Rates & Barrels - Spring injuries strike, our biggest misses, and Lance McCullers Jr.'s new deal

Episode Date: March 26, 2021

Eno, Britt & DVR discuss a difficult week of spring training injuries, including Eloy Jiménez, Zac Gallen, Kirby Yates, and Nick Anderson, the new deal for Lance McCullers Jr. in Houston, some of the biggest misses, and more.  Rundown 4:17 The White Sox Lose Eloy Jiménez For 5-6 Months 13:13 Zac Gallen’s Unusual Stress Fracture; Our Plea for Universal DH 18:27 The Jays Lose Kirby Yates 23:23 Nick Anderson’s Injury 30:02 Lance McCullers Jr.'s New Deal 35:25 (Some of) Our Biggest Misses 47:17 Time to Shorten Spring Training? 54:15 Tarik Skubal & Casey Mize Make the Tigers' Rotation 60:51 Does Command Improve with Age? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Please fill out our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/athleticaudiosurvey Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Friday, March 26th. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris, and Britt Giroli back with us on this Friday. Lots to get to. We had a terrible week for injuries. Someone turned the injuries back on for the upcoming season. So we'll talk about Eloy Jimenez and Zach Gallin, Kirby Yates, and Nick Anderson. We're going to talk about some of the most exciting teams to watch in 2021. We're going to dig a little deeper than San Diego, I promise. We're all going to watch San Diego, but who else are we going to be tuning into once these games begin to count? We had a piece from Eno asking a question I've wondered about for a long time. Does a pitcher's command improve with age? We'll dig into that as well. Britt, welcome back. How was Arizona? Oh, it was great, guys. I got to say, I had heard so much about how great it was, and it lived up to the expectations.

It's sunny. You don't worry about rain delays. You can get to pretty much every complex within 40 minutes, which is remarkable for those of us used to the, you know, three hours drive across Alligator Alley in Florida. Obviously not normal. You weren't able to talk to most players. You didn't have the access with COVID. But I can see why people go to Arizona and get just a lot of stuff done. You could ideally go to a camp in the morning and go to another game in the afternoon without missing a beat. And I think that's

so valuable um so it's really cool camps in two days for sure and i saw you hiked it's good i did i did it's great it's great you know i've always been more of a mountains girl than a beach person myself i don't know how you guys feel about this but i get bored of the beach after a little while i'm not a huge fan of sand it ends ends up everywhere. So I'm definitely more of a mountain person. I look forward to going to Arizona again next year. That's for sure. Really, really a good time. Hopefully, I could see Eno out there and we can have drinks and be able to be like a normal Arizona spring training, right? Hopefully. Yeah, I'm even hoping to go there this fall. For Arizona Fall League, it used to be a regular trip,

and it hasn't been, but I would love to go there this fall and go to the Fall League. The Fall League is great, too, because it's just all the best prospects in one place, and it's a fun time. Yeah, maybe it's the year to get an airbnb for like seven weeks and just be there for the entire fall league maybe that's the year to do that because then it's like move get it all out just get all that wanderlust out in one shot even in a place that's familiar get all the hiking done do the two-a-days for the fall league games you know watch playoff games at

night like there's a lot of a lot of good things about Arizona at that time of year, especially. How'd your wife feel about that if you just spent seven weeks in Arizona? Yeah, I wouldn't have to bother coming back. Yeah, I was going to say the locks would be changed. Who's that? Who's at the front door?

Yeah. Yeah, things are going really well right now. My wife's finishing her dissertation, so I'm very stressed out because she's very stressed out. So I just want to get away from the ball of stress that is my little slice of the world, which is a two-bedroom apartment.

Yeah, in March. I'm fun busy with drafts and things, but then I'm also busy, busy on top of that. It's a lot right now. So the idea of seven weeks of waking up, drinking a cup of coffee while staring at a mountain and watching two baseball games sounds incredibly relaxing to me right now.

Maybe even three with the playoffs. Yeah, I'll pull the Grant Brisby. He was talking about his kids were doing Zoom school back when the pandemic started. And they were complaining to him like, Dad, the internet's running too slow. And he's like, I'm watching four baseball games at once and levitating. And my kids can't do their actual homework and their schoolwork because I'm using all the bandwidth. But that's where I want to be. I want to be like Grant without the parental obligations. I

think that's the sweet spot. Let's get into some of the news items, though, from this week. Eloy Jimenez probably out for all of 2021. It's not confirmed yet. It's five to six months with a ruptured pectoral tendon. So if you're optimistic about the White Sox, do you say, six months, they could be a playoff team. Maybe he's back when it matters the most. It's possible. And I think the problem they have right now is their internal options are pretty limited. We went through every team and talked about depth on this show. And the White Sox were a team that we liked in terms of all their starters, but they didn't have a really interesting bench. So they're particularly vulnerable to losing a middle of the order hitter of Jimenez's caliber. So I'm going vulnerable to losing a middle-of-the-order hitter

of Jimenez's caliber. So I'm going to run through some options. The internal options, Nick Williams, who's in camp as an NRI. Adam Ingalls hurt right now, so he's not an option. Lurie Garcia is a utility guy. He could play more. And Billy Hamilton, I think, is around as an NRI right now. So a lot of defensive options.

I mean, Nick Williams on paper is kind of interesting. They are going to play Andrew Vaughn in left field in a Cactus League game on Friday. So that's also part of the internal group of options. You're seeing free agent rumors. Puig, Braun, and Cespedes all thrown out there as possible fits. And then, of course, there are eight teams, as many as eight teams interested in trading for Mike Tauchman, the kind of spare outfielder for the Yankees, thanks to their reunion with Brett Gardner. So I think it's probably going to be a case where it's someone not in the organization who leads the White Sox in playing time in left field this year. But what do you guys think happens in the short term?

Is it an immediate trade, or is it trying to hold it together for a little while and seeing how things play out in the first few weeks of the season before making an actual move? I don't see how you can hold out. Do you guys? I mean, you've got an AL Central that's going to be good. If you were the NL Central where no one's really trying,

you could maybe try and piece it together like the Cincinnati Knights are under the bus yeah i'm sorry i wrote a story that like mentioned in passing that like four people when i was in arizona were like what are the reds doing and man the reds fan base is an angry bunch say what you will about you know the nationals the orioles those people are the yankees fan base uh yeah the yankees like Like, you call the team out, and it's correct, and they're all for you. But, like, you say something bad about the Reds, you would have thought that the team was on track to be the Dodgers. But anyway, I think the White Sox cannot afford to wait around because this could be his whole season, right?

We are saying August as a tentative thing. This could be his whole season. And also for the White Sox, you've got a twins team that you know is going to be good. You can't really afford to wait and see and fall behind and have a really bad month or two while you figure it out. The only response I have to that is that, you know, the NBA trade deadline just happened. And you don't trade for LaMarcus Aldridge uh i'm sorry if you don't know who any of these players are it's basketball i like basketball but you don't trade this you don't trade for lamarcus aldridge because you know his team will buy him out so uh for example

with the talkman thing you could just wait and and probably the waiting game with the yankees and be like well you got two. I could use one of them. I'm not going to give you anything for it. I'll just wait until you have to cut one. So I'll just go into the season with Nick Williams, and Billy Hamilton replaces Adam Engel, and Nick Williams replaces Eloy, and Vaughn plays DH,

and I'm going to pretend like that's good enough, and then, oh, look, I get a free Jay Bruce. Right? And now I, and now I move Vaughn to, to the left field and Bruce plays DH or I do. I play some games. There's going to be a class of players that becomes available in the next week.

Why won't you just sign Josh Reddick? It's a, he's got no leverage. He's got no other jobs. I mean, there's the, there's the, there's like,

yo, there's Cespedes, Puig, Reddick. Yo and Puig with Tony La Russa is a nightmare waiting to happen. I think you have got to realize that, right? Probably. Two uncontrollable personalities in that clubhouse, which already we think is going to be either really good or really bad under Tony La Russa, such an old school guy. Why not just sign Josh Reddick? If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out. He's

not going to command a ton of money. He has no leverage. It is a week from opening day. Does Yo really have that same reputation? The guy packed up his hotel room and didn't tell the Mets he was leaving. Yeah, I guess. He injured himself chasing a wild boar.

Yeah, exactly. And Puig, for those who aren't aware, is being sued in court, in criminal court. I've covered Puig. I've seen it. I've seen it. If I'm the White Sox, I don't have depth. I kind of see your point, you know, but I'm going to argue with it. Didn't you guys miss me?

Welcome back. Exactly. Welcome back, Brittany. i just don't understand why you wouldn't just do that if it doesn't work out okay then you go on the trade market then you evaluate your options so who's the trade you want you want to trade for talkman no i don't trade i add josh reddick and then if he doesn't work out the yankees are sitting on basically a guy who's not playing not doing anything then you make a. Then there also could be other guys available at that point in time.

I mean, the whole landscape, and I think we're going to get into this later, is very quickly, it's been like injury riddled this last few days after a fairly quiet spring. So to me, if you're the White Sox, why not just add a guy who you know is serviceable there? They don't have any great, if they had a serviceable option,

none of those names Derek listed inspire any confidence in me. And also, how are you replacing a 30-plus home run guy? You're just not. And the nice thing about Redick is that he makes contact. So, you know, if there's – the worst case scenario, he's putting some balls in play, and the rest of that lineup is pretty good, except some of them strike out a fair amount. So you put a guy in there who can make contact and keep the ball moving while the other guys you know

swing and miss and hit homers you know i'm kind of curious to know what happened to nick williams exactly he had a 110 wrc plus in 2017 he was at 102 in 2018 both of those seasons in philly 2019 spent a good chunk of the year at AAA, was well above average, a 141 WRC plus, a little old for the level as a 25-year-old, and just could not make contact in very limited chances with the Phillies in 2019. He's probably a little better than your typical NRI given the big league track record. So to Eno's point, I do think you could probably hold it together a little while if you don't get a deal you like. If you get something you like better sooner, every game matters in the AL Central. I would agree with you, Britt. It's a three-team race. Maybe the Royals

hang around and make it a four-team race, depending on how some of those veteran moves they made hold up and how aggressive they are with some of their young players. You can't afford to wait long, but I feel like Nick Williams has been forgotten about as a former second-round pick whose big league track record actually isn't that bad. I think you use Lurie Garcia as your backup center fielder. Yeah, well... Backup shortstop, backup center fielder.

If you do that, then you can go more offense, and you don't have to keep Billy Hamilton. Then you can keep Nick Williams and acquire somebody you have for offense. Because you're trying to replace the offense more than anything. You're not trying to replace the defense. Right, yeah, exactly. That's interesting.

Yeah, that's another avenue. It's unfortunate because he's just a fun player to watch. This is a guy who could have been an AL MVP, legitimately. Yeah, definitely that good of a hitter. I think their projected win total, by the way, according to fan graphs, is 84. Looking at the rest of that division, it is very, very close. Cleveland sitting at 80. That's a little surprising.

The Royals at 77. And the Twins are up at 87. They may not have a wild card as a consolation prize. True. I mean, I would assume that at least one wild card comes out of the AL East. Agreed. And then I would say that the AL West

probably produces a wild card. So it may be one or done in the Central. So yeah, every game may matter. So I'm open to that. I just wanted to point out that, you know, as cuts happen, they may be able to snipe somebody from a deeper team as they make cuts.

That's true. This is an interesting time. I'm glad you mentioned that because there's so much movement this last week here, right? Guys who don't make teams, guys who have opt-outs in their contracts where they become free agents.

This is going to be an interesting like shuffle around here. And I don't know about you guys, I'm still adjusting to who's on what team because I feel like 2020 was surreal. I'm constantly watching a game and I'm like, oh, they got that guy. I'm finally catching up and there's going to be a flurry of moves here. So pay attention. The other big news item, well there's a few, but the other really big one that's really sad from a young player perspective is Zach Gallin has a hairline fracture in his right forearm. This actually happened, I think, when he was working

on some kind of hitting activity. I don't know if he was bunting or what exactly he was doing at the time, but... Jammed by the pitching machine. That's like me getting jammed in BP by Andrew Vaughn's dad. It's a little embarrassing. Yeah, it's just frustrating

because it's yet another pitching injury that didn't occur while pitching. And Gallin, of course, for his career so far, has been spectacular. A.278 ERA through his first 27 big league starts. A.117 whip. Easy to see him as the best starter in Arizona. I think we've recognized that.

Dark horse Cy Young. Yes, like that kind of ceiling. So I think he's a lot harder to replace, even though Arizona's starting pitching depth is a little bit better than people might give it credit for. I'm a big Corbin Martin fan. I think, Eno, you are also a big Corbin Martin fan. So my hope is that he'll get an opportunity sooner than he would have otherwise.

But losing Gallin takes the very slim playoff hopes, which would be miraculous wild card in Arizona, and just about eliminates them. It's a really weird injury because they haven't ruled him out. He pitched through it. He pitched the whole game through it. And they haven't ruled him out. He pitched through it. He pitched the whole game through it. And they haven't ruled him out for opening day, and he's still throwing. At the same time, there's a fracture in there.

It's a fracture that's not in a place that would, it's not a pitching injury, right? It's a fracture from hitting. So it's just in a different place. But he said it hurts when he throws his breaking ball. It's a little bit like an oblique thing where they just, I think they're just going to wait until it doesn't hurt and then he can yeah and so with an oblique you're it's frustrating because you're like well give me a timeline well i don't know man

it's like i wake up and i i toss a little bit i try to throw a curveball it hurts try again tomorrow or take three days off try again in three days so uh you, you know, we're just going to be waiting. But I think, Martin, I think it would be safe to say that Gallen loses at least a couple starts from this. Stress fractures, too, are really small and sometimes don't require a cast. And if they're not separated, if it doesn't separate from the bone at all,

rest is like the only thing they tell you to do. And it can maybe not take that long, you know, because bones actually heal better than ligaments is what I gather. Yeah. Well, the thing with the stress fractures, though, and you mentioned the oblique, which is a good parallel, is you run the risk every time you test it of re-injuring. Yeah.

If it's not fully healed. Here's what I think. Here's my first thought about this whole thing. This guy is going to become the absolute poster child for why pitchers should not be hitting anymore because i think there was another issue with another pitcher where he who was it earlier in spring like running the bases or whatever and he ended up being okay but uh you know why are these guys taking swings in the batting cages right why are these commodities why are these starters doing these things that very clearly they're not preparing for anymore?

I think you can make the case that, you know, these guys are athletes and they should be able to do both, but I think it's very clear that hitting is such an afterthought for them. It's not a big part of most guys' regimen, even in the NL, where it should be. And in the AL, certainly not. I remember two, three days before they played interleague, the Orioles pitchers for the first time would be hitting. And it's like, what could go wrong there?

Everything could go wrong there. I think you look at Gallant. Max Scherzer practicing bunting and broke his nose. Exactly. I think as much as they want to hit and as much as it's just not – the game has become – starting pitching has become so exhausting, right? You know,

you've talked about the, the V lows that people are throwing at and you know, the, the between start regimen has become such a thing that they just simply do not have time to also become hitters. And it's just a hazard. And I think this gallon situation is absolutely going to come up when they negotiate the new CBA and decide probably on the universal DH. Because a team like Arizona, this is a huge blow.

And how could you prevent it from happening? Well, he could not be taking swings in the batting cages. You know, pitchers also specialize from such an early age. We're talking about high schools where most high school leagues have DHS and your colleges are mostly DH and so you'll have players I tell the story a lot but there was this player Andrew Suarez who came up with the with the Giants and his first at bat in the big leagues was his first at bat since school. So he'd had like six years, seven years where he hadn't taken an at-bat, like a single one. And the announcers were like, let's see how this goes.

That's when they tell you to stand up there and not swing. Exactly. Just see some pitches. It's just the rookie of the year. It's Henry Rowengartner stepping into the box and basically just don't get hit. Just don't hurt yourself and everything will be fine. But yeah, going that long without taking it at bat

would be almost impossible. A couple more injury items to get to. Kirby Yates is likely headed for a second Tommy John surgery. By all indications, his only season in Toronto isn't going to happen at all. And you've talked about Jordan Romano as a fallback option for saves in the Blue Jays bullpen. I was surprised to learn, I was reading, I think it was Ken Rosenthal's piece from sometime this week, the Braves had actually worked on a deal with Yates and decided not to follow

through, not to complete it because of concerns with his arm. So had I known that prior to learning it this week, I probably would have been a little less optimistic about Yates staying healthy all season and taking over that ninth inning role in Toronto. He arrived and said, I feel about 85-90%. Then he threw in the 93s. I don't have a single share

anywhere. I was worried about that one from the get-go. Good eye. Good call. The Jays, I think, are fine pitching depth-wise. The Thomas Hatch, Julian Merriweather love on our podcast probably exceeds that of anything. Oh, yeah.

And then the guys that are kind of interesting, Tyler Chatwood in short relief is fun. Like, you don't always know where it's going, but Tyler Chatwood has really good stuff. Trent Thornton's healthy again. I like him a lot more as a short reliever than as a possible starter. David Phelps is there. Yeah, Ryan Barucki lariano like they got this got a decent mix of names so losing yates hurts i mean you always want to have that lockdown great late inning guy if you can find an extra one to add but they didn't have a bad

bullpen before they added him so i think they're going to probably find some way to still get quality from that roster spot. I'm just kind of curious to see who it is that emerges to do it. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. I think obviously the Blue Jays, and I think Ken had this in his story with the Padres, like you knew this was a possibility, right? You knew this was like not a likelihood, but you knew this was pretty possible. So I think Toronto did a good job in having some backup plans.

To me, what's also unfortunate is George Springer has got the oblique strain, too. So there's like a bunch of things going not the right way for Toronto. Because as Eno mentioned with oblique strains, those are pesky. Those can be four to six weeks. Those can be a lot longer than you realize. Grade two is right there in the middle where it's not terrible, but it's not a small thing. So, yeah, I mean, to totally take your question and spin it all the way around here, Derek, I think they do have some other options. I am very concerned about some of the injuries going on around camp, and I wonder if it's a precursor to what we're going to see this year because of the 60 game season right are we going to see

unprecedented injuries because the last few days has has given me some trepidation uh regarding what's going to happen here um coming off of everything that happened last year yeah depth is going to be really important. I got bold predictions coming out on Monday, and for that I did a look at, you know, how many bodies, you know, how many good pitching bodies people have. But I think on the hitting side it's just as important. I mean, that's why Marcus Simeon was such a big deal for the Blue Jays because, you know, he can't play the outfield,

or maybe he can, he can't play the outfield, or maybe he can, I don't know. But even if he's another bat that they can move around, maybe they can play Biggio in the outfield with Rowdy Tellez. They can play Teoscar in the outfield. They can survive some days without Springer. They're less ready, I think, on the pitching side to weather any more injuries. But the best teams like the Yankees and the Mets and the Dodgers and the Padres all have multiple options, veteran and youth,

at the back end of their starting rotations. Multiple options on the infield and the outfield, and problems like the Tauchman-Bruce situation where they may have to jettison somebody, but at least that means that they have a full roster. It's great to have Tauchman. If you have Judge and Stanton on your team, I think you need to have Mike Tauchman. Yeah, given their respective injury track records, that absolutely makes sense. Now, the other issue, I think, for the Jays, they have some pitching injuries in the rotation.

We mentioned Thomas Hatch. He's got an elbow issue. Apparently, it's not UCL. Nate Pearson is hurt right now. Robbie Ray is day-to-day. He fell down some stairs, I guess, and bruised his elbow. So, you know, that's obviously a little bit of a concern because they are not deep with starting pitching. As much as I think they have enough quality relievers, their starting pitching depth is very, very suspect.

The other AL East reliever injury, though, was Nick Anderson. This one popped up a couple nights ago. It was in the middle of an auction. He came up. Someone paid like $15 for him, which is kind of a lot. And it's interesting because we found out kind of as this was happening that he had just had a bad spring appearance and he was kind of talking about it. His elbow wasn't right. And now he's going to miss at least the first half of the season. Reports as of Friday morning are saying that Nick Anderson is not

going to pitch until after the All-Star break. And he previously had a PRP injection in his elbow. And I don't know if that was really widely known. I did not know that. Given that he really tapered off in the postseason last year, especially, you know, there was definitely a reason for concern entering spring training. The raised pitching depth is something we talk about excessively. We talked about it pretty much every day for an entire month at the end of the season. What do they do to close out games?

I mean, that's the question everybody wants us to answer. And frankly, I don't think we know. I don't think anyone actually knows because they use so many guys to finish up games that it's probably going to be a little Diego Castillo. It's probably going to be a little Pete Fairbanks like it was in the postseason. It might even be Colin McHugh once in a while or Ryan Thompson. Three guys could end up with 10 saves in the Rays' bullpen. Or seven guys could end up with five saves.

And I wouldn't be surprised by either one of those outcomes. Shane McClanahan. Yep. Chaz Rowe. I mean, there's a lot of options, but they use their bullpen more than just about any other team, right? So as deep as they are, I think any injury, any hit to their depth is significant just because of who they are, right? They're built on the openers.

They're built on, hey, let's take Blake Snell out in the fifth inning, no matter what type of deal. So I think, you know, I don't think they've announced if he's getting surgery or not, right, Anderson? I think they're saying no. Okay, but certainly it's, you know, being out through the all-star break is a significant hit. And when you're trying to spread the load around the way they do,

it's such a bullpen-heavy team, you wonder. I mean, they have such a good farm system, so do you see some of their younger arms promoted early? That would, to me, be the Rays-esque way of doing it. Either that or picking someone off the scrap heap who nobody wanted, who all of a sudden is throwing 98. That's another Tampa Bay Rays scenario. I mean, Jane Green is still out there.

I wonder who's going to sign Jane Green. I thought maybe it'd be the Braves again, but they didn't. If you're just looking for an R, maybe the Jays sign Green if they've still got some money. Maybe the Rays do. It wouldn't be crazy. If I had to pick one, I mean, Fairbanks look pretty good. I think probably Fairbanks. The thing is, though, if they are monkeying around with arbitration values and and and how these guys are going to be paid then i guess it's diego castillo because he has the most saves on his ledger and so he's already getting expensive maybe good point is that why they is that also a tactic as to why they're spread they spread around because they

would they would never admit it sure Sure. It's interesting, though. I think it's one of the benefits, but I think the other reason, the bigger reason, is just getting the right matchups to win. I think this is closer to managing the bullpen optimally for the sake of just getting the best hitters out when they come up. Not entirely,

hey, let's save three or four million in arbitration costs by not having one closer. That's just a side benefit. That's like the cherry on top of the Rays bullpen management Sunday, but it's not the ice cream in that Sunday. As far as injuries go, I don't think that they...

I don't actually think that the way they use their bullpen leads to injury. I don't think that they... They're not out there throwing guys out of the bullpen 85 innings in the way that Scott Proctor was used. I mean, that was 85 innings. One tonight, one tomorrow, one the next day, one day off, one again.

When a Rays reliever gets 85 innings, it's much more like a starter. It's like a mini starter. It's a guy, he goes three, he gets three days off. I think that they actually do care about injuries. I just think that a lot of the players they get are low command relievers with injury risk already. That's who they acquire. Why could they get Peter Fairbanks so easily?

Because he couldn't stay healthy. He'd already had two TJs, I think. So that's why they got Peter Fairbanks so easily? Because he couldn't stay healthy. He'd already had two TJs, I think. So that's why they got Peter Fairbanks. Why did they get Luis Patino so easily? Because he has no command. You know, why did Glasnow come over so easily? He has no command. And no command, guys, there is a slight link there to injury. So I think they get underdesired arms and make the most of them and give them opportunities. Fairbanks could still be in the system in Texas and not be being used because they might still be trying to make them a starter or whatever. So I think they give people opportunities. They also use them, I guess, and maybe they get injured.

But I think believers also get injured a lot everywhere. So I don't blame the Rays for injury. On the arbitration side, I do think that part of what they do, even on offense, will lead to depressed salaries. If you are Brandon Lau, if you're Mike Brousseau, if you're somebody like that, you're not getting full playing time. Arbitration is how many plate appearances do you get? How many innings pitches do you get? That's the first question. The second and third questions might be strikeout rate, something like that. They don't get that deep. But the first question is always how many plate appearances do you get? How many innings pitches do you get? How many innings do you play in the field? And what are the Rays going to do?

Mitch you around, move you around. So you're not going to ever get that expensive. So that part might be on design. And I don't love it, but it's the system. Brent Honeywell was back in games this week for the first time in 1,281 days, according to Cespedes Family Barbecue. Four surgeries in that span. Talk about a guy that has gone through hell on the injury front

and would be a really nice story to possibly get him, even if he's a reliever at this point. I mean, I think that's more realistic expectation to say, hey, come out, throw 95 in the pen, and be a multi-pitch reliever, and you've got a spot in the late innings. That wouldn't be all that surprising if he can stay healthy and contribute at a high level here in 2021. All right, let's get to Lance McCullers Jr.

He signed an extension with the Astros this week. The Astros were also in talks with Carlos Correa. It doesn't look like a deal is coming together between those two sides at this point, but McCullers gets a five-year $85 million extension. I think the tricky thing here, I mean, for McCullers, if he's completely healthy and pitching at his ceiling, the open market could have brought him more, but given his injury track record, there's probably a pretty strong pull to go ahead and take that five-year deal. What are your thoughts on this?

Is it about right given all the factors we're talking about here, or should McCullers have pushed it and taken his chances on the open market? Well, I think clearly you're betting on yourself if you're going to be on the open market. Durability has been a factor for him, as you mentioned, and that's something that's really important when teams are investing all this money in free agents. I think if you're an injury prone guy, you just don't have the market that's there. And certainly for a guy like McCullers, you know, Houston knows him better than anyone else.

They know if he's healthy, he's going to be that mid rotation type of guy. So I didn't have a problem with the deal. I thought it was a fine deal. It was good for both sides, more or less. The Astros, interestingly enough, stay under the luxury tax threshold, right? It doesn't kick in this year, which was important to them as well. Um, I also think we're coming on a time where the Astros window is just going to end soon. So McCullers is just going to be kind of that steady presence that maybe carries them through

this next rebuild because, you know, you've got a roster that certainly the core of that team is mostly gone, if not kind of past their prime now. The Astros are in that really weird spot here. So I thought the McCullers deal was a fine deal for both sides. I wasn't super excited about it either way. I don't think Correa gets done. I think he's the guy who probably tests the market. That's just my own opinion.

He said that. He said that yesterday, basically. Oh, he did. Well, you know, Carlos has been in lockstep. Preparing to be somewhere else. I forget exactly what he said, but everyone's like, oh, I guess Correa's not signing an extension. Well, that shortstop market, we've talked about this a lot, right? If Lindor signs an extension, I mean, that only helps Correa

because there could be more teams that are after him. But he'll also be in a mix with a lot of people. The one thing about Correa is that he could put together a platform season. I don't think he has really put together that season yet where he's healthy the whole season and he's performing at his best. so there's still a chance that there's another really great season in there and i think he could jump off of that and get better than the 6 and 120 that he was supposedly offered so i can understand why korea might do that he's also a position player so you know uh i think if he had a full healthy season he could could make the argument that, oh, look, I've been mostly healthy. All this me being hurt, it's overblown.

Whereas McCullers, if he's healthy this season, people will be like, well, that's the first time you were healthy. You haven't done 150 innings before. That was the first time. I can't give you a Cole or a, you know, even if he'd had a really good season, I can't give you one of these big contracts because you only have one year or two years now, 150 innings. And if he doesn't make 150 innings,

then he's looking at like, Oh, well, we'll give you like two and 30 or something and see if you're healthy, you know? So I, I, I,

it's a little, it's a little bit different sledding for pitchers versus hitters out there. So I can, I can totally see this. As for the Astros and core and stuff, I hear you on the offensive side. The weird thing is that like, I could see them like having a pitching strength now. Like, I hear you on the offensive side. The weird thing is that I could see them having a pitching strength now.

I'm kind of a big fan of Javier Garcia. I did that wrong. Luis Garcia, Christian Javier, Javier comma Garcia, Urquidy, and McCullers as a pitching core. Maybe they turn around now and buy hitting to supplement cheap pitchers. So if they pull that, and like it's been really hard. The only teams that stay competitive year in and year out stay near the luxury tax and have these sorts of ebbs and flows where sometimes it's the young pitching,

sometimes it's the young hitting. I'm talking about the Yankees and the Dodgers, basically. And so if the Astros pull off the magic trick, the magic trick is their pitching is good and young and cheap, and they start spending on hitting. You're right. Yeah, that's true. It's kind of like the Indians, right? They seem to always have pitching because it comes from within the organization.

But they're a small market team who never can really afford or claim to afford to support the rest of the team. So they languish in that maybe if everything goes right, we'll be good land. But we're not a 100 loss team ever land. Yeah. No, you're right. They do pull the magic trick a little

bit. It doesn't reach the same heights because they don't live near the luxury tax. They don't actually spend like everybody else but they do pull the magic trick of being of being competitive most years my my fantasy teams by just as an aside are often run like the indians i always have pitching and i'm always trying to trade pitching and i always trade pitching for hitting and my hitting is never enough so do you give Francisco Lindor away too? No, I did. I have given away people in the past.

I have a terrible Mookie Betts trade on my – it haunts me in my dreams still to this day. It's so funny you bring him up. So I was at dinner with a couple of scouts in Arizona, and they were kind of going around the table talking about their biggest misses. I think I might make this an article because it's kind of fun, right? Like what player did you miss on?

And one of the guys was like, yeah, Mookie Betts thought he was an up-down guy. And it's like, can you imagine? What a miss. But, you know, there's also great success stories too. But I thought nobody ever admits they're wrong. Certainly not writers. It'd be really nice just to be like, you know what? I was wrong about this, this, this, and this.

It might be kind of fun. No, I like, one of the things that i really respect about keith law is he you know he usually has a piece uh the guys he was wrong on um you know i tried to at least in this podcast admit uh you know alan webster i hate you alan webster no i don't hate you alan webster as a person i hate Alan Webster as a concept. That was the days before I understood that command mattered. It's just interesting. I mean, DVR, can you think of anyone offhand who you were like,

this guy's not very good, who ended up being ridiculous? Yeah, there's got to be somebody I didn't like in the top of the pool right now who I wasn't sure of at all. It wasn't Mookie. It wasn't at that level. I mean, I'll admit when the Brewers traded for Jelic, I thought they were just getting a guy that was going to be a really steady one or two hitter, good OBP, good power.

I didn't think he was going to be an MVP. So I feel like that's a small miss on my part for not expecting him to take one more step forward. Man, who is the best player in the pool right now who I didn't think was going to be good? That's a great question. I always think about pitching. So right now I'm looking at the top,

and the guy that I probably was out on the most that's in the top now is Lucas Giolito. And I think, you know, in my defense, I think, think you know i look at stuff and i look at movement numbers and stuff and like when he came over from the nationals all the stuff that he supposedly had went away so he did not have a high riding fastball he lost a bunch of velocity the curveball wasn't good by movement so i was like none of the stuff that he supposedly has is there and then he goes and finds his old arm slot and works with his old pitching coach. And now when I look at his movement numbers, I'm like, oh, yeah, there it is.

Now I feel like a dumbo. But there was a time when I thought him and Reynaldo Lopez were both not going to work out. And I was only half right. I got one, a good recent one. Shane Bieber. When Shane Bieber first came up and I looked at his profile, he reminded me of Mike Fiers on paper. And I said, he's a command guy.

He's going to chew up innings. He's probably a number four, number five starter. High home run rate. And probably the kind of guy that he doesn't walk anybody, but his stuff's not good enough to be in the zone in the big league so the home run rate's gonna go through the roof and he's gonna be like a really frustrating guy because in some metrics he's gonna pop but he's just never going to be that good and i mean could i be more wrong like shane bieber is incredible and in your

defense i didn't see that coming for now he's 94 now. And when he came up, he wasn't throwing 94. And when he's in the minors, he wasn't throwing 94. Yeah. It's hard. On paper, Shane Bieber, he came up around the same time Joey Lucchese debuted. And I watched a video of both and looked at him. Lucchese's kind of funky. He's got this robotic delivery.

And I don't really know where it's going. But to me, they're both in the same cat, even though they do it different ways. They're both the kinds of guys that you don't even like from a fantasy perspective unless they're pitching against a bad team, and they're not going to be anything more than that. They're streamers. They're up and down off the roster in fantasy, and they're good for real-life teams, but never guys we're going to be excited about. It's kind of funny that Lucchese has become one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, so I was

kind of right on that from the beginning, but I was so wrong on Bieber that I don't feel any sense of satisfaction about being right about Lucchese. I always remember the guys I pumped up that didn't work out, like Michael Fulmer, man. Hmm.

How about you, Britt? Who's your big miss from the last five, ten years? So, well, I mean, part of this is because I was around that team every day. But, like, the Trey Mancini you just kept hearing was a 4A guy. And what's interesting is because nobody thought he was going to be anything, the Orioles, nobody, like, nobody was super impressed with him in spring training. He seemed like the quintessential hit a bunch of home runs in spring training, get exposed at the big league level. Because of that, they signed Chris Davis to this mammoth deal. And now they're stuck with Chris Davis. And it's all because they overlooked Trey Mancini. And nobody could blame them. I mean,

you just weren't super impressed by him. And I mean, now he's a terrific story, obviously. But he had to go to the outfield so they could create a space for him because they overlooked him and signed Chris Davis. So it's fascinating when you look at like who you overlooked and then what the ramifications for each team were within that as well. And I remember even a Baltimore, Zach Britton was a guy who almost got DFA'd that one spring he was out of options because, and you kind of, same thing with Bieber, he didn't look right. He didn't have the stuff. He was short-arming his delivery. And scouts were like, this guy would easily clear waivers.

And then, of course, now he goes on to the Yankees, gets $50 million guaranteed. So it's fascinating. I think people don't realize, one, how hard it is to evaluate players, and two, what a moving target it is. Yes. Because – That's the huge thing. Yeah. Like a Giolito thing.

You never know who's hurt. Yeah. I feel like I was right given that information. Now I look at him like, yeah, he's good. Yes. Congratulations. Good job. Who are you talking about with the 50 million?

Britain. Britain, yeah. He almost didn't make the team his final year and he looked terrible and so i think it's just fascinating maybe i'll eventually do an article like we were all wrong and everyone has their worst mistakes in there because it's kind of fun to to sit back and admit it um it's just funny that scout totally owned it he was like yeah mookie pets i thought he was an up-down guy at best i mean can you imagine writing that in the minors he didn't show that same power like we i think if you didn't think he had power you'd be like well he controls his own well but is he a true second baseman yeah yeah well and it's i mean i imagine like looking at jose altuve and turning him away multiple times when you're at the complex in Houston,

the Dominican complex for the Astros. They told him to go home multiple times because of just his physical stature. That was their only reason. He keeps showing up. He just keeps showing up. He keeps hitting dongs. Shut up. Go away. Why is this little guy

here hitting the ball all over the place? We didn't even invite him, and he just keeps showing up every day for these workouts. Raking. Yeah, it's like Dustin Pedroia. You can't tell me that everyone thought that guy was going to have the career he did. That's a good point. It's interesting.

You know who I don't believe in at all right now that some people like is Nick Madrigal. I know the batting average is great, and he makes a ton of contact. I just don't see it with Nick Magical. I've had a hitting coach tell me he thinks that the bat will be knocked out of his hand. Yeah, I mean, I get it. He'll just fill up the zone, and he won't be able to do anything with it.

That's how I feel about Carter Keboom with the Nats. Just not impressive, and I don't see it getting better. I think there's something too. Exit velocity can be fetishized and stuff, but if you can't hit the ball hard, then your avenue to value is

just so slim. That's the thing with Mookie Betts. They didn't think they could hit the ball hard. Then it's just walks. Just walks doesn't even really work that well because if they're not afraid of you, they'll fill up the zone and they'll get more confident. And then it's even harder to get the walks. Kind of circling back to where this sprung up for a second. If we've believed in Carlos Correa for the last three or so years, have we been wrong the entire time because of injuries?

Are injuries a fair out clause for saying, I think this player can be a 30-homer guy, middle-of-the-order bat, fantasy, an early-round pick? If you miss because of injuries, do you just get a free pass? Or is Carlos Correa someone we're actually wrong about when you look at some of the per-game numbers over the last three seasons? I mean, he's had pretty ugly power output in 2018 and in 2020. He slugged.405 in 2018. He slugged.383 in the shortened season. Like, there are... Yeah, but 30% above average for his career with the bat.

He's good. I think he's really good, but I keep drafting him year over year, and I keep getting less than I expect. So I don't know why I keep falling into that trap. I think it goes to what Britt's saying. It's just really hard. It's a moving target. How healthy are they when you get your look, and how healthy are they after that?

I said that with the Tatis thing. The biggest risk for the Tatis signing is not that he's not good. It's that he's just not healthy all the time. Right, and he breaks down at the shoulder issue that apparently he's had kind of lingering for a little while. Apparently that's been there. The team was like, we did look into this. They looked at it.

We did just give him $300 million. We looked at this. They must not think it's that likely that it gets a lot worse, but it's there. It's still something you have to be mindful of. I mean, yeah. I think, look, I think Carlos Correa, where he's going in fantasy drafts this year, is the type of player that helps you win a league because he's so affordable and he could be

a $30 player. He could be a second or third round pick going to next season. You get him in the seventh or eighth round right now. You get him for 10 to 12 bucks in an auction. That's a huge profit. He's in the heart of the order. The lineup is still good. And Houston's future, a lot of it, and they've got the young pitching, a lot of it's tied to the health of Jordan Alvarez. Jordan Alvarez is a special hitter. I don't think there's even an argument against that, but I am terrified of a player in his early 20s with bad knees already.

We're talking about a guy that doesn't even have to play defense, and we're worried about him staying on the field. There's a lot connected to just how healthy he is in the next few years as far as the overall track for the Houston core. Yeah, that's sort of how I feel about Tatis. Yeah, we knew about the shoulder injury. Okay, okay well he's like 10 years old his shoulder already hurts i don't know that's a position where you're gonna throw a lot you're gonna be in the action a lot you're gonna i mean now you're gonna manage it for the next 10 years as all three of us know once you hit your 30s i mean it's totally downhill i mean every ache and pain your back hurts i I mean, your back hurts just from sleeping. So I don't know. If you're not young and invincible and bulletproof and you're already

having some aches and pains that early on in your career, I am alarmed. I don't care who it is. Yeah. But I guess that apparently there's also some of the stuff that he's gotten is he's gotten from growth spurts while you're being athletic so like the back injury he got apparently is something that happens to people that are super athletic and then grow while they're being athletic so it could just i think that's what they're saying is he'll just grow out of it like he'll just now he'll be the same size the rest going forward like he's i don't know it's it that's how it was explained to me the back thing was that it was common among people that grew up and it didn't have bad outcomes but you add it all together it's not just the back thing he's had a thumb thing back thing shoulder thing i'm not i

don't i'm not here to poo-poo on tati's future let's all let's all let's all think rosy thoughts about his future one thing though that i think about when i see this is spring training is too damn long man like why man why are we doing this why i understand that the players aren't aren't paid and so the owners can get some some um some windfall from this i do i did actually get pushback i when i was saying this um recently to a team exactly he said well the pitchers do need six weeks to get stretched out and i said well you know you ask them do you have you give them programs when they leave right you you're you're in touch with them pitching is like a year-round thing uh and he's like he's like

yeah maybe with the older guys but like depending on the younger guys to show up stretched out enough to throw three innings or something, I think would be a bad idea. So I guess the pitchers need six weeks. I don't know. I think if you told all the pitchers, here's the throwing program. Start in February. We want you to show up ready to throw three innings. You could have a three-week spring training.

Yes, except here's the flip side of that. I would agree with you, Eno, except I had dinner with someone in Arizona who was a team executive, and they mentioned the fact that what I didn't realize, teams can't make guys do anything in the offseason. Yeah, not officially. Not officially, and there's no blowback for not doing it, right? No official blowback. So what you can't say is, hey, we need you to do this, this, and this, and show up being ready to pitch three innings

because you're going to have these wildly different things. Now, players know that and understand that, and there is a big push apparently in the next CBA for players to be paid for these off-season programs. If you're going to say, hey, you have to go to Eric Cressy's We Need to Fix You, you have to go to Driveline We Need to Fix need to fix you. You have to go to Driveline, we need to fix you. Those players should be paid and put on programs. And then you could shorten spring training.

Then you know what all these guys are doing. Then you have control over these investments. At least do per diem and housing, right? Right. At least make sure that they're paid for, that whole thing is paid for. I think that would be huge because you're asking. I do too. You're talking about Latin kids coming over that have no money and and driveline

costs money you know like you gotta help them do this you can't just be like right you know and this is also a direct consequence of that bs these guys are seasonal apprentices in the minor leagues and you know so therefore we don't have to pay them on a yearly salary because they only really work three months out of the year. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You get what you paid for, man. Yep.

And what people don't realize, they pushed the minor leagues back a month this year. That's another month that the lowest played employees are not getting paid. The minor league guys are not getting paid another month.

Yeah. So they're supposed to show up to camp totally in lockstep, right? In shape, ready to go, whatever, when they had not getting paid another month. Yeah. So they're supposed to show up to camp totally in lockstep, right? In shape, ready to go, whatever, when they had not gotten paid. Many of them have had to take care of their families during this time, had to find another source of income.

But they're supposed to show up as pro athletes a month later and be ready to go? And the cutting of the minor leagues, what happens is, what I've heard mostly will happen is that they'll just have more complex ball right they'll just have more people at the complex like apparently the diamondbacks were notorious for this and had like 85 kids at the complex right and there's no teams there quote

unquote right so there's nobody being paid it's extended spring training extended training is free you know and and yeah okay you house them and house them and you pay and you give them food. I understand that has value. But it doesn't like pay the cable bill. You know? Like they have to have some other source of income to live. Unless you just want them to be automatons. They play baseball.

We put food in their mouth and we put them on a bed. And that's their life. I mean. Yes. That's what they want, I guess. The guys who live in the DR, are they supposed to choose between seeing their families during the offseason and staying at the complex where they don't get paid just because they get food? Right. That's insane.

Right? So they're expected to go to the DR, not get paid, but still be in shape and spend all the money on this, this, and this. the DR, not get paid, but still be in shape and spend all the money on this, this, and this. And so I think I would welcome personally, and I know a lot of players would, the CBA getting them paid in the offseason. And then you can mandate offseason stuff. It's a win-win. Then you can mandate that these guys follow these programs. And then you can actually control what they're doing in the offseason. And you don't have guys showing up to camp 20 pounds overweight, or you don't have a Victor Roble situation where he thinks he needs to add muscle, and in fact he looks terrible and nobody wanted him to do that.

You can eliminate a lot of this stuff in these offseasons for guys. They are year-round employees, man. They totally are. It's a year-round job. This is not the 1950s. Nobody's shoe-shining in the offseason. Just make it work. Just build the structure around

the game that pays people for the full year but then you're also training the players yourselves you're not relying on people to do things on their own that's where the game seemingly has evolved to that also opens up things structures like the playoffs and spring training

for more collective bargaining type discussions right because now you're a year round employee and spring training for more collective bargaining type discussions, right? Because now you're a year-round employee, so spring training is on the table. It's something we can talk about. If the players really are passionate, I don't even know if the players are passionate. I think hitters would like spring training

to be three weeks long. But maybe pitchers are okay with it. I don't know. But nobody likes not being paid for it, partially. But if you just say, like, okay, it. I don't know. But nobody likes to not be paid for it, Parshina. But if you just say, like, okay, we pay you for a year. Like, this salary we give you is for a year. Right. Then there's more negotiation about, like, what can we put in there about,

will you pay for me to go to driveline every year? Will you pay for me to go here? Will you pay for me to go to Cressy's thing? Then you can put that in your contract, right? And then so now that everything's on the table and everyone knows you're not a seasonal apprentice. Yeah. Exactly. We're way past that.

We've gotten way off topic today, but it's been a really interesting discussion. Like, what if our jobs tried to pay us and we're like, well, we're only going to pay you for when the season's on because you're a baseball writer. It'd be weird. It'd be a little weird. Yeah. I award you a 100 for that segue. Fantastic. I'm here.

I'm here for these segue. Fantastic. I'm here. I'm here for these points. I don't know what I can redeem them for, but I would like to collect them and hopefully redeem them for something of greater value down the road. An NFT of me doing 100. Do it one more time. One more.

100. The impressive thing is that it comes out correctly on the screen, too. You actually drew it right for my look. You didn't draw backwards. I had a little bit of time to think about it. You did have a little bit of time to think about that. But it's important. We have to pay bills here.

Very important. Some fun news I wanted to get to as we get ready to go. The Tigers are going to open the season with Tare scoobel and casey mize in the rotation they're going to put michael fulmer in the bullpen he was touching 96 this week so you know you may have been wrong about him a few years ago you know but he might be pretty fun working as a reliever they're going to put matthew boyd jose urania and julio terran as their other three starters for now spencer turnbull opens the year on the il matt manning probably not far away from joining the mix as a starter so i haven't seen this in research and i wonder if somebody uh has the time to do it or if i will but um what i have noticed with guys that transition to the bullpen from starting is that they don't

always get the full velocity boost in the first year. There's something about training to be a reliever versus training to be a starter. So I think maybe next year, Fulmer would be a very interesting acquisition for someone if he's, I don't know where he stands on his contract, but next year would be an interesting time to see can Fulmer throw 98 in the bullpen?

Because one of the things was his changeup was never that good and his command is bullpen. Because one of the things was, his changeup was never that good, and his command's not that good. One of the things that kept him from being who he is. But dude, as a reliever, 98 with that slider, I think he could be very good. Yeah.

I mean, here's what's cool, guys. The Tigers aren't going to win this year. They're not going to probably win next year. Probably on a closer to a three- to four-year plan. But there's people to watch. If you're going to be bad, you should be entertaining. You should at least give your fans a reason to come to the stadium. Whereas the Orioles, I really struggled to find a reason where, you know, we live in the Baltimore area still.

And I struggled to be like, you know what, let's go buy tickets and see. Matt Harvey. Yeah. Right. Like, what do you got there i guess felix hernandez is a fan favorite he might have he might have uh been fun but he would he was throwing 83 rather why don't you give younger guys a chat why don't you give michael bowman a chat a chance you know as opposed to running out uh matt harvey and felix hernandez i i i agree with you and i just did some research for these bowl predictions,

and I mentioned how many arms that are projected to have above-average ERA does every team have. And number one is the Mets with 21, and number 30 are the Orioles with seven. There's a little bit of bias there because of the ballpark, right? I used ERA. I could have used some sort of park-adjusted ERA. However, I think it does actually kind of capture the issue in Baltimore.

They're turning out some interesting bats in, you know, Hayes. I like DJ Stewart. You know, there's some guys coming up through Santander is fine. They've got some some guys coming up through. Santander is fine. They've got some other guys coming up. I like using El Diaz still, but there's a lot of outfielders, a lot of bats without maybe a position to go to.

I like Kramer and Aitken a little bit, but there's still this weird thing where you're like, shouldn't you guys have more prospects by now? They're getting close. They're just like another year away from giving Adley Rutschman that shot and letting Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall have spots in the rotation. I bet D.L. Hall is really happy that we call the injured list the I.L. now, by the way.

That's just a horrible, horrible name for a pitcher. It would be a living reminder for me to call it the I.L. Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall are both interesting, but I don't see them getting into the big leagues this year. That's the problem. If you put those guys in the mix and then have Means and Aiken and Kramer, Bauman, whoever else you want to mix in, that's kind of fun starting five. Could they be in the big leagues if they were the Tigers?

If they were just like, okay, let's put them in the big leagues. Could they be in the big leagues? If like, if they were the Tigers, if they were just like, okay, let's put them in the big leagues. Could they be in the big leagues? Maybe. They, I mean, pitching is different. You can't, you can't wait forever on your pitching.

If your pitching is ready, then just let those guys pitch in the big leagues and then put the other pieces around them. That's what a farm director was saying that the COVID, one of the things that had blown up his idea of like where he should put people. And he said, if my pitchers have Major League

pitch grades on them, if we're giving them Major League ready pitch grades, then they should be in the Major Leagues, probably. That's true. But there's always the complication of they're not going to be any good. Isn't there something to be said to learning at that level rather than... And also,

as an organization, you have to sort through these guys i mean i i that's a mean way of saying it if you if you're pro player i'm generally pro player but not everyone's going to work out so you can't just hoard prospects and in the minor leagues and not use them and be like oh when we finally play all these guys will be good no because some of those guys won't work out and you didn't go through through the process of figuring out who's going to be good. And you didn't get a minor league system last year to even see, so you really have no clue.

Exactly. So I think on some level, you've got to start playing guys and start seeing if you're building something and start seeing if you're putting something together. The worst case scenario is you misjudge by a year or two on each end and you have to do some trades.

It's okay. If you produce quality major leaguers, you can trade them for other quality major leaguers. It's okay. Not everything has to be about that sixth and seventh year of team command. How many teams are good for seven years in a row? Not many. Can you imagine how much egg on your face you'd have if you called up Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall too early? You'd just look like

such an idiot. You'd get laughed at at all the GM meetings for the rest of your life. Who could deal with that sort of humiliation? No, of course not. It's ridiculous. You should promote your good prospects this year. Watch every other team screw up their development because they're hoarding players. Have to DFA guys that they shouldn't DFA.

And then pick up those guys. Get your good guys the big league time and just be there ready to collect the guys that everybody else screws up on because teams are just clinging to everyone. Why do the Padres make so many trades all of a sudden? Some of those guys were approaching DFA, and they had been hoarding to some extent.

They kind of did okay with it, though. I mean, I think they traded a bunch of guys. They did what they had to do. Also, AJ Peller wants to win. You can't say that about every GM. He wants to win more than anything else. And it's not always the case, unfortunately, around baseball. Well, more on the most exciting teams to watch in 2021

in our next episode together. Kind of part of our season preview. But a couple more things as we step out the door. A hearty congratulations to Gio Gonzalez on his retirement. I've seen a few writers say that Gio was a friend of the writers during his time in the big leagues. So all the best to him as he heads into retirement. And there's actually a connection here to a piece that Eno wrote this week asking the age-old question, does a pitcher's command improve with age?

The first lines of the story were my hypothesis. Like, oh, if you do something over and over and over and over again, you have to get better over time, right? Wasn't necessarily that straightforward, though. No, it didn't end up being that straightforward. And it is really interesting that, Gio, one thing that he said that i should have put in the piece was that um he thought that command of secondaries improved over time so that there is something to be teased out

there possibly because we do have command plus by pitch type so maybe a fastball command stays relatively steady but secondary pitch uh command goes upio said you don't throw your secondaries a ton in bullpens. Right? And so if you're not throwing your secondaries a ton in bullpens, you're not practicing them except in game situations. So the only way to really improve you're not going to improve it much in the offseason

if you're just working on the fastball command in the offseason and stuff like that. He said that basically his changeup and remember when geo came in he was supposedly didn't have the command to make it you know that was the knock the command was so bad that he wasn't going to be able to make it he he got a lot better at commanding a secondaries over time and he said it was just throwing them a lot in in in games but they also see with geo and with other pitchers, you know, I brought up, you say Kikuchi, because as you get older, your stuff gets worse.

And so you start either putting a new pitch into your repertoire or you have injuries, you're compensating for an injury. And so there are these things that made it not so clear. It looks like command only improves a tiny bit. And either that's because you have innate command and you can't really improve it that much, or it's because as you're improving your command, your body's getting worse, your arm slot is dropping,

your lat is hurting or whatever it is. And so you're always compensating. And so it's not always clear that command gets better over age. So there's just a lot of different like new pitches, injuries, new coaching strategies. There's all these different things that can impact how your command plays out in games. And so I don't know. I thought it was a fun piece to sort of actually in the end explore why it wasn't more clear the command

improves over age that was super super interesting i would definitely recommend people checking it out because you know digs into those nuances and those stats better than anyone i know so definitely worth your time maybe we'll crowdsource our most exciting teams to watch in 2021 i'll put it out there on Twitter in the form of, aside from your favorite team, what teams are you most excited to watch in 2021? We'll get a feel for who everybody out there is excited

to watch this season and who we are excited to watch this season. If you want to get in on the Twitter fun, I'm at Derek Van Ryper. She's at Britt underscore Droli. He is at Eno Saris. You can always send us an email. Ratesandbarrels at the underscore droly. He is at, you know, Sarah, so you can always send us an email rates and barrels at the athletic.com is the best way to get that to us. And as I mentioned earlier,

$1 a month gets you in the door. You want to read, you know, stuff, Brit stuff, all of our fantasy baseball coverage, the athletic.com slash rates and barrels is the way to get that special offer.

That is going to wrap things up for this episode of rates and barrels. Good luck with your drafts this weekend. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.