Rates & Barrels - Shohei Ohtani Meets with the Media, Spring Job Battle Winners, Injury News & 'Our Guys' for 2024

Episode Date: March 26, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the latest in the story involving Shohei Ohtani and his former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, before catching up on a lot of other news around baseball including job battles that have been decided, late spring injuries wreaking havoc on depth charts, and the subsequent opportunities that have opened up. They wrap up the episode with a quick look at some of their most heavily-rostered players as the rest of the league approaches Opening Day on Thursday.  Rundown 1:37 Shohei Ohtani Speaks About Ippei Mizuhara's Gambling Debts 15:20 Ezequiel Tovar Signs Extension with Rockies 24:20 Injury Follow-Ups: Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Kevin Gausman & Eury Pérez 30:20 Luis Gil, Jared Jones and Max Meyer Get Early-Season Opportunities 38:46 Paul Sewald Heads to IL w/Oblique Strain 47:03 Jackson Holliday Misses Opening Day Roster 52:48 Dylan Carlson's Shoulder Injury Creating Path for Victor Scott II? 56:17 J.D. Martinez's Fit with the Mets 59:38 Our Most Heavily-Rostered Players for 2024 Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes w/Trevor May! (next live show: 3/29) https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Nate Taylor and I cover the Kansas City Chiefs for the Athletic. I love locker rooms after games. When I walk in that locker room, I have the eyes and ears of our subscribers. As a journalist, it's my duty to ask the hard questions and to get some true honesty from athletes and coaches. It's a real joy to cover football, to be a hunter and a gatherer of news, to get something that's revealing that you may not be able to see on television. I'm from Kansas City, so I've watched this team

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The Athletic is now included along with everything the New York Times has to offer when you subscribe to the New York Times. You can find out more at nytimes.com slash athletic. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Tuesday, March 26. Derek Van Riper, Inosaris. We are back in our respective home recording locations. Feels good to have gotten out and get those two live shows in. Thanks again to our friends at Other Half Brewing

for being fantastic hosts. And thanks to everybody who made it out live. It was great to put some faces to Twitter handles, and more specifically, Discord handles, right? I got to meet market8dude, whose name is not actually Mark. Yeah. Yeah, that was a, that was fun. Some of our most ardent listeners, um, and people we interact with the most on

Twitter and, and discord were there. So it was really great to see everybody. It was really fun. And other half did such a great job. It was a, it was a perfect little spot for us and, um, and stack lineup is still out there. So if you want to order it at other half brewing.com, uh, you can, uh, you can still get that shipped to a bunch of different States.

So, uh, it was really great beer, really great time, really great to see everybody. Yeah. I kind of locked in on stacked lineup. I didn't try enough of the other beers at other half. That was a bit of a mistake on my part, but, uh, we'll be corrected in a future opportunity traveling to New York. As I mentioned, the Discord, it is popping. Get in there if you haven't already. We'll have a link to join that in the show description. Since we last recorded

on Thursday, a ton of news has broken and one story that was pretty fresh last Thursday has developed a good bit. I would say it's still in the developing category. That, of course, is Shohei Otani and Ipe Mizuhara, his former translator, who has now been fired by the Dodgers after being linked to illegal gambling in California. Shohei met with the media on Monday afternoon, you know, and he said he was saddened and shocked by the revelations that his former interpreter had racked up a sizable gambling debt. Reports have that as about four and a half million dollars. That's still the number that's floating around out there.

And Otani said he learned about this problem for Mizuhara after the first game the Dodgers played with the Padres in Korea last week. So this is really interesting. This originally kind of bubbled up from a Los Angeles Times report that pointed out that Otani's name had appeared on wire transfers to alleged bookmaker Matthew Boyer. Boyer is under federal investigation. And then Mizuhara had claimed the transfers covered his debts. Major League Baseball on Friday after a few days announced they are investigating.

So, you know, we'll see what they find beyond whatever the federal investigation turns up. And the biggest thing for me is that kind of like read through some of the details that have been reported. It's just that there were there was some inconsistencies in the stories. Initially, there was a 90 minute interview that ESPN had with Mizuhara, and that interview was attended by an Otani spokesperson. Right. So that detailed how Mizuhara met Boyer at a poker game in San Diego back in 2021.

Apparently, Boyer was invited to this game by an acquaintance of David Fletcher's. The details are super clear in that interview. And then, of course, the details from that interview were later recanted. And some of this is being now kind of attributed to throughout this last week. Prior to being fired, Mizuhara still being Otani's translator and that creating a lot of confusion about what Otani did and did not know at various points. Yeah. The interaction between a player and a translator is,

um, just really intimate. Actually, I mean, this person is, uh, broadcasting your views to the world for you, you know, and, and, and translating the world for you, you know, on the way back. And then we know we have established that their interaction was even more intimate, maybe than normal translators, like just in terms of like, you know, they were friends, they were buds, they went everywhere together. Like, you know, they were seen everywhere together. Like, you know, you know, so, you know, does he have access to his accounts?

I, you know, this translation thing is kind of intriguing to the point where yesterday, you know, I have a, I have a friend who's a more of a native Japanese speaker or better Japanese speaker than I am. And he watched that same press conference yesterday that Otani gave in which he ostensibly gave us more details. And but it was a prepared statement. But again, there's a translator there is a new translator. And he's, he's, my friend said he did a good job.

But he said the one specific thing there was an interesting way of translating. So my friend said that sort of Otani says specifically, Ipei accessed my account on his own and transferred money out in Japanese. And that was translated to Ipei stole my money or stole money. So that's, that's, it's, that's just part of the story with that, that like, nah, when did Otani know what he knew? How much English does he understand? And how much does he, how much do you understand about this?

Like you could see a play away, a story of this guy who's just wants to be about, he's from the country in Japan.'s just wants to be about, um, he's from the country in Japan. He just wants to be about baseball. His mom, you know, handled his finances and first, you know, until just a couple of years ago, um, you know, all he wants to do is care about baseball, maybe like who, who knows how much, how good his English is and how much he's understanding of this.

And he's got this guy who's an established liar or who's, who's at least admitted to lying on certain levels and has a gambling problem, who's his translator. So he could say anything that other people were saying to Otani and then change whatever Otani's saying back. Right? So, Oh yeah. Otani covered my debts. He wasn't happy with it, but he did it, you know?

Whereas Otani thinks he's saying, Oh yes, I paid for something that, um, that he had that he bought him a house or whatever it was, you know what I mean? Like, like maybe he knew about the payments, but didn't know exactly what they're for. I mean, just because that translating offers this like gray area, we just don't know. Uh, there's another story where, you know, Otani is in a veteran gambler and he's, he cannot lose. He's one of these players.

I think the one thing that I know about players is they hate losing more than they almost like winning. And, you know, they are competitive about Tiddlywinks and ask, ask about Walker Bueller and ping pong. You know what I mean? Like it's, it's, it's, uh, they're intensely competitive. So the other story is, you know, here's a guy who's intensely competitive and private and has some time to kill when he's not doing baseball things. And, you know, was gambling and, you know, got into trouble and blamed

on his, on his translator. So, uh, the, the thing is that this is all put against a player who's probably the most inaccessible player we've had in a long time. And so, you know, I feel badly for all the reporters trying to chase this because it's, uh, it's, there's, there's very few in ways with the player himself because of maybe the language again and translating. But also just the way that he's insulated himself from the media. And then so you're trying to go to all these people around him who were saying,

I thought he was a good guy. I don't know. So it's a really difficult story for everybody involved. And we on the outside here, everybody involved. Um, and we on the outside here, and it, like, it inspires a lot of people, um, to, uh, be very sure of, uh, of their beliefs in a lot of these instances. Oh, a bookie would never put out a $4.5 million, um, credit line. That seems like a lot, but it wasn't 4.5 million. It was 500,000 over and over again, or at least that's how the payments came in. You know? Uh, would he ever do that for someone least that's how the payments came in, you know.

Would he ever do that for someone who obviously wasn't worth it? I don't know. I mean, you're asking, you're talking about an illegal bookie. Well, and that's where the initial, the initial account from Mizuhara and explaining how he met Boyer, like kind of, oh, okay, like you, you got introduced to each other because of who you each know. Yeah. These are probably a mark for him right away. That guy, that guy smelled you coming a while, a mile away. Right.

So there it's just one of these stories. Like there's, there's the first thing you think is like, what do you want to believe? Well, we all probably, many of us want to believe that show you, Tony is an amazing baseball player who loves baseball and would never be involved in anything illegal like this. That's the thing you kind of want to believe. That's like a fairy tale that you want to tell yourself. That's what you sort of hope comes out in all of the investigation in all of this. That's the thing that you generally want to see.

But you also have probably lived long enough to see and hear of enough famous people being involved in bad things to think, you know, maybe it's not just the pay like you, your mind wonders. Like, isn't, isn't Michael Jordan just like a, like Charles Barkley didn't charge the box that like lose millions of dollars. Right. But also there's aside from just the legal ramifications of well, gambling is not legal in the state of California.

Okay, like if that were a thing that any player did, I'm not talking about Shohei specifically, but let's just say an athlete of any kind, any sport, wherever, they bet on sports in California. And it's a lot of money and it's illegal. Okay, like am I crushed by that as a fan? No, I don't actually care if the player is not harming other people, right? It's a little bit like smoking pot. Smoking pot is legal in some cities and not legal in others.

It's like if somebody got busted in one of the states where it wasn't legal, you'd be like, well, you know, maybe thought he was in California. He woke up and whatever it is. I don't know. It doesn't seem like that big a deal, but gambling is a little bit, a little bit different because you know, what about baseball? Right. And that's where, that's where it would cross a line. Right. And again, like that's by all accounts, not what's happening here, but yes.

Leverage over a player, you know, that owes $5 million. Well, you better do this or you got to do something for me on the field that I can bet on or whatever. Right. So there's infinite. And we have something like this in another sport, right? Right. Meanwhile, yes.

In the NBA. Yeah. In the NBA, John T Porter is being investigated because of prop bets and prop bets for the uninitiated or just like, uh, I think this guy will rebound, have seven rebounds today. And a bunch of regular bets were replaced on the under on his props. When he was in a game in which he removed himself from the game, uh, due to injury. Um, which is super fishy.

And then I guess he has, uh, all these alternate, you know, uh, Twitter accounts. There's some reporting his alternate Twitter accounts. They're related to crypto and gambling and that he has, uh, publicly admitted to gambling in those Twitter accounts on NCAA basketball. And so, you know, uh, like there's a lot, I think there's a, there's more smoke there. Uh, and that's a big deal because it's about the sport itself. Whereas we can't necessarily trust E-, but he pays always said, no baseball and, uh, you know, we also have this, like this, this illegal bookie person, the whole reason this came out.

Is because this illegal bookie person is busted. Right. And so I, it reads to me like, Oh, well, do you know Shohei Otani? Is that a, is that a good name? Does that get me, does that get me a reduction in sentence or anything? Does that get me anywhere? Um, so you don't like, it's really hard with all these characters in there. And, and, and again, we don't, we don't really know Shohei that well.

Right. But it's again, still in the developing category for me for sure. And I just try to think through all these different details. And the thing I put out there on Twitter was just like, how do you even get four and a half million dollars out of a bank account without someone knowing about it, like that would be challenging because it would take several large transfers. 500,000 at a time.

It's something like that. But I just think about how like there's so many facets of life where there are little checks on basic things we do. And I realized that ultra high net worth individuals live in a different world than the rest of us. And maybe you can transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars out of an account and not get a notification or someone who has access to your account can do that. I just think that's really bizarre. That's all. I'm not really pointing a finger or anything. I'm just like, man, that's weird. And that's maybe Otani is a classic example of someone that

trusted the wrong people. That's possible. I don't know. I just think there's missing information. I do know a fair amount of people that have gotten rich, not by handling the money themselves, you know, uh, you know, who, who inherited it or, you know, did other things to, to acquire that, that wealth. And I do know personally, some people that just have other people that disperse the money for them. They don't want to deal with it. They weren't, that's not why they, you know, it's not why they have money and they don't want to deal with it. They weren't, that's not why they, you know, it's not why they have money and,

uh, they don't want to think about it. So, you know, that's why I mentioned on Twitter the other day that his mother handled his finances and maybe he's just, that's not something he wants to think about, but then other people are professional advisors and people. Yes, yes. But it's also possible that someone that is as close as your translator can tell you that this is just a payment for the thing you owe, you know, whatever it is. Just sign on this, you know, and, uh, and don't worry about it.

Right. So for all of those reasons and many that we haven't even uncovered yet, this is a complicated story to completely unpack as far as other news news and notes, the thing that you thought we might be talking about right now, as it pertains to Shohei Otani, is that he's been cleared to start a throwing program as he returns from elbow surgery and his bid to be a two way player again, right? Like if you, if three weeks ago you said, what do you think we'll be talking about with Otani in the days before state side opening day and say, I don't know.

Rehab, you know, how his spring went, normal things like that. So good news there, at least that Otani is on that sort of progression. You know, we'll see if they actually follow through on their rumblings that they might play him in the field by the end of the season. That would be a little bit of a surprise, but it's an option to them eventually if he gets to the rehab unscathed. But that's the that's the baseball side of what's happening with Shohei Otani right now. And it feels like a footnote given how large the scope of everything else is right now. Ever tried to break a bad habit and felt like you're climbing Everest and flip flops? Yeah, we've been there too. But here's a breath of fresh air. Fume. It's not about giving up, it's about switching up.

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You can spin your Fume around on it. Start the year off right with the good habit by going to tryfume.com slash barrels and getting the journey pack today. Fume is giving listeners of the show 10% off when they use the code barrels to help make starting the good habit that much easier. Beyond Otani, we have an extension for Ezekiel Tovar, a seven year extension with the Rockies. 63 and a half million plus an option for 2031. Yes, that's a real year at 20 and a half million dollars. We've talked about Tovar a few times on this show as one of the more aggressive hitters in terms of approach in the league.

And the overall results in his first full season with the Rockies last year were underwhelming at the play to 27 percent K rate with a four point one percent walk rate. It was a 70 WRC plus. But we're talking about a player who was a rookie and he turned 22 in August. So he was very young to be there, played great defense at shortstop, was a gold glove finalist at shortstop. So you can start to piece together like a, hey, like what's the floor for Ezekiel Tovar

and say good defender at short, guy that might actually, you know, over time strike out a little bit less and be able to take his hit tool and continue to progress in a kind of gradual way at the plate. My question for you is as much as his approach would scare us, if it were for a 28, 29, 30 year old player, Javier Baez, like at the end of the the aging curve, like drops off really sharply for players that have an approach like Tovar's. Do we ever see positive outcomes in terms of making significant adjustments when we're talking about someone who's so much younger

for the level than a lot of other players that debut? Yeah, and there are different ways to sort of get out of this flaw of not having great play discipline or not having a great eye, right? And this is something I realized even with Josh Hamilton at the time, who has this same sort of sort of chasing mentality, very aggressive mentality, is that if you, like contact rates are such that they're almost always above 30%. Right.

So like you, you could just keep swinging. You could, you basically make contact before you strike out. And it seems like Tobar has become even more aggressive this spring. This spring, he has a 16% a swing strike rate, which is again, just like we just had before, but somehow he only has a 22% strikeout rate this spring. And I think that's, I think he's just going to try and be so aggressive early in the counts and just

not get to those two strike counts and just try to use, you know, hit tool. We think of somebody that has a 16% switch or swing strike rate is not having a great hit tool, but I don't know if that's a hundred percent correct. That's that's swing and miss. It's not necessarily that means he has a poor hit tool. And, um, I think the hit tool is the hardest thing to define. So he, he is definitely one of those guys that I have very few shares

of and did not want anywhere. I might have one or two because you, at some point you have to just take a guy, um, that might, that project produced that projects have value, right? Um, that I'm going to be wrong on, I think. You know, like he's the park is going to be good for him. And yeah, it's going to be, I think it's going to be biased like, and it's going to be really good for like four or five years. I could see that happening and then having a sharp drop off after that.

So I don't know the extension thing. Uh, they probably got him for his best years. So it's, it's okay. But you know, his, his second contract is not one I would hand out probably. Right. Like trying to project where he is today and where he'll be at the end of this contract. If you kind of put him in the Javier Baez plate

discipline bucket and say, also there's less raw power. And then when you sign him, if you're not the Rockies, you don't have the benefit of Coors Field. Like all of those factors will be taken into account. I kind of like Tovar where he goes in redraft, though, just because a lot of players in this range kind of in that pick 200 overall range are either part time players or they have a realistic chance of losing a share of playing time.

Tovar is not going to lose playing time. This extension just further cements that. Right. So you're going to get good counting stats because of the volume, you have power already, even if it doesn't develop a lot more 15, 18 home runs seen within reach. I'm just curious if we can steal more bases. Some of that's getting on base more. 287 OVP doesn't exactly give you a ton of opportunities.

This spring. Yeah. Right. So if you can nudge up that OVP doesn't exactly give you a ton of opportunities. This spring. Yeah. Right. So if you can nudge up that OVP, maybe you can get the stolen bases to tick up a little bit. I mean, he's not a burner, but he's not a bad runner either 69 percentile and sprint speed. So you'd think there's a little more speed there if he's able

to create those opportunities. Yeah. And I wonder what the, uh the spring leaders are like. I can't I can't get a team leaderboard, but I can look at the Rockies in terms of how many stolen bases and, you know, Zimmer before you release had four Doyle has three Bouchard has two. They don't seem like they're going to run crazy. This is not like the Nationals

leaderboard. All right, Angels running a lot more this spring too. I saw a tweet from Scott Chu of Pitcher List pointing out they had become one of the more aggressive teams this spring and oh look at that Joe Adele has six Marysnik five Neto four Moniac Hicks Soto three yeah. We talked about Neto at some point, probably on the shortstop preview, maybe on the angels team preview a little bit as well. He's one of those guys where the, the projection is just so modest, but you could talk yourself into him being a major exceed, he kind of goes in that same range as Tovar and I feel similarly about net.

That's the one I'd rather have. I mean, yeah, if I could have one of the other, I'll take the guy who whiffs less, you know, has a better max TV, better bail rate, you know, maybe better legs. So I think it's like this little danger zone at that position where Jeremy Pena probably is the safest. Ezekiel Tovar might be the most, you know, highly, most variable. And then Zach Neto is sort of like, well, if you want the younger player that could get a lot better, you know, who doesn't have pain

is multiple years in the big leagues yet. But you don't want the risk air quotes with Tovar. The netto kind of ticks both boxes and splits the difference. Netto is the if you rank them on floor and ceiling, you know, you'd have pain at the top of floor and ceiling, you know, you'd have, uh, paying you at the top of floor and the bottom of ceiling. A hundred percent. Yeah. But I look at that entire group and like, I could do okay with any one of those three guys as my middle infielder.

A little peek ahead. Uh, I have four shares of Jeremy Pena. And you know, we're going to do some R guys at the end here. The reasoning for me is a lot of those are in keeper leagues and it's really kind of hard, especially in deeper keeper leagues, to acquire a shortstop, like a young shortstop. It's just like, you know, our shortstop before Jeremy Pena in one league was JP Crawford. It's like I was, I'm trying to figure it out, you know, so Payne represented an attainable guy. And then I also I think especially in the deeper,

the deeper your leagues are, floor is underrated. You know, just a guy is going to go out there every day and play shortstop and hit some homers and steal some bags, you know, doesn't really set hearts of flutter and, you know, may not even be relevant in 10 teamers. And even in my 12 teamer, uh, where I have six short stops for some reason, uh, I've somehow kept on to paying you, but they, that might be where I've, uh, I've made a mistake. It's kind of like that old adage.

I think it's college football, especially where they say, well, if you get two quarterbacks, you might not have one, right? If you had six short stops in your 12 team league. That one, I have only old crews. So like, I feel, I feel okay. You do have one. The problem is you play in deeper leagues and you've convinced yourself that the other guys are all worth holding onto because in a deeper league, they'd all play.

On a 12 team bench. And I'm looking at them like, dude, do you just have these guys here? Cause you'd be happy if you had them in a 20 team room. That's a tough toggle. Yeah. Can Tovar qualify as a load them player? Can I start to like Tovar because no one else really does. I mean, to me, he's definitely there, but there are people who like him.

Yeah. I think he, he qualifies for rates and barrels. He's definitely love them there, but there are people who like him. Yeah, I know I think he qualifies for rates and barrels He's a loading player. He's at least for you versus me. He's oh, you can have tovar. I don't care. I don't care about tovar Let's get to a couple other news and notes Corey Seeger and Josh Young expected to be in the Rangers opening day lineup It's pretty good news for the Rangers I think there was a nice discount on Corey Seeger for a little while during draft season. If you haven't drafted yet, you're going to squeeze one in here before opening day. And some people actually draft the weekend of opening day because they play in

longstanding leagues, they get together and you get a few more games in person to think about like, yeah, what about the early drafts? The early drafts all I can take a horse here is hurt. It's hard. How would I draft a guy who's hurt right now? You know? Well, it seems like he's back from that sports hernia and going to go, you know, it's like kind of a similar deal.

I always, did I jump ahead on the rundown on the run down? No, he's there. There he is. There he is. Shoulder could avoid IELTS and I don't know what to learn from it though, because I, you know, it is, I kind of agree. You don't really want to. Buy injured players.

You don't want to buy pictures with bad shoulders in March. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't necessarily tell you like, Oh, you know, every time this is, you know, something like this, you should, you should buy. time this is, you know, something like this, you should, you should buy. I would say, um, that maybe there's just a moment in every draft where you say, screw it. He's fallen too far. I'm going to take him. That's what I think it comes back to. And there's a few other players in this group. I mean, she's Yuri Perez. Like we, we lived in some uncertainty for what felt like at least a week or so where he

had the elbow injury. Everyone was so sad and it seemed like definitely Tommy John coming. Right. And they diagnosed them with elbow inflammation, no surgery needed, at least not at this time, which if you're buying that diagnosis, if you trust that that's all it really is, and he started playing catch over the weekend, then he's probably back in a month or so. Like, and that's sort of in line for him to just be a regular starter

the rest of the way without a lot of restrictions. Obviously, if he feels something in his elbow, he'll shut back down again. But I'm kind of cautiously optimistic with Yuri at this point, just based on how things have progressed over the last week or so. Where does that put Max Meyer? I've had a lot of questions about Max Meyer, you know, Jared Jones made the opening day roster for Pittsburgh. Um, and you know, so there's a lot of people and then Jordan Hicks had

this 10 strikeout game, uh, again, it was against the A's. I do have to point out it was the A's. Was it their A lineup or their B lineup? It doesn't matter. Uh, it doesn't always matter. Yeah. Um, and so I've had some questions. Oh, I want to get Jared Jones.

Do I drop this or, oh, and so those are kind of three of the hottest names is, is Max Myers, Jared Jones and Jordan Hicks on, on, in sort of 12 team, in the 12 team atmosphere. And I would say, uh, so I asked you, uh, Derek Van Riper, um, what happens when Braxton Garrett and Yuri Perez are healthy? What happens to Max Meyer? Well, Myers workload is going to be managed pretty carefully anyway. But if we assume that everybody else in that rotation is

working, Brera got that ever Cabrera has a similar situation to your prize where it's like it sounded bad at first is shoulder. It's an impingement, which isn't that bad. An impingement. Who had the impingement? Shame to clan a hand had the impingement. Right. But you could came back from it.

You could have the impingement and come back in a month or six weeks and then tear your elbow completely unrelated to the impingement. It was the next year. I think he tore the elbow. Yeah, that's sort of that's what it seems like in the McClanahan example. That's just the always having that risk of being a pitcher. What do I think is going to happen? Well, Lizardo obviously is in as long as he's healthy.

Yuri in the rotation as long as he's healthy. Maybe they'd be careful with Puck too. Like would they give Puck a temporary break from starting? I just think they're probably using a six man rotation once they get everybody available. So then it's Lizardo, it's Perez, it's Garrett. Those are your first three. If you keep Puckardo, it's Perez, it's Garrett, those are your first three. If you keep puckin', that's four.

Cabrera, Rodgers, you'd bump Meyer as the odd man out. I just assume one of those six that I named before Meyer is probably going to be banged up at any given time. Still. The odds of all of them being healthy ahead of him seem pretty low. And then in the unlikely event that it happens, you just bump one guy into long relief for a little while because you got to manage their innings.

But then they're stretched out enough to quickly bump back into the rotation without much difficulty. And they may just play help permitting a schedule based game with that group and give everybody a little bit of a run in the bullpen to take a few innings off. My answer to that question was that Meyer has better command and Jones and Hicks have better stuff. But to be a starting pitcher, I do think command is important, even if we can't necessarily lock this down. We talked about this a little bit in New York. When we're talking about starting pitching, it's not just success, it's success as a starting pitcher. You know, like we know that Jared Jones, Jordan Hicks

and Max Meyer could all be closers. Right? We know that. I think we can say that. Like we know that. What do we know who's going to be a starter? Who's going to be a successful starter? And I think Max Meyer's command puts them a little bit ahead in terms of, you know, that likelihood. Um, the innings is a big question, but maybe in a 12 team or you don't care about innings over the whole season, you're just like, Oh, who's the better one right now? Because I don't know. I don't like, I can drop these guys and get somebody off the waiver later if they, if they get managed, if their innings get managed. So I kind of put Hicks and Jones together as wildish guys with great stuff.

You know, all three of these guys are likely to get 90 to 100 innings this year. Right, the shape of the innings could be a little bit tricky with all of them, but they're all getting the chance right now, and I think you do have to play present over future when you get to that point, when the season starts and you can run waivers and it does feel like you're the meme, you know, you're holding hands

with one person and checking out someone else. Like that's, that's what like the bottom of your roster is every single year where you're like, oh, he, you know, I'm holding hands with Trevor Rodgers. Oh, we just finished talking to Jared Jones. Oh, Luis Huell. Right. It's like, you can't have all of these pictures on your roster.

I had a few leagues that ran fab on Sunday night and I barely bid because I happened to guess right on a whole bunch of different roster, like job battles and different things where I looked and I said, is there a clear upgrade? Even though a bunch of stuff has happened, some of these leagues drafted a month ago. Most of mine were just swapping out injured guys. Yeah, it was just, has anyone hurt? Who can I pick up? And then do I want to spend 10% of my budget

on something I don't need? I just made a bunch of low bids and scooped up a whole bunch of shares of Brock Stewart and Trevor McGill. Yeah, the hardest decision for me was I had James MacArthur and was staring at Brock Stewart and McGill. And so what I ended up doing is just low bids on Stewart and McGill because I knew that

worst case scenario I still had MacArthur, you know. And in the places I was most extra steals, you know, for saves, I would try, I tried to get Stewart and McGill on alongside MacArthur. But again, I, I bid like 12 bucks each on those guys and just try to get lucky on a cheap one but. Yeah we feel i'm gonna put him behind Jones and Hicks in this weird grouping of players put together just from dm's and discord questions and stuff. But, you know, they're, they're hot names. The reason I want to put heel just behind Jones is that I think they're mostly fastball cider guys. He'll change up is better than Jones's third pitch.

However, Jones is. Mill year is way better. His park, you know, is way better. His opponents are going to be worse. You know, I think Jones is just more set up for success right away. We could watch one start of heel and I'll feel like an idiot. Like maybe he'll just dominate. But, um, you know, it's a tough park and it's a tough division. He's going up against the Red Sox offense, the Blue Jays offense, the Orioles offense, you know, I don't think that, you know, Jared Jones has the same problems.

I think there's a lot about Heal's profile that reminds me of Hicks. Mostly when you see big time K rates next to problematic walk rates and you say, Oh, okay, well there have been some health issues. There's been a more consistent, you're a starter in the eyes of the organization role where, you know, heels appearances outside of. Geez, I don't see any relief appearances. I think he had a couple of spring appearances that weren't starts, but that's just because that's how your innings show up over the course of the year.

It has only been a handful of times. The Yankees have used him as a non starter across all of his time in their organization. So they at least see him as someone that is worth trying to stretch out. The case should be there. The floor looks nice. I do think the park makes things difficult. But yeah, you also take a look at a small sample of a lower walk rate than he's ever posted from what he did this spring. And you start to get a little bit optimistic.

So if I could. As Jones's walk rate when the other direction, they went back back up. from what he did this spring, and you start to get a little bit optimistic. So if I could only- Whereas Jones' walk rate went in the other direction, it went back up. Yeah, I think if I have Hicks on my roster, and I've got him a couple of places already, and I'm looking at Jones and Heal and Meyer, is there a clear upgrade there?

Probably not. Would I consider doing the thing where I bid very low on all three of the other more exciting options? I probably would, because I think Max Meyers, the guy I actually want of the group. I'm not worried about the other Marlin starters all getting healthy. I think of Meyer pitches well. He could make his case and keep a spot anyway. They could trade pitching.

That's always an option for them to. Whereas he'll has, you know, Will Warren potentially looking over his shoulder. Eventually, Garrett Cole should be back in the fold. And by the way, I had a draft last night, 260 budget, 15 team league. Garrett Cole went for seven bucks. That a risk we're taking at this point? Yes. Good. Cause I got them. I didn't have any plan of going in and adding Garrett Cole on that team. I'm like seven bucks for four months of Garrett Cole. Yeah, I could figure that out.

That's funny. But I think a Meyer, like a Meyer Jones heel in terms of long term value, short term value. Good luck. I mean, there's just so little that separates them for me in the short term that I would have very similar bids on all of them if I was trying to replace someone that was just similar, but not quite as exciting. And Hicks is pretty darn exciting.

Even throwing out what he did on Monday night. We have some, uh, we have some spring stuff just to bring that into the mix. Max Meyer's slider, 133 stuff plus. Great. Max Meyers, Four Seam Fastball, 83 stuff plus. Change up 71. So he's definitely one of these guys who's going to be pitching off of the slider. However, there's plenty of people who have taken this package and run with it.

I mean, it's a, Brad British is a guy who comes to mine. Plus you've got the nice, really nice home park, um, that you can, uh, fall back on Louis heel, forcing fastball 149 stuff plus slider one 15 change up one Oh eight. This is the thing I saw 87 location plus on that change up. And so he tries to use it as a freeze pitch because he's very north south with his rest of his stuff. And the change up is a power sideways. And so I think batters mostly say, I'm not going to swing at this. He almost hit Trey Turner in the face with a 90 mile an hour change up.

So he does not have good command of that. But when he does, if he can just throw it in the zone he'll get called strikes with that lot I just a seven location plus meets my eye test I was like he cannot command that pitch so then he becomes this two pitch pitcher why does he have high walk rates and a lot of games start in the minor leagues because he's probably working on that change-up I think he can command the other two pitches who else we have here H, I don't know that I need to break this out. Yeah, Hicks we have an established situation where it's great stuff numbers on all his pitches, even the splitter and in poor location numbers.

And then Jared Jones, Jared Jones and Heal actually were tied in stuff plus and like at third and fourth among track pitchers in the major leagues in spring training Jared Jones 148 stuff plus on the foreseam 123 on the cutter 121 on the slider and 98 on the curveball if he really does have four distinct pictures like that then I think long terms I want Jones I think there's arguments to be made for anybody in that group because they're all they're all interesting for slightly different reasons. The other guy that's not part of that conversation now, but could be part of a conversation like this in the future is Paul Skeen's because he's going to start the season at AAA. Bailey Falter, I believe, has a spot in the rotation for the Pirates right now. That would be the who could cough up a spot for Paul Skeens.

I think Bailey Falter would be my first choice of like most likely to be shifted into more of a long relief role. Because Contreras and Luis Ortiz interestingly, guys who have popped in Stuff Plus in the past, but Contreras couldn't keep his fastball shape. Ortiz couldn't command it, look like they're in the bullpen. Ortiz could come back out of it I think easier than Contreras, but they've also got Quinn Priester and they even signed Domingo Hermand, so there's other options that Bailey Falter hold on that position seems like it could falter quickly.

Yeah, nice first start of the season too for Jared Jones. I think he gets the Marlins during the opening weekend. So probably has some streaming appeal, even in some of those more shadow leagues out there that have first come first served moves. Some other injuries to get to, how about Paul Seawald, a grade two oblique strain. So we're right back to where we were, you know,

this time last year looking at this Arizona bullpen and trying to figure out who actually is the likely candidate for most saves. Names include Kevin Ginkle, Ryan Thompson, Scott McGuff. Maybe there's other sleepers in there. I think it's gotta be Ginkle. Thompson's got that, that, the very few closers have had that arm slot. Yeah. You know. Real low.

I just, it's, it leads to platoon splits. It's, it's not a power pitcher. People want a power pitcher. Kevin Genkle was a power pitcher. I mean, Justin Martinez, I think he got sent down. Yeah. Really good stuff, but very, very low grades on the command right now. Yeah, they optioned him. They optioned him on the 10th of March, so he wasn't even

hanging around for long. So it's getting cool for me. Maybe Martinez comes up for the roster slot and becomes part of that bullpen, but I, you know, I guess they can't depend on his command, uh, in the ninth. So it's getting cool for me. Are you ready to throw 15, 20 plus percent of your budget at Kevin ginkle? Like, doesn't that, doesn't that drive you a little bit nuts when it comes to fantasy baseball, where you have this player that you outside of like NL only leagues or draft and hold, you wouldn't have stashed away because Paul Seawald is a pretty solid closer.

Seawall gets hurt and all of a sudden, oh, there goes 20% of my fab budget. If I need saves, like that's, I don't know. It's something about that's frustrating. I've just never, I've never, I won't do it. Uh, even 10%, I, like I said, I put, you know, $15 out of a thousand on Brock Stewart, what I want to do is get that guy a week early, you know, $15 out of a thousand on Brock Stewart. What I want to do is get that guy a week early. Yeah.

You know? Um, so I tend to have, I tend to just dedicate one bench slot to prospecting on saves so that I can spend $15 rather than 200. I don't ever want to spend $200. You can spend $200 on Gengel, get, saves and then see what's back I mean with a grade to oblique strain the windows a little bit longer, but it's still a Situation where seawall should be the guy once he gets back that hopefully will temper the biz a little bit on ginkle But I'm with you. I think ginkle is the clear-cut next option up for the D backs Jordan Romano is likely to begin the season on the IL

with what they're calling elbow inflammation. So similar to the Uri Perez diagnosis in that it doesn't seem like there's a structural problem in play here. And given that he's a veteran reliever as opposed to a very young future ace, maybe there's a quicker return for Romano. The other problem for the Js in the short term, those Eric Swanson, who might

be the next option up ordinarily is down with a forearm injury right now. So is it Ymi Garcia, Chad Green, or somebody else that you're looking at as a short term replacement for Romano in Toronto? I was talking to a blue Jays coach and I think it's. Jimmy really. Yes. I was talking to a Blue Jays coach and I think it's Jimmy. Really? Yeah. Yes.

Don't, don't trust me. I'll call him Garcia for now. Uh, Garcia, uh, Garcia has had a good spring, uh, stuff wise. I really liked Chad Green and I think he could do the job. I, I think that we are all humans though and you're gonna look at that seven, eight ERA for Chad Green and be influenced by it even if you think his stuff is good.

So I'm thinking Green is the setup guy and Garcia is the closer. I think there's even been some comments to that effect. Yeah, it does seem like Garcia has the inside track. On a personal note, I think Ygriega is the most ridiculous letter in the alphabet in Spanish. Just the letter Y. But it just doesn't appear in a lot of words.

Standalone, it means and. There's a lot going on there. So I need to go take another Spanish class and dig into that some more. Was there even some discussion with Jordan Alvarez? It's actually Jordan Alvarez? I remember that beginning of his career and everyone's still calling him Jordan. So I don't know.

Took a lot of Spanish. No one ever told me to pronounce Y's like J's. Yeah, but there's also like regional differences. There's Puerto Rico, there's Cuba. Again, maybe didn't take enough years of Spanish. Maybe need more. So they didn't have a Puerto Rican teacher. I don't know. Now we got to, we got to dig in even further.

Some other news, uh, Brian Wu will begin the year on the IL with elbow inflammation. Did you know that news came down? Like I was clicking Brian, I clicked Brian Wu to pick him. And then some of the chat goes, you didn't see the news. And I click over to see the news. And I was like, that news came in like a minute ago. You like, you saw this news. So you have like, you know, like MLB trade wars or something open while draft. Maybe I should have, but I started to draft from a little league baseball game.

So sorry. I know I didn't see the news. Dang it. Limited screen resources drafting from a game like that. It's going to happen right after I took Verlander where I was like, is it injury stash? We got unlimited I L it's perfect. I went, yeah, injury guy, injury guy.

Nice. Later I took to Grom just to, just to throw it all in there. Might as well. If you got the spots to stash them away with Wu. The good news here is they did have him go through an MRI. It came back clean. They're hoping seven to 10 days of rest. He'll start throwing again.

So Emerson Hancock steps in for now, but it may be April or even just part of April before Wu was back in the equation for Seattle. Yeah, I'm hoping, you know, when I was doing my main event draft, which I just completed, we kind of had pitchers in two buckets. One was Mrs. A month, where it's just a little bit harder to like hold them and think about them. And maybe it's going to get worse, you know, and Mrs. A couple of weeks. And we had a little bit of distinction there. I, I think wooze on that side. Closer to the couple of weeks than the full month. Yeah. Based on what we know right now, I would agree with that assessment. Circling back to the Diamondbacks,

Eduardo Rodriguez has a lat injury. So he was placed on the IL that opened up a spot for both Ryan Nelson and Tommy Henry to begin the season. The more I look at that bullpen or that rotation, the more I think Ryan Nelson's probably the permanent fifth starter. Once Erod comes back. Because it was sort of announced that Henry was in because of Edward Rodriguez, right? Which sort of assumes that Nelson's in already. And the lat strains are, this is difficult for a lot of reasons. One is that it sounds like back, but it's really kind of part of the shoulder

apparatus, like it's really, it's all tied together. It's, you know, it's, it's hard to be like, Oh, this is a very distinct injury. Um, but also, exactly. But also it's an actual injury was we just talked with that woo and Cabrera impingement is close. Um, but you know, some of these inflammations are, are less likely to be an actual injury. They may turn into an injury or they may be hiding an injury. Sometimes you do a scan.

If you have the inflammation, we heard learned this a little bit. We were talking about this with Trevor May, which is like, if you have swelling, if you have inflammation, sometimes you don't catch the actual injury. Sometimes you do a scan. If you have the inflammation, we heard, learned this a little bit. We were talking about this with Trevor May, which is like, if you have swelling, if you have inflammation, sometimes you don't catch the actual injury. So it could turn out that some of these inflammation or injuries, but I will take inflammation over an actual strain. So if I had Edward Rodriguez and there were options out there on the wire and it wasn't a keeper league, I've already been the low man,

but I would just drop it or Rodriguez. I think that's the easy way to go in shallow leagues, deeper leagues, a little tougher. Like in a 15 teamer, he's, is he good enough to hold on to? Like he's right on that borderline for me. Like I wouldn't walk into that situation. I think I have him like ranked 60th,

so I feel like he's pretty close to the streaming line anyway. Yeah, if he's that close to the streaming line for you when healthy, then I think it's an great 60th. So I feel like he's pretty close to the streaming line anyway. Yeah, if he's that close to the streaming line for you and healthy, then I think it's an easier drop for you. I think I'm a little higher on Erod, but tough call to make for sure. Few more news and notes here.

Jackson Holliday falls short of the Orioles opening day roster. It seemed like he was heating up as a camp went along as well. But the question for most people is like, how long do you think we're going to have to stash Jackson Holliday in redraft leagues before he breaks through with the Orioles? I believe that the kind of super two area, like the extra year of team control or whatever, is May 25th.

For players who don't have any time. So he could be magically ready in late May. There was a 30% strikeout rate this spring that was pretty surprising to everybody because it came with a 19% whiff rate where he had eights and nines before. So I'm sure that was part of the sort of surprising underlying numbers that they

they just wanted to see him go back to double A or go back to triple A and mash again. There's also like the question of like who's he replacing? So Westberg's playing fine. Then what's the deal with like, what do you need to pick him up for? I guess you're playing Urias at third. Yeah. It's just not that high of a bar. I think if he goes to AAA, mashes for a couple of weeks,

gets the K rate down, they could say, let's just go for the rookie of the year award. Let's go for that draft pick compensation and play it that way. I had somebody point out this, this is interesting. Uh, Jackson Holliday. I don't know that you're going to platoon him, but he is a lefty batter. And there's a weird twist of the schedule. I think the, uh, or start with like four lefties in the first five or six games. So, uh,

it's possible that you just would want this guy to hit the ground running and not, you know, hey, opening day, you've got five lefties in a row. That's fair. Yeah. And I think with where he was going and redraft, I think you, you knew this was a possible outcome and you probably had a fixed number of lineup periods that you hoped you'd be able to stash him for. I would guess it's a month for most people. If it's not up by the end of April and you don't have enough bench spots. You're not going to wait all the way to May 25th, probably. I don't think so.

I mean, most likely your roster is not going to hold out. It's not going to hold shape that long. It just doesn't work that way. Um, they did put Colton Couser on the opening day roster. He had a huge spring. The playing time questions in the outfield are just as interesting as what we've seen in the outfield. And with Kauser, he's a lefty in an outfield

that has a few different options between, you know, Mullens being the center fielder, Santander being a switch hitter, and Austin Hayes being a righty. Like that looks like the best path is wrestling playing time away from Hayes. And then of course, you know, pushing someone else into the DH mix along with Ryan Mountcastle.

But between O'Hern and Mountcastle at first base in DH, that's the other spot you could look at and say, something could give with one of those guys. You shift everybody around a little bit and suddenly Colton Couser ends up with a spot to call his own. So another kind of fluid aspect of what the Orioles have right now.

Yeah, jumping ahead again to my player shares, Cedric Mullins, I have five shares and I've, I've got an ongoing conversation, uh, with somebody in my, in my DMS about, uh, we've got a beer riding on it now. I use the reason my reasoning for taking him is he's, uh, usually available after pick one 50. Um, so I usually get him in the 10th, 11th, 12th rounds and he represents to me, a guy who should hit at least 15 homers and steal 30 bags. So, you know, I pick one 50 makes a lot of sense. Um, his, uh, line of reasoning is they're playing cows are in center.

He's not a platoon fit with Mullins cause they're both lefties and his defense is not as good as Mullins. So, um, I think the cows are in center was just, can we play him there sometimes? Um, and, and maybe they, maybe they play him against lefties over Mullins cause he's just a little bit better against lefties over Mullins because he's just a little bit better against lefties than Mullins. I still think Mullins is at least getting two thirds. And I think center field is a place

you'd rather just stick someone all the time. So I'm also looking at this roster and saying, who is the guy, is there somebody here that they're trying to sneak into the organization? This is something that like Farhan does where somebody makes the opening day roster and then gets cut like two weeks into the season because it's easier to sneak someone through waivers once the rosters are set and all the other teams are like, no, I've, I've got my roster.

Oh, do I really want Nevin? I might've liked Nevin, you know, two weeks ago, but I made a decision from this guy. So to me it's maybe Tyler Nevin. Cause I was looking, did Nick Maiton make this roster? No. And who is the bottom guy on this roster that, that made it. And it's Tyler Nevin for me. Yeah.

I think it's Nevin and then maybe it is. Or Mateo, but Urias and Mateo have like real solid use cases, you know? Yeah, I think Urias is his use case is better for this roster. And Mateo, but Mateo is infield outfield. Right. Which is really useful. So Taylor Nevin is just a backup first baseman, Thursday, it's an outfielder. That's the Jackson holiday spot because you can play Jackson at, at second, where

he was playing all spring and play Westberg and you're is the third. It's going to work itself out. I'm pretty confident we're still going to see the guys that we want to see in Baltimore for most of the season, even though we're going to wait just a little bit longer for Jackson Holiday to get that opportunity. And we may have a late shift in St. Louis as a result of a collision in the outfield. I happen to be watching this game on Monday afternoon.

Jordan Walker and Dylan Carlson converse on a ball in the gap and kind of at the last minute Walker tried to dive out of the way and kind of went low on Dylan Carlson. Carlson hurt his shoulder. I haven't seen any followups yet as far as whether or not there's structural damage, but if Carlson would have missed time, they may have to turn to Victor Scott earlier than they anticipated in St. Louis.

Yeah. I saw some early bids speculating on that. Victor Scott is a burner, a hundred and plus 105 steals across all the levels last year, something like that. Um, just, uh, he's a son of sprinters. Uh, he was telling me a cool thing about how his dad used to hold an iron pole out, uh, 15 yards away from him and tell him to sprint. Um, and he, he held it out so that he had to go under it.

Cause it's good to stay low at first when you sprint and then come up high and not just like come up high right away. So you had this like whole dad with the iron pole bit that I thought was interesting, but, um, yeah, no, I think he's, he's really interesting. Uh, I think he has non-zero power. So I think he's 10 to 15 homers, uh, 50, 60 steals. If you gave him a full year, obviously for me, the best defensive centerfielder that they have as an option.

Yeah. It'd be a tough break for Carlson if he loses this job while he's hurt, but it's at least it's a possibility because Scott really looks like the future in center field for the Cardinals, uh, Matt McClain dealing with a shoulder injury. Still not sure what the results of his examination on Monday will reveal, but just a, another problem. The bad words were uttered. Surgery is on the table.

Yeah. So this one, he's been dropping to a bench pick where people are like, well, I'll drop him if he, if he has surgery. Yeah. It kind of feels like that's the direction that story's headed. The Garrett Mitchell injury could actually open up more times. Going to lead off. Yeah.

It was going to make the team. So Brewer's Twitter is still kind of in the how good is Garrett Mitchell phase, which is fair because it's been a limited sample. He's been productive with a really high K rate. That doesn't quite seem like who he is as a player. Now, with Mitchell having a fractured left hand, that's going to be a four to six week injury.

You're probably gonna see Sal Frelick go back from the dirt to center field, and then you see more Joey Ortiz at third base. That would be my guess as to like what the most common adjustment would be for Mitchell's injury. And who's the roster replacement? Wimmer comes back up?

Yeah, Wimmer would be the extra outfielder if they need another center fielder on the roster. Yeah. Wimmer would be the extra outfielder if they need another center fielder on the roster. Yeah. But Wimmer wouldn't play much in that configuration. Because of handedness? Right. Yeah. It'd be like mostly small side platoon. I don't even know how much they're going to sit Freelick against lefties.

I think they're going to let Freelick play against lefties. But- I mean, they were trying to get him in the lineup. Yeah. And I think with Freelick, I think he makes a lot more sense to me as a table setter in the one spot than he did in the Heart of the Order last year where they were hitting him after they brought him up. Oh yeah, I mean he's the contact guy with that much power. High OBPs, speed, occasional power fits really well I think at the top of that lineup. That appears to be the fallout of the Garrett Mitchell injury. We didn't

get a chance to talk about this yet either. JD Martinez has joined the Mets on a one year deal and that looks like it was the reason why Mark Vientos has been optioned back to AAA to start the season. It's awesome. Tweet that was like, uh, uh, it was like, it showed a picture of Vientos and JD Martinez talking at the cage and it was underneath it said, um, you know, JD Martinez, uh, sorry for taking your job kid. And then, uh, Vento saying back, well, you know, JD Martinez, sorry for taking your job, kid. And then Vantos saying back, well, you know, they, uh, you know, it hasn't been determined, you know, you know, we'll see what happens or whatever.

And then JD Martinez says, sorry for taking your job. That'd be a bummer to have a spot that you think is going to be yours all spring in the last 10 days, last week, a veteran comes in and you just know, like crap, that is a lot of playing time that just got chewed up by a signing where JD is probably going to hit cleanup in this lineup. So if there was a late draft season drop in terms of where he was going, that probably gets corrected over the last week. He's also not expected to be ready for opening day.

It's going to take a little more time to get ready But not long after opening day JD Martinez probably hitting behind Pete Alonso for the Mets and JD Martinez took the job the offer from the Mets over the over the Giants both of them have pitching friendly parks and Somebody was pointing out that, you know, the different park factors and such and such. But the one thing about park factors that doesn't quite capture it all.

And this is one thing that team players have actually literally asked me to model for them, which isn't quite out in the space. So if you want an idea that isn't quite out there is more granular park factors. I think I've seen some stuff about like sort of center right or whatever, but like doing a better job of like mapping expected home runs and expected output specifically with their swings and their sort of heat maps in general, because he said specifically in a thing, particularly those that go to right center.

And I have to say, right-handers that go to right center do not fare that well in San Francisco. That's called triple's alley. It's not called home run alley. No, and JD Martinez isn't gonna turn those triples into doubles. Yeah.

So that's the downside, I mean at this stage of his career. So that's, that's the downside. I mean, at this stage of his career, it looks like, you know, if you kind of look at his spray chart from 2023, 11 homers were to dead center and to right center. He had four that were completely oppo to right. So it should be a little better for him at city field than it would have been in San Francisco. I also think it'd be a little weird to have JD and Jorge Saler on the same roster.

Like, you don't want to play Jorge Saler in the outfield a lot. Maybe that offer is on the table for Saler. Yeah, it might have been back then, but I don't know. I'm okay with JD Martinez. He's 36 now. I think he's got that, could slip pretty quickly, even though the quality of contact is so good. Injuries have kind of been an on again, off again problem for him, too. So I'm not saying he's a must grab sort of player,

but I'm a little worried, especially with the K rate jumping last year. Thirty one percent K rate's a big, big leap for JD Martinez. Could this team win a wild card? Yes, it could. All right. Last topic for today. Your most heavily rostered players for this season. Who is important to several of your teams? And before we started recording,

you gave me a crack at the number one name on the list. I think I narrowly missed, but number one is not a surprise. If you listen to the show, if you had three guesses, I would say most of our listeners would pretty confidently land it. Yeah, think for a surprise. If you listen to the show, if you had three guesses, I would say most of our listeners put pretty confidently landed. Yeah.

Think, think, think for a minute. Who do you think Eno's most rostered player is so far in 2024? As like, as a run up to this, uh, I just want to say that most rostered players are interesting because they are not going to be the players that you necessarily think are the best because the best players you require, maybe it's a keeper league situation and Acuna is kept. I obviously think Acuna is the best player in the big leagues this year in terms of position players, definitely easiest, the best player,

but how many times I get the first pick, you know, and that actually happens to be a big deal in the first sort of 20 to 30 picks. You know, it's like, if I pick one, there's going to be picks that I'm not accessible, like I can't get, you know, after that. So what ends up happening is these lists ends up telling you, who do you like late in a draft? That's, that's what you're doing because it's late in the draft. You can jump a guy of round or two off of ADP because it doesn't matter as much. You know, like you're, you're in the draft taking, it's the YOLO part of the draft, you can jump a guy a round or two off of ADP. Cause it doesn't matter as much, you know, like you're, you're in the draft

taking it's the YOLO part of the draft. So this is my YOLO list and my number one is the most boring player ever. It's not a YOLO at all. It's Seth Lugo. Of course it's Seth Lugo. And the reason that he has shown up on so many places is that I do take risk in my pitching staff. And I see Lugo is one of the last guys that is not that risky.

I don't think he's got great upside, but I think I will start him 75% of the time when I own it. I think I'll start him for almost every start in Kansas city and I'll start him half the time on the road. almost every start in Kansas city and I'll start them half the time on the road. And a 75% starter where he goes, he goes among the streamers, the 50%ers, the guys that may not even make the opening day roster, the, you know, he goes against the guys that you may drop two starts in. So that's I take.

Okay. So a couple of spots down, uh, actually next, because there is a tie. So I have seven shares of said, I have five shares of Edward Cabrera. Now that makes a lot more sense to people be like, oh yeah, YOLO. But Lugo and Cabrera are a package deal. You know what I mean? Lugo is the one that's going to make the starts. Edward Cabrera is the one that I may actually have to drop now, but you know what

I mean? Like it's, it's the, that's the pairing. And so, uh, Matt Manning, I have five shares. That one didn't work out. We'll see how long I hold onto him. A lot of, and then a lot of these shares are in different types of leagues. So I have Matt Manning and keeper leagues where I just, I just hold on to them until he comes back up and he was, he was, didn't cost anything.

I met many in draft and holds fine. He's going to give me some innings at some point this season. Uh, you know, I'm not that worried to get sent down. Um, but, uh, you know, Tanner, how. He's pairs with said Lugo really well. You take a said Lugo, you take a Tanner, how you're hoping Tanner, how is really, really good and you're hoping South Lugo just stays healthy. That the different it's like, you know, having different approaches.

So that's, those are my, and then, you know, I have, uh, uh, what I have four shares each of, uh, of a couple of closers and it's funny, they're not what I think are the best closers, but I've been doing this thing where I take a top closer and then I take a cheap closer, right? And I take a real cheap closer. So my most Ross Rosser closers are not the ones I think are the best again, but they are Robert Suarez, Hunter Harvey and Carlos Estevez. Why?

Because I look up in the 20th round and say, which closers are left? And these are the ones that I actually, I like them a little bit. So if you want a late closer Suarez Harvey and Estevez are fine for me. It's interesting. Yeah. I mean, it makes sense. Like we've talked about this, a few different draft seasons now, and you end up with these later players that are generally easier to get onto your roster as your most rostered players when you play a lot. Lugo is just one that I'm happy you have them as many places as you do.

Cause I know sometimes you're in a room, people know who you like. They're going to be in this room. You got snagged from me a couple of times. I could have had more. Could have had 10, could have had 10 chairs. I've got it like, geez, four different sites I'm playing on right now. And I've got fewer NFBC teams than usual, but I've got it like, jeez, four different sites I'm playing on right now. And I've got fewer NFBC teams than usual, but I've got four on the NFBC platform so far. Luis Severino is on three.

And I've got Severino in labor. I got Severino in that auction from last night. Like, there's just he is my most rostered player. I am convinced. And we talked about it throughout the draft season that the struggles last year with the Yankees were the function of tipping pitches. They were not the function of having really lost stuff or lossy ability to command things.

And the floor to me is so much safer for him at city field than it was at Yankee State. If he stayed a Yankee, I would still have him in a couple places. I would not have him in this many places because it can go so sideways when it's not going well in a park like that. Yeah. No, I think that that's a great one. Do I have a Luis Severino type a picture here? Oh, I have a Luis Severino type.

His name is Tyler O'Neill. Nah. Yeah. It's kind of a similar hitterside. Yeah name is, uh, Tyler O'Neill. Nah, yeah. It's kind of a similar hit or side. Yeah. Guy that's like shown it before. I mean, going to a better park for his skills, you know? Um, but, uh, I also, uh, I have, uh, five shares of Reese Hoskins, which

just sort of snuck up on me. And I think it's just because, uh, I like the, the projections say he's going to be fine. And I'm, I'm just not that worried about that kind of an injury for first baseman, you know, I just, I think he, he's going to roll out of bed and mash again. I think it's, you know, another 30 type homers and a two 50 average. And I've done a lot of builds where I can afford to take a little hit on the batting average there. And, uh, he also represents a weird spot in the first base rankings where he's the last

one that's, you know, sort of upper tier or like, he's he's sort of a tear break, you know? And so I end up being like, well, I don't really want Jamer Candelario is my starting first baseman. You know, so I'm going to go with Hoskins here. Yeah. I think that makes sense. That's the last chance of a tier last chance of a player type. That definitely seems like something you could end up with a lot.

Cause even if you use similar builds, some of those players fit multiple foundations to the do everything type players. O'Neill's a little bit of a do everything type. So he makes sense to someone you could always say, hey, this helps me. Rather than maybe batting average, this is going to help me in all the other categories. It doesn't really matter what I did at the start. I'm going to go ahead and throw him on my roster here. I've got a lot of Richie Palacios.

I missed out on him last night because of Jason Collette. Not a surprise. I tried to sneak him through night because of Jason Collette. Not a surprise. Tried to sneak him through early for a dollar. That didn't work. Had money trouble, as I often do in auctions, spending too much early. Think about for the first seven players, for like 140 bucks.

Yours? Yeah, I went heavy. Oh, that's a Derek Van Riper build right there. Yeah, it was the draft started at bedtime build. So if I get pulled away, I just don't, I don't want there to be consequences for stepping away. If I, if I, if I got the foundation, I like to get dollar guys on the, on the wire. Yeah.

I could miss five or six players and I probably wasn't going to have been on those players anyway. Uh, I do like playing that way. And I did get players. I liked it. Prices. I liked it. Just, it was one of those things where it was like, well, if I'm aggressive here,

this won't be the worst time to be aggressive given life factors. I ended up with a little bit of Starling Marte because of you. That's your influence on me. Yeah, Starling Marte 4. 4 for me. Yeah. I'm more like two, I think two or three across all the rosters. It would really help if I could multiple, I can make a spreadsheet. I know how, but it'd be great if I could just click a button and it would just be done for me, so I don't have to do it manually. Yeah, I actually combed through all my different teams

to add to my, it was not the most scientifically rigorous, so I may have lost some guys, but I just sort of did it by, Starley Marte is interesting to me, just because last year he was hurt. He was terrible. He's 35 and he stole 24 bags in 344 plated ones. So it's like, that's a, that's just a steel play for me. I'm just like, Hey, that's, that's the worst case scenario.

I just get 25 bags in half a season. Yeah, man. I'll take it. 25 bags, 25 bags. I need those. That'll be nice. Jordan Alvarez on four teams. That's kind of unusual. That's pretty high up. I think my highest up guide is like that.

It's Ellie Dela Cruz. I ended up with four shares. I will say two of them are keeper leagues. So that means I picked them up as a prospect or, you know, I once had a birdie whisper in my ear. He said, the cruiser's hitting the ball harder than anybody else in the minor leagues. And so I went and picked him up as well. I think I even said that on this pod at some point, a long time ago.

So if anybody's been listening for a while, they know that I've loved Ellie, uh, since that moment, because hitting the ball hard is. I want you to do two things. I want you to make contact. I want to hit the ball hard. I want you to do two things. I want you to make contact. I want to hit the ball hard. That's what I tell my kid. I want you to do two things. I want you to make contact and hit the ball hard.

Uh, played the split is good, but you can learn it over time. So Ellie's, uh, Ellie's my four share. Your Don, I would rather have four shares of your Don, but the cookie didn't crumble that way. Yeah. I had a lot of late draft positions over the course of draft season so far. It just reminds me of 2022. That was the year I had a bunch of Aaron Judge that year.

Just I don't know. Like, how do you not like a guy that hits for average nearly 40 home runs the year before steals a few bases, plays in a great hitter friendly park, like ticked all the boxes. I didn't expect the 16 steals or the 62 home runs, but it just felt like super safe player could have one of those years where he pops. That's sort of the mindset. I think that pushed me towards your dawn and so many of those leagues. There's a statistical argument for it, too, which is just that

home runs are co correlated. Correlated is a co no, there's a co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co-co- So, uh, there's more co-correlations with the traditional five by size stats between for a home run than there is for a stolen base. Stolen base is lightly correlated to runs, but it doesn't mean you get a run right away. So it's not even that. And you can get runs from guys that don't steal bases, you know, it's a, so, you know, that's the argument for punting stolen bases is that you don't accidentally punt three categories just by punting stolen base. If you punt homers, you're punting like two or three categories.

Like it's never a good idea to punt homers. I'm pretty sure. If you're in a five by a five league and you punt homers, you are probably not going to win that league. That's what I think. Be very hard to find a combination of players that does well in everything else, but is bottom of the pack in power. And the league also just doesn't reward those players anymore.

It may be in the seventies, you could have had like the all speedster, you know, shortstop guys, you know, who hit 15 homers, 10 homers, but the league doesn't play those guys anymore. You know, Mike, my kid was asked about Bryce Touring last night. And he's those, don't you think, don't you think he could just keep playing? Cause he's great at defense. And I'm like, yeah, as a backup, like I just like that type of player doesn't usually get a starting job anymore. There's very few players like that.

Even Victor Scott. The reason I like him is because I keep saying he has non-zero power. If he had zero power, it'd be hard for him. What are we seeing with this story? Ruiz he's going to be platoon this year. It has already begun. The key difference for me with Ruiz and even Turing is that Turing is a premium defender and Ruiz is not.

And I think your only path out of a part-time role with that sort of profile as a hitter is to be a phenomenal defender up the middle. And it has to be at center or short or catcher. Right. And Tarang, I think, got away with it at second in part because the Brewers had an everyday shortstop and it could reach a point where Tarang is a shortstop for somebody because his defense is that good. I think they're even holding him around in case he's the shortstop after it down as possible. I mean, I think having Joey Ortiz there now gives a lot of the pressure away from terrain.

It makes it quite a bit less likely that the terrain is that guy now. Or that terrain even plays. Yeah, it's a legit concern. Other picture that I have a lot of places, Shane Bos, by the way, like four leagues now because I just think. I have a fair amount of, I think I have three or four shares, you know.

The timetable is going to be as long as everyone expects it to be. I think it's just massaging its innings. Well, yeah, you're backloading them because you want it to be in your rotation in the playoffs. Yeah, I have other ones that won't surprise anybody. I have four shares of Dean Kramer. Four shares of JP France. JP France is a little bit like Kramer where I'm like, hey, do you know that he led the league in strikeouts the year before he came up and struck nobody out?

I think, you know, and what he did in the minors for France is he used the breaking balls a lot. And then he got to the big leagues and I don't know, maybe gave him a homer off a breaking ball or something and just went to the change up a ton. I think he still has those breaking balls. I still believe in France. Um, I've got four shares of Trevor Rogers, uh, three of Grayson Rodriguez, uh, three of Joe Boyle has walked everybody this spring.

Yay. Super excited for those three shares. In the defense of Joe Boyle, at least he kind of showed you that flaw before. No, I knew, I knew you knew going in. And I didn't spend big picks on those. Those are, those are some real late picks. Um, some higher ones that might surprise me. I have three of Kirby.

Um, when I could get him, I got him. Um, and then he, and then three of Verlander where I just think he's good. And I know he's a little behind, but I put him a little bit more towards the two weeks, you know, than the four weeks. I don't, you know, there was never really an injury announced. It was just that he's behind. So, uh, I, I like, I like Verlander there. And here's one that may really surprise people.

I haven't talked about him a lot. I have three shares of Michael Soroka. Yeah. Maybe we've talked about him a little bit, but I think he's changed his pitch mix. I don't have spring training stuff numbers really, but the strikeout rate is way up this spring and he's got all the road he can handle.

And I'm going to give him some of it. He's still only 26 years old after all the injuries and all the missed time and did it with different stuff and got great results. But this might be a path for him to also miss more bats. And we've talked about it. The White Sox need him to take the ball as often as he's physically able to. So no pressure. If things aren't going well for a stretch, they'll keep letting him start.

I think so long as he's healthy. So yeah, good, good kind of late riser, I think in draft season is someone who became a bit more interesting in March than he might've been throughout most of the winter. We'll get to a few more players. I'm sure at some point, maybe the players we regret not having once the season officially starts. One last thing is just, I have three hitters here that do some things well.

And I'm just like, what have you added the next thing? And that's Ty France, MJ Melendez and Parker Meadows. I have three shares, each of those. It's like you do some good stuff. What if you hit the ball a little bit harder? What if you struck out a little less? What if you did this, you know, so I like taking guys with medium ceiling, too That's the kind of thing I do is like these guys have medium floor medium ceiling I don't expect any of them to be stars, but

Their prices are pretty low and you know, they you know, they do stuff They probably play too. Yeah. No, I think those are all pretty intriguing options where they go mostly after pick 200 and I think Melendez is going to play a lot. He doesn't have that catcher eligibility in most leagues anymore, but I still like what he brings to the table. Hits the ball very hard. Could unlock a little more power this year as part of that improving Kansas city lineup, we are going to go on our way out the door.

A reminder, get a subscription to the athletic for two dollars a month for the first year, the athletic dot com slash rates and barrels. Join the discord. The link is in the show description. Be sure to like this video if you watched us on YouTube. Subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't done so already. Schedule for the rest of the week. We're on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, Friday live with Trevor May at one o'clock

Eastern. We got that back on the calendar pretty much every week, all season, barring some unforeseen schedule related stuff that comes up and I don't have any stuff on the schedule. It's pretty, pretty consistent around here these days. So that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. See you next time. Bye!