rental guy in auto new. And I had, I had him for like 19 bucks, which is, I don't think he would even keep him for that after the season. And if I had had a better team, I would have, I would have held onto him. I ended up throwing him in as a extra piece and a, you know,

here's a bunch of rentals for a prospect kind of deal. And but like, I don't know how much I'd pay for his services next year. You know, he's going to be back on the market again. And, you know, if I need a rental outfielder, he's like the forever rental outfielder in dynasty. Like you can't, I don't even know that you could trade him for much value in dynasty, even after a good season like this. I think Giancarlo Stanton is kind of in a similar situation, you know, because of injuries that seem to drag him down and the lack of reliability in that regard.

Like we're still excited by what's there tools wise. It's just 325 plate appearances a season for Stanton. 415 last year, 452 in 2022. And now he's a little older than Buxton too. So they're useful players, but you can't hold them at full price. You have to throw them back and keep your leagues. And yeah, I think they're always available, always inexpensive. Yep. I think that's a true group that a true, true group that exists and they're

both in it at this point. How about this one? Kobe Mayo got sent back to AAA and I thought they were going to play him more. You know, we wondered when they brought him up, like, you know, why would they bring him up to not play him? The times they used him, he was one for 17 with 10 strikeouts so they started playing Ramon Reyes instead. So is this just a tool in the bag for the Orioles where they're not necessarily going to just let guys fall in their face for a prolonged stretch they're

willing to send them back down to play that game a little bit to begin a player's career because I I didn't think Mayo had anything left to prove at AAA, but at the same time, every single game matters for the Orioles right now. So they really can't afford to let anybody work through adjustments on the fly down the stretch. There is a book on him and I can't believe how advanced books are now. When, by the time the a rookie comes to major leagues, they already got a whole plan against them.

And, you know, part of it, I think might be the fact that all the AAA, you know, is hooked up to stack cast in a way that, you know, every team can just, uh, check out, you know, their heat maps and in the same way that they could with a Major Liger. Because right now the book is extremely clear, they've been filling up the high outside corner to Kobe Mayo and he has not been able to do anything about it. I think they've been able to execute in a way that they may not have been able to execute in the minors, high and away is a little bit of a tough spot, you know, as a as a see here as a lefty that would be, you know, if you're missing high and away, that would be something you would try to change mechanically and not do, you know, that's like so it's, you know, a of, a lot of lefties and righties practice more kind of glove side command.

And so, you know, I don't know, this, this seems like something that you could see in the minor leagues and I'm not being good at and here in the major leagues, they're just filling it up and he's swinging to try and do something about it, but he does not make contact well away from his body. So they go on up away and down away and he's got nothing. Given that flub, thinking about the story you wrote with Britt earlier in the week and the ability that the Orioles have to find players that make adjustments and even help

them make those adjustments. I wonder if that's something that's somewhat correctable over an off season. You know, if that's the last hole that a player's trying to close up in their approach with their swing. He must be somewhat aware of it anyway, and he must've been dealing with it.

And he just, you know, the major league level is down, like they're even better. And like in the minor leagues, he might've been able to have a strategy where he's like, oh, I'm just gonna spit on things away, right? Cause they're not gonna be able to dot the strategy where he's like, I'm just going to spit on things away, right? Cause they're not going to be able to dot the, the I's and cross the T's out there, but in the major leagues they can.

So now he has to go back down and be like, okay, I'm going to spend some time swinging at pitches outside on the outside part of the plate that I used to take and, and, and find a strategy for that. It's interesting cues. We talked about Henry Davis earlier in this season and some of the struggles he was having with elevated fastballs. I don't know if they were just away, but I think they were pretty much all elevated fastballs. Yeah, we're talking about spoiling it and stuff.

Yeah, like you need to have that ability. And I'm not at all surprised to see Henry Davis down at AAA for the season now in 50 games, 12 homers, seven steals, 309, 406, 574. I think what we're seeing with guys like Davis and Mayo is like, they have bright big league futures, but that gap, it's just highlighted by how good they are in AAA and how much they struggle trying to find their footing in the big leagues right now. I think they're perfect examples of that where I wouldn't dismiss them in keeper and dynasty leagues, but I'm finding it more difficult to just

trust guys that dominate AAA to like even be good enough to keep their jobs in a lot of cases, their first time through. There's a common thread there too. I mean, you're talking about hiding away, right? And you're talking about ABS and AAA and ABS, I think after an initial rise in strikeout rate lowered the top of the zone a little bit. So there are actually more called strikes you can get in the major leagues off of a human higher in the zone.

So there could be very specific things that link these two players. Yeah. So I guess what'll have to decide, is that a flaw we're willing to buy into is fixable in the long run? I tend to think, you know, the one thing that I do think that the A's, the Oakland A's are right about is that, you know,

if you give me 10 guys with, you know, 900 OPSs in AAA, you know, like six of them or seven of them are going to, going to have major league careers. Right. And it'd be at least 750 OPS type guys in the big leagues. It might not be one for one. I'm not saying they'll all be superlative. Yeah. I'm just saying like they'll, they'll make it on some level. They do enough things well to figure it out once they get the promotion.

Quick welcome back to Michael Harris, who's already back in the Braves. Grand Slam, welcome back. And Tristan Casas coming back on Friday night. So maybe some leagues with limited IL spots where those guys had to have been dropped. Keep those guys in mind in case you happen to be in a league like that this weekend.

One little note on Tristan Kassos was that, um, he did not sound like he feels like he will be totally pain free this year. Um, he was able to play pretty well in the miners though. So, um, just, I wouldn't be surprised if the strikeout rate was a little bit outsized and you know you got three or four homers instead of the five or six he's projected. Yeah, then we'll see. See if he's able to put the pieces back together here in what's left of the season. Hello people, I am a Kim Wallera here, host of the Athletic FC podcast.

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for free. We hope you can join us for what is set to be another blockbuster season. Let's get to the big mailbag question that came in in discord, Jeff A and Tobias among others, basically asking of minor leaguers who are currently available in many keeper in dynasty leagues, who are some of the top position players most likely to have a starting spot on a big league club when the 2025 season starts. That is a very tough question to answer. We will make an effort. I would say if you bet against the field, you'd probably do better. Yeah. I would say generally the players we're going to name off, like they will likely

play significant roles in 2025, but you may have to wait for every single one of them to get a call up. None of them may be opening day starters. We'll do our best. We'll throw some intriguing names out there. The biggest pop-up guy in the minors this year from the Keith Law top 60 prospects midseason update is Christian Campbell in Boston. I think in a lot of keeper and dynasty

leagues, he probably has been scooped up because he's put up just absurd numbers at double a top the leaderboard in WRC plus. If you use a reasonable playing time filter at Campbell, the interesting thing about him is that he looks like the kind of player by all the scouting reports who moves around defensively because he's good at multiple spots, not because he lacks a position. So that I think does increase his chances of breaking through and finding a spot to begin 2025 in Boston. I think there's a chance he makes them better somewhere, even if we don't know where exactly

that first opportunity is going to come from for Campbell. Yeah, it reminds me a little of sort of like a Roman Anthony, you know, if you go back a little bit, you know, just someone who seems to doing all the right things and advancing and and, you know, advancing maybe faster than some of the lists can keep up, you know, so kudos for Keith for getting that on his update. If you're looking at a list that's older, you may not find them and that depends on that's the one thing I think that's really interesting in dynasty leagues is most

people cannot do their own scouting of all the leagues. And so they'll do a combination of stat counting scouting plus they'll have their guy, you know, they'll be a James Anderson guy or they'll be a Keith Law guy, you know, they'll have their, their prospect guru. And so, you know, there is some arbitrage to be had there where you're just like, Oh, you know, maybe I'd like this guy less than, Oh, if he's a Keith guy and I don't like him as much, you know, there's trade opportunities and stuff, or if he's, you know, somebody hasn't updated in a while and there's somebody who's popping up in between, you could maybe take advantage of that.

So, you know, this is something that you can do when you're trying to trade for trade away prospects is look at the different lists and see where they are and see if you can figure out, you know, what they're using. So I'll admit to this, even though I think my league mate does occasionally at least listen to the show, I try to, I don't know why I'm saying this,

but I'm gonna say anyway. Put the sauce out there. I'm gonna put the sauce out there. I'll tell you my secret if you're in my league and you're listening to the show, because I appreciate anybody who listens to the show. What I like to do is I like to buy players that fall on James Anderson's list in particular.

And the reason is, I think most of the people in my keeper league go to James. Use James Anderson. Right. And not fading James. I'm not. James is great. I love his work. I think it just creates the rare buying opportunity where I can get a player who's very tooled up.

Just being able to get a player is hard. Yes, right. Just saying, okay, right now the read on this player by someone that a lot of us really trust is that he's not a top 100 player, a top 100 prospect. It's Kevin Alcantara. So I thought, okay, we're in rental season in a keeper league, right?

Most people aren't giving you a lot for six weeks of anything. So if you're getting prospects back, we're in rental season in a keeper league, right? Most people aren't giving you a lot for six weeks of anything. So if you're getting prospects back, you're going to find a player type to take a chance on. That's really mimicked the major leagues, by the way, like top prospects do not get traded anymore. Yeah, of course. So that's the bin that I like to shop in via trade this time of year.

If I'm not contending, give me someone that everybody or a lot of people really liked who's currently down in value, who has loud tools that with six weeks could change their fortune or an off season could completely change and grow in a way where we come back to June of 2025 and the double up arrows next to their name. And we're talking about a top 50 prospect again. I think that's where I like to live when it comes to trading for rentals this time of year in particular, but a couple of other names I wanted to throw out here.

I mean, like when you talk like that, I think, you know, one of the guys that I think of that we didn't put on the list, I think, but I think deserves to be there. At least fits maybe into what you're talking about is Owen Owen Casey. With the Cubs and the reason why is that he has a 113 WRC plus in AAA this year. Fangrass only had him at 95th with 50 future value. And there are people who are sort of fixated on the strikeout rate and you know putting a 181 ISO next to a 28 to 30 percent strikeout rate as Casey is doing right now and that's CAI SSIE it's going to turn some

people off but if you kind of look at it you're like okay the power speed and patience are there he's hit a ball 115.5 and has a really nice hard hit rate. So, you know, if there was a chance to buy, if he fell on some list or another, there is an outside chance that he's playing for the Cubs next year. The Cubs are a little bit hard to tell because they're going in different directions. But could there be an Ian Hap trade? Could Suzuki be a full- D.H. next year? Yes, he's not good defensively.

So there could be an opening in that outfield. It may not be filled by Mike Tachman. We don't know where Pete Cody Ballinger is going or Pete Crowe Armstrong. So there's there's an outside chance that, you know, Casey just what if he goes on fire for the next month? I don't know, AFL or whatever, and then is on fire in spring. And they're just like, okay, this is a sort of not like Julio Rodriguez in the

exact same way, but like, this is a Julio Rodriguez situation where he's forcing his way onto the roster and we just have to play him. Yeah, I think that's definitely possible. The Cubs are also interesting because there are two position players on the infield that I think could find their way into The Cubs are also interesting because there are two position players on the infield that I think could find their way into at least, if not starting rolls for opening day, opportunities early in 2025. So I think they make the cut for this conversation.

Moises Ballesteros is a catcher kind of in the mold of Alejandro Kirk, as Keith pointed out in that aforementioned midseason update. But he could just hit. So if it's not an everyday catcher profile, if it's sometimes catching, sometimes DH-ing, I think that can work on this team because they don't necessarily have that plotting DH. They don't have the 35-year-old that can only DH. They have that floating spot. So I think Ballesteros is on the radar for sure. And catcher is one of those relatively weaker spots

right now. I like Miguel Amaya a little bit, but I don't think he's necessarily a shoe in to be 120 games a year behind the plate for them right now either. And Chris Rebettencourt is a journeyman who's going to sign a one-year deal with somebody next year again.

And he's 32 and has a 59 WRC plus and is projected for an 80 WRC plus. So like Christian Bethencourt is not, you know, the future. They could even sign him to a one year deal and drop him for Ballesteros in the middle of the season. And I think Miguel Amaya, even though I have some hope for him at a 25 years old with a nice strikeout rate, a nice max EV. Like there's some pieces here. He's also projected for 80 to 90 WRC plus, which is not really going to cut it unless you're in a two catcher deep league.

So, yeah, there's some opportunity there for the Cubs. I think the deal will be next year is Miguel Amaya 100 games. But I could see I could see a will be, you know, next year is Miguel Amaya, a hundred games, but, you know, I could see, I could see a different outcome too. But if it's, you know, 50 plus for Ballesteros is the backup catcher and then, you know, 50 more where he's the DH or 60 more where he's the DH, that can end up being pretty good in leagues where you got to start to at least. He's on my radar just because the production upper level production, age to level has been great so far with the bat.

What do you think about Matt Shaw? Because they made that trade for ESOC Parades. We know Parades is under club control for a while. So they brought somebody again, who looks like a fixture in their lineup. It's kind of like they have to trade or lose a position player somewhere to make Shaw fit into their picture, at least based on how their depth chart is built today. So Shaw's a little more of a highly regarded prospect. He's inside James's top 25.

They bumped up the AAA this year. There's power, there's speed, AA before the promotion. So I think he's getting close to taking over a spot. I just don't know where exactly they're going to fit him in given that parade, a straight, especially. I liked it. He's one of the few cubs prospects that doesn't strike out a lot. Um, and I do like his combination of skills right now.

He has played a 42 games at third, which has prompted a lot of people to put him there. 19 games short this year. You know, third baseman is now manned, as you pointed out by Isak Paredes. But, you know, there's a faction in Chicago that has tried to trade Nico Horner every year. And as he gets closer and closer, I guess to free agency that becomes more viable. It is an interesting package that this year is going to take a step back from the four win pace that he'd put up and it's going to be probably his worst offensive year and he hasn't added the power that you might hope for. So maybe you say, you know, internally, this is this is the best that Horners got for us

is league average offense and pretty good defense at second base. Is that what we need from that spot in the roster? And so, you know, there may be some change there. If Matt Shaw continues to produce as he has, he may push the issue. Or maybe he gets pushed into the outfield. Either maybe he inhabits his trade if they're selling next year. Or there's some change coming to Chicago Cubs roster,

I feel like. There has to be. It's got to be a trade. It's just something. It didn't work this year. At least it doesn't look like it's going to work unless something changes. And yet there's no like, there's no like, I don't think there's a really a scapegoat.

Is there a scapegoat where you can be like, oh, well, this guy was hurt all year. Or, I mean, steel was hurt a little bit. They've had some injuries in the in the pitching rotation. Maybe you just rerack it and say, let's get better luck from pitching. But I think you need a little bit more than that. Yeah. Swanson had a down year, but you can't like every team is going to have one player that has a down year, right?

You know, right. Yeah. You can't put it all on, on Dan's B. Swanson. I think it's just like a bunch of guys, maybe being five or 10% worse than expected and then having just a horrific bullpen for most of the year. That was a huge culprit for them too. Maybe a couple of injuries that just at the worst possible time

cost them a couple of games too. Kind of a weird collection of things. I saw it. I think it might have been Brett Taylor, Bleacher Nation. He used to be on the On to Wavelin podcast that we had. I think he'd mentioned that the Cubs are actually into the luxury tax this year, which like publicly facing numbers didn't have them there.

But if that's the case, like, wow, like you really, you really botched this year in a lot of ways, unfortunately, it's kind of a lost season for them. Oh yeah, payroll over at Fangrass 223. I mean, that's really close. Actually, yeah. Payroll over at Fangos 223. I mean, that's really close. Actually, actually, their luxury tax payroll is 233, which. 237 is the is the first apron. Right.

So it's close enough where I think we should always be willing to say it's possible, given that there's some detail. It's also kind of surprising when you think of that team, you're like, OK, that's it's not a cheap team. No, no, it's not.

But I think what makes them so interesting from a long-term perspective is that they do have a really good collection of upper level prospects. Which we've just been discussing a little bit. Yeah. Shaw looks like an impact player somewhere. His bat's an impact bat. We don't know where he fits defensively. Casey's close. James Triantos looks interesting. His bats an impact bat. We don't know where he fits defensively. Casey's close.

James Triantos looks interesting. Ballesteros can hit. If you've a bunch of guys that can hit, they don't fit defensively, then you do have to trade one or two of those guys to get better. I just wonder of the core guys that we assume are still going to be there, which one's gone. Nico makes sense as a trade target for a team that doesn't have a shortstop. Because when he played shortstop before Dan's B Swanson was there, it was a great defensive shortstop.

I don't think he'd be bad a few years later. He'd at least be average, but he's probably still above average defensively. You'd have him for two years on that longer term deal that he signed. He's also kind of cheaper. So if you're a mid-market team or something, you know, getting an $11 million veteran shortstop. Yeah. So if you can find a club that doesn't have shortstop pinned down, that has

some room for salary, then maybe there's your trade partner and then that would, you know, open up a few possibilities for them to play Matt Shaw at second base or do something along those lines. You could trade them for pitching. I mean, it's not what you would normally want to do. or do something along those lines. You could trade them for pitching. I mean, it's not what you would normally want to do. I think you'd normally want to build around hitting, but like,

you know, you need a closer, you need, you need assets in that restarting rotation. Yet again, Nico Horner to the Dodgers. We're always trying to trade short stops to the Dodgers now, just like we're always trying to trade pitching to the Orioles and all those things. If Ryan didn't have, just have surgery, you know, getting Ryan and some of you thought could close like. I get the sense we may have to check in with our friends, Sahad of Sharma

about the Cubs at some point. Yes, we should. Maybe we should have them on a Tuesday episode, you know, soon because they're really in the crux of it right now. Yeah. I want to see what the last six weeks bring before we really decide if it's a full, full sledgehammer sort of off season. Obviously it's sledgehammering and quickly rebuilding.

It's not giving up, but it's just like, who goes, who stays? How do you fix it? How do you make it better if you're the Cubs? A couple other names that caught our eye in getting ready for this. Augustin Ramirez, who was acquired by the Marlins at the trade deadline from the Yankees. I think that was low key a nice prospect shift where I don't know if I could see it as easily for the Yankees, especially given how

well Austin Wells has been playing behind the plate. But it's another situation where maybe it's not every day behind the plate. It might be catcher plus first base or catcher plus DH. And that roster in Miami is the perfect place to have skills like that. You can hit and you can play a couple of positions. Great. Sign me up. So I do think Ramirez might be one of the kind of underrated, especially again, in two catcher leagues type players that is out there in some keeper and dynasty leagues that can help you pretty early in 2025.

Yeah, they've got Nick Fortes still kicking around and then Ali Sanchez is the starter on the depth charts but hasn't produced very well and isn't projected that well and projected for like a 70 WRC plus. So Yeah, there's some opportunity there at you know in Miami just generally speaking of bad teams where there's opportunity but You know may not be obvious at first because the some of the players in the outfielders are playing pretty well, but in Colorado Yankeel Fernandez is Close and you've it looks like you've got Brenton Doyle at center, so

you may not place center, but Brenton Doyle does have a collection of skills that is not immune to collapse. In terms of, give him a 250 babbip next year and his line will look pretty bad. You know, with the 295 Abbott last year, Brenton Doyle had a 203 batting average of 250 on base percentage. So there is some opportunity there. But let's say you just points to pencil and you say, let's say you even have Nolan Jones coming back.

Then you have Yankee Fernandez, maybe fighting with Jordan Beck for playing playing time cuz i don't necessarily think the black ones coming back and even if. You have a jordan back pencil then you may have some opportunity depending on what chris bryant's body gives him next year and where they want to play him so you know you know, and Fernandez, he's I think, you know, he's he's 21, but he's already in AAA. And so it may not begin the season. I know the question was about beginning the season, but I would assume that he would begin the season in AAA and injury or collapse or just poor play from the the the major league team gives him a shot and. I'm not even sure exactly what Fernandez can do, but if you put the best parts of what he's done in the minor leagues together,

you have the potential for power and a good batting average because he has struck out in likes. The strikeout rates gone up and down is what I'm saying So if he goes into AAA next year and has like a 20% strikeout rate or 21% strikeout rate I'd still be pretty excited about him And so I think he's more like a name to watch Yeah, I think that's a good way to categorize him. I think Breton Doyle because of his defense He won a gold glove last year plays elite defense in centerfield. I think he's safer He won a gold glove last year plays elite defense in centerfield. I think he's safer than we'd ordinarily label a player that showed as much swing and miss he did last year. We also mentioned last week with Trevor, Brenton Doyle cut his cut of K rate as much as almost any regular in the big leagues.

He's got to be if he's not the leader in that category, like biggest K rate improvement among hitters, he's near the top of that leaderboard from 35% down to 26.7. So I think Brenton Doyle is in pretty good shape. I think he's a fixture for them in Colorado. And I think the rare tip of the cap again, Connor Wong, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Stevenson, Nick Castellanos, Mike L Garcia, Michael Massey, Anthony Rizzo, DJ Lemehu, Christopher Morel, and Carlos Correa are the top 10 in strikeout rate improvers. If you look at that from previous years, which you can do on that season stack grid page on Fran graphs, you'll see a lot of times big improvement and you give some back, you know, give it all back, but usually you swing real far into the

positive direction or the negative. Usually it comes back. Nick Castellanos has bounced around a fair amount. Yeah, that one's a pretty strange one. Uh, last name as we kind of move on from this segment, I think Nick York has a chance to be an opening day starter for the Pirates. I think it's maybe more of a question of what kind of ceiling does Nick York have? How deep of a league do you have to be in for the possible immediate

2020, 25 playing time to pay off for him? Yeah, none of like he has Doesn't have any big sample numbers in the minors with the better than 200 ISO And that's something that I do look for If I want to give them major league power, you're gonna expect some regression So if you're over 200 and you give under 200 in the major leagues Then you're still you can still be above average. He's projected for like a 113 to ISO Nick York is

By steamer and I can't necessarily argue with that. But what I will say is The the foundation is there for patience and contact and speed and a little bit of power Reminds me a little bit statistically of Joey Ortiz. So maybe like a 15-15 type player at second base. I think that'll be useful in more leagues than we expect. Where I would draft him would be as like my third or fourth second baseman, maybe fourth, depending on what time of year I'm drafting and what information I have in drafting holds, you know, where he's on your list of second baseman.

I'm pumped for draft and hold season already. And it's not because I want to throw out what's left of this season. There's a chance to win some leagues or at least finish the money in a few leagues, but I'm already geeked for it. Talking about some of the players like this that fit specifically in those 50 round formats. We'll probably dig into some pictures on a future episode that could make their way up and have prominent roles early in 2025. As we know, many teams just need guys now because of injuries.

So a lot of them keep moving up. Yeah, that's what we made it hard for us was, you know, if you're a rebuilding team right now, like who did you say that just got called up? The two of the names that we would have of them keep moving up. Yeah, that's what we made it hard for us was, you know, if you're a rebuilding team right now, like who did you say they just got called up? The two of the names that we would have used just got called up. Oh, yeah. Jace Young and Trey Sweeney, right? They would have this like it's like if you're if you're a rebuilding team, you're giving these guys auditions now to see how much they can adjust and try

to like walk the line of preserving rookie of the year eligibility for next year. So you're going to see a bunch of guys debut and some of those guys will probably go back to AAA to start the season based on how this goes. Others will do enough to push themselves into that conversation. So yeah, you're looking for mid-level teams near like fringe playoff or just first few teams out who have young talent that they can't push up right away, but they may push up because a veteran or two are gone via trade or agency. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. That's why we talk so much about the Cubs because they're like right in the middle of that mix. Yeah. Yeah. And even the Red Sox, Christian Campbell, Mussela Mayors, like

rostered everywhere. But I think there's a world where he's part of their plan in opening day 2025 too. It just depends on a lot of factors that are probably out of his control. Let's shift the focus over to a couple of prospect related items. One in particular I wanted to ask you about. Junior Caminero is back. So how much power are you projecting Caminero for? You can use the same kind of rubric or mindset

that you were using when we were talking about Jackson Churio recently. Where is the power now and where do you think the ceiling lies for Junior Kaminaro based on the information we have at our disposal? Well, one of the nice things is that since we talked about it, Churio has hit a ball 111. Yes.

And it's- It's not because I care about that singular data points, the possibility of hitting your max is still there when you're so young. Right. It's just like setting the new max. Yes. That's why I don't want to be quick to sweep the ball into the rug. Well, one nice thing about Kamier though, is that we have, you know, almost 300 plate appearances, um,

with which to judge. And it doesn't matter because he's hit a ball 117. He's shown us the top end stuff is there. And, uh, you know, we, we, we've been talking a lot about, about max TV this year, and this is the type of player where I do care the most about it. Uh, because it, I think it describes his upside. So 117, uh, the top 10,, the top 10 in qualified hitters goes to Bobby Witt 116.9 and Jose Ramirez 116.6. So if you put Jumina Camarero on this list, the top 10, the worst

case scenario is Yandy Diaz, which is relevant. It is another Tampa Bay guy who hits the ball on the ground. But if you had a young Yandy Diaz with better defense and slightly better ground ball rates, I think that's a good place to start with projecting with projecting junior Cameron era. You know you're going to have good strikeout rates. He's had pretty good. You may not have exactly the same eye as the idea. So maybe not exactly the same will be P but he has a little bit more defensive value and you know the strike the ground ball rates haven't been amazing but there have been some

where it's been more 42 and 48 and it's been over 50. And so you also have the option of going past the ideas in terms of game power. But it's there's some similarities there. And so I think that's that's instructive to be like there is a chance that Kevin comes up and only quote unquote hits to 80 with 25 homers and has this outsized max CV, but doesn't have the right ground ball fly ball mix to take most advantage of it. That's that's I think the sort of middle of the road way to project caminero. The way to get excited about caminero is say no, he accesses that and he improves his ground ball rate because in brown ball rate improves over time even naturally in aging curves.

So you say he's much younger than the NDDS. He's 21 years old. If you give him five years of improving his ground ball rate, sometime in the next five years, he could hit two 90, 300 with 35 homers. That's the top end, you know, projection for junior came here. And he already gets to that power enough. I mean, 13 homers and 53 games at AAA this year, 20 homers in 81 games at AA as a 19-year-old last year, even with ground ball rates above 50%.

So if he does lift the ball more consistently, given that the hard hit rates are so good, yeah, the sky really is the limit. I mean, just absurd potential power. I think the Too Long Didn't Read from Eric Langenhagen, 35 plus homers are probably on the limit. I mean, just absurd potential power. I think the, uh, too long. Didn't read from Eric Langenhagen. 35 plus homers are probably on the way. That's okay. That's you don't usually see that. I'm not sure I'd use the word probably because of, you know, there's a Tampa Bay type where it's,

they don't necessarily access all of their, uh, their possible power, maybe on purpose because they like line drives and they like pushing the envelope and they don't want to strike out too much so. You know the Tampa Bay offense is a different type of offense than the twins and Orioles and Red Sox offense. Those twins Orioles and Red Sox are good at slugging they really like bat speed they really like putting the ball in the air. They really like bat speed. They really like putting the ball in the air They can strike out more so Tampa's decided to be a little bit more of a line drivey type thing Which might cost them in power projection, but might help them with OVP and batting average and that sort of stuff. So You know, I you know, I think he would be a different player if he came up with Minnesota or Boston

interesting I You know, I think he would be a different player if he came up with Minnesota or Boston. Interesting. I was thinking about making a godfather offer for Kamen Arrow this weekend. Just an absurd purge my roster. This is a good time because I think what you're seeing now, 23% swing strike rate from Kamen Arrow is just, I think that's just a small sample thing. 38% strikeout rate. Like he is not the most disciplined hitter, but he can make contact on pitches outside of the zone. I don't know if I want junior Kaminari when he's 33 years old, but at 21 I'm into it. And I think this is just him coming to the big leagues and not knowing when to swing and when not to swing. You know what I mean? It's, it's just

sort of like he's, he's off on that and he'll find it. Even with that, 100% roster rates across most formats, is that a fair immediate tagline for Kamen Arrow because he could unlock it all so quickly? Yeah, I just, you know, I don't trust them in terms of playing time, but you'll get a lot more information over this weekend. Yeah. You got two straight games playing third base.

Maybe they're just like, hey, this season is lost. We're putting Caminero at third, and we're gonna go with that. Related to something I said in passing earlier, I think I mentioned Cade Horton out for the season for the Cubs among the random stuff that's gone wrong. I thought maybe we'd see him by this time in the year. He's got a last strand that he had to set back with.

Help permitting, maybe a guy we'll see in the fall league, but hopefully we see a lot of this time in the year. He's got a last strand that he had to set back with. Help permitting, maybe a guy will see in the fall league, but hopefully we see a lot of you at the fall league. The first pitch Arizona conference that baseball HQ puts together, October 31st through November 3rd this year. A little plug. I believe, and this is almost going on the schedule now. I believe we are going to present a brand new Stuff Plus

model. Hey. Totally revamped. A lot of different stuff under the hood. And so I have a big meeting with Max Bay about that tomorrow. And we may give people the chance to play along in a way that we haven't so far. Maybe open up the black box a little bit.

So that's cool. So maybe we'll see. We're going to see Max and Jordan in Finland at the, at the conference too. I don't know about Jordan. I'll reach out to him. It's a long way. It's a long way to go.

Far away from Finland, but. Finland the Phoenix. Oh, that's gotta be 20 hours. Yeah. Max has a little, has a little quick car ride. So we will see him there. Excellent. Well, yeah. So check out the details over at Baseball HQ.

The sooner you register, the less expensive the registration is. But tons of fun out there watching fall league games. Lots of presentations. Just a good hanging out as well with a lot of people that just love baseball. We're going to merge together the rest of our weekend waiver preview and some of the other project prospect names mentioned, Jace Young and Trey Sweeney up for the Tigers. What are you doing with those guys in redraft leagues? I would assume they're going to play a lot because the Tigers need to begin the evaluation

process with both players and figure out just how ready they are for 2025, when I imagine this team has some aspirations of contending for a playoff spot. Yeah, I was, I don't know if it's fair at all. I mean, I know my children are very different from each other, but I thought I would just peruse Josh Young's Smiley Strikeout rates real quick and compare them and there's something similar where both of them struck out less as they went at the beginning of their careers, the

Young brothers, and then struck out more as they sort of access their power and got older. So there's some similarities in their very patient power driven approach. What is different is that jace young's strikeout rates had never reached the same heights as Josh's and his triple a strikeout rate is much better than Josh young's strikeout rate was in triple a. strikeout rate was in AAA. So there may be an opportunity there for a slightly better batting average. What we don't know necessarily is if he'll reach the same top end power that his brother did. Um, and we have a 279 ISO for Jace Young in AA last year. That speaks well to that.

We don't know the batted ball stats for that. This year, a 198 ISO with a better strikeout rate. And you know, is that the right choice for him to make? I don't know. 111 max EV, 35% hard to hit rate. It's right on the line between is this 20 homer power or is this like 25 plus? And so there's a lot of questions to answer there, but if he hits the ground running, it could be a 250 average with 20 home or tight power right off the bat. I think that's fair to, I'm not sure expect, but that could be a fair sort of median outcome for him,

even right now. Even the projections won't give you that because they're gonna squish them into whatever debut bucket they've got and regress them. They say 220 batting average for Jace Young with 15 homer type power. So the would you rathers in this case, we're comparing them to second base and people are probably pretty frustrated with Zach Galoff right now, mostly in the batting average department. But you've mentioned before, he's working on some adjustments to his swing right now, Jace Young or Zach Galoff for the rest of 2024.

I mean, if you care about batting average, uh, there's a slightly, there's slightly more opportunity, uh, with Jace. So if, if my team needed batting average, uh, I might make that jump. Um, Zach, I was hitting one 98 and yes, you yes, with this thing that he's working on, his splits have improved a little bit. In July he hit 165 and in August 231 with a 436 slugging so far. So it's been better, but when better is 231, you know that you're probably getting more batting average from Jace. But Gelof is going to give you, I think, probably more homers and stolen bases.

Yeah, I think that's where it's hard to... We've already seen those categories from Gelof consistently enough. We're giving up on that is a pretty big leap. Let's move down a little bit though in the group. How about Miguel Vargas, who's come into a lot of playing time with the White Sox. Vargas versus Jace Young for the rest of the season. Yeah, now you're looking at, I think, similar-ish maybe batting average projections. I don't think Vargas really has wheels.

So you're not gonna be looking, you're not comparing stone bases. Jace Young for me. All right. So probably kind of in the 15 team redraft bin mostly, 12s might be a little bit of a stretch for the initial arrival here of Jace Young. What about Trey Sweeney? Slightly deeper leagues, similar size leagues. Where do you kind of draw the line on expectations for him?

I'm going deeper than Jace Young. leagues? Where do you kind of draw the line on expectations for him? I'm going deeper than Jason. I, you know, we just, um, we had a whole 440 plate appearances of below average work from Trey Sweeney in AAA for the Dodgers. So, um, I'm going to expect a slightly high strikeout rate. Uh, I'm not going to expect necessarily that he accesses his power all the way right away. And I'm not going to expect that they set him loose on the base pass right away as a

rookie. Got another name to throw at you. Shay Whitcomb, who has spent a lot of time at AAA for Houston. By a lot of time, I mean 195 games at AAA this year and last year. 25 homers, 26 steals,, a sub 20% K rate. That's been the big difference. Last season, Shea Wickham struck out 31% of the time, only walked 6% of the time.

This year, 19.8% for the K rate, 11% for the walk rate. It was ABS last year, it's ABS this year. He made some adjustments. Those are great tools. Is this, is this actually like a slightly older than expected breakout or is this sort of in the tray cabbage bucket of old-ish for the level fun production,

but it doesn't necessarily translate quickly at the big league level? What I think was also interesting to me is that despite this huge change in walk and strikeout rates, his hard hit maxed out, I mean, it literally exactly the same. From last year this year so he's managed to hold on to the power bit and he's not sacrifice power for contact. Which is I think is really exciting I think it could be a late breakout I mean it's not just.

I think you can have strikeout luck I don't think it's just that because his swing strike rate went from the. Almost 17, like 16 and 17 to 12%. So this looks just like either a better plan at the plate or he's spitting on something he used to spit or he, or he manages. He found a way to hit high fastballs or something, you know, like there's a, a real adjustment here. The only problem for me is that when we were talking about like opportunity and depth charts and stuff, I don't what's the opportunity necessarily for him?

You know, who's he playing over there? They did mention he's played some first base. So is he pushing Singleton and DesCenzo aside who you know? Singleton has been league average and DeCenzo has just been up for you know 26 played appearances of his own, you know, they pushing DeCenzo more to the out feel like I don't I don't know I don't know the story that I tell that I'm like, oh he's playing every day I wouldn't be surprised if Dezenso goes down to make room on the roster, because they're both righties.

If Whitcomb maybe plays first base when they face lefties, and then he moves into the outfield occasionally, Chas McCormick still plays a lot. So maybe take some time away from him. Tucker still being on the IL, leave some playing time open. I don't think it's an everyday role. I think it's probably a little more of a mono league

or maybe like a $1 auto new bid where you just say, let's just see where this goes. If you got a roster spot to burn, it's interesting. If he wasn't up right now, he might be on our list for next year. In terms of where this team is going next year, um, you know, you have Alex Bregman as a free agent. So they're, you know, are they going to just like paper that over, uh, on the,

on the inside? And then I think there's always Maricio Dubon is cheap, but he gets more expensive. And at some point, um, you know, you wonder, you know, what is the, the pay for production, uh, relationship look like? I don't think he's necessarily a starter at a position. So they may at some point decide to trade him or I mean, even decide not to pay the freight depending on what the arbitration number is. In which case they may have an opening for kind of a utility guy, which what comes like

seems to be like. Yeah, it seems like he can play a handful of different spots. Interesting waiver problem that I saw in discord from Farnsworth, who has to cut one of Andrew Vaughn or Alex Verdugo in an OPP league. I think it's, I think Vaughn's the easy keep. I think Vaughn for the last two and a half months has looked like the player we thought he'd be coming into the season. OPP might be his worst category, but he's looking like a 25 homer guy that's going to play every day at first base. Verdugo's got like two homers since June 1st, and he's not helping an OVP anyway.

So I think Verdugo is a guy that I'm ready to move on from because they they're gonna keep burying him in the lineup based on how he's been playing for the majority of the season now. It's just been underwhelming. So that's the direction I'd go with it. I mean, I like that he's a lefty in New York that makes contact, but he hasn't really capitalized on that short porch. And then I guess one of the things that I think is going to happen that I don't think has happened yet.

Jason Dominguez. Eventually. Yeah. That setback had another injury, but if he's, if he gets healthy Jason Dominguez is going to play cause he's back at triple A right now. Back at triple A. And, um, with the chance that jazz Chisholm has season ending surgery, it's not like a great fit because you're putting him in the outfield, but you could push Verdugo to first.

I mean, Dominguez, there's still like maybe an open audition for who's going to be behind the biggest hitters on this team, who's gonna help the second unit. I think this is the last good team Alex Verdugo is gonna play out of the big leagues. I know, I think this is the last good team. Alex Verdugo is going to play out of the big leagues. I mean, he's Dodger originally traded to Boston, traded the Yankees. I think good teams are done with this profile. I think he's going to end up on non-playoff teams for a few years.

And then that's it. And he's gone. Maybe it's traded at a deadline again to a good team to be an extra player someday. But I just think that I think think the only way that you can carry below average ISOs is with a defensive value, right? Yeah, and he doesn't really bring that. So, you know, if I were him, I would be training for power every chance I could get. Seems like if he could do it, he might have done it by now. But yeah, that's where I'm at. I'm out on Alex Verdugo. Just the five category does a little bit everything guy we saw a few years ago.

I don't think that's necessarily coming back at this point. We talked about Zebby Matthews earlier in the week, probably one of the more interesting pitchers available in a lot of leagues, I think, as long as he's holding down a spot and we've talked about the control, good arsenal. Look pretty good in that debut, kind of a thumbs up almost anywhere you need pitching given what he brings to the table. Yeah, the same thing he had in the minors ported over to the majors, three above average pitches by stuff and five pitches he can command with above average command.

That poured it over in terms of the stuff and location numbers. And in the eye test, I really enjoyed watching him pitch. It is interesting. As much as I will take chances on the Joe Boyles of the world over and over again, throw myself at the wall of Joe Boyle. I, you know, I do kind of enjoy watching, you know, good command because they get to do what they want to do with the ball. And so you can kind of start as and it's crisp and more efficient. And they're not doing like, you know, 20 pitch at bats or whatever.

It's like more, oh, he wanted to do that. He wanted to do that. You know, so it was fun to watch him pitch. I thought he did a great job. Oh, and they need, they need him. They need him. Yeah. They need a difference maker. Like they need a good starter to be in the mix.

If Ryan doesn't come back too, I think that's the other part of the appeal. Yeah. Like best case scenario is the playoffs. Yeah. The last name to throw at you as we go out the door, Adrian Del Castillo playing a lot right now for Arizona, big time power, good prospect coming out of the university of Miami a few years ago, Gabriel Moreno on the IAL, it's a longer term injury.

I don't know if these necessarily out for the year, but an impact bat, at least in terms of power, getting some runs. So in two catcher leagues, Del Castillo may be the best option. Jose replacing, oh, not Moreno. Moreno has been hurt. Yeah. Because Jose Herrera was the backup, but Herrera is more of just like that veteran stopgap type, I think. Oh, that's that's the one that's the one piece on Arizona that's pretty hard to replace, but at least they've got a hard hitting guy.

I'd expect him to strike out a lot. And, uh, and some of the hard hit is not amazing. So I do not think he has separated himself from the blob that is most catchers. It's after like the top 15 or so, it just turns into almost a $1 wasteland in most formats. We were talking, catching strategy. And I tend to think that just getting a couple of cheap ones

is really the best way to do it. I've done the offset where I've, you know, paid for JTO remoto and stuff. And then, you know, their, their careers are just so hard. They get hurt, you know, they, they fall off. They, they, they debut late and they fall off early. And it's just, it seems like it's a really hard position of playing the major leagues.

Yeah. I've got a $1 Joey Bart that I'm excited about right now. I'm my auto new roster. $1 David Fry. Still playing enough at the catcher position. We got to go. You know, he's got to chat. If you are a subscriber to the athletic, you could actually participate.

Theathletic.com slash rates and barrels will get you a subscription. $2 a month gets you in the door. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can find me at Derek VanRyeper. You can find the pod at rates and barrels. Thanks for watching!