Rates & Barrels - Second Base Breakdown

Episode Date: February 20, 2020

Rundown2:15 Gleyber Torres & Volatility7:26 One More Level from Ozzie Albies?10:26 Does Jose Altuve Still Belong in the Top 40?13:43 Can Ketel Marte Repeat His 2019 Breakout?18:39 Will Whit Merrifield's Steals Come Back?22:21 Paying Up for Jonathan Villar?28:00 Projecting K% Improvement for Keston Hiura31:41 Thinking Twice About Jeff McNeil?35:31 How Much Playing Time Will the Dodgers Give Gavin Lux?43:11 More Power to Come From Luis Arraez?47:20 Cavan Biggio vs. Tommy Edman58:27 Depth Options at Second BaseFollow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRipere-mail: [e-mail] Get 40% off a subscription to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode number 71. It's February 20th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. We continue our positional breakdown series. Now we move into the middle infield. This episode will focus on second baseman. That means shortstops are probably coming up to kick things off next week. If you're listening to this show on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, anywhere you can leave a rating, a review, we'd greatly appreciate it if you took the time to do that.

Tell your friends if you like the show. And if you're not already a subscriber to The Athletic, you can get 40% off a subscription at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. Everything we do, the draft kit, Jake Seeley's projections, Eno's articles, team coverage, it's all included with a subscription to the site. What's going on today, Eno? I don't know, man. I like these short weeks from, oh, hey, it's almost the weekend already.

I like these short weeks from a, Oh, Hey, it's almost, uh, the weekend already. Although it's, it's one of these weird short weeks where it's like, my kids have been home. So it's felt like a short week, but I've been working. It's like one of these faux holidays, president's day. So, uh, it's kind of been in between, but, um, I, I took the kids ice skating last night and, uh, and I was pretty good at pickup ball. So, you know, everything's coming up Milhouse. That's a good way to put it. I love that it happens, I think, when things are flooding and Milhouse is wearing flood pants. Everything's coming up Milhouse.

Everything coming up Milhouse is always a reference to that. One of the classic. Oh, and Labor's next weekend. It is. And I'm sure we'll do something special while we're there. What exactly that is, I haven't quite pinned it down yet. But we'll talk in person. We'll share some beers.

We have the Labor auctions. First Pitch Florida is going on next weekend, too. So if you have the means to just pack up and go on a trip a week from now in Florida, join us. It'll be fun out there in the sun. You can check in on the auctions, listen to some great content along the way as well. Let's talk about second base. It is a position without a first rounder. If you look at NFBC ADPs going back to February 1st, it's really a position that doesn't have anybody going the first two rounds on average.

Now that's kind of splitting hairs because Gleyber Torres could creep into the back of the second round. Jose Altuve maybe could. But it's a funny position because Torres at the top has eligibility at shortstop too, by the way. It's nice to have the option, even though he's

going to probably lose second base over the course of this season. He did so much damage last year against the Orioles, and this is something that I heard the guys on Sleeper in the Bus, Sporer and Justin Mason, were on that day. They brought this up that the splits against the Orioles for Gleyber Torres were just ridiculously good, and the numbers against everybody else were just good, average. Does that give you any concern at all? Just given the makeup of last year's production, or is it something that you can kind of brush aside factoring in that the

Orioles are probably going to be just as bad as they were last season? I'm sure that the park also is part of it. So, you know, he's still going to get to hitting that park in the latter half of the year when it's super hot and the ball flies out. So I'm not super worried about it. I think it does speak to one thing about him that I think actually should become less of a worry as he gets older because, you know, he's 23 years old and he's super streaky. Just looking at his swings in Woba, he has long stretches of time where his rolling Woba is near 500.

And nobody does that. That's like superstar status. And then he has valleys where he's down by 200 which is just you know unplayable and so i could see some head-to-head players being like i don't i don't really dig on him because because of he loses me weeks and he you know i guess he wins me weeks but in roto once you all add it all up together he's one of he's maybe i think he's my favorite second baseman. And we can get to that in a second. But the thing that's hopeful about that is that volatility goes down over time.

I once aged a stat called volatility, which Bill Petty created, which measures the difference between your peaks and valleys and measures the sort of rate at which you oscillate between your top and bottom. And volatility goes down over your career because you, well, in the piece that I wrote about it, I surmise that it's because you learn tricks on how to react and how to sort of calm things out. And I made a sort of correlation to people actually generally get happier as they get older. And the reason they get happier as they're older, this is the result of a study that I worked on in college. The reason they get happier as they get older

is because they learn coping mechanisms. They learn, oh man, I feel bad right now. I'm going to go for a run. I'm going to go take the dog out. I'm going to go eat a tub of ice cream. Whatever it is, they've figured out certain things to sort of make themselves feel better when they feel bad. And I think the baseball equivalent of that is, oh, I'm going to go watch some video. Oh, I'm going to take a break. Oh, I'm going to, you know, there's all these different things you can do. And if you learn these coping mechanisms, maybe you squish it together. Of course, the peaks won't be as high because you're not as good as you were because you're getting older, but the valleys aren't as low because you've learned these mechanisms to kind of keep you on an even keel.

So I think that Gleyber will flatten those out and be less streaky as he gets older. And in terms of places he can improve by aging curves, he could still improve his strikeout rate. He can still improve his walk rate. His O swing is pretty high, his reach rate. That improves until you're 26. And all of these things together could, and you take more pitches as you get older too.

And for him, his swing rate is pretty high. I mean, he's at 51.9. The average is 47 in terms of just swinging. So over time, I expect him to get more walks. And the projections have this baked in for the most part. But I believe the projections that give him the most improvement in walk rate and strikeout rate, something like zips, which has him hitting 287. I don't know if he'll hit 41 homers, but the low, you know, ATC and the bat have him at the low end because they regress the run environment. But yeah, if the ball is the same, I could see him hitting 280, 290 with 40 homers next year. That's pretty good. I mean, it's amazing that he could already repeat that level year over year

in his early 20s, but you're right. There is room for improvement with those plate skills, and we saw higher walk rates and lower strikeout rates in the minor leagues. He has kind of shown that skill. Whether or not he can make those adjustments to that level against big league pitching remains to be seen, but it's at least a possibility given how young he is. Ozzy Albies is really young too. I mean, I think it's easy to forget how young he is because he came up to the big leagues a couple of seasons ago. I'm kind of

intrigued by him. He just turned 23 in January, hit 295. So the best we've seen from him in two and a third seasons, I guess we could say since he got called up in 2017. Stolen bases are solid. 15 bags in 2019, 14 bags in 2018. Doesn't get caught very often. Back-to-back 24 home run seasons. I just wonder if similar things could apply to Ozzy Albies, given how young he is as well. The raw power might be a tick below what Gleyber Torres could offer, maybe even two ticks below. But there's a lot to like in Albie's profile, and I have to wonder,

have we seen his very best season yet? Yeah, I mean, the numbers suggest we shouldn't. I think that for him, the aging, the positive parts of aging come in his work against righties. I don't think he's switch-hitted his whole life, or at least he has not been as good from the left side switch-hitting. And there had been even talk about him quitting switch-h hitting and is he a platoon player coming up and stuff like that? You know, for his career, he's basically league average against righties. And

that's what he was in 2017, 2019. That's not as exciting, but he murders lefties to the point where, you know, let me see what the numbers are. He's league average against righties and for his career, 56% better than league average against lefties. I mean, he murders lefties. So he's definitely better from that side. But I have a feeling that, you know, yes, you have two different swings. But since he's good enough from the right side, he's going to keep getting more reps. I mean, from the left side, he's going to keep getting more reps. And I think he's going to improve there. So if he does have a great year, it's a year where he hits 20% better than league average against righties. I'm not asking for him to hit 56% better than league average than he does against lefties, but

a year where maybe it's a little bit of good fortune on balls and play. He hasn't had that against righties. Maybe he figures out a little something in his hitch. He has a really big leg kick, and he's played with making that bigger and smaller. So maybe he finds the sort of ideal leg kick there. Whatever it is, it's good that he doesn't strike out a lot against righties, so he still has that hit tool. He's generally started walking more against righties, so he's adding a little bit more patience and i could see like a big leap forward where he has like a 210 iso against righties and hits 30 home runs uh because he because he's improved against righties so now if you have 30 home runs 15 stolen bases you know 280 290 average uh he's my second favorite

uh second baseman and you might have noticed i haven't said someone i kind of sidestepped jose el tuve and and cattell marte at this point but el tuve and the same kinds of questions we brought up with alex bregman on the third base episode apply i mean are we are we drawing with that projection all the way back to like pre-2017 levels i mean it seems weird to do something like that with Altuve, right? He's a highly skilled player. His seasonal age is 30. He doesn't steal bases

like he used to. I don't think it's coming back. There's at least some skills erosion, if not massive skills erosion there. It's weird. The projections spit out kind of an optimistic total across the board. ATC is the lowest with 10 steals projected for

Altuve. Zips and the bat come in with 16. I mean, over under on 10 steals for Altuve this year? Under. Jose Altuve has the same sprint speed as JT Real Mudo, Aristides Aquino, Hunter

Pence. There's a catcher in there. I love Hunter Pence. He's a lot older than Altuve and not a guy that I would have thought would have been. I want to be fair. Whit Merrifield is right there. But we're talking about how hard Whit Merrifield's stolen bases are falling off too.

And Ozzy Alves is there. So that's fair. But we just said that Ozzy Alves is going to steal 10 to 15. So, I mean, the absolute cap for me is 15, and it's kind of crazy to me to see people project 15. That's the cap for me. So now we're talking about, I think, 10 stolen bases. I think there's going to be power regression, and I don't necessarily, I think part of it is, you know, age, you know, turning 30. Maybe you could bake in some missed time for HPP. But just generally, if you looked at this, you would regress him.

Even, I know the ball was crazier last day than ever before, but he had a.252 ISO. His career high before that was.202, and the one before that is.194. So you're going to regress that. So I would say 24 homers, 10 stolen bases,.295 average. That's kind of a steamer projection. And if it skews in a direction, it skews the wrong way. That's my projection for Jose Altuve, which is pretty much the same projection as Ozzy Albee's. But the range of outcomes is skewed in the positive direction for Ozzy Albee's.

And the range of outcomes for Jose Altuve is skewed in the negative direction. And then you add draft cost. Right. Similar prices in ADP, I mean, guys that are going within a couple picks of each other. So you're on Torres, you're on Albies. No issues with the prices on those two guys, but you're probably waiting at least a round off that ADP

before you actually draft Altuve then? What is the ADP? 36.5. And what was Albies? 38.9. Yeah, I mean, like I said, I have them similar. I what was albies 38.9 yeah i mean like i said i have them similar i would i would i would draft albies first all right so it's not that much of a discount though on altuve but you need to fall a little bit off that price before you're going to do it i mean second base is a top heavy position as uh you're going to find over the course of this episode cattell marte also eligible

in the outfield. He's a tricky player because I don't think anybody expected the breakout that he had last season. Simple question for Quetel Marte, where do we go from here? I mean, this is an unprecedented amount of power we saw from him. Sure, the rabbit ball probably helped, but do you split the difference between 2018 and 2019 power wise for him my sense was that he just hit the ball harder and thankfully stack has is working again he hit the ball harder uh best barrel rate of his career by almost double he outshone his ex wobble by a little

bit but he had the best wobble con of his career the best hard hit rate of his career best barrel rate of his career you know there were subjective reports of changes to his mechanics i yeah i would i would i think that i would just kind of i would go projections on this because i feel like there's going to be a little bit of regression just because you know he had such a big standout year and you know whatever he had such a big standout year and, you know, whatever he figured out, maybe there'll be an adjustment back from pitchers. But I tend to like the better, the better side of the projections. ATC has a 295, 24 homers and 10 stolen bases. I think the stolen bases are a big question because

he wasn't super healthy last year and he stole 10 and that's great but he stole 9 in the last two years combined before that and let me see where his sprint speed is at somebody was telling me

that sprint speed is less important as times to first Jeff Zimmerman was telling me that because there's so much is less important as times to first. Jeff Zimmerman was telling me that. Because there's so much that has to do with how quickly you get out of the box. Right, the first few steps, the explosiveness is kind of key. But I bet you could figure it out. Within sprint speed, there are splits like first 10 feet and so on and so forth.

I bet you could figure out that one of those is more important than the rest. But I could tell Marte is between Brian Goodwin and Mookie Betts. Not really a concern on the speed front. A little bit ahead of Lorenzo Cain, who's fallen off. I would say, you know, 5 to 10. I don't think he'll steal more than 10. But mid-20s home runs? I think at least. I think he's going can at least hit 25 homers. I mean,

there is the question of what the ball is like, but with this ball, 25 homers is someone who used to hit 15. That's how I feel. I know it's not across the board, but 25 homers is just really attainable for so many players. And his barrel rate was really good nine nine point three percent barrel rate is almost double the league average what's his adp 42 so he's near the back of the third round of a 15 team league and if i don't get albies or torres i want to get marty or here and i don't mind waiting a little bit into the merrifield mustakis area but i did want to point out that owen Poindexter's piece, again, referencing it, very good piece. He has Z scores above, just Z scores by bat,

and he's done it by position. And the last above average bat at second base is DJ LeMayhew. He's like eighth in ADP. I'm like second baseman. And then after that, so there is actually a position scarcity, even in 12 team leagues this year and at second base. So guys like Kevin Newman, even Max Muncy on his projection, he's using projected Z scores above average. Even Max Muncy on his is below zero. kevin newman starlin castro tommy edmund michael chavis even kevin biggio as much as i like biggio and solak uh solak you have to check your position eligibilities in your league but there's a bunch of players we can talk about there that i do like and if you get screwed just wait really long and take one of those. But I kind of think in like 12 and even in 15 team leagues,

I think I want to think about my second base strategy. Yeah, I think you need to have a few backup plans, some late options in your pocket to throw darts on, at least guys that you think are going to play a lot if you miss out on the top end options you want. But you may have to prioritize those elite options because other positions we talked about so far,

first and third, especially have a lot more depth. That's where, you know, passing on a third baseman, you might like in the third round passing on Chris Bryant to take a Whitmer field. For example,

if you think he's part of that cliff, that's something you might have to do this year, just based on the shape of the second base position as owen referred to it in his piece it really is a good piece we should probably put a link to that in the podcast notes the interesting thing about whit merrifield for me by the way we'll talk about jonathan vr in a second too we're not skipping him everyone has this belief that because of mike matheny the royals aren't going to run and i just i don't buy that i don't think teams have their tendencies adjusted that much by a manager at this point

i think it's an organizational philosophy i mean the way the roster is built compared to the way the cardinals rosters that matheny managed in years past has built, it's very different. You've got a lot of guys that do damage in that regard. And the knock on Merrifield is that he was 20 for 30 last year, so it was a pretty big step back in success rate. But I just have a hard time believing that he's going to run less simply because of Matheny. No, I think he's going to run less because it's not necessarily his success rate that bothers me so much. It's his attempt rate.

He attempted 55 steals in 2018, and he only attempted 30 the next year. He attempted 42 the year before. I don't know. The projections all say he's going to steal more bases this year in fewer plate appearances. It's magic, isn't it? Yeah.

I don't. The aging curve on stolen bases is terrible. He's 31. I don't know, man. I don't know. I don't. I think he could have a 15-15 season. And I think he could find 15-15 seasons

and some of the players we're going to talk about later in this episode who go 150 picks later. So, you know, why jeopardize throwing away a pick or losing so much value on a pick where Merrifield goes? He's one of those guys that at his price, I never end up with him. So maybe

in an auction, I could see it happening. But even there, I'd probably just steer around him. ADP is 57. So he's going like a round after Ketel Marte? Yeah. By projections, he's worth $5 less.

And players like Hira, LeMahieu, and McNeil are worth more. And Moustakas is, this is by projections by the auction calculator, Moustakas is about the same as Merrifield. Yeah, I just don't think I'm going to end up with him. If you, yeah, I don't think so. The batting average, though, I will say that in, among sharps,

sometimes, you know, he'll drop way further than that. bet you there's a min is it the min yeah what's the min on him the well the latest he's gone is pick 85 that's the furthest he's fallen it's the max the min is 38 so he's been pushed up inside the top 40 at least one time i'm at the max so the the max is 85. Now you're talking, if you're talking he's there for you in the sixth round, now I'm interested because batting average is scarce. So are the 15-15 guys

that we're going to talk about later, do they have a 290-300 batting average? And if you make it like an AL only league, um, and, and generate your, your, your values, um, you know, that batting average soars to the top and Merrifield becomes a $23 second baseman, third best second baseman in the, in the AL. And it's mostly value out of batting average, although stone bases too. So, you know, there are times when sharps are out on a player too much. Generally, I'm not super into it. Yeah, totally understand the reasoning there.

Moving back up just a little bit, part of that earlier cluster, Jonathan VR carrying an ADP just inside the top 45 right now, already eligible short and second, probably going to play in the outfield, might even move off the outfield and play a little third base at some points. Kind of just sounds like he's, I've compared him to like Nico Goodrum just from a usage standpoint because the Marlins have other players they're going to want to play at various spots injuries are going to happen they're just going to use VR wherever they have playing time available like he's going to play a lot it's just going to come at four or five different positions so he may become even more versatile over the course of the season we've seen him disappoint with lofty expectations before of course course, coming off that 19-homer, 62-steal season with the Brewers

in 2016. He hit 11 homers, stole 23 bases in 122 games as a follow-up. Coming off a 24-homer, 40-steal season a year ago with the Orioles, moving into a much more pitcher-friendly environment, even with the fences coming in, what's next for Jonathan Vill VR? I mean, is he a guy you trust at that high ADP? No, but my sense going in was he was an infielder, and so one of the reasons I was prepared to say I'm not into him is because last year by a stat cast outs above average, there were only four players that were worse on defense out of 139. It's not good.

That part's not good. And that's something I think that has depressed his value on the trade market, has made fans of teams of his kind of be like, yeah, but he's not that good. And I think that's been the secret underlying problem, I guess, quote unquote problem with his playing time, because it was playing time, you know, going in and out a little bit, the Brewers kind of made him more of a platoon guy, I think, or a part time guy, their last year they had him. And I don't necessarily know that the defensive component of Windsor replacement has

caught how bad he is because he's been just slightly bad, um, by that sort of defensive component. Cause he's played a lot of premium positions. Um, whereas maybe he's really, really bad. So, um, it may be the war overrates him and that he's really kind of closer to someone like Emilio Bonifacio than we all want to admit. But if we gave 714 plate appearances to Emilio Bonifacio, how many home runs would you have hit last year? Like three? Even with the rabbit ball? One without it? Maybe, I don't know. Like maybe three is now seven. I don't know, but so VR does have more power, nearly league average last year, I think, I'm just not excited about him, you know, 28 on a team, now he's a center fielder, the center fielder does take some pressure off of

that bad defense, but they are putting him in a premium position in the outfield. And, you know, is he going to be good there or is he going to be bad there? And if he's bad there, now he's one of those utility guys that's kind of got a meh glove everywhere. And do you really, you kind of want to get him in there for some offense, but do you really care about getting him in there? Especially if you're building a team where all of a sudden you've got legitimate options at these places? where all of a sudden you've got legitimate options at these places. Like, what if Monte Harrison or Louis Brinson finally break out? Oh, okay, now VR is going to play all over as sort of a backup because his glove's not really good enough to take a shortstop away

from our weakest player there. You know what I mean? So there's definitely a weakness in his candidacy for sort of everydayness. And you can just see it in his career. I mean, 241 plate appearances, 289, 128, 679, 436, 500, 700. He's all over the place. So I could see just as easily the year, the 2017, I could see that happening. 241, 400 play appearances, 11 homers, 23 stolen bases. That's super, super, I would almost say likely. Yeah, I think 2018 is more like the bottom end for the slash line.

The stolen bases, you get the 35 steals that year. So much of that damage, damage i think was coming in the second half of the season after he got traded to baltimore i think that's probably closer to where the floor is for me but i have a hard time drafting a player in the first few rounds of a draft or spending 20 plus dollars in an auction on a guy who's been a below-average offensive player in two of the last three seasons. My mind, it doesn't want to do that. And his best year was 7% above. It's like, really, he kind of, in my mind,

he belongs in the kind of Malik Smith area. Yeah, but he's a little bit better because he has more power. He tricks us because of the power. Yeah, he's not a one-category or two-category guy. But he's closer to that than his draft position right so i think what it comes down to for me is like i i could see vr being profitable from that spot i could see him playing four times a week instead of six and being kind of an annoying mixed league player it's like you don't take a guy like that inside the top 50 that

just that doesn't happen i see the paths for him to be good, but I see more paths for him to be a disappointment. So why do that? Especially within the position with so many guys clustered together, you might be choosing between several of these players that we're talking about. Keston Hira is right next to him in ADP. Keston Hira is the ultimate what-can-go-right sort of player. It's kind of like we talked about with Gleyber Torres.

He can get better. I won Hira a million times over there, even with the strikeout rate issues last year. Right. The strikeout rate jumped at AAA, jumped even more when he debuted with the Brewers. But he is an all-fields hitter with power, with some speed to go with it, too. So he's a non-zero speed guy. He had nine steals in 84 games only caught three times i think the average can stay pretty high for a guy that had a high

strikeout rate last year because i'm expecting the k rate to come down in the minor leagues i know those are noisy as hell but they were huge he's a guy that hits ropes all over the field like look look where he hits his home runs too like He's not the guy that just gets up there and when someone leaves him a fastball, he just yanks it out to left field and that's how he hits all his home runs. He hits them all over the place. It also speaks to a philosophy thing

where you're like, oh my God, I need stolen bases and it's easier to get them, easier to put it in here in this weak position. I'm going to take VR because I'm putting these 35 stolen bases at second base where it's a bad position. Boom, done. You know, I get, I get the impetus to do that, but I, you know, I think, uh, we've talked about this before with like Oscar Mercado and like, I did a draft recently where I got Oscar Mercado and Elvis Andrews in double digit rounds. And,

you know, I expect to get sort of 40, 45 stolen bases from them. And I'd gotten a few stolen bases before. And like, I don't feel like I sold out any of my main tenants about, you know, trying to add power speed combos and this and that i don't think i i have anybody on my team that's like not gonna play because he's so bad and it's just like um you know like the tiny floor guy like malik smith and you know i uh the worst guy on my team that is like that is kevin kiermeier and uh you know he's droppable you know so i i feel like doing vr is like investing too much into someone who has a very low floor here is higher floor way higher ceiling do that and then if you're still worried about stolen bases take some shots later on guys that can steal bases yeah i think there's a convenience tax being placed on on jonathan vr it's like buying food at the terminal in the airport.

You're just paying. It's still, in many airports, still edible food, but you're just paying double or triple what you should for that skill set. I like that. That's pretty good. Yeah, here's your $18 Jersey Mike sub. Yeah, right. Well, I like Jersey Mike, but Jesus.

Yeah, $18? That's a little steep, right. Well, I like Jersey Mike, but Jesus. Yeah, $18? That's a little steep, right? So, I don't know. I just feel bad ragging on him, but yeah, Keston Hira, I have a hard time looking at him and saying, yeah, he's going to strike out 30% of the time again this year. I'd be very surprised if it played out that way. Yeah, I would

have to take odds to take VR over H take vr over hero all right let's move down to the next chunk of this list it's a few guys that we talked about on the third base episode so we're not going to get too in depth on them here but you have the multi-position guys and dj lemay hugh max muncie jeff mcneil uh with mcneil the question that I keep coming back to and this popped up on fantasy baseball on 15 this morning they have a crowd in New York I don't know if McNeil gets negatively impacted by it but do you see him as being safe playing time wise because skills wise I don't really have a lot of doubts about what he did last year I mean is there anything in Jeff

McNeil's profile that makes you think twice about him as a guy who's pretty consistently inside the top 100 overall? I think we're on the upper bounds of both his production when it comes to home runs and stolen bases. So there is a little bit of some worry that he's more like an 18-homer,

three-steal guy next year. But the batting average I believe in, and in terms of how his defense is going to play, I don't know if he didn't play enough on the infield to qualify there for outs above average. Got to look at the breakout by games. At least 20 each at second and third, which is kind of a lot but

it's a lot for our purposes not for defensive metrics purposes while you check that out the weird thing too if you look at the auction calculator i'm using the bat 15 teams seven bench spots for anybody who wants to just run this while we're talking about it jeff mcneil eduardo escobar dj lemay hue max mun, they're all clustered together in that $13 to $14 range. Whit Merrifield right there, 14.8, just barely ahead of them. Mike Moustakis with the power, the park, the lineup is a tick above that. So he might be a little bit underpriced even though his ADP is as high as it's been probably in a few years now. Yeah, yeah.

And again, like i was saying earlier batting average is a stat that we all have to to do and i think actually the shallower your league is the more you should pay attention to batting average because it's the most volatile yes but it's also the easiest to lose track of and you know when i when i draft for al only in labor i don't think about batting average a lot because the batting average in that league is like 240. And I feel like I'm drafting mostly guys who can hit 240. But I will admit, I'm not usually a league leader in batting average because I don't go by someone like Jeff McNeil for batting average. I think that's a viable strategy for mono leagues.

But when you're talking about mixed leagues, 12 team, 10 team, you want to have batting average because it's going to be a high batting average in that league. So McNeil becomes a little bit more viable in those leagues. And I did find his infield stats out above average, which is interesting in two ways, 41 out of 188. So a positive on the infield and this is even more interesting very good going to his front and left and not as good going to his right so it's possible the Mets saw that you put him on first you put him on third base you have a line helping you to your right and maybe he works a little bit closer to the line than other people. Should be a good third baseman. And better than J.D. Davis is what I'm guessing.

That's the thing, too. If they were to platoon, J.D. Davis is on the small side of the platoons. I think Davis, as we talked about earlier this week, he's the guy that really is getting squeezed right now with the way they're built. And if Jed Lowry is healthy enough to do something, he's a pretty competent bench guy to have that you can play at multiple spots. And switch hitter. Switch hits.

I mean, I know Robinson Cano is 100 years old, and he was hurt a lot last year. So maybe that opens up some time at second base. But they've got like one extra infielder and one extra outfielder who could play a lot. Benches are deeper. It's good for them from a real life standpoint. I mean, this is how teams need to be built. Yeah, that's what a contending team needs to have, but it's kind of a fair question we should be asking about a lot of players

that aren't quite locked in as just everyday stars. Are they vulnerable to losing some playing time? And I think McNeil is just the beginning of where that kind of creeps into the conversation for me. After the first five rounds or so, you start to have those questions pop up for a lot of players. And it's definitely a question for someone like Gavin Lux. I mean, I keep wondering, is Gavin Lux going to play enough given the makeup of the Dodgers roster right now? The jock trade not happening and all that. I think Gavin Lux is an amazing player

great plate skills has power has speed probably gets buried in the bottom third of the order but if he ends up playing every day against righties and sometimes against lefties he's actually a steal where he's going in drafts but the is the downside with gavin lux playing time wise that the dodgers have the luxury of giving him the Kyle Tucker treatment and burying him at AAA for a good chunk of the year? I mean, I hope I'm not overlooking that because of how much I like him as a player. You started the clock. We just talked about how contending teams are built with extras, withency plans baked in i think you i think you go to battle with him at that price you can be wrong about a player like you can miss

in the 150 range and live to win the league and the payoff can be so big that it's a league winning pick yeah people are gonna say well you're skeptical of luis robert like yeah i i am at the price i think the skills make a ton of sense if he's a you're skeptical of louise robert like yeah i i am at the price i think the skills make a ton of sense if he's a few rounds cheaper and and if robert and lux were the same price way way later in the draft i'd still take robert but i'm not i'm not taking robert and like all those rounds right i mean we're talking about a potential fourth rounder and robert versus a likely ninth or tenth rounder in Lux. That's a big difference in price.

So who's most likely to get hurt? There's an interesting idea. Like, what if Corey Seager gets hurt and Lux is playing short? That could happen. Because if that did happen, he's their best option. Offensively, at least. On or near the big league roster to play that spot. I mean, Chris Taylor can play it, but I think they'd rather Taylor was a backup.

Yeah, I think they like moving him around, starting him against lefties, occasionally giving him a start against righties when... Right now, the person really on the outside looking in is AJ Pollock. And that doesn't add up to me either. I've described him as a potential old, boring, league-winning player on a show recently. Yeah.

And I think people would push back on it because of the playing time. Maybe rightfully so. But we're one offseason removed from the Dodgers actually giving him a lot of money. I think I've been wrong trying to look through the lens of a team and use the contract they gave to a player as a means for determining how much they like them. Sometimes you just have enough debt. They didn't have Mookie Betts when they signed AJ Pollock. So that changes everything, right?

And maybe the money just doesn't matter. Maybe they don't care. They have him. Well, they obviously do care about the money. They tried to trade away Jock Peterson. They were going pay pay a prospect to do it right but does that mean they were they were doing it also because they want to play aj pollock more or because they trust that they can play aj pollock more like he's he's a good player

here's a let's let me add up the money real quick there's a there was a blog called it's all about the money stupid uh about the yankees. It was a good blog. And it is all about the money. So let's see here. Stripling, $2.1 million. And Peterson, $7.8 million, although it could have been $8 plus at the time. So between the two of them, you almost get $10 million off. Their estimated payroll is 236 million.

If you cut it to 226 million, you're still above the cap. So maybe they say, all right, screw it. The angels won't help us, you know, cut what would be around 20 million. Actually, if you cut 10 million, when you're above the cap, there's almost like a, you know, uh, that much of a tax, you know, where it's 10, 15 $15, $20 million that you're actually cutting. So if the Angels won't help us cut that money, then let's just go to war. This is our year. We have Mookie Betts. I keep looking at that Pollock situation and thinking, okay, if everything holds up the way it is right now, I think what would happen, this is my best guess anyway, with everyone healthy,

Bellinger would move in and play first base. Muncy would move from first to second, and Lux would potentially go down because you want him to play every day. Like, that's not out of the question, is it? With everybody currently in tow? A trade could make this move. One trade of one lefty platoon guy peterson or muncie i don't think they're trading muncie because they just extended him right so

that's that's not going to happen but if if peterson's there to begin the season one of peterson or bellinger has to play some at first base unless aj pollock is only going to be a small side platoon guy and i just have a hard time believing that in year two of that deal that they look at him only as a small side platoon guy already especially since injury contributed so much to to what happened before and not not as much poor play um you know what's amazing i think they might also just go in with all this money because they lose next year. At the end of this year, they lose $20, $30, $34, $50, $61, $70, $76, $80. $80 million comes off of their payroll. That's a lot of money. Even in baseball salary terms, that's a lot of money coming off.

That's enough to re-sign Mookie Betts to a Trouty and $35-$40 million deal and still have money left. And the people they're losing, other than Justin Turner, are more role-type players. Enrique Hernandez, Jock Peterson, Pedro Baez. peterson pedro baez uh you know so it's enough to to sign mookie bats and replace your third baseman even though you don't necessarily need to because you could just put muncie over there and lux plays you know yeah or you could move seager from short to third and play lux at short exactly lux at third like they got plenty of ways to replace turner after the season anyway so that that was the the thought process for me with gavin lux definitely some risks risk there yeah based on based on the depth chart yeah he could get

squeezed even though i'm strongly considering drafting him in that range so it's still still more work to be done i treat him as more of a prospect than maybe some people are treating him but one of those prospects that you know, will play this year. I mean, no matter what he'll play this year, even if he goes down at first, he'll come up in the first injury and stuff, you know? So I would treat him as like a premium top three type prospect that you know, is going to play this year. But I think if you do draft him in a mixed league with limited bench spots, especially, you're probably not going to have the luxury of taking as many late flyers on

other guys who aren't playing right away. Second base has some multi-eligibility guys where you could take a decent multi-eligibility guy that might play for you all over. But it's also sort of, maybe you're starting second baseman if Lux goes down. So just off the top of my head, Arias, Kevin Newman, Nico Goodrum, Tommy Edmund, Michael Chavis. You know, there's some guys, David Fletcher, depending on how deep your league is, there's some guys that play second base that also play other places. So you could be like, that could be a strategy. Like I'm going to buy locks and I'm going to hedge my

bets with arise. Yeah. I think the weasel rise is interesting because there could be more power there. It's probably a topic we've touched on at least once on this show. I think there are a lot of similarities in his profile to Jeff McNeil. We we just talked about, where there's a lot of hit tool presently, and developing the power, generating the loft, is something that he should be capable of doing. And if that happens, maybe 15, 18 home runs in a normal year with a normal ball are within play or in play for him. And cheap batting average is hard to find.

You know you're going to get batting average. He's got second base pretty much to himself at this point as well. So I do like Luis Urias as a pretty late, even in mixed leagues, late round pick that you could throw in there and move him around a little bit as needed. We kind of jumped over Kevin Biggio and Tommy Edmund. And Biggio, I'm still skeptical. I've been skeptical all along. I know why people like him in OBP leagues the floor is a bit higher because I think the walk rates the very good walk rates are a real skill 16 homers in 100 games last year 14 for 14 is a base dealer only a 25.4 percent ground ball rate it's an improving lineup around him I know you were kind of out on biggio when we

talked about him back in the fall has anything changed for you with him especially when you consider that he's going ahead of lux he's going right around the same range as edmund in that pick 130 to 135 range right now actually there i'm totally in on him and i and i like him i was worried the last time we talked about him that there was so much helium fed into his candidacy by people like us. There was a lot of pro-BGO talk, and I was worried that we would inflate him a la Nick Pavetta or whoever,

players where we've all agreed we like him, and then the price suddenly inflates so far that you know some of the analysts are like whoa you know like what have we created here i'm out on him at that price at the price where you know if you're putting off against edmund and rise and people like that like yo do it the one thing that's really good about him is he definitely optimizes his uh his launch angle like he doesn't hit pop-ups and he doesn't hit ground balls so he's hitting in the right angles um he doesn't necessarily hit the ball as hard as other as other people you know that

are stars at at um at that skill of sort of optimizing their launch angle. But, you know, at an 89-mile-an-hour exit velocity, 40% hard hit, like, you know, he's 9% barrel rate. Like, you know, everything's pretty good except for the strikeout rate. So, you know, if I can swallow a 230 batting average on my team, you know, I think he can definitely hit 25 homers and steal 15 to 20 bases. So a 230, like Zips has him for a 222 batting average. So you just have to keep that in your mind that it's not all gravy,

like I'm getting a 20-20 guy who I can just plug in. It means I have to maybe pick someone else to pair with him. I think the key, yeah, it's kind of like a Gallo sort of situation. Just with a more balanced Roto skill set where you're getting some power and some speed. And I think what makes players like Gallo and Biggio, even though they're very different, what makes them viable compared to other low-average guys is just how much they walk.

Because in reality, the way their playing time is fortified is their ability to get on base is a big part of that. If they were 5% walk rate guys, they'd be extremely dangerous, of course, right? But because they walk like 15% of the time, they can have prominent spots in the lineup, even though they're a drain in one of our rotisserie categories. They can pile up a lot of runs.

They can drive in a lot of runs. And then they could, in the case of Gallo, hit 40-plus homers. In the case of Biggio, yeah, maybe 20-20 is actually in play. Compared to Tommy Edmond, I like Biggio a lot more because I feel a lot better about his playing time situation with the Jays. Yeah, I think Biggio is part of the core there. You know, he's considered, and the team, the way the team is right now on the wind curve, they're like, we want to establish the core, you know, and we think Biggio is part of it. I don't know if Lourdes Gurriel qualifies at second, but I think there's some outside shot that he's part of that core too.

They're going to play those guys as much as they're healthy and they're ready to go. Edmund, in some ways, has demonstrated the skill set in the minor leagues of a utility guy. or has demonstrated a skill set in the minor leagues of a utility guy. He never had, you know, above A ball, he had basically one year was an 80 WRC plus, and then three straight years of a 108 WRC plus, or two straight. So, you know, 108 in the high minors does not usually create an everyday player with the bat. So I think there was a little bit of found money with him last year. And right now, he looks okay because the Cardinals didn't really spend any money on an outfielder.

And so it's Edmund, O'Neal, Bader, and Fowler. I like Bader. We've talked about Bader. Because of his defense, he's going to get more chances to play. He might get stuck in the bottom third of the order again, but he's a good enough defender where he keeps getting run. That carries his playing time. I'm 100% with you on Dylan Carlson.

I think left field is his job maybe by the end of april i don't think it's gonna take that long i think this is the risk of edmund that we're we're circling around i think this is it let's go let's go for the kill at the end of the year the outfield is going to be bader carlson and one of sort of maybe a platoon of fowler o'neill None of those names is Edmund. Right. And then you go around the infield, Goldschmidt's going to soak up all the playing time at first base. Matt Carpenter. What I've gotten, the sense I've asked around him on Matt Carpenter, the sense I've gotten is he gets a month. Okay. So he's kind of in 2019 Brian Dozier territory. Yes. that's the opportunity for Edmund,

is that he plays early in left field and late at third base. And it's not like, I mean, Nolan Gorman's not ready to come up, so they can't go prospect at third base. He's at least a year away, if not longer. So Edmund at third base, okay, that's possible. They brought in Brad Miller. Yairo Munoz is there. Bad defense.

I'm down on the Cardinals this year. It's not just because I root for a different team in that division. I look at that core, and I'm like, man, they're getting old, and they're pitching. They're starting rotation in particular. It's not looking good. I don't understand how last year I called them to win the division. They won the division, and now I look at at them and I'm like, third at best.

How did that happen? The Reds got a lot better. And the Cubs are the same team they were. The Cardinals didn't do anything. Right, they just lost to Ozuna. That was it. They didn't do anything. And everyone just got a year older.

And I don't believe in Dakota Hudson. Adam Wainwright is old as dirt. Carlos Martinez is coming off an injury. Miles Miklas is injured right now. Kim is a total unknown. You know, basically just a slider. I thought he was coming over to relieve. You know, I do like getting some shares of Ponce de Leon.

I think he's going to make like 15 starts at least for this team. It may be more of a deep league situation, but deep league. And then in the bullpen,pen yes the bullpen is pretty good brebbia is good gant's good gaius is good miller's still pretty good um and there's the name to click down there is helsley who throws a hundred and and may take um the closing job until hicks comes back or maybe even all year if if they want a baby hicks so um that's that's. That's a pick to click. We need a... You want like a pen clicking sound? Oh, you want Kermit typing.

Yeah. That's probably a top five gift for me. I love Kermit. Anyway, Edmund. Okay, so I would say there's like a 60% chance that Edmund cobbles together 600 plate appearances and gets 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases with a decent average. It could work, but there's other players in that range. That ceiling's not that great after I said it, right? No, no, it's a limited ceiling and the floor could drop out with playing time. His versatility helps for sure, but that thing you said at the beginning, the 8% better than league average multiple years in the minors, that doesn't generally lead you to a player that you want to have in the first 10 rounds of your fantasy league it just doesn't unless he runs a ton if he becomes like a 30 steel guy or something then you know that changes completely but i just

don't think that's going to happen let's throw a name out there that has multi-position eligibility maybe some depth chart risk uh and is not really being bandied around as like a as a as a good player this year, Michael Chavis. His AA and AAA WRC+, 114, 151, 132, 128. That's the kind of player where you think, well, you know. And also, he's battling Jose Peraza, who is the definition of a backup. So I tend to think that Chavis is going to settle in at second base and take that job, but they're talking about him playing outfield and playing first base, whatever it is. I don't really care. To me, he's the second baseman by the end of the year. If he makes any improvement in his strikeout rate, which his minor league track record says he could, and I think he can with just in terms of plate discipline, learning what pitchers are trying to do to him,

then I think he can hit 250 with 30 homers. That'd be really nice at that price. It's a different skill set than Edmund, but it's probably worth more. Oh, man. Edmund, you see that 15 for 16 in steals, and you just want to see more there. I think there's... He reminds me of the guy you mentioned, though, in passing there. He reminds me of Jose Peraza.

Jose Peraza's ADP went through the roof a couple years ago once he had a job to call his own. He got inside the top 100, and it just didn't work out. I think that's more like the skill set that Tommy Edmund has. And this year, if I'm looking at those guys and I think they're similar, and I can get Jose Peraza at pick 300 as a middle infield dart throw who can also play in the outfield for me i think that's where i want to throw that cheap speed dart and i'll find someone either at second base or some other position where everyone's drafting edmund who i feel a lot better about in terms of role and skills yeah parraza had that one shining year 683 plate appearances 14 homers 23

stolen bases for a one shining year that's not the shiniest 96 wrc plus let me say i gotta ask you about brandon lau real quick that's right it's always gonna throw me uh just inside the top 200 we talked about the rays having so many options to mix and match is he kind of part of that is he a big side platoon guy like he had a high strikeout rate last year big power like does it all come together for him or is he vulnerable to losing some time as well he's a stack ass darling man uh he had ungodly barrel rate here 16.3% barrel rate. That's amazing. Really good exit velocity. Really good launch angle. I get some vibes, some sort of Calvin Biggio vibes where, you know, the strikeout rate is a problem.

But he's optimizing his batted balls and making the most out of them. I think he's fine. I know he was basically hurt, right? Yeah, he lost a bunch of time with that injury yeah 2016 449 plays princess abel that's probably maxing out that's probably a full season right there 2017 468 plate appearances 2018 445 oh plus 148 with the the braids so in 2018 he had almost six yeah at 600 uh plate appearance, I think he can do that. He's not an injury-prone guy.

It's a little bit worrisome it took so long to come back from a quad injury. Yeah, it may have been pretty significant, like a 2 or 3 in terms of the severity grade. I look at that strikeout rate from him, 34.6%. That could come down. I don't know if he's ever going to be a guy that's under 25%, but if he is optimally barreling up balls when he connects,

draws some walks, can run a little, 5 for 5 as a base dealer, around pick 200, that might be a risk worth taking. Yeah. Let me see here. I'm trying to find him on this list. Because he's kind of in the Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson list,

a chunk of the list. That's where those guys go, and they're battling each other, and Lowe's going to play more than those two guys. Who's really a second baseman on that squad? I don't think you want Wendell playing. Wendell is a backup. No, I think it's actually one of those positions where for all the mixing and matching,

that's mostly first, third, and the outfield, and obviously the DH spot. Where they put their bad defenders. Yeah, but I think up the middle, they care. And right, third, first, and DH. And where their good defenders are, Meadows is going to play. Adamas is going to play.

And I think Lowe is going to play. Yes, there's some interesting thing going on with Kiermaier and Margot, but what are you going to do? I think... Of the righties they have who can play in the infield, who's actually going to be good enough to where you would take Brandon Lau out of the lineup? I don't think Daniel Robertson's that guy.

Brasso? Would you play Mike Brasso against lefties instead? I mean, I don't think they can do it every day. Every lefty. Like, maybe sometimes. Brasso was 8% better than the league average, and a lot of it was against lefties, and there's some things I like about him.

He's 25, so he's right at his peak, and that's kind of the thing the Rays do. So maybe he'll play some, but I don't think you have the personnel, even with the extra man, to platoon at second, third, center, and first DH. Can you do it?

I guess you could. It'd be five if they added second base to it, right? If it's first, third, DH in the two corners, in the outfield, that's five spots. Well, Meadows is not platooning, so it's center. First, third, DH, and the two corners in the outfield, that's five spots. Well, Meadows is not a platoon. So it's center. First, third, center, DH. That's four.

Yeah, it's five if you add second. And that's actually the problem. You can't. That's going to be. That's the problem. Because four you can do. Because you're going to have four bench people in the AL. And if you have four bench people,

that means you. I think the Rays are planning to basically have four bench people that play a lot. All right, let's try this for these last handful of players that we should at least mention. Who do we like? I'll fire off a name. You let me know if you like them at their price, because they're all after pick 200. Rugden Odor, who seems to be on notice in Texas. 223 is the ADP.

No, I don't like it because I'm really worried about the new Park Sapping's power and that's a big part of what he does. The defense is not good and Solak could take over that job, even though Solak's playing in center, I know, but I think there's a collapse. I think there's a lot of collapse there. I may like him super late in some leagues,

but I don't think I'd want to depend on him as my starting second baseman. How about some cheap speed from Colton Wong at 228? I'll dig on it. Yeah, I kind of like him too. Michael Chavis, you're in on. You mentioned him before, first and second base eligibility. Luis Arias, we mentioned him.

He's at 238. That's a fair price. The power needs to come along a little bit. I'll take Arias over Goodrum. Yeah, I'm with you there. That's about a 40-pick gap in ADP between those two guys. I think that's accurate. How about this this one how about nick madrigal he's a really odd sort of player how does he translate in year one how quickly do you think he's up because i've been expecting him to

get the call as soon as they secure that extra year of service time man i had a major league hitting coach text me that they're gonna to knock the bat out of his hands. That's what I thought based on some of the spray charts I've looked at. And obviously he's small. We know that. And I mean, like the downside is what, like a Nicky Lopez

like plays a lot, buried in the order, just no slug, lots of contact, runs a bit. So if he's getting on base i think the downside is a rise ish not a bad floor actually because magical will steal more than arise so like i think i would rather like especially if i don't like let's say i i had a standard draft where i feel good about all my starters. I'd rather have Madrigal on my bench than Arise. If I don't feel good about my second base situation, I might rather have Madrigal than Arise.

The only way that I'd rather have Arise than Madrigal is if I feel really good and it's head to head and I just want Arise to plug and play for batting average everywhere. I think Arise has a higher floor. Arias' floor is a good batting average with not much power, not much speed, but plays a lot. Madrigal's floor is back in the minors. Yeah, they could send him down. That's a possibility. Yeah, if the team is winning some games,

but Madrigal is struggling, he's just not hitting for power and you know his walk rates don't suggest he's necessarily going to walk his way uh and get on base on walks um so it's all based on putting the ball in play uh and if if the if teams just have a scouting port you know teams are better from the beginning now too where they're not like who's this guy i'll just you know you know now they're like oh nick madrigal i'm gonna fill up the zone on this guy all he's gonna do is hit a single off me i mean that's like billy hamilton-esque that scouting report if it's if that's what they think like well the one thing about hamilton is he misses

the ball too that that's true yeah i mean if you're just hitting little dribblers, you could still get on base. The ceiling for Madrigal is McNeil with more steals. That's an exciting player. I think that's 90th percentile. It could take a little time to get there, too. I mean, dude, Madrigal hit four homers across all the levels. He played five levels or whatever and he had four homers in like 700 play appearances do you expect him to be like bottom of the league like

fifth percentile or lower in average exit velocity yeah oh you know what we should look at who let's see who that is billy ham's the lowest, but Billy Hamilton... Yes, you should take Bunce out and yeah, yeah, yeah, blah, blah, blah. But Billy Hamilton also misses the ball. Richie Martin is down here. Victor Robles is down here. Yes, there are a bunch of bunchers down here. Ender Inciarte makes more contact.

But all these guys have lost their jobs other than Victor Robles, right? Yeah. Wilmer Dyfo lost his job. Mike Freeman, backup. Jared Dyson, now a starter. Cheap speed comes with a price, as we've talked about many, many times before. Oh, God. Yes.

Will you pay the price? Let's see. We talked about Starling Castro, I think, briefly at the end of the last episode. At the price, he's going to play a lot. He's in a good lineup. I think he makes sense as a filler. Sneaky upgrade in the park situation. Yeah.

I think that's offsetting and then some to the drop in the lineup. I think he probably hits about sixth for the Nats after hitting mostly cleanup for the Marlins or third for the Marlins. Goodrum is probably trending down eventually. The playing time is going to start to dry up sooner rather than later. I'm worried about that, yeah. Not really on him. Tommy LaStella, I like him better than Fletcher. I think that came up earlier in the week.

280 is a pick on him. I like that. Cesar Hernandez, that's a lot of playing time, potentially, in Cleveland. Gets on base. Maybe has a chance to sneak into the leadoff spot. What do you think about him? They don't really. There's no threat.

I mean, as much as, like, you know, Tyler Freeman is an interesting prospect coming up with them. I think he played an A ball last year. Christian Arroyo is... If Christian Arroyo hits... Let me see here. I'm going to look for his 90th percentile projection. This is fun.

This is a fun thing that the Axe does. The Axe is Baseball Perspectives' fantasy auction calculator and um uh you can actually change the percentiles uh within the uh within the the system so chris on the bat for a 12 team league has league, has a minus $32 projection. That might be a record in terms of things I've seen, at least. Yeah, but if you put him, if you plug in his 99th percentile projection, he is worth minus $24.

Oh, okay. That has him hitting 314 with eight homers. But honestly, I don't know if that really understands it completely. Because if he hits 314 with eight homer-type power in 126 ABs, then he might take the starting job. Yeah, I guess I'm still not really worried about that happening so yeah cesar hernandez kind of old kind of boring but kind of a nice value i think he's a great uh monolingue player yes optimally used there but a decent like cheap speed play in a 15 team mixer at least yeah he's like a uh whoops i forgot about the position player in in mixed leagues and a uh kind of cool maybe like eight dollar um you know i got

production type player uh in mono leagues yeah i i'll buy that assessment i mean the speed in a normal year 15 to 19 steals each of the last four seasons before 2019 dropped down to nine steals. Gets on base. 253 is the low and four-year average career 277 guy. It's like that's the downside Whit Merrifield projection with a little less batting average. That's why I'm staying away from Whit Merrifield in the early rounds, I think. Again, 20 points in batting average

is significant. 25 points could be, but still, yikes. Okay, so there's more interesting guys, and we'll run through these kind of quickly, too. It kind of opens up super late. Dee Gordon for cheap speed? I'm not sure I'm doing that in a mixed league.

Look at Jonathan Scope and Jerks and Profar, just for guys that are going to play a lot as their primary second baseman on their respective teams. ADP is around 380 for those two guys. Any interest in either of them? I think that Profar is kind of like the NL's version of Cesar Hernandez. Likely to play, not likely to play well enough. Well, he may be a little bit better than Cesar Hernandez.

I mean, the projection is better. 240 with 18 homers and 8 stolen bases. Maybe he's a little bit better than Cesar Hernandez, but still kind of like late in the draft, A, I just need a second baseman, or like a good kind of steady monolith guy. Yeah, I don't like him for shallow mixed leagues. I don't see the same type of ceiling

that we might have projected on him when he was the top overall prospect. Yeah, he's just not that guy, but they're going to play him a lot. Shoulder injury, man. He had a shoulder injury, and he came back from it a little bit, but I don't think that his upside...

He had some great power years in the minors that have just never come to bear, and I think that's kind of it. After that, Luis Urias, pick 400, has the hamate surgery. Could miss opening day, but he's cheap. I like him as a deep mixed-league filler. I think he's going to be a key part of that offense this year. Their overall team projection hinges a lot on a guy like that really kind of stepping up and proving to be an upgrade

to help offset the loss of both Grandal and Moustakis. But a ton of hit tool, and now he moves into a much more hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee. Yes, but I think in the hamate bone, this is an interesting thing. We used to say, the research said on hamate bones that if you, because Luis has the hamate bone, this is an interesting thing. We used to say the research said on hamate bones that if you – because Luis has the hamate bone injury. We used to say that's sap power. But the more we look into it, the more it doesn't seem like it's sap power very much.

The evidence was not conclusive to begin with. And just from talking to players who've had it, they said basically it's painful. And after a while, the pain goes away. So maybe, yeah, because some guys are just going to take painkillers and be fine with it. But in terms of like something mechanically stealing your power, there's nothing there. Maybe some players react to the pain differently and swing differently or don't want to swing as hard because it's painful. So there might be,

that's might be why we thought there were some sloughing off, but in today's league, you got to, you got to swing as hard as you can all the time. So I think probably either people are grinning and bearing it or staying out a little bit longer until the pain subsides and going back in. So what I don't like about this is not necessarily the hammy bone injury. It's that the hammy bone injury is taking away time for him working with Andy Haynes, is the hitting coach there in Milwaukee.

I have a lot of respect for him. And I think he needed to get a new voice, land somewhere, feel good all spring, and then take off during the year. Now he's going to have to do that at a later time. I still think that within him is 280 and 2010 type upside. Sorry. Especially since I defined exactly what I meant. Yes. It's perfectly fine to use the word upside if you elaborate on what exactly you're referring to. I don't just hate the word in a vacuum. I just want people to explain what they mean and you did that yeah um maybe 20

and 5 but i like definitely has the hit tool to hit 280 and he's shown the ability to hit for power so i'm kind of splitting the difference there with the 20 um but uh i think that was a it was a decent pickup for them especially with their need because our ceo is just not i think a major league starting shortstop yeah unfortunately just doesn't hit quite enough. Last question for this episode. Second base in Oakland. Who wins the job? Is there one player who can take that job and run with it between Franklin Barreto, Sheldon Noisy, Jorge Mateo could kind of be an option there.

I think he can play in the outfield a little bit too. Do you have anyone you're throwing that very late dart on? Because none of those guys cost really anything in drafts right now. So they need a backup shortstop. So that is something that will keep Barreto and Mateo in the conversation. The team does not seem to like Barreto as much as prospects or fans, prospect hunters or fans, those types. So I could see it not being Barreto as a starter,

but Barreto making the team as the backup shortstop and the platoon second baseman. And then I think the dark horse is Tony Kemp to be the starter there as the left-hander that they've even talked about maybe starting, who showed some per-at-bat power last

year that he hadn't shown in the past, career-high ISO. So, you know, I think they could see something that looks a lot like Jerickson Profar, a little bit skewed maybe towards speed and defense rather than power, starting there. Barreto makes the team as the backup shortstop and platoon second baseman. How many more spots do you have left on this team? We even talked about having four bench spots. So Barreto's one. Grossman, Robbie Grossman, is signed to a major league deal,

so he's probably one of the other ones. Chad Pinder is kind of the veteran all-around guy so that's three and uh austin allen is the backup catcher oh we forgot about backup catcher when we were talking about the race yeah that's true we did so that makes it even harder i mean there's probably a trade coming for the race still or a surprise dfa or you know something there usually is so mateo is uh is a trade option uh in the a's have lost people in the past too mateo and bretto both out of options at this point so they kind of have to make the team but the a's have pushed this sort of team control thing so far that they've lost people like Renato Nunez in the past.

And I could see that almost happening with Mateo. You know, he just seems kind of the odd man out unless the, unless they, unless he plays really well in spring and they just, they just DFA Grossman. If he plays somewhere, Jorge Mateo,

obviously a nice cheap speed play. I think that's a carrying tool when it comes to his offensive profile. All right, that's going to wrap things up for this long breakdown of the second base position. We went very long on this episode. With a couple depth charts to boot. Yes, indeed. And you can reach us via email, ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com, if you have any questions for us to get to in future episodes.

Mailbags piling up. We're trying to answer those questions, at least on the side, if we're not getting them on air, we have two other fantasy baseball podcasts running this season here at the athletic fantasy baseball and 15 every morning with Al Melkier, Michael Beller and myself, and then the athletic fantasy baseball podcast with new episodes,

Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays opposite this show. We are back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening.