Rates & Barrels - Spring Job Battles of Interest, Part 2

Episode Date: March 5, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss several spring battles for rotation spots, including the potential for a 'secret' six-man rotation in Tampa Bay, Casey Mize's bid to stick in the rotation for the Tigers, Ben Brown's chances of breaking camp as a starter for the Cubs, Year 2 enthusiasm for Jordan Hicks as a potential sleeper in San Francisco, and much more. Rundown 0:00 Intro Starts 1:48 A Secret Six-Man Rotation Coming in Tampa Bay? 12:03 Watching Kenta Maeda & Casey Mize Closely This Spring 20:30 Competition for the Final Spots in the Twins' Rotation 31:04 Will Ben Brown Break Into the Cubs' Fifth Starter Spot? 36:30 Let's Make the Dodgers Sign Another Pitcher! 44:37 A Sleeper (or Two) in San Francisco? 54:46 Odds & Ends: The White Sox, Angels, Braves & Padres Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Wednesday, March 5th, Derek and my friend Eno Saris here with you on this episode. We take a look at some job battles for pitchers jockeying for rotation spots this spring. It is a related episode to the position players battles that we talked about on the Tuesday episode. We've got more position players battles that we talked about on the Tuesday episode We got more position players to talk about later either at the end of this show or later in the week We're gonna get to them nonetheless a lot of ground to cover today But a few housekeeping notes before we get started you could join our discord using the link in the show description also, be sure to smash the like button on this video if you're watching us on YouTube and

If you are in the area or can make plans to be in the area come to one or both of our live shows later this month at Bear Bottle Brewing Company. It's the Bernal Heights location. March 27th, March 28th, 430 start time both days. March 27th of course is the stateside opening day. The Giants are in Cincinnati that day so we'll be there watching the game and then potting afterwards so we're excited for that coming up here in just about three weeks coming up quick already you know yeah excited it's gonna be fun I'm gonna be in Arizona next week so hit me up if you're around let's try

to melt the laptop this year if possible, or your forehead. Yes, we're gonna have to talk about how we pod. It's definitely at least one travel day in there. We're gonna save that for behind the scenes and not do that during the actual show. Let's start our picture job battles in Tampa Bay where I like how spicy you made this one. You think there might be a secret six man rotation developing for the Rays and I think there's some evidence to suggest that you may be right.

So let's take a look at the projections from oopsie where Taj Bradley actually has the highest innings projection. I don't think I would have guessed that just based on the quality of the other pitchers in that rotation. At 160 he clocks in first, Shane McClanahan right behind him, Ryan Pepeo, Shane Baas, Zach Littell, and Drew Littell and Rasmussen at 132 and 127 respectively. You think about the number of Tommy John surgeries and injuries this group has dealt with collectively. A six man rotation does make a lot of sense. Have we seen indications from Kevin Cash

or anybody in the front office that would confirm your suspicions that this in fact will be a secret six man rotation? We have not and I think some people, I think most people are treating this as a real battle. It's kind of hard to see from their spring training usage because they have 11 people with starts including Mike Vassel and Joe Rock. I like that name. Joe Rock. Connor Siebold started a game. So I mean with a split squad sometimes you'll have just a reliever start the game, especially the away game.

So I can't really tell from what's happening. I will say that Shane Baas getting three innings in his first appearance is notable because that means he's ahead. I mean, that means there's no like, oh, maybe Shane will start the rotation or the bullpen. You know what I mean? that means there's no like, oh, maybe Shane will start the rotation or the bullpen. You know what I mean? Like it's, there's no question he is a starter and he got three innings. Rasmussen got two in his first start. Taj Bradley got two and a third. Some of this is

how, you know, how efficient they are, but McClanahan got two and Littell hasn't started yet. Hasn't started a game yet. Has he been pitching though? I haven't seen him pitch because I haven't watched any Ray's Spring games yet. I'm not seeing him. He has not pitched yet. Well that's odd. I guess there could be an injury that figures this one out. Well the important thing here is if there is a battle, who would be the odd man out in a five man rotation if they're all healthy, right?

That's the lingerie question. They have options, all of them. And so any of them could get optioned and you know, even Zach Littell, nope, Zach Littell does not have an option. So if he's healthy, I think he's in. And that means that Shane Boss, think gets sent down just because Drew Rasmussen I mean he's good and he had a rotation he did nothing to lose it all he did was get injured you

know so I think you could say hey Shane let's work on x y or z in the minor leagues and you'll be up here in no time. That's what I think would happen, but I guess I'm leaning towards right now, just this discovery that Zach Lattell hasn't pitched, that maybe Lattell, they're slow walking him, and they're gonna start him on the IL for some reason. Yeah, I think this can turn into a six-man rotation, though.

It seems weird to me that they would use Buz that aggressively innings-wise, and considering that he was pitching well despite Not having his stuff all the way back last year that he'd be the odd man out That's a it's a tough sell for me If you switch over to the bullpen and start to think of this as a full staff you have 13 Pitchers you can use you have five in the rotation That means eight reliever spots Fairbanks, Uceta, Clevenger, Rodriguez is four.

You know, I think Biggie makes this team. I think Mason Montgomery might make this team. That's six. Mike Vassel's out of options. Alex Fido's off options. Maybe that's your eight. But Fido and Vassel are not so good that you can't say, you know what,

I'd rather have Rasmussen count as a reliever, but give me bulk, you know, give me, give me basically starts three, four inning starts every sixth day. Shane Baas doesn't get used as hard and Shane McClanahan's innings get stretched out. That's the sort of thinking that I had about why they might do a six man rotation. There's nobody here that you wanna put down for 180 innings and say they're gonna make 30 starts and I think that everybody on this rotation

could benefit from having an extra day of rest. Yeah, I could definitely see it just based on the histories there and interesting too, when you look at the way the schedule begins, the Rays open this year with the Rockies. They get the Pirates in their second series. They have off days. They got day seven and day 11 of the season, so they can pretty easily,

you know, work around. Brian Smith says Littell is scheduled to start on Saturday, which OK, good. That's that means he's maybe not hurt, but it also is weird that Shane Boss already has three innings in his pocket and Is going to maybe start a second time before Littell starts the first time that would suggest that Baz if anything If anything Littell goes to the bullpen. They could use Littell as a long reliever. That's that's not out of the question Brian Smith says Baz starts Friday. That's his second start when might go four. Do you think spring training rotation orders matter within the context of if they'd still line up

with the start of the regular season accordingly? They try to map everything out where the guy who's gonna go on opening day is on regular schedule. They're announcing opening day starters right now. Yeah. You'll see it, you'll see it in the news. And another thing that I saw was

I was watching Zach Wheeler against Will Warren yesterday and Ranger Suarez came in as the second starter behind Zach Wheeler. And they noted that that was weird. And they said that the Phillies are slow walking Ranger Suarez, but would never admit it. And the way that you could tell was that he didn't start the game and he came in against the lesser players and he came in this late in the spring.

So I think that I think the announcers were right on that one. I think that you can tell a little bit by the order in which people are pitching, how many innings they have, how many innings they have is a big piece of signal that the team is giving you, right? Yeah. How many innings they're willing to let them be out there? How much, you know, how ready they think they are, you know, how invested they are in them being starters.

If you've got a guy who could be in the bullpen or could be starting and he goes out there and throws three innings on March 3rd or whatever, I don't know, it, probably not a reliever. And thinking about the schedule just for the Phillies, this is the important thing to look at. Early season schedules because of makeup days for opening days and home openers,

they're full of off days. And you can be a little more careful with pitchers that you want to be careful with because you don't need a fit starter usually until the second full week of the season in most cases. The Phillies open at the Nats. They're off for the makeup day built in on Friday. Finish out the weekend series. They open at home against the Rockies the following Monday, but they're off again Tuesday in case of a possible rain out, right? So they do have a few off days built in. They have five consecutive games from April 2nd to the 6th.

So if you're just starting to pitch now, you're fine. Yeah, but Suarez may not start until the second after that off day. Right. He'd probably come sometime in, come into the rotation sometime after that Tuesday off day. And everybody has enough time right now on March 5th, as long as they're not a Cub or a Dodger. They have enough time to, and even Cubs and Dodgers, like how they,

we saw last year that that series was managed more like a, almost like a playoff game where like, you know, guys went three innings, four innings, and there was a lot of bullpen usage because you knew you had a lot of rest again afterwards. Very heavy bullpen usage. So I think if there's a loser in that raise group, even though he wouldn't get bounced from the roster,

it's probably Zach Littell. I think his skills are also the most concerning moving out of the trop So I don't I don't really like the tail anyway for fantasy purposes But I think the fact that he's out of options does matter in terms of his stickiness to having a roster spot We're using the fantasy section of the what is it the oopsie projections with the fantasy dashboard and it had like Rasmussen for like 19 starts and 15 quality starts. And I'm just like, Rasmussen's not a good pitcher in quality starts.

I'm sorry. Like there's a lot of five and dive in his history. And that was when he was healthy. And I think, I think he may have some four and five and dives again. That's how he, that's how he was healthy. And I think, I think he may have some four and five and dives again. That's how he, that's how he's memory transitioned from the bullpen to starting that way where it was like four. And then by the end of the season, he was kind of doing like five and a third and

quality starts. I think, I think most of those guys are not good starts because what'll happen is if they have Littell, they'll have like a very excellent six inning starter, six inning pitcher. So they can bring the telling in the six a lot for either Shane, for Rasmussen, whatever it is. Yeah, lots of options. Let's talk about the Tigers for a minute. Their situation really has two open spots temporarily because Alex Cobb is working his way back from a hip injury which he had an epidural injection for in late February. It doesn't sound fun and we've talked about Alex Cobb's million injuries like it just

like an epidural for him he's like yeah whatever it's as much as anyone could be on one of those. So what's left is Casey Meis who looks a lot different this spring, Jackson Job who we talked about a bit and cater Montero kenta Maeda who's still there on a somewhat sizable contract Maybe that plays into this equation a bit too and then Matt Manning who I think was my pick for AL Central sleeper reliever I think we're approaching that point where the switch gets flipped on Matt Manning and Matt Manning reliever becomes something we get excited about but as far as the back end of this rotation goes with the extra spot available while Cobb is down who are the two that you think get these last spots? Well I don't want to breathlessly report spring training velocity but let me breathlessly report some spring training velocity

that'll blow your socks off. I'm holding on to my socks, it's cold here. Calcitines. Hey, Quinta Maeda is throwing 92 miles an hour. Oof, socks came off anyway. 92 from Quinta Maeda? Yeah, 92. This is a guy who was struggling to crack 90 last year. He also has eight and two-thirds innings already, which might be like a cross

spring training leader. Let me see if all teams do. Does he lead all spring training innings? He does. He leads all of string training and spring training innings by one out over land interrupt. I wouldn't base any argument just on something as silly as 92 miles an hour and leading the spring training any injuries, but I am. But I'm also going to mention that he is out of options and he's not the kind of guy that I think a team would be willing to let go. And I also don't think he's that much of an option in the bullpen. If he is, he's the bulk guy and it's not very exciting. It's not like his days in LA where he was a little bit more,

oh, I mean, there can be your seventh or eighth inning guy or I can be a starter, you know. This is a little bit more like I can be your second or third worst reliever or I can be your fifth starter. So I think Quinta Maeda is in, especially when you consider the fact that their other starters are so young. I don't think that it'd be devastating to the Catermontero if he had to go down. Catermontero has also worked between the bullpen and the rotation. So you could keep him up. You could make that transition for Manning.

I just don't think that this all lines up that Jackson Job is making this roster. I think that you want to see, yeah I think you want to give Mize, you know, quote unquote one last shot. It's fair given he's 1-1 and he's been making changes to that mix. And he's pitching really well. I mean, he's five innings, five strikeouts, no earned runs, you know, in terms of starts. He's already got two starts. So he's ahead of Manning in that regard. You know, Kater Montero doesn't have a start yet and he has two appearances in three innings. So that looks like a reliever to me.

And so if you put my's and my's in, then Job's not in. Now Job does have five innings in two starts. So he's doing pretty well in terms of usage. Four strikeouts, five innings, giving up some earned runs, two homers. I don't think that spring training homers are gonna be the reason he's not making it. I just think that it's going to be like politics.

It's going to be like roster politics. Is that a way to put it? It's like Kenton might as out of options in case he might as gets one last shot at it. Basically. Right. It's the way front offices try to hold on to as many players as they possibly can. Yeah. Right. He's waiting till the last possible minute until you have to make an actual decision to, you know, wave release DFA someone, right?

That's just the way it tends to go. I'm wondering if anything's different, I mean, the V-Load 92 from Maeda, is it just velocity or has he changed anything else with the pitch mix too? Let's see what I can do about that real quick. You know, I'm also interested in, let me see something here, brisky For Los I know that's off topic a little bit. We love off topic 95-7 from brisky. What are that means for brisky in terms of his role? 95-7 is just about where it was last year. I have been noticing that some of the relievers are down and I you know I remember that

one thing that Sean Doolittle used to tell me was that he didn't have his full velocity in spring because he said it was for like slapping asses and saying hi, you know, it wasn't for real competition. Nobody was taking it. No, no, the veterans were taking it really seriously. And so I wonder if particularly relievers are like, if I'm, you know, close-ish to where I was last year, I'll still have another tick or two

once I'm like in the ninth inning, you know, in the regular game that matters. So what I've got here for Maeda is that he is throwing this spring He has thrown 22 sweepers 22 four seam fastballs. That's a little bit more than usual 19 split fingers 9 sinkers 5 sliders and those four seam fastballs are Legit better than last year. He hasn't thrown one

That was anywhere close to last year's average of 90.9. I mean he has like yeah He has a 91 but they're they're clear of 92 a lot. So he has some 93s in there He's a 93 7 to Buddy Kennedy. So I think this is legit I and I know it'll you know, he's gonna stretch out and stuff But I think he'll stretch out and he'll might be 91 plus, you know 91 and a half something like that. He looks healthy and I think he's got that job. It makes him a little bit of a sleeper I think for for deep leagues he's forgotten about it definitely makes some sense We love the ballpark and if that V lo is back and he's got a little more life on everything sure

I think you could do worse in the end game than Kenton Maeda given what we're seeing so far this spring it'd be probably the last picture on your bench in a 15-team league is the highest you'd go for him right now I like him a lot actually an ale only is like a dollar starter or two if you can get him dollar two three dollars even like I like that I think you're buying like a hundred innings hundred something innings some deep deep league goodness potentially with Kentinta Maeda having a bit of a resurgence. And a little bit of a ding for Jackson Job, I do think. This is why I don't have him that high in my rankings.

This is why I haven't projected him for a lot of innings this year. It's not that I don't like him as a pitcher. It's just, I don't know that they're just going to install him and push my edge to the bullpen and push Manny to the bullpen. You know, do all these things. They have to do all these things to put Job in the rotation. It could just take one injury even if he doesn't make the rotation that he's in.

I think they like him a lot. It's just you have to draft Jackson Job and redraft Leagues right now with the expectation of holding him for a few weeks and getting nothing and then having to possibly cut him if that opportunity doesn't open up. That's the window he's in but he's cheap enough where you can throw that dart and then make the cut when you have to if it

doesn't pan out as early as you're hoping for it to work out. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics and definitely a holiday trip and what if each time you made a purchase you got a little something back. With Rakuten you can earn cash back on just about anything you buy from over 750 stores. So if you're looking to buy a new phone, clothes, skincare or a getaway, well, you can get cash back. So treat yourself, family and friends and book that holiday trip now. Start getting cash back today by joining Rakuten. It's free and easy to use,

and you can get cash back deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check. It's the smartest way to shop, plain and simple. Start your shopping at rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. When the frustration grows and the doubts start to creep in, we all need someone who has our back to tell us we'll be okay. To remind us of our ability

to believe. Because their belief in us transfers to self-belief and reminds us of all that we're capable of. We all need someone to make us believe. Hashtag you got this. Let's go over to the twins rotation where I think the back end starters might offer more for folks in maybe even 12 team leagues. I think Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan at the top, very safe.

The number four starter might even be up for grabs too. At the very least, that fit starter spot's out there and it's a combination of Chris Paddock, Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. Festa and Matthews, two guys that really popped in the model last year. Simeon Woods-Richardson, probably the best name you can play in Lodum Scrabble,

trying to maximize points. And I think with Wood Richardson, you have to look at some of the results before the late season fade and say, that he was pitching well enough to, probably does have the inside track to one of those spots. I think he either has to continue pitching as much as poorly as he did at the end of last season,

or have someone clearly be better to lose that job in the early part of the season. Yeah, it's one of those things where if you're using an auction calculator, and here's something that people may not know, I don't actually use the auction calculator for pitchers. What I do is I use it for hitters, and then when I can't decide on a hitter,

or I don't like what's happening ADP-wise, or what's happening in the room, I take a picture. That's your move? That's my move, yeah. So every once in a while I might glance over it, especially now that oopsie has stuff plus in it, I can do some quick glancing and stuff.

I don't generally look at it. But if you do use the auction calculator, I do think that there's a possibility Woods Richardson gets overvalued because they're giving him 26 starts and 130 to 140 innings across the board in playing time. And I guess that's the consensus. Everyone thinks he's just in the rotation, but I see somebody with an 89 stuff plus,

you know, his 93 mile an hour fastball last year, but in the past has been a 90 mile an hour fastball. So I see somewhat, and he had 17.6% strikeout rate last year. And I really like Zebby Matthews and David Festa behind him. So I see that as a soft 130 to 140 innings pitched. And I think that you could get in trouble just putting that in pen. You know what I mean? I may have biased you in the preparation for this by saying that I thought maybe his job is up for grabs, but everyone else seems to think it's not up for grabs and it's only

about the fifth spot. If it is only about the fifth spot, they have a similar roster politics situation where Chris Paddock is out of options. And yes, they can actually pretty easily move him to the bullpen. The bullpen in Minnesota doesn't run so deep that they can't use him. It'll be a question of is Michael Paddock a better player than Michael Tonkin? Those are the two guys who are out of options and would be somewhere around the seventh and eighth relievers. They could keep both if they put out Jorge

Alcala or Louis Varland in the minors, but Louis Varland is transitioning to the bullpen. He has a lot of innings this spring. He has maybe one of the one of the he has the fifth most innings this spring. He's already been on the mound four times With four innings. I think that's a real look at Louis Varland as someone who might be a late inning guy for them Right like a seventh inning guy that puts out a fire comes back and maybe gets a couple outs in the eighth Like I think that's that's a heavy usage Early signal for sure. Yeah, and so if Louis Varland is in, you look at the Michael Tonkin projection

and you'll see all three, seven, three, R.A., Chris Paddock, a four, three, one, uh-oh. But the Chris Paddock projection is gonna have some starts in it. Although it, I mean, it has nine starts in it. So that's half reliever, half starter, or, you know, it's actually more reliever. Do you think they could just

release Chris Paddock? They could but I think they would try him in the bullpen first he's good against righties bad against lefties at least that was the case last year so I think you could use him as more of a matchups guy and pick your spots with him make him part of your bridge add a little depth to the pen have him go a little longer if you need to cover a couple of innings from a short start I think that's better usage I hope we're at the point where they're ready pen, have them go a little longer if you need to cover a couple of innings from a short start. I think that's better usage. I hope we're at the point where they're ready to just move on because I'm with you on both

Matthews and Festa being more interesting. I definitely like Simeon Woods Richardson more than you do. That is the absolute consensus takeaway. That's been the case for a long time. I liked him as a prospect. I'm just wondering if there's something kind of, you know, like the like everything looks the same coming out of his hand, if there's just something in Simeon Wood's Richardson's arsenal or his delivery or his approach that makes him more effective than he should be with those

stuff numbers because he's been pretty good at a lot of stops along the way and he's been young for the level for most of his career too. So that's always kind of stood out to me as something as something that it just works. It works better than it, than it should, or better than you think it would based on how it models out. You've got a point here. Simien's which Richardson is in the 88th percentile for wide arsenal, like surprise factor, 92nd percentile for surprise factor.

So he's a wide arsenal, uses a different amount of pitches. He's in the 91st percentile for movement spread, and he's in the 94th percentile for velocity spread. So I have him, again, I laugh about this, but I just did a straight up average of those four stats from BP, and he is six in that average.

And the person who he's most like, you Darvish and Chris Bassett. Yeah, okay, the Chris Bassett thing kind of makes sense. It's like Chris Bassett, yeah. It might be a guy that can add some pitches and just really keep his guessing. He is a guy that I've missed on in the past. I'm glad to have these because I've tried to keep an eye on them.

But I also want to point out though that ahead of Simeon Woods Richardson and Hugh Darvish are Logan Gilbert, Randy Vasquez, Ranger Suarez, and number one is Pedro Avila. So it's not like a magic bullet. Didn't one of your kids like Pedro Avila? Like was it? Yeah, well they're kind of Padres fans. They just happen to see him start a game

and he pitched pretty well or something. One of those random things. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. That's fun. Like I feel like everybody has random players they liked growing up and then they get older and they look back and go mark Lemke dude Mark Lemke Mark Lemke dude

I loved him trying to remember a couple of the the strange was Travis Freiman wasn't bad Right Travis Freiman was actually pretty good in hindsight, but I thought he was amazing when I was a kid He's like a dinger strikeout guy, right? Yeah, a little bit. Well, any case, I think maybe Zebi might be moving past Festa a little bit. Zebi has a little bit wider arsenal in Festa, and he's been having a better spring. So you might move Matthews, Zebi Matthews into the sixth spot.

I think that can happen. You know, they're both good prospects that came up around the same time. If Matthews is pitching better, he can move ahead. So if Zebi Matthews is the six, and you think they may move Paddock to the rotation at the cost of Tonkin or putting Alcala in the minors, which is a slight cost, you know,

I think they'd like Tonkin, and Alcala would be a pretty good guy to have in the majors. He throws really hard. If they move Paddock, then that's how you get Zebi Matthews into the five spot. I think it'll be a little bit more like the Jackson Jobe situation where Zebby Matthews is going to be in the five spot eventually but it may have to require an injury. I'm just so amped to be wrong about the twins again. Every time I look at them I'm like

they're good, they've got good depth, they've got a good bullpen, they've got a good lineup. If they just stay healthier, a little healthier. They'll be fine and wrong wrong Series of L's over and over not all that wrong. I mean, what are they they were 82 and 80 They just had a rough second half man, then it's putting it. That's putting it mildly They should not should not have fallen that much I think there's a little bit if I I was in that Twins front office, I'd be a little bit stressed about hitter player development, position player development.

I would be really, Royce Lewis is I think a win, but he was also like a really high draft pick, wasn't he? Yeah, he's a first rounder. He was a one-one. Early first rounder. He was a one-one. So I don't know, like you're like, okay, is Brooks League gonna work out? You know, how much credit should we get for Larnac and Wallner? Are they working out?

Like I don't think that Larnac and Wallner have gotten to the place. We're like, oh, yeah Those are major league regular. Major league regulars and we we did that we helped them do that, you know I don't even you can do that yet and Julian I think has been a disappointment of visa via his draft costs and excitement, right and Miranda's been okay. So like, I don't know. I'm not saying they're bad. I'm saying, I don't know. Right.

And this year may tell us a bit more about their player development as an otherwise position players we're talking about, but we got on the twins a little bit. Yeah. No. And I think the next round of actual fair judgment of their ability as an organization is coming soon with Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Kieschel. They're all getting relatively close. So I think if you see that group come up and as a trio, they underwhelm, maybe they crush

it on one, maybe Jenkins is every bit as good as expected, but Rodriguez and Kieschel aren't quite as good as they're ranked in prospect circles, then these questions will only persist for the twins. Let's take a look at the Cubs, where I'm like trying to will Ben Brown into the rotation. That is what I am trying to do. You got Shota, you got Steele, you got Tyon, you got Matthew Boyd, and you got an open number five spot right now Javier Assad's hurts

He's not part of that conversation. They brought in Colin Ray for depth Jordan Wicks is back Ben Brown is the most exciting guy I think by a pretty healthy margin of the names you're gonna find in the mix Can you tell me a reasonable story that puts Ben Brown in that spot to begin the year? Or do you see him getting moved around having his innings managed possibly working in relief having to wait for the opportunity like what's it going to take for Ben Brown to be the number five starter when the season begins? I think he's going to go back down.

Come on man that's not what I wanted. Well you know in terms of starts he's got two appearances, one start. Jordan Wicks has two appearances, two starts. Colin Wray has two appearances, two starts. You bring Colin Wray in on a major league deal. So he's in the rotation, if you ask me. And you've got Wray, St, Steel, Shota have been starting, they're on time.

Matthew Boyd has had two starts already, so that's four. Is that only four? Oh, so then it's Wicks versus Brown for the last one? Well, it's Shota, Steel, and Tyon. Ray's, oh yeah, where's Tyon? Tyon's firmly in. Yeah, Tyon's firmly in, and he's got one start. So I bet you, if I look, he's pitching a day or tomorrow or something.

Right. So he'll jump into that two-star mix. So I think that's your rotation. I think Colin Ray, you bring Colin Ray in on a major league deal. He's in that's as, that's as simple as it gets. Caleb Killian, you know, striking out 10 guys in six innings, pitched with a bunch of hits allowed, you know, and options. He's going to go back down.

Brad Keller has been starting, but I think that maybe he's one of those guys who picks up your last bullpen spot. I don't think he's in the mix for starting. And then Jordan Wicks has options, and Ben Brown has options. And if there is a choice ever between Wicks and Brown, I think they might actually just go with Wicks

because he has the change up, and he pitched 50 innings in the major leagues last year mostly in sort of longer appearances and I'm not making a very good case but. I'm not mad I'm just disappointed. If it did come down to Wicks and Brown there could be a chance that it was Brown. The question would have to be is it for a roster spot or for a rotation spot. If it's for a rotation spot I think Wicks might be a little bit ahead. If it's for a roster spot then Ben think Wicks might be a little bit ahead. If it's for a roster spot, then Ben Brown, you know, is the better stuff for sure. And looking at it again

last year, I mean, Ben Brown, it was 15 appearances with the Cubs, eight were starts get to 55 and a third innings. I think in 2023, he ended up with 92 and two thirds innings. I'm doing the math correctly on the fly between AA and AAA. So there is a little bit of a, hey, if we really like this guy, we need him to be fresh throughout the end of the season, so maybe we build him up a little more slowly. I think there's a few ways it can go, but I'm increasingly, I'm worried about the early season usage for the reasons you've outlined. As much as I like Ben Brown, he is working on a change up this spring, spring which would give a nice third pitch if it's something he can really get the feel for

So we'll see if that comes together. He's thrown four of them. It has 14 inches arm side movement, which is Six inches more than his four seam fastball has six inches seven inches more drop than his four seam fastball And it goes 91.8. so it has a chance to be, yeah, it has a chance to be a real power change-up, splinker type thing. He has a foul, a ground-out, a blocked ball, and a swinging strike. We're getting very granular with the analysis

in the spring training. I mean, it's okay. He threw one middle middle to of any Pascu Tino and got a foul out of it he's only thrown one in the zone. Mmm yeah. That's a bit of a problem. Well we'll see and maybe that'll be the thing they say he has to work on if they send him down and want to keep him stretched out as a starter but I think there has to be some temptation to say let's let's take 120 innings from Ben Brown and shape it where it's 40 out of the bullpen for a while and then flip the switch and let him be the number five starter once you get to

I guess that probably be about June sometime around then hard to roster a guy like that Especially in a shadow league even though I think he has a shadow league ceiling that makes him worth following Let's go to a place we go all the time, the Dodger's Depth Chart, where the eventual return of Shohei Otani means there are two spots open in the back of the rotation right now because we continue to operate under the assumption that when the schedule calls for it, the Dodgers will in fact use six starters

because that's what they do on a pretty regular basis. Gonsolin, Mei, and maybe a few other characters actually belong in this conversation. I think Landon Nack would start on a lot of teams. Bobby Miller, it's an injury may have been the main reason why it all kind of spiraled on him last year. They're the four probably most interesting guys. You got Justin Robleski and Ben Kasparis as like honorable mentions in the competition. But I think with the first four names there for those two spots, you're honing in on a pretty heated competition for that short-term

opportunity to be a starter in this group. Yeah, and I continue to think that Dustin May has to make this team because he's out of options, and Tony Gonsolin is a bit forgotten about, I think in terms of MonkeySphere things, like he's a guy who used to be in the rotation, used to have a solid spot in the rotation and then got hurt.

I don't think you kind of wally-pip somebody like that. He comes back and he gets a rotation spot. That's how I see it. So I don't know that Dustin May will start. That's the question, is what his role will be. But you can just fashion a rotation here where you don't have Otani, you put Gonsolin in the five, you put May in the six slash Penn role.

And I think that what this means for us is Tony Gonsolin is underrated and should be draftable in almost any league. I don't know if 10 team leagues, but definitely 12 team leagues. And you may be near the end of your draft, but I think he's the fifth starter. And that Dustin May is draftable in bench slots and 15 teams and onlys where you're just buying innings and you're hoping that some of them are starts or he's, you know, gets some saves or whatever it is.

But he's going to make the team. So that's the kind of, and you're in a league where making the team is a huge deal, then you can still pick Dustin May. But I can't tell you that I know exactly what his role would be. I would guess that it would be six starter, even though they're saying five starters, but with off days and stuff,

maybe May is just a long reliever. I think the general takeaway I would have too for guys that are temporarily, and by temporarily we're talking about three plus turns, like not just one spot start, but guys that begin the season in a temporary role that have good skills, the first three starts are enough to just say,

let's see what happens over those couple of weeks because someone else might get hurt and that temporary opportunity might become a permanent opportunity. So you're really just going based on skills and the quality of the team. And these are very draftable guys, even if you have to decide to cut them because everyone comes back healthy and everyone who's healthy in front of them, the depth chart stays healthy too in that range of outcomes.

Yeah. OK, I'm cutting a good player, but you're getting such a great deal on both Gonsolin and yeah, May is more of the, has to be in a league where making the team is enough. Gonsolin, 79 career big league appearances, 71 have been starts, it's got a 319 ERA and a 105 whip. Like what else do you want? The one thing you could say is that he's been a benefit

of maybe the Dodgers wide babbip suppression because for his career, he has a 226 babbip and I wouldn't say that it was stuff plus based sort of hit suppression because for his career, he has a 94 stuff plus and a 96 location plus, so the model doesn't really like him. I would ascribe a lot of that babbip to the team. Now there have been some changes in the shift rules that have coincided with some

of his missed time, right? So that's why some of these projections have like steamer has a four six two ERA for him, which seems unfair for a guy's a three 19 career ERA, but the steamer is saying, well, the strikeout rate is unimpressive. The walk rate is mediocre and he sometimes gives up Holmers, and I'm giving to give him basically a 292 babbip. Oopsie gives him a 276 babbip and a 432 ERR. None of these numbers are very great,

but his career numbers are, and so at some point, you look at those career numbers and you say, what if the models are wrong? What if they know how to defend behind him? What if there's just something that's going on there? It's a bit of a load-em kind of approach, but he has that fifth role and you can test it out for a little bit.

That's how I see it. He's done it enough times where I'm just, I'm not, I'm really not that worried about it. I think the question is like, can they lose some of their ability as a team to suppress hits because of the defensive shortcomings that are beginning to pile up on that roster? Is this something we still trust about the Tigers?

How much better will Mookie Bets be as a shortstop this year after rededicating himself and saying that he was embarrassed about his defense last year, they just put him right back in there. The fact that they're doing it again says something, like they must like what they see enough to try it and it could be fine.

I just don't know, are they gonna be elite? This would be very good. That's more of a question than anything else. I don't know for sure, but I trust Gonsolin quite a bit and I'm totally with you. I just think he's been forgotten about as a very capable member of that rotation mix in LA. Long term, it does get a little bit interesting.

You know, I guess Tony Gonsolin could keep that spot, no, Tony just comes back. It'll be weird to have Dustin May, like put him in the bullpen, not have him stretched out, and then want him to kind of do a start when Tyler Glass now needs 15 days or something. You know what I mean? So that's where Landonack comes in.

Optionable guy who can come up and go down. And so Landonack may get more starts than Dustin May this year. Maybe they just make a full decision on Dustin May and say he is now a reliever. The good news here too, Bobby Miller, I got hit by a come backer and is out of the concussion protocol. Very scary situation that fortunately was not worse. He's throwing bullpens, hasn't pitched in a game since that incident yet, but he's getting close.

What do you think the usage is for Bobby Miller this year? Do they use him more in relief? Do they keep him at triple A and just have him on deck in case of a two strike? I think he's battling Landonack for the opportunity. They're going to be, you know, it's him or Landonack when somebody gets hurt. Man, it's just ridiculous depth. We talk about it all the time.

They end up tapping into it more often than not, but the more they add, the less likely they are to have to go quite that deep. Yeah, but also this rotation in particular is pretty, you know, brittle. But it's so good. It just is, it's just, it's incredible. So I think it's just more of a wait and see on a lot of the the Knack and Miller types. It's like, hey, when they get the chance,

if they get the chance, then they become waiver wire pickups. You're not drafting and stashing them outside of maybe like NL only leagues and draft and holds at this point So Saki had an interesting debut the other night. He I thought the fastball didn't look that good But the splitter looked amazing Splitter as good as advertised Yeah, yeah, he got some he got some real whiffs on it and he did sit 98 on the fastball

So the V lo was there but the hitters got some good swings on it But I guess that outings gonna propel that ADP up just a little bit Because of that that lingering uncertainty talked about having Tommy John surgery in the past and stuff took a step back last year Come all it takes is one really impressive spring showing people like yeah, he's okay. He's fine. Yeah, he's good up up Let's stay in the NLS. Let's talk. Yeah, he's good. Pump him up. Let's stay in the NLS. Let's talk about the Giants battle for the final couple of spots.

There's some interesting names on this depth chart, you know, and we've talked a lot about Hayden Birdsong and wondered if there's just one more adjustment he can make to break through, but really it's a combination of Jordan Hicks who is likely safe because of his contract, Kyle Harrison, who was in the rotation throughout last season, Birdsong, Landon Rupp, Keaton Wynn all battling for the final two spots

in this group behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander. So who comes away with the bulk of the opportunities behind their primary three starters that we can very safely write into that rotation. I know that there's a lot of excitement. Lander Rupp right now, like I said, is second in spring training innings and he hasn't given up a run yet and he looks really excellent. He's thrown eight and a third with 11 strikeouts and one hit and he's got three starts so every time you turn on the giants, he's like, you know, he's starting and he's dominating and he's doing it with a new pitch.

He's got a cutter that he told me he'd throw last year. We sat on the show that, you know, I was talking to Atlanta Roupe and he was talking about throwing the cutter. I do think that, you know, there's a chance that Atlanta Roupe is, is moved ahead of Hayden Birdsong on the chart. Just the fact that he's going so deep and he's doing so well, although Birdsong's pitching pretty well too. I just don't know that the Hicks deal is over.

They said that Hicks is a starter. I don't see Hicks on the thing either, so he hasn't pitched, Hicks hasn't pitched in a game, so that's, oh, there he is. He has started a game and gone one and a third with three strikeouts, so I don't know, he hasn't lost anything. I think Hicks, it was the plan, and Hicks is the plan.

And if you put Hicks in, then you're talking about, oh, what are we gonna do with Harrison? And I think you just start Harrison. I mean, Harrison would just have to be terrible this spring, right, and he hasn't been right I think it's his job to lose It's interesting because the prices are pretty affordable on this group even ver lander If you just look at March 80 peas up at pick 340 we've talked about being able to at least use them for the home starts

Maybe he has a little bit of that late career resurgence to where it's like okay. He wants to prove something He's still doing this. Doesn't have to, didn't have to come back. So maybe he went through some changes off season. Great landing point for him. And I think he's, he's reshaping his curve. He says that could be part of it. I think a slight did the slightly different location strategy on

the fastball could be part of it. I think after a season like he had last year, he's probably has a more open mind to changes than he has in the past. That might be really good for him. Plus the home park is just a really good situation for him. We picked him in Devil's Rejects in like the fifth round after 28 keepers and 20 teams. So, like with the 610th pick or something.

Yeah, so I'm happy with Verlander, it lightened things, I think he's a great draft and a whole pitcher, he's gonna give you some innings, you can use them at home. I'm happy with Hicks, although I do notice, we talked about this in the group chat a little bit about how Hicks' strikeout rate does push back on his value in a weekly league.

You're gonna put Hicks in for a start and he might give you five innings, no win, three strikeouts, and be worth less than a reliever that got in there three times and got eight strikeouts and maybe Vulture to win. I'm gonna make a galaxy brain argument. Maybe it's not galaxy brain, probably is, it's my argument.

What if Jordan Hicks is a little bit like mid-career Nathan Evaldi, even earlier career Nathan Evaldi. Remember when Nathan Evaldi kind of broke through as a starter, it was always underwhelming strikeout rates. I think he ran a sub 20% K rate, six straight years in the big leagues from 2011 to 2016. He was hurt, came back in 2018,

and he's been 22% or better every year since. And I say this because I think for a while, Nathan Evaldi threw hard and just didn't get the swing and miss he'd expect. And some of that's movement on secondary, some of that's just the shape of the fastball, all sorts of things that we know a lot more about now than we did back in 2011 when it started for him.

But is there also something to making the move out of the bullpen, going back to a starter's arsenal that just takes a little bit more time? Because the Ross stuff for Jordan Hicks is good. I keep thinking that it's almost like a late bloomer situation, where there might be a little more ceiling, a little more he can still do that we haven't seen yet.

I just wonder if he's going to be less of a liability in strikeout rate situations over time because he continues to tweak things along the way. It's an interesting idea. You'd want him to have, you know, what Yavalt did though was add pitches, right? And he added a splitter, and Hicks added a splitter recently and got so good with it, he could throw it more and basically hid his big fastball.

And I think that there is something to that because what you see with Hicks as a starter was he's running 40 to 50% sinker usage. And then when he went back to the bullpen, it was 60 to 80% sinker usage. So that's, that's where he tends to, he wants to, he wants to 80% sinker usage. So that's where he tends to. He wants to throw the sinker all the time and throw the slider in two strike counts and just blow people away with his VELO. That's who he used to be. And as a starter, you could see that sinker usage

dipped down to 45% if he pushes the fastball percentage, the forcing fastball percentage to 10%. And so he can play around with the knobs on there. I think maybe a cutter or an extra pitch would be nice to hear about in the spring. But just even with the existing four-pitch mix he has, he could turn up the dial on the slider, turn up the dial on the four-seam,

and be more 25, 25, 25, or obviously more sinkers than that. But he could be more of a wide arsenal guy than he has been so far. Even the projections say even more strikeouts are coming, more like 22-23%. If he gets to 23%, that's average strikeouts. Yeah, that's what I'm saying, man, because when you watch him, you're like, this should get plenty of swing and miss. There's enough there for him to work with.

And he really obviously just ran out of gas last year. I mean, the Velo was just going down. And I think that actually makes him easy to pick up. You pick him up, you watch the Velo. If the Velo starts dropping, you're out. Right, and just like Verlander, you're looking at the home park and saying, I'm gonna probably use him at home in deeper leagues,

at least, maybe not in 10 teamers. But I think Jordan Hicks is getting the Lodum tag right now. I think he's in. I think he's a Lodum player I actually like. I can't give it to Kyle Harrison the same way though. I don't know what it is. He's got this weird high spin efficiency, low slot that pitching coaches tell me

it's really hard to teach him secondary pitches. I know he's throwing a cutter now. Maybe the cutter will help him, but even if he has a cutter, he has an interesting fore seam. Let's say give him an interesting cutter. He has a terrible slurve and a terrible change up. How highly should we rate a guy like that?

Not very highly. Yeah, he doesn't have good command either. So I'd be more interested in Hicks than Harrison. And if I'm circling someone that loses their job to Birdsong or Ruperoupe, it would be Harrison, but I don't think it'll happen this spring. I don't really know what you'd do with Harrison long-term if he doesn't pick up velocity either.

You know, if it's hard to add other pitches. Some idea that he had, that his Velo was better this spring, so. That would help. If he'd ticked up even a mile and a half per hour in the four-seam, or he'd get the 94 instead of 92.5, that would help quite a bit. But yeah, man, it's not a profile I hour in the force team. Or you get the 94 instead of 92.5, that would help quite a bit. But yeah, man, it's not a profile

I've been targeting so far. I think I'm with you on Hicks being the later option that I like of those choices. And I love Rup. He has a really good breaking ball. Now he has good cutter. He's widening his arsenal, but he has two options. And I'm a little afraid, despite his usage, either he's gonna options and I'm a little afraid despite his usage either

he's gonna go down and they're gonna be like yeah we want you're like our number one starter if we need one or he goes into the Jake Junis role. Oh yeah the possibility of more pitches lurking there like Junis Junis is just narrowed down it's like I'm a reliever. This is all I'm going to do. Yeah. But Junas has been in between his whole career. He's been a starter. Been, and Rupp has got that great breaking ball a little bit like Junas. Maybe the cutter makes him, gives him what he needs against lefties.

That's definitely what's happened in the spring. He's been throwing the cutter a ton. If you watch him, it's the harder, smaller breaking ball. And it's, it's been pretty good. Rube to me feels like one of the guys that, it was Sean Jelly last year. Every time I watched the Giants in the middle innings, Sean Jelly was pitching.

It was like, oh, here's Jelly, great. I think Rube's more like that, kind of a glue guy on the staff that ends up bouncing between roles, but more multi-inning relief and less full-time starter. It's more like, oh, he's stretched out enough, we need a starter, we had to scratch some money, Rupe's getting the start today.

I think that's probably our lens. And let this be all vibes-based, like you can see that the stuff lost on his fastballs aren't that good. He's like one of these guys with like, I've got a really good breaking ball, and you're like, yes. Yes, and. What else?

Yeah. So we've got time for maybe one or two more job battles. Gonna pick up some scraps from yesterday or do you wanna try to dig into a couple more pitching battles? I think we can leave some hitters for maybe for Friday or for Thursday, but you know, I had some other notes that I thought were interesting.

I mean, like the white socks, dude. Do you know what my note is for the white socks? I have it right here. Do you see it? It says, the first word says, Jesus. Yeah. Yeah. You were not thrilled when you opened up that depth chart.

It's partially because what we're using, and this is a pretty cool thing, we'll put it in the show notes, but John Becker has this roster battle sheet, and he's highlighted The guys are out of options and so he has locks and the reason I respond with the Jesus is he has Martin Perez Is the only lock on the white socks? It's like okay, it's probably right. I don't know

Only the only lock I mean does he have another category on that sheet no So it's almost locks or your locks. Yeah, okay sheet? No, so it's kind of locks or battling. Near locks? Yeah, no he doesn't, he just has locks or battling. So, yeah, so I can see why, if you had to really sort them into two boxes, maybe you'd do that, and maybe it's a comment on the quality, but before I even looked at starts,

and now even having looked at starts, I think Davis Martin, Sean Burke and Jonathan Cannon are just, I think they're locks. Yeah, because Davis Martin was in the rotation last year. Sean Burke was in the rotation to end the season last year. He's got two starts. He's got more innings than anybody else on the team other than Nick Nostrini who hasn't started a game.

So that means Nick Nostrini is pitching against the second wave of hitters, not the first. And that actually means a little bit. And so Davis Martin, Sean Berger, doing everything you ask them to. Cannon started a game, and Cannon was in the rotation last year. So that's enough for me. That does leave one spot, and I don't know

how interesting it is because of the quality of players, but Shane Smith has two starts. Hasn't pitched very well, but he's out of options. So they may just keep him in there because he's out of options. I think Thorpe is coming back from Nastrini, like I said, is pitching against second string guys. So, you know, it's Smith versus Iriarte and Wilson.

I don't even have, I don't even know who Wilson is. Bryce Wilson. Bryce Wilson. Yeah, okay, Bryce Wilson hasn't started a game, so he's pitching against second guys. If I was trying to win this year, I would probably put Bryce Wilson as my five. And Iriaki hasn't started a game either,

so they may just chain Smith because he's out of options and they wanna see if they've found something. And Smith was a rule five pick, so they have to send him back to the team they took him from if they don't keep him on the active roster. Or they sneak him into the bullpen as their long guy. They're so bad they can keep a Rule 5 pick hidden on that roster all season. There should be no headaches whatsoever trying to actually make that happen. With Iriarte and Nostrini, you don't necessarily

wanna keep them on the roster in a weird role because they have real things to work on. Iriarte has five walks in four and a third and Nick Nostrini doesn't. Nick Nostrini has one walk this spring, my God. I guess if he's figured something out command-wise, Nistrini could be the fifth starter and Shane Smith makes it.

And if Nistrini really has figured out something command-wise, then you should be somewhat interested. He has a good fastball, and if he can move the slider into league average territory, he could be a league average starter, maybe. So there's something there, but perfect for the end of the show. Yeah, yeah.

Davis Martin's projection's not terrible. So I could see some deeper league occasional dart throws there. I picked him in Devil's Rejects. I've got shares of Martin. I actually think he's a decent pitcher. Him and Burke are guys that I'm picking for even 15 team league benches.

I want to see what they have. There's some roster battles that people might report as roster battles that I just don't think are roster battles. So my example for this is the Guardians. There's people maybe excited about Cantio or who's another guy that's a young guy for them. Slade Saccone. Slade Saccone, yeah.

I'm excited about both in long term, but Tristan McKenzie's out of options. And in the sort of monkey-sphere politics aspect of this, he used to have a rotation spot, so I think they give him, it's a little bit like Mize, hey, you get one more shot. I have a note for the Royals that says one spot for Bubich, Marsh, and Stripling, and then a bunch of Zs.

What does these Zs mean? I didn't put those Zs in, did you? I put the Zs in, yeah, because I don't care. I think boobich is good. I think he's interesting. Yeah. So I guess he's lowdom, too. He has a thing for the astros where he says

it's Wesnensky, Gordon, or Gusto, which is fun to say, but I don't think that's a battle. And do you think that there's a real battle in Angel's camp between Detmers, Dana, and Kohanowitz? Kohanowitz, the Velo is up a little bit, and he has slightly more strikeouts than usual, which is usually almost none. Kaden Dana I've actually watched twice, and he does have a good slider, but I do get real

like young Detmers vibes. And he's been knocked around, and I'm not sure the fastball has good shape. but I do get real young Detmers vibes. He's been knocked around, and I'm not sure the fastball has good shape. If I'm looking at this and I'm the Angels, it's a little bit like my's too. It's like give Detmers one last shot. If it doesn't work out,

then we can go and start going through the other ones. Then we start getting the, Reed Detmers gets traded somewhere else and maybe gets fixed by a different organization or something along the way. The other one that I thought was interesting before we go is Atlanta. Who's the number five starter until Spencer Strider's back? Is it Ian Anderson? Is it AJ Smith-Shover? Is it Bryce Elder? Like who do you think takes

that spot temporarily? Because it would fit into the might be good enough to keep a spot if someone else gets hurt before Strider's back or once Strider's back. Is there somebody you're already saying that's in, who's their fourth starter? Because Becker has Sale, Ronaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwalmbach has Locke's. Who are you putting for? That would be Grant Holmes.

Yeah, okay. Ian Anderson is out of options. And I hate to harp on this, but the Braves, the Braves are not the kind of team that are just gonna let Ian Anderson go. You wouldn't think. I mean, they that are just gonna let Ian Anderson go you wouldn't think I mean They really have they tried reliever Ian Anderson yet. I guess they could try it I'm not sure it's gonna go great, but I think that's not one other way

I'll just just make him the long guy. I watched Smith Schaver yesterday, and I'm gonna see if I can get this off of savant to but Smith Schaver looked like he was throwing a tighter breaking ball. Like he's been kind of in a search for a good slider because he has that big curve ball. I'm not going to get any pitch type information. Thank you, spring training. Was he trying to throw, did he think it looked like a gyro? Either it was a gyro or a cutter and it looked okay.

It looked pretty good. He even threw one middle middle that a hitter swung at and fouled it off and was kind of like annoyed that they felt it off, which either way, right? It's like either they felt like, Oh, that was an easy pitch. I should have slammed or, or, you know, or it was actually a pretty good pitch in terms of what's happening this spring. You know, you've got Smith Schaver with four innings Bryce Elder with seven innings Ian Anderson with two starts at one nine three ERA, but one strikeout and four and two thirds

I still think it's it's doing enough to to start the role to start the season as the fifth starter So I don't see that as too much of a battle. I did have one last one I wanted to hit real quick. Oh, Rangers, Rangers. Ivaldi, DeGrom, Gray, and Malley, if that's the four, they only have one spot for Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning, Kumar Rocker, and Jack Leiter. Now, let me see if I have any fastball numbers on Mali because he did not get his stuff back last year

I do have fastball numbers on Mali. He is 91-1 So he still hasn't gotten the stuff back. So there is a little bit of daylight there I think for Texas where Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker can make it and Tyler Malley goes to the pen or maybe he is injured. So anyway that's something to watch. I don't know if it's a battle per se. And the Rangers could, I don't know if they'd release Malley, I think there may be like

a shadow IL thing situation where like, oh oh, he's not good. It's not he has something's barking but the Rangers I think there's some pressure on them to be better this year You know, they have spent a lot I think they will be but it's been a lot of money and they've they've won they won the title, right? But would you also want to like put Kumar Rocker out there? Probably. Yes want to like put Kumar Rocker out there? Probably, yes. But that goes back into the roster politics and options and who's making money and who's not and those things at the beginning of the season I think can still be factors as well. But yeah man, it's interesting. A lot of good battles out there. I mean I think the Padres, Kyle Hart, Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez for the number five starter,

at least for home streamers in deeper leagues, that one's worth watching. It It is surprising as the D backs get further into camp and they're still healthy Ryan Nelson Just looks like an odd man out for the rotation because they've got Burns gallon Merrill Kelly Erod Brandon fought as they're starting five so Nelson to the pen or Nelson to triple-a seems like that's the the plan for them So there's some there's some surprises right now, and I say that I'm like well Kind of want to know why Kyle Hart hasn't pitched yet. He signed pretty late, so I don't know. Maybe it's got something to do with that.

But three weeks before opening day, a lot of stuff can still go wrong as far as guys just tweaking stuff and needing to open the year on the IL. So what looks like a healthy depth chart right now might not be healthy once we get to the games that count. You know what we're in right now? It's a little bit of a weird spot.

It's like we've done all the sort of pre-spring training prep work. You know what we're in right now? It's a little bit of a weird spot. It's like, we've done all the like, the sort of pre spring training prep work. We're in the April training, which is like, it's too early. Like I have tried to like look at some results and stuff. It's too early to look at a lot of that stuff. Like you've been making fun of me for looking at it. It was a foul ball on the change ups. But like, but it's like, we are getting some information

and so we have to like kind of try and look at it. April is always the toughest month of the season for me for that reason, because it's too early to make decisions on a lot of things, but you have to look. And you know, one of my biggest April tools is Stuff Plus, which is not available to us in a lot of ways. I am trying to work on getting Spring Training Stuff plus numbers out there to subscribers on the Google Doc and for you guys to listen here.

So that's part of it. But even if we have that, it won't be complete because we don't get data from, I don't know. Most of Florida and parks in Arizona. Yeah, it's a bit of a frustrating thing. On our way out the door, a couple reminders. We got a pitcher breakout piece that you dropped this week, right?

Oh yeah, six breakout pitchers. Yeah, should deep league hitters are coming out soon. Nice, my top 300 hitters got published. That's up, so you can check out those rankings. Lots of custom tools available. TheAthletic.com slash rates and barrels gets you a subscription if you don't have one already. Just a reminder you can join the discord with the link in the show description honing in on our listener league format probably going to be a pick six contest this year we're

weighing some options for 2026 already as well so if you got ideas even for next year we'll take them good to file those away and and plan ahead as we have learned over time we should plan ahead a little bit more with some of the the non-show related stuff that we like to do because time always sneaks up on us this time of year. Thanks to Brian Smith for producing this episode. You can find us on Blue Sky, enosaris.bsky.social, on dvr.bsky.social. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Mark Lemke, dude.